Probability

PROBABILITY
&
QUEUEING THEORY
(As per SRM UNIVERSITY Syllabus)
Dr. P. GodhandaRaman
Assistant Professor
Department of Mathematics
Faculty of Engineering & Technology
SRM University, Kattankulathur – 603 203
Email : [email protected], Mobile : 9941740168
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Dr. P. Godhandaraman, Assistant Professor, Dept of Maths, SRM University, Kattankulathur, Mobile: 9941740168, Email: [email protected]
15MA207 – PROBABILITY AND QUEUEING THEORY
UNIT – 3: TESTING OF HYPOTHESIS
Syllabus
• Large Sample Test (Z - Test) – Mean, Proportion
• t – Test
• F - Test
• Chi – Square Test – Goodness of Fit, Independent Attributes
Samples
> 30 < 30
Large Sample Small Sample
Z – Test − F - Test −
Single Difference Single Difference Goodness Independent Single Difference

Mean Mean Proportion Proportion of Fit Attributes Mean Mean
STATISTICS BASIC DEFINITIONS

Population: The word population or Universe in statistics is used to refer to any collection of individuals.
The population may be finite or infinite. For example, we may have population of height, weight, ages, etc.
Sample : A finite subset of a population is called a sample.
Sample size: The number of elements in a sample is called the sample size.
Sampling : The process of selection of such samples is called sampling.
For example, a housewife normally tests the cooked products to find if they are properly cooked and
contain the proper quantity of salt.
Parameters : The statistical constants of the population such as the mean, the variance etc, are known as
the parameters.
Statistics : The statistical concepts of the sample computed from the members or observation of the sample
to estimate the parameters of the population from which the sample has been drawn are known as statistics.
referred by ̅ and .
Population mean and variance are normally referred by and while the sample mean and variance are
Sampling Distribution : If we draw a sample of size from a given finite population of size then the
= =
!
! !
total number of possible sample is . .
Standard Error (S.E.) : The standard deviation of sampling distribution of a statistic is known as its
standard error.
Test of Significance : A very important aspect of the sampling theory is the study of tests of significance
which enable us to decide on the basis of the sample results if
(i) The deviation between the observed sample statistic and the hypothetical parameter value is
significant.
: There is no significant difference between the sample statistic and the

(ii) The deviation between two sample statistics is significant.
Null Hypothesis
corresponding population parameter or between two sample statistics is called Null Hypothesis.
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Alternate Hypothesis ! : A hypothesis that is different from the null hypothesis.
Two Tailed : "# : = # , "% : ≠ # ,
One Tailed : "# ∶ = # , "% : > # (Right Tailed), "% : < # (Left Tailed)
Error in Sampling: The main aim of the sampling theory is to draw a valid conclusion or a valid inference
about the population parameters on the basis of the sample results.
For example, the mother at home tests the cooked products by taking and testing a small amount of cooked
Type I Error : Reject "# when it is true. Type II Error : Accept "# when it is wrong.
product. If this small amount of cooked product is good, we accept the lot to be good.
Critical Region : A region, corresponding to a statics (, in the sample space S which amounts to rejection
of the null hypothesis "# is called as critical region or region of rejection. The region of the sample space S
which amounts to the acceptance "# is called acceptance region.
Level of Significance : The probability ) that a random value of the statistic ( belongs to the critical region
is known as the level of significance. In other words, level of significance is the size of the Type I error.
The levels of significance usually employed in testing of hypothesis are 5% and 1%.
If the size of the sample > 30, then that sample is called large sample. If is large, the distributions,
LARGE SAMPLES
such as Binomial, Poisson, chi – square etc., are closely approximated by normal distributions. There are 4
important test to test the significance of large samples.
1. Test of significance for single proportion
2. Test of significance for difference of proportions
3. Test of significance for single mean
4. Test of significance for difference of means
1. Set up the null hypothesis "# .

PROCEDURE FOR TESTING OF HYPOTHESIS
2. Set up the alternative hypothesis "% .

This will enable us to decide whether we have to use a single tailed (right or left) test or two tailed test.
3. Choose the appropriate level of significance (either 5% or 1% level). This is to be decided before
sample is drawn.
Compute the test statistics * =
+ , +
-, +
4. under the null hypothesis.
5. We compare the computed value of * in step (4) with the tabulated value *. at given level of
significance ).
If the calculated value of / is less than tabulated value *. then "# accepted.
If the calculated value of / is greater than tabulated value *. then "# rejected.
Critical Value 01 of 0 :
Level of Significance 1
Critical Value 01
!% . ! 4% . 4
|/. | = 2.58 |/. | = 1.96
/. = 2.33 /. = 1.645
Two Tailed Test
/. = −2.33 /. = −1.645
Right Tailed Test
One Tailed Test
SINGLE PROPORTION
Suppose a large sample of size is taken from a normal population. To test the significant difference
between the sample proportion = and the population proportion >, we use the statistic 0 =
? @
@B
A
Note :
The probable limits for the observed proportion of successes = are given by > ± *. A .
DE
1.
3
If P is not known, the limits for the population proportion P are given by = ± *. A where H = 1 −
FG
2.
=.
3. If ) is not given, we can take safely 3 limits. Hence, confidence limits for observed proportion = are
> ± 3A and confidence limits for the population proportion P are = ± 3A where H = 1 − =.
DE FG
95% confidence limits for population proportion P are given by = ± 1.96A where H = 1 − =
FG
99% confidence limits for population proportion P are given by = ± 2.58A where H = 1 − =
FG
PROBLEMS IN SINGLE PROPORTION

Two Tailed Test
1. A coin is tossed 256 times and 132 heads are obtained. Would you conclude that the coin is a biased
Solution: = 256, I = Number of success = 132

one?
= = proportion of successes in the sample = = = 0.5156

[ %\
]^
> = populatin proportion = = 0.5, _ = 1 − > = 0.5
%
Null Hypothesis "# ∶ The coin is unbiased.

Alternative Hypothesis "% : The coin is biased. > ≠ 0.5 (two tailed test)
Test statistics * = = = 0.4992 , |*| = 0.4992 < 1.96
F D #.]%]^ #.]
à
A A c.d c.d
b edf
We accept the hypothesis at 5% level of significance. Hence the coin is unbiased and "# is accepted.
2. In a city, a sample of 1000 people were taken & out of them 540 are vegetarians & the rest are non
vegetarians. Can we say that both habits of eating are equally popular in the city at 1% & 5% level of
Solution: = 1000, = = sample proportion of vegetarians = %### = 0.54

]i#
significance?
> = populatin proportion of vegetarians = = 0.5, _ = 1 − > = 0.5

%
"# ∶ > = 0.5 Both habits are equally popular in the city).
"% : > ≠ 0.5 (two tailed test)
Test statistics * = = = 2.5298
F D #.]i #.]
à
A A c.d c.d
b jccc
|*| = 2.5298 < 2.58, "# accepted at 1% level of significance.

|*| = 2.5298 > 1.96, "# rejected at 5% level of significance.
(i)
(ii)
Both types of eaters are popular at 1% level and not so at 5% level of significance.
3. A die is thrown 180 times. Getting 3 or 4 is considered a success. If the number of successes in any
Solution: = 180, = = proportion of sample for success = =

k# i
particular experiment is 80, find whether this excess is due to fluctuations of sampling.
%k# l
> = Probability of success = = , _ = 1 − > =
%
^ \ \
Null Hypothesis "# ∶ The die is unbiased.
Alternative Hypothesis "% : The die is biased. o> ≠ \p (two tailed test)
%
Test statistics * = = 3.1623 , |*| = 3.1623 > 2.58

F D
à
A
b
We reject the hypothesis at 1% level of significance. Hence the die is biased and "# is rejected. The excess
is not due to fluctuations but it is due to biased nature of die.
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4. Experience has shown that 20 per cent of a manufactured product is of top quality. In one day
production of 400 articles, only 50 are of top quality. Show that either the production of the day chosen
was not a representative sample or the hypothesis of 20 per cent was wrong. Based on the particular
Solution: = 400, = = proportion of top quality products in the sample = i## = k

]# %
days production, find also the 95% confidence limits for the percentage of top quality products.
> = 20% of the prodcts manufactured is of top quality = , _ = 1 − > =

% i
] ]
Null Hypothesis "# ∶ > = , Alternative Hypothesis "% : > ≠ (two tailed test)
% %
] ]
Test statistics * = = −3.75 , |*| = 3.75 > 1.96 , "# is rejected.
F D
à
A
b
95% confidence limits for P are given by = ± 1.96A

FG
j y j y
− 1.96A ≤ > ≤ + 1.96A

o × p o × p
= − 1.96A ≤ > ≤ = + 1.96A ⇒
FG FG % w w % w w
k i## k i##
0.093 ≤ > ≤ 0.157 , 95% confidence limits for the percentage of top quality product are 9.3 and 15.7.
Right Tailed Test
5. A salesman in a departmental store claims that at most 60% of the shoppers entering the store leaves
without making a purchase. A random sample of 50 shoppers showed that 35 of them left without
making a purchase. Are these sample results consistent with the claim of the salesman? Use a level of
Solution: = 50, = = sample proportions of shoppers not making a purchase = ]# = 0.7

\]
significance of 0.05.
> = populatin proportions of shoppers not making a purchase = 60% = %## = 0.6, _ = 1 − > = 0.4
^#
Null Hypothesis "# ∶ = = >, Alternative Hypothesis "% : = > > (right tailed test)
Test statistics * = = = 1.443, |*| = 1.443,
F D #.| #.^
à
A A c.f c.}
b dc
*. = 1.645 at 5% level of significance, |*| < *. , "# is accepted.

That is, the sample results are consistent with the claim of the salesman.
6. 20 people were attacked by a disease and only 18 survived. Will you reject the hypothesis that the
survival rate, if attacked by this disease, is 85% in favour of the hypothesis that it is more, at 5% level?
Solution: = 20, = = proportion of persons survived in the sample = = 0.9

%k
(Use large sample test)
#
> = proportion of persons survived after attack by a disease in the lot = 85% = 0.85,
_ = 1 − > = 0.15
Null Hypothesis "# ∶ > = 0.85, Alternative Hypothesis "% : > > 0.95 (right tailed test)
Test statistics * = = = 0.633 , |*| = 0.633,
F D #.l #.k]
à
A A c.wd c.jd
b ec
*. = 1.645 at 5% level of significance, |*| < *. , "# is accepted

7. In a big city 325 men out of 600 men were found to be smokers. Does this information support the
Solution: = 600, = == ^## = 0.5417

\ ]
conclusion that the majority of men in this city are smokers?
> = Population proportion of smokers in the city = 0.5, _ = 1 − > = 0.15

Null Hypothesis "# ∶ > = 0.5, Alternative Hypothesis "% : > > 0.5 (right tailed test)
Test statistics * = = = 2.04 , *. = 1.645 at 5% level of significance,
F D #.]i%| #.]
à
A A c.d c.d
b fcc
|*| > *. , "# is rejected. *. = 2.33 at 1% level of significance, |*| < *. , "# is accepted
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Left Tail Test
8. A manufacturer claimed that at least 95% of its products supplied confirms to the specifications. Out of
Solution: = 200, = = proportion of products con~irming to speci~ications =

a sample of 200 numbers, 18 are defective. Test the claim at 5% level of significance.
## %k %k
= = 0.91
## ##
l]
> = population proportion = = 0.95, _ = 1 − > = 0.05
%##
Null Hypothesis "# ∶ > = 0.95, Alternative Hypothesis "% : > < 0.95. (Left tailed test)
F D #.l% #.l]
Test statistics * = = = −2.596
à
A A c.•d c.cd
b ecc
|*| = 2.596 > 1.645

"# is rejected and "% is accepted at 5% level of significance.
9. The fatality rate of typhoid patients is believed to be 17.26 per cent. In a certain year 640 patients
suffering from typhoid were treated in a metropolitan hospital and only 63 patients died. Can you
consider the hospital efficient?
^\
= 640, = = = 0.0984, > = 0.1726, _ = 1 − > = 0.8274
î#
Solution:
Null Hypothesis "# ∶ = = >, i.e. The hospital is not efficient.
Alternative Hypothesis "% : = < >. (Left tailed test)
F D #.#lki #.%| ^
Test statistics * = = = −4.96
à
A A c.jyef c.wey}
b f}c
|*| = 4.96 > −2.33 , "# is rejected and "% is accepted at 1% level of significance.
The hospital is efficient in bringing down the fatality rate of typhoid patients.
Confidence Limits for the Population Proportion
10. A random sample of 500 toys was taken from a large consignment and 65 were found to be defective.
Find the percentage of defective toys in the consignment.
^]
Solution: = 500, = = ]## = 0.13, H = 1 − = = 0.87
Confidence Limits for the Population Proportion P are given by
FG #.%\×#.k|
> = = ± 3A = 0.13 ± 3A = 0.175 € • 0.085
]##
The percentage of defective toys in the consignment lies between 17.5 and 8.5.
11. A biased coin was thrown 400 times and 240 heads turned up. Find the probability of throwing heads in
a single trial almost certainly lies between 0.53 and 0.67.
i#
Solution: = 400, = = = 0.6, H = 1 − = = 0.4
i##
Confidence Limits for the Population Proportion P are given by
FG #.^×#.i
> = = ± 3A = 0.6 ± 3A = 0.6735 € • 0.5265
i##
The percentage of defective toys in the consignment lies between 52.65 and 67.35.
DIFFERENCE OF PROPORTIONS
Suppose 2 large samples of sizes % and are taken respectively from 2 different populations. To test the
?! ? ! ?! ƒ ?
significant difference between the sample proportions =% and = find 0 = where @ =
A@B‚
!
ƒ
!
„ !ƒ
!
and B = ! − @.
Two Tailed Test
1. Random samples of 400 men and 600 women were asked whether they would like to have a school near
their residence. 200 men and 325 women were in favour of the proposal. Test the hypothesis that the
proportions of men and women in favour of the proposal are same, at 5% level of significance.
Solution:
## \ ]
% = 400, = 600, =% = proportion of men = = 0.5, = = proportion of women = = 0.54
i## ^##
Null Hypothesis "# ∶ =% = = , Alternative Hypothesis "% : =% ≠ = (two tailed test)
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Fj Fe j Fj ƒ e Fe
Test statistics * = , where > = = 0.525, _ = 1 − > = 0.475
j j
ADEob ƒb p jƒ e
j e
= −1.29, |*| = 1.29

#.] #.]i
*= j j
A #.] ]×#.i|] o ƒ p
}cc fcc

i.e. men and women do not differ significantly in their attitude as regards the proposal.
2. In a large city A, 20% of a random sample of 900 school boys had a slight physical defect. In another
large city B, 18.5% of a random sample of 1600 school boys had the same defect. Is the difference
Solution: % = 900, = 1600, =% = 20% = 0.2, = = 18.5% = 0.185

between the proportions significant?

Fj Fe j Fj ƒ e Fe
Test statistics * = , where > = , _ =1−>
j j
ADEob ƒb p jƒ e
j e
l##×#. ƒ %^##×#.%k] %k#ƒ l^
>= l##ƒ%^##
= ]##
= 0.1904, _ = 1 − > = 0.8096
Fj Fe #. #.%k]
*= j j
= j j
= 0.92
ADEob ƒb p A #.%l#i×#.k#l^ o ƒ p
j e •cc jfcc

Therefore, the difference between =% and = is not significant at 5% level.
3. A company has the head office at Kolkata and a branch at Mumbai. The personnel director wanted to
know if the workers at the two places would like the introduction of a new plan of work and a survey was
conducted for this purpose. Out of a sample of 500 workers at Kolkata, 62% favoured the new plan. At
Mumbai out of a sample 400 workers, 41% were against the new plan. Is there any significant difference
Solution: % = 500, = 400, =% = 62% = 0.62, = = 1 − 0.41 = 0.59

between the two groups in their attitude towards the new plan at 5% level?

Fj Fe j Fj ƒ e Fe
j j
ADEob ƒb p jƒ e
j e
Fj Fe #.^ #.]l
*= j j
= j j
= 0.917
ADEob ƒb p A #.^#|×#.\l\ o ƒ p
j e dcc }cc

Therefore, the difference between =% and = is not significant at 5% level.
Right Tailed Test
4. Out of a sample of 1000 persons were found to be coffee drinkers. Subsequently, the excise duty on
coffee was increased. After the increase in excise duty of coffee seeds, 800 people were found to take
coffee out of a sample 1200. Test whether there is any significant decrease in the consumption of coffee
after the increase in excise duty
k## k##
Solution: % = 1000, = 1200, =% = = 0.8, = = = 0.67
%### % ##
Null Hypothesis "# ∶ =% = = , Alternative Hypothesis "% : =% > = (right tailed test)
Fj Fe j Fj ƒ e Fe
j j
ADEob ƒb p jƒ e
j e
#.k #.^|
*= j j
= 6.82
A #.| |\×#. | | o ƒ p
jccc jecc
*. = 2.33 at 1% level of significance, |*| > *. , "# is rejected and "% is accepted.
That is, there is significant decrease in the consumption of tea after the increase in duty.
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5. A machine produced 20 defective units in a sample of 400. After overhauling the machine, it produced
10 defective units in a batch of 300. Has the machine improved in production due to overhauling. Test at
5% level of significance.
# %#
Solution: % = 400, = 300, =% = = 0.05, = = = 0.033
i## \##
Null Hypothesis "# ∶ =% = = , Alternative Hypothesis "% : =% > = (right tailed test)
Fj Fe j Fj ƒ e Fe
j j
ADEob ƒb p jƒ e
j e
#.#] #.#\\
*= j j
= 1.1
A #.#i |×#.l]|\ o ƒ p
}cc †cc

Left Tailed Test
6. 15.5% of a random sample of 1600 UG students were smokers, whereas 20% of a random sample of 900
PG students were smokers in a state. Can we conclude that less number of UG students are smokers
Solution: % = 1600, = 900, =% = 15.5% = 0.155, = = 20% = 0.2

than PG?
Null Hypothesis "# ∶ =% = = , Alternative Hypothesis "% : =% < = (left tailed test)
Fj Fe j Fj ƒ e Fe
j j
ADEob ƒb p jƒ e
j e
#.%]] #.
*= j j
= −2.87
A #.%|% ×#.k kk o ƒ p
jfcc •cc
*. = −1.645 at 5% level of significance, |*| > |*. | , "# is rejected and "% is accepted.
SINGLE MEAN
mean . We set up null hypothesis that there is no difference between ̅ and , where ̅ is the sample mean.
Suppose we want to test whether the given sample of size has been drawn from a population with
ˆ ‰
‡
The statistic is 0 = Š where is the standard deviation of the population.
√
ˆ ‰
‡
If the population S.D. is not known, then use the statistic 0 = where is the standard deviation of the
√
population.
Š Š
ˆ − 01
1. The limits of population mean μ are given by ‡ ˆ + 01
≤ ‰ ≤ ‡ .
Note:
√ √
• •
2. At 5% level of significance, 95% confidence limits are ̅ − 1.96 ≤ ≤ ̅ + 1.96
√ √
.
• •
3. At 1% level of significance, 99% confidence limits are ̅ − 2.58 ≤ ≤ ̅ + 2.58
√ √
.
Two Tailed Test
1. The heights of college students in a city are normally distributed with S.D. 6 cms. A sample of 100
students has mean height 158 cms. Test the hypothesis that the mean height of college students in the
city is 160 cms.
Solution: = 100, = 160, ̅ = 158, = 6
Null Hypothesis "# ∶ = 160, Alternative Hypothesis "% : ≠ 160 (two tailed test)
Ž̅ • %]k %^#
Test statistics * = • = = 3.333
^/√%##
√b
*. = 2.58 at 1% level of significance, *. = 1.96 at 5% level of significance
|*| > *. , "# is rejected at both 1% and 5% level of significance.
Right Tailed Test
2. The mean breaking strength of the cables supplied by a manufacturer is 1800 with a S.D. of 100. By a
new technique in the manufacturing process, it is claimed that the braking strength of the cable has
increased. In order to test this claim, a sample of 50 cables is tested and it is found that the mean
breaking strength is 1850. Can we support the claim at 1% level of significance?
8
Solution: = 50, = 1800, ̅ = 1850, = 100
Null Hypothesis "# ∶ ̅ = , Alternative Hypothesis "% : ̅ > (right tailed test)
Ž̅ • %k]# %k##
Test statistics * = • = %##/√]#
= 3.54
√b
That is, based on the sample data, we may support the claim of increase in breaking strength.
Left Tailed Test
3. An insurance agent has claimed that the average age of policy holders who issue through him is less
than the average for all agents which is 30.5 years. A random sample of 100 policy holders who had
issued through him gave the following age distribution.
Age 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40
No. of Persons 12 22 20 30 16
Calculate the Arithmetic mean and standard deviation of this distribution and use these values to test his
Solution: ’ = 28, ℎ = 5
claim at 5% level of significance.
= ℎ A p = 5A
” ∑ –— ] %^ ∑ –—e ∑ –— %î %^
̅ =’+ = 28 + = 28.8, −o −o p = 6.35, ≈ = 6.35
%## %## %##
‡− š
™= ›™ ›™
No. of
4
Age Mid point (x)
Persons (f)
16-20 12 18 -2 -24 48
21-25 22 23 -1 -22 22
26-30 20 28 0 0 0
31-35 30 33 1 30 30
36-40 16 38 2 32 64
Total œ=! ∑ ›™ = !6 ∑ ›™ = 164
Null Hypothesis "# ∶ = 30.5, Alternative Hypothesis "% : < 30.5 (left tailed test)
= −2.681, |*| = 2.681
Ž̅ • k.k \#.]
Test statistics * = • =
^.\]/√%##
√b
*. = −1.645 at 5% level of significance, |*| > *. , "# is rejected and "% is accepted.
Confidence Limits
4. The mean value of a random sample of 60 items was found to be 145 with a S.D. of 40. Find the 95%
confidence limits for the population mean. What size of the sample is required to estimate the population
Solution: = 60, ̅ = 145, = 40

mean within 5 of its actual value with 95% or more confidence, using the sample mean?
|• Ž̅ |
95% confidence limits for the population mean are given by •/ ≤ 1.96
√
Since the population S.D. is not given, we can approximate it by the sample S.D. therefore 95%
|• Ž̅ |
≤ 1.96
-/√
confidence limits for the population mean are given by
- - i# i#
̅ − 1.96
≤ ≤ ̅ + 1.96
⟹ 145 − 1.96 ^#
≤ ≤ 145 + 1.96
√ √ √ √^#
134.9 ≤ ≤ 155.1
>Ÿ ̅ − 5 ≤ ≤ ̅ + 5 ≥ 0.95 ⟹ >Ÿ−5 ≤ − ̅ ≤ 5 ≥ 0.95

We have to find the value of such that
>Ÿ| − ˆ | ≤ 5 ≥ 0.95 ⟹ >Ÿ| ̅ − | ≤ 5 ≥ 0.95

|Ž̅ •| ] ] ] √
>¢ ≤ £ ≥ 0.95 ⟹ > ¢|*| ≤ £ ≥ 0.95 ⟹ > ¢|*| ≤ £ ≥ 0.95
•/√ •/√ •/√ •
We know that >Ÿ|*| ≤ 1.96 ≥ 0.95 , The least value of = ¤,
] √ ¥ %.l^ • %.l^ - %.l^ ×i#
= 1.96 ⟹ √ ¤ = ⟹ √ ¤ = ⟹ ¤ =o p ⟹ ¤ = 245.86
• ] ] ]
The least size of the sample = 246
9
Let ¦¦¦% be the mean of a sample of size % from a population with mean % and variance % . Let ¦¦¦ be the
DIFFERENCE OF MEAN
To test whether there is any significant difference between ¦¦¦% and ¦¦¦ we have to use the statistic
mean of a sample of size from a population with mean and variance .
¦‡¦¦¦ ¦¦
‡¦¦
0= !
Š Š
§ !ƒ
!
Note: If the samples have been drawn from the same population then % = =
¦¦¦
Žj¦ ¦¦¦¦
Že e e
j -j ƒ e -e
*= =
jƒ e
If is not known we can use a estimate of given by
• e• e
§ jƒ e
bj be
Two Tailed Test

1. In a random sample of size 500, the mean is found to be 20. In another independent sample of size 400,
Solution: % = 500, = 400, ¦¦¦¦% = 20, ¦¦¦ = 15, = 4

the mean is 15. Could the samples have been drawn from the same population with S.D. 4?
Null Hypothesis "# ∶ ̅% = ̅ , Alternative Hypothesis "% : ̅% ≠ ̅ (two tailed test)

Ž̅ j Ž̅ e # %]
Test statistics * = j j
= j j
= 18.6
• A ƒ i A ƒ
bj be dcc }cc
That is, the samples could not have been drawn from the same population.
2. The mean of 2 large samples 1000 and 2000 members are 67.5 inches and 68.0 inches respectively. Can
Solution: % = 1000, = 2000, ¦¦¦¦% = 67.5, ¦¦¦ = 68, = 2.5

the samples the regarded as drawn from the same population of S.D. 2.5 inches.

= −5.1, |*| = 5.1
Ž̅ j Ž̅ e ^|.] ^k
Test statistics * = j j
= j j
• A ƒ .] A ƒ
bj be jccc eccc
3. In a survey of buying habits, 400 women shoppers are chosen at random in super market A located in a
certain section of the city. Their average weekly food expenditure is Rs. 250 with a S.D. of Rs. 40. For
400 women shoppers chosen at random in super market B in another section of the city, the average
weekly food expenditure is Rs. 220 with a S.D. of Rs. 55. Test at 1% level of significance whether the
Solution: % = 400, = 400, ¦¦¦¦% = 250, ¦¦¦ = 220, % = 40, = 55

average weekly food expenditure of the two populations of shopper are equal.

Ž̅ j Ž̅ e
Test statistics* = , Since % & the population S.D. are not known,
•e •e
§ j ƒ e
bj be
Ž̅ j Ž̅ e ]# #
we can take % = % € • = , Test statistics * = = e e
= 8.82
• e •e A}c ƒdd
§ j ƒ e }cc }cc
bj be
Right Tailed Test
4. The average marks scored by 32 boys is 72 with a S.D. of 8, while that for 36 girls is 70 with a S.D. of 6.
Test at 1% level of significance whether the boys perform better than girls.
Solution: % = 32, = 36, ¦¦¦¦% = 72, ¦¦¦ = 70, % = 8, = 6
Null Hypothesis "# ∶ ̅% = ̅ ©ª % = , Alternative Hypothesis "% : ̅% > ̅ (right tailed test)
Ž̅ j Ž̅ e | |#
Test statistics * = = f} †f
= 1.15
• e •e A ƒ
§ j ƒ e †e †f
bj be
*. = 2.33 at 1% level of significance

|*| < *. , "# is accepted. That is, we cannot conclude that boys perform better than girls.
10
SMALL SAMPLES < 30
• t – test
•
− «¬- ®¯°±² −
F – test
•
Students ‘t’ – Test - SINGLE MEAN
ˆ ‰
‡ ∑b́µj Ž´
= , where ̅ =
o p
Standard deviation given directly: ,
√ ³!
̅ - sample mean, – population mean, – sample size, – sample variance
ˆ ‰
‡ ∑-µ! ‡- ˆ
‡
= ® , where ® =
o p !
Standard deviation not given directly:
√
̅ - sample mean, – population mean, – sample size, ¶ – population variance
Degree of freedom : − !
DIFFERENCE MEAN
ˆ ·
‡ ˆ ∑b́µj Ž´ ∑b
ºµj ¹º
= ! !
, where ˆ = , ¸
ˆ=
A® ‚ ƒ „
!
» j -je ƒ e -ee ¼
=
jƒ e
Standard deviation given directly:
∑ Ž Ž̅ e ƒ ∑ ¹ ¹¦ e
=
jƒ e
! + −
Confidence or Fiducial Limits for ‰:
Degree of freedom :
½ ½
95% Confidence limits for μ : ̅ − (#.#] o p ≤ ≤ ̅ + (#.#] o p
√ √
½ ½
99% Confidence limits for μ : ̅ − (#.#% o p ≤ ≤ ̅ + (#.#% o p
√ √
Application of t – distribution:
(i) To test if the sample mean ̅ differs significantly from the hypothetical value μ of the population mean.
The t – distribution has a wide number of applications in statistics, some of which are enumerated below
(ii) To test the significance of the difference between two sample means.
(iii) To test the significance of an observed sample correlation coefficient and sample regression coefficient
(iv) To test the significance of observed partial correlation coefficient.
Assumption for students’s t – test
(i) The parent population from which the sample is drawn is normal.
(ii) The sample observations are independent, that is, the sample is random.
(iii) The population standard deviation is unknown.
PROBLEMS
Students ‘t’ – Test : Single Mean and Standard Deviation Given Directly
1. The mean weekly sales of soap bars in departmental stores was 146.3 bars per store. After an advertising
campaign the mean weekly sales in 22 stores for a typical week increased to 153.7 and showed a S.D. of
Solution: = 22, ̅ = 153.7, = 146.3 , = 17.2

17.2. Was the advertising campaign successful?
Null Hypothesis ∶ = 146.3, i.e. The advertising campaign is not successful.

Alternate Hypothesis ! : > 146.3 (Right tailed)
Ž̅ • %]\.\ %i^.\
(= • = jy.e = 9.03, degree of freedom: n − 1 = 21 at 5% level of significance = 1.72.
o p o p
√b³j √ee³j
Calculate value t > Tabulated t. ¾ is rejected.

Conclusion: The advertising campaign was definitely successful in promoting sales.
2. A sample of 20 items has mean 42 units and S.D. 5 units. Test the hypothesis that it is a random sample
Solution: = 20, ̅ = 42, = 45, = 5

from a normal population with mean 45 units.
Null Hypothesis ∶ = 45 , Alternate Hypothesis ! : ≠ 45 (Two tailed)

11
Ž̅ • i i]
(= • = d = 2.615, degree of freedom: n − 1 = 19 at 5% level of significance = 2.09.
o p o p
√b³j √ec³j
Calculate value t > Tabulated t. ¾ is rejected. The sample could not have come from this population.
3. A spare part manufacturer is making spare parts with axle diameter of 0.700 inch. A random sample of
10 parts shows a mean diameter of 0.742 inch with a S.D. of 0.040 inch. Verify whether the work
Solution: = 10, ̅ = 0.742, = 0.700, = 0.040

satisfies the specifications.
Null Hypothesis ∶ = 0.700 , Alternate Hypothesis ! : ≠ 0.700 (Two tailed)

Ž̅ • #.|i #.|##
(= • = c.c}c = 3.15, degree of freedom: n − 1 = 9 at 5% level of significance = 2.26.
o p o p
√b³j √jc³j
Calculate value t > Tabulated t. ¾ is rejected. Conclusion: The product is not meeting the specifications.
4. The mean life time of a sample of 25 bulbs is found as 1550 hours with a S.D. of 120 hours. The
company manufacturing the bulbs claims that the average life of their bulbs is 1600 hours. Is the claim
Solution: = 25, ̅ = 1550, = 1600, = 120

acceptable at 5% level of significance?
Null Hypothesis ∶ ̅ = , Alternate Hypothesis ! : ̅ < (Left Tailed)

Ž̅ • %]]# %^##
(= • = jec = −2.04, degree of freedom: n − 1 = 24 at 5% level of significance = 1.71.
o p o p
√b³j √ed³j
Calculate value t > Tabulated t. ¾ is rejected. The claim of the company cannot be accepted at 5% LOS.
5. A certain injection administered to each of 12 patients resulted in the following increases of blood
pressure (B.P.) 5, 2, 8, -1, 3, 0, 6, -2, 1, 5, 0, 4. Can it be concluded that the injection will be in general
Solution: = 12
accompanied by an increase in B.P.?
Null Hypothesis : ̅ = , where = 0, that is, the injection will not result in increase in B.P.
Alternate Hypothesis ! : ̅> (Right tailed)
∑b́µj Ž´ \% ∑ Že ∑Ž %k]
̅= = = 2.58, = −o p = − 2.58 = 8.76 ⟹ = 2.96
% %
Ž̅ • .]k #
(= • = e.•f = 2.89 , Degree of freedom: n − 1 = 12 − 1 = 11 at 5% level of significance = 1.80.
o p o p
√b³j √je³j
Calculate value t > Tabulated t. ¾ is rejected. The injection is accompanied by an increase in B.P.
Students ‘t’ – Test : Single Mean and Standard Deviation Not Given Directly
6. A random sample of 10 boys had the following I.Q.’s 70, 120, 110, 101, 88, 83, 95, 98, 107, 100. Do these
date support the assumption of a population mean I.Q.’s of 100? Find a reasonable range in which most
of the mean I.Q. values of samples of 10 boys lie.
Solution: = 10, = 100, : = 100, ! : ≠ 100 (Two tail)
∑b́µj Ž´ l| ∑b́µj Ž´ Ž̅ e %k\\.^
̅= = %#
= 97.2, ¶ = %
= %# %
= 203.73
= −0.62 ⇒ | | = . Ä
Ž̅ • l|. %## .k
(= ¿ = =Â
o p ec†.y† √ #.\|\Ã
√b ÀA Á
jc
‡ ‡−‡ ˆ ‡−ˆ ‡
70 -27.2 739.84
120 22.8 519.84
110 12.8 163.84
101 3.8 14.44
88 -9.2 84.64
83 -14.2 201.64
95 -2.2 4.84
98 0.8 0.64
107 9.8 96.04
∑ ‡ = 972 ∑ ‡−‡
ˆ =1833.60
100 2.8 7.84
12
d.f.= n − 1 = 10 − 1 = 9 at 5% LOS = 2.262. Calculate value t < Tabulated t. ¾ is accepted.
Conclusion: The data are consistent with the assumption for a mean I.Q. of 100 in population.
½ ½
95% Confidence Limits for ‰: ̅ − (#.#] o p ≤ ≤ ̅ + (#.#] o p
√ √
#\.|\ #\.|\
97.2 − 2.262 ÀA %#
Á≤ ≤ 97.2 + 2.262 ÀA %#
Á
86.99 ≤ ≤ 107.41, Hence the required 95% confidence interval is [86.99, 107.41].
7. The wages of 10 workers taken at random from a factory are given as Wages: 578, 572, 570, 568, 572,
578, 570, 572, 596, 584. Is it possible that the mean wage of all workers of this factory could be Rs. 580
Solution: = 10, = 580, : = 580, ! : ≠ 580 (Two tailed)
∑b́µj Ž´ ]|^# ∑b́µj Ž´ Ž̅ e ^]^
̅= = = 576, ¶ = = = 72.89
%# % %# %
= −1.48 ⇒ | | = !. Çš
Ž̅ • ]|^ ]k# i
(= ¿ = =Â
o p ye.w• √|. klÃ
√b ÀA Á
jc
Degree of freedom: n − 1 = 10 − 1 = 9 at 5% level of significance for two tailed test = 2.262.

‡ ‡−‡ ˆ ‡−‡ ˆ
578 2 4
572 -4 16
570 -6 36
568 -8 64
572 -4 16
578 2 4
570 -6 36
572 -4 16
596 20 400
584 8 64
∑ ‡ = 5760 ∑ ‡−‡
ˆ =656
Calculate value t < Tabulated t. ¾ is accepted.
Conclusion: Is it possible that the mean wage of all workers of this factory could be Rs. 580.
Students ‘t’ – Test : Difference Mean and Standard Deviation Given Directly
8. Sample of two types of electric light bulbs were tested for length of life and following data were obtained
Type I Type II
! =š =È
¦¦¦ ¦¦¦ = ! ÉÄ ¬²
Sample Number
Sample Means ‡! = ! ÉÇ ¬² ‡
Sample S.D. ! = ÉÄ ¬² = Ç ¬²
Is the difference in the means sufficient to warrant that type I is superior to type II regarding length of
life
: "# : ¦¦¦ ¦¦¦ , i.e. The two types I and II of electric bulbs are identical.
‡! = ‡
Solution:
Alternate Hypothesis : "% : ¦¦¦ ¦¦¦ (Right tail)

‡! > ‡
Null Hypothesis
» j -je ƒ e -ee ¼ »k \^ e ƒ| i# e ¼
= = = 1659.08
jƒ e kƒ|
Standard deviation given directly:
¦¦¦¦
Žj ¦Ž¦¦¦ % \i %#\^
(= j
e
j
= j j
= 9.39, degree of freedom = n% + n − 2 = 3 at 5% level of significance
A½e o ƒ p A%^]l.#k o ƒ p
bj be w y
for right tailed test = 1.77. Calculate value t > Tabulated t. ¾ is rejected.
Conclusion: The type I is definitely superior to type II regarding length of life.
9. The following table gives the values of protein form cow’s milk and buffalo’s milk. Examine if these
difference are significant.
Cow’s Milk 1.90 1.95 2.00 2.02 1.85 1.80
Buffalo’s Milk 2.12 2.00 2.20 2.45 2.20 2.10
13
Solution: % = 6, = 6, Null Hypothesis : "# : ‰! = ‰ , Alternate Hypothesis : "% : ‰! ≠ ‰
∑ Žj %%.] ∑ Že %\.#| ∑ Žje ∑ Žj .%^
¦¦¦% = = = 1.92, ¦¦¦ = = = 2.178, % = −o p = − 1.92 = 0.0062
j ^ e ^ j j ^
∑ Žee ∑ Že » - e ƒ -e ¼
k.]l ¦Ž¦¦j¦ ¦¦¦¦
Že
= −o p = − 2.178 = 0.0194 , ¶ = j j e e
,(=
e e ^ jƒ e A½ e o
j j
ƒ p
bj be
¦¦¦¦
Žj ¦¦¦
Že¦ %.l .%k
(= = = 3.64, since % = = , d.f.= = 10 at 5% LOS = 2.33. ¾ is rejected.
•e Ê•e c.ccfeÊc.cj•}
A j e A
b³j f³j
Students ‘t’ – Test : Difference Mean and Standard Deviation Not Given Directly
10. Below are given the gain in weights (in kgs) of pigs fed on two diets A and B.
Diet A 25 32 30 34 24 14 32 24 30 31 35 25 - - -
Diet B 44 34 22 10 47 31 40 30 32 35 18 21 35 29 22
Test if the two diets differ significantly as regards their effect on increase in weight.
‡ ‡−‡ ˆ · ·−· ˆ
Solution:
‡−‡ ˆ ·−· ˆ
25 -3 9 44 196 14
32 4 16 34 16 4
30 2 4 22 64 -8
34 6 36 10 400 -20
24 -4 16 47 289 17
14 -14 196 31 1 1
32 4 16 40 100 10
24 -4 16 30 0 0
30 2 4 32 4 2
31 3 9 35 25 5
35 7 49 18 144 -12
25 -3 9 21 81 -9
35 25 5
∑ ‡ = ÉÉÄ ∑ ‡−‡ ˆ = Éš0
29 1 -1
∑ · = Ç4
∑ ·−· ˆ =
22 64 -8
Null Hypothesis : "# : ¦¦¦ ¦¦¦ , i.e. There is no significant difference between the mean
‡! = ‡ !Ç! increase in
weight due to diets A and B, Alternate Hypothesis : "% : ¦¦¦ ¦¦¦ (Two tailed)
‡! ≠ ‡
∑b́µj Ž´ \\^ ∑b
ºµj ¹º i]#
% = 12, = 15, ˆ = = = 28, ¸
ˆ= = = 30
% %]
∑ Ž Ž̅ eƒ ∑ ¹ ¹¦ e
= = 71.6
jƒ e
= −0.609 ⇒ | | = . Ä Ë, d.f.=
Ž̅ ¹¦ k \#
(= j j
= j j % + − 2 = 25 at 5% LOS = 2.06.
A½e o ƒ p A|%.^ o ƒ p
bj be je jd

Conclusion: The two diets do not differ significantly as regards their effect on increase in weight.
11. A group of five patients treated with medicine A weigh 42, 39, 48, 60 and 41 kg.; a second group of 7
patients from the same hospital treated with medicine B weigh 38, 42, 56, 64, 68, 69 and 62 kg. Do you
agree with the claim that medicine B increases the weight significantly?
‡ ‡−‡ ˆ · ·−· ˆ
Solution:
‡−‡ ˆ ·−· ˆ
42 -4 16 38 -19 361
39 -7 49 42 -15 225
48 2 4 56 -1 1
60 14 196 64 7 49
41 -5 25 68 11 121
∑‡ = É ∑ ‡−‡
ˆ = Ë
69 12 144
∑ · = ÉËË ∑ ·−·
ˆ =Ë Ä
62 5 25
14
Null Hypothesis : "# : ‰! = ‰ , Alternate Hypothesis : "% : ‰! < ‰
∑b́µj Ž´ \# ∑b
ºµj ¹º \ll
% = 5, = 7, ˆ = = = 46, ¸
ˆ= = = 57
] |
∑ Ž Ž̅ e ƒ ∑ ¹ ¹¦ e l#ƒl ^ % %^
= = = = 121.6
jƒ e ]ƒ| %#
= −1.703 ⇒ | | = !. È É, d.f.=
Ž̅ ¹¦ i^ ]| i^ ]| %%
(= = = = % + − 2 = 10 at 5%
j j
A½e o ƒ p
j j √i%.^l ^.i^
bj be
A% %.^ o ƒ p
d y
LOS = 1.81. Calculate value t < Tabulated t. ¾ is accepted.

Conclusion: Medicines A and B do not differ significantly as regards their effect an increase in weight.
F – Test
® ®
Ì = ®Í , if ®Í > ®Î (or) Ì = ®Î , if ®Í < ®Î ,
Î Í
∑ ‡ ˆ
‡ ∑ · ·
ˆ ! !
®Í = , ®Î = , ®! = , ® = , degree of freedom : Ï! = ! − !, Ï = −! .
! ! ! ! ! !
Applications
1. To test whether two independent samples have been drawn from the normal populations with the same
variance .
2. To test whether two independent estimates of the population variance are homogeneous or not.
PROBLEMS
1. If one sample of 8 observations the sum of the squares of deviations of the sample values from the
sample mean was 84.4 and in the other sample of 10 observations it was 102.6. Test whether this
Solution: % = 8, = 10, ∑ − ̅ = 84.4 , ∑ ¸ − ¸¦ = 102.6

difference is significant at 5% level.
Null Hypothesis : "# : [ = Ð , Alternate Hypothesis : "% : [ ≠ Ð

∑ Ž Ž̅ e ∑ ¹ ¹¦ e e
ki.i %# .^ ½Ò % .#]|
¶[ = =k = 12.057, ¶Ð = = = 11.4, Ñ = ½Óe
= = 1.057 ,
j % % e % %# % %%.i
d.f. = % − 1, − 1 = 7, 9 at 5% LOS = 3.29. Calculate value F < Tabulated F. ¾ is accepted.
2. Two random samples of 11 and 9 items show the sample standard deviations of their weights as 0.8 and
0.5 respectively. Assuming that the weight distributions are normal, test the hypothesis that the true
Solution: % = 11, = 9, % = 0.8 , = 0.5

variances are equal, against the alternative hypothesis that they are not.

e e ½e
j -j %% #.k e e -e l #.] e #.|#i
¶% = %
= %% %
= 0.704 , ¶ = %
= l %
= 0.28125, Ñ = ½je = #. k% ]
= 2.503,
j e e
d.f. = % − 1, − 1 = 10, 8 at 5% LOS = 3.34. Calculate value F < Tabulated F. ¾ is accepted.
3. The time taken by workers in performing a job by Method I and Method II is given below
Method I 20 16 26 27 23 22 -
Method II 27 33 42 35 32 34 38
Do the data show that the variances of time distribution form population from which these samples are
drawn do not differ significantly?
∑b́µj Ž´ %\i ∑b
ºµj ¹º i%
% = 6, = 7, ˆ = = = 22.3, ¸
ˆ = = = 34.4
^ |
Solution:
j e
‡ ‡−‡ ˆ ‡−‡ ˆ · ·−· ˆ ·−· ˆ

20 -2.3 5.29 27 -7.4 54.76
16 -6.3 39.69 33 -1.4 1.96
26 3.7 13.69 42 7.6 57.76
27 4.7 22.09 35 0.6 0.36
23 0.7 0.49 32 -2.4 5.76
22 -0.3 0.09 34 -0.4 0.16
∑ ‡ = !ÉÇ ∑ ‡−‡
ˆ = š!. ÉÇ
∑ · = Ç! ∑ ·−·
ˆ = !É . È
38 3.6 12.96
15
∑ Ž Ž̅ e k%.\i ∑ ¹ ¹¦ e %\\.| ½Óe . l
¶[ = = = 16.268, ¶Ð = = = 22.29 , Ñ = e = = 1.37,
j % ^ % e % | % ½Ò %^. ^k
d.f. = − 1,− 1 = 6, 5 at 5% LOS = 4.95. Calculate value F < Tabulated F. ¾ is accepted.
%
t – test and F – Test
1. The nicotine contents in milligrams in two samples of tobacco were found to be as follows
Sample A 24 27 26 21 25 -
Sample B 27 30 28 31 22 36
Can it be said that two samples come from normal populations.
∑b́µj Ž´ % \ ∑b
ºµj ¹º %|i
% = 5, = 6, ˆ = = = 24.6, ¸
ˆ = = = 29
] ^
Solution:
j e
‡ ‡−‡ ˆ ‡−‡ ˆ · ·−· ˆ ·−· ˆ

24 -0.6 0.36 27 -2 4
27 2.4 5.76 30 1 1
26 1.4 1.96 28 -1 1
21 -3.6 12.96 31 2 4
25 0.4 0.16 22 -7 49
∑‡ = ! É ∑ ‡−‡ ˆ = !.
∑ · = !ÈÇ ∑ ·−· ˆ =! š
36 7 49
: "# : ¦¦¦ ¦¦¦ , Alternate Hypothesis : "% : ¦¦¦ ¦¦¦ (Two tailed)
Student’s t test
Null Hypothesis ‡! = ‡ ‡! ≠ ‡
= −1.92 ⇒ | | = !. Ë ,
∑ Ž Ž̅ e ƒ ∑ ¹ ¹¦ e %. ƒ%#k Ž̅ ¹¦ i.^ l
= = = 14.35, ( = =
jƒ e ]ƒ^ j
A½ e o ƒ p
j j j
A%i.\] o ƒ p
bj be d f
degree of freedom = % + − 2 = 9 at 5% LOS for two tailed test = 2.26.

F - Test
∑ Ž Ž̅ e %. ∑ ¹ ¹¦ e %#k ½Óe %.^
¶[ = = = 5.3, ¶Ð = = = 21.6 , Ñ = e = = 4.07 ,
j % ] % e % ^ % ½Ò ].\
degree of freedom = − 1, % − 1 = 5, 4 at 5% LOS = 6.26.
Calculate value F < Tabulated F. ¾ is accepted.
Conclusion: We conclude that the two samples come from same normal population.
− test
The χ distribution function is one of the most extensively used distribution functions in statistics.
Application (or uses) of distribution
1. To test the goodness of fit.
2. To test the independence of attributes.
3. To test if the hypothetical value of the population variance is σ .
4. To test the homogeneity of independent estimates of the population variance.
5. To test the homogeneity of independent estimates of the population correlation coefficient.
Condition for validity of – test
2. Constraints on the cell frequencies, if any, should be linear, e.g., ∑ Ö× = ∑ Ø×

1. The sample observations should be independent.
3. N, the total frequency should be reasonably large, say, greater than 50.
4. No theoretical cell frequency should be less than 5. ( The chi square distribution is frequency is less
than t) . If any theoretical cell frequency is less than 5, then for the application of Ù test, it is pooled
with the preceding or succeeding frequency so that the pooled frequency is more than 5 and finally
adjust for the degree of freedom lost in pooling.
16
− test of Goodness of fit
This is a powerful test for testing the significance of the discrepancy between theory and experiment
– discovered by Karl Pearson in 1900. It helps us to find if the deviation of the experiment from theory is
just by chance or it is due to the in adequacy of the theory to fit the observed data.
= ∑-Ü!
Ú- Û-
Û-
, where Ö× – set of observed frequencies, Ø× - Set of expected frequencies. d.f. = −1
1. The following table gives the number of aircraft accidents that occurred during the various days of the
week. Test whether the accidents are uniformly distributed over the week.
Days Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Solution: H# : Accidents occur uniformly over the week.

No. of Accidents 14 18 12 11 15 14
k\
Total number of accidents = 83. Based on "# , the expected number of accidents on any day = = 14.
^
Ú Û Ú−Û Ú−Û
Ú Û
Û
14 14 0 0 0
18 14 4 16 1.143
12 14 -2 4 0.286
11 14 -3 9 0.643
15 14 1 1 0.071
14 14 0 0 0
2.143
= ∑-Ü!
Ú- Û-
= . !ÇÉ , d.f. = − 1 = 6 − 1 = 5 at 5% LOS = 11.07
Û-
Calculated Ù < tabulated Ù , is accepted. The accidents are uniformly distributed over the week.
2. The theory predicts the proportion of beans, in the four groups A, B, C, and D should be 9 : 3 : 3 : 1. In
an experiment with 1600 beans the numbers in the four groups were 882, 313, 287, and 118. Does the
Solution: H# : The experimental result support the theory.

experimental result support the theory.
Ú Û
Û
9
× 1600 = 900
16
882 -18 324 0.36
3
× 1600 = 300
16
313 13 169 0.563
3
× 1600 = 300
16
287 -13 169 0.563
1
× 1600 = 100
16
118 18 324 3.24
4.726
= ∑-Ü!
Ú- Û-
= Ç. È Ä, d.f. = − 1 = 4 − 1 = 3 at 5% LOS = 7.81
Û-
Calculated Ù < tabulated Ù , is accepted. The experimental results support the theory.
3. Fit a binomial distribution for the following data and also test the goodness of fit. Find the parameters
of the distribution.
‡
›
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total
5 18 28 12 7 6 4 80
Solution : Fitting a binomial distribution means assuming that the given distribution is approximately
To find the binomial frequency distribution H + = , which fits the given data, we require , € • =.
binomial and hence finding the probability mass function and the finding the theoretical frequencies.
We assume = total frequency = 80 and = no. of trials = 6 from the given data.
Þ
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total
Þ
5 18 28 12 7 6 4 80
0 18 56 36 28 30 24 192
17
∑ –Ž %l
̅= ∑–
= k#
= 2.4 , = = 2.4 ⇒ 6= = 2.4 , = = 0.4, H = 1 − = = 0.6
Theoretical frequencies are given by N > I = = Ž =Ž H Ž , = 0,1, …
80 > I = 0 = 80 × 6 # 0.4 # 0.6 ^ # = 3.73, 80 > I = 1 = 80 × 6 % 0.4 % 0.6 ^ % = 14.93
80 > I = 2 = 80 × 6 0.4 0.6 ^ = 24.88, 80 > I = 3 = 80 × 6 \ 0.4 \ 0.6 ^ \ = 22.12
80 > I = 4 = 80 × 6 i 0.4 i 0.6 ^ i = 11.06, 80 > I = 5 = 80 × 6 ] 0.4 ] 0.6 ^ ] = 2.95
80 > I = 6 = 80 × 6 ^ 0.4 ^ 0.6 ^ ^ = 0.33
Û-
X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total
4 15 25 22 11 3 0 80
The 1st class is combined with the second and the last 2 classes are combined with the last but 2nd class in
order to make the expected frequency in each class ≥ 5. Thus, after regrouping, we have
Ú- 23 28 12 17
Û-
H# : The given distribution is approximately binomial distribution.
19 25 22 14
Ú Û
Û
23 19 4 16 0.8421
28 25 3 9 0.36
12 22 -10 100 4.5455
17 14 3 9 0.6429
6.39
= ∑-Ü!
Ú- Û-
= Ä. ÉË, d.f. = − à = 4 − 2 = 2 at 5% LOS = 5.99, Calculated Ù > tabulated Ù ,
Û-
is rejected. The binomial fit for the given distribution is not satisfactory.
4. Fit a Poisson distribution for the following distribution and also test the goodness of fit.
‡
›
0 1 2 3 4 5 Total
142 156 69 27 5 1 400
á ³â ãä
Solution : > I = = , = 0,1, … ∞
Ž!
0 1 2 3 4 5 Total
Þ 142 156 69 27 5 1 400
Þ 0 156 138 81 20 5 400
∑ –Ž i##
æ= ̅= ∑–
= = 1 , = 400
i##
á ³â ãä i## á ³j %ä
Theoretical frequencies are given by > I = = Ž!
= Ž!
, = 0,1, … ∞
i## á ³j %c i## á ³j %j
400 > I = 0 = = 147.15, 400 > I = 1 = = 147.15
#! %!
i## á ³j %e i## á ³j %†
400 > I = 2 = = 73.58 , 400 > I = 3 = = 24.53
! \!
i## á ³j %} i## á ³j %d
400 > I = 4 = = 6.13 , 400 > I = 5 = = 1.23
i! ]!
Ö× 142 156 69 27 5 1
Ø×
The last 3 classes are combined into one, so that the expected frequency in that class may be ≥ 10.
147 147 74 25 6 1
Ö× 142 156 69 33
Ø× 147 147 74 32
Ú Û
Û
142 147 -5 25 0.17
156 147 9 81 0.55
69 74 -5 25 0.34
33 32 1 1 0.03
1.09
18
= ∑-Ü!
Ú- Û-
Û-
= !. Ë, d.f. = − à = 4 − 2 = 2 at 5% LOS = 5.99,
Calculated Ù > tabulated Ù , is accepted. The Poisson fit for the given distribution is satisfactory.
− test of Independence of Attributes

Literally, an attribute means a quality or characteristic. E.g.: drinking, smoking, blindness, honesty, etc.
€ ç €+ç
è • è+•
€+è ç+•
€+è €+ç ç+• €+ç

Ø € = Ø ç = €+ç
€+è è+• ç+• è+•
Ø è = Ø • = è+•
€+è ç+•
Degree of freedom = ª − 1 è − 1 , where ª − number of rows, è − number of colums.
5. On the basis of information given below about the treatment of 200 patients suffering from a disease,
state whether the new treatment is comparatively superior to the conventional treatment.
Favourable Not Favourable Total
New 60 30 90
Conventional 40 70 110
Solution: H# : New and conventional treatment are independent.

100 100 200
90 × 100 90 × 100
Ø 60 = = 45 Ø 30 = = 45
200 200
90
110 × 100 110 × 100

Ø 40 = = 55 Ø 70 = = 55
200 200
110
100 100 200
Ú Û
Û
60 45 15 225 5
30 45 -15 225 5
40 55 -15 225 4.09
70 55 15 225 4.09
18.18
= ∑-Ü!
Ú- Û-
Û-
= !š. !š , d.f. = ª − 1 è − 1 = 2 − 1 2 − 1 = 1 at 5% LOS = 3.841.
Calculated Ù > tabulated Ù , is rejected. New and conventional treatment are not independent.
6. Given the following contingency table for hair colour and eye colour. Find the value of chi square. Is
there good association between the two.
Hair Colour
Total
Fair Brown Black
Blue 15 5 20 40
Eye Colour Grey 20 10 20 50
Brown 25 15 20 60
Solution: H# : The two attributes Hair colour and eye colour are independent.
Total 60 30 60 150
19
60 × 40 30 × 40 60 × 40
Ø 15 = = 16 Ø 5 = =8 Ø 20 = = 16
150 150 150
40
60 × 50 30 × 50 60 × 50
Ø 20 = = 20 Ø 10 = = 10 Ø 20 = = 20
150 150 150
50
60 × 60 30 × 60 60 × 60
Ø 25 = = 24 Ø 15 = = 12 Ø 20 = = 24
150 150 150
60
60 30 60 150
Ú Û
Û
15 16 -1 1 0.0625
5 8 -3 9 1.125
20 16 4 16 1
20 20 0 0 0
10 10 0 0 0
20 20 0 0 0
25 24 1 1 0.042
15 12 3 9 0.75
20 24 -4 16 0.666
3.6458
= ∑-Ü!
Ú- Û-
= É. ÄÇ4š , d.f. = ª − 1 è − 1 = 3 − 1 3 − 1 = 4 at 5% LOS = 9.488.
Û-
Calculated Ù < tabulated Ù , is accepted. The hair colour and eye colour are independent.
UNIT – 4
QUEUEING THEORY
Syllabus
• Introduction to Markovian queueing models
• Single Server Model with Infinite system capacity - é/é/1 ∶ ∞/ÑêÑÖ
• Single Server Model with Finite System Capacity – é/é/1 ∶ /ÑêÑÖ
INTRODUCTION
History : A.K.Erlang (1909) – “The Theory of probabilities and telephone conversations”.
All of us have experienced the annoyance of having to wait in line.
Example:1. We wait in line in our cars in traffic jams. 2. We wait in line of barber shops or beauty parlors.
3. We wait in line at supermarket to check out.
Why then is there waiting?
There is more demand for service that there is facility for service available.
Why is this so?
1. There may be a shortage of available servers.
2. There may be a space limit to the amount of service that can be provided.
Question : 1. How long must a customer wait? 2. How many people will form in the line?
Answer: Queuing theory attempts to answer these questions through detailed mathematical analysis.
Customer: The term ‘Customer’ is used in a general sense and does not imply necessarily a human
customer.
E.g.: 1. An Air plane waiting in line to take off. 2. A Computer program waiting to be run as a time
shared basis.
20
Characteristics of Queuing Process
1. Arrival pattern of Customers
2. Service pattern of Servers
3. Queue discipline
4. System capacity
5. Number of service channels
6. Number of service stages
1. Arrival Pattern of Customer : (i) Bulk or Batches (ii) Balked (iii) Reneged (iv) Jockey
(i) Bulk or Batches : More than one arrival can be entering the system simultaneously, the input is said to
occur in bulk or batches.
(ii) Balked : If customer decides not to enter the queue upon arrival, he is said to have balked.
(iii) Reneged : A Customer may enter the queue, but after a time lose patience and decide to leave. In this
case he is said to reneged.
(iv) Jockey : Two or more parallel waiting lines, customers may switch from one to another (i.e) Jockey
for position.
2. Service Pattern of Services
If the system is empty, the service facility is idle. Service may also be deterministic (or) probabilistic.
Service may also be single (or) batch one generally thinks of one customer being served at a time by a
given server, but there are many situations where customer may be served simultaneously by the same
server. E.g.: 1. Computer with parallel processing. 2. People boarding a train.
The service rate may depend on the number of customer waiting for service. A server may work faster if
sees that the queue is building up (or) conversely, he may get flustered and became less efficient. The
situation in which service depends on the no. of customers waiting is referred to as state dependent service.
3. Queue Discipline
(i) First Come First Served (FCFS) or First In First Out (FIFO)
(ii) Last Come First Served (LCFS) or Last In First Out (LCFO)
(iii) Random Selection for Services (RSS)
(iv) Priority (a) Preemptive (b) Non- Preemptive
(a) Preemptive : The customer with the highest priority is allowed to enter service immediately even if a
customer with lower priority is already in service when the higher priority customer enters system.
(b) Non - preemptive : The highest priority customer goes to the head the queue but cannot get into service
until the customer presently in service is completely, even through this customer has a lower priority.
4. System Capacity : (i) Finite (ii) Infinite
(i) Finite: A queue with limited waiting room, so that when the time reaches a certain length, no further
customer are allowed to enter until space becomes available by a service completion.
(ii) Infinite: A queue with unlimited waiting room.
5. Number of Service Channels
(i) Single channel system
(ii) Multiple channel systems.
(i) Single Channel System
21
(ii) Multiple Channel System
Eg: 1. Barber Shop 2. Supermarket 3. Ticket Countrs.

6. Number of Service Stages : (i) Single stage (ii) Multiple stage
(i) Single Stage
Eg: 1. Barber Shop 2. Supermarket 3. Theater.

(ii) Multiple Stage
Eg: 1. Medical History 2. Bank A/c opening 3.Canteen

Kendall Notation (A/B/X/Y/Z)
A - Inter arrival time : M - Exponential, D - Deterministic, Ek - Erlang type k,
Hk – Hyper exponential type k, Ph - phase type, G – General.
B - Service time : M - Exponential, D - Deterministic, Ek - Erlang type k,
Hk - Hyper exponential type k, Ph – phase type, G – General.
X - No. of parallel servers : 1, 2 …∞
Y - System capacity : 1, 2 …∞
Z - Queue discipline : FCFS, LCFS, RSS, PR, GD
Queuing Models
1. Probabilistic or stochastic models 2. Deterministic models 3. Mixed models
Probabilistic model: When there is uncertainty in both arrival rate and service rate (i.e. not treated a
customer or not know) and are assumed to be random variables.
Deterministic model: Both arrival rate and service rate are constants (exactly known).
Mixed model: When either the arrival rate or the service rate is exactly known and the other is not known.
1. é/é/1 ∶ ∞/ÑêÑÖ
We look for probabilistic model only
2. é/é/1 ∶ /ÑêÑÖ
22
SINGLE SERVER MODEL WITH INFINITE SYSTEM CAPACITY - ë/ë/! ∶ ∞/ÌìÌÚ
ã ã
1. ># = 1 − • and > = o•p ># , æ = €ªªíî€ï ª€(ð, = ðªîíèð ª€(ð
ã
2. Probability that the system is busy = 1 − ># =
•
ó
3. Expected number of customers in the system : Lò = ô ó
ãe
4. Expected number of customers in the queue: õG = • • ã
•
5. Expected number of customers in non empty queues: õ = • ã
%
6. Expected waiting time a customer in the system: ö- =
• ã
ã
7. Average waiting time that a customer in the queue: öG =
• • ã
ã ÷ƒ%
8. Probability that the number of customers in the system exceeds k : > > à = o• p
ã ÷
9. Probability that the number of customers in the system greater than or equal to k : > ≥ à = o• p
10. Probability that the waiting time of a customer in the system exceeds t : > ø > ( = ð • ã +
ã
11. Probability that the waiting time of a customer in the queue exceeds t : > ø > ( = ð • ã +
•
12. Probability density function of the waiting time in the system: f w = μ − λ e ô ó ú
Which is the probability density function of an exponential distribution with parameter μ − λ.

μ−λ e , w > 0
ó ô ó ú
13. Probability density function of the waiting time in the queue: g w = û

ô ü
1 − ô , w = 0
ó
Little’s formula: õ- = æ ö- , õG = æ öG , ö- = öG + , õ- = õG +
% ã
• •
SINGLE SERVER MODEL WITH INFINITE SYSTEM CAPACITY - ë/ë/! ∶ ∞/ÌìÌÚ
1. Customers arrive at a one man barber shop according to a Poisson process with a mean inter arrival
time of 20 minutes. Customers spend an average of 15 minutes in the barber chair. If an hour is used as
the unit of time, then
(i) What is the probability that a customer need not wait for a hair cut?
(ii) What is the expected number of customers in the barber shop and in the queue?
(iii) How much time can a customer expect to spend in the barbershop?
(iv) Find the average time that a customer spends in the queue?
(v) What is the probability that there will be more than 6 customers?
(vi) What is the probability that there will be 6 or more customers waiting for service?
Solution: = = ⟹ ý = É customers/hour, = = ⟹ ‰ = Ç customers/hour.

% # % % %] %
(vii) What is the probability that the waiting time in the (a) system (b) queue, is > 12 minutes?
ã \# \ • ^# i
(i) > € èþ (© ðª ðð• ©( ø€í( = > © èþ (© ðª í (ℎð ¸ (ð : ># = 1 − • = 1 − i = 0.25

ã \
(ii) Expected number of customers in the barber shop : õ- = = = 3 customers

ã \
• ã i \
Expected number of customers in the queue: õG = = = = 2.25 customers

ãe \e l
• • ã i i \ i
(iii) Expected time a customer spend in the barbershop: ö- = = = 1 hour

% %
• ã i \
(iv) Average time that a customer spends in the queue: öG = • =i = i = 0.75 hour
ã \ \
• ã i \
(v) The probability that there will be more than 6 customers:
ã ÷ƒ% \ ^ƒ%
> >à =o p ⇒> >6 =o p = 0.1335
• i
23
(vi) The probability that there will be 6 or more customers waiting for service:
ã ÷ \ ^
> ≥ à = o• p ⇒ > ≥ 6 = oip = 0.1779
(vii) The probability that the waiting time in the system is greater than 12 minutes?
je
> ø > ( = ð • ã + ⇒ > ø > 12 = ð i \ ×fc = ð #. = 0.8187
(viii) The probability that the waiting time in the queue, is greater than 12 minutes?
je
ã \ \
> ø > ( = ð • ã +
⇒ > ø > 12 = o p ð i \ ×
fc = o pð #.
= 0.61405
• i i
2. If People arrive to purchase cinema tickets at the average rate of 6 per minute at a one man counter,
and it takes an average of 7.5 seconds to purchase a ticket. If a person arrives 2 minutes before the
picture starts and it takes exactly 1.5 minutes to reach the correct seat after purchasing the ticket,
(i) can he expect to be seated for the start of the picture?
(ii) What is the probability that he will be seated for the start of the picture?
Solution: λ = 6 /minute, µ = 8 /minute

(iii) How early must he arrive in order to be 99% sure of being seated for the start of the picture?
(i) ö- = = = = 0.5 minute

% % %
• ã k ^
E(total time required to purchase the ticket and to reach the seat) = 0.5 + 1.5 = 2 min
(ii) > total time < 2 minute = > ø < ( = 1 − > ø > ( = 1 − ð • ã +
j
> oø < p = 1 − ð =1−ð = 0.63
% k ^ × %
e
(iii) > ø < ( = 99% = 0.99 ⇒ 1 − > ø > ( = 0.99 ⇒ > ø > ( = 0.01 ⇒ ð • ã + = 0.01 ⇒
ð k ^ + = 0.01 ⇒ ð + = 0.01 ⇒ −2( = ln 0.01 ⇒ −2( = −4.6 ⇒ ( = 2.3 minute
> ticket purchasing time < 2.3 = 0.99
>Åtotal time to get the ticket and to go to the seat < 2.3 + 1.5 Æ = 0.99
∴ The person must arrive at least 2.64 minutes early so as to be 99% sure of seeing the start of the picture.
3. The arrivals at the counter in a bank occur in accordance with a Poisson process at an average rate of 8
per hour. The duration of service of a customer has an exponential distribution with a mean of 6
minutes. Find the probability that an arriving customer (i) Has to wait (ii) Finds 4 customers in the
Solution: λ = 8 / hour, μ = /minute = 10/hour

%
system (iii) Has to spend less than 15 minutes in the bank.
^
(i) Probability that a customer has to wait = Probability that the system is busy = = = 0.8
λ k
%#
k i
µ
(ii) Probability that there are 4 customers in the system = Pi = o%#p o1 − %#p = 0.08192
k
(iii) Probability that a customer has to spend less than 15 minutes in the bank: > ø > ( = ð • ã +
1 1 %
> ö- < 15 minutes = > ‚ö- < hour„ = 1 − > ‚ö- > hour„ = 1 − ð i = 0.3935
%# k o p
4 4
4. Customers arrive at a watch repair shop according to a Poisson process at a rate of one per every 10
minutes and the service time is an exponential random variable with mean 8 minutes.
(i) Find the average number of customers in the shop.
(ii) Find the average time a customer spends in the shop.
(iii) Find the average number of customers in the queue.
Solution:æ = 6 /hour, = k = /hour.

^# %]
(iv) What is the probability that the server is idle?
(i) The average number of customers in the shop : õ- = = jd = 4 customers

ã ^
• ã ^
e
(ii) The average time a customer spends in the shop : ö- = = jd = hour

% %
• ã ^ \
e
24
ãe ê %^
(iii) The average number of customers in the queue: õG = = jd jd =
• • ã o ^p ]
e e
(iv) > system is empty : ># = 1 − • = 1 − =]

ã ^ %
jd
o p
e
5. A departmental store has a single cashier. During the rush hours, customers arrive at the rate of 20
customers per hour. The average number of customers that can be processed by the cashier is 24 per
hour. Calculate the following
(i) What is the probability that the cashier is idle?
(ii) What is the average number of customers in the queueing system.
(iii) What is the average time a customer spends in the system.
(iv) What is the average number of customers in the queue?
Solution:æ = 20 /hour, = 24 /hour.

(v) What is the average time a customer spends in the queue, waiting for service?
(i) > cashier is idle = ># = 1 − = 1 − = 0.1674

ã #
• i
(ii) Average number of customers in the queueing system : õ- = = = 5 customers

ã #
• ã i #
(iii) Average time a customer spend in the system: ö- = • = = i hour

% % %
ã i #
(iv) Average number of customers in the queueing system : õG = • = = 4.167 customers

ãe #e
• ã i i #
(v) Average time that a customer spends in the queue: öG = = =

ã # #
• • ã i i # l^
hour
SINGLE SERVER MODEL WITH FINITE SYSTEM CAPACITY - ë/ë/! ∶ /ÌìÌÚ
â
o% p
, æ ≠ o•p ># , æ ≠
ã
># = ü and > =û ü

â Êj
% o p
, æ =
%
, æ =
%
÷ƒ%
÷ƒ%
Êj
ƒ% o p
oô óp − , æ≠
ó
Average number of customers in the system : Lò = % o p

Êj
ü
, æ =
÷
Average number of customers in the queue : L = Lò −

λ′
•
Effective arrival rate : λ = 1 − ># ′
Average waiting time of a customers in the system : ö- = ã•

¤
¤
Average waiting time of a customers in the queue : öG =
ã
SINGLE SERVER MODEL WITH FINITE SYSTEM CAPACITY - ë/ë/! ∶ /ÌìÌÚ
1. Patients arrive at a clinic according to Poisson distribution at a rate of 60 patients per hour. The waiting
room does not accommodate more than 14 patients. Investigation time per patient is exponential with
mean rate of 40 per hour.
(i) Determine the effective arrival rate at the clinic.
(ii) What is the probability that an arriving patient will not wait?
Solution: æ = 60 patients/hr, = 40 patients/hr, à = 14 + 1 = 15 (14 waiting patients + 1 patient under

(iii) What is the expected waiting time until a patient is discharged from the clinic?
investigation)
â
o% p
(i) Effective arrival rate λ = ′
1 − ># , Where ># = â Êj , æ≠
% o p
fc
o% p
># = }c
fc jdÊj
= 0.0007624 , λ′ = 40 1 − 0.0007624 = 39.9695 per hour.
% o p
}c
25
(ii) P a patient will not wait = P# = 0.0007624
(iii) Expected waiting time until a patient is discharged from the clinic: ö- =
¤•
ã′
Êj
fc jdÊj
ƒ% o p %]ƒ% o p
Lò = o p− =o p− = 13 patients, ö- = = 0.3203 hour
^# %i
λ
λ }c
λ Êj i# ^# fc jdÊj \l.l^l]
µ
% o p % o p
}c
µ λ
µ
2. At a railway station, only one train is handled at a time. The railway yard is sufficient only for two trains
to wait while other is given signal to leave the station. Trains arrive at the station at an average rate of 6
per hour and the railway station can handle them on an average of 12 per hour. Assuming Poisson
arrivals and exponential service distribution, find the steady state probabilities for the number of trains
in the system. Also find the average waiting time of a new train coming into the yard. If the handling
Solution: Case (i): æ = 6 trains/hr, = 12 trains/hr, à = 2 + 1 = 3

rate is reduced to half, what is the effect of the above results?
Steady state probabilities for the number of trains in the system = >% , > € • >\
â f
o% p o% p
> = o p ># , Where ># = = = 0.5333, æ ≠
ã je
• â Êj f }
% o p % o p
je
^ % ^ \
>% = o% p 0.5333 = 0.2667, > = o% p 0.5333 = 0.1333, >\ = o% p 0.5333 = 0.0667
^
Average waiting time of a new train coming in the yard : ö- =

¤•
ã′
æ =
′
1 − ># = 12 1 − 0.5333 = 5.6004
Êj
f †Êj
ƒ% o p \ƒ% o p
Lò = o p− =o p− = 0.7333 train, ö- = = 0.1309 hour
^ #.|\\\
λ
λ je
λ Êj % ^ f †Êj ].^##i
µ
% o p % o p
je
µ λ
Case (ii): If the handling rate is reduced to half, then æ = 6 trains/hr, = 6 trains/hr, à = 2 + 1 = 3
µ
Steady state probabilities for the number of trains in the system = >% , > € • >\
> = , >% = = , > = , >\ =
% % % % %
÷ƒ% \ƒ% i i i
Average waiting time of a new train coming in the yard : ö- =
¤•
ã′
># = = , æ′ = 1 − ># = 6 o1 − p = 4.5, Lò = = = 1.5 train, ö- = = 0.3333 hours

% % % \ %.]
÷ƒ% i i i.]
3. A petrol pump with only one pump can accommodate 5 cars. The arrival of cars is Poisson with a mean
rate of 10 per hour. The service time is exponentially distributed with a mean 2 minutes. How many cars
are in the petrol pump on an average? What is the probability of a newly arriving customer finding the
system full and leaving without availing service?
â jc
o% p o% p
Solution: æ = 10/hr, = 30/hr, à = 5 , ># = â Êj = jc
†c
dÊj = 0.667, æ ≠
% o p % o p
†c
Êj
jc dÊj
ƒ% o p ]ƒ% o p
Lò = o p− =o p− = 0.492
%#
λ
λ †c
Êj \# %# jc dÊj
µ
% o p % o p
†c
µ λ λ
> System full = > 5 cars in the system = o p @ = o p

ý 4 %# 4
µ
0.667 = 0.00274.
‰ \#
4. A one person barber shop has 6 chairs to accommodate people waiting for a hair cut. Assume that
customers who arrive when all the 6 chairs are full leave without entering the barber shop. Customers
arrive at the average rate of 3 per hour and spend an average of 15 minutes in the barber chair.
(i) What is the probability that a customer can get directly into the barber chair upon arrival?
(ii) What is the expected number of customers waiting for a hair cut?
(iii) How much time can a customer expect to spend in the barber shop?
Solution: æ = 3/hr, = 4/hr, à = 6 + 1 = 7

(iv) What fraction of potential customers are turned away?
26
â †
o% p o% p
># = â Êj = }
† yÊj
= 0.2778, æ ≠
% o p % o p
}
Effective arrival rate λ′ = 1 − ># = 4 1 − 0.2778 = 2.89/ℎ©þª

(i) Probability of empty system = ># = 0.2778
Êj
† yÊj
ƒ% o p \ |ƒ% o p
(ii) Lò = o p− =o p− = 2.11
λ
λ }
Êj i \ † yÊj
µ
% o p % o p
}
µ λ λ
µ
ã .kl
õG = õ- − •
= 2.11 − i
= 1.3875
¤• .%%
(iv) ö- = = = 0.7301/ℎ©þª
ã .kl
ã | \ |
(v) > € èþ (© ðª í (þª ð• €ø€¸ = > ¸ (ð í Þþïï = >| = o•p ># = oip 0.2778 = 0.037
Hence 3.7% of potential customers are turned away.
UNIT – 5
MARKOV CHAINS
Syllabus
• Introduction to Stochastic process, Markov process, Markov chain one step & n-step Transition
Probability.
• Transition Probability Matrix and Applications
• Chapman Kolmogorov theorem (Statement only) – Applications.
• Classification of states of a Markov chain – Applications
INTRODUCTION
ŸI , ( which are functions of a real variable ( (time). Here ∈ ¶ (sample space) and ( ∈ (index set)
Random Processes or Stochastic Processes : A random process is a collection of random variables
and each ŸI , ( is a real valued function. The set of possible values of any individual member is called
state space.
Classification : Random processes can be classified into 4 types depending on the continuous or discrete
nature of the state space S and index set T.
1. Discrete random sequence : If both S and T are discrete
2. Discrete random process : If S is discrete and T is continuous
3. Continuous random sequence : If S is continuous and T is discrete
4. Continuous random process : If both S and T are continuous.
If, for (% < ( < (\ < ⋯ < ( , we have >ŸI ( ≤ /I (% = % , I ( = . . . I ( = =

Markov Process
>ŸI ( ≤ /I ( = then the process ŸI ( is called a Markov process. That is, if the future
behaviour of the process depends only on the present state and not on the past, then the random process is
Markov Chain : If, for all , >ŸI = € /I % = € % , I = € . . . I# = €# = > ŸI = € /I % =

called a Markov process.
€ −1 then the process I ; =0,1,2… is called a Markov chain.

One Step Transition Probability : The conditional probability >× − 1, = >ÂI = € /I# = €× Ã is
called one step transition probability from state €× to state € in the +” step.
Homogeneous Markov Chain : If the one step transition probability does not depend on the step. That is,
@- − !, = @- − !, the Markov chain is called a homogeneous markov chain or the chain is
said to have stationary transition probabilities.
27
- Step Transition Probability : The conditional probability >× = >ÂI = € /I# = €× Ã is called n –
step transition probability.
Chapman Kolmogorov Equations : If P is the tpm of a homogeneous Markov chain, the +”
step tpm >
is equal to > . That is, >× = »>× ¼ .
Regular Matrix : A stochastic matrix P is said to be a regular matrix, if all the entries of > are positive. A
homogeneous Markov chain is said to be regular if its tpm is regular.
Irreducible Chain and Non - Irreducible (or) Reducible: If for every í, we can find some such that
Classification of States of a Markov Chain
>× > 0, then every state can be reached from every other state, and the Markov chain is said to be
irreducible. Otherwise the chain is non – irreducible or reducible.
Return State : State í of a Markov chain is called a return state, if >× > 0 for some > 1.
Periodic State and Aperiodic State : The period •× of a return state í is the greatest common divisor of all
such that >× > 0. That is, •× = ! "o : >×× > 0 p. State í is periodic with period •× if •× > 1 and
aperiodic if •× = 1.
Recurrent (Persistent) State and Transient : If ∑#Ü% Þ×× = 1, the return to state í is certain and the state í
is said to be persistent or recurrent. Otherwise, it is said to be transient.
Null Persistent and Non – null Persistent State : ×× = ∑#Ü% Þ×× is called the mean recurrence time of
the state í. If ×× is finite, the state í is non null persistent. If ×× = ∞ the state í is null persistent.
Ergodic State: A non null persistent and aperiodic state are called ergodic.
Theorem used to classify states
1. If a Markov chain is irreducible, all its states are of the same type. They are all transient, all null
persistent or all non null persistent. All its states are either aperiodic or periodic with the same period.
2. If a Markov chain is finite irreducible, all its states are non null persistent.
PROBLEMS
6. A man either drives a car or catches a train to go to office each day. He never goes 2 days in a row by
train but if he drives one day, then the next day he is just as likely to drive again as he is to travel by
train. Now suppose that on the first day of the week, the man tossed a fair die and drove to work if and
only if a 6 appeared. (i) Find the probability that he takes a train on the 3rd day (ii) Find the probability
that he drives to work in the long run.
ª€í → ª€í ª€í → €ª = 1, > €ª → ª€í €ª → €ª =

Solution : Let T – Train and C - Car. If today he goes by train, next day he will not go by train.
% %
> = 0, > = ,>

0 1
>= % % . The first day of the week, the man tossed a fair die and drove to work if and only if a 6
appeared. Initial state probability distribution is obtained by throwing a die.

% % ]
Probability of going by car = and Probability of going by train = 1 − =
^ ^ ^
] %
The 1 day sate distribution is >
st %
=
^ ^
] % 0 1 % %%
The 2nd day sate distribution is > => %
>=
^ ^
% % = %
%
% %% 0 1 %% %\
The 3rd day sate distribution is > \
=> >= % % =
% % i i
%%
(i) P(he travels by train on 3rd day) =
i
28
(ii) The limiting form or long run probability distribution. %? = %
0 1
[&% & ] % % = [&% & ]
= &% ⇒ & = 2 &%

'e
(1)
&% + = & ⇒ & = 2 &%
'e
&% + & = 1
(2)
Sub. (1) in (3), &% + 2 &% = 1 ⇒ %! =

(3)
!
É
(4)
+ & = 1 ⇒ % = É , P(driving in the long run) = \.
%
\
Sub. (4) in (3),
7. A college student X has the following study habits. If he studies one night, he is 70% sure not to study
the next night. If he does not study one night, he is only 60% sure not to study the next night also. Find
(i) the transition probability matrix (ii) how often he studies in the long run.
Solution : Let S – Studying and N - Not Studying. If he studies one night, next night he is 70% not
> ¶(þ•¸í ( → ©( ¶(þ•¸í ( = 0.7, > ¶(þ•¸í ( → ¶(þ•¸í ( = 0.3,

studying.
> ©( ¶(þ•¸í ( → ©( ¶(þ•¸í ( = 0.6, > ©( ¶(þ•¸í ( → ¶(þ•¸í ( = 0.4 ,

¶
¶ 0.3 0.7
>= . The limiting form or long run probability distribution. %? = %
0.4 0.6
[&% & ] 0.3 0.7 = [&% & ]
0.4 0.6
0.3 &% + 0.4 & = &% ⇒ 0.4 & = 0.7 &% ⇒ 4 & = 7&%
0.7 &% + 0.6 & = & ⇒ 0.4 & = 0.7 &%
(1)
⇒ 4 & = 7&%
&% + & = 1
(2)
& + & = 1 ⇒ % =
(3)
i È
| !!
Sub. (1) in (3), (4)
&% + = 1 ⇒ %! =
È Ç Ç
, P(he studies in the long run) =
!! !! !!
Sub. (4) in (3), .
!
É
8. Suppose that the probability of a dry day following a rainy day is and that the probability of a rainy day
!
following a dry day is . Given that May 1 is a dry day, find the prob. that (i) May 3 is also a dry day (ii)
May 5 is also a dry day.
" )
Solution : Let D – Dry day and R - Rainy day.
"
% %
> = *% + . Initial state probability distribution is the probability distribution on May 1. Since May 1 is
)
\ \
% %
> = [1 0] *% +=
% %
a dry day. P(D) = 1 and P(R) = 0. > %
= [1 0], > => %
,
\ \
% %
*% += , , ë±· É - ± ™²· ™±· =

% % ] | 4
> \
=>
> =
% % !
\ \
% % % %
*% += *% +=
] | l i\ l i\ %|\ ]l
> i
=> \
> = ,> i
> =
% % | | | | i\ i\
,
\ \ \ \
!ÈÉ
@ ë±· 4 - ± ™²· ™±· =
ÇÉ
.
29
9. A salesman territory consists of 3 cities A, B and C. He never sells in the same city on successive days. If
he sells in city A, then the next day, he sells in city B. However, if he sells in either B or C, the next day
he is twice as likely to sell in city A as in the other city. In the long run, how often does he sell in each of
the cities?
0 1 0
A B C
’ %
Solution : The tpm of the given problem is > = - . \ 0 \ /. The limiting form or long run prob.
%
0
\ \
distribution. %? = %
0 1 0
%
[&% & &\ ] . \ 0 \/ = [&% & &\ ]
%
\ \
0
\
& + \ &\ = &% ⇒ 2 & + 2 &\ = 3&% ⇒ 3&% − 2 & − 2 &\ = 0 (1)
&% + \ &\ = & ⇒ 3&% + &\ = 3& ⇒ 3&% − 3& + &\ = 0
%
(2)
& = &\ ⇒ & = 3&\
%
\
&% + & + &\ = 1
(3)
3&% = 8 &\ ⇒ &% = &\

(4)
k
Sub. (3) in (1), 3&% − 2 & − 2 &\ = 0 ⇒ 3&% − 2 3&\ − 2 &\ = 0 ⇒
\
(5)
Sub. (3) and (5) in (4), &% + & + &\ = 1 ⇒ &\ + 3&\ + &\ = 1 ⇒ &\ =
k \
\ #
(6)
Sub. (6) in (3), & = , Sub. (6) in (5), &% = , %! = . Ç , % = . Ç4, %É = . !4
l k
# #
Thus in the long run, he sells 40% of the time in city A, 45% of the time in the city B and 15% of the time
in city C.
10. A fair die is tossed repeatedly. If Í denotes the maximum of the numbers occurring in the first tosses,
find the transition probability matrix @ of the Markov chain ŸÍ . Find also @ and @ Í = Ä .
Solution: The state space is Ÿ1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 . I = maximum of the numbers occurring in the first trials.
I ƒ% = maximum of the numbers occurring in the first + 1 trials = maxÅI , þ çðª í (ℎð +
1(ℎ (ªí€ï .
I =1
Let us see how the First Row of the tpm is filled.
I ƒ% = 1 íÞ 1 €==ð€ª í + 1 +” (ªí€ï
= 2 íÞ 1 €==ð€ª í + 1 +” (ªí€ï
= 3 íÞ 1 €==ð€ª í + 1 +” (ªí€ï
= 4 íÞ 1 €==ð€ª í + 1 +” (ªí€ï
= 5 íÞ 1 €==ð€ª í + 1 +” (ªí€ï
= 6 íÞ 1 €==ð€ª í + 1 +” (ªí€ï
Now, in the + 1 +” trial, each of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 occurs with probability .
%
^
Here I = 2
Let us see how the Second Row of the tpm is filled.
êÞ + 1 +” (ªí€ï ªð þï( í 1 ©ª 2, I ƒ% = 2
êÞ + 1 +” (ªí€ï ªð þï( í 3, I ƒ% = 3
êÞ + 1 +” (ªí€ï ªð þï( í 4, I ƒ% = 4
êÞ + 1 +” (ªí€ï ªð þï( í 5, I ƒ% = 5
êÞ + 1 +” (ªí€ï ªð þï( í 6, I ƒ% = 6
If I = 2, > I ƒ% = 2 = and > I ƒ% = à = , à = 3, 4, 5, 6.
%
^ ^
30
Proceeding similarly, the tpm is
+ 1 +” (€(ð
3 ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 6 3 ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 6 3 ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 6 3 6
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
% \ ] | l %%
20 % % % %5 20 % % % %5 20 % % % %5 2 %%5
\^ \^ \^ \^ \^ \^
2 ^ ^ ^ ^ ^5 2 ^ ^ ^ ^ ^5 2 ^ ^ ^ ^ ^5 20 \^ \^ \^ \^ \^5
i ] | l
20 0 \ % % %5 20 0 \ % % %5 20 0 \ % % %5 2
+” 2 ^ ^ ^ ^5 2 ^ ^ ^ ^5 2 ^ ^ ^ ^5 0 0 5
l | l %%
>= > = = 2 \^ 5
2 0 0 0 5 20 0 0 5 20 0 0 5
i % % i % % i % % \^ \^ \^
5 2 0 0 0 \^ \^ \^ 5
,
%^ l %%
2 5 2 5 2
2 0 0 0 0 ^ ^ 5 2 0 0 0 0 ^ ^ 5 2 0 0 0 0 ] %% 5
^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
2 0 0 0 0 ^ ^ 5
] % ] % ] %
2 2 \^ \^ 5
%5 2 %5 2 %5
1 0 0 0 0 0 ^ 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 ^ 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 ^ 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 4
% % % % % %
The initial probability distribution is > #
=
^ ^
^ ^ ^ ^
> I = 6 = ∑^×Ü% > I = 6/I# = í > I# = í = ∑^×Ü% >×^ = [>%^ + > ^ + >\^ + >i^ + >]^ + >^^ ]
% %
^ ^
% %% %% %% %% %% l%
> I =6 = + + + + +1 =
^ \^ \^ \^ \^ \^ %^
11. The transition probability matrix of a Markov chain ŸÍ , = !, , … having 3 states 1, 2, 3 is @=
.! .4 .Ç
7 .Ä . . 8 and the initial distribution @ = . È, . , . ! .
.É .Ç .É
Find (i) @ Í = É, Í! = É, Í = (ii) @ Í = É (iii) @ ÍÉ = , Í = É, Í! = É, Í = .
Solution:
(i) > I = 3, I% = 3, I# = 2 = > I = 3/ I% = 3, I# = 2 > I% = 3, I# = 2
= > I = 3/ I% = 3 > I% = 3, I# = 2 = >\\ > I% = 3, I# = 2
%
= >\\% > I% = 3/I# = 2 > I# = 2 = >\\% > \% > I# = 2

= 0.3 0.2 0.2 = 0.012
(ii) > I = 3 = > I = 3, I# = 1 + > I = 3, I# = 2 + > I = 3, I# = 3
= > I = 3/ I# = 1 > I# = 1 + > I = 3/ I# = 2 > I# = 2
+> I = 3/ I# = 3 > I# = 3
= >%\ > I# = 1 + > \ > I# = 2 + >\\ > I# = 3
= 0.26 0.7 + 0.34 0.2 + 0.29 0.1 = 0.279
0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.43 0.31 0.26
> = 70.6 0.2 0.28 70.6 0.2 0.28 = 70.24 0.42 0.348
0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.36 0.35 0.29
(iii) > I\ = 2, I = 3, I% = 3, I# = 2 = > I\ = 2/ I = 3, I% = 3, I# = 2
> I = 3, I% = 3, I# = 2
= > I\ = 2/ I = 3 > I = 3, I% = 3, I# = 2
= >\ > I = 3/ I% = 3, I# = 2 > I% = 3, I# = 2
%
= >\ > I = 3/ I% = 3 > I% = 3, I# = 2

%
= >\ % >\\% > I% = 3/ I# = 2 > I# = 2

= >\ >\\ > \ > I# = 2 = 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 = 0.0048
% % %
12. The transition probability matrix of a Markov chain Ÿ9 : , : = !, , … having 3 states 1, 2, 3 is

3Ç Ç 6
É !
2! ! !5
, = 2Ç Ç5
& the initial distribution , = o , , p. Find (i) , 9 É = /9 = ! (ii) , 9 =
! ! !
2 !5
É É É
1 Ç4
É
(iii) , 9 = (iv) , 9 É = !, 9 = , 9 ! = !, 9 =
Ç
, 9 ! = !, 9 =
31
(i) P X\ = 2/X = 1 = >%
Solution:
%
=i
%
(ii) > I = 2 = > I = 2, I# = 1 + > I = 2, I# = 2 + > I = 2, I# = 3

= > I = 2/ I# = 1 > I# = 1 + > I = 2/ I# = 2 > I# = 2
+> I = 2/ I# = 3 > I# = 3
= >% > I# = 1 + > > I# = 2 + >\ > I# = 3
] % k % l % %
= o po p + o po p + o po p =
%^ \ %^ \ %^ \ ^
3i 06 3 06 3%^ %^ %^6
\ % \ % %# ] %
2% %5 2%%5 2] k \5
i i i
> = 2i i5 2ii5
= 2%^ %^ %^5
% %
2 %5 2 %5 2\ l i5
10 4 10i4 1%^ %^ %^4
\ \
i i i
(iii) > I = 2, I% = 1, I# = 2 = > I = 2/ I% = 1, I# = 2 > I% = 1, I# = 2
= > I = 2/ I% = 1 > I% = 1, I# = 2 = >% > I% = 1, I# = 2
%
= >% % > I% = 1/I# = 2 > I# = 2 = >% % > %% > I# = 2

% % %
= oip oip o\p = 0.0208
(iv) > I\ = 1, I = 2, I% = 1, I# = 2 = > I\ = 1/ I = 2, I% = 1, I# = 2
> I = 2, I% = 1, I# = 2
= > I\ = 1/ I = 2 > I = 2, I% = 1, I# = 2
= > % > I = 2/ I% = 1, I# = 2 > I% = 1, I# = 2
%
= > % > I = 2/ I% = 1 > I% = 1, I# = 2

%
= > %% >% % > I% = 1, I# = 2

= > % >% > I% = 1/ I# = 2 > I# = 2
% %
% % % %
= > %% >% % > %% > I# = 2 = o p o p o p o p = 0.0052
i i i \
!
13. Find the nature of the states of the Markov chain with the tpm @ = * +.
! !
!
% %
0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
Solution : > = * +, > = > > = * +* + = . 0 1 0/ ,
% % % % % %
0 0 0
% %
0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
% % % %
0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
>\ = > > = .0 1 0/ * +=* + = >, >i = >\ > = .0 1 0/ = >
% % % %
0 0
% % % %
0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
>%% > 0, >% > 0, >%\ > 0, > % > 0, > > 0, > \ > 0 , >\% > 0, >\ > 0, >\\ > 0
% % \ %
The chain is irreducible. Also since there are only 3 states, the chain is finite. That is, the chain is finite and
irreducible.
>ðªí©• ©Þ (€(ð 1 = ! " 2, 4, 6 … = 2

All the states are non null persistent.
State 1: >%% > 0, >%% > 0, >%% > 0, … ,
i ^
State 2: > > 0, > > 0, > > 0… , >ðªí©• ©Þ (€(ð 2 = ! " 2, 4, 6 … = 2
i ^
State 3: >\\ > 0, >\\ > 0, >\\ > 0, … >ðªí©• ©Þ (€(ð 3 = ! " 2, 4, 6 … = 2
i ^
All the states 1, 2, 3 have period 2. That is, they are periodic. All the states are non null persistent, but the
states are periodic. Hence all the states are not ergodic.
32
14. Three boys A, B, C are throwing a ball to each other. A always throw the ball to B &B always throws
to C but C is just as likely to throw the ball to B as to A. Show that the process is Markovian. Find
the transition matrix & classify the states.
Solution:
’ 0 1 0
A B C
> = - *0% 0% 1+ ,
0
3 06
% %
0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0
1+ = 20 %5
% % % %
> = > > = *0% 0% 1+ *0 0 1+ = . 0/ , >\ = > > = . 0/ * 0 0
2 5
%
2% %5
% % % %
0 0 0
% %
0
% % 0
1i 4
%
i
3 06 0 30 6 30 6 0 1 0 3i 6
% % % % % % % % %
1 0
2 %5 0 0 1+ = 2 % %5 2% %5 0 0 1 2% %5
i
> = > > = 20 5 *% 2i 5 , > = > > = 2 i 5 *% % + = 2i i5
i \ % % ] i % %
2% %5 2% %5 2% %5 2% %5
% i i
0 0
1i 4 1i i4 1i i4 1k 4
% % % \
i k
>%% > 0, >% > 0, >%\ > 0 , > % > 0, > > >0, 0, > \ >\%
> 0, >\ > 0, >\\ > 0
\ % % % %
The chain is irreducible. Also since there are only 3 states, the chain is finite. That is, the chain is finite and
irreducible.
>ðªí©• ©Þ ’ = ! " 3, 5, … = 1
All the states are non null persistent.
1st state A: >%% > 0, >%% > 0, …
\ ]
state B: > > 0, > > 0, > > 0… >ðªí©• ©Þ - = ! " 2, 3, 4 … = 1

nd \ i
3rd state C: >\\ > 0, >\\ > 0, >\\ > 0, … >ðªí©• ©Þ = ! " 2, 3, 4 … = 1
2
\ i
All the states A, B, C have period 1. That is, they are aperiodic.
All the states are aperiodic and non null persistent, they are ergodic.
All the Best
Regards!
Dr. P. GodhandaRaman
Assistant Professor
Department of Mathematics
SRM University, Kattankulathur – 603 203
Email : [email protected], Mobile : 9941740168
33

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PROBABILITY

(As per SRM UNIVERSITY Syllabus)

Single Difference Single Difference Goodness Independent Single Difference

STATISTICS BASIC DEFINITIONS

: There is no significant difference between the sample statistic and the

1. Set up the null hypothesis "# .

2. Set up the alternative hypothesis "% .

PROBLEMS IN SINGLE PROPORTION

Solution: = 256, I = Number of success = 132

= = proportion of successes in the sample = = = 0.5156

Null Hypothesis "# ∶ The coin is unbiased.

Solution: = 1000, = = sample proportion of vegetarians = %### = 0.54

> = populatin proportion of vegetarians = = 0.5, _ = 1 − > = 0.5

|*| = 2.5298 < 2.58, "# accepted at 1% level of significance.

Solution: = 180, = = proportion of sample for success = =

Test statistics * = = 3.1623 , |*| = 3.1623 > 2.58

Solution: = 400, = = proportion of top quality products in the sample = i## = k

> = 20% of the prodcts manufactured is of top quality = , _ = 1 − > =

95% confidence limits for P are given by = ± 1.96A

− 1.96A ≤ > ≤ + 1.96A

Solution: = 50, = = sample proportions of shoppers not making a purchase = ]# = 0.7

*. = 1.645 at 5% level of significance, |*| < *. , "# is accepted.

Solution: = 20, = = proportion of persons survived in the sample = = 0.9

*. = 1.645 at 5% level of significance, |*| < *. , "# is accepted

Solution: = 600, = == ^## = 0.5417

> = Population proportion of smokers in the city = 0.5, _ = 1 − > = 0.15

Solution: = 200, = = proportion of products con~irming to speci~ications =

|*| = 2.596 > 1.645

= −1.29, |*| = 1.29

*. = 1.96 at 5% level of significance, |*| < *. , "# is accepted.

Solution: % = 900, = 1600, =% = 20% = 0.2, = = 18.5% = 0.185

Null Hypothesis "# ∶ =% = = , Alternative Hypothesis "% : =% ≠ = (two tailed test)

*. = 1.96 at 5% level of significance, |*| < *. , "# is accepted.

Solution: % = 500, = 400, =% = 62% = 0.62, = = 1 − 0.41 = 0.59

Null Hypothesis "# ∶ =% = = , Alternative Hypothesis "% : =% ≠ = (two tailed test)

*. = 1.96 at 5% level of significance, |*| < *. , "# is accepted.

*. = 1.645 at 5% level of significance, |*| < *. , "# is accepted.

Solution: % = 1600, = 900, =% = 15.5% = 0.155, = = 20% = 0.2

Solution: = 60, ̅ = 145, = 40

>Ÿ ̅ − 5 ≤ ≤ ̅ + 5 ≥ 0.95 ⟹ >Ÿ−5 ≤ − ̅ ≤ 5 ≥ 0.95

>Ÿ| − ˆ | ≤ 5 ≥ 0.95 ⟹ >Ÿ| ̅ − | ≤ 5 ≥ 0.95

Two Tailed Test

Solution: % = 500, = 400, ¦¦¦¦% = 20, ¦¦¦ = 15, = 4

Null Hypothesis "# ∶ ̅% = ̅ , Alternative Hypothesis "% : ̅% ≠ ̅ (two tailed test)

Solution: % = 1000, = 2000, ¦¦¦¦% = 67.5, ¦¦¦ = 68, = 2.5

Null Hypothesis "# ∶ ̅% = ̅ , Alternative Hypothesis "% : ̅% ≠ ̅ (two tailed test)

Solution: % = 400, = 400, ¦¦¦¦% = 250, ¦¦¦ = 220, % = 40, = 55

Null Hypothesis "# ∶ ̅% = ̅ , Alternative Hypothesis "% : ̅% ≠ ̅ (two tailed test)

*. = 2.33 at 1% level of significance

Solution: = 22, ̅ = 153.7, = 146.3 , = 17.2

Null Hypothesis ∶ = 146.3, i.e. The advertising campaign is not successful.

Calculate value t > Tabulated t. ¾ is rejected.

Solution: = 20, ̅ = 42, = 45, = 5

Null Hypothesis ∶ = 45 , Alternate Hypothesis ! : ≠ 45 (Two tailed)

Solution: = 10, ̅ = 0.742, = 0.700, = 0.040

Null Hypothesis ∶ = 0.700 , Alternate Hypothesis ! : ≠ 0.700 (Two tailed)

Solution: = 25, ̅ = 1550, = 1600, = 120

Null Hypothesis ∶ ̅ = , Alternate Hypothesis ! : ̅ < (Left Tailed)

Degree of freedom: n − 1 = 10 − 1 = 9 at 5% level of significance for two tailed test = 2.262.

Alternate Hypothesis : "% : ¦¦¦ ¦¦¦ (Right tail)

. = 1.645 at 5% level of significance, || < *. , "# is accepted.

. = 1.645 at 5% level of significance, || < *. , "# is accepted

. = 1.96 at 5% level of significance, || < *. , "# is accepted.

. = 1.96 at 5% level of significance, || < *. , "# is accepted.

. = 1.96 at 5% level of significance, || < *. , "# is accepted.

. = 1.645 at 5% level of significance, || < *. , "# is accepted.