A Neural-CBR System For Real Property Valuation: Adebola G. Musa, Olawande Daramola, Alfred Owoloko, Oludayo Olugbara
A Neural-CBR System For Real Property Valuation: Adebola G. Musa, Olawande Daramola, Alfred Owoloko, Oludayo Olugbara
http://www.cisjournal.org
ABSTRACT
In recent times, the application of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques for real property valuation has been on the
increase. Some expert systems that leveraged on machine intelligence concepts include rule-based reasoning, case-based
reasoning and artificial neural networks. These approaches have proved reliable thus far and in certain cases outperformed
the use of statistical predictive models such as hedonic regression, logistic regression, and discriminant analysis. However,
individual artificial intelligence approaches have their inherent limitations. These limitations hamper the quality of
decision support they proffer when used alone for real property valuation. In this paper, we present a Neural-CBR system
for real property valuation, which is based on a hybrid architecture that combines Artificial Neural Networks and Case-
Based Reasoning techniques. An evaluation of the system was conducted and the experimental results revealed that the
system has higher satisfactory level of performance when compared with individual Artificial Neural Network and Case-
Based Reasoning systems.
Keywords: Case-based reasoning, artificial neural networks, real property valuation, intelligent system
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proved useful for real property valuation in some locations estate values. In [22], a multi-resolution approach was
where transaction data is not readily available or is used to determine real estate price in the Chinese real
unreliable. The past experiences of experts have been used estate market applying three theories: (1) Unascertained
as a basis to implement a CBR system for decision support theory, (2) Principal Component Analysis - PCA and (3)
purposes [32]. CBR systems have very strong explanation Ant Colony Optimization ACO-based ANN. The result
mechanism because of the existence of sufficiently similar forecasted is in good agreement with the actual values, and
previous cases that provides good rationale for new have been very accurate and meet the actual needs. Lin
solutions obtained. However, the disadvantage of CBR is and Chen [23] applied Back Propagation Neural Networks
that the quality of its solutions depends solely on the (BPN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) to property
existence of good cases that are relevant to solving the valuation in Taiwan. The results of the BPN & SVR were
new case at hand. This brings the tendency to overly rely compared. It was found that SVR with trial-and-error
on previous experiences without validating them in a new method performed the best with MAPE = 4.466% and R2
situation. = 0.8540. That is, stepwise regression is efficient but not
the best variable selection method with both BPN and
Our approach in this work, innovates the SVR. Also ANN was used as a valuation technique in [10,
combination of ANN and CBR in a single system 15, 27, 43, 45, 44, 8, 9, 33].
framework leveraging the strengths of the two instance-
based learning techniques. The experienced-based Most of the existing CBR systems that have been
problem solving capability of CBR systems and its viable reported in literature find application in the fields of
explanation mechanism is combined with the strong medicine, law, planning and design. These include CHEF
interpolative capability of ANN in producing a Hybrid [18], PESUADER [41], CABOT [11], GINA [14]), and
Intelligent System (HIS) for qualitative decision support CYRUS [20]. Relatively few CBR systems have been
for real property valuation. This, to the best of our reported to have application in the real estate domain.
knowledge represents a first attempt at hybridizing these However, PROFIT [6], is a Fuzzy CBR (FCBR) system
two approaches in a practical scenario for improved for residential property valuation. It is an advanced
decision support in the real estate domain. To achieve this, prototype system developed to estimate residential
data from selected input variables of new cases are property values for real estate transactions that was based
transformed via a pre-processing procedure into numerical on the use of CBR techniques with Fuzzy predicates.
data that are suitable for ANN computation, and the result PROFIT has been successfully tested on thousands of real
of the ANN is passed to the CBR component. Thereafter, estate transactions. Also, Pacharavanich et al. [32]
the CBR component seeks for existing past cases that are reported the application of a CBR tool for the valuation of
sufficiently similar to the input case whose solution and residential property in Bangkok, also an evaluation of the
explanation can be adapted to the new context. Hence, CBR tool was conducted. Juan et al. [19] developed a
this work introduces the novel hybridization of ANN and “pre-sale housing”-based decision support system for the
CBR decision support in real property valuation for Taiwan real estate market using a hybrid of CBR and
improved performance relative to the application of a Genetic Algorithm (GA). Based on the customer’s needs,
solitary ANN or CBR approach. CBR is used to retrieve relevant housing layout. Out of the
retrieved cases, nearest neighbour method was used to
The remaining part of the paper is described as calculate similarity of cases. GA was then applied to
follows: In section 2 we give an overview of related work, optimize cost and housing conditions. Hybrid CBR
while Section 3 discusses the hybrid architecture of the systems are those that combine other forms of knowledge
Neural-CBR system. Section 4 is a case study report of the and reasoning methods with CBR. Examples include
application of the Neural-CBR system to business data of Fuzzy-CBR [7], rule-based and case-based [36, 16],
properties sales obtained from a Nigerian company (Dan combining case-based and model-based [34], case-based
Odiete and Co. Ltd. based in Benin City, Nigeria). The and inductive learning [13, 5, 25, 3]. Thus far, relatively
paper is concluded in section 5 with a brief note. few instances of Neural-CBR hybrids have been reported
in the literature with no report of its application to the real
2. RELATED WORK estate domain. Although, Taffasse [42] discussed the
A number of machine learning methods and prospects of Neural-CBR approach to real property
techniques that are applicable to property appraisal and appraisal, the paper did not report any implementation
valuation have been reported in literature. Wilson et al. experience to practically validate the propositions made.
[44] reported the implementation of an intelligent system Specifically, a combination of CBR and a Radial basis
for valuation of residential property. The intelligent ANN in the implementation of a Sales-Advisory system
system was built using a hybrid of Multi-Layer Perceptron was reported in [28].
(MLP) ANN and rule-based expert system. The study by
Guan et al [17] describes the design and implementation of In [24] an ongoing work on the development of
an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System-based hybrid Neural-CBR classifiers for building on-line
(ANFIS) approach to estimate prices for residential communities was reported. The objective of the work is to
properties. The paper represents a first attempt to evaluate identify communities of use in the context of an organized
the feasibility and effectiveness of ANFIS in assessing real group of people. The process involves mining users
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bookmark files in order to identify communities that share Where w0 is the bias weight, wi and xi are the
the same information interests. An intelligent agent is used weight and input vectors respectively. The activation at
to observe user behavior in order to learn the user each neuron is given by the sigmoid function:
bookmark classification strategy before hybrid neural
case-based reasoning component is used as incremental 1
classifier. Also, Bajo et al. [4] reported the implementation f(a) = (2)
of a Case-Based Planner for Monitoring Patients (1 e sum )
(CBPMP) system. It is an autonomous deliberative case-
based planner designed to plan the nurses' working time The sigmoid function is continuous and
dynamically, to maintain the standard working reports differentiable in the interval [0, 1], and is one of mostly
about the nurses' activities, and to guarantee that the used activation function for the MLP. The MLP is trained
patients assigned to the nurses are given the right care. The using the back propagation algorithm [35], which is a form
CBPMP was integrated with a Routing Problems with of supervised learning, by presenting sample input-output
Time Windows (RPTW) neural network component in pairs to the network. The error difference between the
order to realize an intelligent environment for monitoring network’s output and the expected target output are fed
patients' health care in execution time in hospital back into the network for updating the weights connecting
environments. Hence, the contribution of this work stems the hidden-output layers and the input-hidden layers.
from the novel hybridization of MLP-ANN and CBR in
the implementation of a Neural-CBR decision support In our Neural-CBR system, symbolic data
system in real estate property valuation. obtained from case instances are transformed into
numerical data through pre-processing and fed as input
into the MLP. The data pre-processing is therefore, a
3. THE HYBRID NEURAL-CBR SYSTEM
necessary precursor to the operations of the MLP-ANN
The Neural-CBR system is a hybrid modular
component of the Neural-CBR system.
architecture of two components with five user interfaces.
The two components are the ANN component and the
3.2 The CBR Component
CBR component (see Figure 1).
The set of input variable values and the predicted
output obtained from the MLP component is passed to the
CBR component. The CBR component has a case base
indexed on unique case identity field (case_id) and the
computed similarity score of each case. The typical
structure of a case consists of the following:
Case_id – which is an auto-generated primary
key of the table;
Case_simscore – which is the computed
similarity score of a case in the case base relative
to a particular case instance;
Case_attributesset – input values of individual
attributes stored as a string separated by
delimiters;
Fig 1: A Schematic View of the hybrid Neural-CBR Case_sellingprice – the predicted valuation of a
Architecture case instance;
Case_weightSet – the set of weights associated
3.1 The Multi-Layer Perceptron ANN Component with each attribute variable such that wi
The multi-layer perceptron (MLP) ANN is a represents the weight of the ith attribute.
powerful neural network model that can be used for
solving approximation, estimation, classification and 3.2.1 Similarity Analysis
prediction problems. Generally, it consists of an input Similarity analysis was done using the nearest
layer, an output layer and one hidden layer. The hidden neighbour algorithm. The similarity measure used was the
layer(s) and the output layer are the processing layers in inverse of weighted normalized Euclidian distance. A
the network where activation takes place. The knowledge similarity score is computed by:
of the network is encoded in the weights connecting the
neurons. Each neuron in an inner layer acts as a linear SIM(X, Y) = 1- DIST(X,Y) (3)
combiner whose summation function is given as:
DIST(X, Y) = (4)
n
Sum = w
0 w
j 1
i xi (1)
Where X and Y are the new and stored case
respectively with n number of attributes while and
are the normalized values for the ith attribute. A
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normalized weight wi is assigned to each attribute based categories, g1, g2, g3..., gk, with their
on contextual experts’ knowledge of the location corresponding Pcbr as P1, P2,.., Pk;
concerned. This calculation is repeated for every stored iii. Take count of the number of cases retrieved in
case in the case base. The cases with the highest similarity each category gi (i = 1...k) and store them as t1,
score (that is up to or above the similarity benchmark t2...tk);
value) are picked as candidates for adaptation in providing iv. Choose category gi with the highest frequency;
explanation for the new case scenario. The algorithm of v. If there exist only one category gi with highest
the Neural-CBR system is given in Figure 2. frequency then take Pcbr of a case in gi as Pvalue
(i.e. final output) else, if there is more than one
category gi with highest frequency, such as gi1,
gi2... gim then compute average value Pave of all
Pim in gi as Pvalue (final output) and as Pcbr for Cnew
.
vi. Next, use descriptions of case attributes
(Case_attributesset) in category gi as explanation
for Cnew (line 9-12).
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Table 3: Showing normalized feature values from Table 1
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matches. The procedure employed by the Neural-CBR are determined. In our specific case, the output of the
system to reach its final conclusion is based on the Neural-CBR system was validated by using a direct
algorithm shown in figure 2. Figures 3-5 show method [38]. In the direct method of expert system
validation a human expert does a quantitative assessment
of the expert system software by engaging it to perform a
simple benchmark problem over a specified period. The
expert then responds to a set of questions about the
software based on past experience. The questions are
quantitative and are based on a 0 (very false) to 5 (very
true) numerical scales. Thereafter, a single numerical
factor results called the Satisfaction Level that ranges from
0 (least satisfied user) to 5 (most satisfied user) is
computed, which is used to rank the expert system
software in terms of its likelihood to satisfy a prospective
end user.
Fig 3: Feature Extraction Interface of the Neural-CBR 4.4.1 Description of the Evaluation Experiment
System The objective of the validation experiment was to
determine the level of users’ satisfaction with the hybrid
Neural-CBR system relative to CBR alone and ANN alone
systems. In order to do this, a real property valuation
system was created that allows the user to alternate
between three system modalities, Neural-CBR, CBR and
ANN, such that, if one of the modality is activated the
other two modalities are automatically disabled. A
comparative assessment of the three system modalities
was then undertaken using some selected human experts
from the real estate industry for the evaluation. The
participants in the experiment were persons with
significant professional experience in the real property
valuation. Fifteen (15) real estate experts drawn from two
firms, Dan Odiete & Co. and Ajeb Associates (both
Fig 4: Network Training Interface of the Neural-CBR located in Benin City, Nigeria) with varying professional
System experience ranging from 2 (lowest) to 15 (highest) years
were selected to participate in the user-based system
usability experiment. Each received a copy of a
questionnaire instrument and had the system to be
evaluated installed for them. The participants who were
people with tangible knowledge of the use of software
were given one-week training on how to make use the
system prior to the commencement of the experiment.
Details of how to switch modalities and to engage the
system in specific modality for operations such as data
preprocessing, training, and prediction were clearly
outlined. In addition, the participants had the license to
engage the system in as many trial sessions as deemed
convenient commencing with the actual assessment.
Moreover, one IT support staff was temporarily assigned
to each company for the trial period of three weeks. The
Fig 5: Prediction and Explanation Interface of the Neural- human experts were asked to give a rating of 0 to 5 of their
CBR System assessment of the performance of the three (Neural-CBR,
CBR, ANN) system modalities covering seven aspects and
4.4 Performance Evaluation of Neural-CBR System a total of sixteen questions. Each question has specific
Evaluation is the process of determining the weight assigned to it, which had the mutual consent of
appropriateness of a specific system relative to its human experts that participated in the experimental
functional requirements and objectives. Validation of an process. Table 7 shows a sample of a typical response to
expert system is conducted by determining whether the the questionnaire test instrument and how the satisfaction
system's outcome is consistent with the conclusions of the score for an evaluator is computed.
human experts. Validation focuses on evaluating the
outcomes rather than the process by which the outcomes
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H0: There is no significant difference in the mean
satisfaction level of the CBR, Neural-CBR, and ANN
systems, and hence the three systems are at par
performance wise.
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31, No. 2, pp 147-164. (2009) AUTHOR PROFILES
[34] Portinale L, Torasso P, Ortalda C and Giardino A Adebola G. Musa is a doctoral
“Using case-based reasoning to focus model-based candidate at Tshwane
diagnostic problem solving”. Proceedings First University of Technology,
European Workshop on Case-Based Reasoning, ed. South Africa. He earns MS and
Richter,Wess, Althoff and Maurer 2:335-340. BS Computer Science at
(1993) Covenant University and
University of Ilorin, Nigeria
[35] Rich E and Knight K “Artificial Intelligence 2nd respectively. His research
ed”. McGraw-Hill, Inc. (1991) interests include the Semantic
Web, Artificial Intelligence and
[36] Rissland E and Skalak D “CABARET: Rule Neural Networks, e-Government. He has to his credit
interpretation in a hybrid architecture”, Int. J. of several research articles in conference proceedings and
Man-Machine Studies, 34(6): 839-887. (1991) refereed journals. He is a member of IITPSA.
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Dr. Olawande Daramola is a
Senior Faculty at Department Olugbara O.O. is a
of Computer and Information Professor of Computer
Sciences, Covenant University Science and Information
Nigeria. His research interests Technology at Durban
include the Semantic Web, University of Technology,
Intelligent Systems, and Durban, South Africa.
Automated Software
Engineering.
He is widely published in top range journals and
conferences. He is a member of ACM, IEEE, and the
Nigerian Computer Society.
Owoloko E. Alfred is a
doctoral candidate at
Covenant University, Ota,
Nigeria. He earned his MS
and BS from the University
of Benin, Nigeria. His
research areas include
stochastic differential
equation to valuation,
application of Neural
Networks to solving real life problems, mathematical
statistics and operation research. He has to his credit
several research articles in refereed journals.
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