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Assignment 2

The document provides temperature data for the last week and calculations for forecasting the high temperature today using different moving averages. It includes: - The actual temperature for each of the last 7 days. - The forecast high temperature for today calculated using a 3 day and 2 day moving average. - Calculations of the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for the 2 day moving average forecasts compared to the actual temperatures.

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32 views6 pages

Assignment 2

The document provides temperature data for the last week and calculations for forecasting the high temperature today using different moving averages. It includes: - The actual temperature for each of the last 7 days. - The forecast high temperature for today calculated using a 3 day and 2 day moving average. - Calculations of the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for the 2 day moving average forecasts compared to the actual temperatures.

Uploaded by

foqia nishat
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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QUESTION # 4.

8
TEMPERATURE FOR THE LAST WEEK
93
94
93
95
96
88
90

REQUIRED:
FORECAST HIGH TEMPRETURE TODAY, USING A 3 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
FORECAST HIGH TEMPRETURE TODAY, USING A 2 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
CALCULATE MAD, BASE ON A 2 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
COMPUTE MSE FOR 2 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
CALCULATE MAPE FOR 2 DAY MOVING AVERAGE

MSE

ACTUAL FORECAST
93
94
93 93.5
95 93.5
96 94
88 95.5
90 92

TOTAL
SOLUTION A

91.3

SOLUTION B

89

SOLUTION C
Chart Title
TEMPERATURE MAD ERRORS
93 93 94 93.5
93 95
93.5 96
94
94
93 93.5 0.5
95 93.5 1.5
96 94 2
88 95.5 7.5 0.5 1.5 2
1 2 3 4 5
90 92 2
Col umn D Col umn E Col u
468.5 13.5
MAD 2.7

SOLUTION D

ERRORS ERROR^2

0.5 0.25
Chart Title
1.5 2.25 80
70
2 4 60
50
7.5 56.25 40
30
2 4 20
10
13.5 66.75 0
1 2 3 4 5 6
13.35
Col umn D Col umn E

SOLUTION E

ERRORS MAPE Chart Title


Col umn B Col umn C Col umn D Col u
120
0.5 0.27%
100
1.5 0.81%
80
2 1.05%
60

40
20
0
120
100

80

7.5 3.91% 60
2 1.14% 40
7.17% 20
1.43%
0
1 2 3 4 5 6

9
Chart Title
95
93.5 96
94 95.5 92
88 90

2 7.5 2
1.5
4 5 6 7
D Col umn E Col umn F

Title

4 5 6 7
Col umn E

rt Title
C Col umn D Col umn E
4 5 6 7

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