Matlab

The document presents a game theory model to analyze the optimal time for two investors, M and N, to enter into a call option contract for IBM stock. It provides the probabilities of the IBM stock price increasing by $10, remaining stable, or decreasing by $5 based on past periods. It asks to construct the game theory model and suggest a solution for both investors based on this information.

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Matlab

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mrusdianto

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B1 B2

A1 4 2
A2 1 3

q 1-q

4p + (1-p) = 2p + 3 (1-p)
3p + 1 = -p + 1
4p = 2
p = 1/2 1-p = 1/2
A1 A2

V = 4 (1/2) + 1/2
A1 = 50% V = 5/2 = 2,5
A2 = 50%
B1 = 25%
B2 = 75%
V = 2.5 M
p
1-p

) = 2p + 3 (1-p) 4q + 2 (1-q) = q + 3 (1-q)

2q + 2 = -2q + 3
4q = 1
q = 1/4 1-q = 3/4
B1 B2
IBM stock is offered at $10 per share.
There are 2 investors, M and N.
M may purchase a call option on IBM from N. The call option gives M
the right to purchase shares of IBM at $100 per share from N at any
time. As the consequence, M could use this option to purchase those
shares at $100 from N, then immediately sell those same shares in
the open market for the prevailing price.
From the previous periods, it is predicted that the probability share
price to: increase $10 is 25%, remain stable is 30%, and decrease $5
is 45%.
Construct the GT model & suggest the solution for both investors.

Saham IBM ditawarkan dengan harga $ 10 per saham. Ada 2 investor, M dan N. M dapat membeli
opsi panggilan pada IBM dari N. Opsi panggilan memberi M hak untuk membeli saham IBM dengan
harga $ 100 per saham dari N setiap saat. Sebagai konsekuensinya, M dapat menggunakan opsi ini
untuk membeli saham-saham itu seharga $ 100 dari N, lalu segera menjual saham-saham yang sama
di pasar terbuka dengan harga yang berlaku.
Dari periode sebelumnya, diperkirakan bahwa harga saham probabilitas untuk: meningkatkan $ 10
adalah 25%, tetap stabil adalah 30%, dan menurunkan $ 5 adalah 45%.
Bangun model GT & sarankan solusi untuk kedua investor.
$5 $10 $20
$10 45% 30% 25%

ives M
t any
e those
es in
hare
se $5
tors.

embeli
M dengan
opsi ini
ang sama

an $ 10
Why you boys should not get marry before 26 years old?
Find the reason in the perspective of game theory by considering:
First love at 15 years old
Too old after more than 45 years old
Natural number

http://www.gametheorystrategies.com/
The answer is surprisingly simple. If there are a number of potential girlfriends, using the letter ‘n
number, then he should reject the first n divided by ‘e’ (e is a key number in mathematics and ha
2.72). He should then accept the next girlfriend after that who is better than all the preceding on
are better than all the earlier ones then he ends up with the last girlfriend.
This is his optimal strategy and he ends up with the best girlfriend as his wife about 37% of the ti
probability of 1 divided by e).
For a bit of fun let’s think about how soon a man (or woman) should get married using this rule.
15 and wants to get married sometime before he is 45. This gives him 30 years to find his optimu
to the theory he should not settle down until at least 30 divided by 2.72 years have gone by. This
years, so he shouldn’t get married before he is 26 otherwise he has reduced his chance of finding
friends, using the letter ‘n’ to represent the
er in mathematics and has a value of about
than all the preceding ones. If none of them
nd.
s wife about 37% of the time (actually with a