PROBABILITY

- is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that an

event will occur or has occurred.

Two conceptual approaches to probability:

1. Classical Probability
2. Relative Frequency Probability
Two conceptual approaches to probability:

1. Classical probability
According to the classical probability rule, the
probability of an event E is equal to the number
of outcomes occurring in event E divided by the total
number of outcomes for the experiment.
P(E)  nf
where:
f = number of outcomes in E
n = total no. of outcomes for the experiment
2. Relative frequency probability
The relative frequencies are not probability but
approximate probabilities.

Marginal Probability
- The probability of a single event without consideration of
any other event.
- Also known as simple probability.
PROPERTIES OF PROBABILITY:
1. The probability of a sample space S is 1.
P(S) = 1
2. The probability of a null set is 0.
P(Φ) = 0
3. The probability of an event E always lie in the range
between zero to 1.
0 < P(E) < 1
4. The sum of the probabilities of all events (or final
outcomes) for an experiment, denoted by ∑ P(Ei), is
always 1.
∑ P(Ei) = P(E1) + P(E2) + … + P(En) = 1
Examples:
.
1. In a deck of 52 cards what is the probability of getting:
a. a heart? b. an ace? c. a red card
→ 1  0.25 → 1  0.0769 → 1  0 .5
4 13 2

2. A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green

and red. After spinning the spinner, what is the probability
of landing on each color?
→ P(of every color)  1
4
3. A glass jar contains 6 red, 5 green, 8 blue and 3 yellow
.
marbles. If a single marble is chosen at random from the
jar, what is the probability of choosing a red marble? a
green marble? a blue marble? a yellow marble?
Ans.
P(red )  3 P(blue)  4
11 11
P( green)  5 P( yellow)  3
22 22
4. Choose a number at random from 1 to 5. What is the
probability that the number chosen is even? What is
the probability that the number chosen is odd?
Ans.
P(even)  2 P(odd )  3
5 5
5. What is the probability of getting 3 aces and 2 jacks in a
.
selection of 5 cards out of 52?
Ans. C  C 24 1
P(E)  4 34 2  
C 2,598,960 108,290
52 5

6. Five of the 100 randomly delivered toys of assorted colors

are found to be green. What is the probability of getting the
color green in the next delivery of toys?
Ans. P(E)  P(next toy is green)  f  5  1
n 100 20
7. All 275 employees of a factory were asked if they are
.
smokers or non smokers and whether or not they are
college graduates. Information regarding this data is
presented below.
College Not a College Total
Graduate Graduate
Smoker 15 50 65
Nonsmoker 90 120 210
Total 105 170 275
If one employee is selected at random from this factory,
find the probability that this employee is a
(a) college graduate (b) nonsmoker
P(E )  105  0.3818 P(E )  210  0.7636
1 275 2 275
8. In the permutation of the word “white” is selected at
random, find the probability that the arrangement:
(a) begins with a consonant;
(b) ends with a vowel;
(c) the consonants and vowels alternating.
Ans.
(a) 0.6 (b) 0.4 (c) 0.1

9. Find the probability that the sum of the numbers obtained

on two rolls of a die is either 5 or 7 or 9?
Ans. P(sum is 5 or 7 or 9) = 0.3889
10. Suppose 40 students in a certain school were asked
whether they are in favor of or against the wearing of
school uniform. Data are shown below.
In favor Against
Male 6 9
Female 17 8
What are the probabilities of the following:
a. Male?
Ans. P(M) = 0.375
b. Female
Ans. P(F) = 0.625
cont. 10. Suppose 40 students in a certain school were
asked whether they are in favor of or against the
wearing of school uniform. Data are shown below.
In favor Against
Male 6 9
Female 17 8
What are the probabilities of the following:
c. In favor
Ans. P(I) = 0.575
d. Against
Ans. P(A) = 0.425
Conditional Probability
- the probability that an event will occur given that the event
has already occurred. If A and B are two event, then the
conditional probability of A is written as
P(A/B) (read as the probability of A given that B has
already occurred).
If A and B are two events, then,

P( A/ B)  P(B and A) and P(B / A)  P( A and B)

P(B) P( A)
where P(A) ≠ 0 and P(B) ≠ 0.
Example of Conditional Probability:
1. At Kennedy Middle School, the probability that a student
takes Technology and Spanish is 0.087. The probability
that a student takes Technology is 0.68. What is the
probability that a student takes Spanish given that the
student is taking Technology?
Ans. P(Spanish/Technology) = 12.79%

2. In a certain survey among 60 males interviewer it is found

45 are in favor of a referendum and 15 against. What is the
probability of in favor given that he is male.
Ans. P(in favor/male) = 0.75
3. The probability that a randomly selected student from a
college is a sophomore is 0.20, and the probability that
a student is a CRS and a sophomore is 0.05. What is
the probability that a student selected at random is a
CRS student given that he/she is a sophomore?
Ans. P(CRS student/sophomore) = 0.25

4. A CRS student estimates that the probability that he will

pass Statistics is 0.6; the probability that he will pass
Physics is 0.5; and the probability that he will pass both
subjects is 0.45. What is the probability that he will pass
Statistics given that he passed Physics also?
Ans. P(S /P)  0.45  0.9
0.5
Mutually Exclusive Events
- Events that cannot occur together.

Independent and Dependent Events

Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of
one does not affect the probability of the other.

In other words, A and B are independent events if either

P(A/B) = P(A) or P(B/A) = P(B).
If the occurrence of one event affects the probability of the
occurrence of the other event, then the two events are said
to be dependent events.
In other words, A and B are dependent events if either
P(A/B) ≠ P(A) or P(B/A) ≠ P(B).
The joint probability of events A and B can be denoted by
P(A∩B) or P(AB).

* If A and B are independent events,

P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B).
Example:
1. A class consists of 10 SLP students, 11 PT students and
12 Psychology students. A student was called in for a
recitation, what is the possibility the student called is an
SLP student and for the next question, a PT student will
be called?
→ P(SLP then PT) = P(SLP) • P(PT) = 10/33 • 11/33
= 10/99 or 10.10%
2. A dresser drawer contains one pair of socks with each of
the following colors: blue, brown, red, white and black.
Each pair is folded together in a matching set. You reach
into the sock drawer and choose a pair of socks without
looking. You replace this pair and then choose another
pair of socks. What is the probability that you will choose
the red pair of socks both times?
Ans. P(red and red) = P(red) · P(red)
= 0.04
If A and B are dependent events,
and A occurs first,
P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B, once A has occurred)
... and is written as ... P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B|A).
Example:
A class consists of 10 SLP students, 11 PT students and 12
Psychology students. A student was called in for a
recitation, what is the possibility the student called is a
Psychology student and for the next question, a Psychology
student will still be called (assuming that a student is
allowed to answer only once)?
→ P(Psych then Psych) = P(Psych) • P(Psych)
= 12/33 • 11/32 = 1/8 or 12.5%
Probability Rules:
Multiplication Rule
The probability that events A and B can happen together is
called joint probability of A and B.
P(A and B)

The probability of the intersection of two events is obtained

by multiplying the marginal probability of one event by the
conditional probability of the second event.

The probability of the intersection of two events of A and B

is P(A and B) = P(A) P(B/A)
Example:
1. A nationwide survey found that 72% of people in the
United States like pizza. If 3 people are selected at
random, what is the probability that all three like pizza?
Ans. 37.32%

2. What is the probability that two male babies will be

born?
Ans. 0.25
Complementary events
The complement of event A (A’), is the event that include all
the outcomes for an experiment that are not in A.
The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes is 1.
→ P(A) + P(A’) = 1

Example:
In a group of 10 students, 4 are med students. If one
student is randomly selected, what is the probability that the
student is not a med student?
Ans. 0.60
Union of Events
* Let A and B be two events defined in a sample space.
The union of events A and B is the collection of all
outcomes that belong either to A or B, or both A and B and
is denoted by A or B.
* The union of events A and B is also denoted
by “A U B”.
Addition Rule
* The method used to calculate the probability of the union
of events is called the addition rule. It is defined as:
The probability of the union of two events A and B is
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

Thus, to calculate the probability of the union of two events

A and B, we add their marginal probabilities and subtract
their joint probability from the sum. Subtract the joint
probability of A and B from the sum of their marginal
probabilities to avoid double counting due to common
outcomes in A and B.
Example:
1. What is the probability of getting a ‘king or heart’ in a
deck of 52 cards?
Ans. P( A or B)  P( A)  P(B)  P( A and B)
 13  4  1
52 52 52
P( A or B)  16  4 or 30.77%
52 13

2. What is the probability of getting a queen or a king card

in a deck of 52 cards?
Ans. 15.38%
3. In a college graduating class of 100 students, 58 studied
math, 70 studied history, and 30 studied both. If one
student is selected at random, what is the probability
that:
a. The student takes math or history?
b. The student does not take either of these
subjects?
c. The student takes history but not math?

Ans. a. 0.98 b. 0.02 c. 0.4

Exercises:
1. A math teacher gave her class two tests. 25% of the
class passed both tests and 42% of the class passed
the first test. What percent of those who passed the first
test also passed the second test?
Ans. P(Second/ First) = 59.52%

2. The probability that it is Tuesday and that a student is

absent is 0.03. Since there are 5 school days in a week,
the probability that it is Tuesday is 0.2. What is the
probability that a student is absent given that today is
Tuesday?
Ans. P(Absent/ Tuesday) = 0.15
3. An CRS student estimates that the probability that he will
pass FOLA is 0.8; the probability that he will pass
Statistics is 0.6; and the probability that he will pass
both subjects is 0.55. What is the probability that he will
pass at least one of the two subjects?
Ans. 0.85

4. Suppose there are 1,800 students, in a certain college

with 240 in elementary, 660 in high school, and 900 in
college. If one student is selected at random, what is the
probability that a student is either in high school or in
college?
Ans. 86.67%
5. What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a
pair of dice is tossed?
Ans. 22.22%

6. The probability of passing Statistics is 0.7, what is the

probability of failing the subject?
Ans. 0.3

7. A card is drawn from a standard deck. Suppose you are

told that the card picked is a spade. What is the
probability that the card drawn is the ace of spades?
1
Ans. 13
8. The probability that Anne can answer all the questions in
.
an exam is 0.25. The probability that Allie can do the
same is 0.75. What is the probability that they could
answer all the questions in the exam?
Ans. 18.75%

9. The result of rolling a die is an even number. What is the

probability that it is a perfect square?
Ans. 1
3

10. If a die is rolled twice, what is the probability of getting 5

in both rolls?
Ans. 361