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2.4 Notes

The document discusses Bernoulli trials, which are experiments with two possible outcomes (success/failure). A sequence of Bernoulli trials is called a binomial experiment. For a binomial experiment with n trials and probability of success p, the probability of getting r successes is calculated as P(X=r) = C(n,r) * pr * (1-p)(n-r), where C(n,r) is the binomial coefficient. The document provides examples of calculating these probabilities using the binomial probability distribution function on a calculator.

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49 views3 pages

2.4 Notes

The document discusses Bernoulli trials, which are experiments with two possible outcomes (success/failure). A sequence of Bernoulli trials is called a binomial experiment. For a binomial experiment with n trials and probability of success p, the probability of getting r successes is calculated as P(X=r) = C(n,r) * pr * (1-p)(n-r), where C(n,r) is the binomial coefficient. The document provides examples of calculating these probabilities using the binomial probability distribution function on a calculator.

Uploaded by

Aashray Singh
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Math 166, Spring 2014

Ruomeng
c Lan

2.4 Bernoulli Trials


Definition: A Bernoulli trial is an experiment such that there are only two
possible outcomes (which we call “success” and “failure”).

Examples of Bernoulli Trials:


a. Flipping a coin and noting whether it lands heads up.

b. Testing a product and noting whether it is defective.

c. Picking a card out of a standard 52-card deck and noting whether the
card is a red card.

d. Picking a marble out of a bag and noting whether the marble is green.

e. Examining a patient and noting whether the result of a particular


disease is positive.
Definition: A sequence of Bernoulli trials is called a repeated Bernoulli
trial or a binomial experiment.

The properties of binomial experiment:


1. The number of trials in the experiment is FIXED.

2. The are TWO outcomes of each trial.

3. The probability of success in each trial is the SAME.

4. The trials are INDEPENDENT of each other.


Example: Determine whether or not the following examples are binomial
experiments.
a. Rolling a dice 5 times and each time, observing the number on it.

b. Rolling a dice 5 times and observing how many 1s occur.

c. Rolling a dice until a 1 appears.

d. Choosing 5 cards, one card at a time, WITHOUT replacement, and


observing the color (red or black).

e. Choosing 5 cards,one card at a time, WITH replacement, and observ-


ing the color (red or black).

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Math 166, Spring 2014 Ruomeng
c Lan

GOAL: Given a Bernoulli trial repeated n times, we want to find the prob-
ability that r successes occur. Notation: P (r) or P (X = r).

Example: A student takes a 5-question multiple choice test by guessing.


Each question has four possible answers and only one is correct. Find the
probability that the student answers exactly 2 question correctly.

Recall: If {E1 , E2 , ..., En } is an independent set, then

P (E1 ∩ E2 ∩ · · · ∩ En ) = P (E1 )P (E2 ) · · · P (En )

Let p be the probability of success in one Bernoulli trial. Then the probabil-
ity of failure in one Bernoulli trial is q = 1 − p. Let X represent the number
of successes. The probability of r successes in a sequence of n Bernoulli
trials is
P (X = r) = C(n, r)pr (1 − p)n−r = C(n, r)pr q n−r
Given p, n and r as above, calculate P (X = r) using calculator:

1. Press 2nd and then VARS

2. Scroll down and select A: binompdf

3. Enter n, a comma, p, another comma, and then r.

4. Close the parentheses and press Enter

Moreover, you can calculate P (X ≤ r) by calculator. You should only re-


place step 2 by Scroll down and select B: binomcdf.

Example: If you pick a card from a standard deck 5 times, with replace-
ment, what is the probability that you will:

a. draw exactly 2 face cards?

b. draw at most 2 face cards?

Example: A final exam has 30 multiple choice questions. Eighteen must


be answered correctly to receive a passing grade. If each question has 4 pos-
sible answers, of which only one is correct, what is the probability a student
guessing at random on each question will pass the exam?

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Math 166, Spring 2014 Ruomeng
c Lan

Example: The probability that a DVD player produced by a company is


defective is estimated to be 0.1. If a sample of 15 DVD players is selected
at random, what is the probability that

a. the sample contains at least 2 defectives?

b. the sample contains between 2 and 5 defectives, inclusive?

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