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Volume VII, Issue 6
December 2013
PERSPECTI VES O N TERRORISM Volume 7, Issue 6
Table of Contents:
Welcome from the Editors ......................................................................4
Announcement: Best PhD Thesis in the Field of (Counter-) Terrorism

Studies Annual Award by the Terrorism Research Initiative .................6
Announcement: TRI/CTSS Vienna Conference.....................................8
I. Articles
Media Metrics: How Arab and Western Media Construct Success and
Failure in the ‘Global War on Terror’....................................................10
by Sarah V. Marsden
Sri Lanka’s Post-Conflict Strategy: Restorative Justice for Rebels and

Rebuilding of Conflict-affected Communities .....................................27
by Iromi Dharmawardhane
Salafi Violence and Sufi Tolerance? Rethinking Conventional Wisdom

...............................................................................................................58
by Mark Woodward, Muhammad Sani Umar, Inayah Rohmaniyah, and Mariani Yahya
Simultaneous Attacks by Terrorist Organisations................................79

by Kathleen Deloughery
II. Policy Notes

Al-Shabaab’s Somali Safe Havens: A Springboard for Terror ..............90
by Josh Meservey
Rethinking International Counterterrorism Assistance to the Greater

Horn of Africa: Toward a Regional Risk Reduction Strategy ............100
by Matthew Schwartz, Liat Shetret, and Alistair Millar
III. Research Notes

Research Note on the Energy Infrastructure Attack Database (EIAD)
.............................................................................................................113
by Jennifer Giroux, Peter Burgherr, Laura Melkunaite
2 December 2013
Risks of Terrorism, Homicide and Illness: a Methodological

Consideration ......................................................................................126
by Richard J. Chasdi
IV. Resources
Literature on the Conflict in Syria (2011 – November 2013) .............137
Compiled and selected by Judith Tinnes
Selected Dissertations and Theses on Terrorism, Counterterrorism

and Political Violence, 1980 – 2013 (available in full-text) ................166
Selected by Eric Price
V. Book Reviews
“Counterterrorism Bookshelf ” – 20 Important Books on Terrorism &
Counterterrorism Related Subjects ....................................................203
by Joshua Sinai
VI. Notes from the Editors

About Perspectives on Terrorism........................................................210
3 December 2013
Welcome from the Editors

Dear Reader,
The Editorial Team of Perspectives on Terrorism is pleased to present to the research

community another issue of our peer-reviewed online journal at www.terrorismanalysts.com.
Perspectives on Terrorism was founded in 2007 by Robert Wesley, President of the Terrorism

Research Initiative (TRI), in collaboration with Alex Schmid and James Forest. We now have
over 120,000 annual visitors to our website from around the world and nearly 4,000 registered
e-mail subscribers, making this the most widely-read publication in terrorism studies. Our
effort to nurture and grow this field of study includes the coordination of several national and
regional networks of PhD thesis writers. In order to stimulate high-quality research we have
now created an annual award for the “Best PhD Thesis in the Field of Terrorism Studies”, and
in early February 2014 TRI will be sponsoring a conference on the conflict in Syria (see below
for details on both of these initiatives).
In this issue of Perspectives on Terrorism we are pleased to present four articles on a variety of
timely topics. First, Sarah Marsden offers a comparative analysis of several hundred Arab and
Western media sources, highlighting their different conceptualisations of what constitutes
‘success’ and ‘failure’ in the ‘War on Terror’. Second, Iromi Dharmawardhane evaluates several
aspects of the post-conflict initiatives in Sri Lanka, and offers recommendations to address
shortcomings and persistent challenges. Third, an international team of scholars led by Mark
Woodward challenge the perception that the Sufi tradition in Islam has always been tolerant
and non-violent while the Salafist tradition is the one consistently associated with intolerance
and violence. Finally, Kathleen Deloughery draws from several incident databases to explain
how and why simultaneous terrorist attacks are more likely to be successful and cause more
fatalities.
This issue of the journal also introduces a new Policy Notes section, in which we will publish
relatively short pieces containing informed analysis and policy recommendations on a variety
of important topics. Josh Meservey inaugurates this section with a timely analysis of Somalia’s
safe havens and their critical importance to al-Shabaab. This is followed by a review of
international counterterrorism assistance to the Horn of Africa, authored by three senior
analysts at the Centre on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation.
Our Research Notes section begins with a description by Jennifer Giroux and colleagues about
a new and important resource on energy security and political violence. Then Richard Chasdi
reviews the methodological issues involved in determining whether or not terrorism poses
similar degrees of risk as other man-made or natural disasters.
In our Resources section, Judith Tinnes offers an extensive and timely list of literature on the
conflict in Syria, and Eric Price has compiled a useful and informative bibliography of
dissertations and theses on terrorism and counterterrorism, written between 1980 and 2013.
4 December 2013
Most titles are ‘clickable’ and guide the reader directly to the full-text versions of the cited
titles. Finally, we conclude with a collection of brief (capsule) book reviews by Joshua Sinai.
This final issue of Volume VII was prepared in the U.S. by the staff of the Center for Terrorism
and Security Studies at the University of Massachusetts Lowell, with special thanks to our
research assistants Suzzette Lopez Abbasciano and Robert Kerins. The first issue of Volume
VIII will be prepared in Vienna, Austria, by Editor-in-Chief Alex Schmid for publication in
February 2014.
Sincerely,
Prof. James J.F. Forest
Co-Editor
December 2013
5 December 2013
Announcement: Best PhD Thesis in the Field of (Counter-)

Terrorism Studies Annual Award by the Terrorism Research
Initiative
Among its portfolio of activities, the Terrorism Research Initiative (TRI) - the non-profit
organization that has published Perspectives on Terrorism for seven years - coordinates
national networks of post-graduate students who work on their doctoral theses in the field of
terrorism/counterterrorism studies. As readers of this journal will recognise, several national
and regional networks have come into existence (e.g. in the United Kingdom, the United
States, Southern Africa, Russia, Norway, the Netherlands and Flemish Belgium) while others
are in the making.
In order to stimulate the search for excellence in academic research, TRI has created an
annual award for the best PhD thesis that has been successfully defended at a university. For
this purpose, a panel of judges consisting of the three directors of TRI – Robert Wesley, Alex P.
Schmid and James J. F. Forest – now invite those who have completed their PhD thesis
between January and December 2013 to submit a copy to the panel no later than the end of
March 2014. The judges will read and compare the doctoral theses we receive and nominate
the finest submission for the ‘Best PhD Thesis in the Field of Terrorism Studies 2013 Award’.
The Award consists of a monetary prize of US $1,000.- and a formal certificate, signed by the
panel of judges, declaring the winner’s name and the title of the thesis. The award winner will
be announced, and a summary of the thesis will be published in the August 2014 issue of
Perspectives on Terrorism. The Terrorism Research Initiative will also assist the award winner
in finding a publisher for his or her thesis so that the full results of the award-winning
research become available to the scholarly community with minimal delay. The August 2014
issue of the journal will also announce the honorable mention of authors whose theses were
judged second and third best.
Eligible for this annual award are scholars who have obtained their PhD degree in the calendar
year 2013 from an institution of higher education anywhere in the world. The thesis must be
submitted in English (either written in English or translated into English) and should be sent
to the chair of the judges panel in electronic form as a PDF. The PhD thesis must focus on
terrorism/counterterrorism or closely related forms of political violence and armed conflict. It
should be the product of in-depth research and show originality in terms of introducing new
methods, theories or data into its analysis. The submitted thesis should be accompanied by a
cover letter in which the author outlines the novelty and/or uniqueness of the thesis and its
findings.
In those cases where a member of the jury is in any way connected to a person submitting a
PhD thesis, the composition of the jury will be changed to avoid a conflict of interest. In such
cases, a qualified scholar from the Editorial Board of Perspectives on Terrorism will be invited
to take his place.
6 December 2013
The judges are looking forward to receiving and reviewing quality submissions for this award
before 31 March 2014. Submissions should be sent to the chair of the panel of judges, Prof. em.
Alex P. Schmid, at < [email protected] >.
7 December 2013
Announcement: TRI/CTSS Vienna Conference

Vienna University, in cooperation with the Terrorism Research Initiative and the Centre for
Terrorism and Security Studies (University of Massachusetts) have organised a conference at
the Academy of Fine Arts (Semper Depot) in Vienna (Austria) on
The Syrian Conflict and the Promotion of Reconciliation and the Implications for
International Security
6 -7 February 2014
The conference seeks to provide an array of Syrian political actors based in Austria and abroad
with an opportunity to offer their insights into the current conflict and explore prospects for
reconciliation. It offers a neutral forum for the exchange of perspectives on the interconnected
issues of the promotion of civil society, political cooperation and bringing violence to an end,
while also addressing their implications for international politics and security. The conference
venue, the Semper Depot of the Akademie der Bildenden Künste, will also host the
photographic exhibition Syrian Perspectives on War.
Conference Agenda
February 6, 2014 (13:30 – 18:00 hours)
13:30 - 14:00 Opening remarks and introductions by Robert Wesley and Nico Prucha,
Terrorism Research Initiative
14:00 - 14:30 Research Briefing by Cengiz Günay, Austrian Institute for International Affairs:
“Syria at the Crossroads of Turkey and the EU”
14:45 – 15:15 Political Activism, Badran Farwati, Political Analyst, Tansiqiyya: “Against all
Odds versus the Regime of al-Assad”
15:15 – 15:45 Supporting Women and Minorities, Marie-Therese Kiriakly, Verein für
Arabische Frauen: “The Role of Minorities in the Syrian Revolution”
16:15 - 16:45 Kurdish Freedom Party (Azadi), Jamal Omari: “The Kurds and the Regime –
Historical Dissent and Future Prospects”
February 7, 2014 (13:30 – 18:00 hours)
14:00 – 14:30 Research Briefing, Rüdiger Lohlker, University of Vienna: “Social Media – A
New Layer in Modern Warfare”
14:45 - 15:15 Islamic Voices of the Revolution, Omer Mushaweh: “The Role of the Muslim
Brotherhood in the Syrian Revolution”
8 December 2013
15:15 – 15:45 National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces (I’tilaf), Kamal
al-Labwani: “Threats for Civil-Society, Reclaiming Authority for the People of
Syria”
17:00 - 17:30 Austrian Muslim Initiative, Tarafa Baghajati: “Syria before and after the Geneva
I and II Talks”
For registration, contact: Nico Prucha at: < [email protected] >.
9 December 2013
I. Articles
Media Metrics: How Arab and Western Media Construct Success and
Failure in the ‘Global War on Terror’
by Sarah V. Marsden
Abstract
The media has played an important role in the ‘Global War on Terror’ “(GWOT), and has
received significant scholarly attention as a result. However, the way in which different media
represent and construct notions of success and failure has been less well examined. In addressing
this gap, this article offers a comparative analysis of several hundred media sources drawn from
Western and English language Arab press outlets, published up until the turn of the decade.
Through this analysis, the paper examines the way in which different sources understand progress
and regress in the conflict. The themes that emerge from this corpus suggest, not only that the two
sets of sources demonstrate different conceptualisations of success and failure, but more
interestingly, that through construction of specific metrics, they betray very different
understandings about the nature of the conflict itself. In turn this constructs quite different
interpretations of what ‘winning’ the ‘GWOT might mean for the protagonists. In a largely
consistent interpretation of the GWOT, Arab media interpret the conflict through the lens of
American efforts to assert power and influence on a global stage. Western media metrics, on the
other hand, evolve from a largely militaristic confrontation, to an ideological conflict, and finally
constructing the GWOT as a global effort to bring down a movement. Notably, according to both
Arab and Western measures, the media sources examined here suggest America is losing.
Keywords: media, influence, counterterrorism, perception
Introduction
The 24-hour news cycle played a key role in defining and constructing the ‘Global War on
Terror’ (GWOT).[1] Efforts to influence the media agenda have seen governments set up
substantial public relation machines to ‘spin’ the news to best effect, and make the case for
their policies.[2] Similarly, al-Qaeda has long recognised the need to fight a media battle
alongside its violent campaign, setting the propaganda battle at the heart of its strategy.[3]
Unsurprisingly therefore, substantial scholarly attention has been paid to the role of the media
in the GWOT.[4] However, there has been comparatively less attention paid to the way in
which different types of media have understood and represented success and failure in the
conflict. What follows addresses this gap, and in doing so takes a comparative approach to
understanding how English language Arab and Western media outlets have constructed
metrics of success and failure in the GWOT.
10 December 2013
The analysis presented below suggests that Arab and Western media outlets interpret progress
and regress in the conflict in different ways. Moreover, the way these differing sources
construct measures of success and failure betray divergent ideas about the very nature of the
conflict itself. Both sets of media construct specific notions of the GWOT which impute the
reasons for the conflict, the motivations of the protagonists and concomitantly, what success
‘looks like’. The metrics used by Western media evolve through the first decade of the conflict,
from a militaristic ‘body-count’ approach, shifting to an ideological war and then to a global
effort to bring down a movement. Arab media interpret the conflict in more geopolitical
terms, through the lens of American hegemony and its efforts to spread power, control vital oil
resources, and support the Israeli state. Through these constructs, they prescribe particular
solutions - one largely military, the other socio-political. Importantly, analysis suggests that
according to both sets of measures, America is losing the GWOT. What follows seeks to
explore how this media output represents success and failure, and how through this, they
construct different interpretative frameworks by which the GWOT is understood. Following a
brief exposition of the methodology employed in the study, a series of measures of progress
and regress are described. The discussion then turns to explore ways in which these measures
construct highly divergent conceptualisations of ‘victory’ in the GWOT.
Methodology
This analysis is based on 192 articles drawn from English language Arab media sources, and
200 drawn from Western media that cover the first 10 years of the conflict. See Tables 1 and 2
for a breakdown of the number of articles drawn from each source over the nine years of
analysis. Because of the focus on English language sources, the specific media outlets were
selected on the basis of somewhat different criteria. Arab sources were largely predetermined
by the availability of English language publications, ‘Western’ sources on the other hand, were
selected to offer insight into primarily American interpretations of success and failure. Hence,
those outlets considered most influential in the major American centres of New York,
Washington and Los Angeles were selected, along with CNN, which has broader reach across
the country. These were supplemented with BBC output, to draw insights from the way these
issues were reported more widely.
11 December 2013
Table 1: Arab Media Data Sources
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 TOTAL
Al Hayat 18 17 13 4 9 6 7 9 83
BBC Monitoring 7 2 9
Arab News 3 4 4 3 14
Al Jazeera 4 8 6 3 4 5 4 34
Asharq Alawsat 8 7 6 5 7 33
Al Arabiya 2 2 5 6 4 19
TOTAL 10 22 25 24 20 23 21 23 24 192
Table 2: Western Media Data Sources
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 TOTAL
CNN 2 3 5 4 3 5 4 2 6 34
BBC 8 8 8 6 8 6 5 9 4 62
Washington Post 3 5 4 4 3 4 4 3 5 35
LA Times 4 3 4 4 3 5 4 3 5 35
NY Times 2 3 4 4 4 3 6 4 4 34
TOTAL 19 22 25 22 21 23 23 21 24 200
Articles were selected through a search of the various sources’ online repositories using the
terms: War on Terror and al-Qaeda. This identified nearly 10,000 individual news articles,
reduced through a series of filters. First, articles were assessed against two criteria: that they
contained sufficient editorial comment, i.e. that they were not solely descriptive news articles,
and second that they were of sufficient length to provide a reasonable amount of data. The
dataset was further refined according to whether the articles made reference to success and/or
failure in the GWOT. A coding frame generated for the purpose was applied to the data
identifying all references to verifiable and unverifiable success and failure with respect to
America and al-Qaeda.
These data were analysed using thematic analysis,[5] an approach involving a reflexive
relationship between the data, prior theoretical knowledge and research experience.
Predominantly an inductive approach, it aims to elucidate patterns in the data, and uncover
the groundwork of understandings at work. In the initial phase of analysis, sources were read
repeatedly, and preliminary categories describing prominent themes were identified. Further
analysis and coding produced sub-themes, which led to a distillation of the data into a number
of coherent themes that are set out in detail below.[6] Thematic analysis allows greater depth
of analysis than techniques such as content analysis, but does not require the much deeper
examination of text that, for example, discourse analysis demands. Given the scope of the
12 December 2013
analysis and the amount of data that was necessary to offer a sufficiently detailed comparative
analysis, thematic analysis offered an appropriate balance of breadth and depth.
In the process of the research, a number of issues emerged which bear consideration. First, it
was challenging to source a comparable number of English language Arab media articles in
the early years of the conflict, something reflected in the uneven sources over the years. Up
until 2004, there were relatively few mainstream Arab media outlets publishing in English. To
compensate for this, sources were drawn from BBC Monitoring’s translation service, and by
over sampling articles from Al-Hayat. Although this means a somewhat different set of
sources, this approach was necessary to ensure similar amounts of data were available for
comparison across the years. Second, there is a liberal bias evident in the Western media
sources.[7] This is important to bear in mind when interpreting the results, as they do not
purport to offer a cross section of the media, but rather focus on particular sources considered
to share a largely liberal political stance. Similarly, there is something of a ‘Western’, or at the
very least, Saudi bias in the Arab media data. Al Hayat, Arab News, al-Arabiya and Asharq
Alawsat are all financed, supported or based in Saudi Arabia. This has implications for the
extent to which the analysis presented below can be said to relate to wider Arab perspectives
represented in Arabic language media, a subject which demands further investigation. It is
also important to recognise the broad designations of ‘Arab’ and ‘Western’ media are used as
‘shorthand’ for the different sources. Here, ‘Western’, largely means American and whilst still
encompassing a range of sources, is perhaps more homogenous than the Arab press, which
represents a somewhat more diverse source.
Therefore, this article focuses primarily on the dominant themes that emerged through
analysis. Whilst this potentially masks important minority views and debates, in offering an
overview of the most frequently discussed metrics, the paper focuses on those issues
considered most important in the media. With this in mind, what follows draws out the main
features of the discourse through the years of the GWOT, to shed light on how different media
sources interpret and understand success and failure in the conflict.
Western Media Metrics

A unifying feature of Western media discourse on the GWOT is the lack of clarity over
appropriate ways to measure and conceptualise the conflict.[8] As the GWOT progresses,
different types of metrics accumulate, which demonstrate a shifting notion of the ‘enemy’ and
the character of the war. The early focus on military measures is supplemented in the
early-2000s by the ‘war of ideas’, and the related battle for hearts and minds, which in turn
evolves into the language of a global insurgency. These different paradigms paint a shifting
picture. Depending on the measures used, journalists infer al-Qaeda is stronger than ever,
others that the US is making gains. Almost all recognise the difficulty of ‘measuring’, in any
meaningful way, who is ‘winning’ the GWOT. The following discussion highlights the
evolution of Western media portrayals of success and failure.
13 December 2013
Metrics of Violence and Military Conflict

The ubiquity of militaristic metrics reflects the language frame of the ‘Global War on Terror’.
Such a conceptualisation makes tactical measures highly salient, and they are common in
Western media efforts to understand progress. The exceptional nature of the conflict and the
necessity for a new and uncompromising military response is particularly prevalent in the
aftermath of 9/11. As Michael Kelly observed:
[S]ome (mostly on the left) have persisted in the delusion that we are involved
here in something that can be put into some sort of context of normality – a crisis
that can be resolved through legal or diplomatic efforts, or handled with United
Nations resolutions, or addressed by limited military ‘reprisals’.[9]
Through this frame, political, social and diplomatic solutions are excluded, thereby prioritising
a militaristic and retributive response to 9/11. Such an approach is reflected in congruent
measures including ‘body counts’, applied to al-Qaeda, the Taliban, other (often ill-defined)
‘enemy’ actors, as well as US and coalition forces. Military metrics in Afghanistan, and then
Iraq, include measures of ‘collateral damage’; geographical control; stabilising military gains;
shifting levels of violence; number of terrorist attacks; and number of enemy fighters.
Disrupting al-Qaeda’s command and control structure and its training and organisational
apparatus, and keeping them ‘on the run’ are also regularly applied to assessments of progress.
Evidence of success against these measures applies to the home front as well as the battlefields
of Iraq and Afghanistan, with the absence of attacks on the US homeland regularly rehearsed
as a measure of the GWOT’s positive impact.
Periodically ‘scorecards’ are produced which identify a range of factors, including the number
of convictions; detainees in Guantanamo; the financial cost of the conflict; and number of
civilians killed. These can be critical, for example, noting the number of detainees who have at
some point been at Guantanamo (775) vs. the number of detainees convicted (0).[10]
However, they still largely reflect a militarised, counterterrorism framework (such lists do not,
for example, detail the number of cross-cultural exchanges undertaken, or shifts in foreign
policy). In concentrating so heavily on military factors, the media support the idea that the
conflict can best be resolved with violence, measured through battlefield victories or failures.
Although this conceptualisation is particularly prevalent early on in the conflict, it maintains
throughout the years, tracking initial ‘victory’ in Afghanistan and Iraq, and their deterioration
into bloody insurgencies.
The War of Ideas

The ‘war of ideas’ became increasingly prominent from 2004 onwards. In this measure, al-
Qaeda the organisation becomes al-Qaeda the theory, a ‘jihadist ideology [which] has spread
like a virus around the world’.[11] Against this ideological threat, the US is said to need a
defence, ‘a story of its own to counter the one told by opponents, who argue that we are an
14 December 2013
occupier with designs to steal [Iraq’s] wealth and suppress its faith’.[12] Described as the
‘fourth war’ (alongside Iraq, Afghanistan and the international war against al-Qaeda), the war
of ideas is considered vitally important but largely neglected by the Bush administration.
Implicated in this are interim metrics, exemplified in a quote by an anonymous senior military
official: ‘[i]f this is a global battle for hearts and minds, we haven’t even stood up an army yet’.
[13] Hence, the need for a vehicle to gain leverage in the ideological war can be seen as a
further measure of progress.
Although the ideological battle is poorly defined, it is possible to discern three sub-themes.
The first assesses how successful the West is at communicating the ‘real’ reason for US action
in the face of 9/11, and by extension, persuading the audience of the ‘true (positive) nature’ of
America. For example, that the Iraq invasion was designed to free the region of a tyrant, track
down Weapons of Mass Destruction, and spread freedom and democracy for the benefit of the
Iraqi people. Furthermore, that it was not designed to control oil, expand Western hegemony,
and conduct a religious crusade against Islam. The second, and much less commonly
discussed set of measures, are largely political and social, and are described by Michael
Scheuer in an interview with the BBC:
‘Bin Laden is attacking us because a specific set of US policies that have been in
gear for 30 years and haven’t been reviewed, haven’t been debated, haven’t been
questioned.’ … He cited the apparently unquestioning US support for Israel;
America's presence on the Arabian peninsula; and support for regimes perceived
as oppressing Muslims and for Muslim ‘tyrannies’.[14]
Efforts to attack al-Qaeda’s message are a final set of measures, including attempts to degrade
public support for al-Qaeda and stem the tide of recruitment and radicalisation, particularly
as the Iraq war deteriorates. However, clear metrics are hard to discern, beyond efforts to
promote ‘acceptable’ and ‘moderate’ Muslim voices, and Bush’s ‘vague pledge to spread
democracy’.[15] Despite this, they are considered vital and are increasingly described as
superordinate to the militaristic ‘body count’ measures discussed above. According to Daniel
Benjamin and Steve Simon:
Despite the increasingly frequent avowals from Bush and his aides that we are
fighting, in his words, a ‘hateful ideology’, the sad fact is that the United States
still has not provided that opposing narrative. Indeed, it is still fighting against
individual men and measuring progress accordingly. By doing so, it continues to
foster the notion that our opponents are finite in number and destructible and
that, on a good day, we will wipe them out.[16]
15 December 2013
Hearts and Minds

Closely linked to the war of ideas is success in the battle for ‘hearts and minds’, establishing
‘the battle for public opinion [as] a new front for the Bush administration.’[17] Whilst popular
support was largely taken for granted in the early days of the GWOT, over time, the
importance of – largely unfavourable – Muslim public opinion comes to the fore: ‘as polling …
demonstrates, the war in Iraq has severely damaged the already poor American image in the
Islamic world, and more Muslims are thinking in the terms of the jihadists. Despite our claims
to be liberators, they see the U.S. as the enemy of Islam, eager to destroy the faith and
subjugate its people.’[18] This becomes an increasing concern. International Pew polls are
pored over in the press, drawing out a largely hostile set of attitudes towards the US, a subject
the government was not keen to dwell on as one journalist writing in the Los Angeles Times
puts it: ‘[o]ne metric that administration officials don't like talking about involves how people
in other countries view the U.S.’[19]
Human rights and the impact on civil liberties are important features of the battle for hearts
and minds. Western press discourse draws out the increasing dissonance between the values
America purports to promote and its behaviour. Measures of Western public support, the
opinions of the judiciary and international partners, as well as Muslim public opinion are all
used to assess progress, becoming a prominent feature of media commentary: ‘[d]oubts,
division and defections have developed among American allies. For many around the world,
sympathy for the United States has changed into suspicion and, for some, even into hatred.
The prisons at Guantanamo Bay and Abu Ghraib, the treatment of prisoners, secret prisons
and rendition flights all added to this feeling.’[20]
Global Insurgency and the ‘Homegrown’ Threat

Epitomised by John Arquilla’s analogy: ‘[w]e have taken a ball of quicksilver,’ … ‘and hit it with
a hammer’, [21] the notion of al Qaeda as a violent social movement begins to take hold in
2004, with the idea of a ‘global jihadist insurgency’ becoming increasingly entrenched as the
conflict progresses. In response, an international set of measures are set out to address the
threat, described in existential terms: ‘Islamic terrorism may have metastasized into a cancer
of independent terrorist cells that, while claiming inspiration from Al Qaeda, no longer
require its direction, finance or advice.’[22] This ‘new model of Islamic terrorism’, [23] comes
to include the phenomenon of ‘homegrown terrorists’ – an increasing preoccupation of the
Western media. Initially confined to the Muslim world, its spread to Europe further expands
the threat: ‘[s]o now we face a world of ideologically driven homegrown terrorists – free
radicals unattached to any formal organization.’[24]
The Limits of American Power

Midway through the decade, a metric reflecting America’s declining ability to project power
emerges, leading to speculation about ‘a crisis of American leadership in the world.’[25]
16 December 2013
Related to the battle for hearts and minds, the impact of the GWOT is understood in terms of
US standing in the world. Encompassed within this is its perceived legitimacy as a force for
good, the ability to project power at the state level, and the image of America in the eyes of its
own people. The result is a reflective turn that sees commentators compare US prestige and
power before and after 9/11, largely blaming the Iraq war for America’s weakening position.
For instance, as Michael Hirsch notes:
[A]n administration that had sought to reassert U.S. power now finds itself
projecting weakness. An America that was at the top of its game internationally
on Sept. 10, 2001 has squandered its prestige. Iraq is draining the most powerful
Army in history, America’s moral standing in the world is diminished, and our
policies, according to the CIA’s own analysis, may have only helped to foment the
jihadi movement globally. We possess less leverage over the nuclear-minded states
of Iran and North Korea.[26]
A further related issue is the potentially long-term impact on the character of the United
States and its institutions: ‘the price of this president’s military and domestic overreach has
been highest in the loss of faith in America itself, in the values and institutions that have
historically defined this nation.’[27] Measures of progress question whether the US is true to
its own image of a free, liberal democracy. Debates over torture, rendition, civil liberties and
the power of the executive all feature heavily. Interestingly, ‘success’ against these measures
shifts as the conflict goes on, reflecting public and political debates about the relative
importance of different values. In the aftermath of 9/11, protecting the homeland was the
number one priority, which meant sometimes advocating suspension of, for example, habeas
corpus rights. However, as the conflict progresses, success becomes (re)aligned with defending
traditional components of liberal democracy. According to Michael Ignatieff:
When terrorists strike against constitutional democracies, one of their intentions

is to persuade electorates and elites that the strengths of these societies … are
weaknesses … If this is the logic of terror, then democratic societies must find a
way to renew their belief that their apparent vulnerabilities are actually a form of
strength. [28]
Arab Media Metrics

Unlike Western sources, the Arab media portray a more consistent interpretation of the
GWOT, with the nature of the metrics remaining relatively stable over the years of analysis.
Measures are conceptualised from the perspective of US and Arab governments, and that of
the Muslim peoples, stipulating appropriate responses from civil and political standpoints.
This involves defending Islam from those who seek to use it to promote violence, and from
17 December 2013
Western attack. Importantly, much greater attention is given to the social, political and
economic influences on the origins and evolution of the GWOT, and their interaction with US
policy, as one observer in al-Arabiya put it:
It is impossible in analytical or historical terms to separate the four main strands

of sentiment and policy that have given birth to the contemporary Salafist
terrorist movements we all suffer today: dictatorial or merely corrupt and
incompetent Arab and Asian governments; violent and colonial Israeli policies;
hypocritical and Israeli-influenced American policies that often manifest
themselves in warfare; and the consequent, more recent phenomenon of
demeaned and disoriented young Arab-Asian immigrants in Europe.[29]
The behaviour of political leaders is weighed through the lens of different measures. For
example, Bush is criticised for prioritising a military response over political reform and social
development, whilst Obama is initially praised precisely because of this change in emphasis:
‘binding himself politically to the course of diplomacy and negotiations whereas Bush bound
himself militarily to the course of the war in Iraq and the war on terror.’[30] What follows
charts the primary themes by which success and failure has been conceptualised in the Arab
media, beginning with the need to defend Islam and address perceived ‘root causes’ of
terrorism, moving on to reflect on US policy in the Middle East and the extent to which the
GWOT has made the world a safer place, and finally applying the measure of whether
America has upheld the standards of liberal democracy it purports to represent.
Defence of Islam
Defending Islam and protecting Muslim identity are important issues that recur in the Arab
media. Focused on the effort to avoid Islam being conflated with terrorism, the discourse
distances mainstream Islam from al-Qaeda, reflecting an effort to protect Islam against
Western polemic. Metrics therefore include promoting ‘correct’ interpretations of Islam, and
protecting Muslims from being influenced by al-Qaeda’s ideology. Through their commentary,
journalists self-consciously seek to develop and defend a ‘‘unified Arab position’ to protect
pan-Arab identity against ‘Islamic extremism’ and Bin-Ladin’s views.’[31]
Religious, political and civil constituencies are all urged to respond to the threat to Islam, and
are berated when they are perceived to fail: ‘[t]he war on terror has reached London.
Undoubtedly, its first victim is the Muslim population. Why is it then that, unlike the run up
to the war in Iraq, no one single soul, not even a British Muslim, has taken to streets in protest
against the spread of terrorism in the capital?’ [32] Whilst not necessarily constructing the
GWOT as a ‘religious war’, such themes reflect a desire to defend Islam and counter the
growing relationship drawn between terrorism and Islam: ‘Muslims and their religious
institutions have a major role in portraying the true Islam and breaking the artificial link
18 December 2013
between it and terrorism, in addition to getting rid of the effects of 9/11. The U.S. should also
halt all the generalizations; for bin Laden is not all the Arabs, and Taliban is not all Islam.’[33]
Addressing ‘Root Causes’

The need to tackle ‘root causes’ is repeatedly discussed as the best way to prevent the
alienation described as feeding terrorism, thus prioritising non-military solutions: ‘America
should have been more restrained and patient, and given diplomacy a chance to succeed …
[and] root out the cause of the disease instead of dealing with its symptoms.’[34] The primary
causes of terrorism established in the metrics are social, economic and political, and include
the Israel-Palestine conflict. This refutes the ideological and religious roots the West are
thought to blame: ‘[t]errorism is a symptom of other ailments and distortions, and a tool that
fanatics use to express themselves and change conditions in society. It is not an ideology that
springs out of purely religious milieus and it can be defeated and eliminated only if its
underlying causes are recognized and seriously addressed.’[35] Measures of progress are
therefore ‘mid and long term approaches, aimed at resolving political crises in order to deprive
the terrorists of any legitimacy. This is why tackling the problems of oppression and
occupation, along with bolstering development, education and the attainment of a better life,
will surely lead to shrinking the human pool that feeds extremism.’[36]
At the heart of much of the Arab media discourse on the GWOT, the Israel-Palestine conflict
is one of the primary lenses through which progress and regress is understood. The need to
resolve the conflict is both intrinsic and instrumental, perceived as a way of undermining the
legitimacy of the ‘fanatics’, as well as serving long-term US strategy in the Middle East and
softening Muslim public opinion towards America. Conversely, Israeli ‘terrorism’ and ‘Zionist
propaganda’ are conceptualised as impediments to addressing the root causes of the terrorism
America experienced.
Despite this heavy emphasis on addressing terrorism’s social and political antecedents, there is
debate about the implications of claiming these to be causes of terrorism. For example,
discussing fundraising which supports terrorism, one journalist argues: ‘[we] the Muslims,
especially the Arabs, are really quite surprising. We participate in the crimes, [through giving
money] and then we justify them by our solidarity with the oppressed people and call these
justifications humanitarian positions. But when we find out that these crimes actually killed
people, we do not even apologize.’[37] Hence, the extent of Muslim responsibility for
terrorism, and the need to stop the funding streams that support it are also operationalised as
metrics. Although this is a weaker theme, measures of progress therefore look inwards to the
political and civil responsibility of Arabs and Muslims, as well as outward to American and
Israeli policy.
19 December 2013
U.S. Policy in the Middle East

The Iraq war, in particular, is seen through the lens of America’s global political ambitions.
Described as ‘Bolshevism’, Nazism, colonialism, and imperialism, US foreign policy is
conceptualised as ‘a plan to extend America's hegemony, which means that it is a proposal to
poison the area and delay its development and needed reforms.’[38] Metrics are conceived as
the ability of the US to satisfy its geopolitical ambition. In particular, the effort to secure Iraq’s
oil, strengthen Israel’s position in the region, and expand US influence and secure its position
as the global hegemon. Progress against these aims marks failure for the people of the region
but success for America’s GWOT.
There is a paradox in that the US is generally depicted as wishing to ‘consolidate its hegemony
over world affairs as the sole superpower’, [39] but in so doing further degrades its image in
the Arab world. The implication is either that the US cares little for its public perception,
prioritising power over popularity, or that ‘the regnant American ideology is still undergirded
by the view that U.S. power is fundamentally benign and altruistic.’[40] Ultimately, the impact
of Iraq on the regional political situation is seen as a ‘further weakening of the region’s States
and creating better circumstances for the American’s attempt to nibble at the region’s
fringes.’[41]
Making the World a Safer Place?

Early in the conflict, Arab media reflect on the likelihood that America’s actions are liable to
make the world less safe in the long run. Metrics assessing this include the number of terrorist
attacks, the strength of militant groups, political instability, and the negative impact on public
opinion, all of which are considered likely to provoke the violence the GWOT purported to try
and eradicate: ‘[the] US government initiated military action today ... This action may result in
strong anti-American sentiment and retaliatory actions against US citizens and interests
throughout the world by terrorists and those who are sympathetic to or otherwise support
terrorism.’[42]
According to one assessment of the ability of militant groups to organise and recruit: ‘the overt
wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and the covert wars in Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen are mostly
inflaming anger and providing new recruits for al-Qaeda and its mutations, making
intelligence gathering and ‘terror prevention’ ever more impossible.’[43] Assessed by levels of
geopolitical stability: ‘Iran is on the verge of creating a nuclear bomb, China is protecting
Sudan, Russia is backing Syria, Hamas is occupying a third of the new Palestine, Iraq is in the
hands of extremist religious figures and Al Qaeda is present all over the world.’[44] And
measured by the amount of terrorism: ‘[e]ver since the US declared a war against terror, the
phenomenon has been on the rise, not the decline, and the number of suicide operations has
grown by many times over. The war on terror has failed and this failure will continue because
the US is not treating the causes. Instead, the US has helped the phenomenon expand.’[45]
20 December 2013
Maintaining Liberal Democratic Standards

America’s commitment to the standards it purports to represent is an important factor in Arab
media discourse. Failure to do so is presented as likely to have knock-on effects for a range of
factors, including terrorist recruitment; setting standards for state behaviour; Arab public
opinion; and civil liberties and human rights. In addition, it is portrayed as fulfilling the
terrorists’ aims of provoking a response that is antithetical to the qualities America believes it
embodies: ‘al Qaeda’s war will succeed as long as it drives the superpower to act as a renegade
state.’[46] One writer sets out why he believes political reform and maintaining the standards
of liberal democracy are side-lined in favour of a more aggressive counter-terrorism approach,
and why he thinks this balance is so important:
In the Arab world, there is no heritage of freedom, but there is a long heritage of
inflexibility and misuse of state violence. That is why respecting the human, his
rights and freedoms were priorities of any political reform. … As long as America’s
primary ‘interest’ is fighting terrorism, it will be ready to bargain with reform.[47]
Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo, extraordinary rendition and torture are all cited as examples of
America’s failure in the GWOT. Through these abuses, America provides ‘a model for Israel’s
indiscriminate violence against civilians, and its breach of international humanitarian law …
[because] When the world’s superpower creates conditions of international anarchy by
destroying the checks and balances of the international system, lesser powers feel free to
follow suit.’[48] Conversely, positive progress would see: ‘the restoration of the right moral
authority to the world that holds the dignity of human life in the highest esteem.’[49] On the
international stage, the failure to do so is presented as degrading US capital in the world,
reducing the chances of long-lasting peace, and at the national level is considered likely to
increase the gaps between communities, ultimately working in the militant’s favour.
Discussion
The GWOT has been described as a ‘macro-frame’ within which the political debate takes
place.[50] Although both Arab and Western media critique the GWOT concept, no alternative
paradigm competes with it as an organising construct, remaining the predominant frame by
which the actions of a diverse array of agents, identity groups and causes are understood. The
GWOT therefore comes to be described as an ‘Orwellian nightmare, an ill-defined conflict
with a fractious group of terrorists that seems to be ever-escalating.’[51] Many of these issues
demonstrate the well-worn debate over declaring war against a tactic, as one journalist puts it:
‘President Franklin Roosevelt … did not declare a war against U-boats and kamikaze
pilots.’[52] Consequently, the GWOT construct comes to be portrayed as damaging to the
project it set out to encapsulate. Reflecting this, it became a contested term, its increasingly
problematic nature marked in journalistic discourse by surrounding it in quotation marks,
putting it in italics or adding prefixes such as the ‘so-called’ War on Terror. Despite this, both
21 December 2013
sets of media operate within the GWOT framework, developing distinct discourses in the
metrics they set out, and making different issues about the character and reasons for the war
salient. This is important as the audience sees ‘what the system and frames within them allow
us to see’ [53] through a press which mediates between social and political actors and the
public.[54]
Although the GWOT came to comprise multiple conflicts, [55] it began with an act of
terrorism. In response, the US government had a range of options – political and diplomatic
initiatives, economic measures, overt military action, covert operations, and law enforcement.
[56] All of these ‘instruments of statecraft’ are represented in the GWOT. However, Western
and Arab media give different priorities to these various approaches in their discussion of
success and failure. For the Western media, the conflict was a confrontation with a global
‘phantom enemy’ waged through covert and overt military operations, alongside a public
relations effort. For the Arab media, the GWOT was an extension of US power and a result of
social, political and economic ‘root causes’, implying political and diplomatic responses.
These differing ideas about the nature of the war are reproduced in the measures used to assess
progress, and importantly, reflect different concepts of victory. The American government
approach was predominantly militaristic, something echoed in the Western media.[57] Hence,
metrics of violent conflict are the most common way of understanding success and failure in
the Western press, and resonate in the war of ideas and the battle for hearts and minds.
Achievement against these measures lies in the audience accepting that a military response to
9/11 was appropriate, and that with success will come the ‘hearts and minds’ of Muslim, Arab,
and Western audiences. ‘Winning’ therefore involves US military victory on a global scale,
alongside the acceptance of an assertive American power, able to attract public support for its
version of global governance. In focusing on the social, political and economic aspects of the
conflict, the Arab media instead concentrate on the perceived causes of terrorism and longer-
term solutions. In this construction, a positive outcome involves tackling important socio-
political issues, including the Israel-Palestine conflict and American military interventionism.
Nevertheless, despite conceptualising success and failure in very different ways, both sets of
media normalise the GWOT as an organising framework. In so doing, they produce and
reproduce particular discourses about the nature of the conflict that embed boundaries
between widely dispersed identity groups. For example, Mona Makram Obeid, writing in Al
Hayat suggested that ‘the U.S. under the current administration seems to be dividing the
world in two: the civilized world and the developing world (the other world) that should be
changed by force, without any consideration for the value of cultural specificities.’[58] Whilst
Roger Hardy for the BBC argued that ‘[w]hile coping with Muslim suspicion of the West, the
president also has to deal with the other side of the coin – Western suspicion of Islam. Many
still believe that what’s under way is a clash of civilisations.’[59]
In their construction of the conflict, the media frame their audience’s experience of events and
normalise particular sets of responses. As Richard Jackson argues ‘the language of the ‘war on
22 December 2013
terrorism’ normalises and reifies the practice of the ‘war on terrorism’’ (italics in original).[60]
Culturally and politically bound, [61] Arab and Western media perspectives naturalise US
policy in the GWOT, but in crucially different ways. The Western media normalise military
conflict as a largely appropriate response given the existential threat from a globalised enemy,
and the concomitant need to protect the homeland. The Arab media naturalise these same
responses as a by-product of American desire to assert its global power and secure the
resources and political capital that go with it. In this way, it is possible to see how particular
attributes of the actors come to be associated with specific issues: US hegemony with violent
conflict and occupation, and international terrorism with the need to assert global power and
increase military reach.
Discussion of al-Qaeda’s aims and achievements is comparatively overlooked. Coverage is

dominated by US actions, demonstrating that the GWOT framework takes America as the
primary agent. This means it is largely through US progress and regress that success and
failure in the GWOT is understood. In this regard, both Arab and Western media suggest that
at the turn of the decade, America is losing. However, they present different reasons for why
this is the case. For the Western press, America’s military project has led to a degradation of
US power and standing in the world, eroded its image of itself, and has betrayed those
standards it wished to impart to other countries. The Arab press perceive failure in the
misdirection of power; America is losing because it prioritised a military response over
working for social and political change, and by asserting its hegemony through military might.
By most of these metrics, the US is judged to have failed. Despite the absence of a major attack
on the American homeland, the world is widely presented as a less safe place for America and
its allies, and the Arab and Muslim peoples. Notably, the main area of synergy between the
two sets of media is the need to focus on human rights, democracy and freedom in order to
win the GWOT. As one journalist writing in Al Arabiya puts it: ‘[t]he major reason that the
massive wave of sympathy for Bush and the US following 9/11 has changed to worldwide anti-
Americanism, was that the US abandoned its core values in pursuit of the terrorists.’[62]
Comparative interpretations across such a range of diverse and dynamic sources are bound to
neglect important nuance and context. However, in examining the way Western and Arab
media conceptualised metrics of success and failure in the years when the GWOT paradigm
was at its most salient, this article has demonstrated not only that different sources construct
different metrics, but also that they develop different notions of success and failure. Through
this, they come to normalise the US response to international terrorism by seeing the GWOT
as either a military or a geo-political confrontation. Above all else, this analysis demonstrates
the power of the ‘Global War on Terror’ as an organising framework by which an array of
actors’ behaviour is interpreted and contextualised.
About the Author: Sarah Marsden is a Lecturer in Terrorism Studies at the Handa Centre for
the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, University of St Andrews. Her current work
examines the social and political outcomes of terrorism, considering both its ineffectiveness, and
exploring why individuals and militant groups move away from violence.
23 December 2013
Support for this research was provided by the Department of Homeland Security, Science and
Technology Directorate, through the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and
Responses to Terrorism (START). Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in
this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department
of Homeland Security. The author would like to thank Rashmi Singh for her support in the
preparation of the paper, and Daniel Stojanovski for his valuable work compiling the data on
which this analysis is based.
Notes
[1] Cottle, S. (2006). Mediatizing the Global War on Terror: television’s public eye. In A. P. Kavoori and T. Fraley, (Eds.), Media, terrorism, and
theory: a reader, (pp. 19-48). Lanham, MA: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers Inc.
[2] Heibert, R. E. (2003). Public relations and propaganda in framing the Iraq war: a preliminary review. Public Relations Review, 29, (3),
243-255.
[3] Zawahiri famously stated that ‘We are in a battle, and more than half of this battle is taking place in the battlefield of the media. . . .[W]e
are in a media battle for the hearts and minds of our Umma.’ (July, 2006). See Payne, K. (2009). Winning the battle of ideas: propaganda,
ideology, and terror. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 32, (2), 109-1128.
[4] See, for example: Lewis, J. (2006). Language wars: The role of media and culture in global terror and political violence. Chippenham: Pluto
Press; van der Veer, P. and Munchi, S. (Eds.) (2004). Media, war and terrorism: Responses from the Middle East and Asia. London: Routledge.
Jackson, R. (2005). Writing the war on terrorism: Language, politics and counter-terrorism. Bath: Manchester University Press. DiMaggio, A. R.
(2008). Mass media, mass propaganda: Examining American news in the ‘War on terror.’ Lanham MD: Lexington Books.
[5] Braun, V. and Clarke, V. (2006). Using thematic analysis in psychology. Qualitative Research in Psychology, 3, 77-101.
[6] (Miles & Huberman, 1994).
[7] Groseclose, T. and Milyo, J. (2005). A measure of media bias. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, CXX, (4), 1191-1237.
[8] The range of analogies applied are just one indication of this, ranging from the Cold War, the Vietnam War and World War II, as well as
efforts to paint the GWOT as an entirely ‘new war’: ‘[t]here are no historical precedents, no flattering parallels with Churchill or JFK that can
be readily appropriated now. We have to figure this one out for ourselves.’ (italics added). Judt, T. (2002, October, 20). The wrong war at the
wrong time. The New York Times. Retrieved from: http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/20/opinion/the-wrong-war-at-the-wrong-time.html
[9] Kelly, M., (2001, 10 October). With a serious and large intent. The Washington Post. Retrieved from: http://docs.newsbank.com/s/
InfoWeb/aggdocs/UKNB/0EF1091707520A89/0F8BFF68D3921800
[10] Cole, D. and Lobel, J., (2007, 18 November). Are we safer?: A report card on the war on terror. Los Angeles Times. Retrieved from: http://
www.latimes.com/media/acrobat/2007-11/33860990.pdf
[11] Corera, G., (2004 28 September). Analysis: does Bin Laden still count? BBC. Retrieved from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/
3688282.stm
[12] Benjamin, D. and Simon, S., (2005, 3 October). How not to win the war on terror. Los Angeles Times. Retrieved from: http://
articles.latimes.com/2005/oct/03/opinion/oe-benjamin3
[13] Hirsch, M., (2005, 11 September). 9/11-and counting: four years in, no clear plan. The Washington Post. Retrieved from: http://
www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/09/AR2005090902473.html
[14] Corera, G., (2004, 24 November). War on terror ‘vanishes from agenda.’ BBC. Retrieved from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/
americas/4034833.stm
[15] Hirsch. 9/11 and counting. Op .cit.
[16] Benjamin and Simon. How not to win. Op. cit.
[17] BBC, (2006, 17 February). ‘US losing media war to al-Qaeda.’ BBC. Retrieved from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/
4725992.stm
[18] Benjamin, D., (2003, 11 September). Two years later, is terror still spreading?: We need an antidote for a Muslim ideology that breeds
ever more radicalism. Los Angeles Times. Retrieved from: http://articles.latimes.com/2003/sep/11/opinion/oe-benjamin11
[19] McManus, D., (2006, 10 September). Is the U.S. winning this war? Los Angeles Times. Retrieved from: http://articles.latimes.com/2006/
sep/10/nation/na-terror10
[20] Reynolds, P. (2006, 8 September). ‘War on terror’ loses clear direction. BBC. Retrieved from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/
5319522.stm
[21] Danner, M., (2005, 11 September). Taking stock of the forever war. The New York Times.
24 December 2013
[22] Ignatieff, M., (2004, 2 May). Lesser evils. The New York Times. Retrieved from: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/02/magazine/lesser-
evils.html?scp=21&sq=%22war+on+terror%22+al+qaeda&st=nyt
[23] Frantz, D., Meyer, J., Rotella, S. and Stack, M. K., (2004, 26 September). The new face of al Qaeda: Al Qaeda seen as wider threat. Los
Angeles Times. Retrieved from: http://articles.latimes.com/2004/sep/26/world/fg-qaeda26
[24] Bergen, P., (2006, 2 July). Al-Qaeda, still in business. The Washington Post. Retrieved from: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/
content/article/2006/06/30/AR2006063001342.html
[25] Hardy, R. (2005, 24 November). Bush war critics find their voice. BBC. Retrieved from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/
4467042.stm
[26] Hirsch. 9/11 and counting. Op. cit.
[27] LA Times Editorial Board (2007, 11 September). What we’ve lost. Los Angeles Times. Retrieved from: http://www.latimes.com/news/
opinion/la-ed-war11sep11,0,5040527.story
[28] Ignatieff. Lesser evils. Op. cit.
[29] Khouri, R.G., (2008, 10 September). Intemperance keeps terrorism alive. Al Arabiya. Retrieved from: http://www.alarabiya.net/
save_pdf.php?cont_id=56346
[30] El-Khazen, J. (2009, 23 April). The noose is tightening. Al Hayat. Retrieved from: http://www.daralhayat.com/archivearticle/293640
[31] BBC Monitoring, (2001, 8 October). Regional media coverage in wake of attacks. BBC Monitoring Research.
[32] Alhomayed, T. (2005, 22 July). Muslims speak out! Asharq Alawsat, Retrieved from: http://www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?
section=2&id=921
[33] Al Faqi, M. (2004, 16 November). The United States and Islam. Al Hayat.
[34] Ramkumar, K. S., Haider, S., Ali Kahn, G., Ba-Isa, M. and Sharawi, M., (2001, 8 October). Let’s hope sanity will prevail. Arab News.
Retrieved from: http://archive.arabnews.com/?page=1&section=0&article=9669&d=8&m=10&y=2001
[35] Khouri. Intemperance keeps terrorism alive. Op. cit.
[36] Al Arabiya, (2005, 20 September). Lebanon’s Lahhud thankful over Al-Hariri probe in UN speech. Al Arabiya, via BBC Worldwide
Monitoring.
[37] Al Ziabi, J., (2004, 14 October). Partners in terrorism. Al Hayat.
[38] Badrakhan, A. (2002, 28 November). A losing bet. Al Hayat.
[39] Al Rimawi, M. (2003, 28 January). What comes after the war? Al Hayat.
[40] Said, E. W., (2003, 14 April). A stupid war. Al Hayat.
[41] Iskandar, A. (2006, 11 September). 9/11 and Iraq. Al Hayat. Retrieved from: http://www.daralhayat.com/archivearticle/242013
[42] Ramkumar et al. Let’s hope sanity will prevail. Op. cit.
[43] Bishara, M., (2009, 31 December). Neither wars nor drones. Al Jazeera. Retrieved from: http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/imperium/
2009/12/20091231125821208452.html
[44] Al Rashed, R. (2008, 30 October). Condoleeza: the Middle East is a better place? Asharq Alawsat, Retrieved from: http://www.asharq-
e.com/news.asp?section=2&id=14571
[45] El-Khazen, J., (2005, 28 November). America and the War on Terror. Al Hayat. Retrieved from: http://www.daralhayat.com/
archivearticle/240029
[46] Badrakhan, A. (2003, 12 September). Reproducing terrorism. Al Hayat. Retrieved from: http://www.daralhayat.com/archivearticle/
237811
[47] Badrakhan, A. (2004, 19 February). Reform and terrorism. Al Hayat.
[48] Seale, P. (2006, 4 August). Israel and the US are losing the three-front war. Al Hayat. Retrieved from: http://www.daralhayat.com/
archivearticle/123873
[49] Shobokshi, H. (2007, 26 March). Four years of stupidity. Asharq Alawsat, Retrieved from: http://www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?
section=2&id=8442
[50] Reese, S. D. (2006). The framing project: a bridging model for media research revisited. Journal of Communication, 57, 148-154.
[51] Hirsch. 9/11 and counting. Op. cit.
[52] Bergen, P. (2009, 8 January). Commentary: how Bush botched the war on terror. CNN. Retrieved from: http://edition.cnn.com/2009/
WORLD/meast/01/07/bergen.war.terror/index.html
[53] Reese, S. D. and Lewis, S. C. (2009). Framing the war on terror: the internalization of policy in the US press. Journalism, 10, (6), 777-797.
[54] Strömbäck, J. (2008). Four phases of mediatisation: an analysis of the mediatisation of politics. The International Journal of Press/Politics,
13, (3), 228-246.
25 December 2013
[55] Burke, J. (2011). The 9/11 wars. Allen Lane.

[56] Malvesti, M. (2001). Explaining the United States' Decision to Strike Back at Terrorists, Terrorism and Political Violence, 13, (2), 85-106.
[57] Ryan, M. (2004). Framing the war against terrorism: US newspaper editorials and military action in Afghanistan. Gazette: The
International Journal for Communication Studies, 66, (5), 363-382. It is worth noting that many of the measures identified in the Western press
are similar to US government metrics. Indeed, the argument that the Western media used its reach to make the case, in particular for the Iraq
war, has found support, see: Ryan, M. and Switzer, L. (2009). Propaganda and the subversion of objectivity: media coverage of the war on
terrorism in Iraq. Critical Studies on Terrorism, 2, (1), 45-64.
[58] Makram Obeid, M. (2003, 17 September). Two years after September 11: in what ways did the US change? Al Hayat. Retrieved from:
[59] Hardy, R. (2009, 10 September). Eight years since the ‘dark day.’ BBC. Retrieved from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/
8247156.stm
[60] Jackson, R. (2005). Writing the war on terrorism: language, politics and counter-terrorism. Chippenham: Manchester University Press.
[61] Fahmy, S. (2010). Contrasting visual frames of our times: a framing analysis of English- and Arabic-language press coverage of war on
terrorism. The International Communication Gazette, 72, (8), 695-717.
[62] Matthew, F. (2007, 8 November). Another case of double standards. Al Arabiya.
26 December 2013
Sri Lanka’s Post-Conflict Strategy: Restorative Justice for Rebels and

Rebuilding of Conflict-affected Communities
by Iromi Dharmawardhane
Abstract [1]
Following the Sri Lankan Government’s military defeat of the internationally proscribed terrorist
organisation, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in May 2009, Sri Lanka embarked on
an essential and long-term twofold post-conflict strategy: (i) rehabilitation and reintegration of
former LTTE combatants, and (ii) the rebuilding of the conflict-affected Tamil communities of the
Northern and Eastern Provinces. The rehabilitation program was by many counts a success, with
demonstrated cognitive transformation in attitudes and behaviour of most of the (formerly)
radicalised combatants. Reconciliation initiatives were implemented to fulfill the urgent social,
political, and economic needs of the conflict-affected communities of the North and East. These
reconciliation efforts continue to be implemented and comprise different measures taken in: (1)
resettlement and humanitarian assistance, (2) reconstruction of key transport, economic, health,
and social infrastructure for reintegration, (3) political engagement, and (4) various types of
peace-building work. Sri Lanka’s post-conflict strategy adopts a holistic approach, seeking the
contribution of the public sector, private sector, community organisations, international
organisations, NGOs, and private individuals from different segments of society in Sri Lanka.
However, despite the many effective state-led and other reconciliation efforts undertaken by Sri
Lanka, the author is able to present a number of recommendations to the government of Sri
Lanka to overcome shortcomings in the rehabilitation and reconciliation programs adopted, as
well as other challenges faced by Sri Lanka, such as the relentless disinformation campaign
against the Sri Lankan state pursued by the remnant LTTE cells surviving internationally. To
understand the complex nature of the Sri Lankan conflict and the skillful disinformation
campaign pursued against the Sri Lankan state by the LTTE’s transnational network, a
comprehensive introduction is provided as a part of this article.
Introduction to the Post-Conflict Circumstances and History of the Sri Lankan Conflict
The three decades long “Sri Lankan conflict” came to a conclusive end in May 2009, following
the military defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), also known as the Tamil
Tigers, an internationally proscribed terrorist organisation. The LTTE was notorious for its
vile terror tactics such as the use of suicide bombers in carrying out attacks on civilians and
the country’s leadership[2], the abducting of children for recruitment as child soldiers[3],
forced money collection from Tamils with threats to life in case of non-compliance[4], attacks
on the country’s economic infrastructure such as the Central Bank of Sri Lanka and the only
international airport, “ethnic cleansing” of Sinhalese and Muslims from the North and East of
Sri Lanka[5],the assassination of Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, the assassination of Sri
Lankan President Ranasinghe Premadasa, the systematic assassination of more than 40
27 December 2013
prominent mainstream Tamil political leaders, including

the Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Lakshman
Kadirgamar[6], and deliberately inflicting casualties by
holding civilians as human shields during the final phase
of the war and shooting at those who attempted to flee
[7].
However, some news reports that have appeared

internationally in the post-conflict years, have attempted
to undermine the moral legitimacy of the present Sri
Lankan government, by charging war crimes due to
alleged high numbers of Tamil civilian casualties and
cases of torture. They do not attribute names to their
sources[8], and choose not to call for the prosecution of
the LTTE cells and front organisations which continue to operate outside of Sri Lanka [9].
These statements have not only dampened Sri Lanka’s hard-won victory over one of the
world’s most lethal terrorist groups[10], it has brought suspicion over some remarkable and
globally unprecedented post-conflict reconciliation efforts undertaken by the Sri Lankan
government.
It is instructive to explore these grave allegations briefly, so that some very effective
reconciliation measures adopted by the Sri Lankan state can be appreciated fully. The number
of civilian causalities in the last phase of the war presented by different sources varies greatly.
Fundamentally, the civilian casualty figure of the Sri Lankan war remains unknown.[11]
Gordon Weiss, a former United Nations official in Sri Lanka, estimated 7,000 civilian deaths in
2009, but this figure was not accepted by Sir John Holmes, the then UN Under-Secretary
General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, who said this figure was
“unverified and unreliable”.[12] The United States government had received information from
an unnamed organisation that 6,710 people - civilians and LTTE combatants - had died from
January 20 to April 20, 2009.[13] Sri Lanka’s Defence Seminar 2013 revealed that the civilian
death toll is likely to have been between 2,000 and 3,000 in the final phase of the war in May
2009.[14]
The two “leaked” United Nations internal reports, the Darusman Report in March 2011 and
the Petrie Report in November 2012, claimed 40,000 civilian casualties and 70,000 individuals
“unaccounted for”. Both gained much media attention. No sources were named in these
reports to substantiate this very high number of civilian casualties.[15] Sri Lanka views these
two documents as unjust in their treatment of the Sri Lankan conflict and unsubstantiated in
their content.[16] An article of the British newspaper The Guardian noted that, “….privately,
UN staff admitted they were puzzled by the methodology used to achieve the new death toll”,
and that one official stated that “Someone has made an imaginative leap and that is at odds
with what we have been saying before…It is a very dangerous thing to do to start making
extrapolations.”[17] Sri Lanka is also plagued by the call by the United Nations Human Rights
28 December 2013
Commissioner for an international inquiry, “in the absence of meaningful progress on

accountability” with regard to civilian deaths during the last phase of the war.[18]
Given the fact that the LTTE was a despotically run militant organisation[19] that directly
threatened the sovereignty of Sri Lanka and the security of its people, the Sri Lankan
government asserts that these views do not take into account the “principles of self-defence or
reasonableness of retaliation, proportionality, or a technical analysis of the trajectories of the
shells allegedly fired, to determine their source.”[20] It also has to be kept in mind that the
LTTE was the only guerrilla-cum-terrorist group in the world which had an infantry
(“Military”, which included an elite fighting wing and the “Black Tigers” suicide commando
unit), a maritime wing with a shipping fleet (“Sea Tigers”), an air wing (“Air Tigers”), a highly
secretive intelligence group (“Snow Tigers”[21]), as well as international political and
procurement offices.[22]
The British television station “Channel 4” produced three documentaries in 2011, 2012, and
2013[23] which include video footage of the victims of the Sri Lankan war, among them
children and patients in hospitals, from the final phase of the war. It is conspicuous that these
reports do not explain that the LTTE deliberately used civilian posts such as hospitals and
schools to operate heavy weaponry during the final phases of the war.[24] These videos
contain evidence of manipulation such as upside-down editing, sequences being reversed, and
individuals likely to be LTTE combatants being depicted as members of the Sri Lankan Army.
[25] These Channel 4 productions have also been accused of “mix[ing] footage with comment
from unnamed sources with distorted voices and shadowed faces” and that the commentaries
were “intemperate and partisan, and it was all held together by assumptions.”[26] Jacques de
Maio, Head of Operations for South Asia for the International Committee of the Red Cross
(ICRC), stated that, “the LTTE had tried to keep civilians in the middle of a permanent state of
violence. It saw the civilian population as a ‘protective asset’ and kept its fighters embedded
amongst them.”[27] In 2011, the Sri Lankan government stated that, “it was impossible in a
battle of this magnitude, against a ruthless opponent actively endangering civilians, for civilian
casualties to be avoided.”[28]
News reports of alleged torture, such as the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC)’s “Tamils
still being raped and tortured in Sri Lanka” by Frances Harrison (November 9, 2013)[29], have
also been produced and circulated internationally. In the Frances Harrison video report,
twelve people, including former LTTE combatants, are identified as victims of torture and
rape. Their faces are shown, but names are withheld. The Sri Lankan High Commission in the
United Kingdom has made a statement in response, saying that: “...It is not fair to ask for a
response on claims based on anonymous testimony,” the individuals who claimed to be
victims were likely “paid to discredit Sri Lanka” and are likely to have been tortured by the
LTTE in the past. The Sri Lankan government has firmly refuted that it has engaged in
systematic torture and rape or deliberate targeting of civilians during or after conflict, and
asserts instead that members of the LTTE have fabricated testimonies to seek asylum in
Western countries[30].[31].
29 December 2013
It seems that the Sri Lankan government may be battling a propaganda war conceptualised by
LTTE elements surviving abroad. It has been assessed that “the LTTE international
propaganda war is conducted at an extremely sophisticated level.”[32] In order to counter the
LTTE’s “propaganda war effort”[33], diplomats and politicians of the Sri Lankan state have
only relatively recently begun to appeal to foreign governments and expatriate Sri Lankans,
including politically mainstream Tamils, in an effort to project ground realities in Sri Lanka
and expose the systematically propagated disinformation campaign of the LTTE. Presently, the
LTTE primarily exists overseas in the form of the Nediyavan faction (“Oslo group”)[34], Joe
Emmanuel faction (“London group”: Global Tamil Forum and British Tamils Forum)[35],
Rudrakumaran faction/ Transnational Government of Tamil Eelam (“New York group”) [36],
and Vinyagam faction (“Brussels group”)[37].[38] The LTTE has a presence in 44 countries
outside Sri Lanka, with established structures in twelve of them.[39] Some of the most active
pro-LTTE lobby groups are located in Canada, the United Kingdom, Norway, United States,
Switzerland, and France.[40] Pro-LTTE front organisations exist also in India, Germany, and
Australia, corresponding to the large number of diaspora Tamils that have settled in the
respective countries.[41] The Tamil diaspora provided the LTTE with approximately US $300
million a year[42]; 90-95% of the LTTE’s funds in Sri Lanka came from overseas.[43]
However, despite the LTTE’s powerful disinformation campaign, issues of civilian casualties
and incidents of torture are grave allegations that call for an immediate response by the Sri
Lankan authorities. Although Sri Lanka’s government is indignant about unscrupulous
reporting, to dismantle false narratives and work towards a sustainable peace for Sri Lanka, it
must strive to adopt a strategic public relations campaign to portray an accurate depiction of
the end phase of the conflict to international audiences. Investigation into allegations is
paramount also so that perpetrators of violence, such as rape and torture, can be prosecuted.
Like in Pakistan, Kashmir, Afghanistan, and Iraq, isolated cases of atrocities by government
forces are likely to have occurred in Sri Lanka as well.
The many facets of the Sri Lankan conflict make its contextualisation complex.[44] This is due
to the protracted nature of the LTTE terrorist insurgency, the LTTE’s international network,
the ancient, pre-colonial, and colonial history of Sri Lanka, domestic political and social
developments in the past 40 years, and the nature of international politics.
The post-colonial grievances of the Sinhalese preceded those of the Tamils. The British pre-
independence support of Christianity and the English language[45] had led to the powerful
state sector being dominated by the urban class of English-educated Christian Tamils and
Burghers[46], as well as Christian Sinhalese in Colombo during colonial rule.[47] Under
British colonial rule, English-language medium level schools were also established in
Jaffna[48] by the British administration and were thus attended by the Tamils in Jaffna.[49]
However, 95% of the then 6.6 million Sinhalese population lived away from Colombo and
were educated in Sinhalese.[50] Most of the Sinhalese were thus prevented from obtaining
white-collar jobs in the state sector, for example, civil service entrance examinations were
conducted only in English. As a consequence of the British colonial administration’s “divide
30 December 2013
and rule” tactic, the Sri Lankan Tamils were also treated as a “majority community” and given
equal (not proportionate) political representation to the Sinhalese during British colonial
times[51] – despite the fact that they accounted for only 12% of the country’s population while
the Sinhalese accounted for 70% of the population.[52] Being the majority and having
functioned in a Sinhala-Buddhist social context for millennia, the Sinhalese were less inclined
to adopt English as their first language or Christianity as their religion.
Prime Minister S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike’s post-Independence government sought to change

opportunity structures and include the marginalised Sinhalese into the economy and
administration of the country through the Sinhala-Only language policy,[53] it was not fair to
the Tamils and other minority communities. Sirimavo Bandaranaike, who succeeded her
husband as Prime Minister and leader of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) in 1960[54],
followed the Sinhala-Only language policy aggressively. She removed Article 29 of the 1948
Constitution, which contained special provisions for minorities. In 1972, the constitution was
changed, making Sri Lanka a republic, with no elements of federalism. The Sirimavo
Bandaranaike government introduced the Standardisation Policy which made university
admission criteria lower for Sinhalese than for Tamils (the score was “standardised” relative to
members of other ethnic groups)[55], as there was an overrepresentation of Tamil students in
higher education institutions at this time (e.g. in the Engineering and Science fields, the
percentages of Tamil students were 48% and 49% respectively)[56].
The Sinhala-Only state policies triggered a wave of Tamil aspirations for a separate state. There
grew a Tamil militant underground movement supported by Tamil youth, collectively known
as the Tamil Tigers.[57] The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)[58] led by Velupillai
Prabhakaran was founded in 1972, and was the most dominant among the several separatist,
mostly militant, groups that existed at the time.[59] The LTTE was responsible for the killing
of the (Tamil) Mayor of Jaffna in 1975, a supporter of the SLFP mainstream political party.[60]
The 1977 elections made J. R. Jayawardene of the United National Party (UNP) the head of
government. The Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF) was the largest oppositional party in
parliament at the time. Jayawardene changed the constitution in 1978, replacing the
parliamentary government with a presidential system.[61] The 1978 Constitution included
substantial provisions for Tamils in an effort to secure peace, by giving Tamil the status of a
national language and allowing Tamil to be used in administration and education at several
levels, abrogating the Standardisation Policy which had made it more difficult for Tamil
students to enter university, offering top positions in government to Tamils including Minister
of Justice, and calling for an All-Party Conference to resolve the country’s ethnic tensions.[62]
However, the Tamil Tigers increased their terrorist attacks on the Sinhalese civilian population
in their call for a separate state, which led to Sinhalese counterattacks against Tamils, and
served to put a halt to any negotiations through an All-Party Conference.[63]
In 1983, the most gruesome ethnic riots erupted leading to the deaths of hundreds if not
thousands of Tamils in Colombo by the hands of organised Sinhalese extremist gangs.[64] The
31 December 2013
Sinhalese mob violence began as a reaction to the ambush of a Sri Lankan Army patrol in
Jaffna by the LTTE, which killed thirteen Sinhalese soldiers.[65] The nature of the atrocities
was extremely savage.[66] Similar atrocities were inflicted on the Sinhalese who lived in Tamil
areas.[67] Approximately 150,000 Tamils fled Sri Lanka after the (Black) July 1983 ethnic riots,
[68] forming the Tamil diaspora (presently numbering approximately 800,000 people[69]).
Meanwhile, between 1977 and 1987, the LTTE took control over the Northern areas by
fighting the Sri Lankan Army and murdering any Tamils who opposed them – killing many
more Tamils in this process than the (predominately Sinhalese) Sri Lankan Army.[70] The
LTTE’s first terrorist attack was carried out in 1987 with a suicide bombing at a Sri Lankan
Army camp in Jaffna, which killed 40 members of the Sri Lankan security forces.[71] The
LTTE’s first terrorist attack against civilians occurred in 1984, targeting civilian settlements at
Dollar Farm and Kent Farm in Jaffna, killing 62 civilians, including women and children.[72]
The LTTE has carried out about 400 suicide attacks between 1987 and 2009, killing hundreds
of civilians and injuring many more.[73] Between February 2002 to April 2007, the LTTE
violated ceasefire agreements 3,830 times, while the Sri Lankan government (in turn) violated
ceasefire agreements 351 times.[74]
The LTTE simultaneously followed an aggressive disinformation campaign overseas to raise

funds for its operations in Sri Lanka, accusing the Sri Lankan government of discrimination
and ethnic genocide.[75] The LTTE’s disinformation campaign included the map of an
invented “Tamil Eelam” territory inside of Sri Lanka, as the Tamil homeland in the North and
East of the island (covering more than one-third of Sri Lanka’s land mass and two-thirds of its
coastline).[76] However, historically all parts of the island were known to have been
multiethnic in composition from earliest recorded history.[77] The Eastern Province was 58%
Sinhalese and Muslim in ethnic composition in 1985, prior to the “ethnic cleansing” of
Sinhalese and Muslims from the North and East by the LTTE.[78] At present, the population
of the commercial capital of Colombo is approximately evenly divided between the Sinhalese,
Tamils, and Muslims. Although two-thirds of the Tamil population of Sri Lanka lived in the
South and other parts of Sri Lanka throughout the years of conflict[79], from its inception
until its last days in May 2009, the LTTE did not propose anything other than the demand for
a separate state for Tamils.[80]
Although there was a consensus among Sri Lankan Tamils in the 1970s and 1980s regarding
the creation of a separate state for Tamils, the majority of the Tamils living in Sri Lanka have
relinquished the separatist agenda, as state policies have changed significantly during the past
40 years, with no overtly ethnically discriminatory state policies currently in place. Most
Tamils in Sri Lanka also renounced their support for the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam
(LTTE) insurgency due to the increased use of terror tactics.[81] Supporters of the LTTE live
mainly outside of Sri Lanka, as described above. These include Tamils that left Sri Lanka
during the past 50 years due to the change in the language policy, ethnic riots during the 1950s
and the early 1980s, as well as for economic reasons. One common factor that binds these
individuals is that they harbour painful memories of Sri Lanka, which has grown into a hatred
32 December 2013
for the government, irrespective of constructive domestic political and social progress. LTTE
cells overseas and supportive diaspora groups continue to call for a separate state within the
island’s land mass. However, there is a second, smaller group of Tamils living outside of Sri
Lanka, who politically oppose the LTTE. This group is most prominent in London (which
includes the Expatriate Tamil Association); it holds regular demonstrations against the LTTE
there.[82]
It is also crucial to understand the historical and cultural realities of Sri Lanka.[83] Due to its
history as a trading centre since ancient times, Sri Lanka’s culture has been described as having
a “strong cosmopolitan flavour” and “multicultural ethos”[84].[85] To illustrate, two of the
major religious sites of Sri Lanka, Sri Padha/ Adam’s Peak[86] and the Katharagama temple,
are sacred to followers of several faiths at once; the former for the Buddhists (who are
Sinhalese), the Hindus (who are Tamil), and the Muslims (who are ethnic Moors and others),
and the latter for the Buddhists and the Hindus.[87] Pilgrims of the different religions/
ethnicities have always visited these sites side by side in mutual respect. Further, the Sinhalese
and Tamils (and other ethnic groups) lived peacefully in the country throughout the years of
conflict (except for some border Sinhalese villages which the LTTE regularly attacked and
raided, killing and torturing the villagers in the process[88]). It is notable that there were no
incidents of communal violence against Tamils by the Sinhalese, despite the LTTE’s regular
terrorist attacks targeting the Sinhalese civilian population since 1984.[89] Hence, the post-
colonial ethnic riots of the 1950s and 1980s seem a stark aberration to the traditionally
harmonious ethnic relations between the majority of Sri Lankans.
Sri Lanka has suffered tremendously between 1983 and 2009, and pronouncedly so due to
systematic terrorist attacks targeting civilians and, during the final phase of the war, when
many civilians were trapped in gunfire. Altogether, more than 70,000 lives were lost over the
three decades of conflict[90] - a figure that is not disputed. The Sri Lankan government must
make every effort to heal these wounds, especially of those who suffered the most as a
community, the conflict-affected, predominately Tamil population in the north. While much
remains to be done, it is also apparent that the Sri Lankan government is making strides in its
efforts to rebuild the war-torn country.
This article seeks to describe some of the bold and hopefully enduring steps taken by the Sri
Lankan government through a twofold post-conflict strategy: (I) restorative justice for former
LTTE combatants, and (II) rebuilding of the conflict-affected, predominantly Tamil
communities living in the Northern and Eastern Provinces. Sri Lanka’s post-conflict strategy
has also embraced a holistic approach to national reconciliation by seeking the contribution of
the private sector, community organisations, international organisations, NGOs, as well as
private individuals from different segments of society in Sri Lanka. In September 2013, during
the 24th Session of the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC), many UNHRC member
states[91] commended the significant progress made by the Sri Lankan government in the
areas of rehabilitation, resettlement, resolution of land issues, demining, livelihood
development, and issues of accountability.[92]
33 December 2013
Sri Lanka’s Innovative Rehabilitation Program for Former LTTE Combatants

Restorative justice for former LTTE combatants involved the rehabilitation, reinsertion, and
reintegration of 11,481 former LTTE combatants, including 594 child soldiers (as of January
2013).[93] This figure includes 10,329 of the approximately 12,000 LTTE members who
surrendered or were detained at the end of the conflict, and were rehabilitated and
reintegrated into society by October 2011.[94] These rehabilitees were reintegrated into the
community within the two-year stipulated period, while child beneficiaries completed their
rehabilitation and reintegration within one year.[95] The Presidential Amnesty issued in
support of restorative justice for LTTE members at the end of the conflict, an act which
directly promotes reconciliation, stands in opposition to retributive justice which seeks to
punish individuals for their wrongdoings through the judicial and prison systems. Despite Sri
Lanka being a nation which suffered severe damage to its social, political, and economic
development[96] due to the LTTE’s decades-long insurgency, Sri Lankans were able to identify
many members of the LTTE as victims of radicalisation. Sri Lankan society has always known
about the LTTE leadership’s long-established and calculated strategy of indoctrinating a
violent separatist ideology into Tamil people[97]. It was also well-known that the LTTE
propagated what many considered disinformation among the Tamil community in the North
and East of Sri Lanka and the Tamil diaspora living abroad[98]. Sri Lankans were also familiar
with the LTTE’s ruthless tactic of abducting school children for recruitment as child soldiers.
[99] Restorative justice is not new to the country; it is very much a part of the Sri Lankan
spiritual heritage of forgiveness, which understands that social development involves the
transformation of individuals, not their prolonged imprisonment or death. It should be noted
that, unlike in Sri Lanka, in some countries, such as Jordan and Yemen, the lack of sustained
political will and popular support undermined the sustainability of similar rehabilitation
(deradicalisation) programs.[100]
The program “Way-Forward on Rehabilitation, Reinsertion, and Reintegration” (W-RRR) of

Sri Lanka’s Bureau of the Commissioner General of Rehabilitation (BCGR) was designed in
compliance with international principles, guidelines, and best practices, as well as with due
consideration to the unique requirements emerging from the context of the Sri Lankan
conflict. In one of the world’s most developed rehabilitation programs for radicalised
combatants, each beneficiary (i.e. former combatant) was first subjected to psycho-social and
socio-economic profiling and categorised as belonging to a “low”, “medium”, or “high” risk
groups, according to the depth, period, and activities of her/his involvement within the LTTE
organisation.[101] The 24 Protective Accommodation and Rehabilitation Centres (PARCs) in
different parts of Sri Lanka were managed by Sri Lankan Army personnel, while the
approximately 254 staff who directly interacted with the rehabilitees were primarily
professional educators or school teachers from the Army Cadet Corps who were trained in
psychological counseling.[102] Approximately USD 9,136,370 was spent by the Sri Lankan
government for the rehabilitation of former LTTE combatants between January 2009 and
September 2012.[103] This sum does not include the (initial) smaller contributions in funds
34 December 2013
and other resources made by the United Nations International Organisation for Migration
(IOM), UNICEF, international NGOs, several Western and other governments, local NGOs,
and Sri Lankan private sector organisations.
Several United Nations and humanitarian agencies, notably the IOM and HALO Trust,
assisted the Sri Lankan government in the rehabilitation of former combatants through a
Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration program (DDG) in 2009, as well as in the
resettlement of internally displaced persons (IDPs). The IOM, trusted by the Sri Lankan
government, had access to IDP welfare and rehabilitation centres throughout the combatant
rehabilitation process.[104]
The components of the Sri Lankan “6+1 Model” rehabilitation program included: (1)
Educational Rehabilitation, (2) Vocational Rehabilitation, (3) Psychosocial and Creative
Therapies for Rehabilitation, (4) Social, Cultural, and Family Rehabilitation, (5) Spiritual and
Religious Rehabilitation, (6) Recreational Rehabilitation, and (+) Community Engagement.
An aftercare system was also put in place for the rehabilitees who required livelihood support
once the rehabilitation program was completed. This was in the form of guaranteed wage
employment in the newly established Civil Defence Force and Navy Coastguard in the
government sector, or support for self-employment through micro-finance facilities and
business support services.
The rehabilitation program in Sri Lanka was led by two internationally experienced Sri
Lankan psychologists, Malkanthi Hettiarachchi and Peshali Fernando[105]. It was designed
according to the rehabilitation model developed by Singapore’s International Centre for
Political Violence and Terrorism Research(ICPVTR).[106] The research staff from ICPVTR
which included experts in rehabilitation from the Religious Rehabilitation Group (RRG) of
Singapore, assisted the Sri Lankan government in designing and implementing its
rehabilitation program from October 2009 onwards.[107] However, the rehabilitation
program was “indigenised” to suit the Sri Lankan culture.[108] The IOM provided crucial
technical assistance for the vocational rehabilitation and reintegration programs. It also
facilitated study tours for relevant Sri Lankan government officials to study the rehabilitation
programs in Colombia.[109]
The components of the Sri Lankan “6+1 Model” rehabilitation program are described in detail
in an article entitled “Sri Lanka’s Rehabilitation Program: A New Frontier in Counter-
terrorism and Counter-insurgency”, recently published in PRISM: Journal of the Centre for
Complex Operations by Malkanthi Hettiarachchi[110], lead psychologist of Sri Lanka’s
rehabilitation program. Some details relating to the components of the rehabilitation program
provided in the following paragraphs are based on the PRISM article.
The Educational Rehabilitation included providing formal education to beneficiaries under 18

years of age within a residential school environment for the General Certificate of Education
(G.C.E.) Ordinary and Advanced Level Examinations, as only 60% of the beneficiaries under
18 had studied up to the national standard of Ordinary Level (Grade 10). Adult supplementary
35 December 2013
education was also provided, as 10 - 25% of adult beneficiaries could not read and write in the
Tamil language, and the majority did not understand Sinhala or English.
Vocational Rehabilitation included skills development for Agriculture, Carpentry, Masonry,

Motor Mechanics, Beauty Culture, Garment and Textiles, Information Technology, and other
industries for which there is a (labour) market demand. The forty-two vocational training
programs conducted were also based on the beneficiaries’ interests, their families’ traditional
vocations and businesses, and regional vocational opportunities. The vocational programs
were partly held within the rehabilitation centres, and partly externally run by local and
foreign NGOs, private businesses, state ministries, and volunteer organisations. Several Sri
Lankan blue chip companies supported the vocational training programs by building the
vocational skills of former combatants, and by providing them with employment in the
companies upon completion of the rehabilitation program. The beneficiaries’ desire for
vocational training and employment was seen to gradually increase as their period in
rehabilitation progressed.
A major component of the Psycho-social and Creative Rehabilitation program was the in-
house counseling provided to beneficiaries. The Centre staff was trained in psychological
counseling and advanced psycho-social skills by a clinical psychologist, a counseling
psychologist, counselors, therapists, and other professionals in psychology. The Mentorship
Program was a part of the Psycho-social Rehabilitation program, in which well-respected
persons of the Sri Lankan Tamil community acted as mentors for the beneficiaries. Creative
therapies, known to have a healing effect on many, helped many beneficiaries to express their
inner thoughts and feelings through artistic means.
Social, Cultural, and Family Rehabilitation included social and educational tours to different
parts of Sri Lanka to gain an understanding of the diversity within the island. These included
visits to universities, schools, and other developments in Colombo, the ethnically diverse
commercial capital of Sri Lanka.[111] Family Rehabilitation consisted of visits by family or
next of kin in a friendly atmosphere conducive to rehabilitation, writing and receiving of
letters, and visits to home villages in the event of a celebration, illness, or a death in the family.
The Spiritual and Religious Rehabilitation was seen to have a strong impact in helping
beneficiaries to emotionally and morally reconcile with their past and develop a state of inner
peace, so that they are psychologically in a position to look to the future. The spiritual
programs that were conducted included yoga and meditation sessions, also encompassing
mindfulness (vipassana) training. Group religious ceremonies with rites and rituals were
conducted, based on a beneficiary’s faith. These ceremonies were led by religious leaders of the
respective Hindu, Christian, and Satya Sai faiths.
Recreational Rehabilitation included beneficiary participation in team sports such as cricket,

volleyball, and traditional team sports. Recreational Rehabilitation also included engaging in
other forms of physical exercise for an allocated period of time each day.
36 December 2013
The rehabilitated former LTTE combatants were “reinserted” (resettled) in their original
homes with a three-month reinsertion assistance package that was meant to meet their
preliminary basic needs in terms of shelter, food, clothing, and healthcare. This process sought
to rely on community-based support structures. The final phase of the W-RRR program, the
reintegration of former combatants into their home communities, constituted the two aspects
of social integration and economic integration. The (+1) Community Engagement component
of the rehabilitation program helped to work towards social integration. Community
engagement was vital to overcome the anger and resentment held by some members of the
Tamil community living in villages in the North and East, who were persecuted by the LTTE
or had been held hostage by the LTTE during the final stages of the war.[112] Some of the
efforts included establishing community-based support networks and public reintegration
ceremonies.[113] In this way, the mentoring and further mainstreaming of former LTTE
combatants was meant to constitute a natural and gradual transfer to their respective local
communities. The initial contact between a beneficiary and her/his home community was
established in degrees, beginning with a series of visitations, letters, and phone conversations
as part of the Community Engagement program.[114]
Economic reintegration was to be achieved by providing employment or support for self-

employment through the aftercare system, and by ensuring employability of rehabilitees
through catch-up programs in education and vocational training as described above. However,
effective reintegration, especially economic reintegration, could not be achieved for all
rehabilitated former combatants.[115] Thus, the need for the establishment of a continued
monitoring and mentoring system of rehabilitated combatants exists, in order to evaluate the
progress of, and support for, the reintegration component of Sri Lanka’s W-RRR program (this
topic is discussed in greater detail below under “The Continued Challenge of Economic
Reintegration” heading).[116]
Rehabilitation Programs for Child Combatants

The rehabilitation programs for child beneficiaries involved additional facets such as an
emphasis on further education and the inclusion of Boy Scouts and Girl Guides programs.
Approximately 40% of child beneficiaries had not studied up to the national standard of the
Ordinary Level Examination (Grade 10); many were in fact illiterate. All child beneficiaries
were admitted into a prominent school near Colombo (Ratmalana Hindu College), with the
exception of those who preferred to undertake vocational training.[117]
Some beneficiaries were able to enroll in university education, and several also entered the
very competitive medical schools in national universities.[118] The rehabilitation program
conducted for 273 former LTTE child combatants at the premises of the Ratmalana Hindu
College, in partnership with community organisations and private individuals, was found to
be particularly effective due to its special English Language program and Girl Guides and Boy
Scouts programs.[119] English was taught using the comprehensive Montessori Method which
37 December 2013
embraces different learning styles and student-centred learning through non-traditional, non-
competitive, and collaborative teaching methods.[120]
Seventy-eight boys and girls completed the Boy Scouts and Girl Guides programs, which were
adapted to meet the requirements of the rehabilitation program.[121] These programs helped
former child combatants to overcome trauma and past negative experiences through a system
of holistic education. The programs promoted social responsibility and integration, team
spirit, and ethnic and religious harmony through the values they promoted, activity-based
learning, rewards for good behaviour, and practical training useful for resettlement into
society, such as knots training, carpentry, electronics, and first aid training.[122] The
rehabilitation program for child beneficiaries at the Ratmalana school also included
opportunities to visit Colombo for water therapy and other activities.[123]
Demonstrating Effectiveness of Cognitive Transformation

The effectiveness of the deradicalisation of the Sri Lankan rehabilitation program was assessed
using: (1) interviews with beneficiaries, (2) review of past records, (3) observations noted by
staff, and (4) formal assessment in the form of psychometric testing.[124] Assessment Battery
psychometrics were used, based on a radicalisation index and several psychological and social
psychology scales.[125] Observed cognitive transformation is attributed both to the core
components of the rehabilitation program as well as to the strong informal interpersonal
relationships built between beneficiaries and centre staff.[126] When trying to assess the
effectiveness of the rehabilitation program, it became evident that the radicalisation levels of
members of a control group not exposed to the rehabilitation program shifted only minimally.
This led to the conclusion that time alone was not sufficient for their deradicalisation.[127]
Two components that were observed to be most effective were psychological counseling and
mindfulness training, although the effectiveness of one component cannot be assessed in
isolation as all beneficiaries underwent all six components of the rehabilitation program.[128]
An independent assessment of the effectiveness of the rehabilitation program was conducted

by leading psychologists in the field, Arie W. Kruglanski and Michele J. Gelfand of the
University of Maryland (USA), which included a baseline survey to assess the changing
attitudes and opinions of the beneficiaries.[129] Kruglanski and Gelfand used several attitude
questionnaires and personality measures to survey the beneficiaries’ support for armed
fighting against the state, their “embeddedness” to the LTTE terrorist organisation, their
attitudes toward the Centre’s staff members, and their attitudes toward the rehabilitation
program, among other psychological variables.[130] Responses of over 9,000 rehabilitees were
obtained.[131]
Many beneficiaries of the rehabilitation program were observed to have undergone a

significant transformation in their attitudes and behaviour towards other ethnic groups as well
as the mainly Sinhalese security forces personnel over the course of the first seven months of
rehabilitation.[132] The assessment made by Kruglanski and Gelfand demonstrated three
38 December 2013
main findings[133]: (1) “Significant decline in the detainees’ support for violence toward the
Sinhalese from the moment they joined the deradicalisation program at Time 1 to seven
months later toward the end of the program at Time 2”; (2) “Evidence that this generalised
decline in support for violence and armed struggle is even more pronounced for the most
extreme terrorist members of the organisation;” and (3) that two key ingredients which made
the Sri Lankan rehabilitation successful were: “dignity and adequacy”.[134] Kruglanski and
Gelfand believe that “dignity” was a significant aspect of the rehabilitation program where the
beneficiaries developed genuine friendships with centre staff and guards, and the feeling of
being respected led to deradicalisation.[135] Kruglanski and Gelfand believe that the
perception of “adequacy” of the rehabilitation by the beneficiaries was also significant, i.e. the
adequacy of the attributes of the rehabilitation programs such as the vocational training
component which would help them reintegrate into society.[136] While long-term
effectiveness can only be assessed in later years, the study by Kruglanski and Gelfand is very
significant, especially as scientific research into the effectiveness of rehabilitation programs for
violent extremists has thus far been cited as a shortcoming of rehabilitation programs adopted
previously by several other countries, including the expansive rehabilitation program in Saudi
Arabia.[137]
Thus, the Sri Lankan rehabilitation program can be assessed to have been successful in
countering the LTTE’s violent, ethno-nationalist ideology which demonised the Sinhalese and
Muslim communities of Sri Lanka. Therefore, not only was the Sri Lankan rehabilitation
program able to “disengage” the former combatants, apparent through the zero rate of
recidivism, they were “deradicalised” owing to their cognitive transformation. In this the Sri
Lankan rehabilitation meets the “Key Components of Successful Deradicalisation Programs”
in the article entitled “Deradicalising Islamist Extremists” by Angel Rabasa, Stacie L.
Pettyjohn, Jeremy J. Ghez, Christopher Boucek, published by the RAND Corporation.[138] Sri
Lanka’s rehabilitation program can potentially serve as an effective and low-cost solution for
deradicalising members of a terrorist organisation for other countries emerging from similar
conflicts. Sri Lanka’s rehabilitation program which has cost less than USD 20 million[139],
stands in contrast with others such as in Afghanistan with a budget of over USD 220 million,
[140] with a much less effective outcome (although the nature of Afghanistan’s on-going
conflict presents much greater challenges to reintegration). It also shows that a program
supported by vast funds such as in Saudi Arabia[141] may not be required for the cognitive
transformation of beneficiaries. In undertaking a relatively effective rehabilitation program for
former LTTE combatants, Sri Lanka has fulfilled a recommendation made in the country’s
Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation Commission (LLRC) report produced in November 2011.
However, it can be noted that although there have been no incidents of recidivism or terrorism
related crime since the reintegration of rehabilitated combatants,[142] Sri Lanka’s robust
security platform which continued post-conflict is likely also to be a strong factor for this
post-conflict stability.
39 December 2013
The Continued Challenge of Economic Reintegration

Economic reintegration of rehabilitated combatants continues to be a challenge due to the lack
of satisfactory employment opportunities in conflict-affected areas or insufficient livelihood
support through the aftercare program.[143] The three-month reinsertion package was not
offering sufficient financial and material assistance for those rehabilitated former combatants
who did not opt to be employed in the Civil Defence Force or Navy Coastguard. Those
employed in the Civil Defence Force and Navy Coastguard receive a monthly salary of Rs.
19,500[144] (approximately USD 148.68), which is higher than the minimum wage of Rs.
13,000 (approximately USD 99.12) in the public sector[145]. However, this amount is still
considered to be low with the high cost of living in conflict-affected areas,[146] and in Sri
Lanka in general. Employment and self-employment prospects are low due to the limited
qualifications and skills of former combatants, as well as the few job opportunities in the
formal sector of local economies in the underdeveloped conflict-affected areas.
Thus, the economic reintegration component of Sri Lanka’s W-RRR program was not
successful for many rehabilitated combatants, although 100% success in economic
reintegration may be deemed beyond the scope of a developing country such as Sri Lanka. In
August 2013, the Sri Lankan government allocated a further Rs. 525 million (approximately
USD 4.01 million) for loans for assistance in livelihood projects for rehabilitated former
combatants, with a maximum loan of Rs. 250,000 (approximately USD 1,911); authorities have
already received 4,700 loan applications from rehabilitated combatants.[147]
Economic reintegration may have been better achieved if private sector organisations were
formally a part of the aftercare system of the rehabilitation program, in which rehabilitated
combatants would also have guaranteed employment in the private sector of Sri Lanka. The
variety in employment opportunities would have also led to greater job satisfaction among the
newly employed beneficiaries. The lack of jobs or livelihood opportunities post-rehabilitation
has been cited as a major vulnerability of the rehabilitation programs undertaken by several
countries such as Afghanistan (Afghan Peace and Reintegration Program)[148], Algeria[149],
and Pakistan[150]. While the social reintegration of former combatants overtly seems to be
less of a challenge, more research should be undertaken through a monitoring and mentoring
system to gauge its effectiveness through the W-RRR program, especially in light of some
members of the beneficiaries’ home villages initially being opposed to the return of former
LTTE combatants back to their villages.
Rebuilding the Conflict-affected Communities in the North and East

Reconciliation initiatives to relieve the conflict-affected, predominately Tamil communities of
the North and East have been implemented to fulfill their urgent social, political, and
economic needs. These reconciliation initiatives continue to be implemented and comprise
measures taken in: (1) resettlement and humanitarian assistance, (2) reconstruction of key
transport, economic, health, and social infrastructure for reintegration, (3) political
40 December 2013
engagement, and (4) other reconciliation initiatives relating to the emotional, social, and
economic aspects of reconciliation.
Humanitarian assistance was provided to more than 300,000 displaced persons by the
Ministry of Resettlement of Sri Lanka, assisted by international organisations, NGOs, and
private individuals. This ministry has resettled approximately 280,000 internally displaced
individuals within 2.5 years, while 6,031 persons remain in resettlement camps (as at May
2012).[151] Grants, cooked meals, and dry rations were provided for six months or more after
resettlement. The Sri Lankan Army has contributed to the resettlement effort by building
1,766 houses, and in undertaking the essential, painstaking, and dangerous task of demining
conflict-affected regions.[152] Demining has been completed entirely in the Jaffna Peninsula,
while demining activities continue in some areas of the Northern and Eastern Provinces.[153]
Public services such as water, sanitation, electricity, education, and health facilities were
restored to an extent in the North and East in the initial stages of resettlement. More than
12,000 houses are under construction or have been constructed by the Indian government as
of May 2013. India plans to build a total of 50,000 housing units for the resettled families in
the North and East.[154]
Reconstruction of Key Economic and Social Infrastructure

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka has kept record of government-directed transport, health, and
economic infrastructure reconstruction programs in the conflict-affected areas of the North
and East[155], the details of which have been included in the next paragraphs as they help to
grasp the extent of reconstruction and development work required to rebuild a war-torn and
underdeveloped region. Key transport infrastructures have been rebuilt in conflict-affected
areas in the North and East of the country, including the Paranthan-Pooneryn Highway, the
A32 and A35, as well as 250 km of railroad.[156] The water supply was restored through the
Jaffna Peninsula, and Mannar-Vavuniya water supply schemes and ten main water tanks were
reconstructed in the Eastern Province. More water tanks are being rebuilt, including the
Iranamadu water tank destroyed by the LTTE.[157] Electricity has been restored through the
Sampur Coal Power Project, with a power supply extended to Mankulam, Kilinochchi and
Vavuniya, and a new electrification scheme in Vavuniya. More than 2,400 power lines have
been installed.
Reconstruction of key economic infrastructure included increased banking and finance

facilities in the North and East: 385 private and public bank branches and extension offices
had been established by 2011, while all banks had branches with microfinance schemes and
loan facilities with credit guarantee schemes in the North and East. Self-Help Groups (SHGs),
organised by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, were formed in the Northern and Eastern
Provinces to improve financial inclusiveness of low-income groups.[158] The traditional
fishing industry has been able to rebound as harbours have been upgraded, fishing restrictions
removed. In addition, several tax and other concessions were made in government budgets
41 December 2013
(from 2012) to encourage investment in agriculture and fisheries in the North and East.
Several hundred private companies[159] have supported social and economic reintegration in
the North and East through large-scale business investments or grassroots level initiatives.
[160]
A smaller-scale, yet notable, social reintegration initiative was undertaken in November 2012
by the Sri Lankan Army in its recruitment of 100 young Tamil women between the ages of 18
and 22 years from the Northeast (Killinochchi and Mullaitivu areas) as Sri Lankan Army
soldiers.[161] This program helped these young women and their families to overcome socio-
economic hardship faced by the still underdeveloped region, and prevent their possible entry
into prostitution due to the lack of employment opportunities in the area. The families,
although initially reluctant, believe employment in the Sri Lankan Army brings income and
social status to their children’s lives.[162] The new recruits were enlisted into the Civil Affairs
Division and are to fill the communication gap between the generally Sinhala-speaking Army
officers and the Tamil-speaking communities in which they serve.[163] The recruits have
received a unique reconciliation-oriented military training in a friendly environment, which
included field excursions to Colombo with opportunities to establish new friendships with
university students in Colombo.[164]
Some important examples of social development programs have been undertaken by

community and charity organisations in conflict-affected areas. The North Empowerment
Project of the Foundation of Goodness serves 50,000 beneficiaries and aims to empower
communities with developmental projects in healthcare, education, business development,
and sports. Sri Lanka Unites, a youth movement for reconciliation, works to motivate young
leaders in schools across the country and in the Tamil diaspora to engage constructively in
reconciliation efforts in post-conflict Sri Lanka. “Happiness Centres” conduct psychosocial
programs in schools in the North and East through centres equipped with arts and craft
material, sports equipment, musical instruments, and a library including TV/DVD resources
to support children in overcoming trauma, while providing a Children’s Accelerated Trauma
Therapy Training course for teachers and supervisors of the Happiness Centres.[165]
Political Engagement and Other National Reconciliation Initiatives

A notable strategy adopted by the Sri Lankan government for political engagement with the
Tamil community is the integration of former LTTE leaders in the ruling United People’s
Freedom Alliance (UPFA) coalition government. The break-away former LTTE commander of
the East, Vinayagamurthi Muralitharan, also known as Karuna, a former child combatant,
joined the Sri Lankan government as the Vice President of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party
(SLFP), and entered into mainstream politics with his appointment as the Deputy Minister of
Resettlement. Similarly, the rehabilitated LTTE leaders Selvarasa Pathmanathan, also known
as KP, former leader of the LTTE’s international network for fundraising and weapons
procurement, and Velayutham Dayanthi, also known as Daya Master, former LTTE
42 December 2013
spokesman and leader of the propaganda wing, are due to enter national politics through
membership in the SLFP.[166]
The government has appointed an all-party Parliamentary Select Committee to discuss the
implementation of the recommendations of Sri Lanka’s Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation
Commission (LLRC) report submitted in November 2011, including the contested 13th
Amendment to the constitution[167] and the subject of devolution of power to the provinces.
Challenges remain as the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) political party has declined its
participation in the Committee, fearing its participation will be construed as agreement to
possible decisions made by the Committee based on a majority consensus (which the TNA
believes it will be in opposition with). Presently, the main oppositional Tamil political parties
such as the TNA are not viewed as effectively engaging with the Sri Lankan government or
genuinely committed to the national reconciliation process, as they are ethnic-based sectarian
parties which sympathise with the separatist ideology of the LTTE.[168] TNA leaders also
openly associate with pro-LTTE organisations working against the Sri Lankan state outside the
country, such as the Transnational Government of Tamil Eelam (TGTE) and Global Tamil
Forum (GTF).[169] With the LTTE having systematically assassinated many prominent and
popular Tamil political leaders in Sri Lanka, there is a great need for a new generation of
mainstream Tamil politicians who are willing to serve all ethnic communities, and assume
national leadership roles in Sri Lanka (such as Lakshman Kadirgamar, the two-time Foreign
Minister of Sri Lanka and likely presidential candidate who was supported by all ethnic groups
of Sri Lanka, and was assassinated by the LTTE in August 2005 for that very reason).
In September 2013, elections were held in the conflict-affected, Tamil dominated Northern
Province for the first time in 25 years.[170] However, the majority of the northern Tamil
population voted for the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) which had an election manifesto that
espoused the self-determination of the Tamil people, thereby rejecting the ruling coalition
government. While conducting provincial elections is a great step towards establishing
normalcy in conflict-affected areas, the election results clearly reveal that the Sri Lankan
government has not reached the “hearts and minds” of the Northern population, despite its
many large-scale projects for economic development in the North.[171] Firstly, to earnestly
engage the conflict-affected Tamil population, the Sri Lankan government must provide
means to achieve immediate livelihood relief. A survey conducted in August 2013 showed that
much of the conflict-affected population continues to suffer from food insecurity.[172]
Additionally, there is much more the Sri Lankan government must provide to the Northern
population to promote reconciliation in the North, such as allowing local participation in the
implementation of development programs,[173] vocational training programs for the people
(for goods/services with a market demand), psychological counseling for victims of violence,
and recruiting a sufficient number of Tamil-speaking police officers, hospital staff, and
government officials to the North to effectively serve the local population. It is encouraging
that 900 Tamil police officers and 1,500 Tamil-speaking Sinhalese police officers have been
43 December 2013
stationed in the Northern and Eastern Provinces recently, so that Tamil residents are able to
make statements to the police in Tamil.[174]
Other initiatives in reconciliation efforts include the commission established in August 2013
by the president of Sri Lanka to investigate cases of missing persons, including abductions and
disappearances, in the Northern and Eastern Provinces.[175] The commission is to produce a
report within six months.[176] If conducted sincerely and transparently, as with the Lessons
Learned and Reconciliation Commission report of 2011[177], the work of this commission
has the potential to greatly increase the trust between the Sri Lankan government and the
conflict-affected community of the North and East. Also in 2013, the University Grants
Commission of Sri Lanka (UGC) began to establish Harmony Centres in universities to
promote harmony and reconciliation among university students belonging to different ethnic
and religious groups.[178] The Education Ministry of Sri Lanka announced in July 2013 that
no new schools are to be established on the basis of ethnicity.[179] This policy decision is
meant to support national reconciliation efforts, as roots of the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka
also lie in the segregation of communities from childhood through ethnically or linguistically
segregated schools.
The National Reconciliation Unit at the Office of the Adviser on Reconciliation to the
President, Prof. Rajiva Wijesinha, has conducted more than a hundred events promoting
national reconciliation.[180] The Sri Lankan Reconciliation Youth Forum of the National
Reconciliation Unit disseminates information and exchanges ideas, views, and suggestions on
Sri Lanka’s post-conflict reconciliation and development process.[181] A series of National
Conferences on Reconciliation are organised by the Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute of
International Relations and Strategic Studies (under the purview of the Ministry of External
Affairs) to foster reconciliation and further constructive dialogue, in accordance with its
objective of “engaging and promoting peace and addressing post-conflict issues” as per the
Institute’s Act.[182] Sri Lanka has also embarked on many other impactful state- and non-state
led national reconciliation initiatives.[183]
Recommendations to Address Shortcomings in National Reconciliation Programs and the

Lasting Challenge Posed by the LTTE’s International Disinformation Campaign
There are many aspects to reconciliation that remain to be strengthened, including the
aftercare system for rehabilitated combatants, economic development of conflicted-affected
areas, provision of public services to their population, and overarching reconciliation
programs. The establishment of an ongoing monitoring and mentoring mechanism to support
reintegrated former combatants is imperative for these vulnerable individuals, as they are
targets of re-radicalisation by existing remnant members of the LTTE domestically and
overseas. A monitoring mechanism is also important to ensure the security of the resettled
former combatants, who may be harassed by members of their communities as a reaction to
violence inflicted on them by the LTTE in the past. An assessment technique such as Multi-
44 December 2013
attribute Evaluation (ME) can also be developed to gauge the outcomes of Sri Lanka’s
rehabilitation program (W-RRR), and to check whether its planned goals and objectives have
been met.[184]
More government support must be given to secure basic needs, as the (six-month) care
package after resettlement was not sufficient for the survival of the resettled communities due
to the lack of livelihood opportunities in the conflict-affected areas. Similarly, the three-month
reinsertion package provided was also not sufficient financial and material assistance for
resettled and rehabilitated former combatants. Many households in the conflict-affected zone
are still believed to be food insecure,[185] despite the government’s initiatives for the conflict-
affected households to adopt home-gardens and animal husbandry. Thus, sustainable
economic development programs that can immediately improve the living standards of the
conflicted-affected population should be adopted by the state as soon as possible. In the future,
the government should also ensure that there is more local participation in implementing
development programs.[186] District secretariats must be empowered to implement
reconciliation initiatives, including local economic development through small and medium-
sized enterprises (SMEs). More support is needed for small and medium scale industries in
the conflict-affected areas.[187] In studying how to achieve successful economic reintegration
of the conflict-affected people, Sri Lanka can study the Malaysian approach more closely,
where significant improvement in the socio-economic conditions of the vulnerable population
was identified as a key to preventing their exploitation by extremist elements in society.[188]
Psychological counseling and assistance should be provided systematically through

government-NGO partnerships for the conflict-affected population, beginning with victims of
violence and vulnerable groups such as war widows and children. There should also be quicker
implementation of the government’s trilingual language policy[189], so that, for example, the
conflict-affected population has access to Tamil-speaking public officers serving in hospitals
and in government offices.[190] An overarching, specialised government infrastructure for
national reconciliation initiatives, with a monitoring and evaluation mechanism, should be
established as soon as possible. The failure to move more quickly in the implementation of the
National Human Rights Action Plan (as well as the trilingual language policy) has been
attributed to the absence of a dedicated ministry for reconciliation.[191] An overarching body
for reconciliation can engage with, and facilitate collaboration between, the different sectors
and segments of the country to bring about meaningful changes.
The government should work more proactively with private sector organisations to increase
investment in conflict-affected areas and to encourage more north-south business
partnerships. More public-private partnerships and tax concessions and finance for key
industries are needed to spur economic growth in the conflict-affected areas. Linking the
economies of these regions to the national economy may be the most organic, effective, and
sustainable approach to unite the country. Reconciliation cannot be achieved by state
directives alone. For this, more transport infrastructure needs to be developed by way of a
railway connection that provides direct connection between Jaffna and Colombo.
45 December 2013
National reconciliation and interethnic harmony can perhaps be achieved most effectively
through education and culture. Firstly, there must be an increase in the quality of education,
including higher education, to meet international standards throughout Sri Lanka, so that the
generations to come can more easily enter local and global job markets. To foster
reconciliation, it is imperative that educational courses in interethnic studies and studies in
comparative religion in the context of Sri Lanka be introduced into school and university
curriculums. Restoring and reviving the cultural heritage of all communities, especially that of
the Tamil community, is an urgent and integral part of the national reconciliation process.
[192] To gain the goodwill of the northern Tamil people, it is also necessary to reduce the
military presence in the North. At the same time, the necessary measures for national security
should be retained so that a resurgence of terrorism can be prevented. State recognition of
those perished due to the conflict, including in the end phase, is important for reconciliation.
In this regard, it is very encouraging that the Sri Lankan government has recently announced
that a nationwide census will be conducted to determine the number of lives lost during the
26-year long conflict.[193] Lastly, strengthening principles of democratic governance by
investigation into alleged crimes committed by individual members of the Sri Lankan security
forces, politicians, and gangs is essential to regain the trust of the whole population as well as
the international community.
While the government of Sri Lanka faces such significant challenges in achieving post-conflict
reconciliation, the most formidable threat to its hard-won peace remains the LTTE’s remnant
factions, front organisations, and financing and propaganda units that have survived abroad.
Although the LTTE is militarily defeated, second and third tier leaders and cells operating in
southern India and Western countries are attempting to create unrest, revive terrorism, and
hamper economic development[194] in Sri Lanka. They continue to present a distorted view
of Sri Lanka and continue to radicalise Tamil youth living outside of Sri Lanka.[195]
As a measure to counter the LTTE’s tech-savvy and multi-lingual propaganda machine and its
worldwide mass dissemination of separatist ideology and disinformation, the Sri Lankan
diplomatic arm should, without further delay, embrace new information communication
technologies (ICTs) in its conduct of public diplomacy as well as in day-to-day diplomatic
work. While traditional measures to ensure the security of information and communication
should not be forsaken, ICTs will increase the speed, reach, and effectiveness of
communication by officials of Sri Lanka’s bureau of foreign affairs. This will also enhance the
state’s capacity to engage with the Tamil diaspora, counter reporting against the Sri Lankan
state by ill-informed or ill-willed NGOs and other institutions, circulate positive news items of
stories of post-conflict Sri Lanka, as well as normalise relations with nations hosting large
communities of diaspora Tamils. The LTTE’s leadership has been rightly described as “masters
of deception”[196]: the LTTE’s penetration into civil society and legitimate governments in the
West remains unparalleled by other terror groups due to diaspora constituency pressures.[197]
Post-conflict reconciliation and reconstruction is by nature a long-term process. Thus, Sri

Lankans, the Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora, and the world must allow the democratic, culturally
46 December 2013
developed, and traditionally ethnically harmonious country to heal itself in an organic,

sustainable, and responsible manner, in a period of time that is roughly proportional to the
more than 25 years it grappled with a terrorist insurgency that also fuelled inter-communal
mistrust.
About the Author: Iromi Dharmawardhane is a Research Analyst at the International Centre
for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR), S. Rajaratnam School of International
Studies (RSIS), NTU in Singapore. Her areas of interest and research include international
relations, counter-terrorism, post-conflict reconciliation, and religion and philosophy. She holds a
B.A. in International Studies from Monash University (Australia). She is completing a Master of
Commerce Degree at the University of Kelaniya (Sri Lanka). Her recent focus has been on
extremist religious ideologies. She has written a book on comparative religion, entitled ‘The Good
Life: An Introduction to Religion and Consciousness’ (forthcoming at Stamford Lake Publishers).
Notes
[1] An earlier version of this article was published in the ICPVTR Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis (CTTA) magazine in March 2013
(5:3).
[2] “Taming the Tamil Tigers from Here in the U.S,” Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) website, Jan. 10, 2008, accessed Sept. 25, 2013,
http://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2008/january/tamil_tigers011008;
“Suicide Attacks by the LTTE,” South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), accessed Sept. 25, 2013, http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/
shrilanka/database/data_suicide_killings.htm.
[3] “Child Soldiers of The Liberation Tiger of Tamil Eelam (LTTE),” South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/shrilanka/terroristoutfits/child_solders.htm;
“Sri Lanka: Tamil Tigers Forcibly Recruit Child Soldiers,” Human Rights Watch, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.hrw.org/news/2004/11/09/
sri-lanka-tamil-tigers-forcibly-recruit-child-soldiers;
Jaya Menon, “Child soldiers fight LTTE ghosts”, The Times of India, June 24, 2009, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2009-06-24/south-asia/28185065_1_ltte-cadres-kilinochchi-ltte-bunker;
Stephen Sackur, “A Sri Lankan re-education for Tamil child soldiers”, British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), June 5, 2010, accessed Oct. 30,
2013, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8721974.stm.
[4] Jo Becker, “Canada’s Tamils Must Rethink LTTE Support,” Human Rights Watch, accessed Sept. 25, 2013, http://www.hrw.org/english/
docs/2004/12/20/slanka9918.htm.
[5] Asoka Bandarage, “Sri Lanka Towards Peace: An Alternative Perspective,” India Quarterly 68, no. 2 (2012): 103-118.
[6] “Prominent Political Leaders Assassinated by The LTTE,” South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.satp.org/
satporgtp/countries/shrilanka/database/index.html.
[7] The Telegraph, “Britain Accuses Tamil Tigers of Using Civilians as Human Shields,” April 16, 2009, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/srilanka/5161118/Britain-accuses-Tamil-Tigers-of-using-civilians-as-human-shields.html;
Nick Meo, “Civilian "Human Shields" Only weapon Left for LTTE,” Sunday Telegraph, March 26, 2013, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
transcurrents.com/tc/2009/04/civilian_human_shields_only_we.html;
Rajiva Wijesinha in “Sri Lanka Responds to ‘War Crimes’ Claims”, YouTube video, posted by “Al-Jazeera English”, June 15, 2011, accessed Oct.
30, 2013, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdrCR-X4iH0&feature=channel_video_title;
“Subject: Sri Lanka: S/Wci Amb. Williamson’s Geneva Meetings,” Spesial Wikileaks-dokumenter, July 15, 2009, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
www.aftenposten.no/spesial/wikileaksdokumenter/article4109603.ece.
[8] A. A. Gill, “Judged,” The Sunday Times, June 20, 2011 in “Appalling Journalism: Jon Snow and Channel 4 News on Sri Lanka,” Sri Lanka
Media Watch, November 2011, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://engagesrilanka.com/images/Appalling%20Journalism.pdf.
[9] Peter Chalk, “Commentary No. 77: Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam’s (LTTE) International Organisation and Operations - A Preliminary
Analysis,” Canadian Security Intelligence Service website, Winter 1999, accessed Sept. 25, 2013, http://www.csis-scrs.gc.ca/pblctns/cmmntr/
cm77-eng.asp;
Jo Becker, “Canada’s Tamils Must Rethink LTTE Support,” Human Rights Watch, accessed Sept. 25, 2013, http://www.hrw.org/english/docs/
2004/12/20/slanka9918.htm;
47 December 2013
Shanaka Jayasekera, “TGTE Attempts to Gain Recognition in South Sudan: Govt Must Renew Counter-terrorism Strategies,” Sunday
Observer, March 20, 2011, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.sundayobserver.lk/2011/03/20/fea13.asp;
Peter Chalk, “Tigers Abroad: How the LTTE Diaspora Supports the Conflict in Sri Lanka,” Georgetown Journal of International Affairs 9, no. 2
(2008): 97-103.
http://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2008/january/tamil_tigers011008.
[11] “Ban Denies UN Covered Up Death Toll in Sri Lanka,” Reuters, June 2, 2009, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://news.asiaone.com/News/
Latest+News/Asia/Story/A1Story20090602-145445.html;
“Report to Congress on Incidents During the Recent Conflict in Sri Lanka,” U.S. Department of State website, accessed October 30, 2013,
http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/131025.pdf.
[12] “Ban Denies UN Covered Up Death Toll in Sri Lanka,” Reuters, June 2, 2009, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://news.asiaone.com/News/
Latest+News/Asia/Story/A1Story20090602-145445.html.
[13] “Report to Congress on Incidents During the Recent Conflict in Sri Lanka,” U.S. Department of State website, accessed October 30, 2013,
http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/131025.pdf.
[14] Rohan Gunaratna in “Defence Seminar Sri Lanka 2013 – Dr. Rohan Gunaratna”, YouTube video, posted by “SL Army Director Training,”
Sept. 5, 2013, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TykYCXSmb50.
[15] Shihar Aneez, “Sri Lanka says U.N. Report on Tamil War Casualties Wrong, Biased,” Reuters, Nov. 23, 2012, accessed Oct. 30, 2013,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/23/us-srilanka-un-idUSBRE8AM0J420121123.
[16] Ibid;
“Sri Lanka Hits Out at UN’s Petrie Report,” Ministry of Defence and Urban Development Sri Lanka website, Nov. 27, 2012, accessed Oct. 30,
2013, http://www.defence.lk/new.asp?fname=Sri_Lanka_hits_out_at_UN_Petrie_report_20121127_03.
[17] Gethin Chamberlain, “Sri Lanka Death Toll 'Unacceptably High', Says UN,” The Guardian, May 29, 2009, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
www.theguardian.com/world/2009/may/29/sri-lanka-casualties-united-nations.
[18] “US Backs Navi’s Assessment on SL,” Daily Mirror, Sept. 26, 2013, accessed Oct. 30, 2013,
http://www.dailymirror.lk/news/36120-us-backs-navis-assessment-on-sl.html.
[20] “Sri Lanka Hits Out at UN’s Petrie Report,” Ministry of Defence and Urban Development Sri Lanka website, Nov. 27, 2012, accessed Oct.
30, 2013, http://www.defence.lk/new.asp?fname=Sri_Lanka_hits_out_at_UN_Petrie_report_20121127_03.
[21] Ashok Mehta, “Sri Lanka’s Ethnic Conflict: How Eelam Way IV was Won,” Manekshaw Paper, no. 22 (2010), Centre for Land Warfare
Studies (CLAWS), New Delhi. .
[22] “Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE),” South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), accessed Sept. 25, 2013, http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/
countries/shrilanka/terroristoutfits/LTTE.HTM.
[23] Sri Lanka’s Killing Fields (2011), Sri Lanka’s Killing Fields: War Crimes Unpunished (2012), No Fire Zone: In the Killing Fields of Sri Lanka
(2013)
[24] Rajiva Wijesinha in “Sri Lanka Responds to ‘War Crimes’ Claims”, YouTube video, posted by “Al-Jazeera English”, June 15, 2011, accessed
Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdrCR-X4iH0&feature=channel_video_title.
[25] Ibid
[26] A. A. Gill, “Judged,” The Sunday Times, June 20, 2011 in “Appalling Journalism: Jon Snow and Channel 4 News on Sri Lanka,” Sri Lanka
Media Watch, November 2011, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://engagesrilanka.com/images/Appalling%20Journalism.pdf.
[27] “Subject: Sri Lanka: S/Wci Amb. Williamson’s Geneva Meetings,” Spesial Wikileaks-dokumenter, July 15, 2009, accessed Oct. 30, 2013,
http://www.aftenposten.no/spesial/wikileaksdokumenter/article4109603.ece.
[28] Bryson Hull and Ranga Srilal, Ranga, “Sri Lanka Says Avoiding Civilian Deaths was "Impossible”,” Reuters, Aug. 1, 2011, accessed Oct. 30,
2013, http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/08/01/idINIndia-58562720110801.
[29] Frances Harrison, “‘Tamils Still Being Raped and Tortured’ in Sri Lanka,” British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), last updated Nov. 9,
2013, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24849699.
[30] It is also believed that some former LTTE combatants and others who have sought asylum in Western countries have assumed new
identities, while they continue to be considered “missing” in Sri Lanka.
Shamindra Ferdinando, “Some Considered Missing Given New Identities, Living Abroad – Gotabhaya,” The Island, August 18, 2013, accessed
Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.island.lk/index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=86135.
[31] Shamindra Ferdinando, “Some Considered Missing Given New Identities, Living Abroad – Gotabhaya,” The Island, August 18, 2013,
accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.island.lk/index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=86135
48 December 2013
[32] Peter Chalk, “Commentary No. 77: Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam’s (LTTE) International Organisation and Operations - A
Preliminary Analysis,” Canadian Security Intelligence Service website, Winter 1999, accessed Sept. 25, 2013, http://www.csis-scrs.gc.ca/pblctns/
cmmntr/cm77-eng.asp.
[33] Peter Chalk, “The LTTE Insurgency in Sri Lanka,” in Ethnic Conflict and Secessionism in South and Southeast Asia, (eds) Rajat Ganguly
and Ian Macduff (New Delhi and London: Sage Publications, 2003), 147.
[34] After LTTE’s founding leader Prabhakaran died in Sri Lanka in May 2009, Nediyavan declared himself as the leader of the LTTE. : D.B.S.
Jeyaraj, ““KP” Speaks Out: An Interview with Former Tiger Chief,” Aug. 6, 2010, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://dbsjeyaraj.com/dbsj/archives/
1607; D.B.S. Jeyaraj, ““KP” Speaks Out: An Interview with Former Tiger Chief,” Aug. 6, 2010, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://dbsjeyaraj.com/
dbsj/archives/1631.
[35] There is a convergence between the Nediyavan Faction and the Joe Emmanuel Faction:
Observer, March 20, 2011, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.sundayobserver.lk/2011/03/20/fea13.asp.
[36] The Transnational Government of Tamil Eelam (TGTE) overtly supports the LTTE and uses its insignia such as the LTTE flag. See:
Colombo Gazette, “Rudrakumar Wants Ties with India”, June 13, 2013, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://colombogazette.com/2013/06/13/
rudrakumar-wants-ties-with-india/;
The leader/ “Prime Minister” of the TGTE, Visvanathan Rudrakumaran, was the international legal advisor to the Liberational Tigers of Tamil
Eelam (LTTE) terrorist organisation and Velupillai Prabhakaran, the late (former) leader of the of the LTTE as well as responsible for the
LTTE’s international affairs.
[37] The Vinyagam faction is primarily an LTTE criminal network:
[38] Shanaka Jayasekera, “TGTE Attempts to Gain Recognition in South Sudan: Govt Must Renew Counter-terrorism Strategies,” Sunday
Studies (CLAWS), New Delhi.
[40] Shanaka Jayasekera, “TGTE Attempts to Gain Recognition in South Sudan: Govt Must Renew Counter-terrorism Strategies,” Sunday
[41] Ibid.
Studies (CLAWS), New Delhi;
Debabani Majumdar, “Tamil gangs tackled from ‘Within’,” British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) News, Feb. 26, 2007, accessed Oct. 30, 2013,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/london/6380817.stm.
[43] Including funds collected for Tamil social service, medical, and rehabilitation programs but are used by the LTTE:
Peter Chalk, “The LTTE Insurgency in Sri Lanka,” in Ethnic Conflict and Secessionism in South and Southeast Asia, (eds) Rajat Ganguly and
Ian Macduff (New Delhi and London: Sage Publications, 2003), 146 - 147.
[44] Asoka Bandarage, “Sri Lanka Towards Peace: An Alternative Perspective,” India Quarterly 68, no. 2 (2012): 103-118.
[45] “Sri Lanka,” Library of Congress Country Studies, last updated Oct. 1988, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://lcweb2.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/r?
frd/cstdy:@field(DOCID+lk0012).
[46] Descendents of the Portuguese and Dutch who settled in Sri Lanka during colonial times (many intermarried with the Sinhalese and
Tamils)
[47] Thomas Sowell, Affirmative Action Around the World: An Empirical Study (New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 2004), 82-83.
[48] Anglicized “Yarlpanam”.
[49] Shenali Waduge, “The Sinhala Only Policy, Tamil “Rights” And The Validity Of Calling Buddhists Extremist In Sri Lanka – OpEd,”
Eurasia Review, Jan. 17, 2013, http://www.eurasiareview.com/17012013-the-sinhala-only-policy-tamil-rights-and-the-validity-of-calling-
buddhists-extremist-in-sri-lanka-oped/.
[50] Asoka Bandarage, “Sri Lanka Towards Peace: An Alternative Perspective,” India Quarterly 68, no. 2 (2012): 103 - 118.
[51] Ibid.
[52] Ibid.
[53] Ibid.
Shenali Waduge, “The Sinhala Only Policy, Tamil “Rights” And The Validity Of Calling Buddhists Extremist In Sri Lanka – OpEd,” Eurasia
Review, Jan. 17, 2013, http://www.eurasiareview.com/17012013-the-sinhala-only-policy-tamil-rights-and-the-validity-of-calling-buddhists-
extremist-in-sri-lanka-oped/.
[54] Sirimavo Bandaranaike was the world’s first female head of state.
49 December 2013
[55] Thomas Sowell, Affirmative Action Around the World: An Empirical Study (New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 2004), 88.
[57] “Sri Lanka: Election of 1977 and More Violence,” Library of Congress Country Studies, last updated Oct. 1988, accessed Oct. 30, 2013,
http://lcweb2.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/r?frd/cstdy:@field(DOCID+lk0012).
[58] The LTTE was later also known as the “Tamil Tigers” as a shortened form of the group’s name.
[59] Peter Chalk, “The LTTE Insurgency in Sri Lanka,” in Ethnic Conflict and Secessionism in South and Southeast Asia, (Eds.) Rajat Ganguly
[60] “Sri Lanka: Election of 1977 and More Violence,” Library of Congress Country Studies, last updated Oct. 1988, accessed Oct. 30, 2013,
http://lcweb2.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/r?frd/cstdy:@field(DOCID+lk0012).
[61] Ibid.
[62] Ibid.
[63] Ibid.
http://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2008/january/tamil_tigers011008;
Thomas Sowell, Affirmative Action Around the World: An Empirical Study (New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 2004), 89.
[65] “Sri Lanka: The Riots of July 1983,” Library of Congress Country Studies, last updated Oct. 1988, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
lcweb2.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/r?frd/cstdy:@field(DOCID+lk0012).
[66] Ibid.
[68] “Sri Lanka: The Riots of July 1983,” Library of Congress Country Studies, last updated Oct. 1988, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
[69] Asoka Bandarage, “The Sri Lankan Conflict: A Multi-polar Approach,” Harvard International Review, accessed Sept. 25, 2013, http://
bandarage.com/publications-and-presentations/.
[71] “Suicide Attacks by the LTTE,” South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), accessed Sept. 25, 2013, http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/
shrilanka/database/data_suicide_killings.htm.
[72] Ministry of External Affairs of Sri Lanka, LTTE: A Trail of Atrocities, July 2007.
[73] “LTTE leader pays homage to Black Tigers,” TamilNet, July 6, 2008, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?
catid=13&artid=26268.
[74] “Ceasefire Violations,” South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), accessed Sept. 25, 2013, http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/shrilanka/
database/Ceasefire_Violation.htm.
[75] ] Stewart Bell, “Inside Sri Lanka: Your Cash Going to Arms, Say Ex-rebels,” National Post, Sept, 22, 2008, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
www.nationalpost.com/todays_paper/story.html?id=813314;
G. L. Peiris, G.L, “Secessionist War and Terrorism in Sri Lanka: Transnational Impulses,” accessed Oct. 1, 2008, http://
www.protectsrilanka.org/Articles.html.
[76] Ministry of External Affairs of Sri Lanka, LTTE: A Trail of Atrocities, July 2007.
[77] “Sri Lanka: Chapter 1 Historical Setting,” Library of Congress Country Studies, last updated Oct. 1988, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
lcweb2.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/r?frd/cstdy:@field(DOCID+lk0012);
Sudharshan Seneviratne, “Heritage of an Island Civilization,”Special Report: Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting 2013 (London:
First, 2013);
Rasanayagarn (1926) in D.G.A Perera, “The Truth about the ‘Tamil Kingdom’ of Jaffna Peninsula,” Ministry of Defence and Urban
Development Sri Lanka website, last updated Dec. 30, 2010, http://www.defence.lk/new.asp?fname=20060706_03; Horsburgh (1916) in
“Sinhalese Place Names in the Jaffna Peninsula,” The Ceylon Antiquary (Vol. II, Part 1), accessed Oct. 1, 2008, http://www.geocities.com/
place.names/horsburgh.doc.
[78] “Sri Lanka: The Eastern Province Question,” Library of Congress Country Studies, last updated Oct. 1988, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
[79] Rasika Jayakody, “Trail of Terror: Is July Still Black? Sinhalese Factor in the Aftermath of Black July,” The Nation, July 28, 2013, accessed
Sept. 25, 2013, http://www.nation.lk/edition/news-features/item/19604-trail-of-terror-is-july-still-black?-sinhalese-factor-in-the-aftermath-
of-black-july.html.
[80] Peter Chalk, “The LTTE Insurgency in Sri Lanka,” in Ethnic Conflict and Secessionism in South and Southeast Asia, (Eds.) Rajat Ganguly
50 December 2013
[81] Jo Becker, “Canada’s Tamils Must Rethink LTTE Support,” Human Rights Watch, accessed Sept. 25, 2013, http://www.hrw.org/english/
docs/2004/12/20/slanka9918.htm.
[82] “Sri Lankan Expatriates Protest Against LTTE Terrorism,” Permanent Mission of Sri Lanka to the United Nations website, last updated July
28, 2008, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.lankamission.org/content/view/590/2/;
R. Srikanthan, “LTTE Domination in the United Kingdom,” Daily News, Jan. 23, 2007, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://archives.dailynews.lk/
2007/01/23/fea02.asp.
[83] Although the Sinhalese and Tamils have a long history of living harmoniously in Sri Lanka, they have a culturally distinct heritage and
identity. The Sinhalese first came to the island in the 6th century B.C.E. from Orissa in the north-east of India, followed by waves of migration
from different parts of India in ancient times. Sri Lanka, then regionally known just as Lanka, was at that time already inhabited by some
indigenous tribes whose identity was neither Sinhalese nor Tamil. The northern Sinhalese kingdoms were infrequently invaded since the 2nd
century B.C.E. by South Indian kingdoms and in the 14th century a Tamil South Indian dynasty established a kingdom in the northern most
part of Sri Lanka, which is now known as Jaffna. The Jaffna Peninsula comprises much of the land mass of the medieval Jaffna Tamil kingdom.
Large stretches of north-central jungles separated the Sinhalese and the Tamils at this time, and as a result the Tamils developed a more
“distinct and confident” culture, reinforced by the revival of Hinduism in India. They looked to South India for culture and tradition.
Generally, both the Sinhalese and Sri Lankan Tamils view themselves as being unique due to their language, ethnicity, culture, and religion. :
“Sri Lanka: Rise of Sinhalese and Tamil Ethnic Awareness,” Library of Congress Country Studies, last updated Oct. 1988, accessed Oct. 30,
2013, http://lcweb2.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/r?frd/cstdy:@field(DOCID+lk0012);
“Sri Lanka: Background,” The World Factbook, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/
ce.html;
“Sri Lanka: Decline of the Sinhalese Kingdom, 1200-1500: Invasion, Disease, and Social Instability,” Library of Congress Country Studies, last
updated Oct. 1988, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://lcweb2.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/r?frd/cstdy:@field(DOCID+lk0012);
“Sri Lanka: Politics and Society: Race, Religion, and Politics,” Library of Congress Country Studies, last updated Oct. 1988, accessed Oct. 30,
2013, http://lcweb2.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/r?frd/cstdy:@field(DOCID+lk0012).
[84] Sudharshan Seneviratne, “Heritage of an Island Civilization,” Special Report: Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting 2013
(London: First, 2013).
[85] Holt in Mavis L. Fenn, “A Review of Buddhist Fundamentalism and Minority Identities in Sri Lanka,” Journal of Buddhist Ethics,
accessed Oct 1, 2008, http://www.buddhistethics.org/6/fenn991.html.
[86] Sacred footprint rock formation at summit of a small mountain in central Sri Lanka.
[87] Sudharshan Seneviratne, “Heritage of an Island Civilization, ”Special Report: Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting 2013
(London: First, 2013).
[88] Walter Jayawardhana, “Tamil Tigers Entered a Sinhalese Village Preparing for the New Year Festival and Slaughtered Ruthlessly Six
Women and a Man,” Asian Tribune, April 13, 2013, accessed October 30, 2013, http://www.asiantribune.com/node/5301.
[89] Rasika Jayakody, “Trail of Terror: Is July Still Black? Sinhalese Factor in the Aftermath of Black July,” The Nation, July 28, 2013, accessed
Sept. 25, 2013, http://www.nation.lk/edition/news-features/item/19604-trail-of-terror-is-july-still-black?-sinhalese-factor-in-the-aftermath-
of-black-july.html.
[91] Azerbaijan, Belarus, Brazil, China, Cuba, Egypt, Indonesia, Japan, Kuwait, Myanmar, New Zealand, Pakistan, The Philippines, The
Russian Federation, South Sudan, Thailand, Uzbekistan, Venezuela:
UNHRC Member States Commend Progress in Sri Lanka’s Reconciliation Process,” Colombo Page, Sept. 28, 2013, accessed Oct. 30, 2013,
http://www.colombopage.com/archive_13B/Sep28_1380351664CH.php.
[92] UNHRC Member States Commend Progress in Sri Lanka’s Reconciliation Process,” Colombo Page, Sept. 28, 2013, accessed Oct. 30, 2013,
http://www.colombopage.com/archive_13B/Sep28_1380351664CH.php.
[93] Brigadier Darshana Hettiarachchi, (Former) Commissioner General of Rehabilitation, Telephone Interview, January 15, 2013.
[94] Ibid.
[95] Malkanthi Hettiarachchi, “Sri Lanka’s Rehabilitation Program: A New Frontier in Counter Terrorism and Counter Insurgency,” PRISM:
Journal of the Center for Complex Operations 4, no. 2 (2013), 105 - 119.
[96] For example, the LTTE carried out attacks on key economic infrastructures such as the Central Bank of Sri Lanka and the Bandaranaike
International Airport. The LTTE also targeted ancient religious sites, engaged in the systematic assassination of prominent Tamil and
Sinhalese political leaders, conducted“ethnic cleansing” campaigns of Sinhalese and Muslims from the North of Sri Lanka and continuously
attacked civilians in the South.
[97] Jaya Menon, “Child soldiers fight LTTE ghosts”, The Times of India, June 24, 2009, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
Rohan Gunaratna, “The LTTE and Suicide Terrorism,” Frontline 17, no. 3 (2000), accessed Sept. 25, 2013, http://www.frontline.in/static/html/
fl1703/17031060.htm;
51 December 2013
Ruwan M. Jayatunge, “The Psychopathology of the LTTE Suicide Bombers,” Groundviews.org, Feb. 20, 2009, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
groundviews.org/2009/02/20/the-psychopathology-of-the-ltte-suicide-bombers/;
“Netherlands to Probe LTTE Front Organizations Run Private Schools”, Colombo Page, Oct. 5, 2011, accessed Oct. 3o, 2013, http://
www.colombopage.com/archive_11B/Oct05_1317838745CH.php;
“Counterterrorist Body to Probe Tamil Schools,” Radio Netherlands Worldwide website, Oct. 5, 2011, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
www.rnw.nl/english/bulletin/counterterrorist-body-probe-tamil-schools.
[98] Camelia Nathaniel, “LTTE Rump Buying People with Accumulated Funds – Prof. G. L. Peiris,” The Sunday Leader, Sept. 8, 2013, http://
www.thesundayleader.lk/2013/09/08/ltte-rump-buying-people-with-accumulated-funds-prof-g-l-peiris/;
“Pro-LTTE Misinformation Campaign Cracked,” Sunday Observer, March 10, 2013, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.sundayobserver.lk/
2013/03/10/sec02.asp.
[99] “Child Soldiers of The Liberation Tiger of Tamil Eelam (LTTE),” South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/shrilanka/terroristoutfits/child_solders.htm;
“Sri Lanka: Tamil Tigers Forcibly Recruit Child Soldiers,” Human Rights Watch, Nov. 12, 2004, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.hrw.org/
news/2004/11/09/sri-lanka-tamil-tigers-forcibly-recruit-child-soldiers;
Jaya Menon, “Child soldiers fight LTTE ghosts”, The Times of India, June 24, 2009, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
Stephen Sackur, “A Sri Lankan re-education for Tamil child soldiers”, British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), June 5, 2010, accessed Oct. 30,
2013, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8721974.stm.
[100] Hamed El-Said, “De-Radicalising Islamists: Programmes and their Impact in Muslim Majority States”, Developments in Radicalisation
and Political Violence, 2012, International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence (ICSR), London.
[102] Ibid.
[103] Ibid.
[104]Rohan Gunaratna, “Conference Paper: Reconciliation after Terrorism: The Sri Lanka Experience,” D.B.S.Jeyaraj.com, accessed July 7,
2013, http://dbsjeyaraj.com/dbsj/archives/10144.
[105]Rohan Gunaratna, “Rehabilitating Sri Lanka’s Tamil Tigers,” Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis 2, no. 5 (2010): 5 - 9.
[106] Ibid.
[107] Ibid.
[108] Ibid.
[109] Ibid.
[111] “Colombo – Sri Lanka,” Global Cities Research Institute website, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://global-cities.info/placemarks/colombo-
sri-lanka.
[113] Ibid.
[114] Ibid.
[115] “Sri Lanka: Former Tamil Tigers still Searching for Reconciliation,” The Guardian, June 2, 2012, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
www.theguardian.com/global-development/2012/jun/04/sri-lanka-tamil-tigers-reconciliation.
[116] Some of the information cited in the preceeding paragraphs included in the passages dealing with the rehabilitation of former
combatants above were obtained through primary interviews with Sri Lanka’s (former) Commissioner General of Rehabilitation, Brigadier
Dharshana Hettiarachchi, and the Lead Psychologist of Sri Lanka’s rehabilitation program, Ms. Malkanthi Hettiarachchi as indicated by the
corresponding endnotes (Brigadier Dharshana Hettiarachchi and Ms. Malkanthi Hettiarachchi share the same last name, but are not related
to each other). Brigadier Dharshana Hettiarachchi was interviewed to verify the total number of rehabilitated combatants and related details
(up to January 2013 when the interview was conducted). Ms. Malkanthi Hettiarachchi was interviewed for clarification on psychological
assessments made with relation to the effectiveness of the rehabilitation program. Six primary interviews were conducted for the next section
on the rehabilitation of child combatants, specifically to gain more information on the program which included the special English Language
program and Girl Guides and Boy Scouts programs, as sufficient information was not available through secondary sources. Interviews were
with rehabilitated combatants were not conducted; this was due to constraints in time as well as due to the fact that the impact of the
rehabilitation program can be assessed through Kruglanski and Gelfand’s study of Sri Lanka’s rehabilitation program, which is based on
interviews with over 9,000 rehabilitees.
52 December 2013
[118] Ibid.
[119]“Empowering child soldiers”, The Sunday Times, March 27, 2011, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.sundaytimes.lk/110327/Magazine/
sundaytimesmirror_01.html.
[120] Bernadine Anderson, Owner and Principal - La Petite Fleur Montessori House of Children (LPF Schools), Face-to-face Interview,
Dehiwala, Sri Lanka, Dec. 6, 2012.
[121] Shanta Jayalath, Chief Commissioner of Sri Lanka Girl Guides Association, Face-to-face Interview, Sri Lanka Girl Guides Association
(Headquarters), Colombo, Sri Lanka, Dec. 10, 2012;
Mangala Peiris, Deputy Chief Commissioner of Sri Lanka Girl Guides Association, Face-to-face Interview Sri Lanka Girl Guides Association
(Headquarters), Colombo, Sri Lanka, Dec. 10, 2012;
Marlene Dissanayake, Provincial Commissioner (Former Chief Commissioner) of Sri Lanka Girl Guides Association, Face-to-face Interview,
Sri Lanka Girl Guides Association (Headquarters), Colombo, Sri Lanka, Dec. 10, 2012;
Nimal De Silva, Chief Commissioner of Sri Lanka Scouts Association, Face-to-face Interview, Sri Lanka Scout Association Headquarters,
Colombo, Sri Lanka, Dec. 10, 2012;
Gaitan Motha, Scoutmaster in Child Rehabilitation Program, Face-to-face Interview, Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute of International
Relations and Strategic Studies, Colombo, Sri Lanka, Dec. 17, 2012.
[122]Ibid.
[123]Gaitan Motha, Scoutmaster in Child Rehabilitation Program, Face-to-face Interview, Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute of International
Relations and Strategic Studies, Colombo, Sri Lanka, Dec. 17, 2012.
Journal of the Center for Complex Operations 4, no. 2 (2013), 105-119.
[125] Malkanthi Hettiarachchi, Lead Psychologist of Sri Lanka’s Rehabilitation Program, Telephone Interview, Oct. 29, 2013.
[126] Ibid.
[127] Ibid.
[128] Ibid.
[129] Arie Kruglanski in “Sri Lanka Defense Seminar 2012: Rehabilitation of Tamil Tigers,” YouTube video, posted by “Defence Sri
Lanka,”Aug. 10, 2012, accessed July 7, 2013, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-XDYL13a2M.
[130]Arie Kruglanski and Michelle Gelfand, Rehabilitation of Former LTTE Cadres in Sri Lanka: A Preliminary Report, 2011, University of
Maryland, College Park.
[131] Ibid.
[132] Arie Kruglanski in “Sri Lanka Defense Seminar 2012: Rehabilitation of Tamil Tigers,” YouTube video, posted by “Defence Sri
Lanka,”Aug. 10, 2012, accessed July 7, 2013, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-XDYL13a2M.
[133] Arie Kruglanski and Michelle Gelfand, Rehabilitation of Former LTTE Cadres in Sri Lanka: A Preliminary Report, 2011, University of
[134] Ibid.
[135] Positive ratings were also reported by former combatants, namely: positive perceptions reported of the rehabilitation center staff
(96.43% of beneficiaries), the rehabilitation center (70.14% of beneficiaries) and the rehabilitation center guards (94.57% of beneficiaries);
Malkanthi Hettiarachchi, “Sri Lanka’s Rehabilitation Program: A New Frontier in Counter Terrorism and Counter Insurgency,” PRISM:
Journal of the Center for Complex Operations 4, no. 2 (2013), 105 - 119;
Arie Kruglanski in “Sri Lanka Defense Seminar 2012: Rehabilitation of Tamil Tigers,” YouTube video, posted by “Defence Sri Lanka,”Aug. 10,
2012, accessed July 7, 2013, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-XDYL13a2M.
[136] Arie Kruglanski and Michelle Gelfand, Rehabilitation of Former LTTE Cadres in Sri Lanka: A Preliminary Report, 2011, University of
[137] “Executive Summary: Conference on Rehabilitation and Reintegration of Violent Extremist Offenders: Good Practices and Lessons
Learned 6-9 December 2011, The Hague,” International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT), The Hague.
[138] Angel Rabasa, Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Jeremy J. Ghez, and Christopher Boucek, (2010), “Deradicalising Islamist Extremists,” RAND
Corporation Monograph Series, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica.
[139] The Sri Lankan government has spent Rs. 2.5 billion (approximately USD 19.1 million) on the rehabilitation of former LTTE members
since May 2009 (as of December 2012); “A Group of Rehabilitated Ex-LTTE Cadres have been Recruited as Pre-school Teachers in the North
and East,” LLRCAction.gov.lk, Dec. 10, 2012, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.llrcaction.gov.lk/index.php/news/91-rehabilitation/139-
rehabilitated-ex-ltte-cadres-to-tech-at-pre-schools.
53 December 2013
[140] “Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Programme (APRP),” United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) website, accessed Oct.
30, 2013, http://www.undp.org/content/afghanistan/en/home/operations/projects/crisis_prevention_and_recovery/aprp/.
[141] Christopher Boucek, “Saudi Arabia’s “Soft” Counterterrorism Strategy: Prevention, Rehabilitation, and Aftercare,” Carnegie Paper 97,
2008, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C.
[143] “Sri Lanka: Former Tamil Tigers still Searching for Reconciliation,” The Guardian, June 2, 2012, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
www.theguardian.com/global-development/2012/jun/04/sri-lanka-tamil-tigers-reconciliation.
[144] S. Thillainathan, “Rehabilitation of Ex-LTTE Cadres, not Highlighted in Geneva,” Sunday Observer, March 17, 2013, accessed Oct. 30,
2013, http://www.sundayobserver.lk/2013/03/17/sec03.asp.
[145] “Wages: The Context and Issues,” Secretariat for Senior Ministers website, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.nhrep.gov.lk/index.php?
option=com_content&view=article&id=114&Itemid=59&lang=en.
[146] “Food Insecurity, Debt Rise in Sri Lanka’s North,” Jakarta Globe, Sept. 24, 2013, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
www.thejakartaglobe.com/international/food-insecurity-debt-rise-in-sri-lankas-north/.
[147] Ranil Wijayapala, “Livelihood Project Loans for Ex-Combatants,” Sunday Observer, Aug. 25, 2013, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
www.sundayobserver.lk/2013/08/25/sec01.asp.
[148] Deedee Derksen, “Impact or Illusion? Reintegration under the Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Program,” Peace Brief 106
(Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace (USIP), 2011).
and Political Violence (London: International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence (ICSR), 2012).
[150] Shehzad H. Qazi, “A War Without Bombs: Civil Society Initiatives Against Radicalisation in Pakistan,” Policy Brief 60, (Washington, D.
C.: Institute for Social and Policy Understanding (ISPU), 2013).
[151] “Three Years of Success in Post War Sri Lanka,” Ministry of Defence and Urban Development Sri Lanka website, May 24, 2012, accessed
Oct. 30, 2013,
http://www.defence.lk/new.asp?fname=three_years_of_success_in_post_war_20120523_05;
“Sri Lanka Vows to Resettle Tamils,” British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), May 29, 2009, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/
hi/south_asia/8061623.stm;
Rohan Gunaratna, “Conference Paper: Reconciliation after Terrorism: The Sri Lanka Experience,” D.B.S.Jeyaraj.com, accessed Oct. 30, 2013,
http://dbsjeyaraj.com/dbsj/archives/10144.
[152] Rohan Gunaratna, “Conference Paper: Reconciliation after Terrorism: The Sri Lanka Experience,” D.B.S.Jeyaraj.com, accessed Oct. 30,
2013, http://dbsjeyaraj.com/dbsj/archives/10144.
[153] Ajith Nivard Cabraal, “Role of the Business Community in Reconciliation,” National Conference on the Role of the Business Community
in Reconciliation Conference Report, Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute of International Relations and Strategic Studies (LKIIRSS), Colombo.
[154] “India Launches Housing Project in Sri Lanka’s Eastern Province,” Colombo Page, May 23, 2013, accessed July 7, 2013, http://
www.colombopage.com/archive_13A/May23_1369250695CH.php.
[155] Ajith Nivard Cabraal, “Role of the Business Community in Reconciliation,” National Conference on the Role of the Business Community
in Reconciliation Conference Report, Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute of International Relations and Strategic Studies (LKIIRSS), Colombo.
[156] Reconstruction of key transport infrastructure included road reconstruction in the North and East including the completion of the
Paranthan-Pooneryn Highway, A32 (Puttlam to Mannar), A35 (Paranthan to Mullaitivu), and reconstruction of 250 km of railroad
(Vavuniya-KKS, Madawachchiya-Madhu, Madu-Thailimannar, and Omanthei-Pallai). The Paranthan to Poonakari, Mankulam to Mullativu,
and Jaffna-KKS roads are under construction, and the Kandy-Jaffna A9 highway has commenced development from Galkulama to
Medawachchiya, from Vavuniya to Mankulam, and Nawatkuli to Mannar as at January 2012. The Kinniya Bridge, Trincomalee Bridge,
Mannar Bridge and causeway, Sangupidy Bridge, Navakkuli Bridge, and many smaller bridges have been completed. In June 2013, the
reconstruction of the Iranamadu Domestic Airport in Kilinochchi in the Northern Province of Sri Lanka was completed.
[157]Five major irrigation schemes and 115 minor irrigation schemes are being developed. Health services have been restored through the
construction of 164 health institutions in conflict-affected areas. A large number of small-scale sanitation constructions have been built,
including 14,539 latrines. In addition, 10,891 water wells have been cleaned.
[158]Through the Self-Help Groups (SHGs) program, 8,534 loans were disbursed amounting to Rs. 459 million in the Northern Province and
18,123 loans were disbursed amounting to Rs. 818 million in the Eastern Province between the years 2008 and 2011.
[159] The private sector organizations included Brandix Lanka, John Keells, Hayleys, Virtusa, Nestle, Lanka ORIX Finance, 99X Technology,
Academy of Design, and Mt. Lavinia Hotels.
[160] A large number of motor boats and nets have been distributed to the fishing community and several thousands of cattle, goats, and
poultry have been distributed to households in promotion of sustainable livelihood opportunities by the Ministry of Resettlement. The
Ministry also implements grassroots level participatory development programs, and has launched plans for the establishment of Millennium
Development Goals model villages in the North and East with the active participation of affected communities and other stakeholders.
54 December 2013
Economic zones and industrial parks have been established in the North and East, and the government has set-up vocational training centers
and technical colleges for skills development, including opportunities for youth to develop entrepreneurship skills. The “Northern Spring”
program is being implemented by the Ministry of Economic Development to develop the Northern Province with regard to infrastructure
development, agricultural and fisheries development, livelihood promotion, housing, and educational facilities and a Work Task Force under
the Ministry inspects and conducts the development projects. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) extended a loan of USD$ 154.4 million to
reconstruct 120 km of provincial roads as part of the Northern Road Connectivity Project in 2010.
[161] Interviews with two new Tamil female recruits from Kilinochchi and Mannar into the Sri Lankan Army (names withheld); Face-to-face
Interviews, “Enhancing Knowledge and Virtues” program conducted by the Office of the Director of Social Development Affairs to the
President, Presidential Secretariat, Colombo, Sri Lanka, January 11, 2013;
Brigadier Manoj Mudannayake, Chief Coordinator, Face-to-face Interview, “Enhancing Knowledge and Virtues” program conducted by the
Office of the Director of Social Development Affairs to the President, Presidential Secretariat, Colombo, Sri Lanka, January 11, 2013;
“Sri Lankan Army to Recruit 100 Tamil Girls,” Xinhua, Nov. 15, 2012, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/
2012-11/15/c_131977103.htm.
[162] Ibid.
[163] Ibid.
[164] Ibid.
[165]Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute of International Relations and Strategic Studies (LKIIRSS), Inaugural National Conference on
Reconciliation Conference Report, 2012, Colombo.
[166]“KP, Thamilini, Daya Master Apply for UPFA Nominations,” Daily Mirror, July 3, 2013, accessed July 7, 2013, http://www.dailymirror.lk/
news/31782-kp-thamilini-daya-master-apply-for-upfa-nominations.html.
[167]The implementation of the 13th Amendment to the Sri Lankan Constitution is contested in Sri Lanka as it was not adopted
constitutionally. Although the bill on the 13th Amendment to the Constitution was passed with 136 votes for and 11 votes against it in
Parliament in 1987, a referendum was not held to seek the people’s approval as per the then majority decision of the Supreme Court. It is
believed that the then Sri Lankan President J.R. Jayawardene adopted the 13th Amendment due to rising internal pressure (terrorism) and
external pressure (threat from India), and suppressed public opposition to the 13th Amendment prevailing at the time. On 8 July 2013, the
President of Sri Lanka, Mahinda Rajapaksa, communicated to the visiting Indian National Security Advisor, Shiv Shanker Menon that
devolving land and police powers to the provinces as provisioned by the 13th Amendment was problematic for a country small in size such as
Sri Lanka. It is believed that the central government of India continues to feel pressure from the southern state of Tamil Nadu to push Sri
Lanka to adopt the 13th Amendment. During a one-to-one meeting on the same day with the Indian National Security Advisor, Gotabhaya
Rajapaksa, Defence Secretary of Sri Lanka, stated unequivocally that the repeal of the devolution of police powers to the provinces under the
13th Amendment was “non-negotiable”. The Sri Lankan Secretary of Defence stated that devolution of police powers to the provinces will
undermine the national security of Sri Lanka and that it will thus not serve to alleviate (political) grievances faced by the Tamil minority
community in Sri Lanka. The Supreme Court of Sri Lanka decided unanimously on 26 September 2013 that land powers are vested in the
Central Government and not the Provincial Governments, according to the 13th Amendment to the Constitution;
“President Urges India to Pressure TNA to join PSC,” The Island, July 9, 2013, accessed Sept. 25, 2013, http://www.island.lk/index.php?
page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=83201;
“Not Devolving Police Powers under 13A Non-negotiable, Gota tells Menon,” The Island, July 13, 2013, accessed Sept. 25, 2013, http://
www.island.lk/index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=83532;
“Pressure Sri Lanka against Repealing 13th Amendment, Jayalalithaa Urges Centre,” The Hindu, July 14, 2013, accessed Sept. 25, 2013, http://
www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/pressure-sri-lanka-against-repealing-13th-amendment-jayalalithaa-urges-centre/
article4914818.ece;
“Video: SC Determines Land Powers with Centre,” Daily Mirror, Sept. 26, 2013, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.dailymirror.lk/news/
36086-sc-determines-land-powers-with-centre.html;
“Judgment on Land: Story Untold,” The Sunday Times, Sept. 29, 2013, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.sundaytimes.lk/130929/news/
judgment-on-land-story-untold-64191.html.
[168] “TNA Hasn’t Abandoned “Eelam” Ideology – Sri Lankan Minister,” Tamil Guardian, July 5, 2013, accessed July 7, 2013, http://
www.tamilguardian.com/article.asp?articleid=8238.
[169] S. Ferdinando, “Overseas Tigers Shaken by Debilitating Split,” The Island, March 13, 2011, accessed July 7, 2013, http://www.island.lk/
index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=20629;
L. Keerthisinghe, “TGTE’s Call for a UN Monitored Protection Mechanism in North and East,” Daily News, May 29, 2013, accessed July 7,
2013, http://www.dailynews.lk/2013/05/29/fea03.asp;
“TNA Hasn’t Abandoned “Eelam” Ideology – Sri Lankan Minister,” Tamil Guardian, July 5, 2013, accessed July 7, 2013, http://
www.tamilguardian.com/article.asp?articleid=8238;
“Expelled German NGO in Talks with TNA, TNPF, GTF,” The Island, July 2 2013, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.island.lk/index.php?
page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=82716.
[170] “UNHRC Member States Commend Progress in Sri Lanka's Reconciliation Process,” Colombo Page, Sept. 28, 2013, accessed Oct. 30,
2013, http://www.colombopage.com/archive_13B/Sep28_1380351664CH.php.
55 December 2013
[171]Rajiva Wijesinha, “Towards Reconciliation”, Special Report: Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting 2013 (London: First, 2013).
[173] Rajiva Wijesinha, “Towards Reconciliation”, Special Report: Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting 2013 (London: First, 2013).
[174] “Sri Lanka Police deploy thousands of Tamil speaking officers to the North and East,” Colombo Page, Dec. 5, 2013, accessed Dec. 9,
2013, http://www.colombopage.com/archive_13B/Dec05_1386227181JV.php.
[175] “Presidential Commission to Investigate Missing Persons,” The Island, Aug. 14, 2013, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.island.lk/
index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=85837;
“Commissioners Appointed to Investigate into Missing Persons,” Daily Mirror, Aug. 14, 2013, accessed Oct. 30, http://www.dailymirror.lk/
news/33824-commission-appointed-to-investigate-into-missing-persons.html.
[176] Ibid.
[177] “UNHRC Member States Commend Progress in Sri Lanka's Reconciliation Process,” Colombo Page, Sept. 28, 2013, accessed Oct. 30,
2013, http://www.colombopage.com/archive_13B/Sep28_1380351664CH.php.
[178] “‘Harmony Centres’ in Campuses to Resolve Student Issues,” The Sunday Times, Aug. 18, 2013, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
www.sundaytimes.lk/130818/news/harmony-centres-in-campuses-to-resolve-student-issues-58186.html.
[179]Dasun Edirisinghe, “No More New Ethnicity-based Schools,” The Island, July 7, 2013, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.island.lk/
index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=83070.
[180] “Sri Lanka Makes Public Draft Policy on Reconciliation,” China Daily, March 11, 2012, accessed July 7, 2013, http://
www.chinadaily.com.cn/xinhua/2012-03-11/content_5383572.html.
[181]“About Us”, Sri Lankan Reconciliation Youth Forum website, accessed July 7, 2013, http://reconciliationyouthforum.org/.
[182]The National Conferences on Reconciliation are conducted to engage the diverse sectors of society. The Kadirgamar Institute has
conducted seven National Conferences on Reconciliation thus far: Inaugural National Conference on Reconciliation (November 24, 2011),
National Conference on the Role of the Business Community in Reconciliation (January 24, 2012), National Conference on the Role of
Education in Reconciliation (March 13, 2012), National Conference on the Role of Women in Reconciliation (July 23, 2012), National
Conference on the Role of ICT in Reconciliation (September 18, 2012), the National Conference on the Role of Youth in Reconciliation
(January 2, 2013), and the National Conference on the Role of Arts and Culture in Reconciliation (May 16, 2013). Post-conference policy
papers with recommendations to the Government on how to facilitate different segments of society in reconciliation efforts have been
developed by the institute.
[183]Mark Taking the National Reconciliation Conference series outside of Colombo for the greater benefit and participation of the conflict-
affected community, the University Grants Commission (UGC) of Sri Lanka and the University of Jaffna organized the National Conference
on the Role of Higher Education in Reconciliation on June 13-14, 2013 in Jaffna, northern Sri Lanka, marking the university community’s
commitment to the national reconciliation process.
A “National Program Promoting Ethnic Harmony and Developing Leadership Skills of Students from Conflict-affected Areas in the North
and East and Difficult Areas in the South” (“Sisu Diriya National Program”) has been in operation since 2006, and is conducted by the Office
of the Director of Social Development Affairs to the President, Presidential Secretariat. The program is aimed at reducing post-traumatic
stress, reviving the education of children who have been displaced and whose education was disrupted by LTTE activities, developing
leadership skills of youth, and promoting interaction between ethnic groups to contribute to national interethnic and interreligious harmony.
The Office of the Director of Social Development Affairs to the President together with the University Grants Commission of Sri Lanka are
presently planning the establishment of Harmony Centers in all universities, schools, and districts to conduct activities in reconciliation.
An outstanding example of a non-state initiated reconciliation program in Sri Lanka are the dance performances undertaken by the Aru Sri
Art Theatre. This theatre, founded in 2004 by Mrs. Arunthathy Sri Ranganathan, promotes ethnic harmony through visual and performing
arts and has conducted numerous dances and multicultural concerts with this goal. These performances include the Oriental Music Orchestra
performance in Sri Lanka on March 6, 2012, in which 100 young musicians from all districts of Sri Lanka performed in unison. Aru Sri Art
Theatre also held a dance festival in Bintaan, Indonesia, on April 12-13, 2012 and in Singapore on April 14, 2012, where Sinhalese (Buddhist
and Christian) and Tamil (Hindu and Christian) dancers presented dances together under Hindu themes in performing two classical
Bharathanatya compositions and the Cosmic Dance of Shiva.
[184] John Horgan and Kurt Braddok (2010), “Rehabilitating the Terrorists?: Challenges in Assessing the Effectiveness of Deradicalisation
Programs”, Terrorism and Political Violence, 22: 267 - 291.
[187] Ibid.
and Political Violence, 2012, International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence (ICSR), London.
[189] Sunimal Fernando, Ten Year National Plan for a Trilingual Sri Lanka (2012 – 2021): Draft Plan 22nd June 2011, The Official Website of
the Data and Information Unit of the Presidential Secretariat, Sri Lanka, accessed Oct. 30, 2013,
56 December 2013
http://www.priu.gov.lk/news_update/Current_Affairs/Ten%20Year%20National%20Plan%20-%20English.pdf.
[191] Ibid.
[192] Iromi Dharmawardhane, ”Sri Lanka: The Role of Arts and Culture in Reconciliation”, Eurasia Review, April 23, 2012, accessed July 7,
2013, http://www.eurasiareview.com/23042012-sri-lanka-the-role-of-arts-and-culture-in-reconciliation-analysis/.
[193] “Sharma Welcomes SL Census,” Daily Mirror, Dec. 9, 2013, accessed Dec. 9, 2013, http://www.dailymirror.lk/news/39692-sharma-
welcomes-sl-census.html;
“Sri Lanka Informs Diplomatic Community of Current Developments in the Country”, Colombo Page, Dec. 9, 2013, accessed Dec. 9, 2013,
http://www.colombopage.com/archive_13B/Dec09_1386529712CH.php.
[194]For example, pro-LTTE groups such as “Boycott Sri Lanka” (http://www.boycottsrilanka.com/) work to discourage the purchase of
goods produced in Sri Lanka;
Tamil diaspora groups call for the boycott of Sri Lankan goods and services, for example the boycott of Sri Lankan Airlines in January 2008:
“Tamil Diaspora calls for Sri Lankan Boycott,” Tamil Guardian, Jan. 23, 2008, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.tamilguardian.com/
article.asp?articleid=1545.
[195] “The Concept and Beginning of the "Thamilcholai" School System,” Ministry of Defence and Urban Development Sri Lanka website, Dec.
12, 2012, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://www.defence.lk/new.asp?fname=20111205_03.
[196] T. Thavarajah, “LTTE Deception will be Exposed with EU Ban - Karuna Group,” The Island, May 30, 2006, accessed Oct. 30, 2013,
http://www.island.lk/2006/05/30/opinion2.html.
[197] “Miliband and London Tamil Protests of 2009 – WikiLeak,” IndyMedia.org, last updated Dec. 10, 2010, accessed Oct. 30, 2013, http://
www.indymedia.org.uk/en/2010/12/469470.html;
Julian Borger, “Wikileaks Cables: David Miliband Focused on Sri Lankan War 'to Win Votes',” The Guardian, Dec. 1, 2010, accessed Oct. 30,
2013, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/01/wikileaks-david-miliband-sri-lanka.
57 December 2013
Salafi Violence and Sufi Tolerance? Rethinking Conventional

Wisdom
by Mark Woodward, Muhammad Sani Umar, Inayah Rohmaniyah, and Mariani Yahya
Abstract
It is often assumed that there is a strong correlation, if not a causal relationship between varieties
of Muslim thought and violent tendencies. Salafism is often associated with intolerance and
violence and Sufism with tolerance and nonviolence. In this article we demonstrate that these
assumptions are baseless. Based on analysis of historical and contemporary cases from Southeast
Asia and West Africa, we show that there is no significant correlation between theology and
violent tendencies. Some violent groups are Sufi and others Salafi, while some non-violent groups
are Salafi, others Sufi. Policy makers are therefore ill-advised to use theological orientation as a
factor in assessing the violent potential of Muslim movements and organisations.
Keywords: Sufism, Salafism, violence, West Africa, Southeast Asia
Introduction
In policy oriented and (to a lesser extent) academic literature on political Islam there is a
pervasive assumption that Salafism, especially its Wahhabi variant, is tied to violent extremism
and that Sufism (Muslim mysticism) is inherently tolerant and peaceful. These assumptions are
virtually axiomatic and rarely subject to serious scrutiny. The academic literature on Sufism
tends to focus on classical texts by Rabi’a al-Adawiyya (713-801), Muhyi’l-Din ibn’l-Arabi
(1165-1240), Jalaluddin al-Rumi (1207-1273) and other gnostic Sufis whose major themes
were the love of God, the quest for union with the divine and the equivalence of all religions.
[1] This orientation is mirrored in the anthropological literature that champions popular
Sufism for acceptance of local cultures and the role of peaceful Sufi syechs and merchants in
the spread of Islam.[2] Carl Ernst observes that there has been a tendency for western scholars
to view Sufism as a peaceful alternative to an inherently violent orthodox Islam since the early
nineteenth century.[3] Salafis are typically depicted as exclusivist, intolerant of local cultures
and other religions and, particularly in the post-9/11 literature, as being the embodiment of
inherently violent Islam, and are associated with “conversion by the sword.” [4] Ibn Saud’s 18th
century wars of conquest and Rumi’s 13th century verses about churches, mosques and
synagogues as houses of God have become archetypes in contemporary Western discourse
about Salafis and Sufis.
These views are perhaps most clearly articulated in the writings of Ed Husain and Stephen
Schwartz and others located on the cusp of scholarship and advocacy journalism. Even though
they are highly polemical, their works are important because they are more widely read, and
58 December 2013
arguably have greater influence on the policy community, than those of more objective
academic authors.
Schwartz has written that: “Sufis seek mutual civility, interaction, a cooperation between every
human being.” He describes Muhammad Ibn Abd al-Wahhab (1703-1792), the founder of the
Salafi sect that carries his name, as “a simpleton from the wilderness,” whose teachings
inspired: “Al-Qaida on September 11, 2001, as well as in Iraq and everywhere else the terrorist
conspiracy sheds blood.” He characterizes al-Wahhab’s principal theological work, Kitab
Tawhid (The Book of the Unity of God), as: “a handbook for the interrogation and punishment
of ‘thoughtcrime.’” [5]
Husain states that: “Almost all Salafis believe and constantly remind each other of the need to
be loyal only to Muslims, and to hate, be suspicious of, not work in alliance with, and ensure
only minimal/necessary interaction with non-Muslims. This attitude is underpinned by the
Salafi creedal belief in al-wala wa al-bara, broadly translated as fidelity to Muslims and hatred
for non-Muslims.” [6] Madawi al-Rasheed [7] and Quintan Wiktorowicz [8] are more nuanced
but retain the view that Salafism is inherently intolerant, makes pervasive use of demonisation
and other forms of symbolic violence, and the ideology if not practice of jihad. Wiktorowicz,
for example, distinguishes between reformist and jihadi Salafis but maintains that reformist
refrain from violence only because the Muslim community is not yet ready for jihad.
In this article we make two basic points about the violent Salafi/peaceful Sufi dichotomy: 1. It
is factually incorrect. 2. Theological orientation cannot be used as a predictor of either violent
or nonviolent behaviour. Broadly defined theological orientations including Salafism and
Sufism are not prime movers or causal factors leading to either acceptance or rejection of
violence against religious others as a political strategy. They can, however, be used to
legitimate a priori dispositions towards both. In the case of violent movements many
theologies become tools for the demonisation of designated enemy others. The very same
theologies can be used to promote tolerance, and even acceptance of religious diversity.
The analysis presented here relies on ethnographic, historical and survey data and methods for
modeling Muslim social movements developed at the Centre for the Study of Religion and
Conflict at Arizona State University based on objective criteria that do not reference the
theological issues central to debates between Salafis and Sufis.[9] We draw on examples of
violent and nonviolent Sufi and Salafi movements in Southeast Asia and West Africa we have
observed since 2008 and on historical cases from both regions dating to the 17th century.
These regions are significant because they are home to some of the world’s largest Muslim
populations, and strategically important because of concerted efforts by the Saudi state, Saudi-
sponsored non-governmental organisations and private donors to spread Salafi teachings.
Violence is taken as a dependent variable and we made no a priori assumptions concerning
independent variables. In this paper we report on negative findings. Theological factors,
including the difference between Sufism and Salafism are not associated with violence or non-
violence. Our findings parallel those of the US government sponsored Political Instability
59 December 2013
Taskforce, according to which religious differences are not statistically significant factors in
models forecasting internal conflicts such as civil wars and rebellions.[10]
Our analysis is based on ethnographic fieldwork conducted in both regions and is framed by
works of other scholars concerned with the history of Islam in these areas and the Middle
East. Comparative ethnographic research was guided by cross-regional consultation and the
use of common research protocols. In this paper we examine ways in which Muslims of both
theological orientations alternatively reject and embrace violence relying on a combination of
ethnographic and historical data.
Salafism and Sufism in Islamic Thought and History

The distinction between Salafism and Sufism is one of the most basic in Sunni Islam. Both
affirm the Quranic teaching of the Unity of God (monotheism) and take for granted the view
that Islam is submission to God. They understand these teachings very differently. Salafism is
behaviourally oriented. For Salafis, Islam is primarily the performance of rituals defined by
Shari’ah as obligatory or recommended, and the regulation of social behaviour. Many, though
not all, Sufis share these concerns but are also concerned with cultivation of spiritual states
and the development of an experiential relationship with God. Many, though not all, Sufis
approach God through the intercession of religious leaders and saints. Salafis maintain that
nothing should stand between people and God. These differences are rarely reconcilable. Both
Sufism and Salafism are diverse traditions with deep roots in Islamic scripture and history.[11]
Varieties of Sufism
Sufism is what Anne Marie Schimmel called “the mystical dimension of Islam.” [12] It is
grounded in individual experience of, and self-identification with, God. The Sufi quest is often
described as a journey (sair illallah) beginning with withdrawal from the world and reflection
on religious and social truths. Reflection leads to meditation (muraqaba) cultivating such
virtues as repentance, morality, and trust in God. When the cultivation of one virtue is
complete, the traveller receives signs urging her/him to move on to another. The final
destination is the state of al-fana (annihilation): overcoming the ego, erasing will and volition
and emptying the self so that it can be filled with God’s vision, love and will. This leads to bliss,
a sense of being one with God and the cosmos, appreciation of the meanings of life and Islam,
heightened ethical consciousness and patterns of social relations rooted in it. Sufism can
assume a myriad of ethical, philosophical and institutional forms.
Ethical Sufism is based on the concept of ihsan (goodness). Husn, the root from which ihsan
is derived, refers to positive qualities in general. God is al-Muhsin, the doer of Ihsan. The
Qur’an also connects ihsan to everything praiseworthy, including sincerity, trust in God,
worship, love and good deeds.[13] Ethical Sufism dates to the first centuries of the Islamic era.
It began as a moral protest against political triumphalism, rigid legalism and ritualistic piety in
60 December 2013
the early periods of Islamic history. Its most basic themes are renunciation of individual will
and everything other than God. It took several distinctive forms. Hasan al-Basri (642-728)
stressed abandoning concern with the material world; Rabi’a al-Adawiyya (713-801) is
renowned for her all-consuming love of God and efforts to aid the poor despite her own
poverty; Al-Harith ibn Asad Al-Muhasabi (781-857), developed strategies for introspection
and the cultivation of virtue. Abu Hamid al-Ghazali wove these themes together in his
Alchemy of Happiness, considered by many to be the classical formulation of ethical Sufism.
[14] An overarching theme is that love of God should come before desire of worldly and
otherworldly rewards.
Ethical Sufism is basically apolitical, though it often leads to protests against manifest injustice.
The writings of the early Ethical Sufis, especially those of al-Ghazali are read and admired
throughout the Muslim world. Even Wahhabis who are unrelenting in their opposition to
philosophical and institutional Sufism, are drawn to these ethical teachings.[15]
Philosophical Sufism focuses on attaining insight into spiritual meanings of Islam, the
metaphysical foundations of existence and relationships between creator and created. It
teaches that there is only one reality of which everything else is an expression. This Absolute
Being is often called al-Haqq (The Truth). It is undivided, eternal, and unknowable by
ordinary means. It manifests itself in creation through which it is known; hence it is manifest
in and hidden from creation. The Sufi journey leads to realisation of this truth.
Sufi thinkers express their insights into these questions in quite different ways. Four of the
most influential are Muhyi’l-Din ibn al-Arabi (1165-1240), known for his complex, esoteric
formulations of Sufi teachings; Jalaluddin al-Rumi (1207-1273), widely acknowledged as the
greatest of the Sufi poets; Khawaja Muhammad Hafez-e Shirazi (1325-1390), a Persian poet
whose works are widely know throughout Asia as well as his native Iran; and Mansur al-Hallaj
(858-922), known for bold, seemingly heretical statements concerning relationships between
humanity and divinity and disregard for rituals including the five daily prayers required by the
Shari’ah. While they differ in detail, these Sufi luminaries share a unitarian conception of
reality and the view that the mystical path culminates in union with the divine.[16]
Ibn al-Arabi wrote at least four hundred books in which he formulated complex mystical-
doctrinal systems. He claimed they were divinely inspired and Prophet Muhammad had
dictated some of them to him. Ibn al-Arabi’s most basic contribution to Sufism was the
doctrine of wahdat al-wujud (Unity of Being). According to Ibn al-Arabi, creation is the self-
manifestation of the Truth, and the cosmos is a mirror image of the Creator. Divinity and
humanity are only superficially distinct. The divine is the inward aspect, while the human
form is the outward aspect of the Truth. Humans are microcosms of the whole of creation. An
individual attaining the highest level of mystical consciousness becomes al-insan al-kamil, the
Perfect Human and the fullest manifestation of Divine Reality. One of the implications of
wahdat al-wujud is that ultimately nothing is real except the Divine. This is a Philosophical
Sufi interpretation of tauhid.[17]
61 December 2013
While Ibn al-Arabi relied on scholastic logic, Rumi relied on poetic and narrative forms and
appealed to emotion. Rumi combined the doctrine of the unity of being with an emphasis on
divine love that unites the created with creator, often referred to as lover and beloved. For
Rumi, duality and division are illusions. It follows that sectarian differences, even those
between Muslims and “unbelievers” are at once illusionary and an unfolding of Divine Truth.
Hence his statement that the person of God is “beyond infidelity and religion.” [18] Rumi also
describes those traversing the mystical path as being without religion or ethnicity, in a shared
quest for, and love of the One. Rumi’s popularity in Europe and North America is among the
factors contributing to the belief that Sufism is inherently peaceful and tolerant.
Ibn al-Arabi, Rumi and most other philosophical Sufis offered only muted critiques of
orthodox piety. Al-Hallaj, on the other hand, offered vocal, public critiques of outward piety.
Like other Sufis, he distinguished between the outward form (zahir) of Islam associated with
the Shar’iah and the internal essence (batin), associated with Sufism. His lack of concern with
externality led him to flagrant violation of Shar’iah to make the point that true piety is more
than ritualistic compliance with Shar’iah. He is also famous for verbal outbursts contradicting
basic Islamic tenets such as: “I am the Truth” for which he was executed, or martyred,
depending on one’s point of view. While most Muslim religious authorities hold such views to
be scandalous, they are nonetheless an enduring element of philosophical Sufi discourse and
of popular Sufism, especially in South and Southeast Asia [19] Works by Rumi and Ibn al-
Arabi are part of the curriculum in many Islamic schools in Southeast Asia and West Africa.
They are also discussed in public religious talks, especially during the fasting month of
Ramadan.
Institutional Sufism emerged gradually. Its origins are obscure and complex. By the 12th
century it took the form of hierarchically organised religious orders known as tariqa.[20] Each
has a particular formulation of the mystical path and set of devotional practices adopted from
ethical and philosophical Sufism. Other beliefs and practices are rooted in local cultures. Some
of these religious orders remained local, while others spread throughout the Muslim world.
They were also among vehicles through which Islam spread in Africa and Asia.[21] Today Sufi
religious orders continue to play important roles in Muslim life nearly everywhere even in
countries where they have been outlawed and forced underground by Salafi (Saudi Arabia) or
secular (Turkey) governments. There are also increasingly globalized Sufi networks that rely
on the Internet to telescope relationships between local devotees and their globally oriented
leaders.
Saint veneration is an important component of institutional Sufism and popular Islam nearly
everywhere. People believed to have journeyed far on the mystical path are revered as saints
(friends of God). Saints are thought to have mystical or magical powers and the ability to
bestow blessing (barakah) and healing and to help their devotees with the problems of daily
life. The quest for barakah also motivates pilgrimage to the graves of saints (ziyarah), one of
the most popular forms of Sufi piety in West Africa, Southeast Asia and elsewhere in the
Muslim world. Others visit graves simply to show respect to the holy woman or man.[22]
62 December 2013
Differences concerning the propriety of saint veneration are among the most contentious
issues in contemporary conflicts between Sufis and Salafis. In Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Mali,
Malaysia and Indonesia Salafis have earned the undying enmity of Sufis for destroying holy
graves. The emotional intensity of these conflicts cannot be overstated.
From the 13th century until the rise of Salafi movements in the 19th century Sufism permeated
Muslim discourse. Institutional Sufism was particularly influential. [23] In West Africa and
Southeast Asia Sufis still constitute substantial majorities of the Muslim populations. In
Indonesia, for example, a survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Religion and
Conflict at Arizona State University in 2013 indicated that 77.5% of Muslims regard the core
Sufi devotional practice of visiting graves to be essential or desirable, while only 2.1%
responded that it is essential not to do. In Nigeria a survey conducted in 2011 showed 78.3%
of Muslims regard visiting graves as essential or desirable while 15.4% responded that it is
essential not to do.
In societies in which the validity of mystical insight is widely accepted, those who possess it
easily acquire enormous moral authority and social influence that can easily be translated into
political authority. Many historical and contemporary rulers have sought moral authority
through the patronage of Sufi orders; some go to the extreme of depicting themselves as saints.
[24] In Southeast Asia and West Africa Sufi sultanates that have limited (Yogyakarta,
Indonesia) or no (Sokoto, Nigeria) formal authority continue to exercise enormous moral
authority and political influence. Sufi moral authority has also been used for grassroots social
mobilization, including the instigation of rebellions and insurgencies.[25] The most recent
example is an invasion of the Malaysian state of Sabah by claimants to the throne of the Sulu
Sultanate in the Southern Philippines.
Varieties of Salafism
Salafism is a conservative, behaviourally oriented form of Islam. Wahhabism is a variety of
Salafism founded in Arabia in the 18th century, and is the official religion of Saudi Arabia
today.[26] Linguistically, Salafi is an abbreviation of al-salaf al-salih (the pious ancestors).
Salafism seeks to preserve or re-establish visions of Islam believed to have been practiced by
the Prophet Muhammad and his companions. It focuses primarily on “correct” religious and
social behaviour. Salafis focus on Sunnah (the practice of the Prophet Muhammad as recorded
in Hadith), as a model for subsequent generations of Muslims. Anything other than this is
considered religiously reprehensible innovation (bida). Non-salafi Muslims also value Sunnah
but distinguish between commendable and reprehensible innovation. Salafis have little use for
the Sufi cultivation of intuitive knowledge of God.
Salafism has been a persistent strand in Muslim discourse since the 9th century. It has taken
many forms, and debates about who are the true Salafis are bitterly contested. Three related
concepts—scriptural literalism, scriptural theology, and a revivalist ethos—are central to all
forms of Salafism. Salafis regard scripture as God’s clear commands that require
63 December 2013
implementation. Other Muslims regard scripture as communication from God that must be
studied and understood prior to implementation. Many Salafis condemn Sufism and local
cultural practices as unbelief that negates Islamic identity. This practice, known as takfir is
among the doctrinal roots of Salafi radicalism.
There are other beliefs and practices on which Salafis differ. The most politically salient
difference is that between pacifists who emphasize personal, social and ritual purity in their
own communities, and activists who seek to impose their views on others. Activist strategies
include preaching, the use of print, broadcast and electronic media as tools for proselytization,
participation in electoral politics and violent jihad, among others.
Most variants of Salafism can be traced to the teachings of the 8th-9th century jurist Ahmad
Ibn Hanbal (780-855). Subsequent Salafi luminaries, whose works remain influential, include
the 13th-14th century Hanbalite jurist Ibn Tamiyyah (1263-1328) and Muhammad b. Abd al-
Wahhab (1703-1792) the founder of the Wahhabi sect. There are many others who are not as
well known.
Ibn Hanbal maintained that only the Qur’an and Hadith are legitimate sources of law and
theology. He rejected Aristotelian logic that began to influence Muslim thought in the 8th
century and metaphorical readings of scripture. He was particularly concerned with
maintaining the “purity” of ritual practice and religious belief. He regarded post 7th century
developments to be unacceptable bida.[27]
Ibn Tamiyyah was the systematiser of Salafi thought. He reaffirmed Ibn Hanbal’s scriptural
conservatism and introduced an uncompromising literalist interpretation of tauhid. He taught
that worship and devotion should be directed to God without any intermediary. For Ibn
Tamiyyah, seeking the blessings of angles, saints and righteous people, and pilgrimage to
tombs of saints is polytheism (shirk). This is the gravest sin in Islam, which if not recanted,
leads to eternal damnation and can be punished by execution. This position rapidly became
one of the defining features of Salafism. It is extremely controversial and brings Salafis into
conflict with most other Muslims, for whom these practices are central elements of Muslim
piety.[28]
Early Salafi thought was not inherently political, but became so because it challenged the
established orthodoxy tied to institutional Sufism. Ibn Hanbal avoided the sectarian
controversies that divided the Muslim community of his day. The contentious nature of these
debates had made heresy a grave concern in intellectual circles and the community at large
and hence to the political leadership that valued stability. Ibn Taymiyyah, on the other hand,
was known for heated polemics that led to conflict with religious and political authorities. He
was jailed for his polemical teachings five times and died in prison.
Ibn Abd al-Wahhab was the first Salafi scholar to have the opportunity to establish his
theological views as socio-political reality. He was born into a family of Hanbalite jurists in
Najd, a remote region in Eastern Arabia. He studied with leading Hanbali scholars in Syria,
64 December 2013
Iraq and Iran as well as in Mecca and Medina. He returned to Najd in 1750 and began
preaching against customs and religious practices he considered to be shirk. His major
contribution to Salafi thought was Kitab al-Tawhid, in which he summarized Ibn Taymiyyah's
understanding of shirk. He distinguished between greater and lesser shirk. Both lead to eternal
damnation but only greater shirk is punishable (by death) in this world. Greater shirk includes
the use of amulets, traditional healing practices and saint veneration. Lesser shirk is belief in
causality other than that of God and public displays of religious piety including the collective
devotional practices of Sufi orders.[29]
Initially Ibn Abd al-Wahhab failed to convince the people of Najd to accept Salafism. He then
contracted an alliance Muhammad Ibn Saud (d. 1765) the Emir of Dar'iyyah in northeastern
Arabia. The alliance stipulated that Ibn Saud would support Ibn Abd al-Wahhab’s religious
program in return for his endorsement of Ibn Saud’s political agenda. Saudi conquests of most
of Arabia led to the establishment of a Wahhabi theocracy in which the coercive power of the
state is used to enforce Salafi norms.[30] It is important to note that many Saudi-Wahhabi
social norms, especially restrictions on women’s public roles, are rooted in Najd Bedouin
culture as much as in Islamic scripture, if not more so.
Like Sufism, Salafism is not inherently political. Salafi moral authority flows from the claim
that it seeks to restore Islam to its pristine condition. If this claim is accepted, Salafism
becomes a powerful basis for social mobilization against grievances including colonialism,
corruption, economic inequality, political disenfranchisement and other forms of injustice.
The oil boom of the 1970s and 1980s enabled the Saudi government and foundations backed
by the royal family including the Muslim World League (Rabita al-Alam al-Islami/MWL) to
devote enormous financial resources to attempts to spread Salafism.[31] The League has
played a crucial role in promoting Salafism in Southeast Asia and West Africa. MWL provides
scholarships for students to study at Saudi Arabian Islamic Universities and supports schools
and mosques that graduates establish when they return home.[32]
Religious Orientations and Violence: Southeast Asian and West African Cases
Wahhabism and Salafism have been associated with violence and terrorism because Al Qaeda
and related terrorist organisations embrace the synthesis of Wahhabi religious teachings and
Muslim Brotherhood activism formulated by Sayid Qutb.[33] There are Southeast Asian and
West African Salafi groups that share this orientation and others that steadfastly oppose
violence. There are also violent and nonviolent organisations rooted in Sufi teachings in both
regions. There are also groups of both religious orientations that have alternated between
participating in, and opposing, violence in shifting political contexts. There is also a tendency
for Salafis to seek accommodation with other Muslims on social and religious issues that do
not compromise their understanding of tauhid. There are Salafi movements in West Africa
and Southeast Asia that originally engaged in harsh takfir that now view their Sufi opponents
65 December 2013
as Muslims of a different type with whom they share common social and sometimes political
agendas. This is what Woodward (et al) have described as the “domestication” of Salafism.[34]
Salafism in West Africa and Southeast Asia

The origins of Salafism in West Africa and Southeast Asia are complex and predate the growth
of Saudi influence by nearly three centuries. Ulama (Muslim religious scholars) from both
regions participated in the 17th/18th century revivalist Ahli Hadith (traditions concerning the
speech and actions of the Prophet Muhammad) movement that also contributed the
development of Salafism in Arabia, North Africa and South Asia. Sufis concerned with
reconciling Hadith based piety and mystical practice and traditional legal scholars also
participated in this movement.[35] Mecca and Medina were the centre points of the network,
but it was not an Arab movement. During this period, the Holy cities were extremely
cosmopolitan. Knowledge, not ethnicity was the criteria for entry into the Islamic religious
elite. Ulama with diverse theological views taught at the Great Mosque in Mecca, the Prophet’s
mosque in Medina and in private academies surrounding them. Students came from
throughout the Muslim world. Most eventually returned home, though some of the most
erudite settled permanently in the holy cities. The intellectual networks and lineages of the day
were also complex and transcended conventional theological boundaries.[36]
This circle contributed to the development of Salafism and exerted an equally strong influence
on the development of Shar’iah centric Sufism. Ibrahim al-Kurani (1616-1690) was among the
most renowned 17th century Ahli Hadith scholars. He was known for mastery of Hadith and
his exposition of Ibn al-Arabi’s Philosophical Sufism. He was the founder of Salafi and Sufi
lineages that are influential in Southeast Asia and West Africa to this day.[37] The West
African lineages gravitated toward Salafism and those in Southeast Asia towards Shari’ah
centric Sufism.
Salih al-Fulani (1753-1803), from present day Guinea, was one of the leading figures in the
Ahli Hadith movement at the end of the 18th century He was a contemporary of Muhammad
ibn Abd al-Wahhab, though the nature of their relationship is not known. West African
scholars from this lineage including Abd al-Rahman al-Ifriqi, (1908-1957) and Umar al-Falata
(1925-1999) figured significantly in the Saudi religious establishment in the 20th century.[38]
Southeast Asian ulama were prominent in Sufi orders and Shafite legal scholarship in Mecca
and Medina throughout 19th and early 20th centuries.[39] Most returned to their native lands
after the Saudi conquest of the holy cities in 1926. Organised Salafi movements first developed
in Southeast Asia in the mid-19th century and in West Africa a century later. In both regions
these movements focused on local concerns as well as on the trans-regional Salafi issues of
theological and ritual purity.
66 December 2013
West African Cases

Subbanu al-Muslimin (Muslim Youth) was the first West African Salafi movement. It was
founded in Mali in 1951 by graduates of Cairo’s al-Azhar University who had been exposed to
Saudi Wahhabism while on the hajj. It was structured as a modern civic organisation,
combined religious and nationalist agendas and became a model for later West African Salafi
movements. It established modern Islamic schools as alternative to colonial schools that
stressed secularism and French culture. It strongly opposed Sufi orders and religious and
social practices rooted in Sufism and African cultures, including saint veneration and
traditional healing practices.
Subbanu al-Muslimin has been most successful in urban areas. It is a middle class movement,
appealing primarily to modern elites and merchants. Salafi movements have also resonated
with the urban middle class in Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana and Niger.[40] Subbanu al-
Muslimin’s anti-Sufi rhetoric has sometimes led to violent confrontations with supporters of
Sufi orders, who remain the majority in West African Muslim societies. By the 1990s the
frequency and intensity of these clashes had diminished as the ethos of confrontation gave way
to one of what Kaba terms “the new ethic of disagreement” in which Sufis and Salafis
understand each other, not as kafir, but as different kinds of Muslims.[41] There have been
similar developments throughout West Africa.
Jama’atu Izalat al-Bid’a wa Iqamat al-Sunna (the group removing bida and restoring the
Sunna/ Izala) is the largest and most influential Salafi movement in West Africa.[42] It was
founded in Jos, Nigeria in 1978 and has branches in neighboring countries. Like other West
African Salafi movements Izala sponsors modern Islamic schools, opposes Sufism and
traditional cultural practices, and often engages in harsh takfiri rhetoric.
Izala also has features reflecting its north Nigerian origins. For example, its organisational
structure and performative style reflect the political culture of the military regimes that ruled
Nigeria for extended periods (1969-1979, 1984-1999). Izala is hierarchically organised with a
centralized top-down leadership. It also has a security force whose members wear military-
style uniforms. They serve as guards and escorts for Izala officials to whom they give military
style salutes at public events.
Izala was founded by al-Shaykh Abubakar Mahmud Gumi (1922-1992). He was educated in
traditional Islamic schools in Nigeria and developed his Salafi ideas independently in the
1940s. He was especially concerned with bida and the purification of ritual practice. He
studied in the Sudan during the 1950s and became closely associated with the Saudi Wahhabi
establishment in the 1950s-1960s. He was Grand Kadi (judge) of Northern Nigeria
(1962-1976). He was also a founding member of WML and was instrumental in securing
scholarships for Nigerian students to study in Saudi Arabian Islamic universities. Gumi made
effective use of modern mass media, especially radio and newspapers to spread Salafi ideas,
67 December 2013
most notably vehement takfiri denunciation of Sufi orders. A Sufi backlash in the mid-1970s
led Gumi’s followers to establish Izala as a formal organisation.
Like many Salafi movements Izala is prone to factionalism. Some splinter groups moderated
their views and sought accommodation with traditionalist Muslims in the same way that
Subbanu al-Muslimin did. Others became even more militant. There have been occasional
violent confrontations between Salafi and Sufi groups throughout West Africa. Boko Haram is
the only Salafi organisation to employ violence as a strategy for spreading Salafi teachings and
practices; it also challenges the legitimacy of the state. It is a breakaway Izala faction
established in 2001. Its goal is to implement Izala discourse of takfīr by waging violent
campaigns against opponents.[43] It espouses a radical anti-western and anti-modern
ideology that defines modern western education and government employment as religiously
unacceptable. Since 2003 more than 3,000 people have been killed in confrontations between
Boko Haram fighters and Nigerian security forces and in incidents of sectarian violence. It is
important to note that other groups based on similar teachings chose to isolate themselves
from what they perceive to be a corrupt society. Significantly other Izala factions strongly
oppose Boko Haram violence.
Southeast Asian Cases

Exactly when Salafism came to Southeast Asia is debatable. Colonial scholars attributed the
Padri War in West Sumatra (1803-1837) to Wahhabi influences, but recent scholarship
suggests that the insurgents were Sufis who supported Shari’ah and opposed local social
practices not in keeping with it.[44] The Kaum Muda (New Group), a broadly based Salafi
movement, emerged in the late 19th century. It was active throughout Southeast Asia and
stressed nationalism, modern education and ritual purity. Tension between puritans and
modernists is an enduring theme and source of factionalism.[45] Organisations combined
these themes in distinctive ways. The two most influential are Muhammadiyah and Persatuan
Islam.
Ahmad Dahlan founded Muhammadiyah in 1912 in Yogyakarta in what is now Indonesia. It is

the largest Southeast Asian Salafi movement with approximately forty million members and
branches throughout the region. Muhammadiyah combines Salafi religious teachings with
commitments to rationalism and modernity. Ibn Tamiyya, Ibn Abd al-Wahhab and the
Egyptian modernist Muhammad Abduh [46] are often mentioned as progenitors. Since the
1920s Muhammadiyah’s critiques of Sufism and traditional cultural practices have described
them as being bida and irrational. Textbooks used in Muhammadiyah schools refrain from
takfiri rhetoric and extol the virtues of pluralism, nationalism and democracy. It is more
accepting of local culture than many other Salafi movements and maintains close relations
with the Sufi oriented Yogyakarta Sultanate. Muhammadiyah avoids direct involvement in
politics and opposes violence. It has included revivalist and modernist factions since the
1920s.
68 December 2013
Persatuan Islam (Persis/Unity of Islam) founded in the 1920s by Indonesian and Singaporean
scholars. It is not a mass organisation but has exerted great influence on Southeast Asian Salafi
thought.[47] Persis takes very strong positions opposing bida, Sufism and local cultures, and
engages in harsh takfiri rhetoric. While some early Persis leaders were Pan Islamists who
considered the idea of the state to be un-Islamic, others—especially Mohammed Natsir
(1908-1993)—were proponents of Shari’ah based nationalism. Activists from Persis
backgrounds have adapted a range of political strategies, ranging from electoral politics to
terrorism.
Natsir was perhaps the most important Southeast Asian Salafi intellectual of the twentieth
century. He maintained relationships with Islamic nationalists, including non-Salafis,
regionally and globally. Politically he was a pragmatist. He was Prime Minister of Indonesia
(1950-51) and leader of the Islamic political party Majelis Syuro Muslim Indonesia (Masyumi)
from 1945 until it was outlawed in 1960. He was imprisoned between 1960 and 1966 for
involvement in an ethno-religious rebellion. After his release he founded Dewan Dakwah
Islamiyah Indonesia (Indonesian Council for the Propagation of Islam/DDII).[48]
Like his Nigerian counterpart Gumi, Natsir was a prominent figure in MWL. DDII is a
conduit through which MWL funds flow into Indonesia. It works closely with Lembaga
Pengetahuan Islam dan Arab (Institute for Islamic and Arabic Studies/LIPIA), which is a
public diplomacy arm of the Saudi Arabian government as well as an Islamic school, and
Imam Muhammad ibn Saud Islamic University in Riyadh.[49] Efforts by Natsir and DDII
contributed to the emergence of Salafi organisations and movements with diverse political
orientations. Of these the campus based Tarbiyah (Islamic Education) movement that
developed in the 1980s is particularly significant. It is a broadly based social movement that
gave rise to numerous organisations including the non-violent Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (PKS,
The Justice and Prosperity Party) that participates in elections and Hizbut Tahir Indonesia that
does not.[50] DDII has never been implicated in violence but was associated with violent
groups operating in Eastern Indonesia between 2000 and 2002, and now support groups
engaging in attacks against members of the Ahmadiyah sect.
Pondok Pesantren Imam Bukhari (PPIB) in Surakarta is one of many Salafi schools supported
by MWL. It was founded by Ahmad Faiz after he completed his studies at Imam Ibn Saud
University in 1994. The curriculum focuses on Wahhabi religious teachings and preparing
students for the afterlife. There are approximately two thousand students. Most are
Indonesians; others are from Malaysia and Singapore. Faiz rejects terrorism and other forms
of religiously motivated violence and in an interview stated that: “Terrorists use Islamic norms
to justify their sins.”
As in West Africa, some Southeast Asian Salafi communities live in self-imposed social
isolation. Some were formerly jihadi but renounced violence when Saudi ulama declared that
it was no longer justified. They lead pious lives and avoid contact with what they consider to
be a hopelessly defiled world. Some have established villages in remote areas and support
69 December 2013
themselves by selling herbal medicines. There are small communities with similar religious
orientations in Malaysia and Singapore. They are more integrated into economic life than their
Indonesian counterparts, but avoid contact with religious others. In some parts of Malaysia,
Salafis have a larger public presence and control as many as a third of the mosques.
Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) is the most significant violent Salafi organisation in Southeast Asia. It is
a transnational terrorist group established in 1993 with the goal of establishing a Wahhabi
Caliphate that has operated in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore.[51] Many
JI members studied at schools supported by DDII. They acquired violent Salafi ideologies at
schools linked to the “Nguruki network” of schools that combine Salafi and Jihadi teachings.
Abu Bakr Ba’asyir (b. 1938) is widely regarded as JI’s spiritual mentor and was one of the
founders of the Nguruki network. He is a former DDII activist who spent 17 years in Malaysia
and Singapore spreading violent Salafi teachings. Ba’asyir was also one of the founders of
Majelis Mujahedeen Indonesia, an umbrella group for radical organisations. Prior to being
convicted on terrorism charges in 2011, he used extreme takfiri rhetoric in sermons, stating
that 90% of Indonesian Muslims are actually kafir. In an interview he stated that “Jihad is
more important than prayer.”[52]
Sufism in West Africa and Southeast Asia

Sufism has been the dominant form of Islam in West Africa and Southeast Asia for many
centuries. The traders who brought Islam to Africa and Asia, and the warriors who established
kingdoms, empires and Caliphates were Sufis. Varied and complex combinations of Ethical,
Philosophical and Institutional Sufism have contributed to the development not only of Islam
as bodies of religious teachings and practices but of distinctive Islamic civilizations in both
regions. The idea that Sufism is particularly peaceful can be found in contemporary discourse,
especially in Senegal and Indonesia but is a decidedly post-colonial development, often
framed in terms of the Western Violent Salafi/Peaceful Sufi distinction.
West African Cases

Sufism has been an important force in West African Islam for more than a millennium. Many
famous saints cultivated the piety and self-purification that are the hallmarks of Ethical
Sufism. Sufism has also been the mainstay of Islamic learning in West Africa, where the
bifurcation between jurists and mystics common in the Middle East is rare. Foundational
Islamic texts from West Africa such as Taʾrīkh al-Sudān, (History of West Africa) by al-Sa'di
(1655) refer to Sufi themes such as saints, asceticism, gnosis and blessing.[53]
From the seventeenth-century onward, Institutional Sufism has provided a framework for
organising religious communities, educational institutions, social networks, and economic
collectivities tied to rural agriculture. In the course of its historical evolution in the region,
70 December 2013
Sufism has been both pacifist and violent. The West African Sufi jihads provide convincing
refutations of the idea that Sufism is intrinsically peaceful.
For more than 250 years (1645-1900) Sufi leaders (marabouts) waged a series of jihad in
attempts to establish Islamic theocracies. Nasir al-Din (d. 1674) led the first of these in what is
today southern Mauritania. It was followed by many others, the most theoretically significant
of which are those of Usman dan Fodio (1754-1817)—leading to the creation of the Sokoto
Caliphate in present day northern Nigeria—and al-Hajj Umar Tall (1797-1865), which led to
the Toucouleur Islamic Empire in parts of what are now Guinea, Senegal and Mali.
The West African jihads were complex events. Ethnic relations and tribal warfare, tensions
between Islamic scholars and political elites, slave-raiding to supply the Atlantic slave trade,
the involvement of European powers (eventually through colonialism) and the end of the slave
trade all contributed to the origins and decline of this pre-modern jihadi tradition. Scholars
debate the contributions of these factors to the development of a jihad centred political
culture. There is, however, a consensus concerning the roles played by Sufi leaders, the
importance of Sufism in West African jihadi ideologies and the use of master-disciple
relationships and tariqa Sufism as tools for social mobilization and as the basis for the
construction of collective identities in the theocracies the jihads sought to establish.
Usman dan Fodio, the founder of the Sokoto Caliphate provides a clear example. He had a
vision in which he saw the Prophet Muhammad, his companions and other prophets and
saints, including al-Shaykh Abd al-Qadir al-Jilani (1077-1166), the founder of the Qadiriyya
tariqa to which dan Fodio belonged. According to dan Fodio’s account of this vision, al-Jilani
anointed him as the leader of saints (Imam Al-Awliyaa), and enjoined him “to command what
is good and to forbid what is reprehensible.” Then al-Jilani decorated dan Fodio with the
“Sword of Truth” and ordered him to “unsheathe it against the enemies of God.” (54) For dan
Fodio, this was the spiritual and moral authorization for his jihad.
Al-Hajj Umar Tall invoked the doctrines of the Tijaniyya tariqa in his articulation of the
doctrinal basis of jihad. In his magnum opus Kitab rimah hizb al-rahim ‘ala nuhur hizb al-
rajim (“The Book of the Lances of the Party of Allah the Merciful against the Necks of the
Party of Satan the Accursed”), he employed the sectarian Tijani discourse of spiritual election
to legitimise his military and political agendas. This discourse proclaims that the Tijaniyya
supersedes all other Sufi orders because of the exclusive guarantee of salvation Ahmad al-
Tijani, its founder, received from the Prophet Muhammad for himself and his followers. Umar
Tall also employed the Tijani doctrine of inkar that demonises all who reject the Tijani
doctrine of spiritual election to refute his opponents.
The Tijani demonisation of other Sufi jihadis is an example of the ways in which Sufi doctrine
can be used in contentious discourse about the differential legitimacy of jihadi movements and
theocracies. This discourse also figured significantly in the rivalry between leaders of the
Sokoto Caliphate and the Borno Empire. Polemical theological exchanges between them
71 December 2013
began in the nineteenth-century and have continued until the present, spanning pre-colonial,
colonial and post-colonial periods in West African history.
The establishment of colonial rule c. 1880s-1910s effectively ended this series of jihads and
incorporated the Sufi theocracies into colonial regimes, or abolished them altogether. In these
contexts, the West African Sufi orders were transformed in many ways. While the legacy and
rhetoric of the Sufi theocracies provided a framework for anti-colonial resistance, most of the
Sufi orders preferred strategies of avoiding colonial regimes. They created an Islamic public
sphere outside of the colonial system. By the end of the colonial period in the 1960s, the image
of the Sufi orders as pacifists had effectively replaced the earlier image of the Sufis as jihadi
empire builders. With the rise of Salafi movements in the region, the new idea of Sufi pacifism
gained even more credibility.
Sufi radicalism was transformed but not totally abandoned. This is particularly true of the
Tijaniyya order. Exclusivist discourses of spiritual election and the demonisation of others
remain constant sources of tension between Tijanis and other Muslims. The Qadiriyya order
has engaged this exclusivist discourse by constructing an alternative discourse of spiritual
election. Given the high stakes in the intra-Sufi discourses and counter-discourses (i.e.
spiritual salvation, religious authority, control of mosques, generating and controlling mass
followings) there have been instances of intra-Sufi violence. Confrontations between different
Tijaniyya branches were also common during the 1950s and 1960s. Intra Sufi tension and
conflicts ended only after the Salafi threat against all Sufis became clear during the 1970s. In
this context, Sufi radicalism redirected itself to counteract the denunciation of Sufism as
“totally un-Islamic” in Salafi takfiri discourse. Contemporary Sufi radicalism takes the form of
more flamboyant observance of the very practices—reverence for saints, visiting their shrines,
celebrating their birthdays, etc.—condemned as un-Islamic by the Salafis. With salvation
threatened, validity of the worshipped questioned, and religious communal identity castigated,
the stakes are high enough for the tension between Sufis and Salafis to erupt into violence. Sufi
radicalism in West Africa remains, but finds new forms in changing contexts, just as Salafi
radicalism does.
Southeast Asian Cases

Sufism has been one of the building blocks used in the construction of Islamic civilisations in
Southeast Asia since the coming of Islam in the 14th century.[55] Many early Southeast Asian
Muslim texts refer to Sufi concepts including asceticism, blessing and sainthood. Others
including the 18th century Serat (Book of Cabolek) concern relationships, and sometimes
conflict, between proponents of Philosophical and Shar’iah based Sufism.[56] Chronicles and
oral tradition credit conversion both to warrior Sultans and peaceful saints (wali). Sufi orders
have been present almost as long as Islam, but are not the dominant force that they are in West
Africa. Sufism is institutionalised in state systems and networks of schools (pesantren/pondok)
that teach law (fiqh) and theology (aqidah) as well as Sufism.[57] Many Southeast Asian
72 December 2013
Muslims practice Sufism independent of organised tariqa. As is true in West Africa, many
jurists are also Sufis.
Responses to European intrusion beginning in the 16th century included bitter protracted wars
in which Muslim rulers appealed to concepts of authority rooted in Philosophical Sufism and
later to rebellions based on similar principles led by princes and ulama. Among the most
protracted anti-colonial struggles were the Java War (1825-1830) and the Aceh War
(1914-1973). [58] In both cases Sufism and jihad legitimised resistance and were used for
social mobilization. In Aceh resistance to Dutch colonialism and the Indonesian state
continued until 2004. Smaller scale rebellions predicting the expulsion of kafir and coming of
a Just King (Ratu Adil) occurred in Java until the 1940s.[59] Social movements based on
similar principles are still encountered. Most of the hundreds of traditional Muslim states in
the region came to terms with colonialism, and developed ritual systems, based on Sufi
principles, including putative royal control of barakah.[60] Many of the ulama retreated to the
countryside, where, as in West Africa, they avoided conflict with colonial states and
established alternative public spheres based on Sufi principles.
Nadhlatul Ulama (NU), with approximately eighty million followers, is the largest Southeast
Asian Sufi movement. It was founded in 1926 partly in response to the Wahhabi occupation of
Mecca and Medina. [61] It is based in east Java in Indonesia. NU is led by kyai, charismatic
figures combining the attributes of Shar’iah oriented ulama and Sufi syechs. Many kyai are
reputed to have great mystical powers. There are more than 15,000 pesantren (boarding
schools) affiliated with NU, many of which are linked to Sufi religious orders. NU piety
emphasizes prayers for the dead (tahlilan), pilgrimage to holy graves (ziyarah) and the
recitation of salawaat (poetry invoking the Prophet Muhammad), which are popular among
Sufis everywhere.[62]
NU has stridently opposed terrorism and other forms of violence and promoted religious
pluralism since Abdurrahman Wahid (1940-2009) assumed its leadership in 1984. Wahid also
maintained that inter-religious dialog and cooperation are obligatory for all Muslims. He was
especially concerned with social justice and minority rights.
NU’s position on violence has been consistent for three decades. This does not, however, imply
that its theology is incompatible with violence. NU leaders and the rank and file have resorted
to extreme violence when convinced that the organisation and Islam were threatened. In 1965
NU played a major role in the mass slaughter of Indonesian communists. To this day, many
NU leaders who participated in the killings believe that they were necessary to defend Islam.
[63]
Today, Banser, NU’s paramilitary wing, is used to support pluralist policies. It has been
deployed to provide security for Christmas services and NU Sufi religious celebrations
threatened by violent Salafi groups. Banser leaders make it clear that they will not tolerate
interference with these events and will respond with force if necessary. At an event we
73 December 2013
attended in 2012 a Banser commander called on NU supporters to employ “all necessary

physical and spiritual power to combat anti-Sufi movements.”[64]
Banser is a hybrid force. Members are armed with bamboo staves and high-powered
slingshots. They are also trained in pencat silat, a Javanese martial arts tradition that combines
physical and spiritual training. Some are thought to have the power of invulnerability and the
ability to overcome opponents without resorting to physical force. They acquire these powers
through repeated pilgrimage to graves and other holy places associated with saints and sultans,
meditation and amulets obtained from kyai. Experts in this mystical-martial tradition are
sometimes referred to as “NU Special Forces.” They do not carry weapons because, it is said,
they do not need to. Banser inspires awe and respect from people it serves and protects, and
fear in the hearts of its enemies.
In Malaysia, a group based on similar Sufi principles carried out one of the most serious jihadi
attacks in the country’s history. Persaudaraan Ilmu Dalam al-Ma’unah (The al-Ma’unah
Brotherhood of Spiritual Knowledge) was established by Mohammed Amin Mohammed
Razali, known to his followers as Ustad (religious teacher) Amin or Syech in 1999. Razali had
studied mystical healing and pencat silat at an Indonesian pesantren. He claimed to act on the
authority of God and saints dwelling in a mystical dimension, to walk on water and to have
the power of invulnerability. The group’s motto was “Jihad is our path! Islam will triumph!” In
July of 2000 he and a group of 29 followers seized a military arms depot and proclaimed a
jihad against the Malaysian government. They subsequently surrendered to authorities. Most
received prison terms but Razali was convicted of waging war against the king and hanged.
[65]
The clearest contemporary Indonesia case of violent Sufism is Front Pembela Islam (Islamic
Defenders Front – FPI). Its motto is “Live honorably or die a martyr.” Rezieq Syihab and
Misbahul Anam, both of whom are Sufis, founded FPI in 1998. Most rank and file members
are from NU backgrounds. Rituals conducted at FPI headquarters in Jakarta closely resemble
those common in NU communities. FPI members we interviewed described Rizieq as a syech
who cleanses the souls of his followers.
FPI describes itself as a movement committed to combating sin, vice and heresy. It is known
for attacks on those it deems “deviant” and for “sweepings” (ransacking) of nightclubs, bars,
massage parlours and other establishments promoting what it considers to be immoral
activities, especially during Ramadan. FPI actions have yielded few fatalities but many victims
have been severely injured. More violent attacks in which there have been fatalities have been
directed against the Ahmadiyah sect of Islam which is widely condemned for heresy because
of the belief that its founder Mirza Ghalam Ahmad (1908-1935) was a prophet.[66]
74 December 2013
Conclusions and Policy Implications

For a decade now, think tanks including the RAND Corporation, the Heritage Foundation,
the Libforall Foundation and the Nixon Centre have promoted peaceful Sufism as an
alternative to violent Salafism and suggest that the US should encourage the spread of Sufi
teachings as an ideological component of the “Global War on Terror.” [67] In a conference
report by the Nixon Centre, Alex Alexiev, Senior Fellow at the Centre for Security Policy,
argued that:
… the conflict between Sufis and Wahhabis is emblematic of a larger struggle

between fundamentalism and syncretism, a struggle for the very soul of Islam.
One important difference between the two is the interpretation of jihad: in Sufism,
it is a striving for personal spiritual purification; while for Wahhabis it represents
the struggle for the worldwide victory of Islam.[68]
Invoking scholarly authority enables Alexiev and others to establish an aura of authenticity for
baseless claims about religiously justified violence and the theology of jihad. We have shown
that the categorical distinction between peaceful Sufism and violent Salafism is untenable. The
claim that Sufis subscribe to the teachings of the greater, peaceful jihad and Salafis to the
violent, lesser jihad is also incorrect. All Muslim theologies, including Wahhabism, subscribe
to the notion that the greater jihad is the struggle against the self.
Proponents of Sufi policy often invoke the works of scholars concerned with the classical texts
of philosophical Sufism and Sufi leaders committed to countering violent extremism and invite
them to speak at policy-oriented conferences. Salafis and Wahhabis with similar political
agendas receive far less attention. Policies and policy recommendations based on the “peaceful
Sufi”/“violent Salafi” distinction are fundamentally misguided. The cases examined in this
article clearly show that both Sufism and Salafism are used to justify peaceful and violent
political action. Policy makers and policy-oriented scholars would be well advised to abandon
the quest for theological roots of violence and theological tools for combating it. More
attention should be paid to variables that measure political attitudes and behaviour,
particularly tolerance of religious diversity, as well as the extent and types of political change
that religious movements and organisations seek to accomplish.
The widely acclaimed book The Illusion of an Islamic State: How an Alliance of Moderates
Launched a Successful Jihad Against Radicalisation and Terrorism in the World's Largest
Muslim-Majority Country, edited by Syaafi Maarif and Abdurrahman Wahid, and published by
the Libforall Foundation provides an ironic illustration.[69] The book is a strident criticism of
violent, intolerant variants of Indonesian political Salafism but ignores violent intolerant
variants of Indonesian political Sufism. Both editors champion diversity and tolerance as
religious virtues and sound policy. Ma’arif is former general secretary of Muhammadiyah—a
Salafi organisation. Wahid was general secretary of Nadhlatul Ulama—a Sufi organisation.
75 December 2013
They were close friends; shared commitments to democracy, social justice, tolerance and
nonviolence mattered more to them than theological difference. On the opposite end of the
spectrum, Rizieq Syihab, who is a Sufi, and Abu Bakr Ba’asyir, who is a Salafi, have both served
on the editorial board of the Islamist tabloid Suara Islam (Voice of Islam) that demonises
“liberal” Muslims and encourages violence against the Ahmadiyah and other “deviants.” Again,
political orientations and shared commitments to intolerance matter more than theological
differences.
About the Authors

Mark Woodward is Associate Professor of Religious Studies at Arizona State University in Tempe
Arizona, USA. Muhammad Sani Umar is Associate Professor of Religious Studies at
Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois, USA. Inayah Rohmaniyah is Senior Lecturer and
Chair of the Department of Sociology of Religion at Sunan Kalijaga State University in
Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Mariani Yahya is Lecturer in Journalism at Singapore Institute of
Management in Singapore.
Notes
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[13] S. Murata and W. Chittick, Visions of Islam (Visions of Reality), New York: Paragon House, 1998.
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[16] S. Murata and W. Chittick, op. cit.
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76 December 2013
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[24] M. Woodward, op. cit.
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[42] On Izala sse: R, Launay, Traders without Trade. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982; Beyond the Stream: Islam and Society in a
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[43] Anonymous, The Popular Discourses of Salafi Radicalism and Salafi Counter-radicalism in Nigeria: A Case Study of Boko Haram,
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[45] H. Federspeil, Sultans, Shamans, and Saints: Islam and Muslims in Southeast Asia, Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 2007.
[46] On Muhammadiyah, see: Alfian, Muhammadiyah. The Political Behaviour of a Muslim Modernist Organisation under Dutch Colonialism,
Yogyakarta: Gadjah Mada University Press 1989; M. Nakamura, The Crescent Arises over the Banyan Tree: A Study of the Muhammadiyah
Movement in a Central Javanese Town. Yogyakarta, Gadjah Mada University Press, 1978; D. Noer, The Modernist Muslim Movement in
Indonesia, 1900–1942 Kuala Lumpur: Oxford University Press, 1973.
[47] H. Federspiel, Islam and Ideology in the Emerging Indonesian State: The Persatuan Islam (Persis), 1923 to 1957. Leiden: Brill, 2001.
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[48] W. Liddle, “Media Dakwah Scripturalism. One Form of Political Thought and Action in New Order Indonesia,” in: M. Woodward (Ed.)
Toward A New Paradigm: Recent Developments in Indonesian Islamic Thought, Tempe: Program for Southeast Asian Studies Monograph
Series, Arizona State University, 1996; M. Woodward, A. Amin, I. Rohmaniyah, C. Lundry,“Indonesia’s Prosperity and Justice Party and the
Question of Culture,” Contemporary Islam, 2012: 1-17.
[49] N. De Long-Bas, Wahhabi Islam: From Revival and Reform to Global Jihad, New York: Oxford University Press, 2004; D. Commins, The
Wahhabi Mission and Saudi Arabia, New York: I. B. Tarus, 2009.
[50] Y. Machmudi, Islamising Indonesia: The Rise of Jemaah Tarbiyah and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). Canberra: Australian University
Press, 2008.
[51] Z. Abuza, Militant Islam in Southeast Asia: Crucible of Terror. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 2003; G. Barton, Jemaah Islamiyah: Radical
Islamism in Indonesia, Singapore: National University of Singapore Press, 2005.
[52] International Crisis Group (2010) Indonesia: The Dark Side of Jama’ah Ansharut Tauhid (JAT), Brussels: International Crisis Group, Asia
Briefing Number 107. http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/indonesia/B107-indonesia-the-dark-side-of-jamaah-
ansharut-tauhid-jat.aspx (Accessed July 26, 2012). Temby, Q. Imagining and Islamic State in Indonesia: From Darul Islam to Jemaah
Islamiyah, Indonesia, 89, 24-36, 2010.
[53] Z. Wright, "West Africa, Sufism," In: Oxford Islamic Studies Online. http://
www.oxfordislamicstudies.com.turing.library.northwestern.edu/article/opr/t343/e0083 (accessed Apr 11, 2013).
[54] M. Hiskett, The Sword of Truth: The Life and Times of the Shehu Usuman Dan Fodio (Islam and Society in Africa). Evanston:
Northwestern University Press, 1994.
[55] S. al-Attas, Some Aspects of Sufism as Understood and Practiced among the Malays, Singapore: Malaysian Sociological Research Institute,
1963; M. Ricklefs, (Mystic Synthesis in Java: A History of Islamization from the Fourteenth to the Early Nineteenth Centuries. White Plains, NY:
EastBridge 2007. P. Riddell, Islam in the Malay-Indonesian World: Transmission and Responses, Hurst: London, 2002.
[56] Soebardi, The Book of Cabolek, The Hague: Martinus Nijhoff, 1975.
[57] M. Van Bruinessen, Martin “Pesantren and Kitab Kuning: Continuity and Change in a Tradition of Religious Learning”; in: Wolfgang
Marschall (Ed.), Texts from the Islands: Oral and Written Traditions of Indonesia and the Malay World [Ethnologica Bernica, 4]. Berne:
University of Berne, 121-145, 1994; “The Origins and Development of Sufi Orders (Tarekat) in Southeast Asia,” Studia Islamika - Indonesian
Journal for Islamic Studies 1(1): 1-23; Z. Dhofier,The Pesantren Tradition: The Role of the Kyai in the Maintenance of Traditional Islam in Java.
Tempe: Program for Southeast Asian Studies, Arizona State University, 1999; M. Woodward, op. cit.
[58] P. Carey, The Origins of the Java War (1825-1830) London: Longmans 1976, C. Hurgronje, The Achehnese, two vols, (translated from
Dutch into English by A. O'Sullivan), Leiden: E.J. Brill, 1906;
[59] S. Kartodirdjo, The Peasants revolt of Banten in 1888: Its Conditions, Course, and Sequel: A Case of Social Movements in Indonesia, The
Hague: Koninklijk Instituut voor Taal-, Land- en Volkenkunde, 1966.
[60] M. Woodward, Islam in Java: Normative Piety and Mysticism in the Sultanate of Yogyakarta, Tucson : The University of Arizona Press,
1989.
[61] G. Fealy and G. Barton (eds.) Nahdlatul Ulama, traditional Islam and modernity in Indonesia. Syndey: Monash Asia Institute, 1996. Bush,
Robin (2009); Nahdlatul Ulama and the Struggle for Power within Islam and Politics in Indonesia, Singapore, National University of Singapore,
Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2009.
[62] M. Woodward, I. Rohmaniyah, A. Amin, S. Ma’arif, D. Murtaugh Coleman and Muhammad and S. Umar, “Ordering What is Right,
Forbidding What is Wrong: Two Faces of Hadhrami Dakwah in Contemporary Indonesia”, Review of Indonesian and Malaysian Affairs, 46 (2)
105–46, 2012.
[63] M. Woodward, “Only Now Can We Speak: Remembering Politicide in Yogyakarta,” Journal of Social Issues in Southeast Asia, 26 (1),
36-57, 2011.
[64] M. Woodward, Ethnographic field notes, April 18, 2012.
[65] Z. Mohamed, Al-Maunah: Kebenaran Yang Sebenar (The Naked Truth). Kuala Lumpur: Zabidi Publications, 2003.
[66] M. Woodward, et. al. 2012.
[67] L. Curtis and H. Mullick, “Reviving Pakistan's Pluralist Traditions to Fight Extremism,” Heritage Foundation,2009. http://
www.heritage.org/research/reports/2009/05/reviving-pakistans-pluralist-traditions-to-fight-extremism Z. Baran (ed.) Understanding Sufism
and its Potential Role in US Policy, Nixon Centre Conference Report March 2004. http://www.islamawareness.net/Sufism/sufism_us_policy.pdf
A. Rabasa, Building Moderate Muslim Networks, http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG574.html
[68] A. Alexiev, Understanding Sufism and its Potential Role in US Policy, Nixon Centre Conference Report March 2004. http://
www.islamawareness.net/Sufism/sufism_us_policy.pdf
[69] A. Wahid and S. Ma’arif (eds.) The Illusion of an Islamic State: How an Alliance of Moderates Launched a Successful Jihad Against
Radicalization and Terrorism in the World's Largest Muslim-Majority Country, Jakarta: Libforall Foundation, 2011.
78 December 2013
Simultaneous Attacks by Terrorist Organisations

by Kathleen Deloughery
Abstract
While terror attacks that are a part of a coordinated effort receive attention in the popular media,
they have not received much attention in the academic literature. The decision to carry out
simultaneous attacks should be examined as one of the choices a terrorist organisation makes
about the method of attack. Determining the impact of simultaneous attacks vis-à-vis a single
attack can explain why groups would use this method. Up to one quarter of all attacks coded in
two major databases, GTD and ITERATE, may be part of a simultaneous campaign. Empirical
analysis shows simultaneous attacks are more likely to be successful and cause more fatalities,
though not in a one-to-one fashion. These results underline the importance of considering
simultaneous attacks in empirical analysis.
Keywords: violence, data analysis, database, impacts of terrorism
Introduction
Why do some terrorist organisations group their attacks close together, while others spread
them out? For instance, Al-Qaeda is well known for carrying out simultaneous attacks—that
is, having different terror cells hit more than one location at approximately the same time. It is
accepted in the literature that terrorist organisations choose the method and location of their
attack in order to achieve political or economic destabilization of the targeted government and
to garner media attention for their cause. To carry out a single attack versus a simultaneous
campaign is a decision for terrorists to consider, yet researchers have not examined these
decisions closely. This article will examine why groups would carry out simultaneous
campaigns over single attacks: what are the benefits?
In two of the largest terrorism datasets, International Terrorism: Attributes of Terrorist Events
(ITERATE) [1] and the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) [2], attacks are coded as single
events, even when they are carried out as part of a coordinated campaign.[3] Unfortunately,
neither dataset specifically denotes whether or not attacks are coordinated. In order to
complete any analysis, this project will first determine which attacks formed part of a
coordinated campaign.
Since the most commonly used datasets disaggregate simultaneous attacks, the empirical
literature on terrorism has a dearth of academic studies on this type of attack. Theoretical
papers have examined the scale of terrorist attacks. Past research shows that the scale of a
terrorist attack can help the targeted government to estimate the size of the organisation’s
resources.[4] Coordinated attacks are by definition of a larger scale. The terror attacks of
79 December 2013
September 11, 2001 (a simultaneous attack with four component attacks), was of a scale not
seen before.[5] Economic impact models of terror attacks have shown that simultaneous
attacks can magnify the impact of a terror attack.[6] This article will differentiate between
simultaneous attacks and single attacks using empirical analysis. In the past, empirical
investigations of terrorism have largely ignored the presence of simultaneous attacks in the
ITERATE and the GTD datasets. Not recognising that these attacks can be very different from
single attacks may have biased the results of many past studies.
Potentially biased studies fall into two main categories: examining the level of terrorism or
examining the impact of terrorism. In the former, terrorism is the dependent variable, while in
the latter it is the independent variable. When a researcher is predicting the level of terrorism
in a country/region/year given certain attributes, each attack, even if part of a coordinated
effort, is coded separately. This coding is potentially problematic since attacks that are part of a
coordinated effort are made under the same decision making process. For instance, terrorist
organisations consider military expenditures when choosing a country to attack; that decision
should only matter one time for a coordinated campaign. If all attacks are thought to be single
attacks, then the terrorist organisation would be making that decision every time they carried
out an attack. Therefore, the dependent variable would be systematically higher than the true
value when coordinated attacks are present in the system. Such a measurement of the
dependent variable is problematic, but only detrimental to the predictions of the past models
if the measurement error is correlated with the independent variables, thus biasing the
parameter estimates. It is highly likely that simultaneous attacks, the source of the
measurement error, are correlated with some of the variables that factor into the resulting level
of terrorism.
Potentially more problematic are the implications for studies assessing the impact of terrorism.
For instance, there have been studies looking into the impact of terrorism on tourism [7],
urban development [8], public opinion [9], and industry.[10] In these studies, terrorism is
used as an independent variable to explain another phenomenon. Therefore, if any of the
attacks coded are part of a coordinated effort, then that independent variable will be measured
with error, i.e. the measure of terrorism will be overestimated. This counting system assumes
that the individual attacks within a simultaneous effort have a one-to-one additive effect,
which may not be true. For instance, if a coordinated attack consists of two attacks, then this
counting system implies that each of the two attacks have the same impact as a different single
attack. If an independent variable is measured with such an error then this can lead to biased
estimates of the parameters. Therefore, the impact of terrorism that these empirical studies are
obtaining may not be the true parameter estimates.
Given the potential for bias in results ignoring simultaneous attacks, it is worthwhile to
explore how common this type of attack is in terrorism datasets. First, the theoretical
arguments surrounding simultaneous campaigns and impact of attacks are discussed. Second,
the data used in the analysis will be presented. Third, follows an examination of the
80 December 2013
methodology and results from the empirical analysis. Finally, suggestions will be offered for
future research and analysis on simultaneous attacks.
Theoretical Arguments
Which is better for the terrorist organisation, carrying out many individual attacks throughout
the year or concentrating on one large simultaneous set of attacks? To make an assessment of
this, we must start from the assumption that terrorist organisations are choosing their optimal
number of attacks given their budget constraints and the role that attacks play in their main
goals: destabilization, media attention, and recruiting new members.[11] Due to budget and
training constraints, organisations must decide whether to apply their resources to single
attacks spread out over time or devote time and energy to a smaller number of coordinated
attacks.
Coordinated attacks are likely to kill more people than single attacks. First, since these attacks
usually take place in two or more separate locations, there tends to be an increase in the total
number of potential victims. Additionally, individuals with greater skills and capabilities are
assigned to harder terrorist attacks and these individuals tend to be both more successful and
kill more people on average.[12] Simultaneous attacks require more planning and
coordination; everything else being equal, they are harder to execute than single attacks, thus
individuals with more advanced abilities will be assigned to these tasks. As a result,
coordinated attacks should cause more deaths than single attacks.
Similarly, coordinated attacks could be more successful than single attacks. There are two ways
to calculate the success of simultaneous attacks. First, one can use the maximum success of all
attacks within the campaign. Only one portion of the attack needs be successful in order to
incite fear and create direct victims. Second, the average of the success of each attack within
the coordinated effort can be used to accurately measure the effectiveness of the campaign.
Simultaneous attacks should be more successful than single attacks for two reasons. If a single
attack that is part of a coordinated effort is unsuccessful, the campaign can still be a success if
one of the other parts of the effort is successful. Additionally, more able individuals are
assigned to harder tasks [13]. Therefore, due to planning and coordination issues, more able
individuals should be assigned to coordinated terrorist efforts, thus leading to more successful
simultaneous attacks.
If simultaneous attacks tend to produce more fatalities and are more successful, these attacks
should receive more media coverage. A single unsuccessful attack may not receive media
attention, but a coordinated campaign with one unsuccessful component is likely to be
reported. Additionally, the higher the number of casualties, the greater amount of media
attention the attack is likely to receive.[14] Therefore, if coordinated attacks do generate more
fatalities, then simultaneous attacks in developed countries are more likely to garner media
attention than single attacks. This increased news coverage can have the effect of bringing the
motives of the terrorist organisation to the forefront, thus satisfying one of their main goals. In
81 December 2013
fact, the coordinated attacks on September 11th had a permanent effect of increasing the
number of news stories on terrorism.[15]
Based on these reflections, two hypotheses concerning the impact of simultaneous attacks will
be tested in the empirical section:
H1: Simultaneous campaigns tend to kill more people than single attacks.
H2: Simultaneous campaigns tend to have higher success rates than unsuccessful campaigns.
Data
Data for this project were derived from three main sources. Data on terrorist attacks come
mostly from the University of Maryland’s Global Terrorism Database (GTD). The GTD is a
comprehensive dataset covering both domestic and transnational terrorist events from 1970
until 2007 and beyond to the present day. It is one of the very few datasets with a worldwide
coverage that also contains information on domestic terror events. Therefore, by using the
GTD, we are able to obtain a fuller picture of the total amount of terrorism occurring in the
world.[16]
However, this dataset is not without its shortcomings. First, the information in the GTD was
collected entirely from open sources. Therefore, bias could be introduced to the model if
attacks are not reported in public sources. Attacks that are stopped in the planning stages and
not reported to the media are also not included. Additionally, the GTD does not contain full
data for the year 1993. Finally, the GTD uses an operationalised definition of success, resulting
in over 90 percent of attacks being coded as successes.
The ITERATE dataset, which was developed by Edward Mickolus, contains more granular
information on the success of terror attacks. In ITERATE, success is coded on a 0-6 scale, with
information on attacks stopped in the planning stages, attacks executed unsuccessfully, and
attacks carried out as intended. For instance, the four attacks comprising the events of
September 11th, 2001 are all coded as successes in the GTD. However, ITERATE codes the
attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon as successes, but the crash of United
Flight 93 is coded as an attack that was executed, but unsuccessfully. This information
provides a much sharper picture of the difference in success between different attacks than the
information in the GTD. Therefore, the analysis on the success of simultaneous attacks vis-à-
vis single attacks will be carried out using ITERATE.[17]
Since neither dataset separately denotes when attacks are a part of a coordinated event, the
available data was used to construct which attacks are most likely to constitute simultaneous
attacks. Several different definitions of coordinated events were considered; however, in order
to not overstate the effects of simultaneous attacks in this article, the strictest definition of
simultaneous attacks was chosen. In order for two or more attacks to be considered part of a
82 December 2013
simultaneous campaign, the attacks must be carried out on the same day, in the same country,
by the same group, using the same method.
Figure I: Number of Terror Attacks per Year
Under this definition, approximately 25 percent of the attacks coded in the GTD are part of a
simultaneous campaign. The breakdown of simultaneous campaigns by year can be seen in
Figure 1. This definition probably understates the proportion of simultaneous campaigns in
the dataset. By definition, if the group perpetrating the attack is unknown, the attack cannot
be part of a simultaneous campaign. Approximately 38 percent of all attacks in the dataset
were carried out by unknown perpetrators. Relaxing the definition of simultaneous attacks to
only consider the day, location, and method of attack shows approximately 30 percent of all
attacks listed in the GTD as being part of simultaneous campaigns. Additionally, groups can
carry out coordinated attacks in different countries. For example, in 1998 local members of the
Egyptian Islamic Jihad (affiliated with the global Al-Qaeda network) carried out coordinated
truck bombs in Kenya and Tanzania. Since these attacks took place in separate countries, they
will not be coded as simultaneous attacks. However, relaxing the definition of simultaneous
attacks to only consider the day, method, and group, shows 26 percent of all attacks listed in
the GTD are part of simultaneous campaigns. Using the strictest definition may exclude some
attacks that are part of coordinated efforts, but it should minimise the number of single attacks
which are incorrectly classified as part of a simultaneous campaign.
When utilising the information from ITERATE, the same technique is used to define
simultaneous attacks – the attacks must have taken place on the same day, location, method,
and group. Approximately 13 percent of the total attacks in the ITERATE dataset are part of a
coordinated campaign. This number is lower than the corresponding calculations in the GTD
83 December 2013
dataset. ITERATE only contains information on transnational terrorism, therefore suggesting

that coordinated campaigns happen at higher rates in domestic attacks than in transnational
attacks. However, this finding may be due to peculiarities of the data available. Transnational
attacks can occur in many different countries, while domestic attacks must by definition take
place in the same country where the group is located. Therefore, since the definition of a
simultaneous attack in this article requires that the attacks occur in the same country, we may
be undercounting the number of transnational simultaneous attacks. For this reason, the data
from ITERATE will only be used when testing Hypothesis H2 – calculating the impact of
simultaneous attacks on success or failure of attacks.
A third set of data is derived from the Big Allied and Dangerous (BAAD I) dataset.[18] This
dataset codes information on terrorist group characteristics. The dataset contains a snapshot
of each terrorist organisation at one point in time between 1998 and 2005. Information
offering insight into group capability includes data on age, size, ideology, territorial holdings,
and number of alliances. Information from BAAD will be used to control for the
characteristics of terrorist organisations that may lead to more terror fatalities.
Results
First the number of fatalities will be examined. Since some terrorist organisations do not
intend to kill individuals with their attacks, group characteristics from the BAAD dataset will
be added to this analysis. Figure II shows the number of fatalities in single attacks and attacks
that are part of a coordinated campaign. II.
84 December 2013
Figure II
Since the early 1980s, attacks as part of a coordinated effort have led to more fatalities. In
order to verify this relationship, other characteristics that also determine the number of
fatalities must be added to a regression equation. When information from the BAAD dataset is
used in the regression analysis, only attacks carried out by perpetrators in the BAAD dataset
between 1998 and 2005 are included, which further restricts the sample. While this sub-
sample is non-random, the groups in the BAAD dataset were not selected based on whether or
not they carried out simultaneous attacks. Therefore, it is plausible that the sub-sample is
random on the known characteristics, and especially our characteristic of interest –
simultaneous attacks. In Figure II, the time period from 1998-2005 records a larger divergence
in fatalities from single attacks versus coordinated campaigns than earlier time periods. This
divergence may indicate that coordinated campaigns are different in this time period than
earlier. However, in Figure I, this time period experienced fewer attacks that were part of a
coordinated effort. These issues need to be remembered when generalisations are made.
In this regression, the number of people killed in each attack will be a function of whether or
not the attack was simultaneous, whether or not there were regional effects, year effects, attack
type effects, group ideology, number of allies, and whether or not the attack was a suicide
attack. The number of people killed is censored at 0 – meaning that many attacks result in no
fatalities, so a Tobit model will be employed. The Tobit model allows the econometrician to
account for different types of 0’s in the dependent variable.[19] In this case, the number of
85 December 2013
people killed may be 0 because the attack was unsuccessful in killing anyone or because the
group never had any intention of causing casualties.
The results from the Tobit estimation can be seen in Table I. The coefficient of simultaneous is
positive and significant, implying that attacks that are a part of simultaneous campaigns tend
to kill more people. On average, 45 percent more fatalities occur in simultaneous campaigns
than in single attacks, all else being held constant. Note that while the number of people killed
increases with simultaneous attacks, the increase is not one-to-one with the scale of the attack.
By definition, a simultaneous attack must have at least two attacks as components. However,
the number of people killed in a coordinated effort less than doubles. This finding lends
credence to the issues raised earlier, namely that using counts to measure the impact of terror
attacks could lead to biased results when single and simultaneous accounts are treated the
same way.
Table I: Number of Individuals Killed by Terror Attack 1998-2005
25.24***
Simultaneous
(5.30)
52.70***
Suicide Mission
(5.91)
2.77
Leftist Only
(5.69)
10.17**
Religion Only
(4.86)
-0.46
Ethnic Only
(13.07)
39.70**
Large
(15.29)
2.10***
Alliance
(0.35)
Region FE Yes
Time FE Yes
Type FE Yes
-100.74
Constant
(17.16)
Observations 2851
* Statistically significant at 10% level
** Statistically significant at 5% level
*** Statistically significant at 1 % level
Next, how simultaneous attacks impact the success of terrorist attacks was examined using the
ITERATE dataset. Since information on group characteristics are not used to explain success,
the regression is no longer restricted to only the years where BAAD data is available. The
impact of simultaneity on success is weaker, as can be seen in Table II, but provides evidence
that simultaneous attacks are more successful than single attacks.
86 December 2013
Table II: Success of Terror Attacks 1968-2004
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3

Ordered Logit - Max Tobit - Average Ordered Logit - Average
1.088*** 0.173 0.3822**
Simultaneous
(0.161) (0.209) (0.129)
Year Fixed Effects Yes Yes Yes
Method Fixed Effects Yes Yes Yes
Country Fixed Effects Yes Yes Yes
7.59
Constant NA NA
(1.10)
Observations 10819 10819 10819
* Statistically significant at 10% level
** Statistically significant at 5% level
*** Statistically significant at 1 % level
Three specifications of the model were run. For each specification, attacks that are part of a
coordinated effort are combined to count as a single attack and denoted as “simultaneous”.
Other variables in the regression that may characterize success include location of attack,
method of attack, and year of attack.
Country and year fixed effects are included in this regression. The level of success by year
varies from a low of 4.5 to a high of 5.8 on a six point scale. The average level of successful
terror attacks in individual countries varies between 2.5 and 6.0 on a six point scale. Therefore,
differences between different countries and years need to be taken into account in the
regression model. One reason for these differences in success may be the level of deterrence by
the targeted country; this should help determine success. Therefore, countries that spend more
on deterrence should experience fewer successful attacks. The amount of money spent on
deterrence depends on the country’s determination of the risk they may face. Controlling for
the year of attack will control for differences in deterrence by year. However, deterrence
spending is not the only factor that determines success. Method of attack also plays a role. For
instance, suicide attacks may be harder to deter than other methods. ITERATE codes the
method of attack into twenty-five broad categories including assassination, bombing, hostage
taking, hijacking, and armed assault, etc. The average success by type of attack varies from 2.5
to 5.9 on ITERATE’s six point scale.
Three models, referring to three ways to operationalise success, are presented in Table 2. In
Model 1, success of a coordinated campaign is assigned the value of its most successful
component. In a coordinated campaign, only one component of the attack has to be successful
in order for the public to view the attack as a success. Since the dependent variable is an
ordinal variable between 0 and 6, an ordered logit estimation is run. In this model,
simultaneous attacks are more successful than single attacks. Next, success of a coordinated
87 December 2013
campaign is assigned the value of the average success of each of its components. This
definition of success is the most intuitive in operational terms, but it is more difficult to
address empirically. The success variable is still between 0 and 6, but for simultaneous
campaigns the variable is not necessarily an integer. In Model 2, a Tobit estimation is run on
the average success variable. Tobit was used since there are many censored variables at both
the upper and lower limits of the success scale. The results of this estimation model show no
relationship between simultaneous attacks and success. In Model 3, the average success of each
terrorist campaign is still used, but this number is rounded to its nearest integer value,
allowing an ordered logit regression. Model 3 reveals a positive relationship between
simultaneous attacks and success. Examining the odds ratio for Model 1 and Model 3 reveals
that a coordinated campaign increases the probability of success by between 46 and 172
percent.
Both hypotheses, H1 and H2, were supported by the empirical analysis – simultaneous
campaigns generate more fatalities and are more successful. However, the number of fatalities
increases by only 45 percent, while the number of attacks involved at least doubles. The impact
of the simultaneous attack is greater than the impact of a single attack, but in a smaller
proportion to the increase in size. If the goal of the terrorist group is maximizing the number
of deaths on a specific day, then it would make sense to use simultaneous attacks. If the goal of
the group is to maximize the total number of fatalities in a year, single attacks may be more
worthwhile. Hypothesis H2 is also supported, though results depend on how success for
coordinated campaigns is defined. A terrorist group that is interested in successfully carrying
out their planned attacks may be more interested in using simultaneous campaigns. Given the
support for H1 and H2, considering each part of the campaign individually, as has been done
by the past literature, may not be appropriate.
Conclusions
Simultaneous attacks have been largely ignored by the empirical literature on terrorism. In this
article, several specifications are considered to classify which events are a part of simultaneous
campaigns. The strictest definition - same day, group, location, and type of attack - is used in
all analyses to protect against incorrectly classifying attacks as simultaneous.
The goal of this article was to examine the impact of simultaneous attacks. The hypotheses
stated that simultaneous attacks would be more successful and lethal. The empirical results
suggest that simultaneous attacks have a higher probability of success. Additionally,
simultaneous attacks generate more fatalities, but not on a “one-to-one” basis. This research
has established that single attacks are different from attacks that are part of a coordinated
effort, even though these two types of attacks are treated the same by the empirical
quantitative literature. This difference should be considered in the future to ensure that results
obtained from using terrorism counts are not biased. A closer look should also be given in
future analyses with regard to the definition of “success”. An attack, or a set of attacks, might
88 December 2013
be “successful” in tactical terms but be a strategic failure. Beyond the “success” of individual or
coordinated acts of terrorism, there is the issue of long-term effects. Terrorism as a mode of
conflict waging has a poor record of achieving its ultimate objectives.[20]
About the Author: Kathleen Deloughery is an Assistant Professor of Public Administration and
Policy at the University at Albany, SUNY. She received her Ph.D. in Economics from The Ohio
State University in 2009. Professor Deloughery’s main research interests include the economics of
terrorism, radicalization, and political violence. She can be reached at
[email protected].
Notes
[1] Edward Mickolus, Todd Sandler, Jean Murdock, and Peter Flemming. International Terrorism: Attributes of Terrorist Events Data
Codebook, July 2002.
[2] National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). (2012). Global Terrorism Database [Data file].
Retrieved from http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd
[3] For instance, both datasets code the events of September 11th, 2001, as four separate attacks.
[4] Per Baltzer Overgaard (1994). “The Scale of Terrorist Attacks as a Signal of Resources.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution. Vol. 38, No. 3,
pp. 452-478.
[5] Hoffman, Bruce (2002). “Rethinking Terrorism and Counterterrorism Since 9/11.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism. Vol 25, Issue 5, pp
303-316.
[6] Gordon, Peter; Moore, James E. II; Richardson, Harry W.; and Pan, Qisheng, "The Economic Impact of a Terrorist Attack on the Twin
Ports of Los Angeles- Long Beach" (2005). Non-published Research Reports. Paper 23. http://research.create.usc.edu/nonpublished_reports/
23
[7] Walter Enders, Todd Sandler, and Gerald F. Parise (1992). An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism. Kyklos 45, pp.
531-554.
[8] Edward Glaeser and Jesse Shapiro (2002). “Cities and Warfare: The Impact of Terrorism on Urban Form.” Journal of Urban Economics.
Volume 51, Issue 2, pp. 205-224.
[9] Theodore Downes-Le Guin and Bruce Hoffman (1993). The Impact of Terrorism on Public Opinion - 1988-1989. Santa Monica, CA: RAND
Corporation.
[10] Claude Berrebi and Esteban Klor (2005). “The Impact of Terrorism across Industries: An Empirical Study.” C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
5360.
[11] Frey, B.S. and S. Luechinger (2008). "Three Strategies to Deal with Terrorism." Economic Papers Vol. 27, No. 2, pp.107-114.
[12] Effi Benmelech and Claude Berrebi (2007) “Human Capital and the Productivity of Suicide Bombers.” Journal of Economic Perspectives,
Vol. 21, No. 3, pp. 223-238.
[13] Ibid.
[14] Dominic Rohner and Bruno S. Frey. (2007) “Blood and ink! The common-interest-game between terrorists and the media.” Public
Choice, Volume 133, pp. 129-145.
[15] Ibid.
[16] National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (2012).
[17] Mickolus, et al. International Terrorism. July 2002.
[18] Victor H. Asal and R. Karl Rethemeyer. (2008). “The Nature of the Beast: Terrorist Organisational Characteristics and Organisational
Lethality.” Journal of Politics, Vol. 70, No. 2, pp. 437- 449.
[19] A zero inflated negative binomial was also run. The results are robust and available upon request.
[20] Cf. Alex P. Schmid and Rashmi Singh. Measuring Success and Failure in Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: US Government Metrics of
the Global War on Terror. In: Alex P. Schmid and Garry F. Hindle. After the War on Terror. Regional and Multilateral Perspectives on
Counter-Terrorism Strategy. London: RUSI, 2009, pp. 33-61; Max Abrahms. The Political Effectiveness of Terrorism Revisited. Comparative
Political Studies, Vol. 45, No. 3, pp. 266 -293.
89 December 2013
II. Policy Notes

Al-Shabaab’s Somali Safe Havens: A Springboard for Terror
by Josh Meservey
Abstract
Al-Shabaab’s recent terror attack on the Westgate mall in Nairobi is not, as some have argued, a
sign of the group’s desperation, but rather reveals its strength. Its most radical leader recently
consolidated his control of the group, and the AMISOM offensive has stalled, ceding safe havens
within the country that allow al-Shabaab to regroup and prosecute the insurgency it has
launched. But the anti-Shabaab coalition has neither a sufficient number of troops nor the
trained counterinsurgent forces required to root out the group. The coalition instead has to find a
way for now to keep al-Shabaab off-balance in its sanctuaries, perhaps with elite unit and UAV
strikes, while the international community trains adequate indigenous forces. The ultimate
solution to the al-Shabaab challenge is the long-term project of building a legitimate Somali
government; but in the meantime, Shabaab cannot be allowed to gather its strength to launch
more attacks from its sanctuaries.
Keywords: al-Shabaab, Somalia, AMISOM, terrorist safe havens
Introduction
The terrible tragedy at the Westgate mall in Nairobi, Kenya, is now ended. The final toll is still
unclear, but at the time of this writing 72 people are confirmed dead, well over 150 injured,
and more than 60 still missing.[1] Kenya and the other countries that lost citizens are now left
to mourn, while their leaders face the task of preventing another such attack.
Analysts are still grappling with what this assault tells us about the Somali terrorist group, al-
Shabaab, that claimed the attack. Ken Menkhaus, the eminent Somali expert, posted an article
describing the attack as a sign of “desperation” by the group.[2] But others argued that the
episode instead reveals al-Shabaab’s strength, rather than a desperate bid to claw back some
relevance.[3]
Those making the latter argument better capture the group’s trajectory. It is true that the
African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) offensive in Somalia hurt al-Shabaab. The
coalition’s [4] capture of Kismayo and Mogadishu damaged the group’s income as it is no
longer able to rely on the taxes from Kismayo’s port or Mogadishu’s Bakara Market, making it
difficult to provide the same sort of financial benefits to its fighters that induced many of them
to join in the first place.[5] This and other factors have led to waves of defections.[6]
Furthermore, al-Shabaab has lost much of the infrastructure it used for transmitting
propaganda, such as several of its radio stations, another happy outcome of the coalition’s
90 December 2013
offensive.[7] And while there are no solid numbers on just how many insurgents have been
killed in the offensive, they are likely significant.[8]
The group also recently experienced an extraordinary spasm of internecine violence. In mid-
June, Shabaab factions met in a series of clashes in southern Somalia;[9] after the dust settled,
it was clear that the group’s Emir, Ahmed Abdi Godane, had moved swiftly and with
extraordinary ruthlessness against several challengers. His men killed at least two prominent
leaders of the group, including a fellow founder. Another founder fled to the shelter of his
clansmen, and the group’s spiritual leader tried to defect to the Somali Federal Government
(SFG) and was arrested.[10] A month later, Godane’s men finally caught up with the group’s
most prominent foreign fighter, an American named Omar Hammami, and killed him as well.
[11] Al-Shabaab was reeling.
But the purge also left Ahmed Abdi Godane, its most radical and ruthless leader, firmly in
control of the group. Godane is a fanatic, a true believer in the worst excesses of the violent
Islamic sub-sect known as Salafi-Jihad, and is committed to the idea of global war against any
who do not agree with his narrowly defined beliefs. The Westgate slaughter was likely both a
very public reminder of his new supremacy within the group to anyone who questioned it, as
well as a signal of his willingness to prosecute jihad more vigorously in the region.
And while AMISOM made excellent progress against the group, their offensive is now stopped
in its tracks. In June of this year, AMISOM switched to a “protection-of-civilians” strategy that
consists of consolidating its gains and proactively protecting civilians under its control.[12]
Protecting civilians is a critical piece of any counterinsurgency strategy, but AMISOM may
also have calculated that pushing further into Shabaab-held territory would leave its troops
stretched too thin to effectively hold the areas it has already liberated, opening up a dangerous
opportunity for Shabaab.
That is why al-Shabaab’s Westgate attack should be understood as a warning, rather than as a
death rattle. The parts of Somalia out of which the group has yet to be pushed serve as safe
havens where it is free to rest, regroup, and plan attacks in service of the insurgency it has
launched against the SFG and its allies.
Safe havens are an obvious problem for counterinsurgents. Insurgents that have them have
historically been far more difficult to defeat than those kept on the run: the Afghan Taliban’s
ability to safely ensconce itself in sanctuaries in Pakistan is one of the major reasons ISAF has
struggled to bring order to Afghanistan, while the Viet Cong enjoyed the safety of Laos and
Cambodia for most of the Vietnam War.[13] Fortunately, all of Somalia’s neighbors are
committed to defeating Shabaab and denying it a safe haven within their borders, but the
group does not need to look that far afield for sanctuary; it has found it in the forbidding
forests of Lower Jubba near the Kenyan border and the Galgala Mountains in the North.[14]
Counterinsurgency doctrine has much to say about how terrain and cover of the type found in
those areas is highly appealing to insurgents looking for an area in which to hide and negate
91 December 2013
their foe’s advantages in conventional weaponry. Gebru Tareke, a historian at Yale University
who has studied the Ethiopian insurgencies, describes the “ideal terrain” for insurgents as an
“expansive area of forests, marshes, or mountain ranges and gorges,”[15] another author
speaks of “swamps, mountains, and forests,”[16] while the USMC Small Wars Manual warns
that Marines should expect to battle insurgents in “mountainous, wooded terrain.”[17]
A number of history’s most infamous insurgencies have avoided destruction by retreating to

mountain and forest redoubts. Since inception, the FARC has hidden in the thick jungles of
Colombia,[18] and the Malayan Races Liberation Army was so adept at jungle warfare that in
response the British began a school that became known as the Jungle Warfare School.[19] The
Taliban escaped to the Tora Bora mountains from which it launched its insurgency,[20] while
the Viet Cong hid so deeply in the jungle it was “virtually impossible” for the U.S. military to
hunt them down, and the Sandinistas in Nicaragua survived the U.S.’s best efforts to eliminate
them, in part because they made ample use of a mountain surrounded by jungle terrain.[21]
The forests of Lower Jubba are on par as an ideal safe haven with all of those examples. They
have served as a traditional sanctuary for Somali extremists for nearly 20 years, and have been
described as “a vast area of inaccessible jungles” and “remote bush.”[22] These areas have
already caused the coalition problems. The Kenyan Defence Force’s (KDF) advance towards
Kismayo was slowed when its mechanized units had trouble navigating the forests, while the
Shabaab guerrillas made good use of the ample cover to avoid the KDF’s superior firepower.
[23]
Perhaps more concerning is the mountainous Galgala region of Puntland and its network of
caves and training camps. The area is notoriously inaccessible and has explicitly been
compared on more than one occasion to Afghanistan’s Tora Bora mountains.[24] Stratfor
released a report pointing out that the vegetation is so thick in the mountains, and the weather
hot enough during the day, that fighters may be able to evade targeting systems from weapons
platforms, including infrared targeting.[25] Its proximity to Yemen has in the past made it an
ideal base from which to both send and receive weapons and fighters across the Gulf of Aden;
reports of boatloads of fighters in that area, and of skiffs stuffed with weapons likely meant for
al-Shabaab, suggests the group is utilizing this traditional smuggling route.[26]
Worse yet, a radical militia led by Yasin Kilwe operates in that area and hosts several hundred
al-Shabaab fighters, including senior leaders.[27] The Puntland authorities have never been
able to subdue Kilwe’s group, and it has reportedly even captured parts of the Galgala region
while also launching a deadly attack against a military base in Puntland. In February 2012, the
militia formally joined al-Shabaab.[28]
These realities suggest that there is a critical need to keep pressing the attack against al-
Shabaab and root it out of its sanctuaries, but also that it will not be easy. To begin with, more
troops will be needed. A RAND study found that the average troop level during
counterinsurgency campaigns in permissive environments was 2 soldiers per 1,000 residents,
while for non-permissive environments it was 13 soldiers per 1,000 residents.[29] Somalia is
92 December 2013
only a permissive environment in certain places, so as a very conservative estimate, 7 soldiers

for every 1,000 residents is necessary. The CIA estimates that the Somali population is
currently about 10.2 million people; it is unclear if that number includes Somaliland’s 3.5
million people,[30] but we will subtract that from the number as Somaliland generally does a
good job of providing its own security. For 6.7 million people, then, the country requires
about 47,000 troops.
As of June 2013, AMISOM was at full troop strength with just under 18,000 soldiers in the
country,[31] though the African Union wishes to bump that number up to about 24,000.[32]
Diplomats estimate that Ethiopia has about 8,000 soldiers inside Somalia, though no one
knows the number for sure.[33] And it is difficult to determine how many troops currently
serve in the Somali National Army; there are “theoretically” 10,000, though the likely number
is far lower.[34] There are also a number of allied militias whose numbers are similarly vague:
in early 2010, U.S. intelligence officials estimated Ras Kamboni had between 500 and 1,000
fighters, and in 2012 a Stanford University project estimated that Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama had
around 2,000 fighters.[35] Numbers for the various other militias are even more difficult to
find.
Whatever the actual force levels at the coalition’s disposal, they are too few for AMISOM to
continue its push against al-Shabaab. And in some ways the numbers are irrelevant as al-
Shabaab is no longer interested in testing AMISOM in a conventional battle for superiority, as
evidenced by the group’s tactical decision over the last two years. When the KDF advanced
into Kismayo in late 2012 it proceeded slowly, and its eventual final push featured a night-time
amphibious assault spearheaded by Special Forces troops with Somali security forces bearing
down from the interior.[36] But resistance was surprisingly light; al-Shabaab had abandoned
the city, its final major stronghold and biggest source of funding, practically without offering
serious resistance.[37]
Al-Shabaab’s Kismayo withdrawal reflected the same decision the group made one year earlier
in Mogadishu, suddenly withdrawing from a city for which it had battled for years.[38] Both
choices were strategic decisions to avoid a devastating confrontation with a suddenly robust,
reinvigorated AMISOM force that possessed far superior conventional military capabilities.
After the fall of Kismayo, an al-Shabaab commander said as much: “We got orders from our
superiors to withdraw from the city... this is part of broader military tactics we have set for the
enemy."[39]
The “broader military tactics” to which the commander was alluding are guerrilla tactics.
According to several reports, the group had been planning to switch to an insurgency strategy
for more than a year at the time of the Kismayo withdrawal,[40] and abandoning fixed
positions in the cities was in keeping with their new strategy. And it was not just the major
cities that al-Shabaab abandoned; it declined to defend nearly all areas it held in the face of
approaching troops.[41]
93 December 2013
An al-Shabaab commander, Sheikh Mohamed Ibrahim, articulated the strategy further when
speaking of the group’s withdrawal from Mogadishu: “Now we are saving money, while the
enemy pays more and more to secure land it seized, recruit new soldiers, pay for services. Do
you think really they can continue like that forever? Already we are in Mogadishu every night,
carrying out attacks.”[42] There is a self-serving element to his statement as al-Shabaab did not
want to appear weak after its withdrawal from Mogadishu, but it is also an articulation of
classic insurgency strategy. Ibrahim’s words echo Robert Taber’s arresting metaphor for an
insurgent:
The guerrilla fights the war of the flea. The flea bites, hops, and bites again,
nimbly avoiding the foot that would crush him. He does not seek to kill his enemy
at a blow, but to bleed him and feed on him, to plague and bedevil him, to keep
him from resting and to destroy his nerve and morale.[43]
There is a further complication for AMISOM. It takes forces trained in counterinsurgency and
with a different mindset from the conventional warfighter’s, a certain “flair for dealing with
civilians,” to be effective against an insurgency.[44] The U.S. Marine Corps believed so strongly
in the necessity of training troops specifically for fighting insurgents that its Small Wars
Manual devotes an entire chapter to the subject.[45]
Without such training, the results can be damaging indeed. The Nigerian army is currently
having extreme difficulty suppressing Boko Haram in the northern parts of the country, in
part because its soldiers are untrained in counterinsurgency tactics.[46] President George W.
Bush’s administration focused on building a U.S. force designed for conventional conflict,
which left it ill-equipped to go about necessary counterinsurgency activities in Iraq and
Afghanistan, and contributed to the Iraqi population turning against the American presence.
[47] And in the war that haunts the United States still, Vietnam, part of the blame for the loss
has been pinned on the fact that U.S. servicemen were untrained in counterinsurgency tactics.
[48]
The bulk of the troops trying to suppress al-Shabaab have no training in the specific skill set
necessary to succeed in this new tactical environment. Kenya’s elite forces in Somalia, the
Rangers and Special Forces, have had some counterinsurgency training from the British and
Americans.[49] Yet the rest of Kenya’s forces have not. In fact, one KDF soldier offered to a
journalist the following worrisome analysis for fighting insurgents: “In guerrilla warfare you
don't need training…You just need to know how to shoot and duck."[50] And one of Kenya’s
allies in the current fight, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, publicly questioned whether
the Kenyan military was prepared for guerrilla fighting.[51]
The records of the other security forces that make up the coalition are mixed, but none are
crack counterinsurgent forces. Ethiopia has fought a number of domestic guerrilla movements
in its Oromia, Afar, and Ogaden regions,[52] but failed to quell the Shabaab-led insurgency
94 December 2013
that began in 2006 after the Ethiopian National Defense Force invaded the country, resulting
in them ultimately being driven out.[53] The Ugandan army has experience fighting
insurgents in the north of its own country, but its actions there have been stained by credible
allegations of human rights abuses, and it remains feared and disliked by some Ugandans in
those areas.[54]
And Somalia’s national security forces have a whole host of problems that make them
unsuitable for a counterinsurgency campaign, not least because they are largely composed of
“groups of untrained young men” used to the power a weapon brings.[55] Many of these
youths may well be proficient asymmetric fighters as Somalia has for decades been a harsh
training ground in such types of combat. Yet they lack the necessary discipline and regard for
the protection of civilians that is critical for successful counterinsurgency, and already have
been credibly accused of a range of human rights’ abuses.
Human Rights Watch has issued several reports that are cause for serious concern in this
respect, including one in March 2013 concerning the plight of IDPs in Somalia:
Members of displaced communities in Mogadishu faced serious human rights

abuses including rape, beatings, ethnic discrimination, restricted access to food
and shelter, restrictions on movement, and reprisals when they dared to protest
their mistreatment. The most serious abuses were committed by various militias
and security forces, often affiliated with the government.[56]
The BBC documented abuse in IDP camps as well, reporting that 1,700 women were raped in
2012 in the camps, and quoted a U.N. estimate that “men in uniform” perpetrated 70% of the
assaults.[57]
Human Rights Watch has also reported on “summary executions and torture” inflicted by pro-
government militias in Beletwayne and Baidoa,[58] and in December 2012 urged Kenyan
authorities not to repatriate Somali refugees to liberated areas because of “ongoing fighting
and abuses against civilians in areas controlled by Kenyan forces and allied militias.”[59]
Several cases of coalition abuse against civilians were egregious enough to spark an
international outcry. One case, in January 2013, is particularly concerning as it suggests the
government tried to cover up a crime committed by government security forces and then
engaged in reprisals against those who reported the abuse. A woman who reported being
raped by members of the Somali security forces was charged along with several others for
“insulting a government body,” among other charges.[60] The charges against her were
eventually dropped, though the journalist involved in the case remained in jail for months
afterwards.[61]
In April 2013, President Mohamud in a speech to police cadets in Mogadishu admitted for the
first time that Somali security forces had engaged in rapes against civilians—he went on to say
95 December 2013
that security forces who rape and rob Somalis need to be fought the same as al-Shabaab.[62] It
was an important and helpful step by the president, and will hopefully serve as a credible
warning that mistreatment of civilians will not be tolerated. But the human rights abuses
highlight the broader issues of poor discipline that make the Somali security forces thoroughly
ill-equipped to help AMISOM dislodge al-Shabaab insurgents from its safe havens.
The international community is aware of the urgent need to train Somalia’s indigenous
security forces, and in fact have been working on it for years—Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, and
the European Union have all spent time trying to whip various Somali National Army and
militia forces into shape. But most of the training appears to be for fundamentals [63] and not
the more sophisticated counterinsurgency training that is necessary. International donors are
designating funds for police and other security force training,[64] which is positive, but much
more will be required.
AMISOM and the SFG are thus caught on the horns of a nasty dilemma: allowing al-Shabaab
to continue unmolested in its safe havens means the group will be able to continue to marshal
its strength to fight its enemies, as well as plan the sorts of terror attacks it launched at
Westgate. But restarting the offensive will leave AMISOM too thinly stretched in the areas it
has already liberated. Furthermore, chasing Shabaab into the heavy forests of Lower Jubba, or
the mountains of Galgala, will mean AMISOM’s conventional military superiority will be
largely neutralized, allowing Shabaab to fight on a more or less equal footing, a classic guerrilla
strategy.
AMISOM needs, then, to find a way to keep the terrorists off-balance but avoid committing
troops who are untrained for this sort of combat and who will get chewed up. It should
conduct short, sharp strikes by Kenya’s elite units who are trained in asymmetric warfare [65]
—UAV strikes could also help, though the daunting terrain may make them less effective.
Reliable and accurate intelligence will be critical, so AMISOM should be looking to its Somali
counterparts to develop strong sources among the local communities. Meanwhile, the
international community should redouble its efforts to train Somali security forces, as
bringing in even more foreign troops to address the troop level shortfalls runs the risk of
antagonizing Somalis.
Ultimately, the al-Shabaab problem is a political one that will require a political solution. Until
there is a government in Somalia that can prove to Somalis it is their best hope for prosperity
and stability, Shabaab will be able to garner some level of support from among the population,
despite its general unpopularity. Yet building a state is a long-term project, and the immediate
challenge of al-Shabaab’s sanctuaries in Somalia remains, and it requires a smart
counterinsurgency approach.
As U.S. Representative Tom Cotton recently remarked in a speech about al-Qaeda, “When you
have to worry about personal security, you barely have time to plan a meal, much less plan and
execute a mass attack.”[66] Al-Shabaab, safe in its sanctuaries, had the time to plan a
sophisticated and, by the evil metrics terrorists use, extraordinarily successful attack in
96 December 2013
Nairobi. AMISOM and the rest of the international community must devise a way to again
pursue al-Shabaab, not only to give the SFG more time for state-building, but also to deny al-
Shabaab the safe haven it needs to plot such horrors as we witnessed recently in Nairobi.
About the Author: Josh Meservey recently joined the Africa Center at the Atlantic Council as
the Assistant Director. He is co-author, with James Forest and Graham Turbiville, of a
monograph on the al-Shabaab insurgency to be published by the U.S. Joint Special Operations
University. Sections of this article have been adapted from the forthcoming monograph.
Notes
[1] “61 Still Missing from Kenya Mall Attack.” Voice of America, September 26, 2013. http://www.voanews.com/content/sixty-one-still-
missing-from-kenya-mall-attack/1757568.html, and Pearson, Michael, Zain Verjee, and Nima Elbagir. “Kenyan Police Vow to ‘Finish and
Punish’ Westgate Mall Terrorists.” CNN, September 24, 2013. http://edition.cnn.com/2013/09/23/world/africa/kenya-mall-attack/index.html?
hpt=hp_t1.
[2] Menkhaus, Ken. “What The Deadly Attack On A Kenya Mall Was Really About.” ThinkProgress, September 22, 2013. http://
thinkprogress.org/security/2013/09/22/2662191/deadly-attack-kenya-mall-sign-desperation/.
[3] Zimmerman, Katherine. “We Are Losing Fight Against al-Shabaab.” CNN World, September 23, 2013. http://
globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2013/09/23/we-are-losing-fight-against-al-shabaab/.
[4] The “coalition” as used in this article refers to all of the different military forces fighting al-Shabaab: AMISOM, the Ethiopian National
Defense Force, Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama, Ras Kamboni, Somali National Army, and other militias and various armed groups.
[5] Guled, Abdi. “Former Somali Militants Recall Cruelty, Death.” Readingeagle.com, July 11, 2012. http://readingeagle.com/article.aspx?
id=398400#.UYs27YXIM7A, and AS Defector Series Report 6: Reasons for Defection or Escape. Native Prospector: East Bridge. Navanti Group,
September 6, 2012, p. 2.
[6] “Al-Shabaab Militants Defecting to Somali Side.” The Daily Star, June 16, 2012. http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/
Jun-16/177051-al-shabaab-militants-defecting-to-somali-side.ashx#axzz20L6tthFR, and “Can Somalia’s Cheap Peacekeeping Defeat al-
Shabab?” BBC News Africa, June 11, 2012. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18392212.
[7] Al-Shabaab Defector Series Report 5: Communications and Media Access. Native Prospector: East Bridge. Navanti Group, August 29, 2012,
p. 5.
[8] Mohamed, Mahmoud. “Al-Shabaab Beleaguered with Deep Internal Disputes.” Sabahi, March 26, 2012. http://sabahionline.com/en_GB/
articles/hoa/articles/features/2012/03/26/feature-01.
[9] “Somalia: Rifts Between Al Shabab Fighters Spreads to Hudur.” AllAfrica, June 22, 2013. http://allafrica.com/stories/201306220198.html?
aa_source=slideout, and “Somalia: Al Shabaab Dispute Turns Violent, Factions Emerge.” Garoweonline, June 21, 2013. http://
www.garoweonline.com/artman2/publish/Somalia_27/Somalia_Al_Shabaab_dispute_turns_violent_factions_emerge.shtml, See also
“Somalia’s al-Shabab Militants in ‘Deadly Feud’.” BBC News, June 20, 2013. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-22988404.
[10] “Al-Shabaab Kill Two of Their Own Chiefs.” Daily Nation, June 30, 2013. http://www.nation.co.ke/News/africa/Al-Shabaab-kill-two-of-
their-own-chiefs/-/1066/1899520/-/item/0/-/s1bediz/-/index.html, and “Somali Forces Arrest Islamist Leader in Mogadishu.” The Daily Star,
June 30, 2013. http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jun-30/222047-somali-forces-arrest-islamist-leader-in-
mogadishu.ashx#axzz2YqlZ5IfS.
[11] Kulish, Nicholas. “American Jihadist Is Believed to Have Been Killed by His Former Allies in Somalia.” The New York Times, September
12, 2013. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/13/world/africa/american-jihadist-is-believed-killed-by-ex-allies-in-somalia.html?_r=1&.
[12] Williams, Paul D. “The African Union Mission in Somalia and Civilian Protection Challenges.” Stability: International Journal of Security
& Development 2, no. 2 (2013): 1–17. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.5334/sta.bz, p. 3.
[13] Jones, Seth G. “What Went Wrong in Afghanistan? Allowing a Sanctuary in Pakistan.” The RAND Blog, March 5, 2013. http://
www.rand.org/blog/2013/03/what-went-wrong-in-afghanistan-allowing-a-sanctuary.html, and Snepp, Frank. “The Vietnam Syndrome.” Los
Angeles Times, May 5, 2013. http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-snepp-lessons-of-vietnam-20130505,0,5276212.story
[14] Aynte, Abdi. “Al-Shabaab and Post-transition Somalia.” African Arguments, September 3, 2012. http://africanarguments.org/2012/09/03/
al-shabaab-and-post-transition-somalia-by-abdi-aynte/.
[15] Tareke, Gebru. The Ethiopian Revolution: War in the Horn of Africa. The Yale Library of Military History. New Haven: Yale University
Press, 2009, p. 48.
[16] Sollom, Lt. Col. A. H. “Nowhere Yet Everywhere.” In Modern Guerrilla Warfare: Fighting Communist Guerrilla Movements, 1941-1961,
edited by Franklin Mark Osanka, 15–24. New York: The Free Press of Glencoe, 1962, p. 19.
[17] U.S. Marine Corps Small Wars Manual. New York, NY: Cosimo Reports, 2010, pp. 6 - 3.
97 December 2013
[18] Dickinson, Elizabeth. “Rumble in the Jungle: The Changing Strategy of FARC.” L’Occidentale, July 8, 2011. http://www.loccidentale.it/
node/108486.
[19] Nagl, John A. Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife: Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaya and Vietnam. Paperback ed. Chicago: University
of Chicago Press, 2005, p. 69.
[20] King, Laura. “Fighting Erupts in Afghanistan’s Tora Bora Mountains Between NATO, Insurgent Forces.” Los Angeles Times, December 30,
2010. http://articles.latimes.com/2010/dec/30/world/la-fg-afghanistan-tora-bora-20101230.
[21] Boot, Max. The Savage Wars of Peace: Small Wars and the Rise of American Power. 1st pbk. ed. New York: Basic Books, 2003, pp. 297, 240
- 252.
[22] Aynte, “Al-Shabaab and Post-transition Somalia,” and “Somalis Flee as Troops Advance Towards Islamist Bastion.” Google, September 18,
2012. http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5guGQPbkAR8nGoUa-eq3QwjSpb-qw?
docId=CNG.a15f80d65332895b2c4e4b98a68f8426.141.
[23] Boswell, Alan, and Abdi Ibrahim. “East Africa Debates What Happens to Southern Somalia If Al Shabab Is Routed.” McClatchy, August
14, 2012. http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/08/14/162259/east-africa-debates-what-happens.html.
[24] “Shabaab Bolster Northern ‘Tora Bora’ Base.” News24, October 23, 2012. http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/Shabaab-bolster-
northern-Tora-Bora-base-20121023, and Joselow, Gabe. “Puntland Instability Underscores Somali Militants’ Staying Power.” Voice of America,
December 8, 2012. http://www.voanews.com/content/insecurity-in-puntland-underscores-al-shabab-staying-power/1561164.html. See also
Aynte, “Al-Shabaab and Post-transition Somalia.”
[25] “Al Shabaab’s Retreat to the Al Madow Mountains.” Stratfor Global Intelligence, n.d.
[26] Pelton, Robert Young. “Al-Shabaab Fighters on the Run.” SomaliaReport, July 1, 2012. http://www.somaliareport.com/index.php/post/
2472, and “Somalia: ‘Al-Shabab Weapons Seized in Puntland’.” BBC News Africa, October 19, 2012. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-
africa-20003253.
[27] Somali, Ahmed, Ahmed Abdi, and Mohamed Ahmed. “Militia Seizes Control of Puntland Region.” SomaliaReport, November 5, 2011.
http://www.somaliareport.com/index.php/post/721. Shabaab’s Galgala militia was originally headed by Mohamed Said Atam, but he was
replaced by Kilwe. Atam is now believed to be operating in the South. See Al-Shabaab Organizational and Leadership Structure. Native
Prospector: East Bridge. Navanti Group, May 16, 2012, p. 9. See also AFP (October 23, 2012).
[28] Somali, Abdi and Ahmed, “Militia Seizes Control of Puntland Region.” See also “Somalia’s al-Shabab Targets Puntland Military.” BBC
News, December 5, 2012. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20614050, and Pelton, Robert Young, Sucaad Mire, and Mohamed
Nuxurkey. “Atom Militia Declares Allegiance to Shabaab.” SomaliaReport, February 25, 2012. http://www.somaliareport.com/index.php/post/
2915.
[29] The Beginner’s Guide to Nation-Building. Santa Monica, CA: RAND National Security Research Division, 2007, p. 41.
[30] “Somalia.” CIA - The World Factbook, May 7, 2013. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/so.html. See also
“Somaliland.” Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization, March 25, 2008. http://www.unpo.org/members/7916.
[31] Williams, Paul D. “The African Union Mission in Somalia and Civilian Protection Challenges”, op. cit, p. 2.
[32] “African Union Calls for More African Troops in Somalia.” Reuters, October 12, 2013. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/12/us-
somalia-amisom-idUSBRE99B02K20131012.
[33] Maasho, Aaron. “Ethiopian Troops Quit Somali City, but no Full Withdrawal Planned.” Reuters, July 22, 2013. http://www.reuters.com/
article/2013/07/22/us-ethiopia-somalia-idUSBRE96L0HX20130722.
[34] Backhaus, Anne, and Johannes Korge. “German Soldiers Help Train Somali Soldiers at Camp in Uganda.” Spiegel Online, October 22,
2012. http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/german-soldiers-help-train-somali-soldiers-at-camp-in-uganda-a-861885.html.
[35] Roggio, Bill. “Shabaab Absorbs Southern Islamist Group, Splits Hizbul Islam.” The Long War Journal, February 1, 2010. http://
www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/02/shabaab_absorbs_sout.php. See also “Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama.” Stanford University: Mapping
Militant Organizations, July 18, 2012. http://www.stanford.edu/group/mappingmilitants/cgi-bin/groups/view/109#cite30.
[36] Gisesa, Nyambega. “Licensed to Kill: The World of Kenya’s Elite Forces.” Sunday Nation, December 18, 2012. http://www.nation.co.ke/
Features/DN2/The-world-of-Kenyas-elite-forces/-/957860/1645208/-/item/2/-/ndyuqj/-/index.html, and “Somalia: Al Shabaab Militants
Abandon Kismayo After African Union Attack.” GlobalPost, September 29, 2012. http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/africa/
somalia/120929/somalia-al-shabaab-militants-abandon-kismayo-after-au-attack.
[37] Guled, Abdi. “After Kenyan Attack, Somali Militants Abandon City.” Yahoo! News, September 29, 2012. http://news.yahoo.com/kenyan-
attack-somali-militants-abandon-city-091910473.html.
[38] Pflanz, Mike. “Al-Shabaab Rebels Withdraw from Somali Capital.” The Telegraph, August 6, 2011. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/
worldnews/africaandindianocean/somalia/8685953/Al-Shabaab-rebels-withdraw-from-Somali-capital.html.
[39] “Somalia Islamists Abandon Kismayo Amid AU Attack.” BBC News Africa, September 29, 2012. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-
africa-19769058.
[40] Verini, James. “The Last Stand of Somalia’s Jihad.” Foreign Policy, December 17, 2012. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/12/17/
the_last_stand_of_somalias_jihad. See also Aynte, “Al-Shabaab and Post-transition Somalia,” and Marchal, Roland. “History Repeats Itself in
Somalia.” NewStatesman, August 20, 2012. http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/world-affairs/2012/08/history-repeats-itself-somalia.
98 December 2013
[41] Pelton, Robert Young. “Liberation of Merka Has Historical Implications.” SomaliaReport, August 27, 2012. http://
www.somaliareport.com/index.php/post/3592/Liberation_of_Merka_Has_Historical_Implications, and Aynte, “Al-Shabaab and Post-
transition Somalia.”
[42] Abdinor, Abdiaziz, and Mike Pflanz. “In Somalia, Optimism Rises.” The Christian Science Monitor, August 18, 2012. http://
www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2012/0818/In-Somalia-optimism-rises.
[43] Taber, Robert. War of the Flea: The Classic Study of Guerrilla Warfare. Washington, D.C: Brassey’s, 2002, pp. 49-50.
[44] Boot, Max. The Savage Wars of Peace: Small Wars and the Rise of American Power, op. cit., p. 299.
[45] U.S. Marine Corps Small Wars Manual, op. cit., chapter 4.
[46] “A Threat to the Entire Country.” The Economist, October 29, 2012.
[47] The Beginner’s Guide to Nation-Building, op cit,; and Gordon, Michael R., and Bernard E. Trainor. Cobra II: The Inside Story of the
Invasion and Occupation of Iraq. 1st Vintage Books ed. New York: Vintage Books, 2007, p. 567.
[48] Boot, Max. The Savage Wars of Peace: Small Wars and the Rise of American Power, op. cit., p. 299.
[49] Gisesa, Nyambega. “Licensed to Kill: The World of Kenya’s Elite Forces”, op. cit.
[50] Verini, James. “The Last Stand of Somalia’s Jihad”, op. cit.
[51] Boswell, Alan. “WikiLeaks: U.S. Warned Kenya Against Invading Somalia.” McClatchy, November 18, 2011. http://
www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/11/18/130739/wikileaks-us-warned-kenya-against.html.
[52] “World Armies>Ethiopia.” Jane’s World Armies, November 30, 2012.
[53] “Somalia and the Shabab: It’s Not over Yet.” The Economist, October 6, 2012. http://www.economist.com/node/21564258.
[54] Hopwood, Julian. We Can’t Be Sure Who Killed Us: Memory and Memorialization in Post-conflict Northern Uganda. International Center
for Transitional Justice, February 2011. http://ictj.org/publication/we-can%E2%80%99t-be-sure-who-killed-us-memory-and-
memorialization-post-conflict-northern-uganda, pp. 6, 14.
[55] Gatehouse, Gabriel. “Hundreds of Women Raped in Somali Camps for Displaced.” BBC News, April 10, 2013. http://www.bbc.co.uk/
news/world-africa-22100946.
[56] Hostages of the Gatekeepers: Abuses Against Internally Displaced in Mogadishu, Somalia. Human Rights Watch, March 2013. http://
www.hrw.org/reports/2013/03/28/hostages-gatekeepers-0, pp. 3 - 4.
[57] Gatehouse, “Hundreds of Women Raped in Somali Camps for Displaced.”
[58] “Somalia: Pro-Government Militias Executing Civilians.” Human Rights Watch, March 28, 2012. http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/03/28/
somalia-pro-government-militias-executing-civilians.
[59] “Kenya: Somalia Unsafe for Refugees to Return.” Human Rights Watch, March 30, 2012. http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/03/30/kenya-
somalia-unsafe-refugees-return.
[60] “Somalia: Anger over Woman Charged After Alleging Rape.” BBC News Africa, January 30, 2013. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-
africa-21259395.
[61] “Somali Woman Cleared in ‘False Rape’ Case.” BBC News Africa, March 3, 2013. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21647203.
[62] Som, Maalik. “Somalia President Admits Rapes By Security Forces.” AllAfrica, April 10, 2013. http://allafrica.com/stories/
201304100672.html?aa_source=slideout.
[63] For a look at the EU’s training efforts, see Anne Backhaus and Johannes Korge, “German Soldiers Help Train Somali Soldiers at Camp in
Uganda,” as well as “EU Day Celebrated in Somalia-EUTM Somalia in Mogadishu: A Milestone/The New Era.” European Union, May 15,
2013. http://www.consilium.europa.eu/eeas/security-defence/eu-operations/eu-somalia-training-mission/news-in-brief?lang=en. For
reference to Ethiopia’s training of Somali forces, see “Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama.” For Uganda’s: Hatcher, Jessica. “Somalia’s Young Army Recruits
Face Uphill Battle for Credibility.” The Guardian, April 19, 2013. http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2013/apr/19/somalia-army-
uphill-battle-credibility. For Kenya’s: James Verini, “The Last Stand of Somalia’s Jihad”, op. cit.
[64] Hutton, Robert. “U.K. Pledges $280 Million of Aid to Somalia for Arms, Food.” Bloomberg, May 7, 2013. http://www.bloomberg.com/
news/2013-05-07/u-k-pledges-280-million-of-aid-to-somalia-for-arms-food.html. See also “EU Pledges 44 Million Euros Aid at Somalia
Conference.” Africa Review, May 7, 2013. http://www.africareview.com/News/EU-pledges-44-million-euros-aid-at-Somalia-conference/-/
979180/1845018/-/aymmib/-/index.html.
[65] Gisesa, Nyambega.“Licensed to Kill: The World of Kenya’s Elite Forces”, op. cit.
[66] “September 10, 2013: Remarks to the American Enterprise Institute | Congressman Tom Cotton.” Accessed September 27, 2013. http://
cotton.house.gov/media-center/speeches/al-qaeda-today.
99 December 2013
Rethinking International Counterterrorism Assistance to the

Greater Horn of Africa: Toward a Regional Risk Reduction Strategy
by Matthew Schwartz, Liat Shetret, and Alistair Millar
Abstract
The Horn of Africa has long been a recipient of foreign security assistance, with significant funds
increasingly devoted to supporting subregional civilian-oriented counterterrorism efforts over the
past decade. Despite efforts to better coordinate delivery, counterterrorism programming in the
subregion generally remains fragmented, short-term, and siloed in implementation. This article
argues that it is time to rethink the international community’s approach to counterterrorism
assistance to the Horn of Africa and calls for a cohesive regional approach that not only bridges
the gap between security and development, but also the gap between counterterrorism and
human security. It emphasizes that the international community must not only better coordinate
existing streams of counterterrorism assistance to the region, but also rethink how this assistance
is designed and the ways it can be delivered to complement broader subregional development and
security agendas. After a brief introduction to international counterterrorism assistance to the
Horn of Africa, the article examines linkages across three thematic streams of programming being
delivered to the subregion: anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism;
criminal justice capacity building assistance to counter terrorism; and, countering violent
extremism. This discussion will highlight the need for a regional risk reduction strategy for the
Horn of Africa that not only builds on the interplay of different streams of counterterrorism
assistance, but on synergies across broader subregional development and security agendas as well.
Keywords: anti-money laundering, capacity building, countering the financing of terrorism,

countering violent extremism, criminal justice, counterterrorism, East Africa, Horn of Africa,
human security
Introduction
As communities in the Horn of Africa struggle to overcome a range of deeply complex
development and security challenges, persistent threats posed by violent extremism and
transnational terrorism remain serious national security concerns both for the subregion and
the international community. Though the subregion has long been a recipient of foreign
security assistance, international support for subregional counterterrorism efforts has become
increasingly civilian-oriented over the past several years. While the shift toward civilian-
oriented counterterrorism can be credited with a number of significant gains, its long-term
impact on reducing terrorism-related risks in the subregion remains to be seen.
As the nature, scope and extent of civilian counterterrorism assistance to the greater Horn of
Africa has become increasingly diverse, the time is ripe to reflect on where counterterrorism
fits in the long view of the development and security challenges of the subregion. It is time to
100 December 2013

rethink the international community’s approach to counterterrorism assistance to the Horn of

Africa. This article offers a starting point for this discussion. A cohesive regional approach that
not only bridges the gap between security and development, but also the gap between
counterterrorism and human security, is essential to sustainably reduce terrorism-related risks
in the subregion. The international community must not only better coordinate existing
streams of counterterrorism assistance to the region, but also rethink how this assistance is
designed and the ways it can be delivered to complement broader national and subregional
development and security agendas.
Our discussion begins with a brief introduction to international counterterrorism assistance

in the Horn of Africa. This will be followed by a more in-depth exploration of the linkages
across three thematic streams of counterterrorism programming being delivered in the greater
subregion:
• anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism;
• criminal justice capacity building assistance to counter terrorism; and,
• countering violent extremism.
Greater integration across these streams of assistance, already being delivered by a multiplicity
of international actors is an important first step to strengthening national resilience to
terrorism-related risks in the subregion. However, international counterterrorism assistance
alone cannot sustainably address the challenges posed by terrorism in the Horn of Africa.
Aligning this assistance with mutually reinforcing local, national, and regional development
and security efforts is essential for long-term impact. Each thematic discussion offers a
sampling of constructive ideas for adapting existing programming priorities for greater
alignment with local development and security objectives. Following the conclusion of these
thematic discussions, we highlight a selection of widely-supported, but often overlooked
practices for donor governments delivering civilian counterterrorism assistance in the greater
Horn of Africa subregion.
It is impossible to cover the depth and complexity of the development-security nexus of the
greater Horn of Africa in the form of a single journal article. Accounting for these
complexities in accordance with the local contexts is essential for effective development and
security cooperation, and we encourage readers to refer to our extensive footnotes for
additional information and resources on issues we may have been unable to address more
extensively in the text.
Background
The greater Horn of Africa has made a number of promising economic and political gains in
recent years.[1] Several countries have been riding a wave of rapid economic growth, and
despite lingering conflict, South Sudan secured independence following a successful public
101 December 2013

referendum in 2011, and a new Federal Government of Somalia has been inaugurated with
overwhelming support from the international community. Nevertheless, the subregion faces
an array of ongoing challenges stemming from underdevelopment, weak governance,
widespread poverty, intermittent violent conflict, and other sources of human insecurity,
including transnational terrorism and organized crime. Pressures to decisively address these
transnational terrorist and criminal threats are testing the limits of national capabilities and
resilience. Governments are often unable to meet the basic needs of local communities, let
alone the challenges posed by complex transnational terrorist threats.
How can this cycle be broken? Part of the solution is already in place. The greater Horn of
Africa has been a key geographic focus of bilateral and multilateral counterterrorism-related
assistance since the 1990s.[2] This is not surprising given the transnational security risks
emanating from Somalia and Yemen, and long-held concerns over the danger posed by the al-
Qaida cells based around the greater subregion over the past two decades.[3] Particularly over
the last five years, international capacity building and technical assistance to the greater Horn
of Africa and elsewhere has increasingly focused on civilian counterterrorism assistance
activities. While at times articulated in the context of broader strategic frameworks, assistance
may end up ultimately being fragmented in implementation. Even when conceptualized to
achieve high-level strategic objectives, donor counterterrorism assistance can often get lost in
translation by the time it reaches the ground. Indeed, many counterterrorism projects are
designed with inadequate consideration of the sectoral capacity deficiencies of local
government institutions, or the complexity of society-state relationships, and have been largely
disconnected from broader development and security initiatives being undertaken across
local, national and regional contexts.
Though there have been some signs of improvement in the strategic coordination of such
programming, the field remains somewhat ad-hoc and short-term in scope. To address this
challenge, multilateral initiatives such as the Global Counterterrorism Forum (GCTF),
established in 2011, and its Horn of Africa Working Group under the leadership of the
European Union and Turkey, have been working to bring coherence to civilian
counterterrorism assistance efforts across the greater subregion.[4] However, strengthening
coordination of diverse counterterrorism initiatives is only half the battle. Aligning this
assistance to complement broader development and security agendas will be essential for
sustainably addressing threats posed by terrorism in the long term.
Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism

Despite the challenges confronting the subregion, a number of countries in the Horn of Africa
have been experiencing tremendous economic growth in recent years. Ethiopia, for example,
ranked the 12th fastest growing economy worldwide in 2012, outpacing economic
powerhouses like China and India, and was the 4th fastest in Africa with an average GDP
growth of 10.7 percent per year over the past decade.[5] However, the lack of a robust anti-
102 December 2013

money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) regulatory regime
may threaten to deter foreign investment and leave financial flows vulnerable to criminal
exploitation. In the context of the massive financial growth in the Ethiopian example, an
independent report by Global Financial Integrity estimates that the country lost over 11.7
billion dollars in illicit financial outflows over the last decade.[6] These assets, which might
have served in the further expansion of Ethiopia’s economic and human development
potential, have instead been redirected for purposes unknown. Indeed, portions could have
been funneled in support of international terrorism and criminal activities including a range
of illicit enterprises such as human trafficking rings or the financing of piracy in the Gulf of
Aden. These challenges are not unique to Ethiopia, and many countries in the subregion,
including Ethiopia, have made significant strides in strengthening their AML/CFT regimes
over the past few years.
Curbing criminal and terrorist access to financial support depends on the financial integrity of
all members of the international community. Strengthening national AML/CFT regimes, as
well as regional cooperation on AML/CFT throughout the Horn of Africa, has been a key area
of focus of international counterterrorism assistance to the subregion. Common AML/CFT
program activities can include a range of legislative and policy related technical assistance and
institutional capacity building projects—particularly the strengthening of national financial
intelligence units. A cross-section of international support, particularly from Denmark and
the United States, has served in enhancing platforms for subregional dialogue, awareness,
technical assistance and capacity for strengthening national and regional AML/CFT
infrastructure.[7]
Effective AML/CFT regulatory regimes also depend highly on the capacity of national
criminal justice systems and strong cross-border legal cooperation to properly investigate and
prosecute financial crime and prevent the financing of terrorism.[8] Due to the cross-border
nature and transnational risks posed by money laundering and terrorist financing, a multi-
sectoral regional approach is thus required to sustainably reduce the risk of illicit financial
flows in the subregion. Robust financial oversight and reporting standards and expansive
formal banking and revenue collection infrastructure provide the most advantageous
environment for the implementation of a comprehensive regulatory oversight regime.
However, the economic infrastructure and degree of financial inclusion across the subregion
varies widely between rural and urban markets and across national contexts. Local economic
activity for a vast majority of the subregion’s population is overwhelmingly cash-based, though
mobile money platforms are increasingly penetrating the region expanding financial access.
Ultimately, safeguarding the integrity of regional financial flows through regulatory and
monitoring mechanisms will have limited impact on reducing the risks associated with money
laundering and terrorist financing if not informed by a risk-based approach to AML/CFT, and
aligned with efforts to strengthen financial access and inclusion, for example, through:
103 December 2013

i) Supporting the development of national and regional guidance and good practices for the
implementation of Financial Action Task Force (FATF) standards in the context of cash-
based, low-income, and high-poverty economic contexts. There is a dearth of technical
guidance on AML/CFT regime development in the context of the subregion’s economic
and risk environment. The development of detailed and practical case studies and
guidance notes on implementing the FATF standards in the developmental and fragile
contexts of the Horn of Africa would be extremely beneficial for national authorities in
the subregion.[9]
ii) Facilitating dialogue and deepening a regional knowledge base on ways to strengthen
regulatory oversight without restricting financial access or compromising financial
inclusion. The heightened international pressure on the subregion and evidence of
growing internal momentum for stronger AML/CFT in some national contexts, must not
be at the expense of greater financial inclusion and poverty alleviation objectives.[10]
Support for national and regional dialogues on enhancing financial integrity in a way that
protects and economically empowers poor and marginalized populations can serve as the
basis for developing innovative locally-owned solutions to regulatory challenges.
iii) Exploring trade-based financial, value-transfer, and remittance corridors across the
greater subregion. While a baseline study of regulatory regimes and financial flows in the
context of AML/CFT has already been undertaken in Intergovernmental Authority on
Development (IGAD) member states by the IGAD Security Sector Program, a deeper
understanding of the risks related to informal financial flows in neighboring Tanzania
and Yemen would be useful for the delivery of targeted risk-based assistance and a more
effective strategic approach to AML/CFT in the subregion.[11]
Criminal Justice Capacity and Cooperation to Counter Terrorism

Strengthening cross-border legal cooperation, information sharing, and investigation capacity
has been a core component of civilian counterterrorism assistance to states in the greater Horn
of Africa. This focus can be attributed to the transnational nature of terrorist activity in the
subregion and revelations of ties between terrorist operatives in the Horn of Africa to attacks
abroad.[12] Recognizing the need for a common legal cooperation framework to bring
transnational criminals and terrorists to justice, the IGAD Council of Ministers approved
Conventions on Extradition and Mutual Legal Assistance (MLA) in 2009 to help serve as the
basis for cross-border criminal justice cooperation based on transparency, accountability, and
the rule of law. Though the implementation of extradition and MLA agreements continues to
be the focus of a number of international technical assistance agendas, effective legal
cooperation based on domestic legislation requires strong interagency coordination at the
national level and is subject to internal regulations, safeguards, and standard operating
procedures in each respective national jurisdiction.[13]
104 December 2013

In addition to the highly technical field of cross-border legal cooperation, international

counterterrorism assistance to the subregion has increasingly focused on enhancing criminal
justice capacities to counter terrorism ‘in accordance with the rule of law while protecting
human rights’. Isolated from national justice and police reform initiatives, the impact of these
efforts remains unclear. Though far from unique to the Horn of Africa, the pretext of
counterterrorism has been used in different contexts to persecute minority groups and
political opposition, silence critical voices in the media and civil society, and has served as the
basis of measures which have exacerbated the insecurity of vulnerable communities.[14] This
can add increased tension to already strained relationships between certain local
constituencies, their governments, and the broader national community that encompasses
them.
Often regardless of context, justice and security development assistance to the Horn of Africa
—as elsewhere—generally focuses on enhancing the security and capacity of governments
over the safety and empowerment of communities, and the same can be said of
counterterrorism assistance.[15] Yet, the strengthening of state enforcement and external
cooperation capacities as priorities of counterterrorism assistance, even in the context of
‘human rights’ and ‘rule of law’, are not substitutes for improved justice and policing for
populations in the greater subregion.[16] As suggested in the opening of the GCTF’s Rabat
Memorandum, effective criminal justice practices to counter terrorism “must be built on a
functional criminal justice system that is capable of handling ordinary criminal offenses while
protecting the human rights of the accused.”[17] Creating synergies between counterterrorism
programming and broader national justice and security development initiatives is essential for
building basic criminal justice capacity to address everyday challenges and institutional
competence to address new challenges as they arise.[18] There are a number of opportunities
to strengthen both core criminal justice service delivery, as well as enhance national
interagency capacity and coordination and regional cooperation to counter transnational
terrorism. The following ideas can help guide such an approach:
i) Exploring linkages between counterterrorism and justice and security development

needs. Capacities essential for an effective criminal justice system, such as evidence
gathering and forensics, standard operating procedures, case management, criminal
procedure, interagency and police-prosecution cooperation, management and
administration, as well as oversight and accountability mechanisms, are equally essential
for countering terrorism. Where these core capacities are weak, assistance may be better
delivered through broader support to national justice and security system development
initiatives.[19]
ii) Developing national and regional training capacity in human rights-compliant criminal
justice practices. Claims that investigation techniques grounded in human rights and the
rule of law are both strategically and tactically superior to coercive techniques are too
infrequently supported by concrete practical instruction.[20] Stronger long-term
partnerships should be made with states in the region to strengthen law enforcement
105 December 2013

training infrastructure capable of disseminating these practices, not only in the context of
countering terrorism, but as a core element of good policing for public security.
iii) Supporting community-police partnerships to address local security concerns, and

encouraging professional and accountable policing. Law enforcement capacity for
counterterrorism can be either strengthened or hindered on the basis of a community’s
relationship with local police forces. Supporting direct upstream community-police
partnerships can help enhance public safety, strengthen police accountability and
professionalism, and improve local perceptions of state legitimacy, providing a stronger
foundation for more effective national and subregional criminal justice cooperation.[21]
Countering Violent Extremism

The threats posed by al-Shabaab and al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and their
continued ability to attract recruits across borders have been significant factors behind the
CVE-focus of international counterterrorism programming in the greater subregion. A UN
report in July 2011 suggested that non-Somali Kenyan youth formed a particularly active role
within al-Shabaab.[22] There have since been increasing concerns that marginalized segments
of the subregion’s growing youth population could be particularly vulnerable to violent
extremism.[23] Reports have described how radical clerics and small circles of dedicated
followers lure local youths of poor marginalized communities by offering a sense of belonging,
a compelling world-view, and a small stipend (with the promise of more) to join al-Shabaab’s
cause by taking up arms in Somalia, abroad, or even closer to home.[24]
At the same time, terrorist groups in the subregion have become well-known for their use of
the internet and social networking platforms to effectively reach out to wider global audiences.
Following Kenya’s intervention in southern Somalia in late 2011, Al-Shabaab took the battle to
the world wide web, engaging in a drawn out war of words on Twitter with the Kenya Defence
Force spokesman.[25] Their latest Twitter account was shutdown in the immediate aftermath
of the September 2013 Westgate attack.[26] Anwar al Awlaki, former editor of AQAP’s
English-language periodical Inspire, whose extremist rhetoric was widely circulated among
radicals world-wide via the web, was based in Yemen for a number of years before being killed
by an American drone strike in 2011.[27] The savvy use of new media by extremist groups in
the subregion, if not a prime factor behind local terrorist recruitment, has figured prominently
in influencing the ideas of violent extremists and terrorists well beyond the greater Horn.[28]
International CVE and CVE-related assistance in the Horn of Africa is diverse in character,
often delivered through grassroots level programming in collaboration with civil society, and
in some cases, directly in partnership with local communities.[29] CVE programming at the
community level can be an extremely sensitive endeavor, and must be carefully tailored
according to the context in which being implemented. The dynamics of an individual’s
connection to their community, community perceptions of the state, and the nature of these
relationships in a broader socio-economic and political environment, are of particular
106 December 2013

relevance in the context of efforts to counter violent extremism.[30] The sometimes

contentious nature of community relations with national governments may impede the
development and implementation of CVE activities in certain subregional contexts.[31]
However, government capacity building is not an area to be neglected and there are
international assistance projects aimed at equipping local officials to, for example, better
respond to CVE challenges in a way that enhances their credibility and legitimacy among local
communities; as well as programs to support special detention programs aimed at disengaging
incarcerated violent extremists from their former cause.
The effectiveness of CVE programming in the Horn of Africa—as elsewhere—will depend on

the extent to which it is fit for purpose and tailored to context. It is not possible to attribute a
single set of ‘push’ or ‘pull’ factors to explain why certain individuals are attracted to violent
extremism and driven to engage in acts of terrorism.[32] Defining entire demographics by a
presumed vulnerability to violent extremism may risk securitizing already marginalized
communities rather than addressing potentially dramatic sources of community insecurity.
CVE-related programming may be best approached through needs-based community or civil
society programming designed to achieve CVE-objectives indirectly. The following ideas for
grassroots-level engagement can help inform preliminary steps toward such an approach in
certain contexts:
i) Frame interventions in partnership with communities in accordance with their

perceptions of insecurity. Mapping community perceptions of local sources of insecurity
can help inform the design of grassroots-level programming to address CVE-related
objectives tailored to local context.[33] Mapping studies should be undertaken by locally
credible researchers or by community members themselves using a mixture of methods
in a highly-localized setting within the specific community that will benefit from the
program.
ii) Facilitate trust-building, and joint training activities between communities, civil society
and local authorities. Facilitating direct community member-police officer collaboration
in the joint development of community safety strategies, or through joint community-
police training activities can serve in empowering community members and local
authorities as mutually accountable partners for the betterment of their shared
community.[34] When community-police relations are built on trust and mutual respect,
community members will have a greater willingness to cooperate and share information
with local officers for more effective crime and terrorism prevention.
iii) Support localized and high-impact civic education, empowerment, leadership, and
entrepreneurial initiatives for marginalized populations. While not directly related to
risks of violent extremism, many communities in the greater Horn of Africa face
conditions of acute deprivation and socio-political marginalization. Alleviating these
conditions through dynamic grassroots projects can help strengthen community
cohesion and resilience to a range of internal and external stresses, including violent
107 December 2013

extremism. Small grants to support credible local projects on civic engagement,

education, or entrepreneurial activities can have an enormous impact on a community’s
sense of empowerment, particularly contexts of fragility and marginalization.[35]
Toward a Regional Risk Reduction Strategy

The evolving complexity of development and security challenges in the Horn of Africa has led
to the elaboration and refinement of subregion-specific strategies meant to guide the delivery
of coordinated development and security assistance.[36] Indeed, some of these assistance
packages have come to incorporate specific civilian counterterrorism and CVE-oriented
objectives alongside or encompassed within broader assistance strategies. However, a rift
continues to exist between conceptualizing these relationships on paper and practically linking
them in program delivery. The following overarching principles, while not at all meant to be
comprehensive, should be taken into special consideration by donor governments providing
counterterrorism assistance to the greater subregion:
i) Set priorities, develop objectives and design programming in collaboration with local
partners in accordance with local context and local needs. ‘Promoting local ownership’
cannot be left until after program priorities have already been formulated. The most
crucial period for local partners to assert ownership over an initiative is during the
inception and design phases where core local stakeholders can directly influence the
terms and objectives of a program.
ii) Formulate whole-of-government approaches to assistance delivery in alignment with

goals defined by partners. Donor governments should work to ensure coordination
across different domestic agencies delivering international assistance in national and
regional contexts. The formulation of overarching national and regional strategies that
link integrated activity- and component-specific objectives under larger strategic goals
can help bring logical coherence to donor assistance. Intra- and inter-governmental
communication for coordinated assistance delivery in the field through country missions
across the subregion can serve to enhance the tactical coordination of assistance delivery,
and provide an important feedback loop to ensure strategic alignment under a common
regional perspective.
iii) Conduct more rigorous assessments and evaluations with the aim of building a stronger
regional community of practice. Context-specific needs assessments and program
evaluations are essential for measuring progress and identifying remaining gaps. This
information should be used to build a stronger regional community of practice and
knowledge-sharing for the delivery of more effective and targeted assistance partnerships
among local and international partners.
108 December 2013

Conclusion
This article highlighted a number of starting points for a critical reexamination of existing
counterterrorism assistance efforts to the Horn of Africa, and how they might be better
aligned for sustainable impact. If terrorism is a long-term challenge, then sustainable support
for long-term solutions is required to address it. The challenges posed by various
manifestations of terrorism in the greater Horn of Africa are deeply intertwined with those
related to good governance, economic development, and human security. As the nature, scope
and extent of civilian counterterrorism assistance to the greater Horn of Africa has become
increasingly diverse, the time is ripe to reflect on how counterterrorism fits in the long view of
the development and security challenges of the subregion
There have been a number of significant achievements in civilian counterterrorism assistance

to the Horn of Africa. To capitalize on these gains and contribute toward sustainably reducing
risks posed by terrorism in the long term, more must be done to ensure counterterrorism
assistance is aligned with broader efforts to address the complex development and security
needs of both governments and communities in the subregion. A regional risk reduction
strategy must deconstruct the conceptual barriers that have long siloed the counterterrorism,
human security, national security and development assistance agendas in the subregion. This
requires an approach that not only builds on the interplay of different streams of
counterterrorism assistance, but on synergies across the broader local, national, and
subregional development and security initiatives as well.
About the Authors:

Matthew Schwartz is an Analyst in the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation
(CGCC)’s New York office. He focuses on criminal justice, human rights and rule of law-related
issues in CGCC’s East Africa and global programming. Liat Shetret is CGCC’s New York Office
Director and Senior Analyst. She leads CGCC’s programming in Africa, and focuses on anti–
money laundering, countering the financing of terrorism, and law enforcement capacity building.
Alistair Millar is Founder and Executive Director of CGCC and non-resident Senior Fellow at
The George Washington University Homeland Security Policy Institute.
Notes
[1] In this policy brief, the greater Horn of Africa refers to Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) member states: Djibouti,
Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda; as well as Tanzania and Yemen.
[2] For general background reading on regional and international counterterrorism initiatives in the greater Horn of Africa, see: Peter
Kagwanja, “Counter-Terrorism in the Horn of Africa: New security frontiers, old strategies,” African Security Review 15, no. 3 (2006); Lauren
Ploch, “Countering Terrorism in East Africa: The U.S. Response,” Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report for Congress (CRS, 3 Nov 2010)
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/terror/R41473.pdf; David H. Shinn, “Walking the Line: U.S. Security Policy in East Africa and the Horn,” World
Politics Review (20 Feb 2013) http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/12722/walking-the-line-u-s-security-policy-in-east-africa-and-
the-horn.
[3] Clint Watts, Jacob Shapiro and Vahid Brown, “Al-Qaida's (Mis)Adventures in the Horn of Africa,” Harmony Project (West Point, NY:
United States Military Academy Combating Terrorism Center, 2007) http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/al-qaidas-misadventures-in-the-horn-
of-africa.
109 December 2013

[4] See: Global Counterterrorism Forum, Co-Chairs’ Summary of the Inaugural Meeting of the Horn of Africa Working Group (8-10 Feb
2012) http://www.thegctf.org/documents/10303/20542/Co-Chairs%27%20Summary+of+9-10+Feb+2012+Working+Group+Meeting+in
+Dar+es+Salaam.
[5] World Bank, “Ethiopia Economic Update – Laying the Foundation for Achieving Middle Income Status” (Addis Ababa, 18 June 2013)
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/06/18/ethiopia-economic-update-laying-the-foundation-for-achieving-middle-
income-status.
[6] Sarah Freitas, “Illegal Ethiopian Capital Flight Skyrocketed In 2009 To US$3.26 Billion” Financial Transparency Coalition (5 Dec 2011)
http://www.financialtransparency.org/2011/12/05/illegal-ethiopian-capital-flight-skyrocketed-in-2009-to-us3-26-billion/.
[7] For example, see: “EU and the US cooperation on countering the financing of terrorism in the Horn of Africa region,” press release of the
Danish Presidency of the EU, Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs (6 Aug 2012) http://usa.um.dk/en/news/newsdisplaypage/?
newsid=0f83adcf-b642-4db9-8db6-bcd1e03f03bd. Also see: GCTF, Co-Chair’s Summary of the Second Plenary Meeting of the Horn of Africa
Region Capacity-Building Working Group—Countering Terrorist Financing (5-6 March 2013) http://www.thegctf.org/documents/
10303/40363/Co-Chairs+Summary-Second+Working+Group+Meeting.
[8] See recommendations 30-31 and 36-40 of Financial Action Task Force (FATF), International Standards on Combating Money Laundering
and the Financing Of Terrorism & Proliferation: The FATF Recommendations (February 2013) http://www.fatf-gafi.org/media/fatf/
documents/recommendations/pdfs/FATF_Recommendations.pdf.
[9] Note that FATF’s guidance on “Anti-Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Measures and Financial Inclusion” (2013) offers useful
insight on the application of FATF recommendations in the context of financial inclusion in developing countries. This guidance is general in
scope, and gives less attention to the technical challenges of institutional regime development in heavily cash-based economies with limited
formal financial infrastructure.
[10] An instructive literature review undertaken by Andrew McDevitt at the Governance and Social Development Resource Centre’s
(GSDRC’s) Research Helpdesk suggested that “AML initiatives are seen as particularly inappropriate for preventing and detecting money
laundering in predominantly cash-based economies or in countries where reliance on parallel or informal transfer systems is the norm, as is
the case in many developing countries. They are also seen as unduly restrictive on financial service providers working with low-income
people, such as micro-finance institutions.” - Andrew McDevitt, “Helpdesk Research Report: Money Laundering and Poverty Reduction,”
GSDRC (4 Nov 2009) http://www.gsdrc.org/docs/open/HD625.pdf.
[11] See: Tu’emay Aregawi Desta and James Cockayne, eds. ISSP-CGCC Joint Baseline Study on Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the
Financing of Terrorism in the IGAD Subregion (New York and Addis Ababa, May 2012) http://www.globalct.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/
AML_Report.pdf.
[12] See: ‘Terrorism out of Somalia: a Q&A with Ken Menkhaus and Christopher Boucek, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (23
Sep 2010) http://carnegieendowment.org/2010/09/23/terrorism-out-of-somalia/wnc#reach; and, Watts, et. al., ‘Al-Qa’ida’s
(Mis)Adventures’ (2007).
[13] See: Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation and IGAD Security Sector Program, Fighting Terror Through Justice: Implementing
the IGAD Framework for Legal Cooperation Against Terrorism (New York and Addis Ababa, May 2012) http://www.globalct.org/wpcontent/
uploads/2012/06/TaskForce_Report_May20121.pdf. Note that while Djibouti and Ethiopia have ratified the conventions, neither party has
deposited declarations of readiness for entry into force.
[14] For example, see: George Kegoro, “The effects of counter-terrorism measures on human rights: the experience of East African countries,”
Understanding Terrorism in Africa: In search for an African Voice (Pretoria: Institute for Security Studies (ISS), 2007) pp. 51-57; Samual M.
Makinda, “The impact of the War on Terrorism on Governance and Human Rights in Sub-Saharan Africa,” Understanding Terrorism in
Africa: Building Bridges and Overcoming the Gaps, Wafula Okumu and Anneli Botha, eds. (Pretoria: ISS, 2008), pp. 32-35; Human Rights
Watch (HRW), Why Am I Still Here? The 2007 Horn of Africa Renditions and the Fate of those Still Missing (HRW, 2008), available at http://
www.hrw.org/reports/2008/09/30/why-am-i-still-here-0; and, Open Society Justice Initiative, Counterterrorism and Human Rights Abuses in
Kenya and Uganda: The World Cup Bombing and Beyond (Open Society Foundations (OSF), 2013) http://www.opensocietyfoundations.org/
sites/default/files/counterterrorism-human-rights-abuses-kenya-uganda-20130403.pdf.
[15] This point was highlighted at the report of international expert meeting on “The Politics of Practice: Security and Justice Programming
in FCAS [Fragile and Conflict-affected States],” hosted by the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) in November 2012, http://
www.odi.org.uk/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/events-documents/4948.pdf. Additionally, these issues are discussed at length in: OECD,
OECD DAC Handbook on Security System Reform: Supporting Security and Justice (OECD, 2007) http://www.oecd.org/development/
conflictandfragility/38406485.pdf.
[16] For rule of law- and justice- related indictors for states in the greater Horn of Africa, see: Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 2013 Ibrahim Index of
African Governance: Summary (Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 2013) http://www.moibrahimfoundation.org/downloads/2013/2013-IIAG-
summary-report.pdf. Note that ‘safety and rule of law’ is the only category that has been subject to measured decline since 2000. Also, see:
Transparency International, The East Africa Bribery Index 2013, (Kenya, 2013) http://www.tikenya.org/index.php/more-links/publications/
corruption-surveys/east-africa-bribery-index. Note that the highest aggregate bribery scores of public institutions across the East African
Community were accorded to the respective police forces of all five member countries. For country-specific examples on: Kenya, see, Patricia
Kameri Mbote and Migai Akech, Kenya Justice Sector and the Rule of Law: A review by AfriMAP and the Open Society Initiative for Eastern
Africa (OSF, 2011) http://www.ielrc.org/content/a1104.pdf; and, Amnesty International, ‘Police Reform in Kenya: A Drop in the Ocean
(London, 2013) http://www.amnesty.nl/sites/default/files/public/kenya_afr_32_001_2013.pdf; on Uganda, see, Human Rights Watch,
“’Letting the Big Fish Swim’ Failures to Prosecute High-Level Corruption in Uganda” (2013) http://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/
uganda1013_ForUpload_0.pdf; on Somalia, see, UK FCO, Human Rights and Democracy Report 2012, Section IX: Somalia (UK FCO, 2013)
110 December 2013

http://www.hrdreport.fco.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/2012-Human-Rights-and-Democracy.pdf; on South Sudan, see, Richard

Downie, “Building Police Institutions in Fragile States: Case Studies from Africa” (CSIS 2013) http://csis.org/files/publication/
130115_Downie_BuildPoliceInstitutions_web.pdf; on Yemen, see, Laila Al-Zwaini, “The Rule of Law in Yemen: Prospects and Challenges”
Rule of Law Quick Scan (HiiL, Sep 2012) http://www.hiil.org/data/sitemanagement/media/QuickScan_Yemen_191212_DEF.pdf.
[17] Global Counterterrorism Forum Criminal Justice Sector/Rule of Law Working Group, “The Rabat Memorandum on Good Practices for
Effective Counterterrorism Practice in the Criminal Justice Sector,” 24 May 2012, http://www.thegctf.org/documents/10162/19594/Rabat
+Memorandum+on+Good+Practices+for+Effective+Counterterrorism+Practice+in+the+Criminal+Justice+Sector.
[18] See: Matthew Schwartz, ‘Criminal Justice and Rule of Law Capacity Building to Counter Terrorism in Fragile Institutional Contexts:
Lessons From Development Cooperation’ (CGCC, Dec 2012) http://www.globalct.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/
MS_policybrief_1217.pdf.
[19] There is a consensus on the need to interlink mutually reinforcing streams of justice and security programming, see Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), OECD DAC Handbook on Security System Reform (2007).
[20] See, for example: Matthew Alexander, How to Break a Terrorist: The U.S. Interrogators Who Used Brains, Not Brutality, to Take Down the
Deadliest Man in Iraq (New York: Free Press, 2008); Ali Soufan, "My Tortured Decision". The New York Times (22 April 2009) http://
www.nytimes.com/2009/04/23/opinion/23soufan.html?_r=1&; and, Ali Soufan,"What Torture Never Told Us," The New York Times
(September 5, 2009) http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/opinion/06soufan.html. .
[21] For a general discussion on the importance of an upstream approach to community security, see: Saferworld, “Community Security:
Rethinking policy and strategy for modern security challenges” (Oct 2013) http://www.saferworld.org.uk/downloads/pubdocs/community-
security-policy-and-strategy.pdf. community policing, see: Lisa Denney and Sarah Jenkins ‘Securing Communities: the what and how of
community policing (ODI, Jul 2013) http://www.odi.org.uk/publications/7633-community-policing. For a recent case study on community
policing practices Ethiopia, see: Lisa Denney with Demelash Kassaye, “Securing communities for development: community policing in
Ethiopia's Amhara National Regional State” (ODI, Nov 2013) http://www.odi.org.uk/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-
files/8656.pdf. For greater insight on policing in the Horn of Africa, please refer to supra note 16.
[22] United Nations, Report of the Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea pursuant to Security Council resolution 1916 (2010) p. 149,
http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/2011/433.
[23] For example, see: Anneli Botha, “Assessing the vulnerability of Kenyan youths to radicalisation and extremism,” Institute for Security
Studies Paper 245 (Institute for Security Studies, Apr 2013) http://www.issafrica.org/uploads/Paper245.pdf; and, Africa Center for Strategic
Studies, “Preventing Youth Radicalization in East Africa,” Program Report (Kigali, 22-27 Jan 2012) http://africacenter.org/wp-content/
uploads/2012/03/PreventingYouthRadicalizationProgramReport-2012.pdf.
[24] See: International Crisis Group, “Kenyan Somali Islamist Radicalisation’ Africa Briefing, no. 85 (25 Jan 2012); Peter Taylor, “On the trail
of al-Shabab's Kenyan recruitment ‘pipeline’,” (2 Oct 2013) http://mg.co.za/article/2013-10-02-on-the-trail-of-al-shababs-kenyan-recruitment-
pipeline; and, Christopher Anzalone, “Kenya’s Muslim Youth Center and Al-Shabab’s East African Recruitment,” CTC Sentinel (29 Oct 2012)
http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/kenyas-muslim-youth-center-and-al-shababs-east-african-recruitment.
[25] See: David Smith, “Al-Shabaab in war of words with Kenyan army on Twitter,” The Guardian (13 Dec 2011) http://www.theguardian.com/
world/2011/dec/13/al-shabaab-war-words-twitter.
[26] See: David Barnett, “Are you looking at an official Shabaab Twitter account?,” Long War Journal (25 Sept 2013) http://
www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2013/09/are_you_looking_at_an_official.php.
[27] See: Bill Roggio, “Yemeni jihadi claims Anwar al Awlaki, Samir Khar killed in airstrike,” Long War Journal (30 Sept 2013) http://
www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2011/09/yemeni_jihadi_claims_anwar_al.php.
[28] See: Liat Shetret, “Use of the Internet for Counter-Terrorist Purposes,” Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation (Feb 2011)
http://www.globalct.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/LS_policybrief_119.pdf.
[29] For example, see: United States Agency for International Development (USAID), “Mid-term evaluation of three countering violent
extremism projects” (22 Feb 2013) http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDACX479.pdf.
[30] For a detailed discussion on security and justice capacity, and perceptions of legitimacy in state-society relations, see: OECD, “The State’s
Legitimacy in Fragile Situations: Unpacking Complexity” (2007) http://www.oecd.org/dac/incaf/44794487.pdf.
[31] In the context of the Horn of Africa, see: Liat Shetret, Matthew Schwartz, and Danielle Cotter, “Mapping Perceptions of Violent
Extremism: Pilot Study of Community Attitudes in Kenya and Somaliland,” Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation (Jan 2013)
http://www.globalct.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Jan2013_MPVE_PilotStudy.pdf/. Also, see: Daniel P. Aldrich, “First Steps Toward
Hearts and Minds? USAID’s Countering Violent Extremism Policies in Africa” (26 Jun 2012) http://www.purdue.edu/research/gpri/
publications/documents/AldrichFirstStepstowardHeartsandMindsendnotes.pdf.
[32] For a detailed discussion on the drivers of violent extremism, see: USAID, “Guide to the Drivers of Violent Extremism” (Feb 2009) http://
transition.usaid.gov/locations/sub-saharan_africa/publications/docs/guide_to_drivers_of_ve.pdf.
[33] See: Shetret, et al., “Mapping Perceptions of Violent Extremism” (Jan 2013); and, Education Development Center, “Garissa (G-Youth)
Project: Assessment & Design” (Jan 2009) http://kenya.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/Garissa%20Youth%20Assessment%20Report.pdf.
[34] The Danish Demining Group’s ‘Community Safety in Somaliland’ project is an instructive example, see: Geneva International Centre for
Humanitarian Demining, “DDG Community Safety Programme: Somaliland Case Study” (Sept 2012) http://www.gichd.org/fileadmin/pdf/
ma_development/AVR/AVR-Somaliland-DDG-case-study-Sep2012.pdf.
111 December 2013

[35] USAID’s Kenya Transition Initiative (KTI) is an instructive example. See: www.usaid.gov/kenya.
[36] For example, see: Denmark, Whole of Government Stabilisation Programme for the Wider Horn of Africa/East Africa 2011-2014, http://
etiopien.um.dk/en/~/media/Etiopien/Documents/Programme%20Document%20-%20Peace%20and%20Stabilisation%20Fund%20Horn
%20of%20Africa.pdf; European Union, A Strategic Framework for the Horn of Africa, Annex I of the Council conclusions on the Horn of
Africa (14 Nov 2011), http://register.consilium.europa.eu/pdf/en/11/st16/st16858.en11.pdf.
112 December 2013

III. Research Notes

Research Note on the Energy Infrastructure Attack Database (EIAD)
by Jennifer Giroux, Peter Burgherr, Laura Melkunaite
Abstract
The January 2013 attack on the In Amenas natural gas facility drew international attention.
However this attack is part of a portrait of energy infrastructure targeting by non-state actors
that spans the globe. Data drawn from the Energy Infrastructure Attack Database (EIAD) shows
that in the last decade there were, on average, nearly 400 annual attacks carried out by armed
non-state actors on energy infrastructure worldwide, a figure that was well under 200 prior to
1999. This data reveals a global picture whereby violent non-state actors target energy
infrastructures to air grievances, communicate to governments, impact state economic interests,
or capture revenue in the form of hijacking, kidnapping ransoms, theft. And, for politically
motivated groups, such as those engaged in insurgencies, attacking industry assets garners media
coverage serving as a facilitator for international attention. This research note will introduce
EIAD and position its utility within various research areas where the targeting of energy
infrastructure, or more broadly energy infrastructure vulnerability, has been addressed, either
directly or indirectly. We also provide a snapshot of the initial analysis of the data between
1980-2011, noting specific temporal and spatial trends, and then conclude with a brief discussion
on the contribution of EIAD, highlighting future research trajectories.
Keywords: energy infrastructure vulnerability, non-state violence, database, targeting
Introduction
Attacks aimed at energy infrastructure have increased over the last decade, a trend that is
correlated with the growing political and economic instability in oil and gas producing
regions. Terrorism, insurgent tactics, maritime piracy, sabotage, targeted activism, etc., are
part of the bouquet of violent phenomena where energy infrastructures have been targeted.
Despite this, research on the targeting of energy infrastructure has remained in various
research silos, particularly the study of terrorism or resource conflict studies, without
branching out across other areas of research on violent phenomena in general, and the
targeting behaviours of violent non-state actors (VNSA) more explicitly.[1] In one attempt to
fill this gap the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich in collaboration with the Paul
Scherrer Institute (PSI) developed the Energy Infrastructure Attack Database (EIAD): a
compilation of data from 1980 through 2011 on reported (criminal and political) attacks/
threats to energy infrastructures by non-state actors—which includes the range of actors from
politically motivated groups (e.g. terrorists) to other criminal actors such as those committing
acts of maritime piracy and armed banditry.
113 December 2013

This fully searchable database (contained in an Excel datasheet) contains over 8,000 coded
incidents, spanning the globe.[2] In addition to including attacks (both successful and
unsuccessful) that aim to cause physical harm or damage, when possible other threats such as
plots are also included so to capture the full breadth of (non-state) threats to energy assets.
Furthermore, it is not just devoted to attacks aimed at the oil and gas sector (both onshore and
offshore), but across all energy sectors (Biomass, Coal, Geothermal, Hydropower, Nuclear,
Solar, and Wind) and electricity in general. Furthermore, within these sectors energy
infrastructures (EI) include all human (energy sector personnel), physical (energy sector
physical assets) and information (energy sector cyber systems supporting operations)
infrastructures.[3]
This Research Note on EIAD aims to introduce this new dataset and our analysis on the
targeting of energy infrastructure. We continue this discussion by first examining some key
research themes where the targeting of energy infrastructure, or more broadly energy
infrastructure vulnerability, has been addressed, either directly or indirectly. In this respect,
we try to make the case that EIAD, and the ideas built emerging from its development, are
interconnected with various research discussions and thus hope that its future utility will
encourage cross-fertilization of research and analysis. Following this discussion we provide a
snapshot of our initial analysis of the data between 1980-2011, noting specific trends and
assessments. Finally, we conclude with a brief discussion on the contribution of EIAD and
highlight future research trajectories.
Why EIAD?
When examining VNSA threats to Energy Infrastructures (EI), academic and policy
discussions are often focused on terrorist threats to EI (part of which is connected to debates
on energy security) or the relationship between conflict and natural resources, the latter of
which is more about the conditions in which national resource abundance is related to
conflict. There has also been a growing body of literature focusing on how businesses should
operate in conflict-affected areas. In the process to develop the targeting energy infrastructure
project the EIAD research team decided to look beyond ‘terrorist targeting’ in order to capture
other types of non-state, violent phenomena. In doing so, we found these various research
strands to be relevant for not only building up our understanding of this area but also
positioning our analysis and where we see EIAD being particularly useful to further studies
and analysis.
Previous Work
One of the more notable, earlier studies in this field of research was carried out by Kjøk and
Lia (2001) [4] and examined non-state threats against petroleum infrastructure. Using the
ITERATE database of international terrorism, the authors found that 79 per cent of terrorist
strikes against petroleum infrastructure (between 1922 to 1999) were made by domestic
114 December 2013

terrorist groups. In addition, the authors also noted a general increase, over time, in the
number of attacks against petroleum infrastructures.[5] Another study, published in 2008,
looked more specifically at the interest and capability of al-Qaeda attacking ‘economic
targets’ (particularly EI),[6] an attempt not too dissimilar from other efforts in the post 9/11
era.[7] Mihalka and Anderson (2008) linked the analysis to global energy security concerns,
found that despite verbal overtures global jihadists affiliated with al-Qaeda have not made EI,
and economic targets more broadly, a serious priority. More recently, a 2010 study, “Terrorist
Targeting and Energy Security,” sought to uncover the general patterns and characteristics of
contemporary terrorist targeting of EI.[8] Though Toft et al (2010) found a certain geographic
concentration of attacks, similar to Simonoff et al (2005) [9], they did not find a correlation
between energy rich countries and the number of EI attacks, nor did they observe a
correlation between certain terrorist ideologies and EI targeting. Outside of these larger
studies, there have also been some case studies that take into account dynamics or factors at
the local level. Studies on specific countries,[10] regions,[11] or terrorist groups or Violent
Non-State Actors (VNSAs) [12] have rendered some interesting insights; however, they
continue to fall short of looking at the community interplay with other VNSA in regions
where violence is prevalent and EI is vulnerable. Furthermore, all of these studies tend to focus
on threats to the oil and gas sector, while EIAD is a dataset that captures threats to all energy
sectors.
A second area of research - the resource conflict literature - is a useful resource for capturing
some of the conditions in which energy infrastructure becomes vulnerable. In many cases, one
can see a correlation between the increase in attacks aimed at petroleum infrastructure and
the growing instability in oil producing/exporting states.[13] However, such studies have met
some criticism. A subsequent study by Lujala et al (2007) found that it is not so much about
the hydrocarbons per se, but rather the existence of conflict in areas where oil is located that
may lead to, or exacerbate, conflict and thus, by extension, increase vulnerability.[14] Looking
at the impact to oil and gas supplies during conflict, Luciani (2011) found that oil and gas
installations are relatively resilient in armed conflict; but such conflicts tend to hinder
investment and reduce revenues.[15] Of course, as demonstrated by numerous studies, such
debates, correlations and linkages are certainly not new but nevertheless useful when assessing
the spaces where EI vulnerability is directly or indirectly addressed.[16]
A third literature strand examines how businesses, particularly multinational corporations and
those in extractive industries, are rather normative in the way debating how companies should
operate in conflict-affected areas. The underlying theme in such debates is that business actors
are significant players in the host environment, not only serving as partners with the host
government but also with the host community where they require the social license to build
and operate the infrastructure to carry out their activities. In this respect, through their
operations they become intertwined with the different social and technical spaces, often
meaning that they operate in or around conflict zones and may even contribute to conflict by
the sheer expectations their activities create. This creates enormous challenges as not all state
115 December 2013

actors have the capacity or the will to provide security, giving way to the potential for business
actors to incur “substantial war damages and rising security costs” and risk “being publicly
associated with bloodshed and human rights violations”.[17] Yet, even in this discussion there
is little research that examines the challenges that arise from businesses having to engage (or
inadvertently engaging) with VNSAs, particularly when their assets are threatened. Business
actors bring the capacity to build large compounds, oftentimes well-equipped and developed,
to house their staff, bring in large machinery to develop complex facilities and other
infrastructures to conduct their business activities. They are responsible for extraction and
production activities as well as bringing mineral products to the global market. All of this is
supported by business operations, which include a capable staff and infrastructure.
Meanwhile, community members continue to live without the same access to such services.
The lack of electricity or access to decent roads, or any roads at all, creates a sense of tension
that gives way to the formation of grievances which may in turn lead to violence aimed at the
energy sector.
Brought together, when reviewing this literature not only did we find a gap in the types of
violence and energy sectors considered within studies on the targeting of energy
infrastructure (with an overwhelming focus on terrorist threats to oil and gas assets) but we
also found that very few studies examined how violence emerges and evolves within a complex
socio-technical space where infrastructural imbalances are both a large driver of conflict and
influence the targeting behaviours of VNSAs. As a result, rather than using terrorism datasets
to analyze trends, we decided that a new dataset needed to be developed to include other
energy sectors as well as other types of violence carried out by non-state actors. Furthermore,
given the growing extent and intensity of the non-state threats to EI, more comprehensive
tools for risk assessment and management in the field of energy security are needed.
Acknowledging the absence of an integral open-source that deals explicitly with attacks aimed
at EI, the EIAD was developed to fill this research gap.
EIAD Structure, Data Collection, & Analysis

To be clear, EIAD is not a complete departure from existing open source datasets on non-state
violence. If anything, we view EIAD as a contribution to research on the targeting behaviours
of non-state actors and the vulnerability of energy infrastructure as well as a resource that
serves as a connection point with other open source datasets. What sets EIAD apart is the
inclusion of all forms of non-state violence aimed at energy infrastructure, which is defined as
‘all human (energy sector personnel), physical (energy sector physical assets) and information
(energy sector cyber systems supporting operations) infrastructures in fossil energy chains
(oil, natural gas, coal), hydro and nuclear power, new renewable technologies (e.g. solar, wind,
biomass, geothermal) as well as electricity infrastructures. However, given the broad utility of
the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) [18] and the extraordinary efforts that have gone into
developing and maintaining this dataset, the GTD was used as a basis for EIAD and thus we
adopted a similar structure and methodology. With that, all of GTD’s data on terrorist attacks
116 December 2013

aimed at energy infrastructure are included in EIAD and coded and sourced accordingly.
Where EIAD departs from GTD is in its inclusion of other forms of non-state violence. This
requires the use of various kinds of open source information (databases such as the
International Maritime Bureau Piracy reports, news articles, etc.) to gather information on
other (namely non-terrorist related) incidents where energy infrastructures have been
targeted. In addition we have begun to receive incident information on the targeting of oil and
gas infrastructures, in particular, from private sources such as companies and governments.
At present, EIAD contains reported threats (plots, hoax, etc.) and attacks (successful, failed
and foiled) on EI throughout the world between 1980 and 2011. Each coded incident in the
database has its geo-reference, which will allow the visualisation of data by means of mapping
tools and Geographic Information System (GIS) software, allowing the geo-statistical analysis
to identify spatial patterns and hotspots. Another unique aspect of the EIAD is that we do not
code for motivation but rather for attack type (e.g., assassination, assault, bombing, etc.) and
instrument used (e.g., firearms, explosive-dynamite, arson/firebombing, etc.). The aspect of
motivation was omitted due to errors in reporting as well as the fact that the motivation of the
perpetrator is not always obvious and in many cases not known/reported. Nevertheless, EIAD
includes a category for ‘Perpetrator Group/Actor’, which can help with identifying motivation/
intent.
Data Collection & Verification

The data collection for the EIAD follows standard coding procedures: human coders collected
information through open-source (non-commercial) databases, books, and other available
online resources. In order to ensure the accuracy of the data, researchers used standardised
data entry formats. The standardised data categories include Incident Date (including
extended incidents such as hijacking and kidnappings); Incident Location (location, including
geo-coded information; Incident Information (summary, event type, and whether event was
part of a multiple attack); Attack Information (attack type, instruments used, combination
attack, second attack type); Target Information (specific target, energy sector, energy
infrastructure, second target); Perpetrator Information (individual/group, group type); Incident
Consequences (casualties and fatalities, reported downtime, infrastructure impact, hostage
information); Additional Information; and Source Information (media reports, social media,
cross-reference to other databases, etc.). Except for incident date, summary, additional
information and sources, all of the categories have standardized data entry lists to select from.
Furthermore, in the development of our categories we kept close to the format used by GTD
to maintain synchronicity and compatibility where possible. In terms of energy sectors and
subsectors we drew from other resources to create a comprehensive list for data entry.
Given that we used data drawn from the GTD as well as other databases and resources, the
first step of the database development process involved gathering, structuring and aggregating
data from various sources. This allowed us to merge duplicate data as well as address
117 December 2013

redundancies. This step involved combing through the coded data to address duplications and
also fill gaps in information where possible. During this step we also addressed any incidents
that contained multiple attacks, disaggregating them when and where necessary. By
disaggregation we are referring to our decision to have single incidents which involve multiple
type or locations of an attack to be disaggregated such that each attack within the incident is
recognized as both connected to another incident (by being marked as a ‘multiple attack’) as
well as having its own incident ID. After consultation with various experts during the
development of EIAD’s coding methodology we determined that the tendency for VNSA to
carry out small, oftentimes multiple attacks in confined periods of time best reflected the
nature of the threat and the capability of the threat actor. Single incidents that involve large
damage are represented in EIAD; however, they are less frequent than the smaller types of
attacks, most of which are targeting numerous points across a pipeline, or various connecting
electrical pylons, for example.
Once we had our master dataset, another reviewer examined the data to address incorrect data
entry or irregularities as well as another person that carried out the quantitative analysis.
Overall, while such a massive data collection, aggregation, and structuring will render some
overlaps or errors we have attempted to mitigate such lapses through these steps of verification
and review. It is also our intention to continually maintain EIAD as a living database, one that
through feedback from users can continuously be improved.
Most of our incidents contain one source, though we have aimed for two sources in the
interest of verification. For all incidents where verified data sources have been cited, such as
GTD or the International Maritime Bureau, typically one source has been referenced. In
addition we have also received some data from companies and governments, which provide
data that is often not found in media sources. In such cases, we list the source as “private”, if
there is an agreement of confidentiality, or list the actual name of a source provider if
permitted. However, this issue of sourcing brings up two limitations of the data. For one, we
need more primary data in order to increase the robustness and accuracy of the incident
information. In many cases we only list ‘explosives’ (for example) as the attack type or
instrument used as opposed to having access to more detailed information on the type of
explosive. First of all, this type of specific information, which is difficult to access as it
commonly remains in the confidential knowledge bank of governments and companies, is
important for research as it enables analysis on the behaviour and tactics of violent actors over
time. Secondly, this type of more detailed information would provide more exact information
on the location of attacks. Most of our geo-coded information on the location of attacks refers
to a city or in some cases a region. This is due to the lack of specific, geo-coded reporting from
open sources. In comparison, the information that we have received from primary data
sources has offered more specific geo-coded information, which in turn can be helpful for not
only visualising hotspots at the micro level and tracking the movement patterns of violence
but also for improving qualitative analysis on the area where violence emerges.
118 December 2013

Analysis
The present analysis of EIAD includes 8.602 data records encompassing the years 1980-2011.
[19] In the 1980s and 1990s a total of 1808 and 1508 events were recorded, whereas in the
2000s with 4,223 events it more than doubled. The two years available for the 2010s already
amount to 1,063 EI attacks, indicating that a further increase could be expected if no drastic
changes in the overall situation and/or boundary conditions will occur in the next few years.
Figure 1 shows the annual numbers of attacks for this period as well as the respective decade
averages. The apparent overall upward trend in EI attacks is also statistically confirmed by a
non-parametric Man-Kendall test (n = 32, Z = 3.16, p = 0.01). It is worthwhile to note that the
year 1993 appears to be a substantial outlier to this trend with only 14 attacks; however it does
not affect the prevailing pattern. This can be illustrated by replacing the 1993 value by the
average of 1992 and 1994, which increases the decade average by a modest 10%.
The low 1993 value can be explained by the fact that EIAD uses the Global Terrorism Database
(GTD) as one of its key primary information sources for terrorism related incidents. The data
for 1993 were lost prior to the compilation of GTD and despite several efforts could not be
recollected (GTD Codebook).[20] Cumulated country level statistics in the Appendix of the
above cited GTD document suggest that GTD should contain almost 5,000 incidents for 1993.
Within our ongoing EIAD coding efforts we were also not able to obtain a better coverage of
individual EI attacks for 1993, which is why EIAD currently has the same data gap for 1993
like GTD.
Figure 1: Annual number of EI attacks and decadal averages over the period 1980 – 2011.
119 December 2013

The vast majority of EI attacks in the period 1980-2011 were classified as successful (8.211),
distantly followed by foiled (175) and failed (203) attacks. The remaining 0.15% was
categorized as threat (8), plot (3) and unknown (2). Though we code for hoaxes, we do not
have any incidents coded as such in the database. This high share of successful attacks can be
explained by several factors. Certain energy infrastructures such as pipelines and transmission
lines are due to their “linear” nature relatively easy targets, and are therefore exposed to a high
attack pressure. Furthermore, production and transit of energy carriers takes place in or passes
through less developed countries that do not have the financial means to harden such
infrastructures and provide high protection levels. Finally, we can safely assume that we are
not capturing a completely comprehensive picture, given that many attacks go unreported and
thus do not surface in the media. This may be more important for foiled and failed attacks,
and particularly threats, plots and hoaxes, which are also not the main focus of EIAD. In fact,
most companies would prefer to keep threats to their assets as quiet as possible. Of course, this
is one of the consequences, and indeed drawbacks, of relying on public or open sources for
information, particularly as it concerns threats to energy infrastructures that are often owned/
operated by private actors.
The Cano Limon pipeline in Colombia provides an example of how guerrilla attacks by
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and National Liberation Army of Colombia
(ELN) could be significantly reduced from 2002 to 2004 due to a strong militarisation of the
area as well as the demobilisation and reintegration of paramilitaries in Colombia [21].
However, this improvement in security was at the expense that exploration of new reserves
came practically to a standstill. More recently, approaches involving engagement of local
communities have been adopted by industry and affected countries to increase local support
through participation processes, socio-economic benefits, and protection of the environment.
In contrast, “point sources” such as refineries or power plants are thus easier to protect against
physical and cyber-attacks. EIAD data clearly supports this notion with close to 50% of attacks
attributable to electricity transmission lines and sub-stations, followed by oil pipelines (ca.
15%), oil transports by road tanker and natural gas pipelines (each in the order of 7%). Finally,
a rather large amount of almost 40% or 3413 of EI attacks were considered multiple attacks.
The multiplicity of attacks within a specific country points to the power of ‘tactical contagion’
within certain contexts and which contribute to the crests of the wave. For example, to identify
the motivational complexity of such cases, fieldwork carried out by Giroux in 2012 in Nigeria
and Colombia, two prominent locations in EIAD where EI has been frequently targeted
(tactical contagion), revealed that though many of the attacks were carried out by political
motivated groups, such as the FARC in Colombia, the motivation for attacks were various.
Some attacks were carried out as a way to send political messages while others were motivated
by pure economic reasons (e.g. threats to EI as a form of extortion).
Among the EI attacks in the observed period of time, 80.4% were carried out with some type
of bombing device, followed by several other attack types with more than 100 events that
cumulatively amount to 15.0% (Figure 2). Siege and hostage events contribute a low 0.4%,
120 December 2013

whereas armed attacks, cyber-attacks and vandalism with a share of 0.1% are practically
negligible.
The low levels of cyber incidents capture the coding challenges within this area. Due to lack of
information, particularly on the actor (state or non-state), including incidents, such as the
infamous Stuxnet worm that targeted supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA)
systems in the energy sector,[22] is a hurdle. For one, the actor of this event, like many cyber
attacks, is unknown and may very well be a state actor, which would mean that it does not
meet EIAD’s coding criteria. Other incidents, such as hijacking typically refer to vessels
carrying energy (e.g. oil or gas products), offshore whereas assassination attacks involve the
targeting of specific energy personnel. Lastly, it should be noted that 4.1% of all events could
not be assigned to a specific category because of incomplete information in the available
incident summary, and thus are classified as unknown.
Figure 2: Classification of EI attacks by attack type (1980-2011; n=8602)
Figure 3 shows the spatial distribution of EI attacks by country for the years 1980-2011(Only
events that could be accurately geo-‐referenced were considered, which is why only
6990 out of all 8602 EI attacks are shown in the @igure). It is in the visualisation of EIAD
incidents and the breakdown of attacks by country that the role of tactical contagion comes to
life, illuminating the specific areas (or hotspots) where EI attacks have been particularly
common.
121 December 2013

The information in this figure can be summarized as follows:
The top 3 countries were Colombia (1.381 EI attacks), Iraq (1.085) and Pakistan (1.009)
accounting for 49.7% of all EI attacks in the years 1980 - 2011.
• Another 25.7% were attributable to El Salvador, Peru, Afghanistan, Nigeria and

Chile (200+ attacks each)
• India, Angola, Philippines, Thailand and Russia (100+ attacks each) contributed
another 11.8%.
• Spain, Turkey, Yemen and Guatemala (50+ attacks each) sum up to 3.8%.
• The remaining 69 countries for which data were available accounted for the
remaining 8.9%, and roughly two thirds of them contributed 0.1% or less.
Figure 3: Spatial distribution of EI attacks in the period 1980-2011 (n = 6990).
Figure 4 illustrates the top three country clusters (Colombia, Iraq and Pakistan), and provides
additional information on the temporal dynamics as well as involved energy sectors and
infrastructure types in each cluster. The combined representation of these two factors with the
temporal aspects allow for a more subtle differentiation of country hotspots.
In the case of Colombia, three distinct peaks of EI attacks can be observed from 1988-1992,
1999-2002 and 2005-2007. It is worthwhile noticing that the first peak is less pronounced than
the two others, and that after the second peak the annual numbers of attacks do not decrease
again to similar low levels as before. The peak from 1988-92 is clearly attributable to the
petroleum sector and attacks on the Cano Limon pipeline. The second peak comprises a
combination of attacks on oil pipelines and transmission lines, with attacks on the former
dominating in 2001, and on the latter in the years 1999, 2000 and 2002. The strong decrease in
122 December 2013

attacks on oil pipelines between 2002 and 2004 is then due to the previously mentioned
militarisation of the Cano Limon pipeline region.
Iraq exhibited a clear peak from 2004 to 2007, with 2005 and 2006 having more than 300 and
250 attacks, respectively. Overall, oil pipelines and transmission lines were most often
attacked, followed by attacks directed at energy and government personnel. Across the years
included in this analysis, there were some shifts in patterns of infrastructures predominantly
affected, i.e. oil pipelines in 2004, oil pipelines and transmission lines in 2005, personnel in
2006, and all categories about equally in 2007.
In Pakistan, between about 70 and 140 attacks per year occurred from 2005 to 2010, and then
the number of attacks nearly doubled to 270 in 2011. The actual impacts on Pakistan’s energy
sectors and infrastructures can be divided as follows. The lower peak period concerned mostly
transmission lines (2005-2009) and natural gas pipelines, whereas the high peak in 2011 is a
combination of transmission lines, oil transport by road tanker and natural gas pipelines. As
illustrated by these top three cluster countries, it is important not only to look at spatial
clustering (hotspots), but also to analyze the temporal patterns and underlying mechanisms
creating these clusters through time.
Figure 4: Annual numbers of EI attacks for top three countries, including identification of
temporal attack peaks in the period 1980-2011.
Contribution & Future Research Trajectories

In all, EIAD provides a comprehensive foundation for the analysis of energy infrastructure
attacks by VNSAs. In our analysis we evaluated the spatial and temporal patterns and
123 December 2013

conceptualized the patterns of clustering as type of ‘tactical contagion’ within specific areas or
locales as well as across regions. In other words, we denote a common pattern whereby attacks
on energy infrastructures are often multiple events and concentrated both in time and space,
resulting in distinct hotspots. We also found that attacks predominantly take place on “linear”
energy infrastructures (e.g. pipelines and transmission lines) that are difficult to protect and
often pass through remote areas. Therefore, consequences in terms of fatalities and casualties
are mostly minor, although when attacks occur frequently (in terms of multiple and connected
events), they can result in substantial business and supply disruptions. For example, in Iraq,
between January and August 2013 there were over 30 bombings aimed at the Kirkuk-Ceyhan
pipeline, which led to repeated downtime for repairs.
Looking ahead, there are multiple avenues for future research that can adopt and develop
other conceptual approaches to understand trends as well as continue to improve EIAD’s
utility. For one, EIAD has room for further development, particularly in the area of fostering
avenues for a community of interest – made up of public and private partners – to provide and
help improve the quality of information. This can help address some of the information
shortcomings discussed earlier. In addition, given that we have identified discernible patterns
in the data (i.e. ‘tactical contagion’ or hotspots) there is the potential to use EIAD to forecast
likely future clusters. This will require further analysis on the correlating factors across regions
that lead to clusters, and would be a worthwhile endeavor. At a micro-level more cases studies
are needed to add depth and breadth to EIAD – simply analysing the data at a macro level has
already revealed some interesting insights and illuminates some of the context-specific factors
and nuances that can, in turn, inform policy prescriptions and recommendations.
About the Authors:
Jennifer Giroux is a Senior Researcher for the Risk & Resilience Team at the Center for Security
Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich. She also heads the targeting energy infrastructure research project
through which the Energy Infrastructure Attack Database (EIAD) was developed. Peter
Burgherr is Head of the Technology Assessment group, Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis,
at Switzerland’s Paul Scherrer Institute. He is also the primary person responsible for PSI’s
database ENSAD (Energy-Related Severe Accident Database), which is the world's largest
database on severe accidents in the energy sector. Laura Melkunaite is a Project Assistant at the
CSS; she has worked on the development of EIAD
Notes
[1] Acts of war against energy infrastructures by states are not covered in EIAD
[2] For access to EIAD see: http://www.css.ethz.ch/research/research_projects/index_EN/EIAD
[3] Overall the EIAD consists of 10 main categories and sub-categories to be discussed in the section ‘EIAD Structure, Data Collection, &
Analysis’.
[4] Ashild Kjøk & Brynjar Lia. Terrorism and Oil – An Explosive Mixture? A Survey of Terrorist and Rebel Attacks on Petroleum Infrastructure
1968-1999. FFI/RAPPORT 2001/04031, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment, 2001. Online at: http://www.ffi.no/no/Rapporter/
01-04031.pdf
[5] Ibid, p. 22.
124 December 2013

[6] Michael Mihalka & David Anderson. Is the Sky Falling? Energy Security and Transnational Terrorism. Strategic Insights, Center for
Contemporary Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, July 2008.
[7] For example see: John C. K. Daly. Saudi Oil Facilities: Al-Qaeda's Next Target? Terrorism Monitor 4, Issue 4, 2006; Gal Luft. Pipeline
sabotage is terrorist's weapon of choice. Energy Security, March 28, 2005.
[8] Peter Toft, Arash Duero & Arunas Bieliauskas. Terrorist targeting and energy security. Energy Policy, 38, 2010.
[9] S.J. Simonoff, C. Restrepo, R. Zimmerman & E.W. Remington. Trends for Oil and Gas Terrorist Attacks. I3P Report No. 2, Hanover, NH:
The I3P, November 2005.
[10] Babatunde Anifowose, Damian M. Lawler, Dan van der Horst & Lee Chapman. Attacks on oil transport pipelines in Nigeria: A
quantitative exploration and possible explanation of observed patterns. Applied Geography, 32, 2011; Jennifer Giroux. Turmoil in Delta: Trends
and Implications. Perspectives on Terrorism, 2: 8, 2008.
[11] See: Pavel K. Baev. Reevaluating the Risks of Terrorist Attacks Against Energy Infrastructure in Eurasia. China and Eurasia Forum
Quarterly, Vol. 4, No. 2, 2006; Jennifer Giroux. Targeting Energy Infrastructure Examining the Terrorist Threat in North Africa and its Broader
Implications. Circunstancia 7: 18, 2009.
[12] John Robb. Brave New War: The Next Stage of Terrorism and the End of Globalization. John Wiley & Sons Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey,
2007; Toft et al. 2010.
[13] Halvard Buhaug. Relative Capability and Rebel Objective in Civil War. Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 43, No. 6, 2006; Michael L. Ross.
Blood Barrels: Why Oil Wealth Fuels Conflict. Foreign Affairs, May/June 2008.
[14] Päivi Lujala, Jan Ketil Rod & Nadja Thieme. Fighting over Oil: Introducing a New Dataset. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 24,
pp. 239-256, 2007.
[15] Giacomo Luciani. Armed Conflicts and Security of Oil and Gas Supplies. CEPS Working Document, No. 352, 2011. http://
www.princeton.edu/~gluciani/pdfs/WD%20352%20_SECURE_%20Luciani%20on%20Armed%20Conflicts.pdf.
[16] E.g.: Paul Collier & A. Hoeffler. On economic causes of civil war. Oxford Economic Papers, 50: 4, P. 563-573, 1998; Michael Ross. What do
we know about natural resources and civil war? Journal of Peace Research, 41: 3, pp. 337-56, 2004.
[17] Nicole Deitelhoff & Klaus Dieter Wolf. Corporate Security Responsibility? Corporate Governance Contributions to Peace and Security in
Zones of Conflict. Pelgrave Macmillan, p. 3, 2010.
[18] Gary LaFree & Laura Dugan. Introducing the Global Terrorism Database. Terrorism and Political Violence, 19: 1, pp. 81-204, 2007.
[19] This is a snapshot of a larger data analysis and study that was supported by the United States Institute for Peace in partnership with our
host institutions. The full data analysis with case studies will be featured in another publication.
[20] See the GTD Codebook, p.3: www.start.umd.edu/gtd/downloads/Codebook.pdf
[21] Markus Koth. Demobilization and Reintegration of Paramilitaries in Colombia. Bonn International Center for Conversion (BICC) Papers,
July 2005.
[22] J.P. Farwell and Rafal Rohozinski. Stuxnet and the Future of Cyber War. Survival: Global Politics and Strategy 53: 1, pp. 23–40, 2011.
125 December 2013

Risks of Terrorism, Homicide and Illness: a Methodological

Consideration
by Richard J. Chasdi
Abstract
A recurring question posed to researchers is whether or not terrorism poses similar degrees of risk
as other man-made or natural disasters. There are some specialists, such as John Mueller, who
argue that somewhat ironically, the threat of terrorism is vastly exaggerated.[1] This begs the
question : compared to what? The underlying aim of this Research Note is to point out some basic
methodological and contextual issues to consider, rather than making an attempt to provide hard
answers regarding relative individual and collective risks. However, an effort is made to place
some empirical findings into appropriate political and social contexts. The framework for
discussion includes: basic conceptual problems regarding the notion of “risk”; a comparison of
certain basic terrorism incident rates with rates for homicides and illness; and identification of
possible future directions to gauge risk assessment within the context of a more holistic systems
perspective.
Introduction
The conceptualization of risk requires much more than a delineation of type of risk from
specific threats. Indeed, John Monahan suggests that even within the realm of terrorism
studies, terrorism is a necessary but insufficient term that clusters a wide ranging group of
phenomena, thereby in effect working to provide impediments to meaningful research about
explanatory variables for specific (sub-) types of terrorist assaults.[2] For Monahan, it follows
there should be efforts to standardize understandings of seminal concepts such as whether
terrorist assaults comprise “a process” or are composed of discrete “events” or perhaps are
either or both under certain select circumstances.[3] Still another critical issue that Monahan
points to is that scholars must differentiate between the risk of terrorist assaults associated
with recruitment of terrorist activists by contrast to the risk of terrorism with recruitment of
constituency groups in what Monahan calls “supply roles.”[4]
Equally important, there is no one generally recognizable and widely shared conceptualization
or definition of the broader notion of “risk.”[5] As David Shields at Walsh College puts it,
“there is a difference between ‘risk to’ and ‘risk of ’ conceptualizations.” To extrapolate, what
seems significant in the case of the “risk to” notion is that underlying emphasis is placed on
the object of risk (i.e., what will happen to that object), by contrast to the “risk of ” notion that
places emphasis on the sources and origins of “risk” as a driver of action.
At the same time, “risk to” is a more active, temporal, and proximate conceptualization of the
risk condition, while “risk of ” is a more dormant condition or tense that has inherent potential
for change into a more active form. Moreover, there is also a range of risk “perception or
126 December 2013

misperception” that in some circumstances might contribute to an increase or decrease of

overall risk, whatever that risk is all about.[6] Put another way, there must be some way to
account for “subjective risk” appraisal that essentially amounts to a random variable in data
testing in survey (i.e., questionnaire) formats for example.
Seen from a slightly different angle, Monahan also notes there is a clear distinction between
“risk reduction,” a concept that requires almost singular focus on “causal factors” as Kraemer
et. al. (1997) put it, and “risk assessment,” that in turn revolves around “likelihood” or
“probability.”[7] Indeed, what is significant here is Monahan suggestion that there are
fundamental differences between threat assessment of victimization - which is the focus of
this Research Note - and assessment of risk focused on the individual, namely those who are
deemed to present various degrees of threat or potential threat to society as political terrorists
do.[8]
Disparate Measures of Terrorism and Other Calamitous Threats

Much of what is available to the researcher when thinking about “risk assessment” with
respect to terrorist assaults is a set of disparate empirical studies about patterns or trends of
terrorism or related phenomena that all too often rely on aggregated data results with limited
utility.[9] To be sure, those broader patterns are useful, as trend assessments of terrorism have
at least some predictive value for public policy initiatives.[10] Nonetheless, such aggregate
results do precious little to help illuminate individual or collective risk for terrorist assaults at
specific geographical locales at specific moments in time.[11]
For instance, a range of empirical results about terrorism compiled by the National
Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) is presented by the
U.S. Department of State for the evaluation of terrorism trends in 2012, presumably to help
gauge risk for a variety of actors. Those data are as good an example as any of broad types of
data with a range of problems that include the implicit assumption that different types of
targets share the same degree of threat even at different geographical locales and at different
periods of time.[12] For example, consider the chart from the START- U.S. Department of
State data reproduced below.
Such relative frequencies by country are important findings that articulate the basic
parameters of terrorism: the ten highest numerical amounts of terrorist assault incidents per
country. As this report points out, the top four countries, namely Pakistan, Iraq, Afghanistan,
and India are found in Asia, with three out of four of those countries with over 1,000
incidents. In addition, the Philippines in South East Asia ranks ninth out of the ten countries
that experienced the highest number of terrorist assaults in 2012.[13]
127 December 2013

While these findings are useful, what is also significant is that the foregoing are aggregated
measures of attacks by country that do not distinguish between urban and rural locales, region
of the country, locales rich with precious metals and other natural resources, neighborhood
clusters, and individual neighborhoods. [14] The variation in the range of “average numbers
killed per attack” from .41 in the case of India, to 4.94 persons killed per incident in the case
of Syria underscores the importance of “contextual factors” intrinsic to specific operational
environments such as the “civil war” in Syria that began in 2010.[15] What seems significant
for our purposes, namely to acquire some rough assessment of risk from available data, are
mean number of deaths and injuries that result from terrorist assaults. Plainly, the mean rates
are comparatively low when terrorism is compared to other broader forms of political violence
and armed conflict that do not have a clear beginning, middle, and end point as do terrorist
assaults or other specific acts of force.
For example, Syria, in the throes of a full blown civil war where the highest means of death
and injury were found, had a mean for death of only 4.94 persons killed (657/133) per attack,
by contrast to a rate of injuries over 2.7 times as large, but still with a mean of only 13.44
(1,787/133). In turn, the average rate of death in Afghanistan, itself characterized by an
insurgency between the Taliban and affiliate groups against the Karzai government and its
ISAF allies, experienced terrorist assaults where the mean for deaths, presumably over the
128 December 2013

entire country, was only 2.57 (2,632/1,023), in comparison to the mean for injuries that was
not much higher at 3.63 (3,715/1,023). Clearly, these are rather crude indicators for the
reasons previously mentioned, but it is probably no exaggeration to say that the likelihood of
victimization by means of a terrorist assault is less than the likelihood for certain other
discrete acts of political violence such as sustained warfare or large scale natural disasters like
floods or pandemics.[16]
To reiterate, the problems associated with an assessment of accurate measures of risk across
different types of “man-made” or natural phenomena is from the start hampered in many data
compilations by the absence of more specific disaggregated data for specific geographical
locales and political factors such as holidays or commemoration of landmark events that are
inextricably bound up with increased risk.[17] Put another way, political events are a dynamic
and critically important part of any “contextual environment” and commemoration of major
or minor political events, landmark events, religious holidays, or secular holidays as well as
reactions to government assassinations or war may increase - or conceivably decrease by
means of “augmented security” - the likelihood of terrorist assaults and victimization.
Homicide Rates Worldwide

As if that were not enough of a problem, there is no standardized unit of measurement to
compare terrorism assault rates of death to rates of death for other calamitous events. To the
best of my knowledge, this appears to be the case for measurement across countries and
within particular countries, as there is no completed data set I am aware of that uniformly
drills down to “city-suburb/town/village” designations within regions of a country for the
broad spectrum of assaults under consideration, that also simultaneously promotes
standardization efforts across data compilations.[18] For example, the “Global Peace
Index-2013”(GPI) produced by the Institute for Economics Peace, reports that homicide rates
in the world increased precisely due to the fact that murder rates in South America, the
Caribbean, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Central America have risen, “....skewing what is the
declining trend for the rest of the world.”[19] In the Global Peace Index -2013, “Figure 1.14”
provides a rather broad brushed appraisal of the mean homicide rate for chosen GPI countries
that presumably derives from United Nations data.[20] The aggregate mean for the basket of
GPI countries reflects an average of relative frequencies of homicide per 100,000 of the
population for the 2008-2013 interval.
129 December 2013

This chart reflects findings where a basket of GPI countries had a mean of 6.7 murders per
100,000 of the population in 2008, by contrast to slightly less in 2009. A spike begins from
2009-2010, and the murder rate per 100,000 people continues to increase with an average rate
of 10.9 per 100,000 in 2013. At this moment in time, there is no effective way to compare data
on terrorism offered by START’s GTD- Department of State cited earlier to the aggregate
country homicide rates provided by the “Global Peace Index 2013” study because of
standardization measurement problems.[21] In the broader sense, this is an underlying
problem with many data sets that makes comparisons of relative frequencies of events and
next, calculating accurate risk assessment exceedingly difficult.
At the same time, it is probably no exaggeration to say that while environmental infrastructure
effects, such as economic blight, overcrowding and crime, coupled with family and small
group interactions motivate a very small percentage of individuals to “act out” based on
political motivations (i.e., terrorism) by contrast to a somewhat larger percentage who engage
in common criminal activity, the number of people exposed to economic blight conditions
and disruptions in family and social circles but who somehow navigate through by means of
self medication (i.e., drugs or alcohol) is far greater.[22] In turn, that suggests that such
effective and sustained environmental pressures have greater effects on a larger segment of
society with continuous duration thereby in effect making rates of homicide, rape, and suicide
as well as other crimes a more significant cause for concern than terrorism when thinking
about the chances of victimization.
130 December 2013

A Comparison: Intentionally Inflicted Deaths and Other Forms of Violent Death

Much of the data compiled in the “Global Burden of Armed Violence 2011” report are
consistent with the aforementioned data compiled by the “Global Peace Index”.[23]
In the broadest sense, those findings chronicle that out of 526,000 violent deaths worldwide
from 2004-2009, some 75.285% or 396,000 were classified as “intentional homicides,” by
contrast to 54,000 or some 10.26% of the total that are classified as “unintentional homicides.”
In turn, 21,000 deaths or almost 4.0% of the total amount are classified as “killings during legal
interventions,” defined by the “Global Burden of Armed Violence 2011” report as “...violent
deaths of civilians by law enforcement and state security forces during legal interventions
-....”[24] What seems significant here is that only some 10.45 % of violent deaths
(55,000/526,000) happened within the context of “direct conflict deaths” (i.e., “terrorist
activities” and/or “conflict settings”) and that is only 1,000 more chronicled cases compared to
the 54,000 “unintentional homicides” chronicled. [25] At the same time, the term “terrorist
activities” is an extremely imprecise and nebulous term; it might conceivably include deaths of
civilians in counterterror assaults or civilian deaths as terrorists prepare explosives improperly.
That sort of imprecision might skew results in data replication efforts. Notwithstanding that,
based on “Global Burden of Armed Violence” data, the amount of death associated with
common criminal activity (i.e., “interpersonal violence,” “gang violence,” “economically
131 December 2013

motivated crime”) far exceeds, by a factor of at least 7.2, the amount of death associated with
terrorism (55,000 X 7.2 = 396,000).
In turn, additional data from the “Global Burden of Armed Violence 2011” provides a
breakdown by country and region of “violent death per 100,000 of population” from 2004 to
2009.” It identifies 58 countries with 10 or more violent deaths per 100,000 of a country’s
population. The five countries that are found to have the highest annual “violent death” rate
per 100,000 of the population are: El Salvador (62.0), Iraq (60.0), Jamaica (58.1), Honduras
(49.0), and Colombia (44.5). In addition, those data illustrate that many countries with
comparatively high rates of “violent deaths” per 100,000 of the population are found in the
developing world. The glaring exceptions are Puerto Rico and the Russian Federation that are
found to have a “violent death” rate of about 20 per 100,000 of the populace and 17.2 per
100,000 respectively.[26] To put those results in some perspective, the World Health
Organization (WHO) “Leading Cause of Death” global statistics for 2011 report that the risk
of “lower respiratory infections” that result in death is “46 deaths per 100,000 population,” by
contrast to “43 deaths per 100,000 population” elicited by “chronic obstructive pulmonary
disease.”[27]
The WHO report illustrates that almost one third of those countries (27.5% or 16/58 states)
has been characterized by a “main armed conflict” or one that has recently passed into eclipse.
In 10 of those 16 states, “...the incidence of homicide is actually greater than the number of
direct conflict deaths.”[28] The underlying focus on intra-national violence as opposed to
interstate war dovetails well with the perspective taken by Cooper, Merz, and Shah’s work
where specific sets of empirical findings are framed by descriptions and statistics that point to
a general decrease in international conflict and the intensity of warfare deaths in the
contemporary world.[29]
The Interlocking Condition of Natural Disasters, Illness, and Violence

Turning to the matter of comparison between murder rates, other forms of violent events, and
deaths from illness and environmental factors, it is clear that illness and deaths from so-called
“natural factors” are inextricably bound up with one another; man-made environmental
factors or “natural” ecological dynamics are influenced by human behaviour.[30] For example
there are a series of cities in China where it is commonplace to note that cancer rates and, by
extrapolation cancer related deaths are extremely high. Such figures point to the ineluctable
conclusion that a more holistic or systems-wide set of approaches for thinking about risk is
called for, to elicit the generation of cumulative statistics of deaths for a more accurate
appraisal of death risks. Indeed, it is entirely possible that government negligence or
malfeasance associated with environmental disaster areas could spawn political terrorism or
deaths related to criminal activities in some countries. To be sure, the Chinese example also
underscores the essential need for analysis by region or city clusters including efforts to isolate
132 December 2013

and identify modalities between types of death outcomes and complex sources and origins of
causal factors.
Much of the data available from IGO and NGO sources about death from illness is also
comprised of aggregate data by country or region.[31] At the same time, it is probably no
exaggeration to say that disaggregated data is more intrinsic to methodologies in this public
policy domain as specific geographical locales afflicted with such problems are oftentimes
almost the sole focus of many studies. In the case of broader overviews of death rates from
illness by region, WHO statistics for the single most predominant causes of death provide
numerical amounts and percentage rates.
For example, there were 1,018,000 “cardiovascular diseases” related deaths in the “African
Region” in 2011 or 10.7 % of the total number of deaths (9,538,000) across articulated “cause”
categories. In a similar vein, there were 1,859,000 cardiovascular disease related deaths in the
“Region of the Americas” that comprised 29.5% of the 6,302,000 deaths total across categories.
Plainly, we can extrapolate that the scope of deaths for illness by region eclipses rates for
terrorist assaults.
Final Reflections
There are several underlying themes throughout this Research Note that deserve attention.
First, there is a significant difference between risk appraisal and the presentation of cumulative
133 December 2013

statistics about terrorism, related events, and a variety of natural calamities caused by illness -
be it directly or as a result of other natural events such as tornadoes, flood, earthquakes, or
hurricanes. All too frequently, there is no standardized unit of measurement available to make
even the roughest comparisons between frequency rates, let alone intensity magnitude rates.
As if that were not enough of a problem, there are different ways of appraising risk: the notions
of “risk of ” and “risk to” that Shields described are only two conceptualizations of risk. Indeed,
that condition parallels the many and competing definitions of the notion of “resiliency”
found in the literature.[32] In future endeavors, scholars might have to develop parallel
conceptualizations of risk appraisal for what Zinnes would call “integrative” studies.[33] This
is also warranted by the fact that relative occurrences of terrorist attacks and/or death,
homicide and different types of illnesses are usually associated with broader “conflict
conditions”- a term which itself is problematic as all societies are plagued with social,
economic, and political inequalities and consequently, a host of “conflict conditions.”[34]
At the same time, the problem or set of challenges and opportunities is much more
fundamental and even more complex. Plainly, we can extrapolate from some of the data
presented to see how “feedback loops” between disease and malnutrition (e.g., malnutrition
leads to illness; a mother who is ill cannot provide for children who become malnourished),
indirect pathways of effect between “disease” and “malnutrition,” and “educational attainment”
influence outcomes.[35] Indeed, it is not difficult to see how links between lack of educational
attainment, and the low socio-economic status (SES) that follows, can lead to a condition of
“frustration-aggression” that for some, but certainly not all, may lead to criminality and for a
smaller number, to terrorism or other forms of political violence.[36]
As previously mentioned, it is not difficult to conceive of a situation where government

mismanagement or malfeasance with respect to public policy (e.g., pollutants, resource
distribution) could trigger both non-violent demonstrations and the use of force from those
affected directly or indirectly. What this means is that in the future, more holistic models that
take into account different frameworks (e.g., issue areas such as malnutrition, illness, suicide,
socioeconomic status, terrorism, refugee and internally displaced persons) and the set of
interconnections within each and across such frameworks, should be crafted with
standardized units of measurement, thereby in effect working to delineate sub-systems of
cause and effect.[37] Such a “systems approach” to thinking about the effect and risk of
terrorism, whether it uses a “complex” pathway analysis methodology over and beyond one
directional path analysis, or some other methodology, is a goal worthy of future research
endeavors.
About the Author: Richard J. Chasdi is Associate Professor of Management in the Department
of Management at Walsh College, Troy, Michigan. He is a participating faculty member in the
newly established Center for Strategic Analysis and Assessment (CSSA) led by Professor Sheila R.
Ronis and Walsh College. The CSSA derives from the Project on National Security Reform
(PNSR), a bipartisan Washington, DC based policy group focused on national security reform.
134 December 2013

Notes
[1] John Mueller (2004). “A False Sense of Insecurity?” Regulation. Fall, pp. 42-46.
[2] John Monahan (2011). “The Individual Risk Assessment of Terrorism” In Psychology, Public Policy, and Law. 10 October. (Online First
Publication doi:10.1037/a0025792), pp. 14-17.
[3] Ibid, pp. 15-16, 13, 6-8.
[4] Ibid., p. 16.
[5] For instance, Alex Schmid defines “risk” as “the degree of danger associated with a given operation, course of action, or failure to act in a
crisis situation,” adding, that “for mathematical modeling purposes, risk is often expressed as the probability of an unwanted occurrence
multiplied by the severity of its consequences.” – Alex P. Schmid. The Routledge Handbook of Terrorism Research. London & New York:
Routledge, 2011, p. 683.
[6] Jervis, Robert (1976). Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
[7] J. Monahan (2011), pp. 6n7, 4. – A. P. Schmid describes “risk assessment” in terms of “calculation and/or simulation of the degree of
danger attached to a course of action for the purpose of uncertainty reduction.” – A. P. Schmid, op. cit., p. 683.
[8] J. Monahan, op.cit. ,pp. 20, 17-18, 27-28.
[9] J. Monahan, op. cit., pp. 17, 14-15. Plainly, such data about rates murder and terrorist assaults by region and city do exist but there is a
problem with standardization across studies that include coding issues. That emergent reality is what Dina A. Zinnes might call a condition
with an emphasis on “cumulative” rather than on “integrative” processes. Dina A. Zinnes (1976). “The Problem of Cumulation” In Search of
Global Patterns, Ed. James Rosenau New York: Free Press; Dina A. Zinnes. (1976). Contemporary Research in International Relations: A
Perspective and a Critical Appraisal. New York: Free Press.
[10] Richard J. Chasdi (2010). Counterterror Offensives for the Ghost War World: The Rudiments of Counterterrorism Policy. Lanham, MD:
Lexington Books; Richard J. Chasdi (2002). Tapestry of Terror: A Portrait of Middle East Terrorism, 1994-1999. Lanham, MD: Lexington
Books; Richard J. Chasdi (1999). Serenade of Suffering: A Portrait of Middle East Terrorism, 1968-1993. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books.
[11] Tara Cooper, Sebastian Merz, and Mila Shah (2011). “A More Violent World? Global Trends in Organized Violence.” In Berghof
Handbook for Conflict Transformation. Bergohof Foundation 42 (http://www.berghof-handbook.net/)
[12] U.S. Department of State. “National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism: Annex of Statistical
Information, Office of the Coordinator of Counterterrorism, Country Reports on Terrorism 2012 Report, May 30, 2013.”
[13] Ibid.
[14] One research project that attempts some of this is the “Global Black Spots – Mapping Global Insecurity Program”, conducted at Syracuse
University in the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs. Dr. Bartosz Hieronim Stanislawski Research Fellow, Moynihan Institute of
Global Affairs and Institute for National Security and Counterterrorism e-mail correspondence, November 29, 2010; December 14, 2010.
[15] R. Chasdi (2010), op. cit.
[16] Khusrav Gaibulloev and Todd Sandler (2008). “The Impact of Terrorism and Conflicts on Growth in Asia, 1970-2004.” ADBI Institute
Discussion Paper No., pp. 113 & 6. (http:www.adbi.org/files/dp113.terrorism.impact.growth.asia.1970.2004.pdf). Still, terrorist assaults have
degrees of underlying economic cost. According to Gaibulloev and Sandler, in “Western Europe...each additional transnational terrorist
incident per million persons reduced economic growth by about 0.4 percentage points in a given year.” In the case of Israel, Gaibulloev and
Sandler describe a study in 2004 by Eckstein and Tsiddon that illuminates, “....that Israel lost 10% of its per capita income during the three-
year intifada beginning in the fourth quarter of 2000. In effect, terrorism reduced Israeli economic growth to zero during this violent era.”
[17] Richard J. Chasdi (1999). Serenade of Suffering: A Portrait of Middle East Terrorism: 1968-1993. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books; Richard
J. Chasdi (2002). Tapestry of Terror: A Portrait of Middle East Terrorism, 1994-1999. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books.
[18] This type of “geo-spatial analysis” with “integrative” approaches to analysis of “contextual factors” is now undertaken at Argonne
National Laboratories. At Walsh College, the newly established Center for Strategic Analysis and Assessment (CSAA) will partner with
Argonne National Laboratories to conduct a series of research projects that use a systems analysis approach to delve into broader national
security policy issues.
[19] Institute for Economics & Peace (2013), p. 40.
[20] One would expect that for homicide, the quintessential crime, reliable data are available worldwide. However, that is not the case. As Jan
van Dijk has pointed out, “....police-recorded homicide rates suffer to some extent from the same flaws of underreporting and poor recording
as other police-recorded crime statistics. In countries where security forces are among the main perpetrators of violent crimes, reporting and
recording will be low. In many developing countries, administrative systems and communication infrastructures of police services preclude
proper recording of even the most serious types of crime.(...)”....in developing countries, even for as serious a crime as homicide, a significant
proportion of crimes committed is never reported to the police or never recorded. In many developing countries, even police-recorded
homicides have their dark numbers.” – J.v. Dijk. The World of Crime: Breaking the Silence on Problems of Security, Justice, and Development
Across the World. Los Angeles, Sage Publications 2008, pp. 75-76.
[21] An additional problem is the quality of medical services: Attempted murder rates in two countries might be the same but in the country
with better medical emergency services the survival rate is likely to be much higher.
135 December 2013

[22] J. Monahan, op. cit., p. 21; Larry J. Siegel and Chris McCormick (2010). Criminology in Canada: Theories, Patterns, and Typologies; Fourth
Edition. Toronto, Ontario: Nelson Education Ltd; Albert J. Reiss Jr. and Jeffrey A. Roth. (Eds.) (1993). Understanding and Preventing Violence.
Washington, DC: National Academy Press; David P. Barash and Charles P. Webel (2002). Peace and Conflict Studies. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage
Publications.
[23] Global Burden of Armed Violence 2011 report (www.genevadeclaration.org); Blogs.worldbank.org (http://blogs.worldbank.org/
publicsphere/today-s-grimfographic-how-many-people-die-violent-death-where-and-how#comment-1384); Institute for Economics & Peace.
(2013).
[24] “Global Burden of Armed Violence” (2011), pp. 44 & 51. In contrast, “intentional homicides” are defined in this compilation as, “...deaths
as a result of interpersonal violence, gang violence, economically motivated crime -....” In turn, “unintentional homicides” are defined as,
“...deaths as a result of ‘accidental killings’ -....” Lastly, “direct conflict deaths” are defined as “...deaths as a result of armed conflicts, political
violence, and terrorism - ...” This last category seems problematic as both “and” and “or” appear to be used in that “Global Burden of Armed
Violence” report.
[25] Ibid. We are told that, “the GBAV database – a comprehensive database on lethal violence covering the years 2004-09 highlights that, on
average, an estimated 526,000 people died violently....”
[26] Ibid., p. 53.
[27] World Health Organization. “WHO regions,” “Disease and Injury Regional Mortality Estimates for 2000-2011.” (http://www.who.int/
healthinfo/global_burden_disease/estimates_regional/en/index.html).
[28]“Global Burden of Armed Violence 2011,” p. 52.
[29] T. Cooper, S. Merz, and M. Shah (2011). op. cit.
[30]Ibid., pp. 25-26.
[31] For example, see “Lifetime odds for selected causes, United States 2009” where the top three conditions that elicited death include (1)
“Heart disease 1 in 7 (14.2%)”; “Cancer 1 in 7” (14.2%); (2) “Chronic lower respiratory disease 1 in 28” (3.6 %) (3) “Intentional self-harm 1 in
106” or a little less than 1.0%. (http:img.gawkerassets.com/img/18uzs80jqyy7agif/original.gif).To be sure, those empirical results would be
more informative if underlying distinctions were made by race, gender, socio-economic status, region, and urban/rural distinctions to reflect
subtleties and nuances.
[32] Richard J. Chasdi (2013). “A ‘Resiliency Continuum’ of Terrorist Assaults at the Nation-State Level of Analysis.” Armed Forces and Society,
March 7 (Online First:doi10.1177/0095327X1247) (publication pending).
[33] Zinnes (1976a); Zinnes (1976b).
[34] Institute for Economics & Peace. “Global Peace Index 2013- Measuring the State of Global Peace.” New York: pp. 40-43, 1-2(http://
www.visionofhumanity.org/pdf/gpi/2013_Global_Peace_Index_Report.pdf); “Global Peace Index 2013: the full list.” Datablog: Facts are
sacred. (http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2013/jun/11/global-peace-index-2013?goback=%2Egde_1841466_member_250542686).
Presumably, these terms refer to “violent,” namely physical conflict, but of course violence is a continuous variable marked by degrees; it is not
a dichotomous variable. The terms “domestic conflict,” “local conflict,” as well as “international conflict” are used in that publication for
example,
[35] British Broadcasting Corporation. 2013. “Malnutrition hits school performance, Warns Save the Children.” 27 May (http:www.bbc.co.uk/
news/world-22685208#story_continues_1); A. Reiss and J. Ross (1993), op. cit., pp. 296-298, 304.
[36] A. Reiss and J. Ross, op. cit.; John Dollard, Leonard W. Doob, Neal E. Miller, O.H. Mowrer, and Robert R. Sears (1939). Frustration and
Aggression. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
[37] David L. Sallach (2013). “Topos Modeling of Social Conflict: Theory and Methods.” Computational institute, Argonne National
Laboratories, Argonne IL; University of Chicago, Chicago, IL., 1-13; Molly M. Ginty (2013). “Analysis: pollution risks worse for developing
world women.” UPI.com (http://www.upi.comTop_News/Analysis/2013/05/20/Pollution-risks-worse-for-developing-world-women/
WEN-3621369080433/); BBC News World. 2013. “More than seven million refugees displaced in 2012 – UN” (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/
world-22963060?print=true); Monahan (2011), 22. It follows from Monahan’s work that what amounts to a “systems approach” or perhaps a
“sub-systems approach” is articulated by Ginges, Hansen, and Norenzayan (2009) who inform us in their “coalitional commitment
hypothesis” that religion serves as an indirect explanatory factor in suicide terrorist assaults. Monahan suggests that is the case precisely
because religious frameworks, but not necessarily religious observance, essentially craft or reinforce what Choi and Bowles (2007) call
“parochial altruism.”
136 December 2013

IV. Resources
Literature on the Conflict in Syria (2011 – November 2013)
Compiled and selected by Judith Tinnes
Abstract
This bibliography contains journal articles, book chapters, books, edited volumes, theses, grey
literature, bibliographies and other resources on the Syrian conflict. To keep up with the rapid
changing political events, more recent publications have been prioritized during the selection
process. The literature has been retrieved by manually browsing more than 200 core and
periphery sources in the field of Terrorism Studies. Additionally, full-text and reference retrieval
systems have been employed to expand the search.
NB: All websites were last visited on 17.11.2013. - See also Note for the Reader at the end of
this literature list.
Keywords: bibliography, resources, literature, Syria, conflict, uprising, civil war, Assad regime
Bibliographies and other Resources

Adelson, Samuel (2013, May): Annotated Bibliography for Syria. (Model Arab League Research
Resources). URL: http://ncusar.org/modelarableague/resources/Annotated-Bibliography-
Syria.pdf
Brown Moses Blog (2012-). URL: http://brown-moses.blogspot.co.uk/
Carnegie Middle East Center (2012-): Guide to Syria in Crisis. URL: http://carnegie-mec.org/
specialprojects/SyriainCrisis/?type=analysis&lang=en
Global Observatory (2013, June 24): A Resource Guide to the Syrian Conflict. URL: http://
theglobalobservatory.org/reports/522-a-resource-guide-to-the-syrian-conflict.html
Lynch, Marc (2013, September 4): A Syria Reading List. Abu Aardvark's Middle East Blog.
URL: http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/09/04/a_syria_reading_list
Rogalski, Jürgen; Hasenmüller, Monika (2013, March): Länderspezifische Analysen und

Kommentare: Syrien. In: Aktuelle Kurzbibliographie. URL: http://www.swp-berlin.org/de/swp-
themendossiers/umbruch-in-der-arabischen-welt/aktuelle-kurzbibliographie/
laenderspezifische-analysen-und-kommentare.html#c4415
Syria Deeply (2012-). URL: http://beta.syriadeeply.org
Syrian Studies Association (n.d.): Syrian Studies Association Bulletin. URL: https://
ojcs.siue.edu/ojs/index.php/ssa/index
137 December 2013

Books and Edited Volumes

Ajami, Fouad (2012): The Syrian Rebellion. (Hoover Institution Press Publication No. 624).
Stanford: Hoover Institution Press.
Armbruster, Jörg (2013): Brennpunkt Nahost: Die Zerstörung Syriens und das Versagen des
Westens. Frankfurt: Westend.
Haney, Antoine; Nicholson, Carter M. (Eds.) (2013): Conflict Zones: Syria and Mali. (Global
Political Studies). Hauppauge: Nova Science.
Hashemi, Nader; Postel, Danny (Eds.) (2013): The Syria Dilemma. (Boston Review Books).
Cambridge: The MIT Press.
Heydemann, Steven; Leenders, Reinoud (Eds.) (2013): Middle East Authoritarianisms:

Governance, Contestation, and Regime Resilience in Syria and Iran. (Stanford Studies in Middle
Eastern and Islamic Societies and Cultures). Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Hokayem, Emile (2013): Syria's Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant. (Adelphi Series).
Abingdon: Routledge.
Khatib, Line (2011): Islamic Revivalism in Syria: The Rise and Fall of Ba'thist Secularism.
(Routledge Studies in Political Islam, Vol. 7). Abingdon: Routledge.
Lawson, Fred H. (2013): Global Security Watch: Syria. Santa Barbara: Praeger.
Lefèvre, Raphaël (2013): Ashes of Hama: The Muslim Brotherhood in Syria. New York: Oxford
University Press.
Lesch, David W. (2012): Syria: The Fall of the House of Assad. New Haven: Yale University
Press.
Pierret, Thomas (2013): Religion and State in Syria: The Sunni Ulama from Coup to Revolution.
(Cambridge Middle East Studies, Vol. 41). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Starr, Stephen (2012): Revolt in Syria: Eye-Witness to the Uprising. London: Hurst.
van Dam, Nikolaos (2011): The Struggle for Power in Syria: Politics and Society under Asad and
the Ba'th Party. (Rev. 4th ed.). London: I.B. Tauris.
Yazbek, Samar (2012): A Woman in the Crossfire: Diaries of the Syrian Revolution. [Translated
by Max Weiss]. London: Haus Publishing.
Ziadeh, Radwan (2013): Power and Policy in Syria: Intelligence Services, Foreign Relations and
Democracy in the Modern Middle East. (Rev. ed.). London: I.B. Tauris.
138 December 2013

Theses
Akkerhuis, Dianne (2013, August): Western vs. Muslim Media on the Civil War in Syria: An
Empirical Analysis of Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations. (Master's Thesis, Utrecht University,
Utrecht, The Netherlands). URL: http://igitur-archive.library.uu.nl/student-theses/
2013-0927-200954/UUindex.html
Back, Peter (2013, June): "We are all Hamza Alkhateeb": En analyse af voldelige billeder og
sociale medier i den syriske borgerkrig. (Master's Thesis, Roskilde University, Roskilde,
Denmark). URL: http://rudar.ruc.dk/handle/1800/11034
Bagherpour, Amir K. (2012, Spring): Religion and the Evolution of Democracy: A Revised
Selectorate Model for the Arab Spring. (Doctoral Dissertation, Claremont Graduate University,
Claremont, United States). URL: http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgu_etd/53/
Corro, Megan Catherine (2013, March): The Arab Uprisings and the Unveiling of the Shiite
Crescent. (Master's Thesis, Georgetown University, Washington DC, United States). URL:
http://m.repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/558369
Dunnam, Stephanie (2012, Summer): Wishful Thinking: In Search for a Comprehensive

Understanding of Humanitarian Intervention. (Master's Thesis, Utrecht University, Utrecht,
The Netherlands). URL: http://igitur-archive.library.uu.nl/student-theses/2012-0815-200512/
UUindex.html
Eivazian-Tabrizi, Arby (2012, Fall): The Role of Foreign Intervention in Revolutions. (Master's
Thesis, San Diego State University, San Diego, United States). URL: http://sdsu-
dspace.calstate.edu/handle/10211.10/3203
Fondren, Billy R. (2009, March): The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Jordan and Syria: A
Comparison. (Master's Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, United States). URL:
http://calhoun.nps.edu/public/handle/10945/4854
Gilbert, Victoria J. (2013, May): Syria for the Syrians: The Rise of Syrian Nationalism,
1970-2013. (Master's Thesis, Northeastern University, Boston, United States). URL: http://
www.academia.edu/3432163/
Syria_for_the_Syrians_The_Rise_of_Syrian_Nationalism_1970-2013
Halderman, Frank Douglas (2013, April): Issue Indivisibility as an Explanatory Model for the
Arab Spring. (Master's Thesis, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada). URL:
https://circle.ubc.ca/handle/2429/44406
Hasler, Stefan (2012, June): Explaining Humanitarian Intervention in Libya and Non-
Intervention in Syria. (Master’s Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, United States).
URL: http://calhoun.nps.edu/public/handle/10945/7355
139 December 2013

Khatib, Line (2010): Islamic and Islamist Revivalism in Syria: The Rise and Fall of Secularism in
Ba'thist Syria. (Doctoral Dissertation, McGill University, Montreal, Canada). URL: http://
digitool.library.mcgill.ca/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=94949
Maddox, Jacob M. (2013, March): Building Peace in a Post-Assad Syria. (Master’s Thesis, Naval
Postgraduate School, Monterey, United States). URL: http://calhoun.nps.edu/public/bitstream/
handle/10945/32859/13Mar_Maddox_Jacob.pdf
Poltoratskaia, Tatiana (2010, December): Russia’s Role in the Middle East: Russian Weapons
Sales to the Syrian Arab Republic 1950-2010. (Master's Thesis, The University of Texas at
Austin, Austin, United States). URL: http://repositories.lib.utexas.edu/handle/2152/ETD-
UT-2010-12-2508
Silverstein, Shayna Mei (2012, July): Mobilizing Bodies in Syria: Dabke, Popular Culture, and
the Politics of Belonging. (Doctoral Dissertation, University of Chicago, Chicago, United
States). Available from ProQuest Dissertations and Theses database. (UMI No. 3513514)
Journal Articles and Book Chapters

Abboud, Samer N. (2013): Economic Transformation and Diffusion of Authoritarian Power in
Syria. In: Larbi Sadiki; Heiko Wimmen; Layla Al-Zubaidi (Eds.): Democratic Transition in the
Middle East: Unmaking Power. Abingdon: Routledge, 159-177.
Abrams, Sam (2013, June): Aiding Opposition Civilian Authority in Syria. Small Wars Journal,
7/2013. URL: http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/aiding-opposition-civilian-authority-in-
syria
Abu Ahmad. George (2013, Summer): Order, Freedom and Chaos: Sovereignties in Syria.
Middle East Policy, 20(2), 47-54. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12019
Adelkah, Nima (2013, February): If Syria is Attacked, will Iran Retaliate? Terrorism Monitor,
11(4), 4-5. URL: http://www.jamestown.org/uploads/media/TM_011_Issue04.pdf
al-Gharbi, Musa (2013, Spring): Syria Contextualized: The Numbers Game. Middle East Policy,
20(1), 56-67. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12003
Al-Hardan, Anaheed (2012): A Year on: The Palestinians in Syria. Syrian Studies Association
Bulletin, 17(1). URL: https://ojcs.siue.edu/ojs/index.php/ssa/article/view/2720
Allison, Roy (2013, July): Russia and Syria: Explaining Alignment with a Regime in Crisis.
International Affairs, 89(4), 795-823. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-2346.12046 URL:
http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/International%20Affairs/
2013/89_4/89_4_01_Allison.pdf
140 December 2013

al-Shishani, Murad Batal (2012, November): Jihad in Syria: A Profile of Jabhat al-Nusra.
Terrorism Monitor, 10(22), 4-6. URL: http://www.jamestown.org/uploads/media/
TM_010_Issue22_01.pdf
al-Shishani, Murad Batal (2013, January): Syria Emerges as a New Battlefield for Jordan’s
Jihadists. Terrorism Monitor, 11(1), 4-5. URL: http://www.jamestown.org/uploads/media/
al-Shishani, Murad Batal (2013, April): “Obliged to Unite under One Banner”: A Profile of
Syria’s Jaysh al-Muhajireen wa’l-Ansar. Terrorism Monitor, 11(8), 4-5. URL: http://
www.jamestown.org/uploads/media/TM_011_Issue08_01.pdf
al-Shishani, Murad Batal (2013, September): Syrian Jihadists React to the Threat of U.S.
Military Intervention. Terrorism Monitor, 11(18), 4-5. URL: http://www.jamestown.org/
uploads/media/TM_011_Issue18_01.pdf
Álvarez-Ossorio, Ignacio (2013): Evolution and Outlook of the Syrian Crisis. In: European
Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) (Ed.) (2013): Mediterranean Yearbook 2013. Barcelona:
IEMed, 13-17. URL: http://www.iemed.org/observatori-en/arees-danalisi/arxius-adjunts/
anuari/iemed-2013/Alvarez%20Ossorio%20Syrian%20Crisis%20EN.pdf
Anzalone, Christopher (2013, July): Zaynab’s Guardians: The Emergence of Shià Militias in
Syria. CTC Sentinel, 6(7), 16-21. URL: http://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/
CTCSentinel-Vol6Iss7.pdf
Asseburg, Muriel (2013): Syria’s Civil War: Geopolitical Implications and Scenarios. In:
European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) (Ed.) (2013): Mediterranean Yearbook 2013.
Barcelona: IEMed, 18-23. URL: http://www.iemed.org/observatori-es/arees-danalisi/arxius-
adjunts/anuari/iemed-2013/Asseburg%20Syria%20Geopolitical%20Implications%20EN.pdf
Asseburg, Muriel (2013, February): Syrien: Ziviler Protest, Aufstand, Bürgerkrieg und
Zukunftsaussichten. Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte, 63(8/2013), 11-17. URL: http://
www.bpb.de/system/files/dokument_pdf/APuZ_2013-08_online.pdf
Awad, Najib George (2012): The Christians and the “Islamist Threat” Theory: Reflections on
Syria (1). In: And Freedom Became a Public-Square: Political, Sociological and Religious
Overviews on the Arab Christians and the Arabic Spring. (Studien zur Orientalischen
Kirchengeschichte, Vol. 46). Zürich: LIT Verlag, 84-101.
Awad, Najib George (2012): The Christians and the “Islamist Threat” Theory: Reflections on
Syria (2). In: And Freedom Became a Public-Square: Political, Sociological and Religious
Overviews on the Arab Christians and the Arabic Spring. (Studien zur Orientalischen
Kirchengeschichte, Vol. 46). Zürich: LIT Verlag, 102-122.
141 December 2013

Bank, André; Mohns, Erik (2013): Die syrische Revolte. In: Annette Jünemann; Anja Zorob
(Eds.): Arabellions: Zur Vielfalt von Protest und Revolte im Nahen Osten und Nordafrika.
Wiesbaden: Springer, 85-106. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-19273-4_5
Barfi, Barak; Zelin, Aaron Y. (2013, October 10): Al Qaeda's Syrian Strategy: Can Islamic
Jihadists Win Hearts and Minds in the War against Assad? Foreign Policy. URL: http://
www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/10/10/al_qaeda_s_syrian_strategy
Bartell, Dawn L.; Gray, David H. (2012, Fall): Conflict in Syria and the Opportunity to Reduce
Iran’s Regional Influence and Iran’s Threat to the International Community. Global Security
Studies, 3(4), 136-147. URL: http://globalsecuritystudies.com/Bartell%20Syria.pdf
Batrawi, Samar (2013, October): The Dutch Foreign Fighter Contingent in Syria. CTC Sentinel,
6(10), 6-10. URL: http://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/CTCSentinel-
Vol6Iss10.pdf
Bickel, Markus (2013, February): Syrien, Iran, Hisbollah, Hamas: Bröckelt die Achse? Aus
Politik und Zeitgeschichte, 63 (8/2013), 30-36. URL: http://www.bpb.de/system/files/
dokument_pdf/APuZ_2013-08_online.pdf
Bishku, Michael B. (2012, Fall): Turkish-Syrian Relations: A Checkered History. Middle East
Policy, 19 (3), 36-53. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4967.2012.00546.x
Blanford, Nicholas (2013, August): The Battle for Qusayr: How the Syrian Regime and Hizb
Allah Tipped the Balance. CTC Sentinel, 6 (8), 18-22. URL: http://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-
content/uploads/2013/08/CTCSentinel-Vol6Iss8.pdf
Blank, Laurie R.; Corn, Geoffrey S. (2013, May): Losing the Forest for the Trees: Syria, Law,
and the Pragmatics of Conflict Recognition. Vanderbilt Journal of Transnational Law, 46(3),
693-746. URL: http://www.vanderbilt.edu/jotl/2013/05/losing-the-forest-for-the-trees-syria-
law-and-the-pragmatics-of-conflict-recognition/
Carey, Sabine C.; Mitchell, Neil J.; Lowe, Will (2013, March): States, the Security Sector, and
the Monopoly of Violence: A New Database on Pro-Government Militias. Journal of Peace
Research, 50 (2), 249-258. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343312464881
Carlino, Ludovico (2012, December): Jihadists Exploit Syrian Turmoil as the Islamic State of
Iraq Makes a Comeback. Terrorism Monitor, 10 (23), 7-9. URL: http://www.jamestown.org/
uploads/media/TM_010_Issue23.pdf
Casula, Philipp (2013, June): Civil War, Revolution or Counter-Insurgency? The Syrian
Conflict through Russian Eyes. Russian Analytical Digest, 128, 4-7. URL: http://
mercury.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/165529/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/
c74f93a7-c54f-40bc-8bb9-0aa0fae46ad9/en/Russia+in+the+Syrian+Conflict.pdf
Catusse, Myriam (2013): When the Syrian Crisis Sheds Light on the Lebanese Crises. In:
European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) (Ed.) (2013): Mediterranean Yearbook 2013.
142 December 2013

Barcelona: IEMed, 196-199. URL: http://www.iemed.org/observatori-es/arees-danalisi/arxius-

adjunts/anuari/iemed-2013/Catusse%20Syrian%20Crisis%20Lebanon%20Crisis%20EN.pdf
Coleman, Michael (2013, Summer): The Rising Tide of Syria. Global Security Studies, 4(3),
15-42. URL: http://globalsecuritystudies.com/Coleman%20Syria-AG.pdf
Dahi, Omar S.; Munif, Yasser (2012, August): Revolts in Syria: Tracking the Convergence
between Authoritarianism and Neoliberalism. Journal of Asian and African Studies, 47(4),
323-332. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0021909611431682
Dawisha, Adeed (2013): Lions and Savages: Syria. In: The Second Arab Awakening: Revolution,
Democracy, and the Islamist Challenge from Tunis to Damascus. New York: W. W. Norton &
Company, 179-204.
Demir, Sertif; Rijnoveanu, Carmen (2013, Summer): The Impact of the Syria Crisis on the
Global and Regional Political Dynamics. Türk Dünyası İncelemeleri Dergisi, 8 (1), 55-77. URL:
http://www.egeweb.ege.edu.tr/tdid/files/dergi_13/09.pdf
Demirtaş, Birgül (2013, Spring): Turkish-Syrian Relations: From Friend “Esad” to Enemy
“Esed”. Middle East Policy, 20 (1), 111-120. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12008
Denselow, James (2012, October): The Syria Balancing Act: Supporting Transition, Avoiding
Blowback. CTC Sentinel, 5 (10), 20-22. URL: http://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/
2012/10/CTCSentinel-Vol5Iss103.pdf
Dettmer, Jamie (2013, July): Syrian Jihadists Struggle for Supremacy in the Armed Opposition.
Donati, Caroline (2013): The Economics of Authoritarian Upgrading in Syria: Liberalization

and the Reconfiguration of Economic Networks. In: Steven Heydemann and Reinoud
Leenders (Eds.): Middle East Authoritarianisms: Governance, Contestation, and Regime
Resilience in Syria and Iran. (Stanford Studies in Middle Eastern and Islamic Societies and
Cultures). Stanford: Stanford University Press, 35-60.
Donker, Teije Hidde (2013): Islamic Social Movements and the Syrian Authoritarian Regime:
Shifting Patterns of Control and Accommodation. In: Steven Heydemann; Reinoud Leenders
(Eds.): Middle East Authoritarianisms: Governance, Contestation, and Regime Resilience in
Syria and Iran. (Stanford Studies in Middle Eastern and Islamic Societies and Cultures).
Stanford: Stanford University Press, 107-126.
Doornbos, Harald; Moussa, Jenan (2013, August 1): Blue-Eyed Jihad: An Exclusive
Conversation with European Radicals Fighting for an Islamic State in Syria. Foreign Policy.
URL: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/08/01/
we_will_win_this_fight_european_jihadists_syria
143 December 2013

Doran, Michael S.; Shaikh, Salman (2011): Syria: The Ghosts of Hama. In: Kenneth M. Pollack
et al. (2011): The Arab Awakening: America and the Transformation of the Middle East.
Washington DC: Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution, 230-242.
Dorsey, James M. (2012): Syrian Soccer Star Symbolizes Game’s Importance in Protests. Syrian
Studies Association Bulletin, 17 (1). URL: https://ojcs.siue.edu/ojs/index.php/ssa/article/view/
2721
Dunia, Khawla (2013): And the Demonstrations Go On: Diary of an Unfinished Revolution
(Syria). [Translated by Robin Moger]. In: Layla Al-Zubaidi; Matthew Cassel (Eds.): Writing
Revolution: The Voices from Tunis to Damascus. London: I.B. Tauris, 179-208.
Düvell, Franck (2013): Turkey, the Syrian Refugee Crisis and the Changing Dynamics of
Transit Migration. In: European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) (Ed.) (2013):
Mediterranean Yearbook 2013. Barcelona: IEMed, 278-281. URL: http://www.iemed.org/
observatori/arees-danalisi/arxius-adjunts/anuari/iemed-2013/Duvell%20Turkey%20Syrian
%20Refugees%20EN.pdf
Ehteshami, Anoushiravan et al. (2013): Authoritarian Resilience and International Linkages in

Iran and Syria. In: Steven Heydemann; Reinoud Leenders (Eds.): Middle East
Authoritarianisms: Governance, Contestation, and Regime Resilience in Syria and Iran.
(Stanford Studies in Middle Eastern and Islamic Societies and Cultures). Stanford: Stanford
University Press, 222-244.
Emadi, Hafizullah (2011): Requiem for the Baath Party: Struggle for Change and Freedom in
Syria. Mediterranean Quarterly, 22 (4), 62-79. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/
10.1215/10474552-1471512
Fildis, Ayse Tekdal (2012, Summer): Roots of Alawite-Sunni Rivalry in Syria. Middle East
Policy, 19(2), 148-156. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4967.2012.00541.x
Fishman, Brian (2007): Fighting Fire with Fire: Destroying the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.
In: James J. F. Forest (Ed.): Countering Terrorism and Insurgency in the 21st Century:
International Perspectives. (Vol. 3: Lessons from the Fight against Terrorism). Westport:
Praeger Security International, 430-442.
Fishman, Brian (2012, May): The Evidence of Jihadist Activity in Syria. CTC Sentinel, 5 (5),
4-10. URL: http://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/CTCSentinel-Vol5Iss5.pdf
Gavioli, Riccardo (2012): The Italian Reaction to the Syrian Crisis. Syrian Studies Association
Bulletin, 17(1). URL: https://ojcs.siue.edu/ojs/index.php/ssa/article/view/2718
Gelvin, James L. (2012): Two Surprises: Algeria and Syria. In: The Arab Uprisings: What
Everyone Needs to Know. New York: Oxford University Press, 93-118.
144 December 2013

Gerlach, Daniel; Metzger, Nils (2013, February): Männer, die auf Leichen starren: Wie unser
Bild vom Krieg in Syrien entsteht. Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte, 63 (8/2013), 3-11. URL:
http://www.bpb.de/system/files/dokument_pdf/APuZ_2013-08_online.pdf
Greig, J. Michael (2013, April): Intractable Syria? Insights from the Scholarly Literature on the
Failure of Mediation. Penn State Journal of Law & International Affairs, 2 (1), 48-56. URL:
http://elibrary.law.psu.edu/jlia/vol2/iss1/7/
Gudmundson, Per (2013, September): The Swedish Foreign Fighter Contingent in Syria. CTC
Sentinel, 6(9), 5-9. URL: http://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/CTCSentinel-
Vol6Iss9.pdf
Gunter, Michael M. (2013): The Kurdish Spring. Third World Quarterly, 34 (3), 441-457. DOI:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2013.785339
Habeeb, William Mark (2012): Syria. In: The Middle East in Turmoil: Conflict, Revolution, and
Change. (Hot Spot Histories). Santa Barbara: Greenwood, 181-206.
Hanano, Amal (2013): Framing Syria. In: Iskandar, Adel; Haddad, Bassam (Eds.): Mediating
the Arab Uprisings. Washington DC: Tadween Publishing, 58-65.
Hashim, Ahmed S. (2013, March): On the Road to Damascus? Jihadists in the Syrian Civil
War. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis, 5 (3), 11-15. URL: http://www.pvtr.org/pdf/CTTA/
2013/CTTA-March13.pdf
Hegghammer, Thomas; Zelin, Aaron Y. (2013, July 7): How Syria's Civil War Became a Holy
Crusade: One of the World's Most Influential Clerics Declares War. Foreign Affairs. URL:
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139557/thomas-hegghammer-aaron-y-zelin/how-
syrias-civil-war-became-a-holy-crusade
Heras, Nicholas A. (2013, March): A Divided Society: The Impact of the Syrian Crisis on
Lebanon. Terrorism Monitor, 11(5), 5-7. URL: http://www.jamestown.org/uploads/media/
Heras, Nicholas A. (2013, May): The Counter-Insurgency Role of Syria’s “Popular

Committees”. Terrorism Monitor, 11(9), 8-10. URL: http://www.jamestown.org/uploads/
media/TM_011_Issue09.pdf
Heras, Nicholas A. (2013, May): Syrian Turkmen Join Opposition Forces in Pursuit of a New
Syrian Identity. Terrorism Monitor, 11(11), 4-6. URL: http://www.jamestown.org/uploads/
media/TM_011_Issue11_05.pdf
Heras, Nicholas A. (2013, September): Kata’ib al-Farouq al-Islamiya: A Key Armed

Opposition Group in the Battle to Cut Assad Off from Damascus. Terrorism Monitor, 11(18),
5-7. URL: http://www.jamestown.org/uploads/media/TM_011_Issue18_02.pdf
145 December 2013

Heras, Nicholas A. (2013, October): The Battle for Syria’s Al-Hasakah Province. CTC Sentinel,
6 (10), 22-25. URL: http://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/CTCSentinel-
Vol6Iss10.pdf
Heydemann, Steven and Reinoud Leenders (2013): Authoritarian Governance in Syria and
Iran: Challenged, Reconfiguring, and Resilient. In: Steven Heydemann and Reinoud Leenders
(Eds.): Middle East Authoritarianisms: Governance, Contestation, and Regime Resilience in
Syria and Iran. (Stanford Studies in Middle Eastern and Islamic Societies and Cultures).
Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1-34.
Hinnebusch, Raymond (2012, January): Syria: From “Authoritarian Upgrading” to Revolution?

International Affairs, 88 (1), 95-113. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2346.2012.01059.x
URL: http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/International%20Affairs/
2012/88_1/88_1hinnebusch.pdf
Holtmann, Philipp (2013, June): Syria: A Best Case, a Worst Case and Two Most Likely
Scenarios. Perspectives on Terrorism, 7 (3), 135-146. URL: http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/
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Hummel, Stephen (2013, September): The Risk of Non-State Actors Acquiring Chemical
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Ziadeh, Radwan (2012): The Remnants of the Assad Regime. Syrian Studies Association
Bulletin, 17 (2). URL: https://ojcs.siue.edu/ojs/index.php/ssa/article/view/2799
Ziadeh, Radwan et al. (2012, Fall): Crisis in Syria: What are the U.S. Options? Middle East
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Zisser, Eyal (2013, Spring): Can Assad's Syria Survive Revolution? Middle East Quarterly, 20
(2), 65-71. URL: http://www.meforum.org/3529/assad-syria-revolution
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Grey Literature
Abboud. Samer (2013, August): Syria's Business Elite: Between Political Alignment and Hedging
their Bets. (SWP Comments 2013/C 22). URL: http://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publications/
swp-comments-en/swp-aktuelle-details/article/syrias_business_elite.html
Abramowitz, Morton I.; Edelman, Eric S. (2013, April): U.S.-Turkish Cooperation toward a
Post-Assad Syria. (BPC’s Turkey Task Force Paper). URL: http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/
default/files/BPC%20US-Turkey-Syria.pdf
Abrams, Elliott (2013, July): The Security Situation in the Syrian Arab Republic: Implications for
U.S. National Security and U.S. Policy Options. Testimony presented before the House Armed
Services Committee, United States House of Representatives, 1st Session, 113th Congress.
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Al-Saleh, Asaad; White, Loren (2013, June): Dissecting an Evolving Conflict: The Syrian
Uprising and the Future of the Country. (ISPU / NAF Report). URL: http://newamerica.net/
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Al-Zubaidi, Layla; Khoury, Doreen; Atassi, Mohammad Ali (Eds.) (2012, February): Syria's
Revolution: Society, Power, Ideology. (Heinrich Böll Stiftung Middle East Office, Perspectives,
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Amnesty International (2012, August): Syria: All-Out Repression: Purging Dissent in Aleppo,
Syria. (Report MDE 24/061/2012). URL: http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/info/
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Analysis Intelligence (2013, March 1): Guide to Syrian Rebel Media Spokespeople and PR. URL:
http://analysisintelligence.com/geopolitics/guide-to-syrian-rebel-leadership-and-pr/
Analysis Intelligence (2013, September 17): Update on Syrian Rebel Media Coordinators. URL:
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Anderson, Kenneth (2013, August): Legality of Intervention in Syria in Response to Chemical

Weapon Attacks. (ASIL Insights, Vol. 17, Iss. 21). URL: http://www.asil.org/insights/volume/
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Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS) (2011, May): The General and the
Particular in the Ongoing Syrian Popular Uprising. (Policy Analysis). URL: http://
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Syria’s Macroeconomy in 2012. (Policy Analysis). URL: http://english.dohainstitute.org/release/
a1eeff9a-1022-4e09-aaaf-fb27e7c454a7
155 December 2013

Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS) (2012, February): The Positions of the
Syrian Opposition. (Policy Analysis). URL: http://english.dohainstitute.org/release/
a26839b3-5f87-4757-8e5d-ce4576ebbd80
Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS) (2013, January): Deadly Neighbors:
Jdaidet al-Fadl: A Paradigm for Sectarian Genocide in the Damascus Region. (Case Analysis).
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Asseburg, Muriel; Wimmen, Heiko (2012, December): Civil War in Syria: External Actors and
Interests as Drivers of Conflict. (SWP Comments 2012/C 43). URL: http://www.swp-berlin.org/
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Baczko, Adam; Dorronsoro, Gilles; Quesnay, Arthur (2013, April): Building a Syrian State in a
Time of Civil War. (The Carnegie Papers, CP 175). URL: http://carnegieendowment.org/
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Badran, Tony (2013, June): Washington’s Syria Policy. Testimony presented before the House
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Barfi, Barak (2013, May): n.t. Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security
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Becker, Petra (2013): Syrian Muslim Brotherhood Still a Crucial Actor: Inclusivity the Order of
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Benotman, Noman and Naseraldin, Emad (2012, September): The Jihadist Network in the
Syrian Revolution: A Strategic Briefing. (Quilliam Concept Paper). URL: http://
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Berman, Asher (2012, October): Syrian Rebel Use of Social Media. (FPRI E-Notes, Middle East
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156 December 2013

Borghard, Erica D. (2013, August): Arms and Influence in Syria: The Pitfalls of Greater U.S.
Involvement. (CATO Institute Policy Analysis No. 734). URL: http://www.cato.org/
publications/policy-analysis/arms-influence-syria-pitfalls-greater-us-involvement
Briscoe, Ivan; Janssen, Floor; Smits, Rosan (2012, November): Stability and Economic Recovery
after Assad: Key Steps for Syria’s Post-Conflict Transition. (Clingendael Institute Report No. 2).
URL: http://www.clingendael.nl/publication/stability-and-economic-recovery-after-assad-key-
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Brookings Doha Center (BDC) (2013, June): The Challenge of Syrian Unity: Reassuring Local
Communities and Framing National Consensus. (Syria Workshop Series Paper). URL: http://
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Brown, Kevin (2013, May): The Syrian Crisis of 1957: A Lesson for the 21st Century. (CPD
Perspectives on Public Diplomacy, Paper 4, 2013). URL: http://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/
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Byman, Daniel L. et al. (2012, March): Saving Syria: Assessing Options for Regime Change.
(Saban Center Middle East Memo #21). URL: http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/
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Cardash, Sharon L.; Cilluffo, Frank J.; Marret, Jean-Luc (2013, August): Foreign Fighters in
Syria: Still Doing Battle, Still a Multidimensional Danger. (FRS note n°24/13). URL: http://
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Chatham House (2012, August): Syria: Prospects for Intervention. (Meeting Summary). URL:
http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/185299
Cobankiat, Randolph (2012, August-September): Addressing the Syrian Crisis Stalemate: How
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Committeri, Camilla (2012, October): When Domestic Factors Prevail Upon Foreign Ambitions:
Russia’s Strategic Game in Syria. (IAI Working Papers, 12 | 26). URL: http://www.iai.it/pdf/
DocIAI/iaiwp1226.pdf
Dalton, Melissa G. (2012, September): Asad Under Fire: Five Scenarios for the Future of Syria.
(CNAS Policy Brief). URL: http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/
CNAS_AsadUnderFire_Dalton.pdf
Djerejian, Edward P.; Bowen, Andrew (2013, March): Syria at the Crossroads: U.S. Policy and
Recommendations for the Way Forward. (James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy Paper).
URL: http://www.bakerinstitute.org/publications/BI-pub-SyriaReport-031813.pdf
Droz-Vincent, Philippe (2012, April): The “Dark Side” of the Syrian Transition and its
Potentially Dire Regional Consequences. (NOREF Policy Brief). URL: http://
www.peacebuilding.no/var/ezflow_site/storage/original/application/
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157 December 2013

Eeckelaert, Rouba Al-Fattal (2012, June): Electoral System in Future Syria. (SRCC Policy
Paper). URL: http://www.strescom.org/research/policy-papers/item/106-electoral-system-in-
future-syria.html
Engle, Eric (2012, July): Humanitarian Intervention and Syria: Russia, the United States, and
International Law. (Working Paper). URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?
abstract_id=2115191
Erkmen, Serhat (2012, August): Kurdish Movements in Syria. (ORSAM Report No. 127). URL:
http://www.orsam.org.tr/en/showReport.aspx?ID=1859
Fargues, Philippe; Fandrich, Christine (2012): The European Response to the Syrian Refugee
Crisis: What Next? (MPC Research Report 2012/14). URL: http://
www.migrationpolicycentre.eu/docs/MPC%202012%2014.pdf
Fontaine, Richard et al. (2013, August): The Way Forward in Syria. (CNAS Commentaries).
URL: http://mercury.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/169041/
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Friberg Lyme, Rune (2012): Sanctioning Assad’s Syria: Mapping the Economic, Socioeconomic
and Political Repercussions of the International Sanctions Imposed on Syria since March 2011.
(DIIS Report 2012:13). URL: http://subweb.diis.dk/sw124424.asp
Gambill, Gary C. (2013, August): Arms for Peace in Syria? (FPRI E-Notes). URL: http://
www.fpri.org/articles/2013/08/arms-peace-syria
Ghani, Ashraf; Lockhart, Clare (2013, July): Preparing for a Syrian Transition: Trust Funds:
Lessons from the Past, Thinking for the Future. (Legatum Institute / Institute for State
Effectiveness Memo). URL: http://www.li.com/publications/preparing-for-a-syrian-transition-
trust-funds-%28memo%29
Günay, Cengiz (2012, October): Interdependenzen: Wie die Dynamiken des Syrienkonfliktes den
Demokratisierungsprozess in der Türkei gefährden. (oiip Policy Paper 10/2012). URL: http://
www.oiip.ac.at/publikationen/policy-paper/publikationen-detail/article/93/interdependenzen-
wie-die-dynamiken-des-syrienkonfliktes-den-demokratisierungsprozess-in-der-tuerkei.html
Hammoud, Tariq (2013, February): Palestinian Refugees and the Syrian Revolution. (ACRPS
Research Paper). URL: http://english.dohainstitute.org/release/14e232ac-6d57-4de7-
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Hassan, Salah (2012, October): Palestinians in Syria and the Syrian Uprising. (ACRPS Case
Analysis). URL: http://english.dohainstitute.org/file/get/42bbd969-e593-45be-a4ff-
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Helfont, Tally (2011, November): Jordan’s Quandary over Syria. (FPRI E-Notes, Middle East
Media Monitor). URL: http://www.fpri.org/articles/2011/11/jordans-quandary-over-syria
158 December 2013

Heydemann, Steven (2013, May): Syria's Uprising: Sectarianism, Regionalisation, and State
Order in the Levant. (FRIDE Working Paper No. 119). URL: http://fride.org/publication/1127/
syria%27s-uprising:-sectarianism,-regionalisation,-and-state-order-in-the-levant
Human Rights Watch (2013, October): “You Can Still See their Blood”: Executions,
Indiscriminate Shootings, and Hostage Taking by Opposition Forces in Latakia Countryside.
(Report). URL: http://www.hrw.org/reports/2013/10/10/you-can-still-see-their-blood
IntelCenter (2013, February): Rebel Logo ID Guide for Syria. v1.0. (Analytical Report). URL:
http://www.intelcenter.com/reports/IntelCenter-SyrianRebel-LogoIDGuide-
v1-0-17Feb2013.pdf
Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) / Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC)

(2012, July): A Full-Scale Displacement and Humanitarian Crisis with no Solutions in Sight.
(Report). URL: http://www.internal-displacement.org/countries/syria
International Crisis Group (ICG) (2012, March): Now or Never: A Negotiated Transition for
Syria. (Middle East Briefing N°32). URL: http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-
north-africa/egypt-syria-lebanon/syria/B032-now-or-never-a-negotiated-transition-for-
syria.aspx
International Crisis Group (ICG) (2012, April): Syria’s Phase of Radicalisation. (Middle East
Briefing N°33). URL: http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/egypt-
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International Crisis Group (ICG) (2012, August): Syria’s Mutating Conflict. (Middle East
Report N°128). URL: http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/egypt-
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International Crisis Group (ICG) (2012, October): Tentative Jihad: Syria’s Fundamentalist
Opposition. (Middle East Report N°131). URL: http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-
east-north-africa/egypt-syria-lebanon/syria/131-tentative-jihad-syrias-fundamentalist-
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International Crisis Group (ICG) (2012, November): A Precarious Balancing Act: Lebanon and
the Syrian Conflict. (Middle East Report N°132). URL: http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/
middle-east-north-africa/egypt-syria-lebanon/lebanon/132-a-precarious-balancing-act-
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International Crisis Group (ICG) (2013, January): Syria’s Kurds: A Struggle within a Struggle.
(Middle East Report N°136). URL: http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-
africa/egypt-syria-lebanon/syria/136-syrias-kurds-a-struggle-within-a-struggle.aspx
International Crisis Group (ICG) (2013, April): Blurring the Borders: Syrian Spillover Risks for
Turkey. (Europe Report N°225). URL: http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/turkey-
cyprus/turkey/225-blurring-the-borders-syrian-spillover-risks-for-turkey.aspx
159 December 2013

International Crisis Group (ICG) (2013, May): Too Close for Comfort: Syrians in Lebanon.
(Middle East Report N°141). URL: http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-
africa/egypt-syria-lebanon/lebanon/141-too-close-for-comfort-syrians-in-lebanon.aspx
International Crisis Group (ICG) (2013, June): Syria’s Metastasising Conflicts. (Middle East
Report N°143). URL: http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/egypt-
syria-lebanon/syria/143-syrias-metastasising-conflicts.aspx
International Crisis Group (ICG) (2013, October): Anything but Politics: The State of Syria’s
Political Opposition. (Middle East Report N°146). URL: http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/
regions/middle-east-north-africa/egypt-syria-lebanon/syria/146-anything-but-politics-the-
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International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT)'s Jihadi Websites Monitoring Group

(2012, November): Evidence of the Influx into Syria of Foreign Jihadist Fighters. (JWMG
Insights). URL: http://www.ict.org.il/ResearchPublications/JihadiWebsitesMonitoring/
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International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT)'s Jihadi Websites Monitoring Group

(2013, July): An Analysis of Two Attacks by the Al-Nusra Front in Syria. (JWMG Insights).
URL: http://www.ict.org.il/ResearchPublications/JihadiWebsitesMonitoring/JWMGInsights/
tabid/320/Articlsid/1196/currentpage/1/Default.aspx
Iyengar, Radha; Fishman, Brian (2013, March): The Conflict in Syria: An Assessment of US
Strategic Interests. (NAF Policy Paper). URL: http://newamerica.net/publications/policy/
the_conflict_in_syria
Jones, Seth G. (2013, May): The Terrorist Threat from Syria. Testimony presented before the
House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence,
on May 22, 2013. (RAND Testimonies, CT-388). URL: http://www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/
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Joscelyn, Thomas (2013, May): n.t. Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security
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Joscelyn, Thomas (2013, September): n.t. Testimony presented before the House Committee
on Homeland Security, United States Congress, on September 10, 2013. URL: http://
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Kemp, Richard et al. (2012, July): A Collision Course for Intervention. (RUSI Syria Crisis
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160 December 2013

Khoury, Doreen (2013, February): Losing the Syrian Grassroots: Local Governance Structures
Urgently Need Support. (SWP Comments 2013/C 09). URL: http://www.swp-berlin.org/en/
publications/swp-comments-en/swp-aktuelle-details/article/
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Lang, Tobias; Günay, Cengiz (2011, November): Regionale Auswirkungen der Entwicklungen in
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Laub, Zachary; Masters, Jonathan (2013, September): Syria's Crisis and the Global Response.
(CFR Backgrounder). URL: http://www.cfr.org/syria/syrias-crisis-global-response/p28402
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Lund, Aron (2012, September): Syrian Jihadism. (UI Brief No. 13). URL: http://www.ui.se/upl/
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Lund, Aron (2013): Syria's Salafi Insurgents: The Rise of the Syrian Islamic Front. (UI
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Lund, Aron (2013, May): Struggling to Adapt: The Muslim Brotherhood in a New Syria. (The
Carnegie Papers, CP 181). URL: http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/05/07/struggling-to-
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Lynch, Marc (2012, February): Pressure not War: A Pragmatic and Principled Policy towards
Syria. (CNAS Policy Brief). URL: http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/
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MacDonald, Norine et al. (2012, December): Syria: A Way Forward. (ICOS Report). URL:
http://www.icosgroup.net/2012/report/syria-a-way-forward/
Mahfudh, Àqeel (2012, February): Syria and Turkey: A Turning Point or a Historical Bet?
(ACRPS Research Papers). URL: http://english.dohainstitute.org/release/76083ffb-37aa-4145-
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Malmvig, Helle (2013, August): Ambiguous Endings: Middle East Regional Security in the Wake
of the Arab Uprisings and the Syrian Civil War. (DIIS Report 2013:23). URL: http://en.diis.dk/
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Martini, Jeffrey; York, Erin; Young, William (2013): Syria as an Arena of Strategic Competition.
(RAND Research Reports, RR-213). URL: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/
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161 December 2013

Masters, Jonathan; Laub, Zachary (2013, October): Al-Qaeda in Iraq (a.k.a. Islamic State in
Iraq and Greater Syria). (CFR Backgrounder). URL: http://www.cfr.org/iraq/al-qaeda-iraq-k-
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McCants, William et al. (2013, September): Aiding Civilians in a Sectarian Conflict: Can
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Meier, Oliver (2013, June): Chemiewaffen in Syrien: Wie sich die Bedrohung verringern lässt.
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Mohamed, Saira (2012, March): The U.N. Security Council and the Crisis in Syria. (ASIL
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Naftalin, Mark; Harpviken, Kristian Berg (2012, September): Rebels and Refugees: Syrians in
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Nahar, Hazem (2012, January): The Discourse and Performance of the Syrian Opposition: Since
the Beginning of the Revolution. (Heinrich Böll Stiftung Middle East Office Study). URL: http://
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Naufal, Hala (2012): Syrian Refugees in Lebanon: The Humanitarian Approach under Political
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Nerguizian, Aram (2011, December): Assessing the Risks of Military Intervention. (CSIS
Working Draft). URL: http://csis.org/publication/instability-syria
Nikitin, Mary Beth D.; Kerr, Paul K.; Feickert, Andrew (2013, September): Syria’s Chemical
Weapons: Issues for Congress. (CRS Report for Congress R42848). URL: http://www.fas.org/
sgp/crs/nuke/R42848.pdf
Orhan, Oytun (2012, August): Syrian Christians in the Dilemma of Chaos and
Authoritarianism. (Orsam Foreign Policy Analysis). URL: http://www.orsam.org.tr/en/
showArticle.aspx?ID=1858
O’Sullivan, Niamh Maria (2012, August): The Moral Enigma of an Intervention in Syria: A Just
War Analysis. (IAI Working Papers, 12 | 22). URL: http://www.iai.it/pdf/DocIAI/
iaiwp1222.pdf
Popp, Roland (2012, November): The Syrian Civil War: Between Escalation and Intervention.
[Translated by Christopher Findlay]. (CSS Analysis in Security Policy No. 124). URL: http://
www.css.ethz.ch/publications/pdfs/CSS-Analysis-124-EN.pdf
162 December 2013

Portela, Clara (2012, September): The EU’s Sanctions against Syria: Conflict Management by
Other Means. (Egmont Security Policy Brief No. 38). URL: http://www.egmontinstitute.be/
papers/12/sec-gov/SPB38.pdf
Prucha, Nico; and Ali Fisher (2013, April 27): Jihadi Twitter Activism: Introduction. Jihadica.
URL: http://www.jihadica.com/jihadi-twitter-activism-introduction/
Prucha, Nico and Ali Fisher (2013, May 13): Jihadi Twitter Activism Part 2: Jabhat al-Nusra on
the Twittersphere. Jihadica. URL: http://www.jihadica.com/jihadi-twitter-activism-part-2-
jabhat-al-nusra-on-the-twittersphere/#more-1746
Prucha, Nico and Ali Fisher (2013, August 20): The “Who’s Who” of the Most Important Jihadi
Accounts on Twitter? Jihadica. URL: http://www.jihadica.com/the-%E2%80%98who
%E2%80%99s-who%E2%80%99-of-the-most-important-jihadi-accounts-on-twitter/
Prucha, Nico and Ali Fisher (2013, September 4): 66 Important Jihadist Twitter Accounts (Part
2). Jihadica. URL: http://www.jihadica.com/66-important-jihadist-twitter-accounts-part-2/
Public International Law & Policy Group (PILPG) (2012, March): Planning for Syria’s “Day
After”: Security, Rule of Law & Democracy. (Policy Planning Paper). URL: http://
publicinternationallawandpolicygroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/PILPG-Report-
Planning-for-Syrias-Day-After.pdf
Qabalan, Marwan (2013, August): The Armed Syrian Opposition: Common Aim but no Vision.
(ACRPS Research Paper). URL: http://english.dohainstitute.org/release/
4bd15c98-978f-427c-9856-3cb727a56f5b
Rabinovich, Itamar (2012, November): Israel’s View of the Syrian Crisis. (Saban Center
Analysis Paper Series, No. 28). URL: http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2012/11/
israel-syria-rabinovich
Saleh, Layla (2013, May): Syrian Perceptions of U.S. Intervention in Syria. (FPRI E-Notes,
Middle East Media Monitor). URL: http://www.fpri.org/docs/MEMM_2013_05_Saleh_-
_Syria.pdf
Salem, Paul (2012, December): Can Lebanon Survive the Syrian Crisis? (The Carnegie Papers,
CMEC 35). URL: http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/12/11/can-lebanon-survive-syrian-
crisis/escs
Sayigh, Yezid (2013, April): The Syrian Opposition’s Leadership Problem. (The Carnegie Papers,
CMEC 39). URL: http://carnegie-mec.org/2013/04/03/syrian-opposition-s-leadership-
problem/fx6u
Schaller, Christian (2013, September): Der Bürgerkrieg in Syrien, der Giftgas-Einsatz und das
Völkerrecht. (SWP-Aktuell 2013/A 54). URL: http://www.swp-berlin.org/de/publikationen/
swp-aktuell-de/swp-aktuell-detail/article/
syrien_buergerkrieg_giftgas_einsatz_voelkerrecht.html
163 December 2013

Shaikh, Salman (2012, October): Losing Syria (and how to Avoid it). (BDC Publications, No.
17). URL: http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2012/10/18-losing-syria-shaikh
Sharp, Jeremy M.; Blanchard, Christopher M. (2013, September): Armed Conflict in Syria:
Background and U.S. Response. (CRS Report RL33487). URL: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/
mideast/RL33487.pdf
Simcox, Robin (2013, May): n.t. Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security
SimcoxR-20130522.pdf
Spath, Andrew (2012, January): Opposition Groups in Syria: Myths and Realities. (FPRI E-
Notes, Middle East Media Monitor). URL: http://www.fpri.org/articles/2012/01/opposition-
groups-syria-myths-and-realities
Stansfield, Gareth (2013, July): The Remaking of Syria, Iraq and the Wider Middle East: The End
of the Sykes-Picot State System? (RUSI Briefing Paper). URL: http://www.rusi.org/publications/
other/ref:O51E67CF061C2A/
Steinberg, Guido (2012, February): Katar und der Arabische Frühling: Unterstützung für
Islamisten und anti-syrische Neuausrichtung. (SWP-Aktuell 2012/A 07). URL: http://www.swp-
berlin.org/de/publikationen/swp-aktuell-de/swp-aktuell-detail/article/
katar_und_der_arabische_fruehling.html
Steinberg, Guido (2013, August): Der Irak und der syrische Bürgerkrieg: Syrien ist Anlass für die
Gewalteskalation im Irak, Ursache ist aber Malikis Autoritarismus. (SWP-Aktuell 2013/A 46).
URL: http://www.swp-berlin.org/de/publikationen/swp-aktuell-de/swp-aktuell-detail/article/
irak_und_der_syrische_buergerkrieg.html
The Day After Association (TDA): The Day After Project: Supporting a Democratic Transition
in Syria. URL: http://www.tda-sy.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/The-Day-After_EN.pdf
Trenin, Dmitri (2013, February): The Mythical Alliance: Russia’s Syria Policy. (The Carnegie
Papers, CP 173). URL: http://carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=50909
Ulph, Stephen (2006): Jihadi After Action Report: Syria. (CTC Report). URL: http://
www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA458486
Varghese, Anand (2013, June): Social Media Reporting and the Syrian Civil War. (USIP Peace
Brief 151). URL: http://www.usip.org/publications/social-media-reporting-and-the-syrian-
civil-war
White, Jeffrey; Tabler, Andrew J.; Zelin, Aaron Y. (2013, September): Syria’s Military
Opposition: How Effective, United, or Extremist? (The Washington Institute Policy Focus 128).
URL: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/pubs/
PolicyFocus128WhiteTablerZelin.pdf
164 December 2013

Wikistrat (2012, September): Syria’s Turmoil Explored: A Wikistrat Crowd-Sourced Simulation.

URL: http://wikistrat.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Syrias-
Turmoil-Explored-Executive-Summary.pdf
Zelin, Aaron Y. (2013, April): European Foreign Fighters in Syria. (ICSR Insights). URL: http://
icsr.info/2013/04/icsr-insight-european-foreign-fighters-in-syria-2/
Zelin, Aaron Y. (2013, September): Al-Qaeda in Syria: A Closer Look at ISIS (Part I). (The
Washington Institute Policywatch 2137). URL: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-
analysis/view/al-qaeda-in-syria-a-closer-look-at-isis-part-i
Zelin, Aaron Y. (2013, September): Al-Qaeda in Syria: A Closer Look at ISIS (Part II). (The
Washington Institute Policywatch 2138). URL: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-
analysis/view/al-qaeda-in-syria-a-closer-look-at-isis-part-ii
Zelin, Aaron Y.; Kohlmann, Evan F.; al-Khouri, Laith (2013, June): Convoy of Martyrs in the
Levant: A Joint Study Charting the Evolving Role of Sunni Foreign Fighters in the Armed
Uprising against the Assad Regime in Syria. (Flashpoint Partners Joint Study). URL: https://
flashpoint-intel.com/upload/syria_martyrs/2013-06-02_Convoy_of_Martyrs_Report.pdf
Note for the Reader:

Whenever retrievable, URLs for freely available versions of subscription-based publications
have been provided. Thanks to the Open Access movement, self-archiving of publications in
institutional repositories or on author homepages for free public use (so-called Green Open
Access) has become more common. Please note, that the content of Green Open Access
documents is not necessarily identical to the officially published versions (e.g., in case of pre-
prints). Such texts might not (yet) have passed through all editorial stages publishers employ
to ensure quality control (peer review, copy and layout editing etc.). In some cases, articles
may only be cited after getting consent by the author(s).
About the Compiler: Judith Tinnes, Ph.D., studied Information Science and New German
Literature and Linguistics at the Saarland University (Germany). Her doctoral thesis dealt with
Internet usage of Islamist terrorists and insurgents. Currently she works in the research &
development department of the Leibniz Institute for Psychology Information (ZPID) (http://
www.zpid.de). She also serves as Editorial Assistant for ‘Perspectives on Terrorism’.
165 December 2013

Selected Dissertations and Theses on Terrorism, Counterterrorism

and Political Violence, 1980 – 2013 (available in full-text)
Selected by Eric Price
NB: some of the items listed below may have access requirements; please see your librarian.
Ahmed, Shamila Kouser (2012) The impact of the 'war on terror' on Birmingham's Pakistani/
Kashmiri Muslims' perceptions of the state, the police and Islamic identities. University of
Birmingham, U.K.
[http://etheses.bham.ac.uk/3635/]
Ahrnens, Anette (2007) A Quest for legitimacy: Debating UN Security Council rules on
terrorism and non-proliferation. Lund University, Sweden.
[http://www.lunduniversity.lu.se/o.o.i.s?id=12683&postid=26860]
Al-Ajmi, Thaqal Saad (2003) Legal responses to terrorism with special reference to the position of
Kuwait. Aberystwyth University, U.K.
[http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.411353]
Albuquerque, Nazare Alves de (1993) The contemporary European response to political crime: a
study of the European Community, France and the United Kingdom. University of Reading, U.K.
Alexander, Deanna Wimmer (2001) How could this happen? A constructivist analysis of
reactive state terrorism at Ruby Ridge. Virginia Tech University, U.S.A.
[http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-04202001-163258/]
Al-Harbi, Adnam Noori (2005) A comparative study of Western and Middle Eastern newspaper
responses to 9/11 and the 'War on terror'. University of Ulster, U.K.
Ali, Murad (2012) The politics of development aid: the allocation and delivery of aid from the
United States of America to Pakistan. Massey University, New Zealand.
[http://hdl.handle.net/10179/3418]
Allan, Matthew W. (2010) The legal-military dilemma in the response to international terrorism.
Texas A&M University, U.S.A.
[http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/ETD-TAMU-2009-12-7331]
Alon, Hanan (1980) Countering Palestinian terrorism in Israel: Toward a policy analysis of
countermeasures. The RAND Graduate School, U.S.A.
166 December 2013

[http://www.rand.org/pubs/notes/N1567.html]
Alrahoomi, Juma (2011) The policing of money laundering: The role of the Dubai police.
Northumbria University, U.K.
[http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/4455/]
Altenbern, Mikaila Ellis Fethke (2013) Prospects for resolving conflicts involving religious
terrorists: Afghanistan, the Taliban, and strategic jihad. George Mason University, U.S.A.
Althnayan, Abdulrahman (2012) Tourism and terrorism: A crisis management perspective: an

investigation of stakeholders' engagement in the context of Egyptian holiday destinations
University of Hull, U.K.
[https://hydra.hull.ac.uk/resources/hull:6064]
Alzubairi, Fatemah (2011) Kuwait and Bahrain’s anti-terrorism laws in comparative and
international perspective. University of Toronto, Canada.
Anstee, Jodie (2008) Constructivism, contestation and the international detention regime.
University of Exeter, U.K.
[https://ore.exeter.ac.uk/repository/handle/10036/70953]
Asthappan, Jibey (2009) Stealing their thunder: The effectiveness of military force in deterring
terrorism. The American University, U.S.A.
[http://udini.proquest.com/view/stealing-their-thunder-the-pqid:1907691871/]
Avihai, Hillel (2006) Evolution and escalation of aviation terrorism: From bargaining chip
fashion to total destruction orientation. Anglia Ruskin University, U.K.
Ayer, Jennifer (2008) Global terrorism: What countries suffer most? Georgetown University,
U.S.A.
Ayoughi, Sarah (2013) Mental health consequences of war, internal conflict and disrupting living
conditions: The case of Afghanistan. Universität Konstanz, Germany.
[http://kops.ub.uni-konstanz.de/bitstream/handle/urn:nbn:de:bsz:352-243990/
Dissertation_S.Ayoughi.pdf?sequence=3]
Bærentzen, Marc (2012) The dilution of terrorism: Internship report at the International Center
for Terrorism Studies. Roskilde University, Denmark.
167 December 2013

[http://rudar.ruc.dk/handle/1800/8627]
Bærentzen, Marc (2013) Rethinking terrorism: An analysis of terrorism's influence on society

after 9/11. Roskilde University, Denmark.
Bagans, Laura (2011) Crises in the tourism industry and their effects on young travelers.
HAAGA-HELIA Ammattikorkeakoulu, Finland.
[http://publications.theseus.fi/handle/10024/32631]
Bakar, Ayhan (2011) Justice and home affairs: impact of the European Union on the internal
security of Turkey. University of Nottingham, U.K.
[http://etheses.nottingham.ac.uk/3103/]
Baker, Anthony (2009) Countering terrorism in the UK: A convert community perspective.
University of Exeter, U.K.
Barnidge, Robert Perry (2008) Non-state actors and terrorism: applying the Law of State
Responsibility and the due diligence principle. Queen's University Belfast, U.K.
Barley, Ruth (2013) An anthropological exploration of identity and social interaction in a multi-
ethnic classroom. Sheffield Hallam University, U.K.
[http://shura.shu.ac.uk/7040/]
Bartlett, Brian Christopher (2010) Do less-free countries produce more terrorism? Georgetown
University U.S.A.
Battaglia, Adria (2011) The rhetoric of ‘free speech’ regulating dissent since 9/11. University of
Texas - Austin, U.S.A.
[http://hdl.handle.net/2152/ETD-UT-2010-05-877]
Bauhn, Per (1989) Ethical aspects of political terrorism: the sacrificing of the innocent. Lunds
Universitet, Sweden.
[http://catalog.crl.edu/record=b1849561~S1]
Beales, Richard (2004) An ontology-based platform to support organisational innovation

networks. University of Southampton, U.K.
[http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/266401/]
168 December 2013

Beitia, Maia (2013) Is Rancière anarchist? University of Helsinki, Finland.
Berger, Michael Andrew (2010) How resisting democracies can defeat substate terrorism:
Formulating a theoretical framework for strategic coercion against nationalistic substate terrorist
organizations. St Andrews University, U.K.
[http://research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk/handle/10023/889]
Berkebile, Richard E. (2012) Causes of domestic terrorism: 1970-2010. University of Missouri,

U.S.A.[http://hdl.hande.net/10355/16521]
Berrebi, Claude (2004) The causes and consequences of terrorism. Princeton University, U.S.A.
[http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/546799698.pdf]
Beyer, Anna Cornelia (2009) Counter-terrorism and international power relations: the EU,
ASEAN and hegemonic global governance. University of Hull, U.K.
Biggio, Nancy Connors (2002) The rationality of the use of terrorism by secular and religious
groups. University of Alabama, U.S.A.
[http://classify.oclc.org/classify2/ClassifyDemo?swid=52615487]
Binodah, Abdullah M. (2006) U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East and the Bush War on
Terror: Elite opinion and the failure of U.S. strategy. University of Sheffield, U.K.
Blanc, J.H.C. le (2012) Political violence in Latin America. A cross-case comparison of the urban
insurgency campaigns of Montoneros, M-19, and FSLN in a historical perspective. Universiteit
Utrecht, the Netherlands.
[http://igitur-archive.library.uu.nl/dissertations/2012-0614-200540/UUindex.html]
Boukalas, Christos (2007) Empire and Reich: War on terrorism and the political metalaxis of the
U.S. Lancaster University, U.K.
[http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?did=1&uin=uk.bl.ethos.507088]
Bradshaw, Renee (2008) The public's view of terrorism in their communities as related to media-
viewing habit. University of Texas - Arlington, U.S.A.
Brannan, David (2007) Violence, terrorism and the role of theology: Repentant and rebellious
Christian identity. St. Andrews University, U.K.
169 December 2013

Brown, David (2001) Aspects of the area of freedom, security and justice: Assessing the progress
made, commitment expressed and legitimacy of the implementation processes of European police
cooperation and counter terrorism. University of Aberdeen, U.K.
Buckle, Christopher (2011) The 'War on Terror' metaframe in film and television. University of
Glasgow, U.K.
[http://theses.gla.ac.uk/3014/]
Buis, Claire-Lise (2008) Démocratie(s) à l'épreuve; Discours sur l'ennemi intérieur et identité
démocratique dans les débats parlementaires français et allemands depuis la fin des années
soixante [in French and in German] Freie Universität Berlin, Germany.
[http://www.diss.fu-berlin.de/diss/receive/FUDISS_thesis_000000034796]
Bunn, Matthew (2007) Guardians at the Gates of Hell: Estimating the risk of nuclear theft and
terrorism, and identifying the highest-priority risks of nuclear theft. Massachusetts Institute of
Technology (MIT), U.S.A.
[http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/39006]
Butram, Matthew (2008) The effect of increased customs scrutiny on legal entrance into the
United States. Georgetown University, U.S.A.
Bzostek, Rachel Tamara (2005) Why not preempt? An analysis of the impact of legal and
normative constraints on the use of anticipatory military activities. Louisiana State University,
U.S.A.
[http://etd.lsu.edu/docs/available/etd-06302005-104805/]
Cale, Jesse L. (2004) Issue terrorism: An analysis of trends in North America. Simon Fraser
University, Canada.
[http://summit.sfu.ca/item/7053]
Capper, David (2003) The effects of terrorism on the decision-making process of tourists.
University of Surrey, U.K.
Carley, Stephen (2007) Testing the President's hypothesis: Are terrorist attacks the result of
freedom in the world? Georgetown University, U.S.A.
170 December 2013

Carlsson, Eric (2009) Medierad övervakning: En studie av övervakningens betydelser i svensk

dagspress. [in Swedish] Umeå University, Sweden.
[http://umu.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2:217436]
Case, Erik S. (2009) State level causes of terrorism: Limits on political expression. University of
North Texas, U.S.A.
[http://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc12092/]
Ceccarelli, Marco (2009) Revolutionary self-fulfilment? Individual radicalisation and terrorism

in Fyodor Dostoyevsky's Notes from Underground, Crime and Punishment and The Devils.
University of Western Australia, Australia.
[http://repository.uwa.edu.au:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-
full&object_id=12657&local_base=GEN01-INS01]
Celton, Julie (2007) Security over privacy: Who is to blame? Looking beyond U.S. influence for
the real drivers of European policy change. Georgetown University, U.S.A.
Cetin, Hakan (2010) The effectiveness of the witness security program in the fight against
organized crime and terrorism a case study of the United States and Turkey. Rutgers University,
U.S.A.
[http://hdl.rutgers.edu/1782.2/rucore10002600001.ETD.000052832]
Chadwick, Elizabeth (1994) The utilization of international humanitarian law and, in

particular, the Geneva Convention Treaty Régime, to deter acts of international terrorism, with
special reference to armed struggles by "Peoples" for their right to self-determination. University
of Nottingham, U.K.
Chang, Chieh (2009) Global trade, 9/11 attacks, and customs organizations in comparative
perspectives. Rutgers University, U.S.A.
Chang, Yih (2011) Comprehensive security and cooperative security in Southeast Asia: ASEAN's
and the ARF's responses to non-traditional security issues in the post-Cold War era. University
of New South Wales, Australia.
[http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/51770]
Chavez-Segura, Alejandro (2011) A theology of international relations: A Buddhist approach to

religion and politics in an interdependent world. University of St Andrews, U.K.
171 December 2013

Cheema, Shahbaz Ahmad (2011) Problematizing "authenticity": A critical appraisal of the

Jamaat-i-Islami gender discourse. University of Warwick, U.K.
[http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/51358/]
Chehade, Ghada (2013) Anti-terrorism discourse and the war on dissent: A critical analysis.
McGill University, Canada.
[http://digitool.library.mcgill.ca/thesisfile117017.pdf]
Cheong, Marc (2013) Inferring social behavior and interaction on twitter by combining
metadata about users & messages. Monash University, Australia.
[http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/892714]
Cho, Harry Yeon (2010) Human rights and the war against international terrorism: A war
without rights? University of Toronto, Canada.
Clapton, William (2010) Risk and hierarchy within international society: Liberal
interventionism in the post-Cold War era. Murdoch University, Australia.
[http://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/1694/]
Clarke, Colleen Margaret (2006) Police response to anti-terrorism policy. University of Toronto,
Canada.
[http://sbs.mnsu.edu/government/faculty/clarkevitae.doc]
Clutterbuck, Lindsay (2002) An accident of history? The evolution of counter terrorism

methodology in the Metropolitan Police from 1829 to 1901, with particular reference to the
influence of extreme Irish Nationalist activity. University of Portsmouth, U.K.
Coaffee, Jon (2000) Risk, insurance and the making of the contemporary urban landscape, with
specific reference to the threat of terrorism in the City of London 1992-1997. Oxford Brookes
University, U.K.
Cockley, David (2009) The media spectacle of terrorism and response-able literature. Texas
A&M University, U.S.A.
[http://udini.proquest.com/view/the-media-spectacle-of-terrorism-pqid:1857351741/]
Cooper, Robyn (2011) Assessing the social contract equilibrium in a Post 9/11 world: An
Australian perspective. Murdoch University, Australia.
172 December 2013

Cottle, Stephen J. (2013) The impact of U.S. foreign aid on international terrorism. Georgetown
University, U.S.A.
Cox, Amy S. (2010) Self-fulfilling prophecies: The government's role in generating support for
ethnic terrorists. McGill University, Canada.
Cozine, Keith (2010) Transgovernmental networks as a tool to combat terrorism: How ICE
attachés operate overseas to combat terrorist travel. Rutgers University, U.S.A.
Cunningham, William G. (2006) Terrorism and conflict resolution: Theory and practice George
Mason University, U.S.A.
[http://udini.proquest.com/view/terrorism-and-conflict-resolution-goid:304735438/]
Cuong, Pham Cao (2009) US security engagement with Southeast Asia during the Clinton and
Bush administrations. University of New South Wales, Australia.
Dahlin, Maria. Umeå (2008) Tal om terror: Säkerhetspolitisk retorik i Sverige och Ryssland
hösten [in Swedish] University, Sweden.
Dalby, Andrew Keith (2004) European integrationist influences on member states' counter-
terrorist co-operation and co-ordination. St Andrews University, U.K.
[http://library.st-andrews.ac.uk/record=b1446282~S5]
Dalla-Pozza, Dominique Catherine (2010) The Australian approach to enacting counter-

terrorism laws. University of New South Wales, Australia
Davis, Danny Wayne (2004) Al-Qaeda and the Phinehas Priesthood: Terrorist groups with a
common enemy and similar justifications for terrorist tactics. Texas A&M University, U.S.A.
DeFoster, Ruth Maku (2010) Domestic terrorism on the Nightly News. University of Minnesota,
U.S.A.
[http://purl.umn.edu/93028]
173 December 2013

Del Gaudio, Andrew (2012) Operational art and the Narva Front 1944, Sinimäed and campaign
planning. University of Liverpool, U.K.
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[https://etd.ohiolink.edu/ap:10:0::NO:10:P10_ETD_SUBID:46960]
Mesadieu, Jeff (2013) Is terrorism inevitable? The immortality of terrorism. Georgetown

University, U.S.A.
[http://udini.proquest.com/preview/is-terrorism-inevitable-the-goid:1355113820/http://
m.repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/558372]
Mickler, David (2009) Protecting civilians or preserving interests? Explaining the UN security
council's non-intervention in Darfur, Sudan, 2003-06. Murdoch University, Australia
[http://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/1301]
Milinski, Martin (2006) Iran-Libya: A comparison of two state sponsors of terrorism.

Universiteit Utrecht, the Netherlands
188 December 2013

Millan Valencia, Daniel (2012) The status of Latin America in US foreign policy, 1946-2008: An
empirical analysis. University of Essex, U.K.
Mirza, Muhammad Nadeem (2013) Determinants of American foreign policy towards Pakistan.
Université Toulouse, France.
[http://publications.univ-tlse1.fr/13912/]
Moeckli, Daniel (2006) Whose liberty? The 'War on Terrorism', human rights and non-
discrimination. University of Nottingham, U.K.
Moore, Matthew Michael (2011) Sparks on kindling: Terrorism's role in civil war onset,
recurrence, and escalation. University of Missouri, U.S.A.
Morakabati, Y. (2007) Tourism, travel risk and travel risk perceptions: A study of travel risk
perceptions and the effects of incidents on tourism. Bournemouth University, U.K.
Morrow, Genevieve (2012) What was the nature of the security threat that WikiLeaks presented
to the United States in 2010? Murdoch University, Australia.
Mosher, Katrina N. (2009) The metrics of death: Emotions and the effects of casualties on public
opinion in militarized disputes and terrorism. Texas A&M University, U.S.A.
[http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/ETD-TAMU-3232]
Muir, Angus (2001) Destruction and redemption: The conduct of revealed religious violence in
the contemporary era. University of St Andrews, U.K.
Mullin-Jackson, Angela (2009) Racial and cultural otherness: The lived experience of Americans
of Korean descent. Middle Tennessee State University, Murfreesboro, Tennessee, U.S.A.
[http://www.bookpump.com/dps/pdf-b/942343Xb.pdf]
Murphy, Martin N. (2007) Small boats, weak states and dirty money: Contemporary piracy and
maritime terrorism's threat to international security. University of Reading, U.K.
189 December 2013

Murphy, Patrick (2012) Securing the everyday city: The emerging geographies of counter-
terrorism. Durham University, U.K.
[http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/3506/]
Muro Ruiz, Diego (2004) Ethnicity and violence: The case of radical Basque nationalism.
University of London, U.K.
Mylonaki, Emmanouela-Anastasia (2007) The contemporary counter-terrorism model of inter-

state cooperation. University of Bristol, U.K.
Naseem, Azra (2012) On evildoers: A Foucaultian analysis of the discursive structuring of

contemporary terrorism. Dublin City University, Ireland.
[http://doras.dcu.ie/16812/]
Nicholson, Megan (2011) More than just terrorists? Constructions of Canadian Muslim
identities in the Canadian daily press. University of Guelph, Canada.
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Nishikawa, Akiko (2006) Issues and political preference: Presidential election 2004. Georgetown
University, U.S.A.
Noble, Mark (2010) Testing the blowback thesis: American military presence and terrorism
against Americans. University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill, U.S.A.
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Noorloos, L.A. van (2011) Hate speech revisited: A comparative and historical perspective on
hate speech law in the Netherlands and England & Wales. Universiteit Utrecht, the Netherlands.
Oehmichen, Anna (2009) Terrorism and anti-terror legislation - the terrorised legislator? A
comparison of counter-terrorism legislation and its implications on human rights in the legal
systems of the United Kingdom, Spain, Germany, and France. Leiden University, The
Netherlands.
Olafsdottir, Sigrun (2007) The torture debate. University of Helsinki, Finland.
190 December 2013

O'Regan, Mary (2006) Framing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: A case-study analysis of the Irish
national 'opinion leader' press - July 2000 to July 2004. University of Stirling, U.K.
Ors, Huseyin (2011) What are the lessons that can be learned from Turkey's transnational
operational police cooperation experiences? Rutgers University, U.S.A.
Othman, Abdullah (2013) Exploring the business benefits of regulatory compliance: The case of
AML/CFT systems for banking institutions in Malaysia. Loughborough University, U.K.
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Ozguler, Mustafa (2008) Comparing and assessing the preparedness of police organizations in
counter-terrorism (Netherlands and United Kingdom). Kent State University, U.S.A.
[http://alldissertations.com/full.php?id=3755]
Pahlavi, Pierre Cyril Cyrus Teymour (2004) Mass diplomacy: Foreign policy in the global
information age. McGill University, Canada
Patenaude, Marc A. (2011) Providing for the common defense: Internal security and the Cold
War, 1945-1975. Louisiana State University, U.S.A.
Payne, John David (2011) Fighting for control: State-sponsored terrorism as foreign policy in
Cuba and Libya, 1959-2010. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), U.S.A.
Payne, Matthew Thomas (2013) Interactive pleasures of post-9/11 military video games.
University of Texas – Austin, U.S.A.
Peddicord, Michael (2010) The effects of structural policies on terrorist incidents in democracies,
1975 to 1995. Georgetown University, U.S.A.
Perezalonso, Andrés (2010) Truth matters: An assessment of Foucauldian discourse analysis

through the case study of the George W. Bush's administration's war on terrorism. Newcastle
University, U.K.
[https://theses.ncl.ac.uk/dspace/handle/10443/1029]
191 December 2013

Peter, Cyril Ravindran (2012) Implications and impacts of terrorism on sporting events: Is the
hospitality industry prepared and equipped to host mega events? AUT University, New Zealand.
Pienaar, Lyle Eugene (2007) International terrorism in Africa 1990-2004: Extent and counter-
measures. University of Pretoria, South Africa.
[http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-11192008-61454/unrestricted/dissertation.pdf]
Pineu, Daniel Filipe Dos Ramos (2009) The pedagogy of security: Police assistance and liberal
governmentality. The University of Wales, Aberystwyth, U.K.
Pisapia, Giovanni(2008) The development of a terrorism risk management framework (TRMF)

for the protection of critical infrastructure facilities from terrorist physical attacks. Università
Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Italy.
Pitcher, Ben (2007) Multicultural Nationalism, New Labour and the Politics of Race and State
University of East London, U.K.
Plionis, Alexander Asterios (2008) Automated multi-radionuclide separation and analysis with
combined detection capability. University of Texas – Austin, U.S.A.
Policante, Amedeo (2012) Hostis Humani Generis: Pirates and empires from antiquity until
today. Goldsmiths College (University of London) U.K.
Potgieter, N. A. (2008) Terrorism as a threat to national security in South Africa since 1994.
University of Pretoria, South Africa
[http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-11192008-161454/]
Prince, Troy Jason (2009) An assessment of the 2002 National Security Strategy of the United
States: Continuity and change. University of Bradford, U.K.
Rae, Norman G. D.(2007) Reinventing geopolitical codes in the post-Cold War world with special
reference to international terrorism. University of Glasgow, U.K.
192 December 2013

Rahman, Aspalella A. (2008) An analysis of the Malaysian anti-money laundering laws and
their impact on banking institutions. University of Western Australia, Australia
Reilly, Paul (2008) Framing online communications of civil and uncivil groups in post-conflict
Northern Ireland. University of Glasgow, U.K.
Rejali, Darius M. (1987) Discipline and torture, or how Iranians became moderns. McGill
University, Canada.
Rejman, Karl (2003) What puts the 'terror' in terrorism. University of Lethbridge, Canada
Renaud, Sean (2010) A view from Chechnya: An assessment of Russian counterinsurgency

during the two Chechen wars and future implications. Massey University, New Zealand
Repo, Jemima Isabel (2006) Gendering the War on Terrorism: Discourses and representations of
masculinities and femininities. University of Helsinki, Finland
Reshetar, Ganna (2008) Assessing and managing operational risk with a special emphasis on
terrorism risk. University of Zurich, Switzerland
[http://dx.doi.org/10.5167/uzh-11587]
Richardson, Alexia (2008) Traces of terror: Photography and memory of political violence in
Argentina and Peru. University of Durham, U.K.
Robison, Kristopher K. (2007) The challenges of political terrorism: A cross-national analysis of

the downward spiral of terrorist violence and socio-political crisis. Ohio State University, U.S.A.
[https://etd.ohiolink.edu/ap:10:0::NO:10:P10_ACCESSION_NUM:osu1186675931]
Ronnen, Edite (2011) Mediation in a conflict society: An ethnographic view on mediation

processes in Israel. London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), U.K.
193 December 2013

Rubin, Gabriel (2008) Freedom and order: How democratic governments abridge civil liberties
after terrorist attacks - and why sometimes they don't. Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
U.S.A.
Ruff, Adam Michael (2012) Countering money laundering and terrorism financing: Can the
resultant intrusion into the right of privacy by the law be justified? Monash University, Australia
Ryckman, Michael (2011) Civil war, terrorism, and the substitutability of violence. University of
Arizona, U.S.A.
Ryder, Frances I. (2009) The relations of terror and immigration: Preventive solutions.
University of Kansas, U.S.A.
Saksena, Ritu (2006) Mapping terrorism: Amorphous nations, transient loyalties. University of
Maryland, U.S.A.
Sample, Michelle S. (2008) Canada's Anti-Terrorism Act: Creating a paradigm of insecurity?

Simon Fraser University, Canada.
Sands, Allison (2007) Terrorism in the 21st century: The relationship between terrorism and
globalization. Georgetown University, U.S.A.
Sarafis, Evangelia (2006) Occupation, resistance and White Terror in two Greek villages: The
local origins of civil war. University of Sussex, U.K.
Saul, Ben (2005) Defining 'terrorism' in international law. Oxford University, U.K.
Saunders, Lucy (2010) Limiting democracy for the sake of itself: Fighting extremism with
extreme measures. University of Toronto, Canada.
194 December 2013

Schachter, Jonathan (2002) The eye of the believer: Psychological influences on counter-terrorism
policy-making. Pardee RAND Graduate School, U.S.A.
[http://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD166.html]
Schlagheck, Heidi Michelle (2007) The importance of international law in counter-terrorism:

The need for new guidelines in international law to assist states responding to terrorist attacks.
Virginia Tech University, U.S.A.
[http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-12212006-142205/]
Schulz, Jan-Hendrik (2010) Der Aufbau einer "Antiimperialistischen Front" gegen NATO und
Staat: Zum Entwicklungsprozess einer terroristischen Kommunikationsstrategie in der Roten
Armee Fraktion (RAF) und der Action Directe (AD), 1984–1987 [in German]. Universität
Bielefeld, Germany.
[http://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/publication/2305069]
Shah, Mohamed Shah bin Hussin (2006) Terrorism in Malaysia: An investigation into Jemaah
Islamiah. University of Exeter, U.K.
Singh, Ajaindra (2008) An exploration of perceived effectiveness of the National Terrorism

Insurance Scheme in the post-9/11 environment: The case of the UK Pool Reinsurance Company:
Volume 1. Glasgow Caledonian University, U.K.
Sinkkonen, Teemu (2009) Political responses to terrorism: Case study on the Madrid terrorist
attack on March 11, 2004, and its aftermath. Tampere University, Finland.
[http://tampub.uta.fi/handle/10024/66534]
Siradag, Abdurrahim (2012) Causes, rationales and dynamics: Exploring the strategic security
partnership between the European Union and Africa. Leiden University, the Netherlands
Skuldt, Amanda C. (2013) State sponsored terrorism? Leader survival and the foreign policy of
fear. University of Texas – Austin, U.S.A.
Smith, Clifford Keith (2007) Development of prototype guidelines for risk management against
terror attack in the tourism industry: A Delphi study. Texas A&M University, U.S.A.
195 December 2013

Smith, Una (2011) Globalisation and the spread of terrorism in Northern and sub-Saharan
Africa: Causes and consequences. Massey University, New Zealand.
Sowerby, Catherine Ann (2008) Responses to terrorism in a European context: An application of

Q methodology. Keele University, U.K.
Spiegel, Eric Baron (2005) Internal and environmental buffers of terrorism-related anxiety.
University of Maryland, U.S.A.
[http://drum.lib.umd.edu/handle/1903/2367]
Sproat, Peter Alan (1997) An investigation of the concept of state terrorism. University of
Newcastle upon Tyne, U.K.
Sreedharan, C. (2009) Reporting Kashmir: An analysis of the conflict coverage in Indian and
Pakistani newspapers. Bournemouth University, U.K.
[http://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/17116/]
Stampnitzky, Lisa Rachel (2008) Disciplining an unruly field: Terrorism studies and the state,
1972-2001. University of California, Berkeley, U.S.A.
[http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/23109/Stampnitzky.pdf]
Stanley, Wesley (2010) Examining the link between regime type and terrorism: An evaluation of
recent trends. Georgetown University, U.S.A.
[http://repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/553589]
Stefatos, Katherine (2011) Engendering the nation: Women, state oppression and political
violence in post-war Greece (1946-1974). Goldsmiths College (University of London) U.K.
Steinel, Anna (2007) Power, structures, and norms: Determinants and patterns of NATO-Russia
relations since 1997. University of Berlin, Germany.
[http://edoc.hu-berlin.de/dissertationen/steinel-anna-2007-10-23/PDF/steinel.pdf]
Stolovitskaia, Anastassia (2008) The rise of Homo Islamicus: American collective identity
markers and terrorist identity markers as they reveal themselves in a discursive cohesion of
concepts ‘terrorism’ and ‘Islam’ in the Washington Post 2001-2008. Roskilde University,
Denmark.
196 December 2013

Strindberg, Nils Tage Anders (2011) From the river to the sea? Honour, identity and politics in
historical and contemporary Palestinian rejectionism. University of St Andrews, U.K.
Sun, Holly (2010) Military manpower quality: A victim of the Global War on Terror?
Georgetown University, U.S.A.
Sun, Qiankun (2008) Statistical modeling and inference for multiple temporal or spatial cluster
detection. Rutgers University, U.S.A.
Synnestvedt Jensen, Louise (2013) Terrorism or hacking? A law interpretation on the concept of
cyber terrorism. Linnæus University, Sweden.
[http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-25203]
Tamana, Aazar (2010) US-Pakistan cooperation and Pakistan's security post-9/11. Curtin
University of Technology, Australia.
[http://espace.library.curtin.edu.au:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-
full&object_id=151594&local_base=gen01-era02]
Teahen, Shannon Hope (2008) Nuisance to crisis: Conceptualizing terrorism during the Nixon
administration. University of Waterloo, U.S.A.
Teemu, Sinkkonen (2009) Political responses to terrorism: Case study on the Madrid terrorist
attack on March 11, 2004, and its aftermath. University of Tampere, Finland.
[http://tampub.uta.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/66534/978-951-44-7872-7.pdf?sequence=1]
Tellidis, Ioannis (2008) Preventing terrorism? Conflict resolution and nationalist violence in the
Basque country. University of St Andrews, U.K.
Tembo, Edgar B. (2011) Assessing British and American counter-terrorism: intelligence, law
enforcement and military force (2006-2009) University of Sheffield, U.K.
Terzic, Ibrahim (2008) Terror discourse in British media 2005. University of Helsinki, Finland.
197 December 2013

Teymur, Samih (2004) An analysis of terrorist recruitment by observing DHKP/C

(Revolutionary People's Liberation Party/Front) terrorist organization in Turkey. University of
North Texas, U.S.A.
Thompson, Alexi (2008) Terrorism's effect on tourism: Developed vs. developing countries.
Auburn University, U.S.A.
Thorne, Sara (2010) Failures of imagination: Terrorist incident response in the context of crisis
management. University of Portsmouth, U.K.
[http://eprints.port.ac.uk/2650/]
Thurmond, Angela (2006) Terrorism in the age of Just War thinking. Louisiana State University,
U.S.A.
Tijhuis, Antonius Johannes Gerhardus (2006) Transnational crime and the interface between
legal and illegal actors: The case of the illicit art and antiquities trade. Leiden University, the
Netherlands.
Tinnes, Judith (2010) Internetnutzung islamistischer Terror- und Insurgentengruppen unter

besonderer Berücksichtigung von medialen Geiselnahmen im Irak, Afghanistan, Pakistan und
Saudi-Arabien [in German]. Saarbrücken University, Germany.
[http://www.dart-europe.eu/full.php?id=277593]
Tontoh, Francis (2008) Evaluation of money laundering regulations in Ghana. Blekinge

Institute of Technology, Sweden.
[http://www.bth.se/fou/cuppsats.nsf/6753b78eb2944e0ac1256608004f0535/
b0a92934ff185eadc125768f004d188e?OpenDocument]
Toros, Harmonie (2009) Terrorism, talking and transformation, Northern Ireland and
Mindanao. Aberystwyth: The University of Wales.
Tripathi, Deepak (2012) A critical study of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars: Interests, motives,
actions and the makings of a culture of violence. Roehampton University, U.K.
[http://roehampton.openrepository.com/roehampton/handle/10142/279052]
198 December 2013

Tullberg, Emily (2006) The outside on the inside: An analysis of European Union and Finnish
state discourses on borders, security and mobility. University of Helsinki, Finland.
Turksen, Umut (2008) Protection seekers, states and the new security agenda. University of
West of England, Bristol, U.K.
Valiyev, Anar (2007) Urban terrorism: Do terrorists target cities and why? University of
Louisville, U.S.A.
[http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/ER/detail/hkul/4354448]
Van de Voorde, Cecile Valerie (2006) Freedom fighters, freedom haters, martyrs, and evildoers:
The social construction of suicide terrorism. University of South Florida, U.S.A.
[http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/2734/]
Vasconcelosm Caeiro A. (2011) Fatwas for European Muslims: the minority fiqh project and the
integration of Islam in Europe. Universiteit Utrecht, the Netherlands.
Vasconcelos, Maria LuiÌsa Silva de (2003) Terrorism and the use of violence in Portugal: from
the establishment of the Estado Novo to democratic stability University of Aberdeen, U.K.
Vidanage, Harinda Ranura (2009) Exploring the impact of online politics on political agents and
political strategies in the Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora. University of Edinburgh, U.K.
[https://www.era.lib.ed.ac.uk/handle/1842/5949]
Vishnevetsky, Michael (2009) A socio-historical study into the emergence and development of
terrorist networks in the post-Soviet Chechen Republic. Keele University
Vollmer, Brianne (2006) Biometrics, RFID technology, and the ePassport: Are Americans risking
personal security in the face of terrorism? Georgetown University, U.S.A.
Walker, Clive (1982) The prevention of terrorism in British law. The University of Manchester,
U.K.
199 December 2013

Wang, Tsai-Yeh (2010) British women’s travel writings in the era of the French Revolution.
University of Birmingham. U.K.
Wicaksana, I Gede Wahyu (2012) Islam and Indonesia's foreign policy, with special focus on
Jakata-Islamabad relations. University of Western Australia, Australia.
Williams, Zachary (2008) Supply chain security: An institutional approach to strategies and
outcomes. Mississippi State University, U.S.A.
[http://sun.library.msstate.edu/ETD-db/theses/available/etd-03312008-163918/]
Williamson, Jason Kirk (2012) Mutable terrorism: Gerhard Richter, Hans-Peter Feldmann, and
the cultural memory of Germany’s Red Army Faction. University of Texas – Austin, U.S.A.
Williamson, Myra Elsie Jane Bell (2007) Terrorism, war and international law: The legality of
the use of force against Afghanistan in 2001. University of Waikato, New Zealand.
Willschick, Elliott (2010) A comparative constitutional analysis of the judicial treatment of

torture between Israel and the United States: Navigating the contentious issue of legality vs. policy
in national security matters. University of Toronto, Canada.
Wilson, John Tyler (2011) Emergence delirium subsequent to general anesthesia in service
members who served during the global war on terrorism. East Carolina University, U.S.A.
Wittig, Timothy Simon (2009) Power, value, and the individual exchange: Towards an improved
conceptualization of terrorist finance. University of St Andrews, U.K.
Wolny, Kerstin (2006) Die völkerrechtliche Kriminalisierung von modernen Akten des
internationalen Terrorismus: unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des IStGH-Statuts [in German].
Universität St.Gallen, Switzerland.
[http://www1.unisg.ch/www/edis.nsf/wwwDisplayIdentifier/3251/$FILE/dis3251.pdf]
Wong, Yuna Huh (2006) Ignoring the innocent: Non-combatants in urban operations and in
military models and simulations. Pardee RAND Graduate School, U.S.A.
200 December 2013

Worrell, Blake (2007) Determinants of international terrorist group formation, 1968-1999.

University of North Texas, U.S.A.
Worysz, Michael W. (2011) Hamas suicide terrorism: A last resort. Georgetown University,
U.S.A.
Wright, Timothy Gregory Arthur (2007) Education and conflict: Border schools in Western
Uganda. University of Warwick, U.K.
Yaakub, Ahmad Nizar (2009) Malaysia and Indonesia: A study of foreign policies with special
reference to bilaterial relations. University of Western Australia, Australia
Yayla, Ahmet (2005) Terrorism as a social information entity: A model for early intervention.
University of North Texas, U.S.A.
Yehia, Hanan (2010) I don't want to pay for that! Representation and the public opinion—
foreign policy dynamic: public opinion on U.S. foreign aid spending from 1973 to 2005.
Georgetown University, U.S.A.
Ygot-Riikonen, Maria Sheila (2004) "Quest for peace": Terrorism and conflict resolution
amongst Muslims and Christians in Southern Philippines. University of Helsinki, Finland.
Yoon, Joon Hyuk (2013) A critical overview of international law with regard to the problem of
terrorism in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. University of Ottawa,
Canada.
Zhirkov, K. (2010) The social dominance perspective on support of terrorism among Muslims: A
cross-national study. Universiteit Utrecht, the Netherlands.
201 December 2013

Zilbershtein, Gali (2010) Architecture in the era of terror: Design and perception of security in
two societies. Texas A&M University, U.S.A.
[http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/ETD-TAMU-2009-05-671]
See these and other resources on the Internet:

British Library – Ethos http://ethos.bl.uk/Home.do
DART-Europe E-theses Portal http://www.dart-europe.eu/advanced-search.php
German National Library
http://www.dnb.de/EN/Wir/Kooperation/dissonline/dissonline.html
Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations (NDLTD) http://www.ndltd.org/
ProQuest http://disexpress.umi.com/dxweb
U.S. Library of Congress http://oatd.org/
….and search institutional repositories or national libraries.
About the Compiler: Eric Price is a Professional Information Specialist who, after a career with
the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), joined Perspectives of Terrorism as Editorial
Assistant.
202 December 2013

V. Book Reviews
“Counterterrorism Bookshelf ” – 20 Important Books on Terrorism
& Counterterrorism Related Subjects
by Joshua Sinai
This review column is the first in a series of columns that will provide a selective listing of
important books by leading publishers on terrorism and counterterrorism-related subjects.
The listings of publishers and their books are arranged in alphabetical order by publishers’
names, with their imprints included in their particular section. Within each section, the books
are listed in alphabetical order, according to the lead author’s last name. Although most of the
reviewed books are current, a few were published within the last several years, but are still
considered to be important. Future columns will review books by publishers such as CRC
Press, Hurst, Oxford University Press, Routledge, Stanford University Press, Springer, and
University of Chicago Press.
ABC Clio/Praeger
James Dingley, The IRA: The Irish Republican Army. Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger, 2012. 242
pages, US$52.00 [Hardcover], ISBN: 978-0-313-38703-6.
A comprehensive and authoritative examination of the IRA’s ideological and organizational

origins and evolution and how these trends have influenced its terrorist warfare until the
beginning of the peace process that resolved the Northern Ireland conflict. Chapters cover
topics such as the philosophy and theology of Irish Republicanism, a history of Ireland and the
emergence of the IRA, the transformation of the IRA into PIRA (Provisional IRA), strategic
and tactics, weapons and targets, organization and structure, the imprisonment of IRA
operatives, the role of Sinn Fein (its political front), and funding. Although these topics are
well covered, one of the book’s flaws is its lack of coverage of the peace process that was led by
the British and Irish governments, which enabled PIRA and its leaders and operatives to re-
integrate into Northern Ireland society and politics, thereby depriving the book of a wider
context in which to understand the latest developments affecting IRA/PIRA. The author, a
visiting research fellow at Queens University in Belfast, is a veteran analyst on terrorism and
counterterrorism in Northern Ireland.
Daniel E. Price, Sacred Terror: How Faith Becomes Lethal. Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger, 2012.
268 pages, US$48.00, [Hardcover], ISBN: 978-0-313-38638-1.
An examination of whether and under what circumstances the theology and ideology of
religion (whether Christian, Jewish, or Islamic) "causes" terrorism, when the same religious
texts and traditions may be utilized by different elements to promote peaceful or violent
objectives. To validate this hypothesis, the author examines how religion-based terrorism has
203 December 2013

manifested itself throughout history, including how it compares with other forms of terrorism.
One of the book’s findings is that the “real causes” of religion-based terrorism are influenced
by other forces in society, such as uthoritarianism, global power imbalance, foreign invasion
and occupation, globalization of the world economy, rapid modernization, and group
psychology. The author is an assistant professor at Westfield State University, Massachusetts.
Amsterdam University Press

Joseph Alagha, The Shifts in Hizbullah’s Ideology: Religious Ideology, Political Ideology, and
Political Program. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Amsterdam University Press, 2006. 380
pages, US$49.50 [Paperback], ISBN-13: 978-9053569108.
An examination of the origins and evolution of Hizballah’s ideology since its founding as a
Lebanese Shi’ite organization in 1978. The volume covers topics such as Hizballah’s history
from 1978 to 2005, changes in its religious and political ideology, and the implications of such
changes on its political program and militant activities. The book is based on the author’s
doctoral dissertation. The author is Associate Professor of Islamic Studies at Radboud
University Nijmegen, the Netherlands.
Joseph Alagha, Hizbullah’s Documents: From the 1985 Open Letter to the 2009 Manifesto.
Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Pallas Publications/Amsterdam University Press, 2011. 222
pages, US$24.95 [Paperback] ISBN-13: 978-9085550372.
A valuable compilation of primary documents about Hizballah’s political program, beginning

with the party’s 1985 “Open Letter to the Oppressed in Lebanon” through its November 2009
Political Manifesto. These documents, which provide a firsthand portrait of Hizballah’s
political evolution over the years, are accompanied by an introductory chapter, extensive
footnotes, commentary, background information, glossary, and chronology. The author is
Associate Professor of Islamic Studies at Radboud University Nijmegen, the Netherlands.
Joseph Alagha, Hizbullah’s Identity Construction. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Amsterdam

University Press, 2011. 308 pages, US$29.95 [Paperback], ISBN-13: 978-9089642974.
An examination of the historical origin and evolution of Hizballah’s political program,

including its attitudes toward terrorism and suicide martyrdom operations, as well as
involvement in Lebanese politics. The author is Associate Professor of Islamic Studies at
Radboud University Nijmegen, the Netherlands.
Zoltan Pall, Lebanese Salafis Between the Gulf and Europe: Development, Fractionalization and
Transnational Networks of Salafism in Lebanon. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Amsterdam
University Press, 2013. 120 pages, US$25.00 [Paperback], ISBN-13: 978-9089644510.
An innovative and interesting exploration of the dynamics of the Salafi movement worldwide
and how these dynamics are reflected in the actions of their networks in Lebanon. The author
is Ph.D. candidate at the Faculty of Humanities, Utrecht University, the Netherlands.
204 December 2013

The Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy, Dynamism in Islamic Activism:
Reference Points for Democratization and Human Rights. Amsterdam, The Netherlands:
Amsterdam University Press, 2006. 238 pages, US$49.95 [Paperback], ISBN-13:
978-9053569184.
A conceptually important examination of the interplay between Islamic beliefs, political

activism, society and law in twelve Islamic countries since the 1970s.
Ashgate
Imran Awan and Brian Blakemore, editors, Extremism, Counter-Terrorism and Policing.
Burlington, VT: Ashgate, 2013. 174 pages, US$99.95, [Hardcover], ISBN: 978-1-4094-5321-5
The contributors to this important volume examine how violent extremism proliferates in
society and the types of measures (including policing) required to counter extremism at the
international and community levels. Chapters cover topics such as the origins and psychology
of extremism, the nature of extremist groups and organizations, and the relationship between
extremism, counterterrorism, and policing.
Warren Chin, Britain and the War on Terror: Policy, Strategy and Operations. Burlington, VT:
Ashgate, 2013. 250 pages, US$99.95 [Hardcover], ISBN-978-0-7546-9528-8.
A critical examination of the nature of Britain’s role in the “war on terror” and how, according
to the author, the military component became the dominant theme of what is basically an
ideological and political conflict. To examine this thesis, the author discusses Britain’s strategic
framework for conducting the “war on terror”, al Qaida’s strategic framework for its political,
religious, and military warfare, the decision of the British government to intervene in Iraq in
2003 and its involvement in the country through 2009, British strategy and operations in
Afghanistan from 2006 to 2010, and British countermeasures against the terrorist warfare
waged by al Qaida and its affiliates in the United Kingdom. The author is Senior Lecturer in
the Defence Studies Department, King's College London, UK, and Visiting Scholar at the
International Centre for Muslim and non-Muslim Understanding, University of South
Australia.
Michael Freeman, editor. Financing Terrorism: Case Studies. Burlington, VT: Ashgate, 2012.
256 pages, US$99.95 [Hardcover], ISBN-13: 978-1409442615.
The contributors to this important volume examine issues involved in financing terrorism and
the countermeasures required in response. Chapters cover topics such as the theory and
typology of different sources of terrorist financing, as well as case studies of financing by
terrorist insurgents in Iraq, the Lebanese Hizballah, the Kurdish PKK, the Pakistani LeT, the
Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan, the Sri Lankan LTTE, terrorist groups in the Philippines,
the Loyalists in Northern Ireland, Islamist militants in Albania, and the FARC and ELN in
Colombia. The concluding chapter discusses how to “think critically” about terrorist
205 December 2013

financing. Michael Freeman, the volume’s editor, is an Assistant Professor at the Naval
Postgraduate School.
Bloomsbury
Emma Leonard and Gilbert Ramsay, editors. Globalizing Somalia: Multilateral, International,
and Transnational Repercussions of Conflict. New York, NY: Bloomsbury, 2013. 304 pages, US
$34.95 [Paperback], ISBN-13: 978-1780935690.
The contributors to this volume examine the repercussions at the regional and international
levels of the inability of the international and multilateral community (such as the United
Nations) to resolve the conflict in Somalia, particularly the failure (also by local actors) to
establish a stable government in this war-torn country. Chapters cover topics such as the
effectiveness of international and regional peacekeeping forces in Somalia, the nature of the
“Jihadi” insurgency in Somalia and the involvement in foreign fighters in its warfare, the threat
posed by Somali piracy and its links to international crime, the nature of involvement by the
United States, Japan, China, and the European Union in Somalia, and recommendations for
new intervention measures that may be more effective at resolving the conflict in Somalia.
Gilbert Ramsay, Jihadi Culture on the World Wide Web. New York, NY: Bloomsbury, 2013. 272
pages, US$130.00 [Hardcover], ISBN-13: 978-1441175625.
An examination of the utilization of the Internet by militant Jihadis for objectives such as
propaganda, radicalization and recruitment of new adherents. Using both Arabic and English
primary source materials, the author examines the interaction between the “producers” of
such content and their “consumers” in order to demonstrate how Jihadism is practiced in
cyberspace. Also discussed are the measures used by those who are opposed to such extremist
activities. The author is Lecturer at The Handa Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political
Violence, University of St Andrews.
Columbia University Press

David H. Ucko and Robert Egnell. Counterinsurgency in Crisis: Britain and the Challenges of
Modern Warfare. New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 2013. 248 pages, US$50.00
[Hardcover], ISBN: 978-0-231-16426-9.
An examination of the effectiveness of Britain’s counterinsurgency campaigns in Iraq and

Afghanistan, where (the authors contend) they failed to defeat the insurgents, particularly in
Basra (in Iraq) and Helmand (in Afghanistan). One of the authors’ conclusions is that “an
‘indirect’ means of intervention, centered on advising, training, and employing a foreign
fighting force rather than on relying primarily on your own troops” (page 156) may be more
effective than conducting “direct” counterinsurgency campaigns, since it is the local actors
who must be responsible for defending themselves against their own internal threats. David
206 December 2013

Ucko is associate professor at the College of International Security Affairs, National Defense
University, and Robert Egnell is visiting associate professor and Director of Teaching in the
Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, both in Washington, DC.
Cornell University Press

Carolyn Gallaher, After the Peace: Loyalist Paramilitaries in Post-Accord Northern Ireland.
Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2007. 272 pages, US$28.50 [Paperback], ISBN-13:
978-0801474262.
An important, field research-based examination of the state of the Protestant Loyalist

paramilitaries in Northern Ireland, almost a decade after the signing of the peace accords that
ended the conflict. The author discusses the problems that plagued the demilitarization of the
Loyalist paramilitaries, which were due to factors such as internecine personal and political
divisions and rivalries and reluctance by some to give up their criminal enterprises. Others,
nevertheless, sought to utilize the peace process to rebuild their communities and participate
in the political process. All these factors are crucial in understanding the current situation in
Northern Ireland’s post-accord era from the Loyalists’ vantage point. The author is
Associate Professor, School of International Service, American University, Washington, DC.
Ahmed S. Hashim, Insurgency and Counter-Insurgency in Iraq. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University
Press, 2006. 512 pages, $25.12 [Hardcover], ISBN-13: 978-0801444524.
A well-informed account of the nature, motives, tactics and effectiveness of the many groups
that formed the insurgency in Iraq and the U.S.-led counterinsurgency campaign against it,
following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime in March 2003. The author is Associate
Professor in Security Studies at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang
Technological University in Singapore (but taught at the U.S. Naval War College when the
book was published).
Jennifer M. Hazen, What Rebels Want: Resources and Supply Networks in Wartime. Ithaca, NY:
Cornell University Press, 2013. 208 pages, US $45.00 [Hardcover], ISBN-13: 978-0801451669.
An innovative account of the methods and tactics used by rebel groups to finance their
activities in order to obtain weapons, ammunition, and other vital supplies, which is an
important factor in understanding the trajectory of their capabilities and options in
conducting their insurgencies. The author argues that rebel groups often fail to obtain what
they require, with this thesis examined in the cases of civil wars in Sierra Leone, Liberia, and
Côte d'Ivoire. The author has extensive experience working with NGOs in West Africa and is
currently a senior analyst with BAE Systems.
Helen M. Kinsella, The Image Before the Weapon: A Critical History of the Distinction Between
Combatant and Civilian. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2011. 264 pages, US$39.95
[Hardcover], ISBN13: 9780801449031.
207 December 2013

A valuable discussion of the difficulty of applying international humanitarian law in

distinguishing between combatant and civilian in warfare – whether regular or irregular, such
as terrorism. The author is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of
Wisconsin–Madison.
Zachariah Cherian Mampilly, Rebel Rulers: Insurgent Governance and Civilian Life During
War. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2011. 320 pages, US$45.00 [Hardcover], ISBN-13:
978-0801449130.
A theoretically important examination of the nature of “governance” by rebel groups when

they succeed in seizing power, whether over a portion of territory or an entire state, because
such an aspect of insurgencies is generally overlooked by the literature on insurgency and its
aftermath. Components of rebel governance are examined, such as the capacity to deliver
public services to the populations under their control, ranging from police and courts,
schools, hospitals, and taxation systems, as well as symbolic expressions such as adherence to
“official” flags and anthems, in order to generate and sustain compliance to their rule. This
framework is applied comparatively to the case studies of three diverse insurgent organizations
—the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka, the Rally for Congolese
Democracy (RCD) in Congo, and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A)
in Sudan. The author is Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of Africana
Studies at Vassar College.
Idean Salehyan, Rebels Without Borders: Transnational Insurgencies in World Politics. Ithaca,
NY: Cornell University Press, 2009. 216 pages, US$21.00 [Paperback], ISBN-13:
978-0801477546.
A conceptually innovative account of how conflicts that are considered to be primarily

“internal” wars often spill across their national boundaries, with rebel organizations finding
sanctuaries among supporting elements in neighboring countries, with such spillover
potentially giving rise to wider regional conflicts and diplomatic and military disputes
between such states. To examine this thesis, the author formulates a theory of transnational
rebellions which is based on cross-national datasets and case studies of cross-border
insurgencies, such as the Contra bases in Honduras and Costa Rica (which facilitated the
Nicaraguan civil war), the Rwandan civil war (which spilled over into the Democratic
Republic of the Congo), as well as the Kurdish PKK and Taliban forces in Afghanistan and
Pakistan. The concluding chapter presents a summary of findings, recommendations for
improving theories of conflict, and policy implications. The author is Associate Professor of
Political Science at the University of North Texas.
Claudia Verhoeven, The Odd Man Karakozov: Imperial Russia, Modernity and the Birth of
Terrorism. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2009. 248 pages, US$42.50 [Hardcover], US
$23.95 [Paperback], ISBN-13: 978-0801477577.
208 December 2013

A highly interesting account of the modern origins of the revolutionary political violence
known as terrorism through the persona of Dmitry Karakozov, a revolutionary anarchist, who
pulled out a pistol and shot at Czar Alexander II, on April 4, 1866. Although the shot missed,
this “unheard-of-act” of rebellion against authority served to change the course of Russian
history and inaugurated the first wave of terrorism’s modern era. The author is Assistant
Professor of Modern European History at George Mason University.
About the Reviewer: Dr. Joshua Sinai is the Book Reviews Editor of ‘Perspectives on Terrorism’.
He can be reached at: [email protected].
209 December 2013

VI. Notes from the Editors

About Perspectives on Terrorism
Perspectives on Terrorism (PT) is a joint publication of the Terrorism Research Initiative (TRI),
headquartered in Vienna, Austria, and the Center for Terrorism and Security Studies (CTSS),
headquartered at the Lowell Campus of the University of Massachusetts, United States of
America.
PT is published six times per year as a free peer-reviewed online journal available at
www.terrorismanalysts.com. It seeks to provide a platform for established scholars as well as
academics and professionals entering the interdisciplinary fields of Terrorism, Political
Violence and Conflict Studies. The editors invite readers to:
• present their perspectives on the prevention of, and response to, terrorism and
related forms of violent conflict;
• submit to the journal accounts of evidence-based, empirical scientific research and

analyses;
• use the journal as a forum for debate and commentary on issues related to the
above.
Perspectives on Terrorism has sometimes been characterised as ‘nontraditional’ in that it

dispenses with some of the traditional rigidities associated with commercial print journals.
Topical articles can be published at short notice and reach, through the Internet, a much larger
audience than subscription-fee based paper journals. Our free on-line journal also offers
contributors a higher degree of flexibility in terms of content, style and length of articles - but
without compromising professional scholarly standards.
The journal’s articles are peer-reviewed by members of the Editorial Board as well as outside
experts. While aiming to be policy-relevant, PT does not support any partisan policies
regarding (counter-) terrorism and conflict-waging. Impartiality, objectivity and accuracy are
guiding principles that we require contributors to adhere to.
210 December 2013

Editorial Team of Perspectives on Terrorism

Alex P. Schmid, Editor-in-Chief
James J.F. Forest, Co- Editor
Joseph J. Easson, Associate Editor
Tim Pippard, Assistant Editor
Joshua Sinai, Books Reviews Editor
Eric Price, Editorial Assistant
Judith Tinnes, Editorial Assistant
Legal Note: Perspectives on Terrorism (PT) hosts articles that reflect a diversity of opinions.
The views expressed therein, and the empirical evidence cited in their support, remain the sole
responsibility of the contributing authors; they do not necessarily reflect positions and views
of the journal’s Editorial Team and Editorial Board or PT’s parent organizations, the Terrorism
Research Initiative (TRI) and the Center for Terrorism and Security Studies (CTSS).
211 December 2013

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Volume VII, Issue 6

Announcement: Best PhD Thesis in the Field of (Counter-) Terrorism

Announcement: TRI/CTSS Vienna Conference.....................................8

Sri Lanka’s Post-Conflict Strategy: Restorative Justice for Rebels and

Salafi Violence and Sufi Tolerance? Rethinking Conventional Wisdom

Simultaneous Attacks by Terrorist Organisations................................79

II. Policy Notes

Rethinking International Counterterrorism Assistance to the Greater

III. Research Notes

Risks of Terrorism, Homicide and Illness: a Methodological

Selected Dissertations and Theses on Terrorism, Counterterrorism

VI. Notes from the Editors

Welcome from the Editors

The Editorial Team of Perspectives on Terrorism is pleased to present to the research

Perspectives on Terrorism was founded in 2007 by Robert Wesley, President of the Terrorism

Prof. James J.F. Forest

Announcement: Best PhD Thesis in the Field of (Counter-)

Announcement: TRI/CTSS Vienna Conference

February 6, 2014 (13:30 – 18:00 hours)

February 7, 2014 (13:30 – 18:00 hours)

For registration, contact: Nico Prucha at: < [email protected] >.

Keywords: media, influence, counterterrorism, perception

Table 1: Arab Media Data Sources

Table 2: Western Media Data Sources

Western Media Metrics

Metrics of Violence and Military Conflict

The War of Ideas

Hearts and Minds

Global Insurgency and the ‘Homegrown’ Threat

The Limits of American Power

When terrorists strike against constitutional democracies, one of their intentions

Arab Media Metrics

It is impossible in analytical or historical terms to separate the four main strands

Addressing ‘Root Causes’

U.S. Policy in the Middle East

Making the World a Safer Place?

Maintaining Liberal Democratic Standards

Discussion of al-Qaeda’s aims and achievements is comparatively overlooked. Coverage is

[55] Burke, J. (2011). The 9/11 wars. Allen Lane.

Sri Lanka’s Post-Conflict Strategy: Restorative Justice for Rebels and

prominent mainstream Tamil political leaders, including

However, some news reports that have appeared

Commissioner for an international inquiry, “in the absence of meaningful progress on

Prime Minister S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike’s post-Independence government sought to change

The LTTE simultaneously followed an aggressive disinformation campaign overseas to raise

Sri Lanka’s Innovative Rehabilitation Program for Former LTTE Combatants

The program “Way-Forward on Rehabilitation, Reinsertion, and Reintegration” (W-RRR) of

The Educational Rehabilitation included providing formal education to beneficiaries under 18

Vocational Rehabilitation included skills development for Agriculture, Carpentry, Masonry,

Recreational Rehabilitation included beneficiary participation in team sports such as cricket,

Economic reintegration was to be achieved by providing employment or support for self-

Rehabilitation Programs for Child Combatants

Demonstrating Eﬀectiveness of Cognitive Transformation

An independent assessment of the eﬀectiveness of the rehabilitation program was conducted

Many beneficiaries of the rehabilitation program were observed to have undergone a

The Continued Challenge of Economic Reintegration

Rebuilding the Conflict-aﬀected Communities in the North and East

Reconstruction of Key Economic and Social Infrastructure

Reconstruction of key economic infrastructure included increased banking and finance