Investec 4 Factor Strategy
Investec 4 Factor Strategy
Investec 4 Factor Strategy
Confidential
Contents
Contents 2
Executive summary 4
Long-term results 14
Appendix 17
Important information 20
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Introduction to Investec Asset
Management
1998
2006
2013
2018
2010
Founded Significant expansion of Over 1,000
in South Africa client footprint, including permanent
Employees employees
North America
acquired equity
International ownership in
growth into the Established local the firm
UK and Asia presence in Europe
Source: Investec Asset Management, data as at financial year end unless otherwise indicated.
*as at 31 December 2018.
It all began in South Africa in 1991. After more than twenty-seven years, we have
grown to become an established global investment management firm. We continue
to develop our owner culture and are committed to building a long-term inter-
generational business. The founding leadership is still in place, offering stability and
a long-term investment outlook for clients.
Our overriding aim is to manage our investments to the highest standard possible
and thereby exceed our clients’ investment and service expectations.
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Executive summary
*Based on since inception performance gross and net. Past performance is not a
reliable indicator of future result, losses may be made.
Source: Investec Asset Management, 31 December 2018.
From traditional finance theory we look for two things; an effective company
strategy and stocks trading at a discount to fair value:
Strategy: We favour companies that demonstrate good returns on capital, are led
by competent management teams and which have created value for shareholders
both by reinvesting in their businesses and returning cash to shareholders where
appropriate.
Value: We seek out companies that are trading at a discount relative to their
fundamental economic prospects using a range of high efficacy valuation metrics.
For further information on the investment process and investment team, please see
the Important Information section.
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From behavioural finance we look for companies with positive trends in earnings
revisions and upward share price momentum:
BIAS TRENDS OUR APPROACH
Earnings
Anchoring
revisions
EARNINGS
TECHNICALS
Earnings: In assessing the multitude of data and news releases, investors are
prone to common behavioural mistakes which lead to them under-reacting to new
information. We therefore prefer companies that are seeing upward revisions to
expectations for profitability, in anticipation that this positive trend will continue
because of under-reaction to previously disseminated information.
Technicals: We believe that share price trends contain important information due
to investors’ trend following and herding behaviours. Being aware of share price
trends makes our process reactive to investor sentiment towards a stock. We prefer
to invest in companies whose share prices are already in established uptrends as
under and over-reaction can lead these trends to persist over time.
We will never deviate from seeking investment opportunities that offer attractive
exposure to these four characteristics and we believe this strong, focussed
philosophy will help our portfolios outperform over the long term.
For further information on the investment process and investment team, please see
the Important Information section.
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Team united by a common language
A diverse range of In order to successfully implement the investment framework across the range of
global and regional strategies, we have built a team of investment specialists
backgrounds, skills and comprising a diverse range of backgrounds, skills and experience; all unified by the
experience; all unified by the common language of 4Factor.
common language of
4Factor
Contributions of a
33 person team Dedicated ESG
with 16 years’ Support
average experience
For further information on the investment process and investment team, please see
the Important Information section.
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Differentiated, disciplined
process
Fundamental investors, A strong investment philosophy is only the first stage in seeking to create
outperforming portfolios. This philosophy then needs to be implemented through an
harnessing technology effective framework. The 4Factor team has constructed a rigorous and repeatable
framework to ensure consistency over the long term.
An initial screen processes data on a weekly basis on all stocks in the strategy’s
investable universe; objectively ranking these companies based on our philosophy
and investment criteria. The screen provides our investment specialists with a short-
list of potentially attractive investment opportunities worthy of being taken forward
for thorough fundamental analysis. The investment team then assesses the
investment case for each of these securities to identify our highest conviction ideas
for inclusion in the Global Core Equity portfolio.
The 4Factor investment process includes quantitative and fundamental components
working hand-in-hand to select and build portfolios; with important concepts like risk
management and ESG featuring throughout.
RISK MANAGEMENT
SE
VT
ESG
*‘Good ideas’ represent the number of 4Factor high scoring stocks from the initial
screen. These internal parameters and process are subject to change not
necessarily with prior notification. Figures relate to number of stocks.
For further information on the investment process and investment team, please see
the Important Information section.
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4Factor screen
The process begins with a broad initial universe of all global stocks with a market
capitalisation greater than US$1 billion and over $10 million average daily liquidity.
Our proprietary screening tool assimilates vast quantities of information on over
3,500 stocks which form this universe; processing over 3.5 million data points each
week. With complete objectivity, the model systematically ranks each company
based on our investment philosophy, scoring stocks on our four characteristics:
Strategy, Value, Earnings and Technicals.
Each stock is graded 1 to 4 on each of the four factors, then totalled to give each
stock a final score between 4 and 16. The highest scoring stocks in this screen (12
or above) provide our team with a ‘short-list’ of potentially attractive ideas.
The core purpose of the screen is not to make investment decisions, rather to
support the core of our active management by allowing the team to efficiently focus
our thorough fundamental analysis on a manageable subset of worthy
opportunities.
Since inception of the framework in 2000 we have constantly researched and
reviewed our 4Factor screen to ensure that we evolve and enhance the component
metrics which we believe best drive share prices over time and retain efficacy in a
constantly changing market.
Fundamental analysis
Our fundamental analysis, With our energies focussed on the high scoring ideas identified by the screen, our
4Factor team carries out in-depth evaluation to single out the ‘best ideas’ for
just like the screen, follows a inclusion in the Global Core Equity portfolio.
disciplined and consistent
Our fundamental analysis, just like the screen, follows a disciplined and consistent
framework for analysing framework for analysing companies in accordance with our four criteria; Strategy,
companies in accordance Value, Earning and Technicals. At this stage it is the responsibility of the
with our four criteria; experienced team to apply their expertise in fundamentally examining every aspect
of a company’s business model; such as the quality of management, ESG
Strategy, Value, Earning considerations, competitive advantages, opportunities and threats.
and Technicals
The culmination of this work is the investment analyst’s fundamental research
report with an action recommendation which is presented to the wider team for
close examination. At this stage, the 4Factor team interrogates the proposed
investment ensuring it upholds the investment philosophy and offers attractive
valuation upside.
For further information on the investment process and investment team, please see
the Important Information section.
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Official data such as What are we looking for in fundamental analysis?
company reports and Official data such as company reports and accounts are supplemented with best-in-
accounts are supplemented class data sources that can help reveal themes or behaviours not otherwise
with best-in-class data captured. The team also makes use of sell-side and consultant research and
attends conferences to complement the research process.
sources
When researching our Strategy score we are seeking to understand a company’s
key business drivers (sales, margins and asset turnover) as well as the company’s
position in its industry and its ability to grow and return money to shareholders. We
favour companies with high returns on capital, improving margins and asset
turnover, with strong cash flow generation and evidence of a shareholder total
return focus through a coherent capital return policy.
Value analysis brings the investment case together. We use a cash flow return on
investment (CFROI) framework to help us model a range of potential scenarios. We
support this analysis with traditional metrics including weighted Price to Earnings
and sector relative metrics that compare sectors with similar characteristics. We
utilise cash flows rather than profits to improve the comparable analysis across
regions and sectors. Our objective is to understand the longer-term sustainable
value of a company relative to its current share price.
Earnings analysis involves an assessment of recent company earnings to gauge
how operational performance has evolved and whether this is being reflected by
sell-side (broker) estimates. We believe that analysts are slow to reflect new
information, so we are looking for companies that have demonstrated an
improvement in earnings not yet fully reflected in analyst expectations. We examine
the trend in recent earnings estimates, placing greater emphasis on the most recent
changes. We also focus on key opportunities, risks and competitive threats to future
earnings and the quality of the returns that a company is generating; for example,
are accounting profits being turned into cash flow, and how sustainable are these
trends?
Technicals analysis helps us to understand the current market perception of a
stock and how that has changed over time, while also giving an indication of how
sentiment has changed relative to fundamentals. We focus on several measures of
share price momentum, including adjustments for volatility where appropriate.
For further information on the investment process and investment team, please see
the Important Information section.
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Portfolio construction
The “best ideas” identified Based upon the “best ideas” identified by our fundamental analysis, the strategy
leader(s) are then ultimately responsible for selecting and weighting stocks to
by our analysis are used to construct high conviction, risk-aware portfolios in keeping with the strategy’s
construct high conviction, investment guidelines and constraints. Position sizes are typically determined by
risk-aware portfolios our conviction in a stock, combined with its volatility, liquidity, and impact on the
overall risk profile. Our portfolio holdings will always reflect our convictions in line
with our investment philosophy. However, the extent to which our portfolios deviate
from an index neutral position will also depend on the strategy’s prescribed
guidelines and the strategy leader’s judgement on achieving the desired return for
the portfolio.
The investment guidelines and risk constraints for the Global Core Equity Strategy
are as follows:
Global Core Equity Strategy
Number of holdings Maximum 150 (typically 100-120)
Tracking error Maximum 7%
Performance comparison index MSCI All Country (AC) World Index Net Dividends
Reinvested (NDR)
Outperformance target* 2 – 3% per annum gross of fees over rolling 3-year
periods
Risk Constraints
Stock limits +/- 2.5% versus index
Sector limits (GICS level 1) +/- 5% versus index
Industry Group limits +/- 5% versus index
Country limits Maximum +10% relative to index in emerging markets
Market capitalisation Minimum $1 billion
Liquidity Minimum $10 million per day
Performance targets are subject to change and may not necessarily be achieved,
losses may be made.
Source : Investec Asset Management, 31 December 2018
These internal parameters are subject to change not necessarily with prior notification.
* The stated outperformance target (relative to MSCI All Country (AC) World Index, Net
Dividends Reinvested (NDR)) is gross of fees and is determined by the estimated relative
performance which we believe, based on empirical back testing of the 4Factor model within
the strategy’s investable universe, may be achieved (per annum over a rolling three-year
basis) through active application of the 4Factor process, and in accordance with the portfolio
construction parameters of the strategy.
This outperformance target may not be achieved in the event that stocks selected for the
portfolio fail to perform in line with expectations.
‘Best Ideas’ represents our highest conviction ideas following fundamental analysis.
For further information on the investment process and investment team, please see
the Important Information section.
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Sell discipline
Managing risk is a critical At IAM we also believe that an effective sell discipline is an essential part of any
long-term investment process. The 4Factor sell discipline is driven by the same
component of investment investment philosophy and disciplined framework as our investment process. The
management. It is integrated decision to review a position for a potential sale can be triggered either by an
throughout the 4Factor investment case running its course (for example a stock reaches our bull case
investment process valuation) or automatically should its 4Factor screen score fall below 10.
A score falling below 10 triggers a formal review process where the relevant
analysts and strategy leaders evaluate any on-going merits of the investment case.
The default position is that the stock should be sold unless there is clear subjective
reasoning which is not captured in the quantitative scoring. This ensures that we
adhere to an objective, unemotional sell discipline but without the inadequacies of
inflexible stop losses.
At all times our focus is on whether the stock is still philosophically a 4Factor stock.
Risk Management
Managing risk is a critical component of investment management. It is integrated
throughout the 4Factor investment process, from the discipline and consistency of
the overall framework – helping us to avoid behavioural biases on our own part –
through to the firm’s structured oversight of our strategies and investment teams.
Investing, by definition, entails risk. The portfolio itself is bound by clear guidelines
to ensure that only the intended types and levels of risk are taken to meet the return
objectives of the strategy. We distinguish between the types of risk we are willing to
assume and those we attempt to mitigate. Specifically, we want the majority of risk
in the portfolio to be derived from stock-specific decisions. Conversely, we attempt
to dampen portfolio risk from other sources such as market, currency, style, sector
and country.
To achieve this, we work collaboratively with our independent investment risk team
who use a variety of industry recognised risk systems to monitor portfolio risk
characteristics. These include a proprietary style analysis customised for our multi-
factor approach, as well as a statistical decomposition of portfolio tracking error to
identify and avoid any unintended intensification of risk. Our investment risk team
also monitors the portfolio’s concentrations and liquidity characteristics for
adherence to its guidelines and objectives.
Automated restriction monitoring is another key part of our risk control framework.
Investment guidelines are recorded on the trade order management system and
monitored on an objective basis pre- and post-trade to ensure compliance.
For further information on the investment process and investment team, please see
the Important Information section.
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Environmental, Social and Governance integration
Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) integration is a priority for the
leadership at IAM. We believe that treating material ESG issues as an integral part
of the investment analysis brings greater benefits to process rather than treating it
as a separate procedure.
Understanding ESG We have a dedicated global ESG team, which is steered by a senior Investment
Governance Committee. Together with all the investment teams, the ESG team
concerns is an important focuses on integration strategies, ESG research and engagement efforts.
component of 4Factor’s
Understanding ESG concerns is an important component of 4Factor’s bottom-up
bottom-up analysis analysis as we believe it helps us gain a better understanding of a company’s
strategy, one of the four key attributes of our investment philosophy.
1 Universe
screening 2 Fundamental
Analysis 3 Portfolio
Construction 4 Engagement 5 Reporting
For further information on the investment process and investment team, please see
the Important Information section.
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Long-term results
-2
-4
-6
-8
Dec 08
Dec 09
Dec 10
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Apr 09
Aug 09
Apr 10
Aug 10
Apr 11
Aug 11
Apr 12
Dec 13
Dec 14
Aug 12
Apr 13
Aug 13
Apr 14
Aug 14
Apr 15
Aug 15
Apr 16
Aug 16
Apr 17
Aug 17
Apr 18
Aug 18
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, losses may be made.
Noting the above explanation of performance in different markets relates primarily to relative
performance. The Strategy invests in Global market equities and therefore on an absolute
level will be primarily influenced by the performance cycles of Global stock markets.
For further information on the performance target and indices, please see the
Important Information section.
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Long term market-beating results
79%
has been ahead of the 76%
Up
market
benchmark 91% of the time 59%
63%
capture
107%
Ahead of benchmark
9%
Behind benchmark
21%
24%
41%
37%
98%
Down
market
1 month 3 months 1 year 3 years 5 years
capture
Rolling periods
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, losses may be made.
*Proportion of rolling period gross performance figures ahead of versus behind the
benchmark.
Source: Investec Asset Management, 31 December 2018. 4Factor Global Core Equity
Strategy inception date: 01 August 2000. Comparison index: MSCI AC World NDR (pre-Oct-
10, MSCI World NDR). Performance is gross of fees (returns will be reduced by management
fees and other expenses incurred), income reinvested, in USD.
For further information on the performance target and indices, please see the
Important Information section.
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4Factor Global Core Equity
Composite performance in USD (gross and net)
-9.4%
-11.0% -11.5%
-12.8%
-14.1% -14.2%
3 months 1 year 3 years p.a. 5 years p.a. 10 years p.a. Since Inception p.a.*
Calendar Years 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gross composite return 32.8% 14.3% -5.0% 16.5% 29.3% 2.7% -1.9% 3.9% 25.5% -11.0%
Net composite return 32.0% 13.7% -5.5% 15.9% 28.6% 2.2% -2.5% 3.3% 24.8% -11.5%
Comparison index** 30.0% 11.5% -7.3% 16.1% 22.8% 4.2% -2.4% 7.9% 24.0% -9.4%
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, losses may be made.
Source: Investec Asset Management, 31 December 2018. Gross performance (returns will be
reduced by management fees and other expenses incurred). Net performance (net of the
highest institutional segregated portfolio management fee), income is reinvested in USD.
The periodic deduction of fees and expenses will have a compounding effect on performance.
Example effect of management fees taken monthly over 10yrs on the value of a client’s
portfolio: Initial value = $100m, assumed return = 10% p.a., grows to $259m (no fees), grows
to $235m (1.00% p.a. net fees). The annualised returns over 10yrs are 10% (gross of fees)
and 8.91% (net of fees). * 4Factor Global Core Equity Strategy inception date: 01 August
2000. ** Comparison index: MSCI AC World NDR (pre Oct-10, MSCI World NDR).
For further information on the performance target and indices, please see the
Important Information section.
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Appendix
Nigel Hankin Jonathan Parker Greg Kuhnert John McDougall Steven Blackbeard
Global Endurance Global Equity, Global Dividend Asia Pacific, China Europe Factor Research
Ian Vose Christine Baalham Charlie Linton Archie Hart Dario Popadic
Global/International Dynamic Global Endurance Asia Pacific Emerging Markets Factor Research
The investment team is subject to change not necessarily with prior notification. As
at December 2018.
For further information on the investment team, please see the Important
Information section.
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Strategy leader’s biographies
For further information on the investment team, please see the Important
Information section.
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General risks
The value of investments, and any income generated from them, can fall as well as
rise. Where charges are taken from capital, this may constrain future growth.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. If any currency differs
from the investor's home currency, returns may increase or decrease as a result of
currency fluctuations.
Investment objectives and performance targets are subject to change and may not
necessarily be achieved, losses may be made.
Specific risks
Currency exchange: Changes in the relative values of different currencies may
adversely affect the value of investments and any related income.
Derivatives: The use of derivatives is not intended to increase the overall level of
risk. However, the use of derivatives may still lead to large changes in value and
includes the potential for large financial loss. A counterparty to a derivative
transaction may fail to meet its obligations which may also lead to a financial loss.
Emerging market (inc. China): These markets carry a higher risk of financial loss
than more developed markets as they may have less developed legal, political,
economic or other systems.
Equity investment: The value of equities (e.g. shares) and equity-related
investments may vary according to company profits and future prospects as well as
more general market factors. In the event of a company default (e.g. insolvency),
the owners of their equity rank last in terms of any financial payment from that
company.
For further information on the performance target and indices, please see the
Important Information section.
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Important information
The personal information contained in this document is confidential, and only for the information of the intended recipient.
This communication is for institutional investors and financial advisors only. It is not to be distributed to the public or within a
country where such distribution would be contrary to applicable law or regulations. If you are a retail investor and receive it as
part of a general circulation, please contact us at www.investecassetmanagement.com/contactus.
The information may discuss general market activity or industry trends and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast,
research or investment advice. The economic and market views presented herein reflect Investec Asset Management’s
(‘Investec’) judgment as at the date shown and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that views and
opinions expressed will be correct, and Investec’s intentions to buy or sell particular securities in the future may change. The
investment views, analysis and market opinions expressed may not reflect those of Investec as a whole, and different views
may be expressed based on different investment objectives. This communication is based on internal data, public and third
party sources. Although we believe the information to be reliable, we have not independently verified it, and we cannot
guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Investec’s internal data may not be audited. Investec does not provide legal or tax
advice. Prospective investors should consult their tax advisors before making tax-related investment decisions.
Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to enter into any contract, investment advice, a recommendation of any kind, a
solicitation of clients, or an offer to invest in any particular fund, product, investment vehicle or derivative. Investment involves
risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any decision to invest in strategies described herein should be
made after reviewing the offering document and conducting such investigation as an investor deems necessary and consulting
its own legal, accounting and tax advisors in order to make an independent determination of suitability and consequences of
such an investment. This material does not purport to be a complete summary of all the risks associated with this Strategy. A
description of risks associated with this Strategy can be found in the offering or other disclosure documents. Copies of such
documents are available free of charge upon request.
In the US, this communication should only be read by institutional investors, professional financial advisers and their eligible
clients, but must not be distributed to US persons apart from the aforementioned recipients. THIS INVESTMENT IS NOT FOR
SALE TO US PERSONS EXCEPT QUALIFIED PURCHASERS. In Australia, this document is provided for general information
only to wholesale clients (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001). In Hong Kong, this document is intended solely for the use
of the person to whom it has been delivered and is not to be reproduced or distributed to any other persons; this document
shall be delivered to professional financial advisors and institutional and professional investors only. It is issued by Investec
Asset Management Hong Kong Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong
(SFC). The Company’s website has not been reviewed by the SFC and may contain information with respect to non-SFC
authorised funds which are not available to the public of Hong Kong. In Singapore, this document is issued by Investec Asset
Management Singapore Pte Limited (company registration number: 201220398M) for accredited investors, professional
financial advisors and institutional investors only. In Indonesia, Thailand, The Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam this
document is provided in a private and confidential manner to institutional investors only. In South Africa, Investec Asset
Management (Pty) Ltd. is an authorised financial services provider. Investec Asset Management Botswana, Unit 5, Plot 64511,
Fairgrounds, Gaborone, Botswana, is regulated by the Non-Bank Financial Institutions Regulatory Authority. In Namibia,
Investec Asset Management Namibia (Pty) Ltd is regulated by the Namibia Financial Institutions Supervisory Authority.
Except as otherwise authorised, this information may not be shown, copied, transmitted, or otherwise given to any third party
without Investec’s prior written consent. © 2019 Investec Asset Management. All rights reserved. Issued by Investec Asset
Management, issued January 2019.
Indices
Indices are shown for illustrative purposes only, are unmanaged and do not take into account market conditions or the costs
associated with investing. Further, the manager’s strategy may deploy investment techniques and instruments not used to
generate Index performance. For this reason, the performance of the manager and the Indices are not directly comparable.
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If applicable MSCI data is sourced from MSCI Inc. MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall
have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed
or used as a basis for other indices or any securities or financial products. This report is not approved, endorsed, reviewed or
produced by MSCI. None of the MSCI data is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or
refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such.
If applicable FTSE data is sourced from FTSE International Limited (‘FTSE’) © FTSE 2019. Please note a disclaimer applies to
FTSE data and can be found at www.ftse.com/products/downloads/FTSE_Wholly_Owned_Non-Partner.pdf
Investment Team
There is no assurance that the persons referenced herein will continue to be involved with investing for this Strategy, or that
other persons not identified herein will become involved with investing assets for the Manager or assets of the Strategy at any
time without notice. References to specific and periodic team meetings are not guaranteed to be held or fully attended due to
reasonable priority driven circumstances and holidays.
Investment Process
Any description or information regarding investment process or strategies is provided for illustrative purposes only, may not be
fully indicative of any present or future investments and may be changed at the discretion of the manager without notice.
References to specific investments, strategies or investment vehicles are for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied
upon as a recommendation to purchase or sell such investments or to engage in any particular Strategy. Portfolio data is
expected to change and there is no assurance that the actual portfolio will remain as described herein. There is no assurance
that the investments presented will be available in the future at the levels presented, with the same characteristics or be
available at all. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and has no bearing upon the ability of Manager to construct
the illustrative portfolio and implement its investment strategy or investment objective.
Performance Target
The target is based on Manager’s good faith estimate of the likelihood of the performance of the asset class under current
market conditions. There can be no assurances that any Strategy will generate such returns, that any client or investor will
achieve comparable results or that the manager will be able to implement its investment strategy. Actual performance of
Strategy investments and the Strategy overall may be adversely affected by a variety of factors, beyond the manager’s control,
such as, political and socio-economic events, adverse changes in the interest rate environment, changes to investment
expenses, and a lack of suitable investment opportunities. Accordingly, target returns may be expected to change over time
and may differ from previous reports.
References to particular investments or strategies are for illustrative purposes only and should not be seen as a buy, sell or
hold recommendation. Unless stated otherwise, the specific securities listed or discussed are included as representative of the
Strategy. Such references are not a complete list and other positions, strategies, or vehicles may experience results which
differ, perhaps materially, from those presented herein due to different investment objectives, guidelines or market conditions.
The securities or investment products mentioned in this document may not have been registered in any jurisdiction. More
information is available upon request.
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