CNBC Transcript: Julian Robertson Interview
CNBC Transcript: Julian Robertson Interview
ERIN BURNETT: So, it's a big day, Ben Bernanke's coming out, he says $600
billion more, that puts his total, if I do my math right, at $2.1, $2.2 trillion in
quantitative easing.
JULIAN ROBERTSON: Think of the printing presses that are gonna have to be
manufactured to do all this. It's-- it's really something. And-- something that
I think has-- long term ramifications that may not always be great.
ERIN BURNETT: What do you think they're missing? And what are you
worried about this causing?
ERIN BURNETT: So, the argument people make for quantitative easing is,
"Gosh, they've tried everything." But last time, when we first tried it, s-- the
S&P went up 75 percent, so maybe it'll make stock prices go up, maybe that
will make companies feel better, people feel better, they'll hire, people will
buy things. Do you think that that whole argument's crazy?
JULIAN ROBERTSON: Well-- and there maybe another way of doing it. That
may be that we have to do a little personal sacrifice and government
sacrifice. And-- I believe that frankly the American people would be willing to
do that if asked. And-- I think one of the great problems in the world today is
the fact that-- the leaders don't ask.
Right now-- we-- we're-- really in tough shape about-- social security. I
mean, can we pay for it? The answer is, we've gotta make some changes if
we do pay for it. And everybody knows that, and yet everybody's unwilling to
confront that. And-- I would love it if the leadership would confront it and tell
the people what we need to do to square away social security so it really is
social security.
ERIN BURNETT: Do you think that the-- the elections this week, were the
amer-- American public clearly said, "Look, we're-- we're sick of who's been
in office now," they made a real switch towards Republicans. Do you think
that Republicans are gonna be any more courageous in standing up and
addressing social security, addressing-- or having the courage to say,
"You've gotta sacrifice."
ERIN BURNETT: At this point, is there any spending that-- that you would
support? I-- I know back when the original s-- fiscal stimulus package came
out, you weren't a big fan of it, but you wanted more infrastructure spending
in it, because you thought that was investing in the future. Given where we
are now, would you support borrowing any money, printing any money,
whatever way it would be, to put more money into infrastructure or into any
kind of economic stimulus?
JULIAN ROBERTSON: I-- I would probably support-- l-- anything almost that
would-- reduce the-- worry of global warming. 'Cause I think that is still the
world's number one problem. It's sort of been forgotten lately, but-- it's
going to-- it-- it's gonna show up and-- and it's gonna bite us one of these
days.
JULIAN ROBERTSON: Well, it's-- it's-- it's-- it's-- it's pretty tough. But that ad
is-- is-- is a tough ad. But-- and-- and-- I-- I'm kind of pro-Chinese, so I--
but I think it makes you think, and-- I think it's—a…for people to see things
like that. Because in a sense-- we are bigger to become indebted to-- other
people, which I think is very different from what's ever happened before in
this country.
ERIN BURNETT: Well, we-- we-- we did it ourselves. Julian, I know that--
you're f-- you're worried about inflation. Inflation's been a big-- big concern
for-- of yours for years. But since we spoke last, we've had $2 trillion in
quantitative easing. So, what is your expectation for how bad the inflation
problem could be? I know you don't wanna say when it's gonna happen, but
how big will the problem be?
JULIAN ROBERTSON: Well, I-- I-- I can't s-- I can't say that. And-- I-- I
certainly don't know how long it's going to be before it comes into effect.
But-- and-- and-- and-- there gonna be some little mini problems that
develop as we go along here. I mean, at some point-- I think before too
much longer, the-- currency will begin to weaken considerably if we do this
quantitative easing.
ERIN BURNETT: So, where are you-- how-- how are you positioning in
advance of that? And I know you have had-- you've-- you've done a lot with
bonds, but-- but you're also doing quite-- a bit with currencies and a bit with
your view of the U.S. dollar goes down, what goes up?
JULIAN ROBERTSON: Well, that's l-- one of the things that's happened has
been that-- people in general-- seem to be perfectly willing to debase their
currencies, and there's no penalty for that. We used to have-- kind of a
governor of currencies, the Bundesbank. But-- now with the euro, there's
nothing quite that strong.
And-- so people are-- are all learning that-- if you cheapen your currency--
you get your economy booming. And they're willing to do that. I don't-- I
don't-- I don't know when the-- or-- what the effect of the world wide
cheapening of currencies will be. But-- it-- it probably comes back that
people will want-- to own things-- other than-- fixed income instruments
and-- probably-- in currencies. People will prefer owning commodities and--
gold-- for those things.
ERIN BURNETT: Let's talk about gold, Julian. I know you-- you have not been
a believer, but times have changed.
ERIN BURNETT: And he-- but-- but he's doing something different. I mean, a
lot of Americans, there's advertisements now, right, buy gold bars. And-- and
a lot of people are doing it. But-- but he's actually not doing that, he's doing
something different.
JULIAN ROBERTSON: He-- he-- he is buying the companies rather than the--
commodity.
JULIAN ROBERTSON: That's right. The miners rather than the commodities.
ERIN BURNETT: Did you ever think you'd be sitting here saying, "I'm an
investor in gold," Julian?
ERIN BURNETT: Let-- let's talk about your-- your stock plays. And Julian, you
did really well. You know every year you and I do this, and we track 'em. So
you've been-- you've been in Apple, and Apple has done extremely well. In
fact, if Apple were in the Dow, we'd be getting back to those-- those all-time
highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Okay, what do you think of
Apple right now?
And that was true of all sorts of companies, not just electronics, but for
instance-- Avon products-- sold in the '50s. And-- Polaroid, no longer
existent-- way back there was in the-- in the '50s. And-- there's no reason
why Apple-- can't get a multi-- multiple in the 25 to 30 range, which would
be a pretty big appreciation for it-- over the next-- 12 months.
ERIN BURNETT: All right, so you're-- you like it then, but big picture, you've
got some worries, because, well, everybody knows Apple's a hot stock. I
mean, it's sort of become, I'm gonna be honest, it's kind of like a cult these
days, Julian.
JULIAN ROBERTSON: Well that's right. But the-- the-- the-- the-- the one
thing I've learned is that-- th-- that don't be frightened of a stock that's been
going up. And Apple is so expensive, that de-- that despite the fact that
people keep pouring into it-- it doesn't go up wildly. And-- I mean-- 18 or 20
times earnings for maybe the greatest company in the world is, I don't think-
- at all high.
ERIN BURNETT: Tell me what you mean, how much money you're gonna get
for America.
JULIAN ROBERTSON: Well-- I-- I think the-- the-- the fight against fat is
symptomatic of politicians in America. This is an easy problem to solve. We
just tax fat, and we tax-- sugar. And then-- then-- then we really fight
obesity. By the way-- in 1991-- we had five states wer-- which had in excess
of-- 15 percent obesity. Now-- we have, well in-- in-- in 2002-- by that time,
all the states were obese.
JULIAN ROBERTSON: --the last one. And-- now, loads of states are 25 to 35
percent obese. It's an epidemic, and it's getting worse by the minute. It's
like-- the plague was. And-- we're doing nothing about it. We're scared of the
big-- food companies. We're scared of this, that, then the other. But we
weren't scared of the big liquor companies, and we weren't scared of the big
t-- cigarette companies. And we save millions of lives by acting. And-- we
should act on this too.
JULIAN ROBERTSON: Well, the Milken Institute, which I have gotten most of
these statistics from estimates that it might be as much as a trillion dollars
improvement of GDP. And that comes from so many different sources-- really
of course the taxes-- on the particular fats and-- sugars would-- bring in
further-- revenues for the government.
But-- they estimate that-- taking obesity back to the 1991 level, which was
st-- we were still pretty fat then-- that-- that we would save-- something--
that-- that the GDP would be improved by a trillion dollars, just to get it
down to that level.
JULIAN ROBERTSON: I-- I would love to be the obesity czar. I mean, I-- I
think it would be a fantastic job. I think-- I don't know of a more important
one in the United States and one that's simplistic enough to solve.
ERIN BURNETT:You have a business here that has become known for so
many names of successful hedge fund managers, people that began with
you-- seeded with-- with Tiger money, who have now gone out and become
some of the most famous people in the industry. You're in the business of
seeding, as you call it. And a lotta people wanna know whether some day
soon pension funds, big investors, wealthy individuals are gonna get to come
in along side you.
JULIAN ROBERTSON: We-- we-- I-- there-- there-- they can join our funds
now. And-- and many of 'em have and I hope more will in the future. And--
we'd be delighted to have them. We have been-- extremely pleased with our
funds. Our largest fund-- was-- up-- some-- 26 percent-- between-- in the
last 12 months, which I think is pretty good performance. And-- seven of our
13 new funds were up between-- seven and 13 percent-- which is an
excellent performance. So this was just so far this year. So we really think
we've got a lotta wonderful seeds and-- we would love to show them to
anyone interested.
ERIN BURNETT: What about a fund that was invested in all of those funds--
JULIAN ROBERTSON: Oh, I'm for the estate tax for sure. I think-- that-- and
I'm-- all my friends criticize me for this, but I think-- of all the taxes-- except
the obesity tax, that's about as good a way to tax-- as you can get. I mean,
it's not gonna cause any-- harm to the economy. And-- I think it's--
ridiculous for big fortunes and people who have been fortunate enough to
grow up in our economy and-- amass great wealth-- not to pay back some of
it to the-- to the country which gave it to them.
ERIN BURNETT: And your for an estate tax, but you've also chosen to make
your own decisions about where you're giving your money away, going along
with-- Warren Buffett's hope in giving almost all of your-- your money away
before it would ever even get touched by-- touched by that tax.
JULIAN ROBERTSON: I-- I-- I-- I think we have a good-- a good-- staff here
that-- is able to find really good places to invest that money. And yes, I do
feel that we can do it better than the government can do it. And-- I intend to
do that as-- as-- as-- as much as I can. And-- I-- I'm-- I've been doing that
for some time.
ERIN BURNETT: One final question. You found the next Bill Gates?
JULIAN ROBERTSON: Oh I don't-- don't-- I-- I-- I have-- I think-- Bill Gates
is the greatest-- American of-- the century. And-- I'm very hopeful that Mark
Zuckerberg will be a worthy model of Bill Gates. And I would say that at this
age in time-- he is going at it in a very good way. And-- I think it gives us all
hope to see somebody like Mark Zuckerberg who goes into a place like--
Newark and-- gives 'em 100 million bucks and-- says, "Look, I want this to
be a model for-- America and the world." And-- I think-- I think he's-- quite
a kid.
ERIN BURNETT: And how-- I know you think he's quite a kid, what about--
what about his business? I Know that one of your funds has been an investor
in Facebook.
ERIN BURNETT: I don't-- I know you have an iPad, I don't think you have a
Facebook page, Julian, I was just making sure--
JULIAN ROBERTSON: I-- I--
JULIAN ROBERTSON: Well, I mean, I wouldn't tell you if I did. But the--
JULIAN ROBERTSON: The-- the-- the f-- the-- look, I am look-- trying hard
to-- get rid of my-- reputation which is very just for being-- a mental dwarf
when it comes to-- technology. And-- but-- so I'm really not up on Facebook.
And-- but I-- I-- I-- I-- I know-- people that are pretty knowledgeable about
this area, and they're darn sold on it.