Investigation of Reservoir Production Performance Using

Decline Curve Analysis

Dr. Khulud Mustafa Rahuma
Pertroleum Engineering Department
Tripoli University
Abstract:
DCA (Decline Curve Analysis) is a technique that can be applied to
whole reservoir, cumulative company production, or even on national level.
DCA aims at estimating reservoir production performance at different
points in time based on the actual documented production history long
senlen le break it in to two helps in developing distribution of oil
production rate in wells, forecasting future production rate, estimating
remaining reserve, and predicting total reserve.
In this study, the actual oil rate technique is incorporated with the
D.C.A program, F.A.S.T.RTA TM software, Ecrin software, and screening
data points to calculate remaining and recoverable reserves. The remaining
reserve depends on the production data points that are selected and believed

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reflecting the true well/reservoir behavior. informal, some data points

should be excluded because of their no-representative of the actual
behavior of the well/reservoir. If kept, these points would lead to a wrong
behavioral trend. Human error, gauge failure, production cut/increase due
to political/market motivation, etc. might be responsible for such non-
representative behavior. This approach is implemented by analyzing
production trend for separated number of segments. Production data points
for each interval are evaluated to diagnose its effect on the remaining
reserves.
Key Words: Decline curve, initial rate, remaining reserve, software,
scenario.

Introduction:
Decline Curve Analysis are traditionally used to provide
deterministic estimates for future performance and remaining reserves.
However, this method usually involves some manipulation of the data, such
as adjusting scales with type curves, some introduce bias into the data
previous to the prediction, such as graphically choosing one or two
parameters to represent trends of varying data.(1)
Using an efficient curve-fitting equation, a general hyperbolic curve
can fit to the raw monthly oil production data. A continuation of this
hyperbolic curve beyond the period of known production gives a prediction
based only on the production values and not on any interpretation by the
evaluation.
The most popular decline curve is that which represents the decline
in the oil or gas production rate with time (rate/time plot), Another
common technique is the plot of production rates versus cumulative oil or

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Investigation Of Reservoir Production Performance Using Decline Curve Analysis ‫ـــــ‬

cumulative gas production, normally termed (rate-cumulative plots).

Naturally, oil production rate will decline with the production time
increase, as long as there is no pressure support.
If oil rate of a producing well/reservoir drops to the economic limit,
it will be called for shut-off. The two basic problems in appraisal work are
the determination of most probable life span of wells and estimation of its
future production. Sometimes these vital parameters can be calculated by
volumetric method if sufficient reliable data is available. In those cases, the
possibility of extrapolating the trends of some variable characteristics of
such producing well(s)/reservoir(s) may be of considerable help.
Traditionally, rate/time or rate/cumulative plots are used to obtain
main decisive parameters required to understand futuristic behaviours of
well(s)/reservoir(s). The extrapolated trend intersects with the predefined
economic flow rate dictates the time of the economic limit. The basic of
such an estimate is the assumption that history controls the future
performance. This assumption puts the extrapolation method on a strictly
empirical basis and it must be realized that this may make the results
sometimes inferior to the more reliable volumetric methods. (2)
Estimating oil reserves is one of the most important factors that
decide the fate of any petroleum venture. Operating cost plays a major role
as well.(3) The production decline observed should truly reflect reservoir
productivity and none natural causes, such as a change in production
conditions well damage, production controls, and equipment failure should
be overlooked.
Stable reservoir condition must also prevail in order to extrapolate
decline curves with a reasonable degree of reliability. This condition will
normally be met as long as the producing mechanism is not altered.

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However, when action is taken to improve oil/gas recovery, such as

infill drilling, fluid injection, stimulation, decline curve analysis can be
used to estimate the performance of the well/reservoir taking in
consideration such imposed changes and their effects on disturbing the
natural behavior.(4)
The objective of this study is to predict the main economic
well/reservoir parameters under all these complexities.

Software Packages Used:

In this study, new software packages used to analyze production
decline curve namely Ecrin software (Topaze), F.A.S.T.RTA TM software,
and Decline Curve Analysis (D.C.A) program.
Ecrin software is the software environment under which all the
KAPPA (petroleum engineering software company) dynamic data analysis
modules operate.
F.A.S.T.RTA software is the another practical toolkit from Fekete.
Decline Curve Analysis is a Program was designed by visual basic
languages, and connected with Excel Worksheet using the least of sum of
error squares.
These packages used collectively and systematically to produce best
results. Following sections describe steps to implement the proposed
approach.

Preparing Data for Software:

Relation of actual flow rate versus time drew in excel sheet with
selected appropriate production period to be used for the analysis figure 1.

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Investigation Of Reservoir Production Performance Using Decline Curve Analysis ‫ـــــ‬

1400
Actual oil flow rate 1200
bbl/day 1000
800
600
400
200
0
1973 1979 1984 1990 1995 2001 2006 2012 2017
Time,years

production history selected period

Figure (1) production history with selected period

Transfer selected period to another sheet input flow rate vs.
production time (production period) by inserting/ date in cell A1 and flow
rate in cell B1.

Figure (2) prepared data in excel sheet

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Ecrin Software:
Ecrin provides a complete interconnectivity between the modules
and allows the sharing of common technical objects. This seamless
workflow saves time, repetition and frustration. All objects such as PVT
data are available to all modules, at any time, by drag/drop.
Ecrin, is the industry standard for the analysis of dynamic data, that
includes modules for Pressure Transient Analysis (Saphir), Production
Analysis (Topaze) and a full field numerical model for History Matching
(Rubis). Topaze was the first developed in response to Production Analysis
(PA) evolving from empirical methods to methodology more closely
aligned to modern transient analysis.

2. F.A.S.T.RTA TM Software:
F.A.S.T.RTA is another practical toolkit from Fekete that enables you
to conduct advanced decline analysis on both production and flowing
pressure data at the same time. It allows determination of expected ultimate
recovery. F.A.S.T.RTA TM can be used in both oil and gas reservoirs.

Discussion and Results:

In this study actual field data were used to calculate the remaining reserves
of the field. The economic limit flow rate that used for calculation is (qe
=60 bbl /day) as determined by the operating company of this field based
on their economic assessment.

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Decline Curve Analysis for Wells:

The remaining reserve calculation becomes more reliable whenever
data points are well screened as shown in figure (3) of well1. Figure (4)
represents the results of the analyses. As well as tables (1 and 2) represent
the results of the analysis incorporated with wells 1,2,3, and4. Table 1
includes results of wells using Hand Calculation and D.C.A. Program,
while table 2 shows the results of wells using Ecrin and Fekete Softwares.

Figure(3) Well1 Screening method

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50600

50500

50400
Sum of error square

50300

50200

50100

50000

49900

49800
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
b FACTOR

Figure ( 4) Well1( Sum of error square vs b factor )

Table (1) results of wells using Hand Calculation and D.C.A. Program
Cut-off Criteria:15 bbl/day
Correlated period: from
31/30/1999 .to : 3/31/2011
Hand Calculation D.C.A program
Well 1 Well 2 Well 3 Well 4 Well 1 Well 2 Well 3 Well 4
Decline Exponent 0 0 0.4 0.4 0 0 0.4 0.4
Decline Factor 0.00638 0.006377
0.00456 0.011519 0.013532 0.005507 0.01151 0.01353
(1/month)
Initial Decline Rate 238 238
138 228 342 138 228 343
(bbl/day)
Economic Recoverable 506,104 506,291
568,884 504,415 505,385 564,458 504,842 505,411
Reserves (bbl)
Abandonment Time 36.118 33.61 36.131
33.831 38.44 38.44 35.679 38.446
(years)

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Table (2) results of wells using Ecrin and Fekete Softwares

Cut-off Criteria:15
bbl/day
Ecrin software Fekete software
Correlated period: from
31/30/1999 .to : 3/31/2011
Well 1 Well 2 Well 3 Well 4 Well 1 Well 2 Well 3 Well 4
Decline Exponent 0 0 0.383 0.4 0 0 0.4 0.4
Decline Factor
0.005301 0.00629 0.01341 0.013401 0.005631 0.006431 0.011431 0.013421
(1/month)
Initial Decline Rate
137 237 261 345 139 240 230 347
(bbl/day)
Economic Recoverable
565,433 506,090 520,560 506,930 569,358 508,704 509,579 507,889
Reserves (bbl)
Abandonment Time
33.71 36.017 40 38.723 34 37.2 39.34 39.05
(years)

Decline Curve Analysis for the Whole Field:

The decline type of the reservoir is a hyperbolic b= 0.2. Figures (5)
and (6) represent the results of the analyses from table (3). Comparing
remaining reserve of the whole field with sum of the wells indicates
303,599 bbls for the whole field and 2,084,788 bbls from the sum of the
wells. There is a large difference (1,781,189 bbls) of reserve estimate
between the two approaches. Reserve discrepancy maybe due to the fact
that some of the wells were shut-in at the time of reserves calculations.
Therefore, it is necessary to adopt the approach of well by well method
during calculation of DCA. Initial operating company estimate of the
reserve for this field is 95 MMbbls. Cumulative oil production until
31/3/2011 is given at 92 MMbbls. There are a lot of shut-in periods because
of several workover and ESP maintenance and replacement jobs during this
period.

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Figure ( 5 ) Field Screening method

654000

652000

650000
Sum of error square

648000

646000

644000

642000

640000

638000
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
b Factor

Figure ( 6) Field ( sum of error square vs b factor)

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Table (3) results of field using different methods

Decline Initial Economic
Decline Abandonmen
Solution Factor Decline Rate Recoverable
Exponent (b) t Time(years)
(1/Month) (bbl/day) Reserves (bbl)
Hand calculation 0.2 0.01101 600 303,599 21.185
Ecrin software 0.2 0.012401 600 304,816 21.997
Fekete software 0.2 0.012431 598 300,084 20.106
D.C.A 0.2 0.011007 600 303,714 21.197

Conclusion:
The multi-software package approach used for analyzing DCA
proven efficient and much better than the traditional analyses. Decline rate
factor (b) is equal to 0.2 indicates a combination of reservoir drive
mechanisms. Disagreement between well-to-well and whole field
approaches indicates a large distance between producers and injectors.
DCA Analyses implementing D.C.A program, F.A.S.T.RTA TM software
and Ecrin softwares are more reliable and time saving as compared to
traditional methods. The recoverable reserves estimate seems irrecoverable
utilizing the existing wells due to shut-in time for workover and
maintaining ESP. It is recommended to conduct a routine workover
program for both producers and injectors. In-fill drilling program also is
very well recommended. These measures will contribute in maximizing
recovery to achieve the target recoverable reserves. Optimization of water
injection can help in maintaining effective pressure support. A
comprehensive (whole field) DCA should be performed regularly. This
helps evaluating recovery techniques influence on producing the remaining
reserves.

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Nomenclature:
ai = nominal decline rate
b = reservoir factor
Bg = gas formation volume factor
Q = oil production rate at time t
qcal = calculated flow rate
qe = economic oil production rate
qi = initial oil production rate
Rp = cumulative gas-oil ratio
Rsi = initial solution gas-oil ratio
Swi = initial water saturation
t = time

Acknowledgments:
The autho would like to express her appreciation and gratitude to the
NOC (National Oil Corporation) and affiliate companies for providing data
used in this study.

References:
1. Folkert Brons, "On the Use and Misuse of Production Decline
curve," API paper 801-39E (1963).
2. J.J.Arps, "Analysis of Decline Curves," Trans., AIME (1944).
3. Cutler, W.W. , Jr: '' Estimation of underground oil reserves by well
production curves. '' USBM Bull, 228 (1924).

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4. Barry K. Vansandt et al. “Gaudiness for application definitions for

oil and gas reserves" Dec. 1988.
5. John, M. Campbell:" Oil property Evaluation ". prentice hall, Inc.,
Englewood cliffs, New Jersey. (1959).
6. Brons, 1980.

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