Chapter One: Background To The Project Management Tools and Techniques
Chapter One: Background To The Project Management Tools and Techniques
Project Management
A project is an endeavor usually a venture with coordinated set of unique non repetitive and
temporary activities undertaken to create a unique product service for target beneficiaries within
the constraints of schedule, budget, quality and scopes.
Project management can be defined as the application of knowledge, skills, tools and techniques
to project activities to meet project performance objectives of cost (budget), scope, quality and
schedule (time) requirements (PMBOK 2008). Project management is accomplished through
managerial processes of planning, organizing, controlling, leading and motivating human
resource to identify resources requirements, establishing clear and achievable objectives,
balancing the competing demands for quality, scope, time, cost and scope and adapting the
specifications, plans, and approach to the different concerns and expectations of the various
stakeholders to generate outputs (deliverables).
During project life cycle management, project manager focuses attention on four basic
parameters cost (budget, time (schedule), quality (specification) and scope (deliverables) also
known as project performance objectives. The project performance parameters form four basis
for project monitoring, evaluation, control and reporting.
ü Temporary-Means that every project has a definite beginning and a definite end.
The end is reached when the project objectives has been reached, or it becomes
clear that the project objectives will not or cannot be met, or the need for the
project is no longer exists and the project is terminated.
ü Unique products, process, services, or results-A project creates a unique
deliverables, which are product, process, services, or results a project can create
ü Progressive Elaborations-inputs-output relationship-Is a characteristic of
projects that accompanies the concepts of temporary uniqueness? Progressive
elaboration means developing in steps, and continuing by increments.
ü Target beneficiaries-Are the people to benefit from the project product, process,
services or results.
ü Defined objectives (tetrahedron)-Project is a unique venture undertaken under
the defined objectives of time, cost, quality and scope.A successful project is the
one that does not have cost, time, scope overrun, or sub quality.
ü Project life cycle management-The systematic process of initiating, planning,
implementing, managing and evaluation project or programmes is known as
‘Project Cycle Manager’, (PMC).It is also defined as an approach in project
management used to guide management activities and decision making
procedures during the life-cycle of a project, from the first idea until the last ex-
post (afterwards) evaluation. PCM involves regulating and supervising the various
activities undertaken in each phase of the project cycle to ensure the projects are;
1 Relevant to beneficiaries.
2. Supportive of the policies of the sponsor; e.g. GoK and other donor
partners.
3. Feasible and effective.
ü Distinct unique and interrelated activities defines a project-Project is said
to be a set of unique and coordinated activities. This means that this activities
must be interrelated such that project may be viewed as a system just like
living thing body system that comprises of different parts functioning together.
1. CATEGORY
v Large projects
v Small projects
v Medium projects
v Micro projects etc
2. NATURE
v Civil/engineering projects
v Manufacturing projects
v Extractive projects
v Management process projects
v Research projects
v Social projects
v Business projects
3. SECTORS
v Social projects
v Agricultural project
v Health projects
v Education projects
4. OWNERSHIP
v Government project
v Private projects
v International projects
v Community projects
v Non-governmental projects etc
5. PURPOSE
v Income generating
v Civil and construction projects
v Mine, extraction and quarrying projects
v Manufacturing projects
v Research projects
v New product development project
v Awareness creation
v Environmental conservation
v Restructuring project
v Management process project etc
-These are goods, services, or process to be delivered by the project given some inputs and
assumptions by the end of the project implementation period.
-Project management involves utilization of the resources (inputs) provided with the constraints
of time, cost, quality and scope. Inputs are resources available for project implementation. They
include money, equipments, technology, and human resources are goods, services, or process
used as requirements in order to give the outputs will be expected.
In any project, the following inputs are utilized in order to give the desired outputs;
• Equipments
• Information
• Human resource
• Materials
• Finance
Like any other discipline, project management is guided by certain principles. Some of the
principles include;
• Templates often come from formally executed projects by clearing their elaborated
structured documents (like activity list) or may be given as an organizational assets
(like typical schedule milestones)
• Rolling wave planning is a form of progressive elaboration. What has to be done in
the near future and what is already clear is planned in detail at a low level of the
WBS. But what can be realized later and what is still more or less unclear is
unplanned for WBS components that are at a relatively high levels of the WBS.
• Expert judgments are used for answering the question which tasks have to be done
for realizing a specific work package.
• Planning component is a concept by which insufficient or irrelevant definitions of
information are made usable; the control account is a specific high level point in the
WBS (above the work packages).
a. Activity list-This is a comprehensive list including all schedule activities that are
planned to be performed on the project. And it does not contain any activity which is
not necessary for realizing the project scope.
b. Defining activity attributes-These are detailed specification of the activities; you
may think the activity list as a list of naming identifies. And the meaning of each of
these naming identifiers is the description of the connected attributes likes
predecessors, successors, durance, leads and lags and so on.
c. Milestone list -This contains all mandatory milestone (required by the contract) and
output milestones (based upon project requirements or historical information). The
milestone list is part of the project management plan and its content is used in the
schedule model.
d. Requested changes-These may appear during the decomposition of work packages
into sets of activities.
PROJECT BUDGET
Cost budgeting is the process for aggregating the estimated costs of individual activities of work
packages to establish cost baseline for measuring project performance by aggregating the
estimated costs of individual scheduled activities or work packages.
1. Cost aggregation is the accumulation of single cost following the structure of the WBS.
2. Reserve analysis is the reasonable expansion of the costs by management contingency
reserves for being able to handle unknown unknowns; manage contingency reserves are
budgets reserved for unplanned.
3. Parametric estimating computes the cost by a formula which operates on more or less
unsure values of smaller (WBS) units.
4. Funding limit reconciliation is the act of comparing and adjusting the funding limits
and the estimated costs by refining the scope, rescheduling the activities and so on.
5. The cost baseline which becomes a component of the project management.
6. The project funding requirements are planned limitations being derived from the cost
baseline.
7. Updates of the cost management plan become necessary if the real work evokes
changes of the rules how to manage the costs.
8. Requested changes may be evoked for example by the funding limit reconciliation.
Importance of outputs
1. The cost baseline which becomes a component of the project management plan is a time-
phased budget that is used as a basis against which to measure, monitor and control.
2. The project funding requirements are planned limitations being derived from the cost
baseline.
3. Updates of the cost management plan become necessary if the real work evokes changes
of the rules how to manage the costs.
4. Requesting changes may be evoked for example by the funding limit reconciliation.
Cost control is the process for influencing the factors that create cost variances and controlling
changes to the project budget. Like other controlling processes the process of project control
therefore includes such tasks as handling influences factors, managing actual changes, detecting
wished and unwished changes by comparing the reported real values with the approved cost base
line and determining corrective actions.
• Cost change control system is the set of procedures and rules by which changes of the
cost baseline can methodically be introduced into the project.
• Performance measurement analysis is a method of comparing the reported reality and the
(pre) defined cost baseline. For being able to do so, one usually used earned value
techniques:
a. Planned value is the budgeted cost for the work scheduled to be completed on an activity
or WBS component up to a given point of time. If an activity should totally cost x and the
work grows linearly over the planned time than the PV for the half of the working time is
50% of X)
b. Earned value (EV) is the budgeted amount of the work actually completed on the
schedule activity or WBS component during a given period of time.
• Forecasting uses techniques for determining new cost values on the basis of the made
experiences during the project. Especially if one has a CPI indicating a cost overrun of
the estimates one might ask what the results will be if this observation will be taken as
base for the future. Here one uses the following concepts;
o Estimate to compete (ETC) are necessary costs to complete the activity WBS units.
Estimate at completion (EAC) computes the newly estimated total costs by adding
the actually already spent costs and newly estimated costs to complete
PROJECT IDENTIFICATION
Need; problem and trend pattern (NPT) model is one of the suggested models for project
identification. The concept here is that the project may be developed from a need, a problem or
an emerging trend in the social economy.
All projects have one common characteristic- the projection of ideas and activities into new
endeavors.
The NPT model enables project practitioners to identify projects from three sources;
a. Needs (N)
b. Problems (P)
c. Trends of patterns (T)
Needs approach
The need for investment in a project, however, generally arises from one of three sources;
a. Market demand
• This includes the development of new products.
• Seizing opportunities to increase markets share of current products.
• Truing to retain current business.
• Change of customer preferences
b. Government or company mandate
• Health
• Safety
• Environmental concerns
• Project management as a strategy
c. Cost reduction strategies
All projects are geared towards solving a problem or taking of opportunities. Therefore in
identifying projects one can start by reviewing problems. Problems definitely would resolve
around the following areas.
ü Social issues
ü Economic
ü Political
ü Legal
ü Technological; etc
ü
Trend approach
• Population
• Economic
• Educational
• Health
• Technology
e.
Project design involves determination of project goal, objective, outputs, activities performance
and verifiable indicators and assumptions. The project design document is prepared by the
feasibility study.
• What to be done?
• Why to be done
Project logical models are commonly adopted in project design where a matrix can be used. In
log frame matrix, one is able to see the relationship between the objectives, inputs, outputs,
indicators and assumption.
Logical Framework
This table is just a guideline and one can add details as dictated by specific project
2. Goal
These are long term objectives sought by the project. They are usually program, sectoral,
subsector, objectives, they provide the umbrella logic and rationale of the project and are not
specific because they are influenced by many factors and are achieved over along period of time
and other project elsewhere contribute towards it.
3. Objective
This definition implies that an objective must be SMART.
4. Project purpose
• This is an immediate objective of the project. It is an anchor of the project design because
in indicates the level of achievement that the objective must deliver.
• It is the starting point of the project design since project inception begins with a purpose.
• The project purpose defines the project immediate impact on the beneficiaries and
institutional functioning.
5. Outputs
There are goals, services or process to be delivered by the project gives some inputs and
assumptions by the end of the project implementation period. Output must provide conditions
necessary to achieve the immediate project objectives.
a. Equipments
b. Software
c. Training of staff
d. Civil work
e. Consultants
f. Salaries
g. Project management etc
7. Assumptions
They are hypothesis for the project success. These are factors which are outside the control of the
project but are which nevertheless influences the cause effect relationships integral to project
design. Assumptions are applies to all level of design summary e.g. assuming staff is competent
weather will be favorable etc.
• Market conditions/price.
• Macroeconomic policies e.g. fiscal policies and monetary
• Political and social conditions
• Sector policy and conditions
• Environmental conditions
• Private sector capability
• Government administrative capability
• Community and other development support partners
• Donors and other funding agencies etc
8. Verifiable performance indicators/performance targets
These are measures to establish the accomplishment of inputs, outputs, purpose and goals of
the project. They indicate in specific and tangible terms the performance to be achieved at
each level in project design.
• VPI clarifies the minimum achievement requirements for inputs to cause the outputs
and for the outputs to cause the envisaged impacts.
• VPI measures results not just a process in the following dimension
a. Expected quality
b. Expected quantity
c. Time period
d. Location
An effective indicator must meet the above condition i.e. quantity, quality, time and location
criteria (QQTL)
Steps in project logical model design (project logical framework) in project design
Project logical framework is a tool used for design, planning and monitoring of project
implementation.
Step2: Define the purpose to be achieved by the project-One should normally have only one
purpose in a project.
Step4: Define the activities for achieving each output-Remember that project management
involves carrying out certain activities. You must include these activities in your logical
framework. Provide a summary schedule of periodic meetings, monitoring events and
evaluations.
Step5: verify the Vertical Logic with the If/Then Test-In a well planned logical framework, at
the lowest levels on the logical framework you can say that if certain activities are carried out
you can expect certain outputs to result. There should be some logical relationship between the
outputs and the purpose, and between the purpose and the Goal.
The assumptions describe important natural conditions such as 20cm of rain falling between May
and October. There may be human factors such as no labor strikes during start up of project,
timely release of the budget, farmers wiling to try new methods, such as crop prices remaining
stable. The narrative summary describes the IF/THEN logic is that the necessary conditions
linking each level.
These are hypothesis for the project success. These are factors which are out of the control of the
project but which nevertheless influences the cause effect relationships integral to project design.
Assumptions are external conditions over which the project chooses not to exert or does not have
control but on which the accomplishment of objectives depends.
o Do nothing if the assumptions are not serious enough to threaten the project.
o Change the project design when the assumptions are too busy.
o Add new project to minimize the effects of risk especially when dealing with
environmental risks.
o Abandon the project when risk is too great that one can not bear.
Step7: Define the Objectively Verifiable Indicator (OVI) at Goal then Purpose then Output
then Activity levels
The OVI tell us not only what accomplishment is necessary, but also what will be sufficient
performance to assure that we can reach the next level of objective.
Indicators are measured in terms of quality, quantity and time (and sometimes place and cost).
Putting numbers and dates on indicators is called targeting.
The fewer the better. Use only the number of indicator s required to clarify what must be
accomplished.
Begin with the basic indicator. Make sure it is numerically quantifiable and then add the quality
and then the time dimensions.
(Quantity+quality+time=QQT)
As an example
Rice yields 9of same quality as 1997 crop) of small scale farmers (owing 3 hectares or less)
increased by X bushels
Rice yields (of same quality as 1997 crop) of small scale farmers (owing 3 hectares or less)
increasedby X bushels by the end of 1998 harvest.
Category of indicators
Often describe program or sector objectives to which this project and several others are directed.
For this reason, the Goal level Indicators may include targets beyond the scope of this project,
such as small farmer income increased where farmer income may be increased by the combined
outcomes of several projects.
2. Purpose Level Indicators-The project purpose is the one many reasons why you are
doing the project. It is why you are producing outputs.
3. Output Level Indicators-By definition, these indicators establish the terms of reference
for the project if a project team or contractor is responsible for all the outputs then these
indicators define the deliverables for which the contractor is accountable.
4. Activity Level Indicators-The OVI at the Activity Level are usually inputs or the
budget. Often this will look like a performance budget, since costs can be related directly
to activities.
Step8: Define the means of Verification (MoV)-When defining means of verification, the rule
is that the indicators you choose for measuring your objectives must be verifiable by some
means. If they are not, you must find another indicator.
Step9: Prepare the performance Budget-You have already seen that the OVIs at the activity
level are usually the inputs or the budget. Now you need to prepare the full performance budget.
Relate the costs directly to the activities. You may need to use a set of standard categories to
meet the requirements of the urgency you are working for.
Step10:check the logical Framework using the project design checklist-Work through the
project design checklist as an aid to ensuring that the project meets all the requirements of a well
designed logical framework. It may be helpful to print your logical framework before reviewing
the project with the checklist.
Step11: Review the logical Framework Design in the light of previous experience-You
should have been thinking about the previous experience of projects throughout the preparation.
• Economic situation
• Social situation
• Political or organizational situation
Step2: Develop a vision for how you would like the problem areas to look-This is the
statement of one’s dream about the future when the intervention takes place. Under this activity
you determine what will tell you that the vision has been achieved? What sense will you see that
you can measure that will prove (that the vision has been achieved?) for example, if your vision
was that the people in your community would be healthy then you can use healthy indicators to
measure how well you are doing. Has the infant mortality rate gone down? Do fewer women die
during child birth? Has the HIV/AIDS infection rate been reduced? If you can answer (yes) to
these questions, progress is being made.
Step3: Develop a process vision for how you want things to be achieved-This will give you
process indicators. If for example you want success to be achieved through community efforts
and participation then, your process vision might include things like community health workers
from the community trained and offering a competent services used by all communities
organizes clean up events on a regular basis and so on.
For example if you believe that you can increase the secondary school pass rate by upgrading
teachers, then you need indicators that show you have been effective in upgrading the teachers
e.g. evidence from survey in the schools, compared with a baseline survey.
Here you can set indicators such as planned workshop are run within the stated time frame, cost
for workshop are kept to a maximum of USS2.50 per participants no more than 160 hours in total
if staff time to be spent on organizing a conference.
1. It brings together in one place a statement of all key components of the project or
program..
2. It can help to ensure that fundamental questions are asked and weaknesses are analyzed
in order to provide decision makers with better and more relevant information.
3. It is easy to learn and use..
4. It does not add time or effort to project management but reduces it.
1. It is not a substitute for other technical, economical, social and environmental analysis. It
cannot replace the use of professionally qualified and experienced staff.
2. Rigidity in project management may arise when objectives and external factors
specialized during design are over emphasized.
3. It requires a team process with good leadership and facilitation skills to be most effective.
1. The process requires strong facilitation skills to ensure real participation by appropriate
stakeholders. Creating project work breakdown structure-The work breakdown
structure (WBS) is a deliverable oriented hierarchical decomposition of the work to
be executed by the project team to accomplish the project objectives and create the
required deliverables.
The WBS is the tool for breaking down a project into its component parts. It is the
foundation of project planning and communication and if done well, can become the secret
to successful project management.The WBS identifies all the tasks in a project.The WBS is
sometimes referred to as simply as a task list.
Importance of WBS
The work breakdown structure acts as a vehicle for breaking the work down into similar
elements thus providing a great probability that every major and minor activity will be
accounted for. Although a variety of work breakdown structure exists. The most common is
the six-level intended structure shown below.
Tasks
b. Work package
• Clearly distinguishes one work packages from all others assigned to a single
functional group.
• Contains clearly defined start and end dates that are representative of the physical
accomplishment
• Specifications a budget in terms of money, man-hours or any other measurable
units.
• Limits the work to be done or performed to relatively short period of time to
minimize the work in process effort.
When deciding how specific and detailed to make your work packages, there is temptation
of getting too much details.
There is the temptation of including the project specific list of activities. The WBS should
contain a list of broken deliverables. In other words, the customers will get when the project
is complete.
Many planners get tempted to treat a WBS as a plan or schedule whereas it is just a
visual breakdown of deliverables. The WBS cannot be used as a replacement for the
period plan or schedule. A WBS is not required to be created in any type of order or
sequence.
PROJECT SCHEDULING
This phase is primarily concerned with attaching a timescale and sequence to the activities to be
conducted within the project. Materials and people needed at each stage of the project are
determined and the time each is to take will be set.
A popular and easy to use technique for scheduling is the use of Gantt charts. Gantt charts reflect
time estimates and can be easily understood. Horizontal bars are drawn against a time scale for
each project activity, the length of which represent the time taken to complete. Letters or symbols
can also be added to the left of each bar to show which other activities need to be completed
before that one can begin.
Gantt Charts
A Gantt Chart is a simple technique that can be used to attach a time scale and sequence to a
project.
A Gantt Chart is a form of horizontal bar chart and horizontal bars are drawn against a time
scale for each project activity, the length of which represents the time taken to complete. To
construct a Gantt Chart the following steps are necessary:
It is possible to enhance the Gantt Chart in several ways. For instance the number of staff
required to do a task can be entered into the bar on the diagram.
Gantt charts, also commonly known as milestone plans, are a low cost means of assisting the
project manager at the initial stages of scheduling. They ensure that:
They are therefore a simple, rough and ready means of planning a project and assessing progress
and are sufficient for most simple projects.
However, where projects become complex, it becomes difficult to see relationships between
activities by using a Gantt Chart. For more complex projects Network Analysis techniques are
used.
Gantt charts also provide a summary of the project as a whole and can be used as a rough and
ready means of assessing progress at the project control phase. At any date, the project manager
can draw a dateline through the Gantt chart and see which activities are on-time, which are behind
schedule and generally record project status against plan.
Gantt charts, named after Henry L. Gantt, one of the pioneers of scientific management, are a
useful means of representing a schedule of activities comprising a project and enable the
operations manager to know exactly what activities should be performed at a given time and, more
importantly, to monitor daily progress of a project so that corrective action may be taken when
necessary.
To construct a Gantt chart, the various activities are listed on a vertical axis and the horizontal
axis is used to represent time. Activity presidencies are taken into account by starting a
horizontal bar to represent the next activity at an appropriate point after its preceding activities,
i.e. those activities which must take place before the next activity can start, have taken place.
Normally this would be at the earliest time that it could start after its preceding activities had
finished.
Example:
Suppose a project comprises five activities: A,B,C,D, and E. A and B have no preceding
activities, but activity C requires that activity B must be completed before it can begin. Activity D
cannot start until both activities A and B are complete. Activity E requires activities A and C to be
completed before it can start. If the activity times are A: 9 days; B: 3 days; C: 9 days; D: 5 days;
and E: 4 days,
Solution:
The figure below indicates the form that a Gantt chart would take from the above information.
Activity A
Activity B
Activity C
Activity D
Activity E
Time
The above chart shows that activities A and B have no preceding activities and so can start right
away. Activity C requires Activity B to have been completed before it can begin. The chart is then
completed using such precedence relationships as listed in the question, with each horizontal bar
being proportional in length to the activity time that it represents.
Looking at the chart it is apparent that the project ends when activity E has been completed.
Working back in time from activity E the "steps" which are crucial or critical in order to ensure
that the project duration does not extend beyond the planned length are: E,C and B. The shortest
time in which the project could be completed from the given information is therefore 16 days. The
set of activities B,C and E which together determine the project duration are referred to as the
critical path through the chart.
Those activities forming the critical path can be highlighted on the Gantt chart to help the
operations manager to give priority to them if lack of resources mean that such decisions have to
be made.
It is important to realize though that activities not on the critical path can become so if they are
allowed to drift too far. How far could activities A and D drift before they affected the duration of
the project?
Provided the project is not too complex in its activity relationships or simply too big to be mapped
on reasonably sized graph paper, Gantt charts can be very useful tools for the project manager and
are graphically superior to the network analysis methods of CPM and PERT. They allow the
critical activities to be found, i.e. those activities which must be performed on time if the project
duration is not to increase, and any "slack" or "float" in the sequence of activities can easily be
shown.
a) Construct a Gantt chart which will provide an overview of the planned project.
b) How soon could the project be completed?
c) Which activities need to be completed on time in order to ensure that the project is completed
as soon as possible?
E B 5
F A 7
G E, F 3
Draw a Gannt chart to represent the project; determine those activities comprising the
critical path; and estimate the project duration
A - 3 6
B - 5 3
C B 2 4
D A 1 4
E A 6 5
F D 3 6
G D, E 3 3
At present you have nine staff available. Temporary staff can be hired at a rate of £100 per day.
1) Draw a Gantt Chart to show the shortest time it will take to complete the project.
2) If the project is to finish on time, how many temporary staff are required, and at what cost?
Network Analysis
The two most common and widely used project management techniques that can be classified
under the title of Network Analysis are Programme Evaluation and review Technique (PERT) and
Critical Path Method (CPM). Both were developed in the 1950's to help managers schedule,
monitor and control large and complex projects. CPM was first used in 1957 to assist in the
development and building of chemical plants within the DuPont corporation. Independently
developed, PERT was introduced in 1958 following research within the Special Projects Office of
the US Navy. It was initially used to plan and control the Polaris missile programme which
involved the coordination of thousands of contractors. The use of PERT in this case was reported
to have cut eighteen months off the overall time to completion.
5. Calculate the longest time path through the network: this is the "critical path".
Finding the critical path (step 5) is a major in controlling a project. Activities on the critical path
represent tasks which, if performed behind schedule, will delay the whole project. Managers can
derive flexibility by identifying the non-critical activities and replanning, rescheduling and
reallocating resources such as manpower and finances within identified boundaries.
PERT and CPM differ slightly in their terminology and in network construction. However their
objectives are the same and, furthermore, their project analysis techniques are very similar. The
major difference is that PERT employs three time estimates for each activity. Probabilities are
attached to each of these times which, in turn, is used for computing expected values and potential
variations for activity times. CPM, on the other hand, assumes activity times are known and fixed,
so only one time estimate is given and used for each activity. Given the similarities between
PERT and CPM, their methods will be discussed together. The student will then be able to use
either, deciding whether to employ variable (PERT) or fixed (CPM) time estimates within the
network.
PERT and CPM can help to answer the following questions for projects with thousands of
activities and events, both at the beginning of the project and once it is underway:
• What are the critical activities (i.e.: the tasks which, if delayed, will effect time for overall
completion)?
• Which activities are non-critical and can run late without delaying project completion time?
• What is the probability of the project being completed by a specific date?
• At any particular time, is the project on schedule?
• At any particular time, is the money spent equal to, less than or greater than the budgeted
amount?
• Are there enough resources left to complete the project on time?
• If the project is to be completed in a shorter time, what is the least cost means to accomplish
this and what are the cost consequences?
The objective of critical path analysis is to determine times for the following:
• ES = Earliest Start Time. This is the earliest time an activity can be started, allowing for the
fact that all preceding activities have been completed.
• LS = Latest Start Time. This is the latest time an activity can be started without delaying the
start of following activities which would put the entire project behind schedule.
• EF = Earliest Finish Time. The earliest time an activity can be finished.
• LF = Latest Finish Time. The latest time that an activity can finish for the project to remain
on schedule.
• S = Activity Slack Time. The amount of slippage in activity start or duration time which can
be tolerated without delaying the project as a whole.
If ES and LS for any activity is known, then one can calculate values for the other three times as
follows:
EF = ES + t
LF = LS + t
S = LS - ES or S = LF - EF
1. Determining the Critical Path. The critical path is the group of activities in the project that
have a slack time of zero. This path of activities is critical because a delay in any activity
along it would delay the project as a whole.
2. Calculating the total project completion time, T. This is done by adding the activity times of
those activities on the critical path.
a) Determine ES and EF values for all activities in the project: the Forward Pass through the
network.
b) Calculate LS and LF values for all activities by conducting a Backward Pass through the
network.
c) Identify the critical path which will be those activities with zero slack (i.e.: ES=LS and
EF=LF).
d) Calculate total project completion time.
The major distinguishing difference between PERT and CPM is the use of three time estimates for
each activity in the PERT technique, with CPM using only one time for each activity using CPM.
The three time estimates specified for each activity in PERT are:
The optimistic, most likely and pessimistic time estimates are used to calculate an expected
activity completion time which, because of the skewed nature of the beta distribution, is
marginally grater than the most likely time estimate. In addition, the three time estimates can be
used to calculate the variance for each activity. The formulae used are as follows:
o+4m+ p
t= 6
2
⎛ p − o ⎞
v = ⎜
⎜ 6 ⎟
⎟
⎝ ⎠
Where:
Knowing the details of a project, its network and values for its activity times (t) and their
variances (v) a complete PERT analysis can be carried out. This includes the determination of the
ES, EF, LS, LF and S for each activity as well as identifying the critical path, the project
completion time (T) and the variance (V) for the entire project.
Normally when using PERT, the expected times (t) are calculated first from the three values of
activity time estimates, and it is these values of t that are then used exactly as before in CPM. The
variance values are calculated for the various activity times and the variance of the total project
completion time (i.e. the sum of the activity expected times of those activities on the critical path)
is the sum of the variances of the activities lying on that critical path.
Probability Analysis
Once the expected completion time and variance (T and V) have been determined, the
probability that a project will be completed by a specific date can be assessed. The assumption is
usually made that the distribution of completion dates follows that of a normal distribution curve.
Consider the example where the expected completion time for a project (T) is 20 weeks and the
project variance (V) is 100. What is the probability that the project will be finished on or before
week 25?
Answer: 0.69
1. A project has the following activities, precedence relationships, and activity durations:
Answers:
c) C, D
d) 15 weeks
2. A project designed to refurbish a hospital operating theatre consists of the following activities,
with estimated times and precedence relationships shown. Using this information draw a
network diagram, determine the expected time and variance for each activity, and estimate the
probability of completing the project within sixty days.
3. An activity has these time estimates: optimistic time o = 15 weeks, most likely time m = 20
weeks, and pessimistic time p = 22 weeks.
4. A project has the following activities, precedence relationships, and time estimates in weeks:
a) Calculate the expected time or duration and the variance for each activity.
b) Construct the network diagram
c) Tabulate the values of ES,EF,LS,LF and slack for each activity
d) Identify the critical path, and the project duration.
e) What is the probability that the project will take longer than 57 weeks to complete?
5. The project detailed below has the both normal costs and "crash" costs shown. The crash time
is the shortest possible activity time given that extra resources are allocated to that activity.
Assuming that the cost per day for shortening each activity is the difference between crash costs
and normal costs, divided by the time saved, determine by how much each activity should be
shortened so as to complete the project within twenty-six days and at the minimum extra cost.
Management of Projects
Gantt charts, PERT, CPM and other scheduling techniques have proven to be valuable tools in the
management of large and complex projects. A wide variety of software packages is available for
project managers, for use on micro- or larger computers, to assist in the handling of complex
network problems. PERT and CPM, however, cannot ever purport to be able to solve all project
scheduling and management problems in service or manufacturing industries. Good management
practices, clear responsibilities for tasks, and accurate and timely reporting systems are the most
essential qualities for successful project completions. The watchword is that useful as these
techniques are, they are only tools to assist the manager in making better, more calculated
decisions in the process of conducting large scale projects.