Trend following using Price Action

STEP 01: Determine the TREND

Determine if there is a MEANINGFUL TREND present, there are two types.
The meaningful ones:
 Downtrend = lower highs, lower lows
 Uptrend = higher highs, higher lows
The ones you should ignore because they require greater skill to consistently
profit from or simply,
The sideway ones:
 Congestion/Indecision = higher lows, lower highs (Symmetric Triangle
formations)
 Consolidation = horizontal lows/highs
Again, as you get more experienced you can profit off symmetric triangles (HL
LH) because they tend to give birth to POWERFUL new trends but for now we
would rather you stick to the meaningful trends.
STEP 2: PLAY IT
ONCE A TREND HAS BEEN DETERMINED HOW DO WE PLAY IT
If a MEANINGFUL TREND has been found we need a logical entry.

Let's start with the UPTREND.

We BUY a pullback and we are nimble with our target.
 Where exactly?
Well, it can be a 50% Fib retracement from the recent High to Low swing, or
whatever you feel comfortable with.
We take advantage of minor WEAKNESS in a STRONG TREND to get a good
fill.
 What's your target?
It can be a few ticks below previous resistance. You could trail the stop to
ride those breakouts, all very discretionary. This is entirely up to you and only
in time you will master this.
 Stop?
Whatever would make it a lower low, aka a CHANGE of trend?
Long Entry

1. 2 HH & 2 HL or Plain Vanilla Long Entry

2HH and 2 HL in succession will establish an uptrend, as soon as an uptrend is
established we should initiate a Long position. As the price establishes the
second higher low and is moving up, we buy the cross of the previous High. The
price rising above previous high confirms the uptrend and we do not have to
wait for the second HH to get established and then for the price to retrace from
it. This will give us both an early entry and better price.

2. Double Bottom in an uptrend

When the price is in an uptrend, the double bottom formed indicates a
consolidation phase, upside break of the previous High or the middle swing will
confirm the continuation of the previous uptrend, so we take our Long entry on
this break. This setup also gives a very good opportunity for scaling in and
adding to existing long position.
3. Double Bottom @ Low of the Day
When a double bottom is formed at the current Low of the Day, it acts as a
support zone. Although there is no confirmed uptrend the stop or reversal point
will be quite close, thus making the risk reward equation very favorable for a
Long trade. Initiate a Long entry as the price crosses the middle swing. This trade
should be reversed if the price crosses back and makes a new low.
4. Double Bottom and a Swing High
After a double bottom is established and we get a higher high and a higher low
(swing high), it confirms an uptrend. In this case we do not have to wait for
second swing high (HH & HL). The Long entry is the cross of the current higher
high. If the DB was at the LOD and a Long entry was initiated as per rule 3, this
setup gives a very good opportunity to scale in and add to the Long position.

 Stop?
Whatever would make it a lower low, aka a CHANGE of trend?
The Last Swing Low (HL): As soon as the trend changes or the trend is in doubt,
the reason for being in the trade is no more valid and we should take our exit
immediately. The higher swing highs and higher lows define the uptrend. As soon
as the price crosses the previously established Low, we know that we are no
more going to get a higher low, so the previous (last) Low becomes the natural
Stop for all the Long trades.

While trying to follow trend remember, the trend is our friend only till it bends.
Now, let’s talk about the evil twin, the DOWNTREND.
We SHORT a pop up and again, we are nimble with our target.
 Where exactly?
Well, it can be a 50% Fib retracement from High to Low, whatever you feel
comfortable with. We take advantage of STRENGTH in a WEAK TREND to get
a good fill.
 What's your target?
It can be a few ticks above previous support. You could trail the stop to ride
those breakdowns, all very discretionary. This is entirely up to you and only in
time you will master this.
 Stop?
Whatever would make it a higher high aka a CHANGE of trend?

Important, we never go against the trend. When the trend is strong we buy a
pullback. When the trend is weak we Short a pop up. No exceptions don't play
hero or Nostradamus, there is not a soul on earth who can predict the market
consistently and what we want is consistency, so be smart about this.
If STOPPED OUT, meaning, a CHANGE of a trend, we stay ON THE SIDELINES until
a NEW MEANINGFUL TREND is defined and we take our stop like responsible
traders. If we get faked out, so be it, plan your trade and trade your plan. Losses
are inevitable and quite alright as long as we limit them to small numbers.
 Who is our enemy?
You got it, REVERSALS. REVERSALS stop us out.
Lucky for us, they are not very common which is exactly why this strategy works.
Some days will be filled with them and sadly we don't know how to overcome
this. On days like this, we’ll lose money.
Surprisingly so, people call reversals all the time then you wonder why 90% of
traders lose money? We never call a top, we never call a bottom, we never say
"Oh it's too high" or "It's too low" the market has no boundaries. Yes, you heard
that right, NO BOUNDARIES. There are so many variables in the market it is
IMPOSSIBLE to predict accurately on a consistently basis therefore the best we
can do is examine what is happening NOW and try to profit from some possible
volatility and situate myself in a strategic place, with patience and conviction.
Short Entry

1. 2 LH & 2 LL or Plain Vanilla Short Entry

2LH and 2 LL in succession will establish a downtrend, as soon as a downtrend is
established we should initiate a Short position. As the price establishes the
second lower high and is moving down, we Short the cross of the previous Low,
this serves 2 purpose, the price falling below previous low confirms the
downtrend, also we do not have to wait for the second LL to get established
and for the price to retrace from it. This will give us both an early entry and
better price for the Shorts.

2. Double Top in an downtrend

When the price is in a downtrend, the double top formed indicates a
consolidation phase, downside break of the previous Low or the middle swing
will confirm the continuation of the previous downtrend, so we take our Short
entry on this break. This setup also gives a very good opportunity for scaling in
and adding to existing short position.
3. Double Top @ High of the Day
When a double top is formed at the current High of the Day, it acts as a very
strong resistance zone. Although there is no confirmed downtrend the stop or
reversal point will be quite close, thus making the risk reward equation very
favorable for a Short trade. Initiate a Short entry as the price crosses the middle
swing. This trade should be reversed if the price crosses back and makes a new
high.

4. Double Top and a Swing Low

After a double top is established and we get a lower high and a lower low
(swing low), it confirms a downtrend. In this case we do not have to wait for
second swing low (LH & LL). The Long entry is the cross of the current lower low. If
the DT was at the HOD and a Long entry was initiated as per rule 3, this setup
gives a very good opportunity to scale in and add to the Short position.

 Stop?
Whatever would make it a higher high aka a CHANGE of trend?
The Last Swing High (LH): As soon as the trend changes or the trend is in doubt,
the reason for being in the trade is no more valid and we should take our exit
immediately. The lower swing highs and lows define the downtrend. As soon as
the price crosses the previously established High, we know that we are no more
going to get a lower high, so the previous (last) High becomes the natural Stop
for all the Short trades.
STEP 3: INDICATORS
We are not big fans of technical indicators, mostly because we have no interest
in using something that tells us what happened 10 years ago. Price action is all
we need and when using tick/share charts we don't need to use a volume
indicator.
However, there are some we can use for strength/weakness references, entries
and exits.
For example:
 TRENDLINES, as many as we need to determine the current trend.
 FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LINES, my favorite. 50% from last swing low/high
and we got an excellent entry point. Problem is sometimes the trend is so
strong it won't even give us our wish and we miss the fill.

STEP 4: MONEY MANAGEMENT

As we get more experienced, it’s highly recommend we use an average up
approach. More on this later, until then, use the same car size on every play and
for God's sake DO NOT AVERAGE DOWN unless you are just trying to get fills for
your intended car size, never surpassing it.

As previously stated and those that known me for a while know I advocate
averaging up. I feel this is an advanced money management technique and for
now I am not discussing it to avoid confusion / mistakes.

STEP 5: DISCIPLINE
I'll be blunt. Trading is not for the irresponsible. Break the rules and you will
eventually lose big, period. Trading will forgive you if you were wrong on a play
even several ones. It won't forgive or tolerate idiocy and stupidity. All I need to
say on this and you have been warned.

STEP 6: CHART TYPES

Long bars are evil, therefore I highly recommend tick/share charts so you can
split that data and examine it with care. For the YM I recommend 75 or 89 tick
charts. This differs greatly from one instrument to the other, the more
volume/activity it has the greater the tick size you will need. Use what you feel
comfortable with.
 Quotes from the Master

The Best Trades

- The best trades work from the start
- The best trades got multiple signal confirmations
- The best trades offer no heat
- The best trades require small stops
- The best trades follow your trading plan
- The best trades develop momentum & acceleration after your position is in,
not before
- The best trades are simply when you are quick enough to spot the birth of a
new trend without actually being a contrarian
Now, wouldn't you like most of your trades to be like that?
If so, shoot for the best trades and skip the rest.

Why I hate big stops

- A big stop by definition means you are not even sure of your entry signal
- A big stop promotes hoping and praying and not trading
- A big stop is gambling
- A big stop is for those refusing to take a loss, when losses are necessary in
successful trading
- A big stop creates the illusion of higher accuracy but in the end it only results in
a negative P/L
- A big stop prevents you from loading up because the drawdown can be
monstrous
- A big stop is for those who fail to realize they can always get back in a trade
Took me a long time to learn this, hope it takes you only a fraction.
....and yes this applies to day trading not swing trading or investing.
Where is my Stop
Price action always dictates where the stop goes, then you compare with your
notes and decide if it's something you should take or not.
For instance
Say I see a double bottom with a furious mid swing in between. Making the stop
approximately 4 points (ES) that is quite a load in my book.
When that happens you got some decisions to make...
- Do I reduce car size to make up for the higher than usual stop ?
- Do I look for the next resistance point and see if the sky is clear for a target of
say 6? & readjust the stop to a safer place?
- Do I say, screw this I will take a trade with better odds?
- Do I skip the DB and just wait until a trend line is developed and follow that?
Decisions, decisions.....all in the name of preservation of capital
Entry Trigger
When you are looking for a retracement in a clear uptrend you also want some
sort of strength confirmation to avoid buying a falling knife or a retracement that
is not yet complete.
Obviously, reverse for shorts.
In order to facilitate this task I suggest you wait for a bar closing above previous
bar high as a sign of strength and a bar closing below previous bar low as a sign
of weakness. Once again, everything with the trend!
Is there a trend?
Yes
What is it?
It's long
Is it retracing?
Yes
Has it printed a bar closing above previous bar high (strength) after retracing
considerably without breaking major support or pivot swing?
Yes
Where does the stop go?
A few ticks below the strong bar should do because you can always re-enter in
case of noise or fakes.
Remember, I love my small stops as it is not about being right but about making
money.
Averaging up
One great start, non exclusive, for an averaging up approach is a reversal
formation at the LOD or HOD.
Study reversal formations very carefully
i.e. Double Tops, Double Bottoms, M Tops, W Bottoms, V Bottoms, Triple &
Rectangles.
As soon as you get confirmation begin your average up approach with a
minimal position.
Add on every possible pullback before the next major support or resistance area
as soon as a strong/weak bar is evident once the retracement looks exhausted.
Sell/Cover it all around the next significant support or resistance point or partial.
If resistance becomes support or support becomes resistance you can begin all
over again with your minimal position or can continue adding to what it is still in
play provided that you have a change of a trend trailing stop protecting every
add and of course, past profits.
Confirmation is an insurance card, use it accordingly but make it a requirement
for every move you make, whether it is entry or exit.
Every trade should be an educated prediction and every add should be an
additional confirmation.
The more confirmations the more your car size should increase because at first
we never really know where price will go but as we get additional data
supporting our original trade theory, the story starts revealing itself.
As you well know this method promotes small losses and all kinds of winners from
miniature to gigantic. It is no coincidence that it is chop proof because if you
get no additional confirmations you stand on the sidelines with your small
position. This method will also help you avoid calling tops and bottoms because
in the back of your mind you don't want it to end, this can be a very powerful
psychological asset.
The absolute key to mega profitable consistent trading is having the skill to spot
the birth of a new trend correctly and playing it responsibly with solid money
management.
Re-entry
If I get stopped out on the first entry, as long as support is still supporting, I would
be willing to re-enter on the first evidence of strength returning to the play. Most
definitely, I will not let one quick stop kill my concentration but limit my losses I
must, averaging down I will not, ever.
Usually the second attempt works very smoothly, no surprise there as they say
the first wave is always for the newbies while the smart money sits back waiting
for some real confirmation. Remember, it's never about the best fill but about the
best feel. And by feel I mean numerous confirmations, what you actually feel
means nothing to the market as you are an atom and the market is the universe.
Obviously you don't go nuts and just buy the next drop because if it's dropping
its doing so for a reason. It is your duty as a responsible trader to determine if the
price drop is profit taking or a possible change of direction, car size on time and
sales is useful in this area.
The idea of an even "better fill" is dangerous so make sure you are not fooled
into such actions.
However, if a sign of strength returning is present that's another story.
Obviously, if support is broken, it's time to look at the big picture again and re-
evaluate.... and by broken I assume by now you know I mean a solid bar
closing below it.
Notice, there is a huge difference between doing this and averaging down
because as you re-evaluate the scenario you have already limited your losses.
Contrary to averaging down where you keep losing on every tick against you
regardless if there is strength returning or not. Frankly, a real dangerous way to
trade but since the accuracy is high, traders keep choosing this so called money
management "tactic". No offense but this is simply, stupidity.
The fact of the matter is that when you are correct in your evaluation of price
action, a great deal of the plays will take almost no heat because you have
and must look at all angles before entering a play. After-all, this is your hard
earned money. I would rather waste it on stouts or my kids than some on some
random dude at the other side of my trade or worse, the broker. That's what I
look when entering a trade, very little heat, if any, and a pleasant ride to the
next level. Naturally, I don't always get this but this is what I shoot for.
Avoiding Whipsaw
The whipsaw you speak of is easy to avoid because unless strength is found you
stay on the sidelines. You do not go back in, just because it is supposedly a
better fill, you go back in when price action gives you the green light.
It's hard to get multiple strength conditions without price actually following.
If the chop is present there wont be much strength to notice right so don't let this
scare you. Feel free to study the charts and confirm my findings, in fact I
encourage it.
When support is broken by wicks, that could possibly just be other trader's stops
hitting at market, don't let those wicks fool you, the close is everything, always.
In fact a close + 1 tick at the extreme of the closing bar is even safer, that's a
strong tip I just gave you, use it.
Why do you think hammers at support with piercing wicks are so powerful?
Clear sign of exhaustion; Once again, the hammer alone is not enough, multiple
confirmations at all times.
Why?
Because no one thing works by itself
If you wait for a retracement and then for strength to return if strength is really
returning why on earth would you need a big stop, it's supposed to be strength
at or near support right ?
Some traders claim large stops are required due to noise or volatility I say it is
their ineptitude to read price action correctly. Not claiming super-trader here,
took me a while to learn and accept this. I've said it in the past and I will say it
again and again, you beat this game with small losses and all kinds of winners.
Great accuracy is a bonus and something that comes much later, the real key
here is riding those wild runners remembering that price rarely goes up without
retracing and that re-entering a trade is not only an option but a powerful one.
An option that can be applied even when things are going well.
One more thing, if you do re-enter a second time because the play is still very
much valid you better be prepared to ride this one to a displacement bigger
than the original one, assuming the fill was actually, a "better" one. After-all, it is
still the same swing.
Lot of opinions in this department, choose what you feel comfortable with but
most important what works best for your style and psychology. I can tell you
what works for me but what works for you might be something completely
different.
Yes, the size of the stop varies depending on how many ticks below previous bar
or bars I allow the stop to take. Anything remotely out of the ordinary and that
would be something I'm not interested in taking because I trade to win big and
lose small as much as I can. It sounds crazy but some of my best plays are when
I buy right at support levels or short right at resistant areas, fortunately they also
require the smallest stops, food for thought. In fact a dear friend and fellow
trader only trades like that, is he effective? You better believe it, is his accuracy
rate high, absolutely not but he knows when it's time to pick support and when
it's time to pick resistance and his stops are based on confirmation not exact
numbers, except for his emergency stop of course. I like to do something similar
but I always require my confirmation no matter how close to support or
resistance the entry is. Obviously, today was not an optimal day to be shorting
resistance but that's easy to determine if you are a student of price action.
I might seem like a nice guy, and I think I am, but when I'm in the battlefield
fighting other traders I'm the meanest mofo you can imagine, I protect my
capital like my children and when I'm right I want as much as I can without
neglecting any angles. I like to think I'm taking money from institutions and that
no institution is taking money from me.
To conclude my friend, Risk Management is your best ally.
Hope it helps and keep the faith.