Kakashi (FM)
Kakashi (FM)
Kakashi (FM)
PROJECT REPORT
ON
FINANCIAL MODELLING
BATCH: 2016-2019
Batch: -2016-2019
CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that the project work “FINANCIAL MODELING” made by ROHIT
KUMAR, B.COM(H), 6th semester, Enrollment no: 42724088816 is an authentic work carried
out by him/her under guidance and supervision of Ms. Divya Gupta.
The project report submitted has been found satisfactory for the partial fulfillment of the
degree of Bachelor of Commerce (Honors).
Project Supervisor
I hereby declare that the following documented project report on “Financial Modeling” is an
original and authentic work done by me for the partial fulfillment of Bachelor of Business
Administration degree program.
I hereby declare that all the Endeavour put in the fulfillment of the task and genuine and
original to the best of my knowledge & I have not submitted it earlier elsewhere.
Signature:
ROHIT KUMAR
B.COM (H)
SECTION- B
They have provided me with the valuable guidance sustained and friendly approach it would
have been difficult to achieve the results in such a short span of time without their help.
I deem it my duty to record my gratitude towards my internal project supervisor Ms. Divya
Gupta who devoted her precious time to interact, guide and gave me the right approach to
accomplish the task and also helped me to enhance my knowledge and understanding of the
project.
ROHIT KUMAR
B.COM (H)
SECTION- B
Row
A row is the range of cells that go across (horizontal) the spreadsheet/worksheet. Rows are
identified by numbers e.g. row 1, row 5. Example: A row might contain the headings of a
table e.g. product ID, product name, price, number sold.
Column
A column is a vertical series of cells in a chart, table, or spreadsheet. Below is an example of
a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet with column headers (column letter) A, B, C and D.
Range
A cell range is a collection of selected cells in a spreadsheet. In Excel, a range is defined by
the reference of the upper left cell (minimum value) of the range and the reference of the
lower right cell (maximum value) of the range.
Active Cell
Alternatively referred to as a cell pointer, current cell, or selected cell, an active cell is a
rectangular box, highlighting the cell in a spreadsheet. An active cell helps identify what cell
is being worked with and where data will be entered.
How to delete
o Select a cell or a no. of cells which you want to delete.
o Press delete key.
o Example: Abc from cell A1 is being depleted by pressing Delete key.
Copy
o Select a cell or range of cells which you want to copy.
o Right click and select copy option. Or press Ctrl+C key.
o Go to the cell where you want to paste copied data.
o Right click and select paste option. Or press Ctrl+V key.
o Example: Abc from cell A1 is being copied and paste to the cell A2.
Cut
o Select a cell or no. of cells which you want to cut.
o Right click and select cut option. Or press Ctrl+X key.
o Go to the cell where you want to paste copied data.
o Right click and select paste option. Or press Ctrl+V key.
o Example: Abc from cell A1 is being cut and paste to the cell A2.
Paste
Commands mostly used by the Cut and paste or copy and paste.
Edit
There are many ways you can edit the data in your Excel sheets. Excel provides plenty of
tools and features not only to edit your document, but also to customize the editing process.
Resize
You can resize your text and images by clicking on it and then selecting it and then changing
the size of it from the "HOME" bar.
Insert a comment
o Right-click the cell and then click Insert Comment (or press Shift+F2).
o Type your annotation text.
o Click outside the cell.
Hide Comment
Add a sheet
In Microsoft Excel, a sheet, sheet tab, or worksheet tab is used to display the worksheet that
a user is currently editing.
o Clicking a worksheet tab (located at the bottom of the window), users may move
between the various worksheets. Every Excel file may have multiple worksheets,
but the default number is three.
o Or press Shif+F11
o Or, On the Home tab, in the Cells group, click the arrow next to Insert, and then
click Insert Sheet.
Or
Rename
o Clicking a worksheet tab (located at the bottom of the window).
o Right-click on the tab of the worksheet you want to rename to open the context
menu.
o Click on Rename in the menu list to highlight the current worksheet name.
o Type the new name for the worksheet.
o Press the Enter key on the keyboard to complete renaming the worksheet.
o Or, on the Home tab, in the Cells group, click the arrow next to Format , and then
click Rename Sheet.
Or
Delete
o On the Home tab, in the Cells group, click the arrow next to Delete, and then
click Delete Sheet.
o You can also right-click the sheet tab of a worksheet or a sheet tab of any
selected worksheets that you want to delete, and then click Delete Sheet.
Or
Hide/Unhide
o On the Home tab, in the Cells group, click the arrow next to Format, and then
click Hide & Unhide Sheet.
o You can also right-click the sheet tab of a worksheet or a sheet tab of any
selected worksheets that you want to hide, and then click Hide/Unhide Sheet.
Or
Move/Copy Sheet
o On the Home tab, in the Cells group, click the arrow next to Format, and then
click Move or Copy Sheet.
o You can also right-click the sheet tab of a worksheet or a sheet tab of any
selected worksheets that you want to Move or Copy , and then click Move or
Copy Sheet.
Or
Wrap Text
o In a worksheet, select the cells that you want to format.
o On the Home tab, in the Alignment group, click Wrap Text . Notes: Data in the
cell wraps to fit the column width, so if you change the column width,
data wrapping adjusts automatically.
Filtering & Sorting
The filter tool gives you the ability to filter a column of data within a table to isolate the key
components you need. The sorting tool allows you to sort by date, number, alphabetic order
and more.
Filter/Sort
o On the Home tab, in the Cells group, click the arrow next to Sort & Filter, and
then click Filter/Sort.
o You can also right-click the sheet tab of a worksheet or a sheet tab of any
selected worksheets that you want to filter/sort, and then click what you want to
filer/sort.
o Example: I have filtered, name of the people whose birthday month is December.
I have sorted, cells which contains purple color should be on top.
OR
Sort
Merger and Center
This document explains how to merge cells within all versions of
Microsoft Excel. Merging cells is often used when a title is to be centered over a particular
section of a spreadsheet. When a group of cells is merged, only the text in the upper-leftmost
box is preserved.
o On the Home tab, in the Cells group, click the arrow next to Merge & center,
and then click Merge& center.
Conditional Formatting
Conditional formatting is a feature of Excel which allows you to apply a format to a cell or
a range of cells based on certain criteria. For example the following rules are used to
highlight cells in the conditional format.
o On the Home tab, in the Cells group, click the arrow next to Conditional
Formatting, and then click the format which you want to apply.
o Example: I have done conditional formatting by setting an icon, i.e. whose
percentage of attendance is less than 50% will be marked cross, more than 50%
but less than 75% will be marked as exclamation mark and more than 75% will
be marked as tick.
What if analysis
What-If Analysis in Excel allows you to try out different values (scenarios) for formulas.
Assume you own a book store and have 100 books in storage. You sell a certain % for the
highest price of $50 and a certain % for the lower price of $20.
But what if you sell 70% for the highest price? And what if you sell 80% for the highest
price? Or 90%, or even 100%? Each different percentage is a different scenario. You can use
the Scenario Manager to create these scenarios.
STEPS:
7. Finally, your Scenario Manager should be consistent with the picture below:
The Scenario Manager will look like the picture given below.
To easily compare the results of these scenarios, execute the following steps.
2. Next, select cell D10 (total profit) for the result cell and click on OK
Result:
Conclusion:
If you sell 70% for the highest price, you obtain a total profit of $4100, if you sell 80% for
the highest price, you obtain a total profit of $4400, etc. That's how easy what-if analysis in
Excel can be.
What if you want to know how many books you need to sell for the highest price, to obtain a
total profit of exactly $4700? We use Excel's Goal Seek feature to find the answer.
5. 5. Click in the 'By changing cell' box and select cell C4.
6. 6. Click OK.
RESULT:
Macros
A macro is simply a series of instructions. After you've created a macro, Excel will execute
those instructions, step-by-step, on any data that you give it. For example, we could have
a macro that tells Excel to take a number, add two, multiply by five, and return the modulus.
Recording a macro is how you tell Excel which steps to take when you run the macro.
And while you can code a macro using Visual Basic for Applications (VBA), Excel also lets
you record a macro by using standard commands.
Let’s take a look at a basic example. In our spreadsheet, we have a list of names and a
corresponding list of their sales for the month:
We’ll record a macro that sorts the sales from highest to lowest, copies the information of the
most successful salesperson, and changes the formatting to make that information stand out.
You’ll be asked to name your macro (we’ve named ours “HighSales”), and enter a shortcut
key if you choose.
Keep in mind that there are already a lot of Ctrl-based shortcuts, so try not to overwrite any
of those that you use regularly.
And that’s all you need to do to record a macro! Just hit record, take some actions, and then
stop recording.
o View Macros
Solver
Excel includes a tool called solver that uses techniques from the operations research to find
optimal solutions for all kind of decision problems.
Pivot table
The pivot table is one of Microsoft Excel's most powerful -- and intimidating -- functions.
Powerful because it can help you summarize and make sense of large data sets.
Excel is a spreadsheet, a grid made from columns and rows. It is a software program that can
make number manipulation easy and somewhat painless. The nice thing about using a
computer and spreadsheet is that you can experiment with numbers without having to RE-DO
all the calculations.
EXCEL FEATURES
There are a number of features that are available in Excel to make your task easier. Some of
the main features are:
2. List AutoFill - automatically extends cell formatting when a new item is added to the end
of a list.
3. AutoFill - feature allows you to quickly fill cells with repetitive or sequential data such as
chronological dates or numbers, and repeated text. AutoFill can also be used to copy
functions. You can also alter text and numbers with this feature.
4. AutoShapes toolbar will allow you to draw a number of geometrical shapes, arrows,
flowchart elements, stars and more. With these shapes you can draw your own graphs.
5. Wizard - guides you to work effectively while you work by displaying various helpful tips
and techniques based on what you are doing.
Drag and Drop - feature will help you to reposition the data and text by simply dragging the
data with the help of mouse.
6. Charts - features will help you in presenting a graphical representation of your data in the
form of Pie, Bar, Line charts and more.
7. PivotTable - flips and sums data in seconds and allows you to perform data analysis and
generating reports like periodic financial statements, statistical reports, etc. You can also
analyse complex data relationships graphically.
EXCEL WORKSHEET
Excel allows you to create worksheets much like paper ledgers that can perform automatic
calculations. Each Excel file is a workbook that can hold many worksheets. The worksheet is
agrid of columns (designated by letters) and rows (designated bynumbers). The letters and
numbers of the columns and rows (called labels) are displayed in gray buttons across the top
and left side of the worksheet. The intersection of a column and am row is called a cell. Each
cell on the spread sheet has a cell address that is the column letter and the row number. Cells
can contain either text, numbers, or mathematical formulas.
Step 1 - Understand the expected uses of the model and the required outputs.
Step 2 - Collect historical data for the company, its industry and for its major competitors.
Step 3 - Understand the company's plan and develop a comprehensive set of modelling
assumptions.
Step 4 - Build a model and debug it.
Step 5 - Improve the model based on feedback.
Building a Template
If you create your own template, you can safely store it in the Templates folder. As a result,
you can create new workbooks based on this template without worrying that you overwrite
the original file.
1. Create a workbook.
2. On the File tab, click Save As.
3. Click Browse.
4. Enter a file name.
5. Select Excel Template (*.xltx) from the drop-down list.
Excel automatically activates the Templates folder. Notice the location of the
Templates folder on your computer. It's usually located here:
C:\Users\<username>\Documents\Custom Office Templates.
6. Click Save.
1. QUALITATIVE
a. Executive Opinion
In this the expert opinion of key personnel of different departments like sales,
production, purchasing and operations are gathered to arrive at future
predictions.
c. Delphi technique
A series of questionnaires are prepared and answered by a group of expert who
are keeping separate from each other. Once the result of each questionnaire
was compiled and second questionnaire is prepared and this process continues
until a narrow shortlisted of opinions is reached.
Horizontal analysis compares financial information over time, typically from past
quarters or years. Horizontal analysis is performed by comparing financial data from a
past statement, such as the income statement. When comparing this past information
one will want to look for variations such as higher or lower earnings.
2. VERTICAL ANALYSIS
Vertical analysis is a percentage analysis of financial statements. Each line item listed
in the financial statement is listed as the percentage of another line item. For example,
on an income statement each line item will be listed as a percentage of gross sales.
This technique is also referred to as normalization or common-sizing.
3. RATIO ANALYSIS
4. TREND ANALYSIS
The ratios of different items for various periods are find out and then compared under
this analysis. The analysis of the ratios over a period of years gives an idea of whether
the business concern is trending upward or downward. This analysis is otherwise
called as Pyramid Method.
5. REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression analysis is a powerful statisticalmethod that allows you to examine the
relationship between two or more variables of interest.
While there are many types of regression analysis, at their core they all examine the
influence of one or more independent variables on a dependent variable.
Financial Statement Modeling involves Three Financial Statements:
Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet is a statement of the assets, liabilities, and capital of a business or other
organization at a particular point in time, detailing the balance of income and expenditure
over the preceding period.
Cash flows
Cash flow is the net amount of cash and cash-equivalents being transferred into and out of a
business. At the most fundamental level, a company’s ability to create value for shareholders
is determined by its ability to generate positive cash flows, or more specifically, maximize
long-term free cash flow.
Income Statements
An income statement or profit and loss account is one of the financial statements of a
company and shows the company’s revenues and expenses during a particular period. It
indicates how the revenues are transformed into the net income or net profit.
Cash flows
In financial accounting, a Cash flow statement, also known as statement of cash flows, is
a financial statement that shows how changes in balance sheet accounts and income
affect cash and cash equivalents, and breaks the analysis down to operating, investing, and
financing activities. Essentially, the cash flow statement is concerned with the flow of cash in
and out of the business. The statement captures both the current operating results and the
accompanying changes in the balance sheet. As an analytical tool, the statement of cash flows
is useful in determining the short-term viability of a company, particularly its ability to pay
bills. International Accounting Standard 7 (IAS 7), is the International Accounting
Standard that deals with cash flow statements.
Accounting personnel, who need to know whether the organization will be able to
cover payroll and other immediate expenses
Potential lenders or creditors, who want a clear picture of a company's ability to repay
Potential investors, who need to judge whether the company is financially sound
Potential employees or contractors, who need to know whether the company will be
able to afford compensation
2. Receivables Turnover
The receivables turnover ratio is calculated by dividing net revenue by average receivables.
This ratio is a measure of how quickly and efficiently a company collects on its outstanding
bills. The receivables turnover indicates how many times per period the company collects and
turns into cash its customers’ accounts receivable. Once again, a high turnover compared to
that of peers means that cash is collected more quickly for use in the company, but be sure to
analyze the turnover ratio in relation to the firm’s competitors. A very high receivables
turnover ratio can also mean that a company’s credit policy is too stringent, causing the firm
to miss out on sales opportunities. Alternatively, a low or declining turnover can signal that
customers are struggling to pay their bills.
3. Payables Turnover
Payables turnover measures how quickly a company pays off the money owed to suppliers.
The ratio is calculated by dividing purchases (on credit) by average payables. A high number
compared to the industry average indicates that the firm is paying off creditors quickly, and
vice versa. An unusually high ratio may suggest that a firm is not utilizing the credit extended
to them, or it could be the result of the company taking advantage of early payment discounts.
A low payables turnover ratio could indicate that a company is having trouble paying off its
bills or that it is taking advantage of lenient supplier credit policies.
4. Asset Turnover
Asset turnover measures how efficiently a company uses its total assets to generate revenues.
The formula to calculate this ratio is simply net revenues divided by average total assets. A
low asset turnover ratio may mean that the firm is inefficient in its use of its assets or that it is
operating in a capital-intensive environment. Additionally, it may point to a strategic choice
by management to use a more capital-intensive (as opposed to a more labour-intensive)
approach.
Liquidity Ratios
Liquidity ratios are some of the most widely used ratios, perhaps next to profitability ratios.
They are especially important to creditors. These ratios measure a firm’s ability to meet its
short-term obligations.
1. Current Ratio
The current ratio measures a company’s current assets against its current liabilities. The
current ratio indicates if the company can pay off its short-term liabilities in an emergency by
liquidating its current assets. Current assets are found at the top of the balance sheet and
include line items such as cash and cash equivalents, accounts receivable and inventory,
among others.
2. Quick Ratio
The quick ratio is a liquidity ratio that is more stringent than the current ratio. This ratio
compares the cash, short-term marketable securities and accounts receivable to current
liabilities. The thought behind the quick ratio is that certain line items, such as prepaid
expenses, have already been paid out for future use and cannot be quickly and easily
converted back to cash for liquidity purposes. In our example, the quick ratio of 0.45x
indicates that the company can only cover 45% of current liabilities by using all cash-on-
hand, liquidating short-term marketable securities and monetizing accounts receivable.
3. Cash Ratio
The most conservative liquidity ratio is the cash ratio, which is calculated as simply cash and
short-term marketable securities divided by current liabilities. Cash and short-term
marketable securities represent the most liquid assets of a firm. Short-term marketable
securities include short-term highly liquid assets such as publicly traded stocks, bonds and
options held for less than one year. During normal market conditions, these securities can
easily be liquidated on an exchange.
Solvency Ratios
Solvency ratios measure a company’s ability to meet its longer-term obligations. Analysis of
solvency ratios provides insight on a company’s capital structure as well as the level of
financial leverage a firm is using.
1. Debt-To-Capital Ratio
The debt-to-capital ratio is very similar, measuring the amount of a company’s total capital
(liabilities plus equity) that is provided by debt (interesting bearing notes and short- and long-
term debt). Once again, a high ratio means high financial leverage and risk. Although
financial leverage creates additional financial risk by increased fixed interest payments, the
main benefit to using debt is that it does not dilute ownership. In theory, earnings are split
among fewer owners, creating higher earnings per share. However, the increased financial
risk of higher leverage may hold the company to stricter debt covenants. These covenants
could restrict the company’s growth opportunities and ability to pay or raise dividends.
2. Debt-To-Equity Ratio
The debt-to-equity ratio measures the amount of debt capital a firm uses compared to the
amount of equity capital it uses. A ratio of 1.00x indicates that the firm uses the same amount
of debt as equity and means that creditors have claim to all assets, leaving nothing for
shareholders in the event of a theoretical liquidation.
Profitability Ratios
Profitability ratios are arguably the most widely used ratios in investment analysis. These
ratios include the ubiquitous “margin” ratios, such as gross, operating and net profit margins.
These ratios measure the firm’s ability to earn an adequate return. When analyzing a
company’s margins, it is always prudent to compare them against those of the industry and its
close competitors.
Market approach - This is a form of relative valuation and frequently used in the industry. It
includes comparable analysis and prudent transactions finally.
The discounted cash flow (DCF) is a form of intrinsic valuation and the most detailed
through approach to valuation model.
Public company comparable is also known as comparable approach per group analysis.
In this we compare the current value of business to the other similar business by looking at
trading multiples like PE ratio, EV: EBITDA ratio or other ratios. If the company trades at 10
times PE ratio.
Example: If company X trades at 10 times PE ratio and another company Y that we want to
value which has same attributes as company X having earnings of Rs. 2.50 per share the the
market value of company Y stock must be 10*2.5 =25
Precedent transactions: Precedent transactions are those where you compare the company in
question to other business that have recently being sold or acquired in the industry. They are
useful for merger and acquisition transactions but can easily become stale dated and the
longer reflective of the current market prices.
DCF - It is an intrinsic value approach where an analyst forecasts the business's free cash
flow into the future and discount book to today at the firm's weighted average cost of capital
(WACC)
Sensitivity analysis
One of the major uses of financial statement forecasting models is to do sensitivity analysis.
We can see the effect of making changes in any of the input (independent) variables on the
other dependent variable by making the changes in the model. But trying these out one at a
time does not provide us a comprehensive picture. Your management wants to see how Net
Income, EPS, dividend per share, and stock price will change for 2006 for sales growth rates
from 1% to 10% per year over the years. Create a one-input data table to show this
information. Also create a two-input data table to show how EBIT for 2003 will depend on
cost of sales to sales ratio and sales growth rate in a reasonable range.
Unit-3
CASH RATIOS &NON CASH VALUATIONS
2.1 INTRODUCTION TO EXCEL
Excel is a spreadsheet, a grid made from columns and rows. It is a software program that can
make number manipulation easy and somewhat painless. The nice thing about using a
computer and spreadsheet is that you can experiment with numbers without having to RE-DO
all the calculations.
There are a number of features that are available in Excel to make your task easier. Some of
the main features are:
AutoFormat - lets you to choose many preset table formatting options.
2. List AutoFill - automatically extends cell formatting when a new item is added to the end
of a list.
3. AutoFill - feature allows you to quickly fill cells with repetitive or sequential data such as
chronological dates or numbers, and repeated text. AutoFill can also be used to copy
functions. You can also alter text and numbers with this feature.
4. AutoShapes toolbar will allow you to draw a number of geometrical shapes, arrows,
flowchart elements, stars and more. With these shapes you can draw your own graphs.
5. Wizard - guides you to work effectively while you work by displaying various helpful tips
and techniques based on what you are doing.
Drag and Drop - feature will help you to reposition the data and text by simply dragging the
data with the help of mouse.
6. Charts - features will help you in presenting a graphical representation of your data in the
form of Pie, Bar, Line charts and more.
7. PivotTable - flips and sums data in seconds and allows you to perform data analysis and
generating reports like periodic financial statements, statistical reports, etc. You can also
analyse complex data relationships graphically.
EXCEL WORKSHEET
Excel allows you to create worksheets much like paper ledgers that can perform automatic
calculations. Each Excel file is a workbook that can hold many worksheets. The worksheet is
agrid of columns (designated by letters) and rows (designated bynumbers). The letters and
numbers of the columns and rows (called labels) are displayed in gray buttons across the top
and left side of the worksheet. The intersection of a column and am row is called a cell. Each
cell on the spread sheet has a cell address that is the column letter and the row number. Cells
can contain either text, numbers, or mathematical formulas.
2.3 STEPS IN CREATING A FINANCIAL MODEL
Step 1 - Understand the expected uses of the model and the required outputs.
Step 2 - Collect historical data for the company, its industry and for its major competitors.
Step 3 - Understand the company's plan and develop a comprehensive set of modelling
assumptions.
Step 4 - Build a model and debug it.
Step 5 - Improve the model based on feedback.
If you create your own template, you can safely store it in the Templates folder. As a result,
you can create new workbooks based on this template without worrying that you overwrite
the original file.
7. Create a workbook.
8. On the File tab, click Save As.
9. Click Browse.
10. Enter a file name.
11. Select Excel Template (*.xltx) from the drop-down list.
Excel automatically activates the Templates folder. Notice the location of the
Templates folder on your computer. It's usually located here:
C:\Users\<username>\Documents\Custom Office Templates.
12. Click Save.
2.5 FORECASTING FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
2. QUANTITATIVE
2. QUALITATIVE
e. Executive Opinion
In this the expert opinion of key personnel of different departments like sales,
production, purchasing and operations are gathered to arrive at future
predictions.
g. Delphi technique
A series of questionnaires are prepared and answered by a group of expert who
are keeping separate from each other. Once the result of each questionnaire
was compiled and second questionnaire is prepared and this process continues
until a narrow shortlisted of opinions is reached.
6. HORIZONTAL ANALYSIS
Horizontal analysis compares financial information over time, typically from past
quarters or years. Horizontal analysis is performed by comparing financial data from a
past statement, such as the income statement. When comparing this past information
one will want to look for variations such as higher or lower earnings.
7. VERTICAL ANALYSIS
Vertical analysis is a percentage analysis of financial statements. Each line item listed
in the financial statement is listed as the percentage of another line item. For example,
on an income statement each line item will be listed as a percentage of gross sales.
This technique is also referred to as normalization or common-sizing.
8. RATIO ANALYSIS
Ratio analysis is an attempt of developing meaningful relationship between individual
items (or group of items) in the balance sheet or profit and loss account. Ratio
analysis is not only useful to internal parties of business concern but also useful to
external parties. Ratio analysis highlights the liquidity, solvency, profitability and
capital gearing.
9. TREND ANALYSIS
The ratios of different items for various periods are find out and then compared under
this analysis. The analysis of the ratios over a period of years gives an idea of whether
the business concern is trending upward or downward. This analysis is otherwise
called as Pyramid Method.
10.REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression analysis is a powerful statisticalmethod that allows you to examine the
relationship between two or more variables of interest.
While there are many types of regression analysis, at their core they all examine the
influence of one or more independent variables on a dependent variable.
Financial Statement Modeling involves Three Financial Statements:
Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet is a statement of the assets, liabilities, and capital of a business or other
organization at a particular point in time, detailing the balance of income and expenditure
over the preceding period.
Cash flows
Cash flow is the net amount of cash and cash-equivalents being transferred into and out of a
business. At the most fundamental level, a company’s ability to create value for shareholders
is determined by its ability to generate positive cash flows, or more specifically, maximize
long-term free cash flow.
Income Statements
An income statement or profit and loss account is one of the financial statements of a
company and shows the company’s revenues and expenses during a particular period. It
indicates how the revenues are transformed into the net income or net profit.
2.6 Cash flows
In financial accounting, a Cash flow statement, also known as statement of cash flows, is
a financial statement that shows how changes in balance sheet accounts and income
affect cash and cash equivalents, and breaks the analysis down to operating, investing, and
financing activities. Essentially, the cash flow statement is concerned with the flow of cash in
and out of the business. The statement captures both the current operating results and the
accompanying changes in the balance sheet. As an analytical tool, the statement of cash flows
is useful in determining the short-term viability of a company, particularly its ability to pay
bills. International Accounting Standard 7 (IAS 7), is the International Accounting
Standard that deals with cash flow statements.
Accounting personnel, who need to know whether the organization will be able to
cover payroll and other immediate expenses
Potential lenders or creditors, who want a clear picture of a company's ability to repay
Potential investors, who need to judge whether the company is financially sound
Potential employees or contractors, who need to know whether the company will be
able to afford compensation
5. Inventory Turnover
6. Receivables Turnover
The receivables turnover ratio is calculated by dividing net revenue by average receivables.
This ratio is a measure of how quickly and efficiently a company collects on its outstanding
bills. The receivables turnover indicates how many times per period the company collects and
turns into cash its customers’ accounts receivable. Once again, a high turnover compared to
that of peers means that cash is collected more quickly for use in the company, but be sure to
analyze the turnover ratio in relation to the firm’s competitors. A very high receivables
turnover ratio can also mean that a company’s credit policy is too stringent, causing the firm
to miss out on sales opportunities. Alternatively, a low or declining turnover can signal that
customers are struggling to pay their bills.
7. Payables Turnover
Payables turnover measures how quickly a company pays off the money owed to suppliers.
The ratio is calculated by dividing purchases (on credit) by average payables. A high number
compared to the industry average indicates that the firm is paying off creditors quickly, and
vice versa. An unusually high ratio may suggest that a firm is not utilizing the credit extended
to them, or it could be the result of the company taking advantage of early payment discounts.
A low payables turnover ratio could indicate that a company is having trouble paying off its
bills or that it is taking advantage of lenient supplier credit policies.
8. Asset Turnover
Asset turnover measures how efficiently a company uses its total assets to generate revenues.
The formula to calculate this ratio is simply net revenues divided by average total assets. A
low asset turnover ratio may mean that the firm is inefficient in its use of its assets or that it is
operating in a capital-intensive environment. Additionally, it may point to a strategic choice
by management to use a more capital-intensive (as opposed to a more labour-intensive)
approach.
Liquidity Ratios
Liquidity ratios are some of the most widely used ratios, perhaps next to profitability ratios.
They are especially important to creditors. These ratios measure a firm’s ability to meet its
short-term obligations.
4. Current Ratio
The current ratio measures a company’s current assets against its current liabilities. The
current ratio indicates if the company can pay off its short-term liabilities in an emergency by
liquidating its current assets. Current assets are found at the top of the balance sheet and
include line items such as cash and cash equivalents, accounts receivable and inventory,
among others.
5. Quick Ratio
The quick ratio is a liquidity ratio that is more stringent than the current ratio. This ratio
compares the cash, short-term marketable securities and accounts receivable to current
liabilities. The thought behind the quick ratio is that certain line items, such as prepaid
expenses, have already been paid out for future use and cannot be quickly and easily
converted back to cash for liquidity purposes. In our example, the quick ratio of 0.45x
indicates that the company can only cover 45% of current liabilities by using all cash-on-
hand, liquidating short-term marketable securities and monetizing accounts receivable.
6. Cash Ratio
The most conservative liquidity ratio is the cash ratio, which is calculated as simply cash and
short-term marketable securities divided by current liabilities. Cash and short-term
marketable securities represent the most liquid assets of a firm. Short-term marketable
securities include short-term highly liquid assets such as publicly traded stocks, bonds and
options held for less than one year. During normal market conditions, these securities can
easily be liquidated on an exchange.
Solvency Ratios
Solvency ratios measure a company’s ability to meet its longer-term obligations. Analysis of
solvency ratios provides insight on a company’s capital structure as well as the level of
financial leverage a firm is using.
4. Debt-To-Capital Ratio
The debt-to-capital ratio is very similar, measuring the amount of a company’s total capital
(liabilities plus equity) that is provided by debt (interesting bearing notes and short- and long-
term debt). Once again, a high ratio means high financial leverage and risk. Although
financial leverage creates additional financial risk by increased fixed interest payments, the
main benefit to using debt is that it does not dilute ownership. In theory, earnings are split
among fewer owners, creating higher earnings per share. However, the increased financial
risk of higher leverage may hold the company to stricter debt covenants. These covenants
could restrict the company’s growth opportunities and ability to pay or raise dividends.
5. Debt-To-Equity Ratio
The debt-to-equity ratio measures the amount of debt capital a firm uses compared to the
amount of equity capital it uses. A ratio of 1.00x indicates that the firm uses the same amount
of debt as equity and means that creditors have claim to all assets, leaving nothing for
shareholders in the event of a theoretical liquidation.
Profitability Ratios
Profitability ratios are arguably the most widely used ratios in investment analysis. These
ratios include the ubiquitous “margin” ratios, such as gross, operating and net profit margins.
These ratios measure the firm’s ability to earn an adequate return. When analyzing a
company’s margins, it is always prudent to compare them against those of the industry and its
close competitors.
1. Cost approach
2. Market approach
3. Discounted cash flow (intrinsic value)
When valuing a business or assets, there are three broad categories that contain their own
methods. The cost approach looks at the cost to build something and is not frequently used by
finance professionals to value a company as going concern.
Market approach - This is a form of relative valuation and frequently used in the industry. It
includes comparable analysis and prudent transactions finally.
The discounted cash flow (DCF) is a form of intrinsic valuation and the most detailed
through approach to valuation model.
Public company comparable is also known as comparable approach per group analysis.
In this we compare the current value of business to the other similar business by looking at
trading multiples like PE ratio, EV: EBITDA ratio or other ratios. If the company trades at 10
times PE ratio.
Example: If company X trades at 10 times PE ratio and another company Y that we want to
value which has same attributes as company X having earnings of Rs. 2.50 per share the the
market value of company Y stock must be 10*2.5 =25
Precedent transactions: Precedent transactions are those where you compare the company in
question to other business that have recently being sold or acquired in the industry. They are
useful for merger and acquisition transactions but can easily become stale dated and the
longer reflective of the current market prices.
DCF - It is an intrinsic value approach where an analyst forecasts the business's free cash
flow into the future and discount book to today at the firm's weighted average cost of capital
(WACC)
Hence the projections, the cash flows and the valuation will vary in each situation. The
difficulty is in ascertaining the numbers of sales and assigning the probabilities. This can be
done by persons who have a strong understanding of the industry.
The management can assign the probability, based on the likely hood of the event, say the
worst (lowest demand, i.e below 5%) situation is given a probability of 0.15, ie there are only
15% chances of salesfalling below 5% rate, and most likely 5%-10% is 0.6, i.e., 60% and
optimistic situation is say 0.25, i.e 25%. These probabilities have to be assigned carefully as
they will have an impact on decision-making.
Unit-3
There are several steps required to build an accounting statement model, including:
A structured model with a menu and accounting statements can be shown as:
1) Table of Contents
2) Revenue, cost and expense projections
3) Income statement
4) Balance Sheet statement
5) Cash Flow statement
COST OF CAPITAL
Ascertaining the discount rate is crucial to valuation and it plays a vital role in valuation. To
ascertain the discounting factor, either cost of capital can be used or weighted average cost of
capital can be used for arriving at the rate at which the present value of future cash flow can
be ascertained.
The most commonly used model is the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) which arrives at
the rate of return of an asset. The formula for cost of equity is
Where, the market premium is the difference between the market rate of return for a security
less the risk free rate.
After arriving at the discounting factor, the same is used for finding out the present value of
future cash flows.
Example:
Aim: Returns the net present value of an investment based on a series of periodic cash flows
and a discount rate.
Result:
3.3.2 IRR Function
Aim: IRR (Internal Rate of Return) returns the internal rate of return for a series of cash
flows. It is used when a firm wants to understand whether to accept or reject a proposal based
on whether it is profitable or not.
Acceptance Rule:
Result:
3.3.3 MIRR Function
Aim: MIRR(Modified Internal Rate of Return) Returns the internal rate of return where
positive and negative cash flows are financed at different rates.
Result:
3.4 Dividend Discount Model
It is a way of valuing a company based on the theory that is the stock is worth the dscounted
sum of all ts future dividend payments in other words it is used to evaluate the stocks based
on net present value of the future dividends.
Formula
Intrinsic value = Sum of Present Value of Dividends + Present Value of Stock Sale Price.
This model is used that all the dividends that are paid by the stock remains one and same
forever until infinite.
This model assumes that dividends grow at a fixed % annually . They are nt variable and are
constant throughout.
Assumes that this model will divide the growth into 2 or 3 phases 1st will be a fast initial
phase, then a slower transition phase ultimatley ends with a lower rate for the infinite period.
Result:
The Annual Dividend is given as Rs. 1.8 having 8% required rate of return. Calculate the
Intrinsic Value of the Stock.
3.5 MARKET BASED METHODS
When an investor invests, the first thing that he does, is that he enquires if there has been
similar transactions that have happened in the same industry to see at what was it acquired.
Valuation is not only numbers, but can also denoted as 2X, or 5X of some variable. This
variable can be the revenue, EBITDA or the PAT. These have a bearing in the valuation.
The steps involved in the market based approach is as follows:
Ascertain the peer group. The companies in the same industry, that are into the same
kind of business, is called the peer group.
The peer group companies must be comparable in size and nature to the company that
is being valued.
The peer group companies must be listed in the market, i.e., the stocks of which trade
in the listed stock exchange.
Once, the peer group is identified, the valuation can be either revenue based or
EBITDA based, or PAT based.
Revenue of each companies is taken and the revenue multiple is ascertained. The revenue
multiple is calculated using the following formula:
EV is enterprise value. The enterprise value is defined as the market capitalization less the
debt and cash is added. Market capitalization shows the market value of the firm and it
computed by multiplying the number of shares and the current quoted market price. The
quoted market price has to be taken as on the valuation date. The enterprise value is the
market capital + debt – cash. Debt is added as any investor, who is going to acquire the
company or invest in the company has to repay the debt and the cash is subtracted as any
investor who takes over has that amount of cash to repay the debt. In case the company has
preference capital and minority interest, then the formula is as follows:
Market capitalization + Preference capital + minority interest + debt – cash and cash
equivalents.
Preference capital, minority interest, associate company value, debt, all have to be taken at
market value. Basically, enterprise value depicts the market value of the firm. Preference
capital is added as market capitalization only considers the outstanding equity shares.
Minority interest is that part that is not held by the holding company, but it is the claim of the
minority share holders, and has an impact during consolidation.
Significance of EV/ EBITDA
Enterprise values the businesses based on their market capitalization. For listed companies,
the market capitalization is the total shares multiplied by the share price as on a given date.
However, EV is not deal only with the market. The stock prices always don not reflect the
true value of the company. Sometimes, a good asset backed stock may also fall below its
book value, due to external factors like government regulations, global recession etc.
EV/EBITDA gives the operating profit multiple as a times of the enterprise value. It is an
important tool to compare different companies of different countries as it ignores the taxation
effect. Also, this helps in comparisons of companies, which have a different capital structure.
EV is better than Market capitalization as it assumes the debt. Hence, this multiple considers
the liability that the company has to assume in case of acquisition or merger. Lower the EV,
better is the position for the acquirer.
Significance of EV/Sales
This ratio signifies the value of the company in terms of its sales. This multiple, shows how
many times the sales is the EV. This is beneficial as the acquirer/purchaser will know how
much it costs to buy the sales of the company. This is better than the price to sales valuation
as the price to sales value takes the market price, whereas this takes into account the debt and
takes a more realistic picture.