Catena 147 (2016) 110–124

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Catena

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Soil erosion risk associated with climate change at Mantaro River basin,
Peruvian Andes
a b, c d e,1
Sly W. Correa , Carlos R. Mello , Sin C. Chou , Nilton Curi , Lloyd D. Norton
a Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
b Soil and Water Engineering, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, MG, Brazil
c Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais CPTEC/INPE, Brazil
d Soil Science Department, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, MG, Brazil
e Soil Science Graduate Program, Agronomy Department, Purdue University, United States

article info abstract

Article history: Soil degradation by water erosion has been accelerated by human activities. This process is aggravated in the Andes region
Received 12 June 2015 due to steep slopes, sparse vegetation cover, and sporadic but high intensity rainfall, which together with a shallow soil depth,
Received in revised form 29 June 2016 increases soil erosion risk. The objective of this study was to analyze the soil erosion risk, associated with A1B climate change
Accepted 5 July 2016 Available online
scenario over the twenty-first century, for the Mantaro River basin (MRB), Peruvian Andes. The temporal analyses revealed
xxxx
maintenance of current soil erosion risk along the twen-ty-first century in almost all the MRB, whose current risk is either
“very severe” or “extremely severe”. At the sub-basin level, for those located in the center and northern MRB, progressive
Keywords:
Soil erosion and degradation increases were observed in the average erosion rate by the end of this century, increasing the soil erosion risk. In sub-basins
Global warming under greater influence of the Andes, this risk was classified as “moderate” and remained this way throughout the century,
Tropical Andes despite the in-crease in rainfall erosive potential simulated for these. In annual terms, there was a signi ficant trend of
Soil erosion risk decreasing rainfall erosivity and increasing the concentration of rainfall simulated based on A1B climate change scenario. Be-
GIS cause the A1B scenario affects rainfall erosivity mainly during the rainy season, this causes a risk to the environ-mental
sustainability and future agricultural activities.

© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction resources in this region. The population of South America does not ex-ceed
10% of the world population, but according to FAO/UNESCO (1990), it is
According to the German Council on Global Change (WBGU, 1994), one of the richest regions in terms of natural resources, possessing 14% of
water erosion, is the most important type of soil degradation world-wide, arable land, 46% of tropical forests, 31% of water re-sources, and 50% of
covering approximately 1.1 billion hectares (56% of the agricultur-al areas of flora and fauna, worldwide.
the world). In addition, the international scientific community recognizes that “The Andes Cordillera” is located in the western South America,
soil erosion is a serious environmental problem; however, it is difficult to consisting of rugged mountains and very steep relief plateaus. The “Inter-
determine its magnitude as well as the economic and environmental Andean Valleys” are located among these mountains where agri-cultural
consequences, especially under possi-ble future climate changes. activity has been concentrated. Water erosion in these areas has become a
complex problem causing decrease on topsoil fertility. The present study was
According to Benites et al. (1993), soil erosion in Argentina, Bolivia, conducted at Mantaro River basin, one of the most productive Peruvian “Inter-
Brazil, Chile, and Paraguay is responsible for an average of 46% of the total Andean Valley” zones. According to the Geo-physical Institute of Peru (IGP,
extent of degraded soils by different erosion agents. According to the 2005), the Mantaro River is considered one of the most important rivers of the
Agricultural Land Development Agency of Japan (JALDA, 2003), ag- Peruvian Andes, due to its capac-ity for electricity generation, and agricultural
ricultural productivity in South America has been decreased due to soil and livestock production.
erosion, which has been accelerating the degradation of natural According to Amézquita et al. (1998), Peru is one of the Andean countries
that have presented various problems associated with ero-sion, wherein the
first attempt to assess its occurrence was done by Morales et al. (1977). Since
Corresponding author. then, there were the studies from Alegre et al. (1990) to Romero (2005);
E-mail addresses: [email protected] (S.W. Correa), [email protected] however, there has been a scarcity of re-search aimed at evaluating the
(C.R. Mello), [email protected] (S.C. Chou), [email protected] (N. Curi),
character of soil erosion in the country.
[email protected] (L.D. Norton).
1 Visiting researcher at Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, MG, Brazil – CNPq Accelerated climate change has been recorded in recent decades. Ac-
Scholarship. cording to the IPCC (2013), the last three decades have been

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 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124 111

successively warmer regarding the average global surface temperature. The and 76°40′30″W, with most of its area included into the Peruvian Trop-ical
increase on temperature has been verified across the planet and has been Andes, making up part of the Amazon River basin (Fig. 1a). MRB has a total
greatest at higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This warming trend 2
area of 34,544 km and has the highest population density of the “Sierra of
from 1956 to 2005 (0.13 [0.10–0.16] °C per decade) is nearly twice that Peru” (IGP, 2005). The Mantaro River is of great importance for the country
presented in the last 100 years (1906–2005). This in-dicates a clear as it produces 35% of all electric energy as well as its po-tential for
temperature increase trend in recent decades, with 2014 claiming to be the agricultural and livestock production.
warmest year since weather records began. In geomorphological terms, MRB is divided into agro-ecological re-gions,
Climate changes are causing more warming at more elevated regions than according to IGP (2005), whose names have origin in the Inca's language
at the lower ones due to snow cover loss, which leads to a reduction in albedo Quechua: “Janca” (“white” in reference to the permanent ice on the
and increase in solar radiation absorption at the surface (Giorgi et al., 1997). mountains), “Puna” (“evil that comes from the mountain”), “Suni” (“wide
Thus, according to Bradley et al. (2006) and Ramirez et al. (2001), several land”), “Quechua” (“temperate climate land”), “Yunga” (“hot valley”) and
modeling and projections studies indicate that many gla-ciers in lower “Selva Alta” (“high forest”) (Fig. 1d). Throughout the text, we have chosen to
altitudes of the Andes can disappear completely in the next 20 years, with the use the names from the original Quechua language to avoid misunderstanding
0 °C point displacement to higher altitudes. This situ-ation places Peru in a about their meanings. In addition to this agro-ecological division, MRB can
highly vulnerable condition, considering that 70% of the tropical mountain also be divided into sub-basins, as shown in Fig. 1c. The analyses of the
glaciers in the world are located in Peru. results will be presented on both spatial scales, agro-ecological regions and
The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), developed by Wischmeier and sub-basins, since different im-pacts may be caused given the different altitude
Smith (1978), was a pioneer model in an attempt to predict soil erosion, to conditions existing in MRB.
produce soil erosion risk mapping, and for supporting soil conservation
practices. Despite the empirical structure used in this model and in its re-vised Correa (2015) described MRB as part of the Amazon River basin, whose
version (RUSLE), the model has been applied to basins or regions that have main spring is in Lake Junín. The first river section flows from Lake Junín up
database restrictions for calibration and validation with other models which to the “Pongo de Pahuanca”. The second section flows from “Pongo de
are process based type (Beskow et al., 2009; Oliveira et al., 2014; Durães and Pahuanca” to the mouth in the Apurimac River, forming the Ene River. In this
Mello, 2014; Li et al., 2014; Tang et al., 2015). section, we have the main Peruvian hydroelectric facilities (“Santiago
The RUSLE model contains significant improvements in the estima-tion Antunez Mayolo” and “Restitución”), known as the “Mantaro Complex”.
of the passive factors associated with soil erosion, especially the to-pographic
factor, and has been applied to study the climate change impacts on soil
erosion (Segura et al., 2014; Mello et al., 2015). RUSLE is a parametric and 2.2. Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE)
empirical model, based on the most relevant vari-ables for the water erosion
process (Renard and Freimund, 1994). This model has been already tested and The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) is an empirical model to pre-
validated in various soil, climate, and agronomic management conditions dict the average annual soil loss generated by rainfall impact and shal-low
(Mitasova et al., 1996; Tiwari et al., 2000; Amore et al., 2004; Beskow et al., flow runoff. According to Farrish et al. (1993), the application of this equation
2009; Segura et al., 2014; Li et al., 2014; Oliveira et al., 2014; Tang et al., in steep slope areas has limitations. According to Hoyos (2005); Durães and
2015; Ochoa et al., 2016). Most of these studies have shown reasonable Mello (2014), Oliveira et al. (2014) and Mello et al. (2016) the RUSLE is a
performance in the qualitative characterization of the soil erosion risk, more suitable model for watersheds than USLE by providing fundamental
especially when it is integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS), revisions to characterize the LS topo-graphic factor. Thus, the main advantage
en-abling consistent improvements in its performance. Despite of limita-tions is related to adjust the topo-graphic factor for various slope conditions,
with RUSLE, it is possible to highlight a methodological evolution associated considering the contribution from upstream to downstream areas by means of
with the topographic factor estimates and the use of a map algebra tool to a flow accumulation map.
overlay the layers of the equation factors (Lu et al., 2004; Zhou et al., 2008;
Kouli et al., 2009; Beskow et al., 2009; Parveen and Kumar, 2012; Rodriguez The RUSLE is based on USLE equation, with reformulation of the to-
and Suarez, 2012; Segura et al., 2014; Tang et al., 2015). pographic factor estimates according to Renard et al. (1997):

A ¼ R K LS C P ð1Þ
This study aims at offering unique contribution to Mantaro river basin, a
typical basin located in the tropical Andes, whose glaciers are highly −1 −1
where: A is the average annual soil loss (t ha yr ), R is the average annual
vulnerable to climate change. The basin is part of the headwaters of the rainfall erosivity (MJ mm ha
−1
h
−1 −1
yr ), K is the soil erodibility factor (t h
largest river basin in the world, the Amazon River. Despite the dif-ficulty −1 −1
MJ mm ), LS corresponds to the dimensionless factors as-sociated with
recognized with some databases due to the lack of minimally in-vestigative
slope-length and slope-steepness, respectively, C and P are factors of
studies or hydro-climatic monitoring, the results of this study have significant vegetation cover and soil conservation practices, both dimensionless.
potential to motivate further studies and to alert on the water erosion problem
linked to climate change in one of the most sensitive regions of the world The soil erosion risk was classified according to the criteria adopted by Li
from both environmental and socio-economic points of view. et al. (2014) and Tang et al. (2015), which is shown in Table 1.

It is understood that the capacity of rain to generate erosion is the main 2.3. Rainfall erosivity behavior over the twenty-first century at the Mantaro
factor affected by climate change, and its simulation shows a rea-sonable River basin, Peruvian Andes
degree of acceptance (Nearing, 2001; Segura et al., 2014; Mello et al., 2015).
In this context, the objective of this study was to assess the soil erosion risk, In order to calculate rainfall erosivity (R-factor), precipitation data were
at the Mantaro river basin located in the Peruvian Andes. simulated with a temporal resolution of 3 h and the average monthly rainfall
were used, in a grid with a spatial resolution of 20 km covering the entire
2. Material and methods MRB, a total of 420 points (Fig. 1c). These datasets comprise the
downscaling to 20-km resolution from the global HadCM3 A1B emission
2.1. General characteristics of the Mantaro River basin, Peruvian Andes scenario. This is a dynamical downscaling done by the regional climate Eta-
CPTEC model over South America (Chou et al., 2014) for the period of
The Mantaro River basin (MRB) is located in central Peru, between the 1961–1990, considered as “present climate”, and for the periods of 2011–
latitudes 10°34′30″S and 13°35′30″S and longitudes 73°55′00″W 2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2099, known
112 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124

Fig. 1. Location of MRB in the Amazon River basin (a), in Peru (b), grid for downscaling with the ETA-CPTEC/HadCM3 model and sub-basins (c), and agro-ecological regions (d).

as future “time slices” and were available by the “Centro de Previsão do from the middle of this century) and development of efficient technol-ogies as
Tempo e Clima/Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espacias” (CPTEC/INPE) basic references.
(Chou et al., 2014). The climate change scenario, according to Nakicenovic et The Mantaro River Basin is located in a region of steep
al. (2000), describes a rapid economic growth, with little population growth
(it considers that the world population will decrease
topography and formed by narrow valleys. The use of high
spatial and temporal res-olution simulations of climate is
appropriate in order to capture the
 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124 113

Table 1 However, the R-factor would be underestimated, as maximum in-tensity

Soil erosion risk classification based on average erosion rate estimated by in 3 h is less than 30-minute intensity, as originally recognized by Wischmeier
RUSLE (Li et al., 2014; Tang et al., 2015).
and Smith (1978). Thus, it is necessary to apply a com-plementary
Soil loss (A) methodology for estimation of this factor. However, there are no weather
−1 −1 Erosion risk
(t ha year ) stations with historical series in MRB to enable the study of rainfall erosivity
b5 Very low following its original concept. In this context, we applied a relationship
5–25 Low
existing between the Modified Fourier Index (MFIm), calculated with basis on
25–50 Moderate
50–80 Severe
the average monthly rainfall for each time slice, and the average monthly
80–150 Very severe rainfall erosivity (Eq. 6). This equation was proposed by Sonder et al. (2002)
N150 Extremely severe for the Colombian Andes and it was applied in this study because of similar
geomorpholog-ical conditions between the two studied regions (both in
Tropical Andes Cordillera).
precipitation distribution in more detail. Precipitation has received con-
tribution from local orographic effects which have been presented in a coarse
resolution. The 20-km resolution Eta model simulations were the highest 0:552
Rm ¼ 161 ðMF ImÞ ð6Þ
resolution of future climate change projections available at three-hour interval
for the region. This higher temporal frequency is suitable to capture heavy
Thus, for each climate simulation grid point (Fig. 1c), the R-factor was
rainfall rates. In addition, the approximately horizontal surfaces of the vertical
calculated based on the average between the values generated by Eqs. 5 and 6.
coordinate of the Eta model is suitable to resolve the air circulation around
Having estimated the R-factor for each time slice and for each one of the 420
steep mountains such as the Andes Cordillera, as shown by Figueroa et al.
points, R-factor maps were generated based on a geostatistical approach by
(1995). The simulations of the present climate produced by the 20-km
ordinary kriging.
resolution Eta-HadCM3 have shown to capture better the extreme rainfall
values, as improvement over the coarser available dataset. This downscaling In order to analyze the behavior of rainfall erosivity (EI 3h) over time, the
at 20-km has been applied to assess the impacts of climate change on the Mann-Kendall test (Mann, 1945) was applied to statistically analyze if there
Brazilian hydropower production (Lima et al., 2014). is significant trend in these data throughout the century. Fur-thermore, the
Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) for MRB was also evaluated for this
It is important to highlight that to estimate the R-factor to run RUSLE it is purpose, since it reveals the behavior of rainfall concentration, especially
necessary long-term rainfall series, at least 20 years (Mello et al., 2013). In important for regions with seasonal or semi-arid climate. Its original concept
was developed by Oliver (1980) in an attempt to define the temporal
this study, it was taken into account time series of 30 years be-tween 1961 and
variability of rainfall distribution. The theoretical limits range from 8.3
1990, in order to estimate more representative values of R-factor.
(uniform pluvial regime) to 100, if the rainfall is concentrated in a month
(irregular pluvial regime). Ac-cording to Mello et al. (2015), the PCI is
The R-factor calculation was based on the EI 3h factor since the lowest
important for analysis of erosive potential of rain, since it can characterize a
temporal resolution simulated was 3 h. For this, the following variables were
more active dynamic effect of climate change on erosive potential of rainfall,
analyzed: event duration, accumulated precipitation in the event, average
being a complementa-ry index. Its calculation is given by:
rainfall intensity per event, rainfall energy per depth of rain, total energy of
the rain, and maximum intensity of rain in 3 consecutive hours. Thus, the
following equations were applied for EI3h calculation (Wischmeier and Smith, 12
1978): X
pi2
−1 PCIð%Þ ¼ i¼1 100 ð7Þ
Ec ¼ 0:1191 þ 0:0873 Log10 It Itb76 mm h ð2Þ 12
!
2

−1
pi
Ec ¼ 0:283 ItN76 mm h ð3Þ i¼1

−1 −1 where: pi is the precipitation of the month i, in mm, obtained on the basis of

where Ec is the rainfall energy per hectare-mm (MJ ha mm ) and It is the
−1 the weather simulations.
average rainfall intensity (mm h ). The total energy of rainfall during the
−1
period of the storm (Et), in MJ ha , is calculated using the following 2.4. Soil map to determine K-factor for MRB, Peruvian Andes
relationship:
The Leptosols, which predominate in the studied region, are very stony,
Et ¼ Ec P ð4Þ
can be dystrophic (base saturation b 50%) or eutrophic (base sat-uration ≥
50%), have average clay content of 23% and tend to occur mainly in slopes
where: P is the total amount of rain in the event, in mm. varying from 20 to 50% (IGP, 2005). The association of shallow soils and
The R-factor, described by Renard and Freimund (1994), consists of the hilly topography results in very fragile and unstable systems and therefore,
average annual sum of the individual values EI30’ over long periods of time highly vulnerability to erosion.
(minimum 15 years for USLE or RUSLE application). For the con-ditions of The Regosols in this region are medium textured (average clay con-tent of
this study, R-factor was considered, in a first moment, as the average annual 20%), deeper than the Leptosols and occur in various topographic positions
sum of the individual EI3h values, as applied by Vrieling et al. (2010). Thus, (IGP, 2005). They constitute relatively more stable system in comparison with
we have: the Leptosols, with better infiltration capacity (IGP, 2005). They have limited
n m
! agricultural potential, but are effective in groundwater recharge (IGP, 2005).
ðE3hÞi ðI3hÞi
XX The Cambisols, situated at the eastern part of the MRB, are very stony in
the surface, medium textured (average clay content of 17%) and gen-erally
j
R¼ j¼1 i¼1 ð5Þ occur in slopes ranging from 50 to 100% (IGP, 2005). In addition, they are
n
characterized by a shallow depth. Thus, the Cambisols in MRB are very
−1 susceptible to erosion. The natural soil fertility is very low, sometimes with
where: R is expressed in MJ mm (ha h year) , m is the number of in-dividual
high aluminum saturation.
precipitation events in a given year j, and n is the number of years evaluated,
in the present case, 30 years (time slices).
 114 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124

The Ministry of Agriculture of Peru (MINAG, 1978) developed an 2.5. LS-factor for MBR, Peruvian Andes
edaphologic study in areas with good agricultural potential in MRB, known as
“Mantaro River Agricultural Valley” (MRAV). This zone has appropriate soils The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is the basic reference for studies re-
and climatic characteristics for agricultural activity, it is located in the middle lated to the LS-factor. For the MRB, the DEM was based on “Shuttle Radar
part of the basin, with altitudes ranging from 3200 to 3800 m and topography Topographic Mission” images (NASA/SRTM), with a spatial resolution of 30
varying from flat to undulate with smooth gradients of average magnitude, m, and is presented in Fig. 3a, as well as average annual rainfall isohyets.
and an annual rainfall varying between 670 and 895 mm. This study ranked Authors such as Moore and Wilson (1992), Hickey et al. (1994), Bolton et
the MRAV soils into six groups and different sub-groups. Fig. 2a presents the al. (1995), Desmet and Govers (1996), Mitasova et al. (1996) and Biesemans
soil map in groups and sub-groups for MRAV and Fig. 2b, the soil map for (1997) developed flow algorithms based on DEMs to deter-mine the
MRB applied in this study. accumulated surface flow length, and therefore, the LS-factor. These new
relationships based on the Unit Stream Power Theory include the influence of
Tables 2, 3 and 4 show, respectively, particle size distribution and or-ganic flow convergence and divergence. Thus, the use of algo-rithms associated
soil matter values for MRAV soils, permeability and soil structure codes, with Geographical Information System (GIS), for calcu-lating the LS factor,
which allows to an estimate of the K-factor based on the follow-ing equations is a great improvement for RUSLE application.
(Wischmeier and Smith, 1978). Mitasova et al. (1996) developed an equation for estimating the LS-factor
with supporting of a GIS, which was applied by Pelton et al. (2012) and
1:14 ‐4
Ashiagbor et al. (2013), incorporating the impact from flow convergence,
½ð2:1 M 10 ð12−SOMÞ þ 3:25 ðs −2Þ þ 2:5 ðp−3Þ& replacing the slope length (L) by the upstream tribu-tary area per unit of
100 width. The area contribution concept requires the generation of a cumulative
0:1318 ð8Þ flow map. For each pixel, the slope, the flow direction and the amount of
accumulated flow lines upstream of that pixel, are calculated. Thus, the
methodology applied in this study to obtain the LS-factor based on DEM was
−1 −1
where: K is the soil erodibility factor (t·h·MJ ·mm ); SOM corre-sponds to that developed by Pelton et al. (2012), with the support of map algebra, thus
the soil organic matter content (%); s is the soil structure code; p is the soil allowing the applica-tion of the equation developed by Mitasova et al. (1996):
permeability code; and M is the factor calculated as the product of the soil
particle size fractions between 0.002 and 0.1 mm, by the following equation:
m n
LS ¼ ðm þ 1Þ ðFlowaccumulationÞ ðCellsizeÞ sinð SlopeÞ
22:13 0:0896
M ¼ ½100−%clay& ½%silt þ %veryfinesand& ð9Þ
ð10Þ

Fig. 2. Soil map in groups and sub-groups for MRAV (a) and the soil map for MRB, Peruvian Andes (b).
 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124 115
Table 2 Table 4

Particle size distribution (%) and SOM (%) for MRAV soils. Soil structure codes.
Source: MINAG (1978).
Size limits
Series Group Sub-group Sand Clay Silt SOM Code Structure class (mm)
Huancayo Hn 1 III a 51.8 15.2 33.0 2.0 4 Platy, prismatic, columnar, blocky and very coarse N10
Chamiseria Cha2 VI a 34.8 23.2 42.0 4.3 granular
Azapampa Aa 3 VI d 24.8 30.2 45.0 3.0 3 Medium and coarse granular 2–10
Palian Pl 4 VI d 50.8 14.2 35.0 2.2 2 Fine granular 1–2
San Pedro Pd 5 IV a 66.8 10.2 23.0 1.9 1 Very fine granular b1
Sapallanga Sp6 III a 50.8 17.2 32.0 1.7
Maravilca Mi 7 I c 58.8 8.2 33.0 1.1
Huayao Ha 8 IV a 40.8 18.2 41.0 3.4 Estimation of the average annual C factor was conducted based on the
Huayna Capac Hc 9 VI d 60.8 9.2 30.0 2.9
description of different types of vegetation existing in MRB, which are shown
Apata Ap 10 III b 70.8 4.2 25.0 1.1
Huacho He 11 VI c 22.8 26.2 51.0 6.1 in Fig. 3d. Table 5 shows the land uses and C factor values adopted for MRB
Huachac Hua 12 IV c 47.2 22.6 30.2 3.2 based on published research.
Pilcomayo Py 15 I a 26.6 46.4 27.0 2.3 According to McCool et al. (1987), the P-factor is less reliable and
Seco Se 16 III a 38.6 14.4 47.0 1.5 represents how the surface influences the hydraulic flow and it was in-
Yanamuclo Ym 17 III a 37.0 23.4 39.6 2.1
San Jerónimo Je 18 III a 52.6 17.8 29.6 2.1
corporated to the model to reflect the soil conservation edaphic and me-
Hualhuas Hs 19 III a 47.4 19.0 33.6 2.3 chanical practices. In MRB, there is no reference about conservation practices
Huamancaca Hu 20 I a 30.2 39.4 30.4 1.1 that have been adopted, besides the fact that in most of the basin, extensive
Ahuac Ah 21 V b 26.6 37.8 35.6 1.2 grazing is prevalent. Thus, in this study, the most criti-cal value (1) was
Mantaro Ma 22 II b 60.8 9.2 30.0 3.6
adopted, which means no conservation practices, MRAV included.
Chicche Chi 23 VI a 40.6 13.2 46.2 6.4
Orcotuna Or 25 I a 30.6 29.4 40.0 3.0
Chupaca Chu 26 III c 31.6 33.4 35.0 2.3
Pancan Pn 27 III a 24.8 30.2 45.0 1.9
Paucar Pr 28 V c 31.8 23.3 44.9 4.6 3. Results and discussion
Jauja Ja 29 IV b 8.8 42.2 49.0 1.1
Yauli Ya 30 III b 46.8 19.2 34.0 1.6
3.1. Spatial and temporal behavior of rainfall erosivity in MRB, Peruvian Andes
Huertas Hr 31 III a 39.8 21.2 39.0 1.4
Mito Mo 32 II b 30.0 15.5 54.5 1.6
La Libertad Ll 40 IV b 31.7 25.2 43.1 4.6 Maps of the R-factor and for the spatial differences between consec-utive
Sicaya Si 42 III e 46.7 21.2 32.1 2.1 time slices were made and they allow to verify how the R-factor behaviors
Concepción Co 48 VI a 42.8 19.2 38.0 2.9 throughout the 21st Century, which means how the rainfall erosion power will
Quispic Qu 49 V a 38.8 18.5 42.7 1.5
Jallanna Jm 50 III b 55.8 15.2 29.0 3.2
be affected by the climate changes according to A1B scenario and the
Lunahuaná Lu 51 VI a 58.8 17.2 24.0 5.9 HadCM3-ETA/CPTEC model simulation. These maps are presented in Fig. 4
Cunas Cu 52 III e 53.8 17.2 29.0 6.4 (a – present climate; b - 2011–2040; c - 2041–2070; d - 2071–2099). For the
Palias Pa 53 VI e 66.8 7.2 26.0 4.0 present climate, there is a trend of higher R-factor in MRB's central and
San Luis Ls 54 VI e 52.8 9.2 38.0 5.6 northwest regions, although there are zones with greater values in the east, as
in the agro-ecological region “Selva Alta”. R-factor values were sub-divided
−1
into ranges, predominating values between 1500 and 2000 MJ mm (ha h y)
−1
where: [Flow Accumulation] · [Cell size] corresponds to the upstream for MRB, although there are regions with values N2500 MJ mm (ha h y) ,
tributary area per unit of width (m); (Slope) is the slope in degrees; m and n especially in the central zone of the basin (“Yunga”, “Que-chua” and “Puna”
are empirical coefficients that depend on flow type, for which we used the agro-ecological regions). In a sub-basin spatial con-text, the highest simulated
values 0.4 and 1.4, respectively (De Kort, 2013). Fig. 3b pre-sents the slope values are associated with sub-basins (from 12 to 19, see Fig. 1c) located in
map and Fig. 3c, the accumulated flow for MRB, which corresponds to the the eastern central region. Howev-er, the greatest rainfall erosive potential was
base maps for obtaining the LS-factor. According to De Kort (2013), the simulated for the Viscatan sub-basin (№ 22, located in “Selva Alta” agro-
RUSLE model, based on this approach for the LS-fac-tor, is classified as ecological region), which can be explained based on the warmer and moist
“RUSLE3D”. weather of this agro-ecological region (altitude b2000 m), which is within
Amazon rainforest region (Mello et al., 2013). Analyzing the sequence of
maps in Fig. 4, it is clear a prediction of R-factor reduction over the century
2.6. C- and P-factors determination for MRB, Peruvian Andes throughout most of MRB, showing a rainfall erosive power reduction trend if
an annual time scale is to be considered.
The C-factor refers to the effect of cover on the reduction of soil ero-sion.
Thus, in RUSLE, it has values between zero (0) and one (1), and the latter
corresponds to areas without vegetation (bare soils). With the in-crease of Evaluating the R-factor behavior to consecutive spatial differences
vegetation density, the C value tends to decrease, reducing the effect of between time slices, it can be seen that the sub-basins “Santa Ana”, “Alloc
rainfall drops on the ground. Huarco” and “Youli” (№ 5, 6 and 7 -. Fig. 1c) showed a trend of

Table 3
Soil permeability codes.

Code Classification Particle size distribution Saturated hydraulic conductivity (cm/h)

6 Very slow Silty clay, clay b0.125
5 Slow Silty, clay loamy, sandy clay 0.125–0.5
4 Moderately slow Sandy clay loam, clay loam 0.5–2.0
3 Moderate Loam, silt loam 2.0–6.0
2 Moderately fast Sandy clay, sandy loam 6.0–12.5
1 Very fast Sand N12.5
116 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124

Fig. 3. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) (a), maps of slope (b), accumulated flow (c) and land use (d) for MRB, Peruvian Andes.
 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124 117
Table 5

Land use and the respective C-factor values for MRB.

Land use Reference Plant cover Coverage % C-factor

Agricultural Land Delgado and Vasques (1997) 0.45
Agriculture/Secondary Woods Delgado and Vasques (1997) 0.93
Wetland IGP (2005) Herbaceous plants 80 0.12
Wet Mountain Grove IGP (2005) 75–40, 90–70 NC 0.20
Wet Temperate Scrubland IGP (2005) Scrubland 60 0.38
Semiarid Temperate Scrubland IGP (2005) Scrubland 40 0.90
Semi-hot Sub-humid Scrub IGP (2005) Scrubland 60 0.38
Sub-humid Temperate Scrub IGP (2005) Scrubland 20 0.20
Nival (glacial) IGP (2005) 1.00
High Andean Grassland IGP (2005) Herbaceous plants 20 0.00
Tundra IGP (2005) Herbaceous plants 40 0.30

consecutive R-factor increases over the twenty-first century, being more greater altitude. This effect has been increasingly intensified in areas of
expressed in the most recent time slices. “Cunas” sub-basin (№ 13 – Fig. 1c), tropical glaciers around the world, mainly in tropical Andes.
showed a decrease in the transition from present climate for the first time slice The largest decreases between consecutive periods of rainfall erosive
(Fig. 5a, b); however, from the latter until the end of the century, there are potential take place in the transition from the present climate for the first time
consecutive increases which are N10% in relation to the present climate. The slice (2010–2040), except for “Janca” agro-ecological region and in the
significant increase in R-factor values for the Northern, passing through the mentioned sub-basins located in the northern MRB (Fig. 5b). “Selta Alta”
Central and Southwestern MRB, from the second to the third time slices, with region (precisely Viscatan sub-basin) presents the greatest reduction (9%
impacts on “Ichu” (№ 21), “Huarpa” (№ 23), “Achamayo” (№ 12), “Shullcas” lower than that observed to present climate). Moreover, for MRB as a whole
o and also for “Sunni”, “Quechua” and “Yunga” regions, there were greater
(n 14) and “Viscatan” (№22) sub-basins, is also noteworthy. These sub-
basins pre-sented this increase in behavior compared to other areas of MRB decreases in R-factor relative to the present climate by the end of the century,
since in a large area of the MRB, such as the south central, had consecutive although at a slower rate when analyzing the last two time slices. However, in
R-fac-tor reductions. This prevailing trend of gradual erosive potential reduc- “Janca”, “Puna” and, more consistently, in “Selva Alta” agro-ecological
tion throughout the century is mainly due to a reduction of the total regions, there is an increase of the rainfall erosive potential in the last time
precipitation across the basin, simulated based on the A1B climate change slice (2071–2098) compared to the previous one, similar to that which was
scenario by Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 model. found for the sub-basins in the northern of MRB.

Soil erosion in the highest mountains of the planet can be generated not A temporal trend analysis of annual rainfall erosivity given by EI 3h and
only by the rainfall (water erosion) but also by the snowfall accumu-lated PCI indexes, for MRB as a whole, given by the average of all simula-tion grid
over the ground, which includes avalanches and snow gliding phe-nomena. points, is important to demonstrate if these indexes will pres-ent significant
Both active factors have been little studied due to the difficulty to implement trend (positive or negative) throughout the 21st Century. For that, trend
experimental areas for field monitoring. Meusburger et al. (2014) studied the graphics were developed and Mann-Kendall test was ap-plied for the cited
snow gliding erosion by monitoring a watershed in the Swiss Alpes along variables (Fig. 6). A negative and significant statistical trend by the Mann-
with application of the RUSLE model. As we know, RUSLE is capable of Kendall (M-K) test at a significance level of 5% (z = −3.68) was obtained.
estimating erosion caused by raindrops. The cited authors obtained a very The opposite behavior could be found for PCI. The temporal series for PCI
good correlation between the snow glid-ing erosion and the results estimated showed a significant upward trend, ac-cording to M-K test (z = 3.88). Thus,
by RUSLE, demonstrating that al-though this model had not been designed there is a clear declining trend in annual rainfall erosivity in MRB based at an
for running by other active factors, like snow or wind, its outputs have been annual scale. However, it ap-pears that there is an increase of its variability
plausible for both pat-tern and quantitative soil losses. over time, especially from the second time slice, which is an important feature
of the climate change effects on rainfall patterns. Beyond this, the statistically
Meusburger et al. (2014) carried out their study in a temperate signifi-cant increase in PCI shows an important increase of erosive potential
mountainous watershed, in which snowfall is responsible for 30% of an-nual during the rainy season of the year, as was reported for southeastern Brazil by
precipitation. For Peruvian Andes, a tropical high mountain system, the Mello et al. (2015). In addition, the concentration of rainfall can mean an
snowfall is much lesser than in the Alpes and the climate simula-tions increase in erosive power during the rainy season or even for isolated
demonstrated that the climate in MRB over the 21st century tends to become precipitation events, including the sub-basins, with a marked reduction in
drier than nowadays. This means that soil erosion caused by snow gliding or rainfall erosivity. These considerations need to be jointly analyzed when it
avalanches in this basin, in the future, has low probability of occurrence. comes to the climate change impacts on the rainfall erosive power, as there is
Thus, the RUSLE model is the most indi-cated tool for estimating soil erosion considerable uncertainty associated with these indicators under the influence
behavior in MRB for the present and future climates as the main active factor of global warming.
for soil erosion in this basin is the rainfall.

R-factor to present climate and simulated time slices for each agro- 3.2. Spatial distribution of RUSLE passive factors for MRB, Peruvian Andes
ecological regions and sub-basins were quantified as well as the consec-utive
percentage differences throughout the 21st Century. These data were In this topic, it is presented the spatial distribution of RUSLE passive
presented in column graphics allowing to compare numerically the regions elements, beginning with the LS-factor, which was developed with basis on
and sub-basins throughout the 21st Century (Fig. 5). The sub-basins that were RUSLE3D for MRB. The greatest values of this factor are in the east-central
more affected were at higher altitudes, such as those located in the north (№ 1 region of the basin (Fig. 7a), specifically in “San Fernando”, “Pariahuanca”,
to 9, Fig. 1c), presented an increasing R-factor trend. This behavior is related “Huanchuy”, “Paraiso”, “Viscatan” sub-basins and in the southern part of
to the increase in total precipita-tion with the intensification of global “Microcuencas” sub-basin (see Fig. 1c). In terms of the percentage area of
warming and the increase of the permanent ice cap melting rate, moving the MRB, LS-factor range from 5 to 50, representing 58% of the basin area. The
freezing line (0 °C) to a values corresponding to the average and
118 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124

Fig. 4. R-factor
map for the present climate (a) and spatial behavior of the changes for consecutive time slices (b, c, d)
simulated for the XXI century in MRB, Peruvian Andes.
 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124 119

Fig. 5. Rainfall erosive potential (R-factor) for MRB agro-ecological regions and sub-basins, in Peruvian Andes, throughout the twenty- first century (a), and its variation in relation to the previous
period (b).

median are, respectively, 24.34 and 13.07. Based on this map, the MRB is sediment transport (Wischmeier and Smith, 1978). For these condi-tions,
highly vulnerable to soil erosion, since this factor determines runoff conservation linked to land use and surface protection are keys to reducing
conditions, especially its speed and hydraulic capacity of channels for the soil erosion risk.

Fig. 6. Temporal distribution of annual rainfall erosive potential (EI 3h) (a) and of the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) (b) for MRB, Peruvian Andes, throughout the 21st century.
120 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124

Fig. 7. Maps of LS-factor (a), K-factor (MRB highlighting MRAV soils) (b) and CP-factor (c) for MRB, Peruvian Andes.

The K-factor map, which demonstrates the natural soil vulnerability to MRB. It is possible to observe that the MRAV region has relatively higher
water erosion, was also developed. Based on this map, we can see the sub- values, estimated based on the weighted average of the production areas of
basins and agroecological regions of MRB with greater vulnerability to the Valley and throughout the year as the land-uses are mostly tubers,
erosion based on the soil erodibility. This kind information is impor-tant as it vegetables and cereals, and thus, greater exposure of soils throughout much of
helps supporting decision-making related to the soil use and management. the year. In sub-basins located at higher altitudes of MRB there are relatively
This map is shown in Fig. 7b for MRB, with a zoom for MRAV. Its values lesser values (0.13 to 0.2), as predominant land uses are “Tundra” and “High
vary from zero (water bodies) to 0.095, the latter cal-culated for MRAV soils Andean Grassland”, which are herba-ceous plant and grass vegetation with a
where there is a predominance of values N0.055. In most part of MRB, the good ability to mitigate raindrop impact, reducing the vulnerability of soil to
values are lesser than 0.045, which were esti-mated according to soil erosion. It was also observed that at higher altitudes of western MRB, there
information recommended by FAO-PNUMA-UNESCO (1980)and are greater CP-factor values, in which small sized vegetation is associated
FAO/UNESCO (1990), based on the main soils prop-erties (IGP, 2005). The with reduced bio-mass accumulation due to low temperatures that restrict
previously soils information for MRB include soils with texture ranging from vegetation de-velopment, and, consequently, reduce soil protection against
medium to sandy, shallow, and low natural fertility, indicating high raindrop impact.
vulnerability to erosion, mainly for Leptosols and Cambisols, which occupy
predominantly Yunga and Puna agroeco-logical regions, and San Fernando's
neighborhood sub-basins. However, it is important to emphasize the
qualitative differences between the da-tabases available for MRB soils in 3.3. Soil erosion risk maps for MRB under climate change impacts, Peruvian
relation to those available for MRAV. The latter provided much more Andes
information concerning soil erodibility.
CP-factor is another RUSLE passive element very important to un- Using map algebra, RUSLE3D was run over the MRB comparing the R-
derstand the vulnerability of the basin to water erosion as it becomes clear factor layer for the present climate to the 3 time slices simulated based on
how the soils have been currently used, and helps to explain the greatest part A1B climate change scenario (Fig. 8). An average of 48.5% of areas with
of the soil erosion rates estimated by the RUSLE. Its spatial distribution is could
erosion risk were classified as “Very Severe” and “Extremely Severe”
presented in the map of the Fig. 7c. In this map, the values range from zero
(0) for water bodies where there is no erosion, to one (1) for bare soils, as can
be found with the simulations, both in MRB and in MRAV,
be observed in areas in the east and south of demonstrating that the basin is highly vulnerable to soil
erosion for the present climate conditions. Areas with greater
erosion risk were located
 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124 121

Fig. 8. Soil erosion risk maps for MRB for the present climate (a) and for the simulated time slices (2010–2040 - b; 2041 to 2070 – c; 2071–2098 - d).
122 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124

in the east-central part of the basin, which had the greatest R-factor (Fig. 4a), The results obtained in this study produced a spatial view, on region-al
LS-factor (Fig. 7a), and significant bare-soil areas (Fig. 7c). and sub-basin scales, of the dynamics of soil loss by water erosion in MRB to
Only a small percentage of the MRB were simulated to increase over the the end of the 21st century. Soil erosion risk could be assessed based on A1B
current soil erosion risk due to possible climate changes, having been climate change scenario simulated by Eta-CPETC/ HadCM3model. However,
estimated with increments of 0.3%, 3.9% and 7.4% of the MRB area for time it is noted that the climate change impacts were analyzed only in the context
slices 2010–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2098, respective-ly. The areas that of the active erosion factor (rainfall) and that the other factors were not
had simulated increase over past soil erosion risk were associated with “Vilca” changed because of the difficulty of designing realistic land use scenarios
sub-basin, and lower parts of the “Yauli”, “Santa Ana” and “Atoc Huarco” sub- along the 21st century, since there are no master plans and/or ecological-
basins (see Fig. 1c), as a result of consecu-tive increases in the rainfall erosive economic zoning for the basin or even for the Peru. In addition, the
potential in these sub-basins (Fig. 4). agricultural suitability in the basin is associated with extensive grazing and it
is very unlikely that a major change, in spatial terms, will occur within this
A continuous decrease can be seen in the average annual soil loss until the land use context. Beyond this aspect, we need to highlight that the
end of the century in all agro-ecological regions and sub-ba-sins, except for pedological database is not, in qualitative terms, homogeneous throughout
“Selva Alta”, which in the last period had a slight increase of the risk MRB, with MRAV being the only region of the basin with better information
compared to the previous period (Fig. 9a, b). As mentioned, almost all the gathered at the field level. Thus, the K-factor associated with the soil erosion
MRB, for the present climate, presents an “extremely se-vere” risk for erosion. vulnerability does not provide the degree desired for reliability since it was
However, spatially, there are important behavior-al differences. In the context inferred based on soil information from FAO tables. In addition, the R-factor
of agro-ecological regions, “Janca”, “Quechua”, “Yunga” and “Selva Alta” also anal-ysis may have a considerable estimation error, although the general trend
have this same risk rating, while “Suni” and “Puna” have a “very severe” risk. has been captured based on the A1B scenario, indicating de-creased rainfall
Examining the results at the sub-basin level, those located in the northern erosive power. The uncertainty associated with the R-factor is linked also to
MRB (“Ichu”, “San Juan”, “Conocancha”, “Quisualcancha” and the fact that there is no satisfactory pluviographic database for the basin,
“Chinchaycocha”) have a predicted “severe” risk, while “Colorado” sub-basin which would allow establishing a more reliable relationship between rainfall
has a “moderate” risk for current climate. These sub-basins are those for erosivity and other indicators related to the precipitation behavior.
which the least erosion risk was found, both for the present and for the future;
however, this was mainly linked to the behavior of CP-factor, which is low
for these sub-basins where the land use is predominantly dominated by tundra Other passive factors (soil cover and cultivation practices) also will be
(Fig. 7c). For sub-basins in eastern MRB (“Huanchuy”, “Pariahuanca”, “San impacted by climate change; however, the identification and espe-cially the
Fernando”, “Shullcas”, “Upamayu” and “Microcuencas”), the erosion risk was measurement over the long-term of these factors are very un-certain.
classified as “extremely severe” for both present climate and throughout the According to Mello et al. (2015), the following question stand out in that
21st century, which was mainly associated with the LS- and CP-factors. regard: what are the effects of increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration on
Overall, the main soils in these sub-basins are the Leptosols (Fig. 2b) and the physiological behavior of plants and their impacts on land cover? Also,
considering their low effective depth, low natural soil fertility and very what land use scenarios are possible for the MRB without having direct plans
undulated to mountainous slopes, it is easy to understand their high erosion and ecological-economic and/or agro-cli-matological zoning? In addition,
suscep-tibility. In the sub-basins “Achamayo”, “Yacuy” and “Paraíso”, the cur- what are the impacts on mineralization of soil organic matter and biota and
rent risk is “extremely severe”, but throughout the century, it is reduced to their effects on the soils susceptibil-ity to erosion? It can be seen that the
“very severe”, because of the effect of rainfall erosion poten-tial reduction in interaction of all these factors makes future prediction highly complex and
these sub-basins. uncertain. Even facing these problems mentioned, the present work consists
of a pioneering effort for the Peruvian Andes and for the tropical Andes as it
brings a

Fig. 9. Average annual soil loss distribution for agro-ecological regions (a) and sub-basins of MRB (b) and their respective
variations in relation to the previous time slice (c, d).
 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124 123

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