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Zoya Mirza

SS 100, Section 16

21 December 2016

Brexit: Britain on the Verge of a Dire Mistake

Ever since the Age of Enlightenment, Europe has been seen as a breeding ground for

liberal thoughts and ideas, allowing the triumph of reason over tradition. Liberal thought has

historically entailed the ethics of pluralist values, open-mindedness, and multiculturalism. These

principles laid down the foundation for humanitarian and economic cooperation. The case of

Britain wanting to exit the European Union (EU) is particularly alarming in this context because

a country that has been so pivotal in disseminating progressive thought, now wishes to detach

itself from a union that stands for those values. While Britain can potentially benefit from not

having to pay exorbitant membership fees to the EU on a weekly basis, the drawback of losing

access to the European market is a cost that is enormous. Brexit is an abbreviation for British exit

from the EU (Hunt and Wheeler). The proponents of Brexit endorsed leaving the EU because

they wanted to redirect the membership fees to other avenues, and gain absolute control over

migration policies. A polarizing referendum was held on 23 June 2016 in which the Leave

campaign was victorious after collecting 51.9 per cent of the votes (Electoral Commission).

These results have highlighted an upsurge in nationalism, protectionism, and populism due to the

rejuvenation of far-right politics across the world; Donald J. Trump in the United States of

America, the Five Star Alliance in Italy, Podemos in Spain, and the Front National in France are

examples of this phenomenon (Pettifor 131). One can actively scrutinize Brexit to understand the
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nationalist mode of thinking that is currently widespread across the nation, and it is potentially

the most significant as it might set a worrying precedent for other nations to follow suit, since

similar movements have gripped public attention in Italy, France, and Scotland. Although

leaving the European Union might appear to be a democratic decision, Brexit could potentially

be harmful in the long-run as the results of the referendum were skewed by a manipulative Leave

campaign, Britain’s trade links might diminish resulting in the stagnation of economic growth,

and it could lead to an alarming rate of unemployment for migrants that will be galvanized by

intolerance.

The premise for Britain to go ahead with Brexit is the referendum. Despite it being a

democratic process that represents the will of the people, the polarisation and complexities in this

scenario are far too great to be ignored. The Leave campaign garnered support via means of

manipulation and by taking advantage of the strife that was present amongst the masses due to

the polarization of wealth, a decline in wages, and insufficient attention being given to the health

and education sector. The core principles of the campaign were centered on directing 350 million

pounds to the National Health Service (NHS) instead of the EU and implementing a stricter

migration policy through a points-based system. These claims were used to substantiate the

nationalist thought that was being disseminated by the officials who were spearheading Brexit.

After a favorable result in the referendum, two of the main figures of the campaign, Nigel Farage

and Boris Johnson, reneged on the promises they had made. When asked about the funding

pledge on ITV’s Good Morning Britain program, Nigel Farage responded by saying that he

could not guarantee it and he admitted that it was one of the mistakes the Leave campaign had

made (Stone). Boris Johnson had proposed the adoption of a points-based system to curb the

problem of immigration which he considered to be “completely out of control.” After British

Prime Minister Theresa May disapproved of this policy, Boris abandoned his plans (Merrick).

The Leave advocates backtracked on two claims which were the focal points of their campaign,

and this shows how the opinion of the population was swayed through propaganda and

manipulation—without the guarantee of an inevitable shift in policy. Moreover, during their

campaign, there was no mention of the benefits of the EU and this led to citizens making

uninformed decisions during the voting process. Voters were urged to “take back control” as

rhetoric was used instead of reason in order to persuade people to vote in favour of leaving

(ITV). A Sky News programme questioned prominent Leave campaigner Michael Gove about

Brexit in light of criticism by countries that form the Group of 7 (G7) bloc, financial institutions,

and think-tanks—to which he responded by saying that the people “have had enough of the

experts” (Deacon). His response encapsulates the neglect that has been shown by the

campaigners towards logic. The arguments of the Leave campaigners concerning the NHS and

immigration in particular were “cloaked in jingoistic nationalism” (D’Souza 20). By utilizing

propaganda as a primary means of persuasion, the Leave campaign completely ignored some of

the negative consequences of leaving the EU. These consequences will most notably affect their

economy in the long-run because of a lack of stability.

Brexit could directly affect the existing trade links Britain has with member states which

might cause the stagnation of economic growth. Before analyzing the impact of a withdrawal on

Britain’s economy, it is important to be cognizant of the role of the union in stimulating

economies. The EU fosters economic cooperation, encourages trade, and promotes

interdependence through the regulation of the European Single Market in which no barriers to

trade or the movement of labour and capital exist (European Union). Since its formation, the EU

has become bigger than any individual economy across the globe. Its ascendancy cultivates
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economic growth which is an important macroeconomic goal for every government, and

economic integration with neighbouring countries leads to the achievement of that target. Britain

reaps the benefits of this union which positively impacts their economy. Moreover, it is heavily

reliant on the European Single Market with regards to trade and has greatly prospered because of

its existence. Britain should ideally be working towards increased economic integration with the

EU instead of opting out because 44.6 per cent of their exports go to member states and 53.2 per

cent of their imports are from member states (The National Archives). Due to this web of

interdependence, Brexit will also negatively affect the states that are mutually dependent on

Britain. The impact this decision will have on the global economy is a cause for concern which

was indicated in a joint declaration by the G7 bloc. The declaration stated that Brexit would

“reverse the trend towards greater global trade and investment, and the jobs they create and is a

further serious risk to growth” (Asthana). These promises came at an opportune time given

Britain’s position in the global market, where uncertainty had already enveloped Britain’s

economy; there has been a fall in the value of their currency after the referendum. This is a

glaring indicator of the potential risk they face. Following Theresa May's announcement that

Britain would begin formal Brexit negotiations by the end of March, the value of the pound fell

to its lowest in three years, taking its decline from 1.30 euros prior to the referendum to a low of

1.09 euros in October (BBC). A failing currency could have a regressive impact on their

economy as it leads to higher prices and unemployment. One must couple this with the

administrative complications involved with a modern-day exit from the EU.

Detachment from the European Single Market means that Britain will have to initiate the

cumbersome process of negotiating new trade deals, and this will have to be done while their

economy is shrouded in uncertainty. There is a concern that the new trade agreements they make
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might not be as beneficial compared to what being a part of the EU offered them. Failure to

replicate the stability and opportunities they previously had might lead to a decline in the

productivity and efficiency in terms of economic output. Under the premise of bilateral trade

agreements, Britain’s gross domestic product (GDP) could lower by 6.2 per cent by 2030 as a

result of leaving the EU (HM Treasury). Another concern for Britain will be a potential decline

in foreign direct investment (FDI) following Brexit. FDI is essential for an economy as it

improves productivity which consequently increases economic output and wage levels. About

half of Britain’s FDI stock is from member states of the EU. In addition, investors and firms

from many countries which are not a part of the union have considered Britain to be an entry

point which provides them with investment opportunities across the European Single Market.

These opportunities arise as a result of the policies of the EU, such as the free movement of

labour and capital. If this gateway will be closed, then Britain might face a decline in the influx

of investment and this will bring considerable harm to their economy in the long-run. As a result

of Brexit, the Centre for Economic Performance has estimated a 22 per cent fall in FDI for

Britain over the next decade. From these approximations, one can ascertain the consequences the

British economy might face after a withdrawal from the EU. Problems such as decreasing output,

falling wages, and unemployment are likely to worsen the socio-economic condition of the

country.

Any macroeconomic forecasts of the national economy must account for demographic

changes from a shifting cultural ethos. Since strict immigration policies are likely to be

implemented after Brexit, there is a sense of trepidation amongst the migrant workers because of

the possibility of unemployment. These policies might have a detrimental effect on the economy

due to a loss of jobs. Large proportions of EU migrants in Britain are highly skilled and have
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been integrated successfully. These workers benefit the Britain’s economy greatly because of

their contribution to economic output and productivity. Hence, the reformation of policies that

affect migrants might be counter-intuitive. According to Former British Prime Minister David

Cameron, “an estimated three million jobs are linked to trade with the EU” (Ashworth-Hayes).

This helps understand the correlation between the success of firms and the free movement of

labour that would be hindered as a result of Brexit. An analysis done for the CBI by

PricewaterhouseCoopers indicated that leaving the EU could cost Britain’s economy 100 billion

pounds by 2020, and 950,000 jobs could potentially be lost (Kollewe). Britain’s

multiculturalism, which has hitherto remained a source of social and economic pride, may now

be threatened—thus isolating the country from Europe and the wider world.

This isolation from the rest of the world is being driven by civilian discontentment. A

decline in the wages of British workers is one of the contributing factors to the status quo. Simon

Tilford illustrated a strong causal link between the decline in these wages and an increase in

immigration. Net migration to Britain has increased in the past years with a rise in the need for

skilled labour. The immigration of EU citizens was estimated to be 270,000 in December 2015

compared to 264,000 in December 2014 (Migration Statistics Quarterly Report). A decrease in

the social status of the white working class because of declining wages is seen as a contributing

factor to the rising support for Brexit with regards to the migration laws. By linking these

concerns to the migration, the real cause of this problem is not tackled – the government’s failure

in public policy with regards to the supply-side. EU migrants should not be blamed as they earn

their jobs through meritocratic principles and are net contributors to the economy. Not only does

their integration lead to economic growth, it also creates a need for the local services those

individuals will require to fulfill their personal needs. Enrico Moretti, in his book The New
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Geography of Jobs, indicates that the inflow of innovation and expertise through skilled labour

increases productivity and has a multiplier effect on the economy as the demand for local

services increases (58). However, the positive influence of migrants is not a ubiquitous thought.

Populism has bred ignorance in Britain, and the results of the referendum are a reflection of that.

A culmination of ignorance and dissatisfaction amongst the population has led to an escalation in

xenophobic incidents. Home Office figures on hate crime show that there was an alarming

increase in racist and religious abuse related incidents recorded by the police in England and

Wales in 2016. The number of racially or religiously aggravated offences increased by 41 per

cent in July 2016 compared to the previous year, and there was an evident increase in the number

of hate crimes after the EU referendum. These figures signify radicalisation and the growth of

intolerance but perhaps the incident that epitomizes bigotry was the murder of Jo Cox, a Labour

Member of Parliament. She was an advocate of the Remain campaign who was in favour of

immigration and took pride in diversity. While the murderer was being prosecuted, he stated that

his name was “death to traitors, freedom for Britain” (Calamur, Vasilogambros and Ford). In

response to this tragic incident, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn stated that she was killed by a

“well of hatred” (Mason, Booth and Dodd). This is one anecdote resulting from the complex

mesh of economic anxieties and xenophobia which fed the Brexit campaign, and has only gained

momentum from its success. Intolerant and exclusionary sentiments are hiding behind the façade

of a seemingly democratic referendum.

While Brexit appears to be a democratic decision because of the outcome of the

referendum, its legitimacy can still be questioned. Looking at the result on the basis of the

nations that Britain comprises of, Scotland and Northern Ireland opted to remain a part of the EU

while England and Wales chose to leave (Electoral Commission). England is controlling foreign
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affairs after the referendum and making decisions that are not collective. A lack of consideration

towards the sentiment of the Remain voters could potentially lead to political fragmentation

within Britain. The Scottish National Party is opposing Brexit as withdrawal from the EU is at

odds with their majority Remain vote. The government of Scotland is considering holding a

second independence referendum to possibly leave Britain. In response to the result of the Brexit

referendum, First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon stated that the disintegration of Britain is

"highly likely” (The Week). To prevent this from happening, England should not neglect the will

of the majority in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Moreover, polarisation amongst the voters was

present in England itself. London, a city with the highest number of migrants across Britain,

embodied inclusiveness by voting in favour of remaining in the EU. With increased exposure

and interaction, misinformation regarding migrants is dispelled. This misinformation is present

amongst the lower socio-economic classes in Britain as large proportions of people from areas

with lower levels of schooling were in favour of leaving. A survey conducted on the day of the

referendum indicates that almost half of the Leave voters’ main reason for seeking autonomy

was the notion that “decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK” (Lord Ashcroft). This

proves that many people were unaware that the EU did not interfere with government policies.

They were also uninformed about the benefits that came as a result of membership. Hence, this

referendum should not form the basis of a decision of this magnitude.

The advocates of Brexit took advantage of civilian discontentment to gain support for

their political agendas, and this was reflected in the outcome of the referendum. As soon as

favourable results came in, they withdrew the claims which were made regarding public policy.

Slogans such as “Take Back Our Country” were used as devices for propaganda in order to cloud

the judgment of millions. If only those voters had asked themselves one simple question before
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voting in the referendum—take back from what? The EU does not dictate the domestic policies

of Britain; it merely assists them by promoting economic growth that comes as a result of free

trade and the free movement of labour. When resistance to the notion of separation is present

within Scotland and Northern Ireland, England should not dictate foreign policy. The decision to

leave the EU tramples on ideas that stem from liberalism and plurality. It might also take a

significant toll on Britain’s economy which will become evident once they formally exit. Brexit

is a manifestation of populism that is stimulating xenophobia and giving citizens a sense of

entitlement that defies meritocracy and inclusiveness. Radicalisation within Britain is bound to

escalate as they are currently casting aside idealism in favour of populism, democracy in favour

of nationalism, and humanity in favour of intolerance. This entire situation is a reminder of how

much divide exists within our society. The spectre of bigotry will continue to loom until

globalisation is fully embraced. The mindset of a country that has historically imposed change on

others needs to change itself.

Works Cited

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