1-130 Argument New PDF

GRE AWA Practice - GRE ARGUMENT ESSAY 1
GRE Analytical Writing Argument Essay Topic - 1

A recent study shows that people living on the continent of North America suffer
9 times more chronic fatigue and 31 times more chronic depression than do
people living on the continent of Asia. Interestingly, Asians, on average, eat 20
grams of soy per day, whereas North Americans eat virtually none. It turns out
that soy contains phytochemicals called Isoflavones, which have been found to
possess disease-preventing properties. Thus, North Americans should consider
eating soy on a regular basis as a way of preventing fatigue and depression.
GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 1
The above argument tries to establish a direct link between soy consumption and
chronic fatigue and depression. The underlying basis of the argument is that soy
protein contains phytochemicals called Isoflavones, which are found to possess
disease-preventing properties.
However, disease is a much larger term, which does not cover only fatigue and
depression, but also a host of other medical conditions. Moreover, it is seen that
chronic fatigue and depression are also the results of high profile life, which leads
to insomnia and stress. Chronic fatigue and depression can be the symptoms of
some other diseases also. The weather conditions, economic stature and work
environment of Asia and North America are very different from each other.
People in these continents have different lifestyles. Their attitude towards life is
also very different. These health related problems could not be certainly related
with the intake of a certain kind of food that is soy foods. Therefore, it is very
important to establish a direct relation between soy foods and chronic fatigue
and depression before arriving at any conclusion.
The second point is that fatigue and depression are totally different from each
other as scientifically they are treated differently. You cannot categorize them in
the same group. You need to consult a psychologist to treat depression and a
doctor for fatigue related problems. Hence, there cannot be the same solution for
two different problems. Above all, according to the author, chronic fatigue is 9
times and depression is 31 times more in North Americans as compared to their
Asian counterparts. There is a huge difference between 9 and 31. Therefore, you
cannot relate or treat them together. There are definitely going to be different
reasons for the two diseases.
According to the author, soy foods contain a chemical called Isoflavones, which
have disease preventing properties. However, there is no study, which reveals
that it is relevant for all types of diseases. Hence, a research has to be done to
establish that the drugs used to treat these two diseases contain Isoflavones.
However, it is a known fact that soy foods are good for human health as soy foods
contain many nutrients required for the human body. Again, there is no solid
evidence that eating soy foods on a regular basis is a solution for chronic fatigue
and depression. The author has not even mentioned about any side effects of
Isoflavones. Hence, the suggestion to take soy foods daily, without any detailed
study about soy food, does not hold any ground.
Hence, it can be said that one should take soy foods for overall health. It is a
possibility that soy foods can be helpful in treating or preventing some diseases,
which further have chronic fatigue or depression as its symptoms. That way one
can link these two diseases with Isoflavones. However, there is no direct relation
between soy proteins and chronic fatigue and depression; it is not justified in the
given argument. The author should have provided a few proofs and data to
establish this relationship.
"In order to save a considerable amount of money, Rockingham's century-old
town hall should be torn down and replaced by the larger and more energy-
efficient building that some citizens have proposed. The old town hall is too small
to comfortably accommodate the number of people who are employed by the
town. In addition, it is very costly to heat the old hall in winter and cool it in
summer. The new, larger building would be more energy efficient, costing less per
square foot to heat and cool than the old hall. Furthermore, it would be possible
to rent out some of the space in the new building, thereby generating income for
the town of Rockingham."
According to the conclusion of this editorial, the new and larger building of town
hall in place of the old one will help in saving money and energy. However, many
points given in support of the views of the writer are not very convincing.
Although, there is no doubt that the new proposed building will have many
advantages over the old town hall, but the author has ignored to mention many
important points. He has completely failed to provide evidence for his reasons to
build the new building. The points given by the author have no relevant relation
among themselves. For example, the cost effectiveness and the fact that the old
building is not able to accommodate its employees are not related anywhere. He
has tried to explain the need of the new town hall but has neglected to suggest
the alternative measures that can be taken to solve the problems faced by the old
town hall.
The author has talked about the larger and the energy efficient new building.
According to him, it would cost less per cubic foot to heat and cool the new
building as compared to the old town hall building. However, he has easily
forgotten to mention the overall cost of heating and cooling the much larger new
building. This cost might be much higher than the current expenses. In addition,
there will be the costs of constructing the new building and installing new
systems. The author has not even mentioned the option of installing new heating
and cooling systems in the old building. The upgradation of the old system might
be more cost effective. Besides, the new building might also need some
maintenance fee to maintain the new facilities added to the building.
The second point on which the author is insisting is that the current building
cannot comfortably accommodate all the people who work in it. This point is
anyways not related to the money saving measures the author is talking about.
Here again, the author has ignored other more effective solutions for this
problem. For example, adding another structure for the employees.
Another point is about the renting out of the parts of the new property to
generate some income. However, the views of the author are contradictory as on
one hand, he is explaining the need of a larger building and on the other hand, he
is talking about the renting out some part of property. Hence, if the new and
larger building is the need of the hour then there is no scope of additional
income. The author has failed to give enough and strong evidence for the
requirement of the new building. He has also forgotten to consider the heritage
value of the Rockingham's century old town hall.
Hence, the author has to collect more information about the old building. The
author must search for some solid evidence. He should do a complete and
detailed study of comparing the cost effectiveness of both the options including
the initial cost of setting up the new building and replacing the old heating system
in the old building. The author has to work towards making his editorial logically
more correct.
Claitown University needs both affordable housing for its students and a way to
fund the building of such housing. The best solution to this problem is to
commission a famous architect known for experimental and futuristic buildings. It
is common knowledge that tourists are willing to pay money to tour some of the
architect's buildings, so it can be expected that tourists will want to visit this new
building. The income from the fees charged to tourists will soon cover the
building costs. Furthermore, such a building will attract new students as well as
donations from alumni. And even though such a building will be much larger than
our current need for student housing, part of the building can be used as office
space.
This argument is about hiring a famous architect to build a cost effective building
to house the students of Claitown University. However, it seems from the author's
statement that the University does not have enough funds to construct this kind
of building. The author's line of thought is not very convincing. He has not been
able to give logics for his reasons. He should have gone in details of the cost of the
new building and other costs and the source of this money.
This argument has many loopholes as the author is talking on the basis of his
assumptions. First of all, he is talking about commissioning a famous architect,
who might charge a heavy amount for his work. It will add a heavy burden on the
University's budget. The author has simply skipped this line of reasoning. He has
not included this expenditure in the cost. The author is assuming that all the
expenditure related to the building will be taken care of by the funds coming from
the students' fee, donations coming from the alumni and the amount paid by
tourists to visit the new building.
However, all these are just assumptions. The author has not considered the
possibility that the tourists might not be interested in visiting a building that is
meant for students' housing. Once the students start using the building, tourists
will not be attracted towards the building or they might be happy by watching it
from outside only. That way there will not be any income from the tourists.
Hence, the argument's claim fails to prove that a famous architect's work will
generate income for the balancing of costs.
The author has not even explained the source of money to construct the building.
The building will receive the funds from students in the form of fee and other
funds only when the building will be in use. Hence, this argument holds base only
if the architect agrees to take his payment later on and the supplier also supplies
the construction material without taking any advance.
Further, the author has talked about attracting new students and the old students
who can make donations. However, he has not provided any evidence to support
his views neither he has given any example of some other university. It might be
possible that the old alumni are more attached to the existing building. Therefore,
one cannot accept this conclusion without any proof.
In short, we can say that the author could not support his argument. He has not
supplied any evidence to prove his point. He should have studied similar cases of
other college buildings that were designed by famous architects and tourists are
interested in visiting and paying to watch them. The author should also have
emphasized on the detailed explanation of the financial aspects of the building
project. A survey of old students and alumni also would have been a good idea as
then we will know how interested students are to make donations.
As a result of numerous consumer complaints of dizziness and nausea,
Promofoods requested that eight million cans of tuna be returned for testing last
year. Promofoods concluded that the cans did not, after all, contain chemicals
that posed a health risk. This conclusion is based on the fact that the chemists
from Promofoods tested samples of the recalled cans and found that, of the eight
chemicals most commonly blamed for causing symptoms of dizziness and nausea,
five were not found in any of the tested cans. The chemists did find that the three
remaining suspected chemicals are naturally found in all other kinds of canned
foods.
This argument is based on the complaints of nausea and dizziness from the
consumers who have used canned tuna. Although Promofoods had recalled eight
million cans of tuna and also some samples of tuna to lab for testing, it concluded
that the cans did not contain any chemical, which can cause any health hazard.
The results of the tests done by chemists from Promofoods do not hold any
ground, as these results are not supported by any strong evidence. As per the
chemists from Promofoods, there are eight chemicals responsible for dizziness
and nausea and five of them were not present in the tested cans of tuna.
However, they have not considered the possibility that certain chemicals in
contact with other chemicals can also cause dizziness and nausea. The results of
this testing can also be biased as the testing has been done only on a few
samples. Hence, it cannot be said that five chemicals not present in the tested
samples were not present in the cans consumed by the affected buyers.
Promofoods should have collected the cans from where tuna was consumed and
that caused health risk for many people. It might be possible that those cans
contained these chemicals. When it comes to testing, you cannot generalize the
results.
According to Promofoods, five suspected chemicals were not present in the

tested samples and the other three are present in the other canned foods and do
not cause any bad effect. However, this is again without any strong evidence. It is
just an assumption that the chemicals, which do not cause any bad effect in one
canned food, will not cause any ill effect in canned tuna. It might be possible that
one of these chemicals causes health risk when exposed to some specific
chemical present in tuna. Hence, it is not right to say in general that tuna cans
were not responsible for the symptoms of dizziness and nausea. It can be said the
whole conclusion of Promofoods is based on weak evidence. The results of the
tests done by the chemists are not very convincing.
Promofoods should have done tests on a large number of canned tuna. It should
have gathered more results to make its study more convincing. However, it
cannot be said that the study done by Promofoods is baseless. It is entirely
possible that there are some other chemicals, which are responsible for the
symptoms of nausea and dizziness and it is not found yet. Promofoods should also
take this possibility into account.
In the end, it can be said that the entire study of this argument is based on
assumption that the eight chemicals responsible for nausea and dizziness were
not present in the tuna cans. This is an important study and Promofoods should
work on providing stronger evidence. They have to prove that there was no
biased sampling and the testing was correct. The chemists have to prove that the
three chemicals, which are normally found in other canned foods, do not cause
any harmful effect in tuna.
People should not be misled by the advertising competition between Coldex and
Cold-Away, both popular over-the-counter cold medications that anyone can
purchase without a doctor's prescription. Each brand is accusing the other of
causing some well-known, unwanted side effect: Coldex is known to contribute to
existing high blood pressure and Cold-Away is known to cause drowsiness. But the
choice should be clear for most health-conscious people: Cold-Away has been on
the market for much longer and is used by more hospitals than is Coldex. Clearly,
Cold-Away is more effective.
This argument is about the two competing products, Coldex and Cold-Away. Both
the medicines are cold medicines available over-the-counter. Both the brands
compete with each other and accuse each other for some side effect. According
to the author, Coldex is responsible for causing high blood pressure and Cold-
Away causes drowsiness. Here, the author seems a little biased as without
providing any evidence, he is suggesting that as Cold-Away is in the market for a
longer period, it is more effective and it should be the clear choice of customers.
The logic provided by the author is very dubious and unconvincing. The author is
simply trying to boost the consumer's ego by saying that the choice should be
clear for most health-conscious people. Though it is a good advertising tactic used
by the company, it cannot be considered as enough proof of Cold-Away being
more effective.
The author is giving one more logic that Cold-Away is in the market for a longer
period. However, this fact also does not add any effectiveness to the argument.
The new medicine might have new effective ingredients. It is not necessary that
well-established products are better than newer ones. Moreover, latest
medicines often make use of new pharmaceutical developments than the existing
products. Instead of this, the author should have concentrated on the plus and
minus points of the two medicines.
According to the author, Cold-Away is used by more hospitals than Coldex, that is
the reason enough to consider Cold-Away more effective. This is again an
advertising gimmick and not a proof that it is more effective. There might be
some other reasons for hospitals using Cold-Away. It is just an assumption of the
author that the hospitals are recommending Cold-Away because it is better than
Coldex. It might be that doctors are using this medicine because of its drowsiness
inducing effect to calm their patients. For that matter, perhaps hospitals use Cold-
Away primarily for this effect rather than as a cold medication.
One more problem with this argument is the side effect of Coldex. If Coldex is the
cause of high blood pressure then, obviously no doctor will recommend it.
However, people who do not suffer with the problem of high blood pressure can
still use it. Thus, Coldex's side effect is irrelevant in choosing between the two
products. Moreover, if a person without high blood pressure wishes to avoid
drowsiness during the treatment of cold, Coldex would seem to be the preferable
medication than Cold-Away.
The author has not offered convincing evidence to support his views. He should
have strengthened his argument by providing the evidence that the doctors and
hospitals use Cold-Away because of its effectiveness in treating cold. A data of
clinical research or a reliable data of general survey would have supported the
argument in a better way. It should not be based on assumptions. In the present
form, it just looks like an advertisement tactic to increase the sale of one product.
It is just trying to persuade people to buy Cold-Away.
GRE Analytical Writing Argument Essay Topic – 6
A folk remedy for insomnia, the scent in lavender flowers, has now been proved
effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night
for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their
sleep was monitored. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their
usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. During
the second week, the volunteers discontinued their medication. As a result, they
slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the
third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous
two weeks. This shows that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia.
Everybody wants to have sound sleep, whether it is an over-worked person or a

person affected from a disease called chronic insomnia.
This argument is about the cure for the same sleeping disorder called chronic
insomnia. The persons suffering from this disease find difficulty in sleeping. The
basis of this argument is a study of 30 volunteers who were suffering from chronic
insomnia. The results of this study show that insomnia can be cured over a period
by using lavender. However, the author has not offered enough evidence to
support this conclusion. He has not even considered many possibilities.
In the beginning, the author has mentioned that the usual medication of 30
volunteers allows them to sleep soundly but they feel tired when they get up.
However, the author has not considered many other insomniacs who are taking
medications and not feeling tired on waking up. Therefore, there is also an option
of these volunteers going to their doctor and telling him about their problem of
feeling tired. Their problem might be corrected by a change in their medicines.
The author has also mentioned about discontinuing the medication of the
volunteers. According to him, even in the absence of any medicine, patients have
responded to lavender therapy. However, he has not taken the factor of
controlled room environment into consideration. The controlled room
environment and the normal environment of the volunteers might yield different
results when their medication is discontinued.
Moreover, this study is done in a controlled room. This factor cannot be ignored.
The author has not checked the results of using lavender scent in their normal
sleeping place. You cannot ignore the role of controlled environment in the sound
sleep of the volunteers. The author has ignored the effect of peace provided by
the controlled room along with the lavender scent. There is also possibility of
there being a highway or a railway line close to the residences of the volunteers,
which might be a big factor in their problem of chronic insomnia. Hence, the same
study should have been done in their normal circumstances. It would have
provided stronger evidence regarding the study of lavender curing insomnia.
One more thing that goes against this argument is that now a days medical
science has developed largely. If, according to this study, lavender was so
successful in curing insomnia, then doctors would have used lavender in their
treatment of insomniac patients. However, until now, no doctor has used it in his
or her medication nor does any medicine related to insomnia contain lavender.
The most important factor is that this study is done only on a small group that
contains only 30 persons while there are millions of people who are suffering
from the same problem. It is not feasible to think that the same results will work
for all the patients suffering from chronic fatigue. Hence, the study should have
been based on a larger group.
Hence, we can say that although the author's argument might be true, he should
have collected more evidence in his favor. A study of just 30 volunteers cannot be
considered enough proof for use of lavender as a medicine.
Typically, as people age, their bone mass decreases, making them more
vulnerable to bone fractures. A recent study concludes that the most effective
way to reduce the risk of fractures in later life is to take twice the recommended
dose of vitamin D and calcium daily. The three-year study followed a group of
French women in their eighties who were nursing home residents. The women
were given daily supplements of twice the recommended dose of vitamin D and
calcium. In addition, the women participated in a light weightlifting program.
After three years, these women showed a much lower rate of hip fractures than is
average for their age.
The basis of this argument is the fact that people lose their bone mass as they age
and therefore, they are more prone to fractures. According to the conclusion of
this argument, old people should take twice the recommended dose of vitamin D
and calcium. However, there are many loopholes in this study. The evidence used
by the author is very vague.
First of all, this study is only on a group of French women. This cannot be true for
the people from all other continents or even countries. People from different
places have different food habits and different life styles. Every place has different
climate and geological conditions. People from plain areas and people from hilly
areas cannot be placed in the same group. Similarly, persons with active lifestyles
cannot be merged with the not so active people. Even, males and females should
be studied separately as they are very different from each other in terms of their
physique and hormones. Their level of absorbing vitamin and calcium is different.
There is also a possibility that the French people have something in their diet that
prevents or reduces fractures. Moreover, the author has not mentioned the
number of women in the group. If the group is too small, then it does not even
represent all the French women. The author has assumed so many things and
generalized the data, which cannot be possible.
Secondly, this study is done on nursing home residents, which in itself questions
the study. There might be a possibility that these women had led an active life in
their career and taken various precautions related to their health, hence they are
less susceptible to fractures. It is highly possible that the other women, who are
not the residents of a nursing home will suffer the same number of fractures in
spite of taking the recommended vitamin D and calcium.
The third point is that this study is done only on the women who are in their
eighties. Hence, the results of this study do not hold true for all age groups.
Moreover, the author has also mentioned in his study that these women also
participated in some lightweight exercises. The author has not taken care of this
aspect while concluding the argument. It is highly possible that these lightweight
exercises had actually strengthened the muscles of these women. The author has
not mentioned or explained the relation between vitamin D and calcium and the
strength of bones. He should have explained in details the relation between the
fractures and the intake of vitamin D and calcium.
The lowest point of this argument is that according to the author, the women
have shown a lower rate of hip fractures. He has not even mentioned the effect of
increased dose of vitamin on the other types of fractures. Hence, the results
cannot be true for other types of fractures. The author should have also
considered other fractures. Hence, it can be concluded that this study is
incomplete and deprived of enough evidence. Hence, this conclusion is not very
convincing.
Some studies conducted by Bronston College, which is also located in a small
town, reveal that both male and female professors are happier living in small
towns when their spouses are also employed in the same geographic area.
Therefore, in the interest of attracting the most gifted teachers and researchers
to our faculty and improving the morale of our entire staff, we at Pierce University
should offer employment to the spouse of each new faculty member we hire.
Although we cannot expect all offers to be accepted or to be viewed as an ideal
job offer, the money invested in this effort will clearly be well spent because, if
their spouses have a chance of employment, new professors will be more likely to
accept our offers.
This argument contains a suggestion given by the chairperson of a department to

the president of the Pierce University that is based on a study conducted by
Bronston College that is located in a small town like Pierce University. This study
concludes that if the university is interested in attracting gifted teachers and
researches, then the university should give job offers to the spouse of each new
talented teacher. This study concludes that the teachers will be happier staying in
small towns if their spouses will be in the same geographical area. However, this
argument seems a little doubtful as it is not supported by evidence and the
author has not taken care of all the situations.
First of all the study is done by Bronston College and not by the university itself.
The Pierce University and the Bronston College have only one thing in common
that both of them are situated in small towns. The author has not talked about
the environments of the two places, number of students, and the reputation of
the two institutions. A teacher will also consider all these things while accepting a
job offer. Hence, whether the study done by Bronston College will work for the
Pierce University or not, has to be taken care of.
The second reason that the author has mentioned is that the teachers are happier
staying in small towns when their spouses are in the same geographical area.
Here again, the author is just assuming the case of teachers in the small town. The
same may be true for the teachers in the cities. This possibility can also be true.
There is also the possibility of teachers being happier because of the good and
peaceful environment of the small town where the Bronston College lies in. The
author has overlooked all these factors, hence, the argument cannot be
concluded on the basis of these statements.
Another factor is that the chairperson has mentioned is that the University should
take this measure to attract the most gifted teachers. However, that is also not
guaranteed as if a person is more talented then most of the times that person is
ambitious. In this case, they would be more interested in getting jobs in a better
university like Harvard or MIT. They would also give preference to the conditions
of the laboratory and the salary given by the University. All these factors make the
chairperson's recommendations less valuable.
Even if it will attract the most gifted teachers and researchers and improve the
morale of their entire staff, the chairperson has not provided any evidence that
the results of the new policy will be profitable. Hence, even though the
recommendations of the chairperson are true, they are not well supported. The
chairperson should have provided evidence to ensure that the Bronston College's
study is well appropriate for Pierce University. There should have been strong
reasons for the most gifted teachers and researchers preferring Pierce University
and not the other universities or colleges. There should also be a study for the
cost effectiveness of this recommendation.
For the past five years, consumers in California have been willing to pay twice as
much for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast as for Gulf Coast oysters.
This trend began shortly after harmful bacteria were found in a few raw Gulf
Coast oysters. However, scientists have now devised a process for killing the
bacteria. Once consumers are made aware of the increased safety of Gulf Coast
oysters, they are likely to be willing to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for
northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters, and greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster
producers will follow.
The argument is based on a trend, which is running for the last five years that the
consumers in California are ready to pay more for oysters from the northeastern
Atlantic Coast than for Gulf Coast oysters. According to the author, this started
when some harmful bacteria were found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters.
However, as per this argument, now the scientists have invented a new method
to kill these harmful bacterial, hence, the value of Gulf Coast oysters will increase
again.
However, this argument is not very acceptable, as many important points have
been ignored. First, the author has not mentioned the quantity of Gulf Coast
oysters in which the harmful bacteria were found. The whole lot of Gulf Coast
oysters cannot be rejected just because of a few affected oysters. The author has
not tried to explain this aspect. Moreover, there does not seem to be any relation
between the price of oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast being twice
high as Gulf Coast ones and harmful bacteria found in a few raw Gulf Coast
oysters. It might be that the Gulf Coast oysters are more easily available than the
northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters. There might be some other factors that can
affect the prices of the two types of oysters. These factors cannot be ruled out
without any research. Hence, the author should have studied the data carefully
and logically to explain the link between the two things.
Secondly, the author has mentioned about a process devised by scientists to kill
the bacteria, but he has not tried to explain the procedure. In fact, the author has
not mentioned about the success ratio of this method. The author has talked
about the increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters but he is not very sure. There are
chances that this procedure can only inhibit the growth of the harmful bacteria or
can kill a small portion of the bacteria. Hence, this argument can be concluded
based on this statement. It is still not very convincing that if consumers were
made aware of the increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters, they would be ready to
pay the increased amount for Gulf Coast ones. It might be possible that they will
be worried about the success rate of this new procedure or some side effect of
this method.
There is one more low point of this argument. These changes took place in the
market five years ago. The consumers might or might not be that fond of oysters.
Five years is a long period, hence this is just a speculation that the price of Gulf
Coast oysters will increase and the market will make profit from them. Even if this
assumption comes true and the price of Gulf Coast oysters increases, the author
has not offered any data that will help us to compare the two prices. The author
has also not mentioned other factors that will affect the profitability of the
producers of Gulf Coast oysters. Hence, it cannot be said with surety that the
producers will gain profits with the increased prices. In the end, we can say that
this argument needs a detailed study of many other factors.

The following appeared in a memo from the marketing director of Bargain Brand
Cereals.
"One year ago we introduced our first product, 'Bargain Brand' breakfast cereal.
Our very low prices quickly drew many customers away from the top-selling
cereal companies. Although the companies producing the top brands have since
tried to compete with us by lowering their prices, and although several plan to
introduce their own budget brands, not once have we needed to raise our prices
to continue making a profit. Given our success selling cereal, Bargain Brand should
now expand its business and begin marketing other low-priced food products as
quickly as possible."
The above argument is given by the marketing head of the company. He has tried
to prove his good marketing skills and he is trying to increase the company's
market by introducing new products. As per him, the first product of the company
'Bargain Brand' breakfast cereal has established its market and it was a hit with
the customers. Even this cereal has drawn customers from the top-selling cereal
companies because of its low price and good quality. Hence, right now the
company should take advantage of its goodwill among its customers and
introduce new products in the market.
I completely agree with this argument placed by the author as when the
customers are happy with the service provided by one company, and then they
definitely want to go for the other services provided by the same company.
According to a famous saying, "First impression is the last impression." Hence, this
is the right time for the company to introduce the new product. However, the
company has to take extra care to prove that it is the best. The quality of the new
product should not be compromised. The company should make sure about the
quality and the prices offered by the company being the best in the market. The
new product should equalize itself with the old products. Even if the company
makes a little less profit in the beginning, the quality should be the best.
According to the author, this is the right time as the company is already
established in the market and giving competition to the top-brand companies.
The customers trust the company and its products completely. Hence, if the
company launches new and different products at this time, it will give the
company a good name. The company can use the success of its first product to
expand its business. The advertisement of the new product can be based on the
existing product. The profits of the business depend on the good quality and the
good advertisement. If a company takes advantage of its success at the right time,
it grows very quickly. According to the marketing head, people have started to
know the company and if the second product launched will be good enough then
it can give the company's business a boost.
However, the company should not take everything for granted. The company
should consider all other factors, which can affect the promotion of the new
product. The company should collect all the data related to the market and
should research for the demand of the product before launching the new
product. There is a possibility of tough competition from the other companies
that are already selling the same product at much cheaper rates. Hence, there will
be tough competition. Therefore, the company should be careful in selecting the
new product for launch. The quality, taste, and price of the product have to be
better than the other products in the market.
Hence, the suggestion made by the marketing head is correct and the company
should think about launching a new product, but it should do it after a careful
study of the market.

Many employees of major United States corporations are fearful that they will
lose their jobs in the near future, but this fear is largely unfounded. According to a
recent study, a majority of companies expected to make new hires in the coming
year, while fewer companies expected to lay off employees. In addition, although
it is very disturbing to be laid off, the proliferation of programs and of workshops
designed to improve job-finding skills has made being laid off far less painful than
it once was.
The arguer claims that the apprehensions of many employees of major United
States corporations that they may lose their current jobs in the near future are
baseless. This statement is supported by evidence in the form of the results of a
recent study that brings out that a majority of companies will be hiring new
employees in the coming year. Additionally, the number of companies that may
be discontinuing the services of their employees is very less. The argument
further states that a large number of programs and workshops designed to
improve job-finding skills have come up and this has eased the pain of losing one's
job to a large extent. However, the reasons provided by the arguer are insufficient
to support the claim being made.
A major lacuna in the given argument is that the recent study brings out the
employment related statistics for the coming year, whereas the fear of losing jobs
is with respect to the near future. The term 'near future' has not been defined
anywhere in the given argument. It has not be been specifically mentioned that
'near future' includes the coming year as well. Additionally, the results of the
recent study are related only to the employment statistics for the coming year.
Therefore, utilizing the results of the study to state the fears of the employees as
baseless is by and large unconvincing as these two facts cannot be related to each
other.
Moreover, the argument makes no mention of the specific fields in which there
may not be a requirement of employees in the near future. It is quite possible
that with the advent of technology, most corporations are procuring hi-tech
machinery and therefore, their current employees are fearful of losing their jobs
as they are not technically qualified to handle the new equipment. The
corporations may have additional openings for technically qualified personnel
who can handle the new machines. Therefore, the results of the survey that
indicate a requirement of hiring employees do not suggest that the present
employees need not fear losing their jobs.
The statement that "the proliferation of programs and of workshops designed to

improve job-finding skills has made being laid off far less painful than it once
was", does nothing to alleviate the fears of the employees that they may lose
their jobs in the near future. Just because there are numerous programs available
for improving job-finding skills does not assure that it will be easy to get a new
job. Additionally, this does not mean that one need not fear losing one's job. This
is because getting employed is largely dependent on your qualifications and
expertise and not on your job-finding skills. Therefore, this statement is flawed
and it does not serve the purpose of strong evidence in support of the claim that
the fears of the employees are baseless.
The argument would have sounded convincing if it had included more evidence to
support its claim that the employees are unnecessarily fearing that they will lose
their jobs. In view of the above, it is evident that the given argument is largely
flawed in its present form due to lack of sufficient evidence in its support.

In the Bayhead Public Library, books that are rarely borrowed continue to take up
shelf space year after year, while people who want to read a recent novel
frequently find that the library's only copy is checked out. Clearly, the library's
plan to replace books that are borrowed no more than once a year with sufficient
copies of more recent books will solve this problem. The protest we have heard
since this plan was made public has come from a small, and thus
unrepresentative, group of some thirty people and so should therefore be
ignored.
The given argument states that a sufficient number of recent novels are not
available in the Bayhead Public Library, whereas the number of books that are
rarely borrowed is quite high and they take up a lot of shelf space. The arguer
draws the conclusion that replacing books that are borrowed rarely in the
Bayhead Public Library with sufficient copies of more recent books is a solution to
the problem that recent novels are unavailable for the readers. The first reading
of the given argument sounds quite convincing, but a subsequent careful reading
leads to the identification of several flaws that make the argument sound
unconvincing. These flaws have been discussed in the succeeding paragraphs.
The argument fails to draw a relation between the two different problems being
faced by the Bayhead Public Library. The first problem is that there is insufficient
shelf space in the library and the second problem is that there are a less number
of recent novels and so sometimes readers find that the only copy of a recent
novel has been issued out. The argument fails to convince the reader that both
these problems can have a common solution. Buying additional copies of recent
novels may be a good solution to the second problem, but replacing the books
that are rarely borrowed cannot be termed as a suitable solution to the problem
of insufficient shelf space. The reason for this is that a library should house a large
variety of books. A library cannot cater only to a small section of society who read
popular novels. It has to keep in mind the requirements of the entire society as a
whole.
The very fact that a section comprising of 30 people have protested to the
proposed solution proves the fact that the books are indeed in demand and it
would be a grave mistake to remove them from the library. Also, there is
likelihood that there may be more people who are not open to the solution that
has been proposed but they are not vocal in their protests. Therefore, it is quite
likely that these 30 people may succeed in initiating a mass protest once the
proposal is actually implemented leading to a loss of reputation for the Bayhead
Public Library. Therefore, one cannot afford to ignore the protests being made by
these 30 people.
Moreover, the arguer has not considered other options for increasing shelf space
like buying new shelves or constructing an additional room or shelf in the library
premises. In the absence of a discussion on the feasibility of implementing such a
construction, the given solution fails to sound convincing. Additionally, the arguer
could have explored other options like replacing books that have not been
borrowed for the last decade or more instead of the proposed one year. There
could also have been a mention of removing additional copies of books that are
not borrowed frequently and leave some copies of the same for people who may
need them at some time or the other. This would have also laid the protests made
the 30 people to rest. In the absence of such strong evidence the claim made by
the argument is very weak and hence the argument fails to convince a reader.

The following appeared in a letter from the owner of the Sunnyside Towers
apartment building to its manager.
"One month ago, all the showerheads on the first five floors of Sunnyside Towers
were modified to restrict the water flow to approximately 1/3 of its original force.
Although actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment are not
yet available, the change will obviously result in a considerable savings for
Sunnyside Corporation, since the corporation must pay for water each month.
Except for a few complaints about low water pressure, no problems with showers
have been reported since the adjustment. Clearly, restricting water flow
throughout all the 20 floors of Sunnyside Towers will increase our profits further."
The given argument concludes that restricting the water flow throughout the 20
floors of Sunnyside Towers will increase the profits for the owner of Sunnyside
Towers. The owner draws this conclusion by presenting evidence in support of his
claim. He brings out that despite restricting the flow of water to approximately
1/3 of its original force in the first 5 floors of Sunnyside Towers, there have been
no major complaints about low water pressure and the functioning of the shower
heads. A careful analysis of the given evidence reveals loopholes that weaken the
argument to a great extent.
A major loophole in the argument is the fact that the actual readings of water
usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available. Therefore, it cannot
be assumed that the water usage is less. It is quite probable that the residents are
using the same amount of water. After the change, the water pressure has
become low but the residents must be using the same amount of water as they
did before the change by using water for a longer period of time. Therefore, it
would be wrong to assume that the corporation would pay less for water usage
until the readings before and after the change are available.
Another obvious flaw in the given argument is that there is no mention of the
section of residents who have complained. Moreover, there is no clear indication
of the method that was utilized for gathering this information. It could be the
result of random complaints or it may have been the result of a survey. If it was a
survey, then it is possible that the opinion of all the residents of the first 5 floors
have not been taken into account because there is no mention of the exact
number of people who have complained. Therefore, one cannot draw a concrete
conclusion as statistics related to the exact percentage of residents from the first
5 floors who have complained is not available.
Additionally, the residents may not have complained, but it is likely that they are
not happy with the restriction imposed on the water flow. They may complain
about the shortcomings of this restriction in the near future. They could even
force the corporation to revert to the earlier fittings. This would result in incurring
heavy expenses instead of savings. Moreover, it is not necessary that the
residents in the remaining 15 floors of Sunnyside Towers will react in a similar
manner. Therefore, the assumption that the residents of the remaining 15 floors
will not oppose the restriction on water flow is largely flawed.
The given argument fails to convince the reader that restricting the flow of water
will indeed result in less water usage thereby saving the amount of money that is
paid by the corporation for the usage of water. The argument could have been
substantiated by evidence that proved that the water usage has actually reduced
after imposing the restriction on water flow. Moreover, lack of sufficient evidence
to prove that the residents of the remaining 15 floors will not object to the
adjustment of water flow makes the argument sound extremely unconvincing.

The following is a recommendation from the director of personnel to the
president of Professional Printing Company.
"In a recent telephone survey of automobile factory workers, older employees

were less likely to report that having a supervisor present increases their
productivity. Among workers aged 18 to 29, 27 percent said that they are more
productive in the presence of their immediate supervisor, compared to 12
percent for those aged 30 or over, and only 8 percent for those aged 50 or over.
Clearly, if our printing company hires mainly older employees, we will increase
productivity and save money because of the reduced need for supervisors. "
In the given argument, the director of personnel of Professional Printing Company

claims that hiring older employees will increase their productivity and save money
as they will need a lesser number of supervisors. He supports this claim with the
help of evidence in the form of statistics revealed as a result of a telephone
survey carried out in an automobile factory. The facts presented sound quite
convincing when read for the first time, but a closer examination brings out
several logical flaws that weaken the given argument.
Firstly, it is not necessary that the results of a telephone survey carried out for the
workers of an automobile factory will hold true for the workers of a printing
company as well. As both the companies are different, there are bound to be
differences in the mode of functioning, the type of equipment used and the
expertise required to handle the machinery. It is quite likely that the equipment
being used by the automobile factory is largely automated, thereby reducing the
need of supervisors for older people who have had enough experience in working
with the same machinery for years. There is no concrete evidence provided by the
arguer that proves that the conditions in the printing company and the
automobile company are the same.
Secondly, older workers may not be requiring supervision because of their

experience in handling the machinery for numerous years in the past. Hiring older
people afresh has an entirely different connotation. These older people who have
recently been hired may not be having the requisite experience in handling the
machinery specifically used in the printing company and therefore, they may
actually need extensive training and supervision. Additionally, because of their
age they may need more time in grasping the finer details for the functioning of
the equipment as compared to their younger counterparts. Therefore, assuming
that hiring older people will do away with the need for appointing supervisors for
them is largely far-fetched and baseless. Additionally, even if the older employees
are well qualified and they don't need supervisors, one cannot establish that this
will lead to savings for the company. This is because it is likely that well qualified
and experienced workers will ask for a higher salary.
Lastly, the arguer does not explicitly state the section of workers included in the
telephone survey that was carried out in the automobile factory. In the absence
of such details one cannot conclude that the inference drawn is a reflection of the
opinion of all the workers of the factory. Therefore, as the conclusion drawn from
the survey is questionable, applying the same to the workers of Professional
Printing Company weakens the argument further.
The given argument could have been strengthened if the arguer had included
strong evidence to prove that the working conditions in the automobile factory
and the printing company are comparable. Moreover, the argument could have
sounded convincing if the arguer had brought out the results of a survey carried
out on the workers of Professional Printing Company. In view of the above, it can
easily be seen that the given argument is by and large unconvincing due to lack of
sufficient evidence in support of its claim.

The following appeared as part of an article in a health magazine.
"A new discovery warrants a drastic change in the diets of people living in the
United States. Two scientists have recently suggested that omega-3 fatty acids
(found in some fish and fish oils) play a key role in mental health. Our ancestors,
who ate less saturated fat and more polyunsaturated fat, including omega-3 fatty
acids, were much less likely to suffer from depression than we are today.
Moreover, modern societies - such as those in Japan and Taiwan - that consume
large quantities of fish report depression rates lower than that in the United
States. Given this link between omega-3 fatty acids and depression, it is important
for all people in the United States to increase their consumption of fish in order to
prevent depression."
The given argument draws the conclusion that the residents of the United States
should increase their consumption of fish to avoid depression. This assertion has
been supported by stating that omega-3 fatty acids are related to depression. The
arguer presents some facts to reinforce this statement. The first fact is the
suggestion given by 2 scientists that omega-3 fatty acids play a key role in mental
health. These acids are found in some fish and fish oils. The second fact is that our
ancestors who had a diet rich in omega-3 fatty acids were less likely to suffer from
depression as compared to the present generation. The third fact is that the
depression rates among fish-consuming people like those living in Japan and
Taiwan is quite low. According to the arguer, these 3 facts prove beyond doubt
that omega-3 fatty acids and depression are related. Therefore, increasing the
intake of omega-3 fatty acids is bound to prevent depression. However, there are
numerous loopholes in the argument that fail to convince the reader that omega-
3 acids and depression are related.
The first loophole in the argument is that just because omega-3 fatty acids play a
key role in mental health does not mean that they are related to depression and
that they are necessary for good mental health. They may be related to some
form of mental health other than depression. Additionally, this suggestion has
been made by just two scientists and utilizing this suggestion as a base for
drawing the conclusion that a higher intake of omega-3 fatty acids is necessary to
fight depression does not sound well-reasoned at all.
The second fact does nothing to support the given conclusion as it is a well known
fact that the lifestyle of our ancestors was much different from that of the
present generation. There may have been a variety of other reasons that were
responsible for low rates of depression among them. The present generation
leads a fast paced life which is the root cause for a number of mental stress
related disorders like depression. Therefore, it is quite likely that the intake of fish
had nothing to do with the likelihood of our ancestors being depressed.
The third fact is the weakest link in the given argument. One cannot draw
parallels between the residents of the United States and those of Japan and
Taiwan. Depression rates may differ among the citizens of different countries due
to varied reasons like different lifestyles, working conditions and climatic
conditions. Nowhere in the argument has the arguer referred to the type of fish
that these fish-consuming people are including in their diet. It has been
mentioned in the argument that omega-3 fatty acids are present in some fish and
fish-oils. It is not necessary that all types of fish will be rich in omega-3 fatty acids.
The argument could have been well reasoned if the arguer had provided more
evidence that proved beyond doubt that omega-3 fatty acids are related to
depression and that the types of fish that are being consumed by the people of
Japan and Taiwan are the ones that contain omega-3 fatty acids. Therefore, lack
of strong evidence has rendered the given argument weak and made the
conclusion sound unconvincing.

A new report suggests that men and women experience pain very differently from
one another, and that doctors should consider these differences when prescribing
pain medications. When researchers administered the same dosage of kappa
opioids - a painkiller - to 28 men and 20 women who were having their wisdom
teeth extracted, the women reported feeling much less pain than the men, and
the easing of pain lasted considerably longer in women. This research suggests
that kappa opioids should be prescribed for women whenever pain medication is
required, whereas men should be given other kinds of pain medication. In
addition, researchers should reevaluate the effects of all medications on men
versus women.
The given argument is based on a report that has suggested that there is a
difference in the degree of pain experienced by men and women and therefore,
these differences should be considered while administering pain killers. The said
report included a study of the reaction of men and women to the painkiller, kappa
opioids. The report has presented the statistics that out of 28 men and 20 women
who were having their wisdom teeth extracted the women reported that they felt
less pain as compared to the men when they were administered kappa opioids
prior to the extraction. Based on the inference derived from this report, the
arguer has concluded that kappa opioids should be prescribed for women
whenever the need for administering a pain killer is required; whereas men
should be given other kinds of pain reducing medication. Despite the suggestions
made by the report, the conclusion drawn by the arguer is unconvincing as the
argument is not well-reasoned due to the presence of various logical fallacies.
The main logical flaw in the argument is that both the conduct and the conclusion
of the research are questionable. The report states that 48 people were studied
for their reaction to the drug kappa opioids. 48 people are too less to represent
the entire humanity. Relating the reaction of 20 women to what all the women in
the world would report in a similar condition is entirely unreliable. The reaction of
these 20 women to the drug kappa opioids cannot be termed as a yardstick for
how the women of the entire world would react. Women across the world live in
different climatic conditions and follow different lifestyles. There is no mention of
whether these 20 women consisted of women from across the world or whether
they were confined to a single country. In either case, their reaction to a drug
administered before tooth extraction does not determine how they would react
to the same drug when it is administered for other purposes like some major
surgery.
Another lacuna in the statistics of the research work is that the researchers have
ignored other possibilities that may have been responsible for a lesser degree of
pain for the women. Age is an important factor that determines the way in which
you react to certain drugs. Moreover, your capacity to bear pain is more when
you are young. There is no mention of the ages of the men and women who were
a part of this study. It is possible that a majority of the women were younger than
the men who were a part of the study. Their age would have played an important
role in reacting to the pain killer and the easing of the pain. Even if the men and
women were from the same age group, it is possible that a higher percentage of
these 20 women had higher pain endurance as compared to the 28 men.
Moreover, there is a strong possibility that the extraction process for the women
was not that painful because their wisdom teeth may not have been impacted to
an extent so as to cause great pain.
Lastly, the conclusion that men should be administered another pain killer
altogether is highly unconvincing. The argument does not discuss the
effectiveness of kappa opioids as compared to other pain killers. Therefore, the
assumption that there are other pain killers which would be better for men is
grossly unreliable. Therefore, the effectiveness of kappa opioids for men and
women cannot be compared due to lack of strong evidence that could have
proved that there were no other reasons due to which the women could have
experienced lesser pain than the men who participated in the study.

The following is a recommendation from the dean at Foley College, a small liberal
arts college, to the president of the college.
"Since college-bound students are increasingly concerned about job prospects

after graduation, Foley College should attempt to increase enrollment by
promising to find its students jobs after they graduate. Many administrators feel
that this strategy is a way for Foley to compete against larger and more
prestigious schools and to encourage students to begin preparing for careers as
soon as they enter college. Furthermore, a student who must choose a career
path within his or her first year of college and who is guaranteed a job after
graduation is more likely to successfully complete the coursework that will
prepare him or her for the future."
The dean at Foley College asserts that the college should make promises of job
placements in order to increase the number of students who want to enroll for
the programs offered by the college. The dean supports his assertion by stating
the opinion of administrators who feel that this is a way for competing against
larger and more reputed colleges. Additionally, this would also encourage
students to start preparing for their careers as soon as they join college. The dean
concludes the argument by stating that students who are assured of a job after
graduation are likely to pay more attention to their studies and successfully
complete the coursework. The facts that have been presented by the dean do not
succeed in convincing the reader that the argument is well-reasoned. A careful
scrutiny of the given facts will reveal numerous fallacies that make the given
argument sound unconvincing.
Firstly, Foley College is a small college that conducts courses in liberal arts. It is
possible that students may be joining it because of their interest in leaning Arts as
a hobby and they may not be motivated to look for jobs related to Arts. They may
be keen to pursue other jobs that are more lucrative and well-paying as compared
to a career in liberal arts. Therefore, offering job placements would do little to
attract more students to the college.
The assumption of some of the administrators that this strategy will help them to
compete against reputed colleges that are much larger than Foley College is
baseless. A prestigious college earns its reputation after years of being
established and a small college cannot compete against it just by increasing its
intake of students and offering them job placements. In order to be at par with a
prestigious college, it is necessary that Foley College improves its standard of
teaching and ensures that its students are well trained to pursue a career in Arts.
Therefore, this assumption made by some of the administrators fails to support
the claim made by the dean.
Finally, a major loophole in the given argument is that a promised job on

completion of graduate studies does not ensure that the students will successfully
complete their coursework. On the contrary, it is likely that the students will
ignore their studies. Rather than paying attention to their studies, they will ignore
their coursework because they know that they will be able to get a job even if
they barely manage to scrape through their tests. This, on the other hand, may
bring down the reputation of the college as there could be a large number of
students who have not got good grades. Additionally, this will also mean an
increase in the workload for the college as they will now have to find suitable jobs
for their students who have not done well in the course and who are not skilled
enough for any kind of job.
Therefore, after considering all the aspects of the argument that have been
discussed above, one comes to the conclusion that the given argument cannot be
deemed as reasonable under any circumstances. Hence, the claim of the dean
that promises of job placements on completion of graduation would lead to an
increase in enrollments stands on evidence that is doubtful and therefore, the
given argument fails to convince the reader.

The following is a letter to the editor of the Glenville Gazette, a local newspaper.
"Over the past few years, the number of people who have purchased advance
tickets for the Glenville Summer Concert series has declined, indicating lack of
community support. Although the weather has been unpredictable in the past
few years, this cannot be the reason for the decline in advance ticket purchases,
because many people attended the concerts even in bad weather. Clearly, then,
the reason for the decline is the choice of music, so the organizers of the concert
should feature more modern music in the future and should be sure to include
music composed by Richerts, whose recordings Glenville residents purchase more
often than any other contemporary recordings. This strategy will undoubtedly
increase advance ticket purchases and will increase attendance at the concerts."
The given argument is based on the fact that the purchase of advance tickets for
the Glenville Summer Concert series has declined. The arguer attributes this
decline to the choice of music for the concert. The arguer rules out inclement
weather of the past few years as the reason for the decline in the purchase of
advance tickets as people have been attending the concert in bad weather also.
The arguer concludes that the organizers of the concert should now include music
composed by Richerts as his recordings have been purchased by the residents of
Glenville more than those of any other composer. Despite the facts presented by
the arguer, the argument contains a number of logical fallacies that succeed in
making the argument sound unconvincing.
The arguer mentions that the weather has been unpredictable in the past. It is
quite likely that this weather is responsible for making the residents of Glenville
stay indoors. They may have been attending the concerts in bad weather earlier
but it is possible that their past experiences have influenced their decision of
attending concerts in unpredictable weather. As the weather is now
unpredictable, they probably do not book the advance tickets as one does not
know what the weather will be like on the day of the concert. The argument could
have been substantiated with evidence that compared the number of people who
have been attending the concerts in bad weather with the attendance at the
concerts on good weather days. These statistics would have helped to analyze the
effect of the weather on the purchase of the advance tickets. It is likely that the
attendance on bad weather days was very less as compared to that on the good
weather days and this would then tilt the scales in favor of unpredictable weather
being the main cause for the decline in the sale of advance tickets.
The arguer does not consider any other reason that may have been instrumental
in keeping people away from the Summer Concert series. It is likely that people
are not aware of the procedure for booking advance tickets. Additionally, there is
a chance that there might be some other important event going on in the town at
the same time. It is likely that the other event is attracting the people leading to a
decline in the purchase of advance tickets for the concerts.
Even if it is true that the low attendance at the Glenville Summer Concert series is
due to a bad choice of music, it is not necessary that the music composed by
Richerts would be successful in drawing large crowds to the concert. There is no
mention of the type of music that is currently being played at the concert.
Moreover, there is no solid evidence that proves that the residents of Glenville
are interested in listening to modern music composed by Richerts alone. It is likely
that modern music is appreciated by a small section of people from Glenville and
Richerts' compositions are favored by this small section. Furthermore, it is quite
likely that this section of people may like to listen to Richerts' compositions at
home and they would not be interested in listening to it being played at a concert.
Therefore, due to lack of solid evidence in the form of detailed research and
concrete facts, the argument fails to convince the reader that the choice of music
is the main reason for the decline in the purchase of advance tickets and that
playing the music composed by Richerts will solve the problem of low attendance
at the Glenville Summer Concert series.

The following is a letter from a professor at Xanadu College to the college's
president.
"The development of an extensive computer-based long-distance learning

program will enhance the reputation of Xanadu College. This program would
allow more students to enroll in our courses, thereby increasing our income from
student tuition. Traditional courses could easily be adapted for distance learners,
as was shown by the adaptation of two traditional courses for our distance
learning trial project last year. Also, by using computer programs and taped
lectures, faculty will have fewer classroom obligations and more time to engage in
extensive research, thereby enhancing the reputation of Xanadu."
The given argument reflects an assertion made by a professor at Xanadu College

to the president of the college. The professor states that the reputation of the
college can be enhanced by initiating a computer-based long-distance learning
program. He supports this claim by stating that this would lead to an increase in
the college's income because of the large number of students who would enroll
for the program. The professor adds that traditional courses can be successfully
adapted for distance learning and he cites the example of two such courses that
were conducted in the previous year. The professor also mentions that the
utilization of taped lectures will leave the professors of the college with time for
carrying out extensive research and that this would enhance the reputation of
Xanadu College. Although, the argument seems logical and reasonable when it is
read for the first time, a careful analysis of the facts presented renders the
argument unconvincing due to lack of evidence that is logically sound.
The fact that this statement has been made by a single professor of the college is
a major loophole in the given argument. It is quite possible that while voicing his
opinion, the professor has not included the other departments of the college and
all his assumptions may not hold true for the departments other than his own.
Initiating a distance le'rning program does not ensure an increase in the college's
income. There are a number of students who are not comfortable studying
through distance learning programs. They feel that real-time student-teacher
interaction cannot be substituted by distance learning. Additionally, as far as the
future job prospects are concerned, a degree earned by distance learning does
not carry much significance. Moreover, as the distance learning program being
suggested is computer-based, this would further apply a restriction on the
number of students who would like to apply for it as it is not necessary that all
students can handle computers comfortably. Therefore, it is quite likely that there
may not be a substantial increase in the number of students who would like to
enroll for distance learning from Xanadu College, especially if there are colleges
offering the same programs through regular classes in their neighborhood.
The evidence provided in the form of the two traditional courses that were
adapted for distance learning last year is a weak link in the argument. This is
because of two reasons. Firstly, two courses cannot determine how the remaining
courses of the college will fare if they are adapted for distance learning programs.
Secondly, one year is too less a time to term the distance learning program as
successful. It is likely that the students would have enrolled for the program due
to the novelty of the idea. It is possible that there may be a lesser number of
students enrolling for distance learning programs as time passes and the initial
excitement and curiosity dies down.
Lastly, the assumption that the free time available with the professors will be
utilized by them for research work is highly unconvincing. It is likely that the free
time available with the professors will be utilized by them for other tasks related
to the functioning of the college or the conduct of the distance learning program.
The professors would be spending some time in taping the lectures as well.
Therefore, assuming that the reputation of Xanadu College will be enhanced due
to the extensive research work being carried out by its professors seems far-
fetched.
In view of the above, one can see that the given argument lacks evidence that is
logically sound. The argument could have been strengthened if the assertion
made was the result of an extensive research carried out by a group of professors
from different departments of the college. Therefore, the given argument cannot
be termed as well-reasoned as the conclusion made by the professor does not
rely on solid evidence in its support.

The following is a letter to the editor of the Roseville Gazette.
"Despite opposition from some residents of West Roseville, the arguments in

favor of merging the townships of Roseville and West Roseville are overwhelming.
First, residents in both townships are confused about which authority to contact
when they need a service; for example, the police department in Roseville
receives many calls from residents of West Roseville. This sort of confusion would
be eliminated with the merger. Second, the savings in administrative costs would
be enormous, since services would no longer be duplicated: we would have only
one fire chief, one tax department, one mayor, and so on. And no jobs in city
government would be lost - employees could simply be reassigned. Most
importantly, the merger will undoubtedly attract business investments as it did
when the townships of Hamden and North Hamden merged ten years ago."
The given argument brings out that the merger of the townships of Roseville and
West Roseville is highly recommended. The arguer supports this recommendation
by highlighting three main assumptions in favor of the proposed merger. The first
assumption is that the confusion amongst the residents of the two townships
regarding whom to contact for a required service would be eliminated. The
second assumption in support of the recommendation is that certain key
appointments and services would not be duplicated thereby saving administrative
costs. The arguer also states that there would be no loss of jobs as the employees
could be reassigned. The last assumption is that the proposed merger would
attract business investments as was the case when the townships of Hamden and
North Hamden were merged ten years ago. The argument fails to sound
persuasive enough due to various loopholes in the assumptions provided by the
arguer.
Firstly, the assumption that the confusion regarding which authority to contact
will be eliminated after the proposed merger seems far-fetched. The arguer does
not address other options like educating the residents of both the townships
about the contact details of the relevant services. This awareness drive would be
a far better method for the elimination of this confusion rather than merging the
two townships. If the residents are not clear about the related information, this
confusion will carry on after the merger as well.
Secondly, the arguer fails to convince the reader that there will be savings in
administrative costs after the merger. There is an ambiguity in the statements
that the duplication of jobs will be done away with by having only one mayor, one
tax department etc. and the statement that there will be no loss of jobs. What will
happen to the employees of the tax department of one of the townships after the
merger when there will be only one functional tax department? The arguer fails
to address the issue that the employees who have lost their jobs will have to be
given subsequent employment by creating new jobs. If the total number of
employed people and jobs remain the same, then how are the savings in
administrative costs justified?
Lastly, the assumption that there will be an increase in business investments as

was in the case of the merger of Hamden and North Hamden is totally baseless. A
major flaw in this assumption is that the merger of Hamden was carried out 10
years ago. The financial scenario that existed 10 years ago cannot be compared to
that which exists in the present. Moreover, Hamden may have had certain
resources that attracted business investments. It is likely that Hamden was an
upcoming industrial area or it was experiencing a boom in real-estate prices.
Therefore, the merger of Hamden saw an increase in business investments. It is
not necessary that the merger of Roseville and West Roseville will experience a
similar rise in business investments as the arguer has not drawn any similarities
between the townships of Roseville and Hamden from a business investor's
perspective.
In view of the above, it can be concluded that the given argument fails to sound
convincing due to the presence of evidence that is not logically sound. The
argument could have been substantiated by providing additional evidence that
could have further strengthened all the three given assumptions in support of the
recommendation.

The Department of Education in the state of Attra recommends that high school
students be assigned homework every day. Yet a recent statewide survey of high
school math and science teachers calls the usefulness of daily homework into
question. In the district of Sanlee, 86 percent of the teachers reported assigning
homework three to five times a week, whereas in the district of Marlee, less than
25 percent of the teachers reported assigning homework three to five times a
week. Yet the students in Marlee earn better grades overall and are less likely to
be required to repeat a year of school than are the students in Sanlee. Therefore,
all teachers in our high schools should assign homework no more than twice a
week, if at all.
The given argument brings out that the Department of Education in the state of
Attra has recommended that high school students should be assigned homework
every day. The arguer then proceeds to contradict this recommendation by
comparing the statistics arrived at by carrying out a statewide survey of high
school math and science teachers. 86 percent of the teachers in the district of
Sanlee admitted to assigning homework three to five times in a week; whereas
less than 25 percent of teachers in the district of Marlee admitted to assigning
homework three to five times in a week. Despite the lesser amount of homework,
the students in Marlee score better grades than the students in Sanlee. Using
these facts, the arguer contends that the high school teachers in the state of Attra
should not assign homework to the students more than two times a week. A
careful examination of the given evidence highlights that the argument is largely
unsubstantiated and is rendered weak due to the presence of unconvincing
evidence in its support.
The backbone of the argument is the fact that the students in Marlee are earning
better grades than the students in Sanlee. This better performance can be
attributed to various factors. It might turn out that the homework assignments
actually play an important role in helping the students to get good grades. The
arguer has not provided any additional evidence that proves that homework is
actually of no use when it comes to scoring high in the exams.
It is quite likely that the teaching standards in the high schools of Marlee are far
better than those of Sanlee. Therefore, the students of Marlee are better
prepared for their exams than their counterparts in Sanlee. Moreover, there is no
mention of the grading system that is effective in the high schools of Sanlee and
Marlee. If the grading system is common throughout the entire state, then the
grades of the students studying in the two districts can be compared or else one
cannot compare the grades awarded by different high schools. It is likely that the
marking scheme in Sanlee is tougher than that in Marlee and therefore, the
students in Marlee get higher grades as compared to the students in Sanlee.
Moreover, the subjects in which the students in Marlee are doing well have not
been mentioned. It is quite likely that the high grades are in subjects other than
math and science and the students are being given homework assignments
regularly in those subjects. Hence, the performance of the students in Marlee
cannot be compared to that of the students in Sanlee and therefore, relating the
homework assigned to these students to their performance in exams is not
justified.
The statistics of the survey are questionable in their usage as valid evidence in
support of the claim made. This is because the arguer does not mention the cross-
section of teachers who were a part of the survey. There is no indication whether
the teachers who formed a part of the survey were equally distributed among all
the high schools of Attra or whether they were from selected districts. If the
survey did not contain a representation from the entire state, then the results of
the survey cannot be used to change the homework related policies for all the
high schools in the entire state. Moreover, the arguer clearly states that the
survey was carried out among math and science teachers. Therefore, the statistics
of the survey cannot be applied for assigning homework in all subjects taught in
high school as it may be necessary to give homework assignments daily in some of
the subjects.
Therefore, it can be concluded that the given argument fails to establish a relation
between assigning homework and the performance of students in their exams.
Therefore, the claim that homework should not be assigned to the students in
Attra, more than two times a week, could not be justified due to lack of adequate

A recent study suggests that people who are left-handed are more likely to
succeed in business than are right-handed people. Researchers studied
photographs of 1,000 prominent business executives and found that 21 percent
of these executives wrote with their left hand. So the percentage of prominent
business executives who are left-handed (21 percent) is almost twice the
percentage of people in the general population who are left-handed (11 percent).
Thus, people who are left-handed would be well advised to pursue a career in
business, whereas people who are right-handed would be well advised to imitate
the business practices exhibited by left-handers.
The given argument is based on the findings of a study that have led to the
recommendation that left-handed people should ideally pursue a career in
business and right-handed people should imitate the business practices that are
used by the left-handed businessmen. The evidence that is used by the arguer to
reinforce his recommendation is the study of the photographs of 1,000 prominent
business executives, 21 percent of which show the businessmen writing with their
left hands. The arguer brings out that the percentage of prominent business
executives who are left-handed is almost twice the percentage of left-handed
people in the general population. Despite the evidence provided, a closer scrutiny
of the given argument highlights various lacunae that render the argument flawed
and unconvincing.
The findings and the conclusion of the study are the weakest link in the given
argument. Simply seeing the photographs of businessmen writing with their left-
hands does not necessarily mean that they are left-handed. The may have been
marking something with their left hand when the photographs were taken. Even if
you are right-handed, you may pick up a pen with your left hand to mark
something on paper. Additionally, there are some people who are ambidextrous,
that is, they are comfortable working with both hands. Therefore, the
photographs of people writing with their left hands do not confirm that they are
left-handed.
The argument makes no mention of the cross-section of businessmen who were a
part of the study. There is no indication of the fact that the entire fraternity of
businessmen has been represented by these 1,000 prominent business
executives. Therefore, 21 percent of these businessmen cannot reflect how the
other left-handed businessmen will fare in their careers. These 1,000 prominent
business executives may have succeeded in their jobs by sheer hard work and
determination as success in life depends a lot on your talents and capabilities.
Being left-handed or right-handed has little to do with your success in business
related jobs. The photographs do not prove that the success of these business
executives is entirely due to their being left-handed.
The assumption that all left-handed people should pursue business related
careers is baseless as the argument has failed to establish a concrete link between
success in a business related career and being left-handed. Moreover, it is not
necessary that all left-handed people will have similar liking and aptitude for
business related careers. Additionally, the presumption that right-handed people
should imitate the left-handed people to succeed in business is far-fetched and
unreasonable. This is because the right-handed businessmen may have their own
way of functioning and there is no apparent reason for them to imitate the left-
handed businessmen. The argument clearly reflects that the remaining 79 percent
of the prominent business executives are right-handed as per the evidence
provided in the form of photographs. Therefore, there should be no reason for
this majority of business executives to imitate the left-handed executives who
amount to only 21 percent of the successful business executives.
Therefore, the conclusion of the argument is flawed due to the absence of

concrete evidence in its support. The argument could have been substantiated if
the arguer had provided evidence that could prove the link between being left-
handed and the competence to succeed in business. In view of the above not only
is the given argument logically unsound, but it also fails to convince the reader
that it is well-reasoned.

The following is a letter from an editor at Liber Publishing Company to the
company's president.
"In recent years, Liber has unfortunately moved away from its original mission: to
publish the works of regional small-town authors instead of those of big-city
authors. Just last year, 90 percent of the novels we published were written by
authors who maintain a residence in a big city. Although this change must have
been intended to increase profits, it has obviously backfired, because Liber is now
in serious financial trouble. The only way to address this problem is to return to
our original mission. If we return to publishing only the works of regional small-
town authors, our financial troubles will soon be resolved."
An editor at Liber Publishing Company argues that the only reason for the decline
in profits for the company is its deviation from its original mission which was to
publish the works of small-town authors. The arguer supports his claim by
presenting the fact that 90 percent of the novels that were published by the
company in the previous year have been written by authors who have residences
in big cities. He draws the conclusion that the company will be able to haul itself
out of its financial troubles if it reverts to publishing works of regional small-town
authors. The arguer fails to make the argument sound convincing due the absence
of strong and convincing evidence in its support.
The contention that the company is facing serious financial trouble because it has
strayed from its original mission is totally unconvincing. It is likely that the
publishing company is facing heavy losses due to a variety of other reasons as
well. The arguer does not discuss any other such reasons. For instance, internal
problems in the company, the market conditions and the quality of the works
being published will play an important role in determining the profits of the
company. As there is no mention of such factors, placing the entire blame on the
novels written by authors residing in the city sounds unreasonable. Additionally,
the arguer does not discuss other means to improve the profits of the company.
The company may experience a hike in its sales figures if the publications of Liber
receive enough publicity. Hence, a well-planned publicity campaign or a change in
the overall look and content of the publications may be effective in increasing the
profits of the company. This aspect had been completely left untouched by the
arguer and this makes the argument sound weak and extremely unreasonable.
It is unlikely that the authors of the novels published by the company will have a
major influence on the company's profits as the arguer had not mentioned the
other works being published by Liber Publishing Company. The company may be
dealing with publications other than novels and it is likely that these other
publications have affected the sales of the company's publications. The argument
makes no mention of the status of the other publications of the company.
Moreover, the arguer has made no mention of the percentage of Liber's
publications that are novels. It is quite likely that a very small fraction of Liber's
publications are novels and therefore, the sales of these novels will have little or
no effect on the overall profits of the company.
The arguer mentions that 90 percent of the novels have been written by authors
who have residences in the city. It is quite likely that these authors are small-town
authors and they have invested money by buying houses in the city and they are
continuing to stay in small towns only. Additionally, it is also likely that these
authors may have migrated from small towns into cities recently. Therefore, the
company has not deviated from its original mission as in both these cases the
authors can still be classified as small-town authors.
Therefore, the recommendation that reverting to the original mission will

increase the company's profitability does not seem justified as there are
numerous other ways in which the company's profits can be boosted. At the same
time, there are varied other reasons due to which the company may be
experiencing a financial crisis. Hence, in the absence of adequate evidence, the
given argument fails to convince the reader that the claim made is rightly
justified.

Sadly, widespread negative images of businesspeople have been created in large
part by television. Consider the fact that, although they make up a mere 10
percent of the characters in dramatic roles on television, businesspeople are
responsible for about one-fifth of all the crime on television shows. In fact, in a
recent survey of television producers, only 35 percent of the television roles for
businesspeople were viewed as positive ones.
The given argument draws the conclusion that television is responsible in a major
way for creating negative images of businesspeople. The arguer supports his claim
by citing two facts. The first fact is that 10 percent of the characters in dramatic
roles in television are businesspeople and this small percentage of businesspeople
is responsible for about one-fifth of all crimes committed on television shows. The
second fact cited by the arguer in support of his claim are the findings of a recent
survey of television producers which have brought out that out of all the
television roles for businesspeople, only 35 percent were positive roles. Although,
the given argument sounds convincing when it is read for the first time, a careful
study of the facts presented exposes various logical fallacies that render the
argument weak and unreasonable.
The argument rests on the assumption that the negative characters that are
businesspeople in television shows have created negative images of
businesspeople in real life. This assumption fails to sound convincing enough as
there is no indication of the negative images that are associated with
businesspeople in reality. The assumption could have been supported with a
survey of the population who feel that businesspeople actually have negative
traits. In the absence of such evidence, the claim that negative images of
businesspeople have been created seems far-fetched and unconvincing.
Moreover, the facts presented by the arguer do little to support the claim made
in the argument. Firstly, there is no description of the crimes that have been
committed by the businesspeople in television shows. It is likely that the events
labeled as crimes may be related to the world of business in which it is not rare to
go to any extent to enhance the profits accrued from businesses. Therefore, these
crimes may not succeed in associating negative images with the personalities of
businesspeople in reality as the public normally expects businesspeople to have
this kind of an attitude. If the argument had explicitly described the types of
crimes committed by the characters of businesspeople in television shows, then
the claim made by the arguer could have been substantiated to an extent.
Even if the television shows are actually creating negative images of

businesspeople, one cannot ignore the fact that the argument takes into account
only the dramatic television shows. There must be other shows on television like
those related to business news and success stories of businesspeople. It is likely
that such shows may be contradicting whatever negative images are being
created by the dramatic television shows and the overall effect may be a positive
image for the businesspeople.
The second fact presented by the arguer refers to a survey conducted on

television producers. The statistics of such a survey have little relevance in
context of the overall image of businesspeople in the eyes of the general public.
The regular viewers of these television shows are common people and only their
opinions will matter where the images of businesspeople are concerned. It is
quite likely that the reasons mentioned above have succeeded in creating a
higher percentage of television roles for businesspeople which are viewed as
positive ones by the general population. Therefore, in view of the above, it can be
concluded that the given argument is flawed in a number of respects due to the
presence of various logical fallacies. Hence, the argument fails to convince the
reader that negative images of businesspeople have been created because of the
negative characters in television shows that are businesspeople.

The following appeared as part of a recommendation made by a faculty member
to the president of a large university.
"Never once in our 150-year history as a university have we clarified our

objectives. How, then, can we hope to adapt as an institution to the new
challenges facing higher education. As a first step in this evolutionary process,
therefore, we should send out questionnaires asking faculty members why they
teach, asking students what they want from this university, and asking former
students what they gained from their own education here. When the replies
come in, we can tabulate them and formulate an official statement of our
educational mission. This will surely result in improved programs at our
university."
A faculty member makes the recommendation, to the president of a university,

that the official statement of their educational mission can be tabulated by
sending out questionnaires to the faculty members, present students and former
students of the university. The arguer asserts that this plan of action will result in
improving the programs at the university. The reason for carrying out this
procedure for outlining the university's educational mission has been cited by the
arguer as the fact that the university's objectives have never been clarified in the
150-year long history of the university. A careful study of the recommendation
along with the accompanying evidence shows that the evidence is weak and it
fails to support the recommendation made by the faculty member.
Firstly, the argument starts at a highly unconvincing note. How can a university
that is 150 years old have objectives that have not been clarified even once in its
history? The fact that this argument has been put forth by a single faculty
member makes the claim further dubious. It is likely that the faculty member has
not carried out an in-depth research into the history of the university. This
statement would have sounded convincing if it had been the result of a study
carried out by more than one faculty member. The objectives of the university
would have been clearly defined when the university was established. However, it
is likely that with the passage of time the objectives had to be clarified time and
again in order to keep in step with the changing times. Additionally, the argument
classifies the university as a large university. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that
the objectives have never been clarified even once in the 150-year old history of
the university.
Even if we consider the opening statement made by the arguer to be true and the
objectives have never been clarified in the last 150 year', the procedure outlined
by the argument for arriving at the university's educational mission is highly
questionable. How can a questionnaire be termed as a reliable source of
gathering information for working out the official statement of the educational
mission of a large university? It is quite likely that the faculty members and the
students filling out the questionnaires take them lightly and they just fill in
whatever comes to their mind without spending time to ponder over the
questions asked.
Faculty members may not be able to give a reasonable or correct answer to the
question about why they teach. Similarly, a student who has just joined the
university may not be in a position to clearly outline what he expects from the
university. Students who have already passed out from the university will
probably be busy in their jobs and they will not have the time to contemplate on
the answer to the question as to what they have gained from their education in
the university. The argument does not specify the method that will be used by the
authorities to separate the seriously answered questionnaires from the ones
which have been left half-answered or which have been filled up carelessly. In
view of the above, it is obvious that this method for gathering information for
outlining the educational mission for a large university is totally unsound and full
of logical flaws.
The given argument could have sounded convincing and well-reasoned if it had
been put forth after a study done by a team of researchers. Additionally, the
arguer could have explored other avenues like holding discussions with students
and faculty members to work out the educational mission of the university. This
would have strengthened the argument further. In the absence of crucial
evidence, the given argument fails to validate the claim made therein.

There is a general idea that a translation always fails to preserve some of the
qualities that distinguish the original work - i.e., that 'something always gets lost
in translation.' Writers, critics, and the general reading public unthinkingly accept
this clich. But this belief is unwarranted: translators are sometimes distinguished
authors themselves, and some authors may even translate their own works. As
the translator pointed out in the preface to an English version of Dante's works,
the violin and the piano make different sounds, but they can play what is
recognizably the same piece of music.
The given argument contradicts the common belief that translation fails to
preserve the quality of the original work. This contradiction is supported by two
facts. The first one is that translators are sometimes authors themselves and they
may translate their own works, thus managing to preserve the qualities of the
original works. The second fact presented by the arguer is the preface to an
English version of Dante's works where it is mentioned that although the violin
and the piano make different sounds, they can play the same piece of music. The
contention made by the arguer is unconvincing despite the facts presented in its
support. This is because the facts presented by the arguer fail to convince the
reader that the conclusion drawn by the argument is justified.
Although, it is true that some translators are authors themselves, this does not
hold true for the entire fraternity of translators and therefore, this fact fails to
substantiate the claim that there will be no loss of quality when original work is
converted to its translated version. There are times when works of well-known
authors have to be translated into several languages. It is not necessary that all
authors will be equally proficient in a variety of foreign languages. There are
bound to be some versions of the work which have been converted into some
foreign language with the assistance of a translator. In today's world, there are
numerous people who are purely translators and there are companies that
exclusively carry out translations of the works of small authors as well as well-
known authors.
It is not necessary that there will be no loss of quality even if the translator and
the author of the original work are the same. This is essentially because
translation involves rewriting the original work in a different language. No two
languages are the same as far as the expression of feelings and description of
events are concerned. Each language describes the environment around us in a
specific manner and another language may not be able to express the same
environment up to exactly the same level. This is because the adjectives used in a
particular language to describe something may not carry exactly the same
connotation or the same level when expressed in another language. Therefore,
there is bound to be some loss of quality when the original work is translated into
another language either by the author himself or by a translator.
Language and music are not comparable in the context of the given argument.
Therefore, the second fact cited by the arguer does nothing to substantiate the
claim made in the argument. Different instruments like the violin and piano make
different sounds but both the instruments can be used to produce similar pieces
of music. Music can easily be composed in such a way that different instruments
play the same piece of music in such a way that they sound similar to the listener.
However, the same cannot be said about a language which is an entirely different
form of art. The expression of a feeling has to be exactly the same in its translated
form which is very difficult in view of the reasons mentioned in the preceding
paragraph. Moreover, one cannot refute the fact that the music will definitely
sound different due to the difference in the sounds produced by different
instruments.
In view of the above, it is evident that the argument is not well-reasoned due the
presence of inadequate evidence which eventually fails to substantiate the
argument. Therefore, the belief that there is a loss in the quality of the original
work whenever a translation is carried out is rightly justified.

There is a general idea that waiters and waitresses are more likely to receive
larger gratuities from large groups of people. A recent research study suggests
this is not true. The researchers examined the relationship between the size of
tips in restaurants and the number of meals charged on the bill. They found that,
while most tips were around 15 percent, the minimum percentage considered
appropriate, people dining alone tipped consistently more (19 percent) and those
dining in groups of four or more tipped considerably less (13 percent) than this 15
percent standard. These results strongly suggest that people dining in a group are
less likely to feel personally responsible for leaving an adequate or generous tip.
The given argument rests on the suggestion made by a recent study that it is not
necessary that waiters and waitresses receive larger tips from large groups of
people. The evidence provided by the argument is in the form of the findings of
the study that include statistics related to the size of the tips and the number of
meals charged on bills. The study suggests that people who dined alone generally
tipped about 19 percent which is more than the percentage considered as an
appropriate tip; whereas people dining in groups of four or more tipped around
13 percent which is less than 15 percent, the appropriate percentage for a tip.
The study concludes that people who are dining in a group are less likely to leave
a generous tip as compared to those who are dining alone. Although, the
argument sounds well-reasoned when read for the first time, a subsequent
reading brings to light various flaws in the evidence provided by the study thereby
rendering the argument logically flawed.
Firstly, the argument rests on the findings of a study the conduct of which is
questionable. There is no indication of either the cross-section of the people or
the types of restaurants that were included in this study. This is a very essential
part of any kind of study. As the argument gives no information regarding the
people and the restaurants that were a part of this study, the statistics arrived at
by the study are highly dubious. The category of people who were a part of the
study will greatly influence the statistics of the study.
It is quite likely that the individuals who paid higher tips belonged to the affluent
class and hence, they were able to give generous tips. Additionally, it is likely that
the people who were a part of the study for the payment of tips in groups
belonged to the student fraternity as they are the ones who are likely to go out
and dine in groups and therefore, they gave lesser tips due to their financial
constraints. Moreover, it is likely that the people that were dining in groups were
large families from that section of society who cannot afford to give generous
tips. The argument makes no mention of the types of restaurants that were
included in the study. There are certain high-rated hotels like 5 star hotels where
it is obligatory to give a generous tip whenever you dine there. On the other
hand, there are certain small-town restaurants where it is not a common custom
to give large tips.
Moreover, the argument fails to address the issue related to the occasion on
which people were dining in groups. If the occasion was a party being thrown by
someone, it is ultimately an individual who is footing the bill and paying the tip.
Therefore, the small tip is being given by an individual and it is not the individuals
in the group who are feeling less responsible for leaving a generous tip. On the
contrary, it is likely that when the occasion is a happy one like a birthday or a
wedding anniversary, the waiters and waitresses are more likely to get a generous
tip when the people are dining in a group.
The argument could have been substantiated if the study had used the same
cross-section of people. For instance, if the study consisted of the statistics
related to the tips when the same set of people dined alone and when they dined
in a group in the same restaurants. Therefore, the absence of information related
to the occasion when people were dining in groups and also the types of people
and restaurants that were a part of the study makes the argument weak and
unconvincing.

Statistics collected from dentists indicate that three times more men than women
faint while visiting the dentist. This evidence suggests that men are more likely to
be distressed about having dental work done than women are. Thus, dentists who
advertise to attract patients should target the male consumer and emphasize
both the effectiveness of their anesthetic techniques and the sensitivity of their
staff to nervous or suffering patients.
The given argument suggests that men are more distressed as compared to
women when they have an appointment with the dentist. The argument is based
on the evidence, collected from dentists, which indicates that three times more
men than women faint while visiting the dentist. The arguer uses the above-
mentioned assumption and evidence to draw the conclusion that dentists should
now focus on attracting male patients by highlighting their effective anesthetic
techniques and bringing out the qualities of their staff that are adept in handling
nervous patients. The argument is plagued by logical flaws that fail to convince
the reader that the conclusion is justified.
The backbone of the given argument is the statistics that have been collected
from dentists. However, the statistics are found to be inadequate to prove the
conclusion that has been drawn. Firstly, there is no mention of the number of
dentists who were a part of the survey. The arguer does not confirm that they
represent the entire dentist fraternity in such a way that the statistics collected
from them can be utilized to make such a sweeping statement related to the
dental profession as the conclusion made by this argument.
The argument relies on the assumption that men faint while visiting the dentist as
they are distressed about the pending dental work. The arguer does not mention
the other reasons that may have led to a higher number of men fainting as
compared to women. It is likely that the men who were a part of the statistics
were older as compared to the women and therefore, their age played a major
part in their falling unconscious while visiting the dentist. Additionally, it is likely
that the number of men, visiting the dentists who had provided the statistics,
were more than the number of women. In such a case, the statistics would be
lopsided and the assumption based on the statistics would be entirely false.
There is no indication in the argument that proves that a higher number of men
are fainting as compared to the women because they are not aware of the
benefits of anesthesia or because they do not know that the dentists' staff is
sensitive to the needs of nervous patients. Therefore, in the absence of evidence
that proves such a relationship, the conclusion that advertising these aspects will
help in attracting men to dental clinics is highly unconvincing. Moreover, the
argument does not explicitly prove that such an advertisement will attract only
men and not women. Additionally, there is no indication of how effective
advertisements have been in attracting patients in the past. In view of the above
factors, it cannot be assumed that the proposed advertisements will succeed in
having the intended effect.
The argument could have been substantiated if the arguer had presented
sufficient evidence to prove that none of the other reasons is applicable and
therefore, the men are actually fainting due the distress related to dental work. In
such a case, the conclusion of the argument would have been justified as the
advertisement would have alleviated the fear of visiting the dentist and would
have led to a lesser number of men fainting before visiting the dentist. Moreover,
the argument could have been strengthened further by providing accurate details
of the statistics being referred to in the argument. In the absence of such
evidence, the argument sounds highly unconvincing and logically unstable.

The citizens of Forsythe have adopted healthier lifestyles. Their responses to a
recent survey show that in their eating habits they conform more closely to
government nutritional recommendations than they did ten years ago.
Furthermore, there has been a fourfold increase in sales of food products
containing kiran, a substance that a scientific study has shown reduces
cholesterol. This trend is also evident in reduced sales of sulia, a food that few of
the healthiest citizens regularly eat.
The given argument contends that the citizens of Forsythe have now switched to
a healthy lifestyle. The arguer utilizes three facts to substantiate this claim. The
first fact is that the responses of the citizens to a recent survey show that their
eating habits now conform to the government nutritional recommendations more
than they did ten years ago. The second fact is that there has been an exponential
increase in the sales of food products that contain a cholesterol reducing
substance known as kiran. The last fact is that there has been a reduction the
sales of sulia which is a food product that is not eaten regularly by healthy people.
Despite the evidence presented by the arguer, the argument is not persuasive
enough in order to convince the reader that the citizens of Forsythe have indeed
switched to a healthy lifestyle.
A major lacuna in the given argument is the absence of details regarding the
survey which has provided the first fact in support of the claim made by the
arguer. As the method of conduct of the survey is questionable, the conclusion
arrived at by studying the statistics of the survey cannot be deemed as reliable.
There is no mention of the people who were a part of the survey. It is likely that
the survey took into account a disproportionate number of young people who are
probably more health conscious than the older generation and hence, the
difference in eating habits as compared to the ones that existed ten years ago is
seen. In such a case, the statistics cannot hold true for all the citizens of Forsythe
and hence the conclusion of the argument is baseless. The argument could have
been strengthened if the arguer had included details of the cross-section of
people who were a part of the survey in such a way that their responses could
have reflected the lifestyle of all the citizens of Forsythe.
The second and third facts presented by the arguer do little to substantiate the
claim made in the argument. This is because the arguer fails to establish a
concrete link between leading healthier lifestyles and the increasing sales of
products containing kiran or the declining sales of sulia. It is likely that the citizens
of Forsythe are buying food products that contain kiran in very small amounts
which does little to help them lead healthy lifestyles. Additionally, it is possible
that the food product experiencing a boom in sales is actually junk food and it
contains kiran in traces. Hence, these food products are actually having an
adverse effect on the health of the citizens of Forsythe. There is no mention of
the nutritional content of sulia. It is likely that sulia has high nutritional value, but
the healthy citizens do not like to have it because of its taste or other reasons.
Even if sulia is an unhealthy food, it is likely that its sales are declining due to
other reasons like low production of the food product. It is not necessary that the
citizens have willingly stopped buying sulia as a result of their adoption of healthy
lifestyles. Therefore, the argument fails to establish a link between the sales of
these food products and the healthy lifestyles of the citizens of Forsythe.
In the absence of evidence that proves beyond doubt that the survey was
conducted amongst people who represented the entire population of Forsyth, the
assumption that the eating habits of people conform more closely to government
nutritional recommendations than they did ten years ago cannot be termed as
reliable. Moreover, there is no concrete evidence in support of the fact that sulia
is an unhealthy food and it is for this reason that it is being avoided by healthy
people. In view of the above, the given argument is highly unconvincing in its
present form.

Humans arrived in the Kaliko Islands about 7,000 years ago, and within 3,000
years most of the large mammal species that had lived in the forests of the Kaliko
Islands had become extinct. Yet humans cannot have been a factor in the species'
extinctions, because there is no evidence that the humans had any significant
contact with the mammals. Further, archaeologists have discovered numerous
sites where the bones of fish had been discarded, but they found no such areas
containing the bones of large mammals, so the humans cannot have hunted the
mammals. Therefore, some climate change or other environmental factor must
have caused the species' extinctions.
In this argument, the author concludes that humans were not a factor in the
extinction of large mammal species found in the Kaliko islands 7,000 years ago.
The author has tried to justify his statements by pointing out that there is no
evidence that the humans had any significant contact with the mammals.
According to him, while archeologists have found bones of discarded fish in the
islands, they have not found any discarded mammal bones there. However, the
author has not considered the possibility that humans might have exported the
parts of mammals especially bones during that period. The author has completely
overlooked this possibility. Without considering this explanation, he has jumped
to the conclusion that humans were not a factor in their extinction from the
islands. There is also a possibility that the humans hunted the large mammals for
food, and disposed the bones as well so that none was left behind as evidence.
There are many cultures that destroy the bones and all other parts of mammals.
Hence, this could be a reason that there was simply nothing left of the mammals
to be found by the archaeologists. Hence, this point taken by the author is not
valid.
This argument depends upon the author's assumption that without significant
contact with these mammal species, humans could not have been a factor in their
extinction. It might be that the humans had not done anything significant to these
animals, but intruded their territory and natural habitat. As a result, these animals
might have left their living areas. There is also a possibility of the humans
destroying the food sources of the mammal species knowingly or unknowingly.
Perhaps the humans consumed the plants and animals on which these species
relied for their existence. These days many species are facing extinction due not
to the animals being killed by humans, but by the elimination of their food
sources and habitats. The humans are encroaching upon their living spaces to
accommodate their increasing population. The author has failed to address these
possibilities. Hence, it critically weakens the argument.
Lastly, the author has assumed that the bones of fish that archeologists have
found discarded on the island were discarded by human beings, and not by some
other large animal. However, the speaker has provided no evidence to support
this assumption. The same thing applies to the mammals also. Hence, this
evidence lends little credibility to the author's theory about the extinction of large
species of mammals.
The evidence given by the author in his support is very unconvincing. To

strengthen his argument, the speaker should have ruled out the possibility that
humans exported the bones of these other species or that some other animal has
not eaten these species. The author must have collected information about the
food habits of the humans and these mammal species during that time. That
would have helped to evaluate the actual reason for the extinction of these
species. Without the right information, this argument is pure speculation and
cannot be justified.

At the small, nonprofit hospital in the town of Saluda, the average length of a
patient's stay is two days; at the large, for-profit hospital in the nearby city of
Megaville, the average patient stay is six days. Also, the cure rate among patients
in the Saluda hospital is about twice that of the Megaville hospital. The Saluda
hospital has more employees per patient than the hospital in Megaville, and there
are few complaints about service at the local hospital. Such data indicate that
treatment in smaller, nonprofit hospitals is more economical and of better quality
than treatment in larger, for-profit hospitals.
In this argument, the author has compared two hospitals and concluded that
treatment in smaller and nonprofit hospitals is more economical and of better
quality than treatment in larger, for-profit hospitals. However, the author has
failed to provide strong evidence in favor of his statement. This argument has
many flaws hence it seems very unconvincing.
Firstly, the author has talked about the shorter stay of patients in the small,
nonprofit hospital than in the larger hospital. However, he has not mentioned the
number of patients and the type of illness for which they were admitted in the
two hospitals. The author has not taken the aspect into consideration that every
illness takes its own course to be treated. Moreover, a shorter stay does not
mean that the patient is fully cured. Hence, comparison of Saluda and Megaville
hospitals on this basis is not convincing.
Secondly, the author has mentioned that the cure rate among patients in the
Saluda hospital is twice that in Megaville hospital. Here again, the type of disease
plays an important role. Usually, small hospitals do not have many specialist
departments and so the patients suffering from minor ailments are admitted
there. Therefore, their stay might be for a smaller period. Patients can take
admission in smaller hospitals due to some emergency, and when the emergency
is taken care of, they can go to bigger hospitals for treatment. The patients
suffering from serious disease usually go to bigger hospitals where the specialists
are available for almost all the diseases and hence they are sure of good
treatment. Hence, they stay at the bigger hospitals for longer periods.
Thirdly, according to the author, the number of employees per patient is more at
the Saluda hospital as compared to the Megaville hospital. However, as we do not
know about the number of patients at both the hospitals we cannot compare
them at this point. It might be that the Saluda hospital has less number of
patients, hence more number of employees per patient are available. One more
point that the author has mentioned is that there are few complaints at the
smaller hospitals. The author has not thought that the reason behind this could
be that their stay at the hospital was for a short duration of two days and they
suffered from minor illness. Since the treatment is also low cost in a non-profit
hospital, patients do not complain much.
The author has concluded this argument just on the basis of two hospitals. This
data is not sufficient to judge all the hospitals. There should have been more
evidence to conclude that smaller hospitals are economical than the bigger
hospitals.
Finally, the author has stated that the quality of treatment at the smaller hospitals
is better that that of larger hospitals. This statement cannot be justified until we
know the type of diseases treated at the two hospitals. The data provided is too
less.
In conclusion, the argument provided by the author is very weak. He should have
the cases of some more hospitals, the number of patients treated there, the
illness of patients, the cost of their treatment etc. It would have strengthened the
argument.

With continuing publicity about the need for healthful diets, and with new
research about the harmful effects of eating too much sugar, nationwide demand
for sugar will no doubt decline. Therefore, farmers in our state should use the
land on which they currently grow sugar cane to grow peanuts, a food that is rich
in protein and low in sugar. Farmers in the neighboring country of Palin greatly
increased their production of peanuts last year, and their total revenues from that
crop were quite high.
In this argument, the author has claimed that the nationwide demand for sugar
will decline due to publicity of health diets and the new research about the
harmful effects of sugar. The writer then concludes that farmers in his state
should grow peanuts rather than sugar cane. However, this argument is placed on
false assumptions and hence, do not convince the readers.
Firstly, need and publicity for a healthy diet or research about the ill effects of
sugar do not prove that people of the author's country eat too much sugar or
they do not eat a healthy diet already. There is a possibility that the existing sugar
intake of the population is not a problem, therefore there does not need to be a
reduction in the amount of sugar eaten. Therefore, with no need to reduce the
amount of sugar eaten, demand is unlikely to decline. The author has not
produced any support for his conclusion that the demand for sugar is going to
decline. There is no direct cause and effect relationship between the demand and
the publicity about the need for a healthful diet and / or new research about the
harmful effects of eating too much sugar. It weakens the author's argument.
Secondly, the author has recommended that farmers in his state should use the
land on which they currently grow sugar cane to grow peanuts. However, he has
not considered that sugar and peanut are very different crops and might need
different types of soil and environmental conditions. He should have
demonstrated his statement with evidence that the farmers can actually make
this transition. Moreover, it is also not clear that even if consumers will decrease
their sugar consumption, they will increase peanut consumption. This is also a
wrong assumption as peanuts and sugar are no way substitutes for each other.
Even assuming that this state's population is concerned about a healthful diet or
the harmful effects of eating too much sugar, there is no evidence presented for
the growing of peanuts instead of sugar.
In the end, the author has mentioned that farmers in the neighboring country of
Palin greatly increased their production of peanuts last year, and their total
revenues from that crop were quite high. Again, the author has assumed many
things on his own. He has not compared the soil conditions and climatic factors of
the two countries. Moreover, the demand of peanut might be more in Palin. The
author has not provided any data that would compare the two countries' people,
their food habits, their climate, soil etc. Anyways, what happened in a country
cannot be applied in a neighboring country without any research. Hence, the
author cannot justifiably rely on the profitability of Palin's peanut farms to
conclude that peanut farms in the author's country would be just as profitable.
Hence, the author's argument is unconvincing. The author should have

strengthened his argument with more data and facts. He should have
demonstrated that the demand for peanuts and the revenue from peanut
production in this country are likely to match the current demand for sugar and
farm revenue from sugar production, respectively. In addition, he should have
analyzed the consumer tastes, soil, and climatic conditions in his country.

The following appeared in a recommendation from the president of Amburg's
Chamber of Commerce.
Last October the city of Belleville installed high intensity lighting in its central
business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately. The city of
Amburg has recently begun police patrols on bicycles in its business district but
the rate of vandalism there remains constant. Since high intensity lighting is
apparently the most effective way to combat crime, we should install such
lighting throughout Amburg. By reducing crime in this way, we can revitalize the
declining neighborhoods in our city.
The president of Amburg's Chamber of Commerce has recommended installing

high intensity lighting in its central business district. He has supported his
argument by pointing out that when Belleville took similar action vandalism
declined there almost immediately. As per the president, Amburg has recently
begun police patrols in its business districts but the situation has not improved.
However, the argument is not well supported and flawed.
First of all, the author has falsely assumed that the situation in Belleville has
improved after installation of high intensity lighting. The author has failed to
support his assumption that there was not any other measure adopted by the city
of Belleville to stop vandalism. There is a possibility that around the same time
the city added police units or more after-school youth programs. It might be
possible that initially there was a decline in the vandalism but after sometime
vandals have grown accustomed to the lighting and are no longer deterred by it.
Without ruling out all other feasible options, it is wrong to conclude the
argument. Even if, we assume that installing high intensity lighting worked in
Belleville, it cannot be said with surety that the same course of action will work in
Amburg also.
Secondly, according to the president Amburg's bicycle patrol has been ineffective
in deterring vandalism. It is a hastily taken assumption. There might be some
other factors like a demographic shift or worsening economic conditions that
have served to increase vandalism, while the bicycle patrol has offset that
increase. Hence, the president should have insisted on finding the other
conditions affecting the incidence of vandalism to support his recommendation.
Finally, the president has falsely assumed that high-intensity lighting and bicycle
patrolling are Amburg's only possible means of reducing crime. In all likelihood,
there are a myriad of other choices such as social programs and juvenile legal-
system reforms. Moreover, vandalism is not the only crime in Amburg. The
president should have given evidence to prove that high-intensity lighting would
deter other types of crime to strengthen his statement.
Further as per the president, reducing crime would result in a revitalization of city
neighborhoods is unwarranted. There is no evidence that the decline of Amburg's
city neighborhoods is attributed to the crime rate in Amburg's central business
district and not to some other factors. It might be that decline in neighborhood is
due to availability of cheaper and more attractive housing in suburbs of the city.
This is also not clear from the statement that whether the neighborhoods in
decline are located within the central business district or not. The president has
not considered all these factors before concluding this debate. He should have
explored other means to decrease just not vandalism but other crimes as well in
Amburg.
Hence, it can be said that the recommendations of the president are not well
supported. He should have supported his argument by showing that the decline in
vandalism in Belleville was a lasting one and it was attributed to the high intensity
lighting. The president must also show that lighting would be more effective than
any other means at Amburg's disposal to reduce overall crime rates in Amburg.

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Parkville Daily Newspaper.
"Throughout the country last year, as more and more children below the age of
nine participated in youth-league softball and soccer, over 80,000 of these young
players suffered injuries. When interviewed for a recent study, youth-league
softball players in several major cities also reported psychological pressure from
coaches and parents to win games. Furthermore, education experts say that long
practice sessions for these sports take away time that could be used for academic
activities. Since the disadvantages apparently outweigh any advantages, we in
Parkville should discontinue organized athletic competition for children under
nine."
In this argument, the author has discussed the problem of children under 9 years
playing softball and soccer. According to the author, the people of Parkville
should not organize athletic competition for children under nine. As per the
author, throughout the country, there were over 80,000 of these players, who
participated in youth-league softball and soccer last year and they suffered
serious injuries. The author's argument looks justified in the first look. However, if
we look at the data offered by him to support his argument, it does not seem
convincing. A careful study and discussion can reveal that the letter is groundless
and has several flaws.
Firstly, the author has given a number of 80000 children being injured. However,
this is incomplete information as nowhere has the author mentioned the number
of children who actually played the game. The absolute data provided by the
author does not reflect the real seriousness of young players who suffered
injuries. If the author wants us to assess the actual situation of young players who
suffered injuries, then he should have dished out the ratio of young players
injured, not the mere number of young players.
The second evidence produced by the writer is based on a study done in some
major cities where these young softball players are facing pressure from their
coaches and parents. There is a possibility that these big cities' people are
comparatively aggressive in competition, and therefore, they push their children
more as compared to the parents from a small city. Hence, their kids are more
likely to suffer from mental pressure. Moreover, the result acquired only through
studying several major cities cannot represent all cities. Without accurate
information, it is unjustified to propose to drop out athletic competitions in
Parkville.
Another support sought by the author for his argument is that education experts
say that long practice sessions for these sports take away time that could be used
for academic activities. Here again the author has not provided any logical
evidence. Such sports provide the children some break from their studies that
helps them to have more progress in academic courses. Moreover, athletic
activities help in the growth of children and hence, can enhance one person's
physical condition. Therefore, the author's recommendation of giving up all the
athletic competition is obviously groundless.
In conclusion, the letter's recommendation and its evidence are unconvincing.

The author has taken the help of an unconvincing study, which cannot be
representative of all the cities of the country. To strengthen the letter, the author
should have provided some solid information as the ratio of the young players
who were injured in Parkville to prove that athletic competition has more
disadvantages than advantages.

It is known that in recent years, industrial pollution has caused the Earth's ozone
layer to thin, allowing an increase in the amount of ultraviolet radiation that
reaches the Earth's surface. At the same time, scientists have discovered, the
population of a species of salamander that lays its eggs in mountain lakes has
declined. Since ultraviolet radiation is known to be damaging to delicate tissues
and since salamander eggs have no protective shells, it must be the case that the
increase in ultraviolet radiation has damaged many salamander eggs and
prevented them from hatching. This process will no doubt cause population
declines in other species, just as it has in the salamander species.
In this argument, the author has mentioned that due to the increased industrial
pollution, the Earth's ozone layer has decreased and hence, more ultraviolet rays
reach the Earth's surface. The author further says that according to the discovery
of scientists, the population of a species of Salamander, which stays in mountain
lakes, has decreased. The author cites that the reason for decreased population of
Salamander is ultraviolet rays, as these rays prevent the eggs of salamander from
hatching. Hence, the same ultraviolet radiations will affect the population of
other species also. There is no doubt that pollution is a problem and a cause for
global warming. It has disturbed the habitats of many species and is a threat to
the animal and plant kingdom. However, there are some logical flaws in the
author's argument. The reasons given by the author are not convincing.
First of all, the author has completely assumed that the cause of depletion of
ozone layer is industry. This point itself is not correct. There are many other
factors like increase in vehicular pollution, water pollution, air pollution etc. that
cause pollution and are responsible for the decline in ozone layer of the Earth.
Anyways, industries are normally built in the areas where there are no
inhabitants. Hence, to assume that the cause of pollution is only industries is not
correct.
Moreover, the author has not provided any evidence, which will prove the
relation between the decline in the salamander population and the ultraviolet
rays. The argument is completely based on the assumption that whatever
damages happened were because of the thinning of the ozone layer, which is not
worth consideration. The author has not considered studying the effect of
ultraviolet radiations on salamander eggs. Hence, this reason of the author is not
worth consideration.
Another reason, which the author has cited, is that salamander eggs have no
protective shells and it must be the reason why the increase in ultraviolet
radiation has damaged many salamander eggs. However, the author has ignored
the fact that since the eggs are not protected by a shell, there is a possibility that
some other species in the mountain lake has damaged the eggs. The author has
not provided any data about the exact decline in the population of salamander.
Moreover, salamander is found in mountain lakes. It is also possible that their

population is decreasing in mountain lakes but in other locations, the salamander
population is increasing. The author should have considered all these factors
before concluding the argument.
Although the author's point that decline in the ozone layer is not good for the
Earth's atmosphere, is correct, we cannot take the author's statement as it is that
ultraviolet rays do not allow salamander eggs to hatch and hence, are responsible
for the decline in salamander population. The author has not provided any
evidence in his support. There is no data provided to set a relation between the
study done by scientists and ultraviolet radiation. The author should have ruled
out other possibilities like water pollution or some other species in mountain
lakes damaging the eggs to strengthen his argument.

The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an
electric power company.
"Several recent surveys indicate that homeowners are increasingly eager to

conserve energy and manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances,
such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy-
efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home
insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy
needed for home heating. Therefore, we anticipate that the total demand for
electricity in our area will not increase, and may decline slightly. Since our three
electric generating plants in operation for the past 20 years have always met our
needs, construction of new generating plants should not be necessary."
The author has concluded this argument by saying that there is no need for an
additional electric power plant in the area because the total electricity demand in
the area is not likely to increase in the future. He has supported his conclusion by
citing the availability of new energy-efficient home appliances and systems for
homes, and the eagerness of area homeowners to conserve energy. However, the
argument loosely relies on several doubtful assumptions, and is therefore
unconvincing.
Firstly, the author has talked about homeowners who are increasingly eager to
conserve energy and manufacturers who are now marketing many home
appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners that are energy efficient.
However, he has very conveniently ignored industries and offices. The author has
not considered that business and commercial electricity usage is much more than
what is used in homes. There is a possibility that businesses in the area will
increase their use of electricity in the future and that total electricity consumption
will actually increase despite declining residential demand of electric power.
The author's statement also ignores the possibility of increase in population in

that area. Hence, an increase in population would result in an increase in
electricity usage even if homeowners use appliances that are more electricity
efficient. Without taking into account all these possibilities, the author cannot
conclude the argument by saying that the total demand for electricity will not
increase in the future and therefore, there is no need to construct a new
generating plant.
The next point that the author raises is that homeowners are eager to conserve
energy. Even then, it is entirely possible that the residents will not be able to
afford these new systems and appliances. The author is totally dependent on the
assumption that the area residents will actually purchase and install the energy-
saving appliances and systems the author is talking about.
Moreover, the author has not mentioned whether new technologies for better
home insulation and passive solar heating will be effective for only newly
constructed homes or these technologies will also work in the existing homes.
Finally, the author is assuming that no new electric power plants are needed
because the three existing plants, which are 20 years old, have always been
adequate for the area's electricity needs. Again, the author has not considered
that the 20 year old power plants themselves are using old technologies and
hence, might be less energy efficient. While the new plants with new technologies
and energy saving machines will be much more efficient. Anyways, machines in
the old plants have to be replaced after some time.
Hence, all these points are against the author's assertion. He has not supported
his argument with strong evidence. The author must have supported his
statement by showing that the area residents can afford the new energy-efficient
appliances and systems and the electricity demand of the businesses in that area
will also not increase in the near future. He should have explored whether the
new energy-efficient technologies are available for businesses as well, and
whether area businesses also plan to use them. The author should have studied
about the expected changes in the area's population, and about the condition and
energy-efficiency of the three existing electric power plants.

The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources Manager to
the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company.
"In the last three quarters of this year, under the leadership of our president, Pat
Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably. Thus, we should ask for her resignation
in return for a generous severance package. In Pat's place, we should appoint
Rosa Winnings. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry, a company whose
profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Although we will
have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth
it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably."
This argument is based on the recommendation made by the Human Resources

Manager to the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company. In this argument,
the HR manager at Fancy Toy Company recommends replacing the company's
current president, Pat Salvo, with Rosa Winnings, who is currently president of
Starlight Jewelry. However, this argument is based on faulty reasoning and is
unconvincing. There is a complete lack of evidence to support its conclusion.
In the first place, the Human Resources Manager assumes that the falling profits
of the Fancy Toy Company are the fault of the current president but gives no
reason for such an assumption. Without providing any evidence, he is asking the
president to take the responsibility for the falling profits and hence, resign. There
are a number of other factors, which could be the cause for falling profits that
might be completely out of the president's control. For example, changes in the
currency's exchange rate, or a bad economic situation either in the home market
or in an important market abroad, or a natural disaster that caused extraordinary
expenses for the company. There are chances that the cost of the raw materials
or labor has increased on which the president has no authority. The author has
not mentioned anywhere that the falling profits are due to some specific actions
or wrong decisions of the current president. Without providing any proof that the
falling profits were actually caused by the actions or inactions of the current
president, there is no point of asking her to resign.
Secondly, the author has recommended appointing Rosa Winnings as the
president of the company. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry. Again,
the author has assumed that Rosa is responsible for the profitability of the
company. The manager has not provided any evidence to confirm this
assumption. There might be many other factors like low prices of metal, low labor
cost or increase in demand for jewelry, which are actually responsible for the
company's increasing profits. There is no data provided which will prove that the
company has actually benefited in the work period of Rosa.
Moreover, it is not mentioned anywhere whether Rosa Winnings has any idea of
running a toy company. Jewelry business is entirely different from the toy
business. Both the businesses have different target customers. Hence, she might
not be successful in toy business.
In this argument, the author has also talked about giving double salary to Rosa
Winnings than the existing president's salary. There is also a recommendation of
giving a generous severance package to Pat Salvo. This will be an additional
burden on the company's declining income. The author has not considered that
any increase in profits of the company would have to be big enough to overcome
a huge increase in the budget.
The argument is totally based on speculations. The author has ignored many
important facts and not presented any evidence to show that the current
president is in any way responsible for the toy company's declining profits.
Neither has he supported his idea that the current president of Starlight Jewelry is
qualified enough to lead the toy company. Hence, his conclusion cannot be
accepted.

The following is a letter to the editor of a news magazine.
"Clearly, the successful use of robots on missions to explore outer space in the
past 20 years demonstrates that robots could be increasingly used to perform
factory work more effectively, efficiently, and profitably than human factory
workers. The use of robots in factories would offer several advantages. First,
robots never get sick, so absenteeism would be reduced. Second, robots do not
make mistakes, so factories would increase their output. Finally, the use of robots
would also improve the morale of factory workers, since factory work can be so
boring that many workers would be glad to shift to more interesting kinds of
tasks."
In this argument, the author has concluded that using robots for factory work
would improve factory efficiency. The author has concluded the editorial by citing
the fact that robots have been used effectively in many space missions in the last
20 years. In addition, the author claims that the use of robots in factories would
reduce absenteeism because robots never get sick, improve output because
robots do not make errors, and improve factory-worker morale because these
workers can shift to less boring jobs. However, the author's argument is
unconvincing in several critical respects.
This argument depends on the hasty assumption that the kind of work that robots
perform in space is similar to the work done in factories. Actually, there is a huge
difference between the two environments. It is not necessary that robots would
be as effective in factory jobs as they are in space missions. The danger in outer
space exploration is much more than the danger involved in factory work. Hence,
it is much more feasible to use robots rather than humans for such dangerous
work. The effectiveness of robots in space missions might be due to the
weightless environment of space or may be the average space-mission robot
performs less work than a typical factory robot would be required to perform.
Therefore, it is wrong on the author's part to compare the two types of work and
assume that robots will be effective in factory work also.
The next argument, which the author cites, is that robots do not fall sick but he
has not considered the fact that robots get damaged, wear out, or break down. In
that case, it is very difficult to repair or replace a robot. A robot may actually not
be absent from the workplace, but it still may not be able to fulfill its assigned
duties. Moreover, if a human being falls sick, it is easy to ask another person to
work in his place but it is difficult to replace a damaged robot. The author's claim
that the use of robots would increase factory output because robots do not make
errors is also questionable. The author has forgotten that the robots are
programmed by their human masters. Moreover, robots can do only the work for
which they are programmed, while their human counterparts are flexible in many
respects. The author has not offered any evidence to prove that output of
factories would increase if they replace their factory workers with robots.
Finally, the writer said that the morale of factory workers would improve if robots
were used in factories as they can change their jobs to more interesting jobs.
However, the author has not provided assurance that if factory workers were
reassigned to other types of jobs their morale would improve. On the contrary,
the working environment will be more tense as there will be less interpersonal
interaction. It might hurt the morale and sentiments of workers. In addition,
those who are left will be in a constant state of anxiety as they will be unsure of
their jobs.
In his support, the author should have provided evidence that robots can perform
same type of work as factory workers do. He should have studied all kinds of
possibilities in details, for robots to be used in factories.

The following appeared in a memorandum to faculty from the academic vice
president of Waymarsh University.
"So that we can better accomplish Waymarsh University's academic goals, we

should adopt the job-opportunity (job-op) program offered at Plateau Technical
College and strongly encourage all students at Waymarsh to participate in it. The
success of the job-op program at Plateau is evident: Over the past two years,
more than 75% of the freshmen at Plateau have enrolled in the optional job-op
program. Moreover, at Plateau, the grades of job-op students are consistently
higher than those of other students, 90% of the job-op students receive job offers
within a month after their graduation, and most former job-op students report
much success in their careers."
In this memorandum, the academic vice-president of Waymarsh University

recommends that in order to achieve its academic goals Waymarsh should adopt
the same "job-op" program currently offered at Plateau Technical College. To
support this recommendation, the writer points out a high enrollment rate in the
program at Plateau, high academic grades among Plateau students enrolled in the
program compared to other Plateau students, and a high success rate among new
Plateau graduates in finding jobs. However, the vice president's argument has
several critical flaws as well as a false analogy.
First of all, it is wrong on the author's part to compare Waymarsh University and
Plateau. It is natural for Plateau to pay much attention to the job-future of its
students, as Plateau is a technical college. However, the situation of Waymarsh
University is distinct from the former. The author has not informed us about the
academic goals of Waymarsh. There is a high possibility that these goals have
nothing to do with enrollment in job opportunity programs. It might be that
Plateau's goals are likely to depend on its job-placement rate, while Waymarsh's
primary goal is to prepare its students for graduate-level study. Hence, without
studying about Waymarsh's goals and ruling out other possible means of attaining
them, the vice-president cannot conclude that Waymarsh should adopt the job-
op program. He has to evaluate the situation more closely for justifying his
statement.
The second point that the author raises is that of the success of the job-op
program at Plateau. As per the vice-president, more than 75% of the students at
Plateau have enrolled in the optional job-op program in the past two years. Again,
the author has assumed that the students at Waymarsh will also enroll in the job-
op program as they did in Plateau. He has not provided any evidence in support of
this assumption. It might be that Plateau students were far more concerned
about obtaining employment immediately after graduation and Waymarsh
students are not. The success of the program at Plateau has simply nothing to do
with the accomplishment of Waymarsh University's academic goals.
On the contrary, the program might actually deter the accomplishment of such
goals of the university by distracting students from their studies by allowing them
to work while going to university.
The vice president also cites the success of the Plateau job-op program by stating
that the grades of the job-op students are consistently higher than those of the
other students. In addition, the fact that 90% of the job-op students at Plateau
received job offers within one month of graduation is cited in support of the
argument. However, there is a possibility that only the brighter, more competitive
Plateau students enroll in the job-op program in the first place. The author has
not ruled out this possibility. Moreover, job offers are not equivalent to getting
jobs. The author has not given any data about the types of jobs the students were
offered. The author has also failed to rule out other factors that might be
contributing to their success, such as individual struggle, good chance and other
aspects that may have nothing to do with the program.
The author has not offered convincing evidence to support his recommendation.
If he wants to justify his statement, the author should make sure that such job-
opportunity program will be really successful and Waymarsh University does need
it to accomplish its academic goals. The vice-president must also prove that this
job-op program is equally successful in placing university graduates as it is in
placing technical-school graduates.

The following appeared in a memorandum to faculty from the academic vice
president of Waymarsh University.
"So that we can better accomplish Waymarsh University's academic goals, we

should adopt the job-opportunity (job-op) program offered at Plateau Technical
College and strongly encourage all students at Waymarsh to participate in it. The
success of the job-op program at Plateau is evident: Over the past two years,
more than 75% of the freshmen at Plateau have enrolled in the optional job-op
program. Moreover, at Plateau, the grades of job-op students are consistently
higher than those of other students, 90% of the job-op students receive job offers
within a month after their graduation, and most former job-op students report
much success in their careers."
In this memorandum, the academic vice-president of Waymarsh University

recommends that in order to achieve its academic goals Waymarsh should adopt
the same "job-op" program currently offered at Plateau Technical College. To
support this recommendation, the writer points out a high enrollment rate in the
program at Plateau, high academic grades among Plateau students enrolled in the
program compared to other Plateau students, and a high success rate among new
Plateau graduates in finding jobs. However, the vice president's argument has
several critical flaws as well as a false analogy.
First of all, it is wrong on the author's part to compare Waymarsh University and
Plateau. It is natural for Plateau to pay much attention to the job-future of its
students, as Plateau is a technical college. However, the situation of Waymarsh
University is distinct from the former. The author has not informed us about the
academic goals of Waymarsh. There is a high possibility that these goals have
nothing to do with enrollment in job opportunity programs. It might be that
Plateau's goals are likely to depend on its job-placement rate, while Waymarsh's
primary goal is to prepare its students for graduate-level study. Hence, without
studying about Waymarsh's goals and ruling out other possible means of attaining
them, the vice-president cannot conclude that Waymarsh should adopt the job-
op program. He has to evaluate the situation more closely for justifying his
statement.
The second point that the author raises is that of the success of the job-op
program at Plateau. As per the vice-president, more than 75% of the students at
Plateau have enrolled in the optional job-op program in the past two years. Again,
the author has assumed that the students at Waymarsh will also enroll in the job-
op program as they did in Plateau. He has not provided any evidence in support of
this assumption. It might be that Plateau students were far more concerned
about obtaining employment immediately after graduation and Waymarsh
students are not. The success of the program at Plateau has simply nothing to do
with the accomplishment of Waymarsh University's academic goals.
On the contrary, the program might actually deter the accomplishment of such
goals of the university by distracting students from their studies by allowing them
to work while going to university.
The vice president also cites the success of the Plateau job-op program by stating
that the grades of the job-op students are consistently higher than those of the
other students. In addition, the fact that 90% of the job-op students at Plateau
received job offers within one month of graduation is cited in support of the
argument. However, there is a possibility that only the brighter, more competitive
Plateau students enroll in the job-op program in the first place. The author has
not ruled out this possibility. Moreover, job offers are not equivalent to getting
jobs. The author has not given any data about the types of jobs the students were
offered. The author has also failed to rule out other factors that might be
contributing to their success, such as individual struggle, good chance and other
aspects that may have nothing to do with the program.
The author has not offered convincing evidence to support his recommendation.
If he wants to justify his statement, the author should make sure that such job-
opportunity program will be really successful and Waymarsh University does need
it to accomplish its academic goals. The vice-president must also prove that this
job-op program is equally successful in placing university graduates as it is in
placing technical-school graduates.

The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Armchair Video, a
chain of video rental stores.
"Because of declining profits, we must reduce operating expenses at Armchair

Video's ten video rental stores. Raising prices is not a good option, since we are
famous for our special bargains. Instead, we should reduce our operating hours.
Last month our store in downtown Marston reduced its hours by closing at 6:00
P.M. rather than 9:00 P.M. and reduced its overall inventory by no longer stocking
any film released more than two years ago. Since we have received very few
customer complaints about these new policies, we should now adopt them at all
other Armchair Video stores as our best strategies for improving profits."
The owner of the Armchair Video presents a memorandum that comprises

suggestions to increase their declining profits. Taking a clue from one of their
stores in Marston, which reduced its operating hours and the overall inventory by
stocking only recent films, he says that this should be adopted at other stores as
well. Since they are known for their discounts and special offers, they cannot
consider increasing the prices to gain profits. This change has also seen very few
customer complaints because of which it can be adopted at other stores to
reduce operating expenses. However, this could be a useless change, if not
profitable, since the memorandum ignores a number of other possibilities that
can prove the opposite to be true.
As is mentioned in the memorandum, the store in Marston reduced its operating

hours in the last one month. Reducing the operating hours can reduce the
expenses only if it can be introduced successfully. However, there are a number
of things attached to this decision that are ignored in the memorandum. While
reducing the operating hours reduces the expenses, it also cuts down on the
number of customers that come to the store. There are many people for whom
the evening time of 6 to 9 suits best to visit the market. They cannot come to the
store before that. Moreover, the evening time is most profitable in many places.
Similarly, there are customers for whom other times of the day are suitable.
Hence, if the operating hours are cut down, these customers are lost. Therefore,
the owner of the video rental stores should consider this before reducing the
working hours of all the stores.
The owner also considers reducing the overall inventory of films by stocking only
those films released in the past two years and giving away the films older than
those. With this he probably expects to reduce the costs of maintenance of these
films.
However, it is possible that there are a number of customers whose first choice is
older films. The owner has to thus make a careful decision of the choice between
retaining the business by keeping these customers and earn profits or by reducing
the costs related to keeping these films to increase profits.
There could have been very few customer complaints of these policies in
Marston, but it cannot be accepted for all places. The choice of films by customers
depends upon the composition of customers of the place. While at one place
people could prefer the recent films, at other places there could be a liking for the
older films. Hence if there are no complaints from customers of Marston store,
there could be reports of customer complaints at other places. Moreover, it
should not be forgotten that such a policy has been adopted in Marston only for a
period of one month. This period is a very small period to observe the reaction of
customers as well as predict future profits. People take time to notice such
changes. There could be many customers who are not aware of these policies and
thus they did not complain about them. If there have been very few customer
complaints in the past one month there could be an increase in the number of
complaints in the coming times as the customers get to know about the changes.
These points discussed above disagree with the owner's suggestions of following
the policies of Marston to gain profits. Instead of such policies, there should be
other ways of increasing profits. A change in the marketing strategies should be
considered to attract more customers. Since Armchair Video is known for its
special bargains, the owner should introduce more of such offers along with some
subscription or membership for customers and ensure profits. Thus, it can be said
that the suggestions given in the argument should not be followed in all the
stores because of their impracticality. The owner should instead consider other
options that can be more profitable for its video rental stores.

In each city in the region of Treehaven, the majority of the money spent on
government-run public school education comes from taxes that each city
government collects. The region's cities differ, however, in the value they place on
public education. For example, Parson City typically budgets twice as much money
per year as Blue City does for its public schools - even though both cities have
about the same number of residents. It seems clear, therefore, that Parson City
residents care more about public school education than do Blue City residents.
The author of the above given argument holds the view that various cities of the
region of Treehaven differ in the value they place on public education. The author
supports his stand by saying that the amount of money spent by Parson City on its
schools is two times that spent by Blue City despite having about the same
population that pays taxes. Therefore, according to the author, Parson City
residents value public education more than Blue City residents. However, the
author seems to be looking at the issue within a narrow scope. Instead of making
conclusions with the little data that he has, the author should try to find out more
facts to support his argument.
As mentioned, the facts that the author presents to support his argument are not
sufficient to form conclusions and decide about the importance a region places on
education. First of all, what can be said for one city may not be true for other
cities. Each city spends its share of taxes on different services. This cannot be
compared because the needs of each city differ from another. While one of the
cities can spend more on public education, another city might have another major
issue that needs to be attended. For example, if a city is fighting with a problem of
a high death rate or infant mortality rate due to lack of health care services, it is
more important to spend the government money on building hospitals and
dispensaries. This city will have to spend on creating awareness about health care
and bringing up the survival rate amongst its residents. For such a city, it becomes
necessary to spend on another issue that demands more attention. This does not
mean that it attaches less importance to public education. The residents may
place the same importance to education as other cities, but the city is not able to
spend on its schools due to another issue of greater concern.
Further, it can be said that such a comparison is a baseless comparison due to the
fact that the total amount of taxes collected not only depend upon the number of
residents but also on the composition of residents. If Parson City can budget more
funds for public education it is likely that the residents are shelling out more taxes
despite the same number of residents as Blue City. The amount of tax a person
pays depends upon his income. The higher the income, the more will be the tax.
Therefore, it is likely that Parson City residents are richer and the average income
is more than that of Blue City. This could be the reason that it can shell out more
taxes, which eventually means that more amounts can be spent on public schools.
The decision about spending the taxes collected on public services is that of the
administration. Therefore, it has to look into all the places that need funds. It is
possible that the condition of schools differ in different places due to which public
schools in one city need more attention than those in other cities. If Blue City is
spending lesser as compared to Parson City on education, it is possible that the
public schools in Blue City are already of a higher level than those of Parson City.
On the other hand, if Parson City is spending more on its public schools, it is
possible that this is done because these schools are backward and need funds for
basic things to bring them up.
The discussion given above weakens the argument presented by the author. It
only proves that the author forms his opinion in a hurry by just looking at the few
facts that he has. He should rather have a broader outlook and not jump to such
conclusions that can be contradicted.

The following appeared in a letter to the Grandview City Council from a local
business leader.
"During last year's severe drought, when the water supply in the Grandview city
reservoir fell to an extremely low level, the city council imposed much more rigid
water-rationing rules. But just after these rules were imposed, industrial growth
in the area declined. This clearly shows that the new rationing rules have hurt
industry in Grandview. Therefore, to promote the health of the local economy,
the city council should now stop water rationing."
In the letter to the Grandview City Council, the local business leader says that
water-rationing should be stopped because the new rules of water-rationing were
very rigid and the industrial growth has declined due to it. He has come to this
conclusion because the industrial growth declined last year when the city was hit
with a severe draught, which led to these rigid water-rationing rules. However,
the argument presented by the business leader is based on weak assumptions.
It can be argued that the leader does not have a solid ground to support his
argument. He puts up his point on the assumption that the rigid water-rationing
rules have had an adverse effect on industrial growth. These rules were imposed
last year when the city was hit with a severe draught and the city reservoir's level
fell extremely low. As it was observed just after these rules were imposed the
industrial growth in the city declined. However, these two facts can be completely
independent of one another. It is likely that the industrial growth has been
affected due to other reasons and not due to the water-rationing rules. The
business leader simply puts two and two together to come to this conclusion.
However, in the following discussion it can be seen how these two facts can be
completely independent of each other.
As mentioned, the decline in industrial growth could be due to other reasons as

well. There could have been an increase in the price or shortage of raw material
for these industries due to the draught. In case of absence of raw materials, the
production would also be reduced to a great extent. Therefore, the industrial
output is sure to decline. Similarly, there could be other factors like increase in
the prices of goods, decrease in the local demand of these products, lack of
infrastructure for the growth of industries or government's trade policies. It is also
possible that there are cheap and durable foreign substitutes in the market for
the industrial products. People will prefer these substitutes to the industry made
products, which will reduce the overall demand of these goods. Hence, the
industries will not gain any profits that would eventually decline their growth.
The business leader suggests that water-rationing should be stopped to promote

the health of local economy. However, this is not a good solution of the problem.
Water rationing is done to ensure judicial use of the city reservoir water.
Considering that there has been severe draught last year, which resulted in
lowering of the water level, it is possible that the city is hit with such draughts
again. In such a case, if water-rationing is not done it will result in the wastage of
water. This will further lower the precious water level and can worsen the
condition of draught. Water-rationing ensures that it is used properly and not
wasted. It is done keeping in mind the scarcity of water and future needs of the
whole city. Therefore, stopping water-rationing cannot be a good solution.
Instead, the rules can be made a little relaxing in periods when there is no
draught. Moreover, all the factors that affect industrial growth should be looked
into so that the real cause of the decline can be identified. Accordingly, a solution
can be reached which does not require the rules of water-rationing to be rolled
back.
The question that the business leader should consider before giving such a
statement is that if there were no water-rationing rules, would it have made any
difference to industrial growth? Only by identifying the real problem can there be
a lasting and effective solution. Therefore, the discussion given above is enough
to say that the given argument lacks logic and reasoning.

The following appeared in a magazine article about planning for retirement.
"Because of its spectacular natural beauty and consistent climate, Clearview

should be a top choice for anyone seeking a place to retire. As a bonus, housing
costs in Clearview have fallen significantly during the past year, and real estate
taxes remain lower than those in neighboring towns. Nevertheless, Clearview's
mayor promises many new programs to improve schools, streets, and public
services. Retirees in Clearview can also expect excellent health care as they grow
older, since the number of physicians in the area is far greater than the national
average."
The argument presented in the article of the magazine says that Clearview should
be the top choice for retirees seeking a place to settle. This is supported by listing
the benefits like low housing costs and real estate taxes besides the beauty of the
place. The article also mentions the promises made by the mayor that will further
make the place worth living for retirees. However, the argument is not convincing
enough and is failing in many places.
The article mentions that the housing costs of Clearview have fallen significantly.
However, they may still be higher than in many other places. There is no mention
of the comparison of housing costs of other places with that of Clearview's in the
article. The information about the housing costs at other places is important for a
person who has to choose a place to settle. If the costs at Clearview have fallen
significantly, it is possible that they were very high initially. Therefore, a lowering
of these prices does not mean that they are affordable and lower than other
places as well. It only means that they have lowered than what they were before.
Similarly, if the real estate prices are lower than those in the neighboring towns, it
does not conclude that they are the lowest in all towns. There could be many
towns where real estate prices are much lower. These may not be the
neighboring towns but they can be the choice of retirees due to their costs being
lowest amongst all other places.
While the mayor promises many new programs to improve the place nothing is
said about the existing condition of the place. Someone looking for a place to
retire and settle would look into the present infrastructure and not the one that is
promised. This is because there is no guarantee of the fact that the promises of
the mayor will be fulfilled. It is likely that he fails to fulfill his promises and the
place does not see any development. Further, the mayor promises to improve
services like schools, which are of little use to the retirees. While such
improvements will surely improve the place, it does not make it a priority place
for retirees. People need other benefits after retirement like recreational
opportunities, clubs and entertainment, social service opportunities, health
benefits etc. The mayor should instead improve the town in such areas to
encourage people to choose the town as a place to settle after retirement.
The article mentions that people can expect excellent health care facilities since
the number of physicians in Clearview is far more than at any other place.
However, it does not mention if these physicians are of repute or not. The state of
good health depends upon the quality of health care and not just the number of
physicians. There may be many physicians in Clearview but they could be lacking
efficiency, which makes them unpopular amongst residents. The attitude of these
physicians could be cold making them unfriendly and unapproachable. Therefore,
senior citizens would think twice before settling at a place like Clearview where
the health care facilities are not satisfactory.
It is clear that Clearview does not offer anything attractive apart from its beauty
to retirees to make them choose it as their destination. The argument in the
article given above is therefore not sufficient to support Clearview as the top
priority place to settle for retired people.
……………………………………………
The following appeared in a brochure promoting the purchase of local franchises
for a national chain of gyms.
"Now is the time to invest in a Power-Lift Gym franchise so that you can profit
from opening one of our gyms in your town. Consider the current trends: Power-
Lift Gyms are already popular among customers in 500 locations, and national
surveys indicate increasing concern with weight loss and physical fitness.
Furthermore, last year's sales of books and magazines on personal health totaled
more than $50 million, and purchases of home exercise equipment almost
doubled. Investing now in a Power-Lift Gym franchise will guarantee a quick
profit."
The brochure promotes the purchase of Power-Lift Gym franchise in the above
given argument. It supports its stand that this will be profitable by analyzing a few
facts related to fitness and the popularity of the gym. However, it does not form a
solid ground for the same since its reasons do not indicate towards profit alone
but can prove to be the other way round as well.
Power-Lift Gyms, according to the latest trend, is popular amongst customers in

500 locations. However, it may or may not be popular in a new place where it is
going to open. Consider the fact that there are Power-Lift Gyms in many locations
throughout the nation. Taking all the locations together, a mere 500 locations
being popular might be a small number. It might not be enough to say that the
Power-Lift brand is popular by its name or that people should invest in it to gain
profits. Moreover, there is a great possibility that another chain of gyms is more
popular and has many more successfully running gyms around the nation than
Power-Lift Gym. Hence, people would prefer to invest in more promising chains of
gyms than this one.
If the national survey indicates that people are more concerned with weight loss
and physical fitness than ever before, it does not indicate a tread of joining a gym
for fitness. People could instead be conscious about their diet and lifestyle.
Having a proper diet with lesser fattening substances is also an option that people
consider for weight loss. Similarly, including a regular walk, yoga or jog in their
daily routine also indicates a drive towards physical fitness. It is not important
that they join a gym for weight loss or to remain physically fit.
Further, the sale of health magazines and books also does not point towards
increasing number of people joining gyms. The fact that there has been an
increase in the purchases of home exercise equipment also does not confirm the
stand made in the argument. In fact, it can be said that the increase in the sale of
books and home exercising equipment indicates towards the fact that people
want to stay away from gyms. A person who has exercising material at home
would not go to gyms for the same. Moreover, people buying magazines on
health shows that they are becoming aware about fitness and are increasing their
knowledge about the ways to remain healthy. Therefore, they do not need
guidance from the experts of a gym to tell them what they can find in these
books. All this shows that people prefer to stay away from gyms. Hence, it could
be completely incorrect to say that Power-Lift Gyms are attracting more people if
they are buying health magazines and exercising material on their own.
The brochure ignores the fact that Power-Lift Gyms may be popular in certain
locations and unpopular at others. The success of the gym depends a lot upon the
location where it opens. It is only if the people in that particular location prefer to
join gyms that it becomes successful. For this they need to have the kind of
lifestyle for which joining a gym is convenient as well as the attitude of joining it.
If the gym will be successful or not also depends upon other factors like the
marketing strategies used, discounts, offers or memberships offered at the gym,
management and operational system of the gym etc. All these are ignored in the
brochure.
It is clear that all reasons mentioned in the argument are not indicative of the
assumption that investing in Power-Lift Gym franchise is profitable. These reasons
can be interpreted in other ways as mentioned in the discussion above.
Therefore, it can be said that the argument is lacking in logic and does not
support its statement well.

The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Hyper-Go Toy
Company.
"Last year, sales of our Fierce Fighter toy airplane declined sharply, even though
the toy had been a top seller for three years. Our customer surveys show that
parents are now more worried about youthful violence and are concerned about
better education for their children. Therefore, to maintain profits we should
discontinue all our action toys and focus exclusively on a new line of educational
toys. Several other toy companies have already begun marketing educational toys
and report sales increases last year of 200 percent. And since the average family
income is growing, sales of new Hyper-Go toys should also increase."
In the given argument, the president of Hyper-Go Toy Company suggests to

discontinue all the action toys made by the company since the parents are
showing an increased concern and worry about youthful violence. The president
says that they should instead begin marketing educational toys to increase sales
of its toys. However, the reasons he gives are not sufficient enough to come to
this conclusion.
Firstly, there is no way that the argument confirms that the sale of Fierce Fighter
toy airplane has declined due to the concern of parents regarding youthful
violence. The sudden decline in the sale of the particular toy can be because of
other reasons as well. It is possible that the quality of the toy has gone down in
the recent times and it has lost its popularity. There could have been complaints
from parents regarding its durability or falling standards due to which they have
stopped buying it anymore.
Secondly, if the sales of Fierce Fighter airplane have decreased it does not mean
that the sale of all action toys has declined. Fierce Fighter airplane is only one of
the many action toys that are sold by the company. While the sale of this
particular toy has declined nothing is mentioned about the sales of other action
toys. It is possible that the sale of other action toys is comparatively good and the
company is gaining profits from the same. Therefore, on the basis of sale report of
one action toy, all the action toys should not be discontinued.
If the parents are concerned about better education of their children it cannot be
said that educational toys will see a rise in sales. Being concerned about
education also means that they are concerned about their studies. It is possible
that instead of buying educational toys parents are thinking about recreational
activities to occupy their children. They would probably like their children to play
outdoor games and concentrate on studies in school. Thus, being concerned
about their education they would like their children to perform well in academics.
It does not indicate that they would prefer educational toys.
If other companies have gained profits from educational toys it does not mean
that every educational toy is going to be popular with parents and children. The
popularity of a toy depends upon many other factors. It is only if the educational
toy is educating enough and interesting that people will buy it. If the toy does not
satisfy the children or parents because it is boring and dull, it cannot be expected
to earn profits. Therefore, only on the basis of other companies' doing well by
selling educational toys it cannot be decided that educational toys are popular.
Lastly, the increase in the sale of toys cannot be related to the increase in the
average family income. It may be true that the average family income is
increasing but it does not indicate that parents will spend more on toys for their
children. It is likely that many people prefer to save their income for future. It is
also possible that an increase in income is met with inflation. In that case, there
will be no difference in the amount they are willing to spend on toys.
The given argument is therefore devoid of solid ground to support the decision of
changing the line of toys. The reasons mentioned in the argument very well point
at the other possibilities as well and the president should consider all aspects
before reaching any conclusion.

The following appeared in a memorandum from a vice president of the Megamart
department store chain.
"For the third year in a row, the average household income in our country has
risen significantly. That prosperity means that families are likely to be spending
more time and money on leisure activities. Megamart stores should therefore
concentrate on enlarging and promoting its line of products typically used in
leisure activities: athletic and outdoor equipment, televisions, gourmet cooking
equipment, and luggage and travel accessories."
The vice president of the Megamart department store chain refers to the increase
in the average household income and says that people are likely to spend more
on leisure activities. Therefore, they should concentrate on enlarging the products
used in leisure activities in their Megamart stores. This argument however does
not support the decision well. The reasons given in the argument show only one
of the possibilities out of many possible outcomes, which might prove this
decision to be a disaster.
There are other possibilities, which the president ignores in his argument. Firstly,
if the average income of households has increased for the third year in a row, it
does not directly indicate that people will spend more money on leisure. How a
person chooses to spend his income is a highly personal matter. We cannot
generalize the way people spend their income. While some people might want to
spend their increased income on leisure activities, some would prefer to spend it
on luxuries. It is likely that they want to live a more comfortable life than before
and they choose to buy the products that make their lives easier. Similarly, some
people would like to spend the money on educating their children and some
might want to save the money for future use. Therefore, one cannot say for
certain that people will like to spend their income on leisure activities.
The argument given by the president also ignores the possibility of rise in prices
with a rise in the average income. If there has been a constant rise in the incomes
of households in the past three years, it is bound to increase the prices of
commodities as well. This could take the shape of inflation and people would
have to spend more on the goods and products that they have been buying at a
cheaper rate earlier. As a result, there would not be much difference created with
the rise in income. People would not be left with any extra amount in their hands
to spend on leisure activities. Therefore, if the Megamart stores introduce more
products for leisure activities, they might be disappointed to find only few
customers.
It can further be argued that leisure activities require a lot of leisure time for
people to indulge in them. Taking a trip, cultivating hobbies like outdoor activities
or even watching television needs free time from work. However, increased
income indicates that people are working more than before. If they are engaged
in more work, they have considerably lesser time for leisure activities. If people
have lesser time to spare for such activities, it is obvious that they will not spend
their increased income on the products used in leisure activities. Once again, the
argument given by the president is proven wrong and insufficient to support its
decision.
The sale of leisure activities depends upon a number of factors. Not only does it
require the time and money of people, there should also be opportunities of
engaging in leisure activities. Taking a trip is useful only if there are holiday spots
nearby. Similarly, gourmet-cooking equipment will sell only if there are cookery
classes in the town. Moreover, these products will sell only if people have an
interest in these leisure activities. These products have no meaning for people
who prefer to stay at home and spend their spare time with their family
members. All these points indicate towards only one thing, that the reasoning
given by the president is not enough to support his stand. The discussion
presented above proves that the increase in income may or may not help in the
sale of more leisure products.
…………………………………..

The following appeared in an article in a magazine for writers.
"A recent study showed that in describing a typical day's conversation, people
make an average of 23 references to watching television and only 1 reference to
reading fiction. This result suggests that, compared with the television industry,
the publishing and bookselling industries are likely to decline in profitability.
Therefore, people who wish to have careers as writers should acquire training and
experience in writing for television rather than for print media."
The author of the article that appeared in the magazine for writers believes that
those who want to have a career as a writer should write for television instead of
other print media since television is more popular. This belief of his is based on
the survey, which showed that people made more references to watching
television in a conversation than to reading fiction. However, the author of the
article does not exhibit logic and reasoning in the argument that he presents.
First of all, on the basis of the findings of the survey, it would be incorrect to say
that compared to the television industry, other print media would decline in
profitability. If there was only 1 reference made to reading fiction in a
conversation as compared to 23 references to watching television, it does not
mean that people watch television more often than they read books. There is no
way to confirm from the argument that the interest of people in books is dying. It
is possible that people still read a number of books but do not refer to them
during the day. In a conversation there has to be something in common between
the two people who are interacting. It is only if the two have read the same book
that they can refer to it in their conversation, which is very unlikely. However, it is
possible that the conversation related to television refers to a show that has been
watched by many people.
The findings of the survey cannot be taken as a general trend across all the
people. It is likely that the survey was conducted mostly on people who watched
television more than they read fiction. It could have missed out on people reading
fiction and making more references to what they have read in their conversation.
It can also be said that when the survey was conducted there was some news of
great importance, or a show that has gained a lot of attention on the television.
This indicates that people will talk about the show more often in their
conversation. On the other hand, during that time if there has been no
noteworthy work in fiction, it is obvious that there will be fewer references to it in
conversation. Therefore, it can be said that the survey can be misleading, forcing
us to draw incorrect conclusions.
It can further be argued that if there are more references to the television than to
fiction in a typical day's conversation, it does not indicate towards a growing
television industry. Nor does it show that the publishing and book selling industry
is declining. There are many other factors that are responsible for the growth or
decline of an industry. Television industry can also decline if it does not broadcast
any interesting serials. On the other hand, if the books being published are
extremely popular, they will be sold all around. The growth of one medium does
not show the decline of another. Both the industries are independent of one
another and can grow at the same time.
If we believe the argument to be true for some time and say that the publishing
and bookselling industry is likely to decline profitability it does not mean that
writers have no career in the print media. There are many other options that the
writers in the print media have. The newspaper industry is a huge print media and
requires potential writers. Similarly, writers can write for magazines apart from
just writing books on fiction.
Conclusively, it can be said that the inference deduced from the survey is baseless
and incorrect. The author of the argument should instead have a broader bent of
mind and view the prospects for writers in a new light.
………………………………………………………

The following appeared in the editorial section of a student newspaper.
"In a recent survey, most students who were studying beginning Russian gave
higher course-evaluation ratings to classes taught by non-native Russian speakers
than to classes taught by native Russian speakers. The reason that the non-native
speakers were better teachers of Russian is easy to see: the non-native speakers
learned Russian later in life themselves, and so they have a better understanding
of how the language can be taught effectively. Therefore, in order to improve
instruction for all languages and also save money, our university should hire non-
native speakers as language instructors instead of trying to find and recruit native
speakers."
The argument presented in the editorial section of a student newspaper says that
non-native speakers of a language are better instructors than native speakers and
therefore the university should hire non-native speakers as instructors. This
conclusion is reached on the basis of a survey that shows more response from the
students learning Russian being taught by non-native Russian speakers. The
reasons, nonetheless, seem to be insufficient to come to the conclusion as
mentioned in the editorial section.
First of all, if the students gave higher course evaluation ratings to classes taught
by non-native Russian speakers than to classes taught by native Russian speakers,
it does not mean that the non-native Russian speakers have a better
understanding of the language and so can teach it effectively. The response of
students also depends upon the method and style of teaching adopted. It is
possible that the non-native Russian speaker is a better teacher. This means that
both the teachers could be having the same level of knowledge and
understanding of the language. However, there could be a difference in the way
they teach the language to their students. The non-native Russian speaker could
be a dedicated teacher who teaches the students with great interest and by giving
individual attention to their doubts. It is also possible that the non-native Russian
speaker is more experienced than his native counterpart is. Therefore, he knows
how to teach effectively due to his experience and it has nothing to do with his
being a non-native speaker. Therefore, it is obvious that the class of the non-
native Russian speaker will be more responsive than that of the other teacher.
Secondly, the argument mentions that the reason that non-native speakers were
better teachers of Russian is that they had learnt the language on their own later
in life. Therefore, they have a better understanding of how to teach effectively.
However, there is no ground behind this statement. Learning a language sooner
or later in life does not improve your understanding of how to teach the language.
One needs to be trained to teach the students well. It is the quality of training,
along with the attitude of the teacher that makes all the different in teaching. If a
person has learnt a language on his own, it does not give him the knowledge of
how he can teach it to others. It is possible that the non-native speaker has
acquired special training to help him become a better teacher and that is why his
class is more responsive than that of the other teacher.
Going by the findings of the survey, students have given a better response to the
non-native Russian speaking teacher than to native speakers of the language.
However, this cannot help in forming a judgment about all the language teachers.
Each language is different and so is their difficulty level. Each language needs to
be taught in a particular manner that may be different form the other. Hence, the
findings of the survey conducted on a class being taught Russian cannot be used
to form a conclusion for all languages in general. To ensure improvement in
instruction in all the languages being taught in the university, trained and
dedicated teachers should be hired instead on non-native speakers.
Lastly, hiring a non-native speaker as an instructor does not indicate that the
university will save money. It is possible that a non-native instructor is highly
experienced and qualified. In that case, he will demand a handsome salary in
return of his services. As compared to this, a native instructor might be cheaper
for the university to hire.
As is clear by now, the argument presented in the editorial section is baseless and
irrelevant. It draws conclusion from a survey, which could indicate towards a wide
range of other possibilities as well.
……………………………………

The following article appeared in a recent issue of a college newspaper.
"Among all students who graduated from Hooper University over the past five
years, more physical science majors than social science majors found permanent
jobs within a year of graduation. In a survey of recent Hooper University
graduates, most physical science majors said they believed that the prestige of
Hooper University's physical science programs helped them significantly in finding
a job. In contrast, social science majors who found permanent employment
attributed their success to their own personal initiative. Therefore, to ensure that
social science majors find permanent jobs, Hooper University should offer
additional social science courses and hire several new faculty members who
already have national reputations in the social sciences."
In the above article which was published in the recent issue of a college
newspaper the first argument held by the arguer is that more physical science
students than social science students from Hooper University found permanent
jobs within a year of graduation. The second argument is in context to the survey
which was conducted in Hooper University in which physical science majors
believed that the prestige of the university helped them to find jobs and on the
contrary social science majors found permanent jobs through their own initiative.
There is a recommendation made by the arguer that in order to ensure
permanent jobs for social science students Hooper University should run more
social science courses and even hire new staff of national reputation in the same
field.
While making the first argument the arguer has not stated the exact percentage
of physical science majors who got permanent jobs and also the percentage of
social science majors who did not get permanent jobs. The arguer has not stated
the reason for the low percentage. It is possible that this was the lowest period
ever of social science majors in getting permanent jobs and otherwise they were
getting placed better. Also the arguer has not mentioned whether there has been
a decline in the sectors offering jobs to social science majors or their demand in
the outside world has declined considerably.
In the second argument the number of students who underwent the Hooper
University survey has not been given by the arguer and it is possible that the
survey was conducted probably in the year when social science students were not
nicely placed in permanent jobs. The arguer also fails to mention the earlier
performance of the social science students in getting permanent jobs. The arguer
also states that the prestige of Hooper University helped the physical science
students to get permanent jobs which means that instead of marks they relied
more on the reputation of the institute they were studying in but on the contrary
social science students got permanent jobs based on their caliber.
The recommendation made by the arguer to introduce new staff and new courses
are absolutely baseless, as neither from the study nor from the survey it is evident
that social science majors need new courses or new staff for better performance.
The arguer has not been successful in determining that social science majors are
academically weaker than physical science majors. Also the arguer has mentioned
the need to hire new faculty members of national repute, but neither from the
study nor survey has it been made been clear that because of this reason social
science students were getting less permanent jobs. We are not sure from the
above article whether it is the dearth of jobs in the market, the weak academic
performance of social science majors or bad faculty of the university which is
responsible for the less permanent job placements of social science majors.
The arguer has not been successful in proving the relevance of his
recommendation. The arguer should provide us with more convincing facts.
…………………………………………….

The following appeared as an editorial in one of Coleville's city newspapers.
"Even though a high percentage of Coleville City's businesses failed last year, we
who live in Coleville City should keep in mind the fact that the Coleville region has
attracted a great many new businesses over the last three years. It is well known
that new businesses are, on average, much more likely to fail than are long-
established ones, so the business failures should not be considered a sign of poor
economic health. Indeed, many analysts regard the presence of a significant
number of new companies among a region's businesses as a sign of economic
health. Thus Coleville City appears to be in good, not poor, economic shape."
The above article was published in an editorial of Coleville's city newspaper and
the arguer, in spite of the poor performance of the region's businesses in the past
year, wants to support that the city is in a good economic shape. The first
argument which the arguer gives to support his stand is that Coleville has been of
great interest to the new businesses over the past three years and also the arguer
blames new businesses for the failure in the previous year. The second stand
which the arguer gives in support of the city's good economic shape is that many
analysts think that the new companies among the city's businesses are a sign of
economic health.
The first argument given by the arguer is absolutely baseless as the exact number
of businesses that failed last year is not given which will determine the economic
health of the city. It would be absolutely insignificant to mention the attraction
for the new businesses without giving the exact reason of the failure. There is a
possibility that there was no scope for the new businesses as the older ones were
fulfilling the city's needs. It is also possible that the working conditions in regard
to labor, raw material and climate were not in favor of the businesses. The arguer
fails to mention the exact reason of the failure. The arguer says that the city has
attracted business in past three years and there is no mention of the performance
of businesses earlier than that period. It is quite possible that during a certain
period the businesses of the city flourished and after that again they saw a low
phase. The arguer fails to mention whether the new or the existing businesses
failed as it is not clear in the argument. On one side the arguer is talking about the
new businesses pouring in and on the other hand he blames the new businesses
as a sign of economic health. The arguer is very confused in his recommendations.
The second recommendation which the arguer makes in support of his argument
is also dubious. The arguer has not mentioned the number or percentage of
analysts who gave this statement. The arguer fails to present before us the official
reports which show that the city is not in a bad economic state. The arguer has
not mentioned the annual performance of the new or old companies. The study
again is very confusing as on one hand the new businesses are blamed for the
poor performance of the businesses and at the same time they represent the
good economic state of the city which is absolutely baseless.
The arguer has not provided us with any substantial report or figure which would
justify the recommendation made by him that the economic state of Coleville city
is in good shape. The argument in favor should be more precise and accurate in
order to make the arguer's stand stronger.
…………………………………………

The following appeared in a corporate planning memo at ABC Cereal Company,
the makers of Better Bran cereal.
"Sales of Better Bran have declined in recent years, for reasons that management
has now identified. First, Better Bran is a cereal with high sugar content, and
recent research studies have found that most consumers say they are concerned
about the amount of sugar added to their breakfast cereal. Second, the price of
Better Bran has increased by 5 percent in each of the last three years. Therefore,
to increase our company's profits we need to reduce the amount of sugar in
Better Bran and lower Better Bran's price."
In the above article the arguer has recommended that in order to increase the
profits of the ABC Cereal company the sugar content in Better Bran cereal should
be reduced and also the price of the cereal should be lowered. The arguer has
based his recommendations based on two arguments. The first argument that the
arguer has mentioned is that the sugar content in the Better Bran Cereal is very
high and according to the recent survey the consumers are very much concerned
about the amount of sugar content in their cereal. The second argument which
the arguer has mentioned to support his stand is that the prices of the cereal
should be reduced as they have gone high by 5 percent in each of the last three
years. Both the arguments given by the arguer are not sufficient to lower the
prices of Better Bran cereal.
The arguer in his first recommendation states that the content of sugar is high in
the cereal and consumers are concerned about the amount of sugar consumed by
them. The arguer has not mentioned how many consumers were concerned
about the content of sugar in their diet. It is very important to determine the
section of society that undertook the survey because young children and adults
not on diet would probably not object to the sugar content as compared to
dieting individuals. There is a possibility that the survey was taken by mostly diet
conscious consumers. The arguer fails to mention whether consumers would be
ready to accept Better Bran if its sugar content would be lowered. The sugar
makes the cereal tasty and if the sugar content is lowered then it is quite possible
that then people might not find it tasty. This would then lower the demand of the
cereal.
The arguer in his second argument recommends that the prices of Better Bran
cereal should be cut down. The arguer has not mentioned the reason for the rise
in prices and the reasons could be numerous. There could be inflation, the price
of the raw material must have increased, and the company must be providing
some added minerals or simply a better quality product. The arguer fails to bring
about the exact reasons to lower down the cost. The arguer has also not
mentioned the popularity of the cereal with the public. If the cereal is admired
then the public could be ready to pay a higher price for the product. Also the
arguer has not mentioned the various competitive brands and their prices and if
their prices are higher the company can stake to higher their prices and compete
in the market.
In both the above arguments, the arguer has failed to prove his stand of lowering
the prices of Better Bran cereal and if the company does so it might have to lower
the standard of the cereal which ultimately would result in reducing clientele.
Also if the company lowers the prices the company may suffer losses.
……………………………….

The following appeared as part of a letter to the editor of a local newspaper.
"During her three years in office, Governor Riedeburg has shown herself to be a
worthy leader. Since she took office, crime has decreased, the number of jobs
created per year has doubled, and the number of people choosing to live in our
state has increased. These trends are likely to continue if she is reelected. In
addition, Ms. Riedeburg has promised to take steps to keep big companies here,
thereby providing jobs for any new residents. Anyone who looks at Ms.
Riedeburg's record can tell that she is the best-qualified candidate for governor."
The above letter appeared in the local newspaper and the arguer through it wants
to prove that Ms Riedeburg is the most suitable candidate for the post of
governor. To make his stand more convincing the arguer has given various
arguments. The first argument which proves the worth of Ms Riedeburg as a
governor is that since the time she has joined the office there has been quite a
decrease in the crime rate. There has been considerable increase in the jobs and
the number of people moving in the state. The second argument which the arguer
gives is that if Ms Riedeburg is reelected as the governor then the same trend
would continue and she has also promised to provide more jobs for the new
residents by keeping big companies in the city. Both the arguments given by the
arguer fail to prove the worth of Ms. Riedeburg.
The first argument presented for proving the worth of Ms. Riedeburg is absolutely
insignificant. There is no direct relation between decreasing crime rate and her
being the governor. The decrease in crime rate could be due to better awareness
in the citizens and thus adoption of more security measures by them. Also during
the time of the previous governor various measures could have been taken to
control the crime and most criminals could have been imprisoned. The increase in
the number of jobs could have been due to the expansion of the industries or
setting up of new industries. The arguer has not mentioned that she proposed
any new setup or expansion of any industry so how could she have generated
more jobs? It is also not mentioned by the arguer that she appointed new security
staff or took special measures to hinder crime. The number of people choosing to
live in the city could have increased due to fall in real estate prices or more job
options and not because Ms. Riedeburg was the governor.
The second argument which the arguer gives in support of his stand that in case
Ms. Riedeburg is reelected then the same trend would continue is absolutely
vague. The possibility of generating more job options is very limited as she can
not create jobs and also the crime has already diminished. The arguer says that
she would keep the big companies which would create jobs for new residents is
also vague as the established companies would not require so much manpower
that it would accommodate all the new residents shifting in the city.
In all the arguments the arguer is unable to make his stand strong to reelect Ms.
Reideburg as the governor of the city. Also she might have worked to the best of
her ability and the new governor who comes would come with new ideas and
measures for the betterment of the city. The arguer could not give relevant
reasons for the reelection of the governor and also to highlight her performance
as a good governor.
…………………………………………..

The following appeared as part of a memo from the manager of an automobile
manufacturing company.
"Because the demand for our automobiles is expected to increase dramatically,

we need to open a new manufacturing plant as soon as possible in order to
continue to thrive. Our marketing projections indicate that 80 million people will
want to buy our automobiles, yet our existing plant can only produce 40 million
automobiles. The new plant can be opened on a part-time basis, with workers
from our existing site rotating responsibilities, until an operational staff can be
trained. A major airplane manufacturer was extremely successful using this part-
time rotating strategy when it opened its new plant five years ago."
The above article appeared as a part of a memo from the manager of an

automobile manufacturing company. According to the arguer, the company
should open a new plant in order to satisfy the company's future demand of
automobiles which is expected to increase according to the market projection.
The argument which the arguer gives in support of his recommendation is that
the existing plant can only produce half the expected increase of automobiles.
The arguer further recommends that the workers from the existing site can be
appointed while rotating their responsibility until trained staff is appointed on the
new plant. The arguer also brings to notice the fact that part-time rotating
strategy was extremely successful in a major airplane manufacturer's new plant
five years ago. All the recommendations made by the arguer are based on false
assumptions and should not be adopted.
While making his first assumption the arguer fails to bring any authenticated
survey or report which would indicate such a rise in the demand of automobiles.
The arguer has only mentioned the demand of automobiles which are likely to
increase but the stipulated period is not given, as the arguer uses a vague
assumption. In absence of the time span in which the demand for the increased
automobiles is to be met, it would be a very hasty decision to start a new plant. If
the existing plant can fulfill half of the expected rise in demand then in absence of
the time constraint it can also fulfill the whole of it. This assumption is absolutely
baseless and without any supportive statements.
The second assumption which the arguer makes lacks any substantive support.
The arguer recommends that on the new part time plant the existing staff should
be appointed by rotating their responsibilities. The arguer does not mention here
the loss which the existing plant would suffer and also an additional burden on
the staff which would certainly affect their productivity. Eventually, both the
plants would suffer and so would the worker class. This would also bring down
the quality of the products. The arguer overestimates the capability of the
workers and underestimates the capability of the machines as he talks about new
machines but not of appointing new staff, this assumption seems to be very
weird. The arguer also suggests that the same trick worked for the airplane
manufacturer five years ago but the arguer fails to establish the relationship
between both the manufacturing units. The nature of both the manufacturing
units is poles apart and how can the arguer be so sure that if one trick worked for
one would certainly work for another? The manufacturing units are entirely
different and also the period of five years has lapsed during which lots of
technological changes would have taken place in regard to the rotating work force
strategy.
The manager has several assumptions for setting up a new plant but all his
assumptions fail to justify his stand. Therefore, the recommendations should not
be accepted.
…………………………..

The following appeared as an editorial in a local newspaper.
"In order to attract visitors to Central Plaza downtown and to return the plaza to
its former glory, the city should prohibit skateboarding there and instead allow
skateboarders to use an area in Monroe Park. At Central Plaza, skateboard users
are about the only people one sees now, and litter and defaced property have
made the plaza unattractive. In a recent survey of downtown merchants, the
majority supported a prohibition on skateboarding in the plaza. Clearly, banning
skateboarding in Central Plaza will make the area a place where people can
congregate for fun or for relaxation."
The above article appeared as an editorial in a local newspaper and the arguer
recommends that skateboarding should be banned in Central Plaza and the
skateboarders should be moved to Monroe Park. There are various reasons for
the banning of skateboarding that the arguer gives. The first reason being that
skateboard users are the only people in the plaza along with litter and defaced
property which has made the plaza unattractive. The second reason that the
arguer gives is the survey which indicates banning of skateboarding in the plaza.
Additionally he says that after banning the plaza would become a place of
relaxation and fun for people.
While giving the first argument the arguer fails to justify whether the reason for
Central Plaza's lost charm is only skateboarding. There could have been better
plazas in the nearby place which the arguer has not mentioned. The arguer
suggests that the area for skateboarders should be shifted from Central Plaza to
Monroe Park but the arguer has not mentioned any sanction from that place and
also whether the skaters in Central Plaza were ever given a sanction or not and if
yes then why was it given to them in the first place. The arguer mentions that
skaters are the only people seen on the plaza. If the skateboarders are banned
from the plaza the probability is that then there would be hardly anybody seen.
The arguer fails to mention any specific reason as to why shifting needs to done.
The arguer mentions no misbehavior on part of any skater. The reason for the loss
of attraction could be the litter and the defaced property which the arguer
mentions and if the steps are taken to sort these two problems then there are
chances that skaters need not be banned from Central Plaza and moved to
Monroe Park.
The second reason which the arguer gives in support of his argument is the survey
which supported banning of skateboarding in Central Plaza. The arguer fails to
mention the percentage of public that was part of the survey and also the age
group of people. In the absence of such facts these assumptions are absolutely
baseless as the survey could have been taken by public who dread skateboarding
or are not interested in it. The arguer fails to mention whether after banning
skateboarding people would prefer that plaza and litter and defaced property do
not affect their preference for Central Plaza. The arguer has not given
authenticated reasons in support to his argument pertaining to litter and defaced
property. The arguer has not mentioned whether people approved of or
disapproved of these two factors as they also matter in attracting public to the
plaza. The arguer also mentions that after banning skateboarding the plaza would
become the place for fun and relaxation; the arguer has not presented sufficient
reasons or any support to this argument.
The arguer fails to prove his stand against the argument given in context to
banning of skateboarding from Central Plaza. Therefore, the banning would not
be correct without any authenticated reasons.
…………………………….

The following appeared in a newsletter from a political organization.
"In order to promote economic growth in the city, city residents should vote 'yes'
on the state government's proposal to build a new expressway linking the
outlying suburbs directly to the city center. A direct link to the city center will
enable downtown businesses to receive deliveries more frequently, so that
downtown retailers will no longer run out of stock and city manufacturers will not
be affected by shortages of materials. Booming businesses will attract qualified
workers from all over the state, workers who will be able to take advantage of the
new expressway to commute to work in our city. In addition to these advantages,
hundreds of workers will be employed to build the expressway, further
stimulating the local economy!"
The above newsletter appeared from a political organization and the arguer
supports the government's proposal of building a new expressway which would
connect outlying suburbs directly to the city. The arguer presents various
arguments in favor of his stand. The first argument which the arguer presents is
that the new expressway would enable businesses with prompt deliveries of stock
so that the retailers will have enough stock and the city manufacturers do not
have shortage of materials. The second argument that the arguer gives is that the
businesses which would flourish as an outcome of the new expressway would
attract workers from all over the state and they would make use of the
expressway in the best possible manner. Also, in the construction work of new
expressway hundreds of workers would be employed which would stimulate the
local economy. The arguer fails to present relevant reasoning to support his
arguments.
In the first argument, the arguer mentions that the new expressway would help in
prompt deliveries for the businesses and the manufacturing units. However, the
arguer has not mentioned that there was not any link between the city center and
the suburbs. Also the arguer has not mentioned whether because of absence of
the direct link between the city and the suburbs that manufacturing businesses
are not receiving prompt deliveries which is affecting the retailing business. There
could be a possibility that the manufacturing units are not able to meet the
requirement of the retailing business which might be on the rise. There is a
possibility that the city and suburbs are linked appropriately and a new
expressway construction would only lead to straining manpower, resources and
infrastructure which could be used somewhere else in the city for better
development.
In the second argument the arguer mentions about attracting work force from all
over the state which eventually would mean straining the other areas which need
as much work force as the city centre. This could also lead to other businesses
suffering in the work force front and it would affect the economy also. The arguer
talks about employing a large number of people in the construction of the new
expressway and thus generating income for the worker class and doing good to
the economy. However, the arguer fails to estimate the huge amount of cost.
However, the arguer has not judged the number of buildings that need to be
demolished for construction of the expressway and it would be having an adverse
effect on the economy. The arguer fails to bring into notice various negative
aspects of constructing the new expressway. It would be quite draining on the
economy rather that proving to be beneficial. It would also be adversely affecting
other businesses.
The arguer fails to justify his stand in favor of building the new expressway as he
lacks relevant explanations for his proposed arguments. The reasons in support
should be convincing enough as it requires huge investment and also demolishing
a number of existing buildings.
…………………………..

The following appeared as part of a memo from the manager of a hazardous-
waste disposal company.
"Our new plan will help us better protect our staff against exposure to toxic
chemicals: We are fitting each new safety suit with an alarm that will sound in the
main control booth when the suit is punctured. The control booth will notify the
managers on duty, who will then take the necessary steps to ensure employees'
safety. In addition to the obvious safety-related benefits, the fast reaction time
will ensure minimal work stoppage and thus result in increased worker
productivity and company profitability."
"Our new plan will help us better protect our staff against exposure to toxic
chemicals: We are fitting each new safety suit with an alarm that will sound in the
main control booth when the suit is punctured. The control booth will notify the
managers on duty, who will then take the necessary steps to ensure employees'
safety. In addition to the obvious safety-related benefits, the fast reaction time
will ensure minimal work stoppage and thus result in increased worker
productivity and company profitability."
The above article appeared as a part of a memo from the manager of a

hazardous-waste disposal company. The arguer recommends the implication of
the new safety plan, which would protect the staff from exposure against toxic
chemicals. There are various arguments that the arguer presents in support of the
new safety plan. The first argument is that the new safety suit has an alarm which
will sound in the control booth when punctured and the control booth would
intimate the manager on duty and thus the safety of the employs would be
ensured. The second argument that the arguer gives is that apart from the safety
related benefits the new safety suit would also ensure that the work is stopped
for the minimum time. The argument does not present full facts about the new
safety plan thus the arguer fails to convince us.
The first argument presented by the arguer saying that the new safety plan would
ensure safety to workers from harmful chemicals is absolutely incorrect. The
whole safety suit depends upon on the puncturing and if due to some reason it
does not get punctured then the workers would keep inhaling harmful chemicals.
There is no back up measure adopted in case the suit does not get punctured.
Also there should be some provision for the intimation in regard to puncture
failure which would ensure twofold safety of the workers. The arguer also
mentions that if the suit is punctured the alarm would sound in the control room
and then the preventive security measures would be taken. The arguer fails to
bring an important point here that if the manager is not in the control room then
who in his absence would take the security precautions. There should also have
been a direct provision of intimation to the workers who are under danger.
The second argument which the arguer presents is that along with safety the new
suit would ensure enhanced productivity and increased profits of the company.
The arguer fails to explain how much reaction time would be needed. There is a
possibility that such measures would only result in panic and it is not known that
at what level the alarm would sound. If the alarm sounds at the level which is safe
for the workers then there would be unnecessary stoppage of work. Also the
entire work would take place depending upon the safety suit and if the suit is not
working then the workers would work in fear as they'll become used to it and
hence it would result in inferior quality work. The arguer has not mentioned
whether work force was working less efficiently before and had demanded that
they would work more efficiently after a new safety suit. If there was no demand
then they will keep working at the same pace and hence productivity would
remain same and it would not bring much difference in the company's profits. The
arguer fails to mention the cost factor involved in fitting the safety suit and also
its maintenance charges.
The arguer fails to convince us as there are many flaws in the proposed
recommendation. Hence, the new safety suit is not recommended as the arguer
needs to present more convincing arguments in his support.
…………………

The following appeared in a recommendation from the planning department of
the city of Transopolis.
"Ten years ago, as part of a comprehensive urban renewal program, the city of
Transopolis adapted for industrial use a large area of severely substandard
housing near the freeway. Subsequently, several factories were constructed
there, crime rates in the area declined, and property tax revenues for the entire
city increased. To further revitalize the city, we should now take similar action in a
declining residential area on the opposite side of the city. Since some houses and
apartments in existing nearby neighborhoods are currently unoccupied, alternate
housing for those displaced by this action will be readily available."
The above article appeared as a recommendation from the planning department

of the city of Transopolis. The arguer wants to recommend a comprehensive
urban renewal program on the opposite side of the city of Transopolis so that a
large area of substandard housing be used for industrial purpose. There are
various arguments presented by the arguer in support of his stand. The
arguments presented by the arguer are that when a comprehensive urban
renewal program was adapted in one part of the city, many factories were
constructed there, the rate of crime also decreased and there was an increase in
the property tax revenue. Additionally the arguer thinks that if a similar program
was a success in a part of the city of Transopolis then it would be a success in the
other part too.
The arguments presented by the arguer in support of his stand are vague and
baseless. The arguer talks of a comprehensive urban renewal program that was
adopted ten years ago and after the lapse of a decade how can the same plan
work for the other area of the city? As there must have been remarkable changes
in the ways of getting development in a city implementing the same program
could not yield the same fruitful results as it did ten years ago.
The arguer talks about the declined crime rate and the increased property tax
revenue for the entire city. This assumption about how declined crime is related
to several factories being constructed is very vague. The fall in crime could have
been due to vigilant staff or more imprisonment of the criminals. Additionally the
residents must have become more cautious with time or more security personnel
must have been placed in the area.
The arguer has mentioned the increase in the property tax for the entire city. The
arguer has not mentioned the separate taxes of the different regions of the city.
How can the arguer assume that the increase in property tax was due to the
contribution of taxes from this area of the city? The arguer has also not
mentioned anywhere that increase in property taxes was due to the newly set up
factories.
The arguer talks about construction of industries to bring development in the

other part of the city but the arguer is forgetting the further consequences of
constructing so many industries in the same city. The arguer thinks industrial
development is the only way for development but other measures can also be
adopted by government for development. If the land on that side of the city is
fertile then that could be taken under cultivation or schools or colleges can be
constructed. The set up of industries bring in so much of pollution which could be
fatal for the people living in the city.
The arguer fails to make his recommendation acceptable. The arguer should
present more relevant arguments in support of his stand and must present some
new measures as compared to a plan which was adopted ten years ago.
…………………………..

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper.
"The members of the town school board should not be reelected because they
are not concerned about promoting high-quality education in the arts in our local
schools. For example, student participation in the high school drama club has
been declining steadily, and this year the school board refused to renew the
contract of the drama director, even though he had received many awards for his
original plays. Meanwhile, over $300,000 of the high school budget goes to
athletic programs, and the head football coach is now the highest-paid member
of the teaching staff."
The above article appeared as a letter to the editor of a local newspaper. The
arguer recommends that the members should not be reelected of the town
school board as they are not interested in promoting high-quality education in the
arts in their local schools. The arguer makes further argument in support of his
stand that in spite of the drama director receiving numerous awards for his
original plays, his contract for this year was refused by the school board for
renewal. Additionally the number of students participating in the high school
drama club has been declining. The arguer further sates that on the other hand
over $300,000 of the high school budget goes to the athletic programs and the
highest paid member of the teaching staff is the head football coach. The
arguments made by the arguer are vague and are not convincing.
The first argument presented by the arguer in support of his recommendation is

that student participation in high school drama is declining. This assumption is
absolutely baseless as the lack of participation from the students could be due to
other factors like the majority of the students must be studious or more
interested in playing sports. The arguer does not mention whether arts only
include drama. As there are also various forms of art there could be a possibility
that the students are more inclined towards music, dance or painting. The arguer
has not mentioned these areas of art education.
The arguer further states that the contract of the drama director was refused to
be renewed by the board in spite of the drama director getting several awards for
his original plays. This argument made by arguer is again baseless as the arguer
has no where mentioned that drama director has done remarkably well in the
field of dramatics in the school. Although he has earned many awards but he has
not got a single award for the school. It is highly possible that students do not like
the drama director and because of this reason the interest on the student's is
declining.
The arguer's next stand is the amount of budget allotted for the athletic programs
and that the head football coach is now the highest-paid member of the teaching
staff. This argument of the arguer is extremely baseless as the relation between
athletic budget and arts budget is not mentioned. There are separate budgets for
different departments and it is nowhere mentioned by the arguer that because of
the athletic budget, arts budget is suffering. And also the arguer has not
mentioned anywhere that because of more allocation of funds to the athletic
programs students are not participating in the high school drama. The arguer has
not mentioned whether the school board is partial towards athletic budget. The
arguer mentions that the head of football coach is the highest paid member and
the arguer nowhere mentions whether there is any problem with the coach
getting so highly paid or anybody is objecting to it.
The arguments made by the arguer in support of his stand are all without
substantive explanation. Hence, this recommendation is absolutely baseless.
……………………………..

The following appeared in a memo from the sales manager of Eco-Power, a
company that manufactures tools and home appliances.
"Many popular radio and television commercials use memorable tunes and song
lyrics to call attention to the products being advertised. Indeed, a recent study of
high school students showed that 85 percent could easily recognize the tunes
used to advertise leading soft drinks and fast-food restaurants. Despite our
company's extensive advertising in magazines during the past year, sales of our
home appliances declined. Therefore, to boost company profits, we should now
switch to advertisements featuring a distinctive song."
The sales manager of Eco-Power has made an analysis of the advertising methods
adopted by some soft-drink companies, fast-food restaurants and his own
company. A casual reading of the memo seems convincing, but a careful reading
brings out some loopholes in the argument. The argument is flawed in many
places and one cannot accept the statement of the sales manager.
The study mentioned was carried out on school students. School students seldom
pay any heed to advertisements of tools and home appliances. They are more
likely to remember soft-drinks and fast-food restaurants, irrespective of the
advertisements. The result of the study would only indicate that the students
have knowledge of the product; whether they endorse the product or not cannot
be said on the basis of their mere recognition of the tune of the advertisement.
Besides, the sample size of the study is not mentioned. Had the study been
carried out on a large sample covering various age groups and people from
different backgrounds, it would hold more value.
The comparison between food products and home appliances is illogical. There is
no similarity between the two. The advertisement of a drink or a food joint would
be related with songs for showing celebrations, whereas an advertisement of a
tool or an appliance would be related with house keeping, which is not as likely to
catch the attention of young children. Moreover, people frequent food joints
often and give instant verdicts on them. The same is true in case of soft drinks.
Thus, the popularity of a drink or a food joint is easy to calculate. On the other
hand, people take time to give their verdict on a home appliance. They shall use
the product for months before they can support it or recommend it. Hence, the
result of advertising and the popularity of a home appliance take time to show
effect.
The relation that the sales manager is drawing between advertisement and sales
is weak. His argument seems to be based on the assumption that more
impressionable advertisements lead to more sale. This need not be true.
Advertisements are meant to increase awareness. There is no guarantee that if a
consumer is aware of a product, then he uses it as well. It is possible that
consumers are very much aware of the products of Eco-Power but they do not
prefer to use the same for other reasons. In fact, the sales manager himself
mentions that the company advertised through magazines in the past year but
still the sales declined. Advertising through magazines is also an effective source
of informing consumers. In fact, magazine advertisements are more elaborate and
descriptive. If the sales of the company's products declined in spite of magazine
advertisements, then there is sure to be some other reason for the same. It is
possible that the ads in the magazines were not attractive or descriptive enough.
It is also likely that the magazines used for advertising were not as popular. There
is no description of the 'extensive' measures taken for advertising by the
company. An explanation of the same would give more footage to the efforts
made by the company.
The author concludes that using a popular song for advertising would boost the
company's profits. He draws a direct relation between advertising and profits. The
author's logic here is again questionable. He seems to assume that advertising is
the sole measure required to boost sale. There could be more factors affecting
the sale of the company's products. No doubt advertising does have an impact on
the minds of people. They are attracted towards the product and are likely to use
the appliances advertised. Nonetheless, there is no certainty that this would
increase the profits of the company.
Had the sales manager taken the case of some other similar company or had he
given more concrete evidence in support of his claim, he would be logical in his
arguments.
………………………

The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a company that
builds shopping malls throughout the country.
"The surface of a section of Route 101, paved two years ago by McAdam Road
Builders, is now badly cracked and marred by dangerous potholes. In another part
of the state, a section of Route 66, paved by Appian Roadways more than four
years ago, is still in good condition. Appian Roadways has recently purchased
state-of-the-art paving machinery, and it has hired a new quality-control
manager. Because of its superior work and commitment to quality, we should
contract with Appian Roadways rather than McAdam Road Builders to construct
the access roads for all our new shopping malls."
The vice president in his memo states that they should employ Appian Roadways
to construct the roads that lead to all the new shopping malls made by the
company because of their superior quality work. In the argument given by him, he
proves his point by comparing this company with McAdam Road Builders to bring
out the difference in the quality of work. However, a careful analysis of the
argument shows that the reasons stated by the vice president to contract Appian
Roadways do not indicate that they are the best builders in the town. In the
following discussion, it can be seen how the argument given by the vice president
is not completely convincing.
Each route of any city has a different type of traffic. There are highways where
the traffic is heavy and comprises of heavy trucks and high speed vehicles. On the
other side, some routes are frequented by small vehicles and there are some
where there is very less traffic. Therefore, each route is used differently and
cannot be compared. In the memo, the vice president compares a section of
Route 101 built by McAdam Road Builders with Route 66 built by Appian
Roadways. If Route 101 has cracked badly in just one year as compared to Route
66, which is intact for the past four years, it cannot be just because of the quality
of roads. There are other factors like the one discussed above that are responsible
of the condition of the roads. It is possible that there is more wear and tear of the
Route 101 as compared to that of Route 66 because it is busier and experiences
heavy traffic. Therefore, we cannot blame the builders of Route 101 for its poor
condition completely. It is very likely that if Appian Roadways had paved this
route, it would have met the same fate by now. Therefore, on this basis it would
be inappropriate to say that the quality of work done by Appian Roadways is
better than that of McAdam Road Builders.
Further in his argument, the vice president says that Appian Roadways has
recently purchased state-of-the-art paving machinery and has hired a new
quality-control manager. However, this does not prove that Appian Roadways will
do a better job than McAdam Road Builders. There is no record of the work done
by Appian Roadways with its latest machinery, so if it is successful in delivering
superior quality work or not is not known. Moreover, if the new quality-control
manager is able to maintain the quality work or improve it depends upon his
efficiency. Therefore, on the basis of purchase of new machinery or hiring new
manager it cannot be decided that Appian Roadways would deliver quality work.
There could be other roadway companies in the city which have not been taken
into account by the vice president. It is possible that apart from the two
companies mentioned in the memo, there is another company which is known for
its quality and good work. Therefore, instead of relying upon the few facts given
in the argument, the vice president should find out more about other options
available before making any decision.
From the discussion given above, it can be seen clearly that the reasons given in
the argument are not enough to prove the superiority of work of Appian
Roadways. The argument falls short of explanation in many areas and thus is full
of shortcomings. This concludes that the vice president should do a little more
research to find out which company is going to be the best to pave the roads that
lead to their shopping malls.
………………………….

The following appeared in a newspaper feature story.
"There is now evidence that the relaxed manner of living in small towns promotes
better health and greater longevity than does the hectic pace of life in big cities.
Businesses in the small town of Leeville report fewer days of sick leave taken by
individual workers than do businesses in the nearby large city of Mason City.
Furthermore, Leeville has only one physician for its one thousand residents, but in
Mason City the proportion of physicians to residents is five times as high. And the
average age of Leeville residents is significantly higher than that of Mason City
residents. These findings suggest that people seeking longer and healthier lives
should consider moving to small communities."
The argument given above is a newspaper feature story. It reports that a relaxed
small town life is healthier than the fast paced city life. That is why people should
consider moving to a smaller town for better health and longer life. It supports
this argument with evidence from a small town of Leeville and the city of Mason
by comparing the business and general health of people in the two places.
However, the evidence given in the argument can be taken as a mere fact that
does not support the given statement. The author of the feature story does not
consider the possible interpretations of the facts that he presents as evidence.
Hence, his stand that small town living is healthier for people is not supported
strongly.
The author says that there have been fewer cases of sick leave taken by workers
in Leeville than in Mason City. With this fact the author wants to say that fewer
people fall sick in smaller towns. However, it can be argued that workers engaged
in businesses do not constitute the whole population. There could be many
people in Leeville who are not workers, like students, females, children and the
old, but are falling sick and have health related problems. It is likely that there are
fewer businesses in Leeville since it is a small town. Consequently, compared to
Mason City, there would be fewer workers as well. Therefore, if there are few
reports of sick leave taken by workers, it is not because people are healthier in
Leeville but because there are fewer workers in the town as compared to Mason
City.
The argument further gives the ratio of the number of physicians of the place for
every thousand residents as proof of better health in smaller towns. This is,
however, a baseless evidence since it does not prove that the health of people in
smaller towns is better than that of bigger cities. If there is only one physician for
thousand residents of Leeville, it does not indicate that the number of patients is
lesser as well. How healthy the residents of a place are is not seen by the number
of physicians but by the number of patients. There are chances that the number
of patients that a single physician sees is higher in Leeville than the number of
patients seen by the physicians of Mason City. Moreover, the health of a society
also depends upon the efficiency of these physicians. Hence, this fact that there
are fewer physicians in Leeville does not prove that the health of the residents is
better than in Mason.
Last but not the least, it can be argued that the findings of Leeville and Mason City
cannot be used to generalize the fact that people in smaller towns live longer and
healthier lives. It might be true that the average age of residents of Leeville is
more than that of Mason City, but this may or may not be true for any other
place. There could be other small towns where the average age of residents is
lesser than that of those in Mason City. Similarly, there could be another big city
apart from Mason City, where the people experience better health and longer
lives than those of Leeville do. The health of a person is dependent upon many
factors like health care facilities, pollution, stress etc. While there are many
factors like pollution and stress that is inherent in city life, it is also true that a
bigger city offers better health care facilities, qualified and experienced doctors
and clean living conditions. Hence, the measure of the health of residents is
subject to many factors that are ignored by the author. Moreover, it is clear that
the evidence provided by the author is baseless and therefore the argument does
not have any logical explanation because of which it becomes weak and
inappropriate.
………………………….

The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW
radio station.
"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming
from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the
number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the
total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area
report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in
neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the
recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better
informed about politics."
In the argument that appeared in the memorandum of KNOW radio station the
general manager suggests to shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a
continuous news format. This suggestion comes after a study of certain factors
that support the change like increase in the number of old people and decrease in
the sales of recorded music etc. However, these factors also indicate towards
another direction that is not considered by the general manager. In that case, his
suggestions stand null and void.
The first example that the general manager takes is that the number of older
people in the listening area of KNOW radio station has increased and the total
number of its listeners has gone down recently. The manager is quick to put these
two facts together to conclude that the old do not listen to rock-and-roll.
However, we cannot confirm this fact from the given argument. It is likely that a
large number of listeners of the radio station comprise of old people and this does
not indicate an increasing trend towards news related programs.
The music stores in the same area have reported a decreased sale of recorded
music. While recorded music has its own customers, they cannot be classified in
the listeners of any radio music programs. A radio program has its own charm
which is not the same as recorded music. That is why, those who listen to
recorded music may not be the same as those who listen to the music programs
on a radio. If the music stores in the area report a decrease in the sales of its
recorded music, it does not mean that this indicates a decrease in the number of
listeners of the radio music as well. There could be other factors that could have
resulted in the decline in the sale of recorded music, which is independent of the
radio programs. For example, it is possible that the quality of music has gone
down, or the price of recorded music has increased. In that case, a change in the
sale of recorded music does not point towards a change in the tastes of people
who listen to radio music programs.
If continuous news stations have been very successful in the neighboring cities, it
does not have any connection with the area of KNOW radio station. Every area
has its independent listeners. We cannot determine the tastes and preferences of
a particular area by knowing the tastes of its neighboring areas. Therefore, if
people in this area would prefer continuous news station over music or not
cannot be confirmed from the success of news station in the neighboring cities.
Further, it can be said that if local citizens are interested in getting better
informed about politics, it does not mean that they have lost their interest in
music. Entertainment and recreation has its own place and importance. It cannot
be replaced by the interest of people in becoming aware about politics of a place.
The success of a news station does not depend only on whether its listeners want
to listen to music or news. It greatly depends upon the quality of news reports
that it telecasts. Even if KNOW radio station changes from a rock-and-roll music
station to a news station, it does not confirm the success of the radio station. To
be successful, it will have to satisfy the needs of the listeners. Considering this, it
is likely that the listeners of the music station have declined due to its low levels
of performance and quality. It is possible that the listeners in the area are still
interested in rock-and-roll music but they do not like the programs and services of
KNOW radio station. In that case, the radio station should improve its functioning
instead of changing its programs. Moreover, a decrease in listener-ship also
depends upon other factors. For example, it is likely that people are preferring
television over radio. It is also likely that people do not have the time to listen to
radio and that is the cause of decline of its listeners.
It is clear from the discussion given above that there are many other possibilities
of the given factors which do not indicate towards a change from rock-and-roll
music to continuous news channel. Therefore, the argument given above can be
called irrelevant and lacking in logic enough to support its conclusion.

The following appeared as a letter to the editor of a local Solano newspaper.
"The Solano school district should do away with its music education programs.
After all, music programs are not especially popular in our schools: Only 20
percent of our high school students participated in music programs last year.
Furthermore, very few of the Solano district's college-bound students are
interested in majoring in music at the university level. Also, when the school
district of our neighboring town of Rutherford eliminated its music programs two
years ago, the overall grade point average in the high school increased by 10
percent the next year. Surely the money spent on Solano music programs could
be better used to improve the quality of traditional academic courses."
The author of the letter to the editor of the local Solano newspaper holds the
view that music education programs carried out in the schools of its district
should be discontinued. This argument is supported by baseless evidence given by
the author which, according to him, prove that there is decreased interest of
students in music and that music education is a waste of money. This view
however, can be criticized due to its one-sided nature.
The author says that only 20 percent of students from high schools have
participated in music programs last year, which is a small number according to
him. However, this may not be the case. There is no comparison presented by the
author of the number of students who have participated from other places in
such shows. Moreover, the argument gives an account of only the most recent
year and there is no record of the level of participation in the previous years.
While taking a decision of discontinuing music education programs due to the low
levels of participation, the percentage decline of the past years should be taken
into account and not just that of the most recent year.
At the university level, students become selective of the subjects they choose.
However, in high school they are not choosy. A high school should ideally offer
education for all the subjects since the basis of personality and education of a
student is formed here. Even if very few students from Solano's colleges are
interested in majoring in music in the university level, high schools should give
them the basics of music. Due to the majority, the few students who choose
music should not suffer. If music education programs are discontinued in high
school, these students will not get any basic education in music, which is very
important for university education.
In the argument, the author says that the overall grade point average in the high
schools of neighboring Rutherford district increased by 10 points after music
education programs were discontinued. However, a careful analysis of this
argument brings out many unexplained questions which are vital to know before
making any judgement. Firstly, it is not sure if the change brought in the high
schools of Rutherford district will suit the schools of Solano or not. If
discontinuing music education has proved helpful in bringing up the grades of
students in Rutherford, it may not prove as successful for students of Solano
district. Secondly, it is likely that along with discontinuing music education
programs, the high schools of Rutherford district have introduced some other
changes that have benefited the average grade point. For example, there could
have been an increase in the number of teachers and a decline in the student-
teacher ratio which has improved the average grades. It is likely that the teachers
have been replaced by more experienced and qualified staff that works hard to
improve the grades of students. These factors could have been the actual cause
behind the increase in the grade point rather than discontinuing music education.
As discussed earlier, high schools form the basis of a student's personality. It is

very important to introduce all the subjects to students so that it not only helps in
development of an all around personality but also helps in bringing out the
inherent talent and interests. That is why music education programs are very
important in high schools. It should not be taken as a waste of money, but efforts
should be made to introduce things like latest music instruments etc. so that the
interest of students in music is kindled. Hence, it can be seen that the author of
the letter to the editor has not been thoughtful enough to present his suggestions
and must give it another thought so that his way of thinking improves.
………………………….

The following appeared as part of an article in a local Beauville newspaper.
"According to a government report, last year the city of Dillton reduced its
corporate tax rate by 15 percent; at the same time, it began offering relocation
grants and favorable rates on city utilities to any company that would relocate to
Dillton. Within 18 months, two manufacturing companies moved to Dillton,
where they employ a total of 300 people. Therefore, the fastest way for Beauville
to stimulate economic development and hence reduce unemployment is to
provide tax incentives and other financial inducements that encourage private
companies to relocate here."
The author of the article that appeared in a local Beauville newspaper suggests
that for economic development Beauville should follow reducing tax rate and
providing financial inducements as done in the city of Dillton. He makes this
statement by considering the development of the economy of Dillton due to the
effects of such changes and is hopeful of the same in Beauville. However, in a rush
of excitement, the author has not taken into consideration a complete view of the
situation. It is equally likely that these suggestions prove to be ineffective, or even
result in the deterioration of the economy of Beauville.
First of all, it must be made clear that the economy of one city is different from
another's. The factors that lead to the present economical status of a place are
not the same everywhere. For example, if a city is self-sufficient and produces its
own raw materials for factories, has good technical know-how and is financially
sound, its economy will be progressive. For the development of its economy, it
also requires a stable and good administration as well as favourable laws. Other
factors like poverty, unemployment, gap between the rich and poor etc. also play
a very important role in determining the way of progress of the economy.
Considering this, the background of both the cities should be compared for
similarities in order to employ the strategies of Dillton to Beauville. However,
there is no account of the present situation of both the cities. If Dillton has
benefited with the changes mentioned in the article, it could be because it is a
progressive and economically sound city. On the other hand, if Beauville does not
have favourable factors or does not have a sound economy, such changes might
not be as effective. Contrary to the hopes of the author, it might prove disastrous
to lower the corporate tax rates if they form a major part of the government's
income. To put it in simple words, the author's claim that Beauville would benefit
if the same changes are introduced in it, as in the city of Dillton, is not convincing
because both the cities are independent of each other and their economies are
not comparable.
In the argument, the author says that within 18 months, two manufacturing
companies moved to Dillton due to reduction of corporate tax and incentive of
relocation grant offered by the government. The author has however ignored the
history of the number of companies that have moved into the city of Dillton. It is
likely that in the past also there have been many companies that have moved into
the city due to its progressive nature. However, there is no account of how many
companies had established in the past in the same city. It is likely that the rate of
introduction of new companies was the same, or even higher before the changes
were introduced than what it is now. Therefore, it cannot be determined by the
fact that two manufacturing companies have moved in the city in the last 18
months that Dillton has benefited from these changes.
With new companies establishing in the city there is an increase in employment

opportunities. However, if a company is relocating itself from another place to a
new place, it is likely that it retains its employees. It is possible that if a new
company relocates in the city of Beauville, it brings its workforce that it had
employed earlier with itself. It would benefit from keeping the old workers since
they are experienced and know their job, rather than employing a whole lot of
new workers and training each one of them. This view has been ignored by the
author. Therefore, against what the author perceives, any new company might
not help in reducing unemployment, but on the contrary it might increase the
population of the city.
Corporate tax forms a great part of the government's total tax collection from the
city. These taxes are used by the government to support the city and develop its
infrastructure. A reduction in this will reduce the amount that the government
uses for the purpose of development and upliftment of the society. Hence, it
makes a great difference to the economy of any city if this share is reduced.
Moreover, the author does not suggest any other financial inducement that the
government should follow to encourage relocation of private companies.
Therefore, the fate of these inducements cannot be determined. It is evident that
the author has shown skeptical behaviour in giving such suggestions and he must
consider the above given discussion before giving his argument.
……………………………..

The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Mira Vista
College to the college's board of trustees.
"At nearby Green Mountain College, which has more business courses and more
job counselors than does Mira Vista College, 90 percent of last year's graduating
seniors had job offers from prospective employers. But at Mira Vista College last
year, only 70 percent of the seniors who informed the placement office that they
would be seeking employment had found full-time jobs within three months after
graduation, and only half of these graduates were employed in their major field of
study. To help Mira Vista's graduates find employment, we must offer more
courses in business and computer technology and hire additional job counselors
to help students with their resume's and interviewing skills."
In the memorandum presented by the president of Mira Vista College, he

suggests that there should be more courses related to business and computer
technology as well as more job counselors so that more of their graduates get
jobs. He takes a hint from nearby Green Mountain College, where there are more
such courses as well as job counselors, more students have been able to get jobs
in the last year. However, the president ignores that there are other factors also
which help the graduates get jobs. A closer look of the argument given by the
president exposes his narrow and irrational thinking.
The president is taking into consideration only the last year's record of Green
Mountain College, when 90 percent of their graduates could secure jobs for
themselves. There is no mention of the percentage of students getting jobs in the
previous years. However, there is no mention of introduction of new courses, or
increase in the number of counselors during this last year. Therefore, these
courses existed earlier as well. It is left to believe that in the previous years also
there were more students securing jobs in the Green Mountain College than in
Mira Vista College. However, there is no confirmation of this fact. It is thus
possible that there have been more students from Mira Vista College getting jobs
than Green Mountain College in the past considering the previous years. In that
case, it is not due to the courses or more number of counselors that have helped
the graduates of Green Mountain College to get jobs. There could be other factors
that have been ignored by the president.
Further, the president takes an account of only three months after graduation
when he says that 70 percent of graduates of Mira Vista College have got full time
jobs. It is possible that in a couple of months there is an increase in the number of
job placements of graduates of Mira Vista College. Hence, this is not an account of
the success or failure of the type and number of courses offered at the college.
The president says that only half of the number of graduates who could get jobs
were employed in their major field of study. However, there is no mention of the
nature of jobs offered to the graduating seniors of the Green Mountain College. It
is possible that more than half or nearly all the 90 percent of the students did not
get job offers in their major field of study. The president only says that the
graduates from Green Mountain College had got job offers from prospective
employers. However, if these jobs were related to or based on the courses in
business or not is not known from his argument. Moreover, the selection of jobs
is a personal matter of students. It is likely that a student chooses a field other
than his major field of study even after getting an offer for the same. Therefore,
there is more to the comparison done by the president than what he sees, which
can change the idea presented by him.
There are many factors that any employer seeks in graduating seniors before
offering jobs to them. Apart from the courses they have attended, their attitude
towards work, their dedication, personality, involvement in extra curricular
activities etc. is also seen. An employer would measure dedication and willingness
to work over the degrees held by an employee. Introducing more courses or
employing more job counselors cannot help much to change the attitude and
dedication of students towards work. Moreover, the president ignores other
factors which are responsible for getting good jobs. Apart from the interviewing
skills and qualification, there is a lot that depends upon the quality of education.
It is likely that an employer looks into the academic record of students, or
conducts a test to check their skills. In that case, it is the quality of education
imparted amongst students which gains importance. However, there is no
account of the quality of education imparted in any of the colleges.
Clearly, the president has ignored rational thinking in presenting his

memorandum. He has ignored other factors which could have helped in securing
jobs for graduates. On the contrary, his memorandum is solely based on the
statistics of job placements available to him.
…………………………

The following appeared as an editorial in the local newspaper of Dalton.
"When the neighboring town of Williamsville adopted a curfew four months ago
that made it illegal for persons under the age of 18 to loiter or idle in public places
after 10 p.m., youth crime in Williamsville dropped by 27 percent during curfew
hours. In Williamsville's town square, the area where its citizens were once most
outraged at the high crime rate, not a single crime has been reported since the
curfew was introduced. Therefore, to help reduce its own rising crime rate, the
town of Dalton should adopt the same kind of curfew. A curfew that keeps young
people at home late at night will surely control juvenile delinquency and protect
minors from becoming victims of crime."
The editorial that appeared in the local newspaper of Dalton expresses a concern
regarding the rising crime rate in the town and suggests that the town should
adopt a curfew to keep the young people away from public places after 10 p.m.
He makes this suggestion keeping in mind the neighboring town of Williamsville
where this policy of curfew has reduced youth crime in the past four months. The
editorial seems to be logical at the first glance. However, a closer analysis of the
argument presented in it exposes its flaws and shortcomings. A curfew for the
youth may not be a perfect solution since there are many other aspects attached
to it.
Firstly, it can be argued that the observation of a drop in the crime rate in the
town of Williamsville has been done only in a span of four months. This could be a
temporary change till the time the youth find other ways of creating a ruckus. It is
possible that within a longer period of the curfew being imposed in the town,
there are reports of crime form some corner or the other of the town. While a
curfew may be successful in curtailing crime, it may be only a short-term solution.
Considering that the curfew has been in effect for the past four months only, its
long term effects are not known. Hence, the author of the editorial should not be
so confident about imposing a curfew in Dalton to control crime rate.
Secondly, imposing a curfew at night might have reduced the crime rate at that
time, but the argument does not give any account of the crimes committed during
the day. It is likely that because of the restriction at night, the young begin to
show aggression during the day. Therefore, if there is a decrease in the crime rate
at night, it is likely that because of the curfew there is an increase in the day crime
and the situation remains more or less the same.
Thirdly, a curfew like this which imposes restrictions on the people under the age
of 18 is undemocratic. It is against the right of a person to move freely according
to his wishes. Imposing a curfew is making arbitrary use of the powers given to
the administration. There are many under 18 who prefer to party or get together
at night. These people may not be criminals. Because of a few criminals who are
active during the night, imposing such a restriction over all people is against the
freedom of others and surely not advisable.
Further, a comparison between the towns of Williamsville and Dalton on grounds

of crime and solutions to curtail it is not genuine or called for. While the editorial
mentions that the citizens of Williamsville were once most outrageous, we cannot
say if it is comparable to the rising crime at Dalton. Further, there is no mention of
the involvement of the young in the outrageous behaviour in the crime in Dalton.
Hence, putting a curfew on the youth of Dalton may not curtail crime rate.
Moreover, both the towns could have different types of crimes committed at
night. Therefore, the solution should be according to the crime committed. It
cannot be said that if a curfew has proved successful in the town of Williamsville
it would prove the same in Dalton.
The author of the editorial ignores that imposing a curfew at night over all the
people under 18 involves a lot of investment. There would be a requirement of
more police officers to be on duty at night than before. Arrangements for
patrolling the whole town would have to be made which would involve a high
cost. Further, the argument is restricting in nature. Instead of putting restrictions
over people, there should be ways of reforming them so that the crime is
completely uprooted. Measures should be taken to improve the conduct of the
young, centers where juvenile delinquency is dealt with should be established,
parents should be made to realize their role and the efforts should be made to
give a proper direction to the energy of the youth. The editorial, however, is silent
about these suggestions and due to the above given discussion the argument
loses its ground.

The following appeared in a memo written by a dean at Buckingham College.
"To serve the housing needs of our students, Buckingham College should build a
new dormitory. Buckingham's enrollment is growing and, based on current
trends, should double over the next fifty years, thus making existing dormitories
inadequate. Moreover, the average rent for an apartment in our town has
increased in recent years. Consequently, students will find it increasingly difficult
to afford off-campus housing. Finally, an attractive new dormitory would make
prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham."
In the above given memo from the dean at Buckingham College, the dean
suggests that they should increase the number of dormitories in the college since
the number of students will double in the next fifty years. He says that not only
will it save the students from off-campus housing which is difficult to afford, it will
increase enrollment at Buckingham College. This memo presented by the dean
does not give a logical and practical suggestion and a closer look at his argument
makes it insufficient to support the suggestion.
The dean is of the view that based on the current trend, the enrollment to the
college will double in the coming fifty years. Considering this, the existing
dormitories would be insufficient for all the students. However, if this trend is
likely to continue like this is a matter which needs to be given a thought. Fifty
years is a long period of time. There are many changes that happen in the
administration and the running of a college. If the students are choosing to get
enrolled in Buckingham College today, this might not be the case tomorrow.
Enrollment of students depends upon many factors like the reputation of the
college, job placements of graduates, courses offered, quality of education
imparted etc. All these factors are variable in a span of fifty years. Therefore, it
cannot be said for sure that in the next fifty years, the enrollment would double.
Considering this, building a new dormitory might be a useless decision.
The dean further says that the average rent of an apartment in the town has
increased in the recent years. However, if the rent is likely to continue to increase
in future is a question that matters for students who seek off-campus housing.
The prices of property see a lot of variation in short durations of time. The
average rent of any apartment depends upon the property prices of that time.
What the property prices are going to be in the next fifty years cannot be
determined today. Hence, if off-campus accommodation will be unaffordable or if
it is going to be comfortable for students is a matter of time. Moreover, if the
average rent of an apartment is high in the town, the students have a choice of
taking up an accommodation in the suburbs. Students can also form groups to
share an apartment with which the burden of the rent is shared by all and it is not
difficult on the pocket of any one of them. The dean ignores these possibilities
and simply assumes that students will prefer a dormitory instead of off-campus
accommodation.
The dean gives his final reason of building new dormitories and says that it will
increase student enrollment in the college. This is, however, a very small factor
which may effect student enrollment. As discussed earlier, there are many other
factors which affect the enrollment of students. The students not only see the
accommodation facilities given by the college but overall performance of the
college while taking admission into it. Thus, the presence of dormitory is a
secondary issue amongst many students seeking admission in a college.
Moreover, many students prefer to take up an off-campus accommodation
because it offers them independence. If they stay in a dormitory, they will have to
bind themselves according to the rules of the college which can restrict their
freedom. Therefore, even in the presence of a dormitory in the college, students
might prefer to take up off-campus accommodations.
The dean also ignores the possibility of another college of repute coming up in
future. In a span of fifty years there can be a number of new colleges rising in the
town. It is possible that students prefer to get enrolled to other colleges than to
get enrolled to Buckingham College due to the facilities offered as well as the
reputation held by the other colleges. Therefore, it cannot be confirmed that
student enrollment will double in the next fifty years. On the contrary, it might go
down due to the increase in the number of colleges. The dean should consider
these possibilities before suggesting such a decision. Building dormitories involves
a great initial cost. The dean, however, does not seem to be concerned about this
and simply presents a memorandum loosely based on assumptions and future
possibilities.
……………………..

The following appeared in a memo at the XYZ company.
"When XYZ lays off employees, it pays Delany Personnel Firm to offer those
employees assistance in creating resume's and developing interviewing skills, if
they so desire. Laid-off employees have benefited greatly from Delany's services:
last year those who used Delany found jobs much more quickly than did those
who did not. Recently, it has been proposed that we use the less-expensive Walsh
Personnel Firm in place of Delany. This would be a mistake because eight years
ago, when XYZ was using Walsh, only half of the workers we laid off at that time
found jobs within a year. Moreover, Delany is clearly superior, as evidenced by its
bigger staff and larger number of branch offices. After all, last year Delany's
clients took an average of six months to find jobs, whereas Walsh's clients took
nine."
This argument is based on the recommendation made in a memo at the XYZ

company that XYZ should continue to use Delany instead of Walsh as its
personnel service for helping laid-off XYZ employees in finding new jobs.
According to the speaker, last year XYZ employees using Delany services found
jobs much more quickly than those who did not, and the average Delany client
found a job in 6 months, compared to 9 months for the average Walsh client. The
argument is based on many assumptions and there is no evidence given in
support of these assumptions.
First of all, the author has said that laid-off employees have benefited greatly
from Delany's services. Those employees who used Delany found jobs much more
quickly than those who did not. However, the author fails to mention the quality
of jobs they got. More people finding jobs quickly does not reveal job satisfaction
and salary. The author has not given any evidence in support of his assumption
that the employees have greatly benefited from Delany's services.
The next evidence cited by the author is comparison of Walsh personal Firm's
services with that of Delany's on the basis of its placement rate eight years ago.
Walsh's prior rate of placing laid-off XYZ employees is not a reliable indicator of its
performance at present. There might be some other factor like economic slow
down, which is not under Walsh's control behind the low placement rate 8 years
ago. Moreover, the author cannot say with surety that at present Delany is better
than Walsh based on eight years old records. The author has not provided any
such data.
Further, the author claims that last year Delany's clients took an average of six
months to find jobs, whereas Walsh's clients took nine months. However, he has
not discussed about the price difference of Delany and Walsh. He has also not
mentioned about the job satisfaction of the clients and the salary they got.
Therefore, without considering and ruling out these factors, the author cannot
conclude the argument.
In the last, the author commits a fallacy of ungrounded assumption. As per the
author, Delany is superior as it has a bigger staff and many branch offices.
However, he forgot to mention the efficiency of the staff. Although Delany has a
big staff, the efficiency of the staff might be quite low. It is right that Delany has
large number of branch offices, but locations of those offices are not mentioned.
If these offices are located far from the center of the city, then they might not be
good for finding good jobs. Hence, this point also does not justify the author's
recommendation.
In short, the author has made hasty conclusions. The memo's author should have
provided better evidence like from XYZ's records, he could have got the data to
prove that Delany's services have consistently helped laid-off XYZ employees find
jobs. Instead of comparing Walsh and Delany based on 8 years old records, the
author should have provided better evidence.

The following appeared as an editorial in the student newspaper of Groveton
College.
"To combat the recently reported dramatic rise in cheating among college and
university students, these institutions should adopt honor codes similar to
Groveton's, which calls for students to agree not to cheat in their academic
endeavors and to notify a faculty member if they suspect that others have
cheated. Groveton's honor code replaced an old-fashioned system in which
students were closely monitored by teachers and an average of thirty cases of
cheating per year were reported. The honor code has proven far more successful:
in the first year it was in place, students reported twenty-one cases of cheating;
five years later, this figure had dropped to fourteen. Moreover, in a recent survey
conducted by the Groveton honor council, a majority of students said that they
would be less likely to cheat with an honor code in place than without."
This argument is based on an editorial in the student newspaper of Groveton

College. As per this editorial, the institutions should adopt honor codes similar to
Groveton's to combat the recently reported dramatic rise in cheating among
college and university students. The author has pointed out the effectiveness of
the honor codes system in Groveton College. However, this argument contains
several critical flaws, which render it unpersuasive.
First of all, the author gives the conclusion without comparing the situation of
other institutions with that of Groveton College. The author has not given enough
details about the measures taken by Groveton College. There might be some
other measures also, which were put into execution at the same time with the
honor codes system, that must have helped to abate the cheating number of
students. There is also a possibility of the exam becoming easier for the students.
Hence, there is a probability of the other changes being effective instead of the
honor codes system. Even if the honor codes system is effective in Groveton, it
does not necessarily mean that it will have the same effect in other institutions.
The author should have ruled out these possibilities before concluding the
argument.
Secondly, it is wrong on our part to assume that simply by saying that the
students agree not to cheat in exams, these students actually will not cheat. It is
quite possible that they tell lies and they will cheat irrespective of what they have
promised. Similarly, suspecting a student of cheating does not mean that he is
really cheating. May be the student who is suspected by another one actually
does not cheat. If that be the case, then it will be wrong to punish that student
and being wrongly suspected by other student will harm the relationship between
the two students.
The author has also said that that the honor code is successful by only showing
that five years later the number of cheats declined to fourteen from twenty-one
in the first year. However, he failed to consider that it is also possible that many
students just do not want to inform their faculty when they suspect that someone
is cheating. The number of cases reported does not necessarily mean the number
of actual cases. It might be possible that students have reduced reporting the
cases or they have lost faith in the new honor code system. Without considering
and ruling out these and other possible explanations, the author's conclusion is
doubtful.
In addition, the reduction from 21 cases to 14 cases is not a great improvement to

have taken place in 5 years. It might have been that proper counseling sessions
had been given to the students in these five years and it might have made them
reform their old ways. In that case, more emphasis should be given to providing
successful counseling sessions to students rather than embracing the new honor
code.
The author should have given details of a survey where students were asked the
reasons why they cheat in exams. He should have collected reliable inputs from
the faculty members regarding the new honor codes system and the other
measures to stop cheating. That should have supported his argument in a much
better way.
……………………………..

The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of
Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related
products.
"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas
where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should
therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents.
Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are
at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to
lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and
aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of
customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for
life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."
The argument is based on a memo written by the vice president of a chain of

stores selling health food and other health-related products named Nature's Way.
The vice president of Nature's Way recommends that the company should build a
new store in Plainsville because this place has residents who are highly concerned
with leading healthy lifestyles. He has supported his argument by citing
information about sale of sports products, the situation of local health club and a
program called "fitness for life" in schools. However, none of these evidence lends
credible support to the recommendation.
In the first place, the sale of running shoes and exercise apparel makes no sense
to the conclusion that the residents would be interested in buying Nature's Way
products. People of Plainsville might pay more attention to exercise rather than
health diet. It is highly possible that exercise apparel happens to be fashionable at
the moment. Even if the sales of these products can represent the residents'
enthusiastic attitude towards keeping themselves healthy, there is no information
that shows that their passion towards exercise would continue or increase.
Hence, this evidence is not strong enough to conclude the argument. On the
contrary, there is a chance of their believing that as a result of regular exercise
they are sufficiently fit and healthy and do not need a health diet.
Secondly, the popularity of the local health club is little indication that Nature's
Way will earn a profit from a store on Plainsville. There is no evidence that shows
that the poor business of local health club five years ago was due to little concern
of residents towards health. In the past the club might have had a high
membership fee or poor quality of equipment or untrained instructors and
therefore, people did not go to it to exercise any more. Moreover, now the
success of one health club cannot represent other clubs also. May be the local
club is doing well now due to change in its management and improvement in the
whole quality of the club. The author has not given convincing arguments in the
support of his recommendation.
The third point is the fact that a certain fitness program is mandatory for
Plainsville's schoolchildren. This fact accomplishes nothing towards bolstering the
recommendation. The author has not thought about the other side of this point
that students who participate in a "fitness for life" program might not buy food
from Nature's Way. Moreover, they exercise a lot by playing football, baseball etc
to keep themselves healthy. Hence, they are not the customers of the health diet.
Hence, the author's recommendation is based entirely on some assumptions and

the author has failed to support his assumptions with concrete evidence. The
author should have analyzed the market and understood the attitude of residents
in Plainsville. He should have talked to people who are the health club's members,
exercise regularly, buy exercise clothes etc. In addition, other information, such as
the detailed situation of club, taste of children and average income of people in
Plainsville would have helped to take a decision.
……………………………………………….

The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the
Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.
"Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of

restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what colors
the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values
have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres,
we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and house painting."
In this letter, a committee of homeowners recommends that only adopting the

set of restrictions on landscaping and house painting can raise property values in
Deerhaven Acres. The author has supported his argument by pointing out that
seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of
restrictions on the community's yards and the colors of the exteriors of homes,
which made the average property values, triple in Brookville. However, the rise in
the average property values may not be a result of landscaping community's
yards and changing the colors of the exteriors of homes. There are many other
critical fallacies in this argument, which the author failed to handle. Without
taking into consideration all other factors actually responsible for the property
value rise, the argument cannot be concluded.
First of all, the committee has not provided enough data that can justify that the
measures taken by Brookville community directly resulted in the property value
raise. There is no evidence to prove that landscaped yards and unified exterior
colors are the direct cause or the main cause responsible for the rise in property
value. It might be just a coincidence that after those restrictions, the average
property values in Brookville tripled. There are many other reasons that can
influence the rise of the property values. The area might be the central place and
hence, more approachable. The area might be greener or closer to the shopping
areas, hospitals, schools, or airports etc. All these factors can attract people to the
area and they can plan to buy houses in that particular area. This will definitely
raise the property value in that area.
Moreover, we cannot compare the two areas. It is not necessary that if the
uniform yard and colors contributed to the increase of the property value in
Brookville community, then it will bring about similar success in Deerhaven Acres
also. The author has not considered the personalities of people living in the two
communities, their tastes, living styles, and their economic conditions etc. Hence,
it would be wrong to conclude this argument in the absence of such observations.
Furthermore, the author has taken seven year old example of Brookville, which
may not be relevant in today's context. It might be possible that seven years ago,
people valued the appearances and the yards quite a lot when assessing a
community. However, today, people may pay more attention to the area where
the community is located, the nearby circumstances, the inside conditions and
facilities in the house etc. People might be more open and liberal and they might
not like the unified community yards and colors.
The author should have done a survey to justify the relation between the applied
restrictions and average property values in Brookville. He should have analyzed
whether the factors affecting home prices in the two areas are the same or not.
The author should have discussed the location of Deerhaven Acres, policy of
government to develop the area etc. The author should have provided some
additional evidence to support his argument.
…………………………..

The following appeared in a newspaper article about law firms in the city of
Megalopolis.
"In Megalopolis, the number of law school graduates who went to work for large,
corporate firms declined by 15 percent over the last three years, whereas an
increasing number of graduates took jobs at small, general practice firms. Even
though large firms usually offer much higher salaries, law school graduates are
choosing to work for the smaller firms most likely because they experience
greater job satisfaction at smaller firms. In a survey of first-year students at a
leading law school, most agreed with the statement that earning a high salary was
less important to them than job satisfaction. This finding suggests that the large,
corporate firms of Megalopolis will need to offer graduates more benefits and
incentives and reduce the number of hours they must work."
This argument claims that large, corporate firms of Megalopolis should offer law
graduates more benefits and incentives as well as decrease their working hours.
He has supported his argument by citing the facts that in the last three years,
more law school graduates went to work for smaller firms. According to the
author, graduates feel more job satisfaction in smaller firms that they do in larger
firms even though larger firms can offer much higher salaries. The author has also
cited a survey of first year law students at a law school. According to the survey,
most of the students give more importance to job satisfaction instead of high
salary. However, all of this evidence does not provide support to the argument.
The first evidence cited by the author that the number of law school graduates
working in larger law firms has decreased in the last three years does not mean
that law school graduates did not want to work in larger law firms. There might be
several other reasons for that. It is possible that in the past three years, the
business of smaller firms has increased as people were inclined to ask smaller law
firms for help because smaller firms offered service with lower price. Due to this,
the revenue of larger firms might have decreased and they must not be recruiting
new employees in large numbers. Hence, the author cannot conclude the
argument due to this reason.
The second evidence as per the author is that the graduates in Metropolis are
taking jobs in smaller firms for job satisfaction and salary is not very important for
them. However, the author has not provided any data, which will establish a
connection between job satisfaction and benefits, incentives and the reduction of
work hours. The author failed to think about the fact that job satisfaction mainly
results from the sense of job achievements that depends on how well a person
finishes his job and accordingly acquires the respect from his co-workers. There is
no doubt that job satisfaction is also partly related to benefits, incentives, and
reduction of work hours. However, this reason does not convince that the
suggestion of the author is reasonable.
The author has also tried to support his suggestion with the results of a survey
that shows the viewpoint of the first-year students in a leading law school.
However, this survey does not represent the viewpoint of all the graduates in
Megalopolis. It is highly possible that the students from other ordinary law
schools pay more attention to higher salary. They might be ready to put in more
work hours in their jobs to gain experience, popularity, and importance. They
might need to have more money to support their life and family when they go to
work. Anyways every person has a different meaning of job satisfaction.
Moreover, the viewpoints are different when one is a student and it changes
when one gets into professional life.
The author has assumed many things and he could not support his suggestion
with convincing evidence. The author should have conducted a citywide survey to
explain the viewpoint of graduates in Megalopolis towards the choice of a job. In
addition, he should have collected the other benefits of working in smaller firms.
………………………………….

The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.
"Of the two leading real estate firms in our town - Adams Realty and Fitch Realty -
Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has
25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was
twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000,
compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: Ten
years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell;
last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one
month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you
should use Adams."
In this argument, the author recommends us to use Adams, one of the two
leading real estate firms in his town. As per him, Adams is much better than Fitch
Realty, the other leading real estate firm in the town. He has supported his
argument by comparing some aspects of the two firms to convince us like Adams
Realty has more real estate agents, more revenue, and it is more efficient in
selling houses than Fitch on the basis of his own experience ten years ago.
However, this argument seems specious on several grounds.
In the first place, the author's assumption that having more agents means good
service is unconvincing. According to him, Adams' service is better than Fitch's
because it has 40 real estate agents while Fitch has only 25. However, he has
nowhere mentioned the qualifications of agents in the two firms. It might be that
the agents in Fitch are more qualified, trained, and experienced. Hence, it does
not require more agents and the agents do not need to work full time. Anyways,
the quality of the service cannot be related to only a factor of the number of
employees. There are many other things that should be taken into consideration,
such as social reputation of the company, the feedbacks of customers and the
company's work culture to avoid making the assertion too unwarranted.
The second point that the author has raised is that Adams' revenue last year was
twice as high as that of Fitch. This data is not very clear. The author has not
mentioned the service charges of the two companies. There is a possibility of
Adam's charges being much more than those of Fitch's. It might be the adequate
reason for the gap in revenue of both the firms. There is also another possibility
that Adams sells only high priced houses or some particular type of houses, which
brings more income. Hence, the argument cannot be concluded without all this
information.
Lastly, the author cites that Fitch sells homes slower than Adams does. He has
given a ten years old example of his own experience. According to the arguer's
narrative, he entrusted his home to Fitch ten years ago and it took four months to
sell his house. While when he registered his another house with Adams, it sold his
house in one month. However, the author has not mentioned the location,
condition, area, material used and size of the two houses. There is a high
possibility that the new house was easier to sell because of its good location or
good condition. Moreover, during a long span of ten years, the situation varies
significantly in many aspects, for instance, the changes in the real estate domain,
the changes of the society that lead to the differences in the demand of houses
and the inflation. Under this circumstance, Adams' success, however, is merely
ordinary. The author has concluded the argument too hastily without considering
all these possibilities.
Hence, the argument seems very unconvincing. The evidence produced by the
author to assess the two real estate firms like only the number of agents and the
revenue is not sufficient. The author should have considered many other factors
such as the efficiency of employees, their familiarities to the real estate market
etc.
……………………………..

The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.
"Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is
expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years,
pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis
should be very profitable. Many analysts believe that in ten years Becton
Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for
arthritis, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. But the patent on
Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a
cheaper version of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most
profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a
new drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by
seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis."
In this argument, the writer has simply assumed that the Perkins pharmaceuticals
will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company in the next ten years and the
Becton pharmaceuticals will not get much profit. However, the evidence provided
by the author is insufficient to support the conclusion. If we give a look at this
argument closely, we will find it unconvincing. The author's argument is
completely based on assumptions.
First of all, the author unfairly assumes that the rising number of the sufferers of
arthritis is sure to bring the profit to pharmaceutical companies that are making
drugs to treat arthritis. The author has not considered that the treatment of some
kind of arthritis does not need pills. It can be treated by dietary changes or change
in life styles. Pills are one of the many types of clinical treatments. There is a
possibility that increasing number of arthritis patients can be treated by
alternative methods and they do not require drugs. The author has not offered
any evidence to rule out all these possibilities. Hence, this argument cannot be
concluded on the basis of this reason.
The second point that the author has raised shows that the author himself is not
very sure of it. On one hand, he says that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals,
which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most
profitable pharmaceutical company. On the other hand, he does not provide any
substantial evidence to argue that Xenon will not be popular after its three years'
patent expiration. He has just assumed that other companies would be able to
produce cheaper medicines. It is entirely possible that Becton Pharmaceuticals
can also create more effective and useful drug as it got patent on Xenon some
years ago. Moreover, Becton Pharmaceuticals can also reduce the price of Xenon
as other companies do. From the author's statement, we can get that Xenon is a
very successful drug for arthritis, hence there are high chances that the maker of
a so successful drug will try to produce a new and maybe better drug
Even if we assume that Xenon will lose popularity in the future, the argument that
Xylan will be the most profitable drug in ten years is unconvincing. There is no
data showing that if Xylan is preferred by the sufferers of the extreme cases, then
it will be popular among other types of cases. Different cases can require different
treatment and drugs. Hence, the author cannot convince that Perkins
Pharmaceuticals, which produces Xylan, will earn the most profit in ten years.
The author has not produced the required information to establish that Perkins
Pharmaceuticals will be the most profitable company. He should have provided
the benefits of the drug produced by Perkins. Besides there are also chances that
some new company will produce a new drug for arthritis that will be more
popular with the patients. The writer should have made a comprehensive survey
and considered the factors not only from now but also from the future
prospective.
…………………….

The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a
group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise.

Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C
Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in
Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer,
several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio
program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a
nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per
year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make
money."
In this argument, the author claims that the new jazz club, C Note will do great
business in Monroe, as there is no jazz club within an area of 65 miles and people
of Monroe are fond of jazz music. He has cited a lot of evidence in his support. To
support his point of view, the arguer has pointed out that the highest-rated radio
program in Monroe is "Jazz Nightly". He has also talked about a nationwide survey
to show that a typical jazz fan spends nearly $1000 per year on jazz
entertainment. The reasons given by the author seem sound and reasonable at
first glance, however, there are several logical flaws in the argument that
undermine the arguer's conclusion.
Firstly, the author assumes that because the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away, his
proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. However, he
has not thought about the reason why there is not any other jazz club in that
area. There are chances that someone might have opened a jazz club before, but
closed because it had few customers and he could not earn money. He also failed
to establish the relationship between the nearest jazz club being 65 miles away
and C Note dominating the local market. The club 65 miles away might be having
much better service and a low-ticket price. Moreover, that club might have a high
reputation and fixed customers, who probably will drive at least 65 miles to enjoy
the specific service he or she likes most. Hence, this evidence does not prove that
C Note will necessarily dominate the local market.
Secondly, the author made a hasty generalization. He simply equated the fact that
because over 100000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival and the high-rated
radio program is "Jazz Nightly", C Note will automatically make lots of money. The
author has nowhere mentioned the proportion of the native people who
attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer. There is a possibility that there were
more tourists who attended the festival. There are chances that the people's
salary in Monroe is low, thus, people probably do not have money to spend in the
jazz club. Even if they like jazz music, they prefer listening to the radio rather than
going to a jazz club. Hence, these reasons do not guarantee the success of C Note
in Monroe.
The reason that many well known jazz musicians live in Monroe also does not
hold any ground. It does not establish any relationship with the success of C Note.
They could be living in Monroe because of its good living conditions.
Finally, the author supported his argument with a nationwide study that indicates
that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per years on jazz entertainment.
However, if a jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment it
does not mean that he will spend money on going to a jazz club. He may buys jazz
CD, DVD, and to see live jazz play.
Hence, the argument lacks thorough analysis and reliable statistic. The author
should have investigated the actual number of people going to the jazz club. It
would have strengthened his argument.
……………………………………

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.
"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green,
who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a
member of the Clearview town council, because the current members are not
protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of
factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the
local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If
we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be
solved."
This argument is based on the editorial that appeared in a Clearview newspaper.

As per this editorial, in the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview we
should vote to replace Frank Braun who is a member of the Clearview town
council with Ann Green who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition. The writer
has supported his recommendation by citing that more number of patients with
respiratory illnesses is reported in the local hospital and this is due to increase in
the number of factories in this area. Based on this evidence, the author has
concluded that the current council members have failed to protect the
environment, which is a serious problem, and hence, the increase in the number
of respiratory illnesses is due to the council. However, there are several logical
flaws in this argument.
The first point referred by the author is that the number of factories has doubled
in the area. However, the author has not provided any significant proof to
establish a relation between respiratory diseases and the factories. He has not
even mentioned the types of factories established in the town. There is a
possibility that the factories are not the actual cause of the pollution. They might
not be emitting smoke or harmful gases. The factories here might be strictly
obeying the laws of protecting environments, and must be filtering all the
emissions from the factory. The newly increased factories might be the high tech
software companies that do not emit foul gases and smoke. The author provides
no evidence to substantiate his assumptions, so it is unfair to blame the factories
for the increased number of illnesses.
Secondly, the increase in the number of patients in the local hospital does not
indicate that more people have got respiratory illnesses last year itself. Perhaps
the reported increase is due to the increasing awareness among the Clearview
town residents about respiratory illnesses. There are chances of patients coming
from the other towns due to good facilities in the local hospital. In addition, the
respiratory illness can be due to increase in bad habits like smoking. Hence, no
conclusion can be drawn about the Clearview's environment problem based on
the record of respiratory illnesses last year.
Even if we consider that the environment conditions are worsening in the town,
there is no evidence that Frank Braun is the key person behind this policy of the
council. Therefore, there is a possibility that though Frank Braun holds a strong
environment-protecting concept in the local voting about environment, but he
has no authority to stop the passage of the council's decision. Similarly, just
assuming that Ann Green, who is from the Good Earth Coalition will play a key
part in the council's decisions and have the authority to make some changes to
the local environment is not acceptable. The evidence provided by the author are
not convincing at all.
The writer should have provided the voting record of Frank Braun and his
authority in making environment laws. He should have provided the types of
factories installed in the town whether they emit smoke and harmful gases.
Above all, dedication of Ann Green towards the environment laws is also required
to conclude the argument.
………………………………………..

The following appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning
department at Omni Inc.
"Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its products
within a relatively small region of the country, has strong growth potential. Mesa
enjoyed a 20 percent increase in profits last year, and its best-selling product,
Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past three years. Since
Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the age group that
consumes the most snack food, we should buy Mesa Foods, and concentrate in
particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa throughout the country."
According to the author, Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds.
Hence, it should buy Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods. The author has
drawn this conclusion on the basis of certain facts like Mesa enjoyed a 20 percent
increase in profits last year and its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had
increased sales over each of the past three years. However, there are several
fallacies in the argument and it is certainly not convincing.
First of all, the author has mentioned about the profits of Mesa foods in the last
year. He has not talked about the previous years. It is possible that Mesa Foods
did not earn much profit in those years. Hence, it is difficult to judge the trend of
business for Mesa. In addition, there is no evidence to show that sales will keep
on growing. There is no evidence to show long-term performance of Mesa Foods
and its ability to maintain good momentum. Moreover, the arguer writes that the
products of Mesa are sold only in a relatively small region of the country. Hence,
the customer base of Mesa may be relatively small too and after a certain
increase in the sales, growth might stop or decline.
Secondly, the increased sales of the best-selling product of Mesa, Diabolique

Salsa, do not mean Mesa Foods has development potential for granted. It cannot
be ruled out that it is just because Diabolique Salsa caters to the local taste that it
has had increased sales over each of the past three years. Hence, whether
Diabolique Salsa will be welcome in other regions or not is doubtful. It is unfair on
the author's part to assume that the other place of nation would like the Mesa
Foods as well. There is no firm evidence to make us believe that Mesa Foods has
great development potential. Unless the author can provide evidence that the
best-selling product Diabolique Salsa is the best profits product, he cannot draw a
conclusion from that.
Finally, according to the author, the target customer base of Omni Inc. is the
youth in the age group of 14-25 years. The author has assumed that just stepping
in the snack food business would make Omni Inc achieve its target customers
without providing any ground evidence to support. This point is just an
assumption that this age group people usually consume all snacks. However,
there is no such data that shows that this age group people are the customers of
Mesa Foods. We cannot rule out the possibility that the main customers of Mesa
is beyond the age group of 14-to-25 years old. Thus, the author should provide an
accurate study on Mesa's customers to show that buying Mesa really will benefit
Omni Inc's interests.
Hence, the argument seems groundless and unconvincing. The arguer should
have provided sufficient evidence to strengthen his recommendation that Mesa
Foods has strong growth potential. The author of the argument should provide
sufficient survey to prove that the people of other places of the nation would like
to eat Mesa Foods as well.
………………………………..

The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at Omega University.
"Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that

encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors.
Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher grades in their
classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by thirty percent.
Potential employers apparently believe the grades at Omega are inflated; this
would explain why Omega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs
as have graduates from nearby Alpha University. To enable its graduates to secure
better jobs, Omega University should now terminate student evaluation of
professors."
In the memorandum the dean at Omega University expresses that student

evaluation of professors has been the cause why Omega graduates have not been
able to get jobs as compared to Alpha University. He says that students have been
getting higher grades since student evaluation of professors has been started and
it has not benefited in getting them jobs. Therefore evaluation of professors by
students should be stopped so that the graduates can get better jobs. The
argument presented by the dean does seem to be logical but it has certain
loopholes which can have a great effect on its validity.
The dean has underestimated the importance of evaluation of professors by

students. It is very important to check the work done by professors from time to
time in order to assess their work. It has been seen many times that professors do
not take pains to teach in the class and instead take private tuitions after the
college hours. Moreover, professors have a laid back attitude towards completing
syllabus, making students understand the topics and checking their progress. In
order to check all these practices it is very important to evaluate the work done
by professors. This can be done best by students because they are in a direct
contact with these professors. The dean ignores the importance of checking the
professors of the university which can also have an effect on the grades of
graduates and the jobs being offered to them.
The overall student grade averages may have risen by thirty percent in the past
fifteen years, but this fact can be independent of the evaluation of professors
done by students. The dean supports that the students are getting grades that
they do not deserve since there are not securing jobs despite a higher grade.
However, the inflated grades could also be a result of a change in the pattern of
exams. There could have been a change in the past fifteen years which makes it
easier for students to score in the exam. Therefore, if students are getting higher
grades, it could be because of their performance in these exams which make
them score higher. Therefore, the professors should not be completely held
responsible for the increase in the average grades of students.
The dean also ignores the attitude of students towards studies. While some
students might take the opportunity of evaluation of professors as a chance to
score higher, there can be students genuinely interested in studies. There are
mixed types of students in a university. There can be average students, low
scorers as well as geniuses and toppers. The toppers, majority of average scorers
as well as many low scorers are more concerned about their studies and scoring
on their merit than get involved in getting a high score out of practices like
student evaluation of professors. Thus, even if the professors give them higher
grades in order to have a better image in the eyes of the students and save their
jobs, it is possible that these students are unaffected by this. Therefore, there are
many students who deserve the grades that they get. This should make them
equally capable of securing jobs as graduates from any other university. If more
graduates from Alpha University are able to secure jobs for themselves than from
Omega University, there can be reasons for this other than that mentioned by the
dean. It is possible that Alpha University has different types of courses that are of
more value for the potential employers. Thus the employers seek graduates from
these courses rather than from courses running in Omega University. It is also
likely that if the students from Omega University are not able to get jobs for
themselves as compared to those of Alpha University it is because they have not
been able to perform well in interviews conducted by employers. In that case,
Omega University should employ job counselors to teach the students
interviewing skills rather than abolish student evaluation of professors. A careful
analysis exposes the loopholes in the argument of the dean. The memorandum
does not seem strong enough to support the decision of abolishing student
evaluation of professors because all the reasons given by the dean are
questionable. Hence the dean should think again and present a logical and
foolproof solution to help students get jobs for themselves.

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.
"The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms
throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago.
During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food
Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers
from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of
milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such
regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of
milk for consumers."
The given argument highlights the fact that the price of milk at the local Excello
Food Market has increased from $1.50 to $3.00 per gallon despite the report
given by the department of agriculture in Batavia that the number of dairy farms
across the country has increased by 25% in the past 10 years. The arguer
recommends that the Batavia government should regulate retail milk prices for
three reasons. The reasons quoted by the arguer are that this regulation will
prevent farmers from gaining excessive profits from an increased supply of milk,
lower prices will be ensured and there will be an adequate supply of milk for the
consumers. The argument stands unconvincing despite the evidence provided in
its support as the evidence in itself is highly questionable.
A major stumbling block for the argument is the assumption that the milk prices
of the local Excello Food Market are an indication of the milk prices throughout
Batavia. The relationship between the milk prices throughout Batavia and those
at the Excello Food Market has not been explicitly established by the argument.
Hence, the contention that the Batavia government needs to regulate its retail
milk prices does not sound convincing enough. Moreover, the arguer does not
present any evidence that proves that the profits from the sale of milk are higher
than those accrued from the sale of other products. It is likely that whatever
profits that are being accrued by the farmers are being contradicted by the cost
involved in producing and distributing the milk. Therefore, the assumption that
the farmers are receiving excessive profits from the sale of milk is baseless.
Hence, the reason quoted by the arguer for the regulation of milk prices does not
stand on firm ground.
The assumption, that an increase in the number of dairy farms across the nation
implies that the milk supply has also increased, fails to convince the reader. It is
not necessary that a major percentage of the new dairy farms are located in
Batavia. Even if there are a substantial number of new diary farms in Batavia, it is
not necessary that this has led to an increase in the milk supply. This is because
the new dairy farms may be equipped with machinery for the production of other
dairy products like cheese and milk cream. Hence, the supply of milk to the
population of Batavia may not be affected by a great margin despite the increase
in the number of dairy farms.
Finally, the arguer overlooks the fact that imposing a regulation on the milk prices
would lead to the farmers trying out other profit making businesses. They would
not like to run a business which gets them less profits. Therefore, the assumption
that the regulation would ultimately result in an adequate milk supply for
consumers does not sound convincing.
The argument could have been substantiated with the presence of clear evidence
that proved the link between the Excello milk prices and an increase in the
number of dairy farms across the country. Moreover, there is a requirement of
strong evidence that proves beyond doubt that the proposed regulation would
indeed result in an adequate milk supply for consumers. To sum up, one can say
that the conclusion arrived at by the argument is not supported by adequate
evidence and hence, it fails to convince the reader that the recommendation
made by the arguer is justified.
………………………….

The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of West Egg.
"Two years ago, our consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used
for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past
two years, however, town residents have been recycling twice as much aluminum
and paper as they did in previous years. Next month the amount of material
recycled should further increase, since charges for garbage pickup will double.
Furthermore, over ninety percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that
they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our residents' strong
commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for
considerably longer than predicted."
The mayor of the town West Egg asserts that the space available in West Egg's
landfill for garbage disposal would last for a time period longer than the five years
that were predicted two years ago. He provides three assumptions in support of
the assertion made by him. Firstly, the recycling of aluminum and paper by the
town residents has doubled in the past two years. Secondly, the amount of
material to be recycled will presumably increase as the charges for garbage
pickup will double up from the coming month. Lastly, as per the results of a
recent survey, more than ninety percent of the participants claimed that they will
be increasing their recycling efforts in the future. Despite the assumptions made
in its support, the argument fails to convince the reader that the assertion made
is well balanced and reasonable.
It is not necessary that aluminum and paper are the only waste materials that will
be dumped at the landfill. The argument makes no mention of the other types of
waste materials like plastic and rubber. If these types of waste materials are not
being recycled, then they are bound to be dumped at West Egg's landfill and they
will obviously contribute to the filling up of the available space. Therefore, the
contention that the increase in recycling of aluminum and paper will make a huge
difference to the filling up of the landfill cannot be considered as reasonable.
The arguer makes the assumption that the increase in the charges for garbage
pickups will lead to an increase in the amount of waste materials being recycled
by the residents. However, the arguer fails to provide adequate proof that can
prove beyond doubt that a majority of the residents of West Egg will resort to
recycling garbage by themselves in order to avoid paying higher charges for
garbage pickups. Additionally, the arguer has not addressed the issue wherein the
residents would have to find some way of disposing waste materials that cannot
be recycled. In such a case, they will be forced to avail the facility of garbage
pickup and hence, they may lose interest in attempting to recycle some of the
garbage themselves as they would already be paying to get the remaining garbage
disposed. Therefore, this assumption fails to support the assertion that an
increase in the garbage pickup rates would lead to a greater amount of garbage
being recycled by the residents themselves.
The evidence provided by the arguer in the form of the results of a recent survey
does not stand on firm ground as there is no mention of the statistics related to
the ninety percent of people who are keen on recycling garbage in the future.
There is no indication of the proportion of people among these ninety percent
who are already recycling waste materials. If a majority of these ninety percent
people are already recycling garbage, then their committing to recycle garbage in
the future would make no major difference to the rate at which the available
space at the landfill would get filled as compared to what had been calculated
two years ago. Moreover, with the passage of time, there is bound to be an
increase in the town's population and the additional people will add waste
materials to the garbage being dumped at the landfill. The perspective of these
people has not been included in the survey and therefore, the results of the
survey do not hold good for predicting that the available space at the landfill will
last for longer than five years.
Therefore, no evidence provided by the arguer supports the assertion made in the
argument. The argument could have been substantiated better if the arguer had
provided tangible evidence to prove that there will be a significant increase in the
amount of waste materials being recycled and this would make a huge difference
to the depletion of the available space at West Egg's landfill resulting in its lasting
for more than the predicted five years.
…………………………………….

The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Alta Manufacturing.
"During the past year, Alta Manufacturing had thirty percent more on-the-job
accidents than nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts are one hour
shorter than ours. Experts believe that a significant contributing factor in many
on-the-job accidents is fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers. Therefore,
to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at Alta and thereby increase
productivity, we should shorten each of our three work shifts by one hour so that
our employees will get adequate amounts of sleep."
The vice president of Alta Manufacturing contends that on-the-job accidents can
be reduced and productivity can be increased if the work shifts for the employees
are shortened by one hour each. The arguer provides the example of the nearby
Panoply Industries where the work shifts are an hour shorter than those of Alta
Manufacturing and the frequency of on-the-job accidents are lesser than those of
Alta Manufacturing by thirty percent. Additionally, the arguer provides the
assumption that fatigue and sleep deprivation are a major cause of on-the-job
accidents. This assumption leads the arguer to conclude that the employees will
utilize the extra hour for getting an adequate amount of sleep, thereby reducing
the chances of on-the-job accidents. There are a number of fallacies in the given
argument that render the argument indefensible.
The arguer has completely ignored the other factors that may be responsible for a
higher rate of on-the-job accidents in Alta Manufacturing as compared to Panoply
Industries. It is likely that the quality of the machines being used by Panoply
Industries is much better than those of Alta Manufacturing. Moreover, it is likely
that the workers of Panoply Industries are well trained for handling the machines
and the workers at Alta Manufacturing are not skilled enough to handle the
machinery. Additionally, the arguer does not shed light on the nature of the work
being carried out in Alta Manufacturing and Panoply Industries. There is a
possibility that the work at Panoply Industries is largely automated. Hence, the
workers at Panoply Industries may not be directly handling the machines leading
to a lower rate of on-the-job accidents. Therefore, the argument cannot be
substantiated by the evidence provided by the arguer in the form of a comparison
between the rates of on-the-job accidents of these two different companies.
Even if the working conditions of Alta Manufacturing and Panoply Industries are
comparable, it cannot be said with conviction that sleep deprivation leads to on-
the-job accidents. The arguer has not presented any evidence that establishes this
link and hence, it is difficult for the reader to digest the fact that the main reasons
for on-the-job accidents are fatigue and sleep deprivation. Moreover, the arguer
has overlooked the fact that it is not necessary that the extra hour provided to
the workers by shortening their work shifts will be utilized by them for sleeping. It
is likely that the workers may use the additional hour for some other work and
they would be as sleep deprived as they had been when they had longer work
shifts. Hence, the whole purpose of shortening their work shifts would be
defeated.
Lastly, relating productivity to on-the-job accidents is a highly unreasonable

assumption. The productivity of a company is dependent on various factors and
on-the-job accidents are the least likely to feature in the list of such factors. The
productivity of a company can be increased by training its workers, maintaining a
good supply of raw materials, adhering to deadlines, utilizing a good management
department, improving the types of machinery used and the technology being
utilized. Therefore, the given argument has been considerably weakened by the
assumption that a lesser number of on-the-job accidents will increase
productivity.
The arguer could have substantiated his recommendation by providing evidence

that proved the link between sleep deprivation, fatigue and on-the-job accidents.
Moreover, there is a requirement of evidence that proves beyond doubt that the
additional hour provided by shortening the work shifts will be utilized by the
workers for sleeping. In the absence of such evidence, the recommendation made
by the arguer is not justified.
……………………………………….

The following appeared in a memo from the chief executive of a video game
company.
"We have recently been offered the opportunity to buy the rights to produce a
video game based on the soon-to-be-published children's book 'Squirrel Power,'
by Peter Wood. While the cost of the rights is substantial and will place economic
constraints on our company in the short-term, there are two reasons that the
purchase of these rights will undoubtedly be a wise investment. First, Wood's last
three books have been best sellers and the movie based on his first book was
highly profitable. Second, the popular characters and story line in 'Squirrel Power'
will save us time in developing our video game, thereby reducing our costs."
The chief executive of a video game company recommends that it would be a

wise decision to purchase the rights of a video game based on the children's book,
'Squirrel Power', which has not yet been published. He supports his
recommendation by presenting two facts. The first fact is that the last three
books of Peter Woods, the writer of 'Squirrel Power', have been best sellers and a
movie that had been based on his first book had raked in high profits. The second
fact is that the cost of developing the video game will be reduced as the popular
characters and story line would already be available and therefore, the company
will take lesser time to develop the video game. However, none of the facts
presented by the arguer succeeds in substantiating the recommendation made in
the argument.
The arguer does not provide information about the content of the last three
books of Peter Woods. It is likely that those books dealt with some other areas of
interest and were written with some other target readers in mind. It is likely that
the last three books were suspense thrillers or romantic novels and therefore,
they turned out to be best sellers. The same cannot be said about a children's
book being written by the same author. There is a strong possibility that the first
book was written by Peter Woods keeping in mind that there is going to be a
movie based on it. This would explain the high profits brought in by the movie
based on his first book. The target readers for 'Squirrel Power' are children and
they would not be going out to buy the book; rather the decision to buy the book
would rest with their parents who may not be keen on investing money in books
related to stories and fictional characters as compared to buying educational
books for their children. This line of reasoning puts a big question mark on the
success of 'Squirrel Power'. Therefore, the assumption that 'Squirrel Power' would
be as successful as the previous books of Peter Woods fails to sound convincing to
the reader.
The argument does not convince the reader that the company will save time in
developing the video game, thereby saving the cost involved. The story book
probably consists only of descriptions of the characters involved. There is no
mention of the inclusion of illustrations in the book. Therefore, the illustrators
and designers of the company are bound to take a lot of time in designing the
characters. There will be a number of revisions before the actual characters are
approved for animation. Moreover, how can the characters be termed as popular
when the book is yet to be published? The argument does not establish a clear
relation between the story of the book and the proposed plan of action in the
video game. Therefore, the assumption that the time to develop the game will be
reduced due to the availability of the book is grossly flawed.
The statement made by the arguer that the cost of the rights is very high and it
would lead to economic constraints on the company contradicts his assertion that
the decision to buy the rights would be a wise one. As the book has not yet been
released, the arguer is taking a huge risk by assuming that the book and
subsequently the video game will be a huge success. A major lacuna in the given
argument is that it fails to convince the reader that the company will be able to
cover up the money invested in buying the costly rights of the video game.
Therefore, the recommendation made by the arguer is highly unconvincing as he
fails to provide evidence that proves that 'Squirrel Power' will be as successful as
its predecessors.
………………………….

The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening
Center, a small business serving a suburban town.
"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in
growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated
that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables
available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine GreatGardens has
sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green
Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety
of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."
The owner of the Green Thumb Gardening Center recommends that their
business can accrue greater profits by providing a wider variety of vegetable
seeds that they stock for gardeners. The owner argues that his recommendation
is valid since there is an increase in the number of consumers who are interested
in growing their own vegetables. The arguer presents the findings of a national
survey and the sales of the local gardening magazine as evidence in support of his
recommendation. A careful analysis of the given evidence highlights that the
argument is weak as the evidence fails to support the recommendation made by
the arguer.
The first evidence provided by the arguer in the form of a national survey does
little to convince the reader that the consumers are increasingly showing interest
in growing their own vegetables. It is not necessary that the findings of a national
survey will hold true for the residents of a suburban town. The argument does not
provide the statistics related to the percentage of the town's residents who were
a part of this survey. Hence, it is likely that the town's residents are quite happy
with the quality of the vegetables available in the local market. Even if there was a
sizeable representation of the town's residents in the survey, being dissatisfied
with the quality of fresh vegetables does not imply that the residents will resort
to growing their own vegetables. This is because the arguer does not provide any
evidence to support the fact that if the residents are dissatisfied with the quality
of fresh vegetables, then they would prefer to grow the vegetables themselves.
Hence, the given argument fails to establish a link between the national survey
and the requirement of the town's residents to buy vegetable seeds.
The second evidence provided by the arguer weakens the argument further
rather than strengthening it. The argument may have been strengthened if the
arguer had provided the statistics related to the number of copies of the
magazine that is stocked by the newsstand. It is likely that in the last three
months, the Village News stand has reduced the number of copies that it stocks.
This may be the reason why the magazine is being sold out. Additionally, it is likely
that the Village News stand was incurring losses due to the poor sales of the
magazine and that is why they reduced the number of copies being stocked.
Moreover, the argument makes no mention of the sale statistics of the magazine
at the other outlets in the town. It is possible that the magazine has poor sale
statistics at the other book stores in town. Even if the gardening magazine is very
popular with the residents, it does not necessarily imply that the residents are
keen gardeners. They may like the magazine for other reasons like the
informational content of the magazine. Hence, there is no visible link between the
magazine being sold out and an increase in the number of residents who would
like to buy vegetable seeds for growing vegetables on their own.
Hence, the evidence provided does not convince the reader that stocking
additional varieties of seeds would bring in higher profits for the Green Thumb
Gardening Center as the arguer fails to prove that the number of people wanting
to buy these seeds will increase in the coming spring.

The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to

reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat
products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently
marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's
sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We
therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors
not to purchase stock in this company."
The given argument advises the stockholders of Old Dairy Industries to sell their
shares and it recommends that investors should not purchase shares of this
company as it is likely to face a sharp dip in sales and profit. The arguer has based
his recommendation on evidence that highlights the desire of 80 percent of the
participants of a recent survey that they would like to reduce their intake of high
fat foods. The arguer adds that most of the food products marketed by Old Dairy
are high in their fat and cholesterol content and low-fat products are easily
available in most of the other food stores. Using the above mentioned
assumptions, the arguer concludes that the sales and subsequently the profits of
Old Dairy are going to reduce. However, the argument lacks critical information,
the absence of which has rendered the argument indefensible.
Firstly, the results of the survey clearly indicate that 80 percent of the participants
have expressed a desire to reduce their intake of food products with high-fat
content. There is a wide difference between expressing a desire to do something
and actually executing it on ground. It is likely that these 80 percent are still
purchasing food products that are high in fat and cholesterol. The results of the
survey have not included information related to the percentage of people who
have already restricted their intake of food products with high-fat content.
Moreover, the results of the survey cannot describe the opinion of the entire
population as there is no description of the section of the people who were a part
of this survey. It is likely that the survey was conducted among the older
generation of people and therefore, 80 percent of them expressed their concern
for restricting their diet. It is likely that a majority of the younger generation of
people still likes to consume products that are high in fat content and they have
no intention of switching to low-fat food products. Therefore, the findings of the
survey fail to substantiate the recommendation made by the arguer.
The second evidence presented by the arguer refers to the abundant stock of low-
fat products in food stores. It is not necessary that this stock indicates a
requirement of low-fat products. On the contrary, it is likely that there are
diminished sales of low-fat food products and therefore, their stocks are not
depleting in the food stores.
The argument does not provide concrete evidence to support the contention that
the company will face severe losses due to declining sales. Even if the company
does face some form of decline in sales, it might continue to make profit. This is
because the profits of a company are calculated on the basis of the investment
made in the business and the cost of running the business coupled with its
maintenance. It is likely that Old Dairy Industries is an old establishment and it has
already recovered its initial investments. Additionally, the arguer does not make a
mention of the profit margins of the company. Therefore, the assumption that
people are keen on avoiding the consumption of high-fat products may not affect
either the sales or the profits of Old Dairy at all.
The argument could have been strengthened with additional information that
proved a link between the results of the survey and the opinion of the entire
population and their subsequent action on ground. Moreover, the argument lacks
information pertaining to the sale and profit statistics of Old Dairy. Hence, the
advice being given by the arguer to the stockholders of Old Dairy and other
investors should be completely ignored as it is grossly flawed.
…………………………….

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper from a
citizen of the state of Impecunia.
"Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery to supplement
tax revenues for education and public health. Today, Lucria spends more per pupil
than we do, and Lucria's public health program treats far more people than our
state's program does. If we were to establish a state lottery like the one in Lucria,
the profits could be used to improve our educational system and public health
program. The new lottery would doubtless be successful, because a survey
conducted in our capital city concludes that citizens of Impecunia already spend
an average of $50 per person per year on gambling."
The argument utilizes the example of Lucria to arrive at the conclusion that the
educational system and public health program of Impecunia can be improved by
establishing a state lottery as in the case of Lucria. The arguer credits the state
lottery of Lucria for the fact that Lucria spends more on its pupils and it treats
more people as compared to Impecunia. The arguer further asserts that the
lottery in Impecunia will undoubtedly be successful and he uses the results of a
survey carried out in the capital of Impecunia to substantiate this assertion. The
said results state that on an average, a resident of Impecunia now spends $50 per
year on gambling. As it stands, the argument provides scant evidence to prove
that the lottery will succeed in achieving whatever is being claimed by the arguer.
The fact that Lucria is spending more per pupil cannot be linked to the profits
from the state lottery as there may be other funds from where the state is
drawing the amount to be spent on education. It is likely that the state
government of Lucria allocates a larger share of the annual budget to its
department of education. Additionally, it is possible that Lucria is a larger state as
compared to Impecunia and therefore, it boasts of higher state revenue.
Therefore, the argument fails to provide crucial evidence that can lend support to
the claim that establishing a state lottery in Impecunia will help in creating
additional funds to be spent on education.
The same reasoning holds true for the health program of Lucria. It is possible that
the provision of health related facilities is of a high priority in the state of Lucria
and therefore, the number of people treated by Lucria's health program is far
more than that treated by Impecunia's health program. Moreover, the expertise
of the health professionals and the infrastructure required to carry out
treatments in Lucria may be far superior to those of Impecunia. Therefore, in the
absence of credible evidence to establish a link between the profits of the state
lottery and good health related services, the assumption that Impecunia can
improve its health program by establishing a state lottery is totally baseless.
The results of the survey carried out in the capital city lend no support to the
argument. It is not necessary that people who are compulsive gamblers would like
to invest in a lottery too. If the people are already spending $50 on gambling, they
may not consider spending an additional amount on a lottery which has just been
established. Moreover, the argument does not specify the form of gambling that
the people resort to. Probably they gamble when they are away on vacations or
they like to invest money in racing horses. Such people may have little or no
interest in lotteries. One cannot ignore the fact that the survey was carried out in
the capital city. The argument provides no information about the gambling habits
of people residing in other small towns and villages of the state. It is likely that
they neither gamble nor are they interested in lotteries. Hence, the argument fails
to prove that the new lottery will undoubtedly be successful.
The argument could have been substantiated by providing convincing evidence in

support of the claim that Lucria's education and health related services have
benefited from the profits of the state lottery. Additionally, there is a requirement
of evidence that proves that the lottery will be able to rake in high profits for the
state of Impecunia as well. In the absence of such evidence, the conclusion drawn
by the given argument has been rendered indefensible.
…………………………………..

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Walnut Grove town
newspaper.
"Walnut Grove's town council has advocated switching from EZ Disposal (which
has had the contract for trash collection services in Walnut Grove for the past ten
years) to ABC Waste, because EZ recently raised its monthly fee from $2,000 to
$2,500 a month, whereas ABC's fee is still $2,000. But the town council is
mistaken; we should continue using EZ. EZ collects trash twice a week, while ABC
collects only once. Moreover, EZ - which, like ABC, currently has a fleet of 20
trucks - has ordered additional trucks. Finally, EZ provides exceptional service: 80
percent of respondents to last year's town survey agreed that they were
'satisfied' with EZ's performance."
The author of the letter has recommended that Walnut Grove should continue to
utilize the services of EZ Disposal, which has been providing trash collection
services in Walnut Grove for the past ten years. This recommendation contradicts
the town council's decision to switch over to ABC Waste, which charges a monthly
fee that is $500 less than that of EZ Disposal. The arguer has presented three facts
as evidence for justifying his claim. The first is that EZ Disposal collects trash twice
a week whereas ABC Waste collects trash only once a week. The second fact is
that EZ Disposal and ABC Waste both have 20 trucks each, but EZ Disposal had
ordered for additional trucks. The third fact is more of an assumption and it states
that EZ provided exceptional services. The arguer has based this assumption on
the results of a recent town survey wherein 80 percent of the respondents had
admitted to being satisfied with the services of EZ disposal. Despite the facts and
assumptions presented by the arguer, the available evidence lends little credible
support to the argument.
Firstly, the fact that EZ Disposal collects trash twice a week renders no support to
the argument, as there is no mention of the benefits of collection of trash twice a
week. In all probability, it makes no difference to the town's residents whether
the trash is collected once a week or twice a week. Therefore, paying an
additional amount of $500 just because the trash is being collected twice a week
fails to lend any support to the argument. The argument could have been
strengthened if the arguer had provided concrete evidence which proved that the
town is in need of trash collection services twice a week.
Secondly, the fact that EZ Disposal has ordered more trucks probably has got
nothing to do with trash collection in Walnut Grove. There is no mention of the
other services rendered by EZ Disposal. It is likely that EZ Disposal plans to use the
additional trucks elsewhere. Additionally, the argument does not mention that
the town's trash disposal process is facing problems due to an inadequate number
of trucks available for trash disposal. Moreover, there is no indication of the time
frame within which the trucks will be available. It is likely that they may not be
arriving in the near future. Therefore, the contention that the availability of
additional trucks with EZ Disposal qualifies as a justified reason for continuing to
avail the services of EZ Disposal is highly unconvincing.
Thirdly, even if 80 percent of the respondents to the survey admitted to being

satisfied with the services of EZ disposal, it does not prove that they are not
willing to try out the services of some other trash disposal company. It is likely
that quality of the services of ABC Waste exceed that of EZ Disposal. Moreover,
the argument fails to prove that these 80 percent of the respondents represent
the entire population of the town. Therefore, the findings of the survey do not
support the recommendation made in any way whatsoever.
The arguer could have reinforced his contention by providing additional

information that proved that the quality of the services of EZ Disposal are much
superior to those of ABC Waste and this could have justified the additional $500
in the charges of EZ Disposal. Additionally, the reader needs to be convinced that
collection of trash twice a week is an absolute necessity and the additional trucks
being procured by EZ Disposal will be used for trash collection of Walnut Grove. In
view of the above, the recommendation that the town council should not switch
over to ABC Waste is neither well supported nor does it sound convincing to the
reader.
………………………………………..

The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.
"In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its
speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55
mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers
are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty
County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads,
we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that
Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths and resurfacing
rough roads. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet
there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year
than there were five years ago."
The author of the editorial claims that the safety effort of reducing the speed limit
from 55 mph to 45 mph on all major county roads in Prunty County has failed in
curtailing the number of road accidents. It has also failed to reduce the number of
drivers who resort to over speeding by not sticking to the laid down speed limit.
The arguer uses this assumption to recommend that the 55 mph limit should be
restored. The arguer states that Prunty County should also carry out a road
improvement project that is similar to the one carried out by Butler County five
years ago. He asserts that the speed limit in Butler County is 55 mph and the
number of accidents reported in the past year were 25 percent lesser than what
were reported five years ago. Despite the evidence provided by the arguer, the
argument stands unconvincing as it is plagued by several flaws.
A major flaw in the given argument is that it makes no reference to the other
factors that may cause accidents. Ill trained drivers, inclement weather and hilly
terrain may be contributing to the accident rate in Prunty County. It is likely that
the lowering of the speed limit is actually effective in reducing the number of
accidents, but the other factors are more responsible for causing accidents
thereby resulting in a minor change in the overall accident rate.
The arguer does not provide an exact time frame for which the new speed limit
has been enforced. Since the speed limit has changed recently, it would be unfair
to pass a judgment on the effectiveness of the lowering of the speed limit. The
speed limit has been decreased on the major roads of the county and the
argument refers to the accident rate throughout the county which has decreased
only slightly. It is likely that the slight decrease in the accident rate is because the
accidents on the minor roads are contributing to the accident rate in a big way.
Therefore, the claim that the reduction in speed limit has had little effect on the
rate of accidents throughout the county is not justified. Hence, the accident rate
throughout the county could be held as credible evidence if it clearly mentions
the percentage of accidents that have occurred on major roads where the speed
limit has been decreased to ensure highway safety.
Evidence provided by the arguer in the form of a comparison between the

accidents rates and speed limits of Butler County and Prunty County does little to
substantiate the recommendation made by the arguer. It is possible that the
driving safety regulations have been made much stricter in Butler County in the
past five years. It is likely that now the driving tests in Butler County have more
stringent passing standards and hence, the drivers in Butler County are well
trained. Therefore, the lower rate of accidents in Butler County cannot be
attributed to good conditions of roads alone. On the contrary, it is likely that the
increased speed limit of 55mph and the good condition of the roads have
prompted the drivers in Butler County to drive rashly leading to road accidents.
There is no mention of similarities in the terrain of Prunty County and Butler

County. If Prunty County has a hilly terrain, then widening the road may be a
difficult task in Prunty County. Even if the terrains are the same and the road
improvement project is undertaken in Prunty County, it is not necessary that the
results will be the same as those observed in Butler County. This is because the
arguer has not been able to establish a link between the reduction of accidents
and the condition of roads in Butler County. The same line of reasoning holds true
for the speed limit of 55 mph as well. Due to lack of evidence that specifically links
the speed limit and condition of roads to the rate of accidents, the arguer fails to
convince the reader that his recommendation is viable.
……………………………………

The following appeared in a letter from the manager of a rock band named
Double Rice.
"One year ago, tickets for Double Rice's concerts in stadiums around the country
took, on average, at least 24 hours to sell out, if they sold out at all. But the band
has been enjoying a surge in nationwide popularity among 14 to 25 year olds, and
the 30,000 tickets for a recent concert in Megalopolis sold out in 12 minutes.
Clearly the ticket sales in Megalopolis are a result both of the band's increased
popularity and of the advertising campaign run in Megalopolis by the Ad Lib
advertising agency. Thus, in order to ensure that the band's success in
Megalopolis is repeated across the country, the band should hire Ad Lib to
duplicate the Megalopolis ad campaign on a nationwide scale."
The manager of the rock band, Double Rice draws the conclusion that the
advertising company Ad Lib should be hired for an ad campaign to be launched
across the country for the band's concerts. The manager supports his conclusion
by presenting the statistics related to the sale of tickets of the band's concert at
Megalopolis. The manager argues that the 30,000 tickets for the said concert
were sold out within 12 minutes because of the publicity generated by Ad Lib's ad
campaign. He compares these statistics with that which existed 1 year ago when it
took at least 24 hours for the tickets to the concerts to be sold out. Additionally,
the manager attributes this sale of tickets to the popularity of the band among
the people who are in the age bracket of 14 to 25 years. Despite the facts and line
of reasoning adopted by the manager, he fails to convince the reader that his
argument is well-reasoned and that the conclusion is justified.
A major flaw in the argument is that the arguer has not discussed any other factor
that may have been instrumental in the overwhelming sale of tickets at
Megalopolis. It is likely that the band was accompanied by some other artists for
the concert. The presence of these artists might have generated an interest in the
concert and the tickets sold out in 12 minutes. Additionally, there is a likelihood
that the venue of the concert was such that there were some other events going
on in the vicinity that attracted large crowds. The people would have bought the
tickets to the concert as they were already present in the neighborhood.
Moreover, the concert was probably held during the summer vacations when the
people, especially the students, were free to spend time attending a concert and
hence, the concert was a success in Megalopolis. Furthermore, it is likely that the
artists of Double Rice band hail from the city of Megalopolis and this could explain
why there was a huge crowd for their concert. In either of these cases, the
publicity campaign by Ad Lib has little or nothing to do with the success of the
concert. Therefore, the justification provided by the arguer in the form of the ad
campaign by Ad Lib for the success of the band's concert in Megalopolis is not
valid.
Even if we assume that the ad campaign by Ad Lib in Megalopolis actually

contributed to the concert's success in major way, it is not necessary that the ad
campaign by Ad Lib throughout the entire country would be as successful as it has
been in Megalopolis. This is because there is no mention of the effectiveness of
Ad Lib in launching a successful campaign in the remaining parts of the country. It
is likely that Ad Lib is based in Megalopolis and they have access to local resources
and probably this could explain why their campaign was a success in Megalopolis.
If the band is indeed popular among the 14 to 25 year olds, it is likely that
Megalopolis is an educational center with numerous colleges and universities and
therefore, its population consists of a large number of young people and hence,
the tickets were sold out in 12 minutes. It is unlikely that the conditions will be
similar in the other cities across the country. Therefore, the assumption that the
ad campaign by Ad Lib would be as successful in the remaining parts of the
country is not justified.
As the argument has failed to clearly link the success of the band's concert at
Megalopolis to the ad campaign by Ad Lib, the conclusion that Ad Lib should be
hired for repeating the same across the country is not justified. The argument
could have been strengthened if the manager had provided credible evidence
that proved beyond doubt that the ad campaign by Ad Lib alone would be
sufficient to rake in high profits for the band. In the absence of such evidence, the
argument is largely flawed and it fails to sound convincing enough.
…………………………………….

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer

months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians,
the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by
each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30
per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town
council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was
achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town
council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
The writer of the letter argues that limiting the number of mopeds that can be
rented will lead to reducing the number of accidents in the Balmer Island in the
summer months. The arguer cites the example of the neighboring island of
Torseau as evidence in support of his claim. There has been a reduction in the
number of accidents in Torseau after similar limits were enforced by the
authorities in Torseau. The evidence provided by the arguer fails to establish a
link between the occurrence of accidents and limiting the number of mopeds that
can be rented out.
The arguer has based his contention on the reduced number of accidents in
Torseau. However, the arguer fails to provide substantial evidence that can link
the reduction of accidents to the limitation imposed on the moped rentals in
Torseau. It is likely that the authorities in Torseau have clubbed some other
activities with the limitation on moped rentals. These activities could be
conducting classes for the tourists on road safety, enforcing stringent traffic rules,
separating lanes for the bicycles and mopeds, ensuring that the footpath for the
pedestrians is well away from the roads, etc. Such measures could have resulted
in the reduction of accidents in Torseau. Additionally, it is likely that the influx of
tourists in both these islands is not the same. There is a possibility that the
number of tourists visiting Balmer is more than those visiting Torseau. Therefore,
since the tourists do not have an idea of the roads and directions to their
destinations, they tend to get careless on the roads leading to a higher number of
accidents in Balmer. Furthermore, it is likely that Torseau saw a lesser number of
tourists last year leading to a lesser number of accidents. Therefore, it is unlikely
that the limitation on the moped rentals had a major influence on the reduction
of accidents of pedestrians with mopeds in Torseau.
Even if one assumes that the restrictions on moped rentals has indeed led to a
reduction in the number of accidents in Torseau, it cannot be believed that
implementing similar restrictions will have the same effects in both the islands.
This is because the arguer has not provided any concrete evidence in support of
the similarities between these two islands. There is no indication of the
geographical structure of the two islands. It is likely that Balmer has uneven or
hilly terrain and the downhill drive is the major cause for moped accidents.
Hence, it is unlikely that implementing restrictions on moped rentals will have the
desired effect in Balmer as the islands of Balmer and Torseau cannot be
compared in light of the inadequate evidence provided by the arguer.
The arguer fails to address the issue of how the tourists will travel if they are
denied access to bicycles and mopeds. It is obvious that a reduction in the
number of mopeds that can be rented out will increase the number of
pedestrians leading to a greater risk of accidents on roads involving pedestrians.
Moreover, imposing a restriction on moped rentals may lead to each of the
moped rental companies diversifying into two or more companies and the overall
number of mopeds will remain the same and the restriction will be rendered
ineffective.
In view of the above, it can be concluded that the argument has failed to convince
the reader. The arguer could have substantiated his claim by proving similarities
between Balmer and Torseau and convincing the reader that the implementation
of similar laws would have the same effects in both the islands. Therefore, in its
present form, the given argument is flawed and unconvincing due to lack of
adequate evidence in support of its claim.
……………………………………

The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a
company that manufactures men's clothing.
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of
high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca
overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume
production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca
overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca
overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most
types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be
willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five
years ago, and our company profits will increase."
The vice president of a clothing manufacturing company asserts that they should
resume the production of their deluxe alpaca coats, the production of which had
been discontinued five years ago due to the non-availability of high quality wool
fabric. The availability of a new fabric supplier is cited as the reason for this
recommencement of production. The arguer utilizes two assumptions to conclude
that the coats will sell very well in the market. The first assumption is that there
would be a pent-up customer demand for alpaca coats in the market as neither
they nor their major competitor has provided alpaca coats in the market in the
recent past. The second assumption is that the customers would be willing to pay
higher prices for alpaca coats as there has been a rise in the prices of clothing in
the last five years. Despite the assumptions made by the arguer, the argument is
fallacious in several respects.
The argument has been rendered weak due to unavailability of information

related to the fabric supplier. As long as the cost and quality of the fabric being
supplied by this supplier is not known, it would be erroneous to assume that the
alpaca coats made from the material supplied by this fabric supplier would be of a
good quality. Additionally, it is possible that the quality of the material being
supplied would be good, but the supplier may not be able to meet the
requirements of the company leading to problems during the production of the
alpaca coats. Even if the supplier is able to meet the requirements of the
company, there is no mention of the credentials of the supplier related to his
trustworthiness and adherence to deadlines. Therefore, the contention that the
production of alpaca coats can be resumed just because the company has found a
new fabric supplier is largely fallacious.
The assumption that there would be a pent-up demand for alpaca coats in the
market is inadequately supported by the evidence that has been provided by the
arguer. It is likely that the production of alpaca coats had been stopped because
they were no longer in demand and this would also explain why Sartorian's major
competitor has not produced alpaca coats in the past. Moreover, it is likely that
alpaca coats have been replaced in the market by coats that are cheap, but of a
better quality. Furthermore, it may be possible that alpaca coats are no longer in
vogue and hence, there is a diminished demand for them in the market.
Therefore, the assumption that there would be a pent-up demand for alpaca
coats in the market could not be substantiated by the arguer due to lack of
credible evidence in its support.
Finally, the assumption that people would be willing to pay a higher price for the
alpaca coats is grossly unconvincing despite the fact that the prices of clothing are
on the rise. In the past five years, it is likely that the people have got used to
buying and using a different style of coat. The alpaca coats will have to face stiff
opposition from such coats which would be having strong consumer support.
Therefore, it is highly unlikely that people will discontinue the use of popular
coats and spend a high amount in trying out the alpaca coats. Moreover, if the
production of alpaca coats had been discontinued five years ago due to lack of
consumer demand, then it is unlikely that this demand will rise overnight and that
the people would be willing to buy these coats at a high price. Additionally, if the
cost of the wool being supplied is very high, it is unlikely that the company would
be able to accrue high profits from the sales of alpaca coats. Therefore, the
assumption that the company will be able to rake in high profits from the sale of
alpaca coats is unjustifiable.
In view of the above, it is evident that the argument is unpersuasive in its present
form due to lack of substantial evidence that proves beyond doubt that the
production of alpaca coats would indeed be a profitable venture for Sartorian.
…………………………………………

The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that builds
and sells new homes in Steel City.
"Over the past five years, the population of Steel City has increased by more than
20 percent, and family incomes in Steel City have risen much faster than the
national average. Nationwide, sales of houses priced above $150,000 have
increased more than have sales of lower-priced houses. Such data indicate that
we should make changes in our business to increase company profits. First, we
should build fewer low-priced houses than we did last year and focus instead on
building houses designed to sell at above $150,000. Second, we should hire
additional workers so that we can build a larger total number of houses than we
did last year."
The president of a company that deals in building and selling homes in Steel City
recommends that they should take two major steps in order to increase the
company's profits. The first is that they should build a lesser number of lower
priced houses and concentrate on building houses that cost more than $150,000.
The second step is that the company should hire additional workers to facilitate
building more houses than they built last year. The arguer provides evidence in
support of the claim that these two steps would lead to an increase in the
company's profits. The first is that both the population and the family incomes in
Steel City have increased over the last five years. The second is that the sales of
houses priced above $150,000 have increased across the nation. However, there
are several fallacies that render the recommendation made by the arguer
indefensible.
An increase in the population does not necessarily mean that a higher number of
Steel City residents would be willing to buy expensive houses. It is likely that
people may move to other cities in search of jobs and they may not be interested
in buying new homes in Steel City. On the other hand, it is likely that this increase
in population is due to the retired people who are coming back to settle down in
their native city. They may already be having their parental houses or they may
not be interested in buying expensive houses for a small family. Additionally, it is
possible that the increase in population is because of new industries coming up
and the people working in such industries are coming from the neighboring cities
and so they may be interested in living in rented rooms only.
The arguer makes an unfair assumption where he presumes that the people
would be willing to buy expensive houses just because they now have higher
family incomes. It is likely that the people who fall in the high income bracket may
be having small families and they may not be interested in investing money in
expensive houses that are too big for their families. Additionally, it is possible that
these people already have homes and therefore, they may not be interested in
buying new homes.
The contention that a nationwide increase in the demand for houses priced above
$150,000 means that there is a similar demand in Steel City as well, seems far-
fetched. It is likely that the nationwide survey had included the metros and big
cities where the people can afford high priced houses. The same cannot be said
about Steel City. It is likely that the people in Steel City do not earn as much as the
national averages and therefore, they might be interested in buying houses that
are cheaper.
Even if we assume that there is a demand for buying high priced houses in Steel
City, there is no justification for hiring additional workers for building more
houses as compared to those that were built last year. The cost of hiring
additional workers and building more homes will require financial investments
and it may be difficult for the company to recover these expenses if they fail to
sell off the houses. Therefore, it is not necessary that this step would lead to
increased profits for the company.
The line of reasoning discussed above makes it apparent that the arguer has failed
to provide a valid justification for building more high priced houses. The argument
could have been substantiated with evidence that proved that the average
resident of Steel City will be able to afford a house priced above $150,000 and
that he would actually be interested in buying one. Moreover, there is a
requirement of the statistics related to the cost involved in hiring additional
workers and building more homes to prove that this would lead to an increase in
the company's profits.
…………………………

A recent sales study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City
restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past five years. Yet there are no
currently operating city restaurants that specialize in seafood. Moreover, the
majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study
has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than
they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about eating
healthily. Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be
quite popular and profitable.
The arguer has drawn the conclusion that establishing a new Bay City restaurant
that specializes in seafood would be both profitable as well as popular. The
argument relies on two facts as evidence in support of the claim made. The first is
that the consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants have increased
over the past five years, but there are no restaurants in Bay City that specialize in
seafood. The second fact states that the majority of the families in Bay City are
two-income families and the results of a nationwide survey have indicated that
two-income families are increasingly concerned about healthy eating habits and
they are eating fewer home-cooked meals. However, the facts presented by the
arguer are insufficient to prove that a new Bay City restaurant specializing in
seafood would be popular and profitable.
The fact that there are no seafood restaurants in Bay City, despite the increase in
the consumption of seafood, does not necessarily mean that a restaurant
specializing in seafood would be popular and profitable. Firstly, the increase in
consumption by thirty percent is insignificant in view of the fact that this has
happened over a period of five years. Moreover, if seafood was indeed so popular
among the residents of Bay City, then restaurants specializing in seafood would
have come up by now. Moreover, the restaurants that serve seafood dishes
would have diversified into separate restaurants for serving seafood dishes only,
if there was a huge demand for the same. The very fact that these restaurants are
continuing to serve seafood dishes in addition to other dishes prove that these
restaurants are not making much profit from the consumption of seafood.
Additionally, it is likely that the increase in consumption is not only for seafood,
but also for the other dishes being served by popular restaurants. People may be
going to these restaurants because they like their preparation or the ambience. It
is highly unlikely that they will stop going to their favorite restaurants to dine at a
new restaurant that serves only seafood. Therefore, the new restaurant will have
to compete with the other restaurants that are already popular in Bay City and
which offer other dishes in addition to seafood dishes. The new restaurant may
not be able to make profit unless it is able to build up a sizeable clientage, which
seems unlikely in view of the above mentioned aspects related to dining in Bay
City restaurants.
The arguer fails to provide substantial evidence to prove the relevance of the
nationwide survey in the context of the two-income families residing in Bay City.
There is no mention of the percentage of Bay City families who were a part of this
survey. It is likely that the survey included families residing in big cities and
metros and the type of lifestyle that they follow permits them to eat out
regularly. It is quite possible that the families in Bay City are not too keen on
eating out as opposed to their counterparts in bigger cities. Moreover, if the
families are health conscious, then they would not like to eat in a new restaurant
as they would doubt the quality of food being served and they would rather eat at
the restaurants where they have been dining in the past. Therefore, the arguer
fails to provide a link between the nationwide survey and the dining habits of the
two-income families of Bay City in order to substantiate his recommendation.
The argument could have been strengthened if both the surveys had provided
information related to the willingness of the Bay City residents to eat seafood.
Moreover, the profits earned by a restaurant depend on the initial investments
along with the expenses incurred in the maintenance of the restaurant. The
arguer does not provide information related to such data. Therefore, the
argument fails to convince the reader that a new Bay City restaurant specializing
in seafood will be profitable and popular.
………………………………

The following appeared in a memo from the president of Viva-Tech, a
manufacturer of high-tech medical equipment.
"In order to reduce costs, we should close some of our existing small assembly
plants and build a large central plant. Grandview would be an ideal location for
this new plant. First, of all the locations that we have considered, Grandview has
the largest adult population, so that we will be able to staff our plant quickly and
easily. Secondly, since the average wages earned by workers in Grandview is less
than that in the other locations, we should be able to keep production costs low.
Last, as an inducement for us to build there, Grandview's town council has offered
to allow us to operate for the first three years without paying city taxes."
The president of Viva-Tech recommends that they can reduce their costs by
closing some of their small assembly plants and establishing a large central plant
in Grandview. The arguer supports his recommendation with the help of three
assumptions in a bid to prove that this venture would be a profitable one for Viva-
Tech. The first assumption is that the company will be able to find suitable
workers for its new plant as Grandview has the highest adult population among
all the suitable locations considered by the company for building its central plant.
The second assumption is that they will be able to keep their production costs low
as the average wages earned by the workers in Grandview is quite low. The third
assumption is that the company will benefit from the exemption from paying city
taxes for the next three years. In several respects, however, the evidence
provided lends little credible support for the argument.
Firstly, the fact that Grandview boasts of a higher adult population than the other
locations provides scant evidence for proving that Viva-Tech will be able to hire
workers quickly. The arguer makes no mention of the demographic statistics of
the population of Grandview. It is likely that the adult population consists more of
old people or retired people who are no longer interested in working. One cannot
ignore the fact that the adult population would already be employed somewhere
for earning their daily bread and it is highly unlikely that they will leave their
present jobs to work with Viva-Tech. Moreover, it is likely that the company may
not be able to find workers skilled enough for the type of work required in the
plant. As the company is a manufacturer of hi-tech medical equipment, there is a
requirement of hiring workers who are specifically trained and adequately skilled
for the required work. Therefore, without considering all these aspects, the
arguer makes an unfair assumption that the large adult population of Grandview
would be able to provide workers for Viva-Tech easily and quickly.
Secondly, if the average wages earned by the workers in Grandview are low, it is
not necessary that they would work for Viva-Tech for the same wages. It is
possible that there are no major industries in Grandview and the current jobs do
not demand specific skills and so the workers get low wages. As Viva-Tech needs
to employ labor skilled in assembling medical equipments, the workers being
hired may demand wages higher than the average wages in Grandview.
Moreover, even if the company hires unskilled labor at low costs, they will have to
spend a huge amount of time and money in training the unskilled labor for
handling the job requirements. Therefore, the second assumption does nothing to
prove that labor costs would be reduced if the central plant is built in Grandview.
Thirdly, the arguer has not considered the taxes that will have to be paid after the
initial three years are over. It is likely that the Grandview town council will levy
heavy taxes after three years. There may be other locations and towns which
would offer exemption from city taxes for more than three years. Therefore, as
far as the payment of city taxes is concerned, it is likely that there may be other
locations which would be beneficial for Viva-Tech in the long run. Considering
these and other possible aspects, the arguer cannot rely on the fact that the town
council has exempted Viva-Tech from paying taxes for the first three years to
bolster his recommendation.
The argument could have been strengthened by providing evidence that proved
that Grandview would be able to provide a high number of skilled workers who
are willing to work for low wages. Moreover, there is a requirement of a
comparative analysis between the taxes being levied by Grandview and those by
other locations. In sum, it can be stated that the recommendation is highly
fallacious, at least without additional evidence to support it.
…………………………..

The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and
resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new
businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30
percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional
tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean
View."
The mayor of Hopewell utilizes this memo to recommend that building a golf
course and resort hotel is the best possible way for improving Hopewell's
economy. He supports this recommendation by citing the example of the town of
Ocean View which had built a golf course and resort hotel two years ago. Since
then, Ocean View has seen an increase in tourism and establishment of new
businesses in addition to generation of added tax revenues. The argument is
unconvincing in several respects as the arguer fails to establish a direct link
between the economies of the two towns which are being compared.
Let us first take a look at the economic progress made by the town of Ocean View
as outlined by the arguer. The argument makes no mention of the status of the
economy of Ocean View prior to the establishment of the golf course and the
resort hotel. It is quite possible that Ocean View was already on the path to
progress much before the golf course and resort hotel were built. Moreover, the
arguer has failed to provide information related to tourism in Ocean View. It is
likely that Ocean View boasts of numerous tourist spots and beautiful locales.
Additionally, the weather in Ocean View may be pleasant throughout the year. It
is likely that Ocean View has invested time, effort and money in an extensive
publicity campaign for its tourism department. One cannot ignore the fact that
Ocean View may be having many other resorts and hotels and so there is no
dearth of accommodation for tourists at any time of the year.
All the above mentioned factors would significantly contribute to the fact that the
town of Ocean View is experiencing an increase in tourism and establishment of
new businesses. It is quite possible that these factors were in force much before
the construction of the new golf course and resort hotel. It is likely that the new
businesses that are opening in Ocean View are not linked to the golf course or the
resort hotel in any way whatsoever. Therefore, the assumption that the tourism
and economy of the town of Ocean View has benefited only from the
construction of the new golf course and resort hotel is completely unwarranted.
As the reason for the improved economy in Ocean View is questionable, linking
this improvement to establishing a similar golf course and resort hotel in
Hopewell for improving its economy is highly unjustified.
The arguer has ignored the fact that the commercialization of a tourist location
may result in diminished tourism as the place will lose its idyllic charm. Therefore,
it is quite possible that the establishment of these new businesses may actually
bring down the town's economy in the long run. Moreover, the arguer does not
address any other reasons, like an increase in tax rates, for the increase in tax
revenues in Ocean View.
Another major lacuna in the argument is that if indeed the establishment of the
golf course and resort hotel is solely responsible for the economic progress of
Ocean View, it is not necessary that following in the footsteps of Ocean View
would generate the same results for Hopewell also. It is likely that the town of
Hopewell neither has the financial support nor the space for the establishment of
a golf course and resort hotel. There may be other geographical and
demographical differences between these two towns and therefore, what proved
to be beneficial for Ocean View may not be the same for Hopewell too.
To bolster the recommendation, the argument should have included evidence

that proved the link between Ocean View's golf course, the resort hotel and
Ocean View's economic progress during the last two years. Moreover, there is a
requirement of evidence that proves that carrying out a similar action in Hopewell
will have the same results. In sum, the arguer's recommendation is inadequately
supported due to lack of concrete evidence.
…………………….

The following appeared in a memo from the chairperson of the school board in
the town of Saluda.
"For the past five years, Mr. Charles Schade has been the music director at Steel
City High School, and during that time the school band from Steel City High has
won three regional band competitions. In addition, the quality of the music
rehearsal facilities and musical instruments at Steel City High has improved
markedly over the past five years. Because of such successes at Steel City High,
the Saluda school board should hire Mr. Schade to plan and direct the general
music education programs for the entire Saluda school system."
The chairperson of Saluda's school board recommends that Mr. Charles Schade
should be hired for planning and directing music education for the entire school
system of Saluda. The chairperson supports his recommendation by claiming that
Mr. Charles Schade has been a successful music director at Steel City High School
for the past 5 years and the arguer provides two facts as evidence in support of
this claim. Firstly, the Steel City High School band has won three regional
competitions in the past five years. Secondly, it has been seen that there is an
immense improvement in the quality of music rehearsal facilities and musical
instruments at the Steel City High School in the past five years. Despite the
evidence provided, the argument is flawed in several respects and fails to
convince the reader that Mr. Charles Schade would be the best choice for
planning and directing the general music education programs for the entire
Saluda school system.
The arguer should have eliminated other possibilities which could have been
instrumental in leading to the school band's success in the regional competitions.
It is likely that the children who are a part of the school band are extremely
talented and they would have been able to win the competitions even if Mr.
Charles Schade was not their music director. On the other hand, it is possible that
the school band had been groomed by Mr. Charles Schade's predecessor and he is
the one who would be actually responsible for this success. This probability
increases due to the absence of a mention of the exact time period in which the
school band had won these competitions. If they had won them in the beginning
of Mr. Charles Schade's tenure, then it would mean that Mr. Charles Schade
probably contributed very little to their success. The absence of such evidence
also raises the doubt that the school band has probably not won any major
competitions during the latter part of Mr. Charles Schade's tenure which would
go against his capability and competence as a music director.
The marked improvement in the music rehearsal facilities and musical

instruments cannot be linked to Mr. Charles Schade alone. It is likely that these
improvements were made possible due to the sustained efforts of the school
administrative council or some other department of the school. Therefore, there
is a probability that someone else was responsible for initiating the release of
funds that resulted in the procurement of good quality musical instruments and
the provision of improved music rehearsal facilities. The argument should have
made a clear reference to the role that Mr. Charles Schade had played in
providing these enhanced facilities to the school. In the absence of such concrete
evidence, the second fact presented by the arguer does not substantiate his claim
related to the competence of Mr. Charles Schade.
Even if we assume that Mr. Charles Schade had indeed been successful as the
music director of the Steel City High School, it is not necessary that he is
competent enough to handle the music education program for the entire school
system of Saluda. This is because the latter assignment would demand skills that
could be different from those required for the music director of a high school. The
argument could have been substantiated to an extent if the arguer had provided
evidence that proved the competence of Mr. Charles Schade beyond doubt. In its
present form, the given argument is largely unconvincing due to lack of sufficient
evidence in support of the recommendation made.
………………………………………

The following appeared as part of a memo from the president of Automate, a
company that manufactures automobiles.
"It has come to my attention that Sparks, Inc., the manufacturing company that
just moved into our state, is advertising job openings at salaries that are twice as
high as those paid to our experienced assembly-line workers. Some of our
employees have already left to work for Sparks. In order to keep our best staff,
we must pay them salaries equal to those Sparks pays its employees. Otherwise
we will continue to lose employees in the future, because Sparks must staff the
additional new plants that it plans to build in the state."
The president of Automate, an automobile manufacturing company, recommends

a hike in the pay scales of its employees in order to prevent them from leaving
Automate and joining Sparks, Inc., which has just moved into their state. The
president argues that Sparks has advertised for jobs at salaries that are twice as
high as those paid to the experienced assembly-line workers at Automate.
Therefore, he recommends that the salaries of its employees will have to be
increased or else Automate would lose its best employees to Sparks. The arguer
supports his recommendation by stating that Sparks needs to staff its new plants
that it plans to establish in the state and therefore, there is an increased threat of
Automate's employees tendering their resignations. All the facts presented by the
arguer do little to substantiate the argument as the arguer fails to prove that an
increase in the salaries is an inevitable requirement.
The arguer has not clearly mentioned the nature of the jobs for which Sparks is
offering a salary that is higher than what Automate pays to its assembly-line
workers. It is likely that the jobs being advertised by Sparks require a different
level of skills as compared to that required for assembly-line workers. This would
explain the difference in salaries. Moreover, the argument does not mention the
type of manufacturing being carried out by Sparks. Automate is an automobile
manufacturing company and it is likely that Sparks manufactures some other
types of automobiles that require more expertise. Therefore, even if the jobs
being advertised by Sparks are for its assembly-line workers, the higher salaries
offered by Sparks cannot be compared with those offered by Automate to its
assembly-line workers.
The arguer does not address other reasons that may have been instrumental in
leading to the defection of the workers of Automate to Sparks. It is likely that
Sparks offers some incentives other than the high salary. For instance, it is likely
that Sparks caters for a retirement plan or provides accommodation to its
employees. Therefore, these incentives prompt the workers to join Sparks and it
is highly possible that a high salary does not influence the workers at all.
Therefore, a hike in the salaries of the workers at Automate may not be able to
stop them from joining Sparks because of the other incentives being offered by
Sparks.
There is no mention of the kinds of employees who have left Automate to work
for Sparks. Additionally, the argument does not mention the number of workers
who have defected to Sparks. In the absence of such evidence, it would be unfair
to assume that Automate is losing its best employees to Sparks. It is likely that it is
only a small percentage of new workers who have decided to switch jobs and the
more experienced and skilled workers are still loyal to Automate. Moreover, it is
likely that Sparks has increased the salary just for the recruitment process and the
salaries might be reduced once the plants are functional.
Lastly, the fact that Sparks plans to build additional new plants in the state
provides scant evidence in support of the recommendation made. It is likely that
Sparks plans to staff its new plants by withdrawing its experienced workers from
its other plants. Also, it is likely that it is just a rumor and Sparks has no intentions
of setting up additional plants.
The argument could have been substantiated to an extent if the arguer had
provided a direct link between the defection of workers from Automate to Sparks
and the high salaries being offered by Sparks. Moreover, there is a need to prove
that Sparks intends to staff its new plants from the workers who are currently
employed by Automate. Therefore, increasing the salaries of all the employees of
Automate to stop them from defecting would be a hasty decision as the arguer
has failed to convince the reader that this step is necessary to hold back its
employees.
…………………………………..

The following is a memo from the superintendent of the Mylar school district.
"A recent six-month study, in which breakfast was made available at school for
100 schoolchildren ages five to twelve, found that children on the breakfast plan
were less likely than other children to be absent from or late for school. Clearly,
eating breakfast before school plays a role in reducing student absenteeism and
tardiness. It is also well known that children who regularly eat a healthful
breakfast tend to perform better in school. Therefore, in order to reduce
absenteeism and tardiness and to improve academic performance in all of Mylar's
elementary and secondary schools, we should provide breakfasts for all students
before each school day."
The superintendent of the Mylar school district recommends that breakfast

should be provided to students in all schools in order to reduce absenteeism and
tardiness as well as improve the overall academic performance of the students.
The superintendent supports his recommendation by citing the results of a recent
six-month study on 100 students in the age group of 5 to 12 years. The results
have shown that students who were provided breakfasts at school were less likely
to be absent or tardy as compared to the other students. Furthermore, the
superintendent supports his recommendation by utilizing the fact that regularly
eating healthy breakfasts improves academic performance. Nevertheless, a close
scrutiny of the argument reveals many fallacies that render the argument
unconvincing.
The argument relies heavily on the results of the six-month study, which in itself is
questionable. Firstly, since the study was conducted only on 100 students, it
would be unfair to assume that the results of this study would hold true for all the
school students in the district because of the different family backgrounds and
attitude of the students across the district. It is possible that these 100 students
were from poor families and the prospect of getting breakfasts at school made
them reach school well in time. On the other hand, it is likely that the students
who were a part of this study were disciplined students who were tardy and
regular before the study as well. Therefore, providing them with breakfast would
not have changed their tardiness and absenteeism at all. The results of the study
could have been substantiated to an extent if the arguer had included information
about the students' behaviors prior to the conduct of the study. A comparison
between their behaviors when they were not provided breakfasts at school with
those after they were regularly eating daily breakfasts could have made the
results of the study convincing enough.
The arguer mentions that the study was carried out on students in the age group
of 5 to 12 years, but he does not provide the breakdown of the students with
respect to their ages. It is likely that a majority of the students participating in the
study were less than 8 years of age who have not yet formed their likes and
dislikes with respect to the food being eaten. Older children may object to certain
types of food and they may be more selective in eating what is being served.
Therefore, it is likely that the older students in the study did not even eat what
was being served to them, thereby rendering the results unsuitable for effective
implementation across the district.
The arguer assumes that all the schools would provide healthy breakfasts to the
students leading to improved academic performance. However, the argument
makes no reference to the steps that have been taken to ensure that the school
children will be served healthy breakfast. Hence, the fact that children who
regularly eat a healthful breakfast tend to perform better in school, lends no
support to the recommendation made by the arguer.
The argument could have been rendered convincing to an extent if the arguer had
provided evidence which proved that the 100 students who participated in the
study actually attended school regularly and were punctual because of the
breakfasts that were provided to them. Additionally, there is a requirement of
proving that the students will be provided healthy breakfasts so that they are
actually able to do well academically. In conclusion, the recommendation made is
specious in view of the inadequate evidence provided in its support.
……………………………..

When Ida McAllister ran for mayor of Lake City four years ago, she failed to win
even 30 percent of the vote. But since then, McAllister has made public her
commitment to environmental causes. She would be wise, therefore, to
announce her intention to close all Lake City parks to automobile traffic, thus
following the example of the former mayor of Plainsville, Alecia Yu. On the
recommendation of a small group of concerned citizens, Mayor Yu prohibited
automobile traffic in all Plainsville parks, and therefore was credited with solving
the pollution problem and improving the quality of life in Plainsville. This action
would have great appeal to the citizens of Lake City, most of whom participate in
the community's recycling program, and would guarantee McAllister's success in
her current quest to be Lake City's new mayor.
The given argument concludes that it would be a wise decision for Ida McAllister
to announce her decision to prohibit automobile traffic to all Lake City parks in
accordance with her commitment to environmental causes. The arguer concedes
that this action would ensure that Ida McAllister wins the forthcoming elections
to the mayor of Lake City despite the fact that she had lost by a huge margin
during the elections for the same post four years ago. The arguer cites the
example of the former mayor of Plainsville, Alecia Yu, who had implemented
similar restrictions in Plainsville as a result of which she had earned appreciation
for solving pollution problems and improving the lifestyles of the people of
Plainsville. The arguer further states that the people of Lake City would find this
action appealing as most of them participate in the community's recycling
program as well. However, the argument is found to be lacking in several respects
and it fails to convince the reader that the action being suggested by the arguer
would indeed be a wise one for Ida McAllister.
The arguer completely sidelines other factors which might influence the votes of
the citizens of Lake City. It is likely that environmental factors come last in the
priority list of the citizens when it comes to voting for a suitable mayor for their
town. There is a possibility that the citizens of Lake View are looking for a mayor
who can provide economic reforms, create employment, improve the educational
system in the city, facilitate construction of badly needed civic amenities etc.
Therefore, it is unlikely that they will vote for a mayor whose main agenda is
environmental issues.
On the contrary, it is highly possible that the action suggested by the arguer might
boomerang and result in loss of votes for Ida McAllister. This is because Plainsville
and Lake City are two cities which differ in their geographical and demographical
make up. It is likely that the parks in Plainsville are built in a smaller area as
compared to the ones in Lake City. Therefore, the automobiles driving into the
Plainsville parks created traffic issues and parking problems. Hence, the decision
to ban the automobiles in the parks was widely appreciated by the citizens of
Plainsville. The same cannot be said about the parks in Lake City in view of
inadequate information provided by the arguer. It is likely that the parks in Lake
City are far away from the city and they are drive-in parks. Suggesting the
restriction of movement of automobiles within the parks may lead to a public
outcry, thereby having an adverse effect which would be the opposite to what
was being speculated.
Additionally, it is likely that Lake City does not have any serious pollution
problems and so, the restriction of automobile movement in the parks will
probably not have similar effects as those observed in Plainsville. Moreover,
Alecia Yu was already in the chair of the mayor and therefore, such an action
cannot be assumed to have similar results for Ida McAllister as she is running for
the mayor. One cannot refute the fact that her competitors will do their level best
to highlight all the negative aspects of such an action in order to succeed in the
race to become the mayor of Lake City.
Lastly, the fact that most of the citizens of Lake City actively participate in the
community's recycling program does not necessarily mean that they all are
environmental enthusiasts who are concerned about pollution related problems.
It is likely that they are interested in recycling due to some monetary benefits that
may be involved in the recycling program.
In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. The argument could have

been strengthened by providing evidence that proved that Lake City is plagued by
pollution problems and that the citizens of Lake City will largely benefit from the
action that has been recommended, thereby affecting the vote bank of Ida
McAllister in the run for the town's mayor. Moreover, there is a need to discuss
and eliminate the factors, other than environmental causes, that will determine
what the people are looking for in their mayor.

From a draft textbook manuscript submitted to a publisher.
"As Earth was being formed out of the collision of space rocks, the heat from
those collisions and from the increasing gravitational energy of the planet made
the entire planet molten, even the surface. Any water present would have
evaporated and gone off into space. As the planet approached its current size,
however, its gravitation became strong enough to hold gases and water vapor
around it as an atmosphere. Because comets are largely ice made up of frozen
water and gases, a comet striking Earth then would have vaporized. The resulting
water vapor would have been retained in the atmosphere, eventually falling as
rain on the cooled and solidified surface of Earth. Therefore, the water in Earth's
oceans must have originated from comets."
The writer of the given argument suggests that the water present in oceans on
the Earth's surface has originated from comets. As Earth came into existence, its
surface was very hot. Any comet, which was made up of ice and gases, would get
evaporated into the space as soon as it hit the Earth's surface. However, Earth
developed its gravitational energy and water started retaining in its atmosphere.
This water eventually rained over its surface when Earth cooled off forming the
oceans present today. This seems to be a well-developed theory of the formation
of oceans on Earth's surface. However, when the argument is analyzed closely, it
exposes the shortcomings that it has not been able to explain.
First of all, it would be inappropriate to consider that there was no possibility at

all of water being present on Earth's surface when it was formed. While it might
be true that Earth was in a molten state and was very hot, it is possible that there
were many parts of the Earth's surface where the temperature was not too high.
For water to get evaporated it requires that the temperature of the Earth's
surface be high. However, in parts of Earth where the surface temperature is
lower than that, water would not get evaporated and would remain in liquid
form. Therefore, we cannot ignore the possibility of existence of traces of water
on the Earth's surface from the time of its formation.
The argument further suggests that when atmosphere developed around the
surface of Earth, it started retaining water vapor and gases. At that time when a
comet hit its surface, its water would get evaporated into the atmosphere.
However, this might not be true. Firstly, since atmosphere was just being formed
gradually and Earth was developing its gravitational pull, it is possible that all
these objects were not retained in its atmosphere. The impact of such a collision
is very high and with the force that is created it is possible that pieces of ice and
water vapor after the collision get thrown back into the space and the
atmosphere is not capable to hold them. Secondly, it is possible that Earth had
begun to cool off slowly. Hence, when it developed an atmosphere around itself,
any comet that hit its surface would not get evaporated. Therefore, the broken
pieces and leftovers of the comet would remain in that state or just melt on the
surface of Earth, without getting evaporated. Therefore, there are possibilities
other than those mentioned in the argument, which it pays no attention to.
While it is possible that the water present in the atmosphere came down as rain
and added to the amount of water present on the Earth's surface, it is far from
one's imagination that the oceans came into existence only due to this rain.
Oceans are large water bodies covering 3/4th of the earth's surface. Rainwater
does add to this by flowing into the oceans but the fact that only rainwater
contributed to the formation of oceans is not comprehendible. There could have
been other ways of this water being collected on the surface of the earth. As
discussed above, it is possible that water already existed on Earth. It is possible
that when Earth cooled off to form the solid crust, water was formed due to some
form of condensation. There could be some precipitation other than rain on a
large scale that resulted in water on Earth. There could be other heavenly objects
colliding with Earth like meteorites etc. that could have eventually added water to
the Earth's surface.
Hence, it can be seen that the argument is not completely convincing. It falls short
of explanation in certain situations as discussed above, which makes it
inappropriate and faulty.
……………………………….

The following appeared in a medical newsletter.
"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients
from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been
proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group
of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who
specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their
treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than
typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a
general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they
were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly
reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be
well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment. "
The argument given above seems to be convincing and believable at the first
instance because of the way it is presented. According to it, all patients suffering
from muscle strain should be given antibiotics since it was found in a study that
those who are treated with antibiotics show quick recovery. On the other hand,
those given sugar pills in the name of antibiotics did not recover any faster.
Therefore, antibiotics should be taken to avoid secondary infections and recover
faster from a muscle strain. However, there are certain points that go against the
given argument. The argument does not hold its convincing power when viewed
in a fresh light as is done in the following discussion.
The introductory line of the argument says that doctors have long suspected that
secondary infections keep some patients from healing quickly after muscle strain.
This means that not all patients of muscle strain get infected with secondary
infections. However, in the conclusion given in the argument it is said that all
patients suffering from muscle strain should be given antibiotics. It can be
understood that there is no need of antibiotics in many cases. Giving antibiotics to
all is only adding to the number of medicines they take. Therefore, all patients
need not be advised to take antibiotics.
The argument further confirms the hypothesis with a study conducted on two
groups of patients. However, it is mentioned in the argument that only the
preliminary results of study showed the given findings. It can be commented that
the study conducted was not a detailed one. Before making any medicine fit for
prescription, it should be tested and retested for its effects. Only if the findings of
such a study are repeatedly seen to be the same can any medicine be considered
fit to be given to patients. It is immature to rely on only preliminary results and
take them as a proof of a long held hypothesis.
The argument ignores the possibility of any side effects of antibiotics on the
patients. It is possible that the antibiotics administered in case of muscle strain
cause some kind of side effects that might be harmful for the patients. This should
be particularly taken care of in case of sportsmen. The argument mentions that
Dr. Newland is a specialist in sports medicines but it does not say anything about
the effects of antibiotics on sportsmen. It is very important to keep a check on the
intake of drugs by sportsmen in order to comply with the rules and regulations of
sporting events. If any antibiotic proves to be a banned substance for sportsmen,
it can bar them from playing in the events and can even ruin their future. While
muscle strains are most common with sportsmen, the argument is silent about
this category of patients.
There are many patients who are sensitive to medicines. If the medicines given to
them are increased in number, it becomes increasingly difficult for them take
these. A doctor must prescribe a medicine only if it suits the patients. However, it
is possible that antibiotics do not suit many patients. It can further be said that
there is a difference in the severity of muscle strain experienced by every patient.
The medication of each muscle strain should, therefore, be according to the
condition of the patient. The treatment of a sever muscle strain is different from
that of a mild strain. A mild muscle strain may not require a lot of treatment and
medicines. Therefore, antibiotics can be avoided in such cases and it can be
concluded that antibiotics are not required to be given to every patient in order
to treat a muscle strain.
Clearly, these loopholes exist in the argument and they completely shatter the
stand taken in the argument. Instead, the discussion given above should be kept
in mind and a comprehensive study should be conducted before making any
conclusion.
…………………………..

The following appeared in a memo to the human resources manager at Baobob
Inc., a large architectural firm.
"Several well-known, retired architects were interviewed in Architecture Today

about changes in the field. Only one had earned a college degree in architecture.
All others had come into the field at an early age by serving apprenticeships that
required them to work under the direct supervision of an experienced architect.
Several of the colleges that we recruit from report that many promising
architecture students leave school early in their undergraduate career. Therefore,
because finding talented architecture graduates is becoming more difficult,
Baobob Inc. should start an aggressive apprenticeship program and hire students
who express an interest in architecture directly out of high school rather than
wait for them to get out of college."
In the argument presented in the memo, it is suggested that Baobob Inc. should
hire students who are interested in architecture without waiting for them to
complete their qualification in college. This suggestion is based on the interview
of several retired architects out of which most had not attended colleges.
Moreover, colleges also report that many promising architecture students leave
their studies before completing their degree. However, the arguer seems to jump
to conclusions without giving a thought to the findings. There can be other
interpretations of this argument as are discussed below, which can prove contrary
to the suggestion made in it.
Firstly, the interview was conducted on retired architects out of whom only one
had earned a college degree. However, there is no proof that these architects
represent all the well-known and progressive architects. It is not known exactly
how many architects were interviewed by Architecture Today. If, out of the
number of architects interviewed, only one had got a college degree, it does not
depict that most of them were high school dropouts. This is because we do not
know if the number of architects interviewed were significantly more, or just
about a bunch of them were actually interviewed. Moreover, it is possible that
there are other architects present who were not interviewed but have done
extremely well in their field and also possess college degrees. The architects
interviewed, therefore, may or may not represent all the architects who have
been successful.
Since the interview was conducted on retired architects, it can be understood that
they had gone to high school long back. Since then, there must have been many
changes and introductions in the architectural studies. There could be very few
colleges offering courses in architecture in the past. Hence, many students would
have preferred to work under an expert architect in order to learn the tricks of
the trade. However, today there are many colleges offering courses in
architecture. While in the past students could have been deprived of the
opportunity of joining an architectural college, it is not the case today. With a
number of colleges mushrooming everywhere, there is ample opportunity
provided to aspiring architects to join one of them and get a professional degree.
The argument ignores the difference in the times as well as opportunities
available and simply concludes that since most of the successful architects had
not got a college degree, it is best to hire students interested in architecture.
Further, in the argument it is mentioned that many colleges report that many
promising students leave architectural studies before completing their degree.
This report may be given by only selected colleges. It is possible that many other
colleges do not have students dropping out of their courses, but the report from
these colleges was not taken. Moreover, it is possible that even if the students
were capable and promising they were not interested in pursing a career in
architecture. Hence, if they have left school in their undergraduate class it does
not mean that they have done so to work under an expert of the same field.
The arguer seems to underestimate the value of professional qualification in

saying that Baobob Inc should hire students interested in architecture directly
rather than wait for them to complete their courses. A course in architecture
gives the students enough knowledge that they would require in their career. It
sets the basis of their career and gives them confidence to work. While
experience is importance, it is important to have an understanding of the work,
which is possible only if a student earns a proper degree for the same.
The argument surely ignores these possibilities and is based on meager evidence.
It dos not provide explanations for many of the points mentioned above and thus
the suggestion made in it can be discarded as inappropriate.

Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of
mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a
tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were
more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time
when their mothers' production of melatonin - a hormone known to affect some
brain functions - would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a
follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children -
now teenagers - who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy.
Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy
and this shyness continues into later life.
In the given argument, the arguer is convinced that an increased level of

melatonin before the birth of a child results in developing a shy behavior in the
child's infancy as well as in later life. He concludes this by giving an account of a
study conducted on 25 children for their response to unfamiliar stimuli. Their
response was related to their mothers' increase in production of hormone called
melatonin at the time of their pregnancy. The arguer may have presented a
convincing argument from his side, but it becomes clear from a detailed analysis
of his statement that it lacks logic and sense of judgment. The following
discussion exposes this lack of judgment in the composition of the argument and
makes the argument incapable of sustaining its convincing power.
The study, as is mentioned in the argument, was conducted on 25 infants. It says

that they showed mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar voice and odor.
However, this is a normal reaction of infants to unfamiliar stimuli. An infant can
recognize only the voice of his family members. If he comes in contact with a
stranger, he will feel uncomfortable. In fact, an infant's heartbeat rises whenever
he is in unfamiliar hands since he feels most secure with his own family. Similarly,
his sense of smell is a way of recognizing familiar things. He is comfortable with
the odor he is used to. On the other hand, he takes time to adjust to any new
odor. Until then he will exhibit a discomfort with it. However, the arguer tries to
find a conclusion on the basis of this response given by infants, which can be
called an absolutely normal behavior.
Moreover, the argument can be criticized for forming conclusions based on a
study with limited subjects of only 25 infants. It is inappropriate to apply the
result of the study on every infant because a detailed study has not been
conducted. Its being conducted thirteen years ago also brings it under scrutiny
since the findings of a recent study might differ from the old one.
There isn't enough evidence provided by the author that these infants have been
conceived in early autumn. It is said so since the hormone melatonin was
produced increasingly with decreased daylight. Where daylight only begins to
decrease in autumn, the days are shortest in winters. Therefore, daylight is
minimum in winters and the production of melatonin should be even more than
that in autumn. Accordingly, the infants are likely to have been conceived in
winters as well. Hence, the argument needs to provide more evidence and
reasoning for making it more convincing and reliable.
The follow-up study conducted shows that more than half of the 25 children
tested showed signs of distress and identified themselves as shy in their teenage.
However, since all children did not identify themselves as shy it cannot be said
whether all the infants who showed signs of distress in infancy have developed a
shy nature. Moreover, the results of the follow-up conducted are questionable
since they are based on self-analysis by children. It is not based on any
observation or response given by children. It is likely that some of the children are
undergoing a phase where they feel distressed and this is not a normal behavior.
Therefore, under the influence of their circumstances they might have termed
themselves as shy.
There are many factors that affect the nature of a child. The nature and behavior
of a child changes according to his experiences and the exposure he gets as he
grows up. Children who are shy in their childhood might overcome this nature
and become extroverts in their later lives. On the other hand, due to some
circumstances and situations, a child might become shy and timid as he grows up.
The effect of the hormone melatonin may not be the reason behind such
behavior in the later life of a child. However, the argument only considers the
effect of the hormone on the nature of a child and ignores other factors that are
responsible for the same.
With such a detailed analysis of the argument, it becomes transparent and the
loopholes and shortcoming in the argument become clear. The arguer should
therefore consider the discussion given above and amend his statement
accordingly.
……………………………………..

The following appeared in a newsletter on dental health.
"A recent research study reported the experience of dentists whose patients had,
over a period of five years, regularly used Flux Dental Floss as part of their dental
hygiene routine. The report indicates that these dentists had 50 percent fewer
cases of gum disease than did dentists whose patients did not use Flux regularly.
In addition, most of the Flux users who were surveyed by their dentists agreed
that Flux's mint flavor would encourage people to floss more often. Thus, even
though Flux may cost more than other brands of floss, it is clearly a worthwhile
investment for those who want to be assured of healthy teeth and gums."
The given argument promotes the use of Flux Dental Floss and gives reasons to
support it. According to it, the dentists whose patients regularly used Flux had
fewer cases of gum disease than patients of other dentists did. Moreover, it is
mentioned that its mint flavor would encourage people to floss more often and
despite its high cost people would invest in it for healthy teeth and gums.
However, this argument can be criticized for its one-sided approach. The arguer
seems to support Flux Dental Floss without giving enough evidence for the same.
First of all, the report of the research study reported that the dentists whose
patients used Flux had fewer cases of gum disease than other dentists whose
patients did not use it. However, this does not provide enough proof of the
product's effectiveness as compared to other dental flosses. Firstly, it is not
known if people who are not using Flux are actually using another brand or not. If
people were not using any dental floss, they would surely have more gum
diseases than those who used it regularly. Secondly, there is no way by which it
can be determined if the dentists examined in the study represented all the
dentists. It is likely that the research was conducted on very few dentists. In that
case, the dentists who have not been consulted in the study might have different
opinions about Flux and its effectiveness.
Further, the argument says that Flux users agree that its mint flavor would
encourage users to floss more often. This is, however, an inconsistent statement
since the argument does not give enough evidence to prove that mint flavor is
liked by people. It is possible that many users do not prefer mint-flavored floss
due to their personal likings. It is also possible that there are other brands of floss
that also offer floss with mint flavor. In that case the argument does not suggest
how Flux would be a better choice for customers. Moreover, a fair comparison
between Flux and other brands can be made only if Flux users have used other
dental flosses. However, the argument does not give any detail regarding these
things. Therefore, based on this statement a conclusion about using Flux instead
of any other brand cannot be made.
There are many other brands that offer dental floss in the market. People have a
choice from which they can select. As discussed above, it is not evident from the
details given in the argument that people will choose Flux over other flosses. Flux
is unreasonably mentioned as a worthwhile commodity even at a high cost.
Considering the choice available in the market, the customers will prefer the
product that is not only good but also easy on their pocket. If there are other
brands of floss that are effective and are available at a cheaper price than Flux,
then people will prefer to buy the cheaper brand.
Dental hygiene is a matter of good dental habits. According to the argument, Flux
is the best option for those who want to assure healthy teeth and gums.
However, this is not the only option. It is surely not possible that those who do
not use Flux cannot maintain a good dental hygiene. People can use other dental
flosses and keep their gums and teeth healthy and free from diseases. The
argument fails to explain why people should prefer Flux to other brands. It can,
therefore, be seen that the argument lacks evidence and reasons to promote Flux
Dental Floss. Flux is supported by the argument very imperceptibly and therefore
the argument can be discarded as weak and ineffective to convey its stand.
…………………………………..

The following appeared in a Letter to the Editor of the Shady Village newspaper.
"Commuters are complaining that the rush hour traffic on Blue Highway between
Shady Village and Bright City has doubled their commuting time. Some
commuters have asked that an additional traffic lane be built, but the recent
creation of such a lane on nearby Green Highway apparently attracted more
commuters, judging from the fact that rush-hour traffic jams actually increased
there this past winter. To reduce rush-hour traffic on Blue Highway, a bicycle lane
should be added instead of a traffic lane. This approach will succeed because
many citizens of Shady Village are avid bicyclists; 75 percent of respondents to a
recent questionnaire distributed there said they would like to bicycle more hours
per week than they currently do."
The writer of the letter to the editor suggests that in order to reduce the
commuting time on Blue Highway a bicycle lane should be added instead of
another traffic lane. This will help, according to him, because many citizens of
Shady Village are keen on bicycling. Moreover, in response to a questionnaire,
most of the citizens confirmed that they would like to bicycle more than they do.
However, the writer is not able to give a convincing reason for his suggestion.
There are many other factors, which need to be considered before taking the
decision which point towards a different direction than that suggested by the
writer.
The traffic on a highway depends upon the places it connects as well as the
convenience it offers. The rush of two different highways cannot be compared
since both the highways offer connectivity to different places. The writer says that
adding an additional traffic lane on Green Highway increased the traffic on it in
the past winters. However, this may not be the case with Blue Highway. Firstly,
the traffic experienced by both the highways is different. Therefore, the rush hour
traffic on both highways should be treated independently. Adding another traffic
lane is one of the good options for solving the problem of too much traffic on the
highway and it should definitely be considered. Secondly, increased traffic on
Green Highway has been observed only in the past winters. It is likely that this is a
temporary change and is due to closure of another highway for some time. There
could be some repair work in progress on another route, which has diverted the
traffic to Green Highway. It is also likely that in winters other routes become
inaccessible due to snow and other such difficulties, due to which the traffic on
Green Highway had increase in the last winters. However, Blue Highway may not
experience any additional increase in traffic due to an additional traffic lane being
built. It is possible that no other routes are closed to divert the traffic towards
Blue Highway. Hence, unlike Green Highway the additional traffic lane might
prove useful in reducing the rush hour traffic.
Considering that Blue Highway connects the suburbs of Shady Village and Bright
City, the traffic on the highway would consist of two-wheelers as well as four-
wheelers. The possibility of people using bicycle for commuting through a
highway are very bleak. Making a separate bicycle lane would help only if there
are too many bicyclists on Blue Highway. However, the argument does not give an
idea of the type of traffic that Blue Highway experiences. If there were very few
bicyclists commuting through the highway, making a separate bicycle lane would
not solve the problem of rush hour traffic. Therefore, before coming to any
decision, the composition of traffic on Blue Highway should be studied and
accordingly an additional lane should be built.
There is a difference between what people like and what they do. People in Shady
Village may be fond of bicycling, however, how often they actually commute using
bicycle is the question. It is possible that even if people are enthusiastic about
bicycling and they would like to bicycle more hours per week than they currently
do, they are not able to do so due to the requirements of their jobs. Bicycles can
be used only for short distances. Moreover, it needs time to commute through
bicycles, however, if people cannot spare enough time, they will commute
through other vehicles. Therefore, forming an additional bicycle lane might be a
wrong decision since the circumstances of people might not allow them to use
bicycles on Blue Highway, even if they are avid bicyclists.
It is clear by now that the argument is not perceived in the correct light.
Therefore, the suggestion it forwards is not practical and a detailed study of the
traffic and situation of Blue Highway should be considered before coming to any
conclusion.
………………………………..

Collectors prize the ancient life-size clay statues of human figures made on Kali
Island but have long wondered how the Kalinese artists were able to depict
bodies with such realistic precision. Since archeologists have recently discovered
molds of human heads and hands on Kali, we can now conclude that the ancient
Kalinese artists used molds of actual bodies, not sculpting tools and techniques, to
create these statues. This discovery explains why Kalinese miniature statues were
abstract and entirely different in style: molds could only be used for life-size
sculptures. It also explains why few ancient Kalinese sculpting tools have been
found. In light of this development, collectors should expect the life-size
sculptures to decrease in value and the miniatures to increase in value.
With the discovery of molds on Kali Islands in the argument given above, the
writer concludes that Kalinese artists used molds of human body parts, and not
tools and techniques to create the life-size statues of human figures. As against
molds, very few tools have been discovered from the place. The writer also gives
the same reason for miniature statues being abstract and different from these
life-size statues. That is why, according to him, the value of miniatures should
increase while that of life-size sculptures should decrease. However, there are
certain flaws in this argument that could change the view that the writer holds.
The writer says that the discovery of molds of heads and hands on Kali concludes
that the ancient Kalinese artists used molds to create the statues instead of tools
and techniques. However, this discovery does not provide enough evidence to
come to the conclusion since there could be other interpretations as well. The
writer ignores the possibility that these molds could belong to an era later than
that of Kalinese artists. It is possible that while original life-size statues were made
by the Kalinese artists using tools and techniques, the artists who followed them
tried to reproduce the creations and made molds for the same. There is no clue of
the fact that these molds were actually used by Kalinese artists. Moreover, the
argument does not specify where these molds of the statues were found. It is
possible that they were found at a different location than where the Kali statues
were made. Since the number of Kali islands is not known, it is likely that there
were many islands and these molds were found at another island than where the
human statues were found. This would indicate that the Kalinese artists did not
use these molds to create the life-size human statues as is professed by the
argument.
The writer further says that since molds were used for creating these life-size
statues, it explains why the style used for miniature statues was different.
However, it can be argued that there are all possibilities that artists followed two
different styles to make statues at the same time. While they made life-size
statues with realistic precision, keeping in mind every detail, the miniature
statues could be just abstract shapes of human figures. The scope of depicting
details of human figure on a life-size structure are more than that on a miniature.
Another possibility is that the miniature statues were made by the decedents of
artists who made the life-sized human statues. Hence, the change in style could
be a modification of the old Kalinese style. Therefore, there could be many other
reasons for the miniature statues being abstract and different from life-size
statues.
It is mentioned in the argument that since molds were used to make life-size
structures, that is why very few Kalinese sculpting tools have been found. This
again is a biased approach of looking at the matter. There is a possibility that most
of these tools have been destroyed with the passage of time. It is also possible
that they have been washed away from the islands into the seawater. Moreover,
since archeologists have recently found molds, it is possible that most of the area
is still unexplored by them. Therefore, there could be tools that have not been
found by them. That would indicate that the Kalinese used more tools than those
that were found on the islands.
The value of a sculpture depends upon many factors. It is the beauty and
uniqueness of the statue that increases its value. If the Kalinese statues were
made in a unique style that gave them their beauty, these statues would be
priced high even if they were made by molds. The argument fails to explain why
the miniature statues should be valued more than the life-size statues. It can
therefore be said that the argument is embedded with flaws from the beginning
to the end and does not effectively support its conclusion.
………………………………….

The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.
"Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary

supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that
Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of
those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new
ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did
not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent
ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time
ulcers can be prevented as well."
The writer of the argument suggests that Zorba can prevent first-time ulcers and
are also effective to prevent recurrent ulcers. The writer concludes this by
following a study in which only 25 percent patients taking Zorba developed new
ulcers. However, the writer needs to be more specific to prove that Zorba
prevents first time ulcers. There are a number of flaws in the argument that make
the suggestion made in it inappropriate.
The argument becomes week due to the fact that it does not mention the number
of patients on which the study was conducted. It only mentions that only 25
percent of patients who took Zorba developed new ulcers. However, this can be a
misleading figure. Considering that the study was conducted on very few people,
the result will be insignificant since it is liable to variation if more patients are
studied. For example, if only 8 patients were studies, it means that 2 had
developed ulcers after taking Zorba. However, if the study was conducted on
more than 8 patients, it is possible that it shows a different result. Therefore,
unless it is confirmed that the study was conducted on a significantly large
number of people, its results cannot be considered true. Similarly, the exact
number of patients who did not take Zorba and have developed ulcers is not
known. Therefore, the statistics of 75 percent patients with recurring ulcers given
by the writer can again be taken as misleading.
There are many other factors that can have an effect on the recurrence of ulcers
amongst patients. However, the argument ignores other factors and focuses
solely on the intake of Zorba by its patients. Some patients could be more
sensitive to ulcers than others. Therefore, they might get ulcers despite
medication for the same. Moreover, the patients who had recurring ulcers could
probably not be taking any other preventions and the intake of some particular
food products could be the cause of their condition of ulcers. On the other hand,
those who had been taking Zorba could also be taking some other medication for
the same. Hence, it can be said that Zorba is not the only drug that has prevented
the recurrence of ulcers amongst these patients. Apart from this, there could be
other factors related to the condition of recurrence of ulcers. There could some
genetic disorder that causes recurrence of ulcers in a patient. In such a case, even
if a patient takes Zorba, it would not help in preventing the recurrence of ulcers.
Further, the writer says that Zorba can be highly effective to prevent first-time
ulcers. However, he does not support this stand with any proof. He does not
mention any study where the drug seemingly prevented first-time ulcers.
Therefore, he does not have enough evidence to substantiate his statement. It is
only if the writer could provide convincing evidence through a comprehensive
study conducted on a significantly large number of people that any conclusion
about Zorba's effect on first-time ulcers could be made.
As mentioned in the argument, Zorba is a multimineral pill designed as a dietary

supplement. Since it is not specifically designed to cure ulcers, it is not advised to
pop the pill for preventing ulcers. There could be a difference in the dosage of the
drug for curing ulcers. Moreover, the argument ignores the possibility of other
drugs being effective to cure ulcers. It is possible that there are other drugs that
are more effective than Zorba. Hence, there could be better options for patients
that would make them choose other drugs in place of Zorba.
Clearly, the argument provides insufficient evidence to promote Zorba as a drug

preventing recurrence as well as first-time ulcers. It is not only based on a
superficial analysis but also is based on assumptions that have no evidence to be
true. Hence, it can be regarded as inappropriate.
…………………………………..

The following appeared in an article from a popular newsmagazine.
"In 1888 a stone was unearthed in northern Wisconsin with an inscription in an

old Scandinavian alphabet and bearing the date 1362. Scandinavians were not,
however, exploring or emigrating to northern Wisconsin in the fourteenth
century. Recent analysis proves, in fact, that the stone had been buried in the
spot where it was found for no more than 100 years. Moreover, the community
near the discovery site was home to a group of people who had formed a club to
study medieval Scandinavian culture - a period that includes the fourteenth
century. The stone, therefore, is not a genuine artifact of medieval Scandinavian
culture inscribed in the fourteenth century but most likely a hoax perpetrated by
the group."
The writer of the article gives an account of a stone, with Scandinavian alphabet
and dated 1364, which had been unearthed in northern Wisconsin. According to
the writer, this stone does not belong to the Scandinavian culture but is a hoax
belonging to a club that studied the medieval Scandinavian culture near the
discovery site. He supports his argument by saying that Scandinavians were not
exploring northern Wisconsin in the fourteenth century. Moreover, it has been
found that the stone had not been buried for more than 100 years. The argument
seems to be agreeable at the first glance, but it contains certain flaws due to
which it can be criticized for being unconvincing.
The writer believes that Scandinavians could not have brought the stone since
they were neither exploring northern Wisconsin nor immigrating to the place in
the fourteenth century. However, this does not confirm that it did not belong to
the medieval Scandinavian culture. While it could be true that the Scandinavians
did not bring it, it could have been brought by some other sources. For example,
people from northern Wisconsin could have traveled to Scandinavia and brought
it with them as a remembrance of the place. It is also possible that some traveler
was gifted the stone and he carried it to this place. The stone could have attracted
the interest of some visitors to the place who took it along in order to study the
script on it. Therefore, even if the stone was not brought by Scandinavians, these
possible sources cannot be ignored.
If the stone was found to be buried for not more that 100 years, it does not
indicate towards only one conclusion as inferred in the argument. It is possible
that the stone was not buried for a long time since it was being carried to
different places for a long time. It could also have been carried from one
generation to another and thus buried much later. Therefore, even if was not
buried at the time of the Scandinavians, it is possible that the stone belonged to
that era.
There is no evidence provided by the writer of the article that indicates that the
stone is not a genuine artifact of the medieval Scandinavian culture. As discussed
above, the fact that it was not brought by Scandinavians or was not buried for
more than 100 years ago do not prove that it was not original relic of
Scandinavians. There is no proof of the fact that it was a hoax made by the club
studying the medieval Scandinavian culture. The only thing that relates the stone
to the study is that it was found at the site which was a home to this club and that
the club was studying the Scandinavians. However, if they attempted to make any
replicas of the original stones, or if they were actually studying an original stone
cannot be confirmed from the given argument. It is likely that since they were
studying fourteenth century medieval culture, they were studying an original relic
and were trying to decipher the script written on it.
Therefore, there are many other interpretations of the facts given in the
argument. It might not lead to the only conclusions as mentioned in the
argument, but may direct to another direction as well. Therefore, the conclusion
drawn in the argument that the stone is not an original is contradictory since the
argument fails to convince the reader for the same.
………………………………….

The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.
"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu
epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968,
and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity - that is, years when
the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at
particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun."
In the article of the health section of the newspaper it is advised that people who
have a higher risk of catching flu should avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun. This
is concluded from the fact that in the past 300 years, the six worst worldwide flu
epidemics occurred in the years with heavy sunspot activity. However, the article
leaves scope for doubt and thus can be criticized for being faulty and forming
irrelevant conclusions.
The argument is based on the available medical records that are mentioned in the
argument. It is only the available medical records of the past 300 years that have
indicated the given results. However, there could be a large number of medical
facts that do not have a mention in these records. Whether these available
records were detailed analysis and comprehensive accounts of the situation or
just a superficial study of the given years is not known. Moreover, it does not
extend to the period beyond 300 years. However, there could have been even
worse flu epidemics before the given 300 years. Since there is no record for these
epidemics, it is possible that those years did not observe any significant sunspot
activity, as did the years mentioned in the argument. Hence, the conclusion of the
argument is restricted to the available records and does not take into
consideration the time before it.
The argument mentions that the years that saw the worst flu epidemics had
heavy sunspot activity. This forms the basis for relating the epidemic to the
amount of sunlight that the earth receives. However, in the past 300 years there
could have been more years than those mentioned in the argument that had
observed high sunspot activity. Nevertheless, there is no mention of flu or the risk
of catching flu in these years. It is therefore possible that there were many years
that had observed heavy sunspot activity, out of which only six years reported the
epidemic.
There could be many other possible factors that could have contributed to the
outbreak and spread of the epidemic. Flu can be contracted in areas with poor
hygiene. It is possible that the water supplied in a large area was contaminated
and resulted in widespread flu. There could be limited medical facilities to treat
the disease that contributed in making it an epidemic. Flu could also have been a
result of weather change or change in the living conditions of the society. The
writer ignores these factors and only correlates the epidemic with high sunspot
activity.
Similarly, the writer seems to ignore that flu could be prevented with taking
proper care and avoiding all the factors responsible for flu. The writer only
concentrates on avoiding prolonged exposure to Sun in order to prevent flu.
However, those who are at a risk of getting flu should keep in mind all factors that
could result in their contracting the disease. People should keep their
surroundings hygienic and clean. Those who are allergic to certain things should
avoid the source of allergy. There should be proper medical facilities to fight the
disease and its causes. All these things should be taken care of in order to prevent
the spread of flu.
There is not enough evidence provided in the argument that prolonged exposure
to Sun could result in flu. After a detailed analysis of the argument, it seems that
the conclusion is reached in haste by simply putting two and two together. It is
possible that the two facts of flu epidemic and sunspot activity are completely
independent of each other. However, the coincidence of their occurrence at the
same time has forced the writer to come to this conclusion. Therefore, the
argument can be criticized for being formulated on weak evidence and having a
narrow scope.
…………………………..

The following appeared in the health section of Glenntown's local newspaper.
"Several national medical studies suggest that older people who have pets tend to
enjoy better health than those who do not have pets: those who have pets have
lower rates of high blood pressure and arthritis. It seems clear that having to care
for an animal promotes good health for the older person. Therefore, Glenntown
should establish a program to give a small pet such as a dog or cat to all of its
citizens who are over the age of 65. This will help to insure that our senior citizens
enjoy good health and have fewer medical bills."
The given argument arrives at the conclusion that a program should be

established in Glenntown wherein all citizens above the age of 65 should be given
a small pet. The arguer claims that such a program would lead to good health for
all the senior citizens of Glenntown and they will have lesser medical bills. The
argument is supported by the results of several national medical studies that have
indicated that older people who keep pets report lower rates of high blood
pressure and arthritis. However, the results of the national medical studies are
questionable as they fail to sound convincing enough. Therefore, a close study of
the argument reveals several flaws that render the argument unconvincing.
It is true to an extent that keeping pets may indeed be beneficial for health as a
pet would demand physical movement which would eventually promote good
health. However, physical exercise is not the only pre-requisite for good health.
Elderly citizens may have to undergo dietary restrictions like avoiding junk food
with high fat content and increasing their intake of nutritious meals in order to
keep themselves healthy. Moreover, there are various other aspects of health
other than blood pressure and arthritis that have to be considered before one can
be termed as a healthy person. For instance, an elderly citizen needs to have his
cholesterol and blood sugar levels under control if he has to maintain his good
health. Therefore, assuming that lower rates of high blood pressure and arthritis
means that the older people are healthy is highly unconvincing. The arguer needs
to present other health related data of the older people who keep pets in order to
prove that they are indeed healthy.
A major lacuna in the argument is that it does not provide the statistics related to
the age of the people who were a part of the national medical studies. Unless it is
specifically mentioned that the older people being referred to in the results are
more than 65 years of age, the recommendation being made by the arguer is not
justified. This is because the recommendation has been specifically made for the
citizens who are more than 65 years of age. Moreover, there is no mention of the
types of pets that were kept by the healthy people who were a part of the
national medical studies. It is likely that those people kept pets other than cats
and dogs.
Additionally, the argument does not specifically state the proportion of people
from Glenntown who had participated in the medical studies. As the medical
studies have been carried out across the nation, it is necessary to know the
number of people above 65 years of age from Glenntown who participated in the
survey. Unless these statistics are available, it would be unfair to assume that the
elder people of Glennville would show similar results as those indicated by the
national medical studies if they are provided with pets. Therefore, it can be seen
that the argument lacks crucial evidence that can support the recommendation
made.
The arguer completely ignores the fact that people may get unduly stressed with
pets in the house. There may be a requirement of training the pet so that it does
not litter in the house and does not bring diseases into the home. There may be
people who have never kept pets in their lives and suddenly entrusting them with
pets at this old age may aggravate their health further due to undue stress.
Moreover, the arguer fails to provide sufficient evidence that can establish a
direct link between reduction of medical bills and good health. It is likely that
maintaining one's health by going for regular checkups, treatments and having
vitamin supplements may actually raise the medical bills.
In conclusion, the argument is flawed in several respects. It could have been

strengthened by providing more details of the medical studies. These details
should have proved that the overall health of the elderly people of Glenntown
would be benefited by keeping pets as blood pressure and arthritis are not the
only criteria for determining the state of one's health.
………………………….

The following appeared in a report by the School District of Eyleria.
"Nationally, the average ratio of computers to students in kindergarten through

grade 12 (K-12) is 1:5. Educators indicate that this is very good ratio. This means
that across the country, all students have access to and can use computers daily
in their classrooms. In Eyleria's K-12 schools, the ratio of computers to students is
1:7. This number is sufficient to ensure that all of Eyleria's students, by the time
they graduate from high school, will be fully proficient in the use of computer
technology. Thus, there is no reason to spend any of the schools' budgets on
computers or other technology in the next few years."
The argument makes the recommendation that there is no requirement of

spending the schools' budgets on computers or on any other technology as the
ratio of computers to students in the schools of Eyleria is 1:7. The arguer
contends that this ratio is sufficient since the national average is 1:5 and the
educationists say that this is a very good ratio as it indicates that all students
across the country have access to computers on a daily basis. Furthermore, the
arguer asserts that the ratio of 1:7 will ensure that all students will be proficient in
computer technology by the time they graduate from high school. In several
respects, however, the evidence that has been presented lends little credible
support for the argument.
Firstly, the arguer ignores the fact that the national average ratio of computers to
students does not indicate that all students across the nation have access to
computers daily. The average ratio of 1:5 means that there might be some
schools in which this ratio is lesser than or more than 1:5. In other words, there
may be schools in which this ratio is as high as 1:1 or 1:2 which would be an ideal
situation. On the other hand, there may be schools in which there are no
computers at all. It is not necessary that all students get uninterrupted individual
access to a computer. The ratio of 1:5 means that there are 5 students per
computer. Therefore, it is unlikely that each student will be able to get an
individual computer for hands-on practice. Therefore, the assumption that all
students across the nation get easy access to computers daily, stands on shaky
ground.
Secondly, if the classification of the national average ratio of 1:5 is questionable in

itself, then claiming the ratio of 1:7 to be sufficient on the basis of the national
average is far fetched. Simply providing computers to students does not ensure
that they are being well-trained to handle computers. If there are 7 students per
computer, it is highly unlikely that every student will get sufficient time to spend
on a computer for him to be computer proficient. This is because either all 7
students would be sitting on the computer at the same time or else the time slot
allocated for practicing on the computer would be divided by seven so that each
student gets the computer to himself. This slot would then be one-seventh of the
time laid down as per the course curriculum for computer practice. How can then
the arguer assume that the ratio of 1:7 would be sufficient to ensure that all
students would be computer proficient by the time they graduate from high
school?
Thirdly, even if one assumes that the ratio of 1:7 is sufficient, there is no denying
the fact that a ratio of 1:1 or 1:2 is the ideal ratio when it comes to providing
quality computer education in high schools. The national ratio of 1:5 indicates
that there are schools that have a better ratio. Moreover, if one takes the rural
areas into account where the schools probably have no computers, then there
must be a large number of schools that have a computer to student ratio of 1:2 or
closer in order to bring the national average to 1:5. Therefore, there is a strong
possibility that most of the good schools across the nation have a much lesser
number of students per computer as otherwise indicated by the ratio of 1:5.
Lastly, with the passage of time, technology is bound to change and there will
always be a requirement of upgrading the computers and software installed to
the latest versions so that the students are trained with respect to the latest
technology in the market. This would call for a reasonable expenditure from the
schools' budgets on technology. Moreover, reducing the number of students per
computer is a strong reason for spending the schools' budgets on computers. This
is the only way that the students can be trained to be proficient in computers by
the time they graduate from high school. Hence, in view of the above, it is evident
that the recommendation made by the arguer is extremely flawed as it fails to
convince the reader that there is no compelling reason for spending any of the
schools' budgets on computers or technology.

The Treasury has once again introduced a dollar coin, the Pine Tree dollar. Neither
the Presidential dollar coin, introduced 11 years ago, nor the Eagle dollar coin,
introduced 3 years ago, remained in circulation long: people simply preferred
spending paper dollars. However, a survey conducted soon after its release
indicates that the Pine Tree dollar is far more appealing than other dollar coins:
76 percent of respondents own the coin; 62 percent of those owning multiple
coins consider it so attractive that they are still saving rather than spending the
most recent coin to come into their possession. Since the Pine Tree coin promises
to become the dollar currency of choice, the Treasury is correct to begin saving
money by dramatically reducing the costly printing of paper dollars.
The arguer claims that the newly introduced Pine Tree dollar coin is bound to
become very popular with people. He draws the conclusion that a reduction in
the printing of paper dollar bills, which is very expensive, would be the right
decision for the treasury as it would lead to a lot of savings. The arguer states that
the Presidential dollar coin and the Eagle dollar coin which were introduced 11
and 3 years ago respectively were not able to remain in circulation; whereas the
Pine Tree dollar coin is already popular as is indicated by the results of a survey.
The argument appears convincing when read for the first time. However, a closer
analysis reveals several flaws that succeed in weakening the argument.
Common sense tells us that people will always prefer dollar bills to coins. The
reason is obvious. Dollar bills are light and you can fit numerous dollar bills into
your wallet as they can be easily folded and carried around. On the other hand,
coins are bulky and heavy. It becomes difficult to carry coins in your wallets and
purses because of their weight and size. Therefore, the contention that the
treasury can consider reducing the printing of dollar bills seems to be highly
unreasonable. This becomes more evident in light of the fact that the Presidential
dollar coin that was introduced almost a decade ago and the Eagle dollar coin that
was introduced more recently were both unable to remain in circulation for long.
The arguer has not been able to provide substantial evidence that can prove
beyond doubt that the Pine Tree dollar coins will surpass dollar bills in their
popularity and usage. There may be other reasons for the respondents of the
survey to have owned the Pine Tree dollar coin. It is likely that since the Pine Tree
dollar coin has just been introduced, people are curious to own the coins as
souvenirs. Moreover, it is possible that the new coin has been designed in such a
way that it looks very appealing and its universal appeal might have led to a
substantial increase in the number of people who are keen to own the Pine Tree
dollar coin. This assumption is further bolstered by the fact that 62 percent of the
people who own the Pine Tree dollar coins find them so attractive that they are
choosing not to spend them and are saving the coins.
At the same time this fact related to 62 percent of the respondents makes the
argument sound ambiguous since it implies that a majority of people are not
willing to use the coins for spending. This means that the coins may no longer
remain in circulation once the initial euphoria has worn out. Therefore, the
arguer's claim that the printing of dollar bills can be reduced does not find
adequate support from the facts presented by the arguer in terms of the results
of the survey.
Furthermore, the arguer needs to present a cost analysis related to the

manufacture of the Pine Tree dollar coins and the printing of the dollar bills to
substantiate his claim that the printing of dollar bills is more expensive as
compared to the manufacturing of the dollar coins. In the absence of such
evidence, the reader cannot be convinced that there will be savings by reducing
the printing of dollar bills.
In the final analysis, the claim made by the arguer is not well supported. The
evidence provided by the arguer does little to substantiate the claim made
therein as there is no concrete evidence that proves that the Pine Tree dollar
coins will remain in circulation for a long time and that the treasury will benefit by
reducing the printing of the dollar bills.

When Stanley Park first opened, it was the largest, most heavily used park in
town. It is still the largest park, but it is no longer heavily used. Video cameras
mounted in the park's parking lots last month revealed the park's drop in
popularity: the recordings showed an average of only 50 cars per day. In contrast,
tiny Carlton Park in the heart of the business district is visited by more than 150
people on a typical weekday. An obvious difference is that Carlton Park, unlike
Stanley Park, provides ample seating. Thus, if Stanley Park is ever to be as popular
with our citizens as is Carlton Park, the town will obviously need to provide more
benches, thereby converting some of the unused open areas into spaces suitable
for socializing.
The arguer recommends that Stanley Park can be made as popular as Carlton Park
if the town provides more benches in Stanley Park in order to utilize the open
spaces available in the park. The arguer presents two facts in support of the
recommendation made. The first fact is that there was an average of 50 cars
coming to Stanley Park per day as per the recordings of the mounted video
cameras. The arguer compares this with the number of people visiting Carlton
Park which is more than 150 per day. The second fact is that Carlton Park provides
more seating than Stanley Park. However, the argument fails to convince the
reader that the recommendation made is justified due to lack of additional
information.
Firstly, it is not necessary that all the visitors coming to Stanley Park come in cars.
There may be a sizeable number of citizens who come to the park on two
wheelers or who walk down to the park. Moreover, it is likely that the parking lot
is a little away from Stanley Park and hence, most people find it convenient to
park their cars somewhere else. There is no mention of the fact that the mounted
video cameras are fixed or rotating. If the cameras are fixed, then it is likely that
there are corners of the parking lot that are not covered by the video cameras.
Moreover, a car can accommodate up to six to seven people depending on the
type of car it is. Therefore, the number of cars parked in the parking lot cannot be
regarded as the only indication for claiming that there has been a drop in the
number of visitors to the park. The argument can be substantiated to an extent if
it includes additional information that can prove that Stanley Park is no longer
heavily used.
Secondly, the location of Carlton Park may be a compelling reason for a

substantial number of daily visitors to the park. As it is located in the heart of the
business district, it is likely that the park is easily accessible by most people. There
is no mention of the location of Stanley Park. Since Stanley Park is the largest
park, it is possible that it might be situated away from the town. Therefore, the
distance involved in traveling is probably keeping the people from visiting it
frequently. Additionally, the arguer does not provide the statistics related to the
occupancy of the benches at Carlton Park in order to prove that they are being
utilized by the people. It is likely that the benches remain unoccupied as the
people are busy moving around the park. In view of the above, it is likely that
providing more benches in Stanley Park may not affect its popularity at all as the
arguer fails to prove that the benches in Carlton Park are being used by the
people.
There may be several reasons for a park's popularity. The availability of a

hygienically clean rest room within the park, swings for children, a counter for
refreshments, a small gym and the permission to bring in pets are all factors that
significantly contribute to the popularity of a park. Factors like the entry fee for
the park and the ambience of the park including well maintained lawns play
important roles in increasing the popularity of a park. Therefore, unless the
arguer addresses all such factors, the reader cannot be convinced that providing
benches in Stanley Park is more than adequate for increasing the popularity of the
park.
………………………………………..

The following appeared in a memo from the Dean of the College of Education at
Omni State University.
"Only seven of our state's high schools offer even one course in Latin, but over 80
percent of the graduates who study Latin at those seven schools enrolls in college.
Furthermore, a recent study shows that students who have mastered Latin
perform much better in logic and critical thinking. Thus, in order to increase the
percentage of our high school students who graduate from college as well as to
ensure that they receive a better education in critical thinking, Omni State
University should begin an intensive program to prepare our future teachers to
teach high school Latin."
The Dean of the College of Education at Omni State University recommends that
the Omni State University should commence a program for training their future
teachers to teach high school Latin. To support the recommendation made, the
Dean brings out the fact that over 80 percent of students from the seven schools
in which Latin is taught, enroll in college. The dean supports his recommendation
further by citing the results of a recent survey that indicate a link between
mastering Latin and better performance in logic and critical thinking. However,
the argument is highly unpersuasive in its present form due to lack of reasonably
substantiated evidence.
Firstly, the arguer does not provide details regarding the number of high schools
in the state. It is likely that the number of high schools in the state is so high that
the seven schools where Latin is taught are insignificant in comparison. Moreover,
there is no mention of the strength of the high schools. It is likely that these seven
schools are situated in rural areas and therefore, the strength of students in these
schools is very low. Therefore, even if 80 percent of the students from these
schools enroll in college, they would account for a small percentage of the total
number of students enrolled in the college. Hence, this small percentage of
students has unfairly been utilized for supporting the recommendation to start an
intensive program to train teachers to teach high school Latin.
It is likely that these seven schools have a curriculum that pays less emphasis on
outdoor activities, thereby leaving adequate time for the students to learn Latin.
It is not necessary that implementing the same in the other high schools in the
state will have similar results. Moreover, it is likely that the schools in the state
are already facing a shortage of teachers and they may not be able to segregate
teachers who are to be trained for teaching Latin as there may be a more urgent
need to train teachers for other subjects like Math and Science. The arguer fails to
provide information related to the status of the teaching faculty in the high
schools of the state. Therefore, spending time, effort and money in implementing
the program as recommended by the Dean is unwarranted.
Secondly, the results of the recent survey are dubious as the argument does not
include any additional information related to the conduct of the survey. Was the
survey conducted amongst students who study Latin? Were they compared with
the students who do not study Latin? Was a test conducted to assess their logical
and critical thinking capabilities or was the survey restricted to taking feedbacks
from their teachers? The answers to these questions play a crucial role in
determining the authenticity of the results of the survey. Additionally, it is
possible that the students who are learning Latin had good logical reasoning and
critical thinking skills much before they started learning Latin. On the other hand,
it is likely that the seven schools, where Latin is taught, conduct special classes for
training their students for developing their logical reasoning and critical thinking
skills. In the absence of such information the reader cannot be convinced that
mastery over Latin assists in improving your logical reasoning and critical thinking
abilities.
In conclusion, the given argument is largely fallacious. It may have been

strengthened by providing reliable evidence that proved that gaining mastery
over Latin actually improves your critical thinking skills and that teaching Latin
across all high schools in the state will increase the number of students who
enroll for college. Moreover, the reader needs to be convinced that the students
of all the high schools in the state will benefit from the program to train teachers
to teach high school Latin.
……………………………….

The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores
located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both
domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses
at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin.
Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an
increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our
company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve
profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of
imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
In the given memo, the president of a US based chain of cheese stores

recommends that they should stock domestic cheese only and discontinue
stocking imported cheese. The president claims that this would lead to reduction
of expenses due to the limitation on inventory. The argument is supported by the
fact that the five best-selling cheeses in the past year at their newest stores were
domestic cheeses. Moreover, a recent survey conducted by Cheese of the World
magazine has indicated an increasing trend of consumption of domestic cheeses
among its subscribers. A closer analysis of the argument reveals that it suffers
from several logical fallacies.
The fact that there has been an increase in sales for domestic cheeses in the
newest stores in the past year does not necessarily mean that the remaining
stores across the country are experiencing similar preferences from their
customers. It is likely that the new stores have been set up in rural areas where
the people are used to having domestic cheese. As the sales statistics refer to the
past year only, it is likely that in the coming time the sales of imported cheese will
also increase once the people get used to their taste. Moreover, it is likely that
the locations of the new stores are such that their customers come from humble
backgrounds and they cannot afford expensive imported cheeses. Therefore, the
arguer unfairly makes a hasty recommendation that all the stores of the company
should discontinue stocking many of their varieties of imported cheeses.
Another flaw in the argument is the assumption that the results of the survey
conducted by Cheeses of World magazine will hold true for the customers of the
company's cheese stores as well. There is no mention of the number of
subscribers who are regular customers of the company. Moreover, there is no
mention of the location where the survey was conducted. Was it conducted in the
towns where the company has its cheese stores? The results of the survey may
hold true for the people who were a part of the survey, but the arguer fails to
establish a link between the subscribers who participated in the survey and the
people who buy domestic cheeses from the company's cheese stores. Therefore,
the preferences of the subscribers as reflected by the results of the survey may
have little to do with the sales of the imported cheeses offered at the stores of
the company across the country.
Even if we assume that there is indeed an increased preference for domestic

cheeses among the customers of the company, the arguer needs to provide
details of the sales figures which can prove that the action of discontinuing the
stocking of imported cheeses would result in profits. It is likely that the sale of
imported cheeses brings in much higher profit as compared to the sale of
domestic cheeses. Therefore, discontinuing the stocking of imported cheeses may
ultimately lead to losses for the company especially since the arguer has failed to
prove that the customers of the company prefer domestic cheeses in all the
stores throughout the country.
As the argument does not consider any other alternatives for increasing the
profits of the company, the recommendation made by the arguer sounds
unreasonable and unconvincing. The argument could have been bolstered with
information that could have linked the results of the survey to the preferences of
the customers of the company. Moreover, there is a need to provide information
on the sales statistics related to imported cheeses and domestic cheeses at all the
stores of the company.
……………………………

The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a
client.
"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have
traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region
experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters
at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several
more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during
the past year. Because of these developments, we predict an increased demand
for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of
whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
This letter from an investment advisory firm predicts an increased demand for
heating oil in the northeastern United States and therefore, they advise their
client to invest in Consolidated Industries which deals in the retail sale of home
heating oil. The arguer states that the northeastern states have cold winters and
oil is used as the main fuel for heating homes. Furthermore, these states saw 90
days in the past year when the temperature was below-average and it has been
forecasted that this weather pattern will continue for many more years. The
arguer claims that the construction of new homes in this region adds to the above
mentioned reasons for an increase in the demand for heating oil. The argument
seems convincing when it is given a cursory reading, but an in-depth analysis
reveals several logical fallacies that have rendered the argument indefensible.
A major lacuna in the given argument is the unjustified assumption that the
residents of the northeastern region will need more heating oil in case the
weather remains the same for the next several years. It is likely that the people
may switch to other forms of central heating facilities or they may not need any
additional oil as the oil being used by them is sufficient for heating their homes.
Moreover, the construction of new homes indicates the possibility of some other
modern heating system being installed that is probably electrical and does not
require the use of heating oil at all. Therefore, the assumption that there will be
an increase in the demand for heating oil in the northeastern region is
unwarranted.
Another lacuna in the given argument is that the arguer has unfairly assumed that
Consolidated Industries caters exclusively for the northeastern states of the US. It
is highly probable that Consolidated Industries supplies heating oil to other parts
of the country. At the same time, it is likely that the residents of the northeastern
states do not use the heating oil marketed by Consolidated Industries. There may
be other local industries in the northeastern region that provide heating oil which
is more popular with the residents of this region. Therefore, neither the cold
winters nor the construction of new homes in the northeastern region may be
instrumental in affecting either the sales of Consolidated Industries or the
demand for its heating oil.
On the contrary, it is likely that Consolidated Industries is facing losses as they

supply heating oil to a region that does not require the same. It is also likely that
the oil manufactured by Consolidated Industries is used more often by factories
and industries as compared to homes. Moreover, as the arguer makes no mention
of the present sales statistics of Consolidated Industries, it would be unreasonable
to assume that the demand of heating oil marketed by the company is on the rise.
Even if we assume that there is an increase in the demand for heating oil in the
northeastern region and that Consolidated Industries is the sole provider for
heating oil in that region, the arguer cannot make the hasty recommendation that
one should invest in Consolidated Industries. This is because it is not necessary
that catering to an increase in demand would lead to profits for the company. The
company may require additional manufacturing units, more raw materials,
additional workers etc. In the absence of detailed information on the finances
involved in manufacturing the additional heating oil and the profits brought in by
the sale of the heating oil, one cannot be convinced that the investments would
easily be recovered and that the company will have good profits. In view of the
above, the advice given by the arguer seems extremely unreasonable.
In sum, the inference drawn by the arguer is fallacious, at least without additional
evidence to support it. The arguer needs to bolster the argument with
information related to the sales statistics of Consolidated Industries including the
region where it operates. Moreover, there is the requirement of evidence that
can prove that the cold weather would actually lead to an increase in the demand
for heating oil.

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a newspaper serving the
villages of Castorville and Polluxton.
"Both the villages of Castorville and Polluxton have experienced sharp declines in
the numbers of residents who pay property taxes. To save money and improve
service, the two villages recently merged their once separate garbage collection
departments into a single department located in Castorville, and the new
department has reported few complaints about its service. Last year the library in
Polluxton had 20 percent fewer users than during the previous year. It follows
that we should now further economize and improve service, as we did with
garbage collection, by closing the library in Polluxton and using the library in
Castorville to serve both villages."
The arguer recommends that the villages of Castorville and Polluxton merge their
libraries as the merger of their garbage collections departments had been
successful as has been reflected by the less number of complaints received about
its services. The arguer supports his recommendation by stating that the sharp
decline in the number of residents who pay property taxes had been countered
by the money that was saved and the improvement in services provided by the
merger of the garbage collection departments. Nevertheless, on closer scrutiny, it
is seen that the argument provides scant evidence that can prove the validity of
the recommendation made.
Firstly, the arguer fails to substantiate the assumption that a lesser number of
taxpayers has led to a decline in the tax revenues of Castorville and Polluxton. It is
likely that there has been a change in the taxation policies which has led to an
increase in the property tax rates. This could have led to the decline in the
number of property tax payers due to the hike in the amount to be paid or it is
likely that the new tax policies have exempted certain categories of people from
paying property taxes. Nonetheless, the high tax rates would have ensured that
the tax revenue for the villages does not dip below the minimum requirement.
Moreover, the arguer does not address other sources of revenue like income tax
which would still be contributing to the revenues for the villages. Therefore, in all
probability there have been no losses to the tax revenues of the villages despite
the fall in the number of property tax payers.
A less number of complaints does not indicate that the people are happy with the
merger of the garbage collection departments of the two villages. There may be a
number of people who are unhappy with the services being provided by the
merged garbage collection department, but they have chosen not to file written
complaints. The merged garbage collection department now has to cater for the
requirements of both the villages as opposed to one village before the merger
and therefore, it is evident that there are bound to be shortcomings with the
services being provided.
The fact that there have been a lesser number of users in the past year, as
compared to the year before that, has been cited as the main reason for the
merger of the two libraries. However, the arguer has completely ignored the fact
that one year is too small a time frame to assess the usage of the services being
provided by the library in Polluxton. It is possible that the less number of users in
the past year was due to some other reason like renovation of the library building.
It is not necessary that the conditions will be the same in the future also and so
the claim that the library needs to be merged with the one in Castorville is
unwarranted.
Finally, the arguer draws an unfair analogy between the garbage collection
departments and the libraries of the two villages. What seems to have worked for
the garbage collection departments may not hold true for the libraries as well.
The merger of the garbage collection departments did not affect the residents of
the two villages as it were the garbage collectors who had to come to their houses
despite the distance between the two villages. On the contrary, if the libraries are
merged, the people of Polluxton will have to travel all the way to Castorville to
use the merged library. Therefore, it is not necessary that the merger of the
libraries would be as successful as the merger of the garbage collection
departments. Moreover, the arguer does not provide any evidence that proves
that the merger of the libraries would result in added tax revenues for both the
villages.
The argument needs to be strengthened by proving that the library in Polluxton

will not be used often in the future also and that both the villages will benefit
from the merger of the libraries. Therefore, in light of the fallacies that have been
discussed, the given argument has been rendered indefensible due to lack of
crucial evidence in its support.
………………………………..

The following appeared in a memo from a budget planner for the City of
Grandview.
"To avoid a budget deficit next year, the City of Grandview must eliminate its
funding for the Grandview Symphony. Our citizens are well aware of the fact that
while the Grandview Symphony Orchestra was struggling to succeed, our city
government promised annual funding to help support its programs. Last year,
however, private contributions to the Symphony increased by 200 percent, and
attendance at the Symphony's concerts-in-the-park series doubled. The
Symphony has also announced an increase in ticket prices for next year. Such
developments indicate that the Symphony can now succeed without funding from
city government and we can eliminate that expense from next year's budget. This
action will surely prevent a budget deficit."
The budget planner for the city of Grandview argues that the government should
eliminate its funding for the Grandview Symphony Orchestra in order to evade a
budget deficit in the coming year. He supports the argument by citing three facts.
The first is that the private contributions to Symphony have increased by 200
percent in the past year. The second fact is that the attendance in the Symphony's
concerts-in-the-park series had doubled in the past year. The last fact presented
by the arguer in support of his recommendation is that Symphony has announced
an increase in the ticket prices for next year. The arguer utilizes these three facts
to conclude that Symphony does not require funding from the government for its
success and therefore, the arguer recommends that the government can stop
funding Symphony for avoiding a budget deficit in the coming year. A close
scrutiny of the argument reveals that the facts presented do little towards
supporting the recommendation made.
The first fact presented by the arguer is largely unsubstantiated as it fails to prove
that Symphony is now enjoying unquestionable success. The increase in the
private contributions in the past year may be for a variety of reasons which may
not occur again in the coming future. There may have been some celebrities or
prominent figures that were approached by Symphony for donations and these
people might have made some contributions to help Symphony establish itself.
There is no guarantee that such private contributions will be made in the future
also. Moreover, it is likely that the funding being done by the government is
encouraging people to make private contributions in order to assist Symphony in
achieving success. Therefore, it is likely that once the government withdraws its
financial support, the private contributions also stop as the people will get the
indication that Symphony has achieved the desired level of success.
Even if we assume that the private contributions will continue after the
government withdraws its support, it is not necessary that the contributions being
made will be sufficient for Symphony to sustain itself. Furthermore, the arguer
does not mention the amount that has been contributed and the difference that
it would make to the functioning and success of Symphony. It is likely that the
private contributions being made were negligible in the past and the increase by
200 percent in the past year makes little or no difference to the financial support
needed by Symphony for its success. Therefore, the first fact provided by the
arguer does nothing to substantiate the recommendation made by the arguer.
The second fact is related to the attendance for Symphony's concerts-in-the-park

series. It is likely that this series was conducted in a festive season or was
conducted in conjunction with some other popular artists. It is likely that there
were some celebrities who were attending or performing in these series and that
might explain the increase in attendance. There is no mention of the duration of
this series of concerts. It is likely that this series is conducted once in a year and so
a high attendance in these concerts may not be able to make a significant
difference to the total income earned by Symphony.
The third fact counters the recommendation made, rather than supporting it. If
Symphony is planning to increase its ticket prices, then it indicates that Symphony
has not been able to sustain itself at the present ticket prices. There is no
information pertaining to how the people may react to the increase in ticket
prices. If there is a dip in the sale of tickets due to the hike in prices, then the
overall effect will be that Symphony will not be able to muster enough financial
support for achieving success especially if the government also withdraws its
funding.
Even if we assume that the government should withdraw its funding as Symphony
is now successful enough, there is no information related to the difference it
would make to the budget. It is likely that the amount being provided by the
government to Symphony is insignificant when compared with the funds
allocated to the city as its annual budget. Therefore, stopping the funding of
Symphony may not have the desired effect on the budget deficit. Hence, lack of
sufficient evidence has rendered the given argument indefensible in several
respects.
……………………………………..

Yellow-legged frogs were once common in high-altitude lakes in the Sierra Nevada
mountains, but they have become increasingly rare. Trout feed on tadpoles and
young frogs. Few lakes in the Sierra Nevada had any trout in them until a hundred
years ago. At that time, many lakes were stocked with trout for recreational
fishing, and now trout are common in virtually all bodies of water in the Sierra
Nevada. Researchers removed the trout from one lake, and the frog population
soon quadrupled. Since frogs are capable of moving several miles over land,
removing trout from just a few lakes is clearly the way to restore the frog
population to its former levels.
The arguer recommends that removing trout from a few lakes in Sierra Nevada is
indisputably a good method for increasing the population of yellow-legged frogs
in the region. The arguer asserts that when trout was removed from one lake, the
population of frogs had quadrupled. The arguer utilizes this fact to conclude that
removing trout from a few lakes will have similar effects for the entire region as
frogs can travel long distances on land. However, this recommendation is
fallacious, at least without additional evidence in its support.
The arguer does not eliminate other reasons that could have resulted in the
increase in the frog population after the researchers removed trout from the lake.
It is likely that the lake is a special case and that the conditions at the time when
the research was being carried out were conducive for increase in frog
population. Moreover, there is a need to address other aspects of the research as
well. The arguer provides no information related to the other actions carried out
by the research team. They might have altered the ecological balance of the lake
as a part of their experiment. This might include sowing underwater plants,
adding organic substances to the water of the lake etc. It is likely that these
actions succeeded in creating an environment that allowed the tadpoles to
survive. Moreover, it is likely that there were other forms of underwater life that
fed on tadpoles and these were also removed along with trout. In the absence of
such evidence, the arguer has unfairly linked the increase in the frog population
to the removal of trout from the lake.
Moreover, the arguer has brought out that these lakes were used for recreational
fishing. Therefore, regular human interference could have led to a disturbance of
the ecological balance of the lakes. It is likely that the water of most of the lakes
has been polluted to the extent that the survival of frogs is no longer possible
without making efforts to restore the ecological balance of the lakes. Therefore,
the contention that removing trout from a few lakes would suffice for an increase
in the frog population is unwarranted.
Even if we assume that the removal of trout was actually the reason behind the
increase in the population of yellow-legged frogs, one cannot be convinced that
the conditions in all the lakes of the region would be the same. It is likely that the
other lakes in the region are home to other forms of underwater species that feed
on tadpoles. Moreover, there is no mention of the locations of the lakes where
the arguer suggests removing trout. It is possible that the lakes may be in an area
that is too hot for survival of yellow-legged frogs. As brought out in the argument,
yellow-legged frogs were common in the high-altitude lakes of Sierra Nevada. It is
likely that due to global climatic changes, the climate of the high altitude areas is
no longer cold enough for the yellow-legged frogs to survive. The lake where the
research was carried out was probably in the uppermost reaches of the region
and therefore, the cold climate helped the frogs to survive. Therefore, the
removal of trout from randomly selected lakes will probably not affect the
population of frogs in a manner similar to that observed in the lake where the
research was carried out.
In order to establish a concrete link between the removal of trout and the
increase in the population of yellow-legged frogs, the arguer needs to provide
additional information related to the research work that was carried out.
Moreover, the reader needs to be educated about the climatic conditions that
existed a century ago when yellow-legged frogs were commonly found in the
Sierra Nevada region and it should be compared with the climatic conditions that
exist today. In the absence of such information, the reader cannot be convinced
that the yellow-legged frog population will increase by removing trout from a few
lakes.
……………………………

Studies show that in 70 percent of traffic accidents, at least one driver involved is
less than 10 miles from home when the accident occurs. This statistic indicates
that drivers have a tendency to drive incautiously when they are close to home,
probably because familiar surroundings give them a false sense of security. Thus,
the places where people feel safest are the places where they are in fact at
greatest risk of serious injury.
The arguer of the above argument wants to recommend that the places that
people feel are safest are in fact places where people are at greatest risk of
getting serious injury. There are various arguments presented by the arguer in
support of his stand. The first argument in support of the arguer's
recommendation is the study which indicates that in 70 percent of traffic
accidents at least one of the drivers is almost as near as 10 miles from his home.
The other argument which arguer states to further make his argument strong is
the statistic which shows that when the drivers enter familiar surroundings they
get a false sense of security. This false sense of security makes them careless, thus
causing accidents.
The first argument presented by the arguer is ambiguous in regard to the studies
which show that one of the driver in 70 percent of the accidents is as near as 10
miles from home. The arguer has not mentioned the period when the studies
were done. There is a possibility that the studies are about a certain area which
was quite accident prone. The arguer has not mentioned the place and may be
the law and order of the place was not strict enough to control traffic rules. The
arguer has also not mentioned the age of drivers as very young and very old
drivers are more prone to accidents. It is also quite possible that in the area
where the studies were conducted maximum offices or the work places were in
the radius of 10 miles. In absence of the relevent facts it is very difficult to
understand and accept the arguments made by the arguer.
The arguer in his second argument states negligence on the part of drivers as he
reaches his familiar surrounding because it gives the feeling of security. This
argument is absolutely baseless. The arguer has mentioned about the statistics
which indicate this observation but the arguer has not mentioned the exact
number or percentage of drivers who felt so. This is an assumption and exact
figures are not given.
The assumptions made by the arguer are very misleading. The arguer has not
mentioned that the studies conducted were of a particular place which was more
accident prone due to the various reasons like merging traffic, blind turns, hilly
area or bad roads. In addition the arguer has stated that the driver who is close to
his home is more reckless than the driver who is far from his home. The arguer
has also not mentioned whether all the accident victims inflicted with serious
injuries were the ones who were closer to their homes or the ones who were far
were also inflicted with serious injuries. Again in all the cases of accidents
reported in the surveys whether the drivers who were near to their homes were
the ones who caused accidents is not mentioned.
The arguer must present us with the more precise and acceptable facts. The
studies and statistics should be more relevant and accurate to make the arguer's
stand stronger.
…………………………..

Copper occurs in nature mixed with other minerals and valuable metals in ore,
and the proportion of copper in the ore can vary considerably. Until fairly
recently, the only way to extract pure copper from ore was by using a process
that requires large amounts of electric energy, especially if the proportion of
copper in the ore is low. New copper-extracting technologies can use up to 40
percent less electricity than the older method to process the same amount of raw
ore, especially when the proportion of copper in the ore is high. Therefore, we
can expect the amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry to
decline significantly.
In the above argument the arguer wants to support the new copper-extracting
technologies. The arguer presents different arguments in support of his stand.
The arguer presents us with the fact that the new copper-extracting technology
uses 40 percent less electricity than the older method and especially when the
proportion of copper is high in the ore. The arguer presents us with the argument
that the new copper-extracting technologies would make the consumption of
electricity decline.
The first argument by the arguer is dubious. The arguer states that the new
method would take 40 percent less electricity to extract same amount of raw
copper especially when the proportion of copper is high. This statement indicates
that if the amount of copper is low then it might take more electricity. The arguer
has not mentioned the credibility of the new technology under the circumstances
when the copper proportion is low. The arguer fails to bring about the exact
difference in the performance of the technologies as if the same amount of
copper has to extract from the ore which has high copper content. There is a
possibility that the difference in electricity consumption can be quite negligible.
The arguer presents us with the argument that the new technology would use less
electricity but the arguer has not mentioned whether the new machinery can
used to extract copper where the proportion of copper is low with the same
electricity usage. There is a possibility that the new technology would use huge
amount of electricity and may be even more than the old copper extraction
technology.
The argument states that the copper is present in nature mixed with other
minerals and their contents can vary considerably. The arguer fails to mention
that if the content of copper in an ore is low then whether the new copper-
extraction technology would work and if so then what would the electric
consumption. The arguer has also not stated whether the new technology would
help with any by products obtained in the process of extracting copper. The old
technology might be helping with the by products.
The arguer has not mentioned the various relevant aspects in relation to the new
copper-extraction technology. The cost of setting up the technology is not
mentioned and also the difference in the cost of new and old technologies is not
stated. It is quite possible that the cost of setting up is quite high and also the
maintenance expenses are more which would make people old technology. The
size of the machinery is also not known and if bulky it would become
cumbersome to move the machine from one place to another.
The arguer has not given enough reasons to support the assumption that
adoption of the new copper-extraction technology is more useful than the old
one. The various arguments presented by the arguer are not convincing enough
to make us believe that the new technology is better than the old one. The arguer
needs to present more authentic and accurate arguments to support his stand.
……………………………………………

In measuring electrical activity in different parts of the brain, researchers found
that people who describe themselves as generally happy have more activity in the
left prefrontal lobe of their brains than do other people. Therefore, a medication
for stimulating the left prefrontal lobe of the brain would be an effective
treatment for clinical depression.
In the above argument the arguer wants to present his stand in favor of a
medication that would stimulate the left prefrontal lobe of the brain. The
stimulation of the left prefrontal lobe would prove to be an effective treatment
for clinical depression. The arguer presents a research as a support to his
argument. The research measured electrical activity in different parts of the brain.
The researchers thus found that people who generally described themselves to be
happy had more activity on the left prefrontal lobe of their brain than other
people. The arguer presents his recommendation of the medication merely on
this research.
The recommendation of the arguer is absolutely baseless. The arguer has not
mentioned anywhere in his argument that the research was a success amongst
researchers or the people who were the part of it. The arguer has also not
mentioned whether this research was approved by the researchers or any
government organization. The arguer has nowhere in the argument mentioned
the percentage of people, proportion of people as to old or young, men and
women who were the part of this research. These factors are of utmost
importance in determining the results of a research. A small very insignificant
percentage cannot be applied to the whole population. It is very much possible
that the people who were the part of this research were very optimistic people.
The medication for any of the ailments needs to be full proof as any fault or
failure in judgment can lead to drastic results.
The arguer has mentioned that the research includes measuring electrical
activities in the different parts of brain. The people who described themselves to
be generally happy had more activity on their left prefrontal lobe of their brain.
This research seems to be very weird as the arguer has not mentioned that
because people were happy they had more activity in their left prefrontal or the
activity was there in the left prefrontal of the brain because they were happier.
This is a very ambiguous statement as it is not clear which of the either is leading
to what. The arguer has also not elaborated on the term 'generally happy'. This
could also mean that these people are not always happy and also if the arguer
would have used the more happy people than others then it would have been
more convincing. The arguer has also not mentioned about the other electrical
activities of the brain as there could be some more areas in the brain which if
stimulated could cause happiness.
The research is extremely baseless as happiness is a very relative term. Happiness

can never be triggered. If one thing gives happiness to a person it need not give
happiness to another. The arguer undermines human emotion and wants to
present a medication for that. This research does not justify its stand and the
arguer fails to prove his point. The arguer needs to present more appropriate and
convincing facts as such medications can prove to be fatal for mankind.

The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership.
"Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia
as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in
popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars
has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in
Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year,
it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually
owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling
cars to leasing them."
The above article appeared as a memo from a manager of a car dealership. The
arguer in the above article wants to recommend that in the country of Mohila the
business focus should shift from selling cars to leasing cars. The arguer has given
various arguments in favor of his stand. The first argument presented by the
arguer is that long-term leasing is available in the country from the past ten years
and has steadily risen in popularity since then. The arguer further presents his
argument that the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number
of people buying new cars. The final argument of the arguer in the support of his
stand is that if in the present year the leased cars again outnumber purchased
cars then majority of the drivers would be driving leased cars and therefore focus
should be on leasing cars rather than selling cars.
The arguer in his first argument states that the leasing started in the country of
Mohila ten years ago and since then it has been rising. The arguer has not given
the reason why people in the country preferred to lease cars than purchasing
them.The arguer has also not mentioned whether the same trend of leasing was
dominant equally in the whole country or some part of the country was leading in
leasing rather than purchasing cars. The arguer has not mentioned the reason
why people in Mohila wanted to outright car ownership as owning a car has far
more benefits than leasing one. The cost factor could be one of the reasons that
people of the country prefer leasing rather than owning a car. The arguer has also
not mentioned what percentage of cars are leased and owned.
The arguer also states that new cars were leased more in last five years. There
could be numerous reasons for this. The economy of the country could be going
through a low phase leaving people with the option of leasing cars. The other
reason can be that some people wanted to change their cars and that's why they
must be trying an old model of the same car first. A few unsatisfied prospective
buyers must have opted out of buying new cars.
The arguer in his final argument states that if leasing cars again surpasses
purchasing cars in the present year then the majority of the drivers would be
driving leased cars. This assumption of the arguer is absolutely baseless. The
arguer in the argument has not mentioned the exact number of people actually
opting for leased cars. Moreover it is a hypothetical situation. The arguer should
not base his decision merely on the basis of assumptions. Even if the hypothesis is
correct then also it is not sure that a large number of cars on road would be
leased cars.
The arguments presented by the arguer are flawed and are not well-reasoned.
The arguer also bases his predictions on hypothetical analysis which is very vague.
The arguer should present us with more relevant and acceptable facts.
The following appeared in a newsletter about education policy.
'The average annual earnings of high school dropouts are significantly less than
the average annual earnings of high school graduates. To address this problem,
the state governor has proposed that the state should establish free vocational
training programs for high school dropouts. But the availability of such programs
would probably encourage some students who would otherwise have graduated
to drop out in order to pursue vocational training. Hence the proposed programs
would lower, not raise, the average earning potential of young people. Therefore,
the state should not establish the vocational training programs but should instead
focus on improving academic programs in our high schools.'
The above article appeared in a newsletter about education policy. The arguer in
his argument wants to support improved academic programs in our high schools.
The arguer gives various arguments in support of his stand. The first argument
which the arguer gives in support of his stand is the significantly less annual
earning of the high school dropouts than the average annual earnings of high
school graduates. The second argument presented by the arguer in support his
stand is free vocational training programs for high school dropouts proposed by
the state governor. Such programs encourage the high school students to opt out
of school early who otherwise would have completed their graduation. The third
argument presented by the arguer is the decline in the average earning potential
of young people due to such proposed programs.
The arguer has not presented relevant information about his arguments. His
arguments in support of his stand are very misleading and confusing. The arguer
fails to mention the reason of significantly less earnings of high school dropouts
than high school graduates. The arguer has not mentioned the exact number of
high school dropouts as it is quite possible that in a particular year this trend was
seen. It is quite possible that the high school dropouts were placed nicely or else
they would have been pursuing higher education.
The arguer in his second argument is against the governor's proposed free
vocational training program as such programs mislead students to opt out of
further education. The arguer here has not stated the need of such special
program. There could be a possibility that the parents of some students were not
in a position to support the further education of their wards. That is why the
vocational programs were to be launched free and hence such students would be
capable of earning and supporting their families. There is also a possibility of
some students who were not doing academically well also opting out of high
school. Thus, such vocational programs would be helpful for them also.
The arguer in his last argument states that if students keep opting out of further
education the average earning potential of young people would be lowered. The
arguer has not mentioned that the fact that if they would be undergoing
vocational courses then they would be getting placed better and thus they would
help in increasing the average earning capacity of young people.
The arguer recommends improving academic programs in our high schools. The
arguer has nowhere mentioned that if the academic programs would be improved
then there would be fewer dropouts from high school. The arguer has not
mentioned that the students were dropping out because there were no good
academic programs.
All the arguments presented by the arguer against the free vocational program
prove to be baseless. The arguer should give more convincing arguments.
Moreover the arguer has not presented sufficient arguments in support of his
recommendation. In absence of convincing facts it is not advisable to accept any
proposed recommendation of the arguer.
……………………………….

The following appeared in a newsletter about health.
"The proportion of children in the United States who are overweight is greater
now than ever before. Obesity rates among children have been increasing since
the 1970's and, during that same time period, the proportion of children living in
suburbs has increased. Whereas children in rural areas tend to have outdoor
active chores and children in cities often walk to school or other places they need
to go, children in suburbs are typically driven everywhere. Thus the increase in
childhood obesity is probably due mainly to the suburbanization of America and
the associated decrease in the opportunities children have for exercise."
The above article appeared in a newsletter about health. The arguer in the above
argument wants to state that the increase in childhood obesity in America is
probably because of suburbanization and it is also related to decrease in the
opportunities children have for exercise. The arguer is blaming suburbanization
for the increase in obesity in children in America. The arguer gives various
arguments in his support. The first argument which the arguer gives in his support
is that since 1970's the obesity rates among children have been on rise and also
the proportion of children living in suburbs has increased. The second argument
which the arguer gives is that in rural areas and cities children are more active as
they do household chores and even go walking to school; whereas in suburbs
children are driven to everyplace. Thus, there is rise in obesity in children who live
in suburbs.
The arguer mentions in the very first line of his newsletter that the proportion of
overweight children in the United States is greater now. This statement means
that children were already overweight in large numbers but that number of
children who were already overweight was not because of suburbanization. The
recommendation made by the arguer falls flat as it does not have any relevance.
The arguer in his first argument states that because children living in suburbs
have increased that is why obesity in children has increased. This is a very
baseless assumption by the arguer. Nowhere has the arguer mentioned the
relation between suburbanization and obesity. The arguer has not mentioned
what percentage of children living in suburbs was obese. It is quite possible that
children who added to the rise in obesity were already suburban and not the
newly shifted children.
In the second support for his argument the arguer states that rural and city
children do household chores and go walking to their schools and on the other
hand suburban children go everywhere in cars. The arguer has not mentioned
anywhere that rural or city children do not add to the proportion of obese
children. The arguer has only mentioned that suburban children are driven down
to all the places but this certainly does not mean that they do not play or do
household chores. The arguer has not mentioned that rural children are not
driven to any place. The arguer has also not mentioned that the children who
were staying in suburbs were not doing any exercise.
The arguer has not been able to present any relation between obesity and
suburbanization. In the absence of relevant facts the true reason behind the
increase in obesity amongst children is not clear. The arguer has also not
mentioned the various eating habits of the children as this is a very important
aspect. The arguer has also not mentioned the age group of children who under
obesity as younger children tend to be more obese than adolescents. The arguer
needs to present more accurate facts to make his stand more convincing.
…………………………………..

The following appeared as part of an article in a health and beauty magazine.
"The Longhaul trucking company was concerned that its annual accident rate (the
number of accidents per mile driven) was too high. It granted a significant pay
increase to its drivers and increased its training standards. It also put strict limits
on the number of hours per week each driver could drive. The following year, its
trucks were involved in half the number of accidents as before the changes were
implemented. A survey of other trucking companies found that the highest-paid
drivers were the least likely to have had an accident. Therefore, trucking
companies wishing to reduce their accident rate can do so simply by raising their
drivers' pay and limiting the overall number of hours they drive."
The above article appeared in a magazine for the trucking industry. The arguer
through the article wants to recommend that in order to reduce the accident rate
the trucking companies should increase the pay of their drivers and also limit the
overall driving hours. The arguer presents the example of Longhaul trucking
company whose accident rate was very high and then the company thought of
putting a strict limit on the number of driving hours for the drivers. The accident
rate reduced to half without the implementation of the scheme of reducing
driving hours. The arguer further supports his argument by giving example of a
survey of other trucking companies which found that highest paid drivers were
least likely to do an accident. Thus, the arguer is of the view that in order to
reduce the accident rate drivers must be paid a higher salary and at the same
time working hours should be reduced.
The arguments presented by the arguer are not at all convincing. The arguer has
reached to the conclusion that because drivers were less paid and they were
working more hours per week they were causing more accidents. The arguer has
not mentioned whether the drivers were paid very less salary. The arguer has also
not mentioned about the working hours of the drivers and whether the drivers
were driving overtime. It is merely an assumption on the arguer's front that
working hours were the cause of accidents. There is no single example mentioned
by the arguer in the argument which would indicate that the accident happened
because of less salary or long working hours of drivers.
The arguer has not mentioned the condition of the trucks of the Longhaul
trucking company. It is quite possible that the trucks were very old and thus were
unable to perform nicely on roads. The arguer also fails to mention the various
routes that the trucks were taking. It is possible that the road had many pits and
blind turns or the route was through a hilly terrain which was very risky and
accident prone. The arguer also fails to mention the role of the other drivers in
accidents.
The arguer mentions that without reducing the working hours of the drivers the
accident rates reduced to half. This means that the cause of accidents was not the
working hours but could have been bad roads or non-maintained trucks.
The arguer also mentions that the survey of the trucking companies found that
highest paid drivers were less prone to accidents. This certainly does not mean
that because the driver was paid more that's why he was doing less accidents but
it could have been that because he was not doing any accidents he was paid
more.
The arguer is unable to prove any relation between the salary and driving hours of
the drivers with the accident rates. Thus, it would not be wise to say that the
drivers were causing accidents because they were paid less and they worked for
more hours.
…………………………………

The cities of East Sacunda and West Sacunda are in an earthquake-prone area.
Since 1985 both cities have had stringent building codes requiring all new
buildings to have specific features designed to prevent damage in an earthquake.
Buildings built before 1985 are exempt from the codes, but many building owners
have modified their buildings to make them conform to the 1985 codes. Last year
a major earthquake hit the area, and many people lost their homes. The number
of people who were left homeless was much higher in East Sacunda than in West
Sacunda, however, so we can conclude that building owners in East Sacunda were
less likely to modify their buildings so as to bring them up to the 1985 code
standards.
The arguer in the above argument is laying stress on the point that not much
building owners in East Sacunda have amended their buildings according to the
building codes which came into practice since 1985. The arguer presents us with
arguments to prove his point. The arguer states that since both the cities East
Sacunda and West Sacunda were earthquake prone there were stringent building
codes that came into practice which needed to be followed by all the new
buildings which were to be constructed after the period of 1985. A major quake
hit the cities last year and the numbers of people left homeless were much more
in East Sacunda than in West Sacunda. The conclusion made by the arguer is
absolutely baseless and without any authentic reasons.
The arguer in the argument states that the building codes came into practice from
1985 and after that the arguer has not mentioned whether there was any major
quake before last year. This means that probably people amended their buildings
as per the code but seeing that there were not many major quakes after 1985
there might be a possibility that people had become a little carefree in their
approach towards amending the buildings. It is very much possible that people
preferred making new buildings rather than amending the older ones as
amending is a more tedious job.
The arguer further mentions that in a major quake last year more homeless
people were from East Sacunda than West Sacunda. The arguer has not
mentioned the intensity of the earthquake for both the cities as it is very much
possible that both cities had different intensity of the quake measured on the
Richter's scale. There is a probability that the earthquake was more intense in the
eastern part of the city and because of this the city saw maximum destruction.
The arguer has not stated anywhere in the argument that the people who were
left homeless were all residing in the buildings that were constructed before the
period of 1985 and also that those buildings were not amended according to the
building codes. It is very much possible that the newly constructed buildings and
the buildings amended under the building codes also suffered destruction and
also added in making more number of people homeless in the city of East
Sacunda.
The arguer is making an allegation on the people of East Sacunda without any
proper evidence. The arguer has not presented any evidence which would prove
that the people of that city did not follow the building codes and thus suffered
maximum destruction. The arguer has nowhere in the argument mentioned about
the people who were left homeless in West Sacunda also. This could mean that
people in the western part of the city also did not comply with the building codes.
The arguer fails to prove his stand as there is no proper evidence presented by
the arguer which proves that the East Sacunda people were less likely to comply
with the building codes than the people of West Sacunda
………………………………………..

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of an archaeological magazine.
"Archaeologists excavated a cave that had been inhabited by prehistoric people

for thousands of years. These people hunted wild animals, many of whose bones
were found at levels corresponding to different times of habitation. Most of the
bones at the oldest levels, over 40,000 years old, were from a deer species whose
modern-day descendants are known to prefer woodland habitats, whereas most
of the bones at more recent levels, dating from 30,000 to 10,000 years ago, were
from a gazelle species whose modern-day descendants are known to prefer
grasslands. We can thus conclude that the climate of the area changed
dramatically between 40,000 and 30,000 years ago, causing the terrain to change
from woodland to grassland."
The above article appeared in a letter to the editor of an archaeological magazine.

The arguer in the above argument is of the view that the dramatically changed
climate between the 40,000 to 30,000 years caused the terrain to change from
woodland to grassland. The arguer supports his argument through different
reasons in the argument. The arguer states that the cave was inhabited by
prehistoric people and they depended on hunting of wild animals. The bones
found at the oldest level are of the deer species whose present day descendants
prefer woodlands. The more recent level bones found match with the deer
species whose descendants prefer grasslands. Therefore, the arguer concludes
that the climate changed dramatically causing the terrain to change. The arguer
fails to make convincing arguments.
The various argument presented by the arguer are baseless. There is no relation
between the climate change and hunting of animals by prehistoric people. The
arguer fails to mention whether these two species of deer existed together or not
and if they did then it is quite possible that the earlier people preferred hunting
one species and the later ones preferred hunting the other deer species. It can be
just the matter of change in taste of the prehistoric people. It is quite possible
that the woodland and the grass existed together in those times so people were
going to different places for hunting.
The arguer takes support of the fact that the descendant deer species still
preferred the same woodland and grassland. It is quite possible that in all these
years there must have been change in the habitat of descendant deer species.
The descendants of the older times deer now preferred opposite habitat due to
the change in preference in food, or just that in so many years they preferred
shifting from one terrain to another. Hence, it was not the climate but the animals
that might have changed their habitat.
The arguer assumes that solely the climate played a role in changing the terrain. It
is quite possible that humans or animals had a great role to play in it as they were
residing in the woodland and thus they destroyed large number of forest. The
arguer only assumes that the change in terrain was the result of climate change.
There is no evidence which the arguer presents to support his view point. This
study is only based on the study of one single cave. There is a possibility that older
bones were carried by the prehistoric people or animals from a different region.
There are no other evidence that been found and only on the basis of the bones
found it would not be justifiable to conclude that the climate was the sole culprit
for the change in terrain.
The arguer fails to justify his stand and convince us. The arguer must provide us
with more authentic study and evidence in support of his argument. The
observation of the arguer falls short of relevant proof.
…………………………..

The following appeared in a magazine for the trucking industry.
"The Longhaul trucking company was concerned that its annual accident rate (the
number of accidents per mile driven) was too high. It granted a significant pay
increase to its drivers and increased its training standards. It also put strict limits
on the number of hours per week each driver could drive. The following year, its
trucks were involved in half the number of accidents as before the changes were
implemented. A survey of other trucking companies found that the highest-paid
drivers were the least likely to have had an accident. Therefore, trucking
companies wishing to reduce their accident rate can do so simply by raising their
drivers' pay and limiting the overall number of hours they drive."

The above article appeared in a magazine for the trucking industry. The arguer
through the article wants to recommend that in order to reduce the accident rate
the trucking companies should increase the pay of their drivers and also limit the
overall driving hours. The arguer presents the example of Longhaul trucking
company whose accident rate was very high and then the company thought of
putting a strict limit on the number of driving hours for the drivers. The accident
rate reduced to half without the implementation of the scheme of reducing
driving hours. The arguer further supports his argument by giving example of a
survey of other trucking companies which found that highest paid drivers were
least likely to do an accident. Thus, the arguer is of the view that in order to
reduce the accident rate drivers must be paid a higher salary and at the same
time working hours should be reduced.
The arguments presented by the arguer are not at all convincing. The arguer has
reached to the conclusion that because drivers were less paid and they were
working more hours per week they were causing more accidents. The arguer has
not mentioned whether the drivers were paid very less salary. The arguer has also
not mentioned about the working hours of the drivers and whether the drivers
were driving overtime. It is merely an assumption on the arguer's front that
working hours were the cause of accidents. There is no single example mentioned
by the arguer in the argument which would indicate that the accident happened
because of less salary or long working hours of drivers.
The arguer has not mentioned the condition of the trucks of the Longhaul
trucking company. It is quite possible that the trucks were very old and thus were
unable to perform nicely on roads. The arguer also fails to mention the various
routes that the trucks were taking. It is possible that the road had many pits and
blind turns or the route was through a hilly terrain which was very risky and
accident prone. The arguer also fails to mention the role of the other drivers in
accidents.
The arguer mentions that without reducing the working hours of the drivers the
accident rates reduced to half. This means that the cause of accidents was not the
working hours but could have been bad roads or non-maintained trucks.
The arguer also mentions that the survey of the trucking companies found that
highest paid drivers were less prone to accidents. This certainly does not mean
that because the driver was paid more that's why he was doing less accidents but
it could have been that because he was not doing any accidents he was paid
more.
The arguer is unable to prove any relation between the salary and driving hours of
the drivers with the accident rates. Thus, it would not be wise to say that the
drivers were causing accidents because they were paid less and they worked for
more hours.
…………………………

The following appeared as an editorial in a health magazine.
"Clormium 5 is an odorless, tasteless, and generally harmless industrial by-

product that can enter the water supply. A preliminary study has linked cooking
with water containing clormium 5 to an increased incidence of allergies and skin
rashes. Tests of the drinking water in several areas have revealed the presence of
clormium 5. Although it is possible to remove clormium 5 from water, the costs of
routine testing and purification are higher than many communities can afford.
Therefore, in order to prevent allergies and skin rashes, communities that cannot
afford to rid their drinking water of clormium 5 should replace drinking fountains
in public buildings, such as schools and libraries, with bottled-water coolers."
The editorial claims that though Clormium 5 is generally harmless, it has been
proved to be the cause of allergies and skin rashes when water with clormium 5 is
used for cooking. Furthermore, drinking water being supplied in several areas has
been found to contain clormium 5. The arguer brings out that the costs of routine
testing and purification of drinking water may be out of the financial reach of
most communities. In view of the above, the arguer recommends that
communities that cannot afford to get their drinking water purified should
replace the drinking fountains in public buildings with bottled-water coolers.
However, in several respects, the evidence provided by the arguer does little to
substantiate the recommendation made.
Firstly, the arguer makes contradictory statements in the opening lines of the
argument itself. If the industrial by-product clormium 5 is 'generally harmless',
then it cannot be dangerous to the health of humans unless it is present in water
in alarming proportions. A major flaw in the argument is that the arguer makes no
mention of the percentage of clormium 5 in water that can lead to allergies and
skin rashes. Moreover, there is no mention of the percentage of clormium 5 in the
drinking water that has tested to be positive for clormium 5. It is highly likely that
the percentage of clormium 5 found in drinking water is much below the level
that can be termed as the threshold level for causing allergies and skin rashes.
Therefore, due to the absence of such information, the reader cannot be
convinced that the drinking water is indeed polluted to the extent that remedial
action, as suggested by the recommendation made, is absolutely necessary.
Secondly, the arguer does not provide complete information related to the
preliminary study that has been carried out. Additionally, the preliminary study
does not provide information related to the effects of clormium 5 when it is not
being used for cooking. The water used for cooking may have contained other
compounds that resulted in the allergies and skin rashes. Moreover, as these
effects have been observed when water is used for cooking, it is possible that
clormium 5 reacts in heat to form another compound that causes these allergies
and the same water is totally harmless when it is consumed at lower
temperatures in the form of drinking water. Therefore, the results of the
preliminary study are doubtful and the arguer has unfairly utilized these
unsubstantiated results to bolster his argument.
Thirdly, there is no indication of the areas from where the drinking water samples
were collected for testing purposes. It is likely that these samples were collected
from a small area and therefore, the results of the test cannot be considered
applicable for the entire city. Therefore, replacing the drinking fountains at all
public buildings with bottled-water coolers on the basis of these random samples
is not justified. The arguer does not present a cost analysis of replacing drinking
water fountains with bottled-water coolers and the purification of water. In the
absence of such data, it cannot be hastily concluded that the recommended
replacement would be a cheaper option than the purification of drinking water.
Moreover, as the allergies have been found to come up when water with
clormium 5 is used for cooking, replacing the drinking fountains seems to be an
unnecessary action.
In conclusion, the reader needs to be provided with additional information

related to the preliminary study in order to find the recommendation convincing
enough. Moreover, there is a need to provide information related to the levels of
clormium 5 that can be considered as detrimental to health. The cost comparison
of the replacement of drinking water fountains with bottled-water coolers and
the purification process is also required. The absence of such data has rendered
the argument highly unconvincing.
……………….

Allergies are an overreaction of the immune system to certain stimuli. One view is
that allergies can develop as the result of childhood exposure to certain irritants,
such as dust or animal dander, while the immune system is not yet mature.
Another view is that exposure to particular bacteria early in childhood actually
triggers the proper development of the immune system, and that limiting
exposure to these bacteria through excessive hygiene can cause children's
immune systems to overreact to certain irritants later on. A new study supports
the second view: children who are washed especially frequently and whose
parents clean their homes especially frequently are more likely to develop
allergies than are other children. So in order to reduce the incidence of allergies in
children and adults, parents should not limit children's exposure to irritants or
bacteria.
The given argument discusses two views related to the development of allergies.
The first is that exposure to certain irritants like dust or animal dander during
childhood can lead to allergies since the body's immune system is not fully
developed in children. The second view is that the development of the immune
system is activated by exposure to certain types of bacteria in childhood. The
arguer cites the results of a new study and claims that they support the second
view. The study has concluded that being excessively hygiene conscious can have
side effects like the children's immune system overreacting to certain irritants
later on in life. Therefore, the arguer recommends that parents should not be
overtly conscious about cleanliness because it is not necessary to limit exposing
their children to irritants or bacteria. Despite the evidence provided in its support,
the argument fails to sound convincing enough.
The entire argument rests on the results of a new study, but the arguer has
unfairly linked the results of the study with the second view related to allergies.
The study mentions that people who clean their homes more frequently have
children who are more susceptible to allergies. However, the arguer does not
provide critical evidence which can convince the reader that the results of the
study actually support the second view related to allergies.
Firstly, there is no mention of the demographic cross-section of people that were
a part of this study. It is possible that the study was conducted among people who
belonged to the lower rung of society and their food habits were such that their
children developed allergies despite the fact that the people kept their homes
clean and they washed their children frequently. Moreover, it is likely that their
homes were situated in surroundings that were unhygienic and therefore,
cleanliness of either their children or their homes could not save their children
from developing allergies.
Secondly, the argument does not shed light on the types of allergies that were
developed by the children whose parents were conscious about their hygiene. It is
likely that the allergies were hereditary and these children would have greater
chances of developing the allergies as compared to the children whose houses
were not clean but probably their parents never had these allergies themselves. It
is likely that the allergies contracted were diagnosed to have been transmitted by
eating certain types of food or using certain types of cosmetics or soaps. Such an
allergy would have little to do with bacteria that can be washed away.
Thirdly, washing the children or cleaning the home does not necessarily mean
that all the bacteria and irritants have been washed away. Even if children are
being washed more frequently, it is likely that they are still being exposed to
bacteria as they were not washed with soap and warm water. Homes cannot be
rid of bacteria and other allergy irritants unless they are cleaned with
disinfectants. It is likely that the homes were cleaned frequently, but the doors
and windows were generally left open and the bacteria found its way back into
the homes. Therefore, it is not necessary that frequent cleaning and washing had
got rid of the bacteria and the children actually developed allergies because of
exposure to bacteria and irritants which were present despite the frequent
cleaning.
Lastly, the study cannot hold true for the general population as there is no
evidence that proves that the results of the study will hold true for the entire
populace. There is no indication of the state or country where the study was
conducted, but the arguer makes a sweeping recommendation for everybody.
Unless the arguer provides information related to the area where the study was
carried out, the recommendation made by him cannot hold true for all parents
and children across the globe. Moreover, there is a need to provide evidence that
links the results of the study to the second view related to allergies. In the
absence of such crucial evidence, the argument has been rendered indefensible in
several respects.
…………………..

The following appeared in a letter to an editor.
"In many countries, wood is the primary fuel used for heating and cooking, but
wood smoke can cause respiratory and eye problems, and extensive use of wood
causes deforestation, a major environmental problem. In contrast, charcoal,
made by partially burning wood in a controlled process, is a fuel that creates less
smoke than wood does. Moreover, although charcoal costs slightly more than
wood, less charcoal is needed to produce the same amount of heat. Therefore,
people who use wood as their primary fuel can, without experiencing economic
hardship, switch to charcoal and can thereby improve their health and preserve
the environment."
The arguer recommends that people who use wood as their primary source of
fuel can switch over to charcoal for health related benefits and for preserving the
environment. This recommendation is supported by the fact that charcoal creates
less smoke as compared to wood. Moreover, less charcoal is needed as compared
to wood for generating the same amount of heat. The arguer asserts that
extensive use of wood causes deforestation which will be limited with the use of
charcoal and this would also ensure that people will be less exposed to smoke
which is a health hazard. However, without additional information, the argument
is rendered unconvincing in several respects.
A major lacuna in the argument is the lack of information pertaining to the

amount of wood that is being used as fuel. It is likely that the countries where
wood is being used as a primary fuel for cooking, have large reserves of forests
and the amount of wood being used is very less as compared to the available
forest cover. Moreover, there may be local laws that prevent people from using
the wood of big and rare trees as fuel. Additionally, it is likely that the countries
are conscious of the utilization of wood as a major source of fuel and these
countries have initiated country wide drives to plant more trees so that the
problem of deforestation can be addressed. People may be using the wood from
fast growing trees as fuel. Moreover, major reasons for deforestation are the
felling of trees for creating land for construction or farming, utilization of wood
for furniture and homes, forest fires etc. Therefore, unless the arguer provides
accurate data related to the amount of wood being utilized as fuel and the
deforestation being caused due to the wood being used as fuel, it would be unfair
to attribute the problem of deforestation with the utilization of wood as a source
of fuel.
The arguer clearly states that smoke is injurious to health and since charcoal also
produces smoke, it will still be a health hazard despite the fact that it produces
smoke in lesser amounts as compared to smoke generated by burning wood. As
charcoal has been created by processing wood, it is likely that charcoal smoke
may be even more hazardous than wood smoke despite being produced in
smaller amounts. Therefore, the usage of charcoal does not eliminate the
possibility of contracting respiratory and eye problems.
As charcoal is produced by processing wood, it is evident that it will be more

expensive as compared to wood. The people who are using wood as a primary
source of fuel may be from poor family backgrounds and therefore, it is highly
unlikely that they will be able to afford the high price of charcoal. If they had that
much of financial support, then they would have already switched to other forms
of fuel like gas or oil for cooking burners. Without presenting data related to the
cost of using charcoal and the financial status of the people who are using wood
as fuel, the arguer cannot hastily arrive at the conclusion that the people can
conveniently switch to charcoal without experiencing economic hardship.
In conclusion, the argument fails to sound convincing as it has been seen that
charcoal may turn out to be as detrimental to health as wood is when it is used
for cooking. Moreover, as charcoal is also a different form of wood, the problem
of felling trees for producing charcoal still exists. Hence, the conclusion that the
usage of charcoal will result in health and environmental benefits, is by and large
unreasonable and far-fetched. The argument could have been bolstered with
additional information related to the benefits of using charcoal as compared to
wood.
……………………..

The following appeared in a memo from the business manager of Medicine, Inc., a
local drugstore.
"Most business analysts for the drugstore industry have stated that even when a
nation's economy is weak, drugstores' profits are unlikely to decline appreciably.
While consumers might put off some kinds of purchases when the economy is
slow, prescription and over-the-counter drug purchases are dictated by
consumers' health needs, which are independent of the economy. Therefore,
Medicine Inc. is likely to continue to have increasing profits and should plan to
open an additional drugstore next year."
The business manager of Medicine, Inc. utilizes this memo to recommend that
Medicine Inc. is likely to continue its profitable business despite a weak national
economy and therefore, Medicine Inc. should plan on opening an additional
drugstore in the coming year. The arguer supports his recommendation by citing
the statements of business analysts, most of who have agreed that the profits
made by drugstores are unlikely to decline even in the face of poor economy
because consumers' health is not governed by the nation's economy. Therefore,
even when the economy is slow, over-the-counter drug purchases are unlikely to
decline. However, the argument suffers from several fallacies that render the
recommendation made by the arguer unconvincing.
A major flaw in the argument is that the arguer has completely ignored the
present status of Medicine Inc. with respect to its sales and popularity. In the
absence of information related to the consumer's demands and the availability of
stock with Medicine Inc., it would be unwarranted to assume that there is a
requirement of a new drugstore in the coming year. The arguer cannot rely on the
nation's economy to prove that Medicine Inc. will continue to reap profits in the
coming year as well. If there are no surplus demands for the products stocked by
Medicine Inc. in the present, then it is highly likely that the company will run into
losses by opening the new drugstore as they may not be able to recover the
investments made. Other factors like the location of the new drugstore,
competition in the market, financial implications of employing additional staff etc.
will determine the profitability of the new drugstore. Unless these aspects are
discussed by the arguer, the argument sounds unconvincing and fallacious.
Even if we assume that Medicine Inc. has a huge consumer demand and that they
have the financial capability to establish a new drugstore, the assumption that
Medicine Inc. will continue to make profits in the face of slow economy is
unwarranted. Firstly, slow economy would mean lesser money in the hands of
consumers who may not be able to buy medicines easily. Secondly, the business
analysts whose statements have been used by the arguer to substantiate his
recommendation have made these statements in respect of the entire drugstore
industry. It is likely that they may have been referring to big drugstore chains
which would probably not be affected by the economy as their clientage includes
big hospitals and government establishments. As Medicine Inc. is a local
drugstore, it is likely that the statements of the business analysts may not hold
true for Medicine Inc. Thirdly, even if the health of people is independent of the
economy, what is the surety that people will increasingly fall sick so as to accrue
increasing profits for the drugstore? An increase in profits may have been possible
if the prices of medicines had risen or if there was a sudden increase in the
consumer demands for the stocks held by Medicine Inc. The arguer does not
touch upon other reasons that may lead to an increase in profits for Medicine Inc.
despite a slow economy.
Therefore, the assumption that Medicine Inc. will continue to be a profitable

business in the coming year and that it should now contemplate establishing a
new drugstore is highly unconvincing due to lack of crucial evidence in its support.
The argument could have been strengthened with evidence that proved that the
profits of Medicine Inc. will definitely increase in the future and that Medicine Inc.
has the financial capability to open a profitable new drugstore. Moreover, there is
a need to prove that the statements made by the business analysts will hold true
for local drugstores like Medicine Inc. too.
……………………

The following appeared in a memo written by the head of the Gorham School.
"Our school cafeteria should make changes in the lunches that it serves in order
to improve the health of our students. Several teachers and I have observed that
students who eat these meals tend to eat the main course and the dessert, but
seldom finish the vegetable portion. This pattern means that students are missing
the vital nutritional benefits of fruits and vegetables, which are typically rich in
vitamins and minerals. Therefore, the school cafeteria should serve larger fruit
and vegetable portions along with smaller main course and dessert portions. This
change will be effective because, according to research conducted at the Rose
Children's Hospital, children eat the same amount of food served to them - about
55 percent, on average - no matter what the main course is."
In this memo, the head of the Gorham School recommends that the school
cafeteria provide larger fruit and vegetable portions as compared to the main
course and dessert portions and he asserts that this would improve the health of
the students. The head supports this recommendation by stating certain facts.
The first is that it has been observed that the students rarely finish the vegetable
portion, although they generally finish the main course and the dessert. The
second fact is that as per a study conducted at the Rose Children's Hospital, the
children there eat the same amount of food irrespective of the main course.
Therefore, the arguer concludes that this change would be as effective in Gorham
School as well. Despite the evidence provided, there are certain fallacies present
in the argument that question the credibility of the recommendation made by the
arguer.
The arguer neither addresses nor eliminates the reasons that may be responsible
for the children not eating the vegetable portions of the meals. It is likely that the
vegetable portion of the meals is either poorly cooked or is tasteless and this
would account for the fact that it is left by most of the students. Moreover, it is
likely that the vegetable dishes are being prepared by a cook other than the ones
who prepare the main course and the desserts. It is likely that the same vegetable
preparation is supplied to the students frequently. Therefore, the monotony
involved in having the same dish everyday has made the children avoid eating the
complete vegetable portions. Without information about the taste and the quality
of the vegetable portion, it would be hard to convince the reader that the
proportion of the portions of the entire meal has to be changed in order to force
the children to eat the vegetable portions.
Moreover, if a child does not like the vegetable portion of the meal, it is unlikely
that he will have it even if the proportions of the other portions of the meals are
reduced. Therefore, increasing the vegetable portion of the meals would be a
futile effort, as the children may not eat the larger portions also unless the root
cause of their not eating the vegetable portions is not addressed. Moreover, the
arguer does not consider other options like including fruits in the desserts and
integrating vegetables in some form with the main course. This would ensure that
the children are having some vegetables and fruits in their regular meals even if
they do not finish the vegetable portions of their meals.
The arguer has unfairly assumed that the results shown for the children in the
Rose Children's Hospital will hold true for the students of Gorham School as well.
A school and a hospital are two separate entities and neither the meals being
served and nor the children at both these institutes can be compared. The meals
being served at the hospital would have been specially prepared for the sick
children and the children have no option but to have those meals; whereas the
children attending school are hale and hearty and they would like to have meals
as per their taste and liking. Moreover, the children at the hospital probably have
their parents with them during meal times who coax them into finishing all the
portions of their meals. Additionally, the children would be in the hospital for a
short duration of time, so they probably eat whatever is served because they
know that it is only for a few days and then they can eat whatever they like once
they are discharged from the hospital. On the other hand, meals at the school are
a regular affair and as the students have to eat the same meals daily, the students
may not be open to the idea of being forced to eat something that they do not
have a liking for.
The argument could have been strengthened with additional details about the
taste and the quality of the vegetable portions being served to the students.
Moreover, there is a need to provide information related to the research that was
carried out in the hospital to make the results of the research applicable to the
school as well. In view of the above, it is evident that the arguer fails to persuade
the reader that the action of increasing the vegetable portions of the meals is
warranted.
…………………..

The following appeared in a memo written by the head of the Gorham School.
"Under Governor Winslow's leadership over the past four years, Myria has
enjoyed unprecedented prosperity. Average wage increases this year are higher
than they have been at any time since the 1970's, the number of people who
report being unemployed has decreased by 10 percent, and construction of new
homes is up by one third. In contrast, over the past four years Governor
Winslow's opponent, Mr. Homer, has been mayor of a city in which only a small
number of new businesses have opened. If Myrians want another four years like
the past four years, they should reelect Governor Winslow."
The arguer recommends that Governor Winslow should be reelected to power as

the governor of Myria since the past four years during his tenure as the governor
have brought in prosperity for Myria. The past four years have seen an increase in
the average wages, a decrease in the number of unemployed people and an
increase in the construction of new homes. The arguer compares this with the
situation in a city where Mr. Homer, Governor Winslow's opponent, has been the
mayor for the past four years. The city has seen only a few new businesses
opening up during the past four years. The given argument suffers from several
fallacies that render it unconvincing.
First and foremost, the capability of a governor cannot be adjudged by the

average wages, unemployment and construction of new homes only. It is likely
that these aspects have improved due to the efforts put in by Governor Winslow's
predecessor and so Governor Winslow cannot be given the entire credit for the
same. There is a need to assess the civic situation in Myria before one can be
convinced that Governor Winslow has indeed been successful in his tenure as
governor. Information related to the crime rate in Myria, the civic facilities
available, the law and order situation, the standards of education being provided
etc. needs to be provided in order to assess the effectiveness of Governor
Winslow in leading Myria to prosperity.
An increase in the average wages does not necessarily mean that the wages of all
the citizens of Myria have improved in the past four years. It is likely that there
has been an increase in the wages of the people who were already drawing high
salaries. This has made the average wages go higher up, but the workers who are
getting low wages have seen no improvements in the past four years. It is likely
that a lesser number of people have reported being unemployed. Moreover, it is
possible that the problem of unemployment in Myria is so profound that people
have moved out of Myria in search of better jobs. These factors could explain the
decrease in the numbers of unemployed people.
Additionally, construction of new homes is not an indication of the success of the

governor of Myria. There is no information pertaining to the construction of new
homes in the past. It is likely that the construction of homes was almost negligible
and therefore, even if it has increased by one-third, it would not account for a
large margin by which the construction has increased. Moreover, it is likely that
the new homes are being constructed by people who do not live in Myria
themselves but they plan to rent them to Myrians for business purposes.
Another major lacuna in the given argument is the lopsided information provided
with respect to Governor Winslow and Mr. Homer. If the capabilities of Mr.
Homer have to be compared with those of Governor Winslow, there is a need to
provide additional information related to Mr. Homer's tenure apart from the
number of businesses that have come up in his tenure as mayor. Lack of
information in this aspect makes it difficult to believe that Governor Winslow
would be the best choice for Myria's governor for the coming term.
Therefore, the arguer fails to convince the reader that his recommendation is
valid as he has failed to provide adequate evidence in its support. The arguer
needs to provide additional information like the lowest wages being drawn by the
Myrian workers, the exact number of unemployed Myrians and the number of
Myrians who are constructing new homes in order to convince the reader that the
average wages, the unemployment statistics and the construction of new homes
point towards the prosperity of Myria. Moreover, the reader would like to know
more about Mr. Homer before he can be convinced that the recommendation
made is justified.
…………………………..

The following appeared in a memo from a member of the Clark City School Board.
"Mason Elementary School is faced with a shortage of classroom space. At the

same time, parents in our district are increasingly expressing the desire to see
improvements in their children's reading abilities. Therefore, we should reduce
the number of physical education classes at Mason Elementary and convert part
of the gymnasium to class-room space. The school will gain the additional space
for classrooms without the cost of extending the building and can use the time
that students would have spent in physical education classes to provide more
reading instruction. This plan will lead to improvements in students' reading
skills."
In this memo, a member of the Clark City School Board suggests that Mason
Elementary School can improve the reading abilities of its students by utilizing the
time allotted for physical education for imparting reading instructions to children.
The arguer further recommends that the school gymnasium should be partly
converted into classroom space which can be utilized for conducting reading
classes. He argues that this action would ensure that the school gains additional
classroom space without spending money on extending the existing school
building. A careful reading of the given argument reveals several flaws that make
the argument weak and unsubstantiated.
Common sense tells us that physical education and reading skills are both
necessary for the overall development of children. Therefore, the contention that
physical education can be ignored for improving the reading abilities of children is
largely unjustified. Even if parents are insisting that the school should make
efforts to improve the reading abilities of their children, it is unlikely that they will
be open to the idea of reducing the physical activity of children in lieu of providing
time for reading classes. The argument could have been bolstered to an extent if
the arguer had provided some form of evidence that proved that a majority of
parents are willing to let their children not engage themselves in physical activity
and attend reading classes instead. Moreover, the arguer needs to inform the
reader of the percentage of school hours that are dedicated to physical
education. This would be needed to convince the reader that these hours are
more than what are required and so they can be reduced. In the absence of such
evidence, the assumption that the number of physical education classes can be
reduced to create time for reading classes is fallacious.
Even if one assumes that reducing the physical education classes would be a
justified decision, the reader needs to be convinced that there is a requirement of
additional classrooms. As the school in question is an elementary school, it is
unlikely that the students need separate classrooms for different subjects. Even if
they do need separate classrooms, the arguer needs to establish the need for
constructing additional classrooms before recommending the conversion of a part
of the gymnasium into classroom space. The arguer should have eliminated other
options for carrying out reading classes like continuing in the existing classes,
utilization of other available space like the auditorium or school halls.
It is true to an extent that the school will save money by not having to extend the
school building if they convert the gymnasium, but there is no denying the fact
that the process of constructing classrooms in one portion of the gymnasium
would also require some form of financial investment. As the gymnasium is an
already established structure, it may need major renovations to make it suitable
for conducting classes. Moreover, there may be the requirement of procuring
additional furniture to be placed in the classrooms. The arguer has not addressed
the problem of relocating the equipment that is presently installed in the
gymnasium. Not using the equipment would account for large scale wastage of
the financial investments made in procuring the equipment. Moreover, there may
be the need to erect a shelter or store room to house the equipment and
furniture that was placed in the gymnasium before its renovation. Therefore, the
assumption that converting a part of the gymnasium would be a cheaper option
needs to be substantiated with data pertaining to the cost analysis of the
extension of the school building and the renovation of the gymnasium.
The argument is further weakened by the absence of elimination of options like

improving the teaching standards of the school, a change in the course
curriculum, change of study materials, audio-visual aids etc. for improving the
reading abilities of the students. In view of the above, it is evident that the given
argument has been rendered unpersuasive in several respects due to lack of
sufficient evidence in its support.
……………………….

The following appeared in a memo to managers of Christine's, a chain of craft
stores.
"Several major newspapers have recently run articles noting an increased interest
in pottery. The number of potters in this country has risen by eighteen percent in
the past five years, and pottery is particularly gaining popularity on college
campuses. In order to take advantage of these trends, Christine's should
immediately begin carrying a larger volume of pottery supplies. Since several of
our stores have recently experienced a decrease in sales of painting supplies, all
store managers should reallocate shelf space from the painting area for the
display of pottery. Stores should display posters showing pottery that is designed
to appeal to college-age individuals. These actions will undoubtedly increase our
profits dramatically."
The given memo recommends that all the stores of Christine's should start
stocking pottery items and they should display posters aimed at attracting
college-age people to buy the pottery items. The arguer asserts that the store
managers should ensure that the shelf space in the stores is reallocated to
accommodate pottery items. The arguer concludes that these actions would
ensure an increase in profits for Christine's chain of craft stores. The argument is
supported by articles in several newspapers that have highlighted an increased
interest in pottery. Moreover, the number of potters in the country has risen by
eighteen percent in the past five years and pottery is fast becoming popular
among college going people. However, in several respects the evidence provided
by the arguer lends little credible support to the argument.
Firstly, the newspapers may have reported an increase in the interest shown in
pottery, but the arguer does not provide the details of the sale of pottery items
that has taken place as a result of this interest. It is likely that this interest in
pottery is in the form of a hobby and this could explain the increase in the
number of potters. However, people may not be interested in buying pottery.
Moreover, there is no mention of the areas which have reported an increase in
interest in pottery. These might be some rural areas where the people are looking
at pottery as a means of livelihood or this interest may be limited to people who
have a keen interest in art. It is not necessary that the stores of Christine's would
be located in the same vicinity. Unless the arguer provides evidence that explicitly
establishes an interest in pottery in the region where the stores are located, it is
hard to be convinced that stocking volumes of pottery by removing paintings
would be a profitable venture in all the stores of Christine's.
Secondly, an increase in the number of potters does not indicate an increased

demand for pottery. The potters might have taken up this hobby from a business
point of view. On the contrary, it might indicate an increased stock of pottery
available in the market which could eventually lead to a fall in prices of pottery
items. Moreover, an increase by eighteen percent in five years is not a very
significant increase and it does not imply that there has been a sudden surge in
the interest for pottery. Therefore, this fact related to the increase in the number
of potters does little to substantiate the recommendation made by the arguer.
Thirdly, the college students being referred to by the arguer may be the ones who
are pursuing studies in arts related subjects and therefore, they have an inherent
interest in pottery. There is no mention of any statistical data related to the
college going people which could prove that a majority of the students are
showing an interest in buying pottery items. Moreover, as the financial status of
college students is not very high, it is unlikely that the attractive posters would be
able to coerce the students into buying the pottery items as they will probably not
be having spare money to shop for the same.
Lastly, a decline in the sales of paintings in the recent past does not mean that
paintings can be replaced by pottery in the shelves. This could be unfavorable for
the business of Christine's as there might be an escalation in the demand for
paintings in the future and the stores will not be able to profit from the increased
demand as they would not be having any stock of paintings. Moreover, it is likely
that Christine's is not stocking paintings of renowned and popular painters and
hence, the stores are seeing a decline in the sales of paintings. The reader needs
to be told about the status of the sales of paintings in the market in order to be
convinced that the paintings need to be replaced by pottery for an increase in
profits. In conclusion, the recommendation of the arguer is neither well reasoned
and nor is it well supported as the evidence provided by the arguer does little to
substantiate the given argument.
…………………..

The following appeared in a newsletter about health published in the country of
Sauria.
"According to Sauria's leading nutritional experts, a diet high in complex

carbohydrates and low in fat is optimal for good health and longevity. Because
this was the diet of the people who lived in ancient Sauria, one would expect
them to have had long and healthy lives. Yet the mummified remains of Sauria's
ruling classes from two to three thousand years ago show the existence of many
medical problems among the ancient Saurians, including dental problems,
elevated blood pressure, obesity, heart disease, and early mortality. Clearly, the
diet of the ancient Saurians was responsible for these problems. The high
incidence of high blood pressure, obesity, and heart disease in Sauria today even
among those who have tried low-fat, high-carbohydrate diets further proves that
Sauria's leading nutritional experts are wrong."
The given memo recommends that all the stores of Christine's should start
stocking pottery items and they should display posters aimed at attracting
college-age people to buy the pottery items. The arguer asserts that the store
managers should ensure that the shelf space in the stores is reallocated to
accommodate pottery items. The arguer concludes that these actions would
ensure an increase in profits for Christine's chain of craft stores. The argument is
supported by articles in several newspapers that have highlighted an increased
interest in pottery. Moreover, the number of potters in the country has risen by
eighteen percent in the past five years and pottery is fast becoming popular
among college going people. However, in several respects the evidence provided
by the arguer lends little credible support to the argument.
The arguer makes an unfair comparison between the ancient Saurians and the
present generation of Saurians. The conditions that existed in Sauria two to three
thousand years ago are bound to be extremely different from the present
scenario. The medical facilities that are available today were not even dreamt of
by the ancient Saurians. This lack of medical assistance could account for the early
mortality and the high blood pressure and other health related problems.
Common information like pursuing exercises for overall good health and brushing
teeth daily for good dental hygiene were not known in those days and therefore,
people would have contracted several ailments despite following a diet that was
high in complex carbohydrates and low in fat. Moreover, as the mummified
remains are those of the rulers of the ancient Saurians, their health conditions
cannot be used to determine the health conditions of all the ancient Saurians. The
rulers led a better lifestyle as compared to the common people and hence, their
diet and the diet of the common men would not be the same. Even if the ancient
Saurians did lead a life that was the same as those of their rulers, the arguer
needs to eliminate other probable causes of medical problems like fatigue,
overexposure to heat and cold, lack of sleep etc. before the reader can be
convinced that their diet did not affect their health in any way whatsoever.
The second assumption made by the arguer with respect to the ailments being
suffered by the present generation is also fallacious. The arguer fails to provide
statistical data related to the percentage of people with medical aliments who
have stuck to the recommended diet for a long period of time. It is likely that the
people who are following the recommended diet are suffering from these medical
problems for a long time and they have recently switched over to the
recommended diet. On the other hand, it is likely that these people are not
religiously following the recommended diet and they binge on food with high fat
content quite frequently. At the same time, it is likely that the people are
following the recommended diet but they lead a monotonous lifestyle that is
devoid of any form of physical exercise. Moreover, the arguer does not mention
the age group of the people who are reporting medical problems despite
following the recommended diet. This information becomes even more crucial in
light of the commonly known fact that after a certain age, the human body
becomes more susceptible to diseases.
Therefore, due to lack of crucial evidence, the arguer fails to convince the reader
that the diet recommended by the leading nutritionists is not effective in
curtailing the medical problems among Saurians. Following a dietary regime can
help in controlling the medical problems that you are likely to face. Although no
diet can completely eradicate the root cause of any form of medical problem, a
carefully planned diet can definitely help you to control that disease resulting in
longevity and health as has been seen in the case of heart problems which may be
hereditary also. Therefore, the arguer's contention that the recommended diet
has been found to be ineffective is highly questionable due to lack of crucial
…………………………………………

The following appeared in a newspaper published in the state of Celera.
"Speed limits on our state's highways should be eliminated in order to increase

our state's prosperity. Because greater speed means more efficient travel,
commercial deliveries will be faster, increasing business profits. Elimination of
speed limits will also make driving more attractive to motorists, so that more
people will use the highways, providing more highway toll revenues for the state.
At the same time, safety on our highways will not be affected: daytime speed
limits were eliminated last year in the western states of our country, and no
significant increase in the number of accidents in these states has been reported."
The given argument highlights certain assumptions to recommend that the speed
limits on the highways in the state of Celera should be eliminated. The arguer
contends that these actions would lead to prosperity for the state. The first
assumption made by the arguer is that elimination of speed limits would lead to
greater speeds on the highways which would result in faster commercial
deliveries leading to an increase in business profits. The second assumption is that
motorists would be more attracted to driving on highways leading to higher
highway toll revenues for the state. The last assumption is that it is unlikely that
the elimination of speed limits would lead to accidents as has been seen in the
western states of the country where similar elimination of speed limits was
implemented. As it stands, the argument is fallacious in several respects as the
assumptions made by the arguer fail to lend any support to the recommendation
made.
Firstly, the contention that elimination of speed limits will prompt people to drive
faster on the highways for quicker deliveries is by and large unconvincing as the
arguer makes no mention of the present speed limits. Generally, the speed limits
on highways are already quite high and so the vehicles move very fast on
highways. Even if these speed limits are lifted, it is unlikely that the people would
like to drive faster, as they would also be concerned about their safety. More than
the delivery reaching before time, the business owners would be interested in the
safety of their goods which are being transported. Therefore, in all likelihood,
even if the speed limits are eliminated, the business owners will brief the drivers
of the vehicles to drive slowly to avoid damage to the goods being transported.
Even if we assume that the drivers do succeed in making faster deliveries, one
cannot be convinced that these faster deliveries would lead to business profits. It
is a commonly known fact that business profits depend on various things other
than the speed of deliveries. Moreover, the arguer has not provided information
related to the length and breadth of the state of Celera. Therefore, it is quite
possible that the distances in the state are not much and either driving slow or
fast is unlikely to have a major effect on the traveling time. Hence, the first
assumption made by the arguer does little to substantiate the recommendation
made by him.
Secondly, the arguer makes no mention of alternate routes available to the

motorists for traveling through the state. Hence, it is highly possible that the
motorists would be using the highways irrespective of the enforcement of the
speed limits. The argument could have been strengthened if the arguer had
provided information about some alternate routes that are being taken by the
motorists because of the speed limits that have been enforced on the state
highways.
Lastly, the arguer makes an unfair assumption that an insignificant increase in the
number of accidents in the western states after they lifted the speed limits,
reflects that eliminating speed limits in Celera will have similar results. The reader
needs to be informed about the similarities between the terrain and population
of the western states and Celera before he can be convinced that Celera can
expect a similar effect on the rate of accidents. It is likely that the western states
have desert terrains or vast inhospitable moor-lands and therefore, the human
population is scanty leading to a less number of accidents on the highways
despite the elimination of speed limits. On the other hand, it is likely that Celera
consists of mountainous terrain, is situated in the center of the country and is
densely populated leading to a lot of traffic on its highways. Therefore,
eliminating the speed limits on its highways may lead to a much higher number of
accidents.
In conclusion, it can be seen that none of the assumptions presented by the

arguer has succeeded in substantiating the recommendation made by the arguer
and therefore, the argument is rendered unsound and fallacious.
……………………..

The following appeared in an editorial on health problems in the country of
Corpora.
"Some pharmacies now feature ultrasound machines that screen for an elevated
risk of stroke. For a fee, a technician presses a probe against the neck to
determine whether any plaque has thickened the walls of the main artery leading
to the brain. Researchers have shown that a thickening of artery walls is
associated with elevated stroke risk, and such scans typically find that anywhere
from 5 to 20 percent of clients have detectable plaque. All pharmacies should
offer this service, because early detection of increased risk for stroke will
encourage clients to consult with their doctors and make important life-style
changes to reduce their risk of having a stroke. This in turn will cause a decrease
in overall medical costs in Corpora."
The writer of the given argument says that all pharmacies in Corpora should offer
scanning of stroke through ultrasound machines since it would help in detecting
the risk of stroke. He supports this stand by saying that the scan would detect if
any plaque had thickened around the artery leading to the brain. It has been
found that anywhere from 5 to 20 percent patients undergoing the scan have
detectable plaque. The writer therefore suggests that an early detection of the
risk of stroke can help patients to change their life-style in order to reduce the risk
of stroke and this would result in a general decrease in the medical costs in
Corpora. However, there are a number of flaws in the argument that make it
illogical and unconvincing.
The argument does not mention when a patient should get the scan done. While
it does say that the ultrasound scan helps in detecting plaque early, it is not
mentioned how early it can be detected. A patient would get a scan done only if
he is faced with some medical problem. There is no other reason to get such a
scan done. There is no evidence provided in the argument that suggests that the
scan helps in a detection, early enough to avoid a stroke.
Further, the argument also fails to convince that people would consult with their
doctors and make important life-style changes in order to reduce the risk of
stroke. Firstly, there is no mention of the life-style followed by people who get
their scan done. It is possible that they already follow a life-style that helps in
reducing the risk of stroke. Therefore, there is no scope of any further change in
the life-style after plaque is detected in the scan. Secondly, it is possible that the
patients do not give enough importance to the results of the scan and would like
to resume their previous life-styles. The argument does not prove that the
patients would be encouraged enough to change their life-style after they know
the results of the scan. It is, therefore, possible that instead of changing their life-
style, they prefer to visit the doctor and take medicines for the same.
The writer makes a far-fetched conclusion that the scan would help in reducing
the overall costs of medication in Corpora. The argument does not mention how
much the existing medical costs in Corpora amounts to. In order to come to such
a conclusion, the writer needs to justify that people would avoid medication for
the risk of stroke if they get this scan done. The cost of medication should be
significant enough to make a difference to the overall costs of medication.
Moreover, the writer ignores the fee for the scan. He does not mention if the scan
is done for a minimal fee or a heavy sum is charged for it. Consequently, it is
possible that the ultrasound scan is expensive and the patients turn out to spend
more on it than they would actually do on medicines. Therefore, the argument is
flawed since it leaves many unanswered questions. A detailed study of medical
costs in Corpora is required to make any judgments about the decrease in it due
to the scan.
It can therefore be seen that the argument provided by the writer is not sufficient
to support its conclusion. The writer should keep in mind the discussion given
above to amend his statement and come to a better conclusion.
………………………….

The following appeared in an article in Supplements Today.
"Dieticians have long known that professional athletes who eat a lot of nuts have
higher levels of endurance than those who do not. Researchers have recently
discovered that the particular combination of vitamin N and fiber found in some
nuts provides a boost for those who participate in strenuous physical activities
daily. Both vitamin N and fiber supplements are easily synthesized and widely
available. As a result, all those who participate in athletic activities will be able to
increase their endurance and win more games by taking vitamin N along with a
fiber supplement."
The author of the article is of the view that athletes can increase their endurance
and win more games if they take vitamin N along with fiber supplement. He
comes to this conclusion following a research, which says that a specific
combination of vitamin N and fiber supplements helps in boosting the level of
energy in people who are engaged in strenuous activities. It is also known that an
intake of nuts increases endurance levels in athletes. In the first instance, the
article seems convincing and foolproof. However, a detailed analysis exposes the
weakness in the argument provided by the author.
There may be a boost of energy felt by an intake of vitamin N and fiber in nuts,
but the author needs to provide enough evidence that this boost is more than
that provided by the intake of nuts in order to be beneficial to athletes. As is
mentioned, nuts provide higher levels of endurance to athletes, the boost
provided by an intake of vitamin N and fiber may not be significant for them. It is
possible that the energy and endurance that they derive from nuts is more than
that provided by the combination of vitamin N and fiber in nuts.
Moreover, the author needs to support the research with some significant
statistical data that proves that the intake of vitamin N and fiber supplements
taken by athletes improves endurance levels and provides a boost. There are
many other factors that are responsible for the energy and level of endurance
amongst athletes. The overall diet of athletes has a great effect on their stamina.
Similarly, the level of practice and exercise also plays an important role in the
endurance level of athletic people. There needs to be a detailed research keeping
in mind all the factors so that the effect of vitamin N and fiber on the endurance
of athletes is pointed out. Therefore, there is lack of proof that vitamin N and
fiber would help in increasing endurance amongst athletes.
There are a number of athletic events that are different in nature from each
other. The energy required for different events is of different levels. While some
events require the muscular development of a particular area like legs, other
events require the development and endurance in arms more than in legs.
However, the argument does not take into account this difference and gives a
general conclusion for all the athletes. It only mentions the effect of the vitamin
and fiber on the people doing strenuous physical activity. However, winning a
game requires specific training and development of endurance of particular area
in athletes.
Athletes have to be very careful before taking any energy-boosting supplement.

This is because they need to be free of any banned substance that might enhance
their performance. However, the argument suggests that athletes should take
vitamin N and fiber supplements without mentioning their other effects. It is
possible that the intake of this particular substance is not recommended to
athletes because of its heightened effects. Therefore, even if it helps in increasing
the endurance levels it would not be of any use to athletes. The arguer, however,
has not taken this into account.
Lastly, there is no surety of the statement that the athlete who takes vitamin and
fiber supplements would surely win the game. There could be a number of
athletes taking nuts, vitamin N and fiber supplements; however, there is only one
winner in a game. Therefore, the argument proves to be false for the other
athletes who have been taking these supplements but have not won the game. It
can, therefore, be seen that the arguer displays a lack of logic and judgment in
presenting his argument. Instead, he should take into consideration the above
given argument and amend his article to make it convincing and logical.
…………………………………

The following is a recommendation from the human resources department at
Techforce Computer Company.
"Many working parents report that problems related to their childcare

arrangements are a major reason for absenteeism from their jobs. Bridgewell
Corporation, a tele-communications company, implemented an on-site childcare
program and after one year, the company reported that unscheduled absences
had declined by 25 percent. Since Techforce has had an increase in unscheduled
employee absences over the past year, we should therefore implement our own
on-site childcare program. The program will undoubtedly reduce our unscheduled
employee absences, resulting in significantly increased productivity."
The writer of the argument is of the view that implementing an on-site childcare
program will help in reducing unscheduled employee absence from their jobs at
Techforce Computer Company. However, in believing so, the writer is highly
mistaken since there are a number of other issues that need to be taken into
consideration before making any such recommendation.
Firstly, the writer does not provide enough statistics in his argument to prove his
point. He does not mention the number of employees who have reported
problems related to childcare arrangement as a reason of unscheduled absence
from work. The writer must make a detailed study about the number of children
that the employees of Techforce Computer Company have along with their ages.
There must be a survey conducted to find out how many employees would prefer
and benefit from such a childcare program in order to justify its implementation.
It is possible that most of the employees do not have small children. Moreover,
they might not require the kind of program offered by the company due to the
specific needs and requirements of their children.
There is also no evidence of the fact that those who remain absent from work,
from either company, remain so due to the problems related to childcare
arrangements. The writer does not give a justified argument for the reader to
believe that with a childcare program the unscheduled absenteeism from work
would reduce. It is very likely that many of the employees remain absent due to
other reasons as well. It is likely that they have health related problems, or that
they have guests visiting or old people to attend to due to which they remain
absent from work. It is also possible that a 25 percent decline is not a significant
decline, considering that very few people in Bridgewell Corporation might remain
absent due to childcare problems.
The writer fails to explain how this on-site childcare program would help its
employees from work absenteeism. There can be many needs of children that
need to be attended. There could be small children who need constant attention.
There could be sick and unwell kids who need nursing and there could also be
children who are delinquent or difficult to control and who need to be taught how
to behave. Whether this on-site childcare program would cater to all these needs
is not explained in the argument. It is also not clear from his account as to how
the childcare will be carried out. As mentioned above, it is likely that the on-site
program does not suit all working parents. If the writer wants to suggest that the
children be brought to the location of work, it could rather be a nuisance to carry
on such a program.
The fact that on-site childcare program in Bridgewell Corporation helped in

reducing unscheduled absences of employees by 25 percent after one year could
be misleading. There could be many reasons for this decline of absenteeism
amongst employees of Bridgewell Corporation. It is possible that over a year, the
composition of employees had changed from those who have children to those
who do not have children. It is likely that those working parents who required to
remain absent due to childcare one year back do not require it now because of
which they do not remain absent as often. Therefore, if the employee
absenteeism has declined in Bridgewell Corporation it could be due to other
reasons as well.
Lastly, there is no proof of the assumption that implementing childcare programs

would ultimately increase productivity since there are many factors like sincerity
and work efficiency that contribute towards the productivity at work. It can
therefore be said that the argument given by the writer is not logical and ignores
many issues that require to be taken into consideration.
………………………..

The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of a large, highly
diversified company.
"Ten years ago our company had two new regional office buildings built in two
different regions. The buildings were erected by two different construction
companies - Alpha and Zeta. Even though the two buildings had virtually identical
floor plans, the building constructed by Zeta cost 30 percent more to build, and its
expenses for maintenance last year were twice those of the building constructed
by Alpha. Furthermore, the energy consumption of the Zeta building has been
higher than that of the Alpha building every year since its construction. Such data,
plus the fact that Alpha has a stable workforce with little employee turnover,
indicate that we should use Alpha Construction Company, rather than Zeta, for all
future building projects."
In his memo the vice president suggests that they should employ Alpha
Construction Company in place of Zeta for all future projects. He comes to this
conclusion by comparing the two companies after which he says that Zeta has
proved to be more expensive than Alpha. Moreover, according to him Alpha has a
stable workforce as well. However, the vice president does not make use of good
sense and logic in coming to this conclusion. In order to decide which company is
better he needs to make a proper survey of their works.
First of all, the vice president cites that the two buildings erected by these
construction companies ten years ago were is different regions. It is possible that
in the present times, the cost of construction has undergone a change.
Consequently, it is likely that Zeta is no more as expensive as it was ten years ago.
Moreover, since they were constructed in different places, the vice president
should not expect the same durability of the two buildings. In a span of ten years,
there could be many changes in a place, which would have an effect over the
buildings constructed over it. It is possible that the building constructed by Zeta
construction company has seen many adverse weather changes and natural
calamities than the building constructed by Alpha. It is evident that there would
be more wear and tear of the building that is exposed more to rains, snow, hail,
storms and earthquakes etc. The condition of a building after ten years should not
be a standard to measure the quality of the construction company.
If the building constructed by Zeta costs 30 percent more than that constructed
by Alpha, it does not indicate that Zeta is more expensive than Alpha. The cost of
constructing the building could have risen due to other factors like the cost of
brick and cement at that place. Moreover, the cost of a building also depends
upon the quality of material used in the building. It is likely that Zeta Construction
Company has installed the best material and has given high quality interiors to the
building. Therefore, even if the basic floor plan is the same, it is the kind of
material used that can make the cost of construction of one building higher than
that of the other.
The vice president gives the account of cost of maintenance of only the past one
year. Firstly, it is possible that in the previous years the building constructed by
Zeta has not demanded a high maintenance cost. Moreover, it is likely that the
building constructed by Alpha constructors has been renovated a few years back
and all the damaged parts have been replaced. Therefore, their maintenance cost
has gone down as compared to the other buildings'.
Similarly, the energy consumption of one building is different from that of

another building. It is possible that the energy consumption of the building
constructed by Zeta is more due to longer working hours. Moreover, it is also
possible that the people using the building have been careless in consuming
energy, which has resulted in more energy consumption.
If Alpha Construction Company has a stable workforce, it does not mean that Zeta
would not have a stable workforce. Further, the argument only concentrates on
these two construction companies. There could be other construction companies,
which could be better and less expensive than these companies. Moreover, it is
likely that many more good construction companies come up in future. Therefore,
the vice-president should not make a decision in haste, but should conduct a
proper study of all the companies before deciding which one could be the best in
future.
………………………………..

The following appeared in a memo from the president of Bower Builders, a
company that constructs new homes.
"A nationwide survey reveals that the two most desired home features are a
bathroom with a whirlpool tub and a large kitchen. Homes in a nearby
development built by our competitor, Domus Construction, have whirlpool tubs
and have sold much faster and at significantly higher prices than the average. To
increase our sales and profits, we should include whirlpool tubs and larger
kitchens as standard features in all our new homes. Since our recent buyers have
voiced no complaints about small yards, we can also increase profits by
decreasing the size of our yards."
In his memo, the president of Bower Builders suggests that they should include
whirlpool tubs and large kitchens in all their new homes in order to increase sales
and profits. His suggestion comes from the homes built by Domus Construction,
which have these features and have sold faster and at prices higher than average.
Further he suggests that they could decrease the size of yards since there have
been no complaints from buyers about having small yards. The president,
however, is mistaken in believing so and should look at the issue using logic and
reasoning.
Firstly, the president refers to a nationwide survey that people prefer whirlpool
tubs and large kitchens. However, since the scope of the survey is too large,
Bower Builders must refer to a more specific survey. They should consider the
demand of buyers in the area where they want to build homes. It is likely that in
some places, people do not prefer whirlpool tubs and large kitchens. People in
some parts of the nation could have a fancy for simpler and old styled homes
without these tubs and large kitchens. It is likely that due to the fast paced life of
people of a certain area, they do not spend too much time cooking in their
kitchens, due to which they would prefer smaller kitchens. The president should
keep in mind that even if the general nationwide survey indicates a particular
trend, there could be variation in the choice of buyers from place to place.
The president should not base his suggestion on the experience of another
construction company. It could be true that the houses of Domus Construction
have sold at higher prices and faster than average. However, it is possible that this
is not because they have included whirlpool tubs and large kitchens in their
homes. The prices of homes also depend upon the locations. If the homes
constructed by Domus Construction are located at a prime location, it is evident
that they will be sold fast and at a higher price. Moreover, Domus Construction
could be targeting rich people who need luxuries like the whirlpool tubs in their
homes. However, this may not be the case with all buyers. The president should
think logically about the location of their homes and the category of buyers that
would prefer those homes. Accordingly, it is possible that where they are
constructing homes, people do not want to invest in large kitchens and whirlpool
tubs.
Further, it can be said that selecting one design for all the homes is not a wise
decision to be taken by a construction company. Bower Builders should offer
variety in the homes that they build with different combinations of features in
different houses. As discussed above, the choice of buyers can vary. Some buyers
may desire large kitchens but may not want whirlpool tubs, while some may like
the opposite.
Lastly, there could be a large number of people who would not like to
compromise on the yard space for larger kitchens. In this age where there is
hardly any open space, people would desire to have open yards in their homes. If
recent customers have voiced no complaints about small yards, it is possible that
the builders misinterpret their demand and offer very small yards. Since there is
no mention of any specification in terms of area of the yard, it is possible that the
builders build smaller yards than those preferred by people. Therefore, the
president should not rely on the arbitrary data as is given by him in the argument.
It is evident from the discussion given above that the president does not consider
many key issues that need consideration before making such suggestions. The
argument given by the president proves to be unreasonable and illogical since it
does not take into consideration these important issues.
…………………………….

The following appeared in a memo from a budget planner in Sophia County.
"Census data indicate that the number of retired couples without children who
are moving into Sophia County is steadily rising; private schools in our county
report substantial increases in enrollment; and a statewide survey of parents
shows that over 10 percent now support the idea of home schooling instead of
public schooling funded by the county government. Such demographic trends
suggest that our county will not have to construct new school buildings and that
we can therefore decrease the budget for county-funded public schools."
The writer of the memo is of the view that the country will not require to build
school buildings and there will be a decrease in the budget for country-funded
public schools. This view is supported by the trends mentioned in the argument
that suggest that there is increased enrollment in private schools and home
schooling instead of public schools. However, this argument given by the writer is
not enough to prove his point of view. With a detailed analysis of the argument,
as given below, its incapability of supporting its stand gets highlighted which
makes it a weak and inappropriate argument.
The first evidence that the writer gives is that the number of retired couples
without children moving to Sophia Country is increasing steadily. The writer could
be indicating that there would be fewer school-going children in Sophia Country
in future. However, this assumption is questionable. It is likely that in future the
number of children in Sophia Country increases. Although the writer has given the
census of retired people moving to Sophia Country, he has not given an account
of the number of people with children moving into the place. There could be
many people having children already present in the country. Therefore, if the
number of retired people is rising, it does not indicate in any way that the number
of children in future will decrease.
Further, the writer claims that there is an increase in the enrollment in private
schools in the country. However, nowhere in the argument does he mention that
there is a decrease in the enrollment in private schools. Therefore, if there is an
increase in the number of children getting enrolled into private schools, it does
not necessarily mean that children are shifting from public school education to
private education. It is possible that there is an increase in the total number of
children in Sophia Country. Consequently, there could also be an increase in the
enrollment of children in public schools as well.
Once again, if more people are supporting the idea of home schooling instead of
public schooling, one cannot be sure if they are actually moving their children
from public schools to home schooling. Further, if 10 percent of parents are in
favor of home schooling, it is likely that more than 10 percent of parents still
prefer to send their children to public schools. Therefore, there could still be a
need of public schools in future and school buildings would need to be
constructed.
It is the country's administration that has to think about the education of the
society including the poor. It is only if public schooling is encouraged that the
poor will be able to educate their children. Therefore, there would be a
requirement of school buildings as well for instructions to be carried out.
Moreover, the budget in country-funded schools does not only include the money
spent on the construction of school buildings. The budget also includes the
salaries of all employees, maintenance of the school property and subsidies given
to children. Keeping this in mind, it should not be thought that with a decrease in
the number of buildings being constructed, the budget for state-funded schools
would also go down.
If there has been a decrease of the enrollment of students to public schools,

instead of reducing the budget for these schools, the reasons for the decrease in
enrolment should be found out. More funds must be generated to give complete
and high quality education so that more and more children get enrolled to these
schools. The writer of the argument ignores this aspect completely. It can be seen
in the discussion given above that he is not able to convince the reader about the
decrease in the budget of public schools. Due to this factor, his argument stands
weak and inconsistent.
……………………….

The following appeared in a magazine focusing on health and fitness.
"A recent study of several nutritional supplements showed that subjects who took
a daily pill containing luceen had significantly better vision of distant objects than
subjects in the study who took other nutritional supplements. Luceen appears
naturally in a tasty fruit that grows on the island of Bonopia, and very few
inhabitants of that island wear eyeglasses or other corrective lenses. Such
evidence suggests that people who develop vision problems should take regular
luceen supplements."
The writer of the given argument is of the view that people with vision problems
should take regular luceen supplements. He supports his stand by referring to a
study where it has been seen that people taking luceen had significantly better
vision of distant objects than others who did not take it. Further, very few
inhabitants of the island Bonopia, where it is found, wear eyeglasses. This
evidence however, is not sufficient to prove the writer's stand. In the discussion
given below, the argument is analyzed for its weaknesses and lack of logical
evidence.
To begin with, the writer refers to a study of nutritional supplements. However,

he is unable to specifically pinpoint the effect of luceen on the vision of subjects.
It can be assumed that along with luceen the subjects were on a regular intake of
other nutritional supplements. Therefore, the quality of vision could well be due
to the intake of other supplements than the intake of luceen. The good vision of
subjects can be attributed to other things as well. It is possible that they took a
more balanced diet as compared to the subjects who did not take luceen.
Moreover, it is possible that their lifestyle helps them to maintain better vision.
On the other hand, those who do not take luceen may have a lifestyle where they
watch a lot of television or read books in dim light. Such habits can have an
adverse effect on vision despite the intake of nutritional supplements. The
argument also does not mention the age of subjects on whom the study was
conducted. Since in old age the eyesight tends to deteriorate on its own, it is
possible that the subjects who developed vision problems were old. On the other
hand, those with a better vision were still young and thus had better eyesight.
Further, the study says that an intake of luceen helps in maintaining better vision
of distant objects. This does not prove that it can help to maintain good vision of
nearby objects as well. Besides there are many other vision problems suffered by
people. There is no evidence in the argument that luceen helps to prevent all
eyesight problems. Hence, it cannot be deduced that people who develop vision
problems should take regular luceen supplements. Moreover, there is also no
evidence given by the writer that luceen can cure these defects. Luceen may have
certain properties that prevent vision problems, but if it can effectively cure these
problems or not is not known from the argument. Therefore, the writer should
not make farfetched conclusions that people with vision problems should take
luceen supplements.
There may be very few inhabitants of Bonopia who wear eyeglasses. However,
this does not indicate that they are on a regular intake of luceen. Nor does it
prove that they do not have any vision problems. Firstly, even if luceen is to be
found on the island, it is possible that all inhabitants are not eating the fruit
containing luceen. There could be many people who refrain from eating it and still
have good visions. Secondly, it is possible that the inhabitants of Bonopia suffer
from vision problems but do not wear eyeglasses due to lack of medical facilities
or due to their personal habits and preferences.
Clearly, the argument is insufficient to provide an explanation for many related

questions. The writer comes to his conclusion without proper evidence to prove
that luceen is actually beneficial for vision problems. The writer should therefore
provide logical explanation of his stand with proper reasoning and convincing
evidence in order to make his argument reliable.
……………………………

The following appeared in a memo from the manager of television station KICK.
"A nationwide survey reveals that a sizeable majority of men would like to see
additional sports programs on television. After television station WACK increased
its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area
almost doubled. To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase
company profits, KICK should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more
sports coverage."
In his memo, the manager of the television station KICK suggests that they should
broadcast more sports programs in order to increase the viewer-ship as well as
company profits. This suggestion comes after the manager observes that such a
change made by the television station WACK had increased their television
audience. He also refers to a survey where many men agree that they would like
to see sports programs on television. The manager however, is mistaken and
makes hasty conclusions. The success of a television station depends upon many
things and he must consider this before giving such suggestions.
The nationwide survey that the manager refers to does not give a proper idea of
the number of people preferring sports programs on television. Without any
proper data the result of the survey can be misunderstood. It only mentions that
a sizable majority of men would like to see sports programs. However, if this
sizable majority of men is large enough to affect the viewer-ship or not, cannot be
known unless the total number of people is known. It is likely that the number of
people who do not wish to see sports programs is more than those who want to
see the programs.
Secondly, the survey is conducted only on men and seems to ignore a large
section of the society, which includes women, children and the old. Men are only
a part of the society, however, a large section of the viewer-ship of television
programs comprises of women and children also. If majority of men are
interested in sports programs, the women, children and the old may not be
interested in the same. In such a case, if the television station KICK decides to
broadcast more sports programs, it might lose a major part of its audience, hence
affecting its profits.
The success of the television station WACK can be attributed to many factors that
are ignored by the manager in his argument. If the sports programs relayed by
this television station have doubled the share of audience, it could be because of
some ongoing sports events which are extremely popular. However, if there are
no popular events going on at a particular time, it is likely that the sports
programs do not find a large audience. Moreover, it is possible that the area
where WACK relays its programs comprises majority of young college students.
However, if KICK has to broadcast any sports related programs, it must first make
a proper statistical survey of the audience in its area. It is only if there are many
young boys and girls who are interested in such programs that the viewer-ship of
the television station will increase.
Further, the increase in the number of audience also depends upon the quality of
programs being relayed. The programs that are broadcasted should not only have
an interesting subject, but it should also be presented well to its audience. If the
audience would like to watch sports programs and the television station does not
present it in an interesting and gripping manner, it will not attract many viewers.
Similarly, if the audience is interested in watching football and the television
station broadcasts an event of wrestling, it will again not increase the share of its
audience.
Clearly, the manager has not thought of these related issues that can have a great
impact on the popularity of a television station. He should not expect to increase
the company's share of profits simply by following the strategy followed by
another television station. Instead, he must consider the above given discussion
and think logically before giving any suggestions.
……………………….

The following appeared in a memo from the director of a large group of hospitals.
"In a laboratory study of liquid antibacterial hand soaps, a concentrated solution

of Nadasept killed 40 percent more bacteria than the liquid hand soaps currently
used in our hospitals. During a subsequent test of Nadasept at our hospital in
Saluda, that hospital reported significantly fewer cases of patient infection than
did any of the other hospitals in our group. Therefore, to prevent serious patient
infections, we should supply Nadasept at all hand washing stations throughout
our hospital system."
The director of the memo is of the view that Nadasept is a better hand washing
solution that kills 40 percent more bacteria and thus should be used in their group
of hospitals to prevent patient infections. He mentions that one of their hospitals
where Nadasept was tested has reported fewer cases of patient infection than
other hospitals. However, the director does not provide enough evidence to
prove that Nadasept would actually be beneficial to prevent infections. A detailed
analysis of the argument given by the director exposes its inability to support the
decision effectively.
If the laboratory study mentioned by the director has to be believed, a

concentrated solution of Nadasept is more effective than the soap currently used
by the hospitals since it kills more bacteria. However, there are certain loopholes
that make the reader believe that Nadasept may not be a perfect replacement of
other soaps. Firstly, the sample of Nadasept that is tested is mentioned to be a
concentrated solution. A concentrated solution would definitely be more active
than a dilute solution. It is not known if Nadasept would be provided in different
hospitals in concentrated form or not. Moreover, if the soap currently used is also
used in concentrated form, it might have the same effect. Further, it can be said
that Nadasept is only compared to the soaps used currently in the hospitals.
However, there could be other brands of liquid hand washing solutions in the
market, which are more effective than Nadasept. Hence, it may not be a perfect
replacement of the soap currently being used.
The result of the laboratory study mentions the bacteria killing properties of
Nadasept. However, the director does not mention any other effects of the
solution. There are many other factors that should be considered before replacing
the current soap solution by Nadasept. For example, it is likely that since this
solution is stronger than others, it might be harsh on the skin. Hence it might
result in dryness, irritation, allergy or other such problems. Further, the solution
needs to be safe to be used by children etc. as well and should not cause any
irritation in eyes. Since the soap solution is to be used by the staff as well as
patients, it should be safe to be used by both: adults and children.
The director further says that in their hospital in Saluda, where Nadasept was
used, there were fewer cases of patient infection than in other hospitals.
However, this could be a mere co-incidence. There are many other causes of
patient infection and the director should therefore look into all the factors leading
to it before forming an opinion about Nadasept. It is likely that the general health
and hygiene observed in the hospital at Saluda is better than in other hospitals. It
could be cleaner and there could be better facilities of disposal of hospital wastes
in the hospital at Saluda as compared to other hospitals. It is also likely that their
staff is trained on how to prevent infections. There is also a possibility that there
are fewer patients suffering from diseases that can be spread through bacteria. In
that case, there would be lesser bacteria causing infection in the hospital of
Saluda than in other hospitals.
The director should look into all these factors that result in patient infections. His
argument seems to be lacking in reason and logic to prove that the use of
Nadasept would prevent patient infection. He should therefore revise all factors
responsible for spreading infections and conduct a detailed test in order to find
out how effective Nadasept is to prevent infections.
………………………………..

The following appeared in a memo from the economic minister of the small
country Paucia.
"Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country

Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year. To
increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to
cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops. Such
high yields of rice will also improve our country's balance of trade by enabling us
to begin exporting it."
In his memo, the economic minister of Paucia suggests that their farmers should
be encouraged to cultivate a new variety of rice rather than other traditional
crops. He says that the farmers in Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last
year than in any other year by cultivating the new variety of seed. Hence, by
exporting the surplus, Paucia would be able to improve its balance of trade.
However, the suggestion of the economic minister is not supported with logic and
reasoning since there are many more things that can affect the yield of a crop.
There is no proof given in his argument that Paucia will surely be able to improve
their balance of trade by cultivating rice instead of their traditional crops.
To begin with, the writer affirms that a new variety of seed has helped in 80
percent increase in rice production last year than in previous years in the country
of Abundia. However, the increase in production can be attributed to other
factors as well. For example, it is possible that in the previous years Abundia had
faced unfavorable weather, which resulted in famine. There could be more land
brought under cultivation than previous years that has seen an increase in
production. Moreover, it is likely that the farmers have used better pesticides and
fertilizers that have increased their yield. It cannot be said for sure that the
increase in production of rice has been only due to the new variety of seeds.
Therefore, the minister should not rely on superficial facts, but must study the
actual cause of increase in production.
Considering that the production of rice increased in Abundia due to the new
variety of seeds used by farmers, does not indicate that the same will be true for
Paucia as well. Even if Abundia is a neighboring county, there could be a great
difference in the soil of the two countries. While the soil of Abundia could be
fertile and favorable for rice production, it is possible that the soil of Paucia is only
suitable for traditional crops. In that case, if the new variety of seeds of rice is
grown in Paucia, it would not result in increased production since the land is not
suitable for production of rice. Moreover, there could be a great difference in the
climate of both places. It is likely that the weather of Paucia is not suitable for rice
production. Hence, even if an improved variety of seeds of rice were used by
farmers, it would not result in a high yield.
As discussed earlier, it is not only the variety of seeds that helps in increasing
production. It is likely that the condition of farmers in Paucia is very poor and they
cannot introduce new technique in cultivating their fields. Therefore, in order to
increase the production of crops in Paucia, the farmers should be given good
fertilizers and pesticides. They should be provided with good means of irrigation
as well as modern techniques to plough their land. With such changes, the
production of traditional crops can see a manifold increase. Therefore, Paucia
need not depend upon a new variety of seeds to increase their production of
crops and improve their balance of trade, but can do so with increase in the
production of their traditional crops as well.
It is evident that the economic minister ignores all the above-mentioned factors
responsible for the yield of a crop. He must, therefore, alter his argument by using
logic and reasoning so that his argument is more convincing and sensible.
………………………………

The following appeared in a memo from the chief operating officer of the Presto
Manufacturing Company.
"Since orders for our major product increased by over 200 percent last quarter,
we should promptly expand production by building a new manufacturing plant in
Summit City. Summit City is the ideal location for the new plant because it has low
property taxes, extensive blocks of land available for immediate purchase, and a
large number of residents who are not currently employed."
The chief operating officer of Presto Manufacturing Company is of the view that
they should build a new manufacturing plant and expand their production since
the orders of their major products have increased to a great extent. He suggests
building a new plant in Summit City and gives certain reasons to support his point
of view. However, he seems to be making a judgment without giving it a logical
thought. In order to make the argument convincing the chief operating officer
should consider the following discussion and amend his argument accordingly.
In the beginning, he refers to an increase of orders of their major product by over

200 percent in the last quarter. If he is mentioning the quarter of a year, it must
be brought to his notice that this is a very short time to observe the trend of
orders. If the orders of certain products have shot up in just three months, it is
likely to drop just as soon. There could be some reasons that have resulted in the
sudden increase in the orders of their products, which the chief operating officer
should consider before taking the decision. For example, he must find out if the
increase in the order is temporary or it is likely to remain so in future. If the
increase in orders is related to some change in fashion, or is due to the latest fad,
it might just change with another change in trends. The increase of orders could
also be a result of some ongoing events; for example, a sports event encourages
the people to order more sports goods. However, when the event is over, people
stop ordering for the same. Therefore, building a new manufacturing unit relying
on a sudden increase in the orders in the past quarter of a year only proves lack of
judgment on the part of the officer.
With the reasons given in the argument, it seems that Summit City is an ideal
location for building a new manufacturing plant. However, there are many other
things related to the location that have a great effect on the success of a plant
that have been ignored by the officer. Firstly, if the property taxes are low and
there are great blocks of land available for purchase, it suggests that Summit City
is not a very popular location for commercial use. It is likely that not many
manufacturing units have opened in this city due to the difficulties that can arise
in such a place. For example, it could be very far away from the main city and
would require transportation of goods. Moreover, it is likely that Summit City is
not connected to other places by highways or good roads and transportation of
goods is all the more difficult.
Further, the officer points out that a large number of the residents of Summit City
are currently unemployed. He probably suggests employing them in the new unit
as their workforce. However, it is not mentioned if the residents are educated
enough to understand the manufacturing work. These residents would not be
trained enough and it would require a great amount of time and effort to make
them learn the skills of working on the new unit. This can increase their costs of
production and delay the production process. The officer does not seem to pay
attention on the need of training of new workforce and simply jumps to his
conclusions.
In a hurry to build new unit in order to meet the increasing demand, the chief
operating officer gives a suggestion that does not have a strong backing. As
discussed above, his argument fails to explain certain points which are very
important to consider before opening a new unit. He must, therefore, give it a
second thought and make appropriate changes to his argument.
…………………………….

The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that makes
breakfast cereals.
"In a recent study, subjects who ate soybeans at least five times per week had
significantly lower cholesterol levels than subjects who ate no soy products. By
fortifying our Wheat-O cereal with soy protein, we can increase sales by appealing
to additional consumers who are concerned about their health. This new version
of Wheat-O should increase company profits and, at the same time, improve the
health of our customers."
The president of the company that makes breakfast cereals gives an argument in
which he advocates fortifying soy protein in their cereal Wheat-O. This suggestion
comes from the recent study that points out the health benefits of soybeans and
the president expects to increase profits since the cereal would attract customers
who are concerned about their health. Fortifying Wheat-O with soy proteins
would probably make it more nutritive, but it is possible that this does not
increase the company profits as expected by the president because the sale of a
product depends on many other factors. The argument given by the president is
not completely convincing since it ignores many important factors related to the
sale of the cereal.
First of all, the study mentioned in the beginning of the argument is subject to
criticism of the reader. It does not give a clear indication that lower cholesterol
levels are due to an intake of soybeans. The president does not give any statistical
basis to his study that makes the reader wonder about the actual number of
subjects who have observed a lower level of cholesterol. Further, the subjects
who ate soybeans at least five times per week and have experienced a lower level
of cholesterol could probably be on a fat free and oil free diet in general. On the
other hand, those who had higher levels of cholesterol could probably be eating
fatty and oily foods. Since the diet of all the subjects is not known and may not be
uniform, the effect of soybeans on the cholesterol levels cannot be pinpointed.
Moreover, the argument also does not mention the cholesterol levels of its
subjects as observed before they consumed soybeans. It is likely that the ones
who ate soybeans already had a lower level of cholesterol than those who did not
have soybeans. Therefore, the role of soybeans in reducing cholesterol levels is
not significant enough to include it in the breakfast cereal.
There could be many people who are concerned about their health. However, this
does not prove that they would prefer the new version of Wheat-O. Firstly, the
customers would buy this cereal only if they are aware of the benefits of soy
protein. If the people were not informed about the effect of soy protein on the
cholesterol levels, this change in the cereal would not make a difference to them.
Further, it is possible that there are few people with high cholesterol levels and
therefore not many customers are concerned about lowering their cholesterol
levels. Since people are concerned about their health, it is possible that they
resort to other ways of maintaining good health and lowering cholesterol. For
example, instead of taking processed foods and cereals, they could prefer eating
raw fruits and salads. Moreover, it is possible that people believe in exercising
and reducing fat and cholesterol rather than taking a breakfast cereal that is rich
in soy protein. In that case too fortification of Wheat-O with soy protein would
not make any difference to its sales.
In the end the president says that the cereal would improve the health of their
customers. However, the customers cannot rely only on the breakfast cereal to
improve their health and will have to maintain a lifestyle of good diet and regular
exercise. Moreover, the president also ignores the possibility of other breakfast
cereal brands in the market, which could have same or more nutritive value than
Wheat-O. In that case Wheat-O would have to face competition in the market.
The president ignores the preference of customers for other brands rather than
Wheat-O.
It can therefore be seen that the sale of Wheat-O is not sure to rise with
fortification of the cereal. The president should take a clue from the discussion
given above and consider all related aspects and present a better argument that
is more convincing and realistic.
………………………………

The following appeared in a letter from the mayor of Tudor City.
"After a major airline chose Yorkville as its regional flight hub, the number of
businesses in that city almost doubled and local tax revenue increased by 50
percent. In addition, as travel to Yorkville became easier, most respondents to a
survey of the country's top executives identified Yorkville as a desirable place to
transact business. To secure efficient transportation for Tudor City and stimulate
our local economy, we should build a new airport, like the one in Yorkville, that is
suitable for a regional flight hub."
The mayor of Tudor City is highly encouraged by the regional flight hub built in
Yorkville that has increased the number of businesses as well as tax revenues in
the city. He says that most of the top executives find Yorkville a place to expand
business. Taking a clue from this, he suggests that a similar regional flight hub be
built in Tudor City in order to improve its economy and transportation. The
argument seems convincing at the first glance, but it loses this convincing power
once it is analyzed carefully. The following discussion makes the argument given
by the mayor illogical and baseless.
First of all, the mayor mentions that the businesses in Yorkville have doubled and
tax revenue increased by 50 percent after the regional flight hub was built.
However, until actual figures are known, this could be misleading data. It is
possible that the actual increase in businesses and tax revenues is not significant
enough to translate into economic success.
The mayor seems to believe that the boost in the economy of Yorkville is only due
to the new regional flight hub built in the city. Where it could be a reason of the
increase in the businesses, it might not be the only reason behind this increase.
There are many other factors that are responsible for attracting businessmen to a
city other than its facilities of regional flights. It is possible that Yorkville is an
upcoming city and is very suitable for establishing business. On the other hand
Tudor City might not be an attractive place to establish business. Therefore,
building a new regional hub might make traveling easier to the city, but it might
not attract many businessmen.
The increase in the local tax revenue of Yorkville could be due to many reasons
other than increase in business. For example, it is possible that the
administration, which was not very efficient before, has become strict in the
collection of revenue. It is also possible that there is a change in the laws
regarding tax revenues and the city has started levying more tax from its people.
Moreover, it is also possible that tax revenue from business does not form a
major part of the total tax revenue of the city but is due to taxes from other areas
like employed residents and property of residents. All these possibilities indicate
that the increase in local tax revenue could be due to other reasons and not due
to the increase in businesses.
The mayor refers to a survey where most of the top executives expressed a desire
to transact business in Yorkshire since it has become easier to travel. However,
this may not be the case with Tudor City. It is possible that very few executives
find Tudor City attractive enough even if a regional flight hub is built there.
Moreover, it is also possible that the survey is not conducted on all the
executives. It is possible that a large number of executives who have not been
included in the survey have different thoughts and are not affected by the new
regional flight hub.
Considering that the boost in the economy of Yorkville is due to the regional flight
hub, it must be understood that Tudor City might not have the same effect of a
flight hub in its city. Tudor City might not be an upcoming area where there are
huge prospects of businesses. It is clear that the mayor does not consider the
points given in the discussion given above. Building a new airport for regional
flights involves a huge amount of money. Therefore, the mayor must think
logically about the benefits of building a new airport and give more authentic
reasons to support his view.
…………………………

Blue City Highway had always been notorious for its tight curves and poor
roadway visibility, and the accident rate there was generally very high. Last year
the highway was redesigned to broaden the curves and improve roadway
visibility. Drivers report that they now feel much safer driving on the highway and
that the redesign has been a big improvement. But the number of accidents on
the highway has not been significantly lower in the six months since the redesign
than it was in the six months before the redesign. Therefore, the redesign clearly
did not improve the curves and roadway visibility enough to make a difference.
The writer of the given argument holds the view that redesigning of Blue City
Highway has been of no use since there has not been a decrease in the number of
accidents on the highway. He says that broadening of curves and improving
roadway visibility has made the drivers feel much safer, but the number of
accidents in the past six months has not been any less than before. He thus
concludes that the redesign has not made any difference. However, the writer
seems to ignore many other factors that could result in accidents on highways.
The argument he presents is lacking in logic since it does not take into account the
complete picture.
First of all, the writer does not mention if most of the accidents on the Blue City
Highway occurred during day or at night. The accidents that occur due to poor
visibility on the highway could occur only at night. However, there is no proof of
this fact in the argument given by the writer. Therefore, there are equal or even
more chances that these accidents occur in broad daylight. In that case the
accidents have little to do with poor visibility of the highway. Therefore, the initial
assumption that these accidents occurred due to poor roadway visibility is
doubtful. It is evident that by improving the visibility, the accidents happening
during day cannot be avoided. Similarly, the assumption that these accidents
occurred due to tight curves is also doubtful. It is likely that even if there are such
curves in the highway, these accidents do not occur due to them. There could be
enough signboards warning of steep curves on the highway to make the drivers
cautious. Therefore, the writer should probe into other probable reasons of
accidents on the highway.
If there has not been a decrease in the number of accidents occurring on the
highway, it does not indicate that the broadening of curves and improving
visibility has not made any improvement. It is possible that there are no accidents
due to these reasons but due to other factors which the writer is silent about.
There could be many accidents due to drunken driving. It is possible that the
highway is frequented by people after visiting parties and pubs and thus they are
drunk while they are driving. In this case the accidents would not stop occurring
even if the highway has been redesigned.
Further, it can be said that there is exceptionally heavy traffic on Blue City
Highway. It is likely that the highway is the only way of commuting for people and
it experiences heavy traffic overall. In that case, the accidents could be occurring
due to this heavy traffic and not due to the curves or visibility. Similarly, the traffic
could also be too fast resulting in a number of accidents.
The writer also does not say anything about the condition of the highway in his
argument. It is possible that the highway needs repair in many places and is full of
potholes. Therefore, a speeding vehicle could meet with surprises with these
bumps existing on the highway that could result in accidents. Moreover, the
writer does not say anything about the training and license of the drivers in the
city. If there are many young drivers driving without license, it is likely that these
accidents occur due their carelessness.
It is evident that there are many other factors that can be responsible for the
number of accidents on the highway. By ignoring these factors the writer displays
a lack of broad outlook towards the issue. Therefore, it can be said that
redesigning of the highway could have improved the highway, but this does not
promise to avoid all the accidents on the highway.
……………………………….

One kind of brain-scanning device is used by doctors to monitor normal as well as
abnormal activity in a patient's brain. The device provides precise measurements
of blood flow in the brain, a known indicator of how the brain is working.
Unfortunately, the device requires patients to remain completely still with their
heads in the scanning machine, which makes a very loud noise. Under these
uncomfortable conditions, it is doubtful that doctors can get accurate
measurements. A new head-mounted device that measures eye movements
rather than blood flow and allows patients to move around will undoubtedly
provide better brain measurements. Thus, the new head-mounted device should
replace the older device at all hospitals and research institutions.
The writer of the argument given above is of the view that in all hospitals and
research institutions the old device used to scan brains should be replaced with
the new device. He is of the view that the old device may not give accurate
measurements since it does not allow the patient to move during the scan and is
also very noisy. He suggests that a head-mounted device that measures eye
movements and also allows the patient to move would be more accurate.
However, the writer of this argument does not make use of logic while giving his
suggestion. He completely disapproves of the old device without going into the
details of the method of scanning.
First of all, the writer disapproves of the older device because it requires the
patient to remain still while the scan is in progress in order to record the
measurements. The second reason that makes him say that it is uncomfortable is
that the device makes a loud noise. However, he does not bother to find out the
precautions used by the doctors while conducting the scan. It is likely that the
doctors use all measures to make the patient comfortable and relaxed before
they perform the scan. For example, in order to lower the noise made by the
machine, the doctors could use some earmuffs or soundproof headgear so that
the patient is not disturbed while their heads are in the scanning machine.
Similarly, there could be measures taken to make the patient still while scanning
his brain activity. For example, in order to make the patient still, he could be
made to lie down in a comfortable position. In case the patients are still not
comfortable, or are very young to remain still, the doctors could use some
sedatives in order to make them sleep for a short while so that the scan can be
conducted without any body movement. In that case, the loud noise would also
not bother the procedure of the scan. The writer does not make an effort to find
out such solutions that can make the procedure of scanning with the older device
comfortable and simply suggests using another device. However, this suggestion
lacks logic since it may not be a perfect replacement.
He says that the new device that would measure the movements of the eye
instead of blood flow would be a better replacement of the older device.
However, the writer ignores that this new device could probably not record the
brain activity as effectively as the older device. The movement of the eye may
help in observing certain activities of the brain, but it may not be a complete scan.
It is possible that this scan ignores many significant brain activities which can be
recorded only by measuring the blood flow as is done by the older device. In
other words, while the older device provides a comprehensive scan, the new
device could only be helpful in scanning a part of the brain. Therefore, it might
not solve the very purpose of scan completely.
The writer does not give enough evidence to prove that this new machine would
give better results if the patient were allowed to move more freely. Moreover, he
does not mention if this device makes any noise or not. That is why the reader is
left doubting that this new machine would also be making a loud noise, which is
uncomfortable for the patients. Therefore, the writer is unable to support his
suggestion with logical reasoning.
The discussion given above proves that the writer is not able to prove that the
new device would be better and more accurate than the older one. Thus, he must
give it another thought and amend his argument to make it reasonable.
………………………………

The following appeared in a health newsletter.
"According to a recent study, people with many social ties report catching colds
less often than do people with few social ties. Consequently, researchers
conclude that having an active social life probably helps strengthen the immune
system. The researchers note that catching a cold - one of a family of highly
contagious viruses - gives the cold-sufferer temporary immunity to that virus in
the future, but not to the many other related viruses. Merely being exposed to a
new cold virus, however, is not enough for a person to catch a cold, since a strong
immune system can successfully fight off some new viruses. Thus, in order to
prevent catching a cold, people should strengthen their immune systems by
becoming more active socially."
The given argument is written by the writer to put forward his view that in order
to prevent colds people should become more socially active. He supports this
view by a recent study in which researchers concluded that people with many
social ties had a strong immune system since they caught cold fewer times than
those who had few social ties. However, the writer does not give logical reasoning
and evidence to prove his point. Therefore, his argument can be called weak and
insufficient to convince the reader.
First of all, the writer says that people with many social ties reported catching
cold lesser times than those with fewer social ties. It is thus concluded that social
activity helps in improving immune system. However, the writer does not explain
how many social ties are enough to help prevent colds. The reader is left to
wonder what the writer means by 'many' social ties and 'few' social ties since he
does not define it well. It is not known as to how many people a person should be
interacting with in order to be called socially active. Therefore, this idea of the
writer remains confusing and weakly explained. Further, the study can be
criticized to be lacking of statistical data. It is only when there is enough statistical
data to prove its conclusion that its result can be considered reliable.
The writer mentions that the researchers have concluded that more social activity
probably strengthens immune systems. The use of the word 'probably' makes the
reader believe that the researchers are doubtful and are only guessing by what is
observed generally. Therefore, the writer does not affirm that the immune system
gets strengthened for sure due to active social ties. This leaves a place of doubt in
the minds of the readers as well and therefore the argument does not seem
convincing.
The writer ignores other reasons that result in catching colds as well as preventing
them. Immunity gained by people meeting many others could be just one of those
reasons. However, other causes of colds and their effects on people with more
social ties should be studied before coming to any conclusion. First of all, it is
possible that those who are socially active are in contact with those people who
do not carry any viruses of colds, whereas those meeting fewer people are in
contact with people suffering from colds. Therefore, the results of the study are
doubtful. Further, a person could be naturally allergic to colds, and it is possible
that an active social life makes no difference to his immunity. The environment
also makes a lot of difference since a dusty and unhygienic environment would
breed more viruses. Therefore, if people frequented this areas it is possible that
they catch cold more often. Colds are also affected by weather changes. It has
been seen that in rainy season or in winters, people are more prone to colds
despite their social inactivity. However, the writer does not mention any of these
factors and their effect on the people in the study.
The writer says that catching colds helps in building up a temporary immunity to
the virus. However, he does not mention how long this immunity can last.
Therefore, the reader is left to believe that it could be a short-term immunity
after which the immune system cannot fight the virus anymore to prevent colds.
Moreover, if the immune system is not able to fight an old virus, its ability to fight
a new virus will be even lesser, which increases the chances of catching colds by
being exposed to a new virus.
The writer simply proves his lack of judgment in his argument. Moreover, he
ignores other factors causing colds and thus it can be said that he presents an
insufficient and unconvincing argument.
………………………

The following editorial appeared in a newspaper in the country of Solaria.
"The Eliot Valley region was primarily agricultural twenty years ago. In the past
twenty years, however, many computer-chip manufacturers have opened
factories there. A recent study found that water pollution in the region was worse
than in any other region in the country. Moreover, the computer-chip factories,
which use large quantities of water to manufacture the chips, are probably
responsible for the low levels of water in the region's lakes and reservoirs.
Therefore, if the region's computer-chip makers had limits placed on the amount
of water they could use, water quality would improve."
The writer of the editorial says that in Eliot Valley, which was agricultural twenty
years ago, many computer-chip manufacturers have established themselves. He is
of the view that computer-chip factories use large levels of water and are
responsible for low water levels in their water bodies. They should thus be
restricted to use water so that water pollution can be checked. The argument
however is not cogent if analyzed in detail. The following discussion proves the
lack of logic and reasoning on the part of the writer in his argument.
The writer says that the water pollution in Eliot Valley was worse than in any
other region in the country. However, he does not mention if the water pollution
level is alarming or just minimal. Since he only gives a rough comparison with the
water pollution of other regions of Solaria, it does not bring out the true picture
of the level of pollution. It is likely that the water in other regions is very clean and
thus there is very little pollution in Eliot Valley, which makes it worse than any
other region. If only the writer had mentioned how grave the situation of water
pollution was could the reader be convinced.
Further, the writer seems to ignore all the factors responsible for water pollution.
Water pollution could be caused by its misuse by the residents. It is possible that
the residents throw their wastes and wash clothes in the region's lakes. Water
pollution could also occur due to inadequate measures taken at the catchments
areas of these water bodies. It would be unfair to hold the computer-chip
factories completely responsible for the condition of water pollution in the area.
The writer mentions that it is these factories, which are probably responsible for
low levels of water in the reservoirs and lakes since they use a large amount of
water. The use of the word 'probably', however, creates a doubt in the minds of
the readers. The low levels of water in the water bodies of the region could be
due to other reasons as well. For example, the residents could be misusing water
and in turn wasting a lot of fresh water. It is also possible that there have been
very few rains in the region; that accounts for a low water level. Moreover, it is
possible that due to very hot weather conditions, a lot of fresh water gets
evaporated from lakes and reservoirs. The write does not probe into such
possibilities and simply holds the factories responsible for the low levels of water.
The conclusion as given by the writer is questionable. According to him, if the

factories had limits placed on the amount of water they could use, the quality of
water would improve. He misses the point here that with limited use of water,
only the quantity of water used would be affected. However, this could not
ensure a better quality of water in the region. It is possible that the limited water
they use is polluted more than before and the concentration of contamination
has increased. Therefore, it would not make a difference in the quality of water in
the region. The writer must understand that by putting limits on the use of water
only the quantity being used could be affected and not the quality.
It is evident that the writer has not thoughtfully presented the argument. It is
because of lack of reasoning and logic that the argument contains many
loopholes. Therefore, the writer must revise his argument and amend all
loopholes by referring to the discussion given above.
………………………….

The following appeared in an editorial in the Seatown newspaper.
"Seatown has a large port exclusively for fishing boats, whose owners pay fees for
the upkeep of the docks and for facilities for cleaning engines and repairing nets.
In recent years, declining fish populations have decreased fishing revenue and
forced many owners to stop fishing altogether. As a result, the port has a high
vacancy rate and port managers are considering allowing pleasure boats,
including cruise ships and other large vessels, to use the port in order to increase
revenue. But allowing pleasure boats into the port would be a mistake, because
the fishing boats would be forced out of the port. We should preserve the port for
the fishing fleet, which, unlike pleasure boats, contributes to the prosperity of
Seatown."
The writer of the given argument is of the view that in order to increase revenue,
allowing pleasure boats into the port of Seatown would force the fishing boats
out of the port. He believes that this would be a mistake since fishing boats
contribute to the prosperity of Seatown and should therefore be preserved. The
argument seems to be convincing at the first glance, but a detailed analysis
exposes its flaws and limitations to support the stand taken by the writer.
First of all, the writer believes that allowing pleasure boats and cruise ships would
increase revenues which have been on a decline since many fishing owners have
stopped fishing. However, including these ships also includes a lot of initial costs
that the writer does not consider. Moreover, it is possible that these cruise ships
and pleasure boats are not successful to attract tourists, which would again mean
a decline in revenues, as against the expectations of the port managers. It is also
likely that the decline in the population of fish is due to water pollution or some
disease that has infected the population of fish. In that case, fishing would not be
profitable even if these boats were not forced out of the port. Therefore, the
decision about replacing the fishing fleet by pleasure boats might not prove to be
as successful as expected by the managers and the writer.
Secondly, it cannot be said that allowing pleasure boats would force the fishing
boats out of the port. The writer says that the port has a high vacancy rate due to
which the port managers are considering allowing cruise ships and pleasure boats.
It is possible that there is enough space on the port to adjust fishing boats as well
as pleasure boats and cruise ships in it. Since the writer does not give any account
of the number of fishing boats or other boats on the port as well as the available
vacant space, it makes the reader doubt if allowing pleasure boats would force
the fishing boats out of the port. It makes enough sense if it is believed that there
is sufficient vacant space on the port and thus the fishing boats need not be
forced out.
The writer is of the view that pleasure boats do not contribute to the prosperity
of Seatown. However, the decision of allowing pleasure boats could be profitable
since it could attract a number of tourists to the port. This would not only
increase the revenue of the port, but the overall business around the port and in
Seatown would get a boost. This means that the decision could actually prove to
be profitable for Seatown. Forcing out the fishing boats could prove to be
beneficial in another way as well. The owners of fishing boats had stopped fishing
because of declining population of fish. This decline of population of fish could be
because of excessive fishing by too many boats into the port. Once these boats
are forced out of the port it would help in increasing the fish population once
again. Therefore, it would again make the port a possible fishing point and it could
regain its lost prosperity by resuming its fishing fleet once again.
It is evident from the discussion given above that in view of declining revenues
from fishing fleet, the port managers would inevitably consider alternate
measures to secure revenues. Moreover, allowing cruise ships and pleasure boats
might actually prove to be beneficial to the port management as well as economy
of Seatown, which would in turn contribute to its prosperity. The argument
therefore proves to be lacking in logic, which gives way to its limitations, and
makes it insufficient to support the writer's stand.
……………………………

The following appeared in a Brenton newspaper.
"The Brenton power plant draws water from Scott's River for its cooling system
and releases the warmed water back into the river. The town council
recommends that the plant install a more efficient cooling system that uses less
water, claiming it will be more environmentally sound. However, in Uptown,
where the new system is used, a study found that the complex network of pipes
in the new system tends to accumulate algae. The build up of algae can be
avoided by scrubbing the pipes, which is costly, or by adding an herbicide to the
water in the pipes to prevent algae accumulation. But water containing the
herbicide cannot be released back into the river and it is known that low water
levels can harm river ecosystems accustomed to higher levels. Therefore, Brenton
power plant should continue to use the old cooling system exclusively."
The argument given above advocates the use of old cooling system by the
Brenton power plant instead of the new system and the writer mentions the
reasons for this suggestion. A single reading of the argument makes the reader
feel convinced since the argument seems to be logical, however, a closer look at
the use of logic explains the loopholes in it that the writer must be reminded of.
The following discussion exposes the shortfalls of the argument that question the
logic used in it.
First of all, the need of a new system for cooling is not clearly evident from the
argument. The writer does not provide any evidence to prove how the old system
is not environmentally sound. The water released back into the river is of the
same quantity and there is no mention of any contamination in it. Therefore,
neither is it consuming too much water, nor is it polluting it. The water released is
only warmed up due to the procedure, which might not be suitable for all aquatic
life. It is possible that the water cools off soon after it is released back into the
river. Moreover, there can be other solutions to cool off the water. For example,
it could be collected in a separate tank to cool off before releasing it into the
river. Hence, the old system would not cause any environmental hazards and
would also maintain the purity of water.
Considering that the old system is not environmentally sound, the writer does not
approve of the new system being used in Uptown and gives reasons to support
his stand. However, it is possible that the new system is a good alternate since the
writer ignores its benefits and concentrates only on a narrow aspect of its
demerits. First of all, there could be other solutions to avoid the accumulation of
algae as is seen in the complex system of pipes as used in Uptown. It is possible
that the plant in Uptown is built in a limited space that has resulted in a complex
system of pipes in the plant. Instead of installing a complex system of pipes, the
Brenton power plant could use the new system by removing these complexities in
the pipes or straightening most of the pipes on a larger area in order to reduce
algae accumulation.
If the new system requires addition of a herbicide in water to reduce algae, the
writer does not venture into finding a solution to avoid releasing this water into
the river. First of all it is possible that the new system does not require large
quantities of water for cooling. Therefore, if this water is not released back into
the river, it is possible that it does not lower the level of the river to the extent
that it harms the ecosystems accustomed to higher levels of water. Further, it
could be considered to purify the contaminated water by filtering the wastes or
adding certain chemicals that neutralize the effect of herbicide and make the
water clean before releasing it into the river. In this way, the water can be
released into the river without posing a threat to the environment as well as
aquatic life.
Clearly, the writer does not consider the options as discussed above. He does not
give a foolproof argument that supports the use of the old system over the new
system. The discussion given above however, would help the writer to take into
consideration the various possibilities and options, and help him to form a more
convincing argument.
…………………….

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Maple City newspaper.
"Twenty years ago Pine City established strict laws designed to limit the number
of new buildings that could be constructed in the city. Since that time the average
housing prices in Pine City have increased considerably. Chestnut City, which is
about the same size as Pine City, has over the past twenty years experienced an
increase in average housing prices similar to Pine City, but Chestnut City never
established any laws that limit new building construction. So it is clear that laws
limiting new construction have no effect on average housing prices. So if Maple
City were to establish strict laws that limit new building construction, these laws
will have no effect on average housing prices."
The writer of the letter to the editor is of the view that strict laws that limit the
number of new buildings would not affect the average housing prices in Maple
City. He cites the example of two cities, Pine City with strict laws and Chestnut
City without any laws, where the average housing prices have increased.
Therefore, the writer comes to the conclusion that laws limiting new construction
do not have an effect on average housing prices. However, the writer only shows
lack of good sense and judgment in believing so. He misinterprets the given facts,
which can have other implications as well. Moreover, he ignores many
possibilities that could have resulted in the increase in housing prices.
First of all, the writer is referring to the laws established in Pine City twenty years
ago. He also refers to Chestnut City twenty years ago. Considering that twenty
years is a long time, the change in housing prices is inevitable. With the passage
of time, there is increase in prices of every commodity due to inflation.
Constructing new buildings also comes under this and there could be a
considerable increase in the prices of construction material used in buildings due
to the inflation over twenty years. However, in case the inflation sees a
downward trend in future, it could have an opposite effect on the prices of
commodities including construction material. Therefore, it is likely that if the city
experiences a crash of the economy or deflation in future, its housing prices also
go down. Therefore, the writer should not assume that since housing prices in the
two cities have increased in the past, Maple City would also experience the same.
The conclusion derived by the writer is questionable since he does not analyze the
reasons for the increase in average housing prices in both the cities. It is possible
that the average housing prices in Pine City have actually increased due to the
strict laws. It is possible that Pine City is an upcoming city and more and more
people want to settle there. However, putting limit on the number of buildings
that could be constructed would limit their choice. Therefore, it is possible that in
Pine City, the demand of houses is more than the supply due to the laws
restricting new construction, which has resulted in increase in the average
housing prices.
On the other hand, it is possible that in presence of laws in Chestnut City, there
would not have been such an increase in average housing prices as is seen in the
city. It is possible that people have chosen to settle in Chestnut City due to such
strict laws in other cities. Therefore, since they could not construct new buildings
in other cities like Pine City, they have constructed these buildings in Chestnut
City where there are no such limits. The increase in housing prices could thus be
due to the increase in demand and more and more people moving to the city.
However, if there were strict laws in the city, it is possible that they did not find
this city as attractive and people would have chosen another place to settle. That
would mean that the average housing prices would not increase in the presence
of strict laws.
Clearly, the writer does not take into consideration these possibilities. He simply
comes to the conclusion by observing the average housing prices in the two cities.
However, each city is different in terms of its economy. While a progressive city
will see an increase in housing prices, it would be different in a backward city.
Therefore, the writer should not simply rely on the result in these cities.
Moreover, it is clear from the given discussion that strict laws can have an effect
on the average housing prices. The writer must therefore, think logically and
present a more reasonable argument.

The following appeared in a memo from the Principal of Sherwood Junior High
School.
"It appears that the lighting in Sherwood High's classrooms, which have large
windows but minimal overhead light sources, is impairing student academic
performance and teacher morale. Records show that during December and
January, the two months with the fewest hours of daylight, attendance rates fall,
average daily class participation drops, and grades decline. Teacher resignations
are also highest during these months. According to a study of Tundra Vocational
School, which experiences entire seasons with little daylight, students' grade
point averages increased when Day Glow light bulbs, which mimic sunlight, were
installed in classrooms. This study suggests that Sherwood can improve students'
academic performance and teachers' morale by using Day Glow light bulbs in
winter."
The Principal of Sherwood Junior High School utilizes the given memo to
recommend that the academic performance of the students and the morale of
the teachers can both be improved by using Day Glow light bulbs in winter. The
Principal supports his contention by stating the records which have reflected poor
attendance and poor performance by students in the months of December and
January when daylight is less. Moreover, the numbers of teachers who have
tendered their resignations are the highest in these months. The argument is
further supported by a study of Tundra Vocational School which is located in a
region that experiences entire seasons with limited daylight. This school saw
better performance from the students when Day Glow light bulbs were installed
in their classrooms. However, a close study of the argument reveals several
fallacies that render the recommendation indefensible.
The arguer fails to cite other reasons that may influence the attendance of
students in the months of December and January. There is no mention of the
climatic conditions of the region in these months. It is likely that the region where
Sherwood Junior High School is located, experiences heavy snowfall. Such a
scenario would definitely affect the attendance of students. Moreover, the arguer
makes no mention of the percentage of day scholars and the boarders at the
school. It is likely that Sherwood Junior High School is a boarding school and most
of the children go to their homes on Christmas. This might be the reason why the
day scholars may also be abstaining from their classes as they may be visiting
friends and family in the months of December and January. Additionally, there is
no mention of when the new session starts for the school. If the school follows a
winter session, then it is likely that as the session is just starting, the students are
not regularly attending classes. On the other hand, it is likely that the session
closes in January and so the students miss their school to stay at home and study
for the impending tests. This winter session could also explain the high number of
teachers who resign in these months as it is obvious that the teachers would
leave the school when the session completes.
There may be a host of other factors that affect the morale of the teachers, the
average daily participation in the class and the student grades. It is likely that the
mode of instruction being utilized by the school is not interesting enough and so
the students do not actively participate in the classroom activities. The teachers
who are not keen on continuing to work in the school may not be showing
interest in teaching the students during their last months in the school. The salary
and the perks given to the teachers may be affecting their morale to a greater
extent as compared to the daylight in the classrooms. It is possible that other
schools may be offering better salaries and additional incentives to the teachers
and hence they might be resigning from Sherwood Junior High School. Therefore,
unless the arguer rules out all these other factors, it is hard to be convinced that
limited daylight is the sole reason for all the problems cited by the arguer.
Moreover, the reader needs to know the number of years in the past which have
seen this trend in order to establish a link between the months of December and
January and the problems related to the attendance of students, average
participation in classes and the resignations of teachers. Moreover, the arguer
needs to draw a comparison between Sherwood Junior High School and Tundra
Vocational School with respect to the courses being conducted at these schools
and the general climatic conditions in both the regions. It is likely that Tundra
Vocational School is situated in a region where the climatic conditions are so bad
that Day Glow light bulbs are actually required for the conduct of vocational
courses which are dependent on good light.
In view of the above, it is evident that the argument fails to convince the reader
that installing Day Glow light bulbs is the only solution for improving student
attendance, their performance and the morale of the teachers.
……………………

The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of marketing at Dura-
Sock, Inc.
"A recent study of Dura-Sock wearers suggests that our company is wasting the
money it spends on its patented 'Endure' manufacturing process, which ensures
that our socks are strong enough to last for two years. Dura-Sock has always
advertised its use of the 'Endure' process, but the new study shows that the
average Dura-Sock customer actually purchases new Dura-Socks every three
months. Furthermore, Dura-Sock customers surveyed in our largest market,
northeastern United States cities, say that they most value Dura-Sock's stylish
appearance and availability in many colors. These findings suggest that Dura-Sock
can increase its profits by discontinuing its use of the 'Endure' manufacturing
process."
The arguer recommends that Dura-Sock can increase its profits by terminating the
use of the 'Endure' manufacturing process which ensures that the socks that are
manufactured by the company will last for two years. He supports his
recommendation by citing two facts. The first refers to the results of a recent
study which show that the customers have to buy new Dura-Socks every three
months. The second fact is that the customers of Dura-Sock in northeastern
United States cities have admitted to being attracted by the stylish appearance
and colors of the socks. However, as it stands, the evidence provided by the
arguer does little to substantiate the recommendation made by him.
Firstly, the fact that the customers have to buy Dura-Socks every three months
does not necessarily mean that the socks are not lasting for the two years that
they have been designed for. Moreover, this fact does not indicate that the
customers do not value the quality of Dura-Socks. There may be varied reasons
for buying the socks frequently. Incomplete information about the conduct of the
study makes the results sound unconvincing. The reader needs to know the cross-
section of people who participated in the study. It is likely that the people who
participated in the study consisted mainly of students or sportspersons who may
require socks more frequently than the others. Moreover, there is no indication
either of the region where the study was conducted or whether this region
accounts for the entire market area for Dura-Sock. In view of the above, it is
doubtful if the results of the study will hold true for all the customers of Dura-
Sock.
Secondly, the northeastern US cities cannot represent the thought process of all
the Dura-Sock customers who may be distributed across the country. It is
acceptable that the northeastern US cities account for the largest market of the
company but it is likely that all the remaining cities of the country put together
may account for a larger portion of the consumer market for the company. The
fact that most of the participants find the stylish appearance and colors of Dura-
Socks attractive does not mean that they are willing to compromise on the quality
of the socks. It is likely that the quality and durability of the socks are of a greater
importance in the minds of the customers as compared to the colors and the style
of the socks. The arguer needs to rule out this possibility in order to convince the
reader that the stylish appearance and the availability of colors are of more
importance and that the consumers do not give much importance to the quality
of the socks. In the absence of such evidence the termination of the 'Endure'
process is not justified.
The arguer makes no mention of the opinion of the consumers who have not
participated in either the study or the survey in the northern United States cities.
As the company should cater to the demands of the maximum number of its
consumers, it is necessary that their opinion should also be taken into account
before taking the decision to discontinue the 'Endure' process. Moreover, the
arguer does not bring out the financial amount that is being spent on the 'Endure'
process. It is likely that terminating the process would not make a significant
increase in the profits of the company. In view of the inadequate evidence
provided by the arguer, it can be concluded that the argument fails to convince
the reader that terminating the 'Endure' process would result in higher profits for
the company.
………………………………..

The following proposal was raised at a meeting of the Franklin City Council.
"Franklin Airport, which is on a bay, is notorious for flight delays. The airport
management wants to build new runways to increase capacity but can only do so
by filling in 900 acres of the bay. The Bay Coalition organization objects that filling
in the bay will disrupt tidal patterns and harm wildlife. But the airport says that if
it is permitted to build its new runways, it will fund the restoration of 1,000 acres
of wetlands in areas of the bay that have previously been damaged by
industrialization. This plan should be adopted, for it is necessary to reduce the
flight delays, and the wetlands restoration part of the plan ensures that the bay's
environment will actually be helped rather than hurt."
The proposal concludes that the plan to fill in 900 acres of the bay for building
new runways by Franklin Airport will ensure that flight delays are controlled.
Additionally, Franklin Airport has offered to carry out a restoration of 1000 acres
of wetlands to compensate for the environmental damage that will be caused due
to the filling up of 900 acres of the bay. The arguer asserts that this restoration
plan would be favorable and not damaging for the environment as claimed by the
Bay Coalition organization. However, a close scrutiny of the argument reveals
several flaws that make the argument specious in several respects.
The arguer has conveniently ignored all other possible factors that can lead to a
reduction in the flight delays at the airport. It is likely that Franklin Airport is
staffed inadequately and the staff is unable to manage the scheduling of flights
leading to flight delays. It is possible that there is no dearth of runways at the
airport but they are in need of maintenance. There is no reference to the weather
conditions in the region where Franklin Airport is situated. It is likely that by virtue
of being located near the bay, the region where the airport is situated sees
inclement weather most of the times. As there may be unpredictable strong
winds, storms, hurricanes etc. the fights get delayed very often. Without ruling
out all such possibilities, the arguer cannot convince the reader that the flight
delays occur due to an inadequate number of runways. Therefore, the arguer fails
to convince the reader that building new runways could lead to a reduction in
fight delays and hence, the effort involved in filling up 900 acres of the bay seems
highly unjustified.
Even if one assumes that the flight delays are indeed because of an inadequate
number of runways, the arguer needs to prove that it is inevitable that 900 acres
of the bay be filled up to construct runways. There is no statistical data pertaining
to the number of runways required and the amount of space required for
constructing one runway. Moreover, there is no mention of the kind of space
available around the airport. It is likely that there may be land near the airport
which can be utilized for constructing the runways. The arguer needs to rule out
this possibility in order to convince the reader that filling up 900 acres of the bay
is the only solution for creating space for additional runways.
The plan for restoration of 1000 acres of wetlands is not supported by any
evidence which proves that it will not lead to any environmental damage. The
process of renovation itself might be damaging to the environment. There is no
mention of the procedure that will be carried out for the restoration plan. It is
likely that the procedure involves processes that will damage the environment.
Common sense tells us that the process of filling up of the bay and the restoration
of the wetlands will have entirely different consequences on the ecological
balance of the region. As there is no evidence that can prove that ecological
damage like the disruption of tidal patterns and harm to wildlife would be
balanced by the restoration of the wetlands, one cannot be convinced that the
restoration plan would be beneficial and it would be able to compensate for the
ecological harm caused by filling up 900 acres of the bay.
The argument could have been bolstered by providing evidence that clearly
indicates lack of additional runways as the only reason for flight delays. Moreover,
the reader needs to be convinced that space amounting 900 acres would be
required for the construction of runways and that the restoration of the wetlands
would be ecologically beneficial. In view of the above, it is obvious that lack of
sufficient evidence makes the conclusion drawn by the argument sound dubious.
…………………………………

The following was published by a consumer protection agency.
"Three years ago, So-Low launched a nationwide ad campaign, focusing heavily on

sunny regions and distributing free sunglasses there. But although So-Low
sunglasses cost less than higher-priced brands, they block a smaller proportion of
the Sun's rays, including the type of rays known to damage the eyes even when
the person wearing the sunglasses feels no discomfort. A recent study suggests
that So-Low sunglasses can actually increase the risk of damage to people's eyes
by creating a false sense of security. The study shows a sharp increase in the
incidence of vision problems in the sunny regions over the past three years. These
findings suggest that anyone concerned about eye damage from the Sun should
avoid So-Low brand and instead either pay for higher-priced brands or wear no
sunglasses at all."
The argument recommends that people, who are conscious about eye damage
due to sun rays, should avoid using So-Low sunglasses and they should opt for
either higher priced brands or they should wear no sunglasses at all. This
recommendation is based on the findings of a recent study which has suggested
that eye damage due to sun rays could be increased by using So-Low sunglasses.
Moreover, the study has brought out that there has been a sharp increase in
vision related problems amongst people residing in sunny areas. The arguer also
brings out the fact that although So-Low sunglasses cost lower than the high
priced brands, they are unable to block eye-damaging sun rays in the same
proportion as the higher priced brands. However, the evidence provided by the
arguer fails to lend credible support to the argument.
No evidence has been provided in support of the assumption that So-Low

sunglasses block a smaller percentage of damaging sun rays as compared to the
higher brands. Even if it is true that the percentage of rays being blocked by So-
Low glasses is smaller, it is not necessary that the additional types of sun rays
being blocked by the other brands are equally harmful. It is likely that the sun rays
being blocked by the higher-priced brands include a number of rays which are not
harmful at all. Therefore, the fact that So-Low sunglasses do not block all the
same types of sun rays as those blocked by the higher-priced brands does not
mean that using So-Low sunglasses would be harmful for the eyes. At the same
time, the contention that So-Low sunglasses can increase the risk of eye-damage
by creating a false sense of security among its users is largely flawed as the arguer
has not been able to provide evidence that clearly links damage to the eyes with
the usage of So-Low sunglasses.
A major lacuna in the information provided about the recent study is that there is
no mention of the brand of sunglasses being worn by the people who have
experienced vision related problems in the sunny areas. It is likely that the people
who have experienced vision related problems do not use any kind of sunglasses
or they probably use some other brand of sunglasses. Additionally, it is likely that
people who do use So-Low sunglasses have vision related problems because they
were not religiously using their sunglasses whenever they stepped out in the sun.
In the absence of such information, one cannot be convinced that the sharp
increase in vision problems in the sunny regions is because of the usage of So-Low
sunglasses. The argument could have been substantiated to an extent by
providing strong evidence that established a concrete link between the
distribution of free So-Low sunglasses in sunny areas and a sharp increase in the
vision related problems amongst people residing in those sunny areas. The arguer
needs to prove that the people who used the free So-Low sunglasses are the
same people who have experienced these vision problems. Additionally, there is a
need to prove that the people who were given free So-Low sunglasses actually
used them extensively.
The conclusion drawn by the arguer is the weakest link in the argument. The
arguer provides no information related to the effectiveness of the higher-priced
brands in reducing or eliminating the chances of vision related problems.
Moreover, there is a need to provide evidence that could prove that it is better
not to use any kind of sunglasses rather than using So-Low sunglasses. Therefore,
in the absence of crucial evidence, the given argument has been rendered
unconvincing and indefensible.
…………………………….

A recently completed study shows that people dwelling in stairs-only apartment
buildings (that is, buildings without elevators) live an average of three years
longer than do people who live in buildings with both elevators and stairs. A
second study shows that elderly residents of buildings with elevators make, on
average, twice as many visits to doctors each year as do elderly residents of
buildings without elevators. These findings suggest that even a very moderate
amount of daily exercise, such as that required to use the stairs leading to and
from one's apartment, can increase people's health and longevity. The findings
also suggest that new apartment buildings should be constructed with as few
elevators as possible.
The arguer proposes that new apartment buildings should be constructed with as
few elevators as possible. The reason cited by the arguer for this proposal is that
people's health and longevity can be increased by carrying out a reasonable
amount of daily exercise like utilizing stairs for coming and going from one's
apartment. The arguer further cites the findings of two recent studies to bolster
the recommendation made. The first study has concluded that people who live in
buildings that do not have elevators outlive those who live in buildings that have
elevators and stairs. The second study has concluded that elderly people residing
in buildings with elevators make twice as many visits to the doctor as those made
by the people who stay in buildings that do not have elevators. However, a close
investigation reveals that these two studies accomplish little towards supporting
the recommendation made by the arguer.
Firstly, both the studies make no mention of the number of floors in the buildings
that were a part of the studies. It is likely that the number of floors in the
buildings where there were no elevators were very less as compared to the
buildings with elevators. Hence, the less number of stairs would probably make
no contribution to the recommended daily exercise routine. Therefore, the health
of the people residing in the buildings without elevators probably was not
affected in any way by the usage of stairs. On the other hand, it is likely that the
number of floors in the buildings with elevators is so high that it is not possible to
use the stairs at all, especially for the people residing in the upper floors. Using
the stairs may actually lead to fatigue and breathlessness, especially for the
elderly people. Therefore, without information about the number of floors in the
buildings that are being compared, it would be highly unjustified to conclude that
utilizing the stairs is providing health benefits and longevity.
Secondly, by making the sweeping statement that new apartments should not
have elevators, the arguer completely ignores the problems that will be
encountered in transporting commodities and luggage from the ground floor to
the upper floors. Baby prams, people in wheelchairs, bulky luggage, small children
etc. will all require elevators to reach their destinations. Utilizing the stairs would
be very tiring for the people who need to come and go to their apartments
frequently during the day. Therefore, the recommendation to avoid constructing
buildings with elevators is largely unwarranted.
Thirdly, linking the health related problems of people residing in two different
buildings with no information about their financial status, living conditions, age
etc. is unjustified. The people who are living longer or are making lesser trips to
the doctor may be because of their living conditions and financial status that
allow them to have a nutritious diet and take good care of their health. Also, it is
likely that the healthier set of people is younger than the people who have poor
health. Moreover, a trip to the doctor cannot be termed as a measure of one's
health. Probably, the elderly people go to the doctor to get a regular check up as
they are more health conscious than their counterparts who reside in buildings
without elevators.
Lastly, the arguer has not addressed any other forms of exercise that can be
effectively used without creating inconvenience by not constructing elevators.
Walking, jogging, playing, going to the gym etc. are all convenient forms of
exercise that can be easily adopted by people for maintaining a regular exercising
regime. Unless, the arguer rules out the possibility of using any of these forms of
moderate exercises, it is difficult to be convinced that not constructing elevators
is the only way to ensure that you get your daily quota of exercise. In conclusion,
it can be seen that both the studies do little to substantiate the recommendation
made by the arguer as there is no concrete evidence that links these two studies
to the conclusion arrived at by the arguer.
………………………………….

The following appeared in a clothing industry trade journal in the country of
Sartoria.
"A popular fashion magazine recently conducted a survey of consumers' opinions

about clothing prices, using prepaid mailing envelopes. Eighty-nine percent of the
approximately 20,000 respondents reported that they were either 'dissatisfied' or
'very dissatisfied' with current clothing prices. The large number of responses
indicates that the Sartorian clothing industry is at risk. Given the survey results,
clothing manufacturers must find a way to reduce prices in order to keep their
existing customers and maintain their businesses."
The given argument is based on a recently conducted survey that required

consumers to express their opinion on clothing prices. The arguer uses the results
of the survey to conclude that clothing manufacturers need to emphasize on
reducing clothing prices if they wish to maintain reaping profits in their
businesses. A cursory reading makes the recommendation made by the arguer
sound convincing, but an in-depth analysis of the evidence provided makes it
evident that the argument is flawed in several respects and the recommendation
made is not justified at all.
The argument provides scant information about the details of the survey which
forms the backbone of the given argument. The reader would like to know the
details of the survey pertaining to its content and the people who actually
participated in the survey. As the survey has been conducted by a popular fashion
magazine, it is likely that the survey asked the consumers their opinion about the
prices of clothing marketed by well-known brands. It is likely that the prices of the
clothing manufactured by these brands are beyond the reach of the common man
and hence, a majority of the respondents expressed their dissatisfaction with the
clothing prices. However, this does not mean that they are dissatisfied with all the
clothing brands that are available in the market. Their opinion might be restricted
to only those specific brands which were mentioned in the survey. Therefore,
unless the arguer specifically mentions that the survey was conducted for all the
clothing brands, the contention that the consumers are dissatisfied with the
clothing prices offered by all clothing manufacturers is not warranted.
There is no mention of the method that was employed to contact the consumers
for their opinion. If the prepaid mailing envelopes were provided along with the
magazine, then the respondents would be limited to the subscribers of the
magazine. In such a case, considering the opinion of the respondents to be an
indication of the opinion of the entire populace is highly questionable. Therefore,
unless the arguer clearly outlines the cross section of the people who were
contacted for providing their opinion, the opinion of the respondents cannot be
considered as valid evidence in support of the recommendation that has been
made by the arguer.
Even if one does assume that the people who were contacted for their opinion on
the clothing prices represent the entire populace, what is the surety that they are
the ones who have actually replied to the questions in the survey? As the opinion
was to be mailed, there is no check on the age or the experience of the people
who responded to the survey. It is likely that as the answers to the survey were to
be written down, people did not spend much time on contemplating what the
answers should be. Moreover, it is likely that the survey was answered by people,
like children and teenagers, who have little or no experience with respect to
buying clothes. They would have answered whatever came to their mind or they
replied after being influenced by the opinions of others. It is likely that people are
actually happy with the prices of the clothes that they buy, but they chose to
answer the survey differently either because of the influence of others or because
they did not have the time to spend on thinking what the actual answer should
be.
The argument could have been substantiated to an extent if the arguer had
provided evidence that clearly mentioned the cross-section of the people who
participated in the survey. Moreover, there is a need to provide details of the
survey like the specific questions that were asked with respect to the prices of the
clothing being marketed by all the clothing manufacturers. Therefore, in the
absence of crucial evidence, the given argument has been rendered fallacious as it
is difficult to be convinced that all clothing manufacturers must reduce prices in
order to maintain their businesses.
…………………………………..

The following appeared in a memo from Grocery Town's regional manager.
"The new Grocery Town store in Elm City, located near a new residential
development, has a 'high-low' pricing policy where average prices are relatively
high, but deep discounts are offered on some items in weekly specials. This store
has been showing increased profits every month as the nearby residential
development gets closer to full capacity. It follows that people prefer a pricing
policy where they can find bargains on specific items. Since there is a new
residential development planned in Oak City, we should change the pricing policy
at all of our Oak City stores from our current 'everyday low prices' policy to a
'high-low' policy. This will increase the profits at all of our stores in Oak City."
The regional manager of Grocery Town suggests that the pricing policy at their
Oak City stores should be changed to a 'high-low' pricing policy as the same
pricing policy has brought in high profits for their stores in Elm City. However, the
arguer fails to provide crucial evidence that can draw similarities between the
situations in Elm City and Oak City for making the argument sound convincing
enough. Therefore, the argument fails to persuade the reader that this change of
the pricing policy will prove to be profitable in Oak City.
A major lacuna in the given argument is that the arguer fails to address other
factors that could have influenced the rise in profits in the Grocery Town store
situated in Elm city. It is likely that there are no major competitors for the Grocery
Town store in its vicinity. Therefore, the store enjoys monopoly in the market of
the area where it is located. Moreover, it is likely that the store stocks products
that are in high demand. For instance, as it is located near a residential area, it
caters for common household goods and people come to the store for all their
daily requirements. This is evident from the fact that the sales of the store are on
the rise as the residential area in its vicinity nears full occupancy. These factors
would override the 'high-low' pricing policy when it comes to affecting the sales at
the store. Since the 'high-low' pricing policy is itself questionable as the sole
reason behind the high profits made by the store in Elm City, it would be highly
unreasonable to assume that implementing the same policy for the stores in Oak
City would ensure high profits.
The arguer provides no information related to the situation in the vicinity of the
Grocery Town stores in Oak City. Moreover, the reader needs to know the
location of the residential development which is being planned in Oak City and its
proximity to the stores in order to be convinced that the residential development
will make a difference to the sales at the stores. It is likely that the residential
area being developed is quite far from the Grocery Town stores in Oak City. It is
unlikely that people will travel long distances just to make purchases from these
stores. Moreover, there is a likelihood of stores of competitors being situated
closer to the area where the residential development is being planned. Therefore,
it is unlikely that the residential development would make a significant difference
to the sales at the Grocery Town stores located in Oak City. On the other hand,
the current 'everyday low prices' policy seems to be a better option for attracting
the crowds to the stores as the arguer has not been able to establish the
contribution of the weekly heavy discounts in increasing the sales at the stores.
Additionally, the 'everyday low prices' policy might succeed in weaning the
customers away from the competitor stores.
The argument could have been bolstered by providing additional information that
confirmed the 'high-low' pricing policy as the sole reason behind the success of
the Grocery Town store in Elm City. Moreover, the arguer needs to present data
pertaining to the competition being faced by the Grocery Town stores in Oak City
in the form of other grocery stores. The pricing policy of the Grocery Town stores
in Oak City will have to be determined keeping in mind the pricing policies of its
competitors. In conclusion, the recommendation made by Grocery Town's
regional manager is not well supported. The evidence presented by the arguer
does little to substantiate the argument and therefore, it appears highly
unconvincing and unjustifiable.
………………………………

The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are
required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were
in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply
departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by
increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as
printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also
increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these
changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable
component of our stores."
The business manager of Valu-Mart stores recommends stocking home office

machines such as printers, fax machines, paper shredders etc. for an increase in
profits. He supports his recommendation by citing the results of a recent survey in
which 70 percent of the respondents have reported increasingly carrying more
work from office to their homes. The arguer asserts that this trend of working at
home can be utilized by the Valu-Mart stores for improving their sales by stocking
the above mentioned home office machines in addition to increasing the stock of
office supplies. Despite the evidence provided, the argument is fallacious and it
fails to convince the reader that implementing the recommended action would
actually be profitable for the company.
Firstly, there is no data pertaining to the kind of work that is being taken home by
the respondents of the survey. It is likely that the work that is being taken home
does not require extensive use of either home office machines or office supplies.
For instance, the people who participated in the survey may be artists or writers
who would not require printers or fax machines. Even if the respondents were not
artists, the work taken home by them can be restricted to reviewing the work
done by their subordinates or preparing a plan for some upcoming event. It is not
necessary that all the work being done at home would require extensive use of
the home office machines that have been recommended to be stocked by Valu-
Mart stores. Therefore, without adequate information on the kind of office work
that is increasingly being done at home, the arguer cannot convince the reader
that an increase in the sale of home office machines is inevitable.
Secondly, there is no mention of the cross-section of people who participated in

the survey. Were all the participants from the same company or were they all in
the same profession? In either of the cases, the results of the survey would not
hold true for the employees of other companies or for people in other
professions. Moreover, it is likely that the work is being carried home by those
employees who have recently changed companies and are undergoing training for
the new work that has been assigned to them and hence, there is a need for them
to review the procedures that have been learnt during the day. On the other
hand, it is likely that the participants of the survey are from a company that is
undergoing a phase in which there is an additional load on all the employees for a
small duration. The argument could have been bolstered to an extent by
providing details related to the participants of the survey which could have
proved that people from all walks of life are now carrying their official work home
irrespective of their professions or the companies they work for.
Thirdly, even if it is true that there is indeed an increase in the number of people
who are now carrying their official work to their homes, it is not necessary that
the profits of the office-supply departments of the Valu-Mart stores are
dependent on this trend alone. The profits would depend a lot on the cost
involved in purchasing the new stock, its transportation and handling, catering for
its servicing etc. The argument needs to provide statistical data pertaining to the
other stores in the neighborhood that stock similar products. The competition in
the market would significantly affect the sales of items stocked by Valu-Mart.
Fourthly, the arguer needs to provide information related to the location of the
Valu-Mart stores. It is necessary that the people residing in the vicinity of these
stores feel the need for buying the items stocked by the office-supply
departments, failing which it is likely that the stores will face severe losses as they
would have already invested a sizeable amount of money in procuring the new
stock.
In conclusion, the argument provides scant evidence in support of the

recommendation made. Lack of crucial evidence that can establish a link between
the results of the survey and an increase in the sale of home office machines has
rendered the given argument indefensible.
……………………..

The following appeared in a newsletter from a national astronomy association.
"Various sources are predicting higher-than-average temperatures across the

country next winter, including in Sun City, the traditional location of our yearly
winter conference. Higher winter temperatures are sure to result in higher-than-
usual tourism in Sun City, a location already known for its attractive beaches and
good weather. Hotels will have fewer rooms available, transportation will be
more difficult to reserve, and public places such as parks and restaurants will be
more crowded. These conditions are likely to significantly reduce attendance at
the conference. We should therefore move our conference to a city less popular
with winter tourists."
The argument highlights three conditions that are likely to affect the attendance
at the yearly winter conference of the national astronomy association at Sun City.
These are less availability of hotel rooms, lack of adequate transportation and
large crowds at parks and restaurants. The arguer links the origin of these
conditions to a high number of tourists resulting from the higher-than-average
temperatures that have been predicted for the next winter. Based on this
assumption, the arguer recommends that the conference be moved to a city
which is less popular in winters. The argument suffers from several fallacies that
render the recommendation indefensible.
Firstly, the arguer fails to convince the reader that the three conditions outlined
by him would actually affect the attendance at the conference. Since the winter
conference at Sun City is a recurring event which takes place every winter, it
would not be difficult to make reservations for accommodation and transport
beforehand. The people attending the conference would know well in advance
that they have to be present in Sun City for the conference and they can be
forewarned to get their reservations done well in time. As the people would be
going to Sun City for a conference, the crowds at public places like parks and
restaurants should not affect them in the least. Therefore, the contention that the
venue of the conference should be changed can sound convincing only if the
arguer rules out the possibility of getting the reservations done in time.
Secondly, as Sun City is a popular tourist destination, it is unlikely that the city's
administration would not have catered for an increase in the number of tourists.
As Sun City is already known for its attractive beaches and weather, the
businesses in the city would be expanding themselves to meet increased tourist
influx annually. Therefore, it is likely that the conditions that have been assumed
by the arguer as a result of increased tourism may not be created at all.
Thirdly, the temperature is not the only criteria for people to decide where they
would like to go for their holidays. If people are used to going to a different
tourist location, it is unlikely that they would change their plans for a higher
winter temperature. Moreover, it is not necessary that most people would be
aware of the rise in temperature much before it is actually observed. Even if they
are aware of the higher winter temperature they may choose to go to some of the
other tourist destinations across the country as this rise in temperature has been
predicted to affect the entire country. Therefore, the arguer fails to convince the
reader that tourism in Sun City would actually increase in the winter. The
argument could have been bolstered by providing statistical data related to the
tourists who plan to visit Sun City in the winter.
Fourthly, the arguer completely ignores the reasons why the suggested new
venues for the conference are less popular with tourists. It is likely that those
cities are not easily accessible and they have poor infrastructures. There may be a
problem of accommodation and transport in those cities and this might be the
reason behind their being less popular.
The argument could have been substantiated by providing data pertaining to the
infrastructure of Sun City and whether it can meet the demands created by an
increase in tourism, if at all it is observed due to the higher-than-average
temperatures in the coming winter. Moreover, there is a need to establish a link
between the three conditions outlined by the arguer and the attendance at the
conference. In view of the above, it is obvious that the arguer fails to convince the
reader that shifting the venue for the conference is indeed required.
…………………………..

The following is a letter to the editor of the Waymarsh Times.
"Traffic problems here in Waymarsh are obviously reaching record levels. While
just three months ago it would take me 15 minutes to get to work, it now takes
closer to 25. Waymarsh should follow the example of our neighboring city
Gearsville. Last year, Gearsville implemented a policy that rewards people who
share rides to work with coupons for free gas. Pollution levels in Gearsville have
dropped since the policy was implemented, and several friends who live in
Gearsville tell me that their trip to work is quicker than it used to be. With the
terrible traffic and high pollution in Waymarsh, we must implement a policy
similar to Gearsville's."
The writer of the letter argues that Waymarsh should follow the policy that
people who share rides to their offices should get coupons for free gas. This
would ensure that the traffic problems and pollution levels in Waymarsh are
reduced. He further emphasizes that there is a serious traffic problem in
Waymarsh as it now takes him 25 minutes to get to work as opposed to 15
minutes three months ago. The arguer cites the example of the neighboring city
of Gearsville which has seen a reduction in the pollution levels as well as the time
taken to reach offices after the implementation of a similar policy. Despite the
evidence provided, the argument stands on shaky ground and fails to sound
convincing enough.
An experience of three months does not qualify as the sole reason for stating that
there is a traffic problem in Waymarsh. The arguer has not ruled out other
possibilities that may have increased the time taken to reach office in the past
three months. It is likely that the traffic on a portion of the route has been
converted to one-way traffic or has been blocked due to some obstruction and so
the arguer has to take a long detour to reach his office. Moreover, it is likely that
additional traffic signals have been installed on the route to the arguer's office,
thereby delaying the time taken by him to reach his place of work. Additionally,
the last three months may have seen an increase in tourists or there may have
been festivals or events that temporarily increased the traffic on the roads. Unless
the arguer rules out such possibilities, it is difficult to be convinced that there is a
traffic problem in Waymarsh based on the experiences of the arguer in the past
three months.
It is not necessary that the reduction in pollution levels in Gearsville is the result
of the policy that provides free gas coupons for sharing rides to work. The arguer
makes no mention of the number of people who have availed this facility by
actually sharing rides to work. The friends mentioned by the arguer may be
reaching their offices more quickly due to other reasons like taking shortcuts or
by utilizing other means of transport like local trains. The arguer needs to
explicitly mention the number of people who have started sharing rides to office
because of the free gas coupons and the effect that this has had on the road
traffic. Moreover, it is likely that Gearsville has implemented other policies like
moving industrial units outside the city or checking vehicles for adding to the
pollution levels of the city. In the absence of such data, the reader cannot be
convinced that the policy of providing free gas coupons is the sole reason behind
reducing both the traffic as well as the pollution levels in the city.
Finally, the arguer has drawn a false analogy between the cities of Waymarsh and
Gearsville as he has not provided any data pertaining to the geographical and
demographical make up of the two cities. It is likely that the population of
Gearsville is very less as compared to that of Waymarsh and so the traffic
conditions in Gearsville cannot be compared to those in Waymarsh. On the other
hand, it is likely that Gearsville consists of more office-going people than
Waymarsh and so the policy related to sharing rides to office may not prove to be
as effective in Waymarsh. Additionally, it is likely that Waymarsh has a hilly
terrain and so the traffic congestions on the narrow hill roads may be unavoidable
even if people share rides to work. Therefore, the recommendation made by the
arguer fails to sound convincing enough due to lack of sufficient evidence in its
support.
…………………..

The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Excello Food
Markets.
"In 90 towns where Excello has food markets, natural-food stores specializing in
organic food products - products containing no chemical preservatives and made
with foods grown without pesticides - have opened nearby as competitors.
Surveys of our own customers reveal a growing concern about foods grown using
pesticides or preserved with chemicals. Recently our market in Sun City
participated in a local food tasting fair, and 75 percent of the fair goers who
visited the Excello booth requested free samples of organic fruit. Such evidence
indicates that to increase our profits, we should begin to stock a full line of
organic food products in all our markets."
The memorandum from the president of Excello Food markets expresses the need
to begin a full line of stock of organic products. The concern is based on the
competitions raised by the nearby natural food stores specializing in organic food.
According to the argument, organic food products are gaining more popularity
because they are free of pesticides and chemical preservatives.
However, the rising competition with the nearby markets may not be entirely
based on the organic value of the food available there. There seems to be no
proof in support of the above mentioned assumption. It is quite possible that
these food products are becoming popular due to their better quality or may be
better taste. There is a fair possibility of better advertisement for these newly
launched organic food products. The memorandum has not considered the role of
media in giving hype to the organic content of these products. Correspondingly,
the need of the hour may be met by better advertisements through various media
channels.
Moreover, the argument of the president is based on the survey conducted in a

single city, where the customers at the food tasting fair requested for free
samples of organic fruits in Excello booth. This, in no way implies that customers
are favoring the other organic food products as well. It may simply be suggesting
that they would like to try organic fruits, produced by Excello Food. This in fact
shows their preference and contentment for the quality and taste of Excello Food
products, over organic fruits already available in the market.
Instead of following the techniques adopted by others, they could better their
products and set standards for others to follow. It would be rather wise to
conduct a survey of detailed comparison of their products with the new organic
ones on various criteria like price, taste, quality, range, packaging and variety of
flavors. In addition to this, a scientific study may be done on the possible harm
due to little amounts of chemical preservatives and to further nullify the effect of
pesticides used, by fine processing methods. A word about such facts and
researches can be spread through effective modes of media. This will not only
improve their products in the long run but also strengthen the faith and goodwill
among their customers.
Also, it would not be wise to abandon ancient techniques and ingredients used in
their products, since the assumption seems to be largely based on the rising
popularity of other organic food products. The actual profits made by these
companies in comparison to Excello Food have not been discussed. The argument
is deficient of enough research done among customers. The criteria of the survey
conducted in a single city, and its possible limitations have not been discussed.
Thus, the argument stands weak and unconvincing.
The fact that Excello Food has markets in nearly 90 towns supports the liking and
acceptance for its products. Hastily changing the entire line of stock without
adequate study and thought may prove to be disastrous. Conclusively before
doing away with the already adopted ways, all possibilities and factors must be
given a serious thought after an elaborate survey.
………………….

The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a food-distribution
company with food-storage warehouses in several cities.
"Recently we signed a contract with The Fly-Away Pest-Control Company to

provide pest-control services at our fast-food warehouse in Palm City, but last
month we discovered that over $20,000 worth of food there had been destroyed
by pest damage. Meanwhile, the Buzzoff Pest-Control Company, which we have
used for many years, continued to service our warehouse in Wintervale, and last
month only $10,000 worth of the food stored there had been destroyed by pest
damage. Even though the price charged by Fly-Away is considerably lower, our
best means of saving money is to return to Buzzoff Company for all our pest-
control services."
The food- distribution company, as mentioned above, is associated with food

storage warehouses in several cities. Recently it signed a contract for the pest-
control services with Fly-Away-Pest-Control Company, thereby ending its contract
with Buzzoff Pest-Control Company in some of the cities, after a year. The memo
from the vice president of the food-distribution company, lays emphasis on
returning to Buzzoff Pest-Control Company for its services in all the cities. This is
based on the comparison between the losses incurred by the two pest control
companies in terms of food destroyed by pest damage. In the first glance, this
claim in the memo appears to be quite logical as the services of the company
which is causing more monetary loss must be immediately terminated.
However, the rising competition with the nearby markets may not be entirely
based on the organic value of the food available there. There seems to be no
proof in support of the above mentioned assumption. It is quite possible that
these food products are becoming popular due to their better quality or may be
better taste. There is a fair possibility of better advertisement for these newly
launched organic food products. The memorandum has not considered the role of
media in giving hype to the organic content of these products. Correspondingly,
the need of the hour may be met by better advertisements through various media
channels.
Damage of food worth $ 20000 by The Fly -Away Pest-Control Company in Palm
City can be due to bad weather conditions. The climatic conditions in both Palm
City and Wintervale, must be compared. More damage in Palm City may have
resulted due to the lack of adequate facilities or congenial environment provided
by the food distribution company. One can not even rule out the likelihood of less
efficient or inexperienced staff employed by the food distribution company itself.
Consequently, the decision on continuation or termination of contract with Fly-
Away Pest Control Company should be based on its performance in all the
associated cities, and not just a single city.
Last but not the least, there must have been some factors responsible for
transferring the contract from Buzzoff Pest-Control Company to Fly-Away Pest-
Control Company, when the services of the former were received for many years.
Those factors must have had a ground and therefore should not be ignored. For
instance, the cost shared by both of the pest control services must be analyzed in
detail. Since The Fly-Away-Pest-Control Company charges much less as compared
to Buzzoff Pest-Control Company, separate records of the likely expenditure by
both the companies should be evaluated side by side. This will give a true picture
of the more profitable company, in the long run.
In other words, faith should be expressed and more time should be given to
analyze the overall performance of Fly-Away-Pest-Control Company. Proceeding
otherwise may harm the reputation of the food-distribution company, as
switching from one company to another and back to the previous one seems to
be an impulsive, immature and unethical action. Thus, the argument given in the
memo proves to be quite unconvincing, owing to the various above mentioned
aspects being ignored.
……………….

The following appeared in a proposal from economic minister of country of
Paraterra.
In order to strengthen its lagging economy, last year the government of Bellegea
began an advertising campaign to promote ecologically sound tourism
(ecotourism).This year, the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main
airport doubled, and per capita income in Bellegea increased by ten percent. To
provide more income for the population of Paraterra and to preserve the natural
environment of our tiny country, we too should begin to promote ecotourism. To
ensure that our advertising campaign is successful, we should hire the current
director of Bellegea's National Tourism office as a consultant for the campaign.
The given argument advocates the steps adopted by the government of the
country Bellegea to strengthen its lagging economy. It says that advertisement
campaign begun by the government of Bellegea, to promote eco tourism doubled
the visitors at Bellegea's main airport and also increased the country's per capita
income by ten percent. It is suggested that in order to increase the income of
people of Paraterra and to preserve its natural environment, same steps should
be taken up by hiring the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism office as
a consultant for the camp.
However, adopting the promotion campaign for ecotourism does not guarantee
any boost in the economy of Paraterra. This is primarily because the two
countries in the case may be entirely different in terms of their environment,
climate, locations for sight seeing, area, population and infrastructure. What may
have helped in the increase of tourism in Bellega, may not work in the case of
Paraterra.
Consequently, if at all some consultation in advertising campaign to promote

tourism is required, then the various above mentioned aspects should be
considered. Hiring of the current director of Bellega's National Tourism office for
consultation may not yield the desired results. Instead, someone with good
amount of experience and familiarity with the resources of Paraterra, can be
more beneficial.
More so, doubling of visitors at the main airport of Bellegea may be due to other
reasons. It may be because of cost reduction in the country's international air
fares, due to launch of new airlines or any such other reason. Also, more visitors
at the airport do not indicate growth of tourism. The visitors may be there for
some business or education purpose. There may be government employees on
duty or people dropping in as part of their break journey. It is not clear if all the
visitors at the airport were actually tourists.
Likewise, the increase in per capita income of Bellegea by ten percent may not
necessarily be due to the growing tourism. No adequate proof has been attached
to believe so. The rise in per capita income may be due to more export of goods,
new international business transactions or establishment of new companies.
In other words such steps which may have been crucial in the strengthening of
the country's economy are simply ignored. In addition to all this, no data has been
given to show if the ad- campaign really helped in preserving the natural
environment of Bellegea. Last but not the least, for the growth of economy in
Parattera, there may be more important issues that need to be dealt with.
Tourism may not prove to be a strong point for Paraterra and there may be other
issues which can boost up its economy, like say more employment, better
education, adoption of new technologies etc.
In summary, the argument is not convincing at all, as it takes a one track approach
without considering various other possibilities of the situation at hand. Each state
has distinct features and requirements. Therefore, instead of blindly following the
steps taken by the other country, a detailed study of the factors responsible for
the lagging economy in Paraterra should be done.
…………………………….

The following appeared as part of a business plan developed by the manager of
the Rialto Theater.
"Despite its downtown location, the Rialto Movie Theater, a local institution for
five decades, must make big changes or close its doors forever. It should follow
the example of the new Apex Theater in the mall outside of town. When the Apex
opened last year, it featured a video arcade, plush carpeting and seats, and a
state-of-the-art sound system. Furthermore, in a recent survey, over 85 percent
of respondents reported that the high price of newly released movies prevents
them from going to the movies more than five times per year. Thus, if the Rialto
intends to hold on to its share of a decreasing pool of moviegoers, it must offer
the same features as Apex."
The manager of Rialto Movie Theater expresses a mandatory need to either make
big changes in the theater or to shut it down forever, as a part of a business plan.
In addition, he strongly recommends bringing changes in the theater as is done by
the newly opened Apex Theater in the mall outside the town.
The argument however appears to be full of flaws from start to end. First of all,
there is no substantial reason given by the manager for either making changes or
closing the theater for good. The reason for giving such a statement itself is not
clear. The measures suggested can be taken up in case the business of Rialto
Theatre is incurring financial loss as compared to the previous years or in
comparison to other theaters. However, no such point is mentioned by the
manager.
Further, there are no details of feedback from the common people over the
preference of theater. No dissatisfaction over the present setup of Rialto Theater
is expressed by the moviegoers. Not only this, but also there is no favoritism
shown towards Apex Theater for its grand interiors and a state-of-the-art sound
system. This rejects any need to imitate Apex Theater in terms of its video arcade,
plush carpeting and seats etc.
Moreover, such changes made will only add up to the expense of the owners and
will most likely end up burdening the movie goers by hike in ticket prices. This will
lead to a decrease in the number of people going to Rialto Theater. Subsequently,
instead of increasing the returns, these changes may result in financial loss. By
raising the price of tickets and emulating the newly built Apex Theater, there is
also a risk of Rialto Theater losing its popularity, earned in five decades.
Reports from the recent survey conducted suggest that eighty five percent of
respondents are prevented from going frequently to the theaters due to high
price of tickets of newly released movies. This indicates a general decline in the
number of moviegoers. Moreover, one can not really point out if Apex Theater is
running more successfully, as there is no information about the theater drawing
more crowds. Similarly, the likelihood of Rialto Theater being visited more
frequently can not be ruled out.
More significantly, Rialto Theater has the advantage of its location and a sound
history. It is situated in the city center for almost about five decades. There is a
strong probability of Apex Theater being at a disadvantage, as it is situated in a
mall outside the town. This may be the reason behind its lavish interior decors in
order to attract more crowds. Making the most of the privilege of its suitable
location, Rialto Theater should lookout for other modes to attract moviegoers,
instead of aping the other theaters and spending unnecessarily.
Conclusively, the argument given by the manager to bring about drastic changes
in Rialto Theater is not acceptable due to lack of any sound reasoning.
…………………..

The following is a recommendation from the business manager of Monarch
Books.
"Monarch Books should open a cafe in its store to attract more customers and
better compete with Regal Books, which recently opened a cafe. Monarch, which
has been in business at the same location for more than twenty years, has a large
customer following because it is known for its wide selection of books on all
subjects. Opening the cafe would clearly attract more customers. The cafe would
require relatively little space. Space could be made for the cafe by discontinuing
the children's book section, which will likely become less popular given that the
last national census indicated a significant decline in the percent of the
population who are under age ten."
According to the recommendation from the business manager of Monarch Books,

a cafe should be opened in its store. This would attract more customers and give
a better competition to Regal Books, which has recently opened up a cafe too.
Although, more people may be attracted to the book store by the opening up of a
cafe, but they all need not be the customers willing to buy the books. There may
be many who would just go there to relax, rather than show a genuine interest in
buying the books. This may add up to the crowd thereby upsetting the actual
customers.
Nevertheless, there has been no mention of the profits earned by regal books by
virtue of their cafe. They might just be attracting crowd and not many customers
among them. As a result, there may not be much increase in their sales. Before
copying the cafe system from regal books, the locations of the two bookshops
should be given a thorough consideration. The type of crowd more likely to visit
Monarch Books should also be given a thought to. There is a possibility that Regal
Books is situated near some college or university campus with a lot of youngsters
around. Their preference for the bookstore with the cafe can be understood, as
they are generally more experimental. What may have worked for Regal Books
may not work for Monarch Books.
Monarch Books is known for its selection of books on all subjects and has built a
large customer following in twenty years. Closing the children's book section, for
aping the new cafe system may not be taken well and bring down its popularity
level. Going by the indication given by national census on the decline in popularity
of children's books, is not reliable since nothing is mentioned about the year in
which this census was held. It may not be recent enough to be considered. Even if
there is a decrease in the demand of children's books, it is not wise to discontinue
this section, as that would be adding to the further declination of children's book
section. Instead, more variety on the same could be made available, not
withstanding the general trend of demand and supply.
The need to bring about changes in the present pattern arises only when there is
an indication of Monarch Books losing its customers and drawing less profit.
However, the business manager has not thrown any light on such issues while
giving his recommendations. On one hand the manager expresses the desire to
give a good competition to Regal Books, and on the other hand he suggests
opening up a cafe in the book store by copying Regal Books. This may not be
appreciated by the customers.
Without considering the above stated points, opening up a cafe at the cost of
children's book section is not at all advisable. Continuing with the children's
section will not only maintain its reputation among children but surely among
their elders (parents) too. Thus, the argument given is not based on ample
reasoning and is unconvincing.
………………………

The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by
moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is
limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold
enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the
islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports
from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports
coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt,
we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer
being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
In an editorial in a wild life journal, it was published that the arctic deer which live
on islands in Canada's arctic region are declining in number, as reported by the
local hunters. The editorial has drawn similarities of this report with the recent
global warning trends and drawn the conclusion that the decline in arctic deer
population is due to inability of deer to follow their age old migration patterns
across the frozen sea.
This argument is not based on reports from any authentic sources and is thereby
very unconvincing. It rests on the feedback given by local hunters who themselves
can be misguided as they are not the experts to notice the changing patterns.
There is every possibility that the arctic deer have migrated to other regions
leaving the hunters to make guesses. It is equally possible that in spite of the
climatic changes, it is actually the local hunters who are responsible for the
migration or decline of the arctic deer. Hence, the inability of deer to cope up
with the changing climate is probably only a word spread by hunters to cover up
the cruel pace at which they went on hunting the deer.
The author has quickly jumped to the conclusion that the population of arctic
deer is waning because of global warming hampering their age-old patterns of
migration across the frozen sea. Though it is true that global warming has caused
sea ice in Polar Regions to melt, but it may not be the cause of decline of the
arctic deer. They need a habitat cold enough for at least some part of the year
and this condition is likely to have been met in the arctic region. Moreover, if
global warming was the cause, then it should have affected other animals in the
same region as well. No such issue is covered in the editorial.
The author was not only quick to assume that there is a decline in the arctic deer
population, but also overlooked any causes of this, other than the global warming
trends, when there can be different reasons for the decline of deer, if at all it is
true. It could be due to their natural habitats being disturbed by increasing human
interference, or due to increase in the number of their predators. The fall in
number may also be associated with some sort of pollution of water or due to
shortage of the plants they feed on. There may even be lack of suitable
environment for their mating. Before arriving at any conclusion, the adaption
trends of different animals, especially arctic deer in this case should have been
studied. Since it is quite likely that just as birds change their timing and countries
of migration, adapting to the changing climates, arctic deer have also adapted to
the rise in temperature due to global warming and migrated to a different
location.
Conclusively, the argument given by the author in the editorial of wild life journal
is denounced due to lack of evidence. The author should have supported it with
more reliable statistical data.
…………………….

Although black bears are common in the eastern Canadian province of Labrador,
grizzly bears - often similar in color, but much larger - were believed to exist only
in the western provinces. Despite a nineteenth-century explorer's account of
having startled and narrowly escaped from a grizzly bear deep in the woods in
Labrador, modern scientists find no physical evidence that grizzly bears have ever
lived in Labrador. But recent research into the language and legends of the Innu, a
people who have lived in Labrador for thousands of years, reveals that their
language has words for two different kinds of bears, and their ancient legends
attribute different characteristics to the two kinds of bears. Therefore, there
probably were grizzly bears in Labrador, and the explorer's account probably
accurately identified the bear.
In the given argument, the author has concluded that grizzly bears, believed to
exist only in the western province of Canada, actually once lived in Labrador
which is the eastern province of Canada. He has supported his argument by the
account given by an explorer in the nineteenth century. To supplement his belief,
he falls back on the language and legends of the Innu, a people who lived in
Labrador for thousands of years. In spite of these examples, the author's stand
looks quite weak when examined closely.
As mentioned in the argument, a nineteenth century explorer gave an account of

his sudden and startling encounter with a grizzly bear in the woods of Labrador,
which he escaped narrowly. There is every reason to doubt this self acclaimed
encounter of the explorer as he had no witness around. He may have made up a
story to gain attention by adding some thrill to his expedition. Moreover, one
cannot rely on the knowledge and precision of the explorer. He may not have
been well read about the two types of bears and probably misjudged in the state
of shock and fear.
The other example cited by the author is a point of contention itself. He claims
that the Innu who lived in Labrador for quite long, had mentioned two types of
bears in their language and legends. However, it is possible that they developed
two types of inscriptions or codes for the same animal. Even if they denoted
different types of bears, there is no evidence to believe that one of them was for
the grizzly bear as it is well known that there are more than just two types of
bears in the world. Contradicting our own judgment even if we assume for the
time being that one of the bear characters described in the legends of the Innu
was the grizzly bears, there is no reason to further assume that these bears once
lived in Labrador. It is quite likely that some Innu men had seen grizzly bears in
some place other than Labrador. Maybe the ancestors of the Innu belonged to
regions where they witnessed these bears and narrated their experiences to
them. There is another wild possibility of some odd grizzly bear reaching Labrador
accidently. It may have got lost and reached in the eastern province of Canada.
Till date, no scientific or historical study has proved anything that supports the
author's view. Historians must have considered the two distinct characters
mentioned by the Innu in their language and legends. They must have been aware
of the account given by the nineteenth century explorer too. Still if there is no
conclusion drawn by the historians in this regard, it clearly indicates that these
proofs are not sufficient to assert anything about the existence of grizzly bears in
Labrador.
In cessation, the example and incident cited by the author are not enough to
support his argument. He should have considered more reliable and significant
sources like archeological and scientific findings, before arriving at any conclusion.
………………………..

Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-
sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical
records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe
mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge
volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a
large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of
blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large
meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light,
and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving
Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be
consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused
by a volcanic eruption.
The study of historical weather patterns indicates that in the mid-sixth century
earth suddenly became significantly cooler. In accordance with this, few accounts
found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of sun and extremely cold
temperatures. In the argument given above, the author mentions that there could
be either a meteorite collision or a large volcanic eruption responsible for this. He
further concludes some volcanic eruption to be the cause by giving example of
some Asian records that mention a large boom. However, the author has made
far too many assumptions
First of all, he has mentioned only two possibilities of the sudden cooling of earth
in the mid of sixth century. A little more survey about the scientific developments
could have given a wide range of possible reasons for the same. Second, the
author's belief that the sudden cooling of earth was due to a volcanic eruption
stands quite weak. He has based his theory on the assumption that the loud
boom mentioned in the few Asian records was due to the volcanic eruption
although no proof for the same has been established. Further, the dimming of sun
is associated with the possible dust clouds formed due to volcanic eruption.
Third, a loud boom may be suggestive of a meteorite collision as well. As far as
the dimming of sun is concerned, it could be due to dust clouds in the
atmosphere, which is equally possible due to collision with a meteorite.
Fourth, the argument simply rejects the possibility of a meteorite collision

responsible for the dimming of sun since no accounts of a bright flash of light are
available. Keeping in view the scarcity of accounts available for the cooling of
earth itself, one cannot simply reject the possibility of a meteorite collision due to
lack of records in its favor, as it is clear that there is a huge shortage of historical
accounts of the mid-sixth century.
In addition to this, the loud boom seems more likely due to a meteorite collision
rather than a volcanic eruption. As there are higher chances of a volcanic
eruption, its sound and effect being more limited to certain regions, in
comparison to the effect and sound of a meteorite collision.
Another point of contradiction to the given argument is the cooling of earth due
to volcanic eruption. Though, the dust and gases could have blocked the sun and
hence the heat, there is no mention of the heat generated by the lava of the
volcano. Furthermore, there would have been more evidence available in the
form of the mineral rich lava which erupted from the volcano. Neither the
scientists, nor the above argument draws support from such possible evidence.
This in turn, weakens the given argument as it is based more on assumptions.
Although, it may be established that the dimming of sun and sudden cooling of
earth could be either due to some meteorite collision or due to some volcanic
eruption, there seems to be no substantial reason for the author to arrive at any
conclusion at this point of time .
…………………………..

The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of
Corpora.
"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for
adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on
physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are
adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be
the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where
levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has
not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low
expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the
economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the
economy does."
The health standards in the country of Corpora are falling, as per a newspaper
article. According to the article, twenty years back where one half of the citizens
met the standards set by the national advisory board, today the number has
fallen to one quarter of the citizens. The writer argues that spending too much
time on computers can not be the cause contrary to what the board suggests. The
author cites example of regions of Corpora where fitness levels are highest in
spite of the highest ownership of computers.
On careful thinking, there appear a number of reasons to reject this argument.

Firstly, there has been no information about the criteria set by the national
advisory board of Corpora, to judge the fitness level of the citizens. It has not
been mentioned if there has been any change in the criteria and set standards in
the last twenty years. This change is a must, keeping in view the present lifestyle,
food habits, medical supplements and availability of time.
Whether usage of computers is responsible or not, can be commented upon only

after a more thoroughly conducted survey. Similarly, without developing an
insight into other possibilities, it would be impulsive to conclude that fall in
economy and hence lack of fitness related products is responsible for the
declining physical fitness of the citizens. In continuation, the physical fitness
standards may have fallen to one quarter due to high standards set by the board.
The deterioration in fitness level may be due to alarming factors like change in
attitude, busy schedule, less emphasis on sports at primary level, some epidemic
or stress because of rising competition in every field.
Secondly, the regions of Corpora which show high levels of fitness along with high
levels of computer ownership, do not really indicate anything to support the
author's view. It is possible that these regions have economically more well off
residents and therefore more possessors of computers. It is also likely that there
are more software companies in these regions as compared to others. Another
reason for more computers in these regions can be possibly attributed to more
population.
Thirdly, it may be equally true that these regions of high computer ownership
have more health oriented citizens due to one or the other reason. Since no
details of the usage of computers in these areas are given, it cannot be concluded
that excessive use of computers have no role to play in the fall of fitness levels.
Last but not the least, the decline in a year's economy cannot be entirely
responsible for the fall in levels of physical fitness. Good physical health and
consciousness towards health cannot fade away in merely a year. Moreover, a
year's poor economy and low expenditure on fitness related products can at the
most deprive the citizens of the latest equipments. It cannot deteriorate the
health standards so sharply.
Conclusively, the argument given by the author in his newspaper article is refuted,
as it is not based on comprehensive statistical data but on assumptions.
……………..

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a newsletter on health issues.
"For the past decade, most health experts have advised teenagers to avoid eating
greasy foods in order to prevent acne and related skin conditions, but the number
of teenagers who sought medical help for these skin problems has actually risen
over the same period. In a recent study, teenagers who avoided greasy foods for a
month reported approximately as many outbreaks of acne and related skin
conditions as did those who ate an average of two servings of greasy food per
day. Such data indicate that eating greasy foods is unlikely to be a cause of acne
and related skin conditions. Therefore, health experts should no longer
recommend that people avoid such foods."
In a letter to the editor of a newsletter on health issues, it is suggested that health

experts should not recommend people to abstain from greasy foods since these
are unlikely to be a cause of acne and related skin conditions. This is the
consequence of a recent study that revealed that teenagers avoiding greasy foods
for a month had almost as many acne problems as their counterparts taking two
servings of greasy food per day. The argument is based on the growing number of
teenagers seeking medical help for skin problems, in spite of advice from health
experts.
However, the claim made in the letter does not interpret the resent study reliably.
The period of one month is too short to get rid of acne or skin problems caused by
greasy foods. Hence, the survey conducted stands unjustified as the teenagers
who have avoided the greasy foods need more time to come up with the actual
results. Only then it can be understood as to how much the acne and other skin
problems are related to greasy foods.
The next case in point is about the rise in number of teenagers seeking medical
help for skin related problems. This may be due to the growing awareness among
teenagers. It would be wrong to assume that all teenagers are taking to the advice
of health experts and abstaining from greasy food. In spite of their awareness,
they may be tempted by the variety of food stuff rich in spice and oil. This does
not imply that health experts should stop giving tips for acne free skin. In fact, it is
absurd to conclude that since more and more teens are getting treated for acne,
they must have been avoiding greasy food stuffs too. This is an assumption
without any valid proof.
Equivalently, it is possible that the outbreak of acne and related skin problems in
teens is due to various other reasons as well. For example, it could be due to
onset of puberty and related hormonal changes, due to stress, anxiety,
restlessness, exposure to pollution or some type of food allergy. Still, none of
these contradict the recommendation of the health experts to avoid greasy foods
for acne free skin.
In addition to this, suggestions and tips given by health experts are not meant
solely for teenagers. There are people from all age groups who benefit from the
guidance of health experts. The survey conducted is limited to teenagers whilst, it
is a known fact that acne and other related skin problems prop up among adults
too. Thus, there is no reason for anyone to presume that acne and other skin
problems are not related to greasy foods and it would not be fair to hold the
advice of health experts in low esteem.
In conclusion, the argument given does not hold any good since it is based on a
survey which is conducted within a limited scope and hence recommendations
from health experts should keep pouring in till the time it is not proved that acne
and related skin problems are independent of greasy food stuffs.

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GRE AWA Practice - GRE ARGUMENT ESSAY 1

GRE Analytical Writing Argument Essay Topic - 1

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 1

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 2

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 3

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 4

According to Promofoods, five suspected chemicals were not present in the

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 5

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 6

Everybody wants to have sound sleep, whether it is an over-worked person or a

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 7

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 8

This argument contains a suggestion given by the chairperson of a department to

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 9

GRE Analytical Writing Argument Essay Topic - 10

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 10

GRE Analytical Writing Argument Essay Topic - 22

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 22

The statement that "the proliferation of programs and of workshops designed to

GRE Analytical Writing Argument Essay Topic - 23

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 23

GRE Analytical Writing Argument Essay Topic - 24

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 24

GRE Analytical Writing Argument Essay Topic - 25

"In a recent telephone survey of automobile factory workers, older employees

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 25

In the given argument, the director of personnel of Professional Printing Company

Secondly, older workers may not be requiring supervision because of their

GRE Analytical Writing Argument Essay Topic - 26

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 26

GRE Analytical Writing Argument Essay Topic - 27

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 27

GRE Analytical Writing Argument Essay Topic - 28

"Since college-bound students are increasingly concerned about job prospects

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 28

Finally, a major loophole in the given argument is that a promised job on

GRE Analytical Writing Argument Essay Topic - 29

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 29

GRE Analytical Writing Argument Essay Topic - 30

"The development of an extensive computer-based long-distance learning

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 30

The given argument reflects an assertion made by a professor at Xanadu College

GRE Analytical Writing Argument Essay Topic - 31

"Despite opposition from some residents of West Roseville, the arguments in

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 31

Lastly, the assumption that there will be an increase in business investments as

GRE Analytical Writing Argument Essay Topic - 32

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 32

GRE Analytical Writing Argument Essay Topic - 33

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 33

Therefore, the conclusion of the argument is flawed due to the absence of

GRE Analytical Writing Argument Essay Topic - 34

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 34

Therefore, the recommendation that reverting to the original mission will

GRE Analytical Writing Argument Essay Topic - 35

GRE AWA Analytical Writing Argument Essay Sample Solution - 35

Even if the television shows are actually creating negative images of

The second fact presented by the arguer refers to a survey conducted on

GRE Analytical Writing Argument Essay Topic - 36