April 2019

Month 2018

Empire
EmpireState
State
Manufacturing
ManufacturingSurvey
Survey
Business activity grew modestly in expanded modestly. The general index for number of employees edged
New York State, according to firms business conditions index increased down two points to 11.9, pointing
responding to the April 2019 six points to 10.1, indicating growth to ongoing employment gains. After
Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The picked up somewhat but remained dipping into negative territory last
headline general business conditions fairly subdued. Thirty-three percent month, the average workweek index
index rose six points to 10.1, indicating of respondents reported that rose eight points to 4.3, suggesting
that growth picked up somewhat but conditions had improved over the hours worked increased slightly.
remained fairly subdued. New orders rose month, while 23 percent reported
slightly, and shipments continued to grow that conditions had worsened. The Optimism Wanes
modestly. Delivery times and inventories new orders index rose five points Optimism about the six-month
both increased. Labor market indica- to 7.5, indicating orders picked outlook was much lower than last
tors pointed to ongoing employment gains up slightly. The shipments index month. The index for future business
and a small increase in hours worked. The edged up a point to 8.6, pointing conditions dropped seventeen points

11APR2019 10:20
prices paid and prices received indexes to continued modest growth in to 12.4—its lowest level in more than
moved lower, pointing to a slowing in shipments. Unfilled orders were three years. The indexes for future
both input price increases and selling little changed, while delivery times new orders and shipments were
price increases. Indexes assessing the six- and inventories both increased. also well below last month’s levels.
month outlook suggested that firms were Nonetheless, firms continued to
much less optimistic about future business Price Increases Slow expect solid increases in employment
conditions than last month. The prices paid index fell seven points and hours worked in the months
to 27.3 and the prices received index ahead. The capital expenditures
Modest Growth declined four points to 14.0, indicating index edged down to 25.2, and the
Manufacturing firms in New York that both input price increases and technology spending index was
State reported that business activity selling price increases slowed. The unchanged at 20.3. ■

General Business Conditions

Seasonally Adjusted

Diffusion Index
40

30

20

10

-10

-20

-30
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
-40
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Note: The shaded area indicates a period designated a recession by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

FederalReserve
Federal ReserveBank
Bankofof
NewNew York
York
 Month
Empire 2018
State Manufacturing Survey

Current Indicators
Change from Preceding Month

Empire State
General Business Conditions
30
Percent Reporting

Manufacturing Survey
20
Higher Lower Index
10 Mar 29.1 25.4 3.7
0 Apr 32.7 22.6 10.1
-10
| | | | | |
Change 6.4
-20
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

New Orders Percent Reporting

30
20 Higher Lower Index
10 Mar 27.9 24.9 3.0
0
-10 Apr 31.7 24.2 7.5
-20 Change 4.5
| | | | | |
-30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Shipments Percent Reporting

30
20
Higher Lower Index
10 Mar 32.3 24.6 7.7
0 Apr 34.0 25.4 8.6
-10
| | | | | |
Change 0.9
-20
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Unfilled Orders Percent Reporting

20
10
Higher Lower Index
0 Mar 17.4 15.2 2.2
-10 Apr 15.4 16.1 -0.7
-20
| | | | | |
Change -2.9
-30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Delivery Time Percent Reporting

20
10
Higher Lower Index
0 Mar 12.3 10.9 1.4
-10 Apr 15.4 8.4 7.0
-20
| | | | | |
Change 5.6
-30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Inventories Percent Reporting

20
10
Higher Lower Index
0 Mar 21.7 21.7 0.0
-10 Apr 26.6 18.2 8.4
-20
| | | | | |
Change 8.4
-30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

FederalBank
Federal Reserve Reserve Bank
of New of NewApril
York York2019 2
 Month
Empire 2018
State Manufacturing Survey

Current Indicators,continued
Change from Preceding Month

Empire State
Prices Paid
60
Percent Reporting

Manufacturing Survey
Higher Lower Index
40
Mar 37.0 2.9 34.1
20
Apr 32.9 5.6 27.3
0
| | | | | |
Change -6.8
-20
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Prices Received Percent Reporting

60
Higher Lower Index
40
Mar 21.7 3.6 18.1
20
Apr 19.6 5.6 14.0
0
| | | | | |
Change -4.1
-20
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Number of Employees Percent Reporting

30
20
Higher Lower Index
10 Mar 18.3 4.5 13.8
0 Apr 19.9 8.0 11.9
-10
| | | | | |
Change -1.9
-20
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Average Employee Workweek Percent Reporting

20
10
Higher Lower Index
0 Mar 11.1 14.5 -3.4
-10 Apr 18.0 13.7 4.3
-20
| | | | | |
Change 7.7
-30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Note: Data are seasonally adjusted.

FederalBank
Federal Reserve Reserve Bank
of New of NewApril
York York2019 3
 Month
Empire 2018
State Manufacturing Survey

Forward-Looking Indicators
Expectations Six Months Ahead

Empire State
General Business Conditions
60
Percent Reporting

Manufacturing Survey
Higher Lower Index
40
Mar 42.9 13.3 29.6
20
Apr 38.2 25.8 12.4
0
| | | | | |
Change -17.2
-20
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

New Orders Percent Reporting

60
Higher Lower Index
40
Mar 45.4 16.4 29.0
20
Apr 42.7 22.2 20.5
0
| | | | | |
Change -8.5
-20
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Shipments Percent Reporting

60
Higher Lower Index
40
Mar 45.4 17.7 27.7
20
Apr 43.4 20.8 22.7
0
| | | | | |
Change -5.0
-20
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Unfilled Orders Percent Reporting

30
20
Higher Lower Index
10 Mar 18.1 12.3 5.8
0 Apr 15.4 15.4 0.0
-10
| | | | | |
Change -5.8
-20
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Delivery Time Percent Reporting

20
10
Higher Lower Index
0 Mar 16.7 10.1 6.5
-10 Apr 12.6 14.7 -2.1
-20
| | | | | |
Change -8.6
-30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Inventories Percent Reporting

20
10
Higher Lower Index
0 Mar 25.4 23.9 1.4
-10 Apr 26.6 22.4 4.2
-20
| | | | | |
Change 2.8
-30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

FederalBank
Federal Reserve Reserve Bank
of New of NewApril
York York2019 4
 Month
Empire 2018
State Manufacturing Survey

Forward-Looking Indicators, continued

Expectations Six Months Ahead

Empire State
Prices Paid
80
Percent Reporting

Manufacturing Survey
60
Higher Lower Index
40 Mar 43.5 2.9 40.6
20 Apr 42.0 4.9 37.1
0
| | | | | |
Change -3.5
-20
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Prices Received Percent Reporting

80
60
Higher Lower Index
40 Mar 29.7 5.8 23.9
20 Apr 25.9 9.8 16.1
0
| | | | | |
Change -7.8
-20
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Number of Employees Percent Reporting

40
30
Higher Lower Index
20 Mar 27.8 10.2 17.6
10 Apr 28.4 11.1 17.3
0
| | | | | |
Change -0.3
-10
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Average Employee Workweek Percent Reporting

30
20
Higher Lower Index
10 Mar 17.4 7.2 10.1
0 Apr 20.3 9.1 11.2
-10
| | | | | |
Change 1.1
-20
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Capital Expenditures Percent Reporting

40
30
Higher Lower Index
20 Mar 34.8 6.5 28.3
10 Apr 34.3 9.1 25.2
0
| | | | | |
Change -3.1
-10
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Technology Spending Percent Reporting

30
20
Higher Lower Index
10 Mar 25.4 5.1 20.3
0 Apr 28.0 7.7 20.3
-10
| | | | | |
Change 0.0
-20
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Note: Data are seasonally adjusted.

FederalBank
Federal Reserve Reserve Bank
of New of NewApril
York York2019 5