FinQuiz - Curriculum Note, Study Session 5, Reading 19
FinQuiz - Curriculum Note, Study Session 5, Reading 19
FinQuiz - Curriculum Note, Study Session 5, Reading 19
FinQuiz Notes – 2 0 1 9
1. INTRODUCTION
Investors must analyze following factors to identify Other factors from a longer-term perspective include
markets that are expected to provide attractive Country’s
investment opportunities:
• Stage of economic and financial market
• Cross-country differences in expected GDP growth development
rates. • Demographics
• Cross-country differences in monetary and fiscal • Quality and quantity of physical and human capital
policies, trade policies, and competitiveness. • Area of comparative advantage
2. INTERNATIONAL TRADE
• Country A produces and consumes 60 machines technology, the discovery of natural resources (e.g.
and 60 thousand yards of cloth. oil).
• Country A lies on indifference curve I.
With trade:
Practice: Example 4,
Volume 2, Reading19.
• Country A and B will face the world price line P*.
• World price line P* is tangent to the PPF at point B.
• Hence, due to the change in relative prices of the
goods, Country A is encouraged to increase the From an investment perspective, analysts and investors
production of the good in which it has comparative must analyze the following factors:
advantage (i.e. machines) and produce at point B
instead of point A. • Country's comparative and absolute advantages
• At point B, Country’s A production of machines has and changes in them.
increased to 120 units and production of cloth has • Changes in government policy and regulations.
reduced to 30,000 yards. • Changes in demographics, human capital, demand
• Also, post-trade, Country A consumes at point E conditions.
(which lies on P*, outside the PPF), which lies on a
higher indifference curve (III). Hence, trade 2.4.2) Ricardian and Heckscher-Ohlin Models of
increases welfare of Country A. Comparative Advantage
• It exports 80 machines to Country B and imports
80,000 yards of cloth from Country B. According to Adam Smith, a country can gain from
• P* is also called the trading possibilities line because trade if it has absolute advantage in the production of a
trade occurs along this line. good.
• The slope of the line P* represents the opportunity
cost of a machine in terms of cloth in the world According to David Ricardo, a country can gain from
market. trade if it has a comparative advantage in the
• At price P*, trade is balanced i.e. the export of cloth production of a good even if it does not have an
from Country B equals the import of cloth into the absolute advantage in the production of any good.
Country A and the export of machines from Country
A equals the import of machines into the Country B. Ricardian Model: According to the Ricardian Model,
differences in productivity of labor between countries
cause productive differences which leads to gains from
Conclusion:
trade.
• Structural shifts in the domestic economy. • Hence, under Heckscher-Ohlin model, the source of
• Shifts in the global economy. comparative advantage is the differences in the
• Accumulation of physical or human capital, new relative factor endowments.
Reading19 International Trade and Capital Flows FinQuiz.com
Trade restrictions (or trade protection) are government Domestic content requirements: Domestic content
policies that are used to impose limits on the ability of provisions are a regulation that requires that some
domestic households and firms to trade freely with other specified % of a final good be produced domestically.
countries. Examples of trade restrictions include: This % can be specified in physical units or in value terms.
Tariffs: Tariffs are taxes levied by a government on Rationale behind imposing Trade restrictions:
imports.
1) Protecting established domestic industries from
Import quotas: Quota is a direct quantitative restriction foreign competition.
on the amount of a good that can be imported into a 2) Protecting new industries from foreign competition
country (generally for a specified period of time). (a.k.a infant industry argument).
3) Protecting and increasing domestic employment.
Voluntary export restraints (VER): It is a trade restriction 4) Protecting strategic industries for national security
under which the exporting country agrees to limit its reasons.
exports of the good to its trading partners to a specific 5) Generating revenues (i.e. through tariffs).
number of units. VER is similar to import quotas; but unlike 6) Retaliation against trade restrictions imposed by
quotas, it is imposed by the exporting country. other countries.
• To protect domestic industries that produces the When a small country imposes a tariff:
same or similar goods.
• To reduce a trade deficit.
• Consumer’s surplus decreases due to increase in
price.
Disadvantages of tariffs: Consumer loss = A + B + C + D
• Producer’s surplus increases due to increase in price.
• Tariffs increase the price of imports above the free Producers gain = A
trade price; as a result, demand for imported goods • Government revenue increases i.e. the government
falls. gains tariff revenue on imports = Q2Q3. It is
• Tariffs reduce the overall global welfare. represented by area C.
• Triangle B and D reflects efficiency loss because
In this context: tariffs distort incentives to consume and produce.
o Triangle B reflects production inefficiencies i.e.
Small Country: A small country refers to a country that is inefficient producers with cost of production > P*
a price taker in the world i.e. it cannot influence the exist in the market and leads to inefficient
world market price. allocation of resources.
o Triangle D reflects consumption inefficiencies i.e.
• Trade barriers generate a net welfare loss in a small consumers are now unable to consume the good
country. due to higher prices.
3.2 Quotas • Under VER, all of the quota rent is captured by the
exporting country, whereas under import quota at
least some part of the quota rent may be earned by
A quota is used to restrict the quantity of a good that
local importers.
can be imported into a country, generally for a specified • VER produces a greater welfare loss to the importing
period of time. This restriction is usually enforced by
country than import quota.
issuing licenses to some group of individuals or firms.
• Due to import quota, foreign producers increase the 3.3 Export Subsidies
price of their goods.
• The profits received by the import license holders Objective of export subsidies: To stimulate exports.
(foreign producers) are known as quota rents.
Disadvantage of export subsidies: They reduce welfare
In the fig below, by promoting production and trade that is inconsistent
with comparative advantage.
• Import quota = Q2Q3.
• Domestic price after the quota = Pt (same as the Countervailing duties: Duties that are imposed by the
domestic price after the tariff t was imposed). importing country against subsidized exports are referred
• Quota rent is represented by Area C. to as countervailing duties.
Panel B: Effects of Alternative Trade Policies on Price, Consumption, Production, and Trade
Important examples of regional integration include: Example: In 1947, Belgium, the Netherlands, and
Luxemburg ("Benelux") formed a customs union.
1) North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)
3) Common market: A common market incorporates all
2) European Union (EU)
aspects of customs union and also allows free
movement of factors of production (especially labor)
among members.
Reading19 International Trade and Capital Flows FinQuiz.com
Example: The Southern Cone Common Market producer surplus and government tariff revenue falls.
(MERCOSUR) of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Hence, trade creation results in net increase in
Uruguay. welfare.
• Regional integration may result in less-efficient • Restrictions imposed on foreigners to invest in the
allocation of resources and decrease in welfare due domestic country.
to trade diversion. • Limits on inward investment by foreigners i.e. amount
• They may encourage mergers and takeovers that they can invest in the domestic country and/or
resulting in greater oligopolistic collusion. type of industries in which capital can be invested.
• They create adjustment costs arising from job losses
e.g. when inefficient firms exit the market due to Restricted capital outflows refer to limits imposed on the
import competition, unemployment increases. purchase of foreign assets or loans abroad. Outward
However, it is viewed as a temporary phenomenon. Capital restrictions include:
But when workers remain unemployed for a long
period, they may face long-term losses.
• Restrictions placed on foreigners on repatriation of
• Differences in tastes, culture, and competitive
capital, interest, profits, royalty payments, and
conditions among members of a trading bloc
license fees.
reduce the potential benefits from investments
• Restrictions imposed on citizens to invest abroad
within the bloc.
particularly in foreign exchange, scarce economies.
• Problems faced by individual member countries may
• Deadlines placed on citizens regarding repatriation
quickly spread to other countries in the bloc.
of income earned from any investments abroad.
The balance of payments (BOP) measures the payments Debit entries include:
that flow between any individual country and the rest of
the world. • Purchases of imported goods
• Purchases of imported services e.g. transportation
• It is used to summarize all international economic and travel expenditures
transactions for that country during a specific time • Purchases of foreign financial assets
period, usually a year. • Payments received for exports
• It reflects all payments and liabilities to foreigners • Interest and principal received from debtors
(debits) and all payments and obligations received • Increase in debt owed by foreigners
from foreigners (credits). • Debt payments owed to foreigners
• Income paid on investments of foreigners
Data on trade and capital flows can be used by • Gifts to foreign residents
investors to evaluate an economy’s overall level of • Aid given by home government
capital investment, profitability, and risk. • Overseas investments by home country residents
CA measures the flow of goods and services. It has four A German company sells technology equipment to a
sub-accounts: South Korean auto manufacturer for a total price =
EUR50 million.
1. Merchandise trade includes commodities and
manufactured goods bought, sold, or given away. EUR50 million includes freight charges of EUR 1 million to
2. Services include tourism, transportation, engineering, be paid within 90 days.
and business services i.e. legal services, management
consulting, and accounting, fees from patents and The merchandise will be shipped via a German cargo
copyrights on new technology, software, books, and ship.
movies.
3. Income receipts include income derived from Hence, Germany is exporting two assets i.e.
ownership of assets i.e. dividends & interest payments.
4. Unilateral transfers (i.e. one-way transfers of assets)
1) Equipment
include worker remittances from abroad to their
2) Transportation services (cargo ship service)
home country and foreign direct aid or gifts.
1. Capital transfers include debt forgiveness, transfer of In order to make payments to German company, South
goods and financial assets belonging to migrants as Korean auto manufacturer may purchase Euros from its
they leave or enter the country, transfer of title to local bank (i.e., a EUR demand deposit held by the
fixed assets, transfer of funds linked to the sale or Korean bank in a German bank) and pay them to
acquisition of fixed assets, gift and inheritance taxes, German exporter.
death duties, uninsured damage to fixed assets, and
legacies. Germany would record following:
2. Sales and purchases of non-produced, non-financial
assets i.e. rights to natural resources, and the sale and
purchase of intangible assets i.e. patents, copyrights, • To show an increase in financial asset → EUR 50
trademarks, franchises, and leases. million debit to an account named "'private short-
term claims”.
• To show decrease in assets:
o EUR49 million credit to an account named "good”.
o EUR 1 million credit to an account named
Reading19 International Trade and Capital Flows FinQuiz.com
• An increase in German holdings of Ukrainian bonds Closed economy: In a closed economy, all output (Y) is
will be recorded as debit. consumed or invested by the private sector (i.e.
• An increase in demand deposits held by Ukrainians domestic households and businesses) or purchased by
in German banks will be recorded as credit. the government.
Y=C+I+G+(X–M)
• An increase of EUR20 million in German liabilities will
be recorded as debit.
Current Account Balance (X – M): A country has a:
• A decrease in short-term liabilities held by private
foreigners (i.e., Swiss private investors) would be
Current account deficit if imports > exports. It pays for
recorded as credit.
the deficit by
We can decompose consumption as follows: Hence, current account deficit (surplus) tends to result
from:
Consumption = Income + transfers – taxes – saving
C=Yd - Sp =Y+R-T-Sp i. Low (high) private savings
ii. High (low) private investment
And, iii. Government deficit (surplus) i.e. Sg< 0 (Sg> 0)
iv. Or a combination of the three
CA = Sp- I+ Government surplus (or government saving)
= Sp- I+ (T- G- R)
Sp + Sg = I + CA
• If trade deficit is due to scarce savings (Sp + Sg), then
where, economy’s capacity to repay its liabilities from future
production remains unchanged.
Sg = government savings • If trade deficit is due to strong investments, then an
This implies that, economy can improve its repaying capacity or
increase its productive assets.
• An open economy can use its saving for: • Current account deficit tends to reflect a strong
o Domestic investment domestic economy, strong domestic credit
o Foreign investment demand, high interest rates and appreciating
• Whereas, a closed economy can use its savings only domestic currency.
for domestic investments. • However, it should be noted that a persistent current
• An open economy can increase investment by account deficit leads to a depreciating currency in
increasing foreign borrowing (i.e. decrease in CA) the long-run.
without increasing domestic savings.
5. TRADE ORGANIZATIONS
International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB), and 4. To promote international monetary cooperation to
World Trade Organization (WTO) are the three deal with international monetary problems.
organizations that set the rules for the international 5. To ensure exchange stability and orderly exchange
trade. arrangements to
Sources of funds available to IMF: Member countries Affiliated entities of the World Bank: The World Bank has
provide IMF a pool of gold and currencies that it can use two closely affiliated entities:
for lending purposes.
i. The International Bank for Reconstruction and
The IMF has redefined and deepened its operations by Development (IBRD)
following ways: ii. The International Development Association (IDA)
• Regulates cross-border trade relationships among Examples of Rounds of Negotiations that took place
countries. under the GATT:
• Serves as the forum for trade negotiations among
countries. • Tokyo round (1970s): To deal with a wide range of
• Monitors a global policy setting to promote coherent non-tariff trade barriers.
and transparent trade policies. • Uruguay round (1986): To deal with agriculture and
• Serves as a major source of economic research and textiles trade issues, intellectual property rights and
analysis. trade in services.
Objectives of WTO: WTO’s goal is to expand trade and Example of Ongoing round of negotiations under WTO:
improve world living standards by establishing trade
policies i.e. • Doha round: Its objective is to enhance globalization
by reducing barriers and subsidies in agriculture and
• Promoting free trade. to deal with a wide range of cross-border services.
• Eliminating barriers to trade (e.g. quotas, duties and
tariffs). Role of the WTO from an investment perspective: The
• Settling trade disputes among countries. WTO provides the major institutional and regulatory base
• Eliminating trade discrimination through most to facilitate establishment of multinational corporations.
favored nation (i.e. treating every country equally). Stocks and bonds of these multinational corporations
• Providing technical cooperation and training to represent the key elements in investment portfolios.
developing, least-developed, and poor countries.
• Cooperating with the other two Briton Woods NOTE:
institutions, the IMF and the World Bank.
The GATT still exists in the form of an updated version of
1994 and it is the WTO's principal treaty for trade in
goods.
Practice: Example 13
Volume 2, Reading19.