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    Currency Street: The Greenback Up Amidst Disappointing June Data

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    विवेक कुमार मुकेश
    The US dollar gained strength against major currencies amid disappointing US jobs data and the ECB's decision to hold interest rates. The dollar index rose 0.2% and the dollar gained against the euro, pound, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar. Stock markets in Europe and Asia traded weakly adding to concerns about the depth of the global recession, though the Indian stock market rose on optimism from the railway budget. Bond yields in India dropped and trading volumes doubled to Rs 20,000 crore.

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    Currency Street: The Greenback Up Amidst Disappointing June Data

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    विवेक कुमार मुकेश
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    The US dollar gained strength against major currencies amid disappointing US jobs data and the ECB's decision to hold interest rates. The dollar index rose 0.2% and the dollar gained against the euro, pound, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar. Stock markets in Europe and Asia traded weakly adding to concerns about the depth of the global recession, though the Indian stock market rose on optimism from the railway budget. Bond yields in India dropped and trading volumes doubled to Rs 20,000 crore.

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    The US dollar gained strength against major currencies amid disappointing US jobs data and the ECB's decision to hold interest rates. The dollar index rose 0.2% and the dollar gained against the euro, pound, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar. Stock markets in Europe and Asia traded weakly adding to concerns about the depth of the global recession, though the Indian stock market rose on optimism from the railway budget. Bond yields in India dropped and trading volumes doubled to Rs 20,000 crore.

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    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    19 views5 pages

    Currency Street: The Greenback Up Amidst Disappointing June Data

    Uploaded by

    विवेक कुमार मुकेश
    The US dollar gained strength against major currencies amid disappointing US jobs data and the ECB's decision to hold interest rates. The dollar index rose 0.2% and the dollar gained against the euro, pound, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar. Stock markets in Europe and Asia traded weakly adding to concerns about the depth of the global recession, though the Indian stock market rose on optimism from the railway budget. Bond yields in India dropped and trading volumes doubled to Rs 20,000 crore.

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    of 5

    Currency Street

    The greenback up amidst disappointing June data: Disappointing jobs data in US and the European
    Central Banks decision to hold the interest rates at current level raised concerns about the pace of
    economic recovery and helped dollar gain against major currencies. Investor find safety in Dollar in
    turbulent economic times thus strengthening the Dollar.

    • The Dollar index stood at 80.165 gaining 0.2% this week.


    • The Euro was trading at $1.4027 against Wednesday’s close of $1.4156 down about 0.6% this
    week.
    • The Pound was trading at $1.6379 from $ 1.6393 down 0.9% this week. The Pound is set for its
    first weekly loss in one month on account gloomy economic condition in Europe’s second largest
    economy.
    • The greenback also showed strength and gained almost 1% against Canadian and New Zealand
    Dollar.
    • Among all the major currencies Dollar gained maximum against the Japanese Yen and was
    trading at 95.88 yen against Wednesday’s close of 96.59 yen. The Dollar has gained 1.5% against
    the Yen this week.

    USD-EUR USD-YEN

    (S1) $1.3943 (R1) $1.4109 RSI (14) 44.2149 (S1) 95.45 (R1) 96.64 RSI (14) 47.7345

    USD-GBP Dollar Index

    (S1) $1.6310 (R1) $1.6487 RSI (14) 44.0031


    *Spot Prices as on 3 July 2009

    Rupee ends lower: Indian Rupee closed marginally on Thursday to end at 47.94/dollar against
    Wednesday close 47.89 per dollar as the greenback gained strength overseas. The volatile trade in the
    domestic equity market had its effect on the rupee which swinged from intraday high of 47.72 to 48.03
    against the greenback.

    *Values as on 2nd JULY

    Technical’s
    • Rupee is expected to trade in the range of 47.85-48.25 on Friday whereas the monthly range is
    46.60-49.00.
    • Forward premium eased on account of export coverings and are likely to decline as exporter are
    likely to sell forward dollars noting weakness in spot rupee.
    • The USD-INR is expected to have a support level at 47.85 an resistance at 48.25.The Relative
    strength Index (14 trading days) is at 57.16.

    Indicative Forward rates

    Month For Export For Import Fwd. Premium


    Jul-09 48.03 48.35 0.09
    Aug-09 48.11 48.47 0.17
    Sep-09 48.22 48.59 0.28
    Oct-09 48.32 48.71 0.38
    Nov-09 48.42 48.83 0.48
    Dec-09 48.52 48.95 0.58
    MARKET INDICATORS:
    Commodities Last Change
    US ECONOMY STATITSTIC Last Change
    Brent Crude Oil $65.95 -2.71
    US unemployment -June09 9.05% 0.10%
    NYMEX CRUDE OIL $66.72 -0.01
    Housing starts ,Annual rate, May 5,32,000 78%
    Core US CPI rate ,MAY -0.10% -0.20% SILVER ,Mini $/oz 13.393 -0.347
    US Real GDP Chng-Qtr,March -5.50% 0.80% Gold,Mini $/oz 929 -10.10

    KEY RATES last Change Bond Price Yield


    Fed Prime Rate 3.25% 0.00%
    10 Year UK 106.11 3.74
    Canada Bank Rate 2.25% 0.00%
    UK Base Rate 0.50% 0.00% 10 Year German 101.31 3.34
    ECB Key Int. Rate 1.00% 0.00% 10 Year French 104.39 3.71
    USD 6mnth LIBOR 1.079% 0.00%
    10 Year Italian 99.13 4.4
    5 year Treasury 2.42% -0.10%
    10 year Treasury 3.49% -0.05% 10 Year USA 106.16 3.73

    INDEX SCAN: Stock markets in Europe and Asia traded weak on Friday amidst poor report on retail sales
    and the service industry adding concern that first global recession after the Second World War is
    looming large and might not be over easily. The MSCI World Index which comprises of 1654 companies
    in 23 developed nations fell by 1.8% this week. The Indian equity market however reversed the trend
    and showed optimism mainly on account of Railway Budget announced by the central government.

    Index Closing value Points Percentage


    Sensex 14,913.05 254.56 1.74%
    Nifty 4424.25 75.4 1.73%
    Hang sen index 18,203.40 25.35 0.14%
    Strait times 2,299.75 -21.07 -0.91%
    Nikkei 225 9,816.07 -60.08 -0.61%
    DAX INDEX 4,708.21 -10.28 -0.22%
    FTSE 100 4,236.28 2.01 0.05%
    CAC 40 3,119.51 3.10 0.10%
    Dow Jones 8,280.74 -223.32 -2.69%
    Nasdaq Composite 1,796.52 -49.2 -2.73%
    MONEY MARKET

    • The US treasury department is reported to being its program regarding purchase of mortgage
    backed securities from banks worth about $20 billion down from $100 billion as announced in
    March this year.

    • Indian Bond market witnessed huge trading volumes on Thursday with the volumes touching Rs
    20,000 crore worth of securities changing hands, double of usual volume.

    • Yields on the 6.07% note due in May 2014 dropped 28 basis points this week to 6.23%.

    • The Economic survey giving a positive outlook on the economy boosted sentiment and
    increased momentum driving heavy volumes.

    Key Indian Monetary Rates


    Bank rate 6.00%
    Repo rat 4.75%
    Reverse repo rate 3.25%
    CRR 5%
    SLR 24%
    PLR 12.75%-13.25%
    Savings rate 3.50%
    Deposit rate 7.5%-9.6%
    8.24 GS 2018 7.3912%-7.6510%
    91 Day T Bill 4.5842%
    182 Day T Bill 4.6372%
    364 Day T Bill 4.5065%
    Call Rates 2.25%-4.30%
    Source: Reserve Bank of INDIA

    *Technical terms used in the News letter

    RSI-relative strength Index

    (R1)-resistance level

    (S1)-support level

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