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Event Tree Analysis Part 1

event tree analysis example

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49 views17 pages

Event Tree Analysis Part 1

event tree analysis example

Uploaded by

itszoey
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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EVENT TREE ANALYSIS

Event Tree Analysis


 An accidental event is defined as the first significant
deviation from a normal situation that may lead to
unwanted consequences (e.g., gas leak, falling object,
start of fire)

 An accidental event may lead to many different


consequences. The potential consequences may be
illustrated by a consequence spectrum
Consequence Spectrum
 Event tree analysis is a binary form of a decision tree for
evaluating the various multiple decision paths in a given
problem
 It evolved from studies involving nuclear power plant in the
1970’s.
Event Tree Analysis
 An event tree is a visual representation of all the events
which can occur in a system.
 The goal of an event tree is to determine the probability of
an event based on the outcomes of each event in the
chronological sequence of events leading up to it.
 As the number of events increases, the picture fans out like
the branches of a tree.
 By analyzing all possible outcomes, you can determine the
percentage of outcomes which lead to the desired result.
Generic Example
Example: Fire
Example: Explosion
Steps in Constructing Event Tree
1. Identify (and define) a relevant accidental (initial) event that may give
rise to unwanted consequences
2. Identify the barriers that are designed to deal with the accidental event
3. Construct the event tree
4. Describe the (potential) resulting accident sequences
5. Determine the frequency of the accidental event and the (conditional)
probabilities of the branches in the event tree
6. Calculate the probabilities/frequencies for the identified consequences
(outcomes)
7. Compile and present the results from the analysis
Accidental Event
 When defining an accident event, we should answer the following
questions:
• What type of event is it? (e.g., leak, fire)
• Where does the event take place? (e.g., in the control room)
• When does the event occur? (e.g., during normal operation, during
maintenance)

 In practical applications there are sometimes discussions about what


should be considered an accidental event (e.g., should we start with a
gas leak, the resulting fire or an explosion). Whenever feasible, we
should always start with the first significant deviation that may lead to
unwanted consequences.
Accidental Event
 An accidental event may be caused by:
• System or equipment failure
• Human error
• Process upset
 The accidental event is normally “anticipated”. The system designers
have put in barriers that are designed to respond to the event by
terminating the accident sequence or by mitigating the consequences
of the accident
 For each accidental event we should identify:
• The potential accident progression(s)
• System dependencies
• Conditional system responses
Barriers
 Most well designed systems have one or more barriers to stop or
reduce the consequences of potential accidental events.
 Barriers may be technical and/or administrative (organizational).
 The barriers that are relevant for a specific accidental event should be
listed in the sequence they will be activated.
 Examples include:
• Automatic detection systems (e.g., fire detection)
• Automatic safety systems (e.g., fire extinguishing)
• Alarms warning personnel/operators
• Procedures and operator actions
• Mitigating barriers
Additional Events/Factors
 Additional events and/or factors should be listed together with the
barriers, as far as possible in the sequence when they may take place.

 Some examples of additional events/factors were given on a previous


slide
Event Sequence
 Each barrier should be described by a (negative) statement, e.g.,
“Barrier X does not function” (This means that barrier X is not able to
performs its required function(s) when the specified accidental event
occurs in the specified context).
 Additional events and factors should also be described by (worst case)
statements, e.g., gas is ignited, wind blows toward dwelling area.
Outcome Alternatives
 In most applications only two alternatives (“true” and “false”) are
considered. It is, however, possible to have three or more alternatives,
as shown in the example below:
End Outcomes
 In practice, many event trees are ended before the “final”
consequences are reached
 Including these “final” consequences may give very large event trees
that are impractical for visualization
 This is solved by establishing a consequence distribution for each end
event and the probability of each consequence is determined for each
end event
 In effect, this is an extension of the event tree, but it gives a more
elegant and simpler presentation and also eases the summary of the
end results
Results in Decision Making
 The results from the event tree analysis may be used to:
• Judge the acceptability of the system
• Identify improvement opportunities
• Make recommendations for improvements
• Justify allocation of resources for improvements
Pros and Cons of ETA
 Positive
• Visualize event chains following an accidental event
• Visualize barriers and sequence of activation
• Good basis for evaluating the need

 Negative
• No standard for the graphical representation of the event tree
• Only one initiating event can be studied in each analysis
• Easy to overlook subtle system dependencies
• Not well suited for handling common cause failures in the quantitative
analyses
• The event tree does not show acts of omission

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