Randomness, Theoretical, Experimental and True Probability

Randomness, Theoretical, Experimental and True Probability
With Mathematics and Statistics there are two types of models we can have when looking at
Situations: deterministic and probabilistic.
Deterministic models always produce the same result for a particular input. They do not
take into account randomness and are often expressed as a formula.
Probabilistic models take uncertainties into account. This is often done by assigning
probabilities to each of the different outcomes. These models take into account
randomness.
Randomness is the idea that although each outcome of a process has a fixed probability, the
actual outcome of any trial of the process cannot be predicted. In this paper we focus solely
on probabilistic models. What we try and do with our probabilistic model is estimate the
true probability of an event occurring.
True probability is the (almost always) unknown actual probability that an event will
happen. The true probability of a particular coin landing heads up may be affected by the
shape of the coin, errors in its manufacture and many other factors, so may not be exactly
as we work out.
There are two types of probability we use to estimate the true probability... these are:
theoretical probability and experimental probability.
Theoretical probability is what we expect to happen in “theory”. If we stay looking at our
coin example, we expect that a coin will land on heads 50% of the time, or 0.5. This is a
theoretical estimate of the true probability.
Experimental probability is the probability based on a number of trials or simulations of the
event: how many times the event happens divided by the number of trials or simulations we
did. The more trials or simulations you do the closer the experimental probability will get to
the true probability, and often it will get close to the theoretical probability as well,
assuming the theoretical model was a good model. Looking at our coin example, if we took a
coin and flipped it 20 times, and 11 of those times it came up with a head, we would have
an experimental probability of 11/20 or 0.55.
Depending on the situation sometimes it is easier to run a simulation rather than doing the
trials in real life. This is often done using random number generators on either calculators or
computers.
Venn Diagrams.
Venn diagrams are a way of representing the different sets of information. They can be used
in situations other than probability.
Def- diagram representing mathematical or logical sets pictorially as circles or closed curves
within an enclosing rectangle (the universal set), common elements of the sets being
represented by intersections of the circles
Q1. Twenty-four dogs are in a kennel. Twelve of the dogs are black, six of the dogs have
short tails, and fifteen of the dogs have long hair. There is only one dog that is black with a
short tail and long hair. Two of the dogs are black with short tails and do not have long
hair. Two of the dogs have short tails and long hair but are not black. If all of the dogs in
the kennel have at least one of the mentioned characteristics, how many dogs are black
with long hair but do not have short tails?
Terminology
Union and intersection
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB)
Complement
And there is a special way of saying "everything that is not", and it is called "complement".
We show it by writing a little "C" or “ ’ ” like this:
Sc
Probability trees
Probability trees are great for when you have more than one event which follow on from
each other. There are two types of tree diagrams: one where all the probabilities are equal,
and one where they can change.
Q1. The letters in BUMBLEBEE are written on 9 balls and put into a bag. Two are drawn out,
and they are either a “B” or not a “B”. In probability we will often write the opposite of an
event as the event with a ‘ (pronounced dash). So in this case we have B and B’ (B-dash).The
tree would look like this:
a. What is the probability of getting two “B”s?

b. What is the probability of getting exactly one “B”?
c. What is the probability of getting at least one “B”?
Q2. I have a standard pack of 52 cards.
a. If I draw two cards out what is the probability of them both being black?
b. If I draw three cards out what is the probability of them all being black?
c. If I draw two cards out, how likely is it they are both a face card (King, Queen or Jack)?
Q3. Jane and Vikki are playing each other in tennis. The probability that Jane wins the first
set is 0.5. If Jane wins a set the probability she wins the next set is 0.6, otherwise it is 0.35.
In a women’s tennis game you play the best of three sets, so you stop playing once one
player has won two sets. What is the probability:
a. Jane wins the first two sets?
b. The game goes to three
Complementary, Independent and Mutually Exclusive Events
There are three other pieces of terminology that we need to know that relate to types of
events in probability. These are complementary, independent and mutually exclusive
events.
Complementary events are events that are the opposite to each other. For example heads
and tails on a coin, or A and A’.
Independent events are events where the outcome of one does do not affect the
probability of the other. There is a statistical formula to check if two events are
independent, this is
P(A) x P(B) = P(A ∩ B)
Example 1: are a “day being sunny” and a “day being a weekday” independent? To check if these
events are independent or not we can check if the formula
P(A) x P(B) = P(A ∩ B)
P(A) = P(Day is a Weekday) = 5/7
P(B) = P(Day is Sunny) = 1/5

P(A ∩ B) = P(Weekday ∩ Sunny) = 1/7
P(A) x P(B) = 5/7 x 1/5 = 1/7 Therefore they are independent.
Mutually Exclusive events are events that cannot both happen. Complementary events
must be mutually exclusive. For mutually exclusive events P(A ∩ B) = 0 This means if you
were to draw a Venn diagram for it the circles would not overlap:
A student could be in a Maths class at the moment or an English class, but couldn’t be both in an
English and a Maths class at the same time (but could be in another class like Science) If we were to
look at this table:

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Randomness, Theoretical, Experimental and True Probability

P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB)

We show it by writing a little "C" or “ ’ ” like this:

a. What is the probability of getting two “B”s?

Complementary, Independent and Mutually Exclusive Events

P(A) x P(B) = P(A ∩ B)

P(A) x P(B) = P(A ∩ B)

P(A) = P(Day is a Weekday) = 5/7

P(B) = P(Day is Sunny) = 1/5

P(A) x P(B) = 5/7 x 1/5 = 1/7 Therefore they are independent.

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