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    Naïve Model Period A. Demand Forecast F.Error Bs. Forecast Mse Percentage Error

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    Kristine Catarining
    This document compares the forecasting accuracy of three different models: a naïve model, weighted moving average, and simple exponential smoothing. It provides the actual demand, forecast, forecast error, mean squared error, and percentage error for each period under each model. The weighted moving average and simple exponential smoothing models had lower overall mean squared errors and percentage errors than the naïve model, demonstrating improved forecasting accuracy over the naïve approach.

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    Naïve Model Period A. Demand Forecast F.Error Bs. Forecast Mse Percentage Error

    Uploaded by

    Kristine Catarining
    39 views6 pages
    This document compares the forecasting accuracy of three different models: a naïve model, weighted moving average, and simple exponential smoothing. It provides the actual demand, forecast, forecast error, mean squared error, and percentage error for each period under each model. The weighted moving average and simple exponential smoothing models had lower overall mean squared errors and percentage errors than the naïve model, demonstrating improved forecasting accuracy over the naïve approach.

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    Management science

    Original Title

    Forecasting

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    This document compares the forecasting accuracy of three different models: a naïve model, weighted moving average, and simple exponential smoothing. It provides the actual demand, forecast, forecast error, mean squared error, and percentage error for each period under each model. The weighted moving average and simple exponential smoothing models had lower overall mean squared errors and percentage errors than the naïve model, demonstrating improved forecasting accuracy over the naïve approach.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    39 views6 pages

    Naïve Model Period A. Demand Forecast F.Error Bs. Forecast Mse Percentage Error

    Uploaded by

    Kristine Catarining
    This document compares the forecasting accuracy of three different models: a naïve model, weighted moving average, and simple exponential smoothing. It provides the actual demand, forecast, forecast error, mean squared error, and percentage error for each period under each model. The weighted moving average and simple exponential smoothing models had lower overall mean squared errors and percentage errors than the naïve model, demonstrating improved forecasting accuracy over the naïve approach.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    of 6

    NAÏVE MODEL

    PERIOD A. DEMAND FORECAST F.ERROR BS. FORECAST MSE PERCENTAGE ERROR


    1 21 24.457
    2 25 25.247
    3 29 22.826
    4 21 21.986
    5 25 20.306
    6 20 18.945
    7 18 19.224
    8 21 18.448
    9 20 16.563
    10 19 13.792
    11 18 9.250
    12 15 2.500
    ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR
    WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE
    PERIOD A. DEMAND FORECAST F.ERROR BS. FORECAST MSE
    1 21
    2 25
    3 29
    4 21 26.33 -5.33 5.33 28.44
    5 25 24.33 0.67 0.67 0.44
    6 20 24.33 -4.33 4.33 18.78
    7 18 21.83 -3.83 3.83 14.69
    8 21 19.83 1.17 1.17 1.36
    9 20 19.83 0.17 0.17 0.03
    10 19 20.00 -1.00 1.00 1.00
    11 18 19.67 -1.67 1.67 2.78
    12 15 18.67 -3.67 3.67 13.44
    16.67 80.97
    PERCENTAGE ERROR Absolute Percentage Error

    -0.25 0.25
    0.03 0.03
    -0.22 0.22
    -0.21 0.21
    0.06 0.06
    0.01 0.01
    -0.05 0.05
    -0.09 0.09
    -0.24 0.24
    -0.98 0.98
    PERIOD A.DEMAND FORECAST F.ERROR ABS.FORECAST MSE PERCENTAGE ERROR
    1 35
    2 37
    3 38
    4 40 37.17 2.83 2.83 8.03 7%
    5 35 38.83 -3.83 3.83 14.69 -11%
    6 32 37.17 -5.17 5.17 26.69 -16%
    7 39 34.33 4.67 4.67 21.78 12%
    8 42 36.00 6.00 6.00 36.00 14%
    9 39 39.33 -0.33 0.33 0.11 -1%
    10 36 40.00 -4.00 4.00 16.00 -11%
    11 42 38.00 4.00 4.00 16.00 10%
    12 39 39.50 -0.50 0.50 0.25 -1%
    340.33 3.67 31.33 139.56 3%
    ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR

    7%
    11%
    16%
    12%
    14%
    1%
    11%
    10%
    1%
    83%

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