Financial Modling Exercise
Financial Modling Exercise
Please go to "Tools", "Options", "Calculation". In the "Calculation" tab, please set it to "automatic" calculation and "iteration" of 500.
For Apple computers, please go to 'Excel", "Preferences", "Calculations", "Automatic", "use iterative calculations" and "iteration" of 500
Assumptions Tab
Income Statement
Revenue - Assume 5% growth rate in each year of the forecast period. Generally, revenue growth rate of a company will decline even if revenues are increasing.
COGS as % of Sales - Assume 40% for each year of the forecast period.
Depreciation % as of Gross P,P&E - Assume 2% for each year of the forecast period. NOTE that Gross PP&E will
number will come out initially to be $0, but Depreciation will automatically calculate once Gross PP&E is filled in later.
Amortization - No Amortization (enter $0 for each year).
SG&A as % of Sales - Assume 30% for each year of the forecast period.
Other Income (Expenses) - Assume $0 million for each year of the forecast period.
Tax Rate - Assume 40% for each year of the forecast period.
Balance Sheet
Days Accounts Receivable - Assume 30 days for each year of the forecast period.
Days Inventory - Assume 45 days for each year of the forecast period.
Other Current Assets - Assume $1.0 million for each year of the forecast period.
impairment of Goodwill - Assume $0 million for each year of the forecast period.
Capex as % of Sales - Assume 5% for each year of the forecast period.
Asset Disposition - Assume $0 for each year of the forecast period.
Days Payable - Assume 50 days for each year of the forecast period.
Accrued Liabilities as % of COGS - Assume 3% for each year of the forecast period.
Other Current Liabilities as a % of COGS - Assume 2% for each year of the forecast period.
Common Stock - Assume $10 million for each year of the forecast period.
LIBOR % (London InterBank Offered Rate) - It will increase 25 basis points (0.25%) every year after 2016
Interest Earned on Cash - It will increase 25 basis points every year after 2016.
Term Loan Amortization - Assume $20 million principal paydown (amortization) per year during the forecast period.
Unsecured Debt Amortization - Assume no paydown in principal during any year of the forecast period.
Page 1
FINANCIAL MODELING INSTRUCTIONS
Page 2
FINANCIAL MODELING INSTRUCTIONS
If your model has been constructed properly, it should "balance" - the check figures in each year at the bottom of your balance sheet should be "0".
Page 3
Generally, revenue growth rate of a company will decline even if revenues are increasing.
Page 4
check figures in each year at the bottom of your balance sheet should be "0".
Page 5
COMPANY A FINANCIAL MODEL
HISTORIC VARIABLES AND ASSUMPTIONS FOR PROJECTIONS
Revolver 2.0% + li 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Term Loan 2.5% + li 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Unsecured Debt 12.00% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%
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ASSUMPTIONS FOR PROJECTIONS
Fiscal Year Ending December 31,
2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P
30 30 30 30 30
45 45 45 45 45
$1.0 $1.0 $1.0 $1.0 $1.0
$0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
$0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
50 50 50 50 50
3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
$ 20.0 20 20 20 20
$ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Page 7
COMPANY A FINANCIAL MODEL
($ in millions)
HISTORICAL FINANCIAL STATEMENTSPROJECTED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
Fiscal Year Ending December 31, Fiscal Year Ending December 31,
2015A 2016A 2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P
Income Statement
Revenue $190.0 $200.0 $210.0 $220.5 $231.5 $243.1
% Growth 5.6% 5.3% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Cost of Goods Sold (1) $77.9 $80.0 $84.0 $88.2 $92.6 $97.2
COGS as % of Revenue 41.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%
Page 8
COMPANY A FINANCIAL MODEL
($ in millions)
HISTORICAL FINANCIAL STATEMENTSPROJECTED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
Fiscal Year Ending December 31, Fiscal Year Ending December 31,
2015A 2016A 2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P
Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Accounts Receivable $15.0 $16.0 $17.5 $18.4 $19.3 $20.3
Inventory $9.5 $10.0 $10.5 $11.0 $11.6 $12.2
Other Current Assets $1.0 $1.0 $1.0 $1.0 $1.0 $1.0
Total Current Assets $25.5 $27.0 $29.0 $30.4 $31.9 $33.4
Liabilities
Accounts Payable $10.0 $11.0 $11.7 $12.3 $12.9 $13.5
Accrued Liabilities $2.3 $2.4 $2.5 $2.6 $2.8 $2.9
Other Current Liabilities $1.0 $0.0 $1.7 $1.8 $1.9 $1.9
Total Current Liabilities $13.3 $13.4 $15.9 $16.7 $17.5 $18.4
Shareholders Equity
Retained Earnings $70.2 $93.9 $118.9 $146.3 $176.5 $209.6
Common Stock $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0
Total Shareholders Equity $80.2 $103.9 $128.9 $156.3 $186.5 $219.6
Total Liabilities and Equity $300.7 $310.2 $316.0 $321.6 $327.5 $333.8
Check $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
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COMPANY A FINANCIAL MODEL
($ in millions)
HISTORICAL FINANCIAL STATEMENTSPROJECTED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
Fiscal Year Ending December 31, Fiscal Year Ending December 31,
2015A 2016A 2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P
Cash Flow
Net Income $20.8 $23.7 $25.0 $27.5 $30.2 $33.1
Goodwill Impairment $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Plus / (minus):
Depreciation and Amortization $5.0 $5.0 $6.7 $6.9 $7.1 $7.4
Changes in Working Capital
Accounts Receivable ($1.0) ($1.0) ($1.5) ($0.9) ($0.9) ($1.0)
Inventory ($0.5) ($0.5) ($0.5) ($0.5) ($0.6) ($0.6)
Other Current Assets $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Accounts Payable $0.5 $1.0 $0.7 $0.6 $0.6 $0.6
Accrued Liabilities $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1
Other Current Liabilities ($1.0) ($1.0) $1.7 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1
Cash Flows from Operations $23.9 $27.3 $32.1 $33.7 $36.7 $39.8
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COMPANY A FINANCIAL MODEL
($ in millions)
HISTORICAL FINANCIAL STATEMENTSPROJECTED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
Fiscal Year Ending December 31, Fiscal Year Ending December 31,
2015A 2016A 2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P
Cash Before Revolver ($8.1) ($5.7) $1.6 $2.7 $5.1 $7.7
Debt and Interest Schedule
Revolver
Beginning Revolver Balance $29.1 $37.2 $42.9 $41.3 $38.6 $33.5
(Paydown) / Drawdown $8.1 $5.7 ($1.6) ($2.7) ($5.1) ($7.7)
Ending Revolver Balance $37.2 $42.9 $41.3 $38.6 $33.5 $25.8
Interest Rate 6.0% 6.0% 6.25% 6.50% 6.75% 7.00%
Interest Expense $2.0 $2.4 $2.6 $2.6 $2.4 $2.1
Term Loan
Term Loan Beginning Balance $140.0 $120.0 $100.0 $80.0 $60.0 $40.0
(Paydown) / Drawdown ($20.0) ($20.0) ($20.0) ($20.0) ($20.0) ($20.0)
Term Loan Ending Balance $120.0 $100.0 $80.0 $60.0 $40.0 $20.0
Interest Rate 6.50% 6.50% 6.75% 7.00% 7.25% 7.50%
Interest Expense $8.5 $7.2 $6.1 $4.9 $3.6 $2.3
Unsecured Debt
Unsecured Debt Beginning Balance $50.0 $50.0 $50.0 $50.0 $50.0 $50.0
(Paydown) / Drawdown $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Unsecured Debt Ending Balance $50.0 $50.0 $50.0 $50.0 $50.0 $50.0
Interest Rate 12.00% 12.00% 12.00% 12.00% 12.00% 12.00%
Interest Expense $6.0 $6.0 $6.0 $6.0 $6.0 $6.0
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STATEMENTS
cember 31,
2021P
$255.3
5.0%
$102.1
40.0%
$153.2
60.0%
$7.6
$0.0
$76.6
30.0%
$69.0
27.0%
$76.6
30.0%
5.0%
$8.3
$0.0
$8.3
$0.0
$60.7
$24.3
40.0%
$36.4
14.3%
9.9%
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STATEMENTS
cember 31,
2021P
$0.0
$21.3
$12.8
$1.0
$35.0
$381.2
$80.7
$300.5
$5.0
$340.6
$14.2
$3.1
$2.0
$19.3
$15.2
$0.0
$50.0
$84.5
$246.0
$10.0
$256.0
$340.6
$0.0
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STATEMENTS
cember 31,
2021P
$36.4
$0.0
$7.6
($1.0)
($0.6)
$0.0
$0.7
$0.1
$0.1
$43.3
($12.8)
$0.0
($12.8)
($10.6)
($20.0)
$0.0
($30.6)
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
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STATEMENTS
cember 31,
2021P
$10.6
$25.8
($10.6)
$15.2
7.25%
$1.5
$20.0
($20.0)
$0.0
7.75%
$0.8
$50.0
$0.0
$50.0
12.00%
$6.0
$8.3
$0.0
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COMPANY A DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW MODEL
($ in millions)
Net Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Less: Taxes
Tax-Adjusted EBIT
Less: Capital Expenditures
Less: (Increase)/Decrease in Working Capital
Plus: Depreciation and Amortization
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
Discount Period
Discount Factor
Present Value of Unlevered Free Cash Flow
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
DCF Assumptions
Tax Rate 40.0%
Discount rate 12.0%
Terminal multiple 7.0x
Valuation Date 12/31/2016
2021 EBITDA
Terminal multiple
Terminal value
Discount Period
Discount Factor
PV of terminal value
tiple
8.0x