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    Paul Tudor Jones The Great Liquidity Race

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    Peter Bullock
    1) Legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones believes we are in a "Great Liquidity Race" where central banks have unleashed unprecedented monetary stimulus, and the best assets are gold, emerging market stocks, and commodities. 2) Tudor Jones sees the US dollar continuing to weaken as global funds seek high-yielding assets, while gold remains a reliable store of value during times of crisis. 3) Tudor Jones' models suggest gold is undervalued by 20% over the next two years, and increasing investment demand for physical gold will outpace new supply, pushing prices higher than current levels.

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    Paul Tudor Jones The Great Liquidity Race

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    Peter Bullock
    667 views2 pages
    1) Legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones believes we are in a "Great Liquidity Race" where central banks have unleashed unprecedented monetary stimulus, and the best assets are gold, emerging market stocks, and commodities. 2) Tudor Jones sees the US dollar continuing to weaken as global funds seek high-yielding assets, while gold remains a reliable store of value during times of crisis. 3) Tudor Jones' models suggest gold is undervalued by 20% over the next two years, and increasing investment demand for physical gold will outpace new supply, pushing prices higher than current levels.

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    Paul Tudor Jones the Great Liquidity Race

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    1) Legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones believes we are in a "Great Liquidity Race" where central banks have unleashed unprecedented monetary stimulus, and the best assets are gold, emerging market stocks, and commodities. 2) Tudor Jones sees the US dollar continuing to weaken as global funds seek high-yielding assets, while gold remains a reliable store of value during times of crisis. 3) Tudor Jones' models suggest gold is undervalued by 20% over the next two years, and increasing investment demand for physical gold will outpace new supply, pushing prices higher than current levels.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    667 views2 pages

    Paul Tudor Jones The Great Liquidity Race

    Uploaded by

    Peter Bullock
    1) Legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones believes we are in a "Great Liquidity Race" where central banks have unleashed unprecedented monetary stimulus, and the best assets are gold, emerging market stocks, and commodities. 2) Tudor Jones sees the US dollar continuing to weaken as global funds seek high-yielding assets, while gold remains a reliable store of value during times of crisis. 3) Tudor Jones' models suggest gold is undervalued by 20% over the next two years, and increasing investment demand for physical gold will outpace new supply, pushing prices higher than current levels.

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    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 2

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    MARKET COMMENTARY

    November 1, 2009

    The Smart Money Series: Paul Tudor Jones – The Great Liquidity Race & Gold
    As part of the The Smart Money Series, a look at what the world’s most successful institutional money managers &
    hedge funds are doing, Anomalous Investments (“AI”) highlights some selective excerpts from the October 15th letter of
    legendary investor, Paul Tudor Jones and his Tudor Investment Corporation. Its market outlook and macro
    perspective was entitled The Great Liquidity Race: Wall of Money Climbs Wall of Worry.

    General Comments

     The forceful policy response to avert depression tail risks posed by the financial crisis has likely unleashed a
    wave of liquidity which is probably greater than that of 2001-2003.

     Tudor’s job is to identify the best performing assets of this “Great Liquidity Race”. At present, those assets
    are gold, emerging market equities denominated in local currencies, and commodity related stocks.

    View on US Dollar

     The US dollar will continue its path lower as global flows seek high yielding assets and sovereign reserve
    managers diversify their growing US dollar-based reserves. Reserve accumulation and diversification trends
    will be persistent and mutually reinforcing with the direction of the dollar.

    View on Gold

     During times of overt monetization, hyperinflation, or when questions arise about the stability of the
    banking system, gold prevails as a more reliable store of value. Gold has an economic value even in the
    worst of times.

     Compared to the long-run average, gold appears to be cheap. Gold’s value should increase as its scarcity
    relative to printed currencies increases.

     On the demand side, much of the recent move to record prices in gold reflects continued strong investment
    demand for physical gold in the face of heightened macro uncertainty and unprecedented, globally-
    coordinated monetary stimulus. The historical drivers of investment demand for gold seem to have
    simultaneously come together in 2009 and, in Tudor’s opinion, will continue to stimulate high levels of
    demand on a sustained basis going forward.

    Gold Price Outlook

     Tudor’s proprietary econometric model, which evaluates the impacts of inflation, M2 growth, and real rates
    on the price of gold, suggests – under the baseline macro scenario – that gold is 20% undervalued over the
    next 24 months.
    The Smart Money Series: Paul Tudor Jones – The Great Liquidity Race & Gold November 1, 2009

     In Tudor’s opinion, the scope for increased investment demand over the coming years is much stronger than
    the potential for new supply. As a result, incremental new demand must buy gold from current holders.
    With a macro backdrop that suggests gold is undervalued, the transfer of gold from current holders to its
    new owners will likely not occur at, or near, current prices.

    Summary & Implications

    The views of Tudor Investment Corporation are similar to those heard recently from other prominent hedge fund
    managers and institutional money managers such as John Paulson of Paulson & Co., and David Einhorn of Greenlight
    Capital.

    In this environment, investments in liquid gold securities and exchange-traded funds are, and will continue to be, in
    high demand. A review of SEC filings by Anomalous Investments of several prominent money managers shows that the
    following equities are the most popular amongst the bullish managers:

     SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

     I Shares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)

     Power Shares DB Gold Fund (DGL)

     Central Fund of Canada (CEF)

    Additionally, in the gold mining equities, prominent hedge fund managers including Paulson and Einhorn, have
    invested in the following:

     Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

     Kinross Gold (KGC)

    Finally, because the investable gold sector is relatively small, and because there is a scarcity of quality, liquid, gold
    mining companies, some are even willing to venture into Africa-focused miners including the following:

     AngloGold Ashanti (AU)

     Gold Fields (GFI)

     Harmony Gold (HMY)

    In summary, in The Great Liquidity Race, the smart money is clearly increasingly bullish on the prospects for gold.

    Matthew T. Schroeder is the President of Anomalous Investments (www.anomalousinvestments.com), an independent advisory service
    focused on uncovering select, under-researched Special Situations in the natural resources industry. Particular focus is on gold,
    silver, oil, natural gas and agriculture. He can be reached at [email protected].

    Disclosure: The author owns shares in GLD, CEF and DGL.

    Anomalous Investments 2 Special Situations for Sophisticated Investors

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