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Decision Trees Pohon Keputusan

Decision trees consist of three key elements: square decision nodes, circle probability nodes, and branches representing decision alternatives. The document provides an example decision tree to determine the best purchase option - apartment, office, or warehouse - based on the probability of good or poor economic conditions. It further demonstrates using decision trees to analyze the expected value of options and determine the highest valued choice considering uncertain future events and probabilities.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
64 views5 pages

Decision Trees Pohon Keputusan

Decision trees consist of three key elements: square decision nodes, circle probability nodes, and branches representing decision alternatives. The document provides an example decision tree to determine the best purchase option - apartment, office, or warehouse - based on the probability of good or poor economic conditions. It further demonstrates using decision trees to analyze the expected value of options and determine the highest valued choice considering uncertain future events and probabilities.

Uploaded by

YUSRIL
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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DECISION TREES

POHON KEPUTUSAN
Decision trees terdiri dari :
 Square decision nodes
 Circle probability nodes
 Branches as decision alternatives

State of Nature
Decision Good ec cond Poor ec con
(0,60) (0,40)
Apartment $ 50.000 30.000
Office 100.000 -40.000
Warehouse 30.000 10.000

1
Dengan contoh di atas, dapat dibuat decision tree sebagai berikut :
0.6 $ 50.000

2
30.000
Apartement 0.4

0.6 100.000

1 3
Office
- 40.000
Purchase 0.4

Warehouse 0.6 30.000

4
10.000
0.4

2
Expected value

$ 42.000 0.6 $ 50.000

2
30.000
Apartement 0.4

$ 44.000
0.6 100.000

1 3
Office
- 40.000
Purchase 0.4

$ 22.000
Warehouse 0.6 30.000

4
10.000
0.4

3
$ 2.000.000
Population
growth

0.6
2 0.4
Apartement No pop. growth 225.000 Pop.
- 800.000 growth $ 3.000.000

Build apart.
( - $ 800.000 ) 0.8
6
0.2

1 Pop. Growth (3
4 No pop. $ 700.000
years, $ 0
Purchase payoff)
growth

Sell land $ 450.000


Land
(-200.000) 0.6 Pop
growth $ 2.300.000
3
0.4
Dev. Comm. 0.3
( - $ 600.000) 7
0.7
No pop.
Growth (3 No pop.
years, $ 0 growth $ 1.000.000
payoff) 5

Sell land $ 210.000

4
5

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