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8 Dynamic Uncertainty Analysis

Dynamic uncertainty analysis uses reservoir simulation to quantify uncertainty in objective parameters like cumulative production from variations in reservoir model parameters. It requires more computation time than static uncertainty analysis. A two-step experimental design process is used to reduce simulation runs, first screening parameters with a two-level design, then refining key parameters with a three-level design. Results are used to build proxy models to represent the relationship between uncertain parameters and objectives. Software like PETREL, COUGAR, and ENABLE can automate the workflow and sampling of uncertain variables over defined uncertainty ranges.

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295 views9 pages

8 Dynamic Uncertainty Analysis

Dynamic uncertainty analysis uses reservoir simulation to quantify uncertainty in objective parameters like cumulative production from variations in reservoir model parameters. It requires more computation time than static uncertainty analysis. A two-step experimental design process is used to reduce simulation runs, first screening parameters with a two-level design, then refining key parameters with a three-level design. Results are used to build proxy models to represent the relationship between uncertain parameters and objectives. Software like PETREL, COUGAR, and ENABLE can automate the workflow and sampling of uncertain variables over defined uncertainty ranges.

Uploaded by

mangkoti
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© © All Rights Reserved
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8.

Dynamic Uncertainty Analysis


Definition
 Dynamic Uncertainty Analysis is the
uncertainty analysis using flow simulation
parameter as the objective parameters
 Common objective :
 Cumulative Oil/Water/Gas Production or EUR
 Plateau Production
Uncertain Parameters
 Model for History Match (i.e., Upscaled Static Model)
 Relative Permeability
 Capillary Pressure
 Aquifer (Size, Conductivity)
 Fault Transmissibility
 Transmissibility Adjustment
 Well Location and Perforation
 Production Scenarios :
 BHP
 Oil, Water, Gas Rate
 Water/Gas Injection Rate/Pressure
 THP (VFP)
Practical Issues
 Dynamic Uncertainty Analysis Requires Flow Simulation (e.g.,
using ECLIPSE, CMG, VIP, Streamline) to evaluate the
objective parameters
 Takes much more time than Static Uncertainty Analysis
 Use Two Step Experimental Design Process for Sampling
Technique in order to reduce the number of runs
 First Step :
 Two Level ED (PB or FF) using many uncertain parameters
 Objective : Sensitivity Analysis to Screen Uncertain Parameters
 Second Step :
 Three Level ED (BB or CC) using key uncertain parameters
 Objective : To get better predictive model
 Result from Uncertainty Analysis with Higher ED Level is used
as the main input for building the Proxy Model (Response
Surface Model, RSM).
 Software :
 PETREL, COUGAR, ENABLE, MEPO
Workflow (1)
Workflow (2)
PETREL Workflow Example
Uncertain Variables
Variable Uncertainty Range

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