World Energy Focus: "The Key Message From Paris: Be Part of The Innovation Frontier"
World Energy Focus: "The Key Message From Paris: Be Part of The Innovation Frontier"
World Energy Focus: "The Key Message From Paris: Be Part of The Innovation Frontier"
monthly insights from the Council’s global leadership community INSIDE THIS ISSUE
For sustainable energy.
Feature
a sustainable future, the answer is a
Special report World Energy
clear yes.
Council: Why energy storage
may be less expensive than
“Paris has made it absolutely clear
that we need to get started on the we think. 3
decarbonisation pathway. True, we A narrow focus on ‘levelised cost of
do not have an international carbon energy’ (LCOE) can be misleading
price, which would be the best when looking at the business case
solution for the energy sector. But we
Interview Christoph Frei, have a shadow price: we know that
for energy storage. This is one of the
Secretary General
major conclusions of a study carried
implementation of the INDC’s (national out by the World Energy Council into
World Energy Council climate plans) will reduce emissions
from 59 GT to 55 GT in 2030. That
the real costs of energy storage.
According to the study, many storage
may be a second-best solution, but it
innovation frontier”
requires high CO2 prices 5
Frei says the outcome of Paris exceeds
expectations. “A year ago, we hoped Power production at risk from
to get some 100 countries to submit an climate change 5
INDC. In the end we got 185 countries.
OPEC warns of future oil
Yes, there are gaps to be closed –
an ambition gap, a financing gap
shortage 6
Photo Grantly Lynch
– but there is a deal. That was never Energy prices plunge in 2015 6
obvious.” He adds that it was clear that
The key message of the COP21 Paris climate agreement is that business Does Paris provide a clear enough Paris was not going to lead to a clear US adopts “largest energy
should be part of the drive towards renewable energy and part of the signal for energy companies and carbon price. “That was not even on efficiency standard in history” 6
“innovation frontier”, says Christoph Frei, Secretary-General of the World investors to set them on a new the agenda.”
Energy Council in an interview with World Energy Focus. “The long road course for the future? That is after News in brief 6
from Paris is to build on the best technology, to develop and deploy all what the energy sector has been If you were CEO of a big energy
innovation. If you are not on the forefront of this, you may not be around asking for [http://bit.ly/1K1zpHL] company, what would you do now?
in the foreseeable future.” Frei (47), who has been the Council’s leader most of all from policymakers: an “You have to put another piece in there Country Focus
since 2009, spells out what ‘Paris’ means for the utility sector, oil and gas end to uncertainty, predictable policy, that’s very important: innovation. The France’s pragmatic energy
companies, coal companies and investors. He notes the world is going balanced regulatory frameworks. INDCs are a commitment to promote transition 7
through a triple transition: a decarbonisation transition, a market design According to Christoph Frei, who has renewables and cleantech. You have to
transition and a resilience transition. To navigate these transitions, “you worked tirelessly to unite the global combine that with the innovation story.
have to be very clear on where your priorities are.” energy sector behind a vision towards Twenty countries > see page 2 Events 8
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cover story World Energy Focus #19 • january 2016 • page 2
are doubling their RD&D budget over will need gas in many economies for a faces great uncertainty, which was not years, we have made energy intensity hard by extreme weather events, such
the next five years. Industry leaders very long time. We also need the skills, a story the companies really wanted to gains of 1.3% per year on average. In as droughts and floods. You also see
have announced a Manhattan-type the investors, the policy measures, to hear. We could not support the logic the decade before 2000 it was 1.6%, that in parts of Asia and Africa. People
innovation drive. If you are not on the deliver this backbone. So these players of the industry that coal is needed are becoming aware that the unlikely
forefront of that as an energy company, have their justification as well.” to provide access to energy for the events of yesterday have become
you are going to lose out. There may poor. This certainly does not apply in “I think today’s reality. That affects the way
be no legally binding deal to force you sub-Saharan Africa, which has a rural they look at climate change. But the
to do things, but if you are not part of
Utility companies may be able to
split up, but what about oil and gas agenda, not the centralised one that
it’s a mistake biggest change I’ve seen is in business.
the innovation frontier, you may not be companies? coal stands for. And we said that CCS to call People are now looking at renewables
around in the foreseeable future. That “The demand for oil is mostly driven by (carbon capture and storage) would as a business model in many more
is the biggest outcome of Paris. It’s transport. If you get growth in natural not be as easily picked up as many energy efficiency a places than before.
a huge pressure but also a massive gas, biofuels and e-mobility, you will were claiming. So it is not easy to have low-hanging fruit”
opportunity.” want to make sure as a company that a view of a prosperous future for coal. How do you see the activities of the
has infrastructure that you can use and Companies need to get really pro- World Energy Council develop with
We know there is a carbon budget monetise this infrastructure in the future active on CCS if they want to believe in regard to climate change?
now that will limit growth of fossil as well. You will want to have fuelling the future of their resource. If they don’t then in the first decade of the 2000s it What is important to understand is
fuels. How should companies active in stations that can offer a mix of fuels. come up with a coherent long-term was 1%, in 2010-2012 it was back up that after Paris the world is entering
fossil fuels deal with that? On the supply side, many international vision for CCS development, it’s going to 1.7%. Still, this is far below the 2.6% a triple transition. First the transition
“Well, a number of companies, such as oil companies are changing from oil to be difficult to do anything that shows which we assume in our scenarios of decarbonisation. Then there is
Eon and RWE, have already decided to gas but they are also investing in true scale and goes beyond a project and in the Sustainable Energy for All what you might call the market
to split off their fossil fuel activities. renewable energy. I expect some major by project approach.” programme. A much greater effort must design transition: the need for new
If you are coming from a traditional announcements on that front. On the be made. I think it’s a mistake to call regulatory frameworks and incentives
upstream side, some serious questions The World Energy Council has set up energy efficiency a low-hanging fruit. to adapt to the new realities caused
need to be asked. OPEC has been a Global Gas Centre [bit.ly/1O8gwqx] It requires complex cross-constituent by the renewable energy revolution.
“We could not ruled for a long time by the Hotelling to provide a better understanding of and cross-sectoral leadership, whether This goes much beyond electricity, it
logic [http://bit.ly/1OTuMAH], which it’s in transport, shipping, housing, and also affects gas, transport and other
support the logic holds that as the availability of a finite
the role of gas in the energy mix. Do
you see gas as a bridge to the future? so on. sectors. Third, there is the resilience
of the industry resource is reduced over time, its Gas is still a strong story for the near transition. This is where we are doing a
marginal value will go up (named after future. As a substitution for coal, but Do you think climate change has lot of work with our Financing Resilient
that coal is needed a theory of the US economist Harold also as a bridge in other areas, for become a bigger story lately in Energy Infrastructure project [http://
to provide access Hotelling, editor). The whole discussion example, in transport, or as storage developing countries and in resource- bit.ly/1OR78ej], where we look at the
on unburnable carbon destroys the medium for renewable energy. There rich countries that have traditionally impact of extreme weather events,
to energy Hotelling logic. Oil-rich countries will will be a lot of opportunities for gas. been defensive on this topic? cybersecurity threats and the energy-
for the poor” have to rethink the context in which This is why we have set up a Global A country like Saudi Arabia has water-food nexus on the energy sector.
they produce and this will weaken cartel Gas Centre. We believe gas has a key embraced solar energy and energy This implies a different way of thinking
thinking. The logic to produce as much role to play. efficiency, because they know if about infrastructure and critical
context, and you have to move to a as you can now is becoming stronger.” they don’t do that, it will limit their systems. To navigate these transitions
new environment, with different types What about energy efficiency?As usual export opportunities for oil. That’s with limited resources, you have to
of investors, different timeframes, What about coal companies, what we are not hearing much about that. not motivated by climate change of be very clear what your priorities are.
dealing directly with households, that future do they have? This is one area where reality has fallen course. If you look on the climate side, This is exactly what our scenarios, our
requires different skills. That said, we “In our latest scenarios report [http:// short of what he hoped for. Yes, we the biggest change I have seen is in work on the energy trilemma and on
will also need a system backbone. We bit.ly/1dfc9et] we already said coal are making progress. Over the last 20 Latin America, which has been hit resilience is about. ●
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feature World Energy Focus #19 • january 2016 • page 3
Why energy storage storage is regarded as too expensive. “There are four different elements in
the energy system: conventional and
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feature World Energy Focus #19 • january 2016 • page 4
Energy Storage storage system. “Storage can increase fees, in addition to the dues and fees Costs of storage set to About
Knowledge Network reliability, help reduce air pollution, the customer has to pay on electricity. decline 70%
The World Energy Council’s Storage lessen dependence on external This is a double burden which is not The Storage Network’s study not
World Energy Focus
Knowledge Network is one of the sources, help integrate other new justified.” We believe there should be a only shows that a narrow focus The World Energy Focus
15 knowledge networks currently renewable sources. LCoE alone does level playing field. And more should be on cost can be misleading, it also
magazine is published monthly by
operating within the World Energy concludes that costs will come down
not capture these values.” invested in R&D.” Energy Post Productions.
Council. They include networks on rapidly in the coming years!
Renewable Energy Sources (RES)
Systems Integration, Carbon Capture
According to the study, the The study has led the authors to The findings show a significant drop For more information please contact
and Storage, Oil, Gas and others. preoccupation with cost stems from a make three broad recommendations in cost for the majority of storage us at [email protected]
number of areas. First, it is a hangover for policymakers: technologies from 2015 to 2030.
The Storage Network was initiated from the renewables industry, “which To go beyond a narrow levelised Battery technologies show the
after the World Energy Congress tends to have a narrow focus on cost approach to storage technology greatest reduction in cost, followed Publishers
in Daegu, South Korea in 2013, LCoE due to benefiting from policy assessment. The renewables by sensible thermal, latent thermal Karel Beckman and
and became operational last year. mechanisms which derisk its revenue industry has become accustomed and supercapacitors. Battery Matthew James
Like all the Council’s Networks, it streams”. Second, it has to do with to technology assessment based on technologies show a reduction [email protected]
includes experts from across the from around 100-700 €/MWh in
the fact that “in most energy markets, levelised cost, where only the lowest Editor
world, both from companies as well 2015 to 50-190 €/MWh in 2030;
flexibility is not sufficiently valued or cost technologies are rewarded. This Karel Beckman
as academia. Companies active in this is a reduction of over 70% in
the Storage Knowledge Network
monetised”. Too often, “industry is only LCoE assessment is then used to the upper cost limit in the next 15 [email protected]
include DNV GL (lead authorship), equipped to talk about one half of the inform policy development, so that the years. Sodium sulfur (NaS), lead World Energy Council
PwC (which made a significant profit formula: cost”, the study notes. cheapest technologies are promoted. acid and lithium-ion technologies Kristina Acker
contribution towards the cost But this approach won’t cut it for leading the way. Pumped storage
[email protected]
analysis), Siemens, Voith, Iberdrola, storage. The cheapest technologies shows the lowest cost reduction, due
Enel Green Power, and others. might not necessarily deliver the to the current maturity level of the
Storage is usually not greatest value. technology, followed by compressed
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[email protected]
The Storage Network’s study, ‘Wind
and solar with storage: shifting
getting the same kind air energy storage.
To examine storage through holistic Subscribe for free:
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published on 19 January, looks at
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with solar and storage with wind. The best way to understand the operators and regulators. The growth
value of storage is to consider of deployment in variable renewables is [email protected]
Policy recommendations specific applications - such as solar creating new urgency around flexibility
Back issues:
Schiffer says policymakers and in combination with storage - or markets, including the need to ensure
www.worldenergyfocus.org
regulators should look at the broader else specific services being offered that ancillary services markets are
picture when designing regulatory by storage - such as frequency designed so as to be a level playing Design & DTP
frameworks. “Storage is usually not response. It is also important that these field for all. The development of Ron Wolak at Stap2.nu
getting the same kind of policy support case studies are not examined in a flexibility markets will help address the www.stap2.nu
as renewables or as other flexibility geographic vacuum: the local energy revenue risk associated with storage
options like demand response. In market is what critically determines the plant. As clearer monetary signals are
many countries energy storage is seen revenue available for each service. assigned to flexibility services, this will
as belonging to end customers. That increase the energy sector’s literacy on
means: the electricity which is taken To accelerate the development of flexibility, and help to build the business
into storage is charged with dues and flexibility markets, working with case for storage. ●
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News Focus World Energy Focus #19 • january 2016 • page 5
CEOs of utilities: Power production at risk from climate change (IIASA), one of the authors, said in a
change requires high CO2 prices More than 80% of thermal power have brought together their results in
press release that “in particular the
US, southern South America, southern
stations and 61-74% of hydropower two maps as shown below. Africa, central and southern Europe,
A new survey by the Global Electricity Initiative (GEI) of electric power stations in the world will suffer Southeast Asia and southern Australia
utilities reveals that the real price of CO 2 is a fundamental trigger for them decreases in usable capacity as a According to the research, lower are vulnerable regions.”
to change their business model. 40% of CEOs surveyed said they need a result of climate change, according to a water availability and higher water
price of over $100/tonne to make them change their business model, far new paper published in Nature Climate temperatures will lead to an average The research confirms the findings of
higher than current market prices. Change [http://bit.ly/1Urc8nY]. annual reduction in power of 7-12% a study by the World Energy Council
The reasons are changes in water for thermal plants and 1-4% for published in September last year,
The GEI, led by the World Energy on greenhouse gas emissions availability and higher water tempera hydropower plants. In some months which alerted the world to the risks
Council and the World Business reduction a priority. For them the real tures as a result of global warming. capacity reductions could exceed 30%. of extreme weather events for the
Council for Sustainable Development, price of CO2 is a fundamental to trigger Dr Michelle van Vliet of the International energy sector and the need to improve
aims to enhance electricity utilities’ a shift in utilities’ business models.” The researchers have investigated Institute of Applied Systems Analysis “resilience”. ●
efforts to ensure reliable electricity 1400 thermal power plants and 25,000
supply, improve access and mitigate Altogether 94% of CEOs participating in hydropower systems, representing
the impacts of climate change. The the survey confirmed that their compa- 28% and 78% of global capacity. They
utilities participating in the GEI are nies are already being affected by
from countries that together account extreme weather events. All of them re- Where climate change
for more than 80% of global installed sponded that they are regularly consulting could hit electricity production
generation capacity and the CEOs who and working with governments on
have completed the survey come from the development of energy policies,
five continents. strategies and regulations.
Global Electricity Initiative, said: “Our national level Impacts of climate and water resources change on annual average usable capacity of exsisting traditional
survey shows that utilities consider the • 72% of utility companies have Visit http://bit.ly/1oa3z30 for more power stations [upper map] and hydropower plants [lower map]. Results are for the 2050s [2040-69], under a
high emission scenario [RCP8.5] and relatieve to 1971-2000. Source: van Vliet et al. [2016]
introduction of a meaningful agreement already introduced voluntary information on GEI. ●
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News Focus World Energy Focus #19 • january 2016 • page 6
OPEC warns of future oil shortage Energy prices plunge in 2015 NEWS IN BRIEF
While oil prices continue to probe new to dominate global energy supply. It Prices of oil and gas declined 41% Sachs Commodity Index. This price Solar cooperation Russia
lows, OPEC warns that another price sees the share of oil go down from on average last year, reports the US drop is considerably higher than price and India
spike may loom down the road, as 31.5% to 25.2% in 2040, and that of Energy Information Administation reductions in other commodities, as The Solar Energy Corporation of India
investment may be inadequate to meet coal from 28.4% to 24.6%, whereas gas (EIA), based on the S&P Goldman shown by this graph: (SECI) and Russian Energy Agency
future demand. will grow from 22.1% to 27.9%. Nuclear (REA) have signed a memorandum of
understanding (MoU) to set up large scale
will provide 5.9% of primary energy
solar photovoltaic (PV) projects in India
In its annual World Oil Outlook, demand (up from 4.9%) in 2040, hydro
between 2016 to 2022. The two agencies
published in December, OPEC sees oil 2.5% (stable), biomass 9.5% (down have agreed to draw up a roadmap for
demand rise from 91.3 million barrels from 9.8%) and “other renewables” the development of solar projects and
per day (mbpd) in 2014 to 97.4 mbpd in 4.3% (up from 0.9%). According equipment of manufacturing facilities in
2020 and 109.8 mbpd in 2040, driven to Salem El-Badri poor people in India. REA will offer its ‘state-of-the-art’
by population and economic growth: developing countries “need access to advanced technologies and low cost
financing, while SECI will assist in securing
relevant approvals and clearances.
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country focus World Energy Focus #19 • january 2016 • page 7
Each country must find its own way by 50% in 2050 compared to 2012 in 2050 (in absolute terms) is very
France’s
forward, depending on its resources 5. To diversify electricity generation, ambitious, Moncomble admits.
and priorities.” including reducing the share of
pragmatic Frontrunner
nuclear energy to 50%, in 2025
6. To decrease waste in landfills by 50%
Electric cars
In renewable energy, France is
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events World Energy Focus #19 • january 2016 • page 8
across the globe. the Council’s national committee. It major cross cutting issues facing the build resilience and prepare for the new Independent and inclusive, the Council’s work
The event gathers is supported by the African Union energy industry in 2016. normal. Providing a unique platform covers all nations and the complete energy
international and Commission and the NEPAD Planning to challenge ideas and look to future- spectrum – from fossil fuels to renewable
African experts to and Coordinating Agency. Contact: Kimberly Grover proof the energy systems of the Asia- energy sources.
share their insights E-mail: [email protected] Pacific region, participants will seek to
and solutions to www.africaenergyindaba.com Website: http://bit.ly/1SwTJpj develop a shared understanding of the
growing resiliency risks and challenges
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