The Economic Case For Education in Vietnam Harry Anthony Patrinos Pham Vu Thang Nguyen Duc Thanh
The Economic Case For Education in Vietnam Harry Anthony Patrinos Pham Vu Thang Nguyen Duc Thanh
The Economic Case For Education in Vietnam Harry Anthony Patrinos Pham Vu Thang Nguyen Duc Thanh
in Vietnam
Harry Anthony Patrinos
Pham Vu Thang
Nguyen Duc Thanh
Abstract
Education is central to the development of human
capital. lower than the regional average. The
returns to secondary Vietnam has made significant
progress. This paper reviews education are low, but
not much lower than the regional
existing research on the returns to education and
makes the average. The returns to
tertiary education are high, have
case for investment in schooling. In Vietnam, the
returns increased considerably, and
are about 20 percent. Therefore,
to schooling are 10 percent overall. The returns to
primary investing in higher
education makes sense for the individual
and secondary education have declined over time
and are and her family.
This paper is a product of the Education Global
Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World
Bank to provide open
access to its research and make a contribution to
development policy discussions around the world.
Policy Research
Working Papers are also posted on the Web at
http://www.worldbank.org/research. The authors
may be contacted at
hpatrinos@worldbank.org.
Produced by the
Research Support Team
_x000C_ The Economic Case for Education in
Vietnam 1
Pham Vu Thang
VNU University of Economics
and Business
1
Thanks to Michael Crawford, Ousmane Dione,
Nguyen Hoang Hai, Amer Hasan, Keiko Inoue,
Dilip Parajuli, George Psacharopoulos, Chris
Sakellariou, Dung Kieu Vo and Michel Welmond
for helpful comments.
_x000C_Introduction
10
0
1992 1997 2002 2007
2012
Source: Annex 1
4
_x000C_The overall rate of return to schooling in
Vietnam at about 9 to 10 percent, is at the global
average.
It is higher than in most countries in the region,
demonstrating that further private investment in
education is a sound priority (Table 1). The returns
to primary schooling have decreased over
time, which is not surprising given the level of
achievement and universal access in Vietnam. The
returns to primary schooling are lower than the
regional average. The returns to secondary are
low, but not much lower than the regional average.
The returns to tertiary education are high,
significantly higher that the regional average, and
on par with China, the Philippines and Thailand.
In fact, the returns to tertiary education in Vietnam
are among the highest in the world.
15
10
0
Primary Secondary
Tertiary
1992 2010
Source: Annex 1
Financial Implications
7
_x000C_Conclusions
9
_x000C_References
10
_x000C_Montenegro, C. and H.A. Patrinos. 2014.
“Comparable Estimates of Returns to Schooling
around
the World. World Bank Policy Research
Working Paper Series 7020.
Moock, P.R., H.A. Patrinos and M. Venkataraman.
2003. “Education and Earnings in a Transition
Economy: The Case of Vietnam.” Economics
of Education Review 22: 503-510.
World Bank. 2017. Vietnam Public Expenditure
Review (Vol. 2): Fiscal Policies towards
Sustainability, Efficiency, and Equity.
Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group.
Nguyen, N.N., 2004. “Trends in the Education
Sector.” Economic Growth, Poverty, and
Household Welfare in Vietnam. P. Glewwe, N.
Agrawal and D. Dollar (eds.). Economic
Growth, Poverty, and Household Welfare in
Vietnam (Washington DC: World Bank),
pp.425-66.
Oostendrop, R.H and Q.H. Doan. 2013. “Have the
Returns to Education Really Increased in
Vietnam? Wage versus Employment Effect.”
Journal of Comparative Economics 41: 923-
938.
Oreopoulos, P. and K.G. Salvanes. 2011. “Priceless:
The Nonpecuniary Benefits of Schooling.”
Journal of Economic Perspectives 25(1): 159-
184.
Patrinos, H.A. 2016. “Estimating the Return to
Schooling using the Mincer Equation.” IZA World
of Labor, Institute for the Study of Labor
(IZA), pages 278-278.
Patrinos, H.A., C. Ridao-Cano and C. Sakellariou.
2009. “A Note on Schooling and Wage
Inequality in the Public and Private Sector.”
Empirical Economics 37(2): 383-392.
Pham, H.T. and B. Reilly. 2007. “The Gender Pay
Gap in Vietnam, 1993-2002: A Quintile
Regression Approach.” Journal of Asian
Economics 185(5): 775-806.
Phan, D. and I. Coxhead, 2013. “Long-run Costs of
Piecemeal Reform: Wage Inequality and
Returns to Education in Vietnam.” Journal of
Comparative Economics 41(4): 1106-22.
Psacharopoulos, G. 1995. “The Profitability of
Investment in Education: Concepts and
Methods.” Human capital development and
operations policy working papers No. HCO
63. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Psacharopoulos, G. and H.A. Patrinos. 2018.
“Returns to investment in education: a decennial
review of the global literature.” Education
Economics 26(5): 445-458.
Sakellariou, C. and Z. Fang. 2010. “After the
Reforms: Determinants of Wage Growth and
Changes in Wage Inequality in Vietnam 1998-
2008.” Working Paper #1020/06, Economic
Growth Centre, Division of Economics,
Nanyang Technological University.
Stroup, R.H. and M.B. Hargrove. 1969. “Earnings
and Education in Rural South Vietnam.”
Journal of Human Resources 4(2): 215-225.
Tien, N.D., 2014. An Analysis of Labour Market
Returns to Education in Vietnam: Evidence from
the National Labour Force Survey 2012.
International Training Centre of the International
Labour Organization Working Paper, 3.
Wigren, E. and L. Nilsson. 2015. “The Impact of
Human Capital on Earnings: A Study Regarding
urban Vietnam.” Linnaeus University, Sweden.
11
_x000C_ Annex 1:
Returns to Schooling in Vietnam over Time
Year Returns Primary Secondary Tertiary
Primary Secondary Tertiary Primary
Secondary Tertiary Source
Total Total Total Male
Male Male Female Female Female
1964 17.0
Stroup and Hargrove 1969
1992 4.8 10.8 3.8 3.0
Moock, Patrinos and Venkataraman 20032003
1993 4.3 5.0 4.4
Nguyen 2004
1997 4.7
Liu 2006
1998 4.8
Nguyen 2004
2002 5.1
Patrinos, Ridao-Cano and Sakellariou 2009
2004 8.4
Doan and Stevens 2011
2006 8.7 2.7 5.3 18.4 1.6 4.1
18.8 3.3 7.6 17.8 Montenegro and
Patrinos 2014
2008 10.0 5.6 20.5 4.4
20.4 8.1 21.4 Montenegro and
Patrinos 2014
2010 5.2 6.1 2.0 17.8 7.5 2.6
11.2 7.7 4.4 11.7 Montenegro and
Patrinos 2014; McGuinness et al 2015
2012 9.0
Wigren and Nilsson 2015
2014 5.7
Doan and Stevens 2011
12
The Economic Case for Education in Vietnam1
Harry Anthony Patrinos World Bank Pham Vu
Thang VNU University of Economics and Business
Nguyen Duc Thanh Viet Nam Institute for
Economic and Policy Research (VEPR), VNU
University of Economics and Business Keywords:
Returns to education; Vietnam; Schooling JEL
codes: J24 J31 C83 1 Thanks to Michael Crawford,
Ousmane Dione, Nguyen Hoang Hai, Amer Hasan,
Keiko Inoue, Dilip Parajuli, George
Psacharopoulos, Chris Sakellariou, Dung Kieu Vo
and Michel Welmond for helpful comments. 2
Introduction Education is positively related to
economic growth. In addition, education is
important in determining lifetime returns of
individuals. Economists use the Mincer (1974)
equation to explain (and estimate) employment
earnings as a function of schooling and labor
market experience. The equation provides
estimates of the average monetary private returns
of additional education. This information is
important for policy makers who must decide on
education spending, prioritization of schooling
levels, and education financing programs such as
student loans. Research suggests that each
additional year of education produces a private
(i.e., individual) rate of return to schooling of about
10 percent per year. Estimates range from a low of
1 percent to more than 20 percent in some countries
(Montenegro and Patrinos 2014; Patrinos 2016).
Globally, the returns to tertiary education are
highest, followed by primary and then secondary
schooling; this represents a significant reversal
from many studies’ prior results (Psacharopoulos
and Patrinos 2018). The returns are highest in Sub-
Saharan Africa and globally higher for women than
for men. Policy makers can learn much from these
estimates. For example, further expansion of
university education appears to be very worthwhile
for the individual, meaning that governments need
to find ways to make financing more readily
available, and that high rates of return are found
through investment in girls’ education. A dollar
invested in a one-year increase in the mean years of
schooling generates more than $5 in additional
gross earnings in low-income countries and $2.5 in
lower-middle income countries (Education
Commission 2016). This is the case even after
considering the costs incurred by governments and
individuals and the current variability in education
quality across countries. This is equivalent to a rate
of return of 10 percent and 7 percent. Vietnam has
made significant progress. In this review of the
research on the returns to education in Vietnam we
find that the overall private rate of return to
schooling in Vietnam is at the global average but
higher than in most countries in the region,
demonstrating that further investment in education
is a sound priority. Returns to primary and
secondary education have declined over time and
are lower than the regional average. The returns to
secondary are low, but not much lower than the
regional average. The returns to tertiary education
are high, and have increased considerably, and are
about 20 percent. Investing in higher education,
therefore, makes sense for the individual and her
family. Education is central to the long-term
development of human capital and to economic
growth. Vietnam can continue to expand upper
secondary and post-secondary education given the
high returns to tertiary education. Given the
relatively high private and social returns to higher
education, some level of cost-recovery is
warranted. Care should be taken to expand higher
education equitably and sustainably, and to
improving quality. However, most of the data
reviewed here goes to 2012. Going forward, more
recent data and analysis are needed. The Case of
Vietnam Major economic reforms in Vietnam since
1986 have included several measures to liberalize
the labor market. Salary reforms were introduced in
1993. In 1995, a labor law was passed, and a labor
code was published that covers a wide range of
labor issues including labor contracts, collective
bargaining, social insurance, working conditions
and training. Labor market adjustments occurred 3
during and after the East Asia economic and
financial crisis of 1997 to 1999. The period 2002 to
2010 saw several revisions to Vietnam’s Labor
Codes to implement international regulations and
to better protect the rights of both employees and
employers. Prior to 2006, the state had one general
minimum wage that applied throughout the
country. However, since 2007 there are FDI firm
and non-FDI firm minimum wage rates, which vary
per the region that the firm operates in. There are
four defined regions, which are classified per a
socio-economic standards index. Thus, there are
eight minimum wages, which cannot be less than
the state’s general minimum wage. The general
minimum wage is mostly applied to state sector
employees. Vietnam has made significant progress
in education in terms of access and quality. The
country has achieved universal preschool education
for five-year-old children and primary education
and is working towards achieving universal lower
secondary education. Vietnam has achieved high
levels of student learning. Per the recently
published Program for International Student
Assessment (PISA), Vietnam surpasses the OECD
country average and many developed economies
and places in the top 10 overall in science
achievement. The 2015 PISA, with its focus on
science, was no exception. Vietnam was clearly in
the top 10 worldwide in science. This bodes well
for preparing students for the world of work with
the 21st century skills they need to succeed.
Science and technology are fundamental to
people’s futures. Moving forward, the priority is to
focus on higher levels of schooling. However, the
current higher education financing mechanism falls
short. It fails to provide incentives for higher
education institutions to improve quality and
relevance to respond to labor market demand
(World Bank 2017). The Higher Education Law of
2012 provides the legal basis for substantial reform
in governance and financial mechanisms, but the
required decrees and other elements of the
normative framework need to be developed. There
has been rapid expansion of enrollments in both
public and private higher education institutions.
The higher education budget will not be able to
absorb the whole cost, which will require some
level of “cost-sharing” going forward. Higher
education financing needs to prioritize, promote
competition, ensure education equity (or support
disadvantaged students), encourage the
internationalization of universities, and generate
performance-orientation to incentivize higher
education institutions to improve quality and
relevance. Higher education financing needs to
move towards better prioritization of public
resources towards areas with high social returns.
Higher education needs urgent attention to meet the
demands for high-quality human resources.
Enrollment in higher education has doubled
roughly every five years over the last several
decades but the policies of education finance,
namely, tuition fee, public financing and private
sector contribution have not been reformed
efficiently, pushing higher education to the race of
low quality and low cost. Graduates lack the skills
required by employers. Research institutes and
universities provide too little research, and what is
produced is mostly not of sufficient quality and
relevance for the economy’s needs. The
government has been providing more autonomy to
some key institutions and universities, setting up an
accreditation system and raising the tuition fee
ceiling for the period of 5 years. Perhaps the first
study of the benefits of education in Vietnam
appeared almost 50 years ago (Stroup and
Hargrove 1969). In an analysis limited to rural
South Vietnam in 1964, another year 4 of schooling
increased earnings by 17 percent. In 1992, on
average, the estimates of rates of return to
schooling were relatively low, at about 5 percent.
Private rates of return to primary and university
education averaged 13 and 11 percent, but only 4 to
5 percent at the secondary and vocational levels.
Returns to higher education were higher for
females (12 percent) than for males (10 percent)
(Moock, Patrinos and Venkataraman 20032003). In
1993, the returns to schooling were 4.3 percent
(Nguyen 2004). In 1997 they were 4.7 percent, and
slightly higher for women (Liu 2006). In 1998 they
were 4.8 percent (Nguyen 2004). Gallup (2002)
found that returns to education in Vietnam
increased from 1993 to 1998. In 1997, the returns
to schooling were 2.6 percent, but when using IV,
as high as 7.0 percent (Arcand, d'Hombres and
Gyselinck 2005). By 2002, they had reached 5.1
(Patrinos, Ridao-Cano and Sakellariou 2009). More
recent studies have found greater returns to higher
levels of education. In relation to over time
estimates, Liu (2006), Pham and Reilly (2007) and
Oostendrop and Doan (2013) found the returns to
increase over the period 1998 to 2006 (Figure 1).
However, Phan and Coxhead (2013) reported that
returns to education in Vietnam declined between
the periods 1993 to 2002 and 2002 to 2008. The
mixed findings that have been derived to date are
most likely due to the employment of different
estimation techniques across the various studies
(e.g., Ordinary Least Squares versus Instrumental
Variables), along with differences in the defined
sample and control variables included in the
estimated models (Phu Viet Le 2014; Tien 2014;
Sakellariou and Fang 2010; Imbert 2010). Wigren
and Nilsson (2015) estimate the returns to
schooling in 2012 at 9 percent. The male and
female education returns displayed a linear pattern
in both 2002 and 2010, with earnings rising with
increased levels of education. Relative to males
with no qualifications, the returns to those with a
vocational training qualification or below fell
between 2002 and 2010, while the economic
returns to a college education and above increased.
Similar results were observed for females
(McGuinness, Kelly, Thu and Thu 2015). Diep and
Coxhead 2016 also find rising returns but not as
high as in other studies. Returns soared in the
1990s but fell after the crisis (Doan, Tuyen and
Quan 2018). Source: Annex 1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1992
1997 2002 2007 2012 Figure 1: Returns to
Schooling in Vietnam since the early 1990s 5 The
overall rate of return to schooling in Vietnam at
about 9 to 10 percent, is at the global average. It is
higher than in most countries in the region,
demonstrating that further private investment in
education is a sound priority (Table 1). The returns
to primary schooling have decreased over time,
which is not surprising given the level of
achievement and universal access in Vietnam. The
returns to primary schooling are lower than the
regional average. The returns to secondary are low,
but not much lower than the regional average. The
returns to tertiary education are high, significantly
higher that the regional average, and on par with
China, the Philippines and Thailand. In fact, the
returns to tertiary education in Vietnam are among
the highest in the world. Table 1: Returns to
Schooling (selected countries) Economy Year
Returns Primary Secondary Tertiary Australia 2010
13 14 20 4 Brazil 2012 11 8 6 17 Cambodia 2012 5
13 3 12 China 2002 17 9 21 Indonesia 2010 10 13
10 12 Japan 2007 14 9 Korea, Rep. 2010 13 13 Lao
PDR 2008 5 11 5 6 Mongolia 2011 9 14 4 10
Philippines 2014 8 10 6 22 Russian Federation
2009 3 7 Singapore 1998 13 7 10 11 Thailand 2011
9 3 5 17 United States 2010 13 5 15 Vietnam 2010-
2014 9-10 6.0 2-5 18-21 Source: Montenegro and
Patrinos 2014 Since the early 1990s, the returns to
higher education have increased significantly
(Figure 2). In 1992, the returns to primary were
10.8 percent, secondary was 3.8 percent and
tertiary 3.0 percent (Moock, Patrinos and
Venkataraman 20032003). By 2008, the returns to
tertiary had soared to 17 to 20 percent (Doan 2013;
Montenegro and Patrinos 2014). In 2010, the
returns to primary were 6.1, secondary 2.0, and
tertiary was 17.8 percent (McGuinness, Kelly, Thu
and Thu 2015). Thereafter, there seems to be a
decline in the relatively high returns to university
(Doan, Tuyen and Quan 2018), but it remains much
higher than other levels. Similar findings are
presented in Demombynes and Testaverde (2018).
6 Source: Annex 1 Private and Social Returns to
Higher Education The private returns to higher
education are now higher than the returns to
primary schooling (Montenegro and Patrinos 2014;
see also Colclough, Kingdon and Patrinos 2010).
The returns to primary schooling are just above 10
percent and returns to secondary schooling are 7
percent. The private rate of return to university is
15 percent. It is highest in Sub-Saharan Africa at
21 percent and ranges between 10 (Europe and
Central Asia) and 17 percent (South Asia) for the
rest. High returns to higher education signal that
university is a good investment – especially for the
student and her family. If you add to that the social
benefits and costs of higher education, then one can
argue that higher education has social returns as
well. Financing higher education, however,
requires a sustainable financial model, which in
most countries entails smart costrecovery (via, for
example, income contingent student finance) and
targeted support – which means guidance,
information, supports, not just money – for those
particularly disadvantaged. How do we know that
higher education might be a justified expenditure
on the part of students (and their families) and
society? Typically, we rely on cost-benefit analysis
that gives us an estimate of the rate of return to
investment in higher education. The rate of return
to schooling equals the value of lifetime earnings
of the graduate to the net present value of the costs
of education. An economically justified investment
has a positive rate of return which is higher than
the alternative. For the prospective student,
assessing costs and benefits means investing until
the rate of return exceeds the private discount rate
(the cost of borrowing and an allowance for risk).
The costs are the student’s foregone earnings while
studying, plus any fees or incidental expenses
incurred while attending classes. The private
benefits amount to how much extra money a
graduate earns compared with someone with less
education. In the case of higher education, the
comparison is made with secondary school leavers.
The social rate of return is calculated by adding
society’s spending on higher education on the cost
side – for example, money spent on renting
buildings and professorial salaries – and the
benefits 0 5 10 15 20 Primary Secondary Tertiary
Figure 2: Rising Returns to Higher Education in
Vietnam since 1992 1992 2010 7 to society beyond
wages. Ideally, the social benefits should include
non-monetary benefits of education, such as
improved health and nutrition practices and inter-
generational well-being. Given the scant empirical
evidence on the social benefits (Oreopoulos and
Salvanes 2011; see also McMahon 2004), estimates
of the social rate of return are typically based on
observable monetary costs and labor market
earnings (Jimenez and Patrinos 2008). The returns
to higher education have changed over time. The
returns to an additional year of schooling tend to
decline as the level of schooling rises. But the
returns have declined modestly in past decades
despite rising average years of schooling. In 2010,
the world population aged 15 and above is
estimated to have had an average of 8 years of
schooling, having increased steadily from just over
5 years in 1980 (Barro and Lee 2013). While the
enrollment rate in higher education grew
significantly over time, the returns to higher
education remain high. This suggests that global
demand for skills has kept the returns to schooling
high. It is thus safe to say that education is a good
investment globally. Vietnam is following the
general case of increasing returns to tertiary
education. Analysis of the social returns to
schooling in Vietnam is limited. Using published
data on costs and wage differentials by level in
Nguyen (2004), we estimate the social rate of
return using the “short cut” method
(Psacharopoulos 1995). The social rate of return to
schooling was very low in Vietnam in 1993, and
just about 0 percent at the tertiary level. By 1998,
social returns had risen considerably, and the
highest returns were for tertiary education, at 12
percent, compared to primary and secondary, both
at 5 percent. Financial Implications For the
individual and her family, the good news is that the
returns to higher education remain high. Higher
education is a likely good investment for people to
consider. But decisions on investing should be
based on full information about the costs and
benefits for an individual student, as well as full
information on the course of study. Enrolling in
higher education will not lead to higher earnings if
the student is in the wrong school or faculty or
discipline based on their own interests and
capabilities. For society, better educated citizens
and workers are more productive and impart social
benefits. However, before committing to increases
in funding, governments would be wise to plant
incentives for the efficient and equitable use of
funds. This might mean selective fees near the
social cost of higher education. Expanding
opportunities could also mean student finance
options, but given the experience with traditional
student loans, options to tap future earnings to
finance current education (e.g., income contingent
loans and human capital contracts) might be
considered. Given the high private returns to
tertiary education, it is right to expect a greater
private contribution. In low-income countries,
returns on investment reach 22.8 percent per
additional year (Education Commission 2016). 8
Conclusions Education is central to the long-term
development of human capital and to economic
growth. Schooling empowers people and
strengthens nations. It affirms human dignity and
provides individuals with capabilities to compete in
the global economy. Good-quality education is
among the most powerful instruments known to
reduce poverty and inequality and to foster
dynamic and competitive economies over the long
term. In today’s global economy, a high-quality
education is critically important for creating,
applying and disseminating knowledge. Globally,
the social rate of return to education is 10 percent
in low-income and 7 percent in middleincome
economies. These returns to education are well
above average returns to investment in stocks (4.6
percent), bank deposits (4.6 percent), housing (2.8
percent), and long-term bonds (2.7 percent).
Evidence from advanced economies also shows
that improving quality and learning outcomes, in
addition to years of schooling, delivers even greater
benefits than improving enrollment alone. The
private rate of return to schooling in Vietnam is at
the global average. It is higher than in most
countries in the region, demonstrating that further
investment in education is a sound priority. The
returns to primary schooling have decreased over
time, which is not surprising given the level of
achievement and universal access in Vietnam. The
returns to primary schooling are lower than the
regional average. The returns to secondary are low,
but not much lower than the regional average. The
returns to tertiary education are high, significantly
higher that the regional average, and on par with
China, the Philippines and Thailand. In fact, the
returns to tertiary education in Vietnam are among
the highest in the world. This reflects economic
policy outcomes and the longstanding tradition of
valuing education in Vietnam. Vietnam can
continue to expand upper secondary and post-
secondary education given the high returns to
tertiary education. Given the relatively high private
and social returns to higher education, some level
of cost-recovery is warranted. Care should be taken
to expand higher education equitably and
sustainably, and to improving quality. Given the
rising returns despite rapid increases in schooling
levels suggests the demand for skills is rising.
Investment should rapidly expand quality
secondary and higher education. The high quality
of basic education and the universal coverage at
this level suggests more resources should go into
post basic education. This includes higher
education but also universal coverage of upper
secondary schooling to make it possible for more
students to enter university. Given the high returns
to education in Vietnam and globally, which
surpass the returns to other viable investments, then
expanding education spending – by family and
society – makes economic sense. Most of the data
reviewed here go to 2012. More recent data and
analysis are needed. The returns to schooling
should be analyzed with controls for endogeneity.
One idea would be to use the introduction of
compulsory schooling in 1991 as an instrument
(Dang 2017). Since most of the research thus far in
Vietnam has produced estimates of private returns
to schooling, then it would make sense to estimate
social returns. This could be done in combination
with work on appropriate levels of cost-recovery
and financing mechanisms. Future research should
also look at the impact of raising the level of cost-
recovery at the university level. More 9 research is
also needed on the returns to quality in Vietnam, at
the secondary and tertiary levels. Future analysis
should focus on more recent data and consider
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