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Binomial Distribution

The document discusses random variables, probability distributions, binomial distributions, and Poisson approximations. It provides examples of calculating probabilities for various scenarios involving coin tosses, competitions, exam grades, and defective products. For instance, it calculates the probability of 4 out of 6 patients recovering from a disease using a binomial distribution with p=0.25 and n=6. It also shows calculating the probability of getting at least 6 defective pens out of 100,000 using a Poisson approximation since n is very large.

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Gopalsamy Selvadurai
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372 views5 pages

Binomial Distribution

The document discusses random variables, probability distributions, binomial distributions, and Poisson approximations. It provides examples of calculating probabilities for various scenarios involving coin tosses, competitions, exam grades, and defective products. For instance, it calculates the probability of 4 out of 6 patients recovering from a disease using a binomial distribution with p=0.25 and n=6. It also shows calculating the probability of getting at least 6 defective pens out of 100,000 using a Poisson approximation since n is very large.

Uploaded by

Gopalsamy Selvadurai
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Random Variable ( X is just like a function, S means sample space)

Sample space for tossing two coins s= (HH,HT,TH,TT)

No X: is defined as No of Heads – Number of Tails

X(HH) = 2 – 0 = 2

Probability Distribution

Mean/Expectation E(x)

Variance / Standard Deviation

Finite

Independent ( Not depending on anything/ replacing)

DUAL (Success. Failure, yes or not,)

Hospital records show that of patients suffering from a certain disease 75% die of it. What is the
probability that of 6 randomly selected patients, 4 will recover?

This is a binomial distribution because there are only 2 outcomes (the patient dies, or does not).

Let X = number who recover.

Here, n=6 and x=4. Let p=0.25 (success, that is, they live), q=0.75 (failure, i.e. they die).

The probability that 4 will recover:

Problem 1:

The probability of winning a match for team AA is 0.60.6. Find the probability of winning 33 matches out of 55.

Solution:

Probability of winning, pp = 0.60.6


Probability of losing, qq = 0.40.4

Probability of winning 33 matches out of 5, P(x=3)5, P(x=3) = 53C(0.6)3(0.4)235C(0.6)3(0.4)2

P(x=3)P(x=3) = 5!3!2!5!3!2! × 0.216× 0.16=0.3456× 0.216× 0.16=0.3456

Hence, the probability is 0.34560.3456.

Problem 2:

If a committee has 77 members, find the probability of having more female members than male members given that
the probability of having a male or a female member is equal.

Solution:

The probability of having a female member = 0.50.5

The probability of having a male member = 0.50.5

To have more female members, the number of females should be greater than or equal to 44.

P(X ≥ 4)P(X ≥ 4) = P(4)+P(5)+P(6)+P(7)P(4)+P(5)+P(6)+P(7)

= C74(0.5)4(0.5)3+C75(0.5)5(0.5)2+C76(0.5)6(0.5)1+C77(0.5)7(0.5)0C47(0.5)4(0.5)3+C57(0.5)5(0.5)2+
C67(0.5)6(0.5)1+C77(0.5)7(0.5)0

= (0.5)7×(C74+C75+C76+C77)=0.0078125×64=0.5(0.5)7×(C47+C57+C67+C77)=0.0078125×64=0.
5

The probability is 0.50.5

Problem 3:

Aren is taking part in four competitions. If the probability of him winning any competition is 0.30.3, find the probability
of him winning at least one competition.

Solution:

Probability of winning at least one competition will be the complement of the probability of winning not a single
competition.

P(X=0)P(X=0) = 40C(0.3)0(0.7)404C(0.3)0(0.7)4
= 1×1×0.2401=0.24011×1×0.2401=0.2401

Chances of winning at least one competition = 1−P(X=0)=1−0.2401=0.7599

Problem 4:

If a coin is tossed thrice, find the probability of a getting head at least two times.

Solution:

The probability of getting head at least two times is the sum of probabilities of getting head two times and three times.

P(X ≥ 2)P(X ≥ 2) = P(X=2)+P(X=3)P(X=2)+P(X=3)

= 32C(0.5)2(0.5)1+33C(0.5)3(0.5)023C(0.5)2(0.5)1+33C(0.5)3(0.5)0

= 3×0.125+1×0.125=0.53×0.125+1×0.125=0.5

Hence, the needed probability is 0.50.5

Problem 5:

If only 55 percent kids can secure A grade in a paper, find the probability of at most 22 out of 1010 kids getting A
grade in that paper.

Solution:

Probability of securing grade A=0.05A=0.05

Probability of at most 22 kids getting grade A=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)A=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)

The required probability


= C100(0.05)0(0.95)10+C101(0.05)1(0.95)9+C102(0.05)2(0.95)8C010(0.05)0(0.95)10+C110(0.05)1(0.95)
9+C210(0.05)2(0.95)8

= 0.59873693924+0.31512470486+0.07463479852=0.988496442620.59873693924+0.31512470486
+0.07463479852=0.98849644262

Hence, the probability needed is 0.98849644262

P(X) =Cxn

x
q

n−x

\displaystyle={{C}_{{4}}^{{6}}}{\left({0.25}\right)}^{4}{\left({0.75}\right)}^{2}=C

(0.25)

(0.75)

\displaystyle={15}\times{2.1973}\times{10}^{ -{{3}}}=15×2.1973×10

−3

\displaystyle={0.0329595}=0.0329595

Poisson Approximation
The Poisson distribution is an important probability distribution which is the
resultant of the Poisson experiment. The Poisson distribution was discovered
by Simeon Denis Poisson who was a French mathematician and was
published in his book in 1837. It is said to be a discrete kind of probability
distribution which represents the probability of certain number of events
that occur in a fixed interval and these events have an average rate
of occurring.
Poisson experiment has following features:
1) The result of a Poisson experiment must be notated in the form
of success or failure.

2) In a specified interval or trials, the average number of successes must be


known.

3) For a very small region, the probability of occurring a success should be


zero.

4) The probability of obtaining a success should be proportional to the size of


given region.In this article, we shall go ahead and learn about Poisson
approximation in detail.

For Example: suppose 5 out of 50,000 pens are defective. If Y represent the count of defective pens in a batch of
1,00,000, then the probability of getting at least 6 of them defective can only be deduced not by using Binomial
distribution, but by the Poisson approximation of the Binomial in this case. Here n = 1,00,000, s = 0.0001, n . s = 10.
So for \mu = n . s = 10

Chances of getting at least 6 defective

= 1 - chances of getting less than 6 defective

= 1 - [ P ( no defective) + P (one defective) + …. + P (five defective)]

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