JM Financial - Initiating Coverage
JM Financial - Initiating Coverage
JM Financial - Initiating Coverage
We value the Company at ~`150/- share implying 25% upside from CMP with an
accumulate rating given the consistent compounding nature of the lending
businesses. Credit quality in the business is exceptionally strong and any de-gradation
of the same would be a key risk to monitor.
Financial summary:
Particulars `Cr Net Sales Growth (%) EBITDA NIM (%) PAT EPS ROE ROA
FY13 797 18.3% 632 4.3% 183 2.44 8.9 6.8
FY14 829 4.0% 599 6.2% 210 2.78 9.5 7.4
FY15 1,196 44.3% 945 6.7% 331 4.32 13.0 9.4
FY16 1,495 25.0% 1,213 8.0% 400 5.08 13.8 6.5
FY17 2,152 44.0% 1,775 7.3% 470 5.93 14.1 5.5
Regd. Office: 298, Perin Nariman Street, 4th Floor, City Ice Building, Fort, Mumbai - 400 001.
1
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report
JM Financial
Segmental Overview
Regd. Office: 298, Perin Nariman Street, 4th Floor, City Ice Building, Fort, Mumbai - 400 001.
2
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report
JM Financial
Investment Banking: - The Company has a strong presence in the investment banking vertical
o Enjoys strong relationships across the Indian business community for over 4 decades
o Key Offerings:-
o Fund Raising, Equity Capital Markets & Debt Capital Markets (IPO’s & Debt Issuances)
o M&A/ Corporate Restructuring Activity (Advisory, Consultative Business)
o Private Equity Syndication
o Achievements In FY17:-
o Ranked #1 in the M&A and Capital Market League tables as per Merger Market and Prime Database for FY17
o Long list of deal tombstones across verticals and Industries over FY17
Wealth Management & Securities:-
o Team of 71 Wealth Advisors with a presence across 7 cities
o Aim for client cross-selling coverage with investment banking/ corporate finance
o Institutional distribution strength (over 200 funds)
o Broking presence across 114 cities (211 franchisees)
Valuation:-
Despite the above earnings being somewhat cyclical the vertical still deserves a ~12.0x P/E given its strong track record and
consistent wealth management AUM
o Would be valued at ~1150 Cr at ~12.0x FY17 P/E Implying `14.5/- Per Equity Share in the SOTP
Regd. Office: 298, Perin Nariman Street, 4th Floor, City Ice Building, Fort, Mumbai - 400 001.
3
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report
JM Financial
2) Asset Management (54% Ownership) & Alternative Asset Management (100% Ownership)
Has an equity AUM of `6,644 Crore, a Debt AUM of `7,024 Crore and a Private Equity AUM of `655 Crore.
Mutual Funds
o Quarterly Average AUM (QAAUM) – `13,668 cr.
o Rank (QAAUM) – 18 among 41 Mutual Funds, Market Share – 0.75%.
o 17 Schemes categorized as Long Term Debt, Short Term Debt, Balance, Equity Arbitrage and Equity.
o Investor reach – 1,35,025 base, 17 branches & 81 service centres.
Valuation:-
o We value the above at ~4% of AUM or ~12.0x FY17 P/E which is ~`300 Cr, or `~4/- per equity share in the SOTP
Private Equity
o AUM 475 Cr, 13 Investments with 7 Full Exits
o Fund fully drawn down and invested, Has distributed `722 Cr till date
o PE Fund 2, has received SEBI registration and is in the process of raising capital
Real Estate
o AUM 180 Cr. 16 Investments
o 6 full exits, 3 part exits
o Fully drawn-down and invested, distributed `264 Cr.
Valuation:-
o The Alternative Asset Management businesses are small and thus do not warrant a valuation despite a growth Optionality
o However the sponsor commitments in the funds are valuable and along with the other Non-Core investments would
generate ~`800 Cr. (`10/- Share in the SOTP) conservatively at current realizable value
o The same would warrant a further P/B re-rating once deployed in the lending businesses, however we do not value this
optionality as of today
Regd. Office: 298, Perin Nariman Street, 4th Floor, City Ice Building, Fort, Mumbai - 400 001.
4
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report
JM Financial
Track Record:-
o The business has till date recovered ~3000 Crore from acquired assets as of Dec 31st 2016
o The business has resolved 25 fully exited accounts and generated an average IRR of ~37% from the same
Modus Operandi:-
Identifies financial creditors and constitutes a creditors committee – 75% majority vote
Creditors committee has to decide to proceed with a revival plan or liquidation within a period of 180 days which may be
extended for a period not exceeding 90 days
o Application on Default
o Appointment of an Insolvency Professional
o Moratorium period (180/270 days)
o Formation of Credit Committee
o Goes into Resolution Plan / Liquidation
The above would speed up resolution of bankruptcies and greatly boost earnings for JM financial ARC.
The business is very conservative, all assets have a liquidation value of hard assets
Before purchase of any asset the team calculates for a ~25% IRR assuming the case is resolved at the end of 7 years and the
underlying hard assets are sold at a ~25% discount to perceived fair value
However with the bankruptcy code there lies high visibility of the entire book getting resolved within the next 3 years
The ARC business tends to be very lumpy as can be seen from the 5 year Financials below
Year FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Revenues 40 89 120 214 319 224
PBT 22 61 75 60 158 84
Net Worth 242 282 330 417 525 580
Capital Employed 242 451 675 1529 1196 1571
Core Leverage 0x 0.6x 0.1x 2.7x 1.3x 2.7x
AUM 758 1082 3646 8398 9821 11,874
Actual Leverage 3.1x 3.8x 11.0x 20.1x 18.7x 20.5x
ROA (Adjusted) 2% 3.7% 1.3% 0.5% 1.1% 0.4%
ROE 6.1% 14% 14.3% 10% 21% 9.9 %
We expect a sharp up-tick in ARC profitability over the next 3 years driven by speedy resolutions which should drive return ratios
considerably higher
Regd. Office: 298, Perin Nariman Street, 4th Floor, City Ice Building, Fort, Mumbai - 400 001.
5
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report
JM Financial
Key Accounts which account for ~50% of dues outstanding, progress and current status
Potential Asset Upside (PBT) From
Account Progress till date
Value Recoverable Resolution Estimate
Purchased Debt of two Unitech Subsidiaries with large underlying security Will get fully resolved Will make ~82 Cr
HDFC had to sell the loan due to irregular debt servicing, 60% of area under in 3-3.5 years (100% from Fee revenues,
Unitech development at hand-over stage. Projects need another 250 Crores of immediate of debt outstanding 145 Cr from upside
funding for completion of projects which JM would infuse from sale of surplus to respective share over next 3
assets. JM expects a 62.5% surplus cash flow over the next 3.5 years subsidiaries years
Valuation:-
o Expected cash-flows from the ARC business over the next 3 years are ~`4000+ Cr (NPV~ `R 2700 Cr)
o After accounting for minority interest we value JM Financials stake in the ARC business at ~`1640 Cr (50% of NPV+ Current
Book Value at 1.0x) Valued at ~`24.5/- per share in the SOTP
o We do-not assign any P/B multiple to the ARC business given the uncertainty involved in future capital allocation as
post-bankruptcy code, the complication involved in asset reconstruction drops massively thereby enabling lenders
with lesser financial sophistication to handle bad loan issues in-house
o We believe excess cash-flows from the ARC business would be re-routed to the Lending businesses thereby unlocking further
valuation upside, we however do not value the same Optionality as of today
Regd. Office: 298, Perin Nariman Street, 4th Floor, City Ice Building, Fort, Mumbai - 400 001.
6
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report
JM Financial
Valuation:-
We value the above lending businesses at ~4.0x FY17 Price/Book, given fast growth rates, superior return ratios and credit quality.
At the above valuations JM Financials stake in the Credit Solutions Division would be valued at ~`2,830 Cr (`36/- per share). The JM
Financial Products Division would be valued at ~`5372 Cr. (`68/- per share)
Regd. Office: 298, Perin Nariman Street, 4th Floor, City Ice Building, Fort, Mumbai - 400 001.
7
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report
JM Financial
Valuation of Optionality:-
Ability to re-invest non-core investment proceeds, ARC surplus into Lending businesses over the next 2 years would cause the
same to be valued at a ~3.0x price/book multiple, increasing value by ~`40/share
Housing Finance currently having a book value of ~`200 Cr is not valued in the above, any scale up in the same would be
incremental
FID division (SME lending/Other structured lending) has a loan book of ~300 Cr (100% equity funded) is also not valued in
the above any scale up in the same would be incremental
o Overall the company appears to be valued fairly at ~2.8x FY17 P/B and ~20.0x FY17 P/E, however given the robust
growth of the lending businesses and a sharp up-tick expected in ARC earnings we believe the business has the potential
for a re-rating and is worth ~`150/- per share implying a 25% upside from CMP.
Regd. Office: 298, Perin Nariman Street, 4th Floor, City Ice Building, Fort, Mumbai - 400 001.
8
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report
JM Financial
Key Ratios
Regd. Office: 298, Perin Nariman Street, 4th Floor, City Ice Building, Fort, Mumbai - 400 001.
9
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report
JM Financial
Balance Sheet
(`Cr) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Equity capital 75 76 78 79 79
Reserves 1,975 2,111 2,465 2,831 3,253
Net worth 2,051 2,197 2,543 2,909 3,333
Current assets
Inventories 598 534 359 257 10
Debtors 181 195 227 355 1,179
Cash 1,419 974 833 1,265 869
Loans and Advances 2,422 1,904 2,909 3,038 4,987
Other Current assets 594 99 177 387 2,083
Total assets 6,928 5,930 8,505 11,061 16,559
Source: Company, DSPL
Regd. Office: 298, Perin Nariman Street, 4th Floor, City Ice Building, Fort, Mumbai - 400 001.
10
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report
JM Financial
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I (Aditya Iyer), Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this
research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,
or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
Regd. Office: 298, Perin Nariman Street, 4th Floor, City Ice Building, Fort, Mumbai - 400 001.
11