Peak Oil: Recent Dialogue On A Piquing Issue
Peak Oil: Recent Dialogue On A Piquing Issue
Peak Oil: Recent Dialogue On A Piquing Issue
Recent Dialogue
on a Piquing
Issue
David Caron
ABSTRACT:
• Related definitions
• Conclusion
ii
The issue of the peak oil theory has begun to grow more and more
rapidly in the political and economic realm over the past decade, gaining
relevance within the rhetoric of not only government agencies, but of oil
industry heads as well. This growing concern about the future of liquid fuels
is, indeed, a critical one, one which requires the utmost attention of both
the current dialogue taking place within the U.S., a nation which consumes
almost one quarter of the world’s oil,1 and principally, moreover, to address
those proponents of the peak oil theory in respect to their arguments and
data.
phrase peak oil means; the ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil) at
their last world conference defined peak oil as, “the uncontroversial
resource, will reach a high water mark, then probably remain in a plateau for
defining peak oil to some extent, the remainder of the definition lies in
dispelling what peak oil is not. The introductory text presented by the ASPO
1
House of Representatives, Committee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee on Energy
and Air Quality, "Understanding the Peak Oil Theory." 07 Dec 2005 11.
<http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?
dbname=109_house_hearings&docid=f:25627.pdf>.
2
Association for the Study of Peak Oil, "What is Peak Oil?." Introduction to Peak Oil 17 Oct
2007 1.
…does not state that the world is running out of oil… that
conventional oil production will peak and decline when exactly
half the assumed global endowment has been used up… [or] that
the world oil production has reached its high water mark now,
although some analysts hold that opinion”3
Indeed it would be false to declare that the world is running out of oil since,
conventional oil remaining, the world having already used up 1.11 trillion
barrels.4 Furthermore, the notion of a half-point peak comes from the idea of
predicted that the peak of oil in the U.S would occur sometime in the 1970’s.
telling when a world peak would occur on that basis only weighs in on a
whether or not the peak has already occurred is present in the prior
statement, we simply do not know, based on the data available to us, how
3
Ibid
4
Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management, by Robert
Hirsch, Roger Bezdek and Robert Wendling. Report for the DOE, February, 2005.
5
“What is Peak Oil?” 17 Oct 2007 1.
The concept of reserves is generally not well understood.
“Reserves” is an estimate of the amount of oil in a reservoir that
can be extracted at an assumed cost… Reserves estimation is a
matter of gauging how much extractable oil resides in complex
rock formations that exist typically one to three miles below the
surface of the ground, using inherently limited information.
Reserves estimation is a bit like a blindfolded person trying to
judge what the whole elephant looks like from touching it in just
a few places. It is not like counting cars in a parking lot, where all
the cars are in full view.6
His closing remark is intentionally underlined within the report and it very
6
Hirsch, Robert L.. "Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigations, & Risk
Management." Feb 2005. SAIC. 9 Dec 2007
<http://www.hilltoplancers.org/stories/hirsch0502.pdf>.
7
Ibid
peak oil: that there must be an innumerable amount of estimated liquid fuels
available to us. Hirsch quickly counters this thought by defining peak oil in
If large quantities of new oil are not discovered and brought into
production somewhere in the world, then world oil production will
no longer satisfy demand. That point is called the peaking of
world conventional oil production.
When world oil production peaks, there will still be large reserves
remaining. Peaking means that the rate of world oil production
cannot increase; it also means that production will thereafter
decrease with time.8
This description of peak oil seems more relevant than the ASPO version in
terms of speaking to the consumer of liquid fuels and their finite quality. It is
expanding the world’s oil reserves and what furthers the issue is the fact
issues create serious problems in the area of oil forecasting. Dave Cohen,
author and columnist for the ASPO website, in the article “On the Likelihood
8
Ibid
Michelle Silbernagel, explains why humankind's age-old struggle
to predict the future is doomed to failure.
This type of mathematical prophecy is, in part, what lends such great
9
Cohen, Dave. "On the Likelihood of Peak Oil." Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas -
USA. 30 May 2007. ASPO. 9 Dec 2007 <http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?
Itemid=91&id=143&option=com_content&task=view>.
Government Accountability Office (GAO) states that “oil production will peak
The article goes on to state that though some reserves are subject to a sort
the U.S., often times these types of laws aren’t applicable. Unfortunately this
is the case with companies owed by OPEC and part of what makes this
prospect even direr is the fact that OPEC is in possession of most of the
world’s oil reserves. This poses a large problem in relation to world reserve
estimates since it has been noted that, “IEA reports that reserves estimates
in Kuwait were unchanged from 1991 to 2002, even though the country
produced more than 8 billion barrels of oil over that period and did not make
possible that OPEC nations could simply lie in the name of money interest.
10
United States Government Accountability Office, "Crude Oil Uncertainty about Future Oil
Supply Makes It Important to Develop A Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil
Production." Feb 2007. GAO. 9 Dec 2007 <http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf>.
Estimates of OPEC and non-OPEC reserves are shown in the following
diagram: 11
sources of oil as well as the location of certain potential sources. The GAO
11
Ibid
report cites enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods and techniques as
noted that
The same is true of mining oil in less accessible areas or in deepwater and
amounts of oil that could push off the impending peak, their cost may
discourage further expansion into such areas, yet at the same time it must
reference to such sources as the oil sands, heavy and extra-heavy oils and
oil shale as well. But even with all these sources contributing to the stalling
of peak oil the idea of exponential growth must come into play.
12
Ibid
13
Ibid
world’s remaining energy sources, referencing the amount of coal the U.S.
there will be people who tell you don't worry about our future; we
have 250 years of coal at current use rates. That is true. But be
very careful when people say at current use rates because if we
increase our use of coal only 2 percent… that 250 years shrinks
to 85 years. You have to understand that at 2 percent increase, it
doubles, that it is compounded, exponentially compounded, it
doubles in 35 years.
But for most of our uses, we can't use coal. You can use
electricity with it, but you can't run your car with it. So if we are
now going to gasify or liquefy the coal, which, by the way, is very
easy to do… it takes energy to do that. And if the energy to do
that comes from coal, now you have reduced the supply of coal
to about 50 years.
In these terms it is much easier to understand those who forecast the world’s
oil peaking at the present time or in the very near future. However, even this
accounting for the exploration and production of the world’s oil included
14
Bartlett , Roscoe. "Congressman Roscoe Bartlett Congressional Record GAO REPORT ON
PEAK OIL House of Representatives." GAO Special Order 032907. 27 Mar 2007. 9 Dec 2007
<http://bartlett.house.gov/uploadedfiles/GAOspecialorder032907.pdf>.
political risk and investment risk. Though these aspects may seem abstract
measure of such factors the GAO footnotes Global Insight, a consulting firm
which offers a Global Risk Service and from which they received their data
15
15
"Crude Oil Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop A Strategy
for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production." Feb 2007.
Further speculation went into determining the investment risk of certain
nations,
16
16
Ibid
These, among many other variables, are factors which need consideration in
view of determining the overall amount of oil available in the world. But it
seems that these factors are constantly changing, making any estimate null
and void.
recent forecasts ranging from the present to an overall denial that peak oil
exists as a factor:
what is more terrifying, to a degree, is the fact that those whose forecasts
stretch into a longer term only go so far as to predict within the next 20 or
the world is going to stop growing within that span of time. In all actuality,
those who predict the greatest time gaps are those who fall under the weight
aware that it takes roughly 35 years for the world’s population to double, so
the “technological fix” premise, but aren’t these concepts just as theoretical,
At the end of the 82 page report put together by the GAO on peak oil
Secretary of Energy to “take the lead” in doing simply 2 things, these being:
17
DOE/NETL, "Peaking of World Oil Production: Recent Forecasts." 05 Feb 2007. DOE/NETL.
10 Dec 2007 <http://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analyses/pubs/Peaking%20of%20World
%20Oil%20Production%20-%20Recent%20Forecasts%20-%20NETL%20Re.pdf>.
• Monitor global supply and demand of oil with the intent of
reducing uncertainty surrounding estimates of the timing of peak
oil production. This effort should include improving the
information available to estimate the amount of oil, conventional
and nonconventional, remaining in the world as well as the
future production and consumption of this oil, while extending
the time horizon of the government’s projections and analysis.
These suggestions don’t seem to truly take into account the gravity of the
Hirsch in his report before the House Committee on Energy and Air Quality in
December of 2005. Hirsch grants that, yes, the oil peak is unknowable based
on the large variation of opinions by expert studies, but how soon we act will
Given these results it seems that the advice given by the GAO should have
been much more urgent, but apparently we have great confidence in our
on peak oil. Perhaps what makes this problem so distant to the forces at
exactly when, that is not grounds for exempting current mitigation options
terms of our stance on liquid fuels and their use. We have become so utterly
dependant on such a finite resource, one which is only a blip on the history
of modern civilization. Action needs to be taken now to make sure that peak
oil doesn’t strike without notice and cripple human progress. But then again,
what am I saying? That might be the best thing that ever happened to the
good old U S of A.