Estimating The Impact of Rural Feeder Roads in Rwanda

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RWANDA

Estimating the Impact of


Rural Feeder Roads in Rwanda
What is the impact of rural road upgrading program on market
integration and household welfare in Rwanda?

Rwanda Feeder Roads


Development Program
TARGET AREA:
21 districts across all 4 provinces.

OBJECTIVE:
To bring a motorable road within 2km
of all farms in Rwanda by 2027.

UPGRADING COMPONENTS:
Widening to the new 6-meter
standard (2 lanes); Adding a
base layer and resurfacing with Upgraded rural road
lateritic soil; Constructing drainage
structures.
Context
More information about the Rwanda Feeder Rwanda’s rural road network is estimated at 15,000 km, which consists
Roads Development Program can be found predominantly of very poor condition dirt roads with no current
online at http://projects.worldbank.org/
maintenance program. In 2016, only 55% of the population were within
P126498/rwanda-feeder-roads-development-
2km of an all-season road in good condition. The poor quality of the road
project?lang=en&tab=overview
network hinders trade and rural development. As most roads are not
passable by motor vehicle, farmers rely on human and intermediate
means of transport to bring their products to market, produce tends to
be self-consumed instead of marketed. Poor connectivity also results in
high inputs prices, further constraining smallholder productivity.
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
In this context, the Government of Rwanda (GoR) is engaged in an
Households in the most remote ambitious rural road improvement program (Rwanda Feeder Roads
(poorest on average) areas Development program, RFRDP), financed by four donor agencies
experienced the largest benefits (USAID, EU, the Netherlands and the World Bank). The development
from road rehabilitation, some saw objectives of this program are to enhance market access and reduce
a nearly 20% increase in transport costs for people as well as goods. Over the next four years,
income. the program will upgrade a share of Rwanda’s current feeder road
network into an all-season, maintained dirt road system.
Impact Evaluation Research

Input
Feeder road upgrades
The key research questions of this research are: i) How are market

Output
prices of village imports and exports affected by improvements in Reduced transportation costs
rural roads? ii) How do households adapt to these price changes in
terms of goods produced and purchased? iii) What is the market Access Access to # traders on
to market post-harvest local market
valuation of improved road access as measured by aggregate facilities

Outcomes
land value changes? and iv) To what extent do roads help a region Farmers’ Consumption Price of
develop as measured by total population? sale price choice consumption
goods
Private sector Sales revenues
This Impact Evaluation (IE) uses an event study design, taking growth
advantage of the quasi-random timing of the rollout of rural road

Impact
upgrading across Rwandan districts. The key outcome variables are Jobs In migration Land values Higher household welfare

market prices, land prices, household consumption and production,


Theory of Change
and the key explanatory variable is road roughness before and after
the road upgrading. Identification requires that the exact timing of
the intervention is as good as random. In this context, idiosyncratic
to substantial construction costs, which limits statistical power.
factors such as donor disbursement calendars, construction
This IE presents a unique opportunity for research and policy-
delays, permits and weather all suggest that is indeed the case
making, as the total number of kilometers of roads in RFRDP is
for construction completion date for each road segment. This
far greater than has been afforded by previous, single-donor road
provides plausibly exogenous temporal variations in road quality.
improvement efforts in Africa.
The research team will have data on the exact timing of both the
road improvement initiation and completion dates. Causal changes This IE partners with multiple international donors and the
in outcomes of interest (i.e. prices, quantities traded) can therefore Government of Rwanda to analyze the impact of the RFRDP
be estimated around the timing of the event (rehabilitation). program. It is anticipated that the proposed study will influence
both policy and institutional capacity at the national level and
Preliminary results from the subset of districts with completed
international levels. As roads are set to be constructed all across
segments are promising. Households in the most remote areas
Rwanda during the next four years, this study can affect the amount
are significantly poorer on average. However, they experience
of funds committed in the future.
the largest benefits from road rehabilitation. Incomes in the most
remote villages increase nearly 20%, allowing them to fully catch The spirit of this IE is to leverage the current government’s
up on the initial income gap. Future surveys will show if these investment in administrative data collection, complemented
income gains persist over time. with dedicated household survey data, to document the national
impact of a large infrastructure program. This methodology can be
transferrable to other road infrastructure development in the rest
Policy Relevance of Africa.
Evaluating the impact of large-scale road upgrading on market
conditions in remote rural areas presents a complex methodological For more information email [email protected] or visit
challenge. Typically, a small number of roads are rehabilitated due www.worldbank.org/en/research/dime/brief/transport

The ieConnect for Impact program links project teams with researchers to develop rigorous and
innovative impact evaluations that both substantially improve the evidence-base for policy making and
induce global shifts in transport policy. The ieConnect program is a collaboration between the World
Bank’s Development Impact Evaluation (DIME) unit in the Development Research Group and the
Transport & Digital Development Global Practice (TDD). This program is part of the Impact Evaluation
to Development Impact (i2i) multi-donor trust fund, and is supported by the UKAID’s Department of
International Development (DFID) and the European Union (EU).

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