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Disasters and Development: Bangladesh

Country Profile

Bangladesh is a low-lying country situated in the Bay of

Bengal, Asia – see Figure 1. The country’s geographical
location means that a large proportion of the 162 million
population live on river deltas of the southern coastline
(BBC, 2018). Bangladesh is infamously known for its high
population density, currently 1,252 people per sq. km of
land (World Bank, 2018).

The country, formerly East Pakistan emerged in 1971

through Pakistan’s civil war and conflict with India.
Bangladesh later spent 15 years under military rule until
1990, when democracy was restored. Both youth and
instability are arguably important factors in the deep and
widespread poverty in the country, despite
improvements in recent years (BBC, 2018). Between 2000
and 2016 annual poverty and extreme poverty rates Figure 1. A map of Bangladesh (UN, 2004)
significantly fell –poverty rates decreased from
48.9% to 24.3%, and from 34.3% to 12.9% for extreme
poverty (World Bank, 2017). Although there has be a reduction in poverty in rural areas, there is still
increasing pressure on the country’s capital of Dhaka, as well as other major cities.

However, the climatic conditions of Bangladesh mean that it is extremely vulnerable to natural
hazards such as flooding, cyclones and storm surges, as well as rising sea levels. The Bay of Bengal
acts as a funnel that directs storms towards the coast of Bangladesh, intensifying in the process. The
low-lying topography of the coast is exploited and the vulnerable residents that live across the delta
face mass devastation.

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Development and Disasters

Disasters are frequently viewed as natural hazard events that occur across the globe, with each
hazard having unique circumstances for their occurrence. The criteria which defines what is
classified as a disaster is accordance to the database used in the Table 1 is: 10+ people reported
killed, 100+ reported affected or a Declaration of a State of Emergency.
Disasters can affect all areas of the world (Table 1), however, it is clear to see that Asia constantly in
recent years is the most disaster-prone continent with a total of 2,437 reported disasters between
2006 and 2015. Over this period the number of reported disasters peaked in 2006 with 731 – Asia
contributed to over 40% of these disasters.

Table 1. Total number of reported disasters, by continent and by year (2006-2015)

(IFRC, 2016)

The Disaster Development Nexus works on the basis that disasters can affect development through
the destruction of infrastructure, housing and farmland to increase poverty. However, the
development of settlements on low-lying coastal areas for example, can increase the impacts of
disasters because more of the population are living in hazard prone areas (Main and Williams, 1994
cf. Potter, 2008).

Disaster prevention, mitigation and preparedness are all methods to safeguard development, but
less developed countries cannot afford wide-scale vulnerability reduction through these
safeguarding methods. Development policy can consequently lead to greater disaster risk through:
• Increased exposure to hazards via unsafe urban hillslopes and costal fringes
• Privatisation and liberalisation has increased poverty whilst also reducing state’s capacity to
provide social safety nets

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• Risk reduction can fail – relocation schemes can disrupt livelihood and social networks and
the blurring distinction between development and humanitarian aid
(Schipper and Pelling, 2006)

Natural hazards that trigger disasters can potentially reverse years of development progress. Climate
change also has the power to change the magnitude and frequency of hazards. The vulnerability of
populations to hazards are increasing due to poverty, growing populations and other underlying
development issues (Schipper and Pelling, 2006). The IPCC’s conservative projections about climate
change have caused uncertainty over the changes that may occur during the twenty-first century
(Brooks, Grist and Brown, 2009). These changes are likely to impact the poor in developing
countries, with the UNDP warning that 330 million people could be displaced due to rising sea levels
(Brooks, Grist and Brown, 2009). This could cause further problems such as increased rural-urban
migration and intensified poverty due to overcrowding in cities.

Climate change also threatens to reverse development gains globally by:

• Pursuit of economic growth leading to environmental negligence, consequently making
populations more vulnerable e.g. mangrove forests in Bangladesh
• Changing temperatures, precipitation, sea levels and more unpredictable weather extremes
could affect earnings, health and safety and development in the future
• Contribute to increasing poverty levels as it can affect productive environments, e.g.
agriculture, forestry and coastal zone

Much like the distribution of reported disasters across the world, both economic loss and disaster
mortality from disasters favour parts of Asia with their unequal distribution. The burden of disaster
mortality on less developed countries is becoming increasingly stronger. This is reflected by only 11%
of people exposed to droughts, earthquakes, floods and windstorms being from low development
countries. However, they actually account for over 50% of those who lose their lives (UNDP, 2004).
The map in Figure 2 shows the distribution of mortality risk for a selection of natural hazards. The
trend continues through this figure, as the map highlights large swathes of Asia in red to indicate
higher risk areas, with Bangladesh and north-east China the two major hotspots.

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Figure 2. Map of Global Distribution of multiple hazard morality risk (tropical cyclones, floods,
earthquakes, landslides) (UNISDR 2009: 51)

Another indicator that can show how disasters effect development can come through the analysis of
economic loss from disasters. Mindfully analysis is required when trying to compare data from
developing and developed countries. Developed countries are wealthier and have better
infrastructure which means that their economic loss is generally high. However, once economic loss
is shown in relation to GDP, see Figure 3, it is clear that low-income countries are affected
considerably more than higher income countries. On the other hand, it must be considered that
some disaster-prone areas are becoming more developed. This means that the amount of economic
loss could increase due to the increasing wealth and development of the area rather than the
severity of the disaster (Neumayer and Barthel, 2011). Less developed countries are attempting to
develop with smaller economies whilst also being more at risk to development setbacks due to their
vulnerability to natural disasters.

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% of GDP
0.18

0.16

0.14
0.12
0.10

0.08

0.06
0.04

0.02

Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income

(Source: UNISDR with data from EM-DAT and the World Bank)

Figure 3. Economic losses relative to size of economy (GDP) by income group, 1990-2013 (UNISDR,
2015a: 51)

Case Study: Impacts of the Bhola cyclone on Bangladesh (1970)

By analysing two cyclone disasters in Bangladesh it is possible to assess their impacts on the country
and how it has reacted to the disasters. The first of these disasters, the Bhola Cyclone, struck what
was then East Pakistan, on November 12th 1970. The second cyclone, Sidr, occurred more recently
on November 15th 2007.

There is no accurate number of fatalities for the Bhola

cyclone – it is estimated that at least 250,000 lost their
lives, however, Hossain (2017) suggest that there could
have been up to half a million. Coveted as the deadliest
cyclone of modern times, Bhola was the sixth cyclone of the
season and reached peak winds of 115mph – generating a
20-foot tidal wave (Hossain et al., 2008; Hossain, 2017). The
many offshore islands were the most affected, with the
Tazumuddin area (see Figure 4) losing 45% of its 16,700
population (Paul and Rahman, 2006 cf. Hossain et al. 2008).
The World Bank estimated that a million acres of crop were
destroyed and a further million acres were damaged
(Hossain, 2017).

Figure 4. A map showing the location of

Tazumuddin, Bangladesh (Source: Google
Map, 2018)

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Other impacts of the Bhola cyclone include:

• 280,000 cattle and 500,000 poultry lost
• Around 400,000 houses and 3,500 schools damaged
• 9,000 sea and 90,0000 river boats destroyed – 65% of total fishing capacity
(Franks and Husain, 1971 cf. Hossain, 2017)

The impacts of the Bhola cyclone were poorly managed, partly because of the political situation the
region found itself in. Hossain (2017:4) explains that the Pakistani regime were simply uninterested
in the survival of peasants and fisherfolk, believing disasters were “accepted as part of the
landscape”. The Government’s weak attempts of cyclone protection in the 1960s proved to have
limited impacts.

It was the devastation caused and lack of support from Pakistan that proved stronger than any
manifesto: independence for East Pakistan could be deemed necessary for their survival. Bhola
helped to create a connection between disaster management and national politics, with investment
in protective infrastructure, warning systems and relief supplies coming post-1970 (Hossain, 2017).
After starting on the back foot following the cyclone, Bangladesh was a country inflicted with
poverty and war as it struggled to recover from the disaster. Further suffering was caused by a
devastating famine that stuck Bangladesh in 1974 due to excess flooding, reinforcing the struggles of
adaptation in such a disaster-prone region of the world.

Case Study: Impacts of the Cyclone Sidr on Bangladesh (2007)

Cyclone Sidr is a more recent disaster that occurred on Table 2. Preliminary Assessment by Ministry of
Food and Disaster Management (Shamsuddoha,
November 15th 2007. The wind speed of Cyclone Sidr 2007)
reached 138 mph as it swept across the country’s coastal
belt, resulting in the loss of 3,199 lives (Shamsuddoha,
2007). More in depth details of the destroyed can be found
in Table 2 - but include an economic loss equivalent to
around $3 billion USD from damaged infrastructure and
crop land.

The 3,199 deaths from Cyclone Sidr were a fraction of the

fatalities from the Bhola cyclone, highlighting the progress
that Bangladesh had made in disaster management in the

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previous 27 years. Nonetheless, this number is still extremely high, which Shamsuddoha (2007)
believes is due to the widespread poverty, accommodated by poorly constructed houses, a lack of
shelters and poor forecasting and warning systems. To enhance the difficult rural conditions,
drinking water became saline and contaminated, whilst over two million households were damaged
to some degree (Haque and Jahan, 2016). From Table 3, it is clear to see that agriculture and
infrastructure were hit the hardest in economic terms. This reflects the struggle in Bangladesh to
promote development in all regions of the country, as the more development continues in the
coastal regions of the country, the more there potentially is to lose due to its vulnerability despite
protection and preparedness.

Table 3. A table showing regional damage to sectors due to Cyclone Sidr (Haque and Jahan, 2016)

Source: GoB (2008); Wold Bank (2010)

In the days following the disaster multiple search and rescue operations and relief activities were set
up at national and international level, however, access was still a major problem. A number of NGOs
provided humanitarian the aid to survives of the cyclone through food and temporary shelter. The
World Bank were quick to lend the country $100 million USD to ease the pressure on the
government as well as over $250 million USD for the restoration of livelihood and the rehabilitation
of infrastructure in the post-cyclone recovery (Table 4).

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Table 4. Summary of Medium‐Term Recovery and Reconstruction Interventions (GoB, 2008)

Recommendations for change

Meteorologists use hazards prediction technology to monitor the paths of potentially dangerous
storms. However, cyclone hazards are notoriously difficult to predict as they can often suddenly
weaken or change their course (WMO, 2018). There also has to be consideration of the behavioural
changes of a population, for example, false and over-cautious warnings may cause frustration and
distrust. Along with the persistent threat of natural hazards, the growing uncertainty towards
climate change means that the coastal fringe of Bangladesh faces two options: adaptation in situ or
managed retreat. In order to avoid the mass relocation of millions of people living on the coastal
fringe, adaptation in situ is the preferred option, with the country already facing overcrowding in
urban areas and extreme population density issues.

Within the past decade there has been a major shift in disaster policy that has focused on disaster
risk management. A disaster-prone country like Bangladesh must become more prepared for
disasters, as they become increasingly likely to occur due to climate change. It has also been
highlighted that donors now recognise the effects of post-disaster humanitarian aid can potentially
increase a populations vulnerability in the long term due to reliance and dependency on the aid
(Anderson and Woodrow, 1998 cf. Schipper and Pelling, 2006).

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Therefore, frameworks such as the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 have
been developed in order to help mitigate the effects of disasters by reducing risk rather than
attempting to stop natural hazards which are inevitable for countries like Bangladesh. Also, the 4th
priority of the Sendai Framework is “enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response and to
“Build Back Better” in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction” (UNISDR, 2015b:21). This point is
possible the most important point for Bangladesh to focus on in the future. It is not possible to
prevent natural hazards; however, it is more possible to prevent disasters by ensuring that
populations are better prepared. Also, with both national and international cooperation, Bangladesh
need to focus on rehabilitating the communities of their coastal fringe in order better withstand
hazards through both social and physical infrastructure.

Word count: 2182

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