Geopolitical Panorama2014

Geopolitical overview of Spanish
Institute of
conflicts 2014 Strategic
Studies
MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA
Geopolitical overview Spanish
Institute of
of conflicts 2014 Strategic
Studies
November 2014
SPANISH MINISTRY OF DEFENCE

SPANISH OFFICIAL PUBLICATIONS CATALOGUE
http://publicacionesoficiales.boe.es
Publishes:
SECRETARÍA
GENERAL
TÉCNICA
http://publicaciones.defensa.gob.es/
© Author and Publisher, 2014

NIPO: 083-14-251-1 (print on demand) NIPO: 083-14-250-6 (e-book edition)
Publication date: november 2014 ISBN: 978-84-9091-015-3 (e-book edition)
The authors are solely responsible for the opinions expresed in the articles in this publication.
The exploitation righits of this work are protected by the Spanish Intellectual Property Act. No parts
of this publication may be produced, stored or transmitted in any way nor by any means, electronic,
mechanical or print, including photocopies or any other means without prior, express, written con-
sent of the © copyright holders.
CONTENTS
Chapter one
Ukraine and the new russian geopolitical leadership........................... 9
Miguel Ángel Ballesteros Martín
Introduction................................................................................................................. 11
Background to the conflict........................................................................................ 15
Current situation of the conflict............................................................................... 17
The role of external actors....................................................................................... 24
Bibliography................................................................................................................. 40
Chapter two
Alqaeda and jihadism........................................................................................... 41
Federico Aznar Fernández-Montesinos
Introduction................................................................................................................. 43
The role of external actors: regional implications............................................... 59
Conclusions and perspective................................................................................... 61
Chapter three
Moldova and Transnistria: a frozen conflict in the heart of Europe. 67
Francisco J. Ruiz González
Introduction................................................................................................................. 69
The current state of the conflict.............................................................................. 75
Current relations between Russia and Moldova.................................................. 81
Conclusions and perspectives................................................................................. 84
Annex i –tables: geopolitical indicators & chronology of the conflict............... 86
Bibliography................................................................................................................. 87
5
Página
Chapter four
The arab springs.................................................................................................... 89
Santos Castro Fernández
Introduction................................................................................................................. 91
The role of external players..................................................................................... 106
Chronology of the «arab springs»............................................................................ 111
Bibliography................................................................................................................. 111
Chapter five
Syria: from civil war to regional conflict...................................................... 113
Mario Laborie Iglesias
Introduction................................................................................................................. 115
Conclusions................................................................................................................. 139
Chronology................................................................................................................... 140
Chapter six
Peace processes in Liberia and Sierra Leone:From optimism to
ebola..................................................................................................................... 143
Jorge Bolaños Martínez
Introduction................................................................................................................. 145
Current state of the conflict...................................................................................... 155
Role of external actors.............................................................................................. 162
Ecowas.......................................................................................................................... 164
Conclusions and perspectives for the future........................................................ 170
Chronology................................................................................................................... 172
Geo-political indicators............................................................................................. 174
Bibliography................................................................................................................. 175
Chapter seven
Central African Republic: an open conflict, a remote peace............... 177
Jesús Díez Acalde
Introduction................................................................................................................. 179
Antecedents to the conflict....................................................................................... 180
Geopolitical indicators............................................................................................... 204
Chronology of theCentral African Republic........................................................... 205
International missions in the Central African Republic...................................... 207
Bibliography................................................................................................................. 208
6
Página
Chapter eight
The Democratic Republic of the Congo: a window of opportunity
for peace............................................................................................................ 209
Blanca Palacián de Inza
Introduction................................................................................................................. 211
The role of external players..................................................................................... 229
Perspectives for the future....................................................................................... 233
Chronology of the conflict......................................................................................... 236
Chapter nine
Baluchistan: Pakistan’s most turbulent reality......................................... 237
Jordi Marsal Muntalà
Introduction................................................................................................................. 239
Background.................................................................................................................. 251
Role of external actors.............................................................................................. 258
Conclusions and perspective................................................................................... 262
Bibliography................................................................................................................. 265
Chapter ten
Analysis of the conflict in the central american corridor: network
geopolitics......................................................................................................... 269
Emilio Sánchez de Rojas Día
Introduction................................................................................................................. 271
Conclusions................................................................................................................. 298
Bibliography................................................................................................................. 300
Chapter eleven
Towards signing peace in Colombia.............................................................. 307
Miguel Ángel Serrano Monteavaro
Introduction................................................................................................................. 309
Bibliography................................................................................................................. 330
Chapter twelve
Embers of the division of the indian subcontinent: Assam, Manipur
and Nagaland................................................................................................... 333
María José Izquierdo Alberc
Introduction................................................................................................................. 335
Nagaland...................................................................................................................... 345
External actors............................................................................................................ 348
7
Página
Chronology of the conflict......................................................................................... 354
Bibliography................................................................................................................. 357
Chapter therteen
The China and its neighborhood. The key test for the peaceful
development..................................................................................................... 361
Ignacio García Sánchez
Introduction................................................................................................................. 363
Background to conflict............................................................................................... 367
Import - exports.......................................................................................................... 386
Bibliography................................................................................................................. 388
Chapter fourteen
The Philippines: drawing the claws of the separatists.......................... 391
María del Mar Hidalgo García
Introduction................................................................................................................. 393
Current situation......................................................................................................... 401
A perspective on the conflict.................................................................................... 407
Bibliography................................................................................................................. 411
The working group................................................................................................ 415
8
Ukraine and the new russian geopolitical leadership Chapter
one
Summary:
The history of Ukraine, a country located in Eastern Europe and which

achieved independence in 1991 following the dissolution of the Soviet
Union, is marked by profound divisions: linguistic, political, and above all,
by those produced by the events of the last 100 years. All of these have
made it fertile terrain for the hatching of internal conflicts, which these
days has become the mindset of its successive governments and its peo-
ple. In this chapter, an analysis is made of the conflict between Ukraine
and the separatist forces of Donetsk and Lugansk, in which Russia plays
a leading and decisive role. In addition to studying the strategy of the
two warring parties on Ukranian territory, as well as that of Russia, there
will also be a study of the determinant role being carried out by major
external actors, especially the U.S., the European Union and NATO. This
analysis, which brings together the protagonists and the actors external
to the current conflict, will permit us to establish a certain perspective,
but keeping in mind that recent events, ongoing at the time of writing of
this study, exercise a determining influence on understanding it and on
discerning its resolution. We are dealing, thus, with a conflict in perma-
nent evolution, which is conditioning international relations in all areas,
and which will undoubtedly continue to do so in the future. For all these
reasons, it would be inadvisable to limit the study to the specific tactics of
9
the confrontations produced on the ground, but rather, to open the prism
to carry out a geopolitical analysis, which would allow—as the central
objective of this study—drawing medium- and long-term conclusions.
Key Words
Ukraine, Donetsk, Lugansk, proRussians, Novarussia, Putin, Crimea,

Russia.
10
Ukraine and the new russian geopolitical leadership
Introduction
Ukraine is a young State, almost new, since the periods of independence

have been few and brief. For most of its history, this Eastern European
country has been governed by Moscow. With the creation of the Union
of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1922, Ukraine became one of the
Socialist Republics under the custody, from Moscow, of a strongly cen-
tralist economy and government. Today, Ukrainians over the age of 23
have been citizens of the USSR, and most men over 41 served as soldiers
under the Moscow government.
Following the fall of the Berlin wall on November 10 of 1989, the poli-
tical and economic system of the USSR shattered, and gave way to the
appearance of a number of centrifugal forces which brought about, as
a consequence, the independence of most of the republics, among them
those which today make up Ukraine. In July of 1990, the Declaration of
Ukranian State Sovereignty was the prelude to the definitive independen-
ce aspired to, which would arrive in August of 1991, when it was officially
proclaimed by the Parliament, led by Leonid Kravchuk. Months later, on
December 2nd, a referendum was held which ratified Ukraine as a sove-
reign country with 90% of the votes favorable, while Leonid Kravchuk was
proclaimed, by free and democratic election of the citizens, the first Pre-
sident of the Republic of Ukraine.
On the other side of the northern border, the fragmentation of the USSR
into independent and sovereign Republics provoked a feeling within the
Russian people of profound defeat, humiliation and weakness. However,
the personalist politics of President Vladimir Putin, based on a strong
and even aggressive leadership, as shown in the conflicts in Chechenya,
Georgia and Crimea, have given Russians back their pride and above all
the hope of recovering those territories which historically were Russian
at certain times and which, to a great extent, they still consider to be an
essential part of their history.
Although once independence was reached, backed by an overwhelming ma-
jority, Ukraine became a unitary State, this has not meant the prevention of its
division politically, ethnically, economically and linguistically as well. Thus, the
Russian language is the mother tongue in some regions, among which are the
Crimean Peninsula and the provinces of Donetsk, Lugansk, Jarkov and Odessa.
This is a basic and essential condition for an understanding of the current sce-
nario of confrontation. In the economic field, Ukraine has a very fragile financial
system, with a per capita income of $7,400,1 compared with the $18,100 of
Russia, on whom she is almost absolutely dependant for energy, as 80% of the
gas consumed by Ukraine comes exclusively from Russia.
1
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY. The World Fact Book 2014, p. 194. Available at:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/docs/profileguide.html.
11
Finally, and of great historic relevance, it should be emphasized that major

historic links unite one part of Ukraine with the Russian people. This is a
close relationship which Putin has called to mind on a number of occasions,
based on the creation in the nineteenth century of a new Empire of the Czars
and which was constituted as «Novarussia», including in its makeup, besides
the four aforementioned provinces, those of Jerson and Nikolayevska.
Map of Novarussia in 1897.2
With regard to its demographic data, Ukraine today has a population

of 44.2 million inhabitants, of whom 14.3 million have Russian as their
mother tongue, which represents 29.6% of the total. Within the Rus-
sian-speaking group, 56% are of Russian origin, but there are also more
than 5.5 million ethnic Ukranians whose mother tongue is Russian.
With respect to Crimea, the Russian presence is far superior: statistically,
77% of the population have Russian as their mother tongue.3
It is important also to present further data with reference to the unique
human features of this nation. In the census of 2001, 17.3% of those ci-
tizens registered were of Russian background; compared with the Au-
tonomous Republic of Crimea, whose Russian-speaking community is a
majority with 58.32% of the population, only 24.32% being Ukranian; and
finally, Tartars represent some 12.1% of the total.
Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wik/Novorossiya
2
Ucrania.com. http://www.ucrania.com/Noticias/tabid/54/Entryld/5394/Censo-en-
3
Ucrania-viven-48-milliones-457-mil-persons.aspx.
12
In Ukraine, there is also a notable parallel between the linguistic and eth-
nic division and the East-West political divide, as seen in the map drawn
up following the presidential elections of 2010.
To the centrifugal tendencies of the Russian-speaking populations wi-

thin Ukranian territory, there must be added another problem of identity
in the Transcarpathian region, where the separatist movement is not of
Russian-speaking origin but does additionally weaken the cohesion of
Ukraine.
In Transcarpathia or Ruthenia-Subcarpathia, also known by its name
in Ukranian, Zacarpatia, a number of noteworthy separatist movements
come together. This region once belonged to Hungary, and later to Cze-
choslovakia, until on June 29 of 1945, when it passed into dependence
upon Moscow, which incorporated it into the Soviet Socialist Republic of
Ukraine. With Ukraine’s declaration of independence in 1991, it became
a Ukrainian province called «Óblast Zakarpatia». In all, the region has a
population of more than 80% Ukranian origin, 12% of Hungarian origin,
2.6% of Rumanian origin, 2.5% of Russian origin and a small Ruthenian
population, which is highly active politically in favor of independence.4
On October 26 of 2008, during the second European Congress of Ruthenian
Carpathians held in Mukacheve, the Ruthenian National Movement, led by
Dmytro Sydor, approved the creation of a Ruthenian State, for which the
Kiev government brought penal charges for separatism against Sydor.5
4
Census of Carpathia (Ukraine) of 2001. http://web.archive.org/web/2009043005057/
http://ukrcensus.gov.ua/results/general/nationality/zakarpatia/(Consulted
25-05-2014.)
5
«Right-wing Svoboda ‘sabotages’ Ruthenian Congress in Uzhgorod», KYIVPOST, ar-
ticle of May 1, 2009. http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ikraine/right-wing-svoboda-sa-
13
Another cause of instability in Ukraine is the geopolitical-military position

it occupies between Russia and NATO, as well as between the former and
the European Union in the commercial field. In short, Ukraine represents
a key region for both Russia and the EU, a fact which inexorably condi-
tions Ukranian policy.
Respecting its foreign policy, Ukraine is destined to choose among three
options. The first would be to opt for being a buffer State militarily, main-
taining a balance between her neighbors regarding trade and economics;
the second would consist of establishing a strong military alliance and
economic integration with Russia and the Euroasiatic Union; and the third
and last would see her integration into NATO and the beginning of a pro-
cess of preferential economic and trade agreements with the EU6, with
the objective of membership in the Union.. To these three options must be
added the several variants resulting from the coherent combinations that
may be created at any given time.
Another indicator of the importance of this geopolitical region becomes
evident in the extraordinary interest which Russia demonstrates regar-
ding this area, opposing any approach by Ukraine to NATO and even to the
EU. But its military and political interest go further, towards considering
the integration under its sovereignty of territories key to its national se-
curity strategy, such as in the case of Crimea.
And in its aim to exercise leadership in the region, Russia does not hesi-
tate to displace any other power attempting to influence the area. Such
has been the case with the U.S. and even the E.U. in the last two decades.
From the time of Catherine the Great, at the end of the seventeenth century,
Russia has attempted to control the Black Sea, from where she sought an
exit into the warm seas of the South in order to guarantee the mobility of
her fleet throughout the year. This gives great strategic value to the Ukra-
inian littoral and especially so to the Crimean peninsula, where lies the
Sebastopol Naval Base with the Black Sea Fleet, which together with the
Baltic, Northern and Pacific Fleets, constitute Russian naval power.
In addition, Ukraine is a country of passage for the Russian oil pipelines
which supply Europe and the East with energy, increasing the geopolitical
value of the region for both Russia and the EU.
In view of the foregoing, it is not difficult to grasp that the geopolitical
tension which Ukraine suffers from is principally caused by the tense
relations between the Ukrainian and Russian governments. Thus, each
time Kiev approaches the EU and NATO, Russia reacts in an attempt to
impede this.
botages-Ruthenian-congress-in-40705.html (consulted 25-05-2014).

6
The Agreement of Association between the UE and Ukraine was ratified on Septem-
ber 16 of 2014, to be put into effect in 2016.
14
Background to the conflict
In November of 2014, the Ukrainian government intended to sign an

Agreement of Association and Free Trade with the European Union,
which would hamper participation in the EuroAsiatic Union,7 as advoca-
ted by Russia. With the ratification of this accord, she inclined her poli-
cy towards the European side and to the detriment of Russia. President
Victor Yanukovich, pressured by Moscow, decided in extremis not to sign
the agreement, and this refusal sparked demonstrations in the Maidan
plaza (Kiev), which became permanent disturbances and as time passed
finally degenerated into armed clashes between supporters of President
Yanukovich and his opponents.
On January 20th of 2014, known as Black Thursday, more than 60 de-
monstrators lost their lives in the confrontations. The scale of the vio-
lence forced a change in the government, which was shown to be inca-
pable of pacifying the conflict. At last, on February 22 of 2014, President
Yanukovich fled into Russia, while the Supreme Rada,8 the single-cham-
bered Parliament, named as provisional President Arseny Yatsenyuk. The
first decision was to revoke the law of the co-official nature of languages,
which greatly inflamed feelings in the Russian-speaking regions. The
same day, demonstrators took over the principal institutions of Kiev.
Russian analysis of the events in the Maidan Plaza was reflected in the
words of President Putin9 before the ambassadors and Permanent Re-
presentatives of the Russian Federation: «All of us in Europe need some
type of security network so that the precedents of Irak, Lybia, Syria and, as
I must regrettably include in this group, Ukraine, do not act as contagious
diseases. This is particularly dangerous in the post-Soviet space, given that
these States are not politically and economically consolidated, and do not
possess politically stable systems.»
Paradoxically, the revolts at Maidan have benefitted the Russian and
pro-Russian interests in the region, which for some time had awaited
an opportunity to become independent of Kiev and to request the pro-
tection of Moscow. Exploiting the weakness of the Ukrainian provisional
government, on February 27th, the Crimean separatists raised the Rus-
7
The EuroAsiatic Union was a project of economic and political union based on the
Customs Union of Russia, Kazhakhistan, and Byelorussia, to which were invited other
countries such as Ukraine. The creation agreement was signed under Putin’s leaders-
hip on May 29 of 2014.
8
The Supreme Rada is the name given to the Ukrainian Parliament.
9
PUTIN, Vladimir, Speech of July 1 of 2014 before Ambassadors and Per-
manent Representatives of Russia, text from the Russian Embassy in Spain,
http://spain.mid.ru/es/noticias/-asset_publiher/VQoWUGohJ7ON/content/
speech-of-ambassadors-and-permanent-representatives-of-russia.
15
sian flag on the buildings of the Presidency and of the Parliament of the
Autonomous Republic of Crimea. The following day, armed pro-Russian
groups took over the two Crimean airports, and a militia, without identi-
fying badges but well-trained and uniformed, deployed at key points for
control of Crimea. The militiamen, who all covered their faces with the
same type of high collar to avoid being identified, showed themselves to
be a well-trained military group. The license plates of the vehicles were
covered, so as to avoid any identification. In the eyes of any military
analyst, it was obviously a case of military personnel formed into cohe-
sive and disciplined units, with many months of instruction and training
with Russian materiel, and not of civilians transformed into a militia.
With the passing of time, and once achieved his objectives, Putin would
admit to the participation of Russian military personnel in the insurgent
rising of Crimea.
The recovery of the Crimean Peninsula, including the base at Sebastopol,
has a great strategic value for Russia. To minimize international reaction, it
was important to act quickly, before Europe, self-absorbed in its economic
crisis, and the U.S., reorienting its interests toward the Asian Pacific, had
time to react. On the other hand, there was a need to exploit the weakness
of the provisional government and its lack of legality. Russia provided an
immediate response to each event without improvising, as if it formed part
of a previously studied plan. Worth special mention is her communications
strategy, where the fundamental idea was to emphasize the lack of legiti-
macy of President Turchinov, since his arrival in power had been due to a
coup d’État. On the other hand, she maintained that upon integrating Cri-
mea under her sovereignty, she was attending to the demands of the ma-
jority of the Crimean population, just as expressed in a referendum. Given
the lack of spokesmen for the separatists of the Autonomous Republic of
Crimea, the work of communication directed at international public opinion
was designed and carried out by Russia. In every field, President Putin had
taken the initiative, while the Ukrainian government was thrown off stride
by the challenges presented by the separatists.
In light of Ukranian institutional weakness, the Crimean separatists de-
cided to move forward the referendum on independence and integration
into Russia, originally to be held on May 25th, later moved forward to
March 30, and finally carried out on March 16th. On March 11th, the Auto-
nomous Republic of Crimea and the City of Sebastopol had declared their
independence, which was immediately recognized by Russia. This would
allow Russia to guarantee the holding of the referendum despite any pos-
sible Ukranian or international obstruction.
The result of the referendum in Crimea was overwhelming: 96.77% voted
in favor of annexation into the Russian Federation, with 83.1% participa-
ting. In Sebastopol, the result was 95.6% in favor of annexation and par-
16
ticipation by 89.51%.10 On March 1st, the provisional Prime Minister of the

Autonomous Republic of Crimea, the Russian of Moldavian origin, Serguei
Aksionov, requested assistance from President Putin in order to «guaran-
tee peace».11 On the same day, the Council of the Russian Federation autho-
rized the sending of troops to Ukraine, so making clear her determination
in this crisis12 and the fact that it had all been thought out in advance.
Three days after the referendum, the President of Russia, the President of
the State Council of Crimea—a Moldavian-born Russian—Vladiiri Konstan-
tinov, Prime Minister Aksionov, and the self-proclaimed Mayor of Sebasto-
pol, Alexei Chaly, signed an interstate agreement on the integration of the
Republic of Crimea and the city of Sebastopol into the Federation of Russia.
With respect to Russian public opinion, Putin’s victory was also enor-
mous: his popularity rating rose to 80%, when in March of 2012 he had
been elected President with 63.6 of the Russian votes.13
Current situation of the conflict
On May 25th, Presidential elections took place in Ukraine which, with a

60% turnout, were won by Petro Poroshenko in the first round (54.1% of
the votes cast), followed by Julia Timoshenko (13.15%). The parties led by
the Euromaidan received scarcely 2% among them all.
Following these electoral results, Poroshenko came into power deter-
mined to undertake a number of constitutional reforms, which would
reinforce the role of the Presidency of the Republic. Within a few days,
he presented a 14-point peace plan. One of those points was the es-
tablishment of a ten-kilometer-wide neutralized zone along the Rus-
sian border, with the purpose of avoiding the entry of combatants and
arms coming out of Russia. Another point demanded the unconditional
surrender of the separatists, as a condition for the ending of military
operations. With time, he would reduce this demand, and on July 4th,
proposed holding conversations with the pro-Russian separatists to set
the conditions for a lasting ceasefire, although with the previous condi-
tion that hostages be released, and Russian-Ukrainian border control
be established.14
10
RT, Russian television channel in Spanish (17th March 2014).
11
News item published by Russian network RT at http://actualidad.rt.com/actuali-
dad/view/121229-crimea-primer-ministro-putin-ayuda-russia. March 1 2014.
12
«Russia authorizes sending its army to the entire territory of Ukraine». News agen-
cy item published in «El Mundo» March 1, 2014. Available at http://www.elmundo.es/
internacional/2014/03/011/53118b09ca474181578b456c.html.
13
BONET, Pilar. «Dozens of arrests in Russia in protests over electoral fraud.» Article
in «El Pais», March 6th, 2014.
14
EFE News Agency report, July 8th, 2014, Kiev.
17
The passing of time worked against Ukraine, and in favor of the rebels and
of Russia. In this context, it is not surprising that on July 3rd, President Po-
rochenko instigated the naming of a new Defense Minister, Valerei Guele-
tei, from whom he demanded structural reforms in the Ukranian Armed
Forces in order to accelerate operations. This was the third turnover in
the Defense portfolio since February, a clear sign that operations against
the separatists were not being successful. Porochenko came to admit that
«Operation Anti-terrorist», launched in mid-April of 2014, had revealed the
many failings in the logistics systems of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Throughout this crisis, Ukraine has tried to avoid any news reports about
civilian deaths caused by its troops, a question which could damage its
national and international position, giving an excuse to Russia for military
intervention, as occurred in Georgia. The rebels, on the other hand, attemp-
ted to prolong the conflict in order to achieve direct Russian intervention.
In any case, Russia has already demonstrated in Crimea that she follows
a policy of fait accompli, and in order to do so is capable of ignoring in-
ternational law when she feels it necessary. If Putin intends to control
Novarussia in the medium to long term, he will set about taking steps to
achieve this. The question is: How long does Putin give himself to advan-
ce with this strategy? The answer will depend on several factors: on the
one hand, on events, and on the other, whether circumstances provide
new opportunities for Russia, as happened in Crimea. Meanwhile, Russia
charges the Ukrainian Armed Forces with violating international humani-
tarian law against her own people.
18
Ukrainian troops reinforced their offensive to recover the rebel territory.

The objective was Donetsk, for which the Ukrainian National Council of
Security and Defense designed a conventional operation, in which it ad-
vanced first towards the east and then towards the south, in the direc-
tion of Donetsk, following the cities of Slaviansk, Kramatosk, Avdeyevka,
Gorlovka, etc. Specifically, the city of Slaviansk, with 120,000 inhabitants,
was the symbol of resistance of the rebels until it was liberated by Ukra-
nian troops on July 6th, after two months of intense combat. According to
Andrei Lisenko,15 spokesman for the Ukranian National Council for Secu-
rity and Defense, the Ukranian Armed Forces were trying to cut off access
to the cities of Donetsk and Lugansk, to keep the rebels from receiving
arms and reinforcements. On their part, the pro-Russian rebels based
their strategy on gaining time, and defended themselves in the cities whi-
le waiting for the Russians to cross the border to give them military su-
pport. In view of the advance of the Ukrainian army, Russia found herself
obliged to send in troops and materiel to avoid the defeat of the rebels.
At the end of August, the Ukrainian government displayed Russian sol-
diers captured inside Ukrainian territory some 20 kilometers from the
border, and NATO exhibited photos of Russian units inside Ukraine, esti-
mating about 1,000 Russian soldiers. For their part, the rebels admitted
to the presence of Russian combatants within their ranks, but not that
they were Russian units.
The head of the Donybassyha Popular Militia, Igor Strelkov,16 better known
as Girkin, is a former Russian officer who, by using a distracting manoeu-
vre, was able to break through the siege of Slaviansk, thus saving 80%
of his troops and 90% of his armored vehicles, which he concentrated on
the «active defense» of Donetsk. Following the fighting, Strelkov made
statements confirming Russian aid: «The aid arriving from Russia now is
what we needed a month ago; at that time it would have allowed us to achie-
ve great successes. Now it barely lets us hold out, but with no possibility of
inclining the balance in our favor.»
For their part, the leaders of the Popular Republic of Lugansk admitted
at the beginning of the conflict that their intention was to free the border
area of the Russian Federation they wanted to join, so expediting the re-
ception of Russian aid. Meanwhile, the head of the self-proclaimed Po-
pular Republic of Donetsk, Dennis Pushilin, criticized Vladimir Putin on
the social network Twitter for not having intervened when, according to
Pushilin, Putin had given them hope by leading them to believe that he
would defend the Russian people of Novarussia.
EFE News Agency Report, 8th July 2014, Kiev.

15
Interview with Igor Strelkov published on http://novorussia.su/node/2533. June 9,

16
2014 (consulted September 2nd, 2014).
19
As seen above, some important insurgent leaders are Russian. Outstan-

ding among them is Alexandre Borodai, 41, former Prime Minister of the
self-proclaimed Popular Republic of Donetsk, holding a degree in Phi-
losophy from Moscow State university. He arrived in Donetsk after the
integration into Russia of Crimea, where he had been an advisor to Sergei
Aksyonov, governor of the Republic of Crimea and a Russian of Moldavian
origin. Borodai participted in the conflict of Transnistria, which proclai-
med itself independent and is controlled by Moscow. With reference to
Girkin,17he was born in Moscow in 1970, was a colonel in the Russian
army and is a specialist in the history of the civil war between the bols-
heviks and the White Russians as well as a participant in the two wars of
Chechnya and in the Transnistrian conflict. In February of 2014, he was
tasked with the formation of popular militias in Crimea.
Returning to the area of operations, it was important for both armed fac-
tions to control the ports and airports which facilitate logistics and the
movement of troops. Thus, the pro-Russian militia has fought heavy ba-
ttles for control of the airports at Lugansk and Donetsk. The cease-fire
agreements of September 5th were violated in order to attack Ukranian
forces which had holed up inside the Donetsk airport, as well as to mount
an onslaught against those defending the city of Mariupol, important for
its port, which would make an excellent logistics base.
As the conflict developed, one event of transcendental importance was
the downing of a Boeing777, flight MH-17 of the Malaysian Airlines com-
pany, on July 17th 2014. The attack was carried out from an area con-
trolled by the pro-Russian rebels, causing the death of 298 passengers
and crew travelling from Amsterdam to Kuala Lampur. The investigation
carried out though analysis of the black box and the remains of the plane
confirmed the first hypothesis: the plane had been struck by an interme-
diate-range missile, probably a SAM-11 («Buk»), and on the basis of this
data, it is certain that it was launched from a rebel-controlled zone.
But there is additional evidence as well which points in the same direc-
tion. A few days earlier, the pro-Russian insurgents had claimed respon-
sibility for the downing of an Antonov flying at an altitude of 7,000 me-
ters, which means that it could not have been downed by a low-range
missile. It would be absurd to suspect the Ukrainian forces of originating
the attack, considering that the plane entered over the western border
and overflew Ukraine under Ukrainian control until arriving in insurgent
territory. The insurgents had no planes at their disposition, so there is no
chance they could have confused it with a military plane. Such an error
was possible in the case of the insurgents, if the IFF (friend-enemy) radar
were not working. In any case, if there is one thing irrefutable, it is the
17
BONET, Pilar. Crusaders of the Empire, Article in «El Pais», July 7 2014 available on: http://
internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/o7/19/actualidad/1405805851_923988.html.
20
damnable and abominable nature of the action: fire was opened on a pla-
ne not certainly identified as an enemy and very easily determined to be
civil aviation, especially in light of its altitude at 10,000 meters, normally
used for commercial flights.
The U.S: and some European nations accused Russia of having provided
the missiles to the insurgents, but it should not be forgotten that an an-
ti-air system of this type is very complex to handle, adjust and maintain,
which would imply, apart from providing war materiel, the need for Rus-
sian cooperation in training personnel or Russian operators.
On September 3rd, President Putin proposed to his Ukrainian counterpart a
seven-point plan18 to stop the bloodshed and achieve peace in Ukraine. This
was accepted by Porochenko, without modification and at a time of enor-
mous weakness, since Kiev’s troops were losing ground and did not foresee
receiving outside reinforcement. The plan proposed the following actions:
1. Paralyse the assault operations of the Armed Forces and the units
of the Southeastern Ukrainian Militias in the regions of Donetsk
and Lugansk.
2. Withdraw armed Ukrainian units to a distance which would exclu-
de the possibility of artillery attacks and various missile systems
used against populated areas.
3. Use international observers to insure that both parties respec-
ted the cease-fire and carry out follow-up of the situation in se-
curity zone.
4. Exclude the use of combat planes against the civilian population,
as well as against populated areas of the conflict zone.
5. Carry out prisoner exchange on an «all for all» basis and with no
previous conditions.
6. Open humanitarian corridors to permit movement of refugees and
the delivery of humanitarian supplies to the cities and other points
in Donbass: the provinces of Donetsk and Lugansk.
7. Make it possible for teams of technicians to arrive at affected loca-
tions in Donbass to restore infrastructure.
The fact that President Porochenko accepted this plan, which considerably
limited his sovereignty over Donetsk and Lugansk, was a clear indication
that he had arrived at the conclusion that Russian military aid to the sepa-
ratists—as widely revealed in early September—would impede a definitive
military victory by the Kiev troops. In the face of this, there realistically only
remained a political solution, in spite of the fact that this could only preju-
dice Ukrainian interests and in contrast, provide broad benefits to Moscow
and the rebels.
The Russian leader explained to the press that he had sketched out his plan for a
18
solution to the Ukrainian crisis during the flight to Mongolia.
21
Economic aspects of the conflict
At the time the revolt in Maidan began, Ukraine was a country on

the edge of bankruptcy. To this economic situation, there must be
added the expenses of the conflict of Donetsk and Lugansk, which
according to Ukranian President Petro Poroshenko cost 70 million
Grivnas/day ($5.6 million). This huge financial crisis obliged the
Ukrainian government19 to ask the Supreme Rada to approve a tax
law, budget and fiscal policy carrying a rise in duties to pay the ex-
penses of the conflict. 20
The two political parties sustaining the government up to that time, UDAR
and Svoboda (Liberty), failed to support the law, alleging that big capital
should pay for the conflict. This led to the dissolution of the government
coalition and the resignation of Arseni Yatseniuk, who was replaced as
Acting Prime Minister by Vladimir Groysman, an independent who until
that moment had been Vice Prime Minister.
Thus, the government was left in the minority, obliged to call elections,
and with the tax law unapproved, creating a situation which meant, in
the words of former Prime Minister Yatseniuk,21 «The laws have not
been passed, and there is no money to pay the policeman, the doctor, the
teacher. There is no money to buy a single rifle, to fuel a single armored
vehicle». In this economic scenario, the weakness of the Ukrainian go-
vernment and the lack of funds for the Armed Forces represented a
major obstacle for the effort necessary to recover the territories of
Donetsk and Lugansk.
The per capita income of Russia triples that of Ukraine, which in itself repre-
sents a strong incentive for the Russian-speaking populations to desire their in-
tegration into Russia. In July, more than 50,000 Ukrainian refugees had reques-
ted political asylum in Russia, while 27,000 had applied for Russian citizenship.
The energy factor as key element
The map below shows the network of gas pipelines coming out of Russia
to supply all of Central Europe, as well as those from Algeria and Libya
to supply Spain and Italy. However, the two distribution networks do not
make up an integrated system since they are interrupted in France.
19
EFE Agency News Report, July 31st 2014, Kiev.
20
Sergei Sobolov, pro-government Congressman and author of the tax bill. This tax to
underwrite the offensive against the rebels represented 1.5% of the monthly salary of
fiscal persons. The law is less demanding for those citizens who have an annual income
of around 500,000 Grivnas ($40,000), who would pay 10%, while those who earn 100
million Grivnas ($8 million) would pay a 25% war tax.
21
EFE Agency News Report, 24th July, 2014, Kiev.
22
Some 80% of the energy consumed in the EU comes from fossil fuels (pe-
troleum, natural gas and coal). Fifty percent of these come from outside
the EU, which is thus highly vulnerable to the cut-off of gas and to price
rises due to international crises.
In this energy context, Russia provides 30% of the gas as well as 18%
of the petroleum consumed in the European Union. These figures have
shown an upward tendency in recent years, increasing European energy
dependency with respect to Russia.
Additionally, the gas pipeline network is rigid and creates a client-su-
pplier dependency which at this point limits Europe’s freedom of ac-
tion. Central Europe depends on Russian gas, but Russia also has a
great economic dependency on these sales. In light of all this, the
Ukrainian crisis throws into relief the importance of the availability
of an integrated gas pipeline system originating from the East (Rus-
sia) and the South (Algeria and Libya) so that, in this way, Europe
may diversify its supply sources, to which must be added re-gasifi-
cation plants.
Another important aspect in this field are the disagreements over the
price of gas between Ukraine and Russia, which have led Gazprom to sue
Ukraine before the Tribunal of Arbitration in Stockholm, where she claims
payment of a debt of 4.5 billion dollars in outstanding supply bills. Until
March of 2014, Russia paid for the use of the base at Sebastopol with a
23
30% reduction in its gas invoice. At that point, the price of the gas stood at
$268.50 per thousand cubic meters. After the annexation of the Crimea,
Gazprom raised the price to $485, a figure which Ukraine considered ex-
cessive.22 This weighs down the Ukrainian economy.
The Russian viewpoint on the price of the gas supplied to Ukraine was
left very clear by President Putin23 when he stated: «They demand a
reduction in the price of our merchandise which has no justification wha-
tever, in spite of which the agreement was signed in 2009, and was com-
plied with in good faith by the partners. But now, as you know, the courts
of Kiev have withdrawn the charges against former Prime Minister Julia
Timoshenko, who signed this contract. In other words, the judicial power
of Kiev itself has recognized that everything has been done not only in
accordance with the rules of international law but also with those of
Ukranian law.»
Since July 16th, Gazprom has begun to apply a pre-payment system to
the supply of gas to Ukraine. In June, Vladimir Putin explained before the
Russian ambassadors24 that «Right now, if Ukraine does not pay, it does
not receive, or receives through the so-called reversion. We know what this
reversion is: it is an artificial reversion. How can gas be carried in both di-
rections through the same pipelines? One need not be a specialist in the gas
sector to understand that this is something unreal. They have made shady
deals with their partners: basically, they receive our gas and pay some Wes-
tern partner in Europe who will not receive a complete shipment. We see
everything.»
With all these factors on the table, Russia will undoubtedly continue using
gas as a weapon of pressure against Ukraine, even more so as winter
approaches, since by then the pressure will be greater and may affect the
supply of gas to Europe.
The role of external actors
Russia
Formally, Russia is an external actor in this conflict, and that is the vi-
sion thus stating that25 the negotiations for the peaceful solution of the
22
Euronews report of 6-16-2014. Available at htp://es.euronews.com/2014/06/16/
Ukraine-no-longer-receives-gas-from.Russia/.
23
PUTIN, Vladimir, Conference of Ambassadors and Permanent Representatives of Rus-
sia, Russian Embassy in Spain, http://spain.mid.ru/es/noticias/asset_publisher/VQoWUGo-
hJ7ON/content/conference-of-ambassadors-and-permanent-representatives-of-Russia.
24
Ibid.
25
PUTIN, statements on the commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the Normandy
landings in France. June 6th, EFE Agency, Moscow 7-6-2014.
24
conflict cannot be between Ukraine and Russia, since «Russia is not part
of the conflict. The parties are the Kiev authorities and those in favor of
Federalization in the East.» However, President Poroshenko26 recogni-
zed the importance of Russia in the conflict and in its solution as well,
upon indicating that «A Russian representative will come to Ukraine with
whom we will discuss the first steps for the settlement of the situation and
the plan which I as President have presented and which foresees a series
of steps on the part of the Russian Federation and others on the part of
Ukraine.»
According to Sergey Lavrov, 27 Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs,
Washington and some of the European countries made a decision
some time ago to isolate Russia. Taking the borders of NATO to Rus-
sia would form part of that strategy. Along these same lines, in June
of 2014 Vladimir Putin told his Ambassadors and Permanent Repre-
sentatives28 that «the events provoked in Ukraine are the concentra-
ted expression of the policy of containment of the early Cold War.»
It should be remembered that the U.S. «Kennan strategy of contain-
ment», implemented at the beginning of the fifties, consisted of for-
ming alliances with the countries located around Russia or its allies.
In this alliance of Ukraine with the UE or, worse yet, its integration
into NATO, Putin glimpsed what he supposed would bring the limits
of NATO to the borders of Russia, as already occurred in the Balkan
countries. He sees this as a kind of siege within a U.S.-NATO strategy
of containment, which the Russian government does not seem dispo-
sed to accept so easily.
In fact, this Russian charge regarding NATO has been permanent. Putin29
made this clear upon recognizing that «Our partners have been persuading
Russia for the last two decades of their good intentions and their will to build
a system of strategic cooperation together. However, parallel to this, again
and again they have enlarged NATO and have moved the political-military
space they control closer and closer to our borders.»
With regard to the European Union, the Russian response to its enlarge-
ment towards Eastern Europe has been the creation of the Euro-Asiatic
Economic Union, the driving forces behind which are Russia, Byelorus-
sia and Khazakhistan.30 In the speech to the ambassadors quoted abo-
ve, President Putin emphasized that «In Ukraine, our nationals, the Rus-
26
News Report, EFE Agency in Moscow, 6-6-2014.
27
LAVROV, Sergey, Interview at the ITAR-TASS Agency on 11-11-2014.
28
PUTIN,Vladimir,ConferenceofAmbassadorsandPermanentRepresentativesofRussia,Rus-
sian Embassy in Spain, http://spain.mid.ru/es/noticias/-asset_publisher/VQoWUGohJ7ON/
content/conference-of-ambassadors-and-permanent-representatives-of-Russia
29
Ibid.
30
The Accord for the creation of the Euro-Asiatic Economic Union was signed on May
29th in Astana.
25
sian people and those of other nationalities, see a threat to their language,
their history, their culture and their legitimate rights, guaranteed precisely
by the agreements of the European Union. On speaking of Russians and
Russian citizens, I am referring to those persons who feel part of what we
call in the broadest sense the Russian world, not necessarily the persons
whose ethnic origin is Russian, but rather all those who consider themsel-
ves Russian.»
With this declaration of intentions, President Putin clearly indicated that
populations speaking Russian or of pro-Russian sentiments within coun-
tries such as Ukraine, Georgia or Byelorussia, among others, are conside-
red by the Russian authorities as «fellow countrymen», and as such, that
their rights must be guaranteed.
In this meeting with the Russian diplomats, Putin also wondered:
«How did our partners expect us to react in the face of the evolution
of events in Ukraine? We certainly had no right to leave the citizens of
Crimea and Sebastopol abandoned to the fortunes of the radical and
nationalist belligerents, we could not allow our access to the Black Sea
to be substantially limited, nor a combat with the soldiers and sailors
of Crimean land at Sebastopol to intensify, and, in short, NATO troops to
arrive at speed and radically modify the balance of power on the Black
Sea littoral.» This remark clearly reflects Putin’s outlook: In Crimea,
all the circumstances were propitious for Russian intervention, and
the question now is, how important is it to Russia to annex the terri-
tory they call Novorussia?
In order to answer this question, the first thing that must be said is
that the annexation of Novorussia would make possible the integration
of Transistria into that territory, which would mean her definitive in-
dependence from Moldavia. In this scenario, Ukraine would be weaker
and over time would be destined to fall under the control of Moscow. In
any case, Russia would be assured of leadership in the region. So, then:
To what extent is President Putin willing to involve himself in further
conflict with respect to Novorussia? The solution is to be found, once
again, in the speech the President gave to the Russian ambassadors31:
»our country,» Putin emphasized, «will continue defending energetically
the rights of Russians, of our fellow countrymen living abroad, and to do
so will make use of the entire arsenal of means she possesses: from the
political and economic to the right to self-defense covered under the inter-
national law of humanitarian operations.» This comment backed up his
statements several days earlier before the referendum32 on self-deter-
31
PUTIN, Vladimir, Conference of Ambassadors and Permanent Representatives of
Russia, op.cit.
32
The referendum on the political status of Donetsk and Lugansk was held May 11
2014 and the result was 91.78% vote in favor of the independence of the Popular Repu-
26
mination for Donetsk and Lugansk was held: «We must do everything to
help those people defend their rights and decide their destiny for themsel-
ves. For that, we are going to fight.» Days later, and following the start of
the Ukranian government’s anti-terrorist operation against the rebels
in the region of Donetsk and Lugansk, the Russian Senate provided the
President of the Kremlin with authorization for the use of the Russian
Armed Forces on Ukranian territory in defense of the Russian-speaking
population.
All of these comments reflect Russia’s aspiration to hold a place of world
leadership, on an equal footing with the U.S. and China, as Putin set forth
so well in his speech to the ambassadors:33 «We have always aspired to
be partners who are reliable and who carry things out on a basis of equa-
lity. Nonetheless, too often our legitimate interests have been ignored. And
with regard to international forums, what will happen from now on? If we
are limited to the role of allied observers with neither voice nor vote on key
questions of crucial interest to us, these forums will cease to be of interest
to us. We are not going to pay, for permission to sit at their side, with our vital
interests.»
With his words, Putin distances himself from diplomatic solutions and
prefers those of fait acompli which have served him so well in Crimea
and Georgia. Following this policy of intervention, Russia has set about
varying the number and type of units deployed along the Ukrainian
border, with the clear objective of influencing the conflict, giving moral
support to the separatists and even providing support for the firing of
a number of rocket-launchers against positions of the Ukrainian Army,
according to reports from the U.S.34 According to NATO reports, Russia
had deployed, at the end of July, approximately 12,000 troops in the
immediate vicinity of the border with Ukraine in support of the sepa-
ratist rebels, a major military contingent which increased to 20,000
military personnel in August, when the troops of Kiev launched an ad-
vance on Donetsk.
The presence on the part of Russian military personnel with numerous
aircraft, who could support the rebels simply by making the decision
to do so, represented a major factor of instability and made Russia a
direct protagonist in the conflict, at the same time providing a source
of heavy pressure on the Ukranian forces. In addition, the Russian for-
ces had at their disposition tank units, providing great combat potential;
special operations units, capable of infiltrating, acting and withdrawing
within and from Ukrainian territory; artillery campaign units to support
blic of Donetsk, and 7.1% NO to independence, with a 74.87% turnout.

33
PUTIN, Vladimir, Conference of Ambassadors and Permanent Representatives of
Russia, op. Cit.
34
EFE Agency News Report, 29/07/2014.
27
the rebel militia; and finally, anti-aircraft units to act against Ukrainian
aircraft and logistics units.
In view of this military deployment by Russia, the Supreme Commander
of NATO in Europe, American General Philip Breedlove,35 stated that «The
Russian Army is again concentrating its forces on the eastern side of the
border. There are now around eight battalions there. They have the capacity
to cross the border in case of need», adding that «the support of the Russian
Army for the pro-Russian forces is very active.»
But undoubtedly the greatest support provided by Russia by act or
by omission has been the number of Russian Militiamen integrated
into the militias of Dombass, not forgetting the arms transferred. In
addition, and in order to counter the pressure from the U.S., Russia
decided to threaten to break or paralyze the accords on the limitation
of nuclear warheads, especially with reference to medium-range mis-
siles. In reaction, the U.S. accused the Russian authorities of failing to
comply with their commitments to disarmament, which were agreed
upon in the treaty for the elimination of short- and medium-range
nuclear missiles (INF). Among other goals, the treaty aims to redu-
ce instability in Europe, since it avoids the threat of rapid attacks on
strategic objectives, with barely any time to react. In Rasmussen’s36
words, the Treaty «strengthens the security of all of us, including Rus-
sia’s.» For her part, Russia accuses the American government of ha-
ving, on repeated occasions, violated the said treaty by placing inter-
ceptor missiles within the framework of the antimissile shield, which
Moscow considers a threat to its security. Additionally, Moscow feels
the U.S. commits many other violations, among which she includes
the production of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) which are equi-
pped with arms, as well as the Mark-41 systems, capable of launching
medium-range cruise missiles, and which the U.S. wishes to place in
Poland and Rumania.
Finally, and in view of the possible integration of Ukraine into NATO, Pu-
tin has not hesitated to issue a reminder that Russia is a nuclear nation
which is rearming, just as confirmed by the words of the NATO Secretary
General37: «Russian military spending has grown more than 10% in real
terms each year for the last five, and in contrast several European allies
have cut back their defense spending more than 25% in the same period, and
some even more than 40%.»
35
Gen. Breedlove, declarations made to the STA Agency, 9 July, 2014, during a visit to
Slovenia.
36
EFE Agency News Report, 30/07/2014.
37
Remarks by Anders Fogh-Rasmussen at the World Security Forum in Bratislavia,
May 15, 2014.
28
The United States
Initially, the U.S. position was to adopt a relatively low profile with respect
to this conflict. This attitude became evident when Russia annexed Cri-
mea. At that time, and in violation of international law, both the European
Union and the United States themselves did no more than impose sym-
bolic sanctions against a limited number of persons close to the Russian
president. Later, and at the time when confrontation on the ground was
increasing, the U.S. increased her sanctions against Russia. However, the
important negative repercussions that these economic measures have
for the European Union—as collateral damages of this conflict—has cau-
sed the field of application of the sanctions to be very limited; which, in
the end, has favored President Vladimir Putin’s reinforcement of his po-
licy of fait acompli.
All these actions have raised grave concern in the countries of the
East which are allied to the West; and to tranquilize their state of mind,
President Obama has repeatedly guaranteed them his support. Thus,
on June 3rd, President Barack Obama announced a $100 million plan
for direct aid to these Eastern European countries, including Moldavia
and Georgia. The plan, in addition, foresees the training of the armed
forces of the NATO countries which border on Russia. Later, the Ameri-
can government notified Congress of its decision to invest, on the one
hand, up to $19 million in 2015 to train and arm the National Guard of
Ukraine, with the aim of increasing its defense capacity; and on the
other hand, to contribute $8 million to reinforcing the Border Guard
service of Ukraine.
The European Union
In dealing with the role of the European Union in this crisis, it is ne-
cessary to remember that at its origin, and as an «unprovoked cause»
of the conflict, stands the demand for exclusivity made by the EU to
Ukraine upon signing the agreement on association and free trade.
This condition collided head-on with Russia’s interests in the area,
causing a situation about which Spanish Foreign Minister Garcia-Mar-
gallo38 has said, «The Ukrainian crisis is the most important, or one of
the most important, of the crises the European Union has undergone
since the fall of the Berlin .wall.» Regarding its position on the peace
process, the EU has supported the initiative of President Poroshenko,
based on the principle of respect for international legality and which
38
GARCIA-MARGALLO, José Manuel, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Spain, remarks be-
fore the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Congress of Deputies, July 31st, 2014.
29
backs the right of Ukraine to maintain its unity and territorial integrity
as well as to decide its destiny.
The EU has maintained from the beginning of the conflict the need for a
diplomatic solution and for this reason has tried to counter the strength
of the Russian initiatives by means of economic sanctions which have
gone from lesser to greater and have been approved in four phases. Of
special significance were those adopted in the third phase: the Official
Diary of the EU39 published a series of economic sanctions against Rus-
sia, taking effect on July 31st, and which envisage the prohibition of the
purchase or sale of bonds issued by Russian State banks.40 The package
also includes an embargo on the import and export of arms and military
materiel but only for «new contracts», thus excluding the two Mistral
airplane carriers built by France for Russia, the contract for which was
signed in 2010.
In the field of arms trade, the EU exports arms to Russia valued
at 300 million Euros a year, while Russian imports come to a total
of 3,200,000,000 Euros. The EU exports goods of dual use worth
20,000,000,000 Euros a year, destined for both military ends as well
as civilian use, but only those for final military use are sanctioned. It
must be kept in mind that the countries formerly members of the War-
saw Pact and which now are members of the EU, are equipped with
arms systems of Russian origin, and those materials require supplies
and spare parts which must be purchased from Russia. For this rea-
son, such transactions have been excluded from the European sanc-
tioning process against Russia.
On the other hand, the sanctions do include a prohibition against ex-
porting «certain equipment and technology related to energy which
will be governed by a previous authorization» on the part of the
member States. With this measure, they commit themselves to deny
export licenses for «new contracts» when these are related to «the
exploration and production of petroleum in deep waters and in shale
deposits, and petroleum exploration in the Arctic.» This measure is
of major economic impact, since the export of technology to Russia
for non-conventional gas and petroleum projects represents some
150 million Euros a year, although it should be remembered that gas
projects are excluded.
39
Official Diary of the EU, July 31st 2014, indicating that «The Council has adopted
restrictive measures by the EU in light of the actions by Russia which destabilize the
situation in the east of Ukraine. This decision legalizes the agreement reached by the
Committee of Permanent Representatives on Tuesday, July 29th», according to a state-
ment released by the EU.
40
During 2013, Russian banks with a majority of Russian State capital raised 7.5 mi-
llion Euros from the EU, of the 15.8 million in bonds issued by Russian public institutions.
30
Within this sphere, the European Commission has defended the lega-
lity of the package of economic sanctions that the EU has approved
against Russia in the sectors of finance, arms and sensitive techno-
logies for the petroleum sector. In its report, it emphasizes that all of
these are compatible with the World Trade Organization (WTO), with
the objective of avoiding the success of a possible Russian suit against
these measures.
Regarding the sectors affected by the sanctions, it is obvious that the EU
has tried to apply sanctions on those materials where Russia’s depen-
dence on Europe is much greater than the reverse. For this reason, the
gas sector has not been included in the sanctions, since the majority of
European nations depend on Russian gas; but in contrast, materials rela-
ted to petroleum exploitation have been included.
This whole package of sanctions has a validity of one year, although it
may be reviewed within a period of three months. After the cease-fire
agreement of September 5th, European authorities could re-think these
sanctions and remove them if the cease-fire holds. This relative laxity
in the application of the sanctions demonstrates once again that many
EU nations prioritize the safeguarding of their own interests above those
which are common to all. This circumstance, together with the lack of a
true Common Policy on Security and Defense and clear leadership, has
relegated the EU to a secondary role in a conflict at the doors of its own
territory.
And all of this is in spite of the fact that on July 7 th of 2014, the Eu-
ropean Parliament approved, by a vote of 497 in favor, 121 against
and 21 abstentions, a resolution soliciting the imposition by the EU
of an embargo on arms to Russia, and preparation of new sanctions
in the economic, financial and energy sectors, for destabilizing the
east of Ukraine, measures which were immediately contested by
Russia, which decreed a prohibition on the import of food products
coming from the EU countries applying the boycott. This has caused
problems in many sectors, including the Spanish fruit and vegetable
market.
Finally, and in the military sphere, on July 22nd 2014 the Ministers of
Foreign Affairs of the EU approved the establishment of a mission of
Security Sector Reform (SSR) at the petition of the Ukrainian authori-
ties. This mission, for an initial period of two years, falls within the fra-
mework of the Common Policy on Security and Defense, with the aim,
in the words of Catherine Ashton, «to contribute to the reinforcement
of the State of Law in Ukraine, in favor of all Ukrainian citizens throu-
ghout the country.» Its headquarters will be in Kiev, although with
representation in the different Ukrainian regions. The initial budget
will be of 2,680,000 Euros for the deployment phase of the mission,
31
with a termination deadline of 30th November of 2014. For their part,

Germany, Denmark and Poland41 announced an agreement to reinfor-
ce the preparation of the general multinational headquarters of the
Northeast created in 1999 in Szczecin, Poland, and have invited other
allies to participate.
The Atlantic Alliance
The Alliance has at no time considered military support to Ukraine,

since this country is not a member of NATO and as such, article 5 of
the Treaty of Washington is not applicable. In spite of this fact, neither
can the Alliance look the other way, as this would mean abandoning
Ukraine to its fate, at the same time giving wings to Russia so that she
may forcibly intervene in all the territories which once were a part of
the USSR. In the case of the Baltic countries, obviously the situation
is very different, for they are members of NATO, and as such, article 5
would be applied.
Within NATO, there is a widely divergent perception of the Ukrainian con-
flict among the 28 member countries. On the one hand, the Baltic coun-
tries and Poland, who perceive it as a true menace and consider that the
solution requires a combination of political, economic and military res-
ponses, including among them the deployment of forces on their territory;
on the other hand, the European countries of the South and West, which
consider that this conflict is a risk to European stability, but discard any
short-term military response; and finally, the U.S. position: she does not
wish to withdraw from leadership of the area, but neither is she disposed
to commit herself further than the Europeans themselves, from whom
she is requiring greater involvement. To this panorama may be added
other considerations, such as that of the German government, which does
not consider it advisable to increase the permanent military presence of
the Alliance in Eastern Europe and so attend to the petitions of Poland
and the Baltic counties.42
On June 6th of 2014, the Associate Secretary General of NATO, Alexander
Vershbow43, charged Russia with attempting «to recreate a sphere of in-
fluence» over the former Soviet Republics, upon limiting their sovereignty
after changing the borders «through the use of force» in Ukraine, following
her annexation of Crimea. During the Cold War, the USSR personified for
NATO the image of its enemy, to be kept at a certain distance through
a war of mutual dissuasion, both conventional and nuclear. Both bloc-
ks sought obsessively to ensure that their missile launchers provided
41
EUROPA PRESS News Agency report, June 3rd 2014, Brussels.
42
EFE News Agency report, July 29th 2014.
43
Europe Press Agency news report, June 6th 2014.
32
thrust over a long enough distance to ensure that they would have time to
launch theirs. That was dissuasion, which continues to be important for
Russia even though the Cold War has ended.
Therefore, it is not surprising that the Moscow government has as an ob-
jective of its National Security Strategy of 2010 preventing NATO from
arriving on its borders. This was demonstrated when the three Baltic
countries entered NATO, and now she seems unwilling to sit back and rest
in the face of the possible entrance of Ukraine into NATO. The North Atlan-
tic Council did invite Ukraine to form part of the Alliance, in response to
the Ukrainian government of Julia Timochenko, which provoked a protest
by Russia since she has always considered that extending the borders of
NATO to her territory was unacceptable.
At NATO headquarters, top authorities, civilian as well as military, have
commented on this conflict. Thus, the American General and SACEUR
Philip Breedlove,44 made it clear to the news agency STA, that NATO su-
pports dialogue and a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis, since
«the member countries of NATO have agreed that there will be no mi-
litary mission if Russia crosses the border with Ukraine.» For General
Breedlove, «the new challenge for NATO is how to adapt this Alliance,
which in the last 14 years has viewed Russia as a partner, to a situation
in which Russia no longer behaves like one, and resorts to a kind of
hybrid war.»
For his part, the Associate Secretary General of NATO, Alexander Ver-
shbow45 admitted on June 6th that this conflict has obliged the Allies
«to go back to the beginning» and concentrate more on the kind of
collective defense dealt with in Article 5 of the Treaty, providing mi-
litary reinforcement for a better dissuasion in the eastern European
countries. Finally, the Secretary General of NATO46 made it clear that
the Alliance would do more in the future to cooperate with Ukraine, al-
though requests for equipment, or aid with intelligence, are decisions
at a bilateral level: «There is a difference between being or not being a
member of NATO. Collective defense under Article 5 of the Treaty is only
applied to member nations.»
At the recent Wales Summit, held the 4th and 5th of September, NATO de-
nounced the new spheres of influence imposed by Russia. At this trans-
cendental meeting, NATO47 demonstrated its concern over the Russian
attitude on the Ukraine conflict, and made the decision to approve a rapid
44
TSA News Agency report through EFE News Agency June 9th, 2014, Zagreb
45
Europa Press News Agency report, June 6, 2014, Brussels
46
Statements by Anders Fogh-Rasmussen at the World Security Forum in Bratislavia
May 15th, 2014.
47
NATO: Statement at the Wales Summit held September 4 and 5, 2014. (paragraphs
5, 6, 7, and 8). Available at NATO.int.
33
response plan with a set of integrated measures. Among these, outstan-

ding was the creation of a new joint combined force capable of deploying
in a few days to respond to challenges, especially on the periphery of the
Alliance. This force should include ground, sea and air components, as
well as special forces. With it, NATO intends to provide a response to the
challenges, present and future, devised by Russia, as well as their politi-
cal implications.
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
This is the only international organization accepted by Russia as an in-

termediary in peace conversations, and they have acted as inspectors
in many areas, especially when dealing with affairs of a humanitarian
nature. Their participation in this crisis demonstrates once more that this
organization is the most ideal to carry out international arbitration.
The OSCE forms part of the so-called tripartite Contact Group (Ukraine,
Russia and the OSCE, as well as representatives of the separatists), and
designed a «road map» of its own in order to arrive at an agreement on
peace and stability. However, its role was limited to that of observer and
arbiter of the accords, but with no capacity for sanctioning those who fail
to comply with them.
All in all, and keeping in mind that Russia, as a permanent member, has
a veto on the Security Council, the OSCE is the only institution capable, as
an international organism, of acting to lead the peace process and provi-
de the necessary guarantees through its observers.
Conclusions and perspectives
The Ukraine crisis is conditioning the place Russia wishes to occupy in

the current world order, as well as its relations, both bilateral and multi-
lateral, with the West.
Undoubtedly, we have before us a new paradigm which will determine
the international strategic panorama, although we cannot foresee how
far-reaching the changes will be. Uncertainty, one of the principal charac-
teristics of the globalized world, also hovers over this conflict.
In this scenario, it is essential to achieve compatibility between the
Agreement on Association and Free Trade signed between Ukraine and
the European Union, with another similar one between Ukraine and the
Euroasiatic Union, as this could on the one hand strengthen the geopoli-
tical position of Ukraine and on the other, favor commercial agreements
between the EU and Russia, which now are seriously damaged, as is the
stability of Europe.
34
For the moment, Russia has clearly evinced her interest in recovering
her role as a world power and her irrevocable interest in the control of
the territory historically united to Russia, as is the case of Novorussia.
And with respect to the field of negotiation, it is as well to underline cer-
tain aspects with reference to the positions of the three principal actors
in the conflict: Ukraine, the pro-Russian insurgents and Russia. Althou-
gh the latter two act more or less in coordination, all cease-fire agree-
ments have always been established through conversations between
Ukraine and Russia, generally held in Byelorussia, with the support of
her President, Alexandre Lukashensko. Byelorussia is a Russian ally
and maintains good relations with Ukraine, but this does not mean that
it fails to watch with concern the Russian expansionist policy respecting
territories with Russian-speaking populations. It is also true that in the
conversations at the end of July, even the participation of the rebels was
dismissed, reinforcing even more the idea that Russia and Ukraine are
the true architects of a peaceful resolution to the conflict. In any case,
and with a prime mediator’s role, the Organization for Security and Coo-
peration in Europe (OSCE), plays an essential part in the supervision of
all agreements.
On the operative plane, and despite the fact that their units were com-
pleted by militiamen and security guards, the developments during mili-
tary operations exposed the operative deficiencies of the Ukranian Armed
Forces, but even more importantly, it laid bare the moral quandary for
national troops who must fight against their own fellow countrymen; cir-
cumstances which have marked the development of the conflict.
In addition, when the offensive of the Kiev forces seemed close to achie-
ving their victory and entering into Donetsk, Russia increased her aid to
the separatists, sending troops into Ukrainian territory, making it clear
that she would not permit their military defeat.
So far, all the circumstances and parameters, of widely differing nature,
conditioning the development of the conflict have herein been presented;
it only remains to reflect on its pacification and the return to a certain
normalcy, permitting the settlement of future relations between the two
countries.
In this context, the position that Ukraine adopts is fundamental, especially
with respect to the separatists who gave battle to the Kiev government,
with the unquestionable support of Russia.
All seems to indicate that President Poroshenko, in view of the way
a conflict which caused more than 2,50048 dead has evolved, is con-
Statements to the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay, on August
48
29th 2014. http://www.lavanguardia.com/internacional/20140829/54414108591/the-

U.N.-sets-figure-of-2,593-deaths-in-ukraine-conflict.html.
35
vinced that it is preferable to seek a negotiated agreement than a

military victory over the separatists, something which Moscow does
not appear to consider. For this reason, Kiev’s attitude respecting the
enemies of national unity has evolved: at the beginning, it characte-
rized them as terrorists, only to end by accepting the rebel leaders
as valid negotiating partners with no restrictions. In the agreement
signed with Putin last September, the conditions of the agreement
seem highly favorable to the separatists; for they stipulate the wi-
thdrawal of the Ukranian troops from Donetsk and Lugansk, without
demanding the disarming of the militia; which implies the loss of the
greater part of the national sovereignty of Kiev.
However, it remains to be seen what shape the future structure of
the Ukranian State will take, especially with regard to its degree of
decentralization, as well as the role to be played by the separatists
and Russia herself in the negotiation of a new State constitution. For
the moment, the Ukranian President has stated that self-government
will be granted for three years to Donetsk and Lugansk, as well as
the immediate celebration of regional elections. All these concessions
emphasize that the Ukranian President is seeking a peaceful and ne-
gotiated way out of the conflict, even at the risk of seeing the sepa-
ratists continue to increase their demands. Following three years of
self-government, without a guaranteed disarming of the rebels and
with the support of Russia, it would be unlikely for these regions to
accept a process of recentralization; on the contrary, they may try to
intensify the process of independence.
The European Union, for its part, should reflect, calmly and in depth,
on its performance in this crisis, and even more, on its future rela-
tions with Russia and Ukraine. Spanish Foreign Minister García-Mar-
gallo49 underlined the need «to decide whether we want Russia to be
a partner or a strategic adversary», the first of which would oblige
Russia to respect international legality and, in consequence, the te-
rritorial integrity of Ukraine. It is in the interests of the European
Union and of Russia itself to find a status which would permit un-
derstanding and the development of mutual confidence, and in order
to do so, Russia must avoid the temptation to embark on strategies
of recovery of the territories which made up the former USSR. In
the interest of all the parties concerned, Ukraine should be the last
example of any expansionist policy between Sovereign and indepen-
dent States, because the consequences, as in this case, are always
unforeseeable.
GARCIA-MARGALLO, Jose Manuel. Remarks before the Commission on Foreign

49
Affairs of the Congress of Deputies, July 31, 2014.
36
SOURCE: CIA The World FACTBOOK
37
38
39
Bibliography
BALLESTEROS, Miguel Ángel, The Importance of Leaders in the Ukraine cri-
sis. Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies, Madrid, 2014. Available on
the Web: http://www.ieee.es.
CIA The World FACTBOOK.
IISS Strategic Comments, Ukraine: risks to economic stabilization. Volume
20, Comment 20 - June 2014, London.
International Institute for Strategic Studies, e-News, August 2014.
News Agency EFE.
News Agency Europa Press.
News Agency Reuters.
40
Alqaeda and jihadism Chapter
two
Summary
Al Qaeda, a Salafist, jihadist organization, has experienced profound

deterioration due to the measures taken directly against it. As a conse-
quence, the group has gradually been diluted until becoming a nebula of
jihadist groups, with a franchised system, where individuals carry on un-
coordinated actions of dubious military usefulness. Still, its success has
been in being able to survive at all, and in becoming a brand, a symbol, of
a leaderless jihad.
Key words
Al-Qaeda, Salafism, jihadism, terrorism, insurgency.
41
Alqaeda and jihadism
Introduction
The West is an indefinite geographic place, and Islam a religion. The two
have now met on a sea too wide to unite them, but not wide enough to
separate them, thus breaking down an age-old situation of mutual dis-
regard. The first shock took place halfway through the 19th century with
the trauma of colonization; and the second, no less important, halfway
through the 20th century, when decolonization confronted both parties
with their own lack of preparation. The third, even more acute, was provi-
ded by the mass communication media, which transformed the encoun-
ter of different societies into a clash without mediators, between homes
equipped with significantly dissimilar economic capacities, with all the
resulting feelings of grievance and injustice.
The world has folded upon itself. Globalization has been the great pheno-
menon of the turn of the century; it entails a growing speed of contacts
between North and South, but also between East and West, blurring dis-
tances and eliminating processes and transition phases, a fact that mag-
nifies differences and makes them more blatant.
It reproduces thus an encounter that follows Hegelian dynamics -thesis,
antithesis, synthesis- whose acceleration triggers a kinetic collision, or
perhaps something felt to be like it. It must be absolutely clear that globa-
lization is not by any means a peaceful phenomenon, but rather the oppo-
site. It represents a process of rationalization exercised on the strongest
culture, together with many other sub-processes of the same nature, and
the elimination of the culturally weakest.
In this sense, Al Qaeda is branded as one of the leaders of a reactionary
movement (antithesis), opposing not only Western culture but mainly,
other and different Islamic varieties of the same creed that serves it as
inspiration. The East-West encounter has been decisive for its creation.
All of this is the natural result of the diversity of a religion practiced by a
number of people that ranges between 1,200 and 1,500 million, together
with a local culture, and a lack of both hierarchy and doctrinal unity; glo-
balization has made tangible the differences existing among the Islam
practiced by the various Muslim communities.
The fact is that Islam is diverse (ijtilaf), not only due to the existence of
different legitimate approaches to religious belief, but also through the
preponderance of preaching (dawa) over doctrine, which provides it with
a considerable capacity of adaptation that explains its extraordinary
dissemination.
Therefore, the approach, the analysis of the process, must be done bea-
ring in mind two basic considerations. The first is that, notwithstanding
43
the fact that references can have a theological nature, or be presented as

such, the keys of the proposal, its goals, are inherently political.
The second consideration is that global terrorism as such cannot really
exist, given that, as a fiction of power (the same as power itself), it de-
mands a framework for its projection; and global space is not constituted,
because globalization has not concluded. In practical terms, global terro-
rism cannot exist, since thus far a genuine global agenda is not feasible,
due to the fact that global space is not sufficiently integrated, and still
less is it structured.
What is viable, however, is a terrorism of local dimension, coordinated to
obtain a synergistic effect at a global level, and consequently, submitted
to strong centrifugal and centripetal tensions resulting from divergent
interests, not only at a local level, but also globally.
Historical background
Modern Salafism was born in the sixties in Saudi Arabia under the tu-
telage of its leaders as an instrument for the fight against Nasserism
and Arabic socialism; many Islamic scholars from neighboring countries,
sheltered in Saudi Arabia, became integrated in it. The fusion of their
thinking with Wahhabism created a powerful catalyst that revitalized and
invigorated groups which, later on, would acquire life of their own and
become difficult to control.1
This way, Saudi leaders tried to influence and manage the Muslim world
through the role of their country as site of the Muslim holy places, and
also simultaneously, to gain legitimacy before their people presenting
themselves as champions of Islam. By doing so, they solved at the same
time geo-political and legitimacy problems, even at the expense of put-
ting great stress on the political movement they had created by placing
it in a permanent dilemma between submitting to power or becoming
Islam’s vanguard; a challenge overcome by no few of them.
The invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 caused a nine-year conflict which
coincided in time with the peace agreements between Israel and Egypt,
the Islamic Revolution in Shiite Iran, and the Iran-Iraq war. That is to say,
it happened in a period of great upheaval and geo-political realignment
in the Middle East.
In this context, one of the first to use the term salafist jihadism to speak
about himself and his own ideas was Abu Muhammad Al Maqdisi who,
Meijer, Roel (Coord). Globalsalafism. Hurst and Company, London, 2009.

1
44
in 1984, during his stay in Afghanistan, published his work «Abraham’s

Community» («Millet Ibrahim»), in which he advocates a more radical and
intransigent Islam and incorporates internationalist and anti-Western
elements.
The word Al Qaeda, inscribed in the Salafist tendency, has an unclear ori-
gin; it seems to stem from the term «qafayn-dal» which refers to a base
or foundation that would be used by Arabic jihadists to fight against the
Soviets. For other authors, however, incidentally or not, it refers to a file
or data base of financial or jihadist operations used by Ben Laden during
the Soviet conflict.
When the Soviet conflict ended, the organization did not demobilize,
but stayed in that area to support the Taliban in the scenario of inner
turmoil that followed Soviet defeat. What is clearer is that the first
references to this term only date back to 1988, and even more clearly
from 1996 onward. Hence, Al Qaeda would have been born in Pakis-
tan (Peshawar) sometime between 1988 and 1996 as a network of
networks.
It would probably have been an evolution of the organization «Mak-
tab-al-Jidmat» (MAK), established by the Palestinian Abdullah Yusuff Az-
zam, at that time Professor at the University of Jeddah as promoter of
an idea of global jihad that was capable of mobilizing more than 20,000
volunteers from some twenty countries. All these activities were initially
carried out with direct support from the Pakistani services and direct or
indirect support from North American services.2
At the beginning of the 1980s, Ben Laden would join, providing the move-
ment with financial and political support. Furthermore, after the assassi-
nation of Azzam, in circumstances still murky and attributed by some to
Ben Laden himself, he would take control and modify its political course;
the ideological void resulting from the death of its first leader would be
filled by Ayman al-Zawahiri, who made a clear commitment to the jihadist
Salafist line of thought.3
In 1991, Ben Laden distanced himself definitively from the Saudi mo-
narchy after the permission given for the deployment of North American
troops in the country, in the context of the First Gulf Conflict, basing his
stance on a famous fatwa by Abdul Aziz bin Abdullah bin Baz (a notable
Salafist conservative mullah who would be named in 1992 Great Mufti,
interpreter of the law, of Saudi Arabia). Ben Laden accused the regime of
turning the country into a North American colony.
2
Umbreen, Javaid and Nighat, Noureen. «An Insight into the Philosophical Dynamics
of AlQaeda». Journal of Political Studies 2002, Vol. 20, Issue 2, 2013, 201—218.
3
Ibid.
45
In 1994, after losing his Saudi nationality, Ben Laden took refuge in Sudan, and
in 19954 he would be blamed for a terrorist attack in his homeland that would
bring him media attention. In 1996, he was forced to leave the country and sett-
led down in Afghanistan, where the Taliban had taken over power. On 7 August
1998, the terrorist attacks against the North American Embassies in Tanzania
and Kenya took place, resulting in more than two hundred dead and four thou-
sand wounded, placing the organization at the forefront of media attention.
AlQaeda’s commitment in Afghanistan provoked multiple doctrinal pro-
blems, due to the peculiar Taliban interpretation of Islam that hindered
the organization’s aim for purity. All these barriers were overcome, in
the opinion of as relevant a figure as Mustafa Setmarian, for the sake of
operational effectiveness.
AlQaeda’s terrorist activities have developed under a pattern in which
every wave is followed by a withdrawal, as fitting with a conflict’s dialec-
tical nature. Those waves, it is true, have shortened their cycle, increasing
thus their recurrence.
The first would span the period from its creation until the conquering of
Afghanistan, its peak being the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The second wave
was linked to the invasion of Iraq in 2003, its high point having been the
terrible attacks in Madrid and London, ending in Iraq between 2007 and
2008; a wave with a more diffuse organization, as a consequence of the
measures taken by the West, and which leaves action partly up to indi-
vidual initiative. A third wave, in Seth Jones opinion5, would have begun
with an uprising in the Arabian peninsula and ended with Ben Laden’s
death, being characterized, according to Sageman, by a considerable
growth in the number of independent cells of terrorists by imitation, ope-
rating outside terrorist training infrastructures.
In any case, the 9/11 attacks placed AlQaeda in the forefront of attention
around the world, achieving global visibility and turning the organization into
an attraction for many people discontent with the current state of affairs,
especially in the Muslim world, providing the organization with a relevan-
ce not in accord with its real military capabilities. It would provide an outlet
channeling the frustration and hate of significant sectors of the population.
Its actions made its political goals seem viable, and consequently, it was in-
terpreted as a danger for the West, which increased its military budget.
However, its presence had been concentrated and consolidated consi-
derably in Afghanistan, making the organization tangible. It had become
strong, perhaps too strong, offering thus a target to attack.
4
A car bomb exploded in a Saudi National Guard training center in Riyadh killing six
people, four of them Americans, and wounding sixty.
5
Jones, Seth., «A Persistent Threat: The Evolution of al Qa’ida and Other Salafi Jiha-
dists.» RAND Corporation working paper 2014.
46
The Madrid and London terrorist attacks, as important as they were, did
not manage to reach the global relevance that 9/11 did, and as a result,
the organization gradually lost initiative and visibility; the world stock ex-
change indexes fell for years after the attacks in the USA, several months
after the tragedy in Madrid and only days after London; the markets, sin-
ce then and generally speaking, pay little attention to its actions. In fact,
since then it hasn’t been able successfully to carry out any other attack of
such magnitude in the West. And the attempts to force a civil war in Iraq
between Sunnis and Shiites, to benefit from the chaos the conflict would
bring to the organization, became a source of serious questioning as well
as a political encumbrance that caused their rejection by that same popu-
lation they had gone there to support.
In any case, Ben Laden’s death in 2011 was the nadir of its decline, as a
result, to a considerable extent, of the confrontation with the West. The
organization fragmented, not only in response to the pressure of the in-
ternational community, but also from the need to adapt to the diverse
scenarios in which it operates, from the dissimilarity in goals, and even
from the necessity to satisfy individualist leaderships (witness the cases
of Abu Bakr Al Bagdhadi, and of the ISIS).
Religious Foundations
Doctrine is a key element in any terrorist organization, because it provi-

des definition and justification. Using Robespierre’s famous words, it is
the quality without which terror would make no sense. As a matter of fact,
the lack of a sound doctrine was identified in the 1980s and 1990s as a
factor of weakness in AlQaeda.
Jenkins declared that terrorists want many people watching but not
too many people dead. He would later redefine this theory to fit an or-
ganization such as AlQaeda, whose actions seem to aim at both things
simultaneously.
There is one subject of prime importance, simple but essential: AlQaeda
is a Sunni, jihadist Salafist organization, but that does not make all other
organizations of this nature a part of AlQaeda, no matter how much they
empathize with it.
This said, we must emphasize the closeness of AlQaeda to Salafism and,
more specifically, to what has come to be called jihadist Salafism, un-
derstanding by such its predilection for armed struggle more than purely
religious preaching. But as we will see, neither does this make every Sa-
lafist a jihadist.
The fact is that, due to its origins, Salafism is not a single movement,
but a nebula of movements, one of those which occasionally arise, and
47
into which AlQaeda conveniently settles. Furthermore, it usually happens

that religious language is used to make political proposals that cannot
be questioned; even more, the rhetoric of violent groups has been able
to make a long philosophical tradition its own through simple messages.
In this sense, Salafist language is a political one, whose simplicity repre-
sents a genuine rebuttal of globalization.6
The word Salafism--an idea born almost at the same time as Islam--, co-
mes from the term Salaf al-Salif, the Pious Ancestors, which refers to the
Rashidun, the four Perfect Caliphs, successors of the Prophet (Abu Bakr,
Omar, Utmán, and Ali), and in more general terms, to the three genera-
tions they belong to, considered more perfect for their proximity to the
Prophet and whose conduct Moslems attempt to imitate.
According to Wiktorowics7, Salafists can be classified into three large
groups: scholars, politicians, and jihadists, united by a common creed and
separated by the interpretation of the world where they have to operate.
And since there are common goals among the different Salafist groups,
the problem then lies in the means to be applied in each case.
Thus Salafism is not a group, but a combination of groups that breaks
down as a consequence of internal debate centered on two ideas: violen-
ce and the relationship with political power. Therefore, if on one side it
represents passivity, clarity and universality, on the other, it also entails
activism, rigidity, fragmentation, political dissolution, and localism.
Scholarly Salafism (salafiyya al ilmiyya) advocates resignation facing an
imperfect power, as long as this remains within tolerable limits. All this
leads to an apolitical stance and to activities centered on the reform of
traditions, which is why radicals call them contemptuously «ulemas for
menstruation and the complications of childbirth.» Political Salafism incor-
porates hybrid formulas to the extent that it combines the Salafist creed
and the political practices of the Moslem Brotherhood, who are conside-
red as innovators, and weak in doctrinal matters, something very negati-
ve in Islam. Nevertheless, their conduct is very similar to the one shown
by political parties of the traditional Islamic sort. The salafiya yihadiya
promotes rebellion and its actions combine theological with operational
factors, purism with pragmatism.
Salafist jihadism gives violence a doctrinal basis and procures a link with
religious belief. There are authors who identify three branches that con-
tribute to the configuration of Salafi jihadist thought: the first is based
on Egyptian radical fundamentalist thinking (Qutb, Fadl). Another branch
is neo-Wahabbist, nourished by scholars from Saudi Arabia who would
6
Meijer, Roel, Op.Cit. p. 286.
7
Wiktorowics, Quintan, «Anatomy of the Salafi Movement,» Studies in conflicts and
terrorism, num. 29 no. 3 (April-May 2006).
48
include Ibn Baz and his followers, creators of the al Shawa movement
(who in 1979 took over the mosque in Mecca). A third branch would be the
Palestinian, with Abdala Azzam, Omar Abu Qatada and Aby Muhammad
al-Maqdisi.8
Conceptually, and quoting al-Suri, AlQaeda contains fundamentalist ele-
ments, outstanding among which are Mawdudi’s hakimiyya (God’s sove-
reignty in every aspect of life), and elements from the legal and political
doctrine of Salafism of Ibn Taymiyya, specifically the principle of al-wala
wa al-bara, which will be mentioned again below; some elements of the
political and judicial traditions of Wahabbism and the ideas proper to the
Moslem Brotherhood might also be added.9
Al-Maqdisi, another ideologist in the group, would contribute the con-
cept of tawhid (the unity, the confluence of everything around God) to
the idea of yihad takfiri (takfir is excommunication; the name takfiri is
rejected by these groups, since its meaning, «the excommunicators»,
has a mocking tone). As a consequence, Takfirism has broadened its
limits to reach not only infidels of all kinds (including Christians and
Jews, usually excluded) but, furthermore, all those Muslims who fail
to follow their doctrine. Abu Qatada al-Filistini goes beyond that and
subordinates preaching and political action to a jihad addressed first
against the closest enemy. And it goes even further in its contempt for
human reason. Salafism is faith-based10, in the sense that it places faith
above reason and even above reality.
In fact, all that violence increases through the autonomy that its agents
enjoy, and the initiative obtained as a result of applying the principle that
«the mujaheddin on the ground knows best how to act», which is a transpo-
sition of the idea that Allah knows best and grants religious legitimacy to
the operational level.
Salafism strives to purify (tasfiyya) and standardize doctrine (which is
contrary to the traditional theory of diversity, the ijtilaf, and as such, holds
great potential for conflict within Islam), which obviously will have its re-
flection in the first steps for the construction of an envisioned Islamic
State; it condemns the practice of an Islam which it holds to be Westerni-
zed and rational, while considering any movements of renewal as doctri-
8
Meijer,Roel, Op.Cit.
9
Bryanjar, Lia. «Destructive Doctrinarians» in Meijer, Roel. Globalsalafism. Hurst &
Company, London, 2009, p. 286.
10
Facts are accepted without seeking explanations, nor attempting to rationalize
them. It is not possible to approach God through reason, but through faith; reason is
taken to be inessential if not irrelevant. It is the «Credo quia absurdum» of Tertulian
which would be recovered by Al-Ghazali who in his work «Talafut al-falasfa» («The in-
coherence of the philosophers») emphasizes that reason must yield before Revelation
(«bi la keif», as it stands).
49
nally weak, and formalist in their emphasis on practice at the expense of

their calling for doctrinal purity.
It promotes the inclusion of the rules in their entirety, since Sharia does
not depend on society. Therefore, to reject one part of it is to reject it all.
This is nothing less than apostasy, the worst crime a Muslim can commit.
Islam is only fully possible if the state applies Sharia entirely, as otherwi-
se, what exists is yahiliyya (the earlier polytheistic state, existing before
Islam arrived).
The feeling of belonging to a community is the central axis of its discour-
se, an inside-outside separation: «believers are friends of each other, they
order what is established and forbid what is reprehensible» (9,71). The doc-
trine al-wala wal-bara, which divides the world between believers and
non-believers, between good and evil, establishing links of brotherhood
on one side and separation on the other, brings with itself sectarianism,
even among Moslems themselves. This idea is reinforced by the concept
of Hisba, based on the Koranic verse «you are the best community man has
ever had, you promote the good, forbid the evil, and believe in God» (3,110).
This had been traditionally delegated on an authority, the mutashib. And
as the hadiz says, it is per se a call to action: «if one of you sees something
illicit, he should stop it with his hand; if he cannot, then with his tongue,
and if not, with his heart, and this is the weakest level of Faith (Iman)».11
Authorities traditionally acted with «the hand», the wise men (alim) with
the word and the people with their hearts. Revolutionary action consists
in handing authority over to the common people and fragmenting it (in
the sense proposed by Foucault, and that Sageman would take up again
when speaking of «a leaderless jihad»), and this would result in highly
revolutionary potential.
However, its purism has not been able to elude the debates of today and
has been in fact sequestered by other struggles: anti-imperialism, secta-
rianism, identity politics. Thus, jihadist Salafism has gradually distanced
itself from 19th century Salafism, taking over its terminology and combi-
ning a stark analysis of reality with revolutionary activism and Western
ideas and strategies.12 This is to say that jihadists become Westernized
when fighting the West, and the war ends up becoming a space for ex-
change, encounters, and knowledge of each other.
While Salafism rejects reality in the name of purity, jihadist Salafism stri-
ves to change it, turning the creed (‘aqida) into whatever is necessary, until
11
An Nawawi. The most select of the Garden of the Just. Moslem Community of Spain,
Motril 2005, p. 98.
12
Caestien Maestro, Ignacio. «Salafist Currents:religious puritanism, proselytism and
militance» in Strategy Notebook 163. Islamisms in evolution. Spanish Institute for Stra-
tegic Studies, 2013.
50
it fits completely with the concept of jihad according to Taqi ad-Din Ahmed
Ibn Taymiyya; and even more, it incorporates fundamentalist thinkers, as
we have seen, with the goal of putting down roots and benefitting from
the most traditional Islamic thinking.
Salafists consider themselves to be simply Muslims who fulfill their duty.
Salafism excludes not only differences, but also the different, including
non-Salafist Moslems, and them, especially. This would only validate
Freud’s theory that big conflicts are not caused by big differences but by
small ones: they are not so much interreligious as intra-religious. This
would explain the great number of Muslim casualties.
Theologically, they justify their behavior appealing to a defensive jihad,
which implies an individual obligation for all Moslems. The appeal of ra-
dicals to the faith of the faithful and to their commitments is the most
compulsive of their arguments, especially if it is to have an impact on a
society that calls for activism.
One of the most outstanding features of Salafism is its anti-Shiism, of
Wahabbi roots. In fact, an intellectual debate has existed in AlQaeda on
this point between two groups: one formed by Abu Muhammad al-Maqdi-
si and Abu Baseir al-Tartusi, as against al-Zarqawi’s doctrine in favor of
a limitless violence against them. This theory seems to have prospered
in its time, but currently it has been reconsidered by some in the central
authority. Nevertheless, in its famous letter, AlQaeda pronounces itself
openly against Shiism.
Thus, Sunnis accuse Shiites of being heretical, because they believe that
Ali enjoys a divine status. Furthermore, the doctrine of the infallibility of
the Imams places them, they believe, at the same level as the Prophet
Muhammad, to the point where his character as the seal of the prophets
is questioned; Shiism, for Wahabbis, presents the Koran as imperfect, be-
cause it can only be correctly interpreted by Imams. Among this group’s
most popular beliefs, one which stands out, is the belief that it is illicit
for Shiites to kill Sunnis,13 while accusing them of being the fifth column
for the West in the Islamic world and remembering, opportunistically,
such events as the support they provided to the Mongols for the razing
of Baghdad.
What is more, the rejection by the Shi’ites of the succession to the Prophet
(they considered Ali should have been the successor), is a death blow
for the doctrine of Salafism, which sees the basis of its religious pre-
cepts questioned: the Haddissids, due to the fact that their transmitters
(the rest of the Rachidun and their entourage) at the time acted dislo-
yally regarding the Prophet’s legitimate successor (the Imam Ali), are
consequently disqualified, as is their testimony, and this challenges the
BAR. M, Samuel. «Sunnis and Shiites-Between Rapprochement and Conflict».

13
51
fundamental Salafist credo, established and handed down, regarding the

generations closest to the Prophet.
Javier Jordán,14 echoing the debate between Bruce Hoffman and Marc Sa-
geman about the importance of central Al Qaeda headquarters on the di-
rect and effective control of terrorist actions in the West, uses the analy-
sis of 85 terrorist incidents to simultaneously prove both experts correct.
It would depend on which dimension of the phenomenon gets more at-
tention (the central body or independent cells), because their approaches
are complementary and show the organization’s capacity for adaptation,
survival, and regeneration.
His conclusion is that we are facing a dynamic phenomenon led by an
organization that has suffered a severe erosion. AlQaeda and the Nor-
th-African organizations that share its precepts have lost strength, but
at the same time the surge of new players, operating autonomously or
together with Al Qaeda, contribute to the fact that the terrorist threat is
very much alive.
Conflict zones, and especially, to date, the AFPAK, have proven to be exce-
llent training grounds, which shows the relevance of large organizations
in the global scenario and their preponderance over a leaderless jihad,
so that their decline would also signal the decline of the jihadist pheno-
menon itself.
Therefore, it would be of interest to perform a double analysis: first at a
global, and then at a local scale.
Global Approach to Local Terrorism. Al Qaeda as an Organization
An analysis of Al Qaeda´s activity would be impossible without unders-

tanding this group structurally, in spite of all the problems and disinfor-
mation generated by the inherent secrecy of the terrorist group.
In this sense, Sageman15 talks about a leaderless jihad in which the per-
sonal ties prevail over any formal structure, popularizing the «bunch of
guys» concept used when referring to informal groups which, after cons-
tituting themselves, carry out attacks inspired by the guidelines coming
from the central nucleus, which in most cases (though not in all), lacks
operative control over them.
14
Jordán, Javier. »An empirical contribution to the theoretical debate on the organiza-
tional nature of jihadist terrorism in Western Europe.» Spanish Political Science Review.
Nº 28, March 2012, pp. 87-106.
15
Sageman, Marc. Leaderless Jihad. University of Pennsylvania, 2007.
52
After 9/11, Al Qaeda has experienced a noticeable reduction in its com-

mand and control structures, due to the deterioration caused by military
interaction. This has resulted in levels of decentralization which make
the coordination of the network difficult, seriously affects its operational
capacity, and constitutes a real strategic weakness, as the conflicts be-
tween the various branches of the organization in Syria show.
Circumstances have transformed Al Qaeda from a hierarchic organiza-
tion to a polymorphic hybrid in the middle of a semi-franchised nebula. It
is, then, a very diverse and heterogeneous group whose concerted action
is presumably complicated and difficult.
As aforementioned, the central nucleus stands greatly weakened and its
operational capacities constrained as a result of direct military action
against them; it is included in the AFPAK and moves in the mythical Jura-
san region. This nucleus would shine a light, through grandiose speeches
and major terrorist attacks, on the path to follow, performing the function
of caliphs for the whole system, but showing as well weak coordination.
To all this we should add a group of organizations that have sworn fi-
delity (the traditional Islamic formula of bei’a) to their leader, located in
Syria (Jabhat al-Nusrah, with links as from 2012), Somalia (al Shabaab,
whose links date back to 2012), Yemen (Al Qaeda in the Arabic Peninsula,
established in 2009), and North Africa (Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb,
with ties dating back to 2006). Regarding their activity, between 2007 and
2013, ISIS (linked with Al Qaeda until 2014) represents 43%, al Shabaab
25%, Jabhat al Nusrah 21%, and AQPA 10%.
Reference must also be made to a panoply of organizations who, without
having established formal ties, work in the same direction, although they
may disagree on methodology and leadership; this arrangement lets
them pursue their own goals and act jointly in those fields in which their
interests converge. They range from Boko Haram in Subsaharan Africa to
Imarat Kavkaz in the Caucasus, to the Uzbek IMU, Harakat Ansar, and the
battalions of Ziyad al-Jarrat.
In this way, Al Qaeda is attempting to achieve a «global» caliphate that in
reality incorporates all Muslims and the lands they once occupied, while
other groups try to achieve the same goal in specific geographical areas
or regions, as a prior step in the direction Al Qaeda has pointed out, the
general tendency of the different movements being to establish borders
coinciding with the corresponding territorial demarcation of their nations.
For example, ISIS’s goal is to destroy the borders fixed by the Sykes-Pi-
cot agreements that defined the current territorial configuration of the
Middle East. The actual differences between groups, as indicted above,
are not religious but political, oriented around the means and strategies
to be used to carry out their actions: the location and dimensions of the
caliphate, its global or non-global nature, the degree of priority to be gi-
53
ven to actions against the West, the policy towards the Shiites, Marabouts
and Sufis, and the level of strictness to be used in applying Islamic law in
those areas under their authority.
Finally, a number of individual players and inspirational networks should
be added to this group, who represent a strategy of doubtful political and
military utility but very profitable media-wise.
In fact, it should be noted that the process of dissolution has ended by
making the franchises more visible than the central body, and has buried
the organization in a mire of jihadist organizations that, without being as
visible as, and having the past of the original group, try to benefit by so-
mehow establishing ties with it. AlQaeda would therefore serve as a sym-
bol, an icon to which all of them turn, and its victory (such as Bin Laden
simply hiding for 10 years) would be the simple fact of having resisted;
and that is no small feat.16
Local Approach to Global Terrorism. The Franchise System and its

Inspiration
In this field, Al Qaeda’s principal accomplishment would have been the

ability to popularize the use of the word «jihadist», which serves as a
family name and common denominator for a number of different local
movements, giving them a certain essential structure and generating sy-
nergies at a global level. A new word attempts to describe an equally new
phenomenon.
The goal has been a call for the generalization of this type of movement
that, according to Seth Jones, went from 3 in 1988 to 31 in 2010, and 49
in 2013, after the «Arab Springs». This implies a sort of «alqaedism»17
built from a system that ties franchising to legitimization to the mutual
benefit of both. The number of activists underwent an equally significant
increase.
In fact, between 2010 and 2013, the number of groups has grown by 58%,
especially in the Middle East and North Africa -- and more so in Libya
(transformed into a sort of sanctuary after the fall of Ghaddafi), Egypt (in
the Sinai region) and the Sahel territory made up of Algeria, Libya, Mali,
Nigeria, and Mauritania.
In 2013, half of the world´s jihadists were to be found in the Syrian con-
flict, and they carried out around two thirds of their global actions: Jabhat
16
Velasco Tuduri, Santiago. AlQaeda. Origin, Evolution and its presence in the world
today» in Strategy Notebook 163. Islamisms in Revolution. Spanish Institute for Strate-
gic Studies, 2013.
17
Bergen, Peter; Hoffman, Bruce; Haley, Michael. Jihadist Terrorism: A threat assess-
ment.» Bipartisan Center, September 2013.
54
al-Nusrah (2,000 - 6,000), ISIS (1,000 - 5,000), Suqour al-Sham (2,000 -

5,000), Ahrar al-Sham (10,000 - 15,000), Liwa al-Islam (5,000 - 10,000),
and Liwa al-Tawhid (5,000 - 10,000).18
The reasons for this extraordinary diffusion are to be found, firstly, in the
ability to take over local conflicts by transforming their key arguments
into jihadist parameters, which at the same time has enabled the making
of synergetic coordination. However, such changes have not managed to
solve those conflicts, since they are not fictions or inventions, but very
real conflicts.
To this must be added the turbulent scenario which appeared in the Isla-
mic world after the so called «Arab Springs», which have generated great
turmoil in the area, weakened the State even further, and increased so-
cial volatility; there are more than a few Muslim societies that find them-
selves splintered as a consequence of their partial transformation upon
interacting with the West. This fracturing appears mainly between the
middle and upper classes that are closest to the West, the urban working
class, and the traditional rural societies. Furthermore, regional conflicts
(Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria...) have contributed to the military training
of fanatics, while events such as Mursi’s fall may have generated a wave
of disappointment among Islamists whose goal was to achieve power by
democratic means. This is, according to Giles Kepel, re-Islamization from
the bottom up. The sectarian conflict between Shiites and Sunnis in Syria
and Iraq is a new call made, it is true, in a different key.
In any case, the truth is that the presence of Al Qaeda and its affiliates has
passed from eight theaters of operation in 2008 to 16 nowadays, some being
a continuation of the former process, some new, others the consequence of a
certain resurgence, others of expansion. The result is that Al Qaeda, its affi-
liates and related groups can be found in the South of Asia, South-East Asia,
Afghanistan-Pakistan, Algeria, Indonesia, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Mali, Maurita-
nia, Niger-Nigeria, the Philippines, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunis, and Yemen.19
Still, and in spite of this expansion process and the serious effort carried
out in this field (Ben Laden himself20 believed that 90% of preparation for
battle was related to communication), it is true that the organization’s
levels of acceptance in the Islamic world have fallen noticeably, as a con-
sequence not only of its prolonged use of violence but of its inability to
solve the conflicts it chooses to get involved in.
Proof of its efforts and dynamic character are jihadist electronic publi-
cations like «Inspire», a magazine with an attractive layout and a good
18
Jones, Seth. Op. Cit.
19
Bergen et. al. Op. Cit.
20
Ben Laden, Osama, in Lawrence, Bruce. Messages to the world. Foca Editions, Ma-
drid 2007.
55
readership in the radical community, combining narrative, tactics and po-

litics. This way it spreads political orientation, makes an approximation to
reality and justifies its acts, spreading at the same time homemade terro-
rist techniques, so «giving weapons to the people» and promoting anarchy.
However, AlQaeda’s propaganda apparatus, As-Sahab, has seen its in-
fluence wane, in spite of its efforts, because its subsidiaries have crea-
ted their own communication channels and their spokesmen have been
eliminated.
According to reports from the 2012 Pew Research Center’s Global Atti-
tudes Project, popular support for movements such as the Taliban, the
Haqqani network or Laskar-e-Taiyba among the Pakistani population has
fallen to levels lower than 22%; even more, it has a negative evaluation
for more than 50% in the case of AlQaeda and Tehreek-e-Taliban for Pa-
kistanis (Afghan Taliban are negatively seen by 45% of the population and
Laskar-e-Taiyba by 37%); the criticism is even harsher among those who
declare themselves strict Moslems . These parameters reproduce them-
selves in other scenarios. It is not a trivial question, but it is a key issue,
because the Moslem population is precisely the goal and objective of the
struggle.
The cause can be found in the jihadist organizations’ lack of adaptation
to the social and cultural framework within which they operate, and their
inability to bring about its true transformation in terms appropriate to the
Islam they advocate. Local populations do not feel satisfied by the prea-
ching of Salafists, feeling that the Islam the Salafists actually practice
is not the real one; and the organization’s narrow-mindedness in ma-
king concessions that could help to achieve cohesion and cultural affinity,
bringing different movements together in a single body, does not preci-
sely help.
All this, together with their aforementioned incapacity to solve the con-
flict they benefit from21 explains the geographic encapsulation, the isola-
tion they experience, in spite of the initial expectations which arise in lo-
cal populations upon their deployment. In the case of Bosnia in the 1990s,
Giles Kepel had already pointed out how, because of the lack of cultural
affinity, the goal of taking over the conflict had not been achieved, and he
predicted, for the long term, the same results in future scenarios.
Not dealing with the real causes, but only transforming them, makes suc-
cess empty of meaning, because the problems persist, with the resulting
weariness of the native population. The franchising system has succee-
ded partly in mitigating this problem, by adapting to the framework in
which they operate, but the local-global synergistic fit is far from being
accomplished in spite of a certain alignment having been achieved.
Castien Maestro, Ignacio. Op. Cit.

21
56
AlQaeda in the Arabian Peninsula may have learned from the mistakes
made in the past by other affiliates providing services (as done by other re-
ligious groups without links with AlQaeda, like Hitzbula, as a way of earning
legitimacy) to the Yemeni population, even changing its name (and acting as
«Ansar al Sharia») to show their attachment to Islamic law. It all belongs to
the logic of adaptation to the environment which is typical of the war.
The media impact brought about by the so-called individual actors (lone
wolves) adds in this context a bonus of visibility that benefits the group as
a whole and gives its fighters a glimmer of hope. In the end, as Clausewitz
reminds us, war is an activity of the spirit.
Examining the phenomenon of individual actors
People do not become radical by themselves. It is seldom that the so-ca-

lled «lone wolf» appears as an isolated factor, independent of a social
collective or a support group; and when one does, it is usually a case of
a psychopath. The narratives, in this case Salafist, are essential in the
process of radicalization, since they are the axis of disagreement, around
which the radicalized group structures itself.
Such groups don’t necessarily practice violence or support it for that mat-
ter, but they incorporate a contradiction to the extent that they approve and
sympathize with it. Some subgroups with a strong ideological component
and with their own dynamics split from them and enter into an extremist,
almost schizoid spiral, in their demand for purity: they are the radicals.
But that doesn’t make the radicals terrorists either. They support violence,
and can carry out some illegal acts, but do not necessarily practice it. It is
the next qualitative leap forward, momentous and transcendental, unfor-
ced, resulting from a continuous development, which transforms them into
terrorists, usually under the guidance of those who have already spilled
blood, that is to say, entities belonging to the local franchise.
The problem in fighting radical groups is that they are constituted around mo-
ral imperatives. And in the West, morality is a space in which the state has
no jurisdiction as long as moral rules do not materialize in the form of illegal
activity. Therefore, repression has to be limited, it neither should nor can be
preemptive. Even more so, these groups can carry on a life totally independent
of the state they belong to, for they abide by its laws; the problem is that their
moral demands separate them from the society which has received them.
We can infer from all this that the operational approach against this kind
of terrorist should be to act against the whole group and not only with po-
lice and repressive measures (although these also), but at a pedagogical
level as well, oriented towards putting an end to the narrative that legiti-
mizes it. It is easier, and statistically more effective, to reduce the size of
potential groups than to go after individuals who are already radicalized.
57
The local-global link means that the Umma, the great imaginary space of
universal confines, is constructed from the mosque, on the basis of rejec-
tion of any Western values; but it is also possible within the framework of
the net’s virtual space. Internet has made possible the emergence of an
Islamic space that fits in with the deterritorialized nature of their political
aspirations and permits fusion of souls, fragmentation, interchange, bra-
instorming and indoctrination.
It is all about taking the fight to the West’s own terrain, through those who
customarily live in them, thus solving logistical and terrorist training pro-
blems, while hindering any security measures, fracturing the community
and forcing its members to take a stance.
It is no longer a case of big, complex terrorist attacks aimed at attracting
the media (of which there are many on record that resulted in failure, so-
metimes even with the death of the perpetrators due to lack of training).
It is about simpler acts, like hit and run accidents, stabbings....acts with
high emotional impact, accessible, carried out by inspired people, split
from the group and, therefore, extremely difficult for the police to control.
Individual initiative is then given free reign and examples are produced of
people who, from within their own daily activities, can act at the service
of religion. Yet again, an inspiration for the group.
Often enough the acts are carried out by people with identity definition
problems (second-generation emigrants, as were the culprits of the Lon-
don 2005 attempts; converts; people integrated in a counter-culture...),
people who fail to truly fit into the society that received them, or to iden-
tify with, or be themselves a part of, that society.
As Fanon22 notes, for these people violence presents itself as a sort of li-
berating activity, a permanent commitment with one of the cultures which
coincide in their lives. Abdenabid Kunja, one of the terrorists who killed
himself in Leganés, said in a farewell letter to his children: «I cannot abide
to live this life as someone weak and humiliated in the eyes of the infidels».
What seem to be the latest acts of jihadist violence in Boston (committed
by the Tsarnaev brothers with pressure cookers), London (running over
a man and slitting his throat) and Paris (stabbing) come from a terrorism
pattern that has chosen to confront the West by reducing the role of its
nucleus--decimated by an efficient international persecution--and lead
the way to be followed by the members of the community, so that they are
the ones who, appropriately oriented, perpetrate the attacks with all the
means at their disposal.
It is a case of terrorism of the anarchistic and individualistic sort with
which AlQaeda is trying to overcome the increasingly diminishing num-
Fanon, Fritz. The damned of the Earth. Economic Culture Fund of Spain, 2007.
22
58
ber of jihadist attacks in the West and its even more increasingly dimini-
shing effectiveness, which has succeeded in removing the organization
from the media.
This fragmentation of terrorism shows the vulnerability of those societies
that suffer from it. It generates uncertainty, it fractures the community,
makes the religious context a necessary reference, causing a rift between
believers and spreading mistrust towards Moslems, with the hope that
overreaction on the part of the State or the society unites once and for all
the Moslems living within it.
It has now been years since the first signs of this pattern of action towards
«targets of opportunity» were detected in the North of Africa with tourists;
the methodology also included hit and run killings, stabbings and even an
attempt to bomb a bus with a butane gas canister. The West has seen the
precedent of the stabbings of Theo van Gogh in 2004, of the British Parlia-
ment member Stephen Timms in 2010 or the shooting murders by Arid
Uka in 2010 and Mohammed Merah in 2011 (this last one being especially
repulsive, because among the 7 casualties there were three Jewish chil-
dren). The case of the lone wolves does not only include AlQaeda members,
and we should not forget this, as in the case of the Norwegian Breivik.
The role of external actors: regional implications
If there is one thing absolutely clear from the results of the surveys perio-
dically issued by CIS (Sociological Investigation Center) under the auspi-
ces of IEEE (Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies), it is that Spanish so-
ciety does not perceive the existence of a threat to National Security, with
all the implications this has for budget considerations. However, facts are
stubborn, and Spain is precisely the country that suffered, in March 11,
2004, the greatest terrorist attack in Western Europe in the last 50 years:
an attack at the very least inspired, if not directed, precisely by AlQaeda.
For some part of the population it was a one-time event, a consequence
of a specific situation. But the only certain fact is that it happened, and
that since then more and more jihadist cells appear, even though they are
rapidly broken up by effective police and intelligence action.
In 2006 the strategic alliance between the Salafist Group for Preaching
and Combat and AlQaeda served as a base for the creation of AlQaeda in
the Islamic Maghreb, which transports the organization to the strategic
environment of our country and poses a direct, stable and credible threat
against National Security, carried out by individuals with long experience
of insurgency and terrorist activity.
We should not forget that Algeria, a country bordering Spain, has expe-
rienced since the beginning of the 1990s a great many violent acts that
have caused around 200,000 dead; it is thus hardly surprising that some
59
of the most significant authors of 3/11 were Algerian. Recent events in

Libya have turned a country located in the middle of the Mediterranean
into a semi-failed state, provoking a domino effect over Mali and destabi-
lizing significant portions of the Sahel.
The same kind of caution should be shown with those Spanish citizens
-according to several sources they could be around one hundred- who
have travelled to the Syrian conflict, as well as others, such as members
of jihadist groups.
In any case, AlQaeda is a group with an eminently incorrigible character,
committed to the recovery of the territories that once, for some time, be-
longed to Islam. That is why Al Andalus, Ceuta and Melilla are places of
reference in the public jihadist rhetoric.
Al Andalus is a term with mythical connotations, since its fall marks, ac-
cording to many, the beginning of the decadence of the Moslem world.
The cities of Ceuta and Melilla, both with similar features, are located in
Africa, and that is a fact that adds a plus of nationalism to their speech,
which in some way reinforces their legitimacy as Islamic fighters in the
eyes of their followers.
The December 2012 attack by the jihadi group «Al Morbitun «, belonging
to the jihadist nebula allied to AlQaeda and led by Moktar Belmokhtar,
against the gas facilities in Tingatourine, is the expression of this poten-
tial threat, which resulted in a major reduction of gas supply to our coun-
try, thus endangering its energy security and showing its strategic vulne-
rability. It is not a minor problem, and it demands Spain’s commitment to
the stability of its strategic environment.
Nonetheless, neither should the threat be overstated. Real power is not
determined by its capacity for destruction, but by a potential of construc-
tion that, it should be noted, an organization such as AlQaeda does not
possess, least of all in a society like ours. Certainly its actions can disrupt
public life, which is not a trivial or minor consideration, but by no means
does it hold elements for a greater threat than this, unless the group was
to deploy weapons of mass destruction.
In order to undermine their threat, which is not only real, but has now
also materialized and caused great damage, it will be necessary to reach
a commitment, with the countries that are part of our strategic environ-
ment, to their security and development, as well as the acquisition of the
means required to prevent the threat from taking shape again, thus avoi-
ding strategic surprise.
Furthermore, Spain is a significant member of international society. This
makes the country especially responsible, as happens in any neighbor-
hood association. It must contribute to its security and support. It is a
mandatory solidarity.
60
Conclusions and perspective
Conclusions
AlQaeda’s evolution into high levels of decentralization is an expression

of the significant loss of operational capacity experienced, at least in the
West. Its main success has been surviving after the considerable direct
pressure it has undergone.
Moreover, AlQaeda has become nowadays a symbol, because of its past,
because it has succeeded in challenging the first world power. Its achie-
vement has been twofold: to invigorate the jihadist movement, populari-
zing the term to the point that it is not unreal to talk about the existence
of a «leaderless jihad»; and to increase noticeably the number of this type
of movements, generating with it a sort of «AlQaedism» based on all kinds
of associations and franchises.
Nevertheless, there is an evident lack of connection between AlQaeda’s
agenda and its real «military» capacities, between its objectives and the
means at its disposal to accomplish them. It develops its performance
simultaneously in a double dimension, combining at one and the same
time terrorism and insurgency.
It does so by trying in the first place to become Islam’s representative,
which entails the validation of its religious outlook. The result is a hori-
zontal violence --in the form of insurgency or terrorism, depending on the
case--whose goal is transforming society; and a vertical violence, of the
terrorist sort, that aims for the same goals, and which is directed against
the West and therefore against local political leaders, considered as its
representatives because they do not fully apply Islamic law.
This second vertical level of action serves to place AlQaeda at the fore-
front of Islam, undermine and discredit its political enemies and contribu-
te to victory on the first horizontal level, which is truly the concept where
its religious and political outlook lies.
The double dimension of terrorism shows itself in the current AlQaeda
strategy, which tries from within the Islamic world to benefit from the si-
tuation of social and institutional weakness produced by «Arab Springs»,
while on the outside expresses its commitment through the use of the so
called «lone wolves». At the same time, all this translates at a local level
to the use of violence for real operational goals and to an insurgency di-
rected against established power, while at a global level the use is mainly
instrumental and media oriented.
The debates between confronting the «close enemy» or the «distant
enemy» fundamentally define those selection strategies followed to
choose a nucleus and its subsidiaries. In practical terms, the actions on
61
the «distant enemy» have been clearly reduced to testimonial operations

or the participation of individual actors (lone wolves). The local dimen-
sion predominates clearly and decisively over the global one. However,
violence directed against Moslems themselves has been identified as a
strategic vulnerability due to its overuse.
This said, it must be pointed out that global terrorism has not been able
to root itself fully at a local level; the fitting process has encountered mul-
tiple difficulties. Different peoples don’t feel the Islamic principles that
AlQaeda sustains as their own, not even at a regional level. AlQaeda’s
failure in the Islamic Mahgreb when trying to represent a pan-Maghreb
identity may be good evidence of this.
Moreover, the existence of a terrorism classified as global makes possi-
ble the existence of a global anti-terrorist policy, which at the same time
reinforces the global policies of those States that fight such phenomena.
Therefore, the magnification of this kind of terrorism can even result, in a
certain sense and at a given time, in an advantage for the West.
In any case, the bid of these organizations for individual, limited and
unconnected actions while they hardly draw any attention in the media
(compared with what they enjoyed before), far from activating the Muslim
community in the West, may deactivate it even more. And according to
Mao’s logic, it could even immunize it against future actions, given the
fact that neither in 2001, nor, even less, now, can it find the objective con-
ditions required for a movement of this sort to succeed in the Islamic
World at a global or even local level.
Certainly, to prevent the actions of the radicals is difficult, and it will inevi-
tably require a pedagogical approach that neutralizes their narrative and
avoids as much as possible the transit of radicalized members of the
group to the position of activists. But to definitively wipe out an organiza-
tion like AlQaeda, acting as it does with a franchised system, is complica-
ted. There will always be someone left to use its name.
Predictions
In order to make a prediction we should first find those elements that will
determine the future, those events that will shape it, in a world more and
more complex and interdependent. Trying to do this with a terrorist group
is not only risky, but even reckless, because it implies claiming to know
the future of a collective that prides itself on its initiative, secrecy, origina-
lity and power to surprise the audience. Any analysis must be done, at any
case, in dialectical form: that is, taking the future as a tendency deduced
from the logic of action-reaction.
62
In this context, relations between Islam and the West are a key factor.
And they are unlikely to improve, no matter how much they intensify, be-
cause each party works in a different cultural area, increasing contra-
dictions and problems as well as the perception of injustice, the result
of a growing economic unbalance very difficult to solve. These are the
problems associated with an unavoidable approach and encounter.
It seems then that the organization will continue to exist. It is a hydra
which can be contained, but is extremely difficult to liquidate. It will also
continue serving as a reference in the popular imagination. Its image will
be the totem of a nebula of jihadist groups, the light high on the mountain,
but its operational capacity will remain minimal and stable. Its survival is
the only important thing. It transcends its own military capacities. As Lao
Tse said, «to remain weak equals strength.»
The local level of the fight, insurgency, will continue to be crucial. Meanwhi-
le, terrorism will be the prevailing intercultural form of violence thanks to
its high- profile character and also because it pays benefits at a local level.
But terrorism is not decisive, and that is the reason why jihadist organiza-
tions will maintain their efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction. It
is a difficult task, but essential for succeeding against the West.
In this context, it is absolutely necessary to control the cash flow that
finances extreme radicalism from outside, as a means of avoiding the
creation of terrorist economies that will make its existence possible. And
it is equally necessary to adopt all measures necessary to avoid the pro-
liferation of and accessibility to such technologies.
The local-global link of Islamist actions will improve, and that will make
their activities at a local level more synergistic at a global level. However,
the conflicts in which the organization thrives are unlikely to be solved,
because their real causes tend not to be dealt with, but rather replaced
by others.
In the long term this will gradually provoke weariness in the native peo-
ples whose worries lie in their daily lives, and who see how an unpleasant
situation prolongs itself without being solved. All this at the same time
that their concept of religion and the world is disregarded, if not scorned
and flatly proscribed. That is why it is possible to foresee the emergence
of conflicts of this kind between jihadists and local populations.
A stark analysis of reality would tell us that terrorism is an instrument
of collective action, a tool (illegitimate) for politics, in which personal im-
print has its place but cannot become the main core of every activity if it
wants to advance and not remain a zero sum game; the operational side
of terrorism cannot substitute for political direction, and politics cannot
refrain from playing a role only to enable the organization’s survival.
63
In the operational field, Von Moltke has pointed out, in the context of the
Franco-Prussian war, that the result of «giving arms to the people» was
a guarantee of failure, added to unnecessary bloodshed. The vanguard
of society, which is what every terrorist organization tries to represent,
has taken a step back in Al Qaeda´s case so that the community goes on
alone; this would not seem to have much future, albeit a single and deter-
mined man can still do a great deal of damage.
To predict Al Qaeda´s future also requires addressing the situation of
State and social fragility that the Islamic world generally experiences
nowadays.
Therefore, jihadist groups will probably have to adapt even more to native
populations in terms of values, assuming in those regions the functions
that would normally be provided by the State and satisfying the social de-
mands made on them; in other words, they will have to replace the State.
The card the West holds to confront the problem posed by Al Qaeda and
its cohort of associated jihadist movements is to deactivate Islamic mo-
vements by promoting their integration into the state and trivializing
them, in the sense that Oliver Roy suggests.
The institutionalization of Islamism would imply its withdrawal from the
revolutionary road and its conformation in the State/Nation logic, as well
as the setting aside of transnational ideological references in favor of
national interests. Experience thus far indicates that such an event would
bring with it a weakening of its ideological role; its activity, in practical
terms, becoming limited to a re-Islamization of customs and Law disasso-
ciated from any other aspiration. In other words: Islamization from the top
downwards.23 Any other approach would cause its collapse and replace-
ment as happened in Egypt, because if Westernization has had its limits,
«Easternization» has its own.
The coming to power of radicals can also force them to come to terms
with the contradictions between their own creed and the need to meet the
real demands of the population and accept its religious concepts. These
countries cannot live without the West in a world that has folded in upon
itself; nobody can become an island, not even by free will.
The key to all problems lies in strengthening the state so that it can adapt
itself better to the society it is built upon, while satisfying its demands
and finding a future for its citizens, as radicalization is avoided, first with
pedagogy, and with police action as a support.
Every river flows into the sea, but the sea is never filled.
ROY, Oliver. Islam Globalized. Bellaterra Editions, 2003.

23
64
65
Moldova and Transnistria: a frozen conflict in the Chapter
heart of Europe three
Summary
The conflict between Moldova and its separatist region of Transnistria

has remained «frozen» ever since the ceasefire agreement of 1992, and
remains without resolution despite countless international initiatives to
that end. This year, the crisis in Ukraine and the signing of the Associa-
tion Agreement between Moldova and the EU have reactivated tension,
as Transnistria’s desires for independence and union with Russia may be
increased.
Key words
Moldova, Transnistria, Russia, Romania, European Union.
67
Moldova and Transnistria: a frozen conflict in the...
Introduction
The bridge over the River Dniester in the Moldovan town of Gura Bucu-
lui, which carries the road joining the capital Chisinau with Odessa on
the Black Sea, was destroyed during the 1992 war, which pitted Moldo-
va against its separatist region of Transnistria. The European Union (EU)
funded its reconstruction in 2001, in the hope of nurturing contacts and
commerce between the two banks. Nevertheless, the bridge remains clo-
sed to traffic to this day and access for pedestrians is often restricted,
with the installation of border checkpoints.
That bridge symbolizes the quintessential Eastern European frozen
conflict situation as, even though there have been no armed clashes
since the ceasefire was signed in 1992, the international communi-
ty has not been able to force an agreement between the two sides
despite the involvement of a large number of players. Unfortunately,
the end of the conflict has appeared to be in sight many times, but
opportunities were lost one after another, and the current escalation
of tension in the Post-Soviet area does not allow us to be optimistic
about the future.
Historical reasons for the division of Moldova
It is essential to refer to History, as many of the keys to the conflict are

to be found there. In broad terms, the present-day Republic of Moldova
(Transnistria included) does not correspond to any known historical enti-
ty. Thus, the traditional Principality of Moldova consisted of (see map 1):
• The Republic now known as Bessarabia (excluding Transnistria),
between the Rivers Prut (West) and Dniester (East) and the Black
Sea coast.
• The current Romanian region of Moldova, between the Carpathians
(West) and the River Prut (East).
• Bukovina, to the Northeast, where the capital Suceava once stood.
The Principality, with a mainly Romanian population (Latin Christians of
the Orthodox faith), was created when it separated itself from the Mag-
yars in the 13th Century, only to lose its independence at the hands of
the Ottoman Empire in the 16th Century. In 1775 the Austro-Hungarian
Empire took over Bukovina, in 1812 the Tzarist Empire conquered Bes-
sarabia and the remaining territory joined Wallachia in 1859 to form the
first Romanian State, with its capital in Bucharest.
This arrangement was to last until the geo-political earthquake caused
in Eastern Europe by World War I. Romania, which had fought against
69
Map 1: the historical Principality of Moldova

the Central Powers, received Transylvania and Southern Bukovina (both
at the expense of the former Austro-Hungarian Empire) as a reward for
being on the winning side, and struggled against the Soviets for control
of Bessarabia, until that region became independent of the newly born
USSR in 1918 and was incorporated into the Romanian Kingdom.
In 1940, at the height of World War II, the USSR recovered Bessarabia,
only to lose it again during the Nazi offensive in 1941, and re-conque-
red it definitively in 1944. Owing to the Soviet addiction to changing their
internal borders, and creating artificial political entities where distinct
ethnic groups are obliged to live together (diluting differences beneath
the ideological cloak of Marxism), and to some extent to the desire for
revenge against a territory classified as traitor, the Kremlin decided that:
• The North of Bessarabia and Bukovina (in pink on map 1) would be
incorporated into the Soviet Socialist Republic of Ukraine, to whom
the Black Sea coast from Odessa to the Romanian frontier (Budjak
on map 1) was also assigned.
• The Soviet Socialist Republic of Moldavia (MSSR) would be crea-
ted out of the remaining territory between the Prut and Dniester
Rivers, and present-day Transnistria (in green and grey stripes on
map 1) would be incorporated into it, with a majority of Russian
and Ukrainian inhabitants.
70
• The autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic of Moldavia (MASSR),

which existed between the wars, should be divided in two: the abo-
ve-mentioned Transnistria and the region with a capital in Balta,
which was also assigned to Ukraine (in pink and grey stripes on
map 1).
Moreover, the local language (called Moldavian, but which to all intents
and purposes is Romanian), was discriminated against compared with
Russian, and came to be written in the Cyrillic instead of the Latin alpha-
bet. That was the situation at the end of the eighties, when the USSR star-
ted to disintegrate and latent conflicts surfaced between its republics.
The military phase of the conflict
Parallel to the efforts of the MSSR to secede from the USSR, protest mo-
vements began in regions such as Transnistria and Gagauzia,1 inhabi-
ted by non-Romanian ethnic minorities. That resistance movement was
primarily motivated by fear that post-independence Moldova would seek
reunification with Romania, as in the 1918-1940 period.2
In fact, on 31st August 1989, the Supreme Soviet of the Republic decla-
red Moldovan to be the official language and decreed the return of Latin
characters for the written language, abandoning the Cyrillic alphabet. On
27th April 1990, a tricolor flag was adopted (with the coat of arms of the
Principality of Moldova) as well as the Romanian national anthem, and at
the end of that year its name changed to the «Republic of Moldova».
In reaction, the Slavs proclaimed the Transnistrian Moldovan Republic
(TMR) on 2nd September 1990, even before Moldova declared its indepen-
dence from the USSR in August 1991.3 The first deaths were produced on
1
The case of Gagauzia is less well known than that of Transnistria. The Gagauzes are
a people of Turkmen origin, who number barely over a quarter of a million (the majority
concentrated in the south of Moldova) and whose peculiarity is that, unlike the rest of
Turkmen peoples, they are Orthodox Christians. On this issue, see ROPER, Steven D.,
«Regionalism in Moldova: The Case of Transnistria and Gagauzia», Regional & Federal
Studies, Vol.11, No.3, 2001, pp.101-122.
2
For a study of the factors of controversy in this conflict, see COJOCARU, Natalia,
«Nationalism and identity in Transnistria», The European Journal of Social Science
Research, Vol.19, No.3-4, 2006, pp.261-272; and WATERS Trevor, «Russian peacekee-
ping in Moldova: Source of stability or neo-imperialist threat?», in MACKINLEY, John y
CROSS, Peter, Regional peacekeepers: The paradox of Russian peacekeeping, New York:
United Nations University, 2003, 133-136.
3
The first leader of the TMR, Igor Smirnov, stated that «the Moldovan Parliament
adopted laws that clearly violated the rights of some of its people, discriminating
against them. They spoke, moreover, in favor of creating a «Great Romania». All this
naturally alarmed our population, because the land beyond the Dniester had never been
Romanian land». LAMONT, Neil V., Territorial dimensions of ethnic conflict: the Moldovan
71
3rd December 1990, when the Moldovan police gunned down three civi-
lians trying to break through the blockade on the bridge over the Dniester
at Dubasari.4
The 1989 census revealed that there were 4.3 million people living in the
Moldovan SSR, of whom 2.8 million (64%) were Moldovans, 14% Ukrai-
nians and 13% Russians and the remaining 9% were Gagauzes and other
minorities (see map 2).
Map 2: ethnic distribution in the Republic of Moldova
Not all Slavs were concentrated in Transnistria, whose ethnic distribution

in 1991 consisted of 40% Moldovans, 28% Ukrainians and 23% Russians.
case, 1995, available at http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/documents/moldovan/mol-

dovan.htm#6. [Consulted: 06 April 2014].
4
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP, «Moldova: no quick fix», Europe Report, No.147, 12
August 2003, available at http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/europe/Moldo-
va%20147.pdf [Consulted: 05 April 2014].
72
There was also another important economic factor at stake, since this
area – with only 12% of the territory and 17% of the population of Moldo-
va, accounted for 35% of its GDP.5
March 2nd 1992 is considered to have been the official start of the war,
coinciding with Moldova’s admission as member of the U.N. Large-scale
combat began in May 1992, when Chisinau tried to recover sovereign-
ty over the TMR, using its newly formed militias, combat-trained by Ro-
mania. The civil war ended with a secessionist victory, 1,500 dead and
100,000 people displaced from their homes.6
As a result of this, Moldova lost control of 4,163 sq. km of its territory, 452
km of its frontier with Ukraine and 600,000 of its inhabitants.7
The role of Russia in the military phase of the conflict
As far as Russia’s role in the conflict is concerned, the 14th Army, which
had been based in the area since 1954, was the main protagonist.8 Gene-
ral Yakovlev, its commanding officer in 1991, allowed the Transnistrian
militias to access the arsenals under his charge.9 His successor, General
Netkachev, adopted a more neutral position during the conflict. Neverthe-
less, his attempts to mediate between Chisinau and Tiraspol (capital of
the TMR) were fruitless and the situation escalated into the above-men-
tioned open military conflict in May 1992.
On 23rd June, at the height of the Moldovan offensive, General Alexander
Lebed10 reached the area with orders to prevent the theft of weapons and
5
KING, Charles, «The Benefits of Ethnic War: Understanding Eurasia’s Unrecognized
States», World Politics, No.53, 2001, pp.524-552.
6
For a complete analysis of the military dimension of the conflict, see BÁRCENAS,
Luis A. and LÓPEZ, José A., Frozen conflicts of the former Soviet Union, Madrid: Ministry
of Defense, 2011, pp.29-67.
7
BLANC ARTEMIR Antonio, Territorial, interethnic and national conflicts in the States
emerging from the former Soviet Union, Valencia: Tirant lo Blanc, 2004, p 215.
8
Russian leaders of the time, immersed in the political transition, lacked both a clear
idea of their national security interests and defined rules of conduct towards the ex-So-
viet republics. As a result of this, the Russian military, and especially units stationed in
these States, were to all intents and purposes left to fend for themselves. SELIVANOVA,
Irina F., «Trans-Dnistria», in AZRAEL, Jeremy R. and PAYIN, Emil A.(Ed.), US and Russia
policy-making with respect to the use of force, RAND Center for Russian and Eurasian
Studies, 1995, p.57, available at http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/conf_
proceedings/2007/CF129.pdf.[Consulted: 03 April 2014].
9
General Yakovlev supported the TMR so openly that he was a member of its Su-
preme Soviet and accepted the post of Chairman of the Defense Department on 3rd
December 1991, the day he was relieved as head of the 14th Army.
10
For more on the figure of Lebed and his role in Moldavia, see O’MALLEY, Kevin D.,
A Russian man on horseback: The rise of General Alexander Lebed, Chapter 3 «The
fighting General: Lebed in Moldova», Monterrey: Naval Postgraduate School, March
73
evacuate the 14th Army, crossing Ukraine. After assessing the situation,
Lebed decided to involve the Russian troops in the ongoing combat, and
on 3rd July 1992, a massive artillery attack on the right bank of the Dnies-
ter annihilated the Moldovan forces attacking Bendery, putting an end to
the military phase of the conflict.11
A statement attributed to Lebed would demonstrate his personal com-
mitment to the Slav cause: «I am proud that we have helped Transnistria
against those Moldovan fascists». Another quote attributed to him, howe-
ver, describes his position (which could be considered that of the Russian
Federation) in the following way: «I told the fanatical separatists of Tiraspol
and fascists of Chisinau: either you stop killing each other or I’ll fire on all of
you with my tanks».12
On 25th June 1992, the presidents of Russia, Ukraine, Moldova and Roma-
nia met together in Moscow to agree on a ceasefire, signed on 21st July13.
The forces of both sides would be separated by an interpositional force
made up of five Russian battalions, three Moldovan and two from the TMR.
Compliance with the terms of the agreement would be overseen by a
«Joint Control Commission» based in Bendery, which had the «Joint Mili-
tary Command» under it14.
In April 1995, the 14th Army was renamed as «Russian Forces Task For-
ce», and reduced to 2,600 troops, which, in theory, remained in the area
as a peace-keeping force to monitor the 1992 agreement. The biggest
problem was the 42,000 tons of military equipment stored in Transnistria
from the Soviet era.
1997, available at http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA329373.[Consulted:

03 April 2014].
11
It appears to be established that Moscow’s intention in sending General Lebed to
Moldova was not to favor the TMR, but rather to stop the separatist militias looting
the arsenal of the 14th Army. OZHIGANOV, Edward, «The Republic of Moldova: Transd-
niester and the 14th Army», in ARBATOV, Alexei et al., Managing conflict in the former
Soviet Union: Russian and American perspectives, Boston: Harvard University, 1997,
pp.147-148.
12
HUMPHRIES, Richard, «Transnistria: relic of a bygone era», The Japan Times
(8.10.2001), available at http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/fv20011008a2.html. [Con-
sulted: 03 April 2014].
13
As part of the ceasefire agreement, three commitments were undertaken: to res-
pect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Moldova, including Transnistria; future
concession of special legal and administrative status to the breakaway region; and the
drawing up of a timetable for the withdrawal of Russia’s 14th Army. BÁRCENAS, Luis A.
Y LÓPEZ, José A., Óp.cit., p.170.
14
KEMP, Walter, «Bridge over the Dniester: confidence-building measures in Moldova,
Issue Brief, International Peace Institute, March 2011, available at http://ipinst.org/me-
dia/pdf/publications/ipi_epub_bridge_over_dniestr.pdf.[Consulted: 05 April 2014].
74
Moscow was not prepared to assume the costs of recovering it and its
attempts to sell some of it off to a third party ended in failure. Added to
that, the secessionist authorities consider this material as a guarantee of
independence and have declared that it belongs to them and that Russia
would have to pay to get it back.15
The initial involvement of the CSCE
As regards the role of the Conference for Security and Cooperation in Eu-
rope (CSCE) in this crisis, its mission in Moldova began on 25th April 1993,
and thus nine months after the end of the military phase of the conflict, in
order to facilitate a lasting and comprehensive political settlement on all
aspects of the conflict on the left bank of the Dniester in the Republic of
Moldova, based on CSCE principles and commitments.
The mandate of the Mission, composed of eight persons, consisted of:
facilitating the establishment of a global political framework for under-
taking dialogue and negotiations; compiling and providing information
about the situation, including the military situation, and investigating
specific incidents; fomenting negotiations on the status and withdrawal
of foreign troops; providing advice and legal expertise; and initiating a
visible CSCE presence in the region.16
The current state of the conflict
International mediation efforts
As opposed to what happens in other frozen conflicts in the post-Soviet

space, in the case of Moldova, there is no hatred between ethnic groups
to impede any resolution initiatives. According to a study from 2009,
78.1% of all Moldovans and 56.1% of Transnistrian inhabitants feel that
the secession has been detrimental for both parties, as it has prevented
them from improving their standard of living. As a whole, 87.4% consi-
der that resolving the conflict is important for the future of Moldova and
Transnistria.
As regards their foreign policy stance, 61.7% of all Moldovans and 53.1%
of TMR inhabitants had a positive view of the EU, with 68.8% and 46.6%
respectively, advocating membership of the Union. As for Russia, 58.5%
of right bank inhabitants and 81.7% from the left bank had a positive vi-
15
KING, Charles, «Eurasia Letter: Moldova with a Russian Face», Foreign Policy, No.97,
winter 1994-1995, pp.106-120.
16
FREIRE, María R., Conflict and security in the former Soviet Union: The role of the
OSCE, Burlington: Ashgate, 2003, pp.195-252.
75
sion. Nevertheless, there are powerful forces within both groups who be-
nefit from maintaining the status quo.17
There have been constant mediation efforts by various international figu-
res. Thus on 23rd March 1992, the Ministers of Foreign Affairs from Mol-
dova, Russia, Romania and Ukraine adopted a declaration in Helsinki on
joint principles for the peaceful resolution of the conflict and agreed to
create a mechanism for political consultations to coordinate their efforts.
A quadripartite commission was established in April to monitor imple-
mentation of an eventual ceasefire, but the military escalation left this
mechanism in suspension.
The Transnistria issue was also discussed within the framework of the
recently created «Community of Independent States» (CIS), leaving them-
selves the option of deploying a peacekeeping force in accordance with
the «Agreement on
groups of military observers and peacekeeping forces in the CIS», signed
in Kiev on 20th March of that year. The Moscow Summit of 6th July agreed
on deployment of Russian, Ukrainian, Byelorussian, Romanian and Bul-
garian joint forces, if Chisinau requested it (an agreement which became
invalid after the ceasefire of 21st July 1992).
After several years of impasse, the first breakthrough was achieved on
May 8th 1997, with the signing of the «Memorandum on the basis for
normalization of relations between the Republic of Moldova and Trans-
nistria». On 20th March 1998 the so-called «Odessa Agreement» was rea-
ched on measures of trust and development of contacts between Moldova
and Transnistria18, outlining ten specific actions:
• To reduce, within two months, the number of troops from Moldo-
va and Transnistria deployed in the safety zone, up to 500 troops
apiece.
• To reduce, in coordination with the «Joint Military Command», the
number of static controls of the peacekeeping forces and replace
them with mobile patrols.
• To receive, within the space of a month, an analysis of the «Joint
Control Commission» on compliance with the 1992 ceasefire
agreement.
• To draw up a list of proposals, within two months, for reducing the
number of border controls between Moldova and Transnistria, in
order to facilitate movement of people, goods and services.
KEMP, Walter, Op.cit., pp.2-3.

17
Agreement on Confidence Measures and Development of Contacts between the Re-

18
public of Moldova and Transnistria, Odessa, 20 March 1998, available at http://www.

osce.org/moldova/42310?download=true.[Consulted: 6 April 2014].
76
• To make the bridge over the Dniester in the city of Dubossar ope-
rational before May, following the security measures established
by the Commission.
• To contribute to the rapid withdrawal of military equipment, which
remains in storage in Transnistria, with Ukraine’s cooperation in
facilitating its movement.
• To create, within a month, a working group to draw up a compre-
hensive program for combatting illegal trafficking of drugs and
arms.
• To avoid measures which could lead to a propaganda war, giving
objective information about progress of negotiations.
• To set up joint programs to support investment projects, re-
construction of industries and power plants and environmental
protection.
• To respect and protect human rights and freedoms, in accordance
with international law.
The next significant initiative appeared in November 2003, when Russia
introduced the «Kozak Memorandum» (named in honor of its sponsor,
Presidential adviser Dimitri Kozak)19.This marked an important change in
the Russian position, since it discarded the concept of sovereign equality
between Chisinau and Tiraspol, maintained so far, and proposed instead
an asymmetric Federation with broad autonomy for Transnistria.
However, the door stood open for the presence of Russian troops in the
area up until 2020, and the powers of veto granted to Tiraspol would
allow de facto control of Chisinau’s major decisions20. For this reason, and
on the advice of the West, Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin rejected
it, provoking Russian resentment and the clashes during the OSCE Minis-
terial Summit in Maastricht in December 2003.21
Voronin further strained relations with Russia by publishing the «3D Ac-
tion plan and Strategy for resolution of the Transnistria conflict» on 1st
October 2004 (demilitarization, decriminalization and democratization
of Transnistria)22, and given the lack of progress in the five-sided nego-
tiations (Moldova, Transnistria, Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE), Moldova
19
POPESCU, Nicu, «The EU and Transnistria», UNISCI Discussion Papers, No.10,
January 2006, p.249, available at http://revistas.ucm.es/index.php/UNIS/article/view/
UNIS0606130247A/28143.[Consulted: 03 April 2014].
20
POPESCU, Nicu, «The EU in Moldova-Settling conflicts in the neighborhood», EU-
ISS Occasional Paper, No.60, October 2005, p.30, available athttp://www.iss.europa.eu/
uploads/media/occ60.pdf.[Consulted: 03 April 2014].
21
Eleventh Meeting of the Ministerial Council, Maastricht, 1 & 2 December 2003, avai-
lable at http://www.osce.org/mc/40533.[Consulted: 03 abril 2014].Page 108 of the do-
cument carries the communiqué of the delegation from the Russian Federation.
22
BOONSTRA, Jos, «Moldavia, Transnistria and European democracy policies», Com-
mentary FRIDE, available at http://www.osce.org/mc/40533.[Consulted: 03 April 2014].
77
proposed that the EU and USA should be incorporated into the process of
negotiations that same year, in a format known as 2+5.
In addition, in October 2005 Brussels approved the EU Border Assistan-
ce Mission in the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine (acronym EUBAM), to
improve monitoring and control of the movement of goods and people be-
tween the two countries, as well as fighting against trafficking of human
beings, smuggling of goods and weapons, and corruption.23
That same year, newly elected Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko
issued his alternative plan to the «Kozak Memorandum» proposing auto-
nomy for Transnistria, but without federalizing Moldova nor guaranteeing
Tiraspol the right to secede if Chisinau were to decide on union with Ro-
mania. The Moldovan Parliament adopted Yuschenko’s plan and gave it
the force of law in 2005, but Transnistria rejected it.
In retaliation, Ukraine decided that it would only import goods from
Transnistria if they were processed by the Moldovan customs service.
Russia and Transnistria classified this as economic blockade, and Tiras-
pol responded by holding a referendum on September 17, 2006, in which
the yes to independence and future integration with Russia reached 98%
(with 78.6% participation).
Political division of Moldova as source of weakness
In Moldova, the «Alliance for European Integration» (AEI) ousted the Com-
munist Party from power in 2009, but it is made up of various groups
with weak cohesion: the Liberal-Democratic Party of Prime Minister Lurie
Leanca (with 31 seats), the Democratic Party of Parliament Speaker Ma-
rian Lupu (with 15 seats), and the Liberal Reform Party of Mihai Ghimpu
(with 12 seats).24 The two minority parties have been ganging up against
their government partner, and disputes between Prime Minister Vlad Filat
and Vlad Palhoniuc (number two in the Democratic Party and the richest
person in Moldova) ended with the former being replaced by Leanca (Mi-
nister of Foreign Affairs) in May 2013.
On page 108 of the document is the communiqué of the delegation from the Russian
Federation.
23
«Trafficking in human beings and a variety of smuggling (from stolen cars to drugs,
weapons, tobacco and alcohol) are two worrying areas of transnational organized crime,
from a regional perspective.» WOLFF, Stefan, The Transnistrian issue: moving beyond
the status-quo, EU DG for External Policies, October 2012, p.15, available at https://
www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/224472/evi-
dence-stefan-wolff-the-transnistrian-issue.pdf.[Consulted: 08 April 2014].
24
«The Alliance is far from being a stable political bloc united more by a common
enemy-the Communists - than by a political agenda and a common vision. «.WOLFF,
Stefan, Op.cit., p.8.
78
The opposition consists of the Communist Party (34 seats) and 9 indepen-
dent deputies. The Communists ruled between 2001 and 2009, and aimed
to regain power, capitalizing on social discontent with the economic si-
tuation and with the support of the pro-Russian sectors. To do this, they
tried to launch a «velvet revolution» in the summer of 2013, with the aim
of overthrowing the government and preventing the signing of the Asso-
ciation Agreement with the EU, scheduled for November of that year.25
In the anti-government demonstrations, Communists denounced the
rampant corruption, proposed readjusting budgets to provide greater so-
cial protection for the most disadvantaged, and advocated restoration of
moral values against Western influence, a goal they have in common with
the most traditional sectors of the Orthodox Church.
Paradoxically, it was the Communist Voronin who set the European cour-
se, with the approval of the «Action Plan Moldova-EU» in 2004. However,
after their move to the opposition, Communists intend to maintain a dou-
ble foreign vector (EU and Russia) adapting in each case to what is most
beneficial. The problem is that the terms of the agreement with the EU
are incompatible with further integration into the Customs Union initiated
by Russia, which forces them to choose between one or the other.26
Another important issue is the position of the parties regarding a subject
that may seem trivial, but actually plays a major role in the conflict: the
official name of the language as Moldovan or Romanian.27 The Consti-
tution and most people go for the first option (to consider it a dialectal
variation), but intellectual elites advocate the second, since the standar-
dized and cultured version of the language coincides fully with Romanian.
The Constitutional Court addressed the issue in December 2013, stating
that the Declaration of Independence of 1991 takes precedence over the
Constitution of 1994, and since it declared Romanian the official language
of the country, this is the criterion that must prevail. It is interesting to
25
SOCOR, Vladimir, «Russia and the Moldovan Communists’ Red October», Eurasia
Daily Monitor, Vol.10, No.176, 3 October 2013.
26
Of the six countries in the Eastern Partnership of the EU, Moldova and Georgia have
opted for signing the Association Agreement and Free Trade with the Union, Belarus is
a founding member of the Customs Union and has not even considered the European
way, Azerbaijan has no interest in any of the two options (only wants to increase energy
ties), Armenia decided in September 2013 to forego signing the Agreement with the EU
and requested entry into the Customs Union, and the situation in Ukraine is well known:
renounced signing in November, coup d’etat against President Yanukovich in February,
and signature of the political part of the agreement with the EU by the new authorities
in March.
27
«This controversy permeates political parties, Moldova-Romania relations, policies
on the conflict in Transnistria, and Russia’s policy towards Moldova», SOCOR, Vladimir,
«Language Politics, Party Politics, and Constitutional Court Politics in Moldova», Eurasia
Daily Monitor, Vol.11, No.6, 13 January 2014.
79
note that five of the six members of the Court have dual Romanian-Mol-
dovan nationality. In general, any tendency to Romanianization of Moldova
encourages separatism.
The role of the European Union and the Vilnius Summit
The EU has been supporting the process of building mutual trust between
Moldova and Transnistria, in particular by financing «United Nations De-
velopment Programme» projects, which have promoted cooperation at
the level of small border communities in areas such as health, social
affairs, or the environment since March 2009.28
The current relationship between Moldova and the EU is based on the
Association and Free Trade Agreement, whose approval was made at the
Summit, in Vilnius (Lithuania), of the Eastern Partnership on 28th and
29th November 2013. Furthermore, at that same meeting, the Commis-
sion confirmed that Moldova had completed the action plan for liberaliza-
tion of visas, which recommended their abolition, in the Schengen area,
for holders of biometric passports.
The agreements are expected to enter into force this year (August being
the most likely month for their ratification), in coordination with the legis-
lative elections in November 2014. In this way, the ruling coalition seeks
to exploit success and unseat the Communist Party from its status as the
most voted-for political force.
At the signing of the Association Agreement in Vilnius, the Moldovan
Prime Minister Leanca said that the policy of European integration for
Moldova is the direct continuation of its decision in 1991 to become in-
dependent of the USSR, adding that this path will become irreversible
only when the EU grants it candidate country status, initiating the process
towards full membership.
As regards the conflict in Transnistria, Chisinau authorities expect that
rapprochement to the EU will increase its attractiveness on the left bank,
both to citizens - through the possibilities of travelling to Europe, which
offers the new visa policy - and to companies that could benefit from the
Free Trade Agreement to enter the Community market.29
28
The actions of this program in Moldova, acronym UNDP, are summarized in the
publication Towards equitable and sustainable development for all 2007-2011, availa-
ble at http://www.md.undp.org/content/dam/moldova/docs/Publications/UNDP_MD_
MOLDOVA%202012%20book.pdf.[Consulted: 05 April 2014].
29
SOCOR, Vladimir, «Moldovan Government Moves Closer to the European Union at
the Vilna Summit», Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol.10, No.218, 5 December 2013.
80
However, this assumed increase in Moldovan soft power over ethnic mi-
norities does not seem to have occurred. The «People’s Assembly» of
Gagauzia called a referendum on February 2, 2014, to ask that minority if
it preferred rapprochement to the EU or the Customs Union promoted by
Russia, apart from assessing the possibility of independence from Moldo-
va if it were to unite with Romania.
The result leaves no room for doubt: with over 70% participation, 98.4%
of the votes were in favor of integration into the Customs Union, 97.2%
against joining the EU, and 98 9% in favor of independence. The Assembly
had no powers to call the referendum, but did so despite warnings to the
contrary from the central government, using Russian funding.30
All this happened despite statements by EU officials to the effect that the
process of association with Moldova should not divide people, but rather
provide a basis for social consensus. That is to say, to avoid what was
done in Ukraine, which led to the serious incidents known to all: the inde-
pendence of Crimea and its annexation by Russia.
However, consensus seems further away than ever, as the most recent
opinion polls indicate that among ethnic Moldovans, 55% are in favor of
European orientation and 28% against, while among ethnic Russians the
percentages are 13% and 62% respectively, with ethnic Ukrainians 26%
and 57%, and among other ethnic groups 15% and 51%. In general, su-
pport for the EU in Moldova is progressively decreasing, while the attrac-
tion of Russia is on the increase.31
Current relations between Russia and Moldova
At the end of 2012, tension between Chisinau and Moscow rose again
when President Nicolae Timofti insisted on the unconditional withdrawal
of Russia from Transnistria. In addition, Moldova announced its intention
to progress in its rapprochement to the EU and adopt the second and
third community «Energy Packages», which prohibit a company from be-
ing both a supplier and a distributor via the so called Gazprom clause.
In this regard, Russia offered a 30% discount on the price of gas to Moldo-
va, setting the condition that they waive adoption of the aforementioned
EU legislative packages. Gazprom holds a de facto monopoly on the su-
pply to southeast Europe and is building the South Stream gas pipeline
30
MINZARARI, Dumitru, «The Gagauz Referendum in Moldova: A Russian Political We-
apon?» Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol.11, No.23, 5 February 2014.
31
See INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICIES, Barometer of Public Opinion, November
2013, available at http://www.ipp.md/public/files/Barometru/BOP_11.2013_prima_
parte_English.ppt.[Consulted: 06 April 2014]. Note that this survey does not include the
opinion of the inhabitants of Transnistria, who are certainly positioned in favor of stren-
gthening ties with Russia.
81
through the Black Sea to strengthen it, but if the Balkan countries acce-
lerate implementation of Community rules, all that effort will be in vain.
During his visit to Chisinau in September 2013, Russian Deputy Prime Minister
Dmitry Rogozin (also Transnistrian Presidential representative and co-chair
of the «Committee on Russia-Moldova Economic Cooperation») warned of the
possible consequences for Moldova of the signing of the Association and Free
Trade Agreement with the EU. Among the early Rogozin measures are:
• Compulsory review of Russian-Moldovan trade agreements in for-
ce, with access restrictions on agricultural products for the Rus-
sian market.32
• Possible consequences for hundreds of thousands of Moldovans wor-
king in Russia, which could threaten their continuity in the country.
• Expected cuts in gas supply if government debt is not settled with
the mixed capital company Moldovagaz. Rogozin literally declared:
«We hope they won’t freeze next winter.»
• The permanent loss of Transnistria if the path to European integra-
tion continues. The Russian leader expressed this through the me-
taphor «a Moldova train en route to Europe would lose its Trans-
nistria carriages».
Although the Kremlin has always, at least formally, recognized the territorial
integrity of Moldova under its internationally established borders, in practi-
ce it always had separate channels of relations with Chisinau and Tiraspol,
independently of whether Rogozin was the one responsible for controlling
both. In addition, the continued presence of Russian troops in Transnistria
represents an obvious denial of Moldova’s sovereignty over that region.
Russia’s capacity for penalizing Moldova remains considerable, althou-
gh failure to combine punitive measures (the stick) with incentives for
closer ties to Moscow (the carrot), will surely reinforce Chisinau’s course
towards the EU, even though it will pay a high price for it. The most fa-
vorable scenario for Russia would be if the Moldovan people blame their
own government for the drawbacks of signing the agreement with the
EU, preventing its implementation and improving the expectations of the
Communist Party facing the November elections.
For this, the most appropriate pressure period is between July and Oc-
tober, when the bulk of the Moldovan wine harvest and fruit products
should be exported to Russia, its largest customer. Besides, an estimated
four to five years would be necessary for Moldova to receive gas from Ro-
On 2nd September 2013 the Russian inspection agency announced the rejection of
32
a consignment of 28,000 liters of Moldovan wine, supposedly for sanitary deficiencies,

while threatening to completely ban the import of that product. This is the main export
of Moldova: in 2005 it sold wine to Russia for $ 235 million (50% market share), while in
2012, total revenues had fallen to $ 61 million (10-12% market share).
82
mania, so Chisinau has had to give in to the Russian request not to adopt
EU legislation in this area.
As regards emigrants, remittances sent annually to their country amount
to over $1,000,000,000, and are vital for keeping the economy afloat. Al-
most half of Moldovans in Russia are in an illegal situation, and in recent
months some 20,000 have been repatriated or have been barred entry. In
2014 a new agreement on migration between Moscow and Chisinau is due
to be signed, and certainly the Kremlin will use it as a bargaining tool.33
It is estimated that Russia maintains 1,200 troops in Transnistria, guar-
ding the 20,000 tons of military equipment still stored there, in addition
to the approximately 400 members of the trilateral peacekeeping force.
The role of the OSCE and the 2 + 5 negotiations
The CSCE was involved from the start in resolving this conflict, through its
Mission in Moldova. In fact, the format of the negotiations throughout the
90s included the two conflicting parties (Moldova and the TMR), as well
as Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE itself (CSCE, «Conference», changed its
name to «Organization» in January 1995).
It was within the framework of the Organization during the Istanbul Sum-
mit in 1999, when a timetable was fixed for the departure of the Russian
forces from Transnistria, Moldova and Russia agreeing that this would
occur within three years. In December 2002, at the Oporto Summit, Rus-
sia requested an extension of one year, given the technical difficulties of
removing so much military equipment. However, come December 2003,
withdrawal was interrupted, in retaliation for the Moldovan rejection of
the «Kozak Memorandum».
As from 2004, the negotiating group included the EU and the USA, and
was renamed process 2+5 (Moldova / Transnistria /Russia / Ukraine /
OSCE + EU / USA.), but in 2005, its activity was interrupted, coinciding
with a period of tension between the West and Russia. The process was
formally resumed in September 2011, and in April 2012 a new agree-
ment on «Principles and Procedures» was reached and an agenda for the
negotiations was established with three areas (socio-economic, humani-
tarian and legal issues, and human rights) as part of a package deal that
includes institutional, political and security issues.
In November 2013, the year’s fifth and final round of 2 + 5-format nego-
tiations was held in Kiev (with Ukraine at the head of the OSCE). In sta-
tements after the meeting, the then Ukrainian foreign minister Kozhara
33
SOCOR, Vladimir, «Moldova’s European choice vulnerable to Russian economic le-
verage», Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol.11, No.34, 21 February 2014.
83
praised the dynamism of the negotiations, the resumption of direct dia-

logue between Chisinau and Tiraspol, and practical solutions achieved
for the benefit of both populations, such as modification of the Moldovan
legislation to facilitate free movement through their territory of Transnis-
tria inhabitants with Russian or Ukrainian passports.34
However, all developments threaten to come to nothing, with the unpreceden-
ted crisis in Ukraine caused by the decision of President Yanukovich not to sign
the Association Agreement with the EU. The declaration of independence of
Crimea and its annexation to Russia has revived tensions in the area as the
new leaders in Kiev are restricting the free movement of Russians from Trans-
nistria, and Chisinau leaders are accelerating rapprochement with the EU (and
even NATO) fearing that Moscow intends to annex its rebel territory.
This is exactly what the Tiraspol leaders are asking for, appealing to the
outcome of the 2006 referendum, to which adhere also the Gagauzes
who, as mentioned, held their own inquest about joining Russia.
Almost 22 years after the fighting ended in Transnistria it has not been
possible to reach a political agreement between Chisinau and Tiraspol.
The keys to the conflict studied throughout this chapter can be summari-
zed as follows:
• The administrative borders of the MSSR in the USSR, conver-
ted into international borders of the Republic of Moldova, do not
respond to historical logic and include pockets of ethnic minori-
ties (Ukrainians, Russians, Gagauzes) who felt threatened after
independence.
• Added to the ethnic differences were the interests of the inhabi-
tants of industrial Transnistria (including Moldovans) in maintai-
ning a higher economic status than that of the agricultural regions
in the rest of Moldova.
• Although brief and with a limited number of deaths, the military
phase of the conflict left deep wounds on both banks of the Dnies-
ter, leading to the independent development of two state entities.
• Agreements reached by the five participants (Moldova, Transnistria,
Russia, Ukraine, OSCE) during the 90s had few practical results.
• As from Moldovan rejection of the Kozak 2003 plan, positions mo-
ved further away from each other to the point where Transnistria
voted for independence in 2007.
34
See OSCE Chairperson-in-Office welcomes continued dynamics in 5+2 negotia-
tions, calls for more trust-2011, 25 November 2013, available at http://www.osce.org/
cio/108908.[Consulted: 05 April 2014].
84
• Political parties and Moldovan society are now deeply divided along
ethnic lines regarding the direction of the country’s foreign policy.
• The current Moldovan government has backed the European vec-
tor with the signing of the Association Agreement with the EU,
alienating not only Transnistria, but also Gagauzia and Communist
Party voters.
• The EU has raised the dilemma «either us or Russia» for the coun-
tries of the Eastern Partnership, which has resulted in a strong
polarization,given the economic and social ties that bind them to
Moscow.
With regard to future prospects, in 2011 we stated that «Granting broad
autonomy to Transnistria, the official recognition of minority languages and
the recognition of their right to self determination (should Chisinau decide
someday to cede its sovereignty to Bucharest), appear to be basic resolution
settings….Transnistria should assume that it will not achieve international
recognition of its independence ... the ethnic grievances they claim have be-
come an excuse to hide the economic motives of secession «.35
That is to say that at that moment there appeared to be a solution very
close to that of the «Kozak Memorandum» of 2003, initially accepted by
all parties.
The final rejection of Chisinau took eight years, and subsequent progress
of the 2 + 5 negotiation process has been overshadowed by the current
crisis in Ukraine, which has raised tensions in Eastern Europe to limits
unknown since the end of the Cold War.
Moldova, backed by the EU, has aligned itself with the new authorities
in Kiev, and intends to ensure that the Association Agreement and Free
Trade Agreement come into force in 2014. Brussels considers that this
should be a factor of social cohesion and Chisinau expects that the bene-
fits of rapprochement to Europe will attract Transnistria. However, reali-
ty is obstinate, and not only is Transnistria further away than ever from
Moldova, but Gagauzia also rejects the plan for a new direction in foreign
policy and mainly wants to join Russia.
In short, if the EU and Russia had advanced the creation of a common
area from Lisbon to Vladivostok, harmonizing the Customs Union promo-
ted by Moscow with ties to the Community, the countries of the Eastern
Partnership would not be forced to choose, and could benefit from good
neighborly relationships with both entities.
35
RUIZ, Francisco J., «The Transnistria conflict: the way to a negotiated resolution?»,
IEEE 035/2011 Analysis document, 21 December 2011, available at http://www.ieee.
es/Galerias/fichero/docs_analisis/2011/DIEEEA35-2011ElConflictoDelTransdniester-
FJRG.pdf.[Consulted: 09 April 2014].
85
That scenario is unlikely, so one can only lament missed opportunities and,
to paraphrase Evgeny Shevchuk,36 advocate a civilized and peaceful divor-
ce between Moldova and Transnistria, similar to Czechoslovakia in 1993.
Annex i –tables: geopolitical indicators

& chronology of the conflict
36
See «The best for Moldavia and Transnistria is a civilized divorce», Russia Beyond
the Headlines (1.4.2014), available at http://es.rbth.com/internacional/2014/04/01/
lo_mejor_para_moldavia_y_transdniester_es_un_divorcio_civilizad_38969.html. [Con-
sulted: 09 April 2014].
86
Bibliography
BÁRCENAS, Luis A. y López José A., Los conflictos congelados de la antigua
Unión Soviética, («The Frozen Conflicts of the Former Soviet Union») Ma-
drid: Ministry of Defense, 2011.
BLANC ARTEMIR Antonio, Conflictos territoriales, interétnicos y naciona-
les en los estados surgidos de la antigua Unión Soviética, (Territorial,
Interethnic and Nacional Conflicts in the Status Arising from the Former
Soviet Union») Valencia: Tirant lo Blanc, 2004.
COJOCARU, Natalia, «Nationalism and identity in Transnistria», The Europe-
an Journal of Social Science Research, Vol. 19, No. 3-4, 2006.
FREIRE, María R., Conflict and security in the former Soviet Union: The role
of the OSCE, Burlington: Ashgate, 2003.
87
KEMP, Walter, «Bridge over the Dniestr: confidence-building measures in

Moldova, Issue Brief, International Peace Institute, March 2011.
KING, Charles, «Eurasia Letter: Moldova with a Russian Face», Foreign Pol-
icy, No. 97, winter 1994-1995.
KING, Charles, «The Benefits of Ethnic War: Understanding Eurasia’s Unrec-
ognized States», World Politics, No. 53, 2001.
LAMONT, Neil V., Territorial dimensions of ethnic conflict: the Moldovan case,
1995.
OZHIGANOV, Edward, «The Republic of Moldova: Transnistria and the 14th
Army», in ARBATOV, Alexei et al., Managing conflict in the former Soviet
Union: Russian and American perspectives, Boston: Harvard University,
1997.
POPESCU, Nicu, «The EU in Moldova-Setting conflicts in the neighbour-
hood», EUISS Occasional Paper, No. 60, October 2005.
POPESCU, Nicu, «The EU and Transnistria», UNISCI Discussion Papers, No.
10, January 2006.
ROPER, Steven D., «Regionalism in Moldova: The Case of Transnistria and
Gagauzia», Regional & Federal Studies, Vol. 11, No. 3, 2001.
SELIVANOVA, Irina F. , «Trans-Dnistria», in AZRAEL, Jeremy R. y PAYIN,
Emil A. (Ed.), US and Russia policy-making with respect to the use of
force, RAND Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, 1995.
WATERS Trevor, «Russian peacekeeping in Moldova: Source of stability or
neo-imperialist threat?» in MACKINLEY, John y CROSS, Peter, Regional
peacekeepers: The paradox of Russian peacekeeping, New York: United
Nations University, 2003.
WOLFF, Stefan, TheTransnistrian issue: moving beyond the status-quo, EU
DG for External Policies, October 2012.
88
The arab springs Chapter
four
Summary
The so-called «Arab Springs» constitute a long-term political and so-

cial transition process, the broadest one since the decolonization, as it
spreads from Morocco to the boundaries of the Persian Gulf. It was ge-
nerated from a moral burst, a citizens’ movement that rebelled against
predatory, despotic and deaf governments.
The consolidation of the process, if it is ever reached, will depend on the
balance between the moderate Islamic parties and movements and the
secular associations, with the active or passive complicity of the military
power. The blockade imposed by historic autocracies has been destroyed.
The future shall not be a repetition of the past.
Given this process, the European Union has not developed a strategy over
the long-haul, it has just reacted to catch up with the circumstances, whi-
le the United States has shown its lack of trust over the whole the process
and some regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, or Iran, have
emerged to play a leading role.
Key words
«Arab Springs», political and social transition, citizens’ movement, mode-

rate Islamism, secularism, military power.
89
The arab springs
Introduction
For the sake of dignity. A historic process has been launched for the be-
nefit of human dignity. For over three years a deep changing process has
been going on in our geopolitical environment, a difficult one with an un-
certain outcome.
With a certain sense of poetic euphemism, we have somehow decided
to call it the «Arab Springs» and its change impact and transformation
process range from Morocco to Yemen and Oman that is from our nearest
neighbors on the southern shore of the Mediterranean, a key region for
Spain an Europe in general, to the Persian Gulf. Thus, including both the
«Maghreb» and the «Mashrek»; this Arab and Islamic universe, so close
and so far away, that reaches the borders of the Persian world.
Our intention here has been to offer an approach to this socio political
transformation phenomenon, the broadest and deepest one since the in-
dependence of those countries that took place during the last century.
The so-called «Arab Springs» constitute a long-term historic change.
They are a diverse and always unique political transition process that,
in the end, will conclude with different significant variations. Given their
diversity at origin, their special nature and unique subsequent evolution,
we will use the plural as it better suits their complex diversity and their
uneven development.
If we set aside the noun «spring» for a moment, and we turn our attention
to the adjective »Arab», we have before us a complex world in which we
risk getting lost if we do not take into account a polyhedral reality that
includes more than a dozen countries included in our analysis.
We can speak of an Arab nation if we want to express the existence of
one common language and culture, which additionally coexist with one
deeply-rooted religion, Islam. However, we then have to put the large di-
fferences between the societies and nations that constitute such «Arab
World» on the same level. In the West, in general, we have not been sen-
sitive to these differences and we have stayed within the limits of a sim-
plified unitary vision.
To be able to get closer to understand this historic fact, we should correct
our assessments made on the basis of a Western mindset. At first, during
the early months, the «Arab Springs» movement was overrated, to the
point that it was compared with the Eastern European democratic transi-
tion processes following the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Later on, after three years, we have gone to the opposite end, as we now
underrate the «Arab Springs» and consider them a confused and short-
term process, lacking the capacity to transform the Arab-Muslim world,
and with an uncertain outcome. In fact, we still do not have the sufficient
91
perspective to judge the magnitude and final reach of a change that will,
without a doubt, prove to be quite stark. We are facing a process of politi-
cal and social change that could last five, ten or even more years.
Under no circumstances should we approach the analysis of the Arab
Spring from the academic Euro-centrism of the studies on bourgeois re-
volutions of the 18th and 19th centuries. The circumstances and the histo-
ric context are much different from those times.
We may summarize the historic reality in which these facts are included
in the following way: the disappearance of the Ottoman Empire after the
Great War and the redefinition of its dismembered territories under the
leadership of the European powers, basically, the United Kingdom and
France. The decolonization process that followed, after World War II; the
difficulties undergone in the creation process of the Nations-States, and,
last but not least, the endemic corruption of despotic, predatory govern-
ments, unable to meet the citizens’ social needs, and reluctant to develop
and modernize their countries.
The debate concerning the political and cultural nature of the «Arab
Springs» is only beginning and mere preliminary positions have been for-
mulated but, actual events will soon prove them wrong. In particular, the
alternative definition of such a massive movement of social and political
protest, that considered it as a civic revolt or a political revolution has not
found, until now, a precise definition that would allow and encourage us
to keep using the beautiful expression «Arab Springs» invitingly descri-
bing a hopeful start but failing to include the evolution over the time, of
the different paths followed, and an undefined future.
They have sometimes been considered «aborted revolutions», but this
would be a premature and not very accurate definition. It looks more like
a biased point of view even if it is based on the fact that, in the region,
we have often seen several frustrated modernization attempts, since the
process of independence.
What we have lived through right now is a vigorous moral burst of the
multitude, a big citizens’ movement meant to oppose the scandalous and
unbearable injustice of the depredatory and deaf governments and re-
cover the dignity of individuals. It was never intended as an ideological
revolution based on the western model.
All experts have underlined two elements that were preeminent in the
development of facts. First of all, the prominence of the youth, a segment
that represents the majority of the population in those countries and that
lacks future and in the second place the role of the social media. The
social communication capacities available, thanks to the last generation
technological devices and the satellite television channels in Arabic, have
deprived political regimes of their historical information monopoly. The
92
The arab springs
multiple forms of communications, and mainly the social networks dri-

ven by the youth, gave a new dimension to the traditionally called «Arab
streets» submissive up until then but rebellious today, thus converting it
into a shared political space: the square of democracy, represented by an
icon, the Tahrir Square in Cairo.
We now have enough perspective to explain the deep-seated reasons,
the social movements underlying such a large historical change. Lluis
Bassets offers us an accurate summary, that is shared by most analysts,
when he says that there are five key points to explain what happened:
«the weight of youngsters in these societies; the economical situation
and especially the increase of the cost of the price of food; the dubious
succession of autocrats clinging to power during several decades; the
new forms of political communication and finally the cycle of the geopo-
litical changes and of the shift of the world power in the frame of which
this revolutionary wave took place».1
The «Arab Springs» are a long process in the pursuit of a liberty of their
own, not a transplant of the western world liberty. They are a search that
goes beyond individual autonomy and a better consumerist society with
full opportunities for all, the will to find and confirm moral principles that
are not copied from the West. They are a search for moral cleanliness
for societies that have been dispossessed and humiliated, where corrup-
tion and nepotism succeed systemically. As Tahar Ben Jelloun puts it very
beautifully: «a page of history that is being written day by day, without
previous schedule or premeditation, without traps or tricks.» In the same
way in which poets write, following the inspiration of life, when they rebel
to attain better days».2
We do not know the evolution of a process that is still consolidating. The
most significant example of change of alternatives and paths, and the
most important one in the region, is Egypt. Broadly speaking, three stages
have already occurred in this country, three constitutions and several go-
vernment changes. At first, the broad spectrum popular movement was
able to overthrow President Mubarak and the natural inheritors of the
protest, the Muslim Brotherhood, excluded the rest of the social and po-
litical forces after wining free elections, which gave way to a third stage,
still not sufficiently defined, the Military coup led by Field Marshal, Al-Sisi,
in August 2013.
As a whole, all countries that took part in the «Arab Springs» face an un-
certain future. Social turmoil, political uncertainties, a profound economic
crisis, the marginality of large population layers, ethnical and religious
1
Lluis Bassets, El año de la revolución (The Year of Revolution), Taurus, Madrid, 2012,
p. 331.
2
Tahar Ben Jelloun, La primavera árabe (The Arab Spring), Alianza, Madrid, 2011, p.
49.
93
clashes, and a fragmentation of leadership are some of the main issues

that do not enable us to foresee sociopolitical balance and stability of the
region in the near future.
Let us put forward as a general approach that the necessary balance,
if ever attained, shall derive from the understanding arising from an
agreement between the different parties and associations with an Isla-
mic trend and the secular movement with a liberal trend, with the active
or passive complicity of the armed forces. The transition process in which
these countries are immersed will face a challenge between Islamism
and secularism and the final result shall prove to be democratic, if a ba-
lance is reached between both; otherwise, we will witness the renaissan-
ce of ancient authoritarian and despotic systems under the appearance
of change or cosmetic alterations.
This is because the role that the political Islamism is going to play, with
the complicity of the secular laicism together with the position taken by
the military power, will constitute the relevant elements of the process, of
its hopeful success, or of the possible failure of it all.
Later, the key will be to find ways to improve the life of large population
sectors and social groups currently excluded and that have no perspec-
tives to develop a dignified life and to ensure a future for their families.
The key issue in the constitutional design of these States, emerging from
the transition process, will be the balance between secular laicism and
the moderate Islamism. In other words, an integrating and non discrimi-
native Islamism, like the one implemented by President Mohamed Morsi
in Egypt, is required as an element of coexistence.
The core of the problem, as it is happening in the constituent processes
we have seen, the Tunisian one with a positive result, consists in finding
a balanced solution when dealing with the issue of a confessional or non
confessional Country. And this dubious political Islamism has basically
two models to look at. Turkey and Iran, considering that what we call poli-
tical Islamism is, in no way, a monolithic bloc; on the contrary, it entails a
large diversity due to the different national histories and to the particular
orientations established by its leaders. As Sami Naïr puts it: «In reality,
the issue of laicism constitutes the Gordian knot of the present and future
strategic design». 3
After more than three years, the political Islamism has proven to have the
final leading role in the transition and institutional consolidation process.
It is true that, during the initial stages, due to a lack of information, inte-
llectual inertia, or simply out of a mimetic attitude, international analysts
3
Sami Naïr, La lección tunecina (The Tunisian Lesson), Galaxia Gutenberg, Barcelona,
2011, p. 241.
94
The arab springs
interpreted the facts according to the patterns of the secular European

model. It is also true that this unfocused view was due to the fact that du-
ring the initial demonstrations the secular laicism was stronger than the
voice of the mosques, but this was soon over. At first, the new values that
inspired the revolts were: liberty, justice and dignity. These values entail
political ethics, not a religious dogma. However, the streets and squares
lost prominence and the negotiations started in meeting rooms. This is
when the Islamism proved to have a better position to face the political
tactical stage, with which it was already familiar, and when its advantage
in the electoral organization surfaced.
Islamism did not have a leading role, at the beginning, when overthrowing
the dictators was at stake. But, after that first moment, in the phase when
provisional governments had to be put in place to start the transition pro-
cess, the Islamism was the best positioned political actor. In reality, it
had been acting before that, implementing social measures in favor of
the most disadvantaged urban sectors of society. When the revolts grew
stronger, Islamism stayed in the backstage, waiting for the final result.
Later on, during the elections, it has used its capacity of attraction, thanks
to the consolidated organization established within the social network.
After its electoral success, the agenda of the transition processes has
been more defined by the political Islamism than by the secularism.
Past the first euphoric moments of the movement´s blooming, when the
exit of dictators was demanded, it was soon obvious that political Isla-
mism was the only structured, organized trend, with a wide social base,
as opposed to the secularism that was consistent but plural, generally
fragmented, and often mixing dreams with reality.
We have to add that political Islamism, in general, has been able to adopt
more flexible positions, except in the case of the Muslim Brotherhood in
Egypt, and has reached, in a wide proportion, the discourse of change and
modernity of the popular movement. But, at the same time, it was able to
draw religion beyond the limits of private life and personal convictions,
and to place it as an inspiration for collective life and within constitu-
tionals recognition. The new constitutions will find a balance between
secular values and a moderate Islamism within each country, under the
thorough gaze of the military power.
The fact is that there is a political and cultural duality underlying the
«Arab Springs» that complicates the transition process undergone by
these societies. This is what Sami Naïr summarizes when he says: ït
is a sudden burst occurring in a society that practically, objectively, was
secularized in its most basic structures (economy, institutions, dominant
culture) but in which the secularization, precisely, due to the dictatorial
forms of power, was not mentally registered, except in restricted groups
of youngsters focused on the culture of globalization, businessmen, me-
95
dium classes directly in contact with Western modernity¨4. These socie-

ties are dual and only a few social segments may be considered as secu-
larized, while the large majority lives in a cultural universe led by religion.
The centenary of the Great European War and the World War makes us
widen the focus of our gaze to include, at least, the last century; not be-
cause of the magical figure of the number ¨100¨, but rather because un-
derstanding the «Arab Springs» needs to be placed in the correct histo-
rical perspective, which makes us go back in time at least until that key
moment in world history.
The Great War brought four Empires to an end, among which the Ottoman
Empire, to which the so-called great European powers referred, from the
18th century, as «the sick man of Europe». Its chronic disease spread in
parallel with the hunger of the rest of the European Empires to widen the
areas under their influence and their territorial dominions at the expense
of the Ottoman Empire. The generous distribution of the territories that
formed the Ottoman Empire in favor of the victorious countries took place
in Versailles, as far as Germany was concerned, and under the successive
treaties for the rest of the defeated countries, in order to design the new
map, mainly of Central and Oriental Europe, the Balkans, and the Middle
East. The dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire by the French and the
British was agreed upon in the treaty of Sèvres that was never ratified,
and that was immediately rejected by the Young Turks after the Greek
occupation of Smyrna and finally in 1923, after the Turkish Independence
War, in the treaty of Lausanne in which the new republican Turkey wai-
ved its right to the Arab territories of the old and disappeared Ottoman
Empire, in order to concentrate on the construction of a Turkish Republic.
Their strategic bet changes radically, it has nothing to do anymore with
the leadership of a diverse and widespread empire, but rather with the
construction of a newly-designed ¨Republic¨, a ¨Turkish¨ Republic wi-
thout any Caliphate at the summit of the political power.
If we look thoroughly into the events of the last 25 years, after the fall
of the Betrlin Wall and the disappearance of the USSR, we can see that
the wars in the Balkan Peninsula in the 90s, and the current war in Syria
and Iraq, take place precisely on the edges, on the Western and Eastern
borders of that extinguished Ottoman Empire; with a variation that has
also its ultimate origin in the Paris of 1919: Great Britain hands over the
leadership to the United States, this means that the interests and the lea-
ding role of the, so-called at that time, British Empire, as far as Iraq and
4
Sami Naïr, Por qué se rebelan (Why do they rebel?), Clave intelectual, Madrid, 2013,
p. 190.
96
The arab springs
the Middle East were concerned, became represented and assumed by

the new Empire; the United States of America.
This is the scenario, extending from the Setting Sun of the Maghreb to the
Rising Sun of the Mashriq, at the border of the Persian world, where the
revolts and the political transition processes that we gather under the
warm expression Ärab Springs¨ have taken place. Within the period run-
ning from the Great War to our current days, the distribution of influen-
ce zones took place as well asthe iattempt to establish maneuverable
friendly monarchies in several countries, the difficult administration of
the French mandate in Syria and Lebanon and the British one in Palestine
and, after World War II, the decolonization process with the creation of
independent states under republican military-like regimes or traditional
monarchies. Along this road, the attempt of creating a pan-Arabic polti-
cial community and the classical inevitable alignment within the schemes
of the ¨Cold War¨ went astray.
History, culture, and geography operate on a long-term basis and in the
end they take their revenge. Many countries, drawn with a ruler on the
map out of the remainders of the huge Ottoman Empire that embedded
and tolerated a rich mixture of religions, cultures and ethnic identities,
were not able to consolidate as stable political regimes. No doubt, the
inital design, the distribution by the French and the British, according to
their own interests, of the different influence zones, did not make the job
easy for the future. Without going into details, I only take this opportunity
to remind that the artificial Iraq was created by blending three very di-
fferent provinces of the old Ottoman Empire, that were until then under
different administrations and that were only able to give a false image of
a unified country under the iron dictatorship exerted by Saddam Hussein.
The problems created by the above mentioned distribution remained and
surfaced later, in this case in the form of the claim of liberty and dig-
nity that these people lacked. Meanwhile, and after the decolonization,
the West in general and Europe in particular, established and maintained
relationships of good friendship and neighborhood with autocratic gover-
nments that, under monarchic or republican regimes, were in fact severe
dictatorships respected and accepted for their contribution to the ¨stabi-
lity and security¨ of the Maghreb and the Middle East.
This world, which has enjoyed a false stability since the decolonization
under authoritarian and despotic regimes that have not undertaken the
modernization of society, was questioned in December 2010, when a new
stage of change started, and of which we cannot predict its scope and its
end. However, let us now go to the beginning of these revolts and let us
examine their recent evolution.
The «Arab Springs» start on December 17, 2010, when Mohamed Bouazizi
immolates by setting fire to himself before the building of the local gover-
97
nment of Sidi Bouzid, a little town in the middle of Tunisia. He was a young
university student that had to quit his studies after the death of his father
to take charge of his seven-member family and who, like many others in
the Maghreb, turned to be a street vendor of fruits and vegetables. His de-
cision to immolate represents a supreme gesture of protest against the
behavior of the local police that, after slapping him and spittng on him,
seized his cart accusing him of public disorder.
Mohamed seeked a way to die that would be recognized, that would be
useful for others and he made it. It could be considered like an irrelevant
fact, a trivial event, but his death triggered a massive citizens´protest
that started being local and soon national and that, within one month, on
the January 15, 2011 caused the downfall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben
Ali, who took refuge in Saudi Arabia after 25 years of despotic power.
His sacrifice was the spark that set fire to a spontaneous revolution in
which no party intervened in its beginnings. Not even the active Tunisian
syndicate, the UGTT, was present during the first days, even if in the final
phase it attempted to find its own place. The Islamists did neither have a
leading role, as they were not well organized. The demands were based
on democratic and secular issues and did not leave room for the islamists
of Ennahda who decided to wait for a later opportunity, this strategy being
later copied by the Moslem Brotherhood in Egypt. Sami NaÏr describes
the situation precisely through the eyes of a privileged observer and ex-
pert: ¨the slogans of the demonstrators are secular: they claim freedom
of expression, of organization, of opinion; political pluralism, respect for
human rights, and the end of the police dictatorship; in other words, the
respect for their dignity, more than anything else.¨5
It all happens in the context of a serious degradation of the regime, co-
rrupt without limits, colloquially called ¨the clan of the Ben Ali-Trabelsi¨.
The contagious effect is immediate, it is represented by tweets that
spread througout the countries of the Arab-Muslim world: Äll Arab
leaders observe Tunisia with fear, all the Arab citizens observe Tunisia
with hope and solidarity¨. This is the general mood in which the «Arab
Springs» were born. Finally, there is a collective feeling that freedom can
be achieved with a determined citizen mobilization, because what is no
longer an inexorable curse is the despotism of the national rulers.
After Tunisia, the following relevant movement happens in Egypt. On
January 25, Tahrir Square in Cairo witnesses a large demonstration
against the omnipotent president Hosni Mubarak, that is strongly repres-
sed, but the example spreads to other cities of the country.
5
Sami Naïr, Por qué se rebelan (Why do they rebel?), Clave intelectual, Madrid, 2013,
p. 162.
98
The arab springs
The so-called Ärab street¨ that has been historically manipulated by the
rulers and has been used according to their own will, has turned into a
citizens´ movement that claims the right to democratic freedom.
We have to underline that, after the first few days, the Egyptian army, a
relevant player throughout the process, values positively the protest mo-
vement, considers it legitimate, and announces that it will not use force
against demonstrators. Both in Tunisia and in Egypt, the army refuses
from the very beginning to use the repressive intervention that is being
requested from it.
The movement is fast and unstoppable. The spark that caught fire in Tu-
nisia has spread throughout the abundant flamable material available all
around it, and the fire will extend from Morocco to Oman. On February 11,
Hosni Mubarak abandons power, he runs away and seeks refuge in his
mansion of Sharm El-Sheikh, on the Red Sea; thirty years of dictatorship
have come to an end. The militaries seize the power and Field Marshal
Tantawi pays his respect to the victims of repression.
In Tahrir square a magical moment unfolded that will remain as a part
of History, a moment during which the impossible became real, during
which a long yearned for democracy was within a hand’s reach and could
be felt in everyone’s heart. If I may, I would like to insert here a «nok-
ta», a joke that was told in Egypt and that Tahar Ben Jelloun reproduces:
Mubarak dies and arrives in Heaven. He is received by his two prede-
cessors, Presidents Anuar El Sadat and Gamal Abdel Nasser. Both ask
him: did they shoot you or poison you? Mubarak answers: «I was killed
by Facebook!»
In Egypt, the citizens’ movement born in a small Tunisian town, acquires
another dimension and extends strongly to other countries. The process
that was initiated in Tunisia will reach, at different extents, the whole Ma-
ghreb, from Morocco to Libya, and the Mashreq, the East, including Egypt,
Syria, and Jordan, and, from Yemen to Oman, all of the countries of the
Arab Gulf.
We have to point out that Islamism, as such, with its structure and orga-
nization has not played a relevant role, neither in Tunisia nor in Egypt. It
was never in the front row of the citizens’ forceful wave that overthrew
the dictators.
The revolt movements, that had a revolutionary touch when it started,
were led by a generation of young people, including women, that is mainly
urban, educated, without professional horizons, abandoned by its rulers,
together with social strata that are well-off economically but marginali-
zed by the corruption of power and that get organized through the social
networks through their mobile phones and other digital devices.
99
The movement acquires a regional dimension; it affects the whole uni-

verse included in the Maghreb, the Mashreq and the core of countries
forming the Middle East, especially Syria.
The tide grows and expands simultaneously in Manama (Bahrain), Sanaa
(Yemen), Cyrenaica (Libya) with protests against Gaddafi. The Algerian
government revokes the state of exception under which demonstrations
were forbidden since 1991. Even the Sultan of Oman, Qabus Bin Said,
carries out a large renewal of the government. On February 27, 2011
demonstrations take place in numerous Arab countries (Jordan, Yemen,
Bahrain, Tunisia, Egypt, Syria and Libya) to demand profound political
changes.
In only three months, all Arab countries from Morocco in the Atlantic to
the Persian Gulf Emirates are, to varying degrees, involved in the tide of
citizens´ revolt that demand political reforms from their governments.
Two rulers oppose bluntly to their demands: El-Assad in Syria and Gad-
dafi in Libya.
In Libya, an International coalition led by the United States, the United
Kingdom and France, the same countries that had the leading role in re-
lation to the Treaty of Paris after World War I, and that on this occasion
included five Arab countries, launched the attack against the regime of
Colonel Gaddafi, under Resolution 1973 of the Security Council of the Uni-
ted Nations.
The Libya Contact Group included the UN, The Arab League, NATO, The
European Union, the Islamic Confederation of Nations, and the Gulf Coo-
peration Council. Nevertheless, in the case of the European Union, an im-
portant fracture occurred due to the refusal of Germany to take part in the
military operation. Germany abandoned its partners, the European Union
and the United States, and aligned with the position of Russia and China.
It presented itself before the world, not as a NATO member, but rather as
an ally, though circumstantially, of the emerging countries.
The civil war in Libya, with the military intervention of an international
coalition, brings the regime to an end, but leaves the internal confronta-
tions open. On October 20, 2011, Colonel Gaddafi died summarily execu-
ted without trial, a bad omen for the future of the country. It is important
to remember that there was no institutionalized power in Libya, just the
personal and exclusive power of Colonel Gaddafi. His fall meant the fall of
the whole regime because he was never interested in setting state struc-
tures; consequently, the ashes that remained after the collapse were lo-
cal and regional militias, many of them contaminated by radical Islamic
groups.
Tribal and sectarian confrontations were also long and complex in Ye-
men, where in several occasions, President Ali Abd-allah Saleh accep-
100
The arab springs
ted to hand over power and to start a pacific political transition process.
Things did not turn out this way, on the contrary, the country fell into ge-
neralized chaos, tribal confrontations, deaths during demonstrations, and
even attacks from al-Qaeda against the Yemeni army, in an attempt to sei-
ze power. Eventually, on November 23, 2011, the President handed over
the power after reaching an agreement with the opposition by which he
ensured his own immunity.
One year after the birth of the movement in a modest town of Tunisia, an
assessment can be made, and changes that were then unthinkable, can
now be contemplated. Four dictators have disappeared: Ben Ali is in exile,
Mubarak in jail, Gaddafi was executed, and Saleh is no longer in power.
But other facts are even more relevant. On October 23, the first free
elections took place in Tunisia and led to the victory of the Islamist par-
ty, Ennahda. Even the conservative monarchies have made moves. The
King of Saudi Arabia, Abdullah Ibn Abdulaziz, announces that in the local
elections taking place in 2015, women will have the right to elect and be
elected. In Morocco, King Mohamed VI, announced profound constitutional
changes in reply to the demands of the young people of the 20 February
Movement and also anticipated parliament elections.
The regimes have fallen in the following four countries with various de-
grees of violence and drama involved in the clashes: Tunisia, Egypt, Ye-
men, and Libya.
Syria continues in a spiral of increasing insecurity, with several intertwi-
ning civil wars and a President who has decided to fight desperately to
remain in power, in addition to an international blockade led by the great
powers that are reconstructing, in a certain way, the strategies of the Cold
War. A clear example of this blockade has been staged in an evident man-
ner during the failed Geneva talks. The modest achievement of the Confe-
rence has been the commitment of creating a humanitarian passageway
for the evacuation of 500 families trapped for more than 18 months in the
besieged city of Homs. The only result, in the words of the U.N. mediator
Brahimi, is to achieve the fact that «both parties get accustomed to sit in
the same room.» More information on the subject may be found in the
specific study on Syria, included in this volume.
In Tunisia, we have a successful case that allows us to set forward the
path to be followed in other transition processes that remain uncertain.
Due to its importance within the Arab world, Egypt is one of the key exam-
ples for the rest of the countries involved in the «Arab Springs» and, at the
same time, its future presents many unknown issues.
101
After the initial excitement, the situation in virtually all countries invol-
ved, has turned into a volatile political instability, with obstructions in the
transition process and even counter-revolutionary processes. Overall, the
«security» situation implies risks that have become a serious problem in
the most fragile countries, such as Yemen, Libya, Syria, or Iraq, making
room for the presence of various kinds of jihadist groups.
The Arab monarchies have better endured the movement caused by the
revolts and none have been defeated, although it was necessary for Saudi
Arabia to intervene in Bahrain to maintain the regime. Monarchies enjoy
an added sense of legitimacy for their deep cultural roots and the tra-
ditional relationship in Islam of political power and religion, but at the
same time, it should be noted that they have proved to be sensitive to
some extent and capable, from the outset, of introducing political refor-
ms and adopting social measures in favor of their subjects. In the case
of the Gulf monarchies, they have injected enormous financial resources
into the society. However, the basic problems remain and the populations
of these monarchies shall maintain their expectations and demands for
further reforms.
In Morocco, King Mohammed V, keeping his promise, has carried out a
constitutional reform, although it wouldn’t be possible to consider the
text like anything more than a granted charter, in any case, the monarch
has put limits to his exorbitant powers by giving more prominence to his
Government and to the Parliament. As in other countries, the legislati-
ve elections held after the reforms, were won by the moderate Islamists
from the Justice and Development Party. The pending issue is precisely
the balanced social and economic development of the country and also
the in-depth reform of the governance model built around the Palace.
The Saudi Arabian Dynasty started the succession process without taking
steps towards an overt generational change so far and it should find a
frame of coexistence with its Shia minority accused by the rulers of ser-
ving foreign interests. The king was born in 1923 and he appointed an
heir born in 1933. The Dynasty is still in the first generation: all kings and
crown-princes were sons of the founder of the dynasty. Its intent to re-
main as a first-level regional power is going through decisive moments.
Possibly, the Emirate of Qatar is the one to have better taken advantage
of the Ärab Springs¨ to obtain a better status, even better than the one it
already had, on the international stage, as it showed increasing indepen-
dence from Saudi Arabia and a capacity of leadership that it is ready to
use without shame. Not having special internal problems, the Emirate got
involved in the civil war in Syria to support the rebels and to participate
actively in the dialogue and the mediation, acting as a recognized actor
with a regional influence.
102
The arab springs
Tunisia is a small country, it shows the right path, and it has become today
a model of a successful political transition. The country has gone through
serious tensions and moments of blockade, but eventually it turned out to
be an example in contrast with its neighbors of Libya and Egypt. The most
difficult moment occurred in February and July 2013, when two leftist
members of parliament, Chokri Belaid and Mohamed Brahmi, were killed
by Islamic extremists. Nonetheless, eventually, the approval of the Cons-
titution is the milestone in its road sheet leading to the completion of a
democratic transition. Tunisia finally has its first democratic Constitution,
fifty-seven years after reaching independence.
It was not an easy task and two long years have elapsed with moments of
great tension, but finally a vast agreement has been reached. Initially, the
Islamists of Ennahda proposed another text, with little differences with
respect to the one of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. The basic founda-
tion of the text was the Sharia, the Islamic law, as a source of law, which
means a constitution based on a theocratic model. Concessions were
made due to the pressure exerted by the civil society and the Islamists
understood that the Tunisian people wanted to evolve towards modernity,
to have a fundamental law that separates Religion from the State.
After a long delay, the final steps to approve the Constitution were taken
in the Fall of 2013, thanks to the dialogue and understanding reached
between the Islamist Party, Ennahda, and the secular parties with the
fruitful mediation of the powerful syndicate UGTT. This very important
agreement included the resignation of the government headed by an Isla-
mists Ali Laarayedh who was substituted by an independent figure.
The steps taken constitute an understanding platform fit for a 21st- Cen-
tury society.
The Constitution text guarantees, not only the liberty of religion that also
exists in other countries, but also the liberty of conscience and believes, it
proclaims equality of the right to believe or not to believe, the possibility
to renounce the Islamic Faith and to change religions, and at the same
time the equality between woman and man.
The National Constituent Assembly (NCA), in which the moderate Islamist
party has obtained 40% of the 217 seats, has set a path of balance and
consensus between Islamists and secularists, a keystone for an inclusive
and democratic transition.
In spite of the good perspective for the future of Tunisia, the Islamist lea-
der, Rashid Ghanouchi, in a recent interview to the Spanish newspaper
«El País» (01/22/2014) warned that the process is not free of obstacles
and that negative surprises may arise. The main one could be terrorist
action. In the mountains of Chaambi, in the West of the country, near the
103
borders with Algeria, a small group of Jihadists have been resisting army
assaults for more than one year.
Egypt went through a revolutionary turmoil without ever reaching the
desired stability. The initial success of the revolution and the first free
elections that made Morsi reach the presidency ended up with a state
coup that was justified by the intolerant and arbitrary way in which the
Muslim Brotherhood exerted power.
The process for the drafting of a new Constitution in 2014, the third text in
three years, has been extremely limited with very little participation, as
political leaders were excluded from any active, or at least consultative,
role. It has been drafted by a Commission of Experts that was chosen by
the provisional government that was presided by Hazem al Beblawi, a ve-
teran military from the social-democrat party, appointed in July 2013 af-
ter the fall of President Morsi. Writing the text faced multiple difficulties,
including a debate on what Egypt is, and it also consumed endless hours
of controversy between the fifty members of the Commission. The final
agreement deserves to be considered because of its exceptionality, as far
as constitutional law is concerned: Ëgypt is a Nile´s gift to the Egyptians,
and the Egyptians´ gift to humanity¨.
The constitutional text does not seem to satisfactorily resolve the pro-
blems and the malfunctions that afflict Egypt. The Constitution of 2012
does not answer the political and civic demands that were set forth in Ta-
hrir Square and therefore its detractors classified it as Islamist. However,
we must recognize that President Mohamed Morsi won two elections: the
presidential election that brought him to power and the one that ratified
his Islamist Constitution, but he never reached a social consensus. He
faced a wide secular opposition, the urban middle classes and most of
all, the de facto powers: the judicial power and the military power meant
to guarantee the country´s security.
The text of 2014 reproduces, inversely, the previous and permanent un-
balanced powers of the state, imposed by the Muslim Brotherhood.
This Constitution, the last one of this permanent constituent process that
lasted more than three years incurs in a new disequilibrium, this time in
favor of the de facto military power that rules the country, to the point of
being qualified by the overthrown Mubarak as ¨magnificent¨ and deser-
ving his own favorable vote, if his health condition allowed him. The Cons-
titution has been passed by referendum with the participation of 38% of
voters and with a result of 98% of affirmative votes.
The social and political reality prevails; in reality nothing has changed
during these years. In 2014, Egypt is as Islamist as it was three years
ago, and the military power, after the interim in the government of the
Muslim Brotherhood under the presidency of Morsi, has regained power
104
The arab springs
and influence. We are, in another context, back to the beginning of the

Arab Spring. The military power overthrew Mubarak and the same mili-
tary power, rejuvenated and with a new legitimacy obtained from its role
as an arbitrator, is back in power. Actually, in 2014, Egypt is more military
than in 2010, because even if the path was circular and went from the
deposition of a military born in 1928, General Hosni Mubarak, to the em-
powerment in 2013 of a military, Field Marshal, Al-Sisi, born in 1954, the
military power rejuvenates in one generation.
What has happened, like in all counterrevolutionary processes, is a social
polarization that transfers to the exercise of the political power. On one
side, the army with the police forces, was able to agglutinate the judicial
power, that is very important in Egypt after its professionalization under
the British Mandate, and the business sectors, the media, part of the in-
tellectuals and the urban middle class. On the other side, we have the
Muslim Brotherhood that has been isolated and marginalized to the point
that it was declared illegal. The polarization appears between militia and
brotherhood, between the military power and the Muslim Brotherhood
organization and structure. This fracture leaves a large portion of urban
and professional strata and of young people without means of expres-
sion, unsatisfied with the evolution of the events. But the reality of the
country is something else. The pro- Abdul Fattah demonstrators, when
facing Morsi´s supporters, express in the following way: ¨we represent
one people and you represent another one¨. This expression is reduc-
tionist and simplistic, moreover, it ignores the diversity of the Egyptian
society.
With this social and political polarization, a Constitution based on agree-
ment like in Tunisia, could never be drafted and approved. The constitu-
tional text establishes that the main source of inspiration of the legislator
is the Ïslamic Sharia¨.
In any case, the main novelty of the constitution consists in forbidding the
political parties based on religion and the ones of military or quasi-mi-
litary nature. This eliminates the possibility for the Muslim Brotherhood
to exist as a political organization. This outlaws the political organization
that has proved to be the largest one in the country. The Armed Forces
strengthen themselves and protect their own interests. The military bu-
dget is left out of the political control and depends exclusively on the Na-
tional Defense Council.
Meanwhile, in the streets, there are many strikes involving multiple sec-
tors: the textile industry, the public transportation, the health care and
even the police. These are the fields in which Field Marshal Al-Sisi´s new
regime has to prove its capacity: developing economic sectors, creating
jobs, providing opportunities for the youth and consolidating the basic
public services.
105
The role of external players
The transition processes undergone, with different degrees of success,

at a national level have had important geopolitical consequences within
the Middle East as a whole. This should not be a big surprise, on the con-
trary, it is the result of the consequences of the importance of the events
experienced for more than three years, during which all tensions have
been reactivated: the sectarian ones between Shia and Sunna, the ethnic
ones between the Arab world and the Persian world, the ones between
the different opposed trends within the wide panorama of Sunnism, and
what is even more relevant, the clash between autocratic regimes that
feel threatened and the emerging democratic movements that are trying
to emerge in a region governed during decades, since its independence,
by authoritarianism and dictatorship.
The question we should ask ourselves is whether a currently authorita-
rian and even despotic Arab-Muslim world can evolve towards democra-
cy. The answer is yes, and the example is Tunisia.
However, with all our respect to Egypt´s huge importance, the key coun-
try in the new geopolitical dimension of the region is Syria, as it has beco-
me the main element of the Middle East, with enormous implications for
regional powers like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.
Syria refused to learn any lesson from the processes that occurred in
other ¨Springs¨ countries. Moreover, Syria´s President, Bashar Al-assad,
in power since 2000, followed the procedures inherited from his father:
tough repression and maintaining the power without concessions.
The Ärab Springs¨ have helped France to gain a renewed implication in
the region. Thus, in the case of Libya, France reacted with determination
and leadership, maybe because it wanted to make the world forget its ab-
sence and how it turned a blind eye to Tunisia. As for the United States, in
Libya, it has successfully tested its role of manager from the backstage,
thus leaving the front of scene to the most committed European countries
which are none other than the old colonial powers.
All the regional powers in the area are taking advantage of the situa-
tion to strengthen their positions, create fire walls and restructure their
alliances.
Having Syria as its neighbor, Turkey is seizing the opportunity to show its
weight in the region and to set influence areas, struggling firmly with the
other two powers with a strategic interest in the region: Iran and Saudi
Arabia. The Saudi Dynasty is aware of the new game that has started in
the Middle East after the agreements reached with Teheran over the pa-
cific use of it nuclear potential. Saudi Arabia acts as a firm barrier against
the revolutionary wave, as it showed from intervention in Bahrain, and the
106
The arab springs
same time it struggles to maintain its position as a regional power. Both

Turkey and Saudi Arabia propose their Islamist political models as stable
regimes as opposed to possible civil dictatorships.
All along this period of time, the Arab League has taken action and has
recovered its leading role. In the case of Libya, it has supported the United
Nations Resolution backing the armed intervention that led Gaddafi’s re-
gime to an end. It has expelled Syria, a charter member, from the organi-
zation due to its reiterated aggressions against the civil population. It has
approved a set of economic sanctions against Syria, as the country would
not accept international observers meant to protect the civil population,
with the favorable vote of Iraq and Lebanon.
Monarchs are the most active representative within the Arab League, as
it is the case for the King of Jordan who has repeatedly asked Al-Assad to
step down and to allow a pacific transition. In general, the Arab League,
with its monarchs on the front line, has tried to avoid revolutionary brea-
ches by encouraging reformist processes to take place without political
break up.
However, the geopolitical implications of the «Arab Springs» affect the
Arab World as a whole, and this produces the modification of extremely
important positions. In this regard, the most relevant fact was the agree-
ment reached with Iran in the frame of the Plan of Action for the reorien-
tation of its nuclear program that came into effect on January 20, 2014.
Iran has frozen some of the activities of its nuclear plan, the ones aiming
to obtain nuclear weapons in the future, and is only allowed to enrich
uranium up to 5% of pureness. In exchange, it has obtained the lifting of
the economic sanctions that had condemned the country to international
ostracism. The negotiation was held with the five permanent members of
the Security Council of the United Nations, plus Germany and the Euro-
pean Union.
After three decades of heavy tension and strong confrontations, the
Agreement represents a key rapprochement between Washington and
Teheran that affects the balance in the Middle East and is not seen with
great calm by Saudi Arabia. Iran is changing and it does not seem to con-
sider in her strategic horizon the possibility of a confrontation with the
United States. Moreover, in spite of the fact that it is widely considered
that Russia deserves the diplomatic success related to Syria, the truth is
that it was Iran that convinced Damascus to destroy its chemical arsenal.
This avoided a military intervention of the International Community and
an irreversible escalation of the conflict.
In conclusion, both Russia and the United States, each from its own pers-
pective, want to integrate Iran in a new regional security system. Europe
is an interested witness but it restricts itself to a supporting role. The
107
regional powers, such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, intend to be seen

as relevant actors in the area. All this constitutes an example of deep,
long-range geopolitical changes that are taking place back-stage of the
«Arab Springs».
The effects of the «Arab Springs» can also be seen in Iraq, especially in
relation to the Syrian example. Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki, who was
sometimes considered as the puppet of Iran, was not able to achieve the
national reconciliation and the stability of the country in order to reach its
economic recovery and was deposed.
The Iraqi starting point is dramatic as reconstruction and reconciliation
have to be carried out from scratch, because Paul Bremer, the American
administrator appointed after the fall of Saddam Hussein, destroyed the
regime by applying politics that intended to remove all vestiges of Baa-
thism, a strategy similar to the one applied to Germany after its defeat
in 1945. He expelled more than a million experienced men. This politi-
cal purge stands at the roots of the country’s extreme vulnerability, as it
is subject to the confessional tensions between Sunni and Shia Muslims
and the ethnic ones between Arabs and Kurds, all this together with a
situation of lack of governance.
The Sunni combats in Iraq have surpassed the national context and it now
affects a larger geopolitical scene. To them, the enemy is not only the Ira-
qi Prime Minister any more, it is the new Shia axis formed by Damascus,
Baghdad, and Teheran.
The new Egypt ruled by Field Marshal Al-Sisi turns discretely its eyes
towards Russia. This circumstance is evidenced by the new agreement
reached for the sale of arms to Egypt, by the visit of the authorities of
Cairo visit to Moscow in order to develop the bilateral cooperation and
by the support of President Putin to the candidacy of the Field Marshal to
the Presidency of the Republic. Thus, with the applause of citizens who
approve regaining Russia’s friendship.
We should not forget that the United States and Europe, on one side, and
Russia, on the other, are experiencing a dull but deep confrontation, very
much like a new «Cold War», and that proves to be especially intense in
the crisis of Ukraine.
Beyond showing its support to the «Arab Springs» and being glad of the
success of the changes and the stability achieved in some countries, the
European Union has not designed a long-term strategy and has always
moved in the wake of the events. However, it has many reasons to get
more deeply implied. The fist one is our geographic vicinity, followed by
the historic colonial precedents and by the current migratory movements,
due to which large communities coming from these countries, have se-
ttled in Europe (the Muslim community in Europe amounts to about 13
108
The arab springs
million people). Europe, the European Union, through its institutions, pro-
vides theoretical support to the democratization process and waits for a
moderate Islamism to gain a leading role in the political stability and to
stop the surge of jihadism. The European Union has experienced a deep
feeling of relief to be freed from the fact that is has no more the need,
more and more uncomfortable, with a number of dictators that were
blocking the transformation and modernization of their societies and
that stepped with arrogance on the human rights. However, the European
Union has, ahead of it, the enormous task to redesign its politics towards
these countries and to create solid and credible cooperation instruments
in the frame of a recognized and stable vicinity relationship that would
include a solution to the migratory flows.
As for the United States, they show signs of mistrust towards the tran-
sition processes and they do not rule out their worries that, in a second
phase, the countries involved in the Arab Spring may reconsider their
position with regard to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, a major issue for
the security and the stability of the Middle East. To them, the position of
the Army in Egypt is vital, as it guarantees the peace with Israel. Israel is
in the background, it constitutes the final horizon on which the successive
images of the «Arab Springs» reflect; all in all, it is the core that defines
the positions and the commitments of the United States in the region.
The process of change boosted by the citizens’ mobilizations that we

have called the «Arab Springs», is still going on, according to its own deep
nature, a long-term process demanding political rights, civil liberties
and social and political reforms. Its transformation drive, unseen in the
Arab-Muslim World, is not over; it is still open, although in many countries
it has revealed limits difficult to surmount, for the time being.
The widespread autocracies of the Arab World have proved to be more
fragile than expected, but neither the governments arising from long
transition processes have been able to consolidate their stability and to
undertake deep changes.
We have witnessed a good dialogue and consensus path in Tunisia, no
doubt the best example of success, from which we may learn a lot in the
future.
On the contrary, we have hopeless cases Such is the case of Libya that
adds up to its internal conflict the lack of State structures, as dictator
Gaddafi never wanted to build his power on rational structures, but rather
on his manipulation of tribal diversity. The oil control (70% of the GDP)
opposes the central Government with the local leaders and the armed
militias that are blocking several ports in the country. Neither the Go-
109
vernment nor the General National Congress holds acknowledged power

and the effective control of the country as a whole, while tribal divisions
remain. In this context of misrule and fragmentation a constitutional text
has to be agreed upon.
The authoritarian monarchies have a long way to go to deepen the feeble
reforms they have started, even in Morocco, where an effort has been
made and positive steps have been taken, the ruling system still needs
to reform the structure existing close to the Palace, to order the ruling
system and to complete the reforms related to the status of women and
to the family law, and also to allow the economic growth to favor the po-
pulation as a whole and not only the traditional sectors.
The Saudi monarchy is the one that has felt most uneasy and troubled
by the process initiated in the Arab World. Besides its internal renovation
it has to face the surge of the Emirate of Qatar that appears like a new
regional and very active leadership.
In Egypt, an enormously important country, the 2011 revolution led for
the first time in history to the election of a civilian to power. Now, after
three years, we have come full circle back to the initial position. The new
regime of Field Marshal Al-Sisi has still huge tasks ahead: he needs to in-
tegrate those he has excluded claiming that they were terrorists and who
represent an important percentage of the population, to unite the society
as a whole, to avoid polarization and to establish a currently non-existing
social and economic model that he can offer to the population, especially
to the urban youth, and all this does not match very well with the Consti-
tution he has implemented.
With an open process going on, in this context of political fragility, of frus-
trated hopes, the political key issue will be the challenge between Isla-
mism and secularism. If a balance is reached, democracy and stability
will prevail. We should not forget, however, that the radical jihadism is
still alive and that it will continue to use violence and to represent a threat
for the area.
However, nothing will remain the same in the Arab- Muslim World after
the «Arab Springs». The past is gone for ever. The process that was initia-
ted is still going on and we have now entered a new phase of the always
difficult history of that wide part of the world that extends from the Medi-
terranean to the Persian Gulf and Central Asia.
Nothing has come to an end; on the contrary, everything is open. A new
Arab-Muslim World is moving, with hesitant steps, with great mysteries,
but the blockade created by the autocratic governments has been destro-
yed and the future shall not be a repetition of the past, it will be a path to
travel in pursuit of dignity.
110
The arab springs
Chronology of the «arab springs»

• 12/17/2010 Mohamed Bouazizi immolates himself in Sidi Bouzid,
Tunisia.
• 01/15/2011 El Abidine Ben Ali is toppled in Tunisia.
• 01/25/2011 Great demonstration in Cairo against President Hosni
Mubarak.
• 02/11/2011 Hosni Mubarak forced to step down after 30 years in
power.
• 02/27/2011 Revolts spread in Jordan, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria and
Libya.
• 03/17/2011 The UN Security Council approves Resolution 1973 on
Libya.
• 10/20/2011 Summary execution of Libyan leader, Colonel Gaddafi.
• 10/23/2011 First free elections held in Tunisia.
• 11/12/2011 The Arab League suspends the participation of Syria
in the Organization.
• 11/23/2011 Ali Abdallah relinquishes power in Yemen and obtains
immunity in exchange.
• 06/17/2012 Election of a civil President, Mohamed Morsi for the
first time in Egypt.
• 01/27/2014 The Parliament approves the new Constitution in
Tunisia.
• 06/03/2014 In Egypt, field Marshal Al-Sisi is elected President.
Bibliography
Tahar Ben Jelloun, La primavera árabe,(The Arab Spring) Alianza, Madrid,
2011.
Albert Garrido, La sacudida árabe, (The Arab Jolt) Icaria Editorial, Barce-
lona, 2013.
El Houssine Majdoubi, Revolución por la dignidad en el mundo árabe, (A
Revolution for dignity in the Arab World) Icaria Editorial, Barcelona,
2012.
Luís Bassets, El año de la revolución, (The Year of the Revolution) Taurus
Editorial, Madrid, 2012.
Sami Naïr, ¿Por qué se rebelan?, (Why do they rebel?) Clave Intelectual,
Madrid, 2013.
Alaa al Aswany, Las claves de una revolución inevitable, (The Key Points of
an Inevitable Revolution) Galaxia Gutenberg, Madrid, 2011.
111
Syria: from civil war to regional conflict Chapter
five
Summary
Despite the huge humanitarian tragedy that the Syrian civil war is pro-
ducing, nothing seems to indicate that a negotiated settlement may be
forthcoming. The armed violence overflow, that profoundly impacts nei-
ghboring countries, now indicates that the Syrian civil war has become a
regional conflict, affecting the whole Middle East. This chapter is aimed
to present some factors of the Syrian conflict to understand its current
situation and evolution.
Key words
Syria, Middle East, Assad, war, geopolitics, sectarianism.
113
Syria: from civil war to regional conflict
Introduction
The Syrian civil war has gone on for longer than forty months, and as
expected, at this time the humanitarian catastrophe has acquired fri-
ghtening proportions. According to the UN, as of July 2014, the conflict
had caused the death of more than 150,000 people and injuries to some
680,000. More than 9.3 million Syrians need help in the interior of the
country, including at least 6.5 million displaced persons.1 In addition,
three million people have taken refuge in neighboring countries.2 Also,
the violation of human rights is common, and there have been reports
of war crimes, disappearance, torture or the use of chemical weapons3.
But beyond the dramatic humanitarian consequences, the Syrian conflict
has evolved on three levels: internal, regional and international. In the
first, victories on the military and diplomatic fields indicate a strengthe-
ning of the position of the regime led by President Bashar Al-Assad, in
such a way that as of today his overthrow does not seem likely. This situa-
tion is explained by the unconditional support provided by his allies and
the fragmentation of the rebel opposition.
At the same time, there has been an overflow of armed violence due
to the formidable rise of jihadists groups, deeply affecting neighboring
countries, especially Lebanon and Iraq. This spread of jihadism indicates
that Syria’s civil war has become a regional conflict, which affects the
whole of the Middle East. The recent, although limited for the time being
- according to the information available at the time of completing this
contribution - US military intervention in Iraq against Sunni radicals is
irrefutable proof of the expansion of hostilities across the region.
Therefore, in an area where the interests of the great powers collide, the
implications of this conflagration for global geopolitics can be perceived -
perhaps it would be more appropriate to say «global geo-economics» as
the question is actually the «mobilization of the political power to achieve
economic goals through a combination of rivalry and cooperation 4»–.
1
UN chief appoints Staffan de Mistura as special envoy for Syria crisis. UN News Cen-
tre.10.07.2014.Available at http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=48244#.
U8pK5XmKC00
2
Syria Regional Refugee Response. The UN Refugee Agency.17.08.2014.Available at
http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php.
3
Council of the United Nations. Report on the independent international commission
of inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic.A/HRC/25/65.12.02.2014.
4
Grevi, Giovanni. «Geoeconomics and global governance». Included in Ana Mar-
tiningui and Richard Youngs (eds.).Challenges for European foreign policy in 2012. A
geo-economics Europe.2011.FRIDE.Available at http://www.fride.org/descarga/Cha-
llenges_for_European_Foreign_Policy_in_2012_Esp.pdf.
115
On this argument, this chapter, which is a continuation of three previous

editions of this Geopolitical panorama of conflicts, 5 provides a brief ex-
planation of the evolution of the Syrian civil conflict since its inception,
explains the major events which took place in the period between Sep-
tember 2013 to September 2014 and points out some trends that may
characterize this bloody conflict in the short and medium term.
At the beginning of the Arab revolt, few thought the Syrian regime, which
had been in power since 1966, would be influenced by the cries of the
people, as had already happened in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Bahrain.
However, contrary to expectations, in March 2011, some peaceful pro-
tests took place calling for political and social changes that were harshly
suppressed by the Syrian security apparatus. During the following mon-
ths, the spiral of violence shattered the existing socio-political balance
and created a huge humanitarian tragedy.
From those first protests to early September 2013, the civil war went
through several phases. At first, the Government forces used their
overwhelming superiority and carried out brutal and repressive work
throughout the country. However, once foreign support was received, wi-
thout which Assad would have ended with the riots, allowed the opposi-
tion to spread the insurrection over large areas of the country, especially
in those where the Sunni population is the majority. Although they did not
achieve complete control over any of the large cities of the country, the
advance of the opposition forced Government security forces to concede
ground and concentrate their forces at the main bases.
In the first quarter of 2013, no party was able to achieve a military victory
and the victories and defeats were happening on both sides, which indi-
cated that the situation was at an impasse. 6
Under these circumstances in the summer of 2013, Assad is aware of the
fragmentation of the opposition and decides to change his strategy. Su-
pported by its allies in Hezbollah and by groups of Shiites from Iran, Iraq
5
The three editions by the same author are: Laborie Iglesias, Mario. «The Middle East:
change without return». Included in VVAA «Geopolitical Overview of conflicts 2011».
IEEE.November 2011.«Syria: sliding toward chaos». Included in VVAA «Geopolitical
overview of conflicts 2012».IEEE.February 2013.«Syria: war, sectarianism, and chaos».
Included in VVAA «Geopolitical overview of conflicts 2013».IEEE.January 2014.All three
volumes available at http://www.ieee.es.
6
Laborie Iglesias, Mario. «Siria: consecuencias de una guerra en punto muerto» (Syria:
Consequences of a war at an impasse). One Magazine.05.03.2013.Available at http://
www.onemagazine.es/noticia/12279/Opinion/Siria:-consecuencias-de-una-gue-
rra-en-punto-muerto.html.
116
and Yemen, the Government began an offensive with the goal of contro-
lling the road linking Damascus, Aleppo and Homs, and the corridor that
connects these towns with the Jordanian border, on the one hand, and the
Mediterranean coast, on the other. Thus, after heavy fighting, the loyalist
army took back from the rebels the cities of Qusayr, Qunaytirah and Daraa
and managed to cut the flow of supplies from Lebanon.
From the very beginning, the war in Syria has been characterized by three
deeply interconnected factors: its sectarian nature, the great ideological
fragmentation of the opposition and the influence of the conflict over the
geopolitical dynamics that affect the Middle East as a whole.
The sectarian struggle faces off the Sunni majority (70% of the Syrian po-
pulation) - which nourishes the insurgents -with the Alawites (11%) and
Christians (10%) - traditional base of the regime – without forgetting the
role played by the Druze (2%) and Kurdish (7%) minorities.
The clash between the two major branches of Islam, Shia and Sunni, has
brought geopolitical rivalries between Iran, defender of the Alawite As-
sad regime, and the monarchies of the Gulf and Turkey, which support
different rebel Sunni groups. Likewise, the confrontation has meant the
activation of existing partnerships at global and regional levels, in favor
or against one side or the other. Thus, the diplomatic disputes between
Russia and China, on the one hand, and the U.S. and its European allies,
on the other hand, have been constant, making it difficult to reach agree-
ments for peaceful conflict management. The following sections explain
the evolution of all of these factors in the months prior to September
2014.
Albeit slowly since the summer of 2013, Assad forces have not stopped
gaining ground. In June of that year, the rebels were evicted from the
strategic city of Qusayr, on the border with Lebanon, and in April 2014
had been practically expelled from the Qalamoun region, cutting off their
lines of supply with that country. And in which was an important victory,
early in May of 2014 Assad forces gained control of the city of Homs, once
known as the «cradle of the revolution». 7 With complete dominion over
the region of Homs, the regime has managed to divide the rebel zone and
secure vital communications between Damascus and the coast. Also in
the capital, the loyalists have gathered in the Centre of Damascus and
hold siege around the neighborhood of Yarmouk, former Palestinian refu-
7
Makdesi, Marwan. «Assad’s forces take Homs, ‘capital of Syrian revolt’».
Reuters.8.05.2014.Available at http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/08/
us-syria-crisis-homs-idUSBREA470LX20140508
117
gee camp, where hundreds of rebels resist fiercely. In this effort to control
the capital, in mid-August 2014, loyalist forces took control of the town
of Mleha, two kilometers southeast of Damascus thereby narrowing the
chokehold on the periphery neighborhoods still dominated by the rebels. 8
It would seem that from this moment the main effort of the regime will
be aimed, firstly, at consolidating the center of the country and the region
of Qalamoun, where some rebel groups still operate. 9 Once that goal has
been achieved, it is most likely that Assad will try to gain complete con-
trol of Damascus and strangle the northern city of Aleppo, an area that
has been disputed from the beginning of the conflict and that in recent
months he has been the target of important battles. 10 If the regime can
take that city and, subsequently, conquer the border between the region
of Azaz and Turkey, it will have obtained an almost decisive victory, since
the rebels’ control over other parts of the country does not pose a direct
threat to the regime.
It is true that the likelihood that the Government is capable of restoring its
authority over the whole territory of the country, which is currently out of
their control, seems remote since it does not have the necessary number
of troops. However, if the aforementioned trends continue, it is most likely
Assad will be able to pacify Syria sufficiently to hold firm in his power. In
fact, the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, said last April that the
Syrian regime was no longer at risk of being overthrown.11
Actors and strategies
Despite the enormous complexity of the Syrian conflict, the passage of

time has to some extent made clear the actors involved in it, as well as
their alliances and strategies.
8
Sancha, Natalia. «El Ejército sirio gana terreno en el frente de la periferia de Da-
masco». (The Syrian army gains territory outside of Damascus)El País.14.08.2014.
Available at http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/08/14/actuali-
dad/1408043583_949810.html.
9
It is estimated that there are between 5,000 and 10,000 insurgents in the area avoi-
ding direct combat with Assad´s Army and Hezbola . Al-Fakih, Rakan. «Border rebels
resist Hezbollah, regime». Daily Star.08.07.2014.Available at http://www.dailystar.com.
lb/News/Lebanon-News/2014/Jul-08/263005-border-rebels-resist-hezbollah-regime.
ashx#axzz386skzakj.
10
Abdulrahim, Raja. «Syrian government, rebels clash for future of Aleppo».LA Ti-
mes.06.03.2014. Available at http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-wn-
syrian-clashes-in-aleppo-20140306-story.html#ixzz2vGhsXE9X.
11
Al Arabiya News. «Hezbollah: Assad’s regime no longer in danger».07.04.2014.
Available at http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2014/04/07/Hezbo-
llah-Assad-s-regime-no-longer-in-danger-.html.
118
The following will explain which of the forces that sustain the Assad re-
gime, as well as those fighting against it, without forgetting the Kurdish
issue.
The Assad regime and its supporters. Hezbollah.
It is undeniable that the past 12 months have been very good for Bashar
Al - Assad, from both the political and the military standpoint.
As described previously, the victories on the battlefield have been conti-
nuous due to several factors. First, the regime, unlike the insurgents, has
a consistent strategy and maintains an important internal cohesion for-
ged in the extremely harsh conditions they have endured. Second, it re-
tains a significant operational advantage as a result of the strong foreign
support received from Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia, the greater firepower
of their units and their consistent mastery of the sky. Finally, at a tactical
level, the Syrian national army uses brutal methods of attack including
chemical agents and explosive barrels - as he has been denounced re-
peatedly; some of these tactics contradict the principles of international
humanitarian law.12
The main problem faced by the regime is the lack of people with which
to strengthen their forces, which prevents them from sustaining ongoing
offensive operations and on several fronts simultaneously, as well as
prevents them from keeping the conquered land. Taking into account the
troops that it had at the beginning of the conflict – approximately 295,000-
, the casualties it has suffered - around 37,000 - and the high percentage
of deserters - up to 130,000- it is estimated that the Syrian regular army
now has less than 100 members.13
For this reason, the paramilitary forces have become a key asset for the
regime. In this sense, the national defense forces (NDF), organization that
serves as the «umbrella» for several pro-Government militias and con-
sisting of about sixty thousand volunteers, and constitute a critical force
for Assad.14 Although they have acted as a shock unit in offensive opera-
tions, the primary functions of the NDF include occupying land and pro-
tecting supply lines and facilities, freeing the regular army and enabling
it to carry out major combat operations.
The shortage of infantry forces the loyalists to limit the use of ground
forces and to rely on the superiority of artillery and air fire, before attac-
12
Maurer, Peter. «IHL and humanitarian principles are non-negotiable – Syria is no ex-
ception».15.02.2014.ICRC. Available at http://www.icrc.org/eng/resources/documents/
article/editorial/2014-02-15-syria-maurer-humanitarian-principles.htm.
13
Lister, Charles. Dynamic Stalemate: Surveying Syria´s military Landscape». Boo-
kins Doha Center. Policy Breifing.May 2014.
14
Jane’s Sentinel Security Assessment - Eastern Mediterranean.02.07.2014.
119
king a particular rebel position. Once they have conquered an area, they
would usually expel civilians to prevent the opponents from returning. In
addition, since the beginning of 2014, the Government has agreed to more
than 40 truces with various rebel groups, which has allowed it to improve
its control over areas in dispute.15
Also, the political evolution is favorable to Assad. On July 16, he began
a third term as President of the country, which, in theory, will allow him
to remain in office until 2021. 16 The electoral process commenced last
spring, and it has resulted in the expected re-election of Assad, which
has strengthened the regime in the internal political sphere. Despite the
ongoing war and the fact that the elections were only held in areas under
Government control, the insurgency has been unable to halt the develo-
pment of the elections. Also, the elections have stressed the failure of
Western policy aimed at provoking the fall of the Syrian regime.17
In the inaugural ceremony, which for security reasons was held in the
Parliament situated in the center of the capital, the re-elected Syrian Pre-
sident delivered a defiant speech which promised to recover all of Syria
from the hands of Islamist insurgents: «I reiterate my call today to all who
were tricked so that they lay down their weapons because we will not stop
fighting terrorism and striking it wherever it may be until we can restore
security to every corner of Syria.18
Similarly, in the international arena the regime appears more confident
than months ago. Today the possibility of international military interven-
tion seems completely ruled out, mainly due to two causes. On the one
hand, Assad has been able to manage the handing over of its arsenal of
chemical weapons with cunning which, as stated by the national director
of US intelligence, James Clapper, has strengthened his position.19
15
Blanchard, Christopher M., et al.«Armed Conflict in Syria: Overview and U.S.Respon-
se». Congressional Research Service. Report RL33487.24.06.2014. Available at http://
fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdf.
16
According to the Syrian government Assad achieved 88.7% of votes. «Assad
re-elected in wartime election» .Al Jazeera.05.06.2014. Available at http://www.al-
jazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/06/bashar-al-assad-re-elected-syrian-presi-
dent-20146419457810751.html.
17
Sly, Liz; Ramadan, Ahmed.«Syrian election sends powerful signal of Assad’s
control». The Washington Post.3.06.2014. Available at http://www.washingtonpost.
com/world/middle_east/syrian-election-sends-powerful-signal-of-assads-con-
trol/2014/06/03/16876fca-eb2a-11e3-b98c-72cef4a00499_story.html.
18
English Transcript of the inaugural speech of the third term of Bashar Al-Assad.
Op.Cit.
19
Gordon, Michael R; Mazzetti, Mark.« U.S. Spy Chief Says Assad Has
Strengthened His Hold on Power». The New York Times.04.02.2014. Avai-
lable at http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/05/world/middleeast/us-re-
presentative-to-syrian-opposition-is-retiring.html?ref=world&utm_source=Sail-
120
At the same time, the rise of jihadist groups has deterred potential allies
of the rebels from increasing military aid, fearing that it could fall into the
wrong hands. Turkey, which controls the main supply routes used by the
insurgent, has closed three border posts held by the Islamic State and
has designated the Al – Nusra Front a terrorist group.20
So as things stand, Assad is convinced that Western and regional ene-
mies will be forced to deal with him as a bulwark against more radical
Sunni insurgents, since «soon, we will see that Arab, regional and Western
countries that supported terrorism, will also have to pay a high price.» 21
The progress made by the loyalist forces would not have been possible
without the support of the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah, and other
groups of the same creed as the Quds force – a special force unit of the
guardians of the Iraqi militia or the Iranian – revolution Asaib Ahl al - Haq.
The participation of Hezbollah in the Syrian conflict has evolved since
2011. Their initial military objectives in Syria consisted of saving a re-
gime that was considered a vital ally and distancing the jihadist Sunnis
from the borders and Lebanese neighborhoods controlled by Shiites. But,
faced with the risk of the collapse of the Government of Damascus, its
involvement in the conflict became more intense. Thus, what began as a
mere insight into urban fighting has over time, turned into direct combat
missions which have expanded over large areas of Syria. In the offensive
of Qusayr from 2013, militiamen of Hezbollah carried the weight of the
action, while the Syrian army took on a supporting role. 22 According to
official Israeli sources, in March 2014, between 4,000 and 5,000 Hezbo-
llah militiamen were fighting in Syria.23
To what extent the unconditional support of the Syrian regime was de-
grading Hezbollah´s military capacity is a debated topic. On the one hand,
the conflict in Syria has helped a new generation of its members to gain
precious combat experience,24 which can be used in the future against
Israel, its natural enemy, or in Lebanon against rival Sunni organizations.
thru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=%2AMorning%20Brief&utm_campaign=MB%20
2.5.14&_r=1.
20
The Economist. «Why Bashar Assad is still in charge».07.07.2014. Available at
http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21603470-rivalry-be-
tween-insurgents-helping-him-nowbut-may-eventually-undermine-him.
21
English transcript of the inaugural speech of the third term of Bashar Al-Assad.
Globalresearch.org.16.07.2014.Op.Cit.
22
Lister, 2014, Op.Cit.
23
Kershner, Isabel. «Israel watches warily as Hezbollah gains battle skills in Syria».
New York Times.10.03.2014. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/11/world/
middleeast/israel-watches-warily-as-hezbollah-gains-battle-skills-in-syria.html.
24
Hubbardmay, Ben. «Syrian Fighting Gives Hezbollah New but Diffuse Purpose». The
New York Times.20.05.2014 Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/21/world/
middleeast/syrian-fighting-gives-hezbollah-new-but-diffuse-purpose.html.
121
But, as its involvement in Syria has increased, its casualties have in-
creased exponentially - since the beginning of the conflict until mid-July,
2014, over 500 militiamen of Hezbollah have lost their lives,25 and the
group would have to start relying on inexperienced recruits with little
instruction. This need to send new fighters from Lebanon is reinforced
by the movement toward Iraq of members of Asaib Ahl Al-Haq, which re-
turned to Iraq to fight the advance of the Islamic State – it is thought that
between 20,000 to 30,000 Shiite Iraqis were serving in Syria.26
The situation reduces the ability of Hezbollah to counter Syrian rebels, in
their attempt to regain the ground lost along the Lebanese border, and
also to maintain security in their Lebanese strongholds, which are cons-
tantly hit by the Sunnis. Also, if it wants to avoid opening a second front
in southern flank, it will have to limit its desire to take action against Is-
rael, as demonstrated by not acting directly in support of the Palestinians
against the Israeli attack on the Gaza Strip carried out during much of the
summer of 2014.27
Thus, although currently the strategy of Hassan Nasrallah seems clear,
long-term, «the participation of Hezbollah in Syria is a threat to the move-
ment and is problematic for Lebanon and the Arab world in general. The
regional sectarian division has deepened, feeding the extremism it hoped to
combat and eroding the legitimacy of the movement among groups that once
supported it’’. 28
The rebels: between fragmentation and the advance of jihadism
In spite of the support of countries that oppose Assad, the fragmentation

of the Syrian political opposition has increased in the last year.
25
Dagher, Sam. «Syria’s Allies Are Stretched by Widening War». The Wall
Street Journal.14.07.2014. Available at http://online.wsj.com/articles/
syrias-allies-are-stretched-by-widening-war-1405383402?mod=fox_australian.
26
Since the US removed its troops from Iraq in December of 2011, Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq
has become one of the most powerful ACTORS in the political and public life in Iraq. The
group has a close relationship with Hezbola and maintains links to the supreme leader
of Iran, the ayatollah Ali Jamenei. Chulov, Martin. «Controlled by Iran, the deadly militia
recruiting Iraq’s men to die in Syria». The Guardian.12.03.2014. Available at http://www.
theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/12/iraq-battle-dead-valley-peace-syria.
27
On July 7, 2014, the Israeli Defense forces launched Operation «Protective Edge»
with the objective of stopping missile attacks from the Gaza strip toward Israeli te-
rritory by the Islamist group Hammas. This is the third time Israel attacks Gaza for
the same reason, the previous Israeli operations were in 2008 2008 (Molten Lead) and
2012(Pillar of Defense).
28
International Crisis Group. «Lebanon’s Hizbollah Turns Eastward to Syria». Middle
East Report N°153 27.05.2014.Available at http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/
Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon/Lebanon/153-leba-
non-s-hizbollah-turns-eastward-to-syria.pdf.
122
Given its undoubted economic power, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have beco-
me the two main supporters of the Syrian opposition. However, both Qa-
tari and Saudis have separately formed alliances with rival rebel groups.
For this reason, there have been constant disagreements between the
various factions, in the heart of the Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC), the
organization which is recognized as the legitimate representative of the
Syrian people by several countries and international organizations.29 This
division was evident at the beginning of 2014, when the largest opposi-
tion bloc in the exile, the National Syrian Council (NSC) - supported by
Qatar - withdrew from the SOC in protest at the peace talks in Geneva II
because the Government in Damascus had been included. 30
This division is also reflected in the Supreme military joint command
(SMC), created in December 2012 to establish a unified action between
the existing myriad of armed groups and reduce the influence of the more
extremists elements --of all those included in the SCM, the Syrian free
army is the most important group-. On February 16, 2014, General Salim
Idriss was replaced in the leadership of the SMC by general Abdul-Ilah
Bashir to Al - Noeimi, closer to the Saudis than his predecessor. 31 This
change has undermined the unity of the SMC, since both Idriss and other
local commanders have broken their ties with the SOC. Thus, currently,
the SCM is divided equally between supporters of Idriss and Bashi.32
This uncertainty of the rebels had a direct consequence when, in mid-Fe-
bruary, Islamist groups took over SCM arms warehouses, and some of the
stolen materials ended up in the hands of followers of Al – Qaeda. 33 This
situation can be explained, on the one hand, by the reluctance of the West
to provide arms and material to SMC, and on the other, by the US attempt
to promote groups of secular and non-sectarian ideology, which would
29
For example, the U.S. government has given the SOC the status of foreign diplomatic
mission in the country, which gives it a symbolic push, even though it does not have an-
ywhere near the same diplomatic status as a State. DeYoung, Karen. «Syrian Opposition
Coalition offices in U.S. given ‘foreign mission’ status». The Washington Post.05.05.2014.
Available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/syrian-oppo-
sition-coalition-offices-in-us-given-foreign-mission-status/2014/05/05/3bb31544-
d476-11e3-aae8-c2d44bd79778_story.html.
30
Hurriyet Daily News. «Syria’s opposition split over peace talks after Iran exclu-
ded».21.01.2014. Available at http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/syrias-opposition-split-
over-peace-talks-after-iran-excluded.aspx?pageID=238&nID=61329&NewsCatID=359.
31
McDonnell, Patrick J.; Bulos, Nabih. «Syrian rebel army fires commander many con-
sidered ineffective».LA Times. Available at http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/
la-fg-wn-syrian-rebels-fire-commander-20140216-story.html
32
Lister, 2014, Op.Cit.
33
Hubbard, Ben; Shoumalifeb, Karam. «Top Military Body Against Syria’s Assad Is in
Chaos, Undermining Fight». The New York Times.23.02.2014. Available at http://www.
nytimes.com/2014/02/24/world/middleeast/top-military-body-against-syrias-assad-
is-in-chaos-undermining-fight.html?ref=world&_r=0.
123
include Harakat Hazam. 34 About the danger of certain armed groups, se-
parate from the SCM, receive American support, in June 2014, general
Bashir warned that it could create «warlords».35
The division of the opponents, both at the political and at the military le-
vels, has facilitated the development of groups of radical Salafi ideology
that gradually gained predominance over the moderate factions. Among
those Salafi-jihadi groups are: Jaish Al - Islam, the Islamic Front, Ajnad
Al - Sham, or Jaish Al - Mujahideen Islamic Union.36 Furthermore, after
much hesitation, the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood created, in January
2013, Al Hayat Duru Al - Thawra as its armed wing which today is fighting
against the regime in several Syrian provinces.
However, since the spring of 2013, two jihadist groups have attracted the
world’s attention: the Al - Nusra front and the Islamic State of Iraq and the
Levant37 –also known as the Islamic State or Daesch.
Al - Qaeda in Syria was created in mid-2011, on the basis of jihadists sent
to the country by Al - Qaeda from Iraq. There, they were able to increase
their combat capability and won autonomy formally becoming a branch
of the terrorist organization that Ayman Al - Zawahiri still runs under its
current name of Al – Nusra front.
On January 24, 2012, the organization formally announced that its goal
was to establish an Islamic State in Syria and a Caliphate in the Great
Syria, led by their leader Muhammad Al - Golani. He has given up coo-
perating with the SMC, pointing out that it is a crime to accept aid from
Western countries to topple the Assad regime. His volunteers come from
different places in the world: Western Europe, Muslim countries or Cen-
tral Asia - Chechens mostly.38
Since its founding by Jordanian Abu Musab Al - Zarqawi, Al - Qaeda in
Iraq adopted a fundamentalist ideology that, on a religious, doctrinal and
political level, considered an anathema anything that is different from the
most extreme precepts of Islamic fundamentalism. Its brutal forms of ac-
34
This coalition of militias, which belong to the Syrian Free Army, may have received
American arms in the past Spring, according to videos uploaded online. Blanchard et
al, 2014, Op.Cit.
35
Afanasieva, Dasha. «U.S. arms could create Syria ‘warlords’, rebel commander
says».Reuters.09.06.2014. Available at http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/09/
us-syria-crisis-opposition-idUSKBN0EK1EH20140609.
36
A broad analysis of the jihadist groups which are acting in Syria. Can be found in:
Echeverría Jesús, Carlos. «Grupos terroristas operando en Siria». IEEE Investigation
Document 04/2014. Available at http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/docs_inves-
tig/2014/DIEEEINV04-2014_GruposTerroristasOperandoSiria_CEcheverria.pdf.
37
The Arab name is «Daulat Al Islamiya Al Iraq Wal Bilad Al Sham».
38
Ibrahim, Azeem. The Resurgence of Al-Qaeda in Syria and Iraq. Strategic Studies
Institute. Mayo 2014. Available at http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/
display.cfm?pubID=1210
124
tion, which include the murder in cold blood of prisoners or civilians, have
provided their leader, Abu Bakr Al - Baghdadi, an undeserved notoriety.
In April of 2013, the Group declared itself the «Islamic State of Iraq and
the Levant» - also known as Daesch - which in practice meant to ex-
pand its traditional scope to include Syria. 39 Bagdadi, who had always
had a key role in the creation of Al-Nusra, considered Golani should be
his subordinate. The intentions of Bagdadi provoked the immediate con-
frontation with Al-Nusra, and the mediation of Zawahiri failed due to the
intransigence of the Islamic State –name which the group adopted in
mid-2014– following the order of the leaders of Al-Qaeda. In May of 2013,
the Islamic State was expelled from the network so now Al-Nusra is the
«official franchise» of AlQaeda in Syria.
Although perhaps, the only difference between Daesh and Al-Nusra is the
determination of who would lead the jihadist Project in the region, from
the moment of the break, there has been violent combat between both
organizations in Syria.40 And more importantly, for the first time since
its appearance over two decades ago, Al-Qaeda is facing a rival jihadist
organization with the resources and influence to threaten its status as the
flagship movement of global jihadism.41
In June of 2014, the Islamic State launched an offensive in the central
region of Iraq which is mostly Suni, which surprisingly was a complete
success and brought attention to the huge weakness of the regular Iraqi
army. Weeks later, with captured weapons, it launched a new offensive,
this time in Northeastern Syria, against kurdish militia and members of
other rebel groups. At the time of press, Bagdadi controls large areas in
both countries, including the cities of Raqqa, Hasaka and Dir Zur in Syria
or Ramadi, Samarra and Mosul in Iraq, where it has declared a caliphate.42
However, the Syrian government constantly repeats that the terrorism
that is sweeping Iraq is the same one that is threatening Syria,43 for the
39
In truth, for jihadists, the term «Levant» refers to the region which extends from
the south of Turkey to Egypt and includes: Lebanon, Israel, Palestine, Syria, and Jordan.
The objective cited by Bagdadí himself is to restore the Islamic state, or caliphate, in
the entire area.
40
Echeverría Jesús, Op.Cit, 6.
41
Hubbard, Ben. «ISIS Threatens AlQaeda as Flagship Movement of Ex-
tremists». The New York Times.30.06.2014. Available at http://www.nyti-
mes.com/2014/07/01/world/middleeast/isis-threatens-al-qaeda-as-flags-
hip-movement-of-extremists.html?action=click&contentCollection=Middle%20
East&module=RelatedCoverage&region=Marginalia&pgtype=article.
42
BBC News. «Syria crisis: Islamic State fighters seize Aleppo towns».13.08.2014.
Available at http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28770786.
43
Al-Manar. «Syria, Iraq Encounter Same Terrorism: Syrian Foreign Minis-
try».11.06.2014. Available at http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.
php?eid=155868&frid=23&cid=23&fromval=1&seccati
125
moment there have not been any notable combats between the Islamic
State and Assad´s army as each side has had a different area of influen-
ce. But, as the jihadists gain territory in the area of Alepo, the conflicts
between them are certain to become more intense.44
In any case, the activity of the Islamic State poses the question of how this
group can fight without interruption for months and in areas of operation
which are so far apart, but seemingly without losing their operational ca-
pacity. Over the next weeks, it will be seen whether the organization is
overextended strategically and whether the military intervention recently
launched by the US in Iraq, as explained further in the following section,
will be able to weaken the capabilities of the Islamic State.
This situation is a reason for unease in the region and in the international
community as a whole. In addition, in Syria there are a large number of
European jihadists fighting, 51 of them Spanish, and their return to their
countries of origin with a radical and extreme military and ideological
training, is a threat to the safety of the European Union.45
Kurdistan
Since the Treaty of Lausanne came into effect in 1923, the Kurds, of Sunni
beliefs and Persian language, have demanded the creation of their own
independent State. Historically, this aspiration has been in direct oppo-
sition to the interests of countries which exerted their sovereignty over
the territory known as Kurdistan. But like other geopolitical issues, the
changes that are taking place in the Middle East have intensified the po-
litical aspirations of the Kurds. The lack of stability in Iraq and Syria is
exacerbating tensions from this issue and at the same time, has opened
a window of opportunity on the ancient Kurdish wish.
In Syria, the withdrawal of the regular army has meant in all practicali-
ty, that the People´s Protection Committees (YPG for its Kurdish initials),
the armed militia of the «Democratic Union Party» (PYD for its Kurdish
initials) controls the main cities in the northeast of the country. In fact, in
mid-November 2013, the PYD announced the independence of the Syrian
province of Hassaka, where 70% of the population is of Kurish ethnici-
ty. This declaration enraged the Syrian opponents, headed by the Syrian
Opposition Coalition, which qualified the announcement by the PYD as a
44
These circumstances seem to confirm the fact that at the end of August, 2014, the
Islamic State took control of the Tabqa air base, final bastion of the government in the
province of Raqqa. After the siege, 250 soldiers that had been taken prisoner were
murdered by the jihadists.
45
RTVE. «Interior dice que hay 51 españoles combatiendo como yihadis-
tas». 30.08.2014. Available at http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20140830/interior-di-
ce-hay-51-espanoles-combatiendo-como-yihadistas/1002460.shtml.
126
«hostile act.»46 The ambivalent position of the PYD on the issue of suppor-
ting the Syrian political opposition is considered a show of caution before
the unstoppable rise of radical fundamentalist Sunnism. In addition, it is
necessary to consider the interests of Teheran, which would be suppor-
ting the aspirations of the PYD in order to ensure a certain degree of con-
trol over the border with Turkey and be able to reinforce its interests. To
this end, it is necessary to remember that Iran, affirm ally of Damascus,
has ceased the repression in its territories of armed Kurdish groups.47
In the last few months, the combats between jihadists and «peshmergas»
–Kurdish combatants– have intensified in the North of Syria. But unlike
previous occasions, in this case the Islamic State is taking the initiative by
taking advantage of the weaponry captured in neighboring Iraq.48
In Turkey, Kurdish separatism, represented by the Kurdish Workers’ Party
(the PKK for its Kurdish initials), is the main factor contributing to the ins-
tability in that country. An agreement reached in 2012 between the autho-
rities in Ankara and the historical leader of the PKK, Abdullah Ocalan –in
prison since 1999–, established a ceasefire in the country which is still
upheld today, albeit precariously. The Kurdish movement in Turkey has
accused the government of Ankara of supporting the groups which are
close to Al-Qaeda to the detriment of the Syrian Kurds.49 It is necessary to
clarify at this point that the PYD is the Syrian branch of the PKK.
As for Iraq, the federal Constitution of 2005 granted broad autonomy to
the Kurds that were living in the north of the country. In practice, the con-
trol that the government of Bagdad has had over the autonomous Kurdi-
sh-Iraqi region over the past few years has been practically non-existent.
During this time, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (PDK), led by Masud
Barzani, has governed the region, and surprisingly, has established po-
litical and economic alliances with Turkey, causing a certain degree of
animosity between the PKK and the PYD.
However, in addition to creating a huge humanitarian crisis, the offensive
of the Islamic State in Iraq has modified the delicate political balance in
the area. This jihadist impulse «has broken up the country in two (if not
46
Dettmer, Jamie. Syrian Kurd Self-Rule Declaration Raises Concerns». Voice of Ame-
rica, 15.11.2013. Available at http://www.voanews.com/content/syrian-kurd-self-ru-
le-declaration-raises-concerns/1791120.html.
47
MCELROY, Damien. «Syria and Iran ‘backing Kurdish terrorist group’, says Turkey».
The Telegraph.03.09.2013.Available at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/
europe/turkey.
48
Al Arabiya. ISIS intensifies offensive against Kurds in Syria.10.07.2014. Available
at http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/2014/10/ISIS-intensifies-offensive-against-
Kurds-in-Syria-.html
49
Wilgenburg, Wladimir van. «Turkish power struggle leaves new questions on Kurdi-
sh issue». Al Monitor.04.02.2014. Available at http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origi-
nals/2014/02/turkey-power-struggle-reveals-kurdish-questions.html#.
127
three) and created a de facto Kurdish State in the north which now controls
about 40% more than the territory recognized by the federal Constitution». 50
Faced with the uncontainable advance of the radical Sunnis and the real
danger of genocide against the religious minorities in northern Iraq, at
the beginning of August 2014, the President of the United States approved
selective air strikes on positions held by the Islamic State in Iraq.51 This
campaign, which has to date been limited to air strikes, is complemented
with humanitarian aid operations and the support of military consultants
given to the Iraqi armed forces and the Kurdish peshmergas.
In this situation, the calls for Kurdish unity have grown stronger in order
to face the threat represented by the radical Sunni. However, in spite of
the fact that the offensive of the Islamic State has reactivated nationalist
sentiment, the divisions between the various factions run deep, as can be
seen by the lack of cooperation in the area of the border between Iraq and
Syria, which is controlled by the various Kurdish parties.
The way things are, it is not very likely the PDK will answer the call of
the PKK-PDY to create a common strategy for the common defense of
the Kurdish people. Although the Kurds in Syria have announced they are
prepared to negotiate, it is not very feasible that Barzani, will make deci-
sions that may bother the Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayip Erdogan.
Furthermore, taking into account the calls in favor of Iraqi unity made
by the large powers, especially the U.S., guarantor of their security, and
other countries in the region, it is foreseeable that the PDK will attempt to
acquire new powers while staying within the confines of the Iraqi Consti-
tution,52 at least in name.
Chemical weapons and disarmament
Since the beginning of the conflict, the North American administration

designated the use of chemical weapons by the regime as a sort of «red
line» that, if crossed, would provoke a retaliation.53
In spite of this warning, there have been frequent accusations that the
Syrian government has used this type of weapons of mass destruction
50
Jiménez, Laura. »Los kurdos iraquíes se juegan la independencia».Esglobal.03.07.2014.
Available at http://www.esglobal.org/los-kurdos-iraquies-se-juegan-la-independencia/.
51
Barnes, Julian E.; Sparshott, Jeffrey; Malas, Nour. «Barack Obama Approves Airs-
trikes on Iraq, Airdrops Aid». Wall Street Journal.08.08.2014. Available at http://online.
wsj.com/articles/iraqi-militants-seize-christian-villages-1407404503.
52
Recknagel, Charles. «Iraqi Kurds Talk Independence But Move For Stronger Position
In Iraq». Radio Free Europe.23.07.2014. Available at http://www.rferl.org/content/iraq-
kurds-independence-talk-power-play/25459559.html.
53
«US has a range of military options in Syria». The Times of Israel.26.04.2013. Avai-
lable at http://www.timesofisrael.com/.
128
against the armed opposition and civil population. On August 21, 2013,
the most important incident with chemical weapons during the war took
place, and it could have killed hundreds of people.54 A report by a team
of UN investigators sent to the area stated that sarin- a neurotoxin- had
been used on civilians in the Damascus neighborhood of Ghouta, Althou-
gh the experts were unable to determine who was responsible, all signs
pointed to the regime.55
Almost immediately, the Obama administration ordered the deployment
of air and naval military forces to carry out a punitive action. But in an
eleventh hour diplomatic resolution, which allowed the White House to
withdraw the threat of attack, Syria agreed to adhere to the Chemical
Weapons Convention (CWC). In practice, this would mean the destruction
of their warehouses and production facilities, as well as the commitment
by the Syrian regime not to use chemical agents as a weapon of war. On
the basis of a joint proposal by the U.S. and Russia, the Organization for
the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) approved a plan to destroy
all the Syrian chemical arsenals and established June 30, 2014 as the
execution date56. Last June 23, 2014, the OPCW announced that it had
supervised the successful removal f the last batch of chemical weapons
from the port of Latakia.57
However, at the same time that chemical agents were being progres-
sively removed, humanitarian organizations were reporting the use of
canisters filled with chloride gas and launched from helicopters on the
civilian population.58 This fact, if it proves to be true, would prove the diffi-
culty that exists in verifying conclusively that there has been a complete
54
«Activistas denuncian un ataque con armas químicas del Ejército en Siria». Europa
Press.21/08/2013. Available at http://www.europapress.es/internacional.
55
United Nations Mission to Investigate Allegations of the Use of Chemical Weapons in
the Syrian Arab Republic - Report on the Alleged Use of Chemical Weapons in the Ghou-
ta Area of Damascus on 21 August 2013.13.09.2013. Available at http://www.un.org/
disarmament/content/slideshow/Secretary_General_Report_of_CW_Investigation.pdf.
56
For further details on this process and the chemical arsenal destroyed please refer
to two analyses: Domingo, Juan; Pita, René. «Siria reescribe la convención de armas
químicas». Documento de Opinión del IEEE 90/2013.1.10.2013. Available at http://www.
ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/docs_opinion/2013/DIEEEO90-2013_Siria_ReescribeConven-
cionArmasQuimicas_PitayDomingo.pdf ; Hidalgo García, María del Mar. «La destrucción
de las armas químicas de siria: un compromiso colectivo». Informative document of
IEEE 30/2013.04.12.2013. Available at http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/docs_infor-
mativos/2013/DIEEEI30-2013_DestruccionArmasQuimicasSiria_MMHG.pdf.
57
«Announcement to media on last consignment of chemicals leaving Syria».
Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. Statement by Ah-
met Üzümcü.23.06.2014. Available at http://www.opcw.org/news/article/
announcement-to-media-on-last-consignment-of-chemicals-leaving-syria/.
58
«Syria: Strong Evidence Government Used Chemicals as a Weapon». Hu-
man Right Watch.13.05.2014. Available at http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/05/13/
syria-strong-evidence-government-used-chemicals-weapon.
129
withdrawal of all chemical agents and strict compliance with the CWC. At
the time this was written, the OPCW was carrying out an investigation on
this matter.59
A boiling neighborhood
The sectarian character of the war in Syria is having destabilizing effects

on its Iraqi and Lebanese neighbors who, like in Syria rely on hetero-
geneous social structures. With the expansion of the conflict, the fragile
religious and political balances of these two countries start to blow up.60
In Iraq, the fall of Sadam Hussein deepened the already long existing divi-
sion between Sunnis and Shiites. The embryonic Iraqi democracy brought
the Shiite majority of the country to power, severely repressed by the
previous regime but that has not been able to create the appropriate ins-
titutional counterweights. During the years in office, the Government of
Nouri Al-Maliki has understood that any opposition was illegitimate and
therefore had to be repressed. Thus, instead of promoting a unified State
has used religious disputes as a political instrument in his own favor. Just
as throughout the Middle East, «local political tradition confuses democra-
cy with the abuse of the majority of votes as they use elections as a way of
consolidating power instead of sharing it».61
The consequences of this sectarian policy have irritated the Kurds who
have traditionally supported Maliki and ignited Sunni spirits, This way,
following the exit of the country of US forces, in December 2011, the dis-
putes between Shiites and Sunnis have been a constant. Moreover, the
strong influence of Iran on Iraqi public life has not helped avoiding clas-
hes between communities as Gulf monarchies, bastion of Sunnis world-
wide, have not neglected the opportunity to harass its geopolitical enemy.
Thus, the offense of the Islamic State in Iraq has to be considered as the
logical evolution of the internal battle between two majoritarian creeds
of the Islam, fostered by the dynamics of the war in Syria. The result is
that the Iraqi current situation is gliding dangerously towards the same
destiny and the Syrian: violent social and political fractioning, humanita-
rian disaster and disintegration of the State. The designation of Haider
Al-Abadi, as new Iraqi minister, in place of Maliki, in bid August 2014, has
59
«Global chemical weapons watchdog says work in Syria will continue».Re-
uters.23.06.2014. Available at http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/23/
us-syria-crisis-chemicalweapons-idUSKBN0EY1IF20140623.
60
Laborie, Mario. «Towards a new order in the Middle East». Included in VVAA. Strate-
gic Overview 2014. Available at http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/panoramas/pano-
rama_estrategico_2014.pdf.
61
Haass, Richard N. «The new thirty-years war». El País.24.07.2014. Available at
http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/07/23/opinion/1406117364_070279.html.
130
to be understood as intent to stop these dynamics62 – it is worth highligh-

ting that this replacement has been back both by Iran and by US example
of the seriousness of the situation the country is suffering-.
For Assad, circumstances in Iraq have serious effects as Bagdad has been
a key ally in its fight against rebels. Jihadists success in Iraq means the
breakdown of terrestrial communication networks linking both countries
with Iran. But most importantly, Iraqi Shiites forces- the majority of which
belong to Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq– which fought in Syria with the forces of As-
sad are returning to their country to fight against the jihadist advance.63
Lebanon suffers also the overflow of violence taking place in Syria as
the increase of radicalism and the massive arrival of Syrian refugees are
nourishing tensions among communities. The scarce Lebanese social
services are facing serious difficulties to attend almost the 1.2 million
Syrian refugees seeking refuge in the country.64
In the political arena, the increasing involvement of Hezbola in the Syrian
conflict ballast the creation of a National unity Government, pushing the
country to a deep government crisis – focused on the impossibility of
Lebanese Parliament to appoint a new president replacing Michel Sulei-
man, whose mandate ended May 2014.
Since 2006, the militia commanded by Hassan Nasrallah has turned into
a key actor of the institutional machinery of the country but its support
to the Syrian regime has been translated into the delegitimisation of its
political and military position and has given reasons to the most radical
Sunnis groups to defy his leadership.65 As a result thereof, the Lebanese
Salafist movements and parties are on the rise backed by Saudi Arabia
and the sectarian violence has moved several notches up, in spite of the
memories of the civil war that devastated the country for fifteen years,
have acted as a retaining wall until now.
Nevertheless, these last months, Lebanon has been repeatedly struck
by violent incidents. In an unequivocal proof of the deterioration of the
country’s situation, last August 2nd, members of the Islamic State, from
the Syria, took the Lebanese city of Arsal, near the Syrian border. The
subsequent confrontations with the Lebanese army caused dozens of
62
El Confidencial. «Al Maliki renounces in favor of the new prime minister Hai-
dar al Abadi».14.08.2014.Available at http://www.elconfidencial.com/ultima-ho-
ra-en-vivo/2014-08-14/al-maliki-renuncia-en-favor-del-nuevo-primer-ministro-hai-
dar-al-abadi_338701/.
63
Abi-Habib, Maria. «Shiite Militias Decamping From Syria to Fi-
ght in Iraq», WSJ.17.06.2014.Available at http://online.wsj.com/articles/
shiite-militias-decamping-from-syria-to-fight-in-iraq-1403051977.
64
Figure of 22.07.2014 obtained from UNHCR-Syria Regional Refugee Response. Avai-
lable at http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/country.php?id=122.
65
Hubbardmay, 2014, Op.Cit.
131
deaths and casualties. As declared by the commander in chief of the Le-

banese Armed Forces, General Jean Kahwaji, the jihadist rebels planned
to turn Lebanon into another Iraq, unleashing a sectarian war between
Sunnis and Shiites which would have endangered even the existence of
the nation.66
As expected, the situation in Syria and Iraq is also affecting Jordan. Apart
from the flow of Syrian refugees – more than six hundred thousand, as of
July 24 201467–, the security of the Hashemite Kingdom is at stake. The
withdrawal of the Iraqi army has left all border crossing points between
both countries in the hands of the Islamic State which can be tempted to
go one step beyond and enter Jordan.68
Nevertheless, in contrast to Lebanon, Syria or Iraq, it seems that in Jor-
dan there is not an environment favorable for the jihadist advance: the
king acts as binder of the society and the police have extensive capacity
to act. However in addition the country is not fractioned due to religious
issues –more than 90% of its population is Sunni- and the support of the
US and Saudi Arabia is strong. Therefore, although the jihadist against
the country can never be completely ruled out, in view of its rapid ex-
pansion throughout the region, it does seems unlikely that Jordan will
resemble its neighbors at least for the time being.
In an area key for the World’s energetic supply, the dynamics which cha-
racterized the role of external actors in Syria shape mainly around the
traditional Turkish-Arab-Persian rivalry and the competence between the
main world powers.
In this context, the International community, essential through United
Nations, has tried to open a channel for the peaceful resolution of the
conflict that to date has failed. This section analyses some of the keys to
understand the role of external actors in the current situation in Syria.
Initiatives for a negotiated solution
In more than three years and a half of war, the Security Council of the UN
has not been able to agree on any measure aimed to stop conflagration.
66
Nakhoul, Samia; Bassam, Laila. «Islamists sought to turn Lebanon into Iraq: army
chief».Reuters.12.08.2014.Available at http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/12/
us-lebanon-security-arsal-idUSKBN0GC0HY20140812.
67
UNHCR, Syria Regional Refugee Response – Jordan. Available at http://data.unhcr.
org/syrianrefugees/country.php?id=107.
68
Stratfor. «Jordan Could Be the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant’s Next
Target».17.06.2014.
132
Russia backed by China has blocked several resolution drafts promoted

by Westerns countries to punish Assad regime. Even the attempts to in-
volve the International Criminal Court to investigate and prosecute alle-
ged war crimes or crimes against humanity have been vetoed by Moscow
and Beijing.69
Thus, International initiatives to achieve a negotiated solution have ba-
sically focused on the so called Geneva talks. On February 2012, United
Nations and the Arab League agreed to appoint Kofi Annan as Special
Envoy to Syria with a view to facilitate a peaceful solution to the conflict.
In June 2012 and as a consequence of this diplomatic activity, the Action
Group for Syria70 agreed in Geneva a peace plan foreseeing a transition
government including members of the current regime and of the opposi-
tion – Geneva I-. But only a week later, in view of the escalation of violence
in the country and the division of the International community it seemed
evident that the peace plan agreed was written in soft chalk. The resigna-
tion of Kofi Annan as Special Envoy on mid-August 2012 clearly revealed
the failure of that round of negotiations.
In August 2012, the UN and the Arab League tried to revitalize the agreed
solution to the conflict and appointed Lajdar Brahimi to replace Annan71.
After one year and a half of hectic activity, the Algerian diplomatic vete-
ran succeeded in meeting the parties in one new round of conversations
which took place between January and February of 2014 – Geneva II-.
The optimistic perspectives opening the talks immediately faded. While
the war became more violent, negotiations failed to move towards the
creation of a transition government body, main issue of this round72. As-
sad regime rejected this possibility and defended the «fight against te-
rrorism» as the core issue of the debate. On the other and despite the
moderate opposition received an important International support, other
groups, amongst which there were the main Islamist militias, rejected
the negotiations and expressed their intention to continue fighting as the
69
Black, Ian. «Russia and China veto UN move to refer Syria to international cri-
minal court». The Guardian.22.05.2014. Available at http://www.theguardian.com/
world/2014/may/22/russia-china-veto-un-draft-resolution-refer-syria-internatio-
nal-criminal-court.
70
Formed by China, Russia, US, France, United Kingdom, Turkey, the Arab League,
the UN and the European Union. Action Group for Syria. Final Communiqué.30.06.2012.
Available at http://www.un.org/News/.
71
«Lakhdar Brahimi will be the new envoy of the UN to Syria». El Mundo.17/08/2012.
Available at: http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo.
72
The agenda of Geneva II opened with four points: 1) violence and terro-
rism; 2) implementation of a transition government; 3) National institutions; and
4) National reconciliation. Transcript of press conference by Joint Special Re-
presentative for Syria (JSRS) Lakhdar Brahimi, Geneva, 11 February 2014. Avai-
lable at: http://www.unog.ch/80256EDD006B9C2E/(httpNewsByYear_en)/
E9C582D61F42569EC1257C7C0053C600?OpenDocument.
133
future of Syria should «be crystalized on the ground of heroism and signed
with blood on the battlefield, not in empty conferences attended by those
who not even represent themselves». 73
In these circumstances and although the parties agreed to a period of
reflection and to resume the peace talks in the future, the failure of the
negotiating efforts to end the Syrian conflict compelled Brahimi to re-
sign from his position on mid-May 2014.74 On July 10th, the United Nations
appointed Staffan de Mistura as new Special Envoy of the UN for Syria,75
despite given the current situation of the Syrian conflict the expectations
of reaching at least one cease-fire on the initial grounds of the agree-
ments of Geneva are scarce.76
Regional powers
Turkey and the Arab monarchies
The three main enemy States of Assad are Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qa-
tar. Nevertheless, the discrepancies among the governments of these
three countries on how to manage the conflict seem increasingly evident.
At the beginning of March 2014, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and
Bahrein announced their withdrawal of their ambassadors in Qatar due
to the alleged Qatari interferences in domestic issues,77 although the re-
ason underlying this decision is in reality, the defense of the divergent
interests of the Arab reigning houses. Concerned about the rise of the
political Islam represented by the Muslim Brotherhood considered as a
threat to their own subsistence, the Saudi government – along with that
of the Emirates and Bahrein- favors Syrian opposing groups either Sala-
fist or nationalist. Just like the US, the Saudis back the current leader of
the SMC as a way of opposition to Islamists.
73
Holmes, Oliver. «Islamist rebels reject ‘hollow’ Syria peace talks».Reu-
ters.19.01.2014.Available at http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/19/
us-syria-crisis-idUSBREA0I0BZ20140119.
74
«Syria mediator Brahimi announces resignation». Al Jazeera.14.05.2014.Available
at http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/05/syria-peace-envoy-brahi-
mi-2014513151918573244.html.
75
«UN chief appoints Staffan de Mistura as special envoy for Syria crisis». UN
News Centre.10.07.2014. Available at http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?New-
sID=48244#.U8opqXmKC00.
76
By resolution 2139, of 22 February 2014, of the UN Security Council reaffirmed its
support to the comuniqué of Geneva and claimed that the parties backed its implemen-
tation at the same time as they demanded both parties to allow the free access of hu-
manitarian aid. Text in English of the resolution available at http://www.un.org/News/
Press/docs/2014/sc11292.doc.htm.
77
RTVE. «Arabia Saudí, Emiratos y Bahréin retiran a sus embajadores en Catar en
una decisión inédita».05.03.2014.Available at http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20140305/
arabia-saudi-emiratos-barein-retiran-embajadores-catar/890406.shtml.
134
In turn, from the beginning of the Arab riots, the Qatari government has
demonstrated its support to the Muslim Brotherhood as well as to the
Hamas Palestine group, gaining the criticism of the rest of the countries
of the (GCC).78
One of the core aspects of Qatar’s foreign policy has been its alliance
with Turkey as both countries share interests in their ambition to change
the statu quo existing in this area. For economic and political reasons,
Ankara tries to recreate the sphere of influence the Ottoman Empire had
until 1918 and counteract Iran. Meanwhile, Doha calls on the balance of
its relations with the regional hegemonic powers, Saudi Arabia and Iran
and uses its massive financial proceeds to «buy» influence and ensure
its autonomy.79
However, these differences have undermined the rebellion against As-
sad and on the contrary have favored the most radical opposing jihadist
groups over which none of these countries seem to have any control.
Iran
The regime of Teheran along with Syria and Hezbola – recently joined
also by the Central Government of Iraq- have conformed for lustrums
the so-called «Resistance Axis» with a view to expand the Iranian Is-
lamic revolution and boost anti-Western and antisemitic policies. Mo-
reover, given the rivalry with Sunni monarchies of the Gulf, especially
Saudi Arabia, for the regional leadership, the regime of Damascus has
been the link between Persians and Arabs. These two factors are es-
sential to understand the bow that has traditionally tied Syria and Iran.
Indeed, the regime of Assad would never be in the current strong posi-
tion should it not be for the decisive support of Iran since the beginning
of the war. The aid in intelligence and the supply of weapons and fuel
have made possible the combat capacity of the Syrian army. But above
all, Assad remain in power thanks on the one hand to the deployment
of members of the Quds Force to train Alawites militia and coordinate
military operations against rebels and, on the other hand, to the political
backing of the regional Shiite movement supported by Teheran. Never-
theless, the fact that thousands of Shiite voluntaries worldwide have
gone to defend Assad,80 has meant an increase of the sectarian nature
of the Syria conflict.
78
Laborie, 2014, Op.Cit.
79
Stratfor. Turkey and Qatar’s Shared Regional Interests». Geopoliti-
cal Diary.08.01.2013.Available at http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/
turkey-and-qatars-shared-regional-interests#axzz38MpwQdRl.
80
Knights, Michael. «Iran’s Foreign Legion: The Role of Iraqi Shiite Militias in Syria».
The Washington Institute.27.06.2013.
135
In the last year several notable facts have taken place, which have much
to do with the position of Iran both in Syria and the Middle East as a
whole. Firstly, the provisional agreement signed in November 2013 be-
tween Iran and the P5+1 negotiators – the five countries permanent
members of the Security Council plus Germany and that has recently
been extended for another four months-, to limit the nuclear program
of Iran, has brought the Ayatollah regime back to International arena at
the same time as it has reduced its isolation which favored the cause
of the increasing Shiite as a whole.81 And secondly, the advance of the
jihadist groups in Iraq and Syria, paradoxically, has situated Iranians on
the same side as the US.
Despite the suspicions the US-Iran closeness is rising in Israel and Saudi
Arabia82 – traditional allies of the US in the region- and the many myste-
ries already existing, there is a possibility that the geopolitical balances
in the Middle East may be reorganizing. For the moment, a slight mode-
ration can be seen as observed in the fact that Israel’s operation in Gaza
against the organization Hamás, lasting most part of the summer,83 has
not triggered the reaction of Hezbolá, something that in other circum-
stances would probably have happened.84
International actors
Geopolitical consequences of the war in Syria at an International extent

are becoming increasingly evident. This conflict and the transformations
undergone by the strategic environment of the Middle East reveal that
the World order is increasingly less Western, situation Russia is trying to
profit from.
Russia
Throughout the Syrian conflict, Russia has revealed itself as a key actor
for Assad’s aspirations of remaining in power as Moscow has provided
81
Laborie, 2014, Op.Cit.
82
Satloff, Robert. «Will Israel and the U.S. Break Up over Iran?» The Washington
Institute. January/February 2014. Available at http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/
policy-analysis/view/will-israel-and-the-u.s.-break-up-over-iran.
83
For more information regarding the «Protecting Margin» Operation started in July
8th 2014, please refer to RTVE «Conflicto en Gaza» Available at http://www.rtve.es/
noticias/conflicto-gaza/.
84
Only after 19 days of Israel attack in Gaza, Hassan Nasrallah has urged Mus-
lim countries to back the Palestinian Islamist movement. Nevertheless, at least
for the moment it has refrained from opening a new front against Israel at the bor-
der with Lebanon. Reuters. «Despite Syria rift, Hezbollah pledges full support to
Hamas».25.07.2014.Available at http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/25/
us-mideast-gaza-hezbollah-idUSKBN0FU1UA20140725.
136
essential weapons and replacements to prolong the fighting. But even

more relevant has been the repeated use of its right to veto in the UN
Security Council to block any resolution undermining the Syrian regime.
Undoubtedly its fervent defense of the inviolable sovereignty of the Sta-
tes, above any other principle of the relationship between States, has tur-
ned into the hallmark of the Russian diplomacy85 – insofar as Moscow
does not consider that its vital interests are threatened, as in the case of
Ukraine-.
With this policy, the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, is trying to main-
tain its only commercial and military partner in the area – it is worth
remembering that the Syrian port of Tartus hosts the only base of the
Russian army outside the country – in addition to revealing that Russia
is still a great power to take into account and that, if needed, it can coun-
terweight the US hegemony of the world. As the New York Times article
says, for Russians and Syrians «the Syrian war and the dispute for the
Crimean peninsula are essentially part of the one and widest battle against
North American unilateralism of the post-cold war».86 After all, it is more
than likely that Russia will continue strongly supporting the Syrian regi-
me although this may give rise to the rebuff of Western countries and of a
great part of the Sunni world.
The US and its European allies
When the first popular protests against the Syrian regime in 2011 star-
ted, the US intended the fall of Assad as that possibility was consistent
with its vision of the area: supporting peaceful political changes and
weakening of the capacity of Iran and Hezbola to attack Israel, its key ally
in the area.
But since the Syrian conflict resulted in a violent civil war, Washington
and its European allies, have been cautious regarding the policy to imple-
ment both to support the rebels and to develop military action as in 2011
to overthrow the Libyan regime of Colonel Gadafi
Aware of North-American public opinion, he wants to see his country less
involved in foreign issue after more than one decade of war in Iraq and
Afghanistan87, President Obama is trying by all means to not directly in-
85
TRENIN, Dmitri. «The Mythical Alliance. Russia’s Syria Policy». Carnegie Endow-
ment for International Peace. Fabruary 2013. Available at http://www.ciaonet.org/.
86
Barnard, Anne. «Russian Defiance Is Seen as a Confidence Builder for Syria’s
Government». The New York Times.21.03.2014.Available at http://www.nytimes.
com/2014/03/22/world/middleeast/russian-defiance-is-seen-as-a-confidence-buil-
der-for-syrias-government.html?_r=0.
87
Pew Research Center.03.12.2013. Available at http://www.people-press.
org/2013/12/03/section-1-americas-global-role/#views-of-international-engagement
.
137
volve itself in regional issues. At the same time, his intents to agreeing on
an International response consistent with Syria have clashed with Rus-
sian intransigence in the Security Council of the United Nations. Likewise,
European allies have revealed a clear lack of disposition to support the
use of military force in Syria as they consider that their vital interests are
not questioned for the moment.
These circumstances along with the fact that in Syrian scenario it is diffi-
cult to put together the appropriate use of the military instruments, exp-
lain the American reluctance to attack Assad’s forces. In addition, the only
reason why Obama would have carried out a military intervention, the
chemical weapons program, has been «peacefully» solved.
With respect to the proposal of supplying weapons for rebels to be able
to counteract the higher combat capacity to the Syrian army, the progres-
sive advance of the jihadist groups, gives reasons to fear that those we-
apons may end up in inappropriate hands. Therefore, despite continuous
announces88, it seems that they are only providing «non-lethal» devices
although there is information regarding the existence of a «modest» pro-
gram to train opposing groups considered as «more moderate».89
In this context, the US and European countries focus their efforts on un-
derpinning the stability of Syria’s neighbors basically through humanita-
rian aid for refugees and the coordination of intelligence material.
None the less, nowadays the main Western priority is to stop the progress
of organizations near AlQaeda and above all, of the Islamic State both in
Syria and in Iraq. Given that the change of the regime in Syria is a minor
problem, ironically, this issue puts Obama and Assad – with their allies
Iran and Hezbola- together in the same «trench» against Jihadism.90
There is no doubt that the Islamic State represents a direct threat for
Western world in general and for the US in particular. The organization
relies on the necessary human and financial resources to strike vital Eu-
ropean and US interests as well as to destabilize the friendly countries
of the region. For this reason, it would be normal that the US increased
its presence in Iraq and it cannot be ruled out that it may keep using the
88
In a recent speech given by Obama in the Military Academy of West Point, the Presi-
dent showed his wish to support the armed opposition in Syria. Entous, Adam. «Obama
Close to Authorizing Military Training of Syrian Rebels».WSJ.27.05.2014.Available at
http://online.wsj.com/news/article_email/SB10001424052702304811904579587.
89
Entous, Adam; Barnes, Julian E. «Pentagon Envisions ‘Small’ Training Program for
Syria Opposition».WSJ.16.07.2014. Available at http://online.wsj.com/articles/penta-
gon-envisions-small-training-program-for-syria-opposition-1405520641?tesla=y&m-
g=reno64-wsj&url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527023.
90
Rogin, Josh. «Obama Admin Debates Whether Assad Really Must Go». The Daily
Beast.07.03.2014.Available at http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/07/03/
iraq-crisis-pushes-u-s-closer-to-assad-the-dictator-it-said-must-go.html.
138
same procedures as in Yemen: selective attacks with drones, covert ope-
rations and counselling of security forces. In turn, European countries
normally adjust their actions, outside community institutions – the Eu-
ropean Union is still missing – limiting their support to the US to what is
purely imperative.
Conclusions
The regime of Assad and his allies, Iran and Hezbola, is better positio-
ned today than in the past months as seen by its military and diplomatic
achievements. Moreover, the lack of capacity of the opposition to act as
one has created the ideal conditions for the establishment of radical
Islamist organizations that, over time, have gained more power than the
moderate factions, which raises the alarms of the countries supporting
the rebellion. In particular, the Islamic State is surmised for the future
as one of the key parts of the conflict. Therefore, the survival of the
Syrian regime seems secured at least on the short and medium term
and under no circumstance, it seems to be any opportunity whatsoever
for peace.
It is already long ago that the Syrian war was a «simple» internal conflict.
The incorporation of new actors and factors along with the overflow of
violence, reaching already neighbor countries, depict a panorama where
conflagration has acquired it current regional format. Conflicts in Syria,
Lebanon and Iraq are so interrelated that it is no longer possible to dis-
cern an independent solution for some of them.
At the same time, the current geopolitical derivations the regional con-
flict –considering what happens in the region as a whole- may have
on the International relations at a regional or global level are beyond
dispute.
On the one hand, the return of Iran to the International diplomatic are-
na is focused on the good perspectives existing to reach an agree-
ment on its nuclear program. Of succeeding, the consequences of this
agreement can redesign the balances of power in the Middle East. The
US and Iran have found themselves in the same side in Iraq where
both countries try to support the Government of Bagdad against Sunni
rebels. Although the reaction of the rich Gulf monarchies remains a
mystery as with their incalculable financial resources they oppose to
Teheran gaining influence. Likewise, the Middle East is once more a
board where the interests of the great powers clash. Russia and China
try to make the most of the apparent US slide and the European apathy
in the region.
The failure of International diplomatic initiatives is due to the ambition
of adopting policies conflicting with the complex reality of this situation.
Maybe, instead of trying to end with the war in Syria – which in any case
seems long and violent- with partial measures and, most times, utopic,
maybe it would much better to succeed in pragmatically managing the
strategic environment.
Chronology
140
141
142
Peace processes in Liberia and Sierra Leone: Chapter
From optimism to ebola six
Summary
Compared with other post-conflict situations in Africa, the peace process

in Sierra Leone and Liberia has been praised by the international com-
munity for achieving a level of social and political stability that allows
more ambitious expectations to be harbored regarding the future of both
countries. Nevertheless, the recent outbreak of Ebola has introduced a
new element of uncertainty for the immediate future of the country, in
matters also closely related to the development and result of the electo-
ral processes, such as justice reforms, governance and economic growth.
Key words
Liberia, Sierra Leone, West Africa, armed conflict, Charles Taylor, United
Nations, peace process, stability, Ebola.
143
Peace processes in Liberia and Sierra Leone: from...
Introduction
Liberia and Sierra Leone are two countries which the international com-
munity, led by the United Nations, view as examples of Africa’s aspira-
tions for stabilization through the various missions undertaken on the
continent by the multilateral organization. In the case of the former, cons-
tituted in the mid-nineteenth century, precisely on a territory which whet-
ted the appetite of European colonizers, the positive evolution of this pea-
ce process also benefitted other countries in the area, like Liberia itself
or the Ivory Coast, thanks – among other factors – to the deployment of
international forces on the border.
Indeed, the country is managing to heal, with some success, wounds left
by two periods of civil war, from 1989-1996 and 1999-2003 - the last
episode so far.
Nevertheless, one cannot gloss over the tense situations which featured
protest movements opposed to the Monrovian government, chaired this
term by Helen Johnson Sirleaf, Head of State since the first elections af-
ter the post-conflict in 2006.
The same can be said of Sierra Leone, despite the fact that not so many
incidents are being recorded beyond the North-Eastern border, and not
because of the Ebola outbreak. In Sierra Leone, businessman Ernest Ko-
roma was able to remedy the situation after snatching State power from
leaders who had taken part in the internal conflict. However, political di-
vision of the country between a South-East hostile to Koroma and a Nor-
th-East related to the current President could sow the seeds of clashes if
tension is heightened during the prevalence of the disease.
The Ebola crisis that erupted in 2014 revived the alert on the situation in
Liberia and Sierra Leone, just when the forecasts were more optimistic
and their evolution on the road to democracy and stability appeared more
favourable, having left behind the civil wars which had such devastating
effects in both countries and with the initiation of two separate peace
processes, designed and implemented by the United Nations.
The risks that spread the Ebola virus are related to the reconstruction of
political stability that we mentioned above. In Liberia, the Senate elec-
tions originally planned for the month of December 2014, have suffered
a postponement.
It is clear that the polling stations would become a new source of
transmission of the disease, and that a population in a state of panic
over the rapid spread of the virus is not in the best position to choo-
145
se their representatives 1 But also the delay could be used against

the current political model. Similarly, new episodes of confrontation
or social polarization could open the way to a feeling of distrust,
which, as I write these pages, is creeping into important sectors of
the population, in a region where trust in leaders is not exactly a
value that is listed too high in the political debate. It is not difficult
to infer that in a situation like this, there is more likelihood of so-
cial crises occurring and affecting the institutional system, which
despite its shortcomings, has been settling down over the years of
post-conflict.
1
See this press report, among others: http://www.liberianobserver.com/politics/se-
nate-endorses-election-postponement. Last visited 6 September 2014.
146
If the task of formulating forecasts and analyzing the future is always

complex, it is even more so in the present circumstances, when the fragi-
lity that remained hidden behind the curtains of international intervention
starts to emerge; and then the subsequent uncertainty, always the most
uncomfortable fellow traveller in this kind of scenario.
With the first cases reported in December 2013, in an area of Guinea near
the border with Liberia, the Ebola virus multiplied, spreading through Li-
beria, Sierra Leone and Nigeria. As I write these pages, the death toll
due to Ebola already exceeds 2,000 people2, in the most virulent outbreak
of the disease since it was first identified in the Democratic Republic of
Congo in 1976.3 As we shall see, the situation described is more intense
2
Over 1,800 in the count published on 4 September, available at http://www.who.int/
csr/don/2014_09_04_ebola/en. Last visited 9 September 2014.
3
Refer to the information page of the WHO at http://www.who.int/mediacentre/facts-
heets/fs103/en. Last visited 9 September 2014.
147
in Liberia. There, the opposition to President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf has

challenged government measures against the Ebola outbreak, registe-
ring violent street clashes between protesters and police units.
The picturesque, vibrant and politically active neighborhood of West Point
was the scene of some of the most violent clashes with the police, resul-
ting in some fatalities.4
Apart from following the same path towards reconciliation, Liberia and
Sierra Leone share hundreds of miles of border, several ethnic groups
4
See New York Times report on this, at http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/21/world/
africa/ebola-outbreak-liberia-quarantine.html? . Last visited 22 August 2014.
148
with significant presence in the two countries and co-existence with a

large contingent of refugees from armed conflicts in the neighborhood:
Liberian refugees fled to Sierra Leone and thousands of Ivoirians who
sought refuge across the Liberian border.
In terms of the economic situation, Liberians and Sierra Leoneans depend
largely on their mineral (iron, gold, diamonds) and agricultural resources.
As for Liberia, its 165 year-long history has been marked by a permanent
contradiction: the interests, beliefs and ideas of the North American colo-
nizers (the love of liberty brought us here is the country’s official motto)
which arrived in Liberia in the nineteenth century, displacing those of the
native population, who were soon subdued by the minority of ‘outsiders’.
It was in the 80’s that the first governor, who was not a direct descendant
of freed slaves, took over through a coup. In 1847, his ancestors proclai-
149
med the independence of the current state, thus ending the organic link
that bound it to the United States and the Colonization Society that had
sponsored it.
They also brought with them a form of government and institutions, fas-
hioned after those left behind, thousands of miles across the sea. That
forced deportation, the desire to be and act like Americans in Liberia, was
with time one of the causes of the conflict that arose in the last two deca-
des of the twentieth century.
Liberia became known as ‘the Lone Star’ for the white one that appears
in the top corner of its national flag. This symbol is in fact the most re-
presentative icon of the Whig rash of Liberian Americans. They actually
founded the Liberian True Whig Party (Authentic Whig Party of Liberia),
who ruled the country for over 130 years, restricting the voting rights of
the indigenous population. That regime corresponded to an inbred social
organization in which there was little interaction between the colonizers
and the original Liberian population. The model of large plantations im-
ported from the US complemented family inbreeding, without the ‘newco-
mers’ mixing with Liberians.
Only in the mid-twentieth century, thanks to the initiative of President Wi-
lliam Tubman (1943-1971), was there a slight rapprochement between
the two communities, and attempts made to boost economic growth to
incorporate the indigenous population.5 But the mild reforms did not lead
to significant changes. Women and ‘indigenous’ owners voted for the first
time in 1951, which also marked the beginning of large-scale mining in
the country.
The ruling elite always expressed support for the West, siding with the
Allies in both world wars. In 1942, Monrovia signed an agreement with
the United States, which guaranteed the supply of rubber, almost exclusi-
vely from Liberian plantations.
On the level of defense and infrastructures, the treaty, sealed by the
Monrovia interview between Roosevelt and his counterpart, Barclay, was
materialized in the construction of roads to ensure the transportation of
rubber crops, as well as an airport and seaport which opened the capi-
tal’s doors to modern international trade. Excessive rubber crop establi-
shment, shelling from German ships and the presence of allied troops for
decades had a considerable impact on the country’s economy.
When military action gave way to the Cold War, cooperation between Mon-
rovia and Washington, as well as the American presence in West Africa,
its former ward, remained. From there, the CIA directed and conducted
several operations to counter growing Soviet influence on the continent.
See http://www.blackpast.org/gah/americo-liberians. Last visited 8 August 2014.

5
150
Samuel Doe and the Civil War
The uprising led by Samuel Doe, Petty Officer belonging to the Krahn eth-
nic minority, marked the beginning of the conflict, which led to the coun-
try’s bloody civil war. Coming from a rural area in the South-East of the
country, he grew up in a poor family, who could not provide him with an
education beyond primary school. He entered the army, and was an offi-
cer in the Liberian Navy when, leading a group of soldiers, dealt the blow
that killed the then president, William Tolbert Jr.6 This politician, whose
family had belonged to the ruling elite since their arrival in Liberia in the
late nineteenth, had succeeded Tubman, when he died, after having been
his confidant for over two decades. Although the handover was provided
for in the Liberian Constitution, Tolbert was not directly elected by the
citizens.
His mandate followed a line of shifting away from the Tubman pro-Wes-
tern tradition, making approaches by initiating contacts with countries
that were members of the Soviet bloc. Paradoxically Doe, a native, was
supported by the Reagan administration when he seized power violent-
ly.7 Doe abolished political parties up until 1985, creating the National
Democratic Party of Liberia (NDPL). The elections were probably fraudu-
lent, with the Liberian Action Party claiming victory. Thus the climate of
tension that would lead to civil war grew.8 Doe had no apparent reasons
other than lust for power to take up arms to distribute plots between his
family and fellow adventurers.
The first battles took place in 1985, after an armed group opposed to the
Samuel Doe government erupted from Sierra Leone. The mutiny was put
down, with the army held by the Krahn starting a brutal repression, which
introduced an ethnic component. The Mano and Gio peoples in the Nimba
region bordering Sierra Leone, bathed by the Mano River were the most
persecuted by the followers of Doe.
Four years later, the National Patriotic Front of Liberia arose out of the
Americo-Liberian alliance and the Mano and Gio ethnic groups, led by
Charles Taylor. In the escalating violence that followed, thousands of
people were killed by the NPFL (the Krahn and Mandingo ethnic groups
mostly), which also began recruiting child soldiers9. The NPFL soon gai-
ned followers among those pursued by Samuel Doe, and the two sides
6
See http://www.liberiapastandpresent.org/SamuelKDoe.htm. Last visited 16 August
2014.
7
The story is still remembered of when Reagan, with a strong handshake, proudly
introduced him as Chairman Moe of Liberia.
8
See the comprehensive history presented by Fred van Kraaig in his online project,
«Liberia past and present» quoted in the previous footnote.
9
See http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/liberia-1989.htm. Last visi-
ted 11 August 2014.
151
then competed in cruelty and violence. The attack on Monrovia, ECOMOG

intervention and retaliation by Doe’s Liberian Armed Forces (AFL) were
the bloodiest episodes in this first phase of the war in which the reco-
very of power by the Americo-Liberians was resolved. A third fighter
entered the fray: an armed group affiliated to the Gio population, NPFL
off-shoot, and commanded by Prince Johnson, who carried out the mur-
der of Doe in 1990.10
Moreover, there was overuse of natural resources such as diamonds, ru-
bber or iron, which provided payment for weapons coming from Libya or
Burkina Faso, to counter American influence.
After successively failed ceasefires, unity governments which did not
rule, and episodes of violence and fighting, there was international inter-
vention, about which we shall speak more later. And then the elections
that brought the current President Johnson Sirleaf, 2011 Nobel Peace
Prize winner, to power.11
We don’t need to insist on describing the state of infrastructures, pro-
ductive capacity and institutions at the end of the war, when Liberia was
under the administration of the United Nations and donor countries.
It was the skeleton of a country that was put on the table of negotiation
and signing of the Accra Peace Accords in 2003.12 From that moment,
reconstruction was to begin, with some preliminary and essential condi-
tions: the return of those who had fled the fighting and substantial impro-
vement in their safety. Particularly in the metropolitan area of the capital,
Monrovia, which were easily over one million inhabitants at the outbreak
of civil war. The outer urban population assumed a prominent position at
important moments in the recent history of their country - both during the
period that preceded the conflict and during the peace, reconstruction,
and stabilization processes. Likewise, in the recovery of entrepreneurs-
hip and economic activity, although this also continues to be the focus of
social tension.
Sierra Leone
Unlike its neighbor, where the UN decided to actively maintain the mis-
sion deployed there, the multilateral organization decided to shut down
its Special Mission to Sierra Leone, with the general approval of the agen-
10
We recommend the report «Meeting the hard man of Liberia», broadcast by the BBC
in 2008. Information available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_
own_correspondent/6113682.stm. Last visited 29 July 2014.
11
See http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/2011/johnson_sir-
leaf-facts.html. Last visited 29 July 2014.
12
Full text available at http://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/file/resources/collec-
tions/peace_agreements/liberia_08182003.pdf. Last visited 9 August 2014.
152
cies involved. The decision was celebrated in a ceremony praising the

reconciliation forged in that country at the end of a conflict that lasted
from 1991 to 1999.
Located on the borders of West Africa, and surrounded by intricate vege-
tation, which also acted as a natural barrier, at times, against the arrival
of tribes and expansionary religious movements, its coasts were vulne-
rable to European vessels. Ever since the arrival of the Portuguese, Pe-
dro da Cintra, in the fifteenth century, ships anchored near what in future
would be the city of Freetown, undertook various expeditions, and from
1650, began trafficking slaves from West Africa to plantations in North
America.
Freetown was the name given to the settlement that hosted groups of
freed slaves, first arriving in 1787, with the protection of the British Navy,
a few years before the territory became part of the Empire. Coming from
different parts of the continent, those known as ‘creo’ carried with them
the cultural baggage of their hometowns, plus the ordeal of slavery and
the move to a land that was not theirs.13 As in Liberia, there was some
tension between the indigenous ethnic groups (the largest being the Tem-
ne in the North, and the Mende in the South) and the ruling elite, both
colonial and Creole.
At the end of the third decade of independence, the struggles for
power between different rival factions unleashed a fierce struggle
that could again only be resolved through international intervention,
and had diamonds as an end and a pretext, a sinister ornament for one
of the most sordid scenarios in recent African history. All this despite
the absence of pre-war ethnic or religious clashes of importance, even
though ethnic loyalties prevailed as a determining value, even in the
government sphere.
On the other hand, Sierra Leone hosted the first university in West Afri-
ca, although its influence (as is the case in European countries) was not
enough to overcome the large-scale corruption in public administration.
The country came to the point of collapse, with the majority of the popu-
lation doomed to endure a subsistence economy.14
In 1991, several coup attempts eventually led to the outbreak of armed
conflict. With 50,000 deaths and 2.5 million displaced persons, more than
half of the total population showed the serious consequences it had for
13
See a brief but complete historical resume of the country on the US Embassy page:
http://freetown.usembassy.gov/history2.html. Last visited 14 August 2014.
14
See Lawrence, Michael: «Vertical integration and persistent causes of conflict in
Sierra Leone». Centre for International Governance Innovation, October 2012. Avai-
lable at http://www.cigionline.org/blogs/rethinking-peacebuilding/vertical-integra-
tion-and-persistent-causes-of-conflict-sierra-leone. Last visited 28 July 2014.
153
this small country.15 Political tensions strained the atmosphere while un-
dermining the government’s capacity to manage.
The liberal promise of President Joseph Saidu Momo, maintained as sole
party by the All People’s Congress (APC), did not turn out to be convin-
cing. In 1992, he was deposed and deported to Guinea, and a provisional
military junta installed its elf. In the 1996 elections, Alhaji Ahmad Tejan
Kabbah was elected President in longed for elections with quite a few
democratic guarantees.
A peace deal seemed to stop the conflict with the RUF, who had spent
years chasing diamonds in the mountains and senior officials in the
streets of Freetown. Meanwhile citizen militias, the army and the RUF it-
self engaged in relentless hostilities. In this climate, with so many armed
groups controlling their share of power and resources, the peace agree-
ment promoted by Kabbah was not viable.
After the participation of Sierra Leonean troops in the ECOMOG forces
acting in Liberia, Taylor began providing weapons to rebels in the neigh-
boring country, in order to destabilize the government and become strong
in the diamond and arms trade. The Revolutionary United Front, under the
command of Foday Sankoh, was one of the militant groups that managed
to attract a large proportion of youth from poor areas. The RUF, which had
no defined territorial or ethnic support, based its growth on coercion and
threatening civilians with weapons.16
According to data collected by UNAMSIL (Special UN Mission in Sierra
Leone) and UNICEF, between 6,000 and 10,000 children were compelled
to take up arms, even being recruited by government forces.17
In 1997 a group of officers overthrew the elected President and formed a
Board of Governors which included representatives of the RUF. Obviously,
the latter seized all power in Freetown, aggravating the situation in Sierra
Leone to the limit. This was the first coup in which the United Nations ma-
naged to restore the government to the deposed President, by deploying
international forces.18
The gradual normalization of political life led to the subsequent creation
of the Special Court for Sierra Leone, established to prosecute war cri-
mes that had been committed in that country and which would dictate the
famous sentence against Taylor.
15
See http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/sierra_leone.htm. Last visi-
ted 28 July 2014.
16
We recomment again the website on Sierra Leona at www.globalsecurity.org.
17
See http://www.unicef.org/slcrisis. Last visited 27 August 2014.
18
See www.refworld.org/docid/3df0dba62.html. Last visited 30 July 2014.
154
Current state of the conflict
In the nineteenth century the coastal regions, that cover both countries,
were key to the slave trade and historical events have caused the two
countries to evolve, in many aspects, in a similar way. These include the
contradiction found between the colonists and freed slaves and the ‘indi-
genous’ people, and the later interactions between rebel groups during
the civil wars and the international peacekeepers in the post war era.
In Sierra Leone the dissatisfaction with Koroma´s government was evident
when protests kicked off in the street following a law that was passed in
2013 to give more freedom of opinion and expression. Although it was a
law many had been campaigning for, the opposition felt it did not go far
enough.19 Since the end of the civil war there has been a call for greater
openness in this area. Various journalists were jailed for expressing their
opinions on the country´s government, accused of insulting Koroma.20 In
Liberia, sceptics argue that a similar law passed in the National Assembly,
in force since 2010, has not changed anything in terms of press freedom
and expression. In fact, one of the moments that best exemplified the lack
of faith most citizens had in the law, was the arrest of Rodney Sieh, editor
of Front Page Africa, one of the country´s main newspapers.21
However, if passing this law avoids more arrests, and at the same time
allows unfavourable opinion of the authorities to become more common
place, the fears of the opposition will be quelled. It is also an important
step towards a stronger democracy.
The after effects of the prolonged civil war continue to be felt in society
today and every now and then surface with tensions between the current
major political parties. An example of the type of action that can put an
end to any stability still being established was the boycott by the Congress
for Democratic Change (CDC), lead by Winston Tubman in 2011, during
the second round of presidential elections, in which Johnson Sirleaf was
finally re-elected. Tubman accused her of trying to create a one-party
state. The result of the first round of elections, witnessed by a significant
number of international observers, saw a lead of 11 percent for Sirleaf
(44 percent as opposed to the 33 that CDC achieved).22
19
See VRAGOVICH, Amanda: «Sierra Leone: freedom of information is one thing,
freedom of speech is another», Think Africa Press, 7 November 2013. Available at
http://thinkafricapress.com/sierra-leone/foi-vs-foe-liberia-press-freedom. Last visi-
ted 9 August 2014.
20
See http://www.freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-press. Last visited 11 August 2014.
21
Taken ill in prison, he was released by the Justice Minister, but was away from his
post for 6 months.
22
Among others, see this article published in The Guardian, at http://www.theguar-
dian.com/world/2011/nov/06/liberia-presidential-election-boycott-call. Last visited 8
August 2014.
155
Once the armed struggle had ended, all efforts were focused on reducing
the great rift between a clearly divided society, although more time is
needed to close this definitively, or at least, for it not to threaten the con-
tinuity of the State and its most basic social institutions.
The trial of Charles Taylor
The international community is confident that the exemplary sentence

passed by the Special Court for Sierra Leone in The Hague against ex Pre-
sident Charles Taylor goes some way to consolidate stability and peace,
in a process that was key to the future of Liberia. The former president
faces 50 years in prison for aiding and abetting war crimes committed
by his loyal forces during the long conflict, the first jail sentence that the
156
Supreme Court for International Justice has passed against a former

president.23
The court considered that the ex CIA’s agent in Africa had abused his po-
sition as President of Liberia and his presence on the Committee of Five
of ECOWAS in order to defend and promote the war crimes committed in
Sierra Leone.
Taylor became the main ally to the Revolutionary United Front and is a
model example of a «warlord» who, abusing his power and influence,
managed to destabilize a number of countries, confronting governments
and armed groups for his own advantage.24 It is important the prisoner is
kept away from Liberian territory, to avoid his influence causing any new
clashes in the country; as could happen in the Ivory Coast depending on
the verdict and final sentence passed against the ex President Laurent
Gbagbo.
Sirleaf´s role in the reconciliation
At the beginning of this chapter we referred to the re-election, in 2011,

of the current President Sirleaf when the leader of the main opposition
decided to turn his back on the elections. Although she still enjoys a wide
margin of popular support, the percentage of votes fell, and remained
below the 40 percent mark.25 Signs of political division relate to the es-
sential question in any reconstruction process following an internal war:
the demobilisation of armed groups and the reintegration of former com-
batants into civilian life. It is essential all is done to resolve these issues,
because during a phase of social tension with the presence of armed fac-
tions, capable of mobilising themselves and easily obtaining arms, the
conflict can flare up again. If we add to this the withdrawal of internatio-
nal contingents that had been present and supported the peace process,
there is a high risk of violent episodes occurring.
All the while there is no economic recovery and work cannot be created,
the members of armed groups have less incentive to participate in the
reconstruction of the country as peaceful citizens.
Regarding disarmament and demobilisation, according to data collected
by the United Nations, over 100,000 former combatants have voluntarily
23
See FERNÁNDEZ TRESGUERRES, José A: «Charles Ghankay Taylor: primer Jefe de
Estado condenado por un tribunal penal internacional». Instituto Español de Estudios
Estratégicos, Documento Marco nº 17, December 2012. Available at http://www.ieee.
es/Galerias/fichero/docs_marco/2012/DIEEEM17-2012_Juicio_CharlesTaylor_Tres-
guerres.pdf. Last visited 29 July 2014.
24
See http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/apr/26/charles-taylor-guilty-war-
crimes. Last visited 10 August 2014.
25
See http:// www.necliberia.org/results2011. Last visited 4 August 2014.
157
disarmed. However, only half the arms (some 27,000), of those that were
calculated to have been in use at the end of the war, have been handed
in. Therefore tens of thousands of small arms will continue to be in the
hands of ex-fighters, or sold to factions in neighbouring countries.26
There is evidence that something similar happened after the internatio-
nal intervention that ended the civil war in Sierra Leone. A flow of fighters
crossed to the other side of the border, to join the armed conflicts that
were taking place there. This also occurred when Liberian militants were
found to be participating in the Ivory Coast conflict in 2011, using the
structure and resources of factions that had decided not to demobilise.
The UN Secretary General has observed a lack of cohesion in the political
system, shown by conflicts and tensions arising when choosing leaders
and candidates.27 This happened in the Congress for Democratic Chan-
ge (CDC) set up to promote the presidential nomination of the footballer
George Weah. The popularity that he still enjoys, thanks to his participa-
tion in the European football elite, has attracted a large number of Libe-
ria´s youth to the CDC party, particularly in Monrovia and other cities.28
While we wait to see how he resolves problems at the top, the CDC is at
risk of basing their work on one of the traditional vices that has led so
many countries into bloody civil war: lack of impartiality and power stru-
ggles over the party´s identity.
In 2011 the CDC obtained 32 percent of votes, an encouraging result to subs-
titute Sirleaf, who cannot stand for re-election having already served two
terms in office. The negative aspect of those elections was the protests and
clashes between Weah supporters and police.29 In the meantime, the Gover-
ning party endeavoured to name a successor to Sirleaf who could achieve
the «united» conviction of once again ‘sweeping’ aside their opponents in the
next presidential elections. Although in 2014 many have left the party, with
the resignation of senators and some counties losing important figures.30
While the final date for the Senate elections is still to be announced, initially
planned for autumn 2014, some of the first preparatory stages in the elec-
toral calendar had not yet been completed, even before the Ebola outbreak
26
See http://www.irinnews.org/report/50857/liberia-where-are-the-weapons-is-di-
sarmament-really-working. Last visited 28 July 2014.
27
See the Secretary General reports 27 and 28 (2014) at http:// www.un.org/es/pea-
cebuilding/doc_liberia.shtml. Last visited 20 August 2014.
28
See, among others, this article published by Front Page, at http://www.frontpagea-
fricaonline.com/index.php/politic/1598-disorder-in-cdc-liberia-s-main-opposition-di-
vided-over-2017. Last visited 1 August 2014.
29
See http://www.theliberianjournal.com/index.php?st=news&sbst=details&rid=2378.
Last visited 31 July 2014.
30
See this analysis in the Liberian press at http://www.gnnliberia.com/arti-
cles/2014/07/03/liberia-resignation-overwhelms-unity-party-ahead-2017-elec-
tions-senator-momo. Last visited 10 August 2014.
158
in the country. In some regions the electoral census had not been finished,
a process that should have been completed by April 2014, with scarce fi-
nancial resources being cited as the official reason behind this.31
The development of electoral processes is closely linked to the issue of
security, more or less essential depending on how events unfold. There
is a difficult balance between decentralisation and the risk of new exa-
cerbated ethnic divisions, also bearing in mind that the territorial struc-
ture is organised around the majority ethnic grouping in each area. In
the hypothetical event of instability, with violent outbreaks, the security
forces have to work in a climate of uncertainty. The United Nations is wo-
rried about the persistent violence linked to common crimes, sexual abu-
se (high incidence of rape) and the active presence of vigilantes.32
Greater stability in Sierra Leone
Post-conflict stability is more advanced in Liberia´s northern neighbour,

Sierra Leone. The protests that happened at the beginning of 2014 in the
main mining areas were unusual, reviving the strong clashes seen years
before between miners and police forces, which resulted in fatalities.
The organisation Human Rights Watch highlighted the fact that the rise
in mining activity, specifically the extraction of iron, gold and diamonds, is
increasing social conflict and cases of human rights violations.33 Workers
complained about being forced to move to purpose built housing in parti-
cular areas, as well as demanding better working conditions.
Considering the high level of unemployment and poverty, both very pro-
nounced despite the laws that President Koroma has tried to establish, the-
re are reasons to be optimistic. Although no one can afford to lower their
guard, especially regarding the country´s political and institutional future.
In terms of modernising the armed forces, the presence of Sierra Leonean
units in Somalia has helped to improve the army´s image, and at the same
time, working alongside the military from other countries has re-enforced their
professionalism, gaining them experience in conflict resolution operations.
The 2012 elections, the third since the end of the civil war, were a suc-
cess.34 President Ernest Koroma still had a lot of support from the popu-
31
See «Liberia road to elections 2017», New Africa Magazine, 24 July 2014. Available at
http://newafricanmagazine.com/liberias-road-elections-2017. Last visited 31 July 2014.
32
UN SECRETARY GENERAL: Reports 27 (February 2014) and 28 (August 2014. Links
to the complete text at http://www.un.org/es/sc/documents/sgreports/2014.shtml.
Last visited 24 August 2014.
33
See HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH. «Human Rights abuse in Sierra Leone Mining boom»,
February 2014. Available at http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/02/19/sierra-leone-mi-
ning-boom-brings-rights-abuses. Last visited 21 August 2014.
34
See http:// www.nec-sierraleone.org/Election_Results.html. Last visited 29 July 2014.
159
lation, enabling him to change the complex laws that then allowed him to
remain in office to serve a third term.35
Many of the political parties suffer from problems previously seen in Li-
beria, mainly concerning internal power struggles for leadership, suc-
cession or the control of financial power linked to irregular dealings, as
much within the government as in the opposition Popular Party of Sierra
Leone. The Anticorruption Commission is kept busy working to resolve
these issues. Politically, there is a clear divide in the country, the eastern
and southern regions being the most hostile towards Koroma.36
The Ebola crisis
In March 2014, just three months after the first cases of infection were con-
firmed in Guinea, fear started spreading through the neighbouring countries.
When summer arrived, the news was full of headlines and stories about cases
of the virus and its spread. Fear soon turned to panic and the critics turned
their attention to the actions of the affected governments and on the reaction of
the international community faced with the progression of the illness.
Regarding the measures adopted by the authorities, people objected to a
rather repressive approach, instead of a strategy to contain the epidemic.
Many shared a reproach for the government´s indecision and the delay in
dealing with the gravity of the outbreak.
35
See the report Sierra Leone Assessment, by Jane’s in their series Sentinel Scrutiny
Assessments, February 2014.
36
See the Jane’s report, Sierra Leone Assessment. Op. Cit.
160
The establishment of quarantine areas was actually the most contro-

versial. On the one hand it was recommended and applauded by those
who defended its efficiency at containing the virus, but on the other hand
many questioned the effects on the population confined to these areas.
Due to access roads being closed, many crops were ruined because the
products could not be transported to their point of sale. The normal su-
pply of goods was also interrupted, causing serious difficulties for peo-
ple needing basic essential items. Also some items to do with the illness
were affected (disinfectant soap).
In Liberia a curfew was imposed and this decision actually caused more ten-
sions.37 In fact, the disturbances in West Point broke out as the area felt closed
in and isolated. Densely populated, the bustling neighbourhood is nestled in a
small peninsula, making it feel even more suffocating for its inhabitants if the
land access is cut off and people are not allowed to move into other areas of the
city. The most optimistic forecasts given by the WHO (at the end of August 2014),
state it will be six to nine months before the illness can be controlled. Places like
West Point could become a source of instability and conflict, with consequences
lasting longer than the Ebola outbreak itself. Actually, during the protests the
residents of West Point came under live gunfire from the security forces.38
Closing the borders made the feeling of isolation worse. The cities of
Guéckédou (Guinea) and Lofa (Liberia) still have an active supply chain,
with transport constantly crossing the river that separates Guinea´s lar-
ge city and the small neighbouring one.
Some sectors have demanded more effective action where health is con-
cerned, especially in terms of preventing the illness where there have not
yet been any cases of infection.
The temporary cancellation of a number of air routes, connecting affec-
ted countries with Europe was very controversial, and is one of the more
extreme examples of the dilemma between the knee jerk reaction to dis-
tance oneself from the source of infection and the populations need for
humanitarian aid and medical assistance.
The outbreak also brought to light some political-social issues. For
example, the health authorities came under criticism for not being more
flexible in adapting their actions to rituals and customs, which, in theory,
could be catalysts to the spread of the virus. Many were reduced to mere
prohibitions and orders, like the recommendation to avoid the popular
and common African greeting (shaking of hands).
37
See http:// www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-28862591.
38
See http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/08/18/why-
the-escape-of-numerous-ebola-patients-in-liberias-worst-slum-is-so-terrifying. Last
visited 19 August 2014.
161
In the meantime Sierra Leone´s government decided to make it illegal for fami-
lies to hide ill patients in their houses, by way of a law punishable by up to two
years in prison. The government of Freetown wanted to penalise any rejection
and distrust that many citizens felt towards the medical treatment of Ebola.39
Fear of being stigmatised or of reprisals, religious beliefs, rejection of isolation,
these are some of the factors that explain why many families affected in these
four countries preferred to stay silent and bury their dead next to their homes.
In fact it is funeral rituals that have contributed to the spread of the virus. In
West Africa the dead bodies of family members are washed before burial.
Some analysts point out the differences they have seen with the Ebola out-
break in Uganda and Sudan in 2000. For the editor of African Arguments, the
most important stems from the cultural differences between both regions, as
well as the speed with which the Kampala authorities contained the illness.40
Role of external actors
The United States
1864 officially marks the beginning of diplomatic bilateral relations, after

the consolidation of independence. Washington retained a firm intention of
intervening in Liberian internal affairs whenever situations of conflict arose.
The descendents of the freed slaves viewed the U.S as their natural ally
due to their shared history, whereas on the other side the ocean there
was more a feeling of patronage towards the small African country.
The CIA installed their African headquarters in Monrovia. It is abundantly
clear that the roots of the Liberian conflict originated in the tense deca-
des of the Cold War, and the strategic moves of the warring factions.41
Those close diplomatic relations between the U.S and Liberia soured until
the peacekeeping process opened the way for the holding of democratic
elections. The Liberian-Americans felt abandoned and misused by the
U.S,42 and a feeling of despair took hold of those leading the country.43
This was especially true considering Reagan’s support of Doe, who didn’t
39
See http:// www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28914791.
40
Analysis by Richard Dowden available at http://africanarguments.org/2014/08/20/
ebola-what-west-africa-could-learn-from-uganda. Last visited 29 August 2014.
41
See KRAMER, Reed: «Liberia: A Casualty of the Cold War’s End». Africa Notes 795,
Centre for Strategic and International Studies, July 1995. Available from http://csis.org/
files/publication/anotes_0795_0.pdf. Last visited 25 August 2014.
42
See NEAJAI, Robtel: «The need to retool Liberia relationship with the US», The Third
World Resurgence nº 257-258, January-February 2012. Available at TWN Twin World
Networld, last visited 22 August 2012.
43
See http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-adv/specialsales/international/spotli-
ght/liberia/article2.html. Last visited 26 August 2014.
162
come from American stock. The United States also held a prominent role
in the UNMIL, they not only sent aid provisions of forces and equipment,
but donated over a billion American dollars.44 45
In 2010 the Monrovian authorities officially regained control of their Armed
Forces, after nearly a decade of international intervention in the country.
U.S Forces have actively participated in training the Liberian Army, as well
as supplying weaponry and ammunition.46 Improving the professionalism
of the Liberian Army remains a number one priority for the U.S, together
with issues of governance, such as increasing transparency within state
institutions or the independence of the legal system. Drug trafficking in the
region still remains one of the major concerns of the U.S administration.47
Sierra Leone
The same prominence that Liberia enjoyed in U.S foreign policy was not
attained by Sierra Leone, lacking as they did historical ties. Nonetheless,
both countries retain close relations due to the migratory movements of
Sierra Leone’s population, who partly come from the freed slaves retur-
ned to Africa at the end of the XVIII Century. Several tens of thousands of
emigrants from this country currently reside in the U.S.
Relations between Freetown and Washington are friendly since the for-
malising of bilateral ties with independency in 1961, with cooperation and
commerce both flourishing. The U.S participated in the prominent inter-
national mission in Sierra Leone during its civil war, as well as peace
keeping and the rebuilding of its institutions. Most noteworthy is the U.S
contribution to the establishment of the Special Court of Sierra Leone, to
uphold the law on war crimes and crimes against humanity committed
during the country’s 11-year-long civil war.
The achievements of Sierra Leone in areas such as political cooperation,
support of electoral processes, the increase in citizen participation in po-
litical issues and the recovery of human and material capabilities in Sie-
rra Leone’s Armed Forces are highlighted by the U.S.48
The country’s trade flows follow much the same pattern as with Liberia:
agricultural products, minerals and metals cross the Atlantic, leaving the
country heading West, while chemical supplies, machinery, and transport
44
http://monrovia.usembassy.gov/history.html.
45
http://monrovia.usembassy.gov/history.html. Last visited 24 August 2014.
46
See http://www.africom.mil/Newsroom/Article/6526/us-marines-soldiers-and-
sailors-join-with-liberian.
47
Documents relating to bilateral relations can be sourced at the following link: http://
www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/6618.htm. Last visited 24 August 2014.
48
See http://www.africom.mil/newsroom/article/8709/us-army-africa-partners-
with-sierra-leone-armed-forces.
163
are all imported. In contrast to Liberia, there are no investment treaties

nor customs cooperation agreements between the two.49
Ecowas
The 1981 treaty signed in Freetown by The Economic Community of West

African States (ECOWAS) was aimed at promoting the so-called ECOMOG (the
West African peacekeeping mission). It was finally set up in 1990 to intervene
in the civil war that threatened to tear Liberia apart. Nigeria provided most of
the military and economic resources, though Gambia, Sierra Leone and Gha-
na also participated. Some 4000 forces were initially deployed to neutralize
the numerous armed militias and confront the main cause of the conflict, the
guerrilla group NPFL. By the time the operation drew to a close in 1997,50
more than 12.000 forces had taken part in the ECOWAS mission in Liberia.51
Confronted with a full-scale civil war, ECOMOG was mandated to main-
tain law and peace. By confining ECOMOG to the political and humanita-
rian sphere, part of the controversy that had always surrounded ECOWAS
was resolved. In the Liberian crisis the sub regional organisation acted in
common agreement with UNOMIL, the United Nations mission deployed
in the country. The arrival of this new player significantly reduced hostili-
ties, with a notable decrease in ethnic killings.
Human rights organisations however point out that ECOMOG never inte-
grated human rights protection and promotion into its activities, thereby
undermining its own creditability and ability to bring peace.52
The deployment of ECOWAS was the second occasion in which a regional
organisation would send military units to mediate in a conflict. The first
was in Chad, on a mission deployed by the African Union.
The last two essential phases of consolidating the rebuilding of Liberia
and Sierra Leone involved the economy and the military, the latter with
ECOWAS representatives in command of the Liberian Army.
The last phase of this intervention in Liberia coincided with ECOWAS de-
ploying military units in 1997 in the conflict of Sierra Leone. The coup
d’état in Freetown saw President Kabbah temporarily ousted from power.
49
More information at http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5475.htm. Last visited 19
August 2014.
50
See news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/country_profiles/2364029.stm. Last visited 16 Au-
gust 2014.
51
Recommend Ghana’s Armed Forced website on ECOMOG, at http://www.gaf.mil.gh/
index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=25&Itemid=59. Last
visited 17 August 2014.
52
HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH: Waging War to Keep the Peace: The ECOMOG Intervention
and Human Rights. Human Rights Reports, June de 1993. Read the whole text at http://
www.hrw.org/reports/1993/liberia/ Last visited 18 August 2014.
164
He was soon reinstated with the military intervention of ECOWAS and the
United Nations Mission in Sierra Leone (UNAMSIL).
The Sierra Leone and Liberia interventions helped ECOWAS learn key
lessons that subsequently shaped future military and diplomatic inter-
ventions in conflicts in the subregion,53 notwithstanding the obvious and
indubitable problems and difficulties that assailed the United Nations and
ECOWAS in the Sierra Leonean conflict.54
Joint operations between subregional African organisations and the Uni-
ted Nations were improved as a result of ECOWAS intervention, mainly in
Sierra Leone, though there is still some way to go.
When news of the Ebola virus outbreak first hit, the initial reaction of the
member states was one of panic, with border closures and strict tra-
vel bans. The World Health Organisation (WHO) and similar internatio-
nal bodies called for the bans to be lifted, claiming they harmed efforts
to contain the deadly virus. Governments began to rectify and reinforce
preventative measures in place of decreeing absolute isolation. ECOWAS
convened an emergency summit to discuss how to prevent the Ebola vi-
rus from spreading and allay public fears.55
With the removal of political obstacles, ECOWAS would arguably have the
capacity to become an essential player in the resolution of conflicts wi-
thin its sphere of influence. Political, personal or ethnic rivalry between
governments, and a certain mutual distrust towards ECOWAS as a me-
diator remain the greatest challenges to be faced. These structural weak-
nesses undermine the cohesion of this sub regional organisation.56
The United Nations
These conflicts, stretching over three decades, have witnessed the shift in
UN field operations from traditional missions to complex multi-dimensio-
nal missions, which, at the same time echo how the nature of the conflicts
themselves, has changed. UN peace keeping, originally developed as a
53
See ARTHUR, PETER: «Africa: Lessons for the Future» Africa Today, vol. 57, nº 2,
winter 2010. Pp. 3-24. Available at http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/africa_today/sum-
mary/v057/57.2.arthur.html. Last visited 19 August 2014.
54
Some of these disadvantages are analyzed in ENUKA, CHUKA: «United Nations and
ECOWAS Joint Intervention in Sierra-Leonean Conflict: An Analysis of the Problems of
Peacekeeping, Peacemaking and Peace Enforcement». Summary available at http://
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2172708. Last visited 17 August 2014.
55
See http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28977134. Last visited 31 August 2014.
56
See DÍEZ ALCALDE, J. «¿Qué es la CEDEAO? Fortalezas y debilidades para enfrentar
el conflicto de Mali». Analysis paper 11-2013, Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos.
Available at http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/docs_analisis/2013/DIEEEA11-2013_
CEDEAO_Mali_FortalezayDebilidades_JDA_.pdf. Last visited 16 August 2014.
165
means of dealing with inter-State conflict was increasingly being applied

to intra-State conflicts and civil wars.57 Liberia y Sierra Leona both ex-
perienced this new model of international peace keeping. Mass violence
caused by ethnic rivalry, protection of minority population groups perse-
cuted by rivals, security forces at the disposition of the warring factions,
weapon supplies financed smuggling and trafficking. Gifra Durall com-
ments «some of these conflicts take place in states that don’t have the
capacity or will to control and restrain the said groups (…) In the same
way, combat does not take place in war zones, but in schools or houses,
so that civil victims have ceased to be accidental».58
The Security Council created UNOL in 1997 (United Nations Peace-buil-
ding Support Office in Liberia), to take over from UNOMIL (United Nations
Observer Mission in Liberia)59. Observers collaborated with ECOWAS and
the transitional government in Liberia, in applying the measures establi-
shed in the peace agreement that ended the civil war.
UNOL remained active until 2004 with the reconciliation of Liberian so-
ciety, together with the rebuilding of the country and the recovery of the
economy as its focal point.
Resolution 1509/2003 of the United Nations ratified the intervention in
the conflict with the deployment of an international mission, without ta-
king into account whether the situation of the country would allow the
cessation of hostilities. The initiatives detailed in the Peace Agreement
signed in Ghana, also in 2003, were applied.60 The most urgent tasks were
protecting the civil population, offering humanitarian assistance, and
avoiding violations of human rights by the warring factions.
The process of modernization, reform and democratization of the Police
and Armed Forces were outlined, following the criteria detailed in the
Reform of the Security Sector.
Before the UNMIL could even complete its work, the United Nations was
already heralding it as an example of what could be achieved through
working together for a clear common cause, even when the peace process
57
See http://www.un.org/es/peacekeeping/operations/surge.shtml. Last visited 9
August 2014.
58
See also GIFRA DURALL, J. «20 años de operaciones de paz de Naciones Unidas
como instrumento de protección humanitaria», Opinion Document 86 2011, Instituto
Español de Estudios Estratégicos. Available at http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/
docs_opinion/2011/DIEEEO86-2011VeinteAnosOperacionesPaz_JuliaGifra.pdf&rct.
Last visited 12th August 2014.
59
Information at http:// www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/missions/past/unomil.htm.
60
Read the whole text of the treaty at http://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/file/
resources/collections/peace_agreements/liberia_08182003.pdf. Last visited 22 Au-
gust 2014.
166
seemed very challenging. In 2008, Ban Ki-moon highlighted the Liberian

Government’s efforts towards peace and the fight against impunity.61
United Nations recognised, through The 2066/2012 Resolution of the Secu-
rity Council passed in September 2012, that lasting stability in Liberia would
require well functioning, accountable and sustainable government institu-
tions including security and rule of law sectors to avoid a repetition of past
violence.62 The Resolution encourages the Liberian Government and the UN-
MIL to address the critical gaps that need to be filled to ensure a smooth
transition, promote human rights and reconciliation, assess security challen-
ges, strengthen democratic institutions and extend state authority.
Likewise the document urges transparency and accountability in mana-
ging the country’s natural resources, and notes with concern the slow
progress made on the issue of land ownership. The implementation of
core benchmarks for the police force and the implementation of a natio-
nal security strategy are also essential within the drawdown phase of the
UNMIL.
UNMIL’s military strength is reduced from seven infantry battalions
to four, with related enablers. To date, there is a force 3.750 strong,
while police numbers have increased by more than 400, reaching the
total of 1.795.
The following year saw the passing of Resolution 2128/2013, on 10th
December, which stressed the need to ensure Liberia’s borders are
effectively controlled.63 Furthermore, gathering measures from various
resolutions passed between 2004 and 2010, it reaffirms and renews the
restrictions relating to shipments of lethal arms into the country, sta-
ting that the Liberian Government has the responsibility of notifying in
advance, with details of technical specifications, end user, supplier and
itinerary.
UNMIL’s lasting presence in the country lent credence to the general per-
ception that international troops will continue to play a fundamental role
in the stabilization of the country.
Sierra Leone (UNANSIL)
These letters correspond to the abbreviations of the international mis-

sion deployed by the Security Council in the territory of Sierra Leone be-
61
Read the whole text at http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2008/sgsm11535.
doc.htm. Last visited 24 August 2014.
62
Read the whole text on Resolution 2066/2012 at http://www.un.org/es/comun/
docs/?symbol=S/RES/2066(2012). Last visited 8 August 2014.
63
See http://www.un.org/es/comun/docs/?symbol=S/RES/2128(2013). Last visited
8 August 2014.
167
tween 1999 and December 31st of 2005.64 Based on the Peace Agreement
of Lomé, it aimed for the disarmament and demobilization of the various
guerillas and future reintegration of their members into civilian life. In
August of 2005, following the completion of various successive enlarge-
ments of the mission, the Security Council deemed those satisfactory and
opted to replace them with UNIOSIL (United Nations Integrated Office in
Sierra Leone) in 2006 pursuant to resolution 1620/2005.65 This renewed
international presence was meant to consolidate peace and promote sta-
bility.66 In compliance with the United Nations guidelines regarding this
type of missions, various programmes designed to modernize the Sta-
te’s security forces as well as those implemented to strengthen electoral
processes and democratic institutions, power and the administration of
justice account for UNIOSIL’s main tasks.
Collaboration with other regional missions was another objective so as
to limit weapon and human trafficking in addition to the smuggling of
resources vital for the economy at the borders of the country. Finally, in
2008, the Council approved the deployment of UNIPSIL (United Nations
Integrated Peace-building Office in Sierra Leone),67 pursuant to resolution
1829 2008.68 Upon reaching satisfactory levels of stability, the Council
looked to normalize and improve institutions and electoral processes. It
valued the level of professionalization reached by the armed and police
forces that were considered capable of carrying out their functions within
a democratic institutional framework.
Nevertheless, the Council warned of the need to remain vigilant in case
of any increased social tension and monitoring the compliance of human
rights, justice and the rule of law.
The European Union
As analyzed in previous editions of the Geopolitical Overview of Con-

flicts, the situation in West Africa has been generating growing con-
cern in Brussels for the past few years. The spread of jihadism from
the Sahel towards the West, instability or crises that occur in coun-
tries that produce hydrocarbons, migratory pressure or the strengthe-
64
More information at http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/missions/past/unamsil/
facts.html. Last visited 9 August 2014.
65
See http:// www.acnur.org/biblioteca/pdf/3838.pdf?view=1. Last visited 6 August
2014.
66
More information at http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2005/sc8487.doc.htm.
67
http://unipsil.unmissions.org/Default.aspx?tabid=9613&language=en-US. Last vi-
sited 9 August 2014.
68
Can be read by accessing http://unipsil.unmissions.org/portals/unipsil/media/do-
cuments/scres/SCRes201829_202008.pdf. Last visited on 8 August 2014.
168
ning of macro criminal organizations together with high levels of ins-

titutional corruption, have become the acquis of the European Union’s
foreign policy.
Consequently, the EU has launched various initiatives to boost economic
and institutional cooperation so as to gain weight in the most sensitive
regions of Africa in terms of security. Its presence also aims at counter-
balancing the actions of other international actors which economic and
political interests in Africa have become evident.
The EU and the government of Freetown therefore decided to sign (the
procedure in place to designate programs may eventually be modified)
the National Indicative Program that received funding reaching 376 mi-
llion Euros. The goals of this initiative include sustainable farming and
food safety that complement two additional objectives or a more politi-
cal kind such as the improvement of governance and of the educational
sector.69
The EU will continue to participate with regards to the implementation of
measures concerning the Security Sector Reform thus playing a role in
the institutional and political evolution of those countries since the devas-
tating effects of civil wars and the proximity of the Gulf of Guinea and the
Sahel are a concern for the security of Europe.
In short, Brussels will support Sierra Leone to help the country enter a
phase of comprehensive growth so as to reduce income, employment,
educational or political and economic gaps of participation which have
impeded any opportunities for development in the last decades.70
Cooperation to improve infrastructures and the provision of essential
services to citizens is one of the main goals that would contribute to su-
pporting the measures outlined by the Government of Sierra Leone in its
so-called Agenda for Change.71
The EU’s foreign policy regarding Liberia is roughly the same as for Sie-
rra Leone. The main programs and objectives are indicated in the Blue
Book Europe-Liberia published in 201272 in which Europe’s policies in ter-
ms of cooperation are criticized arguing that measures implemented are
too conceptual and slowly and occasionally not put in practice.
69
See http://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/sierra_leone/documents/press_cor-
ner/20140820_1_sierra_leone_signed_nip_en.pdf. Last visited 21 August 2014.
70
See http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/where/acp/country-cooperation/sierra-leone/
sierraleone_en.htm. Last visited on 19 August 2014.
71
The basic lines are indicated on the following web page http://ec.europa.eu/de-
velopment/icenter/repository/scanned_sl_csp10_en.pdf. Last visited 20 August 2014.
72
The full text can be accessed on the following web page http://www.eeas.europa.
eu/delegations/liberia/documents/page_content/eu_blue_book_en.pdf. Last visited 13
August 2014.
169
On another hand, the European Union showed its great concern with re-
gards to the expansion of the Ebola virus in those two countries. Its rela-
tive proximity to the infection’s outbreak and the constant movement of
people between the tow banks led Brussels to raise the alarm. Europe
aligned with local authorities and emergency measures taken to contain
the crisis and for this reason, approved a provision of funds to be alloca-
ted for this purpose.73
Spain
The main lines of the Spanish foreign policy concerning these two coun-
tries do not differ from Brussels’. The geo-strategic interest that led Spain
to act in the region of the Gulf of Guinea is stated in the National Security
Strategy of the country. As a result of this, in July 2014, the Ministry of
Defense announced the deployment of military operations in the Sahel
and the Gulf of Guinea carried out jointly with other contingents of the
European Union.74
Conclusions and perspectives for the future
Reasons for the international community to applaud the progress made

throughout the last decade towards establishing peace and stability in
these countries are evident. The reconstruction of these two countries
-which is still in its initial phase- carried out by the various peace-kee-
ping missions has fulfilled the United Nations’ expectations. The demo-
bilization of fighters has allowed the reduction of the presence of armed
groups and their impact in both territories with Liberia showing slightly
greater signs of violence and civil insecurity.
Since the end of hostilities, elections have taken place successfully
meaning that the political situation is more satisfactory than in other
post-conflict countries. The ex-President and war lord Taylor, one of the
greatest responsible for the extreme violence and cruelty that characte-
rized the Liberian conflict has been condemned by the International Cri-
minal Court.
Despite these positive circumstances, the future of Liberia and Sierra
Leone remains uncertain. Risks and threats, more or less dormant, could
affect the process of reconciliation.
In Liberia, peace and stability greatly depends on the presence of the
international mission currently in place in its territory. The United Na-
73
See http://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/liberia/press_corner/all_news/news/
2014/20140815_1_en.htm. Last visited 24 August 2014.
74
http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2014/07/09/53bd7a1f268e3ebe188b4571.html.
170
tions will need to set a date to dismantle the UNMIL in a fairly short-term.
This is when the citizens of Liberia will recuperate their full powers and
become fully in charge of their future. This entails the need to genera-
te capacities to face risks and threats more or less successfully. This is
particularly important with regards to the justice administration which
will need to adopt values such as impartiality and neutrality. This also
means that reforms in the security sector must guarantee professio-
nalism and efficiency. Economic growth will then be attainable which
should benefit other vast sectors of the population which face poverty
and unemployment and for which illegal trafficking or violence are profi-
table alternatives.
Likewise, significant efforts to encourage the cohabitation and rappro-
chement of social sectors that were once opposed will be necessary. Gi-
ven this particular context, the responsibility of those that will manage
the country’s transition towards a full self-government is quintessential
particularly in Liberia.
Opponents’ authoritarian demonstrations and restrictions of rights and
freedom in Sierra Leone and Liberian are of great concern. This is parti-
cularly evident in the case of the Liberian Armed Forces. Upon comple-
tion of the mission of the military personnel sent by the United Nations,
the government will face the challenge of enabling its army to continue
acting in compliance with parameters established by the international
missions and banishing vindictive practices, abuses of power and co-
rruption or the violation of the fundamental rights of citizens. Abuses of
power, restricted political freedom and other forms of pressure against
those who defend different political ideas will no longer be seen. This
may sound too optimistic but the conditions to enable such a situation
may well be put in place.
However, this process requires the resolute involvement of opposing for-
ces especially with regards to the definite dismantling of armed groups
and the firm intention to banish violence.
The processes to designate new representatives voted by the people are
of the utmost importance in post-conflict situations in the sense that the-
se elections may lead to another crisis. Given this possible uncertainty in
Liberia, governments and opposition parties should double their efforts
to ensure elections take place successfully especially in 2017 when vo-
ting for the President.
As seen previously, the populations of Liberia and Sierra Leone will face
another threat in the future which is the propagation of the Ebola virus
which has reached alarming figures in the region. If Johnson Sirleaf ma-
nages to contain the chaos and instability caused by the Ebola outbreak,
the country will have progressed greatly. Social tensions will need to be
171
controlled, the opposition consulted in the decision-making process, the

basic needs covered and the economic activity boosted.
The severity of the disease pushes to the background other highly rele-
vant aspects such as constitutional reforms, the will for a credible reform
of land ownership or the implementation of a reliable and efficient justice
system.
Chronology
Liberia
1943: William Tubman is elected President of the Republic.

1944: Liberia declares war to the Axis powers.
1951: Native owners and women vote for the first time.
1971: Death of William Tubman. William Tolbert Jr. Becomes the new
President.
1974: Liberia accepts the help of the Soviet Union for the first time.
1979: An increase in the price of rice causes riots followed by various
deaths.
1980: Samuel Doe stages a coup d’État. President Tolbert and various
ministers are assassinated.
1985: After permitting the activity of political parties, Doe wins presiden-
tial elections that showed no signs of democratic safeguards.
1090: Attack of the newly-founded FPNL led by Charles Taylor against
Samule Doe’s government.
1990: The CEDEAO sends peacekeeping forces to Liberia. Doe is executed
by a breakaway faction of the FPNL.
1991: Failure of a national unity government instigated by the CEDEAO.
-- Taylor’s forces attack the international African contingent. The CE-
DEAO troops manage to defeat the offensive and expel rebels from
Monrovia.
1994: A dismantling schedule is established.
1995: Signing of a peace agreement.
1996: New armed groups start to act against Monrovia.
1997: Taylor wins presidential elections which international observers
deemed free and fair.
172
1999: Government crackdown against rebels settled in the north of the

country. Border skirmishes involving Guinean military units.
2001: New weapons embargo by the United Nations against Liberia.
Taylor is accused of illegal trafficking of diamonds and armament.
2003: Rebel forces are 10 kilometers away from.
-- Intensification of combats in July.
-- Arrival in August of new forces sent by the CEDEAO.
-- Deployment of United Nations personnel in August.
2005: Ellen Johnson Sirleaf is elected as President.
2006: Creation of the Commission for Truth and Reconciliation.
-- Accused of war crimes, Taylor is brought before the Special Court
for Sierra Leone.
2007: The United Nations’ embargo against the exporting of Liberian dia-
monds is lifted.
2011: Johnson Sirleaf is reelected as President.
2014: Ebola outbreak in Liberia.
Sierra Leone
1961: Proclamation of the country’s independence.

1978: Approval of a new constitution that defines Sierra Leone as a single
party republic governed by the APC.
1985: Joseph Saidu Momo is appointed as President.
1987: Momo declares a state of economic emergency in the whole of the
country.
1991: A civil war instigated by the Revolutionary United Front breaks out.
1992: Momo is overthrown by a coup d’État.
1996: New coup d’État that puts an end to the government of Strasser.
Ahmad Tejan Kabbah is elected President and signs a peace agreement
with RUF rebels led by Sankoh.
1997: New coup against Kabbah who is overthrown by a military junta.
Kabbah flees to Guinea.
1998: Nigeria leads CEDEAO troops that manage to reestablish Kabbah’s
government.
1999: The RFU launches an attack against Freetown, which is defeated by
EcoNOG’s troops following intense fighting.
173
Geo-political indicators
Source: CIA World Facts Book.
174
Bibliography
ARTHUR, PETER: «Africa: Lessons for the Future» Africa Today, vol. 57, nº
2, winter 201.
DÍEZ ALCALDE, J. «¿Qué es la CEDEAO? Fortalezas y debilidades para en-
frentar el conflicto de Mali» («What is the CEDEAO? Strengths and
weaknesses to face the conflict in Mali»). Document for Analysis 11-
2013, Spanish Institute of Strategic Studies. (CEDEAO: Communauté
Economique des Etats de l’Afrique de l’Ouest; ECOWAS: Economic
Community of West African States)
DOWDEN, Richard: «Ebola outbreak: what West Africa can learn from Ugan-
da». African Arguments, 20 August 2014.
ENUKA, CHUKA: «United Nations and ECOWAS Joint Intervention in Sier-
ra-Leonean Conflict: An Analysis of the Problems of Peacekeeping,
Peacemaking and Peace Enforcement». The IUP Journal of International
Relations, Vol. VI, No. 3, pp. 52-66, July 2012.
FERNÁNDEZ TRESGUERRES, José A: «Charles Ghankay Taylor: primer Jefe
de Estado condenado por un tribunal penal internacional». («Charles
Ghankay Taylor: first Head of Stated condemned by an International
criminal tribunal»). Spanish Institute of Strategic Studies, Documento
Marco nº 17, December 2012.
GIFRA DURALL, J. «20 años de operaciones de paz de Naciones Unidas como
instrumento de protección humanitaria», («20 years of UN peace-keep-
ing operations as an instrument for human protection») Documento de
Opinión 86 2011, Spanish Institute of Strategic Studies.
HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH. Human Rights abuse in Sierra Leone Mining
boom, February 2014.
Waging War to Keep the Peace: The ECOMOG Intervention and Human Rights.
Human Rights Reports, June 1993.
KRAMER, Reed: «Liberia: A Casualty of the Cold War’s End». Africa Notes
795, Center for Strategic and International Studies, July 1995.
Lawrence, Michael: «Vertical integration and persistent causes of conflict
in Sierra Leone». Centre for International Governance Innovation, Oc-
tober 2012.
UNITED NATIONS, GENERAL SECRETARY: Reports 27 and 28 on Liberia.
March and August 2014.
VAN KRAAIJ, F: Liberia, past and present. http://www.liberiapastandpre-
sent.org.
VRAGOVICH, Amanda: «Sierra Leone: freedom of information is one thing,
freedom of speech is another», Think Africa Press, 7 November 2013.
175
Central African Republic: an open conflict, a remote Chapter
peace seven
Jesús Díez Alcalde
Summary
On March 24, 2013, the coup carried out by Michel Djotodia at the head
of the Seleka coalition opened the most atrocious and turbulent period
undergone by the Central African Republic since its independence. The
arrival in power of the Selekas, an amalgam of rebel groups with a Mos-
lem majority, unchained a spiral of chaos and violence which sowed the
country with blood and desolation. In reaction to such barbarity, the Anti
Balaka militias were formed, mostly made up from Christian and animist
communities. Within a very few months, clashes between the two fac-
tions spread throughout the country, at the same time that the religious
aspect, fomented by the political leaders, became the falsified «identity
badge» of the conflict. In December, international forces began to deploy
in the Central African Republic, but they failed to halt the offensive of ha-
tred and vengeance of the Anti Balaka against all Moslems.
In January of 2014, Djotodia was forced to resign in Yamena (Chad), and
the National Assembly elected Catherine Samba-Panza as interim Pre-
sident of the Central African Republic. Since then, she has attempted to
set in motion a resolution of the conflict and a political transition, which
was to terminate with an electoral process in February of 2015: a clearly
unrealistic date. Currently, and thanks to the international military pre-
sence, the situation has improved, although security continues to be the
177
most urgent and challenging priority. In the meantime, the country is now
split in two: the Seleka in the northeast and east, from where they threa-
ten secession, and the Anti Balaka in the western enclaves. Within this
complicated scenario, the Brazzaville Peace Accord-repeatedly broken-
and the new transition government have, for the moment, generated no
expectations. Today, the sectarian and religious conflicts continue to rage,
and the achievement of peace is a very remote possibility.
Key words
Central African Republic, Seleka, Anti Balaka, Michel Djotodia, Catherine

Samba-Panza, Operation Sangaris, MISCA, MINUSCA, EURFOR and RCA.
178
Central African Republic: an open conflict, a remote...
Introduction
Since its colonial emancipation in 1960, the Central African Republic

has been drowning in a long agony which exploded into a violent and
uncommon conflict in March of 2013. The motives: for over five decades,
and outside the international media spotlights, the colonial-period lega-
cy, the endemic corruption, and the bad governance, together with the
ancestral intercommunitary rivalries, have undermined any faint trace
of national identity, and made it impossible to gain the confidence of the
Central Africans in their national leaders. Now, the country is devasta-
ted, adrift and split in two: in their respective territorial strongholds, the
two rival factions impose their own law in the face of a total absence
of a State. Today, any talk of peace and stability for the country sounds
utopian, despite the deployment of international forces; much more so
do proposals for the reinstatement of a real and effective democracy
which, in any case, has never existed. Definitively, a greater interna-
tional commitment is necessary: if the true objective is to recover the
Central African Republic as a State, the effort must be still broader and
more demanding.
In order to understand the current conflict, it is necessary to look back.
To speak of Statehood, democracy and good governance in the Central
African Republic,--one of the most underdeveloped and poverty-stric-
ken countries on earth—has been and is an impossibility. Coups have
set the rhythm of the national presidencies, and therefore of their po-
litical dynamics: of the six national Presidencies, until the arrival of In-
terim President Catherine Samba-Panza in January of 2014, five as-
sumed power by force of arms. As a result, nepotism, corruption and
underdevelopment are a malign constant in the evolution of this African
country. In addition, her security and police forces have been made the
tools of the successive governments, which have basically ignored the
effective security of the population. Over time, their political partiality,
the continuous internal strife and their progressive inoperability—they
are now practically corralled in the Bangui capital—have converted the
entire country into a fertile and uncontrolled field for every kind of illicit
traffic, and from this many armed groups—domestic or foreign, rebel,
criminal or self-defensive--have benefitted, carrying the country into a
fathomless abyss.
In spite of this disheartening scenario, the Central African Republic
never suffered from a domestic conflict of great magnitude. Although
the various communities always fought for their survival, it was ne-
cessary for the Seleka rebel alliance—with a wide Moslem majority
and led by Michel Djotodia—to wrench power from President Bozize,
in March of 2013, setting off a bloody spiral of chaos and violence. It
took very little time for resurgence of the old self-defensive militias,
179
the so-called Anti Balaka—associated in very simplistic fashion with

the Christian religion—which arrived en mass in the capital, Bangui,
in December of 2014, and began to wreak bloody vengeance on all
Moslems.
International, and especially regional, pressure obliged Djotodia to
abandon power in January of 2014. Since then, Interim President Ca-
therine Samba-Panza has been attempting to halt the violence and
enter the path of restoration of stability and democracy, in addition
to promoting and managing foreign support. With this intention, and
with nothing in hand with which to confront anarchy, she has been
obliged to deposit all responsibility in the French operation Sangaris,
the African mission MISCA and the European forces of EUFOR CAR,
which, within a very hostile environment, have managed to reduce the
clashes in Bangui and in a few other localities of the country. The cea-
se-fire between the Seleka and the Anti Balaka, however, achieved in
July of 2014, does not, at least at this time, seem to augur an end to
the conflict, least of all when its repercussions on the ground have
been almost imperceptible. On the horizon, the deployment of a Uni-
ted Nations operation as of September 2014 and the holding of Pre-
sidential Elections in February of 2015—practically unfeasible—stand
as the principal goals for the beginning of the restitution of peace and
governability in the country.
How much time, and what, is necessary to halt the violence, to reconcile
a people devastated by vengeance and hatred, to raise a democracy and
advance development, when the country is destroyed? At the background
of these questions stands the complex «road map» essential for the reso-
lution of this conflict and the construction of a new Central African Repu-
blic. With the objective of finding the answers, this chapter analyses the
conflict—from its antecedents up to the current situation—as well as the
role played by the international community; and seeks, in the first place,
to diagnose the problem facing us and, above all, to take the measure of
the effort required for its solution.
Antecedents to the conflict
For nearly seventy years, the present-day Central African Republic

was subject to French colonial power. In 1894, France established
the territory of Oubangui-Chari, with reference to the two principal
rivers which traverse it, which became the new and infamous ad-
ministrative entity for the Sudanese tribes settled in the region, to
which they had arrived fleeing from the fearsome Peuls, 1 and later,
1
The Peuls -also known as Fulanis, Pulaars, Fulbes or Fulfudes-are an immense no-
madic people, Moslem cattle- breeders extending across the entire Sahel, whose origin
180
from the dominion of slavery. As in so many other colonies, the early

arrival of European companies of exploitation—fundamentally of mi-
ning and of cotton cultivation—disrupted the tribal social dynamics
and co-existence and destroyed the local subsistence economy of the
African peoples, which they would never again recover. From 1920
onwards, the establishment of French Equatorial Africa meant that
the present-day Central African territory was governed from Braz-
zaville—currently the capital of the Republic of the Congo—a circum-
stance which relegated this colony to marginal status and preven-
ted the development of solid structures of Statehood before colonial
emancipation. Nonetheless, and despite the extreme harshness of
the colonial power and the indelible footprint which it left on the
country, nothing improved with the peaceful arrival of national inde-
pendence, on August 13 th, 1960. Since then, the history of the Central
African Republic—a land-locked country in the midst of an unstable
and turbulent region -has been determined by a disorderly series
of despotic and corrupt governments, by the plundering of its vast
natural resources, and by the constant proliferation of rebel groups;
all of it enveloped by a major lack of social cohesion. A perverse sce-
nario which makes up the background of the current collapse of the
country, but which also covers up the deepest and structural causes
of a sectarian conflict, fomented from the seats of power, which has
now caused thousands of deaths2 and nearly a million domestic dis-
placed persons as well as refugees outside the country -512,000 in
Bangui alone- according to the United Nations- and has given rise to
an enormous humanitarian crisis.3
is traced back to the mingling of black peoples from the Horn of Africa with Arab tribes.
In the Central African Republic, as in so many other African countries, the Peuls, without
permission, cross the lands of sedentary and agricultural peoples-mostly Christian and
animist-during migratory periods, which even today continues to provoke constant in-
ter-communal clashes.
2
In a conflict as virulent and turbulent as that of the Central African Republic, it
is extremely complicated to estimate the death toll. The United Nations puts the
figure at more than ten thousand, but other organizations, present on the ground,
such as Doctors Without Frontiers, believe that the number may be far higher.
Central African Republic death toll could exceed previous estimates. Reuters,
16/07/14. Available at: http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/
jul/16/central-african-republic-death-toll-msf.
3
« As of 21st February, 2.5 million people—more than half the population of the coun-
try—needed humanitarian aid. Nearly 700,000 Central Africans had been displaced wi-
thin the borders of the country Over 288,000 were refugees in neighboring countries.
Secretary General’s Report on the Central African Republic S/2014/142, of 3rd March.
Available at http://www.un.org/es/comun/docs/?symbol=S/2014/142 Date of consul-
tation: 07/06/14.
181
Map 1 Central African Republic: territorial political structure.
The progressive decadence of State power
After the death in 1959 of Barthelemy Boganda, true architect of indepen-

dence and founder of the Movement for the Social Evolution of Black Afri-
ca (SEBAM), David Dacko took the reins of colonial emancipation and be-
came the first President of the Central African Republic, with the explicit
support of France, in 1960. Only one year later, he signed the first agree-
ments on cooperation and defense with the French government, which,
although secret, have remained in force practically down to our days. His
authoritarian mandate, with the SEBAM as the sole party, was marked by
misgovernment and corruption, as well as by a disturbing alliance with
Communist China. Within this framework, the hopes of the people for the
benefits of the yearned-for independence vanished. Only five years la-
ter, Dacko was overthrown by Colonel Jean-Bedel Bokassa, who initiated
the coup-oriented dynamic which has marked the political history of this
African nation. As an implacable military dictator, and self-proclaimed
Emperor in 1977, Bokassa established the few national power structures
which still remain today, in addition to initiating the development of a ne-
twork of infrastructures. Thus, and despite his eccentric and iron-fisted
rule, Bokassa achieved major social support within the country, and enjo-
yed as well the backing of France and of a good deal of the Western world.
182
Notwithstanding this, the great and intolerable massacre of defenseless

citizens—including 200 children—in April of 1979 in the capital, Bangui,4
caused the former colonial power to launch Operation Barracuda—the
first French military intervention since independence—to overthrow
Emperor Bokassa and restore David Dacko to the Presidency, who, with
this new opportunity, again failed to stabilize the country. In 1981, a new
and bloodless military coup, with the knowledge and consent of France,
brought Colonel Andre-Dieudonne Kolingba—a southerner and from the
Yakoma ethnic minority--to the national Presidency, with an army stuffed
with members of his own ethnic group5 and at the exclusive service of
his power: a perverse custom which has been maintained to this day. His
mandate was marked by tribal clashes and a permanent economic crisis,
until the wave of democratization which arrived in Africa in the nineties,
together with rising regional pressure, forced him to call the first free and
multi-party elections in the Central African Republic.
In 1993, the results made the northerner Ange-Felix Patasse the first and
only President who has arrived in power legitimately and democratically
in the nation’s history; but, in spite of the hopes raised by his election,
his government turned out to be disastrous for the Central African Repu-
blic. On the one hand, he proved unable to win the favor of the Army, and
its necessary re-organization did not come about; on the other hand, he
encouraged social disputes enormously, with the sole purpose of con-
trolling and exploiting the natural resources. At the end of 1996, with the
country sunken in poverty and on the brink of civil war, the second French
intervention was decisive in halting the violence, and in forcing the achie-
vement of the Bangui Accords, which installed a government of national
unity, as well as approving the deployment of the Inter-African Mission of
Intervention and Vigilance of the Bangui Accords (MISAB). With an entity
of nearly 3,000 military personnel from six African countries, this mission
initiated the international presence in the Central African Republic, which
has remained constant—with different entities, mandates and organiza-
tion—until the present day (see Annex 8.1:International Missions in the
Central African Republic). Despite the fact that this new scenario brought
about a certain level of stability, Patasse failed to calm discontent wi-
thin the national army, which continued its mutinies and claims—among
them, payment of salaries—against a weakened and ever more corrupt
4
The original reason for these demonstrations was the obligation, imposed by Bokas-
sa, for schoolchildren to wear a photograph of the dictator printed on their uniforms.
5
At the end of Kolingba’s mandate, in 1993, more than 70% of military personnel
were ethnic Yakomas, who only represented 5% of the Central African population. This
permanent dynamic, of populating the Army with communities loyal to the President of
the moment, has caused weapons to become uncontrolled in the hands of civilians, in
addition to undermining the confidence of of the population in the arbitrary and ineffec-
tive security forces. IHS Jane’s. Jane’s Sentinel Security Assessment—Central Africa
Security, 10/04/13.
183
government. The dismissal of the Head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Ge-
neral Francois Bozize, was the final trigger behind the forging of a new
military coup. With several hundred military allies, Bozize took refuge in
Chad—with the connivance of its President Idriss Deby—and from the-
re launched successive assaults on the power of the State, which failed
thanks to the external aid of Libya and of rebel Congolese movements.
Finally, on March 15th of 2003, he succeeded in overthrowing Patasse and
proclaiming himself President of the Central African Republic. The ge-
neralized discontent of the population, weary of the despotism and the
abysmal governance of Patasse, meant that Bizize was received as a pa-
nacea for the Central African misfortunes, but he soon showed that he
would do little to support democracy and stability.
After his arrival in power, Bozize dissolved the National Assembly and ins-
talled the National Council on Transition; in addition, he postponed until
2005 the promised democratic elections, in which he was finally raised to
power, in spite of claims of fraud by the opposition. During his mandate, he
also failed to control diamond production6, which, far from redounding to
the benefit of the national economy, he maintained at the mercy of illegal
traffickers, when not at that of his sole benefit. This circle of misgovernance
led, from 2006 onwards, to new armed rebellion in the northern and mostly
Moslem prefectures, denouncing the political and economic disdain of the
Bangui government for this region. Bozize denied the existence of such a
feeling and ignored the complaints for too long. As a result, in December
of 2008, in extremis and in face of the rising threat of an unpredictable civil
war, he assented to a broad and inclusive dialogue to calm rebel anxieties,
which concluded with the signing of the Global Peace Accord of Libreville
(Gabon). This political pact foresaw the installation of a consensus govern-
ment, the initiation of a process of national reconciliation and the activation
of a program of disarmament, demobilization and reintegration of the ar-
med militias. Predictably, Bozize failed to comply with any of his commit-
ments, and his blinkered attitude became the perfect excuse for the rebel
rising which, in 2013, achieved his overthrow, subsequently submerging
the country in the most absolute and violent anarchy.
The armed rebellion and Djotodia’s disastrous government
With the background of the failed political accords, the only salvation
for the political opposition was to guarantee that the general elections
6
The illegal traffic in diamonds has been a constant in the Central African Republic.
Despite being, since 2003, a member of the Kimberley Club, 30% of the annual pro-
duction leaves the country illegally: a lucrative business benefitting all kinds of rebel
groups, and even the national government. In May of 2013, the Central African Repu-
blic was expelled from the Club for its inability to control the illegal traffic, which was
nourishing the armed conflict. Available at Car crash-Political turbulence in the Central
African Republic. IHS Jane’s, Jane’s Intelligence Review, 31/05/13.
184
planned for 2010 would be more transparent and with this, achieve the
«democratic departure» of Bozize from power. But the government, on
the pretext that the insecurity existing in a great part of the country pre-
vented the free exercise of the right to vote, put off Presidential and Le-
gislative elections until 2011, and these confirmed the Bozize presidency
with 64.4% of the votes on the first round. Once again, the opposition par-
ties gave no credibility to the election results, despite a major presen-
ce of international observers; and the refurbished political scene—with
a much-strengthened Bozize—exacerbated the demands of the rebel
groups, now plotting an armed rising as the only way to achieve their
objectives. As on other occasions, President Bozize ignored all signs of
alarm, and only international pressure forced him to initiate, at the end of
2011, new negotiations with the political opposition, which, as on count-
less previous occasions, concluded with no agreement reached.
While political conversations remained stalled, the practical absence of go-
vernment power and of security forces in the north smoothed the way for the
appearance of new insurgent movements, mostly Moslem. Throughout 2012,
old and new rebel factions grouped around the Union of Democratic Forces
for Reunification—a veteran group which erupted onto the scene during the
northern rebellion of 2004 and was now led by Michel Djotodia—and forged
a previously unheard of armed coalition which they called Seleka («Alliance»,
in the official Sango language). And so, departing the prefecture of Haute-Ko-
tto (on the Sudanese border), after occupying and devastating the towns
they found in their path, the Seleka rebels—initially some 5,000—advanced
towards Damara (barely 80 km. from Bangui) where they arrived, in January
of 2013, with more than 20,0007 proselytes of the insurrection. Among these
were hundreds of mercenaries from Sudan and Chad, who only sought to
collect tribute for supporting the insurgents, in addition to sacking and plun-
dering everything within their reach. From Damara, and before launching
their assault on power, they sent an ultimatum to Bozize: he was to commit
himself to complying with everything agreed to in the 2008 accords, to halt
the plunder of natural resources—an activity of which, ironically, the rebels
were protagonists of record in the northeast of the country—and to relieve
the marginalization of the northern regions.
Once again, the capital of Gabon became the scene of renewed peace
conversations for the Central African Republic. In January of 2013, the
government of Bozize, representatives of the opposition parties and lea-
ders of the Seleka group signed the Libreville Accord, which installed a
national coalition government, in which Djotodia occupied the office of
vice Prime Minister. But this sharing of power did not calm the disputes
between the two leaders. The celebrations of the tenth anniversary of the
7
Deiros, T. Central African Republic: The Invention of a Religious Conflict. IEEE, 16/06/14.
Available at http://www.ieee.es/contenido/noticias/2014/06/DIEEEO67-2014.html.
185
arrival in power of the President, March 15th, were the definitive trigger of
the revolt. During his speech, Bozize encouraged young people to «resist
Seleka»,8 which for the rebels represented proof that the accords had
been one more deception. In response, Michel Djotodia declared an end to
the cease-fire, ordered the armed coalition to advance on Bangui and, on
March 24th, usurped power, with hardly any resistance from the regular
army, and in view of the inaction of the French (Operation Boali) and Afri-
can (MICOPAX) forces deployed in the capital.
In April, after proclaiming himself the first Moslem President of the Cen-
tral African Republic, Djotodi committed himself, with the signing of the
Yamena Declaration9, to initiate a period of political transition and to avoid
social confrontations; but all he achieved was the outbreak of brutal sec-
tarian violence in Bangui; and within a few months, that anarchy and bar-
barity spread throughout the country.
Djotodia’s decisions—suspension of the Constitution and of the National
Assembly—were a precursor to disaster; it was soon evident that, beyond
overthrowing Bozize and plundering the natural resources, the Selekas
had no governmental program whatsoever, and lacked any hieratical
structure or political ideology. Security was their first victim; on the one
hand, they ordered their militiamen to integrate into the Central African
Armed Forces (FACA), which occasioned numerous desertions on the part
of non-Moslems; on the other, they constantly instigated religious con-
flict, unprecedented in the Central African Republic, which rapidly beca-
me the most damaging «identity badge» of the conflict. Within a few days,
the brutal Selekas, together with the Chadian and Sudanese mercenaries,
sowed the entire country with massive massacres, sacking and destruc-
tion, with utter impunity—the judicial system10 abruptly disappeared—
and towards a defenseless population who only found protection in im-
8
Vircoulon,T. Failure has many fathers: the coup in the Central African Republic. Think Afri-
can Press, 28/03/13. Available at: http://thinkafricapress.com/central-african-republic-fai-
lure-has-many-fathers-coup-central-african-republic. Date of consultation: 08/01/14.
9
In the political field, the Djotodia government was a catalogue of foolishness and co-
rruption. Following the signing of the Yamena Declaration, as proof of his «conciliatory
will», he kept Bozize’s Prime Minister, Nicolas Tiangaye, as head of the Council on Natio-
nal Transition, but the announcement that the Presidential elections would be set back
a year, until February of 2016, caused the political opposition to mutiny in the face of
the evidence that his true intention was to perpetuate himself, as had previous Central
African Presidents, in power. More information: Díez, J. «Chaos and Violence in the Cen-
tral African Republic, and the reaction of the international community.» IEEE, 22/01/14.
Available at htp://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/docs analisis/2014/DIEEEA05-2014
Caos RCA JDA.pdf. Consultation date: 28/06/14.
10
According to Human Rights Watch (HRW), in January of 2014, when Catherine Sam-
ba-Panza assumed the interim Presidency, there was not a single penitentiary open
in the entire country, and all courts had ceased to function. During the Djotodia gover-
nment, there was absolute impunity regarding the serious crimes committed by all
the armed factions. Central African Republic: ICC Investigation Needed. HRW, 26/06/14.
186
provised refugee camps and in religious missions11. Their cruelty had no

limits, as the non-governmental organizations and the Catholic churches
were also targets of their merciless attacks: «The entire country, region
by region,» said the Bishop of Bangassou, the Spaniard Juan Jose Agui-
rre—«has been sacked as war booty; they have stamped on it, robbed,
raped, offended (...) These are the new leaders we have.»12
Table 1. Security and defense forces in the Central African Republic.(Main source: Jane’s)
Available at: http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/06/26/central-african-republic-icc-in-

vestigation-needed. Consultation date: 16/08/14.
11
The two centers of Salesian missions in Bangui (Galabadja and Damala) came to shel-
ter, at the height of the conflict, more than 65,000 displaced Moslems and Christians--, Fa-
ther Agustín Cuevas told the author of this analysis, in a conversation they held in August of
2014: »Now, the situation has improved, but more international support is necessary for the
population to recover the lost peace. The feeling of hatred and vengeance is very strong, and
the violence will not be halted until disarmament of all factions is achieved.»
12
In his book of testimony, «I am only the voice of my people. A Bishop in Central Africa»,
(PCC Publishers, Madrid 2014), Bishop Juan Jose Aguirre relates the genesis of the current
conflict, and especially, tells of the cruelty of the attacks of both factions on the population,
with no distinction by confessions. Currently, in his diocese of Bangassou and thanks to his
mediation, a commission of reconciliation has been formed between Christians and Moslems:
«This commission has stopped the formation of Anti Balaka groups which went out to assault
those Moslems remaining in Bangassou. Quite a few, in comparison with other cities, whence
they have fled headlong.» (Conversation with the author of this analysis, 31st/08/14).
187
Without the protection of national or international forces to shield

them, and in response to the rebel attacks, many civilians—in the
majority, Christians and animists—joined the former militias of
self-defense, born in the 90’s to protect the rural population from
bandits and from the Peul cattle farmers who were usurping their
land. Under the designation «Anti Balaka»—loosely translating to
«anti-machete»13--and with many deserters from the Armed Forces
as their allies, they began their offensives against «every Moslem»,
who were charged, across the board and unreasoningly, with being
accomplices of the Selekas. Within a few months, hatred and ven-
geance took hold among the population, and this in the face of the
passivity, and with the connivance, of the Djotodia government. In the
meantime, the international community attempted to agree on a way
to stop the virulent outbreak of violence in the central African coun-
try, which was beginning to produce alarming symptoms of turning
into genocide.
In September of 2013, in light of the serious drift of events and un-
der heavy regional pressure, Djotodia ordered the Seleka coalition to
be dissolved and disarmed14, but many of his former allies, who had
never recognized him as President, refused to comply. Since then, the
disloyal factions—named as ex-Selekas and re-baptized, in May of
2014, as the Revolutionary Forces15—began to return to their bastions
in the eastern prefectures of the country, at the same time that the
Chadians and Sudanese were going back to their countries with their
pockets full of blood and booty. In barely seven months, Djotodia’s go-
vernment, now lacking any strength, was presiding over the utter co-
llapse of the State and the most chaotic and violent period in Central
African history, although this did not seem to them to be sufficient
reason to abandon power.
It was not until December that the spark which finally brought about
his resignation was produced, when the Anti Balaka deployed with
uncontrolled violence in the capital, drastically reversing the situa-
13
Since the appearance of these militias, the communication media have widely
spread about that «balaka» is a word from Sango, the local majority language, which
may be translated as «machete». However, another opinion holds that the expression
«anti AK bullets» refers to the gri gri, or amulets which, hanging around the neck and
according to animist beliefs, protects against the AK rifles of the rebels and sackers.
14
CAR’s Djotodia dissolves Seleka rebel group. France 24, 14/09/13. Available at
http://www.france24.com/en/20130913-central-african-republic-djotoda-dissol-
ves-seleka-rebel-group/. Consultation date: 08/10/13.
15
Duhem, V. Central Africa: New organization of the Selekas, the hard wing of the
commandos. Jeune Afrique, 22/05/14. Available at: http://www.jeuneafrique.com/
Article/ARTJAWEB20140522122737/centrafrique-seleka-crise-centrafricaine-nourre-
dine-adam-crise-centrafricaine-centrafrique-nouvel-organigramme-de-la-seleka-l-ai-
le-dure-aux-commandes.html.
188
tion—until then dominated by the Selekas—and began their attacks

on all Moslems, without exception. In the international and regional
environment, there was no longer any doubt but that Djotodia, unable
to control this new spiral of violence, must put an end to his appalling
mandate, which by now was a clear menace to the entire region. On
January 10th, at a meeting of the Economic Community of Central Afri-
can States in Yamena, his former ally, Chadian President Idriss Deby,
forced him to renounce the Presidency, after which he fled to Benin.
Only ten days later, on January 20th, the National Assembly of the
Central African Republic elected Catherine Samba-Panza, until then
Mayor of Bangui, as new Interim President, with the enormous and
complicated responsibility of halting the violence, accelerating the re-
construction of the police and security forces and, much more impor-
tantly, initiating a process of transition for the establishment of a real
democracy throughout the country.
189
Tables 2 and 3. Principal non-State actors in the Central African Republic.
The plunder of natural resources
In spite of its vast natural resources, which properly administered would

in themselves guarantee national progress, the Central African Republic
is among the least developed and most poverty-stricken countries in the
world16. All of its governments have been accomplices and participants—to a
greater or lesser degree—in the plunder of the resources; but none of them
reached, and in such a short time, the levels of depredation and extortion of
Djotodia and his henchmen. The reserves of gold, diamonds and wood ex-
tend practically throughout the Central African Republic, but have never been
exploited for the benefit of the State and its population, but rather for tho-
se holding political power, and above all, the traffickers and armed groups.
When they arrived in power, the Selekas already controlled the mines and
illicit traffic in the east of the country (Bria and Sam-Ouandja), but—as the
International Crisis Group states in its report The Central African Crisis: From
16
In 2014, the Index of Human Development, put out by the United Nations Develop-
ment Program (UNDP), situated the Central African Republic in 185th place out of a total
of 187 countries. Human Development Report 2014. Available at: http://hdr.undp.org/
en/2014-report/download.
190
Predation to Stabilization17: «the expansion of their area of influence was rapid

and strategic. In their advance towards the west of the country, the leaders
of the coalition immediately set their sights on the principal mining zones.»
And so, the control of the diamonds became a casus belli, «who controls the
diamonds has the real power», and caused many of the craftsmen of the
sector to swell the ranks of the rebel groups: «In one of history’s ironies,» the
report continues, «in the east, many merchants joined the Selekas to take
vengeance for the massive sacking perpetrated by Bozize during Operation
Closing Gate in 2008,18 while in the west, some miners joined the Anti Balaka
to get even for the atrocities and the extortion committed by the Selekas.»
In addition to the diamonds, the Selekas also enriched themselves through
the smuggling of ivory, in connivance with Chadian and Sudanese traffickers,
and with the illicit trade in gasoline, which they stole from official stations for
resale on the black market. In total, during Djotodia’s Presidency, the plun-
der of resources and illegal trafficking intensified to an alarming extent, the
State lost any source of finance and the precarious State economy sank even
further: there were no funds to undertake any kind of reform, or to pay those
rebels who had raised him to power, nor the military, nor public servants.
The religious pretext aggravates the conflict
From the beginning of the conflict, the communication media have generally
emphasized the religious aspect as its principal cause, when in fact this is
only a dramatic consequence, fomented from the seat of political power—
both Bozize and Djotodia and their followers—and manipulated in their own
benefit. This message has permeated into the two rebel factions, the Seleka
and the Anti Balaka, who have set themselves up as the «defenders of their
religions», and on this pretext, have intensified their attacks on other confes-
sions, now supposedly enemies. «The two bands», remarks journalist Trini-
dad Deiros,19 «are defined as the «Moslem alliance» and «Christian militias»,
respectively, ignoring the fact that their actions obey no religious creed what-
soever, no religious leader or institution has supported them, and in addition
the bulk of their actions points above all to a thirst for money and power.»
This is so far true that, from within and without the country, the need is be-
ing emphasized to deny religion as the cause of this conflict; although not
ignoring the fact that the confessional dimension determines the dynamic
of the confrontation, and has already caused enormous social and territorial
17
The Central African Crisis: From Predation to Stabilization. International Crisis
Group, Africa Report nº 219, 17/06/14.
18
In 2008, the diamond merchants, mostly Moslem, refused to accept the conditions
imposed by Bozize in the so-called operation «Closing Gate». In response, and in a sin-
gle day, the government confiscated all their goods.
19
Deiros, T. Central African Republic, op. cit.
191
splintering, which it will be very complicated to repair. It is also true that en-
couraging the religious nature of the conflict may produce a «call to arms»
effect on fundamentalist Islam and on jihadist groups, which according to
United Nations reports, may already be present in the Central African Repu-
blic. «The international community and the communication media underline
the religious dimension of the conflict», President Samba-Panza pointed out.
«We look at its real causes (...). Misgovernance, poverty and unequal access
to power have provoked the frustration of the children of this country.» 20
To restore the tolerance which once characterized the co-existence be-
tween the various confessions, the principal religious leaders of the
country are also working together. With this in mind, they are visiting
many towns and cities to eliminate the idea that this conflict is a war of
religion, which has, for the local media, made them recognized promoters
of peace.21 In March of 2014, the Secretary General of the United Nations,
Ban Ki Moon, received the three maximum religious authorities of the
Central African Republic: The Catholic Archbishop of Bangui, Monsignor
Nzapalainga; the President of the Islamic Council of the Central African
Republic, Imam Layam; and the President of the Evangelical Alliance, Re-
verend Guerekoyame-Gbangou, in order to thank them for their efforts in
favor of reconciliation. «Let me be clear», remarked Ban Ki Moon, «reli-
gious and ethnic affiliation is being manipulated for political purposes.»22
Currently-- thanks in great part to the presence of the international forces—

security in the Central African Republic has improved notably, although it is
still unstable and at very alarming levels: in Bangui, a «tense calm» reig-
ns, but in the rest of the country, clashes between the two factions occur in
which the defenseless population is the principal victim. In another respect,
the secessionist claims with which the former Selekas threaten grow ever
stronger, while the Anti Balaka dominate practically all of the west and nor-
thwest of the country. Thus, the country is now in a state of de facto division,
and the presence of State authority outside Bangui is practically nil, or when
it does exist, is not respected. In the political field, the situation is marked by
20
Statements by President Samba-Panza to Al Jazeera about the true reasons for
the conflict, which must be managed in order to return the country to peace. Sam-
ba-Panza: Ending conflict in CAR. Al Jazeera, 16/02/14. Available at:http://www.al-
jazeera.com/programs/talktojazeera/2014/02/catherine-samba-panza-ending-con-
flict-car-2014151128653732.html.
21
CAR’s archbishop and imam in peace drive. BBC, 08/07/14. http://www.bbc.com/
news/world/africa-26938341.
22
Central African Republic: Ban meets religious leaders, urges support for efforts to
unite communities. UN News Center, 13/03/14. Available at http://www.un.org/apps/
news/story.asp?NewsID=47351#.VAt4vGNqXQ.
192
the failed Peace Treaty signed in Brazzaville (Republic of the Congo) at the
end of July and by a new transition government, which has not awakened
great expectations. In spite of the huge challenges remaining, this scenario
little resembles the extreme degree of violence and chaos which the country
suffered from after Djotodia grabbed the power of the State, and which in-
tensified enormously following the offensive launched by the Anti Balaka in
early December of 2013. It was at that time when the Anti Balaka, who had
reorganized in the western region of the country, erupted into the capital,
better armed and with a fierce thirst for revenge. In barely a few hours, they
took over the most dangerous and densely populated areas of the capital,
and began the persecutions and massacres against «everything Moslem»,
accompanied by sacking of their shops and their homes. The Moslems—to
the Anti Balaka, all accomplices of the Selekas—fled from their homes, and
only found refuge in churches and mosques, in the dispensaries of aid orga-
nizations, or on the outskirts of the airport, held by French forces, into which
more than a hundred thousand Central Africans crammed themselves.
The situation also worsened drastically in the west and northwest, especially in
Bouar, Bozoum and Bossangoa, where hostilities among armed groups
produced numerous victims and sackings in the months of December and
January. In other cities, such as Carnot, Berberati, or Boda—areas of great
diamond production—the Moslems found themselves obliged to withdraw
into authentic ghettos, where they were at the mercy of the Anti Balaka vio-
lence, whose sole and proclaimed objective was to annihilate or expel the
entire Islamic minority (some 15%) of the country. All in all, the only way out
was the massive and forced flight of some 300,000 Moslems23—protected
by French and African forces—who found refuge in Cameroon and Chad,
and in the north-eastern prefectures of the country. This shameful exodus
has caused their virtual disappearance from the entire region dominated
by the Anti Balaka. In addition, their return, for the moment, is unthinka-
ble. In Bangui, where more than 100,000 Moslems lived before the conflict
broke out, barely 3,000 are left, and all of those in the turbulent PK5 neigh-
borhood, which is now defended by Spanish troops.24
From their dominant position in the conflict in the center and west of the
country, the Anti Balaka attempted to extend their power towards the east,
the absolute fortress territory of the Seleka rebels. At the end of June, Bam-
bari, a locality 380 kilometers to the northeast of Bangui, became the prin-
cipal focus of the violence and the nerve center of the demarcation line be-
23
Central African Republic : Siege on Capital’s Muslims. Human Rights Watch,
28/03/14. Available at: http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/03/27/central-african-repu-
blic-siege-capital-s-muslims. Consultation date: 21/05/14.
24
Deiros, T. Spanish elite soldiers to protect Bangui’s last Moslems. The Confiden-
tial, 02/08/14. Available at: Http://www.elconfidential.com/mundo/2014-08-02/
soldados-de-elite-españoles-para-proteger-a-los-ultimos-musulmanes-de-bangui
164955/#. Consultation date: 13/08/14.
193
tween the Moslem and Christian zones: a «frontier» which—from south to

north—has split the territory of the Central African Republic. Now, the Seleka
have settled their central headquarters in the city, making it «the place from
which the Moslems do not intend to withdraw.»25 ; facing them, the Anti Ba-
laka, still disposed to take control of the city. All of this occurs in an enclave
where, until the beginning of July, peaceful co-existence reigned between
Moslems and Christians. In this context of generalized violence, it was a very
complicated undertaking for the Peace Agreement, signed the 24th of July
and which is analyzed below, to halt the violence. On the contrary, as stated in
the report in the September issue of Crisis Watch (International Crisis Group),
armed clashes have taken place in such localities as Batangafo, Mbres, Ban-
gui or Bambari, causing a total of 120 mortal victims.26
Map 2. Current situation of the conflict (drawn up by the author).
25
Parellada,G. Bambari, The Frontier of Vengeance in the Central African Republic. El
Pais, 30/06/14. Available at: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/06/30/
actualidad/1404147606 574775.html. Consultation date: 17/07/14.
26
This report considers that, so far from stabilizing, the situation has deteriorated in
the month of August in the Central African Republic. Crisis Watch nº. 133. International
Crisis Group.01/09/14. Available at: Http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/
crisiswatch/crisiswatch-database.aspx
194
International intervention in the Central African Republic
Originally, the international community did not plan on a military intervention,

for many—including France and the United Nations—believed that Djotodia
would be able to control the Seleka rebels and direct a peaceful national transi-
tion; they also trusted that the African forces of MICOPAX—which were reinfor-
ced from the bordering countries—would be capable of halting the outbreak of
violence. None of this happened, and when the situation worsened alarmingly,
France led the military option as the only way to counter the sectarian violence
and the humanitarian crisis developing throughout the country. Finally, on De-
cember 5th, the United Nations approved Resolution 2127/2013,27 which autho-
rized the deployment of Mission International Support for the Central African
Republic under African Leadership (MISCA, in its French acronym), as well as
a French military force, whose task was to support the African mission, just as
the African Union had requested in November. This double millilitre interven-
tion was to collaborate in the protection of civilians, in the stabilization of the
country and in the restoration of State authority throughout the territory, in ad-
dition to assuring humanitarian assistance. Under the title «Operation Sanga-
ris», France began her deployment only a single day after the Resolution was
approved, involving a total of 1,600 troops—600 were already on the ground,
within Operation Boali28—in barely a few hours, thanks to the troops transpor-
ted from Gabon and Cameroon. For its part, MISCA officially took over from
MICROPAX on December 19th, when the violence in Bangui reached its height.29
Currently, MISCA is made up of 6,000 troops, led by General Mikoko, who will be
relieved by the blue helmets of MINUSCA as of September 15th; parallel to this,
Operation Sangaris is made composed of 2,000 French troops under the com-
mand of General Soriano. Both contingents deploy in Bangui, although most
of their troops are now located in different regions and cities throughout the
entire country. Since their arrival in the Central African Republic, in addition to
pacifying the capital, their principal tasks have been to protect the forced exile
of Moslems departing the country, as well as the highway which connects the
country with Cameroon; and above all, the carrying out of a number of opera-
tions of disarmament, both of the Selekas and of the Anti Balakas.30 However,
27
Resolution 2127 (2013), approved by the Security Council at its 7072nd session,
held the 5th of December. Available at: http://www.un.org/es/comun/docs/?symbol=S/
RES/2127%282013%29 Fec.
28
France deployed Operation Boali in 2002, with the objective of lending support to the
MICOPAX mission, and providing security for the M’Poko airport. In December of 2013,
it was formed of some 250 military personnel, who were reinforced at the end of March
to reach a total of 600 troops, from other French detachments in Africa. Available at:
http://www.defense.gouv.fr/operations/centrafrique/operation-boali/l-operation-boali.
Consultation date: 21/07/14.
29
More information at Diez, J. «Chaos and violence in the Central African Republic»,
op.cit.
30
In March, the first provisional report of the Commission of the African Union on the
activities of MISCA reflect with excessive optimism the situation on the ground, and the
195
and despite the demanding nature of their mission, the two operations have
been faced with considerable civilian criticism, which accuses the French and
African military personnel of ineffectiveness in protecting them from the attac-
ks of armed groups, and also of failing to maintain their impartiality. Demons-
trations in Bangui were especially vehement following the bloody attack on the
Cathedral of Fatima, on May 30th, in which 17 people died.31
The European effort: EUFOR CAR
The European Union—in light of the calls from the United Nations, the Afri-
can Union, and the Central African Republic itself—on April 1st launched the
military operation EUFOR CAR,32 which had been authorized by the Securi-
ty Council of the United Nations through Resolution 2134 on January 28th.
Their principal mission is to provide temporary support—for a period of six
months—to stabilize and give protection to the two most turbulent districts
of the capital, Bangui, with the objective of gradually turning the mission
over to MINUSCA, in addition to creating conditions facilitating humanitarian
aid. Although the process of generating forces was slower than had been
anticipated, the European Union force—under the command of French Ge-
neral Pontiès—began its deployment as of the middle of April, although it
reached its final operative capacity on June 15th. Since then, more than 750
military personnel and gendarmes have achieved—in spite of their limited
numbers—the settlement of a «tense calm» in their area of responsibility,
although instability is still the predominant reality. For the moment, EUFOR
CAR is scheduled to end its mandate on December 15th, although the Euro-
pean Service for Action Abroad of the European Union is analyzing the future
European commitment regarding the CAR. In case approval is given, it is fo-
reseeable that it will support reform of the security sector and of the judicial
system, as is now taking place in other countries such as Mali or Somalia.
Within this scenario, from the beginning of the planning of the mission, Spain
has demonstrated her total commitment to the support of this new Euro-
pean military initiative. Thus, she committed 50 Special Operations military
personnel to participation—leading, for the first time, the Special Operations
Command of an international mission—and 25 Civil Guards—with tasks of
public safety, intelligence and criminal investigation—in addition to 10 other
goals reached by the African force. (Available at: htp://www.un.org/ga/search/view doc.

asp?symbol=S/2014/172&referer=/english/&Lang=S. Consultation date:17/06/14).
More realistic, regarding the international operations deployed, is report S/2014/142
of the Secretary General of the United Nations, also dated in March. (Available at http://
www.un.org/es/comun/docs/?symbol=S/2014/142. Consultation date: 21/06/14.
31
Parellada, G., and Smith-Park, L. «Protesters lash out at peacekeepers in Central
African Republic.» CNN, 30/05/14. Available at: http://edition.cnn.com/2014/05/30/
world/africa/central-african-republic-violence/. Consultation date: 16/07/14.
32
Official Page: http://eeas.europa.eu/csdp/missions-and-operations/eufor-car/in-
dex en.htm.
196
military members in the general headquarters at Larissa (Greece) and in

Bangui. «EUFOR RCA», comments Colonel Martin, head of the Spanish con-
tingent, «has managed, in less than three months, to turn around a situation
which was absolutely blocked in Districts 3 and 5, which our operation is cen-
tered on. We have given security to the population and put in place the con-
ditions for a return to normality, which is now taking place with the recovery
of economic life, of commerce.» The effort, according to Trinidad Deiros, is
especially visible in neighborhood PK5: «in this hell where the only hope was
flight, the river of deaths halted in June. Although by then the level of violence
had already diminished throughout the city, residents of PK5 attribute the
end of the atrocities to the dissuasive presence on their streets of the Special
Operations soldiers and of the Spanish Civil Guards.33»
MINUSCA: The United Nations goes into action
With Resolution 2149/2014, approved on April 10th, the Security Council

—after months of internal debate—authorized the deployment of the Uni-
ted Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Cen-
tral African Republic (MINUSCA), which has now begun its deployment
and which, according to the planned schedule, will assume its responsi-
bilities as of September 15th. Ever since the beginning of the conflict, both
the African Union and the Central African Republic itself have requested
that the international organization become directly involved in the reso-
lution of the conflict, thus becoming the guarantor of the stabilization of
the country in the long term. «The troops on the ground must be rein-
forced», declared Catherine Samba-Panza shortly after becoming Presi-
dent. «Not only the Central African defense and security forces, but also
with the aid of the United Nations through a peace-keeping mission.»34
In achieving this objective, one determinant was the report which in the
month of March, was issued by Ban Ki Moon,35 in which he admitted that
the deployment of the international security forces—MISCA, Operation
Sangaris and EUFOR RCA—were not sufficient: «Coping with the crisis
in the Central African Republic demands the adoption of a single and in-
tegrated approach, taking the form of deployment of a multidimensional
United Nations peacekeeping mission, in which the protection of civilians
constitutes its principal priority.» In addition to protecting civilians, with
the adoption of «temporary and urgent measures of an exceptional cha-
racter» to the extent of its capacities and within its zones of deployment,
MINUSCA should concentrate on supporting the transition authorities,
both in the processes of mediation and reconciliation, as well as in the
arrest and trial of those responsible for «war crimes and crimes against
33
Deiros, T. Spanish elite soldiers to protect last Bangui Moslems, op.cit.
34
Catherine Samba-Panza: Ending conflict in CAR, op.cit.
35
Report of the Secretary General on the Central African Republic, op.cit.
197
humanity». In the same way, it will collaborate in the implementation of

a strategy for the disarming, demobilization and reintegration (the DDR
process) of ex-combatants in the reform of the security sector. Both ac-
tions are indispensable for the achievement of a settled and lasting peace
in the Central African Republic, but it will almost surely be necessary to
await their implementation until after the instalment of a democratically
elected and stable government. In order to carry out all these missions,
MINUSCA will have at its disposition a maximum of 12,000 military per-
sonnel and police, whose presence on the ground depends on the con-
tributions of the member nations, which have yet to commit a significant
number of forces. For the moment, it is only certain that the greater part
of the African troops of MISCA will be incorporated into the United Na-
tions mission36, which is totally insufficient –as has been demonstrated
on the ground—to detain the violence, and much less to cope with all the
missions of reconstruction of the State which the MINUSCA mandate
foresees.
The Brazzaville Peace Agreement and the new transition

government
With the mediation of the President of the Republic of the Congo, Denis
Sassou Nguesso, the capital at Brazzaville was the site, from the 21st to
the 23rd of July, of the Forum for National Reconciliation and Political Dia-
logue, whose limited goal was to achieve a cessation of hostilities and the
acceptance of a process of disarmament by the parties to the conflict. The
preliminaries to these conversations did not, however, bode well for their
outcome. On the one hand, the previous cease-fire and joint peace decla-
ration, signed in Bangui on July 4th, had produced no effect since, from his
headquarters in Bambari, the «General» Joseph Zoundenko—leader of
the former Selekas—claimed to have been unaware of the negotiations
for a cease-fire on the part of the political wing at Bangui and therefore
was not disposed to honor it.37 On the other hand, and an even more de-
termining factor, was the reappearance on the scene of Djotodia, after
being re-elected, on July 11th, as leader of the Selekas.38 ln addition, many
36
For the moment, nothing indicates that MINUSCA may reach the maximum autho-
rized in the medium term. On August 15th, Barbacar Gaye, Special Representative of
the Secretary General and head of MINUSCA, confirmed this point, in addition to decla-
ring that «they had recruited some qualified civilians.» Available at http://www.un.org/
News/Press/docs/2014/sc11527.doc.htm. Consultation date: 18/08/14
37
Bangui: Cease-fire between Anti Balaka and ex-Selekas, a joint declaration reported for
lack of communication. RJDH, 03/07/14. Available at: http://www.rjdh-rca.net/actulites/
actualite/bangui-cessez-le-feu-entre-anti-balaka-et-ex-seleks-une-declaration-commu-
ne-reportee-par-manque-de-coordination.html. Consukltation date: 21/07/14.
38
In addition to Djotodia, this faction of the former Selekas recognized Nourredine
Adam and Mahamed Dhaffane as « lieutenants » of the coalition. Seleka again names
198
politicians and rebel groups were claiming that the future of the country
should be resolved within the country and not abroad.
With all these antecedents, hopes for the final success of the negotiations
were very limited, but there was evidence that the armed groups were ever
more fragmented and that their internal leadership was more diffuse; the
cynical character of both sides also became evident upon their seeming to
claim impunity for the mere fact of attending the peace conversations. In
addition, and despite being absolutely off the agenda, Brazzaville became
the first international forum where the Selekas presented their secessio-
nist demands,39 which they withdrew in extremis in order to be able to reach
a minimal pact and sign a cease-fire. Their representative, Mohamed Dha-
ffane, made clear that he was signing in the name of everyone—including
Michel Djotodia and Nouredine Adam, who were not authorized to parti-
cipate—and underlined that «those who refuse to take the road to peace
will sooner or later end up before a judge»; while in representation of the
Anti Balaka, the accord was ratified by Patrice Ngaissona, who was—very
questionably—the self-proclaimed political coordinator of these militias:
«These accords», he declared after the signing, «are the first step towards
reconciliation. We will work to achieve peace.»40 On the ground, as seen
above, the accord did not change the prevailing dynamic of the clashes,
which once again demonstrated that peace will not be definitive until all
rebels abandon, or are relieved of, their weapons.
On the other hand, in the political field, the Brazzaville Accords had an im-
mediate consequence. Days after the finalization of the negotiations, on
August 10th, President Samba-Panza announced the formation of a new
transition government,41 placing at its head the Moslem Mahamat Kamoun
as Prime Minister (during 2013, he was a direct advisor to Djotodia), and
into which she incorporated three leaders of the Selekas and two of the
Anti-Balaka, all with the stated objective of reconciling the warring factions
in order to move forward along the «road map» of the political transition.
Thus, and as a prime objective, this cabinet would be tasked with initiating
inclusive conversations at a national level, and, as well, to implement an in-
dispensable process of rendering accounts. And if both goals are immense,
Djotodia as its leader. Reuters/EP, 14/07/14. Available at:http:/www.europapress.es/

internacional/noticia-seleka-vuelve-nombrar-djotodia-lider-20140714075408.htm.
Consultation date : 21/08/14.
39
In Brazzaville, ex-Saleka demand partition of Central Africa. Jeuen Afri-
que, 22/07/14. Available at: http://www.jeuneafrique.com/Article/ARTJAWE-
B20140722085936/?utm source=feedburner utmmedium=feed&utmcampaign=-
Feed%3A+jeuneafrique Politique+%28Jeune+Afrique+Politique%29.
40
A tentative ceasefire in CAR. IRIN/UN OCHA, 29/07/14. Available at: http://www.
irinnews.org/report/100416/a-tentative-ceasefire-in-car. Consulation date: 30/07/14.
41
Samba Panza names former Seleka advisor as Central African PM. Reuters,
10/08/14. Available at: http://news.yahoo.com/samba-panza-names-former-sele-
ka-advisor-central-african-151010365.html. Consultation date: 21/08/14.
199
the holding of democratic elections, set for February of 2015, is as yet an

impossibility, at least if the intention is that these be truly representative, a
condition sine qua non if the objective is that the population trust the results
at the polls. However, this transition government has not, for the moment,
raised high hopes; the population does not understand the decision to in-
clude leaders of armed groups, and the Selekas have rejected the choice of
Prime Minister and have expelled the three Ministers of the rebel coalition,
because the coalition had «neither supported nor presented their names»,
as Nouredine Adam, vicepresident of the Selekas, stated.42
Although the greatest effort to return peace and stability falls on the mili-
tary missions currently deployed in the Central African Republic and thus
on the international organizations—the United Nations, the African Union,
the European Union—as well as on the countries providing the troops,
bilateral and regional relations have played a determinant role in the past
and present history of the Central African nation.
France: the influence of the former colonial power
Officially, France granted independence to the Central African Republic in

1960, but its influence on the political development of the former colony
has been constant. Since then, the support of France for the successive
governments has been strongly questioned, within and without the coun-
try, although it has also oscillated according to internal events. In March
of 2013, when Djotodia launched his offensive against the Bozize gover-
nment, the attitude of France raised eyebrows: Bozize and his followers
attacked the French troops (Operation Boali) for their total passivity in the
face of the rebel insurrection, upon which France responded by arguing
that she did not wish to interfere with the internal problems of the country.
However, since March of 2013, when violence broke out in Bangui, it is
undeniable that France has become the great champion of internatio-
nal intervention: at United Nations headquarters, she backed the deci-
sion of the Security Council to deploy the African mission MISCA—with
the French support of Operation Sangris—as well as its replacement by
the U.N. mission MINUSCA. In addition, its leadership has been a deter-
minant in the European Union’s approval of the EUFOR RCA mission, to
which it contributes the largest contingent of troops. In the political arena,
she also, through her solid alliance with Chad, impelled the resignation
Seleka expels its members from CAR government. Aljazeera, 01/09/14.http://

42
www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/09/seleka-expels-members-from-car-govern-
ment-2014911418854785.html.
200
of Djotodia in January of 2014. Currently she is aiding Interim President

Samba-Panza to advance in the pacification of the country, and suppor-
ting the restoration of constitutional order.
Regional environment and the leading role of Chad
The geographic location of the Central African Republic, surrounded by

six nations and immersed in a turbulent regional atmosphere, has been
of transcendental influence on its historic development, as well as on the
current conflict. Thus, the Central African Republic has become the refuge
for thousands of Central Africans fleeing from sectarian violence, but there
is a greater exodus into Cameroon and Chad, into which have fled many of
those Moslems escaping from Bangui and the prefectures of the West.
Respecting regional problems, these are most important with reference
to Chad and the Sudan, with which the Central African country shares its
northern border. In spite of having closed border passes and deployed
joint forces on occasion, this has always been a high-risk region: a terri-
tory free to illegal traffickers, lacking the presence of security forces. This
is the cause of the origin there of many of the armed groups which have
check-mated the respective governments, provoking, on many occasions,
a rise in tension with respect to bilateral relations.
With regard to relations with Chad, her constant interference with the
political development of the Central African Republic has mean that a
great part of the centroafricans distrust the neighboring country. From
the commencement of the organization of the deployment of MICOPAX in
2013, Chad committed itself to the contribution of a major military con-
tingent. However, it has always been suspected that she was defending
her own interests, and has only protected the Moslem community. Finally,
in April of 2014, she withdrew her troops from MISCA, after these ope-
ned fire on a crowd of civilians in Bangui, killing more than 30 civilians.
«There are many media which believe that the presence of our troops is
a problem, when our only objective is to restore peace and security. If our
withdrawal can help, we will withdraw,»43 the Minister of Foreign Affairs
Moussa Faki Mahamat then declared.
The United States: the fight against the LRA terrorist group
U.S. relations with the Central African Republic are of minor import, and
have only increased after the arrival of the Ugandan terrorist group LRA,
Pinto, P. Moussa Faki Mahamat, Chadian minister of Foreign Affairs. RFI, 04/04/14.
43
Available at: http://www.rfi.fr/emission/20140404-moussa-fki-mahamat-ministre-tcha-

dien-affaires-etrangeres/.
201
or Lord’s Resistance Army, in the easternmost area of the Central Afri-

can country (Haut-Mbomou). In 2009, given the limitations of the regular
Central African regular forces, Bozize authorized the deployment of the
Ugandan People’s Defense Forces, which were joined, in 2011, by 100
American Special Operations military personnel, whose sole objective
was to dismantle the terrorist group and arrest its slippery leader, Jo-
seph Kony. With regard to the current conflict, the U.S. has lent significant
support to the African Union mission Operation MISCA, both in the ope-
rative field as well as in the strategic projection of the different African
contingents deploying in the Central African Republic.
Today, an end to the violence continues to be the most urgent and com-
plicated objective in the Central African Republic. For decades, a scenario
of enormous discord has been gestating, which has now exploded with
unusual virulence and with no end in sight. The deployment of interna-
tional forces has ostensibly improved the situation; however, more coo-
peration and determination is necessary for security to reign throughout
the country. In order to achieve this, the 12,000 United Nations troops—
whose arrival on the ground in the near future seems unlikely—will not
be sufficient. It is thus a case of a challenge which the Central African
Republic will have to face alone and on a long-term basis: it is still un-
thinkable to begin the reform of her security and defense forces, which
should in themselves be the guarantors of peace and stability in a still-re-
mote future.
In addition, all achievements will be fleeting unless disarming, demobili-
zing and reintegration is carried out with reference to rebel groups who,
for the moment, do not seem disposed to renounce the use of force, nor
to respect even the minimal peace accords signed so far.
Nonetheless, the definitive solution to the conflict could never be ex-
clusively military. Therefore, the present transition government should
undertake, as soon as possible, a political project of national recons-
truction and at the same time, start down the path toward the difficult
reconciliation of a people destroyed by hatred and vengeance. On the
«road map» stand two obstacles of great transcendence. The first is
democratic elections: although their scheduled date is important, much
more so is majority participation and broadly representative results.
The international community should keep this very much in mind, for it
is always preferable to subordinate the electoral process to advances in
the political and security fields, and not to a simple time limit. All in all,
it is very likely, and even desirable, that these elections take place at a
later date than February of 2015.
202
The second obstacle is the growing secessionist demands of the Sele-

kas. The division of the country—now a de facto reality—with one territory
for each religious confession, would be the verification of the fact that it
is impossible for Central Africans to co-exist. It would, in addition, set
another precedent in Africa, after the division of Sudan in 2011, which
could be transferred, to highly pernicious effect, to other current conflict
scenes, such as Mali or Nigeria. In order to avoid this, separatist claims
must be calmed and the concept promoted among all communities that a
united Central African Republic is possible and more beneficial for ever-
yone. Djotodia’s announcement of an independent and lay State of «Dar
el Kauti»44 last August 17th in the Moslem bastion of Birao is not of great
transcendence, but does represent an alarm signal which should not be
dismissed.
Similarly, until the restoration of true Constitutional order, it is indispen-
sable that first steps be taken to restore the Rule of Law, which cannot
consider impunity an option in the face of the serious crimes committed
by all factions; and to extend, throughout the territory, the authority of
a State which is now far from being significant and efficient. In the eco-
nomic area, bases should be established permitting the installation of
a sustainable financial system, in which the exploitation of the natural
resources of the country from the basis of the growth and development
of the population. In addition, and as a pre-requisite, the government
must pursue and eradicate the illicit traffic in raw materials—the great
burden of this country; protect the production zones—currently outside
government control—and exercise effective control of the national bor-
ders, across which there continues to be uncontrolled transit of rebel
groups and mercenaries, arms, and natural resources plundered within
the country.
The challenges are major, and the time necessary to achieve peace and
consolidate a stable and developed country is long and unpredictable.
Since its independence, the Central African Republic has inscribed, in
blood and fire, the history of an enormous failure, forged by decades of
misgovernance, of corruption and of plunder. Undoubtedly, the interna-
tional community must cooperate in the resolution of the conflict and in
the construction of a new State; but it is the Central African government
which must assume, once and for all, that theirs is the responsibility for
the return to the population of a future in peace which has always been
denied it.
«Rebels’ announcement of separatist state in CAR is bargaining ploy but highli-

44
ghts risk of protracted civil war.» IHS Jane’s Intelligence Review, 19/98/14. Available
at: http://www.janes.com/article/42166/rebels-announcemnt-of-separatist-state-in-
car-is-bargaining-ploy-but-highlights-risk-of-protracted-civil-war. Consultation date:
23/08/14.
203
Geopolitical indicators
Principal source: Factbook CIA The World FACTBOOKhttps://www.cia.gov/library/ct.html-

publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ct.html
204
Chronology of theCentral African Republic
205
206
International missions in the Central African Republic
207
Bibliography
AGUIRRE, J.J., I am only the voice of my people. A bishop in Central Africa.
Editorial PPC, Madrid, 2014.
BAXTER, P. France in Central Africa: From Bokassa and Operation Barracuda
to the Days of EUFOR. Helion & Company Limited (England) and 30º
South Publishers Ltd (South Africa), 2011.
BOAS, M., The Central African Republic -- a history of a collapse foretold?
The Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Center, Norway, 2014, pp. 18.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY, «The World Factbook 2014.
CIA, State Department. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Country Studies:
A brief, comprehensive study of the Central African Republic, USA,
2012.
GEEL, F., «The Central African Republic: They must all leave or die», Interna-
tional Federation for Human Rights, 2014.
Human Rights Watch, Central African Republic: ICC Investigation Needed,
2014.
ILIFFE, J., Africans, The History of a Continent, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, 1995.
INIESTA, F., The Black Planet. A Historical Approximation to African Cultures.
Los Libros de la Catarata, Madrid, 1998.
International Crisis Group, The Central African Crisis: From Predation to
Stabilization, Report 219, 2014 and Crisis Watch no. 133, 2014.
KALCK, P., Historical Dictionary of the Central African Republic, Scarecrow
Press, 2004.
LEMARCHAND, P., Atlas of Africa, Acento Editorial, Madrid, 2000.
PEROUSE DE MONTCLOS, M.-A., «Can the West Save Africa?» Politique
Etrangère, 3:2006.
PISANI, E., Africa at the Crossroads, Ediciones Mensajero, Bilbao, 1995.
ROBLES, C. Europe and the Drama of Africa, Santillana Ediciones Genera-
les S.L., Madrid, 2006.
208
The Democratic Republic of the Congo: a window of Chapter
opportunity for peace eight
Summary
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), bears a long history of

linked conflicts, crises, political agitation, slaughters and abuses against
human rights on its shoulders. Since its independence in 1960, Mobutu
Sese Seko’s long autocracy and the subsequent two wars have provoked,
with the help of foreign interference, the loss of the State’s monopoly of
the legitimate use of violence. Nevertheless, the regional commitments
and the political, economic and military advances achieved thanks to the
changes in the course of action of the United Nations Mission open a win-
dow of opportunity for peace.
Key words
The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, Rwanda, FDLR, M23, MO-
NUSCO, FARDC, Intervention Brigade, conflict minerals, child combatants,
sexual violence, PSC Framework.
209
The Democratic Republic of the Congo: a window of...
Introduction
The conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRP)1 is the heir as well
as the seed of previous confrontations in the region called «the Great
Lakes». This is how the area next to the lakes located in the Great Rift
Valley, which belongs to Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, and to the
Democratic Republic of Congo is referred to. Others, such as the Division
for Eastern and Western Africa of the Swiss Agency for Development and
Cooperation,2 include Kenya in this region.
The way the conflict works in this part of the world is quite complex be-
cause it involves local players as well as regional and international ones.
The result is that these conflicts have tended to spread geographically,
moving the epicenter from one country to another, thus inheriting some
from each other.
We can, therefore, say that the conflict in the DRC is made up of seve-
ral conflicts involving different armed groups, from different origins and
with different motivations, who are interested in maintaining an unstable
situation. This situation allows them to control rich mining areas that pro-
vide resources that are valuable in some industries, funding the conflict,
thus perpetuating a vicious circle.
Nonetheless, peace is closer than it has ever been since the beginning of
the conflict in the 90s. We find ourselves before a window of opportunity
that will not always be open.3
The geopolitical significance of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is
due to several factors: its geographic location, its size, and its natural
riches. Located in the equatorial area of Africa, the Democratic Republic
of the Congo is the second largest country in the continent, with a total
surface of 2,344,858 km2, almost five times the size of Spain. The central
area, sixty percent of its territory, is the basin of the Congo River. This
river, which covers a wide area from East to West of the country before
flowing into the Atlantic Ocean, constitutes, along with the other tribu-
taries flowing throughout the entire country, the main transport route in
Central Africa.
The DRC has rich deposits, most of which are located in the East of the
country, which, ultimately, is the area with the most violence. These mine-
ral resources are the key elements for the perpetuation of the crisis and
1
Called Belgian Congo until its Independence in 1960. That year it became Republic of
Congo until 1971 when it became Zaire during the autocracy of Mobutu Sese Seko, and,
since 1997, it has again become the Democratic Republic of Congo.
2
SIDA, «A Strategic Conflict Analysis for the Great Lakes Region», Division for Eastern
and Western Africa, March 2004. Available in website: www.sida.se/publications.
3
BAFILEMBA, F., LEZHNEV, S., y PRENDERGAST, J. «Mary Robinson’s Next Steps to
Help End Congo’s Deadly War», Enough Project, May 2013.
211
instability. This is why they are known as «conflict minerals». This land
provides gold, cobalt, tungsten, tin, copper, iron, diamonds, and the most
famous in the media lately: coltan. Tantalum, a metal which is extracted
from coltan, is highly resistant to heat, and with such electrical properties
that make it irreplaceable, for now, in mobile phones, videogame conso-
les, and all kinds of electronic equipments. It is estimated that most of the
world’s reserves of coltan are in this Central African country.
The report that the Group of Experts on the Democratic Republic of the
Congo submitted to the Security Council (S/2014/42),4 states that many
armed groups in the eastern part of the DRC have obtained funding from
the production and marketing of natural resources. The report refers par-
ticularly to the extraction and marketing of gold, because although many
of the working mines are located in areas where there is no longer armed
violence, this mineral is mixed with other gold extracted from regions
where such violence persists. The Group estimates that 98% of the gold
4
Final report of the Group of Experts on the Democratic Republic of Congo S/2014/42
to the Security Council. Available on:http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B-
65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_2014_42.pdf.
212
produced in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is smuggled out of the

country, therefore financing armed groups, and is certainly not subject to
taxes.
The journey for these minerals starts in any of the hundreds of informal
mines which are controlled by local leaders, armed groups, or even by
units from the Congolese army5. It is estimated that between the latter
two, they control 50% of the mines in this area of the country.6 Through a
string of intermediaries, the minerals continue the journey to Europe, the
United States or Asia without having passed any control. 7 Although the
5
The role of the exploitation of natural resources in fuelling and prolonging crises
in the Eastern DRC. Research papers. nat-res International Alert, January 2010. P. 30.
6
From Mine to Mobile Phone: The Conflict Minerals Supply Chain. The Enough Project,
November 10, 2009. P.2.
7
Violence against women in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo: Whose responsibi-
lity? Whose complicity? International Trade Union Confederation, 2011. P. 9. The Kimberley
Process is a joint initiative of governments, industries of the sector and organizations in
213
DRC and other purchasing countries have their own legislation regarding
the control of the mining industry, small-scale artisanal exploitation is
not included. It seems it will continue thus as with diamonds,8 as long as
the controls do not impose liability on large industries. 9
In the illegal activities of mining, rebel groups as well as military groups
constantly abuse the population10 because the atmosphere of insecuri-
ty favors the business. Thus, on the one hand, a population which is the
necessary labor force is terrorized, and, on the other, depopulation and
chaos are aggravated.11 The then United States Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton, already in 2009 pointed out that illegal mining activities which
support armed groups, was one of the main causes of violence in Congo.12
the civil society, under the auspices of the United Nations, to stop the flow of diamonds of
the conflict, which, although it still has a long way to go, is resulting an efficient measure.
For further information: PALACIÁN DE INZA, BLANCA. «Los diamantes de conflicto». («The
Conflict Diamonds») Defense Spanish Magazine, 2011, nº. 272. pp. 54-57.
8

9
9 Initiatives such as the Project Solutions for Hope by Motorola and AVX, for tanta-
lum, are resulting feasible and successful. Information on: http://solutions-network.
org/site-solutionsforhope/ Consultation date: September 2014.
10
10 Global Witness. Congo’s minerals trade in the balance. Mayo 2011. P. 9.
11
11 Father Pierre Cibambo, in charge of Africa, for Caritas Internationalis, confirms
that sexual violence is used against women to humiliate and destroy some commu-
nities and to occupy their lands. With this strategy, the rebels control and exploit the
resources in the wide areas of Kivu. http://www.caritas.org/activities/emergencies/
RapeDestroyingCongo.html.
12
12 GETTLEMAN, JEFFREY. «Clinton Presses Congo on Minerals» 10/08/2009 The
New York Times Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/11/world/africa/11di-
plo.html?_r=0.
214
The importance of this conflict is based on how it has become deeply en-
trenched throughout time, on its influence on neighboring countries, and
on the tremendous cases of violence it is still causing.
The United Nations Mission for the Stabilization of the Democratic Republic
of the Congo, MONUSCO,13 is still the mission with the highest annual cost
(1,500 million dollars annually), and the one that has the largest number of
mobilized troops (over 24,000 in April of 201414). This mission has undergone
an important change of direction during the first months of 2014 upon seeing
its performance strengthened with the creation of the Intervention Brigade-,
the first offensive force of the UN, with the new appointments and with the
use of unmanned aerial vehicles. This change, which was becoming essen-
tial, is nonetheless insufficient. In asymmetrical conflicts, that are internal
but which have become globalized, as in this case, where the civilian popula-
tion is the main victim, and where violence is carried out by many players ob-
taining and consolidating peace is a long and complicated process. To achie-
ve peace, in a positive sense, in other words, as a struggle against structural
violence and not only as a mere state of the absence of war,15 much more
than a military victory is needed. Yet this victory is essential.
Other factors that greatly hinder the end of this conflict are the destabili-
zation that it provokes itself, but also receives from its neighboring coun-
tries. Foreign and domestic supporters house armed groups whose ulti-
mate goal is the overthrow of the governments of the countries of origin.
Violence, perpetrated mostly by ordinary and non-ordinary troops,16 is
considered a problem endemic to the country.The civilian population, ac-
cused of collaboration by both the rebel groups and by the army, suffers
constant violation of their human rights from all sides: sexual violence
(particularly against women and girls but also against men and boys17),
13
Its acronym comes from the French MONUSCO: Mission de l’Organisation des Na-
tions Unies pour la stabilisation in RD Congo.
14
Information taken from MONUSCO’s website: http://monusco.unmissions.org/.
15
Ramsbothan, O., Woodhouse, T., & Miall, H. (2012). Contemporary Conflict resolution.
Cambridge: Polity press.
16
Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, «Characterizing Sexual Violence in the Democra-
tic Republic of Congo», August 2009. In this study by María Eriksson Baaz and Maria
Stern, focused on the perpetrators of sexual violence, the 193 interviews about rape on
the part of the army, point to the difference between two types of rape with different
ethical acceptance by the perpetrators: random rape to liberate sexual tension, and
«wicked» rape related with drug consumption, frustration, and rage, and which has no
other purpose than to commit horrible actions. It must be taken into account that the
Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo were responsible for 40% of sexual
violence perpetrated in the first half of 2007. BAAZ, M. E., y STERN, M., «Why do soldiers
rape? Masculinity, Violence and Sexuality in the Armed Forces in the Congo (DRC)».
International Studies Quarterly 53, 2009. P. 497
17
PERDIGAO, Yovanka. «Invisible Victims: Sexual Violence against Men in the Great
Lakes», Think Africa Press, 28/06/2012.
215
massive murders, systematic torture, compulsory recruitment or forced

labor, among others. In many cases, all of this violence overlaps onto the
same victim. Therefore, it is not unusual that members of armed groups
force a person to work in the mines during the day, and sexually exploit
him or her at night.18
Sexual violence is a general issue in the DRC and its systematic use bran-
ded this region of the country as the «world capital of rape» 19 by the
then-special representative of the Secretary General for the fight against
sexual violence in conflicts, Margot Wallstrom, in 2010. In the decade pre-
vious to that date, nearly 200,000 rapes had been reported in the region.20
In spite of the attention from the media, and of the work undertaken by
international organizations, the phenomenon doesn’t diminish. The sta-
tistics gathered by ACNUR in the province of Northern Kivu show an alar-
ming increase of these actions against women and girls during the first
semester of 2013.21
Bearing in mind that few of these abuses are reported, due to lack of
security, fear of the victim to be stigmatized, and to the inaccessibility to
many places, the real figure estimated is much higher.
Sexual violence has also been perpetrated by some members of the Uni-
ted Nations. Although news about this kind of abuses by these troops date
back to the 90s, the alarm was not raised until 2005, when a report about
this issue was published22. Thanks to it, some measures have been taken.
Training and the inclusion of women in the contingents have been some
of the most important and effective measures.
In the clashes in this region, as is common in Africa, we can find causes

inherited from the colonial period, which have been perpetuated since
then mainly due to economic interests, of other countries, to its indus-
try and to its organizations. Thus, the artificial colonial borders are still
18
Free the Slaves, «The Congo Report: Slavery in Conflict Minerals». 2011. P. 11.
19
UN News Centre. «Tackling sexual violence must include prevention, ending im-
punity–UN official». 27 April 2010. Available at: http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.
asp?NewsID=34502#.UntxQnmTUVg.
20
Violence against women in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo: Whose respon-
sibility? Whose complicity? ITUC, 2011.
21
UNHCR, «Sexual violence on the rise in DRC’s North Kivu». Briefing Notes, 30 July
2013. http://www.unhcr.org/51f79a649.html.
22
United Nations. Report of the Secretary-General’s Special Advisor, Prince Zeid Ra’ad
Zeid al-Hussein on «A comprehensive strategy to eliminate future sexual exploitation
and abuse in United Nations peacekeeping operations» [A/59/710] 24/03/2005 Availa-
ble at: http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/59/710 Date consul-
ted: April 2014.
216
provoking rivalries among the different tribes and ethnic groups for the
control of a State or a region.
Yet, not only that. Other common causes worth mentioning are:
• the regional nature that the clashes take on which, as Enrique Vega
points out, forces the solutions to also take on this nature23,
• the identitarism of the political options, which in the case of the
DRC resulted in the «Zairinization» of the country. In other words,
in the development of an exclusion policy that is still nurturing the
different guerrilla groups,
• the succession of long term autocratic governments,
• the very high level of foreign interference,
• the abundance of armed groups added to the disappearance of the
State apparatus, and
• the greed of locals and foreigners for the vast natural resources.
The last decades in the history of the DRC offer a summary of the
preparation and the perpetuation of some of the causes that we have
pointed out.
Independence and secession of Katanga
From the very same moment in which the country falls under the presi-
dency of Joseph Kasavubu in 1960, once King Baudouin I had recognized
the independence of the Belgian Congo, the ethnic tensions and military
revolts were the order of the day. Just one month later, Moise Tshombé,
Governor of the province of Katanga, the richest in the country and, thus,
with more Western interests, proclaimed the independence of his provin-
ce and requested military aid from Belgium.
During this first year, the country turned into the battleground of the two
sides of the cold war, supporting one or another government. Due to the
gravity of the clashes, to international interference, and in view of the
petition from the Congolese Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba, the United
Nations Security Council approved the mission for peace maintenance
ONUC which was deployed until 1964.24
23
VEGA FERNÁNDEZ, E., »Los conflictos armados africanos: la confrontación inte-
rior», en «África: ¿un nuevo escenario de confrontación?», «The African armed con-
flicts: inside confrontation», in «Africa: a new confrontation scenario?», Monographs
of the National Defense Studies Center (CESEDEN), n 123. Madrid, Ministry of Defense.
Technical General Secretariat. 2011. Pp 28.
Available on: http://dialnet.unirioja.es/descarga/libro/548251.pdf.Consultation date:
June 2014.
24
For thorough reading regarding the first years of Independence and subsequent
conflicts, contextualized in the region, we recommend: VACAS FERNÁNDEZ, F. and PAR-
217
Mobutu’s regime
In 1965, four years after the assassination of Prime Minister Lumumba,

elections to parliament were held. Although the coalition led by Tsombé
won, the still President of the Republic Kasavubu did not allow him to
take office as Prime Minister. At the end of that year, Mobutu Sese Seko
proclaimed himself President, thus replacing Kasavubu. Mobutu imposed
a bloody military autocracy in the country, renamed Zaire in 1971, which
lasted three decades.
After the dissolution of the USSR, Zaire lost its usefulness as guarantor
of the containment of communism in the area, so that, while the internal
opposition gained strength, the unconditional support from the West di-
sappeared. The economy of the country had reached disaster while Mo-
butu’s accounts had considerably swollen.
The First Congo War (1996-1997) or «war of liberation»
The war in Rwanda (1990-1994) caused a significant exodus of civilian

Hutu refugees. They, along with the defeated militias (called interahamwe,
«those who fight together», who were responsible for the genocide), and
the army settled in the region of Kivu, where the conflict continued.
The «Hutu power» took advantage of the refugee camps to organize and
train itself with the aim of attacking the governments of Rwanda and
Burundi. This opposition caused such concern in these countries that
became evident through the events that ensued. Mobutu had supported
the Tutsi genocide in Rwanda, therefore the Congolese Tutsis themselves
desired his fall. When the Tutsis came into power in Rwanda, the opposi-
tion within the DRC became strong thanks to the support from Rwanda,
Uganda and Burundi. Uganda’s motivation stemmed from the fact that
Mobutu protected the Ugandan guerrillas, and even the Sudanese guerri-
llas who were against the Government of Uganda. This tendency to give
refuge to guerrillas that are against the government of a neighboring
country is still an element that is present in the region of the Great Lakes.
The outbreak of the conflict was due to Mobutu’s decision to expel people
of Tutsi origin who lived in Kivu, arguing that they were not from Zaire,
despite having lived there for generations. These Tutsis, with the afore-
mentioned international aid, started a rebellion and joined the so-called
Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo (AFDL), headed
DO DE SANTAYANA, J. «The Conflict in the Great Lakes». Ministry of Defense, Technical

General Secretariat, 2005.
218
by Laurent-Désiré Kabila, who gathered together all of the opponents to

Mobutu’s regime.
In a fast military campaign, Kabila’s forces took over the power in the
country, renamed Democratic Republic of the Congo under the presidency
of Kabila.
The Second War of Congo (1998-2003) or African World War
Once Kabila named himself president, suspicion and struggle for power,
including an attempt of a coup, provoked a change of alliances.25 The new
president turned against his former supporters, from Uganda and from
Rwanda, whom he expelled from the country. He then searched for part-
ners of a nationalist nature among the moderate Hutu forces and among
his followers from Katanga, his homeland. Due to these changes, the
countries in the area became aware of the threat to their influence and
military control over the DRC, but also to their internal security and sta-
bility. The outcome was that they initiated a mechanism similar to the
one that had carried Kabila to power, but this time they made sure they
created a more manageable alternative than he had. This alternative was
the Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD26), whose nucleus was formed
by former members of the AFDL.
This new phase of the conflict, clearly globalized, has been called «Afri-
can World War». With an estimate of 5.4 million victims killed27 from 1998
to 2007, it is the conflict that cost more lives in the world since the end
of World War II. A direct heir of the genocide perpetrated in Rwanda in
1994, and which caused the death of over half a million Tutsis, it was su-
pported by the troops of this ethnic group from Rwanda and Uganda. Both
countries intended to establish a security zone in its Western border, and
thus control the Hutu militias established there and, in addition, they were
logically interested in the mineral riches in the area.
Given the danger of the imminent collapse of Kabila, the forces from tho-
se countries which feared the strength of Uganda and Rwanda sided with
him. Angola needed Kabila, now an ally of the Hutu guerrillas and of the
Mai Mai guerrillas, to combat the UNITA guerrillas based in the south of
the DRC. President Robert Mugabe from Zimbabwe supported Kabila for
reasons of personal ambition because he expected that his support would
25
FARRÉS FERNÁNDEZ, G. «La segunda guerra del Congo, rol de los principales ac-
tores regionales.» («The Second Congo War, the role of the main regional actors») No-
vaafrica, 2010. P. 80.
26
RCD is the acronym from the French: Rassemblement congolais pour la démocratie.
Since 2003, it is a political party. It participated in the transition government.
27
COGLHAN, B., NGOY, P. et al. «Mortality in the Democratic Republic of Congo: an on-
going crisis», International Rescue Committee, 2008.
219
be paid with part of the enormous wealth of Kinshasa.28 Sudan, Libya,

Chad and Namibia (in support of Angola) also sided with Kabila, although
to a lesser extent. In this way, the conflict became totally regionalized.
On the other side were the former allies: Uganda and Rwanda, besides
Burundi (which had troops deployed in the DRC to combat the Hutu rebels
who fought against its army), the Tutsi militias, and two Congolese rebel
groups (RCD y MLC29), and, to a lesser extent, the Central African Republic
and South Africa.
Although they did not fight for either side, there was a parallel conflict in
the two regions of Kivu which, from 1999 to 2007, confronted the lendu,
who are shepherds, and the hema, who are farmers. The clashes soon
spread and involved other ethnic groups such as the ngiti, generally con-
sidered loyal to the lendu, and the gegere, who supported the hema. The
combat among these groups resulted in at least 60,000 people dead.
The cease-fire was reached with the Lusaka Agreement of July 10th,
1999, which was signed by the States involved in the conflict and by the
two rebel groups. This agreement was the basis for the deployment of the
UN peacekeeping operation: MONUC30. Nevertheless, the war continued
without much variation because Kabila’s government controlled the sou-
thwestern half of the country, and the rebels the northeast half. Neither
respected the cease-fire.
Kabila’s assassination in January of 2001 was the event that changed
the bitter situation drastically. His son, Joseph Kabila, succeeded him and
from that moment on, some advances took place to implement the Lu-
saka Agreement, and to abide by the cease-fire during 2001. The peace
process ended between 2002 and 2003 with the creation of a transition
government led by Joseph Kabila who, in 2006, won the first democratic
elections held in the country in 40 years.
THE CNDP (National Congress for the Defense of the People) AND
THE M-23
A great section of the country continued to be and still is insecure, parti-

cularly the East. There, the ethnic factor takes on an essential role in the
provinces of northern Kivu and southern Kivu, with the confrontation of
communities considered indigenous of Rwandan or Burundi origin, con-
sidered non-native». For the latter, in many cases, the way to gain access
28
For a thorough and clear explanation about the regional participation in this conflict,
we recommend reading: FARRÉS FERNÁNDEZ, G. Op. Cit.
29
MLC is the acronym from French: Mouvement de libération du Congo. It has been a
political party since 2003. It participated in the transition government.
30
United Nations Mission of Observers for the Congo.
220
to the economic system has been to belong to or to support one of the

armed groups.
An example of this is the confrontation that the guerilla CNDP (Natio-
nal Congress for the Defense of the People), led by its founder Laurent
Nkunda, with the support of Rwanda, that was started in May 2004 by the
CNDP. During these years, Nkunda set himself up as a defender of the Tut-
si community in the Kivu provinces to protect them from a new genocide
that could take place on the part of the Rwandan Hutu rebels from the
FDLR (Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda). Nkunda himself
is an example of the series of conflicts in the region, as he fought against
the Hutus in Rwanda in the 90s, and participated in the revolution that
overthrew Mobutu in the then called Zaire. Afterwards, he left the army
with his men accusing the government of Joseph Kabila of corruption.
Most of the attacks from this armed group between 2004 and 2008 re-
sulted in the defeat of the Armed Forces of the DRC (FARDC31), among
other things due to the arms embargo that the country was under since
a decade before, but also because the troops were poorly trained and
poorly paid, and in many cases they dedicated themselves to looting and
smuggling in the region, as we shall see later.
On the 23rd of March, 2009, Nkunda was arrested and the CNDP signed
a peace accord by which it would become part of the Congolese Armed
Forces. Nevertheless, the conflict didn’t end here. In April of 2012, be-
31
FARDC: Forces Armées de la République Démocratique du Congo (Armed Forces of
the Democratic Republic of the Congo).
221
tween 300 and 600 Tutsi combatants, most of them former members
of the CNDP, commanded by General Bosco Ntaganda, rebelled against
the DRC’s government for not having implemented its commitments in
accordance with the peace treaty. They established themselves as the
so-called 23rd of March Movement (M23), taking their name after the date
of the treaty.
On the 20th of November of that year they seized Goma, the capital of the
province of northern Kivu and, although at the beginning of December
they retreated from Goma, the hostilities did not cease. This was the main
reason for the UN to authorize the deployment of an offensive Interven-
tion Brigade which managed to get the armed group to surrender in a few
months32.
On February 24th, 2013 the Peace Framework33 was signed in Addis Aba-
ba among the leaders of Angola, Burundi, the Central African Republic,
the Republic of Congo, the DRC, South Sudan, South Africa, Tanzania,
Rwanda, Uganda, and Mozambique. The framework follows model 11+4
because, besides these eleven signatories, the UN, the African Union, the
International Conference on the Region of the Great Lakes (CIRLG) and
the South African Development Community (SADC) acted as guarantors.
This agreement holds the DRC’s authorities responsible for the reform of
its security forces and of its institutions. The aim of committing so many
countries and organizations is essential: to put an end to the interference
from other countries in internal conflicts in the region. The military defeat
of the different armed groups is not feasible nor does it make sense if
the neighboring countries help them to survive and to rearm themselves.
This is why signing the Addis Ababa agreements is considered an im-
portant achievement towards peace: essential, along with international
32
«Los rebeldes del M23 anuncian el fin de su lucha armada en el Congo» («The
M23rebels announce the end of their armed struggle in the Congo»). «El País».
02/11/2013. Available at: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2013/11/05/
actualidad/1383642968_110904.html. Consultation date: November 2013. For further
reading about the M23, we recommend: IRIN. «RDC: Comprendre le groupe armé M23».
26/06/2012. Available at: http://www.irinnews.org/fr/report/95733/rdc-compren-
dre-le-groupe-arm%C3%A9-m23. Consultation date: December 2013.
PALACIAN DE INZA, B. «¿El fin del M23? Hacía falta enseñar músculo» («The end of
the M23? It was necessary to flex muscles»). Analysis Document – Spanish Institute
of Strategic Studies- IEEE 52/2013. Available at: http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/
docs_analisis/2013/DIEEEA52-2013_FinDelM23_BPI.pdf. Consultation date: February
2014.
33
Available in French at: https://www.un.org/wcm/webdav/site/undpa/shared/un-
dpa/pdf/PSC%20Framework%20-%20Signed.pdf
Consultation date: February 2014.
222
pressure to defeat the M23, and they will also be to face the fight against
the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) and the rest
of the armed groups that are still active.
Despite the different peace treaties and the presence of United Nations
troops to enforce them, the country hasn’t come out of the chaos it is im-
mersed in, which incites a continuous struggle among militias that aspire
to control the extraction of the resources in the Eastern area. Thus, after
Somalia, the DRC is still in second position in the list of failed States.34
In the Global Peace Index 201435 report, which identifies the peace index
in 162 countries, the tendency towards violence, and its economic impact,
this country holds position 155. This report highlights the main factors
related to society and its security, and to the domestic conflicts for which
different armed groups were responsible, to label the DRC as a barely
peaceful country.
Main armed groups
The armed groups that operate in the DRC are counted in the tens36. Most
of them act in the Eastern region of the country, and are of diverse enti-
ties, ideologies and origins. According to President Kabila,37 the ones that
pose the major threat to the security of the country are the Democratic
Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), the Alliance of Democratic
Forces (ADF), the Resistance Army of the Lord (LRA), and the National Li-
beration Forces (FNL). Furthermore, the report that the Group of Experts
on the Democratic Republic of Congo submitted to the Security Council in
January of 201438 adds the group called Kata Katanga to this list.
34
On the list in 2012 it was also in second position after Somalia, making its situation
worse with regard to 2011, year in which its indicators showed a more positive result
coming out of the «alert» area, and being in 4th place after Somalia, Chad, and Sudan.
See lists of failed states elaborated by the magazine Foreign Policy and by Fund for
Peace. Available at: http://ffp.statesindex.org Consultation date: May 2014.
35
Institute for Economics and Peace. «Global Peace Index 2014. Measuring peace and
assessing country risks», 2014. Available at: http://www.visionofhumanity.org/sites/
default/files/2014%20Global%20Peace%20Index%20REPORT.pdf Consultation date:
June 2014.
36
For more information on other groups, see:
Democratic Republic of Congo’s key armed groups. Agence France-Presse.
17/07/2013 Available at: http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/130717/
democratic-republic-congos-key-armed-groups
DRC: Tough bargaining with armed groups. Irinnews. 18/10/2012. Disponible en:
http://www.irinnews.org/report/96585/drc-tough-bargaining-with-armed-groups .
37
United States Department of State. Country Reports on Terrorism 2013. 2014. P. 19
Available at: http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/225886.pdf .
38
United Nations. Final report by the Group of experts on the Democratic Republic of
theCongo S/2014/42. Op. Cit. P. 3.
223
Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR39)

It is estimated that the FDLR contingent fluctuates between 2,400 and
4,00040 which makes it the largest illegal foreign armed group. Although,
according to information supplied by MONUSCO41, it has a growing num-
ber of Congolese members, it is largely formed by members of the gover-
nment and of the Rwandan army expelled in 1994, as well as by refugees
of the same nationality. It currently operates in the East of the DRC and in
the province of Katanga, and is the most active group in the country.
Last November 14th, 2013, the United Nations Security Council stressed
the importance of neutralizing all of the armed groups.42 For now, the top
priority is to neutralize the FDLR. The Representative of the Secretary Ge-
neral announced such after 20 years had passed since the Tutsi genocide
in Rwanda at the hands of the Hutus which ended the lives of 800,000
Rwandans in 100 days, 20% of this country’s population.
When the Rwandan Patriotic Front, composed by Tutsis, took power in
Rwanda, many civilian refugees who had nothing to do with the actions,
but also members of the Armed Forces and the militias,43 as well as rulers
who were responsible for the genocide, were forced to flee: 1,300,000 fled
to Zaire (DRC). Those guilty of genocide proclaimed themselves govern-
ment in exile and began their preparation and training to recover power
in their country44. This is the origin of the FDLR, currently considered one
of the main obstacles to achieve peace in the DRC.
Although the most extreme nucleus of the group is made up of people
who took part in the genocide in 1994, currently most of group members
are youngsters recruited in the refugee camps that still exist. Their age is
considered a positive element when it comes to their possible reintegra-
tion into society, as almost all of them are under 30 years old and, thus,
were not implicated in the terrible events of 1994.45
Even though the official aim of the FDLR is to overthrow the government
of Rwanda, it also attacks the Congolese population and has cooperation
39
Acronym in French: Forces Démocratiques de la Libération du Rwanda.
40
According to Armed Conflict Database. Consulted in February 2014.
41
Information from MONUSCO. Available at: http://monusco.unmissions.org/ Consul-
tation date: March 2014.
42
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=46494&Cr=democratic&Cr1=-
congo#.UoXOIHmTUVg.
43
Interahamwe means «those who fight together» in hutu.
44
ORTEGA RODRIGUEZ, Maria Paz. «The FDLR as an Obstacle to Peace in the DRC».
Peace Review. Volume 23, 2011. P. 176.
45
«Rwandan Hutu fighters in Congo surrendering in large numbers – UN». Reuters.
11/12/2013. Available at: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/12/11/uk-congo-demo-
cratic-rebels-idUKBRE9BA18V20131211 Consultation date: January 2014.
224
ties with the Mai-Mai militias46 and with the Burundi National Liberation
Forces. These actions are related, according to Maria Paz Ortega, to the
two different lines of discourse they espouse. The first is the official na-
rrative which even includes its name, and intends to cut its links with the
ethnic component, and focus on promoting democracy and dialogue with
the Rwandans. The second is its internal discourse which, according to
this author, is based on a much more radical thought process that is more
radical and has an anti-Tutsi motivation. This discourse fits in more with
their brutal actions against the Congolese population than with that of a
democratic nature, because it was this group that emphasized the use
of rape as a weapon of war, as well as other actions such as the burning
of schools, churches, health centers or entire towns; the recruitment of
children; extortion or assassinations, and a long list of terrible actions.
The FDLR is among the groups that have committed more violations to
human rights in the provinces of northern Kivu and southern Kivu, in the
East of the country.47
Alliance of Democratic Forces (ADF)
This is a Ugandan group with an Islamic slant, particularly brutal and

based in the Rwenzori Mountains, bordering with Uganda. Its objective is
to establish the sharia48 in Uganda. It was created around 1998 merging
several trends of thought which were discontent with the Ugandan socie-
ty after Idi Amin was overthrown.49 Currently it has around 500 soldiers,
although the excessive secrecy around this group leads to doubt its real
capacity.
National Liberation Forces (FNL) 50
The FNL is a rebel group native to Burundi, but based in the DRC.
Its origin dates back to 1985, as the armed wing of the Party for the
Liberation of the Hutu People (PALIPEHUTU)51 during the civil war in
Burundi. This party had been created by Hutu refugees in Tanzania
46
A confederation of armed groups that operate in the DRC having a total of 8,500
troops are known as Mai Mai militia. Armed Conflict Database.
47
ORTEGA RODRIGUEZ, Maria Paz. Op. Cit. P. 176.
48
The sharia, also called Islamic Law, according to the Koran, is the right way to this
religion.
49
Idi Amin Dada was the third president of Uganda after a coup and after establishing
a military autocracy that lasted from 1971 to 1979. He combined the postulates of the
Koran, leftist ideas, anti-occidentalism, and a fierce repression of his adversaries. He
was known as «the Kampala butcher» for his cruel and horrific actions, which led him
to be accused of genocide by the Court of Justice at the Hague.
50
FNL is the French acronym for: Forces nationales de libération.
51
Known as PALIPEHUTU, its French acronym for: Parti pour la libération du peuple
hutu.
225
some years earlier. They fought in the Second Congo War with the
Congolese Armed Forces, against the Burundi Army. Both factions,
party and armed wing, which had already split in 1990, signed a pea-
ce treaty with the government of Burundi in September, 2006. Most
of the FNL joined the national armed forces, but a minority continued
the armed struggle establishing its bases in southern Kivu against
the Burundi government. Currently, the FNL still has links with the
FDLR group.52
The Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA)
The LRA was created in 1987 by some members of the Holy Spirit Mo-
vement, founded by Alice Lakwena, and of the Ugandan army toppled
by President Yuweri Museveni. During almost 25 years, the Lord’s Re-
sistance Army, headed by its leader, Joseph Kony, has wreaked havoc in
the civilian communities of central Africa, taking the lives of over 12,000
people. What started as a rebellion located in the north of Uganda has
become a regional insurgency that now terrorizes the civilian population
in the northeast of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, in South Sudan
and in the east of the Central African Republic.
Between 1994 and 2004, the LRA was located in South Sudan, but after
the peace negotiations, the group moved its base to the DRC. They began
to settle there at the end of 2005, specifically in the national park of Ga-
ramba, in the northwest of the country, which they converted into their
headquarters for almost three years. They are still present residually in
this park where, according to a report published in June of 2013 by Kas-
per Agger and Jonathan Hutson,53 they use the poaching of elephants and
the high price of ivory to finance themselves. In this report, it is explained
how the LRA transports ivory from the DRC to the Central African Repu-
blic, where they sell it to Arab businessmen and officers of the Sudanese
Armed Forces in exchange for money, food, arms, ammunition, and me-
dical supplies.
Although according to the Report from the Group of Experts on the DRC,54
the violent attacks from this group decreased in 2013, and it is estimated
that in this country it only has 40 or 50 members, it still fills the popula-
tion with fear, and is pushing thousands to displace. According to the Go-
vernment of Uganda «from the military point of view, the LRA was reduced
to a gang of prowlers». Thus, and as stated in the mentioned report, the
52
Information from MONUSCO. Available at: http://monusco.unmissions.org/.
53
Agger, K. y Hutson, J., «Kony’s Ivory: How Elephant Poaching in Congo Helps Support
the Lord’s Resistance Army», Enough Project, Satellite Sentinel Project, Invisible Chil-
dren y The Resolve. June 2013.
54
Report S/2012/843, Op. Cit. P. 31.
226
main crimes committed by the group are pillage and kidnapping people
to use them as carriers of the looted goods.
Kata Katanga
According to the Report of the Group of Experts,55 Kata Katanga is a de-

centralized network of armed groups and political movements that offi-
cially advocates the secession of the province of Katanga, where it opera-
tes shortly since the 2011 elections.
This fight for the independence of the province of Katanga, which star-
ted decades ago, relies on the support of some intellectuals and poli-
tical leaders. The main group operates under the military direction of
Kyungu Mutanga (alias Gédéon) although there are several local groups
that operate under Kata Katanga’s flag, and they seem to do it so. These
groups are responsible for the serious abuses against civilians in the
rural areas.
Child soldiers
A recent report about child soldiers in the world, that gathers data
from the United Nations until 2012, indicates that not only do armed
groups recruit minors, but also documented 20 cases of recruitment
and the use of children by the DRC Armed Forces.56 The «12th Annual
Report of the Secretary General of the United Nations to the Security
Council about the situation of children and armed conflicts»,57 publi-
shed in May, 2013, confirms the finding and includes, in the list of child
recruiters,58 nine groups involved in the conflict in the DRC, among
them the FDLR, the M23, the Lord’s Resistance Army, and the Armed
Forces themselves.
55
Report S/2012/843, Op. Cit. P. 16.
56
VV.AA. «Niños y niñas soldados en el mundo». Alboan, Amnistía Internacional, En-
treculturas, Fundación El Compromiso y Save the Children. 2014. Disponible en: «Boy
and girl soldiers in the world». Alboan. Amnesty International. Entreculturas. Founda-
tion «El Compromiso» («The Commitment») and Save the Children».
h t t p : / / w w w. e n t r e c u l t u ra s . o r g / p u b l i c a c i o n e s / e s t u d i o s _ i n f o r m e s /
ninos-ninas-soldado-informe-2014
57
This list is part of the campaign «name and shame» to be carried out as per Reso-
lution 1379 (2001)
Available at: http://watchlist.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/CAAC-Annual-Re-
port-2013.pdf Consultation date: September 2013.
58
The United Nations draws up a list of parties in conflict who use and recruit chil-
dren. The subsequent resolutions 1882 (2009) and 1998 (2011) include in the list those
groups which participate in cases of mutilation, death, and sexual violence; and of those
which carry out attacks to schools and hospitals, respectively.
227
Resurrection of the FARDC (Armed Forces of the Democratic

Republic of the Congo) 59
The Democratic Republic of the Congo has the largest army in Cen-
tral Africa, with an estimated force of 134,250 troops.60 Until 2014,
all of the reports that referred to these Armed Forces spoke of a
poorly paid and equipped army, and with a negative assessment by
the population. Upon seeing that the improvement of the security
was essential to obtain peace in the region, many programs in the
European Union, in the United Nations, and of a bilateral nature, un-
der the leadership of countries such as the United States, France or
China, among others, went to great pains for the task. But they all
seemed to bear little benefit and suffered from a lack of planning
and coordination, in addition to colliding with the internal governan-
ce of the country.61
Furthermore, the different failed integration processes of the members
of other armed groups into the Armed Forces brought about the creation
of an unruly national army which adopted the characteristics of the rebel
groups it integrated. Nevertheless, the reinsertion policy still continues
because this is what is intended with the recently defeated M23 group,
although this time the idea is to make it more thorough and demanding
when the personnel is selected.
In its 2012 report,62 the International Crisis Group Africa wrote about the
spread of illicit activities of the FARDC using the operations against ar-
med groups as an excuse. The report on the DRC by the Congressional
Research Service of the United States in 2013 coincided with that idea.
It pointed out that the 15,000 people that make up this army are poor-
ly trained, badly paid, and lack food and supplies. These shortages may
favor abuse and looting. Furthermore, the report extends this limited ca-
pability and the high rate of corruption and illegality to other basic insti-
tutions such as the police, the judicial power and other organs related to
security.63
59
«Resurrection of the FARDC (Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo)?»
Title taken from a section in the following article, where the history of this army is
thoroughly explained, and the reform stages foreseen: BERGHEZAN, Georges. «FORCES
ARMÉES DE RDC : Le chaos institutionnalisé?». (ARMED FORCES OF THE DEMOCRATIC
REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO: An institutionalized chaos? GRIP. 01/01/2014. Available on:
http://www.grip.org/fr/node/1174 Consultation date. February 2014.
60
IISS. «The Military Balance 2014». Routledge, 2014. P. 432.
61
ARIEFF, A. y COEN, T. Op. cit. P. 12. 2012.
62
International Crisis Group Africa. «Eastern Congo: Why Stabilisation Failed». Brie-
fing N°91, 4 October 2012.
63
ARIEFF, A. y COEN, T. «Democratic Republic of Congo: Background and US Policy.».
CRS Report for Congress, R43166. Julio de 2013. P. 12 Available at: https://www.fas.
org/sgp/crs/row/R43166.pdf Consultation date: February 2014.
228
Matters have not made much progress, although there has been a subs-
tantial change: between October and November of 2013, under the sur-
veillance of General Santos de Cruz, and with better training, intelligence,
and support, the FARDC behaved more efficiently and with discipline.64 The
result was confirmed by the work of Armed Forces capable of conducting
operations of combined artillery and air support in the fight against the
M23. Furthermore, there have been no reports of abuses against human
rights in these actions.65
The role of external players
Uganda and Rwanda
The report of the United Nations Group of Experts on the Democratic Re-
public of the Congo, S/2012/843,66 documented violations of the embargo
of arms to support the M23 and its allies by the governments of Uganda
and Rwanda. Its most recent report S/2013/433,67 however, points out
that although no signs that the government of Uganda is still providing
support were found, it does not mean it is not. However, they have been
found in the case of Rwanda.
By supporting the continuity of destabilizing armed groups in its neigh-
boring country, the governments of Uganda and Rwanda would benefit
from the extraction and trafficking of such valuable resources as gold,
diamonds, coltan or copper. Thus they boost ethnic struggles between
Hutus and Tutsies in the Kivu provinces, and between the Hema and the
Lendu in the area of Ituri.
Rwanda has accused the Congolese troops and government of collabo-
rating with the FDLR, while the United Nations experts have repeatedly
reported the support from Rwanda to the M23. Both governments have
denied the accusations.
64
In his report to Secretary General Kobler, he spoke along these lines: «The military
victories obtained until now have been possible not only because of the robust military
commitment of our forces, but through an invigorated action of the Congolese army.
In fact, the FARDC have become more efficient and more operative. They have part-
ly improved their discipline, and rationalized their chain of command. They are better
equipped and paid more regularly. This has had a decisive impact on the military victory
against the M23.» KOBLER, Martin. Op. cit. P. 3.
65
IISS. «DRC sets precedents for UN forces». Volume 20. Comment 1. February 2014.
66
Report S/2012/843 available at: http://www.un.org/es/comun/docs/?sym-
bol=S/2012/843 Consultation date: September 2013.
67
Report S/2013/433 available at: http://www.un.org/es/comun/docs/?sym-
bol=S/2013/433 Consultation date: September de 2013.
229
The United Nations

The UN deployed the United Nations Observer Mission in the Democratic
Republic of the Congo (MONUC) after the signing of the Lusaka Accords in
1999. One year later, it changed its nature from mission of observation to
peacekeeping force, with more capacity to act, although it did not change
its name.
A new journey started with the elections in 2006, won by Joseph Kabila,
which were the first free elections in the country after over four decades
of conflicts. Thus, in 2010, after a report from the United Nations Secre-
tary General which affirmed that the DRC had begun a new stage with its
transition toward the consolidation of peace, MONUC became the United
Nations Mission for the Stabilization of the Democratic Republic of Con-
go (MONUSCO). The change from mission of «observation» to mission of
«stabilization» responds to a new concept of operations that intervene
more in the domestic life in the territory where they are deployed. Their
main objective is to create and maintain a security climate that will allow
the development of the rest of the activities towards the consolidation of
peace.
By June of 2014, MONUSCO had deployed over 21,000 troops in uniform,
almost 1,000 international and 3,000 local civilians, and over 500 UN
volunteers.
The Intervention Brigade: from peace-keepers to peace-makers
In November of 2012, only a few months after its creation, the M23 group
seized Goma, the capital of the province of northern Kivu. This action was
a tough blow for the damaged morale and image of the Congolese Armed
Forces and of the United Nations troops. The powerlessness of being una-
ble to repress this action and the subsequent ones, added to years of hard
criticism, was the main reason for the General Council of the UN to autho-
rize, in March of 2013, the deployment of the Intervention Brigade.68 The
authorization was approved through Resolution 2098,69 with the declared
68
For more information about this Brigade, see: BOLAÑOS, Jorge. «New Brigade
of Intervention in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A step forward by NNUU in
the Great Lakes». Information document of the Spanish Institute of Strategic Studies
16/2013. Available at: http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/docs_informativos/2013/
DIEEEI16-2013_Congo_BrigadaIntervencion_JBM.pdf. PALACIAN DE INZA, Blanca. «¿El
fin del M23? Hacía falta enseñar músculo». («The end of M23? It was necessary to flex
muscle») Analysis document of the Spanish Institute of Strategic Studies 52/2013. Avai-
lable on: http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/docs_analisis/2013/DIEEEA52-2013_
FinDelM23_BPI.pdf
69
United Nations Security Council Resolution 2098 (2013). Available at: http://www.
un.org/es/comun/docs/?symbol=S/RES/2098%282013%29 Consultation date: Sep-
tember 2013.
230
aim to openly combat the M23 and other Congolese and foreign armed
groups.70This Resolution is particularly important because it is the first
United Nation offensive combat force.71
From the deployment of the ONUC in 1960 until that of this offensive bri-
gade, the UN interventions in the DRC have gradually gained more capa-
bility of action, and more involvement in the domestic life. The United Na-
tions forces have even been branded «military tourists» by the Ugandan
President Museveni.
The current severity of the United Nations, in addition to the use of sur-
veillance drones, is considered the combination of effective tools to help
the Congolese army and for the military to defeat these groups. From a
more global analysis, it is possible that we are witnessing the birth of a
new type of peace-imposition missions of the United Nations, assuming a
more aggressive role in specific areas where the conflict is more deeply
entrenched.72
Use of unmanned aerial vehicles
The approval of unmanned aerial vehicles by the Security Council73 was

previous to that of the Intervention Brigade, but its first flight did not take
place until December of 2013.74
70
«MONUSCO should have, for an initial period of one year, and within the limits of
the maximum allowance authorized of 19,815 troops, exceptionally, and without setting
a precedent or without detriment to other principles convened for peace keeping, an
integrated «Intervention Brigade», among other things, three infantry battalions, one
of artillery, a special force, and a reconnaissance company with general headquarters
in Goma, under the direct command of the Commandant of the MONUSCO Forces, with
the responsibility of neutralizing armed groups, (….)» United Nations Security Council
Resolution 2098 (2013). Available at: http://www.un.org/es/comun/docs/?symbol=S/
RES/2098%282013%29 Consultation date: January 2014.
71
The Brigade, with a mandate period of one year which is expected to be extended,
has 3,069 soldiers from South Africa, Tanzania, and Malawi, and it includes two infantry
battalions, one artillery company, and another one of special forces.
72
DEEN, Talif. «U.N. Peacekeeping Goes on the Offensive». IPS, 13/11/2013.
73
Through a letter (S/2013/44) dated January 22, 2013 from the President of the Se-
curity Council, Masood Khan, to Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon in reply to a missive
from the latter (S/2013/43) of December 2012 which stated the need to have this data
collection equipment available for surveillance purposes for MONUSCO.
These letters are available on: https://www.un.org/en/sc/documents/letters/2013.
shtml.
74
The first drone used by the United Nations in the DRC, which is also the first one
used in a misión, in all its history, was a Falco, manufactured by Selex ES, and it started
functioning on December 3.
For more information regarding this vehicle and the problems that the United Nations
has had for its acquisition: LEE, Caitlin. «UN UAV procurement highlights political, acqui-
sition problems»- IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly. 09/12/2013. Available on: http://www.ja-
231
The purpose for its use is the prior reconnaissance of the areas before
carrying out a military action, but Martin Kobler, chief of the Mission and
Special Representative of the Secretary General for the DRC, also highlights
its obvious nature of dissuading armed groups crossing the borders. The-
se vehicles will also be useful to control trafficking of arms.
If the use of surveillance drones is successful, they are likely to be used
in other missions. Nevertheless, the Brigade as well as the use of survei-
llance drones are measures described by the United Nations as tempo-
rary, and specifically for the DRC.
New appointments
During the first semester of 2013, the military and civilian heads for the
MONUSCO changed, along with its new discourse being firmer, stronger,
and more proactive than reactive. «We will protect the civilians, and eli-
minate and neutralize the threats – declared General dos Santos, Com-
mander of the Mission. «We will not wait for the threats to turn against the
civilians.75»
Martin Kobler supported the same idea last January when he declared
that the MONUSCO «was not there to react, but to act.» 76
The European Union
Currently, in the framework of the Common Policy for Security and Defen-
se (PCSD), the European Union is involved in the Democratic Republic of
the Congo through two missions of expert advice and assistance: EUSED
RD Congo, aimed to reform the army since 2005, and EUPOL RD Congo,
a civilian mission deployed since 2007 with the purpose of restructuring
the police force. Spanish personnel have participated in both missions
dedicated to the Reform of the Security Sector, which have between 30
and 40 troops each.
The Security Sector Reform (SSR), is, according to the definition of
the Committee for Aid to Development (CAD) of the OECD (Organi-
nes.com/article/28184/un-uav-procurement-highlights-political-acquisition-problems
75
http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/peopleandpower/2014/01/congo-gene-
ral-2014131116336818.html.
76
KOBLER, Martin. «Turning promises into deeds. Statement of SRSG Martin Kobler to
the Security Council».13 January 2014. P.3. «Our position is clear: we are not in the De-
mocratic Republic of the Congo to react, but rather to act, we are not there to deter but
to prevent, and we not only keep peace, we must make peace a long-term reality! With
the Intervention Brigade and with our unmanned air vehicles all of the armed groups
are now conscious that we have the will and the means to take energetic measures at
any moment».
232
zation for Economic Cooperation and Development), the process

through which a country strives to «increase its capacity to meet all
security needs of its society, compatible with democratic standards
and with the accepted principles of governance, transparency, and
democracy.» 77
Thus, the general aim of the EUSEC RD Congo is to support the Congolese
authorities in the reconstruction of an army that guarantees security in
the country, thus enabling the necessary conditions for economic and so-
cial development. This mission works together with MONUSCO and with
EUPOL RD Congo so that the tasks performed by the Security Sector Re-
form are coordinated.
EUPOL RD Congo has police forces, personnel in the area of justice, and
human rights experts. Its objective is the restructure of the Congolese
police, and its coordination with other sectors of the civilian society. The
mission also intends to strengthen the fight against impunity of sexual
violence, and the abuses against human rights.
Other missions from the European Union deployed in the DRC were Arte-
mis, in 2003, in the district of Ituri, EUFOR RD Congo, to support MONUC
during the elections in the country in 2006, and the civilian mission EU-
POL Kinshasa, from 2005 to 2007, to set up an integrated police unit in
Kinshasa.
Perspectives for the future
The changes implemented by the United Nations and the government of

the DRC, along with the cooperation among different special envoys and
the regional accords, are gradually bearing fruit. Positive steps have been
taken, which were unthinkable only a few years ago, such as the Addis
Ababa accord, or the greater strength shown by the last decision made by
the Security Council to provide MONUSCO with an Intervention Brigade.
These steps show that the road taken is the right one.
Thus, in Resolution 2147 of the Security Council, where the man-
date of the Mission of the United Nations in the DRC is revised, an
optimistic tone is seen, and the need to have a clear exit strategy
is pointed out,78 always keeping in mind the evolution of the context
and the enforcement of the peace agreement. Nevertheless, there
is still much to be done, and it is a job that consumes human and
77
OECD DAC Handbook on Security System Reform (SSR): Supporting Security and
Justice (Paris: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2007. P. 21.
78
Resolution of the United Nations Security Council 2147 (2014). Regulation para-
graph 3. Available on: http://www.un.org/es/comun/docs/?symbol=S/RES/2147(2014)
Consultation date: September 2014.
233
economic resources. This is the reason why Resolution 2147 itself

contemplates a broad scenario, and establishes three priorities: the
protection of the civilian population, the stabilization of the country,
and the support to the application of the peace framework of Addis
Ababa, which outline the tasks for the immediate future. Monitoring
the enforcement of the arms embargo, the support to national and
international judicial processes, the involvement of the authorities
of the DRC in the reform of the security sector, the consolidation of a
civilian structure that can control the mining activities and its trade,
the establishment of a Rapid Response Force within the FARDC o the
call for an electoral roadmap are some of the measures established
in this Resolution.
The consolidation of peace includes a wide range of activities and it is
a long process which, as we have seen, begins before the end of the
hostilities. In addition it is a costly job, which requires the involvement
of local, regional, and international players with a high degree of or-
ganization and coordination. The approach to the complex problem of
a generalized use of violence cannot be done in a simplistic manner.
The end of this scourge will not see the light unless it is by persecuting
the crime and its perpetrators. Without solving the crisis of governance,
without the recovery of the monopoly of the legitimate use of violence
on behalf of the State, without the participation of the victims in the
negotiations and reparations, without the empowerment of the com-
munities,79 without an education that breaks learned gender patterns,
without development, without attention to those child combatants who
learned violent behavior through violence, or to those youngsters and
adults forced to rape their daughters, sisters or mothers, peace cannot
be consolidated.
Unfortunately, the resources dedicated to the consolidation of peace are
only a small part of what would be necessary for the success of this task.
This is why there is an urgent need to have our society understand that
peace and security have long been global, so political commitments may
go further than the short-term electoral campaign or the momentary me-
dia attention.
79
The empowerment of women should be accompanied by measures for men also,
of their empowerment and education, in order to reach a win-win environment, thus
avoiding the increase of the tension between men and women. The idea is to carry
out co-empowerment strategies so that the transformation reaches the entire com-
munity. For more information regarding this gender approach to sexual violence, it is
recommended to read: Increasing Security in DR Congo: Gender-Responsive Strategies
for Combating Sexual Violence. Clingendael, June 2011. CRU Policy Brief. Available at:
http://www.cd.undp.org/mediafile/20110531_cru_Policybrief_rsmits.pdf.
234
235
Chronology of the conflict
236
Baluchistan: Pakistan’s most turbulent reality Chapter
nine
Summary
The conflict or conflicts of Baluchistan do not often appear on the pages of

the Western media. However, its location as a corridor between the Iranian
plateau and the Indian subcontinent, as well as its position on the Arabian
Sea in the western Indian Ocean, make it a crossroads on the route be-
tween the Straits of Ormuz and those of Malacca, as well as the connection
with Central Asia for its coastal ports. The Baluchistan region is divided
among three countries (Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan) and in the first two
there is a presence of terrorist groups and insurgents capable of destabili-
zing the zone. In the case of Pakistan, since its independence in 1947, suc-
cessive conflicts have taken place, caused by the activities of these groups
and often accentuated by the political and military errors of the Islamabad
government. In 2003 a new phase of the conflict began which increased in
2005 and remains open. In Iran, although the conflict is less continuous and
has more of the characteristics of terrorism than of insurgency, it main-
tains tension with the successive appearance of terrorist groups.
Key words
Baluchistan, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Gwadar, Indian Ocean, Central

Asia, U.S., China, insurgency, terrorism, energy.
237
Baluchistan: Pakistan’s most turbulent reality
Introduction
Baluchistan1 is one of those regions generally forgotten by the Western

world. However, due to its geopolitical situation it is an area of special
importance2: it sits astride Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan; is an exit point
to the Indian Ocean for the Central Asian region and a coast of passage on
the trade route between the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf on the one hand
and the Straits of Malacca on the other. In addition, it is the eastern border
between Sunnis and Shiites. Also, at times, groups of separatist terro-
rists (from Pakistan and Iran) coincide in this region, and mix with Taliban
groups linked to AlQaeda. Neither should its existing natural and energy
resources be forgotten, nor its privileged location as a transit zone for oil
and gas pipelines. And so, in spite of being frequently in the news due to
asssaults, especially in Quetta, the capital of the Pakistani zone, and also
along the border between Pakistan and Iran, it seems to be relegated to
the category of latent conflict, with no analysis of its causes, antecedents
and possible consequences.
Geography3
This region, extending from the Iranian plateau to the mountain range of
Khirtar in the southeast and from the Sulaiman mountains in the northeast
to the Gulf of Oman in the Arabian Sea, is formed by rugged mountains of
sparse vegetation, as well as more fertile areas though of little rainfall and
dependant on the water and silt transported along the courses of rivers
and rainfall. This mountainous aridity is dominant in the Afghan and Iranian
areas. To the south lie desert areas known by the traditional name of Makran.
It is also an area prone to earthquakes, the most recent to date being that
of September 24 2013 with an intensity of 7.7 on the Richter scale. This
territorial composition produces agriculture based mainly on horticultu-
re, dependant on rainfall and the volume of flow of its rivers.
This obliges the construction of an artificial irrigation system of canals
and terraced land (qanats and gabarbands). In the oases of the Makran-
area desert, palm trees are cultivated.
The coastal area called Makran has some thousand kilometers of coast
of which 750 are in Pakistan and the rest in Iran. A series of small ports
1
Multiple transcriptions of the name of the region exist: Baluchistan, Balochistan,
Beluchistan or Belochistan.
2
AHMAD, Syed Igbal: Balochistan, Its Strategic Importance. Karachi, Royal Book Co.
1992.
3
Most of the descriptive data is taken from articles in the Encyclopedia Britannica,
from JANE’s, from the English Wikipedia, and from the U.S. Department of State (http://
countrystudies.us/pakistan/35.htm).
239
are located along the coast, such as Ghabahar, Gwatar, Jiwani, Gwadar,
Pasni and Ormara. The most important and significant of these is, as will
become evident, Gwadar. The Makran was in Omani hands from the end
of the XVIII century, even during the British presence, although in progres-
sive reduction to a point where only some 800 square km. around Gwadar
was held, until in 1958 this came definitively to form a part of the Makran
district within the Pakistani province of Baluchistan.
Political map of Baluchistan4
From a geopolitical5 point of view, we find ourselves in a transit zone be-

tween the Iranian Plateau and the Indian subcontinent, of which it repre-
sents the north-western border, called the Al Hind frontier6. At the same
time, it is the corridor from Afghanistan and Central Asia and its outlet
into the Indian Ocean. Down these corridors poured the historic invasions
and incursions of the Persian Empire, Alexander the Great, the Mongols
and of Arabs and Turkish tribes who brought Islam into this area as well
as into the north of the subcontinent. Its long coast also allowed access to
the Portuguese and British from the sea.
4
Source: http://www.columbia.edu/itc/mealac/pritchett/00maplinks/modern/mo-
dern index.html.
5
KAPLAN, Robert: The Vengeance of Geography. P194ss. Barcelona, RBA,2013.
6
WINK, André: Al Hind: The Making of the Indo-Islamic World, Vol.I, Early Medieval
India and the Expansion of Islam 7th-11th Century, chap. 4. Boston, Brill Academic Pu-
blishers, 1996.
240
As indicated above, the historic region has been distributed among three
countries (Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan) since the XIX century as a con-
sequence of the setting of borders by the British with Persia along the
Goldsmith Line in 1871 and with Afghanistan along the Mortimer Durand
Line in 1893. In Pakistan the province of Baluchistan is the largest of the
four existing, holding an extension of 347,190 square km., some eight mi-
llion inhabitants and a density of 22.8 inhabitants per square kilometer.
The province is structured into six divisions (Kalat, Makran, Naseerabad,
Qetta, Sibi and Zhob) which organize the 32 districts into which it is divi-
ded. Three areas may be distinguished: the coastal (Makran), the central
(Chalet), and in the north the area of Quetta, the capital of the province,
with 842,000 inhabitants, located very close to the Afghan border and
connected by road to the Afghan city of Kandahar. This area, as we shall
see, due to its proximity to Afghanistan and the Federally Administered
Tribal Lands (FATA) of Pakistan, directly suffers the consequences of the
situation: Afghan refugees and terrorist attacks. The capital of the provin-
ce is Quetta and the major cities are Gwadar, Turbat, Khuzdar and Kalat.
The tribal origin of the Baluchis7 together with the rugged terrain of the
region has facilitated the persistence of the tribal system. There exist
a great number of tribes, often with no very peaceful relations among
them, such as the tribes of the Marri, Dasti, Dasti Bugti, Buzdar, Lund,
Ranjhani, Ahmedani, Mazari, Mengal, Nuktani, Jiskani, Chandio, Muhha-
mad Hassani, Nausherwani, Laghari, Mir Jat, Rind, Bizenjo, Zehri, Dehwar,
Changwani, etc. The northern area of Baluchistan forms part of Afghanis-
tan and is made up of the Chahar Burjak district in the province of Nimruz
and the desert region of Registan divided into the provinces of Helmand
and of Kandahar. Some of the Afghan governors of these three provinces
have been of Baluchi origin.
The great majority of the inhabitants of the area are Sunnis, even in Ira-
nian Baluchistan. Only a few significant Shii are to be found in the Hazara
population of the city of Quetta or among the Sistanis in the northern area
of the Iranian province of Sistar and Baluchistan. Normally this is a mo-
derate Islam which has come into conflict with the radical visions of the
Taliban who originate in Afghanistan or in the FATA and have immigrated
into the Baluchi region as a consequence of the extension of the conflict
in both areas.
In Iran8 we find the province of Sistan and Baluchistan, geographically se-
parated from the rest of Iran by the Lut desert. It is one of the present-day
Iranian provinces, with an extension of 181,785 Kms2 and some two and
7
QUDDUS, Syed Abdul: Tribal Baluchistan. Lahore, Ferozsons 1990.
8
HOURCADE, Bernard: Géopolitique de l’Iran. Paris, Armand Colin, 2012, pp 26-31,
162-164 and 210. Dudoignon, S.: Voyage au pays des Baloutches (Iran, debut du XXI
siecle). Paris, Cartouche, 2009.
241
a half million inhabitants. In the north is located the Sistan (formerly

Nimrouz), a flat area watered by the River Hilmand which descends from
the Hindu Kush mountains, permitting a flourishing agriculture. This area
of the province holds a small Baluchi presence found concentrated in the
center and south of the province. The Sistanis are Shiites, the Baluchis
are Sunnites. The capital of the province is Zahedan, where reside about
600,000 of the two and a half million who live in the province, of whom
about a million and a half would be Baluchis.They are still a people with
strong tribal structures (one of their principal tribes is that of the Rigi,
which like others is spread along both sides of the border) engaging in
cross-border contraband operations in an underdeveloped area with an
incipient urbanization highly concentrated on the capital.
In 2009, the Iranian and Pakistani railway networks were connected in
Zahedan, a fact which has helped the economic and population growth
of the city.
The rest of the territory, however, is still poor and underdeveloped. In
addition, the traditional tribal practice of smuggling has drifted into drug
traffic, since the area is located on the opium route out of Afghanistan
and Pakistan on the way to Turkey as the entry port to Europe. For the
Iranian government, the difficult border control in an area little inclined
towards the Shiite government of Tehran is a major problem, not only due
to drugs but also as a possible zone of passage for illegal trade in nuclear
materials.
Population and Languages
It is difficult to know how many Baluchis there currently are, although an

approximate figure would be some twelve million, of whom about nine
million would be living in Pakistan, a million and a half in Iran, some three
hundred thousand in Afghanistan, some four hundred thousand in Oman
and another two hundred thousand scattered throughout the United Arab
Emirates, India, Turkmenistan, and certain countries of Africa’s Indian
Ocean coastline, such as Kenia and Tanzania.
Their language is Baluchi, a tongue of Indo-European origin belonging
to the Indo-Iranian family, within the north-western Iranian group. It is
a co-official language in the respective provinces of Pakistan and Iran,
there being an official academy of the language with its central office in
Pakistan. Different dialects are spoken depending on the area: In the east,
Rakhsahan, with several variants (Sarhaddi, Afgano, Turkmenish, Panjgu-
ri, Kalati, Kharani and Sarawani); in the south, Makrani, with its variants
(the Coastal, Lashari, Kechi and Karachi); and in the east, Sulaymani, with
its dialects (Bugti, Marri-Rind, Mazari-Domki, Mandawni and Khatoi)
242
The Baluchis seem to be a people of Iranian origin, having arrived around

the year 1000 from the shores of the Caspian Sea. They had a tribal or-
ganization which at times gave rise to the creation of tribal confedera-
tions in conflict with each other. The most important era was that of the
Kingdom of Kalat, which united almost all the tribes in 1638 and came to
proclaim its independence in 1747.
However, the region holds as well other peoples and ethnic groups, such
as the Brahui, the Pashtuns or the Makranis.
History9
This region has been populated for some nine thousand years; a period
corresponding to the remains of certain Neolithic settlements. In the
Bronze Age, about 4,500 years ago, it formed a part of the Harappa cultu-
re in the Indo River basin. At the end of the second millennium B.C. people
of Aryan origin began to enter, among them the Baluchis.The Archimedan
Empire also acted upon the region and the troops of Alexander the Great
crossed the area of Makran on the way back from their expedition to In-
dia. The Seleucid Empire, too, carried out incursions into the area. Tribes
of other origins also appeared in the last century before our era. From
the east, coming from the north of the Indian subcontinent, the Mauryan
Empire (322-252 B.C.) dominated the territory. Coming down to our era,
the Kushan Empire (30-375), out of the north, conquered the area, pene-
trating into the greater part of the Ganges plain. Between the years 320
and 550 those controlling the country were of the Indian Empire of the
Gupta dynasty, although the Persian Sassanid Empire was also present.
In the seventh century Baluchistan was divided into two regions: the west
formed part of the Persian province of Karman, and the northwest area,
of the province of Sistan. With the expansion of the Arabs and their victory
over the Sassanid Empire, Islam arrived in the region on its way to India.
In the year 644 Caliph Omar conquered Baluchistan from the interior of
the Iranian plateau and subsequently, the Makran area from the sea. Al-
though in the early years several revolts took place, Islam settled into
the area. The region was totally Islamized by the IX century, and at the
beginning of the tenth century the Mameluke Mahmud al-Gazi created
an empire unifying the entire area, from Afghanistan to the north of In-
dia. During this era the Persian Gaznavid Empire was also present. From
1526 on, the dominant power was the Mongol empire, which would last
until 1858. During this time a certain degree of autonomy was enjoyed by
the Khanate of Kalat, which gradually extended its influence throughout
9
DASHTI, Naseer: The Baloch and Belochistan. A Historical Account. Bloomington,
Trafford, 2012. May also consult: http://balochistanarchives.gov.pk/.
243
the area. Until the arrival of the British, a series of different dynasties
succeeded themselves in the region, under the influence of Afghanistan.
In 1849 there occurred the arrival of the British, whose presence would
last until their departure in 1947. The British, through their East India
Company,10 exercised control, improving the infrastructure, and, using as
support the tribal chiefs and their quarrels, managed to maintain their
power in the area. During the second half of the century the eastern area
was under British influence while the west was annexed by Iran, and as
stated above, the coastal area was controlled by the Omanis.
While the British ruled, they created four principalities after their ex-
pansion from India: Makran, Kharan, Las Bela and the most important of
them, Kalat.
Well into the 20th century, when the imminent departure of the British
was evident, Mir Ahmed Yar Khan, king of Kalat, favored the creation of
an independent State in Baluchistan. Thus, when the States of India and
Pakistan were proclaimed in 1947, the king also proclaimed his indepen-
dence as well as that of his own State. This situation was not accepted by
the Pakistani government, which invaded the region in April of 1948. An
agreement was signed renouncing the formation of an independent Balu-
chi state. However, this accord was not accepted by all, which gave rise to
the first conflict as analyzed below.
Pakistani political system.
The Pakistani political system has been stormy ever since its indepen-
dence in 1947. Until 1956 it had no Constitution. In 1962 a new Consti-
tution was approved. As a consequence of independence in 1971 for the
eastern part, Bangladesh, a third was approved in 1973. However, the
activities of the army and the intelligence services, which have always
had, and continue to play, a fundamental role in Pakistani political life,
have brought about long periods of governments headed by the military.11
10
KEAY, John: The Honourable Company. A History of the English East India Company.
London, Harper Collins, 1991. ARBOR, M.I. and Robins, Nick: The Corporation that Chan-
ged the World. How the East India Company Shaped the Modern Mutinational. Hydeba-
rat, Orient Longman, 2006 (2nd Ed.).
11
In 1958 General Ayub Khan carried out a bloodless coup d’etat deposing Iskan-
der Mizra who months before had deposed Izkander Mirza. In 1977, General Zia alHaq
ousted Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and governed until his death in 1988 in an air accident of
still-murky circumstances. In 1999, General Pervez Musharraf, who the previous year
had replaced General Jehangir Karamat as Head of the Armed Forces, dissolved the
government of Sharif and ran the country until 2008 when, in August, he was forced to
resign from the Presidency.
244
Currently the parliamentary system is made up of two Chambers. The

National Assembly, with a 5-year term of office, is composed of 342 mem-
bers, of whom 272 are elected by universal suffrage. They are distribu-
ted among the four provinces: 148 from the Punjab, 61 from Sindh, 35
from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (until 2010 called the Northwest Province),
and 14 from Baluchistan. In addition, there are 12 seats reserved for the
FATA, 2 for the Federal District of the Capital (Islamabad), 10 reserved
for religious minorities and 60 for women. The Senate has 100 mem-
bers elected by the provincial assemblies with a six-year mandate. As to
the government ministers, these must be elected among the members of
Parliament.
For their part, the four provinces are provided with a Provincial Assembly.
These are required to contain general seats, as well as those reserved
for non-Moslems and for women. The Provincial Assembly of Baluchistan
is made up of 65 seats: 51 general, 11 for women and 3 for non-Mos-
lems. The Assembly of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa holds 124 (99, 22, and 9)
that of the Punjab, 371 (297, 66, and 8), and that of Sinh, 168 (130, 29,
and 9). Elections are held every five years, and each province elects 19
Senators.12
Actors
A multiplicity of actors exist who add a degree of extreme complexity to

a conflict conditioned by its geopolitical situation, its rugged or desert
terrain, the still predominant tribal tradition and the diversity of interests.
In the first place, mention should be made of the governments, the central
as well as the provincial, of Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan. Since the end
of World War II, the region has witnessed instability, especially in Pakis-
tan and Afghanistan, whose relations have undergone continuous chan-
ge, having there been frequent Pakistani accusations of help and even
shelter given to Baluchi nationalist groups. The situation of the Pashtun
tribes and their actions has not helped good relations. On the other hand,
neither have relations between Iran and Pakistan.13 in spite of their sha-
red anti-separatist interests, been easy, due to their religious differences
and their different international positions, which have made border con-
trol extremely difficult.
In addition, the non- agreement between the central Pakistani govern-
ment and the provincial government on several occasions has been of no
help in pacifying the situation.
Pakistan, Internal Affairs. HIS Jane’s,30 April 2014.

12
UL HASSAN, Minjah: Pakistan-Iran Relations in Historical Perspective. University of

13
Peshawar, 2004.
245
The importance which the intelligence services hold in Pakistani political

life should not be overlooked. The most important is the Directorate for
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and this is in addition to the Intelligence
Bureau and the Military Intelligence (MI).
In the case of Iran, repression was harsh during the Imperial era and
things did not change with the revolution; rather the opposite occurred,
except during the stage of moderate government which allowed a period
of calm.
In the second place, attention should be focused on the tribal players, of
major importance as indicated above. Three stand out among the multitu-
de of existing tribes: the Marri, the Bugti and the Mengal.14
The Marri, formed of three tribal subgroups, occupy most of the district of
Kohlu in the border zone of Dera Ghazi. They are very active in legal ac-
tions within parties as well as in guerrilla movements. The Bugti, formed
of seven tribal subgroups, were led by Nawab Agbar Khan Bugti together
with 30 other members of the tribe until his death in 2006, which was the
motive for a strong insurgent movement in the area. They have played a
major role in elections and in the provincial government, of which Nawab
was governor after the democratic restoration in 1988.
During the mandate of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the Mengal, led by Ataullah
Mengal, were involved in harsh confrontations with the Pakistani army.
In the third place is to be found a complex web of parties and political
groups. The principal nationalist parties are: The Baluchistan National
Party (BNP), The Jamboori Watan Party (JWP), the Baloch Haq Talwar
(BHT), and the National Party (NP).
The BNP was founded by Sardar Ataullah Mengal through the fusion of
two pre-existing groups: the sector of the National Movement of Balu-
chistan, led by Mengal himself, and the Ghous Baksh Bizenjo of the Natio-
nal Party of Pakistan. Since the beginning it has had representation in the
provincial government as well as in the National Assembly.
The JWP was founded and led in 1990 by Agbar Buti. It is a party basically
formed by members of the Bugti tribe.
The BHT also has a tribal base, in this case the Marri tribe. It was founded
by Nawab Khair Baksh Marri, whose son was charged by the government
with having instigated the insurrection of 2005.
The NP arose out of the fusion of the National Movement of Baluchistan
and the National Democratic Party of Baluchistan. It is led by Abdul Ha-
ANDLEY, Priyashree: Balochistan, a Backgrounder. New Delhi, Institute of Peace and

14
Conflict Studies.
246
yee. It is flatly opposed to the projects promoted by the central govern-

ment in Gwadar.
Additionally, a strong Baluchistan Organization of Students exists, very
representative of the middle classes, which has frequently confronted
the military, mobilizing at one point in the 1990’s more than 20,000 mili-
tants. It is not linked to any political group.
There also exists a Pashtun-based party, the Pashtun Khwa Milli Awami
(PKMAP), founded in 1987 to defend the creation of the administrative
province in competition with the Baluchi defenders of this creation.
The principal insurgent separatist groups are Baloch Liberation Army
(BLA), the Lashkar-e-Balochistan (LeB), and the Balochistan Liberation
Tigers (BLT). Also acting or having acted are other groups such as the Ba-
loch People’s Liberation Front (BPLF), the Baloch Republican Army (BRA)
and the Baloch Liberation Front (BLP).15
Nor should the major presence of Pakistani nationalist parties be igno-
red. The most important are the Moslem League of Pakistan-Nawaz PLM
(PLM-N), the People’s Party of Pakistan (PPP), and the Moslem League of
Pakistan (Quaid-e-Azam) (PLM-Q). To the first belongs the present Prime
Minister, Nawaz Sherif, who won the latest elections. Its electoral base
is centered basically in the Punjab. It governed before Musharraf’s coup,
from 2008 to 2013 it was the principal opposition party, and it clearly won
the 2013 elections. The PPP is the principal non-religious liberal party;
among its leaders the Bhutto family has always stood out. During the pe-
riod from 2008 to 2013 it governed with Zardari as President.
Also present is the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), formed in the 80’s
out of the student movement in Karachi. Although it supported the Mus-
harraf government, between 2008 and 2013 it formed part of Zardari’s
government. Its leader is Altaf Hussein. The Tehreek-e-Insaf, a party re-
cently created by the former cricket player Imran Khan, holds very na-
tionalistic positions and is basically directed towards the middle class,
disappointed with more traditional parties.
The BLA is older. It appeared in the year 2000. It acts in Pakistan although
it defends the existence of an independent Baluchistan uniting all the Ba-
luchi territories presently divided among three States. It believes that the
Baluchis suffer from the exploitation of their natural resources in benefit
of third parties and that they are marginalized from political life. They
carry out assaults against security forces and against infrastructure, es-
pecially in the field of energy.
Non-State Armed Groups. HIS Jane’s.30 April 2014.

15
247
The LeB has acted since 2009 in Pakistan. It defends the secession of
the province from the rest of Pakistan. Some link it to the Baluchistan
National Party (BNP).They act mainly against infrastructure and against
military garrisons. It has also carried out attacks outside Baluchistan.
Thus, on April 24, 2012, it launched an attack in Lahore, in the provin-
ce of the Punjab, in which four people perished and more than 60 were
injured. Furthermore, on the 23 of July, it organized another assault, on
the Chinese consulate in Karachi, as it considered that the Chinese also
participated in the exploitation of the Baluchis.
The most recent is the BLT founded in August of 2011. It has been accused
of being a group created by foreign services to destabilize the country. It
carried out assaults on the Bismallah Hotel of Dera Allahyar on 14 August
2011 (date of the celebration of Pakistani independence) causing 15 dea-
ths and 23 injured, and an attack on July 6, 2012 on a bus in the Turbat
district causing 18 civilian deaths. Since then it has been inactive.
Geopolitical Situation
The region of Baluchistan occupies a geopolitical position of special stra-

tegic relevance for all the actors in the area. It is located on the edge of
the Indian Ocean,16 so often overlooked in favor of the pre-eminence of
the Pacific; and yet, Alfred Thayer Mahan observed that «he who controls
the Indian Ocean will dominate Asia; this Ocean is the twenty-first-cen-
tury key to the seven seas; the fate of the world will be decided in these
waters.» This ocean is the meeting point between India (which considers
it its own), China (for whom it is an energy transit route fundamental to its
development), and the U.S., which after a period of oblivion, has returned
in force to this area, whether due to its proximity to the Near East and
Central Asia or because it is a possible area of contention with China.
Neither should Russia be forgotten; even though at this point her pre-
sence is minimal, nonetheless her historic interest in opening a passage
from the Russian steppes to the Indian Ocean through Central Asia and
Iran is well-known. Such other actors as Australia should also be kept in
mind. Baluchistan is located near the Straits of Ormuz, point of departure
for petroleum and gas towards the Western Pacific, especially China, en
route to the south of India and the straits of Malacca. It also stands as an
exit corridor from Central Asia towards the sea, for its peoples as well as
for its energy resources.
Baluchistan is an eastern border zone between Sunni and Shiite Islam;
between the center of Pakistan and Iran; an area of concentration of the
Taliban and the terrorist groups close to Al-Qaida, in an area where the
16
KAPLAN, Robert D.: Monzon. A voyage through the future of the Indian Ocean. Ma-
drid. The Man of Three 2012.
248
tension between Pakistan and India, between China and Pakistan, remain
high and their evolution unpredictable. A clear example of the geopolitical
value of the area lies in the situation of Gwadar and its port.
Gwadar
The city of Gwadar has a long history. In the year 643 it was captured and
Islamized by Omar. In 1581 it was attacked and sacked by the Portuguese.
In 1783 it passed into Omani control until September 8th of 1958 when
Prince Karim Agha Khan bought it from Oman for three million dollars
and turned it over to Pakistan. It was then a small fishing town but wi-
thin an important geostrategic location. On July 1st of 1977, the Pakis-
tani government created the Gwadar District with its capital in this city
and in 1993 decided to develop a broad plan for the construction of a
deepwater port to be connected with the rest of the country by highway
and railroad, at the same time creating a Gwadar Development Authority.
In 2002 the construction of the port began; in this year as well, construc-
tion of a 653-kilometer highway was begun. This, following the coastline
of the Makran, would join Gwadar with Karachi and the Pakistani highway
network, and was completed in 2004. This year a new 820-kilometer hi-
ghway was begun, to link the city to Ratodero in the Sindh province pas-
sing through Turbat, Hoshab, Awaran and Khuzdar. In 2007 the Aeronau-
tical Authority purchased land for the construction of a large airport. At
the same time the Gwadar Development Authority prepared an ambitious
50-year development plan for a broad industrial area.
In 2002 construction of the port began, its first phase having been completed
at the end of 2006 and inaugurated in March of 2007.The cost of this phase
came to some 248 million dollars. The second phase, with an estimated cost
of 932 million, got underway in March of the same year. An agreement for its
administration was signed with the Singapore Port Authority for a 40-year
period. However, in 2011, China demonstrated interest in the port and its
development. In early 2013 an agreement was reached whereby the China
Overseas Port Holding Company will participate in the second phase of the
enlargement and will take charge of the administration of the port.
As will be seen below, this port plays a major role in Chinese strategy in
the area. This fact has stimulated the interest of India in supporting the
development of the Iranian port of Chabahar, 70 kilometers away. As well,
it has financed the Zaranj-Delarm highway connecting the Iranian port
with Afghanistan, in a significant example of the play of interests between
India and China in both the Indian Ocean and in Central Asia.17
SHAZAD, Lai: India, jostling for geopolitical control in Afghanistan. Open Democracy,
17
27 March 2014.
249
The instability of the area should not be forgotten, several terrorist acts ha-
ving taken place there. So, for example, on March 29 of 2014 the radar sta-
tion at Pasni, near Gwadar, was attacked (in an act, responsibility for which
remains unclaimed by any group) which destroyed part of its facilities.18
The energy factor19
As in many areas, energy factors play a major role in the geopolitics and
geostrategy of the area. This must be kept in mind when analyzing the
conflicts.
Pakistani Baluchistan holds major coal and gas reserves. Fifty percent of
the country’s energy consumption comes from these deposits, Pakistan
being one of the countries of greatest dependency on gas as a source of
energy.
However, 17% of the population consumes between 36% and 45% of
national production, helping to create a feeling of exploitation, especia-
lly considering that the principal fields of production, the Suis, lie in an
area in the tribal zone of the Bugti, one of the most nationalistic areas. To
transport the gas, there is a network of more than 27,000 kilometers of
pipelines, part of which lie within the province. During conflicts, even at
the quietest of times, these pipelines come under attack.
Additionally, there are construction projects for international gas pi-
pelines which would pass through the province, such as the Iran-Pa-
kistan-India project for a longitude of 2,700 kilometers, and the Tur-
kmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) project for some 1,700
kilometers. Both projects represent major investments and thus the
clash of interests between the companies and the countries, and not
only in this area. Stability and security are fundamental to the carrying
out of these projects.
A third project would be the connection of Central Asia with the port
of Gwadar and the transport of liquid gas from there. This factor also
explains China’s interest in this port and in the achievement of stability
and pacification in the area. Development plans and heavy investment
around the port are an instrument for the guarantee of its security. The
inhabitants of the area, however, feel that they have little participation
in these projects, which in the end will redound to the benefit of outside
interests.
Therefore, the existence of major energy resources, projects for gas
transport, and the related heavy investment should aid in the economic
18
Pakistan News Digest, March 2014. IDSA, New Delhi.
19
WIRSING, Robert G.: Baloch Nationalism and the Geopolitics of Energy Resources:
the changing context of separatism in Pakistan. Strategic Studies Institute, April 2008.
250
growth of a poorly developed area, bringing greater stability and securi-

ty. However, the management of projects with complex interests and the
perception of little participation by the inhabitants of the province could
represent a new factor for greater destabilization, with an increase of
nationalist movements.
Background
In Pakistan20 Geography and history have produced a region with a strong

personality, although there seems to be frequent interference from the
ancient and profound tribal tradition, creating a complex dialect of inte-
rests, as is usually found in all areas of tribal composition. The decons-
truction of the British Empire, which had been based on the traditional co-
lonial polices of encouraging division in order to guarantee better control
of its areas and avoid or limit insurrections, reinforced these particular
tendencies after the departure of the troops. The separation between Is-
lam and Hinduism not only brought about the existence of two countries,
India and Pakistan, but also meant the creation of countries with pro-
found domestic differences. Baluchistan is an example.
The inhabitants of this province, who hold strong feelings of identification
with it, have felt exempted from political power both within their province
as well as in the central government, a government which has tended to
benefit some ethnic groups to the detriment of others.
The uniting of a strongly militarized power and the constant increase of
the military presence21 in the province have accentuated the non-demo-
cratic tendencies of the political structures and this has had a bearing
as well on the yearning for participation in power of the growing midd-
le class, even in an economic situation which is not always sufficiently
developed.
There is also the perception of little participation by the inhabitants in the
exploitation of natural and energy resources in the area, in detriment to
the local population and in favor of other provinces.
The sum total of all these factors has created conditions which facilitate
the existence of successive conflicts, since the resolution of each one of
them is a false solution, which does not deal with the causes of the con-
flict and which in the best of cases permits temporary periods of relative
20
ANDLEY, Priyashree: Balochistan, a Backgrounder. Institute of Peace and Conflict
Studies, IPCS Special Report. October 2006. New Delhi. KUPECZ, Mickey: Pakistan’s Ba-
loch Insurgency. International Affairs Review. Vol. XX, no. 3. Spring 2012.
21
RICH, Paul B. And DUYVESTEYN, Isabelle: The Routledge Handbook of Insurgency
and Counter-Insurgency, p. 327. Abingdon, Routledge, 2014.
251
peace and in the worst cases, deepens existing differences and exacer-
bates wounds ever more difficult to heal.
1948, First Conflict
As indicated above, upon the departure of the British and the proclama-
tion of the States of India and Pakistan, the Baluchi area of Kalat refused
incorporation into Pakistan and thus Mir Ahmad Yar Khan proclaimed the
independent State of Kalat. The Pakistani government sent troops to the
area and after a brief confrontation, the area was incorporated into Pa-
kistan. However, Prince Karim, Khan’s brother, did not accept the capitu-
lation and began an insurgent nationalist movement which lasted until
1950 when Prince Karim was captured. During this time the region was
governed directly by the central government.
1958-1960, Second Conflict
In 1955, the four Pakistani provinces were merged in order to strengthen

national unity. This measure, however, fortified and radicalized the Balu-
chi nationalist circles, and Prince Karim, recently released, created the
People’s Party, bringing the different tribes together and giving them a
political presence.
In 1958 the Pakistani government arrested Karim, charging him with pro-
moting independence in an alliance with Afghanistan, and the army took
over the streets. This produced a series of violent acts with a number of
tribes refusing to hand their arms over to the army, so producing a broad
guerrilla movement under the leadership of Nauroz Khan. The confronta-
tion would last until July of 1960 when the latter died while under arrest
and another five leaders were condemned to be hanged for treason.
1963-1969, Third Conflict
Once having smothered this revolt, the army built new garrisons throu-
ghout the province of Baluchistan. At the same time the nationalist move-
ment was drifting into positions on the left under the leadership of Sher
Mohammad Marri. A series of guerrilla camps were created, from the
tribal areas of the Mengals in Jhalawan in the south to the tribal areas
of the Marri and the Bugti in the north. The guerrilla movement contro-
lled a broad area of the province in 1963 and launched attacks against
the railroad and military convoys. The combats did not cease until 1969
when General Yahya Khan abandoned the centralized measures adopted
in 1955 and so achieved a cease-fire agreement. In 1970 Baluchistan be-
came a unified province of Pakistan.
252
1973-1977, Fourth Conflict
The National Awami Party was created in 1972; allied to the Islamist Ja-
mait-Ulema-i-Islam, it opposed President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in the elec-
tions, achieving a victory in the province and a presence in the provincial
government, from which it demanded greater participation in the social
and economic development of the area. But in 1973, Bhutto dismissed the
provincial government and put the province under the direct rule of the
central government. The ousted government led a vigorous insurrectio-
nist movement with the strong support of the Marri tribes and the stu-
dent movement, attacking the petroleum infrastructure. The government
sent in 80,000 troops with heavy arms and helicopters, touching off an
authentic armed conflict which would last until 1977 and in which more
than 5,000 insurgents and 3,300 soldiers would die. The army would go
so far as to use armed ships, provided by an Iran fearful of the spreading
of the conflict.
The insurrectionist movement, organized around the People’s Liberation
Front of Baluchistan and led by Khair Bakhsh Marri, presented itself not
as a separatist movement but as a movement for the liberation of the en-
tire Pakistani people. Its claims were therefore centered not on secession
but on the demand for a profound autonomy under the leadership of Mir
Hazar Khan Marri.
In 1977 there occurred a coup led by General Muhammad Zia which
executed the deposed President Bhutto. The new President concluded a
cease-fire with no autonomist concessions but granting the release of
prisoners of a movement bled dry and leaderless from the effects of the
harsh combat and having lost the aid lent by the Afghan government of
Mohammed Daoud after this collapsed in 1978.
The participation of the nationalist movements in the elections allowed a
period of calm during the 80’s and 90’s. However, the lack of a solution
in depth to the existing problems would lead to a fifth conflict beginning
in 2005.
2005, commencement of a fifth conflict22
During these years a new middle class developed, far removed from tri-
bal systems, moderately nationalist and politically articulate, around the
Baluchi National Movement led by Abdul Hayee Baloch. This development
coincided with plans for the development of the area around Gwadar and
the coastal zone. However, the governments of General Musharraf, fo-
llowing the traditional policies of weakening or persecuting nationalist
Grare, Frederic. Baluchistan, fin de partie?. Herodote, 2010/4 no. 139, pp 99-122.
22
253
positions either through bribes and the encouragement of tribal divisions

or simply through varying degrees of repression, ended by encouraging
the radicalization of the moderate sectors such as that led by Atuallah
Mengal within the Baluchi National Movement; Mengal, fearing to be pus-
hed aside by manoeuvres of the central government, abandoned the tra-
ditional autonomist positions of the movement to demand the indepen-
dence of Baluchistan.
And so, in the elections of 2002, victory was achieved by the Moslem Lea-
gue of Pakistan, led by Musharraf, through a pact with the Muttahida Ma-
jlis-e-Amal (an alliance of six Islamic groups backed by the government
itself in its process of greater Islamization of the country) which had ob-
tained second place, forming a government which completely cornered
the nationalist groups.
This situation, added to the growing dissatisfaction with the insufficient
participation of the Baluchis in the development around Gwadar, plus the
growing military presence to guarantee calm in the area, created a situa-
tion of increasing instability. In this new stage of the conflict, the principal
protagonists would be the Dera Bugti and Marri tribes.
An incident23 taking place in the hospital at Sui between a group of sol-
diers and the wife of a doctor would be the spark that ignited a new con-
flict. In the face of rising nationalist unrest, strongly represented by the
Baluchistan Liberation Army, Musharraf opted for the use of force to defi-
nitively end the problem of Baluchistan. Varied assaults, including aerial
attacks, were added to forced movement of population, illegal arrests,
torture, and extrajudicial executions carried out by security forces and
the intelligence agencies. At the same time the official press launched
charges of interference by other countries (India, Afghanistan, the U.S.,
and Iran) in order to intensify the conflict and weaken Pakistan. More than
their accuracy, these charges reflect the clash of interests and the strate-
gic importance of the area.
In the elections of 2008, the People’s Party of Pakistan, led by Asif Zardari,
won elections all over the country, as well as in the province of Baluchis-
tan. In October of that year, Zardari created a Committee of Reconciliation
in Baluchistan. On November 24 of 2009, the committee presented 39
concrete proposals, and the government demonstrated a predisposition
to grant autonomy to the province. The nationalist movements considered
the proposed measures insufficient, and demanded the cessation of ac-
tion on the part of the army and of acts of interference by the intelligence
agencies.
23
Amir Ali Chandio: Baloch National Movement 2003-2012, An analysis. Interdiscipli-
nary Journal of Contemporary Research in Business, Vol. 4, no. 10, February 2013, pp.
1048-1059.
254
In December of 2009 the nationalist groups voted against the proposals

and despite some measures on the part of the central government, the
actions of the army and the intelligence agencies, overt or covert, conti-
nued during the year 2010.24
Parallel to this situation, it should be kept in mind that in the northern
area of the province, in Quetta and its district, where there is a strong
Pashtun presence, which has increased with the great numbers of refu-
gees proceeding from Afghanistan and from the Pakistani FATA areas as
a result of the confrontations occurring on both sides of the Afghan-Pa-
kistani border, there is strong and growing terrorist activity,25 against
both Pakistani forces and against the Shiite Hazaris26 who live in the
area and engage in major trade activity. These latter claim to have lost,
in assaults, more than 800 members of their community due to attacks
by Sunni groups. There have arisen groups such as Laskhar-e-Jhangvi
or Sipah-e-Shuhada-e-Balochistan, which carry out frequent attacks on
groups of Hazaris on route to Iranian pilgrimage sanctuaries. In one such
attack, on January 22 of 2014, 22 pilgrims perished.
As indicated above, in 1871 the British divided Baluchistan between the Indian
zone and the Iranian zone along the Goldsmith line, thus producing what would
be the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchistan; a province whose inhabi-
tants are mostly of differing ethic origins and languages, but whose majority
religion is Sunni Islam as opposed to a Shiite majority in the rest of Iran.
The relations between the two communities were never easy. During the
reign of the Pahlavi Shahs, between 1928 and 1979, repression was even
harsher than in the rest of the country, which produced a strong insur-
gency between the years 1969 and 1973, with the more or less covert
support of Iraq ( as a response to the Iranian support of the Iraqi Kurds),
Dubai, Syria and Egypt.
The Iranian revolution and the creation of an Islamic State (Shiite) in 1979
made the situation even more difficult for the Baluchis. Thus was created
the fermentation vat for the appearance of separatist groups of a terro-
rist nature. The most outstanding is Jundallah (or Jondallah).27
This group was formed in 2003, although it did not become clearly ope-
rative until 2005. Its leader and founder was Abdolmalik Rigi together
with his brother Abdolhamid Rigi and other family members; the former
24
IISS: Bad Times in Baluchistan. IISS Strategic Comments, vol. 17, 26 Dec. 2011.
25
GONZALEZ MARTÍN, Andrés: Evolution of the Conflict in Pakistan. An Uncertain Fu-
ture. Geopolitical Overview of Conflicts, 2013 pp 269-302. Madrid, IIEE 2013.
26
BANERJI, Rana: Balochistan. Looking Beyond the Hazari Massacre. Institute of Pea-
ce and Conflict Studies, 15 January 2013.
27
Jondallah. IHS Jane’s. 17 October 2013.
KOLSTAD WIIG, Audun: Islamist Opposition in the Islamic Republic. Jundullah. Norwe-
gian Defence Research Establishment, 2009.
255
used as an alias Abdul Malik Baluchi, until his arrest and execution in
June of 2010.His brother had been executed the previous month.
His successor is Muhammad Zahir Baluch. Since 2007 the group has ac-
ted under the name People’s Resistance Movement of Iran, although at
times it has also used the name Popular Resistance Movement.
Although the Iranian government has accused the U.S. of financing the
group, it is considered by the U.S. to be a terrorist organization. The group
has always denied association with AlQuaeda or with any other group.
At certain times, it seems to have received some type of support from Is-
rael, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and certain Western countries (Switzerland,
the U.K. and the US).
The group does not consider itself to be a separatist group but rather
a defender of a democratic Iran which also recognizes the autonomy of
areas such as the province of Sistan and Baluchistan. Its membership
seems to have risen to about 2000 militants.
Its most significant actions have been:
• In 2005, it made an attempt on the life of President Mahmoud Ah-
madinejad during his visit to this province, causing the death of a
bodyguard and several wounded.
• On March 16 of 2006, it cut off a highway for four days near Tasoo-
ki, murdering 21 civilians.
• The 14th of February of 2007 it placed a car bomb in Zahedan cau-
sing the death of 18 members of the Revolutionary Guard.
• On the 19th of August of the same year, it kidnapped 21 truck dri-
vers near Chah Bahar, driving them to Pakistan, where they were
freed by the police.
• The 13th of June of 2008, it kidnapped 16 policemen.
• The 19th of December of the same year it carried out a suicide at-
tack in Saravan which caused the death of four persons in addition
to the driver.
• On May 28th 2009 it set off a bomb in the Zahedan mosque causing
25 deaths and 125 wounded.
• On October 18th the same year a suicide attack caused the death
of 42 people, among them 6 officials of the Revolutionary Guard
in Pishin, in the province of Sistan and Baluchistan; on July 16th of
2010 27 people died in a double suicide attack at the Jamia mos-
que in Zahedan.
The death of its leader has caused a reduction in the activities of the
group. However, a new Sunni group has arisen: Jaish al-Adl.28 This group
«Increased Sectarian Violence in Pakistan’s Balochistan Province Likely Raises Risk

28
of Wider Sunni-Shia Coflict.» Jane’s Intelligence Weekly. 8 April 2014; and «Kidnapping
256
was formed in 2012 (in a way similar to other Sunni groups in other areas
of Iran such as Harakat Ansar which merged with Hiz al-Furqan in De-
cember of 2013 to form Ansar al-Furqan). All of these use jihadist rheto-
ric and appear to enjoy some financing from Saudi Arabia within the fra-
mework of the confrontation between Sunnism and Shiism. Jaish al-Adl
appears to have the support of Baluchi separatist networks in Iran and
Pakistan. Its activities are centered mainly on the border, where on Octo-
ber 25 of 2013 it assassinated 14 Iranian soldiers. On the following day,
Iran executed 16 Baluchi activists in the prison at Zahedan. In February of
2014, the group kidnapped four border guards whom it took to Pakistan,
where they were later freed.
In May of 2013 elections were held which represented a significant chan-

ge. In the general elections the broad winner was the PML-N, which obtai-
ned 176 seats of the 342; in second place, far back, the PPP with 39 seats.
Following them were 17 other parties, among which were three Baluchis-
tan Nationalist groups, with one representative each: the ANP, the BNP
and the NP.
In the provincial elections the PLM-N also won, with 22 of the 65 seats
which make up the Provincial Assembly (for the national parliament it
only obtained 6 of the 17 available). It was therefore far from holding
a majority. The Pashtun party PKMAP obtained 14 (4 for the national).
Among the nationalist groups the NP obtained 10 (for the national, only
one), the BNP, 2 (for the national, one), the ANP one (none for the national),
and the BNP-Awami also one. Three further groups as well as one inde-
pendent won a presence. This is, as may be seen, a quite complicated as-
sembly and of a very different composition from the national parliament.
The difference may also be compared between voting in Baluchistan for
the national and the provincial assemblies.
The complex and contentious history of Pakistan29, with successive and
alternating periods of democratic governments resulting from elections
and of military governments, makes the situation difficult in Pakistani Ba-
luchistan30 as well as in the Iranian part, with harsh and moderate gover-
nments alternating with each other. In the current situation in Pakistan,
there is a democratic government, the result of the May 2013 elections,
of Iranian Nationals Unlikely to Jeopardise Relations with Pakistan Given Low Threat
Posed to Iran.» Jane’s Intelligence Weekly, April 4 2014.
29
RASHID, Ahmed: Pakistan on the Edge of the Abyss. The future of the U.S., Pakistan
and Afghanistan. Barcelona, Peninsula, 2013.
30
ALAMGIR, Aurangzaib: Pakistan’s Balochistan Problem. World Affairs, Nov.-Dec.
2012, pp 33-38.
257
and in Iran a more moderate government holds power (the Presidential

elections of 2013 gave 50.88% of the votes cast to the moderate Hassan
Rouhani, while in the previous elections in 2009, the radical Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad had obtained 62.63%). In the parliamentary elections of
2012 the different conservative candidacies had obtained 59.7% of the
votes cast and 182 seats, the moderate reformist sector obtained 36.5%
with 75 seats and another 14 were divided among religious minorities
(Armenians, Syrians and Chaldeans, Jews and Zoroastrians) who obtai-
ned 12.1 %, the remaining 19 having gone to independent candidates.
Nonetheless, no negotiated settlements are in sight as a way out of the con-
flict. Assaults continue in both zones and in the Pakistani areas, there has
actually been an increase in the activities of Taliban and jihadist groups.
The heavy repression applied by both the Pakistani31 and the Iranian32
governments have given rise in recent years to reports on both of the-
se governments by Amnesty International. Human Rights Watch,33 for its
part, states that hundreds of Baluchis have vanished whose bodies for
the most part have not appeared.
Role of external actors
China
The Indian Ocean plays a central role in Chinese energy strategy. Her hea-
vy dependence on imports of both oil and gas has determined the need
for a strategy to guarantee the security of supply, especially from the Mi-
ddle East and from Africa. And so the creation has taken place of what
has been defined as the «Collar of Pearls»34 which would protect the su-
pply lines from those two areas passing through the Straits of Malacca to
their arrival on the Chinese coasts. Each one of the pearls is an enclave,
civil or military, set along this route to protect it, serving as infrastructure
or as a base where military units may be permanently or temporarily
established. And the coast of Baluchistan would play a central role in the
Indian Ocean.
31
AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL: Pakistan Investigates Murder and Torture of Baloch
Activities. 16 October 2010; and Pakistan: Balochistan Atrocities Continue to Rise. 23
February 2011.
32
INTERNATIONAL AMNISTY: Iran Human Rights. Abuses against Baluchi Minority.
September 2007.
33
HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH: Pakistan Disastrous Year for Rights. Militant Attacks, Judi-
cial Misconduct Mark the Year. 24 January 2011.
34
BAREA MESTANZA, Alfonso: The Chinese Collar of Pearls Strategy. In Revista Ejer-
cito, number 877, May 2014.
PEHRSON, Christopher J.: String of Pearls. Meeting the Challenge of China’s Rising
Power across the Asian Littoral. SSI. July 2006.
258
These «pearls» would be, leaving from China: in the South China Sea,
the air and naval bases of the island of Hainan, as well as the air base
on Woody Island; in Cambodia, the enlarged ports of Sihanoukville and
of Ream; in Thailand, the project is for a new channel in the Kra Isthmus,
in order to avoid passing through Malacca; in Myanmar, construction of
a port at Sittwe, from which there would depart a strategic corridor to
China, through which would pass an oil pipeline, a railroad line and a hi-
ghway; in Bangladesh, the enlargement of military and civilian facilities
at the port of Chittagong; in Sri Lanka, the port of Hambantota; in Pakistan
the ports and naval facilities at Gwadar and Pasni; in Iraq, the petroleum
facilities at Al-Ahdab; and on the African coast, connections via pipelines
from the oil fields in South Sudan to the coast. The role of the port of
Gwadar, 240 miles from the Straits of Ormuz, and of Pasni, joined by a
recently built highway, would play a double role: as a maritime enclave
and also as the departure point for a highway to connect with the Chine-
se province of Xiangjiang as well as for a proposed pipeline. And so for
China, good relations with Pakistan are strategic, as also is stability in the
Indian Ocean, which depends as well on the situation with regard to rela-
tions with Pakistan and India (relations which also affect the stability of
Afghanistan and Central Asia, though which must pass the oil and gas pi-
pelines which transport the petroleum and natural gas originating in the
Caucasus and the Caspian Sea), and a Baluchistan at peace and exempt
from terrorist-group activities.
The United States
North American policy for the area of the Indian Ocean has evolved since
the end of the Second World War. For some time the area held little geos-
trategic importance, America going so far as to dissolve the Fifth Fleet, res-
ponsible for this ocean; her interest centered during the Cold War on avoi-
ding the creation of an outlet into this ocean for the USSR and its projection
into Africa. Later, with the breakup of the Soviet Union, North American
interests in the Middle East (energy supply as well as the defense of Israel)
and especially the anti-American policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran,
the attitude of the Iraqi government of Saddam Hussein, and the extension
of the jihadist terrorism of Al-Qaeda and its establishment in Afghanistan,
all stimulated a new interest in the area, especially after the attacks on
September 11 which culminated in the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan
and the tension with Iran because of its nuclear program. The Indian Ocean
again became an area of growing American military presence.35
35
The North American Fifth Fleet, responsible for the Indian Ocean, was created April
26 of 1944, but at the end of World War II it was deactivated. After the experience of
the first Gulf War in 1991, when it was necessary to use units from the Pacific Seventh
Fleet, in July of 1995 it was reactivated.
259
However, the relative crisis in her power, the ascent of China and her
more assertive policies, the beginnings of agreement on the Iranian nu-
clear program and the road towards a growing energy autonomy with the
exploitation of non-conventional sources of gas and petroleum within her
own territory, all have shifted the center of gravity of her interests first
from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean and at this time towards the Pacific
especially with respect to China.
In the Indian Ocean there has been a rapprochement with India and a
distancing from Pakistan. There does not seem to exist a concrete policy
regarding the situation in Baluchistan although there has been a refusal
to incorporate Baluchi groups into the lists of terrorist gangs as was re-
quested by Pakistan. Some concern may be felt with the Chinese exten-
sion of the «collar of pearls» and with respect to her base on the island
of Diego Garcia.
Nonetheless a small group of North American congressmen (Dana Rohr-
bacher, Louie Gohmert and Steve King), supported by Baluchi and Afghan
nationalist groups in Washington, in 2012 drew up proposals for chan-
ging North American strategy in the area, especially respecting Pakistan.
Among them figured the recognition of the Baluchi nation and its right to
be considered a new State.36
Although the proposals did not move forward, they may be an example of
geo-strategic indecision with regard to the area.
India
The Indian Ocean has as its axis the Indian subcontinent, occupied prin-
cipally by India. This nation considers the Indian Ocean to be a sphere of
its own control and influence. In spite of this, for a long period it has not
been equipped with a maritime strategy to guarantee this control, since
its geostrategic outlook is concentrated on its confrontation with Pakis-
tan over the control of Kashmir, and secondarily on the Chinese border.
However, the war of Afghanistan and the growing Chinese presence on
the sea have produced changes in its geopolitical thought and in its mili-
tary strategies. Its priorities, without completely forgetting Kashmir, have
been directed towards developing a navy for the control of the Indian
Ocean and towards deepening its relationship with Afghanistan and with
Central Asian countries. Thus we see a tendency towards the reinforce-
ment of Pakistan’s relations with China (the port of Gwadar is the clearest
example), upon which India in addition to seeking closer relations with
the U.S. is also doing so with respect to Iran. And so the Jawajarlal Nehru
ALAMGIR, Aurangzaib: Pakistan’s Balochistan Problem, an Insurgency’s Rebirth.

36
Zurich, ISN 3 December 2012.
260
Port, located to the south of Bombay, and the principal Indian container
port, has arrived at agreements with Iran for its presence at the port of
Chabahar, in the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchistan, as a coun-
terweight to the Pakistani-Chinese port of Gwadar.37
At the same time this situation is generating a dynamic of corridors of
communication from the coast of the Arabian Sea into the interior of Eu-
rasia. Iran proposes a great corridor to unite the port of Chabahar with
St. Petersburg, and India is financing the construction of highways in
Afghanistan, for example between Delaram, located on the great Afghan
beltway, and the city of Zaranj, on the border with Iran, and which would
connect with an Iranian highway between Zaboj and Chabahar.
These tendencies may make yet more difficult the relations between Pakistan
and India, with their mutual accusations of each supporting terrorist move-
ments in the other’s country. Nonetheless, following the May elections in In-
dia38, which have meant a radical change with the victory of the Hindu Nationa-
list Party Bharatiya Janata (BJP) lead by Narendra Modi, the latter has received
the Pakistani Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, to discuss terrorism and the need
for coordination and for an attempt at normalization of their relationship.39
The European Union
In October of 2009 in answer to a question asked by the Euro deputy Ta-

deusz Cymanski about the opinion of the Council on the territory of Balu-
chistan and its possible right to self-determination in relation to Pakistan,
he was answered that «the question of the self-determination of the peo-
ple of Baluchistan has not been dealt with by the Council; as a consequen-
ce, it has no specific position on the question posed by Your Honor.»40
Since that time, the situation has not changed: the European Union has no
clear positions regarding the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean and the role
of the Union in that geographical area.41
Each member country has its own strategy, when these exist, generally
considering them included within their strategies for the Pacific.42
37
Trade Routes Between India and Iran. Stratford, March 6 2014.
38
«El Pais». Madrid 17 May 2014, pp. 2, 3.
39
«El Pais». Madrid 28 May 2014, p. 14.
40
Minutes of European Parliament Session for Oct. 22nd, 2009. Appendix on written
answers, response to question nº 18 from Tadeus Cymanski.
41
ROGERS, James: From Suez to Shanghai. The European Union and Eurasian Mariti-
me Security. Paris, EUISS Occasional Paper 77, 2009.
42
ROGERS, James: European (British and French) Geostrategy in the Indo-Pacific.
Journal of the Indian Ocean Region, vol. nº 1, June 2013 pp.68-69, and SAINT-MEZARD,
Isabelle: The French Strategic Vision of the Indian Ocean. In the same journal, pp. 53-
261
Only the question of the piracy of the maritime area off the coast of Somalia
has provoked the intervention of the Union, with the launching of the maritime
military operation Atalanta. But a global strategy has yet to be defined on this
Ocean and the problems of the Asiatic countries bordering the Indian Ocean.
The same may be said of Spain, absent from any political or economic
presence in this area.
Conclusions and perspective
A land of deserts and rugged mountains with some agricultural plains

along the Indo and a long coast on the Gulf of Aden at the center of the
energy trade routes from the Near to the Far East. Tribal peoples accus-
tomed to nomadism, to whom borders make no sense and facilitate smu-
ggling, undergoing a slow but progressive process of urbanization. Most
of the population is Baluchi but important minorities are to be found in
the Pashtuns (in Pakistan and Afghanistan) and Sistanis (in Iran) as well
as smaller groups of Hazari Shiites in the area of Quetta. Standing at the
crossroads of the Iranian plateau and Central Asia into the Indian sub-
continent, its history has been determined by this situation and with it,
subjected to the influence of or domination by the Persian, Central Asian
and northern Indian empires. This situation culminated in the division of
historic Baluchistan among Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Feelings of identification, reinforced by those of exploitation of their con-
siderable natural resources by outsider third parties, have been transfor-
med into nationalist movements which at times become guerrilla insur-
gencies or terrorist acts, but which do not turn into majorities in election
results. This is present-day Baluchistan.
It is a case of a conflict, or rather a series of interrelated conflicts, which
in part may be characterized as frozen and somewhat forgotten. It is a
long-lasting, low-intensity conflict, except at certain times when it ac-
quires the features of a very violent confrontation; this fact contributes
to its lesser presence in the media compared with other conflicts. No-
netheless, its importance lies in Baluchistan’s geopolitical situation, as
has been seen. The coincidence of divergent and sometimes opposing
interests in an area such as that which stands between Central Asia and
the Indian Ocean may impact on its future development, or even, under
certain circumstances, provide the spark leading to a more extended and
high-intensity conflict.
Thus there is a strong temptation on the part of both regional and out-
side actors to support some of these movements in order to destabilize
68. This issue is dedicated to «Power, Politics and Maritime Governance in the Indian
Ocean.»
262
others. The evolution of wider scenarios, either political-military or eco-

nomic-energy based, will condition the interest of each actor in the area’s
enjoyment of stability or in the imposition of instability.
Frequent accusations are made by the Iranian government of the aid
received by terrorist groups from the U.S., Saudi Arabia, or from Pakis-
tani groups; for its part, the government of Pakistan launches frequent
charges aimed at India, Afghanistan and even the U.S. Regardless of how
much truth there is to any or all of these, they are an example of the com-
plexity of relations and interests in the region. There should also be kept
in mind the continuing evolution of the confrontation between Sunnis and
Shies, and the impact this may have, especially on the border between
Iran and Pakistan.
The increase taking place, and tending to rise, of the infrastructures of
communication and transport (by rail or by road) as well as energy con-
nections may aid in producing stabilizing interests of greater weight than
those for destabilization; at the same time, if this results in a greater de-
velopment of the area and an improvement in the standard of living of its
inhabitants, social development and a growing middle class may reinfor-
ce the stabilizing tendencies. Competent regional policies on the part of
the governments would intensify this tendency, while policies of non-in-
tegration would work to the opposite effect. It has been seen how the fea-
tures of the conflict present differing situations in Pakistan or in Iran. In
this latter country, the separatist movement is less intense, has a charac-
ter more closely linked to the general political situation of the nation, and
the type of confrontation is basically one of terrorist and counter-terrorist
activities. In the former nation, the nationalist and separatist features are
more marked, taking on guerrilla features with times of harsh battle with
the Pakistani army; it is a longer-lasting conflict and its outlook holds no
prospects for an immediate solution. The position of the Pakistani gover-
nments has been more unbudging, surely due to the role played by the
Army and the ISI in the country’s policies, many times even controlling the
government or acting outside it. In the case of Iran on the other hand the
existence of more or less radical or moderate governments has meant
harsher or more conciliatory policies. The existence of a moderate gover-
nment in Teheran could create an atmosphere of possible understanding,
a greater pacification of the problem and a greater control of terrorism.
In the case of Pakistan, it must be kept in mind that the existence of jiha-
dist terrorism and of nationalist insurgency movements produces a grea-
ter complexity. And there exists the danger that at some point alliances
may take place between these two movements.
Progressive social and economic development as well as the moder-
nization of the area should help to overcome tribal tendencies towards
disintegration and instead encourage integrationist and conciliatory mo-
263
vements, which if corresponding to government policies also of an inte-

grationist character, may allow the creation of conditions of greater social
cohesion, facilitating dialogue and the subduing of confrontations.
IMAGEN 2
264
Bibliography
ACHTAR, Asren: Baluchistan National Movement and Unrest in Pakistan.
South Asian Survey, vol 18.1, pp121-135. March 2011.
AHMAD, Syed Iqhal: Balochistan: Its Strategic Importance. Karachi, Royal
Book Co. 1992.
ALMAMQER, Aurangzaib: Pakistan’s Balochistan Problem: An Insurgency
Rebirth. World Affairs, November-December of 2012 pp33-38.
AKBAR, Maalik Siraj: The Redefined Dimensions of Baloch Nationalist Move-
ment. Xlibris Corporation, 2011.
AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL. Iran Human Rights abuses against Baluchi Mi-
nority. September 2007.
ANDLEY, Priyashree: Balochistan: A Backgrounder. New Delhi, Institute of
Peace and Conflict Studies.
BALOCH, I.: The Problem of «Greater Baluchistan»: a Study of Baluch Nation-
alism. Weidbaden, Steiner Verlag, 1987.
BANSAL, Allak: Balochistan in Turmoil, Pakistan at Crossroads.New Delhi,
Manas Publications and Institute or Defence Studies and Analysis.
BRESEEG, Taj Mohammad: Maloch Nationalism: its origin and development.
Karachi, Royal Book Co. 2004.
CHANDIV, Amir Ali: Maloch National Movement 2003-2012: An Analysis. In-
terdisciplinary Journal of Contemporary Research in Business, vol. 4
no. 10. February 2013.
CHRISTENSEN, Jane Bjerre: Strained Alliances. Iran’sTroubled Relations to
Afghanistan and Pakistan. Danish Institute for International Studies
2011.
CORDESMAN, Anthony H. And TOUKAN, Abdullah: The Indian Ocean Re-
gion. A Strategic Net Assessment. Washington, Center for Strategic
and International Studies 2011.
ESCOBAR, Pepe: The Shadow War in Balochistan. Asia Times, 6 June 2009.
GARE, Frederick: The Resurgence of Baluch Nationalism. New York, Carne-
gie Endowment for International Peace 2006.
GRARE, Frèderic: Baloutchistan: Fin de Partie?. Herodote no. 139 pp 99-
122, 2010.
HAMEED, Sakida and HOLTERMAN, Julie: Regional Dynamics and Strategic
Concerns in South Asia. Pakistan’s Role. Washington, Center for Stra-
tegic and International Studies, January 2014.
HARRISON, Selig: Baluch Nationalism and Superpower Rivalry. Interna-
tional Security vol. 5, 3 1981.
265
HARRISON, Selig: In Afghanistan’s Shadow: Baluch Nationalism and Soviet

Temptations. New York, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
1981.
HARRISON, Selig: Pakistan’s Baloch Insurgency. Paris, Le Monde Diploma-
tique, October 2006.
HASSAN, Minjah ul: Pakistan-Iran Relations in Historical Perspective. Uni-
versity of Peshawar 2004.
HOURCADE, Bernard: Geopolitique de l’Iran. Paris, Armand Colin 2012.
IISS: Bad Times in Baluchistan. IISS Strategic Comments, vol 17, 46, De-
cember 2011.
JAVALD, Umbreen: Concerns of Balochistan: Effects and Implications on
Federation of Pakistan. Lahore, Journal of Political Studies, vol 1 issue
2 pp 113-125, 2011.
KAPLAN, Robert D: Monzón. Un viaje por el futuro del Océano Índico. (A Voy-
age through the Future of the Indian Ocean) Madrid, El Hombre del Tres
2012 (The Man of Three, 2012).
KAPLAN, Robert: La venganza de la geografía.(The Vengeance of Geogra-
phy) Barcelona, RBA 2013.
KOLDSTAD WIIG, Audun: Islamist Oposition in the Islamic Republic. Jundul-
lah. Oslo, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment 2009.
KUPECZ, Mickey: Pakistan’s Baloch Insurgency: History, Conflict Drivers and
Regional Implications. International Affairs Review, vol XX nº 3 pp 95-
110. Spring 2012.
PIPS: Balochistan: Conflicts and Players. Islamabad, Pak Institute for
Peace Studies 2009.
QUDDUS, Syed Abdul: Tribal Baluchistan. Lahore, Ferozsons 1990.
RASHID, Ahmed: Pakistán ante el abismo. El futuro de EE.UU., Pakistán y
Afganistán. (Pakistan on the Edge of the Abyss. The future of the U.S.,
Pakistan, and Afghanistan.) Barcelona, Peninsula 2013.
RIAZ, Ahmad: Balochistan through History. National Institute of Pakistan
Studies, 2008.
ROGERS, James: From Suez to Shanghai. The European Union and Eurasian
Maritime Security. Paris, EUISS Occasional Paper 77, 2009.
SETAS VILCHEZ, Carlos: Los conflictos de Baluchistán. (The Conflicts of Bal-
uchistan). Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies) 2012.
http://www. ieee. es/Galerias/fichero/docs_marco/2012/DIEEEM18-12_
ConflictosBalochistan_CarlosSetas. pdf.
SHAH, Mahmood Ali: Essays on Balochistan: Society, Polity and Tribal Ad-
ministration. Lahore, Classic 2008.
SCHOLZ, Fred: Nomadism and Colonialism: a Hundred Years of Baluchistan
1872-1972. Oxford University Press 2002.
266
VVAA: Geopolitique de l’océan Indien. (Geopolitics in the Indian Ocean) Paris,
Herodote nº 145, Second quarter 2012.
WHITE, Nicole: China-Pakistán Energy Corridor. Roadsblocks and Security
Implications. Washington, Center for Strategic and International Stud-
ies, New perspectives in Foreign Policy, 2013 issue 5 pp14-17.
WIRSING, Robert G: Baloch Nationalism and the Geopolitics of Energy Re-
sources: the Changing Context of Separatism in Pakistan. Strategic
Studies Institute, April 2008.
Existing Data Bases permitting monitoring of the conflicts:
COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS: Conflict Prevention Resources.
ESCOLA DE CULTURA DE PAU (Universidad Autónoma de Catalunya): (Pau
School of Culture, Autonomous University of Cataluña) Observatorio
de Conflictos y Construcción de Paz.(Observatory of Conflicts and the
Construction of Peace) (It has also published an Annual Report on
Peace Processes, directed by Visen Fisas, since 2006).
INSTITUTE OF PEACE AND CONFLICT STUDIES: Armed Conflicts in South
Asia (Published since 2008).
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP: Crisis Watch (Published monthly).
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES: Armed Conflicts
Database.
UPPSALA UNIVERSITY: UCDP Conflict Encyclopedia.
KOREA INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSIS: World War Watch.
WORLD WIDE CONFLICTS is a blog at www. wordpress.com.
For the monitoring of assaults and terrorist groups:
«COMBATING TERRORISM» CENTER at West Point: CTC Sentinel (pub-
lished monthly).
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR COUNTERTERRORISM: Terrorism Data-
base Reports.
The JAMESTOWN FOUNDATION: Terrorism Monitor (published bimonthly).
SOUTH ASIA TERRORISM PORTAL: www. satp.org.
Think Tanks on the region with monitoring of these conflicts:
In Pakistan:
PAK INSTITUTE FOR PEACE STUDIES: especially publishes periodically
«Balochistan Watch».
In India:
INSTITUTE FOR DEFENCE STUDIES AND ANALYSIS: Especially, since July
of 2013 it has published «Pakistan News Digest» with a specific sec-
tion on Baluchistan.
INSTITUTE OF PEACE AND CONFLICT STUDIES.
Some websites and blogs about Baluchistan:
www.crisisbaluchistan.com
www.hamariweb.com
www.radiobalochi. org
www.thebaluch.com (contains links to a number of similar blogs).
www.topnews. in/regions/balochistan
Consultation in English is also possible at the official government web-
sites of Pakistan, of the provincial government of Baluchistan, of the
Port of Gwadar, and of the district and city of Quetta
268
Analysis of the conflict in the central american Chapter
corridor: network geopolitics ten
Emilio Sánchez de Rojas Díaz
Summary
We find problems with deep historical roots, to which proven solutions

are applied, along with «wicked» problems for which we have no reci-
pes. The information available generally refers to the weaknesses rela-
ted to trafficking, and studies which identify the cohesion forces – the
strengths – in the Central American countries, which are far from being
failed states. The challenge that all countries face with indigenous peo-
ples consists in changing its conception of nation structured in terms of
homogenous and mono-ethnic «citizenship» to a plural conception that
gives rise to richness and to the diversity of cultures and the people that
make them up. Central America acknowledges its multiculturality, there
is a qualitative change with respect to the assimilationist tendency and
of acculturation
Key Words
Central America, «intermestic» threats, geopolitical networked balloon

effect, «wicked problems», traffic, cocaine, inter-oceanic corridors
269
Analysis of the conflict in the central american...
Introduction
If we had to choose a word to define the world situation during the first
part of the 21st century, without a doubt it would be uncertainty.1 As Fa-
reed Zakaria reminds us, we are going through the third great change in
modern times, the rise of others:
An aspect of this new era is the transfer of power from the states to
other players; among the «others» that are rising are many non-state
players. Power is abandoning the state-nations in order to go upward,
downward and to the sides (2009, pages 13-15).
Currently, the limits between national and international security are hard
to define, with the concept of threat, characterized by the absence of
threat in the borders and the absence of borders for the threat, making its
appearance. (Howard, 1987). The paradox is that «new threats», such as
the insecurity of citizens, terrorism, cyber-insecurity, nuclear prolifera-
tion, drug trafficking, maritime piracy, illegal immigration, environmental
pollution and climate change, the loss of national identity, that threaten
peace and stability in the world today have long existed, and they turn into
threats when they are boosted by Globalization (Kouliansky, 2010).
It is difficult to maintain an absolute definition of security, as Gérard Dus-
soy declares (2001), unless it is at the expense of simplifying the reality of
an international context where threats do not come from just one place or
one specific source, but rather are diffuse. As opposed to the traditional
concept of security, there are alternative formulations, such as common,
comprehensive, cooperative, global, etc. security, that questioned the pre-
vailing approach (Pérez de Armiñon, 2007), and eased the appearance of
new security concepts such as «societal security» and «human security»
which illustrate the change from the supremacy of national (and interna-
tional) security towards transnational, sub-national and individual secu-
rity (Hänggi, 2003, pages 5-6).
Problems no longer have obvious solutions. The term «wicked problems»
refers to problems that cannot be described in a simple and stable man-
ner. They do not belong to the type of problems that, when dealt with in
the same way, give similar solutions. In short, «wicked problems» are
disorganized, on the wrong track, and reactive. Thus, the lack of unders-
tanding of the strategic implications of a given solution produces worse
situations than those which were intended to be improved at the outset
(Watts, 2012, pages 53-4). This is the case of the law of unforeseen con-
sequences that has affected Libya, Syria or Mali, and that affect the «ba-
lloon» effect in the fight against drug trafficking, particularly of cocaine.
Strategic uncertainty could indicate lack of global leadership.

1
271
Emilio Sánchez de Rojas Díez
Today, we are witnessing the proliferation of «wicked problems», and

unforeseen consequences, which seem to indicate a certain decline of
the world leadership of the United States. Besides not imposing, in a he-
gemonic manner, its desires, the United States is losing its influencing
capacity, in other words, what has become known as smart power. The
United States has lost some of its hard power with its pivotal strategy
towards the Pacific Ocean, and no longer has its soft power due to its use
of double standards.
Every problem needs different solutions from others, and a solution to a
problem is not valid indefinitely. The lesson we are learning from conflicts
such as those in Iraq, Libya, Syria, or Mali is that an immediate success
does not in any way mean the end of the «wicked» strategic problems
which represent changing and evolutionary challenges. Since the end of
the Cold War, we no longer have available a set of metrics, indicators, or
operational techniques available that may be applied to all the strategic
problems or that are still valid for a specific individual problem during its
whole life cycle (Watts, 2012, page 53).
Geopolitics of the conflicts in Central America
In Central America, we can find deeply rooted historical roots, to which bac-
ked solutions may be applied, together with emerging «wicked» problems
for which we have no recipes. When analyzing the conflicts in Central Ame-
rica, it must be done both from a classical point of view of countries and
borders, still relevant, and from a point of view of human security and criti-
cal geopolitics, where places, nodes, transnational bonds or flows, substi-
tute the classical ones. In other words, geopolitics on the network, on top of
a classical one. Let us start with the most classical aspect.
Geography
The inspection of Central America shows two contradictory geopolitical dy-

namics: Central America is a connecting isthmus between North and South
America; and that is the road of south-north (drugs and human beings), and
north-south (arms or power) trafficking. However, the national and histo-
rical dynamics turn the Central American countries into connectors - less
resistance roads - between the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans, whether
by sea - the Panama Canal - or by land, through the new transoceanic co-
rridors that are under construction in Nicaragua, Honduras or Guatemala.
The information that we most often find refers to the weaknesses related
to trafficking, mainly as a consequence of the balloon effect caused by
North American policies to eradicate trafficking, first in the Lesser Anti-
lles, and later in the locations of origin and transit to their own countries
272
- the Colombia and Merida plans - but without eliminating the real cause
of the problem: consumption. Trafficking, of drugs and human beings in-
cluded, are augmented because of its demand.
It is not common to find studies that identify the cohesion forces – the
strengths – of Central American countries which, in spite of their difficul-
ties, are far from being failed states. The geostrategic readjustment of
the United States, displayed in its pivot towards the Pacific Ocean - stra-
tegic withdrawal from other scenarios – leads to the appearance of other
geopolitical – geoeconomic players that could project their power – soft
power for now – onto the area abandoned by the decadent hegemony.
The long and conflicting process of the creation of national States in La-
tin America left a balance of numerous disputed areas, where different
countries claimed to exercise their sovereign rights over the same strips
of territory. Some of these disputes have lasted to our days. Neither the
Spanish colonial administration, nor the Portuguese one, established
exact delimitations of their territorial possessions. These ambiguities
were inherited by the republics which rose from the independence pro-
cess without substantial modifications.
The race for a new inter-oceanic route
One of the strengths of most of the Central American countries (with the
exception of El Salvador and Belice) is that they are bathed by the waters
of the two oceans. A new race to obtain a new inter-oceanic route to com-
273
pete with the Panama Canal, presently under being widened, has begun.
Guatemala and Honduras’ plans have come together with those of Nica-
ragua. Their governments have announced projects to transport goods
by land from one ocean to the other. What has attracted the attention of
international analysts is the growing presence of Chinese companies in
that region. China has strategic interests to have alternative options to
transport the raw materials that their companies need. (Salinas, Sando-
val & Murillo, 2013).
The Guatemalan inter-oceanic corridor is a private project supported by

the government, which intends to join the Pacific with the Atlantic Ocean
through a «dry canal». The project includes the construction of two ports,
and it will include a 372-kilometer road, a railroad line, and five oil pipe-
lines, plus the installation of industrial zones along the 372 kilometers.
The Government of Honduras has also joined the race to achieve an «in-
ter-oceanic canal». A Chinese enterprise is interested in building a set of
10 railroad lines that would connect the Caribbean with the Pacific Ocean
in Honduras. The plan includes the construction of deep sea water ports
in the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Fonseca, Honduras’ exit to the Pacific
Ocean. However, the Gulf of Fonseca is like a hornet’s nest that often rai-
ses tensions among Tegucigalpa, Managua, and San Salvador, the capi-
tals of countries which share this exit to the ocean. (Salinas, Sandoval, &
Murillo.
Ethnic and cultural diversity
Five centuries after the conquest, there are still features of the pre-Hispanic
past. The Mesoamerican languages and cultures spread from Yucatan and
274
Chiapas (Mexico) to the small indigenous site of Matambú in the Peninsula

of Nicoya (Costa Rica). Its presence is massive in the highlands and in the
lowlands on the Peten in Guatemala, and they disperse as one descends
towards Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. The indigenous peoples from
the southeast live in the lowlands of the Caribbean slope of Central America,
in the Talamanca mountains (Costa Rica), and in various enclaves in central
Honduras; the Lenca culture, located in the mountains in western Honduras,
and in the east of El Salvador, in an area which may be considered a transi-
tion area between Mesoamerican indigenous cultures and those from the
southeast of Central America. The Garifuna people live on the coast of Beli-
ze and Honduras, and in Laguna de Perlas in the Nicaraguan Mosquitia. The
Afro-Caribbeans, who speak Creole English, are along the Caribbean coast of
Central America, including the small islands near the coastline, in the center
and southeast of the Isthmus of Panama. (PNUD, 2003, page 338).
The tendency to reject the old model of national mono-ethnic and homo-
geneous State, and the change towards a new multinational o multi-eth-
nic State model is a global phenomenon (PNUD, Human Development in
the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua, 2002). Will Kymlicka believes there are
three reasons for this: One is that the search for homogenization has tur-
ned out to be a failure. Second, it has been clearly shown that it is not
necessary to exclude or assimilate the marginalized peoples or nations
in order to be a successful country. The third reason for the change is the
growing acknowledgement that the current model is unjust. (PNUD, Hu-
man Development in the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua, 2002).
The challenge that all of the countries with indigenous peoples face is to
transform its conception of a nation formed in terms of a homogenous
and mono-ethnic «citizenry», into a plural conception that generates the
richness and diversity of the cultures and peoples that comprise them. It
means the recognition of the collective and specific rights of the indige-
nous people enshrined in ILO Convention 169 and in the draft of the Uni-
ted Nations Universal Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, in
addition to the effective exercise of their individual rights. It represents a
thorough transformation of the structure and the institutions of the State,
in order to guarantee the expansion of indigenous and ethnic representa-
tion, and to carry out modifications in key areas such as territorial recog-
nition, bilingual and intercultural education, formalization of indigenous
languages, plurality of the judicial system, the recognition and respect to
the indigenous cultures and their spirituality. (KajiÉ & OCAA, 2001).
Central America recognizes itself in its multiculture, which is a new
strength. The assessment shows that there is a qualitative change re-
garding the assimilationist tendency and that of acculturation2. In the
2
Pointed out half a century ago by Richard Adams in his pioneer works regarding this
subject.
275
last two decades of the 20th century and at the beginning of the 21st
century, some groups among the population, particularly the indigenous
and Afro-descendants, have turned into social and political players that
vindicate for themselves the right to self-classification, calling them-
selves «peoples», nations or ethnic communities with economic, social,
cultural, and political rights unprecedented twenty or thirty years ago
(PNUD, 2003, page 333).
History
After its initial annexation to Iturbide’s Mexican Empire, Central America

became independent and created the United Provinces of Central Ame-
rica in 1823. Following the civil war between 1838 and 1840 they frag-
ment themselves, dissolving the political union. The long and conflicting
process to form the national States in America gave rise to numerous
disputed areas claimed by different countries. Some of these disputes
still exist today. The instability in that period of «anarchy», and the forms
of military caudillo regimes that were characteristic of that period, were
the manifestation of the struggle for the appropriation of the land and the
natural riches in the continent. The core of the rising criollo burgeoisie, in
alliance with foreign capital, consecrated legally and by force the private
property system, and launched expansionist policies against the neigh-
boring countries. (Bacheta, 1984, pages 73-4)
While the consolidation of the national States at the end of the 19th cen-
tury gives rise to a period of stability in South America, without definitely
eliminating the border and territorial disputes, in Central America and the
Caribbean islands, the weakness of the small States that resulted from
the division of the region, favored the direct intervention of the United
States: imposition on Panama of the colonial treaty in the Canal Zone af-
ter its independence from Colombia (1903-14), the war between Hondu-
ras and Nicaragua (1907), and the war between Panama and Costa Rica
(1921). (Bacchetta, 1984, page 74).
The failure of the long negotiation processes among the parties, the re-
jection to arbitration decisions taken by the tribunals or entities appoin-
ted for such a purpose, the expiration or denuntiation of old treaties, the
rupture of diplomatic relations, the growing political tensions, and the
armed border conflicts, are the ingredients characteristic, in a greater
or lesser degree, of the re-emergence of a series of historical territorial
disputes in Latin America, since the middle of the decade of the 70s. (Bac-
chetta, 1984, page 84).
276
The local General Staffs prioritize «blitzkriegs». In the opinion of Peruvian

General Mercado Jarrin3, referring to a «local limited war» in the continent: it
would not be necessary to have the supremacy, a relative and circumstantial
superiority in the appropriate place and time would be enough. Adding,
Through diplomatic efforts politics should obtain and maintain before,
during and after a conflict, the support from the great powers, particu-
larly from one of them, to neutralize the others should they intend to
intervene in favor of the enemy o try to stop the conflict before it has
favored the achievement of their own goals. (Bacchetta, 1984, page 85).
Disputes over territorial limits
The establishment of territorial limits represents a key element for the

creation of the nation-state. Central America has disputes that go from
demarcations to territorial occupations. Although, historically, the majori-
ty of the disputes have been settled through arbitration or bilateral nego-
tiations, and these conflicts are usually not violent, they have a significant
impact on the stability of the region due to their duration. Multilateral in-
tervention only happens when there is a military confrontation (or threat
of one), when the multilateral preventive mechanisms are activated such
as early alert systems. (Orozco, 2001, page 105)
in an article published in April, 1974.

3
277
Historical Central American disputes
The disputes in Central America are largely linked to colonial administra-

tion. One of the most significant legacies in colonial Central America were
the territorial divisions drawn by the «Ordinances of the Intendancies» of
1785. (Orozco, 2001, page 108).
Mercado Jarrín (Jarrin, 1988, page 93) thinks that there are three
types of interstate conflicts in Latin America: territorial (border), po-
litical, and anti- hegemonic. For Jarrin, the territorial conflicts still
have international and Latin American relevance. Pfetsch and Rohlo-
ff’s study about international conflicts shows that interstate border
conflicts represent one third of all conflicts. It also shows that they
tend to be longer and latent than any other type of dispute (Pfetsch
and Rohloff, 2000).
(Orozco, 2001, page. 107)
278

Currently, there are four active bordering disputes in the region: between
Guatemala and Belize, Honduras and Nicaragua, Nicaragua and Costa
Rica, and among Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador over the Gulf of
Fonseca. There is also a possible fifth dispute between Honduras and
Guatemala, which emanates from the ratification of the López-Ramírez
Treaty. A common element to the current conflicts in Central America is
the legacy of unsolved treaties. Furthermore, the current conflicts in Cen-
tral America are progressively more linked to reserves of natural resour-
ces.4 These disputes are generally prolonged, but they show low levels of
conflict. (Orozco, 2001, page 112).
The conflict between Honduras and Nicaragua, and possibly Guatemala,
over the maritime limits of Honduras is directly related to the fishing re-
sources in the Caribbean and to supposed oil fields. Honduras had alre-
ady signed contracts with oil companies to drill the area currently under
dispute. This conflict has also encouraged Costa Rica to negotiate mariti-
me borders with Caribbean countries and with Colombia, thus increasing
the potential for conflict. (Orozco, 2001, page 112).
Past and present disputes: some of its characteristics
Two important issues differentiate past disputes from current ones.

1. The duration. In the cases where a past dispute has been resolved,
its duration exceeded thirty years.
2. Four of the most important disputes over the establishment of
limits, resolved before 1980 (Guatemala-Honduras, El Salva-
dor-Honduras, Nicaragua-Honduras, Costa Rica-Panama) shared
three characteristics:
a) They escalated to military disputes,
b) Its controversy was related to the inability of the countries to
establish their demarcations, and
c) They were finally settled through arbitration and involvement of
a third party. (Orozco, 2001, page 120).
Contemporary disputes show important distinctive features that are
linked to a changing dynamic of demands.
• Except for the case of the territorial dispute between Belize and
Guatemala, the current conflicts in Central America are linked to
reserves of natural resources.
• A key issue for the continuation of border problems is that, in spite
of the de facto agreements over new borders, the Central American
Except the territorial dispute between Belize and Guatemala.

4
279
states have little capacity to delineate those borders or to maintain

its jurisdiction.
The countries have used four mechanisms to solve the disputes: bilateral
negotiations, arbitration, judicial rulings, and intestate violence. None of
these methods have been totally effective.
Map of the conflicts in Central America
A map about the security and the conflicts in Central America should in-
clude factors which affect the internal cohesion of the different countries
such as border disputes. Borders are an identity factor in spite of the
diversity, and they define the area of application of internal policies, and
are decisive for security.
On the other hand, although the measures to improve the governance
should be planned within a regional framework, they are applied at a na-
tional and sub-national level. The border conflicts have often been used
as an internal cohesion factor: reinforcing «we» against «you». In 2014,
there still are territorial border conflicts:
1. Border conflict Guatemala – Belize: Guatemala claims 2,700 Km2
of Belize’s territory. In December of 2008, these nations decided
to take their case before the International Court of Justice in the
Hague.
2. Border conflict Costa Rica – Nicaragua: The mouth of the San Juan
River delta is the epicenter of this territorial conflict. In 2010, Ni-
caragua began a dredging project in the waters of the San Juan
River, and Costa Rica accused Nicaragua before the Organization
of American States of misappropriation of Costa Rican territory,
and of causing ecological damage. In 2010, Costa Rica submitted
this case before the Hague.
3. Border conflict Honduras – Nicaragua: This conflict has focused
on parallel 15, maritime limit between these nations. Honduras
claims parallel 14°59’ 08’’ as sea limit.
4. Border conflict between Colombia and Nicaragua: In 2001, Nicara-
gua presented a lawsuit against Colombia before the International
Court of Justice in the Hague in order to determine the sea limit
between these two nations. Meridian 82º used to be the border,
but the ruling from the Hague, in November of 2012, decided to
move this point towards the east, and now the border is closer to
meridian 79º.
The ethnic and linguistic diversity is a centrifugal factor, particularly if the
communities have a feeling of exclusion. The ethnic factor is present in
all of Central America, and it sometimes has a transnational nature, and
280
if we add this to a weak governance, it may result in having areas out of

the government’s control.
Furthermore, the wide variety of superimposed geopolitical «agents» and
«structures» is related to the «places» at different dimensions, which go
from region to state, and even to group. It is a multi-player situation in
multi-structures at multi-level.
In Place and Politics (1987), John Agnew holds that for a space to turn
into a «place», three prerequisites must be fulfilled:
• A specific area that responds to the question: «Where?» In relation
to all the other places.
• A scenario. Real shape of the space, as defined by the walls of a
room or the parks and streets of a city, etc., but in general associa-
ted with daily activities (work, leisure, etc.).
• A feeling of place. The population has a personal and emotional
fixation with a specific place.
Citizen insecurity
There is not a single magic formula to solve the problem, but insecurity does
have a solution. (PNUD (c), 2013, page VI).
Human security is broad concept that considers a range of threats that
may endanger the life and well-being of the people: Environmental disas-
ters, wars, community conflicts, food insecurity, political violence, threats
to health, and crime. (PNUD (d), 1994, pages 27-28).
Citizen security becomes a much more restricted concept. Citizen secu-
rity may be understood as a specific modality of human security, related
to personal security and, more specifically, with threats to it such as cri-
me and violence. In Latin America, lethal violence is high in most of the
countries, and it has a tendency to increase at a comparatively higher rate
than in other regions in the world (UNDOC, 2011). The homicide rate for
11 out of the 18 countries analyzed is considered an epidemic level by the
World Health Organization (PNUD (c), 2013, pages 4-5).
South America and Central America are the world regions with the
highest homicide rates recorded – an average of over 25 victims per
1,000 inhabitants – followed by South America, Central Africa, and the
Caribbean, with rates between 16 and 23 victims per 100,000 inhabi-
tants. The fact that the homicide rates are significantly higher in the
Americas than in other regions is not a new phenomenon. According
to time series available since 1955, the Americas have suffered levels
of homicides five to ten times higher than those in Europe or Asia.
(UNODC (b), 2013).
281
As in the rates and trends of regional and sub-regional homicides, the

trends of the rates of national homicides can also hide differences at the
sub-national level, which are important from a political and preventive
perspective. For example, the so-called «hot spots» for homicides, which
boost increases o changes in the types of global aggregates of homicides,
could remain hidden in the global national rates of homicides. Therefore,
it is also important to study homicide at a local level. (UNODC (b), 2013,
page 25).
282
At a local level, the known factors that influence the levels of lethal violence
could have different ways to become apparent. The mentioned signs include
risk factors such as unemployment, poor quality of education, the presence
of juvenile gangs and organized crime, poverty and inequality, and the access
to firearms, but also the factors related to protection, which may be impro-
ved through prevention policies. These factors could lead to very different
results in terms of violence and crime, as they operate in different areas and
in different ways within a specific country. (UNODC (b), 2013, page 25).
Central America experienced a decrease in the rate of homicides between
1995 and 2004, followed by a sharp increase since 2007, often related to
drug trafficking and a high rate of violence related with organized crime,
resulting in one of the highest subregional homicide rates in the world (26.5
per 100,000 inhabitants). A large part of the high rate in this subregion can
be attributed to very high homicide rates in the «North Triangle» (El Sal-
vador, Guatemala, and Honduras). In terms of facing the growing levels of
violence in Central America, recent developments include the reduction of
the homicide rate in El Salvador by 40 percent since 2012, following a truce
by the gangs in this country. (UNODC (b), 2013, pages 33-34).
After the end of the truce, violence increased again in El Salvador. Douglas
Farah5 has been warning for over a year, that violence would intensify due
to the sophisticated organization and weaponry possessed by the gangs.
However, other voices, such as Linda Garred and Sarah Stephens6 are
more hopeful in the case of El Salvador: «Beginning the 1st of June, the
new Government of the Farbundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN)
will have a period of 5 years for El Salvador to have a transformation, and
turn from one of the most violent countries in the world into a pacific na-
tion that offers its youth more options besides emigration, or a very short
and brutal life of delinquency».
While some Central American countries have had a strong presence of organi-
zed delinquency groups and gangs for some years, the increase in the levels of
homicides in Central America in the last years is due greatly to violence related
to the control of the drug trafficking routes, to territorial wars among criminal
groups, and to conflicts among the mentioned criminal groups, territorial orga-
nizations, and the State. (UNODC (b), 2013, pages 43-44).
Drug trafficking and organized delinquency. Geopolitics in the

network
As recognized by the report on Central America, there was a decrease in

the rate of homicides, followed by a marked increase since 2007, often
from International Assessment and Strategy Center.

5
from Center for Democracy in the Americas.

6
283
related to drug trafficking and to the high levels of violence related to

organized crime, which has resulted in one of the highest sub-regional
homicide rates in the world. Adding these factors to our geopolitical map
of the conflicts seems essential.
In the last few years, the study of the organizations has stepped forward
with the analysis of social networks (ASN). This is an alternative method
to look at criminal organizations through the study of social relations wi-
thin a network. (Giménez-Salinas, 2011).
The theoretical explanations and the existing empirical results su-
ggest that networks (of any type, where the nodes are school stu-
dents, organic chemical products in the cells, or electrical network
cables) can be divided into two types: Exponential, and without scale.
(Albert, Jeong & Barabasi, 2000). The exponential networks (also ca-
lled Poisson networks) are structurally homogenous, and most of the
nodes have approximately the same number of links. The free-scale
networks, on the other hand, are heterogenous – most of the nodes
have proportionally few links, and a small number of the nodes (ca-
lled hubs) have a large number of links. (Bright, Greenill & Levenko-
va, 2011).
For Bruce Bagley, the eight key tendencies or patterns which are cha-
racteristic of the transformation that is taking place in drug trafficking,
and the organized criminal groups that it has produced beginning in the
middle of 2011 are the following:
1. The growing globalization of drug consumption,
284
2. Partial o limited victories, and the «unintended consequences» of

the «war against drugs» led by the United States, particularly in
the Andes,
3. The proliferation of the drug cultivation areas and of the routes for
drug trafficking in the entire hemisphere («balloon effect»),
4. The dispersion and fragmentation of the organized criminal
groups or networks inside the countries and through the sub-re-
gions («cucaracha effect»),
5. The failure of the political reform and of the efforts to build a State
(desinstitutionalization effects»),
6. Inadequacy or failures of the national drug policies, and control
of the delinquency by the United States (failures in the control of
the demand),
7. The inefficiency of the regional and international policies for drug
control (regulatory failures),
8. The increase of the support to the reduction of damages, the de-
criminalization, and the political alternatives for legalization (de-
bate about legalization). (Bagley, 2013, page. 99).
Drug trafficking towards the United States is driven by consumption.
This fact is key when defining the flows and the nodes. Essentially,
drug trafficking is an American problem and of the producing coun-
tries or the ones that are conduits. When an area of production is
reduced, by the action of a government or a program, the result is
the «balloon» effect, and production grows in other areas. When a
route is interrupted, another one is opened. However, any route must
be connected to the internal routes in the United States; therefore,
the entry points must be near the starting points of the mentioned
routes.
The consumption indicators, seizures and price allow determining indi-
rect indicators the flow of drugs in the United States of America.
285
Drug trafficking, between geo-politics and geo-economics
The transnational traffic of drugs implies the movement of illegal goods

through borders, in which – in most cases – the buyers and sellers wish
to cooperate, in order to achieve their respective objectives. For Naylor
(2003), drug trafficking consists of multilateral exchanges of intrinsica-
lly illegal goods among producers, distributors, and consumers within
a market context. From this definition, two elements are particularly
relevant:
286
• Drug trafficking represents a movement of illegal merchandise

from the source to the user. The chain between both of them in-
cludes a certain number of intermediaries. This could be regarded
as an «economic» element because it focuses on trading a single
product.
• These exchanges happen within a social and political context; the
product itself is secondary. The contextual element of drug traffic-
king has been the subject of many analyses in geopolitics. (Naylor,
2003).
On the other hand, most of the capital profits are obtained as compensa-
tion for the risk when importing, and in retail sales. The profit is greater
for the high level or medium level traffickers, but the majority is divided
among a great number of lower level traffickers. These analyses imply:
• The strategies to destroy the crops with the aim of increasing prices
in the destination countries are doomed since the beginning, and
• Transnational drug trafficking means the transfer of money to the
countries of origin and of transit. (Boivin, 2011).
The perspective of the world system offers a theoretical framework that
allows a worldwide analysis of drug trafficking. It is based on two ideas
common to geopolitical and economic analyses of drug trafficking:
• In the first place, drug trafficking is formed by chains of basic pro-
ducts, in other words, «a network [s] of work and production pro-
cesses whose final result is a finished product». Evidence suggests
that drug trafficking requires a structure of criminal opportunities,
no matter if they are formal or informal.
• Secondly, the countries that participate in different stages of drug
trafficking become interdependent. (Boivin, 2011).
287
Illegality plays a key role in any explanation of the concentration in the

production of coca and of cocaine: If an easy to produce item is declared
illegal worldwide, and its production is concentrated in one place, it will
be produced where there are fewer risks, in other words, where the law
is easier to break. This will occur where there is no state present, where
society supports the illegal production against state norms, and where
it is easy to create or use illegal trafficking networks.In short, where the
social and institutional structures are weak. (Thoumi, 2012).
The groups that participate in organized transnational crime may be di-

vided into territorial groups and trafficking groups (Carriers). The terri-
torial groups focus on keeping the control over a geographic area and on
imposing «taxes» on all criminal activities in that area, including drug
trafficking. Some openly use violence if necessary to maintain this con-
trol. The Carriers, on the other hand, prefer a low profile, by simply mo-
ving the smuggled goods from one place to another, showing respect for
the territorial groups when necessary. Some territorial groups, locally
known as tumbadores, focus on robbing the cargo from their carriers, and
are a significant source of violence. Finally, a type of territorial group, the
street gangs known as maras have little relation with transnational drug
trafficking, and they mainly focus on extortion, and other struggles for
local power. (UNODC (c), 2012, pages 11-13).
The challenges faced by the seven countries that form the isthmus that
unites North and South America are, in many ways, highly superior to
those that Mexico faces. The region is located in the route between the
production area for narcotics and the countries with the highest con-
288
sumption, thus being a natural springboard. These are decentralized and

weak states that have difficulty modernizing, with few resources, and wi-
thout the support of the elite who are unwilling to pay for those changes,
nor of the general population who clearly remembers what a powerful
and uncontrolled central government can do. (Dudley, 2011).
The result is a whole region under serious risk of falling into an uncontrolla-
ble spiral. The rates of assassinations, driven by the wars among transnatio-
nal street gangs and drug trafficking organizations, are among the highest in
the world. Numerous police, military, and border security agents are directly
working with organized crime o have created their own operations. The ju-
dicial authorities are overwhelmed, they lack training or resources, or have
simply given up confronted by the unprecedented challenge. There is no po-
litical party that is entirely above suspicion. (Dudley, 2011).
The two key challenges for security are the gangs, and organized crime.
These two phenomena are not alien to each other, and they appear to
have found their place in the center of the criminal world, as each one has
expanded their portfolios
The main flow of drugs from South America towards the United States
travels through the Central American corridor. According to calculations
by the U.S. government, approximately 95 percent of the cocaine that en-
ters the US, does so through Central America and Mexico. The amount
that is directly sent from South America to Mexico has dramatically de-
creased during the last five years due to the increasing pressure on the
cartels by the Mexican authorities. While in 2006, 55 percent of the illegal
narcotics headed towards the U.S. initially reached Mexico; in 2010 this
amount had decreased to only 7 percent.
Now, the drug shipments first reach Central America. The percentage of
drugs destined to the U.S. that arrive in Honduras has increased from 7
to 24 percent during the last five years; the amount that entered throu-
gh Panama went from 3 to 24 percent, and through Guatemala, from 9
to 17 percent. Approximately 12 percent enters through Costa Rica, a
proportion which remains relatively stable. The rest reach Nicaragua (2
percent), Belize (2 percent), and El Salvador (1 percent) or to unknown
places. (Harrigan, 2011).
Currently, the Drug Trafficking Organizations use, land, sea, and air tra-
ffic routes as means to move the drugs to the Central American isthmus
from South America to Mexico. The Drug Trafficking Organizations exploit
porous borders, corruption at all levels, and the lack of adequate means
of the local security forces responsible for enforcing the law, to transport
the illegal shipments through the region. Panama, Honduras and Guate-
mala are still the most common transfer points, and the consolidation
points for South American cocaine before it is sent to Mexico and the U.S.
(Harrigan, 2011).
289
Maritime traffic is the most common method for the entry of drugs in
Central America until they reach Guatemala. Upon arriving in Guatemala,
the drugs mostly travel to the U.S. by land. Due to the lack of trustworthy
land routes between Colombia and Panama, cocaine tends to reach Pana-
ma on ships. The traffickers prefer to use swift motorboats to sail along
the coastal regions throughout the thousands of remote islands and bays
that splash the Central American coast on both sides, the Pacific and the
Caribbean, to carry drugs to the isthmus since this protects them from
being captured by the U.S. Coast Guard cutters. (Harrigan, 2011).
Central America is the classical representation of the incessant dynamic
of drug trafficking in the last decades, in which the improvements in a
country or subregion mean the deterioration in other places. The «ba-
lloon effect» generally describes the phenomenon by which the reduction
of coca growing in one country can generate an increase in others. Ne-
vertheless, the balloon effect is much more destructive. All aspects of or-
ganized crime – from cultivation of drugs, its production, and all forms of
illegal trafficking – constantly change its aspects as the traffickers adapt
in order to meet the growing demand. (Arnson, 2011).
Most analysts coincide in that the crucial advantage that Guatemala offers to
organized crime, as well as to common delinquency, is the lack of efficient
State institutions. «It is not a question of failed states», declares Carlos Cas-
tresana, the Spanish public prosecutor that led the International Commission
against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) from 2007 to 2010. «It is a matter of
absent states because, between citizens and delinquents, there is nothing»
(ICG, GUATEMALA: DRUG TRAFFICKING AND VIOLENCE, 2011).
The most powerful criminal organizations play, within the illegal markets, a
governance role similar to the one played by the State in legal markets: the
establishment of norms, the allocation of resources, and the resolution of
disputes. In this sense organized crime is «a business and a government».
In different contexts, the criminal organizations are accused of operating
as «de facto government structures» or «private governments», «primitive
states» or competitors to the state. They not only raise armies, in a certain
way, but they can also assume legislative and judicial functions in the limi-
ted territories, markets, or towns. (Cockayne, 2013).
Organized crime groups
In Central America and the Caribbean, there are two main categories that
include all the organized crime groups:
• Territorial organized crime groups
• Transnational drug traffic groups (UNODC (c), 2012, page 21).
290
Central America and the Caribbean are located in the center of what has
been the flow of the highest value drugs in the world for a long time:
The flow of cocaine from South America to the U.S. This flow has affec-
ted the region for over 40 years, but recent changes in the world market
have changed the role played by some countries. The countries that had
previously been used as refuelling stops have turned into storage and lo-
gistic centers for the transnational drug traffic groups. (UNODC (c), 2012,
page 21).
The efficient interdiction efforts in the Caribbean, the narco-war in Mexi-
co, and the dynamics of the isthmus itself made some Mexican Drug Tra-
fficking Organizations expand their operations to the south. Fragile state
institutions, vast ungoverned areas, especially in bordering and forest
areas, corruption, a weak supervision of the financial system, limited law
enforcement, as well as poverty and social inequality allow organized cri-
me to flourish. (Wolf, 2012).
Guatemala is an door to access Mexico for drugs coming from other parts
of Central America. Furthermore, it created the landing center for nar-
co-flights before these increased in Honduras, where the confusion after
the coup against President Manuel Zelaya, in 2009, allowed the inten-
sification of anarchy and insecurity. The key players in this delinquent
panorama are the Mexican OTDs (Drug Traffickers Organizations), and
Central American groups known as carriers, whose main function is the
reception, stockpiling, and movement of drugs throughout the isthmus.
(Wolf, 2012).
Territorial organized crime groups
The key organized delinquency structures – the drug trafficking groups

that control the territory – are, in fact, quasi-governmental players whose
power feeds on its riches, and whose riches allow them to spread their
power. Unlike the street gangs, who have spread even to the smallest
Central American town, and include a significant part of the male youths;
the number of members of these drug trafficking groups is limited.
This type of territorial control requires the capacity to impose it, to have
something similar to a private army. It needs to have a clear hierarchy
and a chain of command, otherwise the control would be lost in favor of
other better organized groups. The «families» are the head of the group,
often made up by a patriarch or patriarchs and their sons, with blood ties,
which allow them to gain the trust in activities where otherwise it would
often be insufficient. These territorial groups are involved in local affairs,
which expand the reach of their activities. They can demand payment (ex-
tortion), give credit at high interest rates (usury), and dictate the local
291
employment conditions (labor blackmail) within their areas of influence.

(UNODC(c), 2012, page 22).
In some countries, certain units specialized in the fight against organi-
zed crime have had spectacular success when disarticulating this type
of crime. Those groups often include teams of researchers and public
prosecutors who work jointly from the beginning of an investigation, gua-
ranteeing that the proper and necessary documents are gathered to en-
sure a conviction in court. These are considered elite units, and may be
supervised by international advisors, thus adding credibility and better
global procedures for this initiative.
Guatemala is the country that best exemplifies the complexity of violen-
ce in this region. The most violent areas in the country are around the
seaports, the border crossing points, and along the main roads. These
are not merely drug trafficking areas: they are drug trafficking disputed
areas. Large extensions of land in the southwest of the country (where
the Cartel of the Pacific and its allies, the Chamales, operate), and in the
provinces of the interior Alta and Baja Verapaz (area of influence of the
Zetas) there is very little violence. The areas with more problems in Gua-
temala seem to be along the borders with Honduras and El Salvador, the
areas disputed by the Cartel of the Pacific, allies of the Mendozas, and the
Zetas, allies of the Lorenzanas.
The maras
As in the other countries of the northern triangle, the drug trafficking ac-
tivities of the maras is usually limited to a local level, but the resulting
scenario is not homogenous. (Wolf, 2012). The gang members’ activities
are concentrated in two groups: the Mara Salvatrucha, or MS-13, y the Ba-
rrio 18, or Mara 18. Both began in Los Angeles in the U.S. They have both
spread throughout the United States, Mexico, and Central America, partly
as a result of the U.S. policy to repatriate the illegal immigrants, as well
as the gang members with permanent residence, back to their countries
of origin, after having served jail sentences.
One of the most controversial aspects of the gangs is the nature of their
participation in organized crime, particularly in drug trafficking. The Cen-
tral American authorities have compared the Barrio 18 and the MS-13
maras with organized crime groups because they allegedly have criminal
purposes, a transnational structure, a leadership with several levels, and
they use firearms and communication technology. Furthermore, police
sources have declared that the gangs have taken up the drug trafficking
business in the isthmus. (Wolf, 2012).
The fundamental difference between the street gangs and the organized
crime groups is manifest in the aim that justifies the existence of these
292
criminal groups. The purpose of organized crime is to obtain and accu-

mulate economic profit. However, although the juvenile gangs frequently
commit crimes for economic purposes, they usually play an instrumental
role with respect to other objectives. The aim of the juvenile gangs is not
to become rich, nor to employ violence or crime, but rather to create an
alternative means to make a living and lifestyle for its members. The eco-
nomic crimes that the gangs commit are to provide a means of support to
their members, and to preserve a specific identity. (Wolf, 2012).
The existence of transnational bonds is not surprising because many
gang members are deported to their respective countries of origin. Ne-
vertheless, the fact that youngsters in different countries declare that
they belong to the same gang does not necessarily reflect the prolife-
ration of a transnational gang network that responds to a sole chain of
command. The maras are still networks of autonomous groups that share
a symbolic, identifying, and standardized affiliation. (Wolf, 2012).
For ICG (2010), although there is a perception that the maras have an in-
creasing bond with organized crime in the region, it is difficult to genera-
lize. The size and dynamics of the gangs is different in every country. The
leadership is amorphous: some maras have a more horizontal structure,
while others are more vertical and hierarchical. What does seem clear is
that the main purpose of the maras in the world of organized crime is the
local distribution of illegal drugs, which sometimes introduces them into
the wholesale business. In some cases they are paid assassins. In El Sal-
vador and Honduras, they lead, from the prisons, extortion organizations
which sometimes extend beyond national borders.
However, for Clare Ribando Seelke (2013), although the MS-13 and the
M-18 started as loosely structured street gangs, there is evidence that
both gangs, but particularly the MS-13, have spread out geographically,
and that they are more organized and sophisticated. At the beginning of
2008, the U.S. police had found evidence that suggests that some leaders
of the MS-13 incarcerated in El Salvador were ordering reprisal assassi-
nations against people in the metropolitan area of Washington, and had
laid out plans to unify their clicas (gangs) with those in the U.S.
The estimates of the total number of gang members in Central Ameri-
ca vary widely; a senior official of the Department of State has recently
estimated that there may be 85,000 street gang members from the MS-
13 and the M-18 in the countries of the Northern Triangle (El Salvador,
Guatemala, and Honduras). The United Nations Office on Drugs and Cri-
me (UNODC) recently estimated the total members of the MS-13 and the
M-18 in Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras at a more modest 54,000
members. El Salvador has the highest concentration of members of the
gang, with around 323 mareros (mara gang members) per 100,000 inha-
bitants, double the amount in Guatemala and Honduras. In comparison, in
293
2007, the UNODC had mentioned a total of 10,500 national members in El

Salvador, 36,000 in Honduras, and 14,000 in Guatemala. (Seelke, 2013).
The regional and U.S. authorities have confirmed the increase of the par-
ticipation of the maras in drug trafficking, although most of them locally,
since the U.S. authorities maintain that the gangs «facilitate the logistics
and transport for the trafficking industry in Central America and Mexico».
It is known that the MS-13 is hired on an ad-hoc basis by conflicting Drug
Trafficking Organizations in Mexico to carry out reprisal killings. Some
analysts claim that the relationship between drug trafficking organiza-
tions and gangs seems to be more developed in El Salvador and, to a
lesser degree, in Honduras, but with few connections among Drug Tra-
fficking Organizations and gangs in Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, or
Panama. (Seelke, 2013).
Transnational drug trafficking groups
Besides the organized crime territorial groups, the drug trafficking trans-
national groups are essential for drug trafficking. A great deal of the cu-
rrent violence in the region is due to the growing control of the territorial
groups over transnational traffic. This gives way to conflicts between the
aforementioned territorial groups and the carriers, as well as to conflicts
among different territorial groups. (UNODC (c), 2012, page 21).
Territorial groups initially focused on the control of the territory and on
taxing the activities inside their domain. The traffickers, on their side, are
supplier, carrier and receptor networks, such as the ones in any supply
chain, and they are generically known in the entire region as «carriers».
The carriers are continuously growing, transporting illegal drugs for the
main Mexican cartels, including the one from Sinaloa, the most powerful
and largest federation of groups in Mexico, with operations that go from
Argentina to Colombia and all of Central America. (Wolf, 2012).
The importance of the sub-national groups
The main organized crime territorial groups in Central America alre-

ady had an identity before becoming involved in cocaine trafficking.
This is because cocaine trafficking does not create territorial groups
but rather creates carriers. If the carriers could do their business
without obstacles from the territorial groups, they would, and the
impact of drug trafficking in the transit countries would be lower.
However, once the traffic routes include wide areas, particularly
border areas, the pre-existing interests clash. In the borders, these
interests were already controlling the smuggling, they had experien-
ce in clandestine crossings, and high level connections with corrupt
294
officials at a high level. At the beginning, they simply tax the trade,
but they soon try to control it. While traveling in these areas raises
the costs, as a last resort, the cargo could be safer than at open sea.
(UNODC (c), 2012, page 30).
Regional actors
Colombia and Mexico are the two regional players that, together with
Cuba – in the past – have had the most influence in the region. Mexico is
the most influential country in the area after the United States, playing a
historical role of compensation of the influence of the former. The present
situation in Mexico, whose cartels control the cocaine traffic and the ba-
lloon effect of the fight against the mentioned cartels, has provoked the
shift of violence to Central America, particularly to the Northern triangle.
Whatever happens in Mexico affects Central America.
Colombia is the origin of most of the cocaine that travels throughout Cen-
tral America. The Colombia Plan has pushed part of the production to
bordering countries (mainly Peru and Bolivia) but it is still a key country
as origin of the traffic, along with Venezuela, with growing protagonism.
The agreement reached between the Colombian government and the Re-
volutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrillas in Havana about
drugs and drug trafficking could have an impact on 70% of the illegal
production of coca in this country.
Global actors
Among the global actors, the United States deserves special treatment.
China and Russia deserve less attention. Comparing the Mediterranean
Sea with the Caribbean, Mahan used to declare:
«….. Besides, in many ways, at this moment there is a very notable ana-
logy with the Caribbean Sea, an analogy that would be even greater if
a route through the Panama Canal was ever completed. A study of the
strategic conditions of the Mediterranean, which has been widely illus-
trated, will serve as a basis for a similar study of the Caribbean, which,
comparatively, has little history…» (Mahan, 1890).
Roosevelt threatened the Latin American countries with an armed inter-
vention on the grounds of the «right» to intervene in the affairs of other
countries to defend the interests of the citizens of the United States, in
application of his corollary «America for the Americans». (Selser, 1962).
William Howard Taft once declared that: «…. The entire hemisphere will
295
be ours, as it already is morally the same way it is already ours morally,

by virtue of our racial superiority». (Galeano, 1970, page 142).
In order to understand the policy of the United States toward Central
America, it is useful to know the geopolitical approaches of Spykman
and of Kennan. Spykman considers «Mediterranean America» as «an
area where the supremacy of the United States cannot be questio-
ned. For all purposes, it is a closed sea whose keys belong to the
United States…….». The concept of special interest is the basis of the
«Kennan doctrine» who, upon defining the «contention degrees» in
front of the Soviet Union, pointed out that Central Europe, and Cen-
tral America and the Caribbean would find themselves in an abso-
lute degree of control, «where any movement should be answered
forcefully».
The successive governments of the United States have given privilege to
the short-term needs of their own domestic policies. (Villanueva, 2005).
Nevertheless, the Obama administration focuses, in the words of Secre-
tary of State Clinton, on «inducing greater cooperation among a growing
number of actors…… displacing the balance from a multipolar world
towards a world with multiple partners.» (Herd, 2011).
The Panama Canal is critical. It allows the mutual reinforcement of the
fleets in the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans, which is an essential element
in the strategy of the United States. Any threat to the freedom of move-
ment of the ships of the United States through the Panama Canal would
be considered as a serious threat to its vital national interests, lines of
communication, and resources.
We can divide the relations between the Soviet Union and Central
America into five periods: The first (1917 to 1943) corresponds to the
predominance of the relations among parties regarding the bonds be-
tween the states. The second (1944 to 1954) includes the beginning
of the recognition of the states, although without an exchange of re-
presentatives, and with the participation of communist leaders in the
governments of Costa Rica and Guatemala. The third (1954 to 1968) is
characterized by a retrenchment of the relations, and by the ideologi-
cal and strategic conflicts of the communist parties in the continent.
In the fourth period (1970 to 1979) there is a relative increase of com-
mercial relations. The fifth and last, in the decade of the 1980s, which
starts with the Sandinista victory in Nicaragua, corresponds to the de-
velopment of the crisis in Central America. Russia, heir of the USSR,
has maintained discrete relations, with a certain degree of influence
on the countries of the ALBA Group (ALBA - Bolivarian Alternative for
Latin America and the Caribbean).
In any case, the Russian influence is being substituted by that of China.
China is participating in various interoceanic corridor projects (Nicaragua
296
and Honduras), which would compete with the Panama Canal, controlled
by the United States. Regarding consumption goods, the large purchases
of raw materials by China, and the commercial deficit of the region along
with the consolidation of the new-extractivism are to be highlighted.7
The commercial boom between China and the region emerges as a re-
sult of a deliberate strategy from China’s side, and as a reaction from the
Latin part. The estimations carried out by CEPAL (2011) is that China will
gradually push out the classic commercial partners – the United States
and the European Union -- for exports in the region. This same projection
would be applicable to imports from China. In 2015 the Asian giant will
have replaced the European Union as industrial supplier.
The role of the European Union and Spain
The European Union and the six Central American countries (Costa
Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama) have
full relations that include political dialogue, cooperation and a favora-
ble commercial regime. The San Jose Dialogue is the basis for the re-
lations between the European Union and Central America. Since then,
the European Union has undertaken an important contribution to pea-
ce, the democratization process, and the socio-economic development
of Central America.
The European Union has always supported the regional integration of
the area, keeping in mind the peculiarities and differential riches that are
characteristic of the area. In June of 2007, the negotiations for an As-
sociation Agreement between the European Union and Central America
started, and they ended in 2010 on the occasion of the EU-LAC summit
held in Madrid. The Agreement was signed in Honduras in June of 2012
considering the provisional enforcement of the trade segment.
The role of Spain is at the same time historical, particularly linked to the
role of the Chief of State – the Crown – and of the interests of Spanish
companies in the area. Furthermore, Spain is, without a doubt, the na-
tural bridge between both regions: the frequent visits of King Phillip VI,
particularly to Inaugural Ceremonies of Central American Presidents, and
the visits of the aforementioned Presidents to Spain, are an essential di-
plomatic element at the highest level, which is extraordinarily effective.
7
Neo-extractivism refers to a form of extraction more than to a specific activity: all
activities that move large volumes of natural goods and are transported far from their
areas of origin (almost) without processing. Mining, oil, gas, dams, monocultures (of
cereal or forestry), agro-industry, cattle farming o intensive fishing, etc., are within this
category, and they are able to increase their concentration. From among them, mining
is the one that can produce the largest amount of non-renewable resources in the least
amount of time.
297
Conclusions
In Central America we find deep-rooted historical problems along with

emerging «wicked» problems for which we have no recipes. We are now
witnessing a proliferation of «wicked problems», of unforeseen conse-
quences, which seem to point out a certain weakness of the United States
world leadership.
Central America shows us two contradictory geopolitical dynamics:
It is a connecting isthmus between North and South America, but it is
also the «least resistance road» between the Atlantic and the Pacific
Oceans.
The process of the creation of the national States in Latin America resul-
ted in numerous areas in dispute. Some of these disputes still exist in our
days. One of the legacies of colonial Central America was the territorial
divisions drawn by the «Ordinances of the Intendancies» of 1785, that
were not totally marked, and the separations between State-nation that
cannot be easily distinguished.
The superimposition of agents with structures nested at different levels
forces its description to be done through complex geopolitics or geopo-
litical disorder. The ethnic and linguistic diversity is a centrifugal factor,
particularly if the communities have a feeling of exclusion. The ethnic
factor is present throughout Central America, and it is sometimes of a
transnational nature.
The perspective of an eventual improvement of the security in the
region will basically depend on the reduction of the North-South
and South-North trafficking. The reduction of cocaine production
in Colombia, after an agreement with the FARC, could be a positive
element for the whole region; but the balloon effect would not gua-
rantee the results unless there was a substantial reduction of the
consumption in the United States. The transnational nature of the
networks, the economic interests involved, and the corruption asso-
ciated to both, leads us to believe that the security will not improve
significantly on a short/medium term.
The transnationality mentioned above, the importance of the border
crossing points, and the routes between them invite us to use geopo-
litical analyses based on the dynamics of the social networks, where
the nodes and connectors are essential elements, and partly subs-
titutive elements of the territory and the more traditional powers. In
any event, it is considered necessary to superimpose diverse theo-
retical approximations in order to explain the situation in Central
America.
298
Appendix I. Chart of regional data
299
Bibliography
Albert, R., Jeong, H., & Barabasi, A. -L. (2000). Letters to Nature: Error and
attack tolerance of complex networks. Nature, 406, 378-382.
Arnson, C. J. (2011). U. S. -Central America Security Cooperation. Washing-
ton: Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control.
Ashour, A. (October 16, 2011). US policy and the Arab spring. Al Ahram
weekly, page. http://weekly. ahram. org. eg/2011/1067/op4. htm.
Babić, B. S. (2009). Geo-Economics – Reality & Science. Megatrend Review
Vol. 6 (1), 27-54.
Bacchetta, V. L. (1984. ). Geopolítica, onflictos fronterizos y guerras lo-
cales en America Latina. (Geopolitics, frontier conflicts and local wars
in Latin America) Afers Internacionals nº 4, 73-95.
Bagley, B. (2013). The Evolution of Drug Trafficking and Organized Crime
in Latin America. SOCIOLOGIA, PROBLEMAS E PRÁTICAS, (SOCIOLOGY,
PROBLEMS, AND PRACTICES), n. º 71, pp., 99-123.
Baumann, R. F. (1997). Historical Perspectives on Future War. Military Re-
view March-April 1997.
Beswick, D., & Jackson, P. (2011). Conflict, Security and Development. An
Introduction. Oxon: Routledge.
Boivin, R. (October 4, 2011). Drug trafficking networks in the world-econo-
my. Recovered on August 3, 2013, from ERDR: http://www. erdr. org/
textes/boivin. Pdf.
Bright, D. A., Greenhill, C., & Levenkova, N. (5 de septiembre de 2011). Dis-
mantling criminal networks: can node attributes play a role? Recovered
on August 3, 2013, from ERDR: http://www. erdr. org/textes/bright_
greenhill_levenkova. pdf
CEPAL. (2011). La República Popular China y América Latina y el Caribe.
Hacia una nueva fase en el vínculo económico y comercial. (The Peo-
ple’s Republic of China, and Latin America and the Caribbean. Towards
a new stage in the economic and commercial link.) Santiago de Chile:
Naciones Unidas, Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Ca-
ribe (United Nations, Economic Committee for Latin America and the
Caribbean) (CEPAL).
CNN. (September 30, 2012). Si yo fuera estadounidense, votaría por Obama:
Hugo Chávez. (If I were from the United States, I would vote for Obama:
Hugo Chávez.) Recovered on October 8, 2012, from Spanish CNN. com:
http://cnnespanol. cnn. com
Cockayne, J. (2013). Chasing Shadows. The RUSI Journal, 158:2, , 10-24.
Dalton, J. J. (May 20, 2014). La violencia de las maras salvadoreñas
vuelve a crecer. (The violence of the Salvadorean maras grows again)
Recovered on June 1, 2014, from «El País – International»: http://
300
internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/05/20/actuali-
dad/1400613230_486461.html
Defense Department. (2012). Sustaining U. S. Global Leadership: Priorities
for 21st Century Defense. Washington DC: Defense Department.
Dudley, S. S. (2011). Central America besieged: cartels and maras country
threat analysis. Small Wars & Insurgencies, 22:5, 890-913.
Dussouy, G. (2001). Quelle géopolitique au XXIe siècle? Complexe.
Fabregat, C. H. (2012). Entorno al concepto de Geopolítica Clásica. (Around
the concept of Classical Geopolitics) Revista de Geopolítica, Natal (Geo-
politics Magazine)- RN, v. 3, nº 2, 37 – 60.
Fabregat, C. H. (2013). El resurgimiento de la geopolítica: la geopolítica
cibernética. (Resurgence of geopolitics: Cybernetic geopolitics) Revista
de Geopolítica (Geopolitics Magazine), Vol. 4, No 1, 14-35.
Flint, C. (2012). Introduction to Geopolitics. Abingdon: Routledge.
Fraser, D.M. (2010). Commander United States Sothern Command, Posture
Statement Before the 111th Congress Senate Armed Service Committee,
March 11, 2010. Washington: US Congres.
Freedman, L.. (1992). Strategic Studies and the Problem of Power. En L.
Freedman, P. Hayes, & R. O’Neill, War, Strategy, and International Poli-
tics: Essays in Honor of Sir Michael Howard (pág. 294). Oxford: Claren-
don Press.
Freedman, L. (2007). Terrorism as a Strategy. Government and Opposition
(Vol. 42, No. 3, Summer 2007), p. 318.
Friedman, T. (2005). The World is Fla. The globalized world in the twenty
first century. Londres: Penguin.
Galeano, E. (1970). Las Venas Abiertas de América Latina. (The open veins of
Latin America) Mexico, Buenos Aires: Siglo XXI editores. (publishers)
García Segura, C. (2009). EE.UU.: Los retos y las propuestas del cambio en
la política exterior. (The United States: Challenges and proposals for
change in foreign policy) Icaria: CEIPAZ-Fundación Cultura de Paz,
(Peace Culture Foundation) Anuario (Yearbook) 2009-2010.
Giménez-Salinas, A. (August, 2011). Illegal networks or criminal organiza-
tions: Power, roles and facilitators in four cocaine trafficking structures.
Recovered August 3, 2013, de ERDR: http://www. erdr. org/textes/
gimenez_salinas-framis. pdf
Grygiel, J. J. (2006). Great Power and Geoplitical Change. Baltimore: Johns
Hopkins.
Hänggi, H. ‘. -6. (2003). Making Sense of Security Sector Governance. En H.
Hänggi, & T. Winkler, Challenges of Security Sector Governance (págs.
3-23). Münster: LIT.
301
Harrigan, T. M. (2011). U. S. – CENTRAL AMERICA SECURITY COOPERATION.

Washington: SENATE CAUCUS ON INTERNATIONAL NARCOTICS CON-
TROL.
Herd, G. P. (2011). The Global Puzzle: Order in an Age of Primacy Pow-
er-Shifts and Interdependence. GCSP Geneva Papers — Research Se-
ries n° 1, 2011, 7-34.
Holland, S. (September 13, 2012). Romney says U. S. seems «at the mercy
of events» in world. Recovered October 12, 2012, from Reuters: http://
www. reuters. com
Howard, M. (1987). Las causa de los conflictos y otros ensayos. (The causes
of conflicts and other essays) Madrid: Ediciones Ejército.
ICG. (2010). Guatemala: Asfixiada entre el crimen y la impunidad. (Guatema-
la: Suffocated between crime and impunity) Bogota/Brussels: Interna-
tional Crisis Group.
ICG. (2011). GUATEMALA: NARCOTRÁFICO Y VIOLENCIA. (GUATEMALA: DRUG
TRAFFICKING AND VIOLENCE) Guatemala City/Bogota/Brussels: ICG.
Jarrín, E. M. (1988). The Impact of World Crisis on Geopolitical Conflicts.
En J. S. Michelena, Latin America peace, democratization and economía
crisis. NJ: Universidad de las Naciones Unidas.
Kagan, R. (2009). The Return of History and the End of Dreams. Nueva York:
Vintage.
KajiÉ, & OCAA. (2001). Los Hijos de la Tierra hablan. Política, poder local y
pueblos indígenas. (The Children of the Earth Speak: Politics, local pow-
er and indigenous peoples) Guatemala: Editorial Maya Nojib´sa.
Kourliansky, J. -J. (2010). Nuevas amenazas un concepto relativo. (New
threats, a relative concept) La Vanguardia, Dossier, nº 84, 84-85.
Kubarych, R. M. (20 de mayo de 2004). Geo-economics Injects New Uncer-
tainties into Troubled Markets. Council on Foreign Relations. Recovered
May 2, 2013, de http://www.cfr.org/economics/geo-economics-in-
jects-new-uncertainties-into-troubled-markets/p7039
Lacoste, Y. (2006). A Geopolítica do Mediterraneo, original Geopolitique de
la Mediterranée. (Mediterranean geo-politics, original Geopolitique de la
Mediterranée) Lisbon: EDIÇOES 70.
Lorca, A. V.,& Escribano, G. (1997). Geoeconomía y geopolítica mediter-
ráneas. (Mediterranean geo-economics and geo-politics) Madrid: ICE.
Lorot, P. (1999). La nouvelle grammaire des rivalités internationales (The
new grammar of international rivalries). In P. Lorot, Introduction á la
Géoéconomie, Introduction to Geo-economics). Paris: Economica.
Luttwak, E. (1990). From geo-politics to geo-economics: the logic of con-
flict, grammar of commerce. The National Interest, summer, 17-23.
Luttwak, E. (1999). Turbo capitalism: winners and loosers in the global
economy. New York: Harper and Collins Publishers.
302
Mahan, A. T. (1890). The influence of sea power upon history. Boston: Little,
Brown and company.
Marchal, J. -Y., & Grayeb, R. P. (1997). Las regiones ambiguas de Veracruz:
un ejercicio, (The ambiguous regions of Veracruz: an exercise). In O.
Hoffmann, & F. l. Castro, Nueve estudios sobre el espacio Represent-
ación y formas de apropiación (Nine studies about space. Representa-
tion and forms of appropriation) (pp. 192). México: CIESAS.
Morillas, P., & Soler I Lecha, E. (July 18, 2012). La Unión Europea y la
‘primavera árabe’. (The European Union and the «Arab Spring»)
El Pais- Opinión, pág. http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/07/03/opin-
ion/1341338409_324409.html.
Naylor, R. T. (2003). Towards a general theory of profit-driven crimes. Brit-
ish journal of criminology, 43, 81-101.
NDIC. (2011). National Drug Threat Assessment . Washington: U. S. Depart-
ment of Justice. National Drug Intelligence Center.
Olier, E. (2012). Geoeconomía. Las claves de la economia global. (Geo-eco-
nomics. The keys to the global economy) Madrid: Prentice Hall, 2011.
Orozco, M. (2001). Conflictos fronterizos en América Central: Tendencias
pasadas y sucesos actuales. (Border conflicts in Central America:
Past tendencies and current events) Pensamiento Propio, 105-144.
Obtained from Gloobal Pensamiento Propio nº14: http://www.gloobal.
net/iepala/gloobal/fichas/ficha. php?entidad=Textos&id=5669&op-
cion=documento#s25
Pérez de Armiñon, K. (2007). El concepto y el uso de la seguridad hu-
mana: análisis crítico de sus potencialidades y riesgos. (The concept
and use of human security: a critical analysis of its potentialities and
risks). Magazine CIDOB d’Afers Internacionals,(76), 59-77.
Pfetsch, F. R. , & Rohloff. , C. (2000). National and International Conflicts,
1945-1995. New Empirical and Theorical Approaches. London: Rout-
ledge.
PNUD. (2002). Desarrollo humano en la costa caribe de Nicaragua. (Human
development in the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua). Managua: Programa
de Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo. (United Nations Program for
Development)
PNUD. (2003). Desafío de la Multiculturalidad. (The challenge of multi-cul-
turality). In PNUD, Segundo Informe sobre Desarrollo Humano en Cen-
troamérica y Panamá (Second Report on Human Development in Central
America and Panama) (pp. 331-366). San José, Costa Rica: PNUD ONU.
PNUD(c). (2013). SEGURIDAD CIUDADANA CON ROSTRO HUMANO: diag-
nóstico y propuestas para América Latina. (CITIZEN SECURITY WITH A
HUMAN FACE: diagnosis and proposals for Latin America) New York:
United Nations Program for Development
303
PNUD(d). (1994). Global Human Development Report. New Dimensions of

Human Security. New York: Oxford University Press.
Preciado Coronado, J. (2010). La construcción de una geopolítica críti-
ca desde América Latina y el Caribe. Hacia una agenda de investi-
gación regional. (The construction of critical geopolitics from Latin
America and the Caribbean. Towards an agenda of regional research)
Geopolítica(s). Revista de estudios sobre espacio y poder, (Geopolitics.
Magazine of studies of space and power) vol. 1, number 1, 65-94.
Quagliotti De Bellis, B. (July 17, 2008). ¿La última de la administración
Bush? IV Flota impone su presencia en el Atlantico Sur. (The last
Bush Administration? The 4th Fleet imposes its presence in the South
Atlantic Ocean). Recovered on January 6, 2011, from La onda digital,:
http://www. laondadigital.com
Raiffa, H. (1982 ). The Art and Science of Negotiation. Cambridge: Harvard
Univ. Press.
Renner, G. T. (1942). Human Geography in the Air Age. New York: Macmillan.
Rice, C. (2008). Repensar el interés nacional. El realismo estadounidense
para un nuevo mundo. (Rethinking national interest. The United States
realism for the new world) Foreign Affairs Latinoamérica (Foreign Af-
fairs Latin America), volume 8, number 4, 130-150.
Roosevelt, T. (1905). Theodore Roosevelt’s Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine
(1905). Recovered September 21, 2012, from our documents: http://
www. ourdocuments. gov
Salinas, C. , Sandoval, P. X. , & Murillo, A. (June 23, 2013). Los chinos abren
el Caribe en canal. (The Chinese open the Caribbean through a canal)
«El País».
Seelke, C. R. (2013). Gangs in Central America. Washington: Congressional
Research Service.
Selser, G. (1962). Diplomacia, garrote y dolares en America Latina. (Diplo-
macy, Big Stick, and dollars in Latin America) Buenos Aires: Palestra.
Thoumi, f. e. (2012). Políticas de drogas ilegales: ¿dónde, cómo y qué de-
batir? (Illegal drugs policies: where, how, what to debate) In Anuario
2012 de la seguridad regional en América Latina y el Caribe (Yearbook
2012 of regional security in Latin America and the Caribbean) (pp. 217-
233). Bogota: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.
UNODC. (2011). Global Study on Homicide. Trends, Context, Data. United Na-
tions Organization. Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.
UNODC(b). (2013). GLOBAL STUDY ON HOMICIDE 2013 TRENDS, CONTEXTS,
DATA. Vienna: UNITED NATIONS OFFICE ON DRUGS AND CRIME.
UNODC(c). (2012). Transnational Organized Crime in Central America and
the Caribbean: A Threat Assessment. Vena: United Nations Office on
Drugs and Crime.
304
Villanueva, A. (January 5, 2005). América Latina en la visión Geopolítica de

EE.UU. (Latin America in the geo-political outlook of the United States)
Recovered March 13, 2010, from news com: http://www. noticias.com
Watts, B. D. (2012). Barriers to acting straegically. En T. G. Mahnken, Com-
petitive Strategies for the 21st Century (págs. 47-67). Stanford: Stan-
ford University Press.
Wolf, s. (2012). El nexo entre las maras y el crimen organizado. (The link
between the maras and organized crime) In H. M. Guarnizo, Anuario
2012 de la seguridad regional en América Latina y el Caribe (2012 Year-
book of regional security in Latin America and the Caribeean) (pp. 252-
274). Bogota: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.
Zakaria, F. (2009). El mundo despues de USA. (The world after the USA)
Madrid: Espasa-Calpe.
Zakaria, F. (2009). El mundo después de USA. (The world after the USA)
Madrid: Espasa.
305
Towards signing peace in Colombia Chapter
eleven
Summary
Two years ago now, contacts started, and subsequently the peace talks
between the Colombian government and the FARC-EP (Revolutionary
Armed Forces of Colombia-People’s Army) Any well-informed observer
might think that too much time has elapsed since that date without any
definite results from this process, because the armed clashes and the
political discrepancies have continued.. However, the fact that the parties
involved are still in contact is in itself a promising factor.
Key words
Latin America, guerrilla activity, peace negotiations, drug trafficking, in-

security and citizenship education, international support.
307
Towards signing peace in Colombia
Introduction
In «Geopolitical Overview of Conflicts, 2013» (Spanish Institute of

Strategic Studies – IEEE - 2014), we had the opportunity to publish
Part I of this paper which, due to publication deadlines, had to be deli-
vered on September 1st of that year. Since then, peace talks between
the Government of Colombia and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of
Colombia (FARC) have continued, although at a slower pace than many
would want.
During this period, the key to these peace talks inexorably revolved around
the legislative process in Colombia which took place, in accordance with
the Constitution, in two stages: March 9th, when the legislative elections
were held, and the presidential elections on May 25th for the first round
and June 15th for the second round.
There is a feeling that the FARC tried to slow down the peace talks to ob-
tain better results in the negotiations, thus putting pressure on the gover-
nment of Colombia, which was subject to the results from the elections,
without either of them realizing that if Colombia missed this chance for
peace, it would be difficult to have such an opportunity again.
In the meantime, former President Álvaro Uribe, the shadow presiden-
tial candidate and head of the Central Democratic Party which submit-
ted former minister Óscar Iván Zuluaga as official presidential candidate,
decided to run for Senator in the legislative elections, while continuing
to firmly oppose the form and conditions in which the peace talks were
being held in Havana.
On the other hand, the existing perception in the international arena con-
tinued being favorable to the peace negotiations led by Colombian Presi-
dent J.M. Santos; in America (Michelle Bachelet, Rafael Correa, B. Obama),
and in the European Union, the United Nations, the Davos Forum (held in
January, 2014 with the attendance of President Santos).
From another perspective, the most directly involved countries in the
peace process, Norway, Chile, Venezuela, and Cuba, continued giving their
negotiating and logistical assistance to the Table of Talks being held in
Havana
Previous negotiation attempts
As we have thoroughly commented in the first part of this work, in the

breeding ground that was the Cold War, numerous guerrilla groups were
born or were created in Latin America, some of a Marxist-Leninist nature,
309
and others that simply opposed the extreme conservatism that gover-
ned those countries; all of it under the scrutiny, at least of, the United
States. Some time later, the spectacular increase of drug trafficking, the
appearance of primarily criminal gangs (the BACRIM – Criminal Gangs
– Bandas Criminales) dedicated to extortion, kidnappings, smuggling, the
action of «paramilitary» groups, often protected by some governments
with the aim of eliminating the guerrilla groups using the same weapons
they used, the lack of collaboration from other governments in the region
or the incompetent aid from only few sides, led Colombia to turn into an
almost failed State. If we add to all of this the appearance in the world
scenario of terrorism in its diverse forms and only apparently indiscrimi-
nate, we can state that today we finally find ourselves before a painting of
thick and dark strokes.
The FARC-EP (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia – People’s Army),
about which we will speak now, apparently arose around 1950-1960 in
the south of the country, namely in Maquetalia. Today, this guerrilla group
is undoubtedly the most numerous and with the most political weight (as
they are showing in Havana), and it carries out its activities in the south
of the country, and in the areas of Putumayo, Tolima, Nariño, Cauca, and
Valle del Cauca.
The leaders of this guerrilla group have, of course, changed since those
first days due to the loss in combat of some of its leaders, and to the vicis-
situdes of the political dynamics of the group itself. Thus, the theoretical
leadership of the FARC-EP is currently in the hands of Rodrigo Londoño
Echeverry, alias «Timoleón Jiménez» and «Timochenco».
The members of this guerrilla group amount to 18,000 men and women,
between active and auxiliary members, although this information is sub-
ject to revision due to the natural difficulty of any calculation and to the
abandonment of the arms by some of them, and to the incorporation of
others to the guerrilla.
The European Union and the United States view the FARC-EP as a terro-
rist armed group.
Considering the worryisome increase of Colombian drug trafficking
towards the United States and Europe (with a substantial activity throu-
gh Spain), it is difficult at this moment in Colombia to distinguish among
drug trafficking activities, political subversion, and the conduct of crimi-
nal gangs. In the opinion of former Colombian President Andrés Pastrana,
which appeared in the Madrid newspaper «El País» on March 23, 2014,
this guerrilla group has become the largest drug trafficking cartel in the
world.
On the other hand, we cannot say that the current President Juan Manuel
Santos Calderón has been the only one who tried to end the different gue-
310
rrilla groups by negotiating with them. Belisario Betancur Cuartas (1982-

1986), Virgilio Barco Vargas (1986-1990), César Gaviria Trujillo (1990-
1994), Ernesto Samper Pizano (1994-1998), Andrés Pastrana Arango
(1998-2002) and Álvaro Uribe Vélez (2002-2006 y 2006-2010), in other
words, all of the Colombian Presidents since 1982 tried, in one way or
another, to negotiate peace with the different guerrilla groups.
The development of the negotiations
Currently, however, the negotiations seem to be going along different rou-

tes than in the earlier stage. Thus, immediately upon taking office in 2010,
the current President, Juan Manual Santos, decided to take on new peace
negotiations with the different guerrilla groups, but from another pers-
pective. He did not lack experience in this area as he had been an active
Minister of Defense in Álvaro Uribe’s last cabinet.
Land reform is being debated now. This reform has historically been a
key issue pending to be settled in Colombia between landowners and se-
ttlers, livestock owners and farmers, coca growers and other peasants;
as well as public health, education, housing; as well as the integration of
the guerrilla members (especially the leaders) into the political arena,
the future of the crops, the sale and trafficking of cocaine, and finally the
disarmament on the part of the guerrilla members.
As can be confirmed, this negotiation entails a scope that reaches the
political, and particularly the constitutional, arena, which it additionally
developed under the fire of weapons by an express wish of the govern-
ment of Colombia because the guerrillas had promised a ceasefire. Thus,
the struggle, along with its corresponding casualties, kept on being at the
expense of the population.
Thus, beginning on August 26, 2012, when the representatives of the
government of Colombia and those of the FARC-EP signed the «Gene-
ral Agreement for the Termination of the Conflict and the Construction
of a Stable and Lasting Peace», talks between the conflicting parties, in
our opinion, have been purposely taking place too slowly by the FARC-
EP. These conversations have, other than what was pointed out above,
compromised the position of the Colombian government in other areas,
which have forced the government to take action between the application
of the Penal Code to criminal gangs, and the approval of a possible spe-
cial political statute addressed to the members of the guerrillas that lay
down their weapons. These concessions have raised suspicion, and even
an alarm, among the numerous victims of this long lasting struggle.
311
Year 2013
With this situation, and we now chronologically connect with the First
Part of this paper, and with the negotiations regarding the First Point of
the General Agreement closed on May 26, 2013, in other words, of the
«Integral Land Development Policy», the talks in Havana were resumed.
This series of meetings and vacation periods aim to submit the course of
the conversations to the approval of the government of Colombia, and the
guerrilla base members and its leaders. Otherwise, it would be delaying
the final agreement for no reason. In any case, we believe that it is a ques-
tion of following step by step the «game theory» which we mentioned at
the beginning of the first part of our paper; in other words, to the impos-
sible search for the existence of no winners nor losers in the signing of
the final document.
Finally, on November 6, the negotiations ended regarding the subject that
was being discussed at the time, Point 2 of the General Agreement, ca-
lled «Political Participation», whose terms were made public on Sunday,
December 8, in Havana, under the heading «The joint report of the Pea-
ce Talks Table regarding Point 2 of the Agreement», entitled «Political
Participation».
In short, this communiqué states the following:
1. The exercise of politics is not only carried out through the parties
and the electoral process itself, but that it must always count on
the participation of the citizens and social movements. Stated as
such, nothing can be objected to this section, as long as the citizens
run for office through a party or a group; otherwise we would find
ourselves in an assembly process. On the other hand, the increase
of the warp of the social weave of a country is always beneficial to
the citizens.
2. The elaboration and approval of a legal Statute for the exercise
of political opposition is agreed upon. This would lead, we pointed
out, to a reform of the stipulations that regulate the conduct of the
political parties and other organizations in Colombia.
3. There is a need for the existence of an integral security system to
exercise opposition, which requires an adaptation of norms and
institutions, a system of prevention and protection, and of evalua-
tion and follow-up. The demands are understandable up to a point,
in case some of the guerrilla members want to integrate into the
political arena.
4. It is agreed that the official media collaborate in the creation of
a reconciliation, coexistence, tolerance, and non-stigmatization
culture.
5. All parties may be represented in Parliament without the need to
have a minimum number of votes. Plus, finally, the creation of an
312
institutional private television channel, as a means of expression

for the parties, and for the social and gender movements. This last
section is difficult to accomplish in a democratic system where all
the media may participate.
All things considered, these demands from the FARC, as they cannot be
called otherwise, clearly show their lack of trust in the traditional and
conservative political class in Colombia, whom they historically blame for
the lack of real democracy in this American country. On the other hand, as
may be verified, the wording of Point 2 of the General Agreement does not
sufficiently specify the terms of what was agreed, and the wording will,
therefore, have to be negotiated again.
Article 122 of the Colombian Constitution affects the terms of this Agree-
ment, particularly for the electoral process, and specifically in the fo-
llowing paragraph: «cannot be registered as popularly elected candidates
to office….. whoever may have been sentenced for crimes related to te-
rrorist actions….» But, we ask ourselves, and what if those subjects have
been pardoned or pardoned under an amnesty before the elections? This
obstacle was solved, for the moment, on March 9th, when the legislative
elections were held, where no active guerrilla member ran for office.
Finally, on the 20th day of that month of November, 2013, President Juan
Manuel Santos publicly announced his candidature to the presidential
elections to be held on May 25, 2014. The polls during the following mon-
th gave 25% of the votes to Santos, an amount which was insufficient,
and would force holding a second round of the elections, which should
have been held on June 15. In a wise decision on November 27, Miqueria
Rentería and María P. Riveros, experts in female gender issues, joined the
negotiations in Havana on the government side of the table, in order to
contribute their experience to the peace talks at that moment, given the
high index of the Colombian female population, and to the fact that not
few women are members of the FARC.
In search of support, on December 3, Santos Calderón had a meeting with
B. Obama in Washington, during which the U.S. Head of State supported
Santos’ road towards peace in Colombia.
The following day, Santos appeared before the Assembly of the Organi-
zation of American States, where he presented his theory about «transi-
tional justice» (about which we have already spoken), and asked that, in
order to apply it, the Interamerican System of Human Rights, and what
is more difficult, that the International Court of Justice leave the judicial
handling of the peace process in the hands of Colombia. At the same time,
Santos announced that he was holding new contact with the minority
guerrilla group of the National Liberation Army (ELN), in order to also
negotiate peace.
313
Finally, Santos made clear that he would be flexible in the negotiations

regarding the production and commercialization of certain type of drugs,
negotiations which were being carried out in Havana at the moment he
made those declarations. Additionally, Santos’ declarations coincided
with the measures adopted by the States of Colorado and Washington,
on the one hand, and the government of Uruguay, on the other, regar-
ding the consumption of certain type of drugs called soft drugs, namely
marihuana.
It comes as no surprise that on the very same day that Santos transmit-
ted his considerations about «transitional justice» to those international
authorities, the Attorney General of Colombia, the controversial Alejan-
dro Ordóñez, asked the International Court of Justice to control the peace
process in accordance with its own regulations, a discrepancy between
both Colombian politicians which sows obstacles in the peace process.
However, the peace talks were not, in any case, the only subject that arou-
sed the interest of the Colombian citizens at that moment. December 2
was the 20th anniversary of the assassination of Pablo Escobar by the
police. Escobar, the sadly notorious drug trafficker, once declared that
terror had to be sown to force the government to negotiate with him a
certain way of life. Pablo Escobar showed his abilities, beyond delinquen-
cy, by surrounding himself by an aura of benefactor and protector of the
poor, which has created a kind of cult to the «good narco», as seen throu-
gh different popular events held in different parts of Colombia to remem-
ber him, without the apparent acknowledgement of the government.
In addition, on Saturday, December 7, the FARC perpetrated a new attack
in the Cauca, causing 8 deaths between civilians and military personnel,
apparently in response to the capture, the day before, of the prominent
guerrilla member Anderson Yonda Cañas, alias «Pepo», by the govern-
ment forces.
Shortly thereafter, on December 9, the 35th Interparliamentary World
Forum for Peace was held in Bogota, whose participants undoubtedly
supported the peace process, a support that is significant because the
majority of the attendants were from countries in the Americas.
However, that very same day, on the 9th, the controversial Mayor of Bo-
gotá, Gustavo Petro, former guerrilla member of the M-19, who had rea-
ched office as Mayor on January 1, 2012, was politically barred for 15
years by the Attorney General, Alejandro Ordóñez, curiously because of
the embarrassing management of garbage collection in the capital city.
This is not a trivial issue for President Santos, considering the signifi-
cant role that this mayor plays in Colombian politics, as was demonstra-
ted by the fact that shortly after, Gustavo Petro was able to momentarily
hold back that ban.
314
In the meantime, the announcement by the FARC, which was made pu-
blic on December 15, whereby it committed itself to a kind of unilateral
Christmas armed truce for 30 days, was popularly acclaimed. However,
as became evident later, the truce was not meticulously carried out.
On its part, the Catholic church, with the Archbishop of Bogota, Ruben Car-
dinal Salazar as spokesman, did not want, once again and coinciding with
the Christmas period, to leave the terrorist victims aside from what was
happening in Havana, particularly when speaking about the already hi-
ghly announced «transnational justice», which could have probably been
applied to the guerrilla members. Thus, on December 18, he showed his
disagreement with an accord based on a sort of «making a fresh start» at
the expense of the victims.
Fabrizio Hochschild, United Nations representative in Colombia, also took
advantage of the proximity of the Christmas holidays to present his own
campaign in favor of the end of the hostilities, under the motto «Peace is
mine», with images of Teresa of Calcutta and Nelson Mandela.
The President of Ecuador, Rafael Correa, aimed better at the heart of
the negotiations. In declarations made to the media on December 21, he
openly criticized former Colombian President Álvaro Uribe for his mili-
tant stance against the negotiations.
On December 20, at the end of a new round of talks regarding «Illegal
Drugs», and upon the announcement by the negotiators that they would
meet again in Havana on January 13, 2014, the government represen-
tative, Humberto de la Calle, hastened to announce that the progress
made until then was «important and hopeful». Nevertheless, the guerri-
lla members blamed the Government for its interpretation that the fight
against drug trafficking was followed by the forced displacement of some
groups of the population, the impoverishment of many farmers, etc. All
these measures were derived from poor advice, according to the FARC, or,
even worse, imposed by experts from the United States, the main cocaine
importers.
Parrallel to this, the armed struggle continued. On Sunday the 22nd, Pe-
dro Laín Parra Sons, «Jhon 26», second in command of the Frente 53
of the FARC, along with 10 more guerrilla members, died in an air raid,
which was followed by a terrestrial attack from the Colombian armed for-
ces against a campground in the Cubarrial, department of El Meta, with
mountains reaching over 3,000 meters high, in the center of Colombia.
According to government sources, this guerrilla group was dedicated to
raising funds through extortion and drug trafficking. The following day,
8 guerrilla members from the Frente 57 died during another clash in
the Salaqui River near Ríosucio, in the Choco, El Barranco sector, near
the border with Panamá, where they apparently carried out drug traffic-
king-related activities. Needless to say, it didn’t take the guerrillas long
315
to blame the attacks on the support from the CIA, more so because a
few days later Álvaro Uribe unequivocally recognized that the CIA had
collaborated, during his presidential term from 2002 to 2010, in the fight
against different factions of the guerrilla, for example, in the death of
Tomás Medina, alias «Negro Acacio» in 2007, in that of Luis Édgar Devia,
alias «Raúl Reyes» in 2008, the same as in the cases of Guillermo Sánz,
alias «Alonso Cano» in 2009, and of Víctor Suárez, alias «Mono Jojoy» in
2010. However, Uribe forgot to recall that the Minister of Defense at the
time was, precisely, the current President Santos.
That same day, Alejandro Eder Garcis, Director of the Colombian Agency
for the Reintegration, and Presidential Advisor in the Havana talks, decla-
red that his department was ready to welcome the possible demobilized
guerrillas, calculated at 8,000 combatants and over 25,000 auxiliaries.
The cost of the operation would be less expensive, in the words of Eder
himself, and, in short, more efficient than the reinsertion of social or pe-
nal prisoners. The program that the Colombian government planned to
undertake, apparently consisted in giving a monthly economic allowance
to each reinserted guerrilla member, along with an assistance and com-
munity program, somewhat similar to the measures once taken with the
«paramilitary» members.
On the other hand, on the 28th, the already known Fabritzio Hoshchild,
United Nations representative in Colombia, and Roberto De Bernardi, re-
presentative of the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), reported that
the FARC were still recruiting children to integrate them into the armed
struggle, which would additionally mean that the guerrillas were thinking
of continuing with their struggle, behind the back of what may be agreed
upon in Havana. From another point of view, the 31st of December, profes-
sor Alejo Vargas, in his «Ola Política» (www.olapolítica.com), in view of the
ambiguous development of the situation, considered it indispensable to
conclude the peace process «to enter into a processs to reform the Cons-
titution», although he did not specify if it would be to open a constitutional
convention which in political doctrine means something quite different.
Year 2014
In the meantime, the resumption of the peace talks in Havana on January

13 of the new year, regarding the issue of «Illegal Drugs», coincided with
the intensification of the fight against drug trafficking in Mexico. This led
the so-called «popular self-defense» groups in some States, such as in
the State of Michoacán, to temporarily seize the control of the State, on
the fringes of the police force, bringing the rule of law into question.
On the other hand, maybe realizing its dark future, and of what may
be a transfer phenomenon, the coca organizations in Peru placed
316
themselves on a war footing when they saw their subsistence, and

that of many farmers and drug traffickers, in danger, a problem
which should definitely be dealt with by the countries involved, and
not only by Perú.
On the other hand, upon seeing the proximity of the Colombian elections,
the FARC continued putting pressure on the government, within the nego-
tiating game, through declarations and other media tools, which each part
described according to their own point of view as, for example, that voting
for the right, referring to the «uribistas» (Uribe’s supporters), would not
be an option for peace. Furthermore, they made believe that they were af-
ter the creation of a National Constituent Assembly, where the guerrillas
would of course be present, a measure that would put Colombia almost
at the foundation of it as a country again.
The problem was that, once the 30-day truce declared unilaterally by the
FARC was over, the following day, January 16, a soldier was killed in a
guerrilla attack in Medellín.
At the beginning of the year, President Santos travelled to Europe loo-
king for political support and for investments from the European Union
in his country, and to attend the Davos Forum. Previously, on January 22,
he became the star during the «Invest in Colombia Conference», organi-
zed by the newspaper «El País» in Madrid, and where, along with Felipe
González, he made some declarations in which he stated that the Colom-
bian GDP was already at 5%, that unemployment reached only 8.5% of
the population, inflation remained under 2%, and that the new Colombian
middle class is already 27.1%, although Colombia still has a high rate of
inequality, particularly in rural areas, and a serious problem of lack of
public safety.
Santos himself signed an article, on the very same January 22, in the host
newspaper «El País», entitled «To return again», in which he congratula-
ted himself for the fact that Spain had eliminated the requirement of a
visa for Colombians wanting to travel to Spain.
Shortly before that, President Santos, making a show of his Anglo Saxon
education, made some revealing declarations to the same newspaper, in
which he left many open fronts towards the future, and which raised a
certain ambiguity in Europe, to say the least. Thus, for example, regarding
the controversial declarations by President B. Obama to «The New Yor-
ker», on January 20, his fifth anniversary in office, where he unashamedly
said that «marihuana is no more dangerous than alcohol or tobacco»,
President Santos thought about the desideratum of Colombia without
«coca», and about what this measure would mean for many farmers who
live off its growth.
317
Later on, after commenting on former President Álvaro Uribe’s politics,

contrary to the negotiating position of Santos, the current President open-
ly disclosed his doubts about the possibility that the peace negotiations
with the FARC could end before the Colombian elections.
Thus, the planned peace referendum would be delayed, surprisingly till
the possible reelection of Santos, which would lead to an unexpected
situation if the plebiscite results were contrary to the political interests
of Santos himself. We must not forget how truly original it was that the
electoral campaign for the Colombian presidency was coupled with, or
even better, the battle horse for, the peace talks. Álvaro Uribe then had
the opportunity to demonstrate the existing fissures in the negotiations
with the FARC, while Santos showed his negotiating success, as we will
see later.
If all of this were not enough, and according to what President Santos
gave a glimpse of, we find ourselves with the problem of the suspicious
existence of secret clauses in the terms of the Colombian government –
FARC negotiations; it all seems to indicate that, as in any negotiation of
this type, something else is going on behind the scenes, while the victims
of the guerrilla violence fear becoming a bargaining chip.
The words of President Santos in Madrid sowed uncertainty in the as-
sessment of the political analysts because it was not clear how and when
the Colombian population would give or not its approval to the accords,
when they were finally signed; the concept of «transitional justice» is still
an empty idea for the public opinion, particularly for the victims of the
conflict who fear the impunity of the guerrillas, although it seems that it
is a common feeling that peace has a price. Yet, at what price? For whom?
One had to imagine what could happen regarding the peace talks if Pre-
sident Santos lost the elections, and they were won by the supporters of
Álvaro Uribe. Juan Manuel Santos certainly does not lack audacity. He is
carrying on the peace talks simultaneously, and apparently with success,
with an ambitious development program, especially in the rural areas, as
he made clear during his visit to Madrid. Some of these questions were
cleared up, as we will see, after the presidential elections of May 25 and
June 15.
A certain degree of optimism was brought to this scenario by the arti-
cle published in the Colombian newspaper «El Tiempo» on January 25
by General Oscar Naranjo, who was participating in the peace talks in
Havana, and whose elevated political outlook regarding the legislative
elections on March 9, immediately brought the recognition of the entire
social sector of the population. This initiative happened at the same time
as the important step taken by the FARC when they publicly condemned
the attack that one of its groups perpetrated against the town of Pradera,
in the Cauca.
318
In the meantime, the Havana talks regarding «Illicit Drugs» continued, at

the same time that the Colombian government publicly announced that
the National Liberation Army (ELN), with 1,500 members, had shown its
readiness to initiate peace negotiations.
Nevertheless, the climate of understanding between the government of
Colombia and the guerrilla groups suffered a hard blow when the Co-
lombian magazine «Semana» published on Tuesday, March 4, that, from
offices located in Bogota that belonged to the Colombian Armed Forces
intelligence service, there were wire-tapping and tracking activities of
the negotiating members of the government who were carrying out their
work in Havana. The FARC negotiators soon felt they were also being
spied on. The accusing sources immediately addressed themselves to
Álvaro Uribe and to their high-rank military contacts contrary about the
way the peace talks were being carried out; shortly after, the President of
Colombia rushed to announce that he had given no orders in that respect,
and furthermore, that he himself had been a victim of the wire-tapping
and tracking. For the moment, the serious incident ended up with the
dismissal, as it usually happens in these cases, of some of the military
chiefs. At the same time, the head of the Armed Forces, General Juan
Pablo Ramírez, was quick to make his total agreement with the policies
of President Santos perfectly clear.
The peace negotiations and the legislative elections of March 9
Close to the legislative elections, the Havana negotiators continued dis-

cussing the «Illegal Drugs». The first thing we must highlight is the good
climate in which the elections were held, something unusual in that part
of the world; however, following we must point out that the number of
people who went to the polls was scant, in spite of what was at stake for
the Colombians on this occasion. We do not know if this was a demonstra-
tion of the lack of interest on the part of the people of Colombia, or a lack
of an attractive political option, or simply despair.
Results of the elections to the Senate 100 seats)
-Partido de la Unidad Nacional, of President Santos, 15. 58%
(National Unity Party)
-Partido de Centro Democrático, of Álvaro Uribe, 14.29%
(Center Democratic Party)
-Partido Conservador, of Marta Rodríguez Blanco, 13.58%
(Conservative Party)
-Partido Liberal, of Simón Gaviria 13.58%
319
(Liberal Party)
House of Representatives (163 members)
-Partido de la Unidad Nacional, 16.5%
(National Unity Party)
-Partido Liberal, 14.13%
(Liberal Party)
-Partido Conservador, 13.17%
(Conservative Party)
-Partido de Centro Democrático, 9.47%
(Center Democratic Party)
-Abstention, 56%
These elections reinforce the position of President Santos, although they
place his political adversary, former President Álvaro Uribe as head of
the opposition in the Senate.
Nevertheless, and in the opinion of this analyst, President Santos showed
his political skills when, immediately after the elections, he called on A.
Uribe to favor unity. Behind this call, there could have also been Santos’
suspicions of what we could call «sabre-rattling» within the Colombian
Armed Forces, revealed as a consequence of the scandals of the wire-ta-
pping of the peace negotiators, other dignitaries, and of President Santos
himself, which we have already mentioned, by the intelligence service,
and the stir caused among a number of chiefs of the Armed Forces, su-
pporters, more than of Álvaro Uribe, of the idea that the peace talks may
be carried out through other means, considering the alleged responsi-
bilities of some military chiefs acquired during the counter-guerrilla
struggle.
If Santos, on the one hand, wanted to carry on the peace talks according
to his ideas, he knew, on the other hand, that he could not neglect the
dissatisfied military flank, linked to Álvaro Uribe, nor the political flank of
his left-wing coalition, all of which could make his projects fall through.
As happens in «Game Theory», which leads us throughout this paper,
the other part of the negotiators, in other words, the FARC, did not waste
the opportunity to take advantage of the political moment, and thus, their
spokesman in Havana, Jesus Emilio Carvajalino («Andrés París») has-
tened to declare in the Colombian newspaper «El Tiempo» on March 15
that the results from the recent elections open the way to a constitutional
process that will lead to the application of transitional justice. A similar
path was taken by Jeffrey Donaldson, Irish Member of Parliament from
320
the Democratic Unionist Party, arbitrator on his own initiative, who, on

March 16 and to the same newspaper, declared he favored a sort of «ma-
king a fresh start» similar to what, according to him, happened during the
conflict in Ulster and in World War II. We find these declarations rather
unfortunate. Paula Gaviria, President of Unity for the Attention and Inte-
gral Reparation of the victims of the conflict in Colombia, does not share
his opinion, and has called to «not forget» those who have suffered the
consequences of the clashes.
More so when, on Sunday, March 23, upon the assassination of two po-
lice officers in the southeast of the country, the Colombian government
and the Colombian Office of the United Nations High Commission for Hu-
man Rights outright condemned the assassinations, as it could not be
otherwise.
Apart from that, in addition to Álvaro Uribe, another former president,
Andrés Pastrana (1998-2002), has recently appeared in the political are-
na. Pastrana traveled to Madrid to launch his book «Memorias Olvidadas»
(«Forgotten Memoirs»), an account of the peace processes that have taken
place until now. More specifically, in an interview to «El País» on March
25, he recalled that when he was President, he proposed the creation of a
«goodwill area» in Colombian territory, where the FARC could freely carry
out their activities. As expected, this solution did not satisfy anyone. Pas-
trana was more accurate during his intervention when he recognized that
drug trafficking had seriously infiltrated into politics and into the life of
the citizens in Colombia; and also that the guerrilla is currently the most
important drug trafficking cartel in the world. Pastrana coincides with
this analyst in that the solution to this and to other problems consists
mainly in solving the social, corruption, health, and education problems
that are plaguing Colombia and other American countries.
The peace talks and the Presidential elections
It was inevitable that the peace talks would «sneak» into the campaign
for the presidential elections which had to be held on May 25 as per the
Constitution. Or, better yet, that the leitmotiv of the elections revolved
around the peace negotiations.
At such an early date as April 23, the political media commented on the
rumor that the future configuration of the Colombian Armed Forces and
their constitutional role was being discussed in Havana. This subject was
sensitive in itself, and because the conservative influence during the pe-
riod of Álvaro Uribe as President of the Republic is still in the minds of
the Armed Forces.
The government negotiators rapidly forestalled the rumors and, as if that
were not enough, on May 3 it was the Minister of Defense himself, Juan
321
Carlos Pinzón, who publicly declared that the Colombian Armed Forces
were not subject to negotiation, even more if the fact that two of the go-
vernment negotiators, Jorge Enrique Mora and Oscar Naranjo, were two
well-renowned generals in the Colombian army, were taken into account.
On the other hand, the now Senator and former President Álvaro Uribe,
always omnipresent in Colombian politics, who has a large number of
supporters among the right wing of the country, although, during his pre-
sidency, he tried hard to negotiate peace with the guerrilla groups, was
now reticent with the terms of the negotiations that President Santos was
carrying forward, specifically regarding the apparent opening of a consti-
tutional process, and what is now known as «transitional justice».
President Santos, by greatly focusing his policies around the peace talks
with the guerrilla groups, risked his future reelection by putting it in the
hands of the guerrillas. In contrast, if the FARC wanted to show the Co-
lombian citizens that their desire for peace was real, it was expected that
the negotiations would not be delayed by them.
In this social and political climate, the elections for President of the Re-
public were held on Sunday, May 25. Over 47 million Colombians, distri-
buted throughout 32 Departments in the country, plus the district of Bo-
gota, who live in 1,120 municipalities, had to choose among the following
candidates: (for more details, read the article «Presidential elections in
Colombia 2014» by this author, IEEE (Spanish Institute of Strategic Stu-
dies), June 20, 2014).
Candidates
• Clara López Obregón, of Partido Democracia Alternativa (Alternative
Democracy Party), united to Partido Unión Patriótica (Patriotic Unity
Party), of socialist tendency.
• Enrique Peñalosa Londoño, of Partido Alianza Verde (Green Alliance
Party), from the center left.
• Marta Ramírez Blanco, of Partido Conservador (Conservative Party).
• Juan Manuel Santos Calderón, of Partido de Unidad Nacional (Natio-
nal Unity Party), center-liberal.
• Óscar Zuluaga Escobar, of Partido Centro Democrático (Center De-
mocratic Party), center-right.
The polls forecast a technical tie between Zuluaga’s supporters with their
hard line against the guerrillas, and those who desired the peace that
Santos was negotiating, without still knowing for sure the terms of the
negotiations.
The FARC, as expected, opted for Santos, using the procedure that was
closest to them, and on May 16, nine days before the elections, they
provided the joint publication with the government representatives of a
communiqué announcing that an understanding had been reached in Ha-
322
vana regarding the point of «General Agreement» that dealt with «Ille-
gal Drugs», whereby the FARC committed themselves to stopping drug
trafficking activities, in order to consider, in the future, illegal drugs as a
public health problem.
The communiqué is lengthy and a bit dense, and its title is conceived in
the following terms: «We have reached an agreement regarding the four-
th point of the Agenda included in the «General agreement for the end of
the conflict and the construction of a stable and lasting peace», third in
discussion, called «Solution to the problem of illegal drugs».
Among other things, it is recognized that the consumption of drugs en-
tails a problem that affects public health, although «the recognition of
traditional ancestral uses of the coca leaf, as part of the cultural identity
of the indigenous community should be maintained», without specifying
other aspects of the problem.
As the FARC are not a totally united front, and they reach agreements in
a supposedly assembly manner, it is expected that the mentioned accord
is to be followed also by the guerrilla groups that operate in the coca
growing areas. Neither do we know at this stage of the negotiations what
may happen, when the time of peace comes, to the guerrillas accused of
drug trafficking, whose extradition was requested by the United States.
After these last news, the international support for the peace talks beca-
me more visible, now coming from the United Nations Secretary General,
Ban Ki-Moon, from the Secretary General of the Organization of American
States, José Miguel Insulza, and from the European Union itself. At the
same time, Santos’ rivals hastened to declare that «the FARC had entered
the electoral campaign».
Some former presidents of Colombia did not hesitate to give their opinion
publicly, as in the case of Andrés Pastrana to the newspaper «El Mun-
do» on May 18, where he held that all the presidential candidates would
have had to participate in the Havana talks. This participation would have
been difficult however you look at it, and impossible to coordinate, to have
everyone be able to understand each other, in the face of so many dis-
parate voices. Pastrana, more realistically, asked himself if Colombians
would be willing to pardon, after half a century of confrontations, and
such a high number of victims; and we add: only the Colombians have the
answer.
Close to Election Day, the polls insisted in forecasting a technical tie be-
tween Santos and Zuluaga, between 24% and 29%. If the electoral cam-
paign had almost come to a close, it was not so abroad because on the
very day, May 25, the newspaper «El Mundo» published an interview with
Santos, where, among other things, he declared that his intention was «to
change the bullets into votes, and violence into scenarios for democra-
323
cy», and that he even planned on admitting into Parliament those guerri-
lla members who wanted to create a constitutional political party.
Once the electoral recount was finished, and according to the data from
the National Electoral Registry of Colombia, the voting results were the
following:
Electoral results %
-Óscar Iván Zuluaga 29,25
-Juan Manuel Santos Calderón 25,60
-Marta Lucía Martínez Blanco 15,52
-Clara López Obregón 15,23
-Enrique Peñalosa Londoño 8,28
Absentee votes 60,28
28 Blank votes 5,99
Considering there was no clear winner, the stakes were still high between
Zuluaga and Santos for a mandatory second round, which would be held
on June 15. The central issue, of course, would again be the negotiations
with the FARC. That is how the candidates faced it, raising the tone of
their speeches: Zuluaga attacking the negotiations, and Santos presen-
ting them as a hope for peace.
It was also shown that the vote in the big cities tended to favor Zuluaga,
while in the countryside, which has directly suffered the actions of the
guerrilla, of the «paramilitary» groups, and of the Colombian Armed For-
ces, clearly there was a desire for peace, although the many farmers who
struggle to make ends meet, subject to coca growing, had their doubts
about their future.
The second electoral round
The second round was held almost on personal grounds between Santos
and Zuluaga. Both candidates looked for the support of the losing parties
and, while Santos obtained that of the leftist group and even the support
from former President César Gaviria; former President Andrés Pastrana
bet for Zuluaga.
«Face to Face» broadcast on the Caracol Television Network, on Thurs-
day, May 5, with each one of the candidates firmly defending their already
known positions regarding the peace negotiations, was not of major inte-
rest, as the polls reflected; while DATEXCO suggested that Santos would
be the winner, GALLUP gave the presidency to Zuluaga.
324
Meanwhile, the negotiations continued in Havana, and if on May 3, both

negotiating parties had announced as if it were not enough, on Sunday,
May 7, they made public a communiqué about the victims of the conflict in
order to begin negotiations regarding Point 5. The contents, due to its len-
gth and ambiguity, look to please the civilian victims and the ones among
the guerrilla groups during the so-called «dirty war». Zuluaga waited no
longer to accuse Santos of electoral opportunism.
Still on Tuesday, May 10, President Santos, from the Palace of Nariño,
solemnly announced the beginning of the negotiations with Nicolás Ro-
dríguez Bautista, alias «Gabino», head of the National Liberation Army
(ELN).
In the light of Santos’ electoral offensive, the day before Zuluaga declared
to «El Mundo» that, should he be elected President, he would continue
backing the negotiations in Havana, although with a reconsideration of
its bases.
The voting on Sunday, May 15, took place in a high degree of calm, under
the armed truce declared by the FARC and the ELN, and had the following
results:
Electoral results %
-Juan Manuel Santos 50,9%
-Óscar Iván Zuluaga 45%
Absentee votes reached 53%
Blank votes 4%
In his first words to the media, after the results of the voting were an-
nounced, Santos spoke of the opportunity to put into effect the former
constitutional ban by which presidents could not run for a second term,
and to prolong the terms in office to 5 or 6 years.
Likewise, he implicitly recognized that it was necessary to rebuild a
consensus because almost half of the voters chose Zuluaga, and many
others had abstained.
Along the same lines, the President, in declarations to «El País» on June
18, recognized that «the key to reach peace in Colombia lies in knowing
how much justice can be sacrificed to secure peace», referring to the
so-called «transitional justice».
The Vice-President of the United States, Joe Biden, arrived in Colombia
that same day, as a clear expression of his government’s support to the
new Colombian President.
However, the seemingly delay maneuvers, already far from «Game
Theory» that we dealt with in this paper, certainly do not seem strange,
325
to the point that President Santos as well as the FARC seem to be using
them now in the peace talks. A certain suspicion regarding this issue was
present at the meeting held in Cartagena de Indias on June 30, under the
title «Third Road Conference, economic and social progress», with the
attendance of former presidents Clinton, Cardoso (Brazil), Lagos (Chile),
Felipe González, and Tony Blair. This analyst heard the rumor that the for-
mer presidents strongly urged President Santos privately to accelerate
the peace talks.
Thus, a bit later, specifically on July 10, Luis Alberto Albán Burbano («Mar-
cos León Calarcá»), known leader of the FARC, stated, on Radio Santa Fe,
his doubts about the end of the conflict, questioning the negotiating ho-
nesty of President Santos.
On July 15, the negotiations in Havana were resumed, with the attendan-
ce of representatives of the victims of the conflict.
In the speeches that were heard on July 20, at the annual opening of the
Colombian Parliament, the only subject that was really interesting to the
speakers was, without a doubt, the peace talks. The same thing happened
on August 7, the day on which President Santos was sworn into office for
a new term.
In this situation, on August 12, a representation of the victims caused
by this conflict, now over fifty years long, arrived in Havana to somehow
participate in the peace talks, as agreed by both parties. As could be ex-
pected, discrepancies came up about whether the newly arrived people
really represented the victims.
Furthermore, a few days later, on August 21, a Technical Committee of hi-
gh-ranking Colombian military officials also arrived in the island to study
the procedures for turning over the weapons by the FARC. The reaction
of the representatives of the FARC seemed to indicate that the govern-
ment of Colombia adopted this measure in order to prevent a certain, or
possible, malaise among the highest-ranking military officers due to the
course of the negotiations, without forgetting what this means as a poli-
tical gesture from President Santos toward his opponents, particularly
toward Álvaro Uribe.
To September 1, the discussion about «truth, justice, reparation to the vic-
tims, the non-repetition of armed conflicts, etc.» still continues in Havana.
The international outlook could not have been nor can it be more favora-
ble to the Colombian peace process.
326
The meeting of the Latin American and Caribbean States Community (CE-
LAC), made up of 33 States, although this time El Salvador and Panama
did not attend, held on January 28 and 29 of 2014 in Havana, served to
stage the support from the member countries to the peace process for
Colombia. At the same time, CELAC was able to put into contact the repre-
sentatives from Peru and Chile, after the sentence without right of appeal
from the International Court of Justice at the Hague regarding the his-
torical issue of terrestrial and maritime borders between the two coun-
tries, announced on January 27. On the other hand, the CELAC meeting
gave Fidel Castro the opportunity to appear again before the cameras,
together with political figures of the continent, such as Cristina Kirchner,
Dilma Rousseff, etc. The Brazilian President also took the opportunity to
announce that her country will build one of the biggest container termi-
nals in America, in the Cuban port of Mariel, thus showing the strength of
Brazil in spite of the poor economic news that were spreading about her
country, or precisely for that reason.
Shortly after, during the last two weeks in February, the meeting of the
Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR) was held in Caracas, and who-
se members are: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Venezuela, and
Bolivia, and as associate members, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Guya-
na, and Suriname. It was just one more of those forums that exist in that
area, and whose sessions were previously livened up by the enthusiastic
Uruguayan President José Mújica who also showed his support to the
peace process in Colombia.
The 8th Summit of the Pacific Alliance, held in Cartagena de Indias on
February 10, 11 and 12, with the presence of Colombia, Mexico, Chile,
Peru, and the final incorporation of Costa Rica, also declared support to
the peace talks being held in Havana.
Only the instability that Venezuela is suffering casts a shadow on the
American horizon at this moment.
However, it is not only the countries in that area that show their interest
for what is happening in America and, specifically, in Colombia; it seems
that, among many others, whether for solidarity or for economic inte-
rests, a race to get somewhere before others may have been triggered.
The European Union has initiated a clear approach to Cuba, whose Pre-
sident, an aged Raúl Castro, is taking, step by step, some measures to
liberalize the regime, always with the support of Vice President, Miguel
Díaz-Canel, an emerging political figure of Asturian origin; a country,
Cuba, in search of international support, as shown by its last movements
(Colombian peace talks, the CELAC meeting, etc.).
On the other hand, we must reach due conclusions from the warm gree-
ting that President B. Obama gave a surprised Raúl Castro, during the
327
ceremony held in South Africa on the passing away of Nelson Mandela

in December of 2013. That should not surprise observers, considering
China’s political and economic movements, a country which comes closer
and closer to America through the Pacific Ocean, and that is estimated
will be the second largest buyer in that area in 2016, after the United
States, and before the European Union.
China is a country which maintains underway its Project to open a new
maritime communication canal between the Pacific and the Atlantic
Oceans, through the lagoons in Nicaragua, and a dry railroad canal that
would cross the Colombian isthmus, precisely now that widening works
of the first Panama Canal are being undertaken. One should not forget
the Brazilian efforts, with foreign capital, to communicate, by means of
inter-oceanic roads, the basin of the Amazon River with the Pacific Ocean,
through Bolivia and Ecuador (projects that we had the opportunity to dis-
cuss in «Geopolitical Overview of Conflicts 2012» Spanish Institute of Stra-
tegic Studies. 2013).
If that were not enough, on July 16 and 17, the emerging countries that
make up the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), met in
Brazil, and they certainly showed their support for the peace process in
Colombia.
Meanwhile, another great power such as Russia is «entertained» with the
game with its former satellites, who move among a real independence,
the European Union, and the distrust, and even the attraction towards its
former mother country. Could the case of Ukraine be repeated in other
countries like Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, meaning a more ample exit
for Russia to the Baltic Sea?. On their part, the Arab countries, who had
initiated fairly recently a timid commercial approach to the American
subcontinent, are now going through a tragic process of identification.
Instability in the Middle East, of an economic and religious (between Sun-
nis and Shiites) nature, which has led, for the first time, and this is a very
significant fact, the United States to decide to send a warning to Saudi
Arabia against the economic aid that some of the Royalty members lend
to jihadists.
Without reaching a categorical pessimism, we can say, borrowing a term

used by Zygmunt Baumant in «Culture in the world of liquid modernity»
that the political and social situation in Colombia could not be more like
a «carbonated drink» regarding the route and the final results of the-
se negotiations. If, on the one hand, President Santos is willing to take
the so-called «transitional justice» to its limits, under the principle «how
much justice can be sacrificed in order to secure peace?», the FARC know
328
they cannot miss this opportunity to finally be able to participate in the

Colombian political arena because they realize they will not be able to win
this «war». From that point to the idea that the Colombian people might
accept making a fresh start just like that, there is a long way.
Chronology of the negotiations
2010, November. President Santos contacts a businessman from Valle

del Cauca searching a link with the FARC.
2011, January. Guillermo León Sáenz («Alfonso Cano»), the then highest
chief of the FARC, approves the secret contacts with the government.
2011, February-October. President Santos speaks with Raúl Castro to get
his support for the future negotiations.
2011, November 4. «Alfonso Cano» dies in a skirmish with the Armed
Forces; his successors are Rodrigo Londoño Echeverri «Timochenco»
and «Timoleón Jiménez».
2011, December; 2012, January. «Timochenco» indicates the interest of
the FARC to continue their contact with the government.
2012, January. The first meeting between the government envoy, Alejan-
dro Eder, and the guerrilla members Rodrigo Granda «Ricardo Téllez»
and Jesús Emilio Carvajalino «Andrés Paris» is held in Río de Oro, De-
partment of César
2012, February. After a meeting in Barines (Venezuela), the decision of
choosing Cuba and Norway as guarantors of the talks is taken.
2012, February 23. The first meeting between the government represen-
tatives and the FARC is held in Cuba.
2012, August 26. The «General Agreement for the end of the conflict and
the construction of a stable and lasting peace» is signed in Havana.
2012, October 18. Humberto de La Calle, on behalf of the government, and
Luciano Marín Arango «Iván Márquez), on behalf of the FARC, sit at the
negotiations table in Oslo.
2012, November 19. The negotiations begin in Havana.
2013, May 26. End of the negotiations regarding the first point of the
Agreement, «Policy for the Integral Land Development».
2013, November 6. End of the negotiations about the second point of the
Agreement, «Political participation».
2014, March 9. Legislative elections.
329
2014, May 16. End of the negotiations about the fourth point of the Agree-
ment, «Solution to the problem of illegal drugs».
2014, May 25. Presidential elections.
2014, June 7. Joint communiqué from the table for peace. «Declaration of
principles for the discussion of Point 5 of the Agenda regarding «Victims
of the conflict.»
2014, June 15. Presidential elections, second round. Winner, Juan Manuel
Santos Calderón.
2014, August 7. Santos Calderón swears office as President of the
Republic.
2014, September 1. The peace talks are resumed in Havana.
Bibliography
Bauman, Zygmunt. «La cultura en el mundo de la modernidad». («Culture in
the world of modernity»). Fondo de Cultura Económica. Buenos Aires
2013.
Benítez Ávila, D. «El largo camino hacia la paz». («The long road to peace»)
Antena Misionera, January 2014.
CELAC (Comunidad de Estados Latinoamericanos y Caribeños) (Commu-
nity of Latin American and Caribbean States) www.celac.gob.ve Actas
de la reunión de La Habana, del 28 y 29 de enero de 2014. Minutes of
the meeting in Havana on January 28 and 29, 2014
Cúneo, M. and Gascó, Em. «Crónicas del estallido. Viaje a los movimientos
sociales que cambiaron América Latina». («Chronicles of the outbreak.
Journey to the social movements that changed Latin America»), Icaria.
Barcelona 2013.
MERCOSUR (Mercado Común Suramericano) (South American Common
Market) www.mercosur.int Actas de la reunión de Caracas, febrero de
2014. (Minutes of the meeting in Caracas, February, 2014)
Mesa de Conversaciones para la paz en Colombia. (Table of peace talks in
Colombia) Documentos y Comunicados. (Documents and Communi-
qués) www.mesadeconversaciones.com.co
Obama, B. «The New Yorker» (declarations), January 19, 2014.
Santos Calderón, J.M. «Para volver a volver», («To return again») «El País»,
January 22, 2014.
Santos Calderón, J.M. Comparecencia pública en el Casino de Madrid,
dentro de la «Jornada invertir en Colombia», (Public appearance at
the Casino de Madrid during the «Invest in Colombia Forum»). January
22, 2014.
330
Santos Calderón, J.M. Declaraciones a Javier Moreno en El País», (Decla-

rations to Javier Moreno in «El Pais») January 18, 2014.
Serrano Monteavaro, M.A. «El proceso de paz en Colombia», en «Panora-
ma Geopolítico de los Conflictos 2013» («The peace process in Colom-
bia», in «Geopolitical Overview of Conflicts 2013») Spanish Institute
of Strategic Studies, Madrid 2014.
«Elecciones presidenciales en Colombia 2014». («Presidential elections in
Colombia 2014»). Spanish Institute of Strategic Studies. June 19, 2014.
Vargas Velásquez, A. «Augurios para 2014». («Predictions for 2014») «Ola
Política» www.olapolitica.com, January 2014.
«Debemos entrar en un proceso reformista de la Constitución de 1991».
(«We should start a process to reform the Constitution of 1991») «Ola
Política» www.olapolitica.com, January 2014.
«Drogas ilícitas: ¿qué se puede lograr en La Habana?». («Illegal drugs: what
can be achieved in Havana?») OlaPolítica www.olaplitica.com, January
2014.
Vargas Velásquez and others, «La Administración de la Defensa como
Política Pública en Iberoamérica. El caso colombiano», (The Defense Ad-
ministration as public policy in Latin America. The Colombian case»),
IUGM (University Institute Gutierrez Mellado).
(For daily follow-up):
(EFE News Agency, «El Mundo», «El País», «El Tiempo» (Bogotá), Cadena
Caracol (Colombia). 2013-2014.
331
Embers of the division of the indian subcontinent: Chapter
Assam, Manipur and Nagaland. twelve
María José Izquierdo Alberca
Summary
The states of Assam, Nagaland and Manipur have for decades maintained
an insurgency which produces frequent episodes of violence, and which
is sustained through confrontation with the government of India along the
borders of their territory. The demand for independence has evolved into
a struggle for States of ethnic exclusivity. The rejection of the Moslem po-
pulation and the clashes of the groups, both among themselves and with
the security forces, has submerged the people of the Indian northeast in
a climate of permanent insecurity.
Key words:
Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, India, territorial claim, insurgency, indige-

nous tribes, population security.
333
Embers of the division of the indian subcontinent...
Introduction
It is not easy to present in a few pages the complexity of affairs of a coun-

try like India. Its historic trajectory is one of the most fascinating of the
twentieth century and its interest lies not only in the process of its inde-
pendence, but in the enormous effort to unify-- not homogenize—a terri-
tory of extreme wealth and diversity where mingle a mosaic of groups:
ethnic, social, religious, linguistic and cultural. Its population of over
1.023 billion inhabitants, a fifth of that of the entire planet, plus the mul-
ticultural dimension of the country make what is considered the world’s
largest democracy a unique case.
After the end of the Cold War and with the economic and political resur-
gence of the Asia-Pacific area, India has come to play a prominent in-
ternational role. Today it forms part, together with Brazil, Russia, China
and South Africa, of the BRICS group of nations. Nonetheless, and in spite
of undeniable advances and economic development, great economic and
social inequalities continue to exist. The 2014 United Nations report on
human development so states when it underlines as achievements of the
country the increase in industrialization and its efforts in education poli-
cy.1 India has managed to overcome the mid-twentieth-century famines
and its different governments have assumed a judicial commitment to
guarantee the right to nourishment in a time of climate change. Its anti-
hunger policies are considered an example for the rest of the world and
are so presented by the United Nations in relation to the challenge «Zero
Hunger».2 However, the impossibility of eliminating in practice and in its
totality the caste system; the corruption reported; the worldwide rise of
fundamentalism; and the permanent ethnic conflicts within the State,
may hamper the advance of social development.
The Indian State, like the construction of all the great nation-states, runs
the risk, in the era of globalization, of being dangerously reduced to the
cultural fiction of a single ethnic group if the conflicts of identity and vio-
lent nationalism occupy the space of national security.3
From the political-administrative point of view India is a parliamentary re-
public of a federal type constituted upon the union of 29 states plus seven
annexed territories.4 Since its independence from British rule in 1947 it
has achieved outstanding economic development, and yet, this immense
country stands upon a series of difficulties and contradictions inherited
1
Report on Human Development 2014. U.N. Program for Development, New York.
2014. Available at Website. http://hdr.undp.org.
2
Report on Human Development 2014, op.cit., p. 54.
3
APPADURAI, Arjun. The Rejection of Minorities. An Essay on the Geography of Fury.
Barcelona: Tusquets, 2007, pp. 38-39.
4
The last state to arise was Telegarana, in 2013.
335
from the subdivision which followed its constitution. Some of these are of
a border nature, others religious and all are of a social nature. In fact, in
India, the problems of linguistic and religious identity are superimposed
on the economic problems. From among the social contradictions, one
especially, that which produces sexual violence against girls and women,
undermines and does extraordinary damage to the discourse on moder-
nity and democracy that the government wishes to sell as the image of
the country, and places India in the headlines of the international press
with great frequency. Other conflicts, such as those which the population
of the northeast have been suffering from for decades, have a lesser echo
in the international press, but produce a constant stream of victims and
the impression that in Assam, Manipur and Nagaland a political solution
to the conflicts is not an easy task.
Cultural heterogeneity: the ethnic question at the base of the conflicts.
Within the enormous extension of Indian territory, 3,287,590 km2, more

than 1650 languages are spoken, of which the Constitution only recogni-
zes 22. From among these, those which stand out for their greater use are
Hindi, English, Bengali, Telegu, Marati, Tamil, Urdu, Gujarati,Malayalam,
Kannada, Oriya, Punjabi, Assamese, Kashmiri, Sindhi, and Sanscrit. Al-
though the official language is Hindi, English enjoys a special status and
extensive use in the communication media and in advanced education.
Regarding religion, there are six groups differentiated by creed: Hindus,
Moslems, Christians, Sikhs, Jainists and Buddhists. Some 8.2% of its peo-
336
ple are considered indigenous population.5 The Adivasi (literally, «indige-

nous peoples») make up more than 461 ethnic groups.6 The most impor-
tant concentration of indigenous population is found in the seven states
in the northeast of the country and in what is labelled the «central tribal
cordon», extending from Rajastan to Bengal.
For a number of years, policies of support and positive discrimination
have undergone development for the minorities.7 The measures of su-
pport for these castes and ethnic groups generate permanent tension
between individualism and ethnicity which is at the base of every domes-
tic political debate in India. The domestic political scene thus appears to
be marked by tension between Hindus and Moslems, but also between
Moslems and minority tribal groups and even among the tribal groups
themselves.
It is unanimously considered that these conflicts have their roots in the
territorial restructuring which took place both during the colonial era and
in the postcolonial. The colonial legacy undid a scenario which establi-
shed barriers between peoples, regions and tribes, and replaced it with
one of its own design. The architecture prior to British domination and
which established the territories where for years the Naga, Kuki, Meitei
and Bodo peoples lived, was dismantled and in its place were erected
other separation walls in the form of international frontiers. Today, these
lines of division run the danger of exploding and perpetuating the con-
flicts of northeast India.8
The other hot spot with regard to India is caused by the proximity of Pa-
kistan. The constitution of the Indian nation-state in 1947 was carried out
after a political partition which created Pakistan as a refugee State for
the Moslems who lived in the territory dominated by Great Britain. From
1947 to 1973 the partition mapped a scenario where India was flanked by
Western Pakistan and Eastern Pakistan. In 1973, the latter became inde-
pendent and gave rise to a new country, Bangladesh. The whole process
of dismembering, creation of new countries, confrontation with Pakistan
and the insoluble crisis of Kashmir have gradually built an identification
of Moslem citizens of India with Pakistan, the principal enemy, which is
leading India into a secular crisis.9
5
International Working Group on Indigenous Peoples, Anuario 2014. Available at web-
site: http://www.iwgia.org.
6
This figure only includes officially recognized tribes and excludes a good number of
minorities.
7
BORREGUERO, Eva. Democracy in India. Tendencies and Perspectives of a Multicul-
tural Nation. Documentos Cidob 94. Available at website: www.codob.org.
8
KNONGREIWOT, Rammathot: Understanding the Histories of Peoples on the Margins:
A Critique of «Northeast India’s Durable Disorder».Alternatives, vol. 34, 2009, p. 451.
9
Appadurai, op. cit., p. 88.
337
In India, minority rights have undergone a long trajectory of actions and

litigation as to the role of the State, the limits of religion, civil rights and
compensatory actions for these groups. One of these measures is the
recognition of registered, or «scheduled», tribes or castes (ST-SC), which
establishes a variable reserve of jobs within the public administration.
This was a solution already adopted during the British period, as the first
caste register was set up in 1935.10 Later, in 1951, a new category was
created to include tribes as well.11 As far back as 1980 a report was pre-
sented proposing a reserve of jobs for those castes considered victims of
historic discrimination and which for some scholars is at the root of the
rise of Hindu nationalism.
With respect to indigenous minorities, and in spite of the favorable vote
of India’s government on the United Nation’s Declaration of the Rights of
Indigenous Peoples (2007), Delhi did not consider that the contents of this
Declaration were applicable to India, so that her pertinent legislation is
unsatisfactory and incomplete.
In this respect, a multitude of legislative proposals have been passed or
have failed. Among the most recent, there stands out the 117th amend-
ment to the Constitution, presented as a response to the repeated comp-
laints of violations of the land rights of tribes. Nonetheless, of the 30,968
vacancies identified as reserved for minorities, only 18,000 were filled.12
Another pending item is the passing of a bill to protect farmers from be-
ing evicted from lands acquired in the ethnic areas.
The Constitution establishes the non-interference of the State in religious
affairs, as well as rejecting any claims made which are based on matters
of faith. However, after the creation of Pakistan as an Islamic State, the
150 million Moslems living in India have maintained within their com-
munities the Islamic laws, as an argument for the defense of a minority
identity. An unequal situation has thus been created, in such a way that
confrontations between Hindus and Moslems, far from having been sett-
led, reappear periodically and have increased in recent years. It is usually
said that among the much-admired Indian middle class, no Moslems are
to be found. The recent 2014 elections gave the victory to a representative
of Hindu nationalism, Narenda Modi, a follower of Hindutva, the radical
Hinduist thought, which may imply a risk for the achievement of a verte-
brate and non-exclusive State.
As Masferrer points out, in spite of the Ghandian stereotype, the contra-
dictions between the secular State and the religious communities make
10
Scheduled castes (SC).
11
Scheduled tribes (ST).
12
Anuario 2014, op. cit.
338
India a very violence-prone nation.13 Since 1947 it has gone through two
border wars with China; constant confrontations with Pakistan over Kas-
hmir;14 a state of emergency from 1975 to 1977; a pseudo-dictatorial pe-
riod in 1975 under Indira Ghandi; harsh episodes of communal violence
after her assassination in 1984; the destruction of mosques, as in Babur
in 1992; slaughter as in Gujarat in 2002; assaults on Parliament in 2001
and other major assaults on it in 2006 and 2008 in Bombay; low-intensity
but long-lasting confrontations in the northeast of the country; and with
Naxalite groups15 in at least 83 districts of the country.16
In today’s India a number of security problems persist. The presence of a
far-left insurgency has increased in recent years. There is evidence poin-
ting to groups of Pakistanis giving support to cells in India; and security
is still very unreliable in Kashmir. The same holds for the northeast, es-
pecially in Assam, where attacks and confrontations between Bodos and
Moslems have not ceased.
Finally, it remains to point out that the current situation is very different
from that of years ago, when Sonia Ghandi, an Italian Catholic, had won
the previous elections and working together in the government were a
Moslem President, Abdul Kalam, and a Sikh Prime Minister, Manmohan
Singh. At the present time, the jihadist expansion in the Middle Eastern
environment and the marked nationalist character of the new Prime mi-
nister, Narendra Modi, make an intensification of conflicts with the Mos-
lems foreseeable,17 if there is not a turnaround in the policies of proximity
and a step forward towards resolving the conflicts with the states of the
northeast.
The Northeast of India is not a very extensive territory, but is one of great
geopolitical importance. Joined to the rest of the country by the 21-km.
Siliguri corridor, it was the scene of the 1962 war between China and
India. It consists of 7 states: Assam (which holds more than 70% of the to-
tal population of the region), Meghalaya, Tripura, Manipur, Nagaland, and
Arunachal Pradesh. Each of them shares at least one international bor-
13
MASFERRER, Bernat. «Political Violence and Terrorism in Contemporary India».
Asia-Pacific Anuario, No. 1, 2006, p.221.Available at website: http://www.cidob.org.
14
DIAZ SILVELA, Enrique; VACAS, Félix. The India-Pakistan Conflict. Madrid: Ministry
of Defense, 2006.
15
CARO, Maria Jose. «India.The Naxalite Insurgency.» In Geopolitical Overview of Con-
flicts. Ministry of Defense, 2013. pp 303-328.
16
The figure for casualties in the latest action against urban Nazalite groups is offered
on the website of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA): www.idsa.in.
17
«India Reviews its National Security Policies». Modification hopes. IHS Jane’s
10.06.2014.
339
der with some of the neighboring countries: Bangladesh, Bután, Myanmar

and China, so that more than 98% of its territory is international border-
land. In spite of being a region of relatively sparse population (in a country
of more than a billion inhabitants), the porous limits of its geography and
its diffuse borders make up a scenario which facilitates illegal arms and
drug traffic. In this space, where Southeast Asia and the Far East meet,
relations of proximity are of major importance, especially with Myanmar
and Bangladesh.
From the cultural point of view, in the Indian northeast around 200 ethnic
and 400 tribal groups co-exist, with as many languages and dialects, the
majority of Sino-Tibetan and Austro-Asian origin. The tribal population of
these territories is varied and is closer to the Southeast Asian than to the
Dravidic dominant in the rest of India.18
The arrival of the British in the ancient kingdom of Assam was hailed
as a liberation by the inhabitants of Manipur and Tripura, victims of the
Burman invasions entering Assam through the Patkai mountains. The
hope for British contribution to the development of the region and its ex-
ploitations of tea, petroleum and coal included the extension of the rai-
lway network through valleys and mountains. However, these plans to
integrate the population of the plains and the hills were frustrated. The
British restricted access, establishing barriers between the people of the
valleys and those of the mountains, so that ethnic and territorial unity
was fragmented, thus sowing the seed for the aspiration to a territory of
exclusivity.
Today, after decades of conflict, tension in this complex region is not only
with the central Indian government, but is also rising between ethnic
groups and the autonomous government, against the Moslem community
and even between the tribes and the inhabitants from other regions.
It is undoubtedly the area of India where insurgency is longest-lasting
and most persistent, for separatist violence began in 1952 in present-day
Nagaland, and has submerged the region in a long low-level conflict.19
Although official Indian information considers that the insurgency is of an
exclusively anti-governmental and terrorist nature, there are many who
point to other motives.
The most recurrent complaints and demands stem principally from a fe-
eling of exclusion from the management of the natural resources that
18
In this area live Kukis, Mizos, Nagas, Chin, Meitei, Bodos, Karbis, Dimasas, Khasis,
Garos, Assamese and Bengalis. In some cases, as in Mizoram, ethnic groups make up
94.5% of the population: 89.1% in Nagaland; 85.9% in Maghalaya; 64.2% in Arunachal
Pradesh; 34.2% in Manipur; 31.1% in Tripura; and 12.4% in Assam. Nagaland, Mizoram
and Meghalaya are in addition the only Indian states with Christian majority.
19
A low-level conflict involves a range of deaths of between 100 and 1,000 per year.
340
the tribal groups consider to be their single and true state. The disagree-
ments make evident something more than the need for attention, for at
the historic root of these conflicts is the demand for recognition of the
indigenous territories prior to the partition of the subcontinent and the
rejection of the state and territorial reorganization which constitutes the
present-day India Union. In effect, the postcolonial period created new
states with the incorporation of different tribes and territories, some of
them without their consent, into an administrative organization marked
by a certain incongruity and ethnic disparity. And so a situation was arri-
ved at where some territories suddenly found themselves dominated by
an ethnic majority alien to the traditional, as occurred in Assam and in
Manipur.
Today no-one has any doubts about the effects of the so-called «cata-
clysm of 1947», respecting everything that the division of the subcon-
tinent implied, especially for the territories of the northeast: division of
routes of communication and of railways, isolation of strategic points like
the port of Chittagong, and an incessant wave of migration causing de-
mographic alteration. Subdivision meant, finally, traumatic poverty and
isolation.20
Later, another political upheaval, the birth of Bangladesh, originated
massive migrations felt in this region as a weapon of destruction of indi-
genous culture. The violence has progressively crystallized in the face of
the failure of reiterated protests, the generalized feeling of abandonment
by the Delhi government and the reduction of territorial space. For many
peasants, the central government’s development projects and the arrival
of immigrants do them nothing but harm. Claims have become deeply en-
trenched and have given rise to aspiration for the creation of autonomous
states of ethnic exclusivity.
The conflicts are produced when the desire for cultural preservation of
the minorities clashes with the majority cultural current represented by
the national State. Ethnic minorities confront a State which they consider
to be a cultural homogenizer, and at the same time clash with each other
over control of resources and dominion of land. Thus there are conflicts
of tribes versus states; tribes versus tribes and tribes versus non-tribal
groups. Within this context of cultural and social tension, the atomization
of armed groups, the proliferation and facility of acquisition of small arms
and training, and the corruption of regional leaders cast a pall over the
possibilities for a peaceful and immediate way out of these conflicts. The
armed groups seem to have renounced the ideological revolution and are
20
Ajai Sahni. «Conflict and Resolution in India’s Northeast». South Asia Terrorism Por-
tal. Available at website: www.satp.org. Date of consultation: 01/09/2014.
341
more concerned with the recovery of their territories or even with ethnic
cleansing.
The creation of new States is an old affair in India, begun in the colonial
and immediate post-colonial period. Even more, it appears as a reference
in the Constitution of the Indian Republic21 which is, in the end, a union of
states. The most recent case has been Telaranga, arisen in the southeast
of the country from the division of the region of Andhra Pradesh and ba-
sed on the argument of linguistic majority, and which has cost the lives of
400 people since the initiation of its petition for autonomy in 1979.
In 1953, with the creation of the States Reorganization Commission (SRC),
an attempt was made to avoid the exclusive use of the linguistic criteria
for the creation of new states; on the contrary, these were intended to
be multilingual and endowed with sufficient resources as to be econo-
mically independent. Currently, however, the survival of the majority of
those with a tribal population is 90% thanks to subsidies from the cen-
tral government. And this is one of the indicators of the lack of uniform
progress among the regions of India, for the northeast has experienced
hardly any economic growth and remains in a state of backwardness si-
milar to that of forty years ago.22 It is revealing that, while the inhabitants
of other regions ask for work and health programs, those of the northeast
still request identity and security.23 An example of the state of panic and
marginalization in which the population lives is its vulnerability in the
face of possible attacks and clashes among ethnic groups. In August of
2012, there occurred the massive reception of mobile phone messages
warning of clashes between communities, setting off a wave of people
fleeing towards Bombay, Pune and Bangalore and arriving in Chennai,
Hyderabad and Mysore. People expressed their anger, fury and charges
of injustice on the Facebook and Twitter networks, to which the govern-
ment responded by blocking the web, but without identifying the origin of
the Messages.24 Beyond the viral effect of the mass messages, what this
event reveals is the feeling of insecurity that the population lives in and
the permanent menace of conflicts in the territory.
Finally, the actions of the Security forces have produced complaints and
abuses against human rights. The antiterrorist laws, especially the Ar-
med Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA),25 dictated in 2002 following the
21
States Reorganization Commission-SRC. This commission was created in 1953 and
determined the organization of the State of India into 16 states and 3 territories atta-
ched to the Union.
22
GUITE, George S. «Kuki State Demand in Manipur: The only viable option for the
Kukis.» Journal of North East India Studies, July-December 2013, pp 1-13.
23
Guite, op.cit., p. 3.
24
NEOG, Ruhee Neog, «Social Media: A Study of the Northeast.», (14 Nov.2013). Avai-
lable at Website http://www.ipca.org/ruhee/.
25
AFSPA is the abbreviation for the Armed Forces Special Power Act.
342
attacks on Parliament, have been considered excessive and a cause of

the forced emigration of the population into urban centers.26
The intervention of neighboring countries has been a determining factor
in the development of armed action by insurgent groups. The collabora-
tion between China and Pakistan with some of them led in the eighties
to the proliferation of groups. A number of them have been transformed
into extortionist gangs, and others are involved in drug trafficking out of
the Golden Triangle. Currently, negotiations predominate, with more or
less success, between the State and the most powerful groups, such as
the National Socialist Council of Nagaland NSCN), the National Democra-
tic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), and the United Liberation Front of Assam
(ULFA). But In spite of the initiation of a number of peace processes, the
blowing up of oil pipelines and violent clashes and incidents continue
periodically.
Assam: from a territorial demand to petition for a Bodo state
The present-day State of Assam is located to the south of the eastern Hi-
malayas. Culturally, 12.4% is made up of more than 200 ethnic groups.27
Assamese has been recognized as the official language since 1873, toge-
ther with Hindi and English.
From the economic point of view, and according to data from the Indian
government itself, Assam is one of the states of least growth, in spite
of being the first state to have produced petroleum and of holding four
refineries.
Prior to the British colonial period, Assam held a broader territory which
included the present-day state of Arunachal Pradesh and which was go-
verned for 600 years by the Ahom dynasty. In 1826 the region was inte-
grated into India, as part of the province of Bengal.
The conflict with the central government was born following the indepen-
dence of India and was initiated when in 1951 part of the border territory
was ceded to the State of Butan. Territorial shrinking increased after the
birth of Nagaland and Meghalaya in 1963, Manipur and Tripur in 1972
and Mizoram in 1986. However, the trigger for protest was produced in
1970. Facing the imminent creation of Bangladesh, more than two million
Bengali refugees settled in this state. This migration unleashed wrath in
the face of what was seen as a menace to Assamese identity, weakened
confidence in the Delhi government even further and fostered the appea-
26
Urgell Garcia, Jordi and Villellas Ariño, María. «Five Keys to Understanding the
Disputes in the Northeast of India», Cidob Review of International Affairs, no. 89-90,
pp.149-166.
27
Bodo, Mising, Rabha, Sonowal, Lalung (Tiwa), Deori and Thengal (Mech).
343
rance of the first protest movement, the student movement All Assam
Students Union (AASU). Following the creation of this group, more than
30 armed groups have entered into action, although today, only 15 remain
active.
From among these, of special note is the United Liberation Front of
Assam (ULFA), of Maoist inspiration and which decided to demand a
sovereign Assamese state, socialist and independent of India, through
armed struggle, in 1989. With training bases in Bangladesh, it cen-
tered its assaults in the eighties on the petroleum production of the
region.
After a number of insinuations of peace conversations, in 1994 4,000
militants left the group, and its bases in Butan were seriously damaged
thanks to an agreement for joint military intervention between the go-
vernments of Butan and India. Finally, in 2005, it sought to negotiate the
initiation of a peace process, later interrupted.
In 1987, another focus of tension appeared, in this case of ethnic charac-
ter: the Bodos, traditionally the majority tribal group in Assam, and which
today has become an ethnic minority.28 Backed by organizations like All
Bodo Students’ Union (ABSU), it has gradually transformed its territorial
demands into the aspiration for an independent Bodo state within the re-
gion. The xenophobic spiral has progressively increased to the point of
considering non-Assamese-speaking inhabitants to be terrorists. During
the months from October to December of 2000 alone, more than 90 peo-
ple were killed in disturbances.
Uniting for the rejection of Moslem immigrants are such groups as the
National Democratic Front of Bodoland29, (NDFB), with a broad Christian
base and with camps in Butan and Bangladesh, which have found in the
birth of the new state of Telangana one more argument for the raising of
arms. In 2008, the death of a young Moslem in the Urdalguri district spar-
ked clashes between Bodos and Moslems which left 55 dead and more
than 100 injured.
For their part, the Moslem immigrants of Assam have started up their
armed militia, demanding a segregated state for the Moslem majority.
According to the census of 2001, although the indigenous groups consi-
der them foreigners, many of these Moslems had arrived in the territory
before the creation of Bangladesh, which technically makes them Indian
citizens.30
28
They are 5% of the total population of the state.
29
National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB).
30
PRASAD, Bibu. «Violence in Assam. Battle for the Bodo Heartland». Institute of Pea-
ce and Conflict Studies. No. 85 (Oct.2008). Available at website:http://www.ipcs.org.
344
Today, the more than 15 armed Islamic groups are associated with
the serious risk of connection with jihadists.31 The traditional support
networks for drug and arms trafficking together with the ideological
vacuum, the reverses suffered and the support maintained by Bangla-
desh and Pakistan increase the danger of Islamization of the Indian
northeast.
In 2011 there seemed to appear a significant reduction in the violence,
with a number of armed groups giving up their arms or initiating con-
versations with the government. But 2012 was a bloodstained year, with
more than 32 deaths from the fights between the Bodo and Moslem com-
munities. The sacking of 60 towns in the Kokrajhar and Chirang districts
forced nearly 70,000 townspeople to flee their homes and take refuge in
camps. In addition, clashes between minority tribal groups have not di-
sappeared. The atomization of armed groups fighting among themselves
to achieve zones of ethnic exclusivity stages a panorama making dialo-
gue impossible, and which maintains a state of anxiety and alert in the
populace.
Nagaland:
The oldest conflict of northeast India
The state of Nagaland, in northeast India, is a territory of 16,579 km2, of

which only 147 are urban areas. It borders on Assam, Manipur and Aru-
nachal Pradesh, and is also a border passageway into Myanmar. It owes
its name to the most numerous tribal group in the territory, the Nagas.32
Traditionally isolated in the mountains, they enjoyed independence du-
ring British rule, an argument they bring up for the creation of a state of
ethnic exclusivity and emancipated from the Union.33
Of the three conflicts in the country’s northeast, Nagaland’s is the ol-
dest, for it began shortly before the independence of India. The Naga
country was declared a British district in 1881 and the rest of the te-
rritory of present-day Nagaland was one of the zones classified as an
«excluded area», which permitted its population to follow their own
31
Zulfiqur, Rahman: «India’s Northeast: the threat of Islamist Militancy». (March 2013.
Available on website: http://strategicstudyIndia.blogspot.com .
32
This denomination refers to a society of more than 20 tribal groups who inhabit
the Indian northeast and the Myanmar southwest, among whom are found the Ao,
the Sema, the Lotha, the Tangkhul, the Konyak, the Rengma and the Mao. Each group
speaks a different language, although all belong to the Tibetan-Burman linguistic group.
33
Significantly, and unlike the country’s Hindu majority, more than 87.5% of its po-
pulation is of the Christian Baptist religion, as are the neighboring states of Manipur,
Mizoram and Menghalaya.
345
rules and maintain themselves outside British administration until

1947. A year earlier, the National Naga Council (NNC), a political orga-
nization grouping together different Naga entities, solicited from the
British and from the Indian leaders a guarantee for the independence
of Nagaland, basing their claim on the fact that they had never be-
longed to this country. Since the agreement signed with the British
was not implemented, in 1951 the National Naga Council convoked a
referendum on the independence of the territory. Angami Zapu Phizo,
the leader at that time, claimed to have obtained 99.9% of the votes
in favor of independence. Rejection by the central government led to
the radicalization of the Naga movement to the point where during the
Indian Parliamentary elections of 1952, not a single member of this
ethnic group attended in order to vote. Following the boycott came
a civil disobedience movement which rejected the payment of taxes
as well as support for any institution of the central government, in-
cluding schools. Promulgation of the Law of Special Powers for the
Armed Forces was the government’s response. However, after a num-
ber of agreements and the decisive participation of a peace mission,
the proclamation was achieved of the state of Nagaland in December
of 1963, and years later, and thanks to the mediation of the Nagaland
Baptist Church, the so-called Shillong Accord was signed in 1975.34
Although this pact called for a total surrender of arms, in 1980 some
140 members of the rival faction of the Naga National Council reorga-
nized themselves from China into a new group, the National Socialist
Council of Nagaland, which internationalized the conflict upon deman-
ding the creation of a great Naga state with the incorporation of Naga
territories in Myanmar.
Finally, the ethnic factor was also the cause of a division in this same
organization in 1988. The majority of its members are Konyak, whi-
le the hierarchy is of the Tangkhul ethnic group. Split into two factions,
Isaac-Muivah (NSCN-IM) and the NSCN-Khaplang (NSCN-K), they main-
tain a strong rivalry.
The successive governments of India have shown unmistakable signs
of their willingness to resolve the question, and in 2001 a new accord
was signed, committing the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-IM to
a cessation of extortion and to extending the cease-fire to beyond the
territory of the state of Nagaland. Delhi’s strategy seems to have been
based on firm diplomatic resistance which permitted a second meeting
in Osaka and later, in 2012, in Bankok, this time with the mediation of
the minister of Mizoram.
34
Agreement of surrender and of acceptance of the borders of the Indian Union sig-
ned in November of 1975.
346
Manipur: the difficult aspiration to ethnic exclusivity
The kingdom of Manipur, formerly Muneepoor, sovereign until 1891,

was the last kingdom to be incorporated into British India. The Act of
Manipur35 restored its independence in 1947, but two years later, its
maximum political representative, Mahraha Bodhchandra, signed the
Shillong treaty of adhesion by means of which Manipur was formally
incorporated into the Indian Union, and assigned part of her former
territory to Assam and to Nagaland. The signing of this treaty, as one
more fact of the so-called «cartographic surgery» exercised upon the
territories of the Indian northeast, is at the root of the permanent di-
sorder in the region and is the source of the discontent of its popu-
lation as well as of the rebellion begun several years later. Manipur
merged with the Indian Union in 1949, but was not considered to be
a state until 1972, and that, after years of protests and clashes with
the central government and the Meitei. In addition to this latter tribe,
within the territory of present-day Manipur, where nearly 90% of the
territory are mountains, there also live Nagas and Kukis. These inha-
bit the mountains, while the rest of the land surface of Manipur is the
valley of the Imphal where the Meiteis (Hindus) and the Meitei Pan-
gals (Moslem) live, making up more than 50% of the population. This
strict territorial distribution was agreed to by the Indian Government
in 1960 following the Land Reform Act.36 The difficulties lie not only in
the demand for territories of ethnic exclusivity but in the implications
for other states of the northeast, given that the Naga are extended
throughout Arunachal Pradesh and Myanmar.
The three ethnic groups struggle among themselves through different
armed groups. The first insurgent movement was headed by the Meitei
in 1951, enjoying the support of the Burmese Communist Party; throu-
ghout the second half of the past century there arose armed organiza-
tions and groups of Communist as well as of ethnic membership. At this
time, the Manipur People’s Liberation Front is the group most active. Its
claims are based on the attempt to organize a common front including
the ethnic groups of the northeast with the objective of ejecting those
considered «outsiders» or Mayangs. The historic claim to independen-
ce from the Indian state gave way in the nineties to a demand for the
creation of ethnically pure states, which have given rise to actions of
ethnic cleansing. Thus, in the face of the demand of the Naga and their
group to create Greater Nagaland, the Kukis are calling for the creation
of Kukiland, as in an unending jigsaw puzzle; they have no support from
the Meitei.
Manipur State Constitution Act, 1947.

35
Two laws regulate this territorial distribution: the Land Reform Act and Manipur
36
Land Revenue.
347
Turning to another aspect of the situation, the «combined operations», in

which State security forces intervene along with paramilitary forces, not
only produce numerous clashes which set back the idea of a definitive
peace, but have also led to violation of the rights of the civilian population.
Peace agreements have succeeded each other in a systematic cycle of
signing and interruption.
In 2005, a MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) was signed with
the groups from the valley, but the actual fact is that no-one can
assure its full compliance because no-one knows with any certainty
the number of groups and arms there are in the region. The situation
is contaminated by the control of the drug traffic, and the hopes of
finding a peaceful solution seem to be fading. The fear of losing land,
the demands for empowerment, and ethnic exclusivity blend with the
militarization of the area and the terrorist practices of extortion and
corruption. In this scenario, perhaps there remains no other solution
but to request international mediation to achieve a definitive cessa-
tion of the violence.
External actors
One of the difficulties entangling a solution to the conflict in which Assam,

Nagaland, Manipur and the central government of India find themselves
implicated is the involvement of neighboring countries.
Deliberate State support of insurgency in a neighboring State per-
mits not only traffic in arms and ammunition but the establishment
of protected sanctuaries. Without the aid of China and Nepal, it is
difficult to understand how, for more than half a century, it has been
possible to maintain armed conflicts between a State as powerful
as the Indian Union and minority groups in conflict with one another.
The Minister of the Interior of the Union himself denounced the par-
ticipation of China in the year 2000, after detecting militants of the
National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak Muivah in the province
of Yunnan.
The involvement of China and her difficult relations with the Indian go-
vernment is the question of greatest weight. Since the territorial clashes
over Kashmir in 1962, China occupies two areas claimed by India: the As-
kai Desert and the Karakorum Pass, ceded to China by Pakistan in 1963.
A third area remains open to litigation by the two countries.
This area is Arunachal Pradesh, approximately the size of Austria, and
which the Chinese consider to be South Tibet, but which formed part of
Assam until 1987.
348
Although currently the two governments recognize each other as part-

ners and make diplomatic efforts to resolve border questions, neither of
them has forgotten its territorial claims.
New Delhi has repeatedly denounced and accused Pakistan and its
intelligence services of supporting the Harkat-ul-Juhad-al-Islami
(HuJI) not only in India but also in Bangladesh, as well as groups
from Assam such as the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA),
Burman groups like the Kachin Independence Army (KIA or Cox Ba-
zar), and even China is fearful of radical Islamist influence in her
Xinjiang territories.
The intense diplomatic activity developed in recent years by the In-
dian government has achieved a major improvement in relations with
some of its neighboring countries, such as is the case of Butan, which
for years sheltered insurgent groups and which in 2004 launched an
intense offensive to eject hundreds of Assamese from her territory.
Another achievement has been the serious measures taken by the go-
vernments of Myanmar and Bangladesh to wipe out terrorist sanctua-
ries in their territories.
Onto this international horizon, where national interests and the rivalry
of two demographical powers such as China and India intersect, the reli-
gious factor erupts as a destabilizing element of great potency.
The diplomatic actions of the new Prime Minister Maranda Modi show a
will towards conciliation with his neighboring countries, but his victory
has also been interpreted as a major boost for Hindu nationalism. It does
not seem credible, therefore, that the will for reinforcement of the na-
tion-state which is India would consider a new remodelling of dividing
lines, and even less so if these should affect the borders with her neigh-
boring countries.
Up to August 24 of this year, when the 60th anniversary of the independen-

ce of India is celebrated, the number of deaths in the northeast following
the birth of the Union has risen to 5,697, of whom 2,166 are civilian, 418
correspond to security forces and 3,113 to terrorists.37
Conflicts in the area have been unceasing in the past two years. Spe-
cifically in Assam, they have intensified. Incidents range from relatively
minor actions, such as extortion and kidnappings of citizens, to the clo-
sing of roads, the burning of residences and violence against women. The
37
The portal The South Asian Terrorist Portal offers updated data. Available at websi-
te: www.satp.org. Date of consultation: 01/09/2014.
349
image of burning houses and the terrified flight of the townspeople in the
incidents of July 2012 give an idea of the situation of risk in which the
population is living.
The year 2011 seemed to have produced a significant reduction in the
violence with the commencement of conversations with the govern-
ment and the corresponding handover of arms by some of the armed
groups, but 2012 was a bloodstained year, with more than 32 deaths
from the clashes between the Bodo and Moslem communities. The sa-
cking of 60 towns in the Kokrahjar and Chirang districts sent nearly
70,000 townspeople fleeing from their homes to take refuge in camps.
The intensity of the conflict caused the cancellation of rail traffic and
left the entire region isolated for several days. Incidents have been on
the rise in this state following the rupture of the dialogue between the
government and the ULFA. During the pre-electoral period, this group
intensified its actions with a campaign of bombing assaults on public
places like markets or railway stations and increased attacks on im-
migrants. On the 24th of May alone, seven people died and more than
thirty were injured by a bomb explosion.
In the last two years, six new groups have appeared in Assam: the Kar-
bi National Liberation Army (KNLA), the United Popular Liberation Front
(UPLF), Dima Hala Daogah-Action (DHD-A), Dima Jadi Naiso Army (DJNA),
the National Liberation Front of Bengal (NLFB), and the United Dimasa
Kachari Liberation Front (UDKLF).
Peace agreements have not been lacking, and in 2012 an agreement was
signed between the Central Government, that of Assam and two factions
of the Dima Halam Daogah. Also of note are the positive developments in
the peace negotiations with the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA)
and the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB). Nonetheless,
even though the social tension relaxes, any pretext may provoke a new
outbreak of incidents. It happened so, for example, last August 30th when
two people died and more than twenty-six were arrested following the
outbreak of violence during the celebration of a rally organized by the
United Naga Council.
The border zones with Myanmar in the state of Manipur continue to be the
scene of frequent confrontations and arrests not only of those suspected
of forming part of insurgent groups but of undocumented persons. In spi-
te of the incessant flow of detentions and the denouncement of excesses,
it may be said that there has been a reduction of the violence in Manipur.
At least the number of mortal victims has been reduced from 110 to 55
between 2012 and 2013. In Nagaland, despite conversations dating back
to 1997, no appreciable advances have been made in the negotiations
between the government and the NSCN-IM.
350
The current situation presents a panorama of gradual reduction in vio-

lence, but also of maintenance of the state of anxiety and alert of the
population.
In contrast, the Justice Commission is investigating a total of 1,528 cases
of presumed extrajudicial executions carried out by the Armed Forces
which the Association of Families of Victims had presented in 2012.
The civilian society, made up of the Baptist Church and organizations of
women and students, have held meetings with the opposing parties and
seem to represent the only possibility for escape from the climate of mi-
litarization and violence in the region.
As the composition of this document was nearing completion, news arri-
ved of the discovery of the bodies of two young girls, of 9 and 10 years
of age, hung from a tree after being raped. This occurrence took place in
Assam only 2 km. from the border with Bangladesh. Although unfortuna-
tely the rape and murder of women and children are not events limited to
the Indian northeast, but rather are a social blight common to the who-
le country, this is one more case of the repeatedly denounced violence
against women of minority tribal groups.
The statements of 4th September of Zawahiri, where he mentions the sta-
te of Assam as one of the objectives of Al Quaeda, were enough to place
the security forces of India on the alert. Although there is no evidence to
date of the presence of cells of the Islamic State in India, and with the
caveat of considering this statement as a propaganda strategy, the Modi
government should take measures in the face of the possibility of radical
Islam finding weighty arguments in the pressure under which the Mos-
lem population in these states is living.
The origin of the disputes in the northeastern states of the Indian Union
is the persistence of borders which have never been accepted by their
inhabitants and have been shown to have perverse effects for their popu-
lations. The organization of the states of the northeast fragmented their
coincidence with natural frontiers and put political interests before the
territorial claims of tribal groups. In the case of the Nagas, following the
territorial design of 1947, they were left divided and buried away between
two great states, as are India and Myanmar. Designated a «non-adminis-
tered area» by the Indian government in 1935, the borderlines between
the two countries were not determined until 1967.
The events which brought about the creation of Bangladesh added to all
of these, but most especially to Assam, a demographic destabilization
351
which transformed opposition to the Delhi government into a religious

confrontation which has ended in ethnically centered demands.
The violence appeared in the three states as the effect of a lack of
understanding, an underestimation of the tribal demands and the
militarization of the area. Paramilitary groups like the Assam Rifles
and the Special Security Forces face off periodically with a number
of armed groups, which are born and splinter into fragments thus
making more acute a situation which prejudices the economic deve-
lopment of the area and keeps the population in a state of permanent
insecurity.
The central state has made great investment efforts and the area
is rich in natural resources and possibilities for the development of
tourism. Specific proposals have been made for shared development
with neighboring countries Myanmar and Thailand through the ASEAN
(Association of South-East Asian Nations); some of these, such as the
building of a trilateral highway India-Myanmar-Thailand or the cons-
truction of a trans-Asiatic train, could contribute to alleviating the iso-
lation of these states.
However, in answer to those who point to low economic investment as
the cause of a lack of understanding with New Delhi, the extraordinary
importance of the increasing ethnic factor must be emphasized. While
it is true that anthropologically this region shares more features with
its southeast Asian neighbors than with the rest of India, the demand
for the creation of ethnically pure states implies a situation of ethnic
exclusion.
An outcome satisfactory to all parties will not be possible without the
involvement of the civilian society. Initiatives in this respect have been
numerous, and once more, it is women’s groups which have led the
way, although in fragmented fashion, into coherent programs for the
restoration of peace. Considered trustworthy mediators in a cultural
context more equalitarian than that of Hindu or Moslem territories,
they have set up movements like Maira Paibid (or Mothers of the So-
ciety), Nupi or Chanura Leishem Marup, which aid in the protection
of the communities, in the development of actions aimed at the em-
powerment of women and at the prevention of alcoholism and drug
addiction. Other social sectors such as citizens’ councils, tribal lea-
ders, and groups of pro-civil-rights activists also participate in pea-
ce conversations. Finally, it remains to highlight the great negotiating
capacity of the Nagaland Baptist Church.
In light of the fact that a return to pre-colonial roots is impossible and se-
tting aside ethnic exclusivity, it is essential to stimulate economic growth
in the least favored areas and to return the exploitation of natural riches
to the inhabitants of the territory. Collaboration will also be necessary
352
between central governmental entities and intermediaries sincerely in-

volved in peace, leaving insurgent groups aside.
One last factor is erupting into the unstable panorama on the subconti-
nent: the dangerous propaganda of radical Islam, which may find in this
region its optimal conditions if work is not carried out involving the inte-
gration of the Moslem population. Radicals, both of Hindu nationalism and
of ethnic separatism, only contribute to the failure of a nation-building
project and to the spreading of insecurity, in a true shattering of the sense
of citizenship.
Insurgent groups in Assam

-- United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA).
-- National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB).
-- Adivasi Cobra Force(ACF).
-- Dima Halim Daogah (DHD).
-- Hmar People’s Democratic Convention (HPC-D).
-- Kamtapur Liberation Organization (KLO).
-- Moslem United Liberation Tigers of Assam(MULTA).
-- Black Widow (BW).
-- All-Adivasi National Liberation Army (AANLA).
-- Karbi Longri National Liberation Front (KLNLF)
-- Hill-Tiger Force (HTF).
-- Karbi National Liberation Tigers (KPLT).
-- Dimasa National Revolutionary Front (DNRF).
-- United Kukigram Defense Army (UKDA). Rabha Viper Army (RVA).
-- United Democratic Liberation Army (UDLA).
Insurgent groups active in Manipur

-- Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP).
-- Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL).
-- Manipur People’s Liberation Front (MPLF).
-- People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
-- People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK).
-- United National Liberation Front (UNLF).
-- Kuki Liberation Army (KLA).
-- Kuki National Army (KNA).
-- Kuki National Front (KNF).
-- Kuki Revolutionary Army (KRA).
-- National Socialist Council of Nagaland - Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM).
-- People’s United Liberation Front (PULF).
-- United Kuki Liberation Front (UKLF).
-- Zomi Revolutionary Army (ZRA).
-- Hmar People’s Convention- Democracy (HPC-D).
353
Insurgent groups active in Nagaland
-- National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM).

-- Nacional Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K).
-- National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Unification (NSCN-U).
-- National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khole-Kitovi
(NSCN-Khole-Kitovi).
(http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/states/assam/terro-
rist_outfits/index.html).
Chronology of the conflict
2014-Al-Zawahiri announces the creation of AlQaeda in India.

2014-Modi wins the May elections.
2011-Land Boundary Agreement with Bangladesh 2011.
2009-Terrorist attacks in Mumbay.
2008-Creation of the Cervantes Institute en India.
2007-Treaty of Friendship India-Butan.
2001-Cease-fire of the NSCN-IM in Nagaland.
1999-Cease-fire of the NSCN-K in Nagaland.
1983-Beginning of the armed struggle in Assam.
1978-India becomes 6th world nuclear power.
1975- Shillong. Accord.
1972-Creation of the State of Manipur.
1971- Bangladesh is born.
1965- Indopakistani War
1963-Birth of the State of Nagaland.
1958-The Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act.
1956-The Naga National Council begins armed struggle.
1949-Manipur joins the Indian State.
1947-Independence of India y Pakistán.
1946-Beginning of Naga resistence: Naga.National Council
1941-Creation of the Assam Rifles.
354
Source: 2011 Census and data from the Centre for Development and Peace Studies; CIA
World Factbook and the World Bank.
355
Victims by States
Data in boldface up to August of 2014Source: http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/

india/database/indiafatalities.htm.Date consulted. 11/08/2014.
356
Bibliography
APPADURAI, Arjun. El rechazo de las minorías. Ensayo sobre la geografía de
la furia. («The Rejection of Minorities. Essay on the Geography of Fury»)
Barcelona: Tusquets, 2007.192 p. ISBN Available at Website: 978-84-
8383-012-3.
AHANTHEM, Chitra Ahanthem. «The road to peace in Manipur. Peace Audit
Northeast». Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, Special Report. Nº
156. (March 2014).
BHATTACHARYYA, Harihar. «India: Bodo people’s rights take a step for-
ward» Federations. What’s new in federalism worldwide, Vol. 4, No. 3
(March 2005). Available at Website: http://www.forumfed.org/en/
pubs/V4N3.pdf.
BORREGUERO, Eva. La Democracia en India. Tendencias y perspectivas de
una nación multicultural («Democracy in India. Tendencies and perspec-
tives of a multicultural nation.») [On line]. Documentos Cidob94. Avail-
able at website: www.cidob.org.
CARO, María José. «India: La insugencia naxalita«.(«India: The Naxalite
Insurgency») En Panorama geopolítico de los conflictos (Geopolitical
Overview of Conflicts 2013.) Madrid: Ministry of Defense, 2013. pp.
303-328., ISBN 978-84-9781-882-7.
Centre for Development and Peace Studies at website: http://cdpsindia.
org/ne_fact.asp.
D’SOUZA, Shantie y PRASAD,Bibhu.»Violence in Assam: Resource Wars,
Illegal Migration or Governance Deficit?» Institute of South Asian Stud-
ies, Nº 250, (September 2012). Available at website:
http://www.isas.nus.edu.sg/Attachments/PublisherAttachment/ISAS_
Brief_250_-Violence_in_Assam_07092012101517.pdf.
DAS, Rani. »Northeast 2013: A Year of Peace and Violence». Centre for De-
velopment and Peace Studies Year in review. Nº 4258 (Enero 2014).
DAS, RANI.»Peace-talks in India’s northeast: New Delhi’s Bodo knot». Cen-
tre for Development and Peace Studies, Nº 4355 (Marzo 2014).
DIAZ SILVELA, Enrique; VACAS, Félix. El conflicto de India y Pakistan.(«Con-
flict in India and Pakistan») Madrid: Ministry of Defense, 2006. 133 p.
ISBN: 97-84-9781-215-3. http://escolapau.uab.es
Global Peace Index-2014. Measuring Peace and Assessing Country Risk.
Institute for Economics and Peace. Disponible en Web:
http://www.visionofhumanity.org/#/page/indexes/mexico-peace-index.
GUITE, George. »Kuki State Demand in Manipur: The only viable option for
the Kukis». Journal of North East India Studies Comment. (July/De-
cember 2013).
357
Indigenous World 2008. Copenhague: Kathrin Wessendorf. 2008. Avail-

able at Website: http://www.iwgia.org/iwgia_files_publications_
files/IA_3-08_India.pdf.
Anuario 2014. Available at Website: http://www.iwgia.org/images/sto-
ries/sections-esp/regiones/asia/docs/MI2014/IndiaMI2014.pdf.
Informe sobre Desarrollo Humano («Report on Human Development») 2014.
New York: United Nations Program for Development. 2014. Available
at Website: http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdr14-summa-
ry-es.pdf.
Jane’s Sentinel Security Assessment-South Asia y Country Risk Daily Re-
port. Available at Website: www.ihs.com.
KHONGREIWOT, Rammathot. »Understanding the Histories of Peoples on
the Margins: A critique of ‘Northeast India’s Durable Disorder’ ». Alter-
natives. Nº 34. 2009.
MASFERRER, Bernat. «Violencia política y terrorismo en la India contem-
poránea». («Political Violence and Terrorism in Contemporary India»)
Anuario Asia- Pacífic. Nº 1,2006. Available at Website: http://www.
cidob.org/.
NEOG, Ruhee.» Social Media: A Study of the Northeast». IPCS Commentary,
Nº. 4180. (Noviembre 2014) Available at Website: http://www.ipcs.
org/ruhee/.
PRASAD, Bibhu.»Violence in Assam. Battle for the Bodo Heartland». Insti-
tute of peace and conflict studies. Nº85 (octubre 2008). Available at
Webside: http://www.ipcs.org/issue-brief/india/violence-in-assam-
battle-for-the-bodo-heartland-85.html.
SAHNI, Ajai. «Conflict and resolution in Indian’s Northeast» Available at
Website: http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/publication/faultlines/vol-
ume12/Article3.htm.
URGELL, Jordi y VILELLAS, Maria. «Cinco claves para comprender la con-
flictividad en el nordeste de la India«. («Five Keys for Understanding
Conflict in Northeast India») Magazine: Cidob d’Afers Internacionals.
Nº 89/90.
MUKHERJEE, Shivaji. «Colonial origins of Maoist insurgency in India: Long-
term effects of indirect rule». Center for Advanced Study of India. Nº
13 (January 2013).
SOUTH-ASIA TERRORISM PORTAL. Available at Website:
NEOG, Ruhee.» Social Media: A Study of the Northeast». IPCS Commentary,
Nº. 4180. (November 2014) Available at Website: http://www.ipcs.
org/ruhee/.
PRASAD, Bibhu.»Violence in Assam. Battle for the Bodo Heartland». Insti-
tute of peace and conflict studies. Nº85 ( octubre 2008).Disponible en
358
Web: http://www.ipcs.org/issue-brief/india/violence-in-assam-bat-
tle-for-the-bodo-heartland-85.html.
SAHNI, Ajai «Conflict and resolution in Indian’s Northeast» Available at
Website: http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/publication/faultlines/vol-
ume12/Article3.htm.
URGELL, Jordi y VILELLAS, Maria. «Cinco claves para comprender la con-
flictividad en el nordeste de la India«. («Five Keys to Understanding
Conflict in Northeast India») Magazine: Cidob d’Afers Internacionals.
Nº 89/90.
MUKHERJEE, Shivaji. «Colonial origins of Maoist insurgency in India: Long-
term effects of indirect rule». Center for Advanced Study of India. Nª
13 (January 2013).
SOUTH ASIA TERRORISM PORTAL. Available at Website:
http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/icm/index.html.
359
The China and its neighborhood. The key test Chapter
for the peaceful development therteen
Summary
This chapter deals with China’s immediate vicinity, 25 actors: Japan,

North Korea, South Korea, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Singapore,
Indonesia, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar, Butan, Bangla-
desh, Nepal, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tadzhikistan, Kirghizistan, Ka-
zakhistan, Mongolia, Russia, and the United States. They all represent the
most immediate foreign challenge to Chinese domestic strength in her
peaceful development towards the objectives of progress imposed by the
Communist Party for the celebration of the hundredth anniversary of its
accession to power, October 1, 2049.
As with all challenges, this one also has its thorny problems: a conglome-
rate of very differing actors coinciding closely and immediately1 in their
domestic development within what may be considered as one of the most
difficult and demanding geopolitical settings on the world stage.
At the same time, it presents a wide range of possibilities for the ge-
neration of expansion vectors, thus forging an expansive dynamic in the
fields of commercial, cultural, diplomatic and military relations, essential
1
An example is the book by Richard Bush, «The Perils of Proximity: China-Japan Secu-
rity Relations». Brookings Institution Press; 1st edition (11 October 2010). Washington.
361
in the Chinese development model, in an area of extreme richness for the
natural expansion of the most productive forces of its society’s progress.
The achievement of the accommodation of China’s impressive socioecono-
mic development, as well as its future potential within this geopolitical fra-
mework marked by the nationalist tendency and by what still is the North
American military hegemony, offers a unique opportunity, especially so that
the second half of the 21st century may evolve gradually and progressively
from a geostrategic setting dominated by cooperative security towards an
integral vision of reality and intelligent management of the environment.
All this, by means of the concept of dynamic security, will be necessary in
order to adapt the new balances of power into a new world order, which
must arrive framed by human security and sustainable development.
Key words
Conflict, China, borders, limits, geo-political, geo-strategy, the U.S.

«… The essential problem is not China’s conduct but the growth in its all-
around magnitude.
Riders in a crowded elevator cabin into which an extremely fat Mr. China
has just stepped in must react self-protectively if he is becoming fatter at
a rapid rate, squeezing them against the walls -even if he is entirely un-
threatening, and indeed affable. True, the crowded elevator cabin already
contained an even fatter, louder, and frequently violent Mr. America, but
simply because he had long been fellow rider, almost everybody had over
the decades come to a satisfactory accommodation with his noisy bulk...
the approach... it is frankly deterministic. Instead of seeing leaders striving
to act pragmatically in pursuit of their goals and preferences within the
operative political constraints, I see them as trapped by the paradoxes of
the logic of strategy, which imposes its own imperatives, all the more so
when they retain the delusion of free choice in the presence of conflict.
Were it not so, the history of humanity would not to be a record of its cri-
mes and follies.»2
LUTTWAK, Edward N. (2012). «The Rise of China vs. the Logic of Strategy». London,
2
Harvard University Press. Pp. 6-7.
362
http://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/docs/refmaps.html.
Introduction
«The Continental-Maritime split personality of China distinguishes East

Asia from its competing realms. The Maritime Realm, with its seaman’s
point of view, is the open system sector whose outlook is based upon ex-
change -of peoples, goods, and ideas. Heartlandic Russia, with its lands-
man’s perspective, is inward facing. It has traditionally pursued a closed
system based upon internal resources, opened on a limited basis by its
large-scale energy export. China encompasses both of these contrasting
world orientations, retaining its repressive, top-down Communist gover-
nance apparatus, while encouraging a market-oriented economy. The
competition is played out within two different geographical arenas ¬-in the
North and the Interior and in the «Golden Coast»- with varying political,
economic, and cultural outlooks. Howe to reconcile the geopolitical contra-
dictions that grow out of these two outlooks represents China’s greatest
internal geopolitical challenge.»3
3
COHEN, Saul Bernard. Geopolitics: TheGeography of International Relations. Second
edition (2009). Maryland, Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, Inc. P. 254. The three stra-
363
Produced by the Author

On August 8, the journalist Thomas L. Friedman, interviewing President
Obama, began by asking him if, unlike its perception of the post-World-
War-II U.S. as the indispensable nation for the integration and formation
of the new world order, the world might at this time be judging him as
President of the disintegration of the system. To which Obama, admitting
to limited chaos, replied that he considers this opinion as something in-
evitable on the road, always difficult, towards the creation of a new world
order marked by globalization and the integration of trade. Along this
road he pointed to China, among other factors, as one of the key elements
which must evolve for the structuring of the new order. In the case of Chi-
na, he stated that she should evolve from a position of a «free rider»4 with
features of a dominant regional power, towards a position of a committed
global geopolitical actor; comments which naturally provoked a Chinese
tegic domains, according to the work quoted, would be: «the area of East Asia, domi-
nated by China and embracing North Korea and a separate geopoliticalregion, Indo-
china, which includes Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia; continental Euroasia…dominated
by Russia…extending like the inside of a half moon from the Baltic, through Eastern
Europe and the Black Sea, Central Asia and Mongolia, tjo the Korean Peninsula; and
the maritime environment, dependant on trade from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans…
dominated by the U.S.
4
«They ride free. And they have acted with absolute freedom for the past 30 years.
And they’ve done very well thanks to that behaviour.» http://nytimes.com/video/opi-
nion/100000003048414/obama-on-the-world.html?src=xps. Visited August 14 2014.
364
The China and its neighborhood. The key test for...
reaction. Thus, an editorial in the People’s Daily pointed out that » (...) it is
the United States which has behaved like a ‘free rider’ with its so-called
‘pivot to Asia’ «, in opposition to what the same editorial described as
years of Chinese diplomatic initiatives in which she had promoted friend-
ly relations and trade with her Asiatic neighbors.5
This geopolitical vision of China is widespread in the West, perfectly expli-
cated by Robert D. Kaplan in his book «The Revenge of Geography», when
in its Chapter 9, «The Geography of Chinese Power», he refers to a dis-
turbing quote from Mackinder about the yellow danger to world freedom,
as enjoying a privileged position to lead the world together with the U.S.,
«building for a quarter of mankind a new civilization, neither too Oriental,
nor too Western».6
Not very far from this viewpoint would be a review of the Russian military
doctrine of 2009, which expressly reserves to itself the right to a first use
of nuclear arms, maintaining a large arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons
while defending a posture closed to any agreement as to its reduction.
Joseph Nye, in «The Future of Power», reasons that this is the same pos-
ture the U.S. used during the Cold War to counter Russian conventional
military superiority, which would explain a similar Russian response to
Chinese military superiority in the Far East.7
Along the same lines, the National Security Strategy reminds us:
«Asia stands in the center of the geopolitical reordering which antici-
pates the coming world. Some of its great countries - China, in parti-
cular - are becoming consolidated as poles of influence in the interna-
tional community, emerging and standing out as key elements in the
new strategic panorama. The focal points of tension concentrated in
Afghanistan, Pakistan, North Korea or those related to Chinese territo-
rial claims affect the entire international community. At the same time,
factors of stability are the economic growth of large countries like Chi-
na or India which, on the other hand, have also become relevant actors
in Africa and Latin America.»8
This Western viewpoint is very far from being shared by Chinese autho-
rities, who describe the development of their country as a formidable
challenge, and therefore, require international support and solidarity.9
5
The New York Times: «Obama’s ‘Free Rider» Comment Draws Chinese Criticism». By
BREE FENG August 13, 2014.
6
KAPLAN, Robert D. «The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us about Coming
Conflicts and the Battle against Fate.» (2012) Random House. New York. Pp. 188-189
7
NYE Jr., Joseph S. The Future of Power. (2011) New York. Public Affairs. P. 172.
8
National Security Strategy 2013: A Shared Project. Presidency of the Government.
Spain.
9
Garcia Sanchez, Ignacio. Analysis of Chinese Security Strategy. http://www.ieee.es/
Galerias/ficheros/docs analisis/2011/DIEEEA282011 Chinese Security StrategyAnaly-
365
This viewpoint is reflected in its White Paper on China’s Armed Forces,

where it is opposed to any type of hegemonic conduct and also, as being
contrary to military alliances, fixes the geopolitical framework upon two
bases: peace and development. It identifies multipolarity, cultural diver-
sity and the information age as global tendencies. It emphasizes as nega-
tive geostrategical tendencies the following: the increase of hegemonical
conduct with neo-interventionist policies; the difficulties of distinguishing
between traditional and non-traditional threats to security; and the be-
ginning of a new arms race in the area; in addition to concentrating on the
Far Eastern scenario, it points specifically to two actors as their principal
promotors, Japan and the U.S.10 Thus, the Geopolitical Overview of Con-
flicts keeps a constant eye on this scenario, and in its first appearance,
analyzed the conflict on the Korean Peninsula.11The following year it re-
viewed the tensions in the South China Sea12 and, in the preceding edition,
centered on the open conflicts in China’s interior, with special emphasis
on the situation in Taiwan, a suspended conflict which, as in the case of
the armistice signed between the two Koreas, keeps the two economic
giants of this century in a state of constant strategic tension.
Meanwhile, in accord with the annual evaluation of Chinese military de-
velopment, the U.S: Department of Defense continues underlining in its
first paragraph that «Preparation for a potential conflict in the Straits of
Taiwan,which includes dissuading or defeating intervention by a third
party, continues to be the principal focal point and the prime factor in
Chinese military spending...»13 On the horizon stand the words of Mao, on
the 21st of October, 1975, quoted by Kissinger: «It is better that (the island
of Taiwan) be in their hands. And if you were to hand it over to me again, I
wouldn’t want it, because it is not the right moment.There is a great group
of counterrevolutionaries there. Within a hundred years we’re going to
want it, (pointing with his hand) and we’re going to fight to get it.»14
Continuing with this interest in the region, this chapter deals with trans-
national conflicts, which the book quoted at the beginning of the following
section locates within the second ring of security. This would involve up
to 22 actors, including the U.S., and which range from Japan to the East,
sis JGS.pdf White Paper, China’sPeaceful Development (September 2011). Beijing, Infor-
mation office of the State Council.
10
White Paper on China’s Armed Forces: The Diversified Employment of China’s Ar-
med Forces (April 2013). Beijing, Information Office of the State Council.
11
GARCIA SANCHEZ, Ignacio. Geopolitical Overview of Conflicts 2011: Chapter XII, Ko-
rea, The Dream of a Reunited and Denuclearized Peninsula (2011). Madrid, Ministry of
Defense.
12
MACKINLAY FERREIRÓS, Alejandro. Geopolitical Overview of Conflicts 2012: Chapter
XV, South China Sea (2012).Madrid, Ministry of Defense.
13
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE. Annual Report to Congress: Military and
Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2014. Washington.
14
KISSINGER, Henry (2011). «On China». New York, the Penguin Press. P. 307.
366
passing through Vietnam in the South, India in the Southwest and Russia
in the North.15
Two fundamental theses are presented throughout the chapter. The first,
set forth by Kaplan16, refers to a possible strategic calculation error cau-
sing a minor conflict to shift into a major conflict. The second, worked out
by Nye and widely debated, is centered on the inevitability of conflict de-
veloped by Thucydides in his work on the Pelopponesion War, stemming
from the rise of Athens in the face of the hegemonic power of Sparta, but
from the angle that the belief in the inevitability of cycles of history was
the main cause of the conflict.
Background to conflict
«On the borders, the authorities face a second ring of security

concerns, involving China’s relations with about twenty adjacent
countries. No other country, with the exception of Russia, has a
greater number of neighbors. Numbers apart, China’s near vicinity
is singularly complex. The contiguous states inlcude: seven of the
world’s fifteen largest countries (India, Pakistan, Russia, Japan,
the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam — each with a population
of over 89 million); five countries with whom China has been at
war at some point in the last seventy years (Russia, South Korea,
Japan, Vietnam, India); and at least nine countries with unstable
regimes (such as North Korea, the Philippines, Myanmar/Burma,
Butan, Nepal, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikhistan and Kirgukistan).
China has had border conflicts with each one of its twenty im-
mediate neighbors since 1949, although the majority have been
resolved. None of the neighboring states perceives that their vital
national interests coincide with those of China. The most impor-
tant neighbors are China’s historic rivals, and the smallest resist
Chinese influence. Complicating policy in the second ring is the
presence of Taiwan.17 Finally, the second ring includes the twen-
ty-second actor, whose presence represents the single greatest
challenge to Chinese security: the United States, although located
some thousands of miles away, casts a powerful shadow over the
Chinese environment via the Pacific Command, with its general
headquarters in Honolulu, but its major military base in Guam, the
Pacific island located 6,000 miles from the American continent but
15
NATHAN, Andrew J. and SCOBELL, Andrew (2012). China’s Search for Security».
New York Columbia Universiy Press.
16
KAPLAN, Robert D. «Asia’s Cauldron. The South China Sea and the End of a Stable
Pacific». 2014 Random House. New York.
17
GARCÍA SÁNCHEZ, Ignacio. Geopolitical Overview of Conflicts 2013: Chapter XII, The
Chinese Interior Ring. Strength or Weakness? (201x). Madrid, Ministry of Defense.
367
only 2,000 kilometers from China; a naval presence dominating

China’s southern and eastern seas and various types of defen-
se agreements with the countries on its periphery: South Korea,
Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, India, Pakistan,
Afghanistan and Kirgukhistan, in addition to its economic and po-
litical influence throughout the region. Thus, China’s immediate
periphery has good reason to claim the title of the most difficult
geopolitical environment on earth for a great power».18
In order to understand this geopolitical environment of China, which Lu-
cian W. Pye, the U.S.-educated Chinese scholar, defines as «a civilization
attempting to be a nation-state», Samuel B. Cohen emphasizes that:
«The defeat of the U.S. in the Vietnamese War, and the collapse of the
Soviet Union permitted China to broaden its base of power in East Asia,
as well as to take on a more important role in the Asia-Pacific basin
and in the southern and central regions of Asia. In a quarter of a cen-
tury, China has become a recognized world power and has managed to
forge a third geostrategic sphere, which competes all over the world
with the Eurasian continent and command of the seas...»19
As Felipe Fernandez-Armesto20 explains, China, like all civilizations of its
time, initially depended on the mass production of a single type of food, in
this case millet. Native to China were two varieties of this grain, of which
traces are to be found in archaeological deposits dating back to 5,000
years b.C.
Both are drought-resistant and tolerant of alkaline soils, and allowed the
first Chinese dynasties to achieve two of the marked characteristics of
Chinese evolution: a great density of population and the maintainance of
a formidable standing army. Thus, expansion into the south following the
course of the Yangtze River provided it with the symbol of abundance
which has remained inseparably united with Chinese development: rice.
At the same time, it joined the two agrarian cultures, the cool dry millet
zones and the warm humid rice areas. In this way, the bases were esta-
blished for the development of its two cultural keys: Taoism and, funda-
mentally, Confucionism.
«Thousands of years in surroundings of national historic and cultural
egocentrism have led to the current perspective of China’s position,
the vision of China as »the Middle Kingdom», the center of the world…
This Central Kingdom stood out because of the condition provided by
18
NATHAN, Andrew J. and SCOBELL, Andrew (2012). «China’s Search for Security».
New York, Columbia Univeresity Press,pp. 3-5.
19
COHEN, Samuel B.: op. Cit., p. 253.
20
FERNÁNDEZ ARMESTO, Felipe (2002). «Civilizations: Culture, Ambition and the
Transformation of Nature». New York, Simon and Schuster, p.212.
368
agrarian culture, the essence of the civilized world. What there was be-
yond the limits of this agrarian world held no importance, since it was
inhabited by uncivilized nomads, «the barbarians.»21
Thus, and in order to confront that «most difficult geopolitical environ-
ment in the world for a great power», Deng Xiaoping, architect of the Chi-
nese miracle, dictated a series of instructions22 which may be considered
legacy for the new Chinese geopolitical vision. In these, he requested pru-
dence, calmness and a willingness reserved for holding to a defensive
posture, which would set as a priority the reinforcement of security. This
outlook is reflected in the latest edition of the White Paper on Defense:
«China has a difficult task in order to achieve national unification and
ensure its territorial integrity and the defense of its interests. Some coun-
try has reinforced its military alliances in the Asian Pacific, increasing
its military presence in the region, which provokes frequent situations of
tension.»23
M. Taylor Fravel24 concludes his study »Strong Borders, Secure Nation:
Cooperation and Conflict in China’s Territorial Disputes» with three main
ideas:
1. China has never been very predisposed to use force in its terri-
torial disputes, being one of the states least inclined to initiate a
conflict.
2. Most of the territorial compromises reached have their explana-
tion in internal threats to the security of the regime.
3. China follows a negative model in the harshness of its claims,
using force when she faces powerful opponents who could weaken
her position, or when she controls little or none of the territory she
is claiming.
In this sense, the Chinese authorities have reached bilateral treaties or
agreements with the following countries: Afghanistan, to whom they
have conceded 100% of its claims to an area of some 7,381 Km2; Ta-
jikistan, 96% of 28,430 Km2; Nepal, 94% of 2,476 Km2; Burma, 82% of
1,909 Km2; Butan, with which there exists an agreement for the main-
21
COHEN, Saul Bernard. Geopolitics: The Geopraphy of International Relations. Se-
cond edition (2009). Maryland, Rowland and Littlefield Publishers, Inc. P. 263.
22
«The instructions were austere and concise. Written in a traditional Chinese poetic
style, they made up two documents: an instruction of 24 characters and an explanation
of 12 restricted to high office-holders. The political explanation of 12 characters more
restricted among the principal leaders, said the following:<The enemy troops are out-
side the walls. They are stronger than we. We must at principally on the defensive.»
KISSINGER, Henry: op. cit., pp. 437-439.
23
White Paper on China’s Armed Forces: «The Diversified Employment of China’s
Amed Forces», Pekin, April 2013. Informaion Office of the State Council.
24
FRAVEL, M- Taylor. «Strong Borders Secure Nation: Cooperation and Conflict in Chi-
na’s Territorial Disputes». (2008). Princeton University Press. New Jersay.
369
tainance of the status quo without a definitive abandonment of their

respective claims, 76% of 1,128 Km2; India, 74% of 125,000 Km2, al-
though this is a case of an agreement in principle, and the deployment
of troops, especially on the part of India, seems to indicate that the
situation may be considered as one of tense calm; Kirghistan, 68% of
3,656 Km2; Kazhakhistan, 66% of 2,420 Km2; Mongolia, 65% of 16,808
Km2; North Korea, 60% of 1,165 Km2; Laos and Vietnam, 50% with 18
and 227 Km2 , respectively; 48% of 1,000 Km2; and, finally, Pakistan,
40% of 8,806 Km2, but in this case the dispute is still pending between
Pakistan and India over Kashmir.25
As in this last case, a fundamentally multilateral feature characterizes
the conflicts in her South Sea, specifically in two groups of islands: Pa-
racelso (or Xisha, its Chinese name) and Spratly (or Nansha, its Chinese
name).26 The former are an ancient dispute between China and Vietnam,
which was settled by the delimitation of jurisdictional waters in the Gulf
of Tonkin.27 The resolution of this old conflict, maintained with France as
colonial power and which led China to defend an old town of fishermen
on the island of «The Tail of the White Dragon» (or Bailongwei, its Chine-
se name) was settled with the government of North Vietnam when the
U.S. began to demonstrate increasing support for South Vietnam, in addi-
tion to the creation in 1955 of SEATO28 as a way of containing Communist
expansion.
In 1957, Mao handed over full sovereignty over this small island, with its
5 Km2 surface, to Hanoi. From the time of this transfer,
«China has never again offered to compromise over the sovereignty
of an offshore island. Instead, apart from the episodes of escalation,
China has chosen to delay settlement in all its other offshore island
disputes, a strategy that reflects Deng Xiao Ping`s maxim for these
conflicts to «set aside conflict [and] pursue joint development». In
the Paracels delay has given China time to strengthen its claim...
In the Spratlys, China has held talks with other claimants, but it
has never participated in negotiations over sovereignty... Delay has
also dominated China’s approach to the Senkakus. China and Japan
have never held talks over the sovereignty of these islets and rocks.
The two side did discuss the islands in negotiations leading up to
25
Ibid., pp. 46, 47.
26
MACKINLAY LEICEAGA, Alejandro. Ops cit.
27
This is the cause of the reduction of the famous map of Chinese maritime claims
from 11 strokes to 9. Recently a new vertical map of China has been released, published
by the «Hunan Map Publishiing House» on which the South Sea islands are shown on
the same scale as the continent.
28
The Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) was a regional defense organiza-
tion which functioned from 1955 to 1977, made up of Australia, France, New Zealand,
Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, Great Britain and the U.S.
370
the 1978 peace treaty, but only to ensure that the dispute would be
exclude from the agreement... Deng described the delaying strategy,
stating: «It doesn’t matter if this question is shelved for some time,
say, ten years. Our generation is not wise enough to find common
language on this question. Our next generation will certainly be wi-
ser. They will certainly find a solution acceptable to all’» 29
The Senkakus (or Diaoyu, the Chinese name) consist of a group of eight
uninhabited islands and islets whose total surface comes to some 5
Km2, and are located in the East China Sea, 170 Km. from Taiwan and
the Ryukyu Archipelago, 330 kilometers from continental China and
410 Km. from Okinawa. In this case, China’s first claim30 was asser-
ted in 1970, in support of Taiwan31 and before the U.S. transferred
its administration to Japan, in accord with the Okinawa agreement on
reversion finalized in 1971.The area has seen a delay in the joint ex-
ploitation of its potential resources. Although in June of 2008 the two
countries came to an agreement for the exploitation of natural gas
in Chungxiao/Shirakaba and Longjing/Asurao, in 2009 the agreement
was broken when the Chinese government declared its sovereignty
over the fields, which continued with a series of unilateral actions by
both parties.
In the group of islets in the Spratlys, around 50, with a total surface of
less than 5 Km2, of which China occupied seven between 1988 and 1994,32
very little exploration has taken place, and currently there is no active
exploration.
However, «the dispute over the sovereignty and demarcation of the ma-
ritime limits in the area are not the principal hurdle to its exploitation,
since the waters in contention present major technological and geolo-
gical challenges due to deep valleys and stong underwater currents.
In addition, the region is lashed seasonally by tropical storms and
typhoons...»33
29
FRAVEL, M. Taylor. Op. Cit., pp. 269-270.
30
The Chinese position is documented in the White Paper «Diaoyu Dao, An Inherent
Territory of China» published by the State Council in September 2012: http://www.gov.
cn/english/official/2012-09/25/content 2232763.htm. The Japanese position is docu-
mented on the Embassy’s official page in Spanish: http://www.es.emb-japan.go.jp/po-
liticaexterior/territory/senkaku/index.html.
31
All claims of sovereignty on the ocean rim are sustained by China and Taiwan. In this
context China always supports Taiwan in disputes, especially fishingboat incidents with
neighboring countries, as if dealing with a region of China, strengthening the concept
of a single China.
32
The Chinese occupation began after the Philippines (6 islets), Malaysia (5), Taiwan
(1) and Vietnam (31) began to establish themselves on some of them.
33
GARCIA SANCHEZ, Ignacio J. «Energy and Geostrategy 2014. Chapter V. The Rise of
China and Her Energy Supply.» Ministry of Defense 2014. Madrid. Pp. 273-275.
371
EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), «East China Sea.» Last Updated: Sep-
tember 25, 2012.
EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), «East China Sea». Last Updated
September 25, 2012
372
«... when people speak of the rising power of China or India, they tend
to point to the large populations and increased economic or military
resources of those countries. But weather the capacity that those re-
sources imply can actually be converted into preferred outcomes will
depend upon the contests and the country’s skill in converting resour-
ces into strategies that will produce preferred outcomes... Power-con-
version strategies turn out to be a critical variable that does not receive
enough attention. Strategies relate means to ends, and those that com-
bine hard and soft power resources successfully in different contests
are the key to smart power.»34
The fifth generation of Communist leaders of the Central Committee of
the Chinese Communist Party, elected at the 18th National Congress held
in November 2012, continues along a path seeking consolidation of so-
cial cohesion and domestic development with more balanced growth.
The slogan of the new leadership team, as especially expressd by its pre-
sident, Xi Jimping: «China’s dream, the people’s dream.»
«The development model stands as a fundamental element of her na-
tional security.a demand for her citizens and a necessity that all coun-
tries must support.achieved the objectives foreseen in its two first sta-
ges: doubling the Gross National Product (GNP) by 1980 to attend to the
basic necessities of her population and quadrupling it by the end of the
last century to acquire a basic level of prosperity. The third objective,
set for mid-century on the centenary of the foundation of the People’s
Republic of China (1949), would come into being with general prospe-
rity and the modernization of the country within a harmonious State. In
this sense she is declared to be a nation on the road to development.35
Thus, for the past three decades the Chinese economy has grown at
a rate of 9.9% and since 2010 has surpassed Japan’s GNP (4.729 bi-
llion dollars36, currently in 5th position) turning itself into the third world
economic power(13.390 billion) behind the U.S. (16.720 billion) and the
European Union (15.850 billion).Although this growth, when distributed
among its population, 9,800 dollars, holds it to a modest position, the
121st, still far from the 52,800 dollars of the U.S. (14th), the 39.600 of Tai-
wan (28th), the 37,100 of Japan(36th), the 34,500 dollars of he E.U.(41st),
the 33,200 of South Korea (42nd) and slightly below the world average
of 12,700 dollars.
34
NYE Jr., Joseph S. The Future of Power. (2011) New York. Public Affairs. P. 10.
35
GARCÍA SÁNCHEZ, Ignacio. Analysis Document of the ieee.es 028/11 Analysis of
Chinese Security Strategy. Summary of the ieee.es, «White Paper: China’s Peaceful De-
velopment «. September 2011.
36
DRAE. Billion: a million million, expressed by the unit followed by twelve zeroes.
373
But if current figures speak for themselves, demonstrating amazing

growth which has allowed more than 650 million people37 to rise out of
poverty, the outlook for the future may be even more amazing. However,
the risks, at both domestic and foreign levels, continue to be major. Fun-
damental years for socio-economic development, according to forecasts
for growth at an annual rate of 5.4%, would be: 2018, with a per capita
income surpassing what is considered to be the critical level of develop-
ment in democracies, 12,000 dollars; and 2020, during which she would
surpass, at 13,624 dollars, the average world per capita income of 13,065
dollars.38
Aware of this goal, which implies passing through the so-called «mi-
ddle-income trap» : the trap of countries with per capita incomes of
between 12,000 and 14,000 dollars39, the basic objective of the new
politburo is to continue a policy of reforms which permits the Chinese
economy to compete with the developed economies and maintain cons-
tant, though moderate, growth. Fitting into this context were the acts
of exaltation of the figure of Deng Xioping, on the 110th anniversary of
his birth last August 10th, together with that of Xi Jimping as his natu-
ral continuator and defender of his policies, in detriment to the figure
of Mao Zedong and the commemoration of the 120th anniversary of his
birth last December 26th. This is of transcendental symbolic importance
if Mao—the «great helmsman»—is considered to have been the incarna-
tion of Chinese national pride, with more than 60 million deaths behind
37
Data from «The World Factbook». Visited August 20 2013: http://www.cia.gov/
library/publications/the-world-factbook/.
38
Scenario of visit reference 21 August 2014: http://www.eia.cov/oiaf/aeo/table-
browser/#relea-se=IEO2013&subject=0-IEO2013&table=42-IEO2013&region=0-0ca-
ses=Referen-ce-d041117.
39
The World Bank includes as medium-income countries a broad group of States
with a total of nearly 5 billion inhabitants, 23.9 billion dollars in Gross National Pro-
duct, growth of 4.8% and a 73% poverty rate. This classsification is in turn subdivided
into a low level, with a per capita income level of 2,068 (1,046 to 4,125) dollars and
39% urban population, and a high level with a per capita income of 7,540 (4,126 to
12,745) dollars and 68% urban population. http:/www.worldbank.org/en/country/mic.
«If countries cannot increase productivity through innovation (rather than continuing
to rely on foreign technology), they find themselves trapped (In today’s increasingly
globalized world, escaping the middle-income trap may be even more difficult. Eec-
khout and Jovanovic 2007). The concept of a middle-income trap has some empirical
backing. Latin America and the Middle East provide compelling support for the trap
hypothesis: in these two regions, most economies reached middle-income status as
early as the 1960s and 1970s and have remained there ever since (see figure BO.1.1a).
Of 101 middle-income economies in 1960, only 13 became high income by 2008 (see
figure BO.1.1b)—Equatorial Guinea; Greece; Hong Kong SAR, China; Ireland; Israel; Ja-
pan; Mauritius; Portugal; Puerto Rico; Republic of Korea; Singapore; Spain; and Taiwan,
China.» 2013 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development /The World Bank
and the Development Research Center of the State Council, P. R. China. «China 2030:
Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative Society»
374
him, while the figure of Deng represents China’s cultural superiority,

originating in the teachings of Confucius and incorporating the libe-
ral-reformist outlook, as well as the Chinese dream of becoming once
again the world’s model nation.
The great challenge is to unite the energies of this colossal nation behind the
lines of a controlled reform which, on the one hand, does not endanger the
one-party system, at the same time fighting the nepotism and corruption which
mar and delegitimize it. Meanwhile, the current leaders, with the firm legacy
of maintaining the inherited system and transmitting it to the next generation,
must transform an inherited legitimacy into a new legitimization which, suppor-
ted by economic results, is reinforced by international recognition, and a new
nationalism linked to a glorious cultural superiority identified with the Party.
And so, if domestically the great challenge is to achieve her socioecono-
mic development so as to be considered as part of the select group of de-
veloped nations, abroad it would be to maintain the fundamental bases of
the era of globalization and trade, but multilateralizing its structures and
functions. Within this context, her situation may be considered to be, as
Kaplan expresses it: «(...) with China penetrating into Central Asia, what
Mackinder calls the «Heartland», and the possibility of an increase in her
influence within Spykman’s «Land Ring», of which Southeast Asia and the
Korean Peninsula form a part.The land borders of China at the present
moment seem to present more opportunities than dangers».40
In this way, and transcending the bilateral principle in her foreign re-
lations, China heads the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (or SCO
in its English-language abbreviation); plays a fundamental role in the
Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation (or APEC in its English-language ab-
breviation); as a fundamental element in the resolution of disputes on its
maritime periphery, holds to the Declaration of the Code of Conduct with
all countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (or ASEAN in
its English-language abbreviation); considers essential the renovation of
the spirit of the five principles of peaceful coexistence41, an initiative es-
40
KAPLAN Robert D.: Op.cit, p. 211.
41
«China does not subscribe to the notion that a country is bound to seek hegemony
when it grows in strength. Hegemony or militarism is not in the genes of the Chine-
se. China will unswervingly pursue peaceful development because it is good for China,
good for Asia and good for the world.»
«The notion of dominating international affairs belongs to a different age, and such
attempts are doomed to failure.»
«Flexing military muscles only reveals a lack of moral ground or vision, rather than
reflecting one’s strength. Security can be solid and enduring only if it is based on moral
high ground and vision.»
«Talking about frontier defence, one cannot help thinking about China’s modern history
when the country was so weak and destitute that it was for everyone to bully.»
«Foreign aggressors broke China’s land and sea defences hundreds of times, plunging
the Chinese nation into the abysm of calamity,» Xi added, calling on people not to forget
375
tablished jointly by Burma, China and India which celebrated its 60th anni-
versary last June 28th in Peking, and which has been universally recogni-
zed by the international community, having become a reference point for
international relations; in addition, she has opened up to all corners of the
globe with the recently achieved status of observer on the Council of the
Artic and the free-trade accord with Iceland.
With its action abroad framed along these basic lines, an effort is be-
ing designed to reorient the global geopolitical framework of relations
by seeking greater multilateralism, seeking to distribute and restructure
the power centers so that evolution towards a greater balance becomes a
reality on a transformed stage, truly multipolar, where Chinese diploma-
cy can develop its traditional strengths. There is thus a clear example of
the pragmatism of its relations in the recent accord with Russia, the most
important yet signed by Gazprom42, rooted in the economic sanctions im-
posed by the U.S. and the European Union as a result of the annexation of
the Crimea and support for the Eastern Ukrainian separatists.
EIA. «Russia-China deal will supply Siberian natural gas to China’s northern, eastern
provinces». August 20, 2014.
In addition, the establishment of a Development Bank43 at the sixth mee-

ting of the BRICS last July 15th in Fortaleza, Brazil, together with the
creation of a contingency reserve (or CRA in its English-language abbre-
viation) holding a major total of 200 billion dollars, is an unmistakable
sign of the desire for a reform of the decision structures of the World
Bank and the IMF (International Monetary Fund), to accord with a dyna-
the «history of humiliation» and strengthen the borders, especially at sea.» Xi Jinping
keynote speech. BEIJING, June 29 (Xinhua).
42
EIA. «Russia-China deal will supply Siberian natural gas to China’s northern, eas-
tern provinces».
43
BARACUHY, Braz. The BRICS New Development Bank: A Geo-economic Game-Chan-
ger. 24 July 2014.
376
mic and changing geo-economic reality. But superimposed on this global

framework of spheres of influence, power, as Joseph Nye reminds us, is
no longer measured in terms of capacity of resources, but rather in terms
of the quality of achieving objectives. Brzezinski’s warning with respect
to a resurgence in the area of nationalism due to political-party interests
seems to confirm a tendency towards confrontation and violence, contai-
ned so far, and additionally towards rising tension, produced by an ever
more rapid succession of new crisis situations necessitating a system of
measures of trust and of more fluid, transparent and rapid relations.
And so, fishing-boat incidents repeat themselves, with confrontations
occasioning frequent sinkings: the most recent, a Chinese fishing ves-
sel near the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands; also, the announcement and mo-
vement of a Chinese petroleum prospecting station, which unleashed
uncontrolled fury in Vietenam against Chinese businesses, obliging their
withdrawal; in addition to military incidents, such as the overflight of a
Chinese Tupolev observer aircraft
by Japanese fighter planes, or of Chinese fighter planes over a P-8 Po-
seidon from the northamerican Navy, and the incident with the Cowpens
cruiser while it observed the manoeuvres of the new Chinese airplane
carrier Liaoning on its maiden cruise through the South China Sea from
the North Fleet base at Qingdao. This latter incident was contained by the
bridge-to-bridge converation between the officials of the U.S. cruiser and
the Chinese escort, favored by the routine participation of units of both
armies on manoeuvres, such as the recent RIMPAC 2014, and on custo-
mary exercises, such as that carried out by the flagship of the American
7th Fleet, «Blue Ridge», with the Chinese frigate «Yanchen», in this case
a search and rescue mission, with the additional participation of helicop-
ters from both Marines, preceded by a visit of the ship to the Chinese
North Fleet base.
We cannot forget, on this scale of incidents, the establishment of a new
area of identification in the East China Sea in November of 2013. This area
includes the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, and provoked an imme-
diate northamerican reaction with the overflying of the area by two B-52
strategic bombers, making clear their strategic capacity for freedom of
manoeuvre.
«The future of China is closely linked to the future of the world. China
systematically maintains an independent foreign policy adhering to the
five principles of: mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integri-
ty; bilateral non-agression; non-interference in the internal affairs of
others; reciprocal equality and benefits; and peaceful coexistence.Chi-
na constantly opposes imperialism, colonialism, and hegemonism.»44
Preamble to the Constitution of the People’s Republic of China. 14 March 2004.

44
377
The role of external actors http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/chi-

na/2013-11/27/c_132922674.htm.
In her article, »The future of politics will be decided in Asia, not Afghanistan
or Iraq, and the United States will be right at the center of the action», publi-
shed in «Foreign Policy» in October of 2011, Hillary Clinton announces the
geopolitical pivot, which has been confirmed by the Obama administra-
tion in its latest strategic directives45, doing no more than corroborating
the principle that: «history teaches us that changes of economic weight
come accompanied by corresponding strategic shifts.»46
As Nathan and Scobell state, «China’s attempt to pursue her interests
in a global context is legitimate, as is the interest of the U.S: in ensuring
that the international system continues with the notable evolution which
it has been enjoying...»47 In this sense, levelheadedness and reflection
are of major importance, not only as to her own policy of a strategic
rebalancing with the strengthening of the Asian-Pacific axis, favored
by a near-future energy autonomy and weakened by the budget cuts
necessary to reduce the serious fiscal deficit, but also in the policies of
support for her allies in the area, to create policies of moderation and
cooperation.
45
White House. «Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership. Priorities for 21st Century Defen-
se. Washington, January 2012.
46
White Paper: «Australia in the Century of Asia.» October 2012.
47
NATHAN, Andrew J. and SCOBELL, Andrew (2012). «China’s Search for Security».
New York, Columbia University Press. Page 358.
378
Along these lines of thought we are witnessing reinforcement of the mi-

litary alliances of the area,48 unconditional support for the constitutional
reform of the Japanese Prime Minister, and even more, recently, in the
visit of the Head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff49 to Vietnam, a possible raising
of the arms embargo. The Communist regime, which traditionally buys
its arms on the Russian market, as in the signing of a contract for the
acquisition of six Kilo-class conventional submarines, has confirmed that
Japan has authorized the sending of six Coast Guard ships.
Robert D. Kaplan emphasizes in his latest book «Asia’s Cauldron»50 and in
an article in Foreign Policy «The Guns of August in the East China Sea: Dark
echoes of world war lurk in Asia’s dangerous, contested waters.» of March
17, 2014, the phrase of Aristotle quoted by Shakespeare, to the effect
that conflicts are not begun in order to achieve small things, but due to
those small things. As well, in the book quoted above reference is made
to a discussion as to whether current American policy can be viewed as
contentious, concluding that it can, and looking back to discussions with
Chinese analysts in which the U.S. was asked not to be manipulated by
her neighbors, since «China would not tolerate a coalition of small coun-
tries with the U.S. and against her.»
«Though the islands in dispute in the East and South China seas are in
many cases barren and below water during high tide, as Aristotle wro-
te, conflicts arise «not over small things but from small things.» The
assassination of the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand that sparked
World War I was one such small thing. Claims in the Pacific, howe-
ver petty, if they are tied to vital interests, can lead to war. Indeed, the
primordial quest for status still tragically determines the international
system -- just as it did prior to World War I. And these islets have be-
come, because of their very barren abstraction, logos of nationhood in
a global media age.
Remember that the Pacific is the geographic organizing principle of
world economic order to no less an extent than Europe was in 1914.
The South China Sea functions as the throat of the Western Pacific and
Indian oceans, where the most crowded global sea routes coalesce -- the
Mitteleuropa of the 21st century. The oil transported here from the Middle
48
TOW, William. «Understanding the Persistence of American Alliances and Partners-
hips in the Asia-Pacific.» Asia Pacific Bulletin. No. 276. August 14 2014.
49
New York Times. «In China’s Shadow: U.S. Courts Old Foe Vietnam.» By PERLEZAUG,
Jane, August 16, 2014.
50
KAPLAN, Robert D. «Asia’s Cauldron. The South China Sea and the end of a stable
Pacific.» 2014 Random House. New York.
379
East en route to Asian megacities is triple the amount that passes through
the Suez Canal and 15 times the amount that transits the Panama Canal.»51
Within this context, and keeping in mind all the countries of the area, it
seems that, with the new generation of leaders, we are witnessing a na-
tionalist drift of which there were echoes in the analysis document «Six
Factors in Understanding the Korean Peninsula», quoting a speech by Br-
zesinski, on December 11 2012, during the gala dinner of the «U.S.-Chi-
na Policy Foundation». In his dissertation, he warned of the possiblity of
a slippage in the situation towards the «nationalist fervor which would
reproduce in Asia conflicts similar to the ones Europe suffered in the
twentieth century, over natural resources, territory or national power.» In
particular, this referred to Shinzo Abe due to the historic connotations it
implies and the reinterpretation of his constitutional charter in order to:
«(...) In accord with Article 9 of the Constitution. Up to now, the Govern-
ment has considered that the «use of force» is only allowed when there
occurs an «armed attack» against Japan. However, due to the fact that
the security environment of the region has been radically transformed....
the Government has arrived at the conclusion that it is not allowed only
when an armed attack against Japan takes place, but also when such an
attack is produced against another country in close relation to Japan...»52
EIA. U.S. Energy Information Administration. «South China Sea» Last Updated: February 7, 2013.
51
KAPLAN, Robert D. Foreign Policy. «The Guns of August in the East China Sea: Dark
echoes of world war lurk in Asia’s dangerous, contested waters.» March 17 2014.
52
White Paper: Defense of Japan 2014. http://www.mod.go.jp/e/publ/w paper/2014.html.
380
EIA. U.S. Energy Information Administration. «South China Sea» Last Updated: February 7,
2013.
In this context, the European Union, which is facing a major crisis in its
near eastern and southern vicinity, must become a balancing power, with
a pragmatic and stabilizing vision which would help, through its annual
summit meetings with China organized on three pillars: political, social and
economic, to accommodate its new role as a global power, with an integra-
ting vision of «everyone wins». Thus, strengthening its trade relations with
the U.S. and China, engaging the latter as its principal economic partner in
Asia, its main supplier of imported products, and the second trade partner
after the U.S., following the path towards the achievement of a bilateral
agreement giving coherence to the negotiations of its member States.
«One of the chief messages of this book..., is that the international system
is subject to constant changes, not only those caused by the day-to-day
actions of statesmen and the ebb and flow of political and military events,
but also those caused by the deeper transformations in the foundations of
world power, which in time make their way through to the surface...
... as the international system is concerned, wealth and power, or eco-
nomic strength and military strength, are always relative and should
be seen as such...
381
Those who assume that mankind would not be so foolish as to beco-

me involved in another ruinously expensive Great Power war perhaps
need reminding that that belief was also widely held for much of the
nineteenth century...
Each of today’s large Powers... is therefore left grappling with the age-
old dilemmas of rise and fall, with the shifting pace of productive growth,
with technological innovations, with change in the international scene,
with the spiraling cost of weapons, with alteration in the power balance.
Those are not developments which can be controlled by any one state,
or individual. To paraphrases Bismarck’s famous remarks, all of these
Powers are traveling on «the stream o Time», which can «neither crea-
tes nor direct» but upon which they can «steer with more or less skill
and experience». How they emerge form that voyage depends, to a large
degree, upon the wisdom of the governments in Washington, Moscow,
Tokyo, Peking, and the various Europeans capitals.» 53
China’s immediate vicinity represents the acid test of its peaceful develop-
ment, through mutual trust and shared effort of all of the actors involved in
the security and development of a region which, including the Indian subcon-
tinent, will by 2050 contain more than 75% of the world’s population. Its inte-
gration and growth are essential to the geopolitical equilibrium of the planet.
This is a challenge which will demonstrate the capacity of the internatio-
nal system of government, at regional and global levels, to overcome the
fatalism associated with the inevitability of historic cycles. On the road to
human development, the social conquests, the struggle against poverty
and marginalization, and the central nature of human rights and personal
dignity compose a scenario in which human security becomes the funda-
mental pivot of the history which remains to be written.
The gravitational balance of the universe is reproduced on a human scale
in the adaptations of the geopolitical structure to the weights and shapes
of the actors who compose it. The laws of attraction and repulsion must
compose an organic whole, in order to adapt to the normal evolution of
societies; their integration and capacity for connection should be an ele-
ment favoring the adaptability of their structures.
Thus, China stands at the center of the system of geopolitical equilibrium
of the terrestrial universe, a scenario in which the forces of attraction are
supported by the idealist-humanistic vision of a new world order, with
a positive-sum, or win-win situational outlook; while those of repulsion
find their support in the new economic realism of an amoral character, in
a new cycle of the inevitable order imposed by the balance of power, with
a zero-sum outlook.
53
KEENEDY, Paul. «The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. Economic change and mili-
tary conflict from 1500 to 2000.» Random House. New York 1987. Pp. 536-540.
382
This is a geopolitical position vulnerable to relations with the Russian

energy giant, nostalgic for a past it has no wish to forget; with the Eu-
ropean Union, along a silk route full of groups in eternal strife; with the
emerging power of India, with its great human factor, and its meeting
point on the chaotic Indochinese peninsula; with the hopeful African con-
tinent, via its principal maritime expansion space, the Indian ocean; and
finally, with the American continent and so back to the European and
African continents, with Japan, Australia and the Korean Peninsula, past,
present and future of a junction between the two geopolitical poles of the
new order.
383
384
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.html.
385
Import - exports
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.html.
386
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.htm.
387
Bibliography
Books:
BRZEZINSKI, Zbigniew (2012). Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of
Global Power. New York. Basic Books.
BUSH, Richard, (2010). «The Perils of Proximity: China-Japan Security Rela-
tions». Washington. Brookings Institution Press.
COHEN, Saul Bernard (2009 Second edition). «Geopolitics: the geography
of international relations». Maryland, Rowman & Littlefield Publishers,
Inc.
FERNANDEZ ARMESTO, Felipe (2002). «Civilizations: culture, ambition, and
the transformation of nature». New York, Simon & Schuster.
FRAVEL, M. Taylor (2008). «Strong Borders Secure Nation: Cooperation and
Conflict in China’s Territorial Disputes». New Jersey. Princeton Univer-
sity Press.
GARCÍA SÁNCHEZ, Ignacio. (2011). «Panorama Geopolítico de los Conflic-
tos 2011: Capítulo XII, Corea, el sueño de una península reunificada y
desnuclearizada». («Geographic Overview of Conflicts 2011: Chapter
XII, Korea, the dream of a reunited and denuclearized peninsula»). Ma-
drid, Ministry of Defense.
GARCÍA SÁNCHEZ, Ignacio. (2013). «Panorama Geopolítico de los Conflic-
tos 2013: Capítulo XII, El anillo interior chino, ¿fortaleza o debilidad?».
(«Geographic Overview of Conflict, 2013: Chapter XII, China’s Inner
Ring: Fortress or Weakness?».) Madrid, Ministry of Defense.
HUNTINGTON, Samuel P. (2003). «The Clash of Civilizations and the Remak-
ing of the World Order». New York. Simon & Schuster.
KAPLAN, Robert D. (2012). «The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells
Us about Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate». New York. Ran-
dom House.
KAPLAN, Robert D. (2014). «Asia’s cauldron. The South China Sea and the
end of a stable Pacific». New York. Random House.
KEENEDY, Paul. (1987), «The rise and fall of the great powers. Economic
change and military conflict from 1500 to 2000». New York. Random
House.
KISSINGER, Henry (2011). «On China». New York, the Penguin Press. LUT-
TWAK, Edward N. (2012). «The rise of China vs. the logic of strategy».
London, Harvard University Press.
MACKINLAY FERREIRÓS, Alejandro. (2012). «Panorama Geopolítico de los
Conflictos 2012: Capítulo XV, Mar meridional de China». («Geopolitical
Overview of Conflict: Chapter XV, South China Sea».) Madrid, Ministry
of Defense.
388
NATHAN, Andrew J. and SCOBELL, Andrew (2012). «China’s Search for Se-
curity». New York, Columbia University Press.
NYE Jr., Joseph S. The Future of Power. (2011). New York. Public Affairs.
Documents and Artícles:
ASBC (Air Sea Battle Concept).12 May 2013.
BARACUHY, Braz. «The BRICS New Development Bank: A Geo-economic
Game-Changer». 24 de julio de 2014.
Constitution of the People’s Republic Of China. Amended on March 14,
2004, Congressional Research Service. U.S.-Taiwan Relationship:
Overview of Policy Issues. 23 de julio de 2013.
Congressional Research Service. Japan-U.S. Relations: Issues for Con-
gress. 2 de agosto de 2013. www.crs.gov.
Análisis Document, Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies: «Geopolitical
vision of election results. January 2012.» 1 February 2012. www.ieee.
es.
EIA. «Russia-China deal will supply Siberian natural gas to China’s northern,
eastern provinces.» August 20, 2014.
National Security Strategy 2013: A shared project. Presidency of the Gov-
ernment. Spain.
GARCÍA SÁNCHEZ, Ignacio (2013): Summary of Defense White Paper:
«The Diversified Employment of China’s Armed Forces». www.ieee.es.
GARCÍA SÁNCHEZ, Ignacio. Analysis of Chinese Security Strate-
gy. . http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/docs_analisis/2011/
DIEEEA28-2011AnalisisEstrategiaChinaSeguridadIJGS.pdf
CLINTON, Hillary. «The future of politics will be decided in Asia, not Afghan-
istan or Iraq, and the United States will be right at the center of the ac-
tion». Foreign Policy. October de 2011.
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development /The World Bank
and the Development Research Center of the State Council, P. R. Chi-
na. (2013). «China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative
Society».
JOAC (Joint Operational Access Concept). 17 enero 2012.
National Institute for Defence Studies (NIDS Japan). China Security Re-
port 2012.
New York Times. «Obama’s ‘Free Rider’ Comment Draws Chinese Criti-
cism». By FENG, Bree. 13 de agosto de 2014.
http://www.nytimes.com/video/opinion/100000003048414/obama-on-
the-world.html?src=xps.
New York Times. «In China’s Shadow, U.S. Courts Old Foe Vietnam.» By
PERLEZAUG, Jane. August 16, 2014.
389
Office of the Secretary of Defense. (2014). «Annual Report to Congress:

Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of
China 2014». Washington.
People’s Daily editorial. The «China Dream» concept. Monday April 1st,
2013.
Senkaku. Postura japonesa.
http://www.es.emb-japan.go.jp/politicaexterior/territory/senkaku/in-
dex.html
TOW, William. «Understanding the Persistence of American Alliances and
Partnerships in the Asia-Pacific.» Asia Pacific bulletin. Number 276.
August 14, 2014.
Xinhuanet. http://spanish.xinhuanet.com/china/2013-09/04/c_132689262.
htm
Xinhuanet. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/chinesedream/
Xinhuanet . Xi Jinping keynote speech. BEIJING, June 29 2014.
White House. «Sustaining U.S. Global leadership. Priorities for 21st Century
Defense». Washington. January 2012.
White Paper (Octubre 2012). «Australia in the Century of Asia.»
White Paper (April 2013). «China’s Armed Forces: The Diversified Employ-
ment of China’s Armed Forces». Beijing, Information Office of the State
Council.
White Paper. (September 2011). «China’s Peaceful Development». Beijing,
Information Office of the State Council.
White Paper. (September 2012). «Diaoyu Dao, an Inherent Territory of Chi-
na». Beijing, Information Office of the State Council.
White Paper. Defense of Japan 2014. Ministry of Defence.
Websites:
http://chinaelectionsblog.net/ogi/
http://www.china.org.cn/
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/
tw.html
http://www.eia.gov/
http://english.gov.cn/index.htm
http://www.ieee.es/
http://lema.rae.es/drae/
http://www.nytimes.com
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
http://www.worldbank.org/
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/
390
The Philippines: drawing the claws of the separatists Chapter
fourteen
Summary
For the last forty years, constant separatist movements have succeeded
each other in south-eastern Philippines with the objective of defending a
cultural and religious identity and of proclaiming a Muslim State. In Oc-
tober of 2012, the Philippine government signed an agreement with the
armed group MILF, thus culminating 18 years of negotiations constantly
interrupted by violent clashes. The «Comprehensive Bangsamoro Agree-
ment» recognizes the autonomous—not independent—character of the
Moslem areas of Mindanao, grouped under the term «Bangsamoro». This
may be called a success, although the agreement does not, for the mo-
ment, guarantee stability. It may be foreseen that other insurgent groups,
dissatisfied with the agreement arrived at, may carry out isolated attacks
on the population and on the central government. The real thrust for sta-
bility will come from the potential of Mindanao for becoming the motor
for growth in the Philippines and therefore in the ASEAN area.
Key Words:
Mindanao, MILF, MNLF, BIFF, ASEAN, Bangsamoro.
391
The Philippines: drawing the claws of the separatists
Introduction
Mindanao is the second largest of the Philippine Islands. Its 20 million in-
habitants represent approximately a quarter of the Philippine population.
Mindanao is currently made up of 26 provinces, 33 cities, 422 towns and
six regions: the Zamboanga Peninsula, North Mindanao, South Mindanao
(known as Soccsksargen), Region XIII, the Davao Region and the Autono-
mous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).
Source: http://www.mindanaomaps.com/Mindamaps/MindaRegions.png
In a predominantly (82%) Catholic nation1, Mindanao holds the largest

Muslim community in the country2, a total of 5 million people belonging
1
Source: CIA the World FACTBOOK.
2
The Moslem population constitutes 5% of the total population of the Philippines.
Source: CIA the World FACTBOOK.
393
to thirteen ethnic-linguistic groups whose common denominator is the

Islamic religion3. Apart from Catholics and Moslems, there are an addi-
tional 18 ethnic groups of the indigenous population, who are known as
the «Lumad».
The conflict in Mindanao is complex. Various actors and factors converge
within it, making its resolution a difficult one. A number of different ar-
med groups operate in the region, each seeking a different goal. Some,
such as the NPA/CPP (New People’s Army/Communist Party of the Phili-
ppines), are opposed to the policies of the central government. For others,
the aim behind armed struggle is achievement of an autonomous status
for the Western region of the island in recognition of their historic rights.
Within this category there should be included such armed Moslem-se-
paratist groups, generically known as «moro», as the MNLF (Moro Na-
tional Liberation Front) and the MILF (Moslem Islamic Liberation Front).
Struggling for a more radical cause, the terrorist group ASG (Abu Sayyat
Group) intends to establish an Islamic State in the region. In addition, the
situation becomes even more complex when within a single community
other types of conflict arise, brought about by the internal struggle of
the local elites over power, illegal arms and drug traffic, and the income
generated by the exploitation of the region’s natural resources. Mindanao
is a land of fertile fields and enormous resources in fishing and minerals,
these latter being mainly gold and nickel.
Faced with this complexity, the central government and the internatio-
nal community have, in recent years, concentrated their efforts on ending
the conflict with the Islamic separatist groups.The key objectives of these
negotiations have been the achievement of stability in the region and the
establishment of the degree and structure of autonomy with which the
Western region of Mindanao may be governed in the future.
For the last forty years, continuous separatist movements have succee-
ded each other in the southeastern Philippines with the aim of defending
a cultural and religious identity based on Islam. This proclamation of Is-
lamic identity has been accompanied by a demand for the creation of an
autonomous state, governed by political institutions based on the model
of a sultanate.
The insurgency of Islamic separatist groups holds the second position
among the oldest of the conflicts on the planet, behind the struggles be-
tween Sudan and South Sudan. According the Philippine constitution, the
Mindanao region forms part of the Philippine state, although the Muslim
population inhabiting the greater part of the area has never identified
itself with the Catholic policies of the central government.
3
Small Wars Journal.»Ethnic Conflicts and the Moslem Question in Philippine Poli-
tics.» Priscila P. Tacujan. September 2013.
394
This rise in the defense of the ethnic-religious identity of the Moslem po-
pulation in the Mindanao region intensified at the beginning of the 70’s,
owing fundamentally to four factors4:
• The programmed migration of Catholic population into the region
with the objective of occupying land and producing a change in the
demographic data, thus reducing the Moslem percentage of the
population.
• Lack of identification with the central government’s system of se-
cular politics.
• The lack of social and economic development of the region.
• Fear of the disappearance of their political, religious and cultural
traditions.
The conflict in Mindanao has also produced a high number of displaced
persons. Since the year 2000, nearly three and a half million people have
had to abandon their homes in flight from the violence. For 2013 alo-
ne, this figure was 325,000.5 To this humanitarian tragedy must be ad-
ded the number of displacements caused by natural disasters. Since the
year 2011, Mindanao has suffered the consequences of eight typhoons.
In the floods resulting from Typhoon Sendong in 2011, nearly a million
people, half of them inhabitants of Mindanao, found themselvs obliged to
flee their homes between June and September. In December of that same
year, Tropical Storm Washi displaced 220,000 people in the north of Min-
danao. In December of 2012, Mindanao suffered the harsh consequences
of the passage of a new typhoon, which forced the evacuation of more
than six million people and destroyed 235,000 homes.6 In November of
2013, the area was lashed by yet another typhoon, causing around 5,700
victims, 11 million of the affected and 4 million refugees.
These natural disasters and the conflicts have affected the poorest and
most vulnerable. According to the U.N. Index of Human Development for
the years 2012/2013, of the ten provinces whose indexes of development
are among the lowest in the Philippines, nine are to be found in Minda-
nao7, specifically within the conflict zones.
In recent years there has been a growth of interest in putting an end to the
violence and in achieving stability in this area. Ending the ethnic-religious
conflicts has become a strategic objective, not only for the Philippines,
4
Peter Chalk, «Separatism and Southeast Asia: The Islamic Factor in Southern Thai-
land, Mindanao and Aceh.» Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 24:241—269, 2001.
5
http://www.internal-displacement.org/blog/2014/
can-mindanaos-new-peace-ageement-help-end-displacement.
6
Ibid.
7
http://ph.undp.org/content/philippines/ Consultada on May 14th.
395
but also for the international community and specifically for ASEAN (As-
sociation of Southeast Asian Nations).8
In the coming years, Mindanao may undergo a transformation of its eco-
nomic potential and achieve development in accord with its privileged
geographic position and the wealth of its natural resources. It is growing
at a faster rate than the Philippines themselves, and may become a key
actor within the ASEAN Economic Community which will begin to func-
tion in 2015. Mindanao could become the preferred recipient of foreign
investment and, more importantly, constitute a «hub» for the maritime
transport of the Southeast Asian area. But the only way to do this is to
guarantee peace, stability and the sharing of wealth among all sectors of
the Mindanao population.
As happens with a number of the conflicts of an ethno-religious character

which take place in Southeast Asia, the background, even if briefly, must
be set within the colonial era. Prior to the arrival of the Spanish in 1565,
Islam had taken root in a large part of the Philippine archipelago, having
arrived there in the XIV century along with Arab merchants. Spanish co-
lonizers tried unsuccesfully to convert to Christianity the native Muslim,
whom they called «the others» and «moros» in order to underline the
differences between the two communities. In 1896 the Philippines began
to seek independance from the Spanish. In 1898, the Treaty of Paris was
signed, putting an end to the Spanish-American war and requiring the
transferring of Puerto Rico, Guam and the Philippines to the U.S. From
then until 1946, the Philippines were under American power and the
Muslim problem remained unresolved.
The separatist struggle began in a peaceful way in 1920. In 1946, the
Philippines achieved independance with the annexation of the sultanates
of Mindanao and of Sulu. The Moslem elite at first presented no objec-
tions to supporting the politics of the central government, including the
displacement of Christians into the mainly Moslem region in an attempt
to change the demography. This posture of accomodation resulted, in the
following years, in the rise among the population of a separatist move-
ment in response to the utter lack of defense by the elites regarding the
autonomy of the Moslem zone.
In 1968, the most radical of the Islamic leaders founded the MIM (Moslem
Independance Movement) which proclaimed the State of Bangsamoro.
8
ASEAN is a regional organization created in 1967. Currently it is made up of: Cam-
bodia, Brunei, the Philippines, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore
and Vietnam.
396
Between 1969 and 1972 bloody clashes occurred between Christians and
Moslems in Mindanao, which, together with the Communist insurgency of
the NPA, led President Marcos to proclaim Martial Law.9
The secessionist demands continued under Nur Misauri, who founded the
MNLF (Moro National Liberation Front) in 1972. This was the most active
group in the armed struggle during the decades of the seventies and ei-
ghties. From the time of its foundation until 1975, clashes between this
group and the Philippine Armed Forces were so frequent and violent that
they resulted in a figure of 120,000 deaths10. The group strove for the im-
plantation of a Bangsamoro State to include Mindanao, Sulu and Palawan.
Pressured by the violence that the group was imposing on the region of
Mindanao, the Philippine government signed the Treaty of Tripoli in 1976,
proclaiming a cease fire and establishing an Autonomous Region embra-
cing the Muslim part of Mindanao led by Nur Misauri.
The agreement reached, however, did not put an end to the violence in
the region, which intensified in the year following its signing. The Moslem
population began to show its disagreement with the terms of autonomy,
which produced splits within the armed group. In 1977, several members
of the MNLF founded the MILF (Moslem Islamic Liberation Front) to take
over the struggle to achieve not only the autonomy of the region, but the
proclamation of a State of Bangsamoro.
In 1986, the Aquino government achieved a cease-fire with the MNLF and
the creation of the Autonomous Region in Moslem Mindanao (ARMM in its
English-language acronym). But in spite of this new status of autonomy,
development of the full potential of the Moslem-majority region has not
been achieved. The reasons are varied: dependance on the budget of the
central government, low tax collection by the autonomous entity which
has hampered it in its development of social policies, and, of most con-
cern, the weakness demonstrated by the competent regional and state
authorities respecting the control of arms and drug trade, perhaps due
to their own involvement in these illicit activities.11 The level of extortion
and corruption became evident with the occurrence of the well-known
so-called «Mangindanao Massacre» in 2009. Members of the Ampatuan
clan kidnapped and murdered more than fifty members of the election
committee of their opponent, the governorship of the province, Esmael
Mangundadatu.12
9
http://www.minorityrights.org/. Consulted 24 April 2014.
10
Charles Donnelley: «Terrorism in the Southern Philippines: Contextualising the Abu
Sayyat Group as an Islamist Secessionist Organization». 15th Biennial Conference of
Asian Studies Association of Australia in Camberra, 29June-2 July 2004.
11
M. Coronel. Op. cit.
12
http://www.uplm.ph/?page id=261 (consulted April 24 2014).
397
The MILF was religion-oriented, and would only accept a resolution of

the conflict based on total recognition of an Islamic republic. To the MLNF
it was more a question of a nationalist-political nature.The divergence
between the two organizations was clearly reflected in the agreement
signed with the Philippine government in 1996. In this agreement, known
as the Davao Consensus, the MNLF committed itself to halting the armed
struggle and setting the organization onto a political path. The trade-off
was the creation of the Council for Peace and Development (SPCDP) to be
headed by this group and whose function would consist of coordinating
the development projects for the fourteen southern Philippine provinces
and the creation of an autonomous Muslim region.The 1996 agreement
put an end to the actions of the MNLF, in consideration of the fulfillment of
their aspirations for autonomy for the Bangsamoro region.
Although neutralization of the armed activities of one group had been
achieved, peace was not reached in the Mindanao region; quite the oppo-
site occurred.
New shoots of violence sprouted, instigated by the two main armed
groups discontented with the Davao pact, the MILF and the ASG (Abu Say-
yat Group). In the eyes of the MILF, the autonomous region did not satisfy
the religious goal of the creation of an Islamic state. The ASG objected
that the pact failed to resolve the problem of the presence of Christians
in the region. Since then, the two groups have resorted to violence in the
southeastern Philippines using explosive devices, shoot-outs and kidna-
ppings, not only against local institutions but also against foreign objecti-
ves in a clear show of opposition to Western culture.
Nevertheless, and in spite of this common struggle to establish an Isla-
mic state based on implementation of the Sharia, there are considerable
differences beween the MILF and the ASG regarding the means used for
carrying out their own particular jihad. The MILF approves neither the
strategy nor the methods employed by the ASG.
The ASG is a violent Islamist group based on Sunni and Salafist ideo-
logy. It was founded in1991 by Abdurajak Abubaker Janjalani who na-
med the group in honor of the Afghan resistance leader, Professor Ab-
dul Rasul Sayyaf. A number of States as well as the U.N. have included
the ASG on their lists of terrorist groups. Their range of operations
is based within the area of the Sulu archipelago and the Zamboanga
peninsula, although assaults have been carried out in Manila as well.
They are currently broadening their area of operations to include Ma-
laysia and Indonesia.13
In addition to their goal of the achieivement of an Islamic state, one of
the ASG’s aims is to expell those Christians resettled from Luzon into the
http://stanford.edu/group/mappingmilitants/cgi-bin/.
13
398
Visayas. They stake their claims through violence and terrorist actions,
leaving no path open for negotiation. They are considered by the central
government to be more a criminal gang than an ethnic-religious group
with secessionist pretentions.
In spite of enjoying economic support from Al-Quaeda, lack of finance has
led the ASG to encourage kidnappings, extortion and marijuana cultiva-
tion in order to finance the continuation of the armed struggle. The MILF
continues its combat, but without explicitly rejecting negotiation with the
central government. On the fifth of August of 2008, the two parties sig-
ned the Memorandum of Understanding on Ancestral Domain (MOU-AD)
which foresaw the creation of a Bangsamoro Judicial Entity (BJE).
This could not, however, be implemented because the Supreme Court of
the Philippines considered it unconstitutional. The MOU-AD was harshly
criticized for its lack of consultation with the non-Moslem populace affec-
ted by the agreement. This part of the population was unable to express
its disagreement with the new jurisdictions to be assigned to the region,
converting it into a nearly sovereign State.
In the following years, the MILF and the Philippine government at-
tempted to bring their positions closer, in order to end the conflict in
the Mindanao region. But simultaneous to these negotiations, there
appeared other armed groups of a more radical character, such as the
BIFM (Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Movement).14 This armed move-
ment arose in 2010 as a splinter-group of the MILF. With no defined
strategy, but well-armed,15 the activities of the BIFM have been aimed
at boycotting peace negotiations through attacks on the security for-
ces of the central government and even against individual menbers
of the MILF. Of the clashes which have taken place since its creation,
mention should be made of the occurences of August 2011 in which
the BIFM and the armed group of the MILF known as the BIAF (Bangsa-
moro Islamic Armed Forces) faced off in the area of DatuPiang, resul-
ting in fourteen victims among the combatants and more than 2,400
displacements16. This type of confrontation increased in intensity as
the MILF and the central government approached a compromise in
their negotiating positions. The targets were both military and civi-
lian and even critical infrastructure such as the electricity grid. The
last attempt to sabotage peace conversations took place between Au-
gust and September of 2012, when BIFM militants carried out several
14
This group is also known as the BIFF (Bangsamoro Isalmic Freedom Fighters).
15
https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-bangsamoro-islamic-freedom-figh-
ters-the-newest-obstacles-to-peace-in-the-southern-Philippines.
16
http://ndrrmc.gov.ph/attachments/article/269/NDRRMC%20Update%20Pro-
gress%20Report%20 %204%20re%20Encounter%20in%20Datu%20Piang,%20Minda-
nao%20as%20of%2012%20August% 202011, %2010PM.pdf.
399
attacks in the Maguindanao province in the center of Mindanao. For

weeks clashes with the Philippine army took place, with a balance of
nearly 40,000 persons displaced and dozens of rebels killed.
On the sidelines of this armed struggle, negotiations between the MILF
and the government followed their course. Conversations were renewed
in Kuala Lumpur in 2009. From that time on, the two parties met on six-
teen occasions until finally, in October of 2012, the government of the
Philippines signed an agreement with the MILF, culminating 18 years of
intermittent negotiations.
The agreement, entitled «Framework Agreement on Bangsamoro»
(FAB)17, constituted the first part of the final «Comprehensive Agreement
on Bangsamoro»18. This important step may be seen as a serious com-
mitment to ending armed violence in the Mindanao region, a purpose
unachieved by the agreements previously signed in 1996 and 2008.
Source: Jane´s Intelligence Review. Feb. 2014.
It establishes the creation of the political structure and the sharing of

powers of a new region called Bangsamoro which will replace the cu-
rrent Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao. The specific points of the
agreement are reflected in four appendices, the last of which was sig-
ned early in 2014. The first three deal with the autonomous character of
the region. The last establishes the power structure and the institutions
which will govern Bangsamoro.
In the opinion of the MLFN, the new accord represents a failure to comply
with what had been agreed on in 1996 with the creation of the ARMM.
Ever since October 2012 they have tried to boycott the continuation of
the negotiations between the government and the MILF. In August 2013,
a fraction of the MNLF joined its founder, Masuri, in the unilateral procla-
mation of the Federal Union of States of the Republic of Bangsamoro, a
http://www.oppap.gov.ph./resources/framework-agreement-bangsamoro.
17
To read the text: http://www.gov.ph/downloads/2014/03mar/201140327-Compre-

18
hensive-agreement-on-the-Bangsamoro.pdf.
400
proposition which, as could hardly be otherwise, is recognized by neither

the Philippine government nor by adjacent countries such as Malaysia. In
its attempt to implant this Republic, the MNLF has been involved in cons-
tant confrontations with the central government. One of the most serious
occurrences was that of the assault on the city of Zamboanga in Septem-
ber of 2013, which ended with a total of 200 deaths, tens of thousands of
refugees and some 10,000 homes destroyed.19
Current situation
The «Comprehensive Agreement on Bangsamoro» may be considered a

success, and has been recognized as such by the principal world lea-
ders who hastened to send congratulations to President Aquino on having
been able to reach a historic agreement.20/21 Nonetheless, the fact that the
agreement was signed only by the MILF makes it foreseeable that other
groups may carry out acts of violence to demonstrate their discontent at
having been left out of the negotiations. After the signing of the fourth am-
mendment, a wave of violence was initiated in some of the central areas
of Mindanao. The confrontations between the Philippine army, the BIFM,
and the MNLF splinter group led by Nur Masuri, have been the most vio-
lent since 2008, causing the displacement of more than 10,000 people.22
The interest in the current situation of the conflict centers on how to carry
out the process of transition for the creation of «Bangsamoro», and the
composition of the Basic Law which is to govern the region. This process
of transition is being carried out by the Commission for the Transition
which is formed by seven representatives from the central government
and eight from the MILF, and on which are represented the various sec-
tors and groups of Bangsamoro. This Commission will take charge of
drawing up the Basic Law which will govern the region and which must
be approved by the government and subsequently ratified by its inhabi-
tants. The process will culminate with the election of the new government
of Bangsamoro in 2016 via an electoral procedure.
The peace agreement is made up of four parts.The first three establi-
sh the autonomous, not independant, character of the Muslim areas of
Mindanao, grouped under the term «Bangsamoro». The fourth appendix
establishes the way in which the government and the MILF willl work
together to re-establish order in the region. In the sharing of powers, the
19
http://www.unocha.org/top-stories/all-stories/
philippines-escaping-conflict-zamboanga.
20
h t t p : / / w w w. p h i l s t a r. c o m / n a t i o n / 2 0 1 4 / 0 4 / 2 6 / 1 3 1 6 3 4 8 /
eu-officials-briefed-new-bangsamoro-political-entity.
21
http://www..state.gov./secretary/remarks/2014/01/220622.htm.
22
IHS Jane’s. Ticking-clock Prospects for lasting peace in southern Philippines. Date
posted: 27- Feb-2014.
401
central government will continue to hold control of Defense, the Economy,

Foreign Affairs, Commerce, and Immigration, among others.23
The whole process is intended to be carried out without modifying the
1987 Philippine Constitution, on the grounds of the text of Article X which
foresees the possiblity of the creation of autonomous regions.
The new government of Bangsamoro will be structured around a number of
Ministries, with transferred competences such as Justice; others attached
to the central government such as Defense; and still others being shared,
as will be those relating to tax policies and the exploitation of resources.
The geographic extension of Bangsamoro will be determined by a plebiscite,
once Congress has approved the Basic Law.24 The plebiscite will be carried
out in the provinces currently making up the Autonomous Region of Moslem
Mindanao and Marawi, the cities of Cotabato and Isabela, the six municipali-
ties in Lanao which back in 2001 voted to belong to the ARMM, and the muni-
cipalities of the north of the province of Cotabato. The plebiscite will also take
place in those adjacent territories which request participation25.
With regard to the disarming of armed groups, the MILF and the Central
Government have agreed that this will be carried out gradually. Respon-
sibility for enforcing the Basic Law will be transferred to the Police, which
will be of a civilian nature, and will be responsible to both the central
government and the Bangsamoro government.
International Support for Resolution of the Conflict
Since 1997, the date of the start of peace negotiations between the MILF
and the central government, the presence of international actors has
been on the rise. In 2001, the parties agreed to negotiate outside the
country with the support of Malaysia. In 2004, an international group (an
IMT, or International Monitoring Team) was invited in as observers of the
cease-fire. In 2009, the mission of this group was broadened to include
civilian protection and rehabilitation tasks. Malaysia acted as coordinator
and also lent support in the field of security together with Brunei, Norway,
and Libya. Japan offered economic support and the European Union took
on humanitarian aid and rehabilitation. Civilian protection tasks were in
the hands of four civilian organizations: the MPC (Mindanao People’s Cau-
cus), MinHRAC (Mindanao Human Rights Action Center), MOGOP (Muslim
23
http://www.gov.ph./downloads/2013/12dec/20131208-Annex-on-Power-Sharing.pdf.
24
On Sept. 10 2014, the bill for the Basic Law was sent to Congress for its approval.
25
http://www.gov.ph./downloads/2012/10oct/20121012-Framework-Agree-
ment-on-the-Bangsamoro.pdf.
402
Organization of Government Officials and Professionals) and the NPF

(Non-Violent Peace Force).26
Apart from the IMT, in 2009 the Philippine government and the MILF es-
tablished the International Contact Group (ICG), with the participation of
four States (the United Kingdom, Japan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia) and
four NGO’s (Conciliation Resources, Muhammadiya, The Asia Foundation
(TAF) and the Center for Humanitarian Dialogue (HD)).27 The ICG has pla-
yed an outstanding role in the achievement of the peace accord between
the government and the MILF. Their principal mediating functions have
been: to provide flexibility of negotiation for the achievement of long-term
commitments; involvement of the civil society of the regions affected by
the conflict; introduction of the gender perspective, and the carrying out
of the important task of coordination among all the actors involved throu-
ghout the resolution of the conflict.28
The ICG is a private negotiating group and may represent a new way of
ending longstanding conflicts such as those present in Southeast Asia. It
is a heterogeneous group in which participating countries have no appa-
rent interests related to the conflict. However, behind this negotiating
group lie the underlying interests of the two great powers, China and the
U.S., which each hope to achieve hegemony in the region of Southeast
Asia.29 The major powers have an obvious geostrategic interest in putting
an end to the conflict in Mindanao. The G8 has stated that, in spite of the
fact that the peace accord has been signed, it will continue offering its
support for the consolidation of peace.30
U.S. Interests
Following the 2001 attacks, the United States began a worldwide struggle
against AlQaeda and against terrorist groups linked to that organization.
Among these groups were Abu Sayyaf (ASG) and Jemaah Islamiyah whose
base was located in Indonesia. In 2002, the «Joint Special Operations Task
Force-Philippines» (JSOTF-P) was established as part of the «Enducing
Freedom 2002» mission.The objective of this operation is to assist the Phi-
lippine Armed Forces in their struggle against terrorism and insurgency.
This collaboration is centered on four objectives: elimination of the sanc-
26
http://www.mindanews.com./peace-process/2010/10/18/everythings-set-but-
the-date-of-the-talks/. Consulted April 24 2014.
27
http://www..c-r.org/sites/c-r.org/files/PracticePaper_Mindanao/CG_Conciliation-
Resources_0.pdf
28
ibid.
29
I. Mastura. «Geopolitical Games and Malaysian Mediation in the Philippines.» Jindal
Journal of International Affairs Vol. 1. (2011).
30
h t t p : / / w w w. p h i l s t a r. c o m / n a t i o n / 2 0 1 4 / 0 4 / 0 2 / 1 3 0 7 9 8 4 /
g8-members-vow-continued-support-mindanao-peace-process.
403
tuaries of insurgent terrorists, hampering their mobility, impeding access

to resources and preventing a rise in the number of affiliates among the
population.31
According to the Philippine Constitution, foreign combat forces may not
operate within the country. In order to make this requirement compatible
with the JSOTF-P operation, specific rules of engagement were designed
to establish the subordinate nature of U.S. troops with respect to the Phi-
lippine Armed Forces, permitting the use of force only in self-defense or
when under attack.
The balance of the JSOTF-P is positive. The principal ASG leaders32 have
died or been captured. The latest of these was Khair Mindos, captured in
June of 2014, related to Al-Qaida and Jemaah Islamiya and featured on the
U.S. most-wanted list with a reward of $500,000 offered for his capture.33
The number of ASG militants has dropped. Before the operation there
were over a thousand, and now the number is below a few hundred. On
the other hand, the operation has cost the lives of 17 U.S. military victims,
ten of whom died in the helicopter accident which took place in 2002.34
In addition to its military component for the fight against terrorism, the
JSOTF-P mission also focuses on humanitarian and development aid to
the Mindanao region. The most outstanding of these activities have been
aid to the population of the province of Leyte after the passage of Typhoon
Yolanda, medical aid, and construction of schools and infrastructure. This
non-military component has permitted legitimization of the presence of
the U.S. armed forces in the region and the strengthening of the image
of the central government, while creating a positive image of U.S. troops.
With the achievement of the peace accord between the MILF and the go-
vernment, the finalization of the JSOTF-P appears closer. The operation
has cost about 50 million dollars annually and any savings comes as a
relief to the U.S. economy.
Probably, the JSOTF-P will give way to an advisory operation, with re-
duced personnel in case isolated assaults by the ASG continue to occur.
However, the finalization of this mission by no means represents a chan-
ge in the mutual interests of the two countries; quite the opposite. In April
of 2014, Presidents Obama and Aquino signed a cooperation agreement
31
http://www.globalsecutiry.org/military/agency/dod/jsotf-p.htm. Consulted April 25 2014.
32
The latest of them has been Khair Mundos, captured in June of 2014 and also rela-
ted to AlQaeda and Jemaah Islamiyah.He was included on the Most Wanted list by the
U.S. which offered a $500,000 reward for his capture.
33
h t t p : / / w w w. i b t i m e s . c o m / a b u - s a y y a f - c o m m a n d e r - k h a i r - m u n -
dos-who-is-most-wanted-list-captured-philippines-1598012.
34
The accident took place during a troop and supplies transport mission between the
city of Zamboango and the Isle of Basilan.
404
in the field of defense known as the EDCA (Enhanced Defense Coopera-

tion Agreement)35 which permits an increase in U.S. military presence in
the Asia Pacific zone to counter the rise in the power of China which is
taking place in the region.
He Philippines and China are involved in a territorial dispute over the Spratly
Islands, located in the South China Sea,36 where the situation is of continued
tension. The area concerned is rich in fishing and energy resources and thus
is off great interest to bordering countries. In addition, the U.S. aims to rein-
force its presence in the Sulu archipelago and in Malaysia in support of its
geostrategic interests in becoming a regional power. U.S. intentions include:
guaranteeing maritime traffic in the area, exploring the future exploitation of
natural resources and establishing anti-missile-system bases.37
The International Community and Development Aid
As happens in other Asiatic countries, development aid from the interna-

tional community plays an important role in alleviating the consequences
of conflicts taking place at sub-national level in Southeast Asia. Countries
like Myanmar, the Philippines, Indonesia or Thailand hold very longstan-
ding conflicts and have been the recipients of major funding. Between
2001 and 2010, the international community contributed 5.8 billion do-
llars to internal conflicts in these countries. Since 2007, this aid has stood
at around 400 million dollars a year.38 Nonetheless, it is difficult to esta-
blish any relation with the end of the conflict. It might be thought that the
real interest of the donors may be found in the maintainance of commer-
cial relations or cooperation in the materials of terrorism with the central
governments over and above the will to end these longstanding conflicts.
The interests of ASEAN
Traditionally, a principle of non-intereference in internal conflicts has held

within ASEAN, as a mark of respect for the sovereignty of the member na-
tions. ASEAN has always advocated the peaceful resolution of conflicts in
order to guarantee the peace and stability needful for the achievement of its
economic objectives. As the date approaches for the definitive establishment
of the ASEAN Economic Community, set for 2015, resolution of the longstan-
ding internal conflicts present in Southeast Asia seems to be speeding up.
35
http://www.gov.ph/2014/04/29/document-enhanced-defense-cooperation-ageement
36
For the Philippines, «Western Philippine Sea.»
37
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/commentary/the-china-post/special-to-the-china-
post-2013/07/21/384313/Philippine-bases.htm.
38
http://www.asiafoundation.org/in-asia/2014/08/06/subnational-con-
flict-the-dark-underbelly-of-a-rising-asia/. Consulted Sept.3 2014.
405
Achievement of the objective of a single market, with a base of production

and a free movement of goods within the ASEAN countries, is only possible if
a guarantee of security and stability within the zone is on offer.
It is the aim of the ASEAN Common Market to become one of the world’s prin-
cipal economic regions. In order to do this, it must stimulate its internal mar-
ket, which currently stands at some 25%, far below, for example, the Euro-
pean Union’s 60% in 1992.39 And it is in this respect that Mindanao presents
great opportunities for facilitating trade among the islands and for becoming
a motor for the growth of the Philippines and consequently for ASEAN. Min-
danao shows the highest growth potential in the Philippines. Total exports
grew 16.7% reaching a value of 3.588 billions US Dollars40, while exports in
the whole of the country showed growth on the order of 7.6 %.41
Mindanao’s privileged position gives it a very relevant protagonism within
ASEAN. Among plans foreseen as propelling economic development is
the modernization of ports and the opening of new maritime routes, such
as that between Davao-General Santos (Philippines) and Tahuma-Bitung
(Indonesia),42 which came into use early in 2014.
Source: http://www.minda.gov.ph/.
39
http://www.iiss.org/en/events/events/archive/2014-Of13/february-e91c/fuller-
ton-lecture-purisima-3d1d. Consulted Sept. 3 2014.
40
Mindanao’s ten principal markets are: the U.S., Japan, China, Holland, South Korea,
Singapore, Switzerland, U.K., Germany and Malaysia.
41
http://www.mindanews.com/business/2013/08/09/
is-mindanao-ready-for-the-asean-economic-community-in-2015/.
42
http://www.news.pia.gov.ph/index.php?article=1701398844287.
406
This connection of Mindanao with Indonesia forms part of the Plan desig-
ned by the Development Authority of Mindanao in order to establish three
corridors of economic growth: the city of Zamboanga will serve as the en-
trance port to the EAGA (East Asian Growth Area) and act as a commercial
hub. Cagayan de Oro will become a center for those businesses related
to the agricultural sector and General Santos will be transformed into a
logistics hub.43. Another of the economic possibilities to open up if peace
and stability are finally achieved in Mindanao is the supplying of Liquid
Natural Gas (LNG) from Brunei. The report produced by the World Bank
identifies several possible locations. Among these are: Davao, General
Santos, Iligan, Cagayan de Oro and the Phividec industrial complex in the
eastern part of Misamis.44
A perspective on the conflict
The initial design and good intentions of the Framework Agreement on

Bangsamoro do not seem to be materializing quickly. Discrepancies be-
tween the central Philippine government and the MILF as to the final wor-
ding of the Basic Law for Bangsamoro have generated multiple debates
and brought about more changes in the text than had been expected,
especially regarding questions of territory, resources and government
structure. The MILF has accused the government of failing to comply with
the agreement with respect to the requisites for the autonomy of the re-
gion. For the moment, the Law has been sent to Congress for its approval.
Any stumbling block along the way may cause a resurgence of pockets of
violence and shatter hopes for investment in such sectors as agriculture
and mining, which had arisen based on the signing of a peace accord.
Since the signing of the accord, there has been ever-increasing growth
of investment in the region. In 2013, investment rose to a total of 34.2
million dollars as against 13 million dollars in 2012. This growth seems
to be continuing in 2014 given that in the first two quarters, investment
reached a value of 57 million dollars, the highest in history.45
Aquino had promised that the autonomy of Bangsamoro would become
effective in 2015. But ammending the Constitution formed no part of her
plan, and that step, according to experts, is the only way to authorize the
degree of autonomy demanded by the MILF. Ammending the Constitution,
or failing to do so, represents a key step in making Bangsamoro a reality
as the MILF conceives it.
43
http://www.sunstar.com.ph/davao/business/2014/07/19/mindanao-eyed-transs-
hipment-hub-354714. Consulted 23 August 2014.
44
To consult the report: ttps://www.doe.gov.ph/microsites/ngmd%20website/Final_
Report_Mindanao_Market_Assessment.pdf.
45
http://news.pia.gov.ph/index.php?article=1611403066501.
407
Supposing that everything agreed to between this group and the central
government is strictly complied with and the Basic Law passes with the
separatist requirements of the Muslim-majority region, a major step will
have been taken towards the achievement of stability in the area, but it
will not be possible to declare it a success until armed violence ceases
and equality among the population and regional development are promo-
ted. Following the creation of Bangsamoro, if this does in fact take place,
further problems may arise endangering the stability of the region.
The concept of agreement is based on cultural or ethnic aspects. The
MILF has negotiated as a group representing the whole of the Moslem
population. But as mentioned at the beginning of this chapter, the Mos-
lem population of Mindanao is made up of 13 ethnic groups. So far, the-
se differences may have been downplayed due to the struggle against a
common enemy, the central government. Once autonomy has been achie-
ved, this ethnic diversity may constitute a new source of violence if the
rights of ethnic groups are not sufficiently protected or if there arises any
kind of inequality in the exploitation of resources or in tax obligations.The
struggle for autonomy could give way to a quarrel between clans within
the region itself. In order to avoid this situation, the local governments
should be represented by the greatest possible number of ethnic groups,
in accord with the democratic principles established. The consolidation
of Bangsamoro should put an end to extortion, to corruption, and to the
inequity which has characterized the administrations of the Mindanao au-
thorities. In the barangays,46 the population is closely linked to the family
and the clan. Security depends on the local elites. Some of these elites
have their own armies and at times, instead of protecting the population,
they create greater violence as a result of a power struggle among them-
selves and over the exploitation of Mindanao’s natural resources. Support
for the MILF was obtained as a result of the dissatisfation of the people
with the weakness of the institutions which governed the RAMM. It is es-
sential not to commit the same error.
Regarding the MILF, there is a major question which will mark the suc-
cess or failure of the peace accord. The MILF will have to undergo a tran-
formation in order to become a political party in the elections, planned for
2016. Taking into account the corruption which has always characterized
electoral processes in Mindanao, the MILF should be able to count on the
support of the government and of international organizations if it wishes
to run for election peacefully.This problem makes the disarming of this
armed group, established in the peace accord, more difficult. As long as
other groups and clans continue to be armed, the MILF may find the legi-
timacy to refuse to lay down its arms.
The barangay is the smallest unit of local government in the Philippines. It may be
46
compared to a neighborhood where several dozen families live.
408
Other insurgent groups such as the Maoist NPA (New People’s Army),
which apparently do not share the same ideology as the Islamic insur-
gency, could join the struggle to attempt to boycott the peace process and
weaken the government.
On the other hand, the Bangsamoro authorities should guarantee the
rights of the non-Moslem population, among whom are to be found
the Christian community and indigenous groups. According to the Fra-
mework Agreement, the Bangsamoro government will be secular47 and
will guarantee the recognition of such basic rights as religious freedom,
the participation of women in the political process, and equality of oppor-
tunity and non-discrimination in any economic or public-service activity
with regard to gender, handicap, social class or ethnic origin.As President
Aquino stated in a plenary session of ASEAN which took place last May:
«Peace anywhere in the world redounds to the benefit of everyone. As peace
in Bangsamoro sets the bases of stability, integration and progress in Minda-
nao, there will be a rise in opportunities for the people of Mindanao, for the
entire Philippines, and for the partners and friends who wish to contribute
to this development.»48
Bangsamoro will have a secular nature and in no case, according to the
agreement, will be ruled by the Sharia. This situation may provoke a vio-
lent reaction from the ASG and the BIFM who have already shown their
support for the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, to the point of sending a
hundred militants to Iraq. There is concern that these insurgents may be
trained to return to Mindanao and comply with orders to extend the Isla-
mic State throughout Southeast Asia.49
Without failing to recognize the successful nature of the accord achieved,
there remains a long road to travel, not exempt from outbreaks of violen-
ce. Perhaps the best guarantee for Mindanao’s stability is the promotion
of its economic development and the participation of the local population
in this growth. Its geostrategic position makes Mindanao a protagonist in
maritime trade, especially with the upcoming initiation of the Economic
Community of ASEAN in 2015. Southeast Asia cannot miss the opportu-
nity for growth because of such longstanding conflicts as those taking
place in Myanmar or the Philippines. Perhaps now there is a real interest
in their resolution and a major effort by the whole of the international
community that this takes place.
47
http://www.opapp.gov.ph/resources/framework-agreement-bangsamoro.
48
http://president.gov.ph./news/aquino-hopes-bangsamoro-agreement-wi-
ll-help-promote-peace-asean-region/.
49
http://www.mb.com.ph/mindanao-newsbits-for-august-26-2014/ (consulted 1
September).
409
* CIA The world FACTBOOK

** http://hdr.undp.org
*** http://datos.bancomundial.org/pais/filipinas
410
Chronology
Bibliography
Periodicals
G. Poling. «The Philippines´South China Sea Memorial: Sailing into the
Wind». Southeast Asia from Scott Circle. Vol V, April 2014. Center for
Strategic & International Studies.
411
Mastura. «Geopolitical Games and Malaysan Mediation in the Philippines».

Jindal Journal of Internacional Affairs Vol 1. (2011).
Priscila. P. Tacujan.«Ethnics Conflicts and the Muslim Question in Philippine
Politics». Small wars Journal, Septiembre 2013.
Peter Chalk. «Separatism and Southeast Asia: The Islamic Factor in South-
ern Thailand, Mindanao, and Aceh». Studies in Conflict&Terrorism,
24:241–269, 2001.
Lectures
Charles Donnelly.»Terrorism in the Southern Philippines: Contextualising
the Abu Sayyaf Group as an Islamist Seccesionist organization». 15th
Biennial Conference of Asian Studies Association of Australia in Cam-
berra. 29 June-2 July, 2004.
Reports
IHS Jane´s. Ticking Clock-Prospects for lasting peace in southern Philip-
pines. Date Posted: 27-Feb-2014.
The Midanao Conflict in the Philippines: Roots, Costs and Potential Peace
Divided. The World Bank. Febrero 2005.
Mindanao 2020. Peace and Development Framework Plan 2011-2030. Mind-
anao Development Authority, 2011.
The contested corners of Asia. The Case of Mindanao, Philippines. The Asia
Foundation.
Websites consulted:
http://www.internal-displacement.org.
http://www.ph.undp.org.
http://www.minorityrights.org.
http://www.uplm.ph.
http://www.stanford.edu.
https://www.ctc.usma.edu.
http://ndrrmc.gov.ph.
http://www.opapp.gov.ph.
http://www.unocha.org.
http://www.philstar.com.
http://www.state.gov.
http://www.gov.ph.
http://www.mindanews.com.
http://www.c-r.org.
http://www.globalsecurity.org.
http://www.chinapost.com.tw
http://asiafoundation.org.
412
http://www.iiss.org.
http://www.sunstar.com.ph.
http://news.pia.gov.ph.
http://president.gov.ph.
https://www.cia.gov.
http://hdr.undp.org.
http://datos.bancomundial.org/pais/filipinas. (http://data.worldbank.
org/country/philippines)
413
The working group
Coordinador: D. Miguel Ángel Ballesteros Martín

Brigadier General.
Director. Spanish Institute of Strategic Studies (IEEE).
Member and D. Ignacio J. García Sánchez

secretry Captain, Spanish Navy.
Deputy Director. IEEE.
Members D. Federico Aznar Fernández Montesinos

Lieutenant Commander.
Senior Analyst. IEEE.
D. Francisco J. Ruiz González
Lieutenant Commander
Professor. Strategy Department at the Superior Center
for the Spanish Armed Forces. (ESFAS).
D. Santos Castro Fernández
Former Advisor. IEEE.
415
D. Mario Laborie Iglesias
Colonel. Spanish Army.
Head of Studies. Spanish Army War College.
D. Jorge Bolaños Martínez
Senior Analyst. IEEE..
D. Jesús Díez Alcalde
Teniente coronel del ET.
Analista principal del IEEE.
Dña. Blanca Palacián de Inza
D. Jordi Marsal Muntalà
Civil Advisor to the Director of the Superior Center for
National Defense Studies (CESEDEN)
D. Emilio Sánchez de Rojas Díaz
Colonel. Spanish Army.
Professor. Superior Center for Defense Studies (EALEDE).
D. Miguel Ángel Serrano Monteavaro
Former Senior Analyst. IEEE.
Dña. María José Izquierdo Alberca
Dña. María del Mar Hidalgo García
416
SECRETARÍA
GENERAL
TÉCNICA
SUBDIRECCIÓN GENERAL
DE PUBLICACIONES
Y PATRIMONIO CULTURAL

Geopolitical Panorama2014

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Geopolitical Panorama2014

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Geopolitical Panorama2014

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Geopolitical overview of Spanish

SPANISH MINISTRY OF DEFENCE

© Author and Publisher, 2014

The history of Ukraine, a country located in Eastern Europe and which

Ukraine, Donetsk, Lugansk, proRussians, Novarussia, Putin, Crimea,

Ukraine is a young State, almost new, since the periods of independence

Finally, and of great historic relevance, it should be emphasized that major

Map of Novarussia in 1897.2

With regard to its demographic data, Ukraine today has a population

To the centrifugal tendencies of the Russian-speaking populations wi-

Another cause of instability in Ukraine is the geopolitical-military position

botages-Ruthenian-congress-in-40705.html (consulted 25-05-2014).

Background to the conflict

In November of 2014, the Ukrainian government intended to sign an

ticipation by 89.51%.10 On March 1st, the provisional Prime Minister of the

Current situation of the conflict

On May 25th, Presidential elections took place in Ukraine which, with a

Ukrainian troops reinforced their offensive to recover the rebel territory.

EFE News Agency Report, 8th July 2014, Kiev.

Interview with Igor Strelkov published on http://novorussia.su/node/2533. June 9,

2014 (consulted September 2nd, 2014).

As seen above, some important insurgent leaders are Russian. Outstan-

solution to the Ukrainian crisis during the flight to Mongolia.

Economic aspects of the conflict

At the time the revolt in Maidan began, Ukraine was a country on

The energy factor as key element

The role of external actors

blic of Donetsk, and 7.1% NO to independence, with a 74.87% turnout.

The United States

The European Union

with a termination deadline of 30th November of 2014. For their part,

The Atlantic Alliance

The Alliance has at no time considered military support to Ukraine,

response plan with a set of integrated measures. Among these, outstan-

Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe

This is the only international organization accepted by Russia as an in-

Conclusions and perspectives

The Ukraine crisis is conditioning the place Russia wishes to occupy in

29th 2014. http://www.lavanguardia.com/internacional/20140829/54414108591/the-

vinced that it is preferable to seek a negotiated agreement than a

GARCIA-MARGALLO, Jose Manuel. Remarks before the Commission on Foreign

Affairs of the Congress of Deputies, July 31, 2014.

SOURCE: CIA The World FACTBOOK

Al Qaeda, a Salafist, jihadist organization, has experienced profound

Al-Qaeda, Salafism, jihadism, terrorism, insurgency.

the fact that references can have a theological nature, or be presented as

Background to the conflict

Meijer, Roel (Coord). Globalsalafism. Hurst and Company, London, 2009.

in 1984, during his stay in Afghanistan, published his work «Abraham’s

Doctrine is a key element in any terrorist organization, because it provi-

into which AlQaeda conveniently settles. Furthermore, it usually happens

nally weak, and formalist in their emphasis on practice at the expense of

BAR. M, Samuel. «Sunnis and Shiites-Between Rapprochement and Conflict».

fundamental Salafist credo, established and handed down, regarding the

Current situation of the conflict

Global Approach to Local Terrorism. Al Qaeda as an Organization

An analysis of Al Qaeda´s activity would be impossible without unders-

After 9/11, Al Qaeda has experienced a noticeable reduction in its com-

Local Approach to Global Terrorism. The Franchise System and its

In this field, Al Qaeda’s principal accomplishment would have been the