Macroeconomics 102
Macroeconomics 102
Macroeconomics 102
(ECON- 102)
Keynesian Theory)
Business Cycle
Exchange Rate
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at market price and factor cost, Real & Nominal, Deflator, etc;
Measurement and limitation of National Income; Circular flows of Income
in two, three and four sector economy, Review Questions, Internal
Assessment.
3.Determination of Income and Employment (Classical and 9 3
Keynesian Theory):
Classical Theory of Employment, Say’s Law of Market; Keynesian theory
of employment- Aggregate demand & Aggregate Supply; Inflation &
Deflation- Causes and Remedies; wages and unemployment (Phillips
Curve); determination of National Income- Keynesian two, three and four
sector model, Review Questions, Internal Assessment.
First Exam 20 marks
4. Consumption and Saving: 4 1
The principle of Effective Demand; Consumption Function- Average and
Marginal Propensity to consume and save, Theories of consumption-
Keynesian Absolute/Psychological law, Post- Keynesian Consumption
Theories- Absolute & Relative Income Hypothesis, Permanent Income
Hypothesis, Life Cycle Hypothesis, Review Questions, Internal
Assessment.
5. IS- LM Model: 3 1
Concepts, features and determination. Review Questions, Internal
Assessment.
6. Theories of Investment, Multiplier Accelerator & Business 4 1
Cycle:
Concepts, Types of investment, Determination of level of investment,
Marginal Efficiency of Capital (MEC), Concepts and Working of
Multiplier & Accelerator, Concepts and features of Business/Economic
Cycle, Review Questions, Internal Assessment.
7. National Budget: 3 1
Concept and types of budget, Government deficit and debt, Fiscal policy,
Review Questions, Internal Assessment.
Second Exam 20 marks
8. Monetary System and Monetary Policy: 4 1
Money and its types and functions; Meaning and Functions of Central
Bank and Commercial Banks; Monetary policy of Central Bank, Review
Questions, Internal Assessment.
9. International Trade, Finance, Balance of Payment and 5 2
Exchange Rate:
Theories of International Trade; International Financing, Meaning and
components of Balance of Payments; Meaning, types and determination of
Exchange Rate, Review Questions, Internal Assessment.
10. Economic Growth & Development: 4 1
Meaning, determinants and differences between Economic growth and
development, Theories of Economic growth and development, Review
Questions, Internal Assessment.
Final Exam 40 marks
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Distribution of Marks:
Class Notes & Practice Workbook Prepared by the Instructor (Dr. Md. Izhar Alam & Dr
Mohammad Imran);
Macroeconomics, 7th Edition by N. Gregory Mankiw; Worth Publishers; New York,
USA;
Advanced Macroeconomics, 4th Edition by David Romer; McGraw- Hill.
Note:
Students are advised to visit the Instructor’s website and look at announcements and
download the study materials and be always updated.
The above mentioned books (of softcopy) are more than 2 MB space and that’s why these
books cannot be uploaded at the website. Therefore, students are advised to take these
books in their USB flash memory from their Instructions.
*****
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1. Introduction to Macroeconomics
Points to be remembered:
Economy: A system of providing living to people.
Microeconomics: Study of the behavior of individual, small, isolated and disaggregated units.
Macroeconomics: Study of groups and broad aggregates of the economy.
Firm: An individual producing unit.
Industry: A group of firms producing identical or closely related goods.
The term microeconomics and macroeconomics were first given by Ragner Frisch in 1933.
Prof. J.M. Keynes is known as father of modern macroeconomics.
Macroeconomics became popular after great depression of 1929- 33.
Prof. J.M. Keynes wrote the book General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money in
1936.
Meaning of Macroeconomics:
The term macro has been derived from Greek word ‘makros’ which means large. It is the study
of aggregates or groups or the entire economy such as gross domestic product, total employment,
aggregate demand, aggregate supply, total savings, general price level, etc.
Scope of Macroeconomics:
Macroeconomics has a wider scope than microeconomics. The study of macroeconomics extends
to the following areas:
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Goals and Importance of Macroeconomics:
To Achieve Higher Level of Gross Domestic Product;
To Achieve Higher Level of Employment;
Stability of Prices;
Formulation of Economic Policies; and
Achievement of Economic Development.
Tools of Macroeconomics:
Fiscal Policy: relates to the management of government revenue, expenditure and debt to
achieve favorable effects and avoid unfavorable effects on income, output and employment.
Monetary Policy: relates to the management of money supply and credit to step up business
activities, promote economic growth, stabilize the price level, achievement of full employment
and equilibrium in balance of payments.
Income Policy: through this policy direct control is exercised over prices and wages.
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Interdependence of Microeconomics and Macroeconomics:
The difference between the microeconomics and macroeconomics is very vivid but these two
branches cannot be taken as totally independent of each other. The changes in one influences the
other. For example, increased savings by individual households shall definitely cause a fall in
consumption in the economy. Accordingly, aggregate demand may fall, causing a cut in the level
of output.
Similarly a situation of persistent fall in general price level will result in falling income of
individual households through a chain of falling investment and employment due to fall in
profits.
So, Microeconomics and macroeconomics are interdependence.
Monetarism:
There are two differences (issues) between the monetarists and Keynesians. First issue or
difference relates to the relationship between money supply and inflation. The second relates to
the role of government in the economy.
Monetarists believe that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. According
to them, inflation is caused by rapid expansion of money supply in the economy and suggest a
constant growth rate of money supply to control inflation.
As Keynesians emphasize that active role should be played by the government to control
business cycles and achieve economic stability. Like classical economists, monetarists also
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believe that free- market economy is inherently stable and if the economy departs from the state
of full- employment, full- employment equilibrium is restored through automatic adjustments in
it.
The failure of Keynesians to deal with stagflation (high inflation with high rate of
unemployment) led supply- side economics. Supply- side economists pointed out that it was
supply- shocks, delivered among others by reduction in oil supplies and increase in oil prices that
caused the problem of stagflation. As a result of contraction in supply due to the adverse supply
shocks, given the aggregate demand curve, price level and inflation rate could rise on the one
hand and aggregate output could fall giving rise to more unemployment on the other.
Supply- side economists suggest that for the expansion in aggregate supply and thereby increase
in employment opportunities, incentives to work, save and invest more were required to be
promoted.
New classical macroeconomics also opposed to Keynesian macroeconomic theory and policy
which focused on aggregate demand for goods and services. According to the new classical
macroeconomic theory, consumers, workers and producers behave rationally to promote their
interests and welfare. On the basis of their rational expectations, based on all the available
information, they make quick adjustments in their behaviour. Therefore, according to the new
classical macroeconomists or the profounder of rational expectation theory, involuntary
unemployment cannot prevail.
A significant difference between the Keynesian theory and rational expectation theory may be
noted here. In the Keynesian theory deficit in government budget leads to increase in aggregate
demand and will therefore promote private investment. On the other hand, according to rational
expectations theory, budget deficit will cause rate of interest to rise which will discourage private
investment.
Like Friedman and other monetarists, supporters of rational expectations theory are opposed to
the active role by the government.
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Questions for Review
Multiple Choice Questions with Answer:
1. Who is considered as father of modern macroeconomics?
2. Who wrote the book “General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money”?
4. The book “General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money” was published in----------
a. 1836 b. 1936
c. 1963 d. None of these
a. Greek word ‘makros’ which means large b. English word ‘makros’ which means large
c. Greek word ‘makros’ which means small d. French word ‘makros’ which means large
a. Theory of National Income & Employment b. Theory of Money Supply & Price Level
c. Theory of International Trade & Eco growth d. All of the above.
8. Which of the following is/are the goals of macroeconomics-----------
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9. What are the tools of macroeconomics?
10. The study of groups and broad aggregates of the economy is known as-----------
a. Microeconomics b. Macroeconomics
c. International Economics d. None of the above.
Ans:
Ques 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Ans. b b c b a a d d d b
Write T for True and F for False against each of the following statements:
1. The term microeconomics and macroeconomics were first given by Ragner Frisch in 1933.
2. Prof. J.M. Keynes is known as father of modern macroeconomics.
3. Macroeconomics became popular after great depression of 1929- 33.
4. Prof. J. N. Keynes wrote the book General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money in
1936.
5. Price is the main determinant of macroeconomics.
6. Income is the main determinant of microeconomics.
7. Partial equilibrium analysis is used in macroeconomics.
8. General equilibrium analysis is applied in microeconomics.
9. Milton Friedman is monetarist.
10. Classical economists and monetarists emphasize that active role should be played by the
government to control business cycles and achieve economic stability.
11. Keynesians believe in free- market economy.
12. Friedman and other monetarists as well as supporters of rational expectations theory are
opposed to the active role by the government.
13. Microeconomics and macroeconomics are independent to each other.
Ans:
Ques 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Ans. T T T F F F F F T F F T F
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Matching Test:
Match- I Match- II
A. Father of Modern Macroeconomics a. Milton Friedman
B. The term macroeconomics is given by b. Prof. J. M. Keynes
C. Monetarist c. Robert Lucas Jr.
D. Supply- side economist d. Ranger Frisch
E. New Classical economist e. Bruce Bartlett
Ans:
Match- I A B C D E
Match- II b d a e c
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Ques: What are the main tools of macroeconomics?
Ans: Fiscal Policy: relates to the management of government revenue, expenditure and debt to
achieve favorable effects and avoid unfavorable effects on income, output and
employment.
Monetary Policy: relates to the management of money supply and credit to step up
business activities, promote economic growth, stabilize the price level, achievement of full
employment and equilibrium in balance of payments.
Income Policy: through this policy direct control is exercised over prices and wages.
Ques: What are the main differences between microeconomics and macroeconomics?
Ans: The main differences between microeconomics and macroeconomics are as follows:
Differences based on Microeconomics Macroeconomics
5. Subject- matter: Small segments such as Large aggregates such as aggregate
individual household, individual demand, aggregate supply, national
firm, individual price, etc. income, general price level, etc.
6. Use of Partial equilibrium analysis General equilibrium analysis
techniques:
7. Assumptions: Full employment in the economy Underemployment of resources.
8. Core Price is the main determinant of Income is the main determinant of
differences: microeconomics. macroeconomics.
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2. National Income Accounting
Introduction:
National income is an important concept of macroeconomics. It is the measure of economic
activities in a country. It is the money value of all final goods and services produced by residents
of a country in a year. It is also defined as the sum of factor incomes in a country in a year. It is
also expressed in terms of aggregate expenditure of a country in a year.
Normal Residents: A person or institution who ordinarily resides in a country and whose centre
of economic interest lies in that country.
Normal Residents = Nationals living in Saudi Arabia + Non- nationals living in Saudi Arabia
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The persons who will not be included in the category of normal residents of a country:
Foreign nationals visiting the country for study tours, conferences, medical treatments,
etc., and staying for a period less than one year (these persons, if they stay on for more
than a year, will be considered as normal residents);
Crew members of foreign vessels, businessmen and seasonal workers in the country if
their stay is of less than a year (if they stay for more than one year, they will be
considered as normal residents);
International organizations (such as IMF, WTO, WHO, ILO, etc.) are not the normal
residents of a country where they are located. They are residents of international area;
Foreign national employees of international organizations, if their stay is of less than a
year. However, Saudi nationals employed in the offices of these organizations situated in
Saudi Arabia will be considered as normal residents of Saudi Arabia; and
Officials, diplomats and members of the armed forces of a foreign country.
Non- resident of a Country: if a Saudi national goes abroad and stays there for a period less
than one year, he will remain normal resident of Saudi Arabia. But, if he stays there for more
than one year he will be treated as non- resident of Saudi Arabia.
Flow: It is quantity that can be measured over specific period of the time.
Accounting Year: The financial year which the flow of income in an economy is recorded.
Capital formation: The surplus of the production over consumption in an accounting year
which is further used for production.
Intermediate Goods: Goods which are used in the production process to produce other goods.
Per Capita Income: This is the average income of the citizens of a country obtained after
dividing national income by living population.
Subsidies: economic assistance given to the producing unit by the state for compensating the
cost of product so that it is available to consumers at affordable prices.
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Circular Flow of Income:
Flow of Income in a Two- sector Economy:
Flow of Income in a Three- sector Economy (Introduction of Saving and Investment in the
Flow of Income):
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Flow of Income in a Four- sector Economy (Introduction of Foreign Trade in the Flow of
Income):
Gross Domestic Product at Market Price (GDPMP): Gross Domestic Product (GDPMP) is the
market value of all final goods and services produced within domestic territory of the country
during a year.
Features of GDPMP:
It includes only final goods and services produced in the domestic territory of a country;
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It includes consumption of fixed capital (depreciation);
It is estimated at the prevailing prices.
Gross Nation Product at Market Price (GNPMP): Gross National Product at market price is
Gross Domestic Product at market price plus net factor income from abroad. GNPMP is the
money value of all final goods and services produced in the domestic territory of a country
during a year plus Net factor income from abroad. i.e.,
Where,
Net Factor Income from Abroad (NFIA): Net factor income from abroad is the difference
between the income received from abroad for rendering factor services by the normal residents
of the country to the rest of the world and income paid for the factor services rendered by non-
residents in the domestic territory of a country.
Net Domestic Product at Market Prices (NDPMP): Net Domestic Product at market prices is
the net market value of all the final goods and services produced in domestic territory of a
country during a year. Net market value of the goods is equal to the market value of goods minus
depreciation.
Where,
Net National Product at Market Price (NNPMP): Net National Product at Market Prices is the
net market value of all the final goods and services produced by the normal residents of a
country during a year.
NNPMP = GNPMP – D
Where,
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Gross Domestic Product at Factor Cost (GDPFC): It is the sum of net value added at factor
cost by all the producers in the domestic territory of a country and the consumption of fixed
capital during an accounting year. i.e.,
GDPFC = GDPMP – IT + S
Gross National Product at Factor Cost (GNPFC): It is the difference between the GNPMP and
net indirect taxes. It is the sum of net domestic factor income, consumption of fixed capital and
net factor income from abroad. Symbolically,
GNPFC = GNPMP – IT + S
Net Domestic Product at Factor Cost (NDPFC): Net domestic income is the income generated
in the form of wages, rent, interest and profit in the domestic territory of a country by all the
producers (normal and non- normal residents) in an accounting year. In other words,
NDPFC = NDPMP – IT + S
Where;
Net Indirect Tax: The difference between IT and S is known as net indirect tax.
Net National Product at Factor Cost (NNPFC): Net National Product at the factor cost is the
sum total of net value added at factor cost by all the normal residents producer enterprises of a
country during a year. Symbolically,
It is also expressed as the sum of domestic factor income and net factor income from abroad. i.e.,
Net National Product at Factor Cost (NNPFC) is also known as National Income.
Personal Income: Personal income is sum of all kinds of income received by the individuals
from all sources.
Private Income: It refers to the income which accrues to individuals from whatsoever source,
within the domestic territory of a country and abroad.
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Distinction between Private Income and Personal Income: Private income includes all the
payments which accrue to individuals from whatever sources while personal income includes
only those payments which are actually received by the individuals.
Personal Disposable Income: It refers to that part of personal income which is actually
available to households for consumption and saving. In other words,
Personal Disposable Income = Personal Income – (Direct Taxes + Fines, Fees, etc. + Social
Security Contributions by Employees)
Net National Disposable Income: It is the sum of national income, net indirect taxes and other
current transfers from the rest of the world. In other words,
Net National Disposable Income = National Income + Net Indirect Taxes + Net Capital
Transfers from the rest of the World
Per Capita Income (PCI): It is the average income of the normal residents of a country.
Symbolically,
𝑁𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 (𝑁𝑁𝑃𝑎𝑡 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡)
PCI =
𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
Real Income: The income measured in physical term or in terms of the quantity of goods and
services. It is calculated at some base year.
GDP Deflator: It is nominal GDP (current price) divided by real GDP (base year price).
𝑁𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝐺𝐷𝑃
GDP Deflator = × 100
𝑅𝑒𝑎𝑙 𝐺𝐷𝑃
There are three methods of the measurement of the national income. They are as follows:
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3. Expenditure Method
The economy consists of either public or private enterprises. The enterprises contribute to the
production with the help of given factors of production. In the economy the produced goods are
useful for producers and individuals or we can say that they are either consumer goods or the
producer goods. In the same way there are various people who are not directly producing. But
without providing their services the economy cannot run. For example the services of doctor,
teachers, Police, bank services etc. are necessary for economic development. Those people who
are providing these services are paid in terms of the wages and salaries.
Therefore , Value added method or product method of the estimation of the national income
states that if we add all the money value of the final goods and services in domestic territory of
the in an accounting year time gives us Gross Domestic Product at market prices.
Steps for the Estimation of National Income by Value Added or Product Method
INCOME METHOD
According to the income method, national income is estimated by adding incomes earned by all
factors of production for their factor services during a year. The factor services include land,
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labour, capital and enterprises. These factor services received the income against their services.
The factors income distributed as follow:
EXPENDITURE METHOD
According to the expenditure method, the gross domestic product (GDP) is the sum total of all
final expenditure on various goods and services within domestic territory of the country, during a
year. The main components of the final expenditure are as follows;
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III. Government purchase of goods and services(G)
IV. Net Exports (X-M) Where, X for exports and M for Imports
Where,
NNPMP = GNPMP – D
GDPFC = GDPMP – IT + S
GNPFC = GNPMP – IT + S
NDPFC = NDPMP – IT + S
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Personal Income = Private Income – Corporate Taxes – Corporate Savings
Personal Disposable Income = Personal Income – (Direct Taxes + Fines, Fees, etc. + Social
Security Contributions by Employees)
Net National Disposable Income = National Income + Net Indirect Taxes + Net Capital
Transfers from the rest of the World
Gross Domestic Saving = Personal Savings + Private Corporate Savings + Public Savings.
𝑁𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 (𝑁𝑁𝑃𝑎𝑡 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡)
PCI =
𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑁𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝐺𝐷𝑃
GDP Deflator = × 100
𝑅𝑒𝑎𝑙 𝐺𝐷𝑃
2. The money value of all final goods and services produced in the domestic territory of a
country during a year plus Net factor income from abroad is called------------
a. GDPMP b. GDPFC
c. GNPMP d. GNPFC
3. The difference between the income received from abroad for rendering factor services by
the normal residents of the country to the rest of the world and income paid for the factor
services rendered by nonresidents in the domestic territory of a country is known as-------
a. Net Factor Income from Abroad b. Capital Consumption Allowances
c. Depreciation d. None of these.
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5. Net National Product at Factor Cost (NNPFC) is also known as------------
a. Net Factor Income from Abroad b. National Income
c. National cost d. Net Indirect Tax.
6. That part of personal income which is actually available to households for consumption
and saving is called-----------
a. National Disposable Income b. Personal Disposable Income
c. Personal Income d. None.
9. Sum of all kinds of income received by the individuals from all sources is called---------
a. Personal Income b. Private Income
c. Personal Disposable Income d. None
Ques 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Ans a c a d b b b a a a
Write T for True and F for False against each of the following statements:
1. GNPMP is the money value of all final goods and services produced in the domestic
territory of a country during a year.
2. Gross Domestic Product (GDPMP) is the market value of all final goods and services
produced within domestic territory of the country during a year.
3. GNPMP = GDPMP + NFIA
4. NDPMP = GDPMP – D (or CCA)
5. NNPMP = GNPMP – D
6. Net National Product at Factor Cost (NNPFC) is also known as National Income.
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7. The difference between IT and S is known as net indirect tax.
8. GDPMP does not include consumption of fixed capital (depreciation).
Ques 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Ans
Matching Test:
Factors of Production- I Factors Income- II
1. Land A. Rent
2. Labour B. Wages or Salaries
3. Capital C. Interest
4. Enterprises D. Profit
Match- I 1 2 3 4
Match- II A B C D
Match- I Match- II
A. GDPMP + NFIA 1. GNPFC
B. GNPMP – IT + S 2. GNPMP
C. GNPMP – D 3. NNPFC
D. NDPFC + NFIA 4. NNPMP
Match- I A B C D
Match- II 2 1 4 3
Answer: It is the money value of all final goods and services produced by residents of a country
in a year. It is also defined as the sum of factor incomes in a country in a year. It is also
expressed in terms of aggregate expenditure of a country in a year.
Answer: Followings are the points which shows the importance of national income accounting:
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Signification for Economic Analysis, etc.
Answer: It includes land mass of a country, territorial waters, ships and aircrafts owned and
operated by residents across countries, fishing vessels, oil rigs and floating platforms
and embassies abroad.
Answer: A person or institution who ordinarily resides in a country and whose centre of
economic interest lies in that country is called normal resident.
Normal Residents = Nationals living in Saudi Arabia + Non- nationals living in Saudi Arabia
Answer: if a Saudi national goes abroad and stays there for a period less than one year, he will
remain normal resident of Saudi Arabia. But, if he stays there for more than one year he
will be treated as non- resident of Saudi Arabia.
Answer: The surplus of the production over consumption in an accounting year which is further
used for production is called capital formation.
Answer: Goods which directly satisfies human wants are called final goods.
Answer: Goods which are used in the production process to produce other goods are called
intermediate goods.
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Question: What is Gross Domestic Product at Market Price (GDPMP)?
Answer: Gross Domestic Product (GDPMP) is the market value of all final goods and services
produced within domestic territory of the country during a year.
It includes only final goods and services produced in the domestic territory of a country;
It includes consumption of fixed capital (depreciation);
It is estimated at the prevailing prices.
Answer: Gross National Product at market price is Gross Domestic Product at market price plus
net factor income from abroad. GNPMP is the money value of all final goods and
services produced in the domestic territory of a country during a year plus Net factor
income from abroad. i.e.,
Where,
Question: What do you understand by Net Factor Income from Abroad (NFIA)?
Answer: Net factor income from abroad is the difference between the income received from
abroad for rendering factor services by the normal residents of the country to the rest
of the world and income paid for the factor services rendered by nonresidents in the
domestic territory of a country.
Answer: Net Domestic Product at market prices is the net market value of all the final goods and
services produced in domestic territory of a country during a year. Net market value of
the goods is equal to the market value of goods minus depreciation.
Where,
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D = Depreciation
CCA= Capital Consumption Allowances
Answer: Net National Product at Answer: Market Prices is the net market value of all the final
goods and services produced by the normal residents of a country during a year.
NNPMP = GNPMP – D
Where,
Answer: It is the sum of net value added at factor cost by all the producers in the domestic
territory of a country and the consumption of fixed capital during an accounting year.
i.e.,
GDPFC = GNPMP – IT + S
Answer: It is the difference between the GNPMP and net indirect taxes. It is the sum of net
domestic factor income, consumption of fixed capital and net factor income from
abroad. Symbolically,
GNPFC = GNPMP – IT + S
Answer: Net domestic income is the income generated in the form of wages, rent, interest and
profit in the domestic territory of a country by all the producers (normal and non-
normal residents) in an accounting year. In other words,
NDPFC = NDPMP – IT + S
Where;
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Question: What is Net Indirect Tax?
Answer: The difference between IT and S is known as net indirect tax.
Answer: Net National Product at the factor cost is the sum total of net value added at factor cost
by all the normal residents producer enterprises of a country during a year.
Symbolically,
It is also expressed as the sum of domestic factor income and net factor income from
abroad. i.e.,
Net National Product at Factor Cost (NNPFC) is also known as National Income.
Answer: Personal income is sum of all kinds of income received by the individuals from all
sources.
Answer: It refers to the income which accrues to individuals from whatsoever source, within the
domestic territory of a country and abroad.
Answer: Private income includes all the payments which accrue to individuals from whatever
sources while personal income includes only those payments which are actually
received by the individuals.
Answer: It refers to that part of personal income which is actually available to households for
consumption and saving. In other words,
Personal Disposable Income = Personal Income – (Direct Taxes + Fines, Fees, etc. +
Social Security Contributions by Employees)
Answer: It is the sum of national income, net indirect taxes and other current transfers from the
rest of the world. In other words,
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Net National Disposable Income = National Income + Net Indirect Taxes + Net
Capital Transfers from the rest of the World
Answer: The income measured in physical term or in terms of the quantity of goods and
services. It is calculated at some base year.
Answer: The income measured in term of current price is called nominal income.
Answer: It is nominal GDP (current price) divided by real GDP (base year price).
𝑁𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝐺𝐷𝑃
GDP Deflator = × 100
𝑅𝑒𝑎𝑙 𝐺𝐷𝑃
Answer: There are three methods of the measurement of the national income:
Question: Suppose a country produces four goods: rice, cloth, cement and cars. The
production of the four commodities in the year 2013- 14 was 1000 units, 5000
units, 2000 units and 500 units respectively. The per unit price of the four
commodities is SR 10, SR 20, SR 50 , and SR 2,00,000 respectively. Find out the
GDP at market prices.
Solution:
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Total Money Value in SR (GDPMP) = 10,02,10,000
Question: Suppose the gross domestic product at market prices of Saudi Arabia in 2012- 13
was SR 85,000 crores and net factor income from abroad was (-) SR 430 crores.
Calculate GNPMP.
= 35,800 – 1,670
= SR 34,130 Crores.
Question: Given the following data, calculate net domestic product at market prices:
Question: Given the following information, calculate net domestic product at factor cost:
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Question: Given the following information about an economy, calculate net domestic
product at factor cost:
= SR 3700 Cr
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3. Theory & Determination of Income and Employment
(Classical and Keynesian Theory)
Points to be remembered:
Employment ()توظيف: A situation when a person is able and willing to take up a job and
gets employed.
Full Employment ()كامل التوظيف: A situation where all those workers who are able and
willing to work get employment.
Under Employment ()تحت التوظيف: A situation when people are engaged in jobs but they
do not get these jobs according to their capabilities, efficiency and qualifications.
Unemployment ()بطالة: A situation when a person is willing to work but does not get
opportunity to work.
Involuntary Unemployment ()البطالة القسرية: A situation when the workers are willing to
work under any conditions and at any wage rate but they fail to get employment.
Voluntary Unemployment ()البطالة الطوعية: When the economy offers employment
opportunities to the workers, but they themselves are not willing to take up jobs because
the employment conditions such as wage rate, location, promotional avenues, physical
environment, attitude of the employer, etc., do not suit them.
Cyclical Unemployment ()البطالة الدورية: It is caused by slackness in business conditions.
During depression, investment activities get discouraged. Contraction in business
activities renders large numbers of workers unemployed.
Technological Unemployment ()البطالة التكنولوجية: It is generally found in the advanced
countries. The main cause of this unemployment is the introduction of the new
technology.
Frictional Unemployment ()البطالة االحتكاكية: It is a temporary unemployment which
exists during the period of the transfer of labor from one occupation to another.
Structural Unemployment ()البطالة الهيكلية: It is the result of the backwardness and
underdevelopment of an economy.
Disguised Unemployment ()البطالة المقنعة: When more workers are engaged in a work
than actually required to work, it is called disguised unemployment.
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Equilibrium level of employment ()مستوى التوازن للعمالة: level of employment where
aggregate demand equals aggregate supply.
Full employment level ()مستوى التوظيف الكامل: the level of employment where all the
available supply of labour is gainfully employed.
Excess demand ()الطلب الزائد: when aggregate demand exceeds aggregate supply at full
employment level.
Deficient demand ()الطلب ناقص: when aggregate demand falls short of aggregate supply
at full employment level.
Inflationary gap ()فجوة تضخمية: it occurs as an excess of anticipated expenditure over
available output at full employment level.
Deflationary gap ()الفجوة االنكماشية: it occurs as an excess of available aggregate output
over anticipated aggregate expenditure.
Ex- ante saving ()السابقين عليه سابقا االدخار: Ex- ante saving is what the savers plan (or
intend) to save at different levels of income in an economy. It is also known as intended
saving or planned saving.
Ex- post saving ()آخر سبيل توفير: It refers to actual or realized saving in an economy
during a year.
Ex- ante Investment ()السابقين أنتي االستثمار: Ex- ante investment is what the investors plan
(or intend) to invest at different levels of income in an economy. It is also known as
intended investment or planned investment.
Ex- post investment ()استثمار آخر السابقين: It refers to actual or realized investment in an
economy during a year.
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Flexibility ( )مرونةof the interest rates;
Flexibility of the wage rates.
According to Say’s Law of Market, “The supply creates its own demand”. It is an automatic
mechanism which establishes equilibrium between aggregate demand and aggregate supply.
The implication of the classical system is that there will never be a possibility of over-
production or under- production in the economy.
During the Great Depression of 1930s, the Classical Theory of Employment failed miserably.
Prof. J. M. Keynes developed a new theory of employment in his book “General Theory of
Employment, Interest and Money” published in 1936.
Keynesian theory of employment is based on the concept of effective demand. Keynes states that
demand creates its own supply.
Effective demand means the level of income where aggregate demand and aggregate supply are
equal.
Prof. J. M. Keynes used the approach of aggregate demand and aggregate supply for the
determination of full employment equilibrium.
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Aggregate Demand ()الطلب الكلي:
The total demand for goods and services in an economy in a year’s time is called aggregate
demand. It is expressed in terms of total expenditure of the community.
Goods and services are demanded for two purposes- (1) Consumption, and (2) Investment.
AD = C + I
Y=C+I
The aggregate demand schedule can be drawn by aggregating- aggregate consumption (C) and
aggregate investment (I) at different levels of income.
Consumption depends on income (Y), propensity to consume (c) and many other factors.
C = a + cY
10 25
40
20 30
30 35 20
40 40
50 45 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
60 50
Aggregate Investment:
Induced Investment: It is expenditure both on fixed assets and on the stocks that are required if
the economy is to be able to produce a bigger output as aggregate demand rises.
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Here, we assume that only investment expenditure that is incurred in the economy is in the form
of autonomous investment.
10 20 20
20 20 15
30 20 10
40 20 5
50 20 0
60 20 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Aggregate demand schedule can be derived by adding consumption schedule and investment
schedule.
Symbolically,
AD = C + I + G + (X-M)
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Aggregate Supply:
It refers to the money value of all goods and services produced in a country in a year’s time. It, in
fact, refers to the national income of a country because it is the money value of all goods and
services produced in a year’s time.
Y=C+S
Aggregate supply schedule can be formed by aggregating consumption expenditure and savings
at different levels of income.
Determination of Equilibrium:
AS and AD Approach:
Equilibrium level of income is determined where aggregate demand curve cuts aggregate supply.
In other words, the level of income will be in equilibrium where aggregate demand is equal to
aggregate supply.
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Example:
If AD > AS If AD < AS
↓ ↓
Increase in employment of factor services Decrease in employment of factor services
↓
Increase in the level of output of goods and Decrease in the level of output of goods and
services services
↓ ↓
Ultimately AD = AS Ultimately AD = AS
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Alternative Approach to Equilibrium (Saving and Investment Approach):
Since, AD is:
Y = C + I, ……………………………………… (1)
And,
AS is:
Y = C + S, …………………………………….. (2)
By putting together equations (1) and (2), we get
C+I=C+S
Hence,
I=S
i.e., aggregate investment equals aggregate saving in the economy.
Diagrammatic Presentation:
Equilibrium level of employment (or income) is determined by the intersection of the aggregate
demand and aggregate supply schedule.
The classical economists held the view that this equilibrium level of employment would be full
employment level. There will be no involuntary unemployment either of labour or of capital. If
there were to be any unemployment resources, wage rates and interest rates would move.
Movement in the wage rates and interest rates would serve to bring full employment in the
economy.
Prof. J. M. Keynes did not agree with this view of the classical economists. He gave three types
of equilibrium situations:
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Equilibrium at full employment level: this will obtain when the equality of AD and AS occurs at
a level where at the available resources are gainfully employed.
Equilibrium at less than full employment level (Deflationary gap): this will occur when the
aggregate demand is not sufficient to absorb all those who seek employment. Clearly, there will
be involuntary unemployment in the economy. This would have been caused by deficient
demand.
Equilibrium at more than full employment level (Inflationary gap): this will occur when the
available resources in the economy are not sufficient to meet the aggregate demand for goods
and services. Clearly, this situation is caused by excess demand in the economy.
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Effects of Excess Demand:
In case of excess demand, the planned aggregate expenditure is more than the planned aggregate
output. All the available resources are already fully employed. Therefore, there is no chance to
increase the level of employment further.
Likewise, since no additional resources are available, it will not be possible either to increase the
level of output.
But, in case, there is already full employment in the economy large aggregate expenditure in the
economy would result in a rise in the general price level. Thus, excess demand has a general
inflationary potential and that is why excess demand is known as inflationary gap.
In case of deficient demand, the planned aggregate expenditure is less than the planned aggregate
output. In this case, there will be tendency to curtail the employment.
Since the aggregate output cannot be absorbed by the aggregate expenditure, the surplus
availability of output will result in a fall in the general price level. Thus, deficient demand has a
general deflationary potential and that is why it is also known as deflationary gap.
1. Fiscal policy:
Reduction in tax rates; and
Increase in government expenditure.
2. Monetary policy:
Reduction in bank rate;
Reduction in reserve ratios; and
Purchase of government securities.
3. Export promotion:
1. Fiscal policy:
Rise in tax rates; and
Decrease in government expenditure.
2. Monetary policy:
Rise in bank rate;
Increase in reserve ratios; and
Sale of government securities.
3. Import promotion:
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Questions for Review
Multiple Choice Questions with Answer:
1. A situation when a person is able and willing to take up a job and gets employed, it is
called-
a. Employment b. Full Employment
c. Under Employment d. Unemployment.
2. A situation when people are engaged in jobs but they do not get these jobs according to
their capabilities, efficiency and qualifications, it is called-
a. Employment b. Full Employment
c. Under Employment d. Unemployment.
3. A situation when the workers are willing to work under any conditions and at any wage
rate but they fail to get employment, it is called-
a. Voluntary Unemployment b. Involuntary Unemployment
c. Cyclical Unemployment d. Frictional Unemployment
4. A temporary unemployment which exists during the period of the transfer of labor from
one occupation to another is called-
a. Voluntary Unemployment b. Involuntary Unemployment
c. Cyclical Unemployment d. Frictional Unemployment
5. When more workers are engaged in a work than actually required to work, it is called-
a. Voluntary Unemployment b. Involuntary Unemployment
c. Disguised Unemployment d. Frictional Unemployment
6. Who developed the Classical Theory of Income and Employment?
a. J. B. Say b. J. S. Mill
c. Ricardo d. All of the above.
7. “The supply creates its own demand”. This is the famous law of----
a. Market (Say’s Law of Market) b. Demand
c. Supply d. None of the above.
8. The book General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money was written by----
a. J. N. Keynes b. J. M. Keynes
c. Ricardo d. None of the above.
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9. Keynesian theory of employment is based on the concept of------------
a. Aggregate Demand b. Aggregate Supply
c. Aggregate Demand and Supply both d. None.
10. The investment which is undertaken independently of the level of income is known as----
a. Autonomous Investment b. Induced Investment
c. Public Investment d. Private Investment
11. The components of aggregate demand is/ are------
a. Household consumption expenditure b. Govt final conspt. expenditure
c. Pvt and public invt expenditure d. All
12. Determination equilibrium of an economy can be studied by-----
a. Equality of AD and AS b. Equality of saving and investment
c. Both a and b d. None.
Q.N. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Ans. a c b d c d a b c a d c
Write T for True and F for False against each of the following statements:
1. The Classical theory of Income and Employment states that full employment is a normal
feature of a capitalist economy.
2. The classical theory of employment rules out the possibility of unemployment in a free
market economy.
3. According to classical economists the economy would never be in a full employment
equilibrium.
4. Keynesian theory of employment is based on the concept of effective demand.
5. Effective demand means the level of income where aggregate demand and aggregate
supply are equal.
6. Classical economists used the approach of aggregate demand and aggregate supply for
the determination of full employment equilibrium.
7. Induced investment is expenditure both on fixed assets and on the stocks that are required
if the economy is to be able to produce a bigger output as aggregate demand rises.
44 | P a g e
8. AD = C + I + G + (X-M)
9. Equilibrium level of income is determined where aggregate demand curve cuts aggregate
supply.
10. The level of income will be in equilibrium when aggregate demand is greater than
aggregate supply.
Q.N. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Ans. T T F T F F T T T F
Matching Test:
Match-I Match-II
A. Ex- ante Saving 1. Actual Saving
B. Ex- post Saving 2. Intended or planed Saving
C. Supply creates its own demand 3. J. M. Keynes
D. Demand creates its own supply 4. J. B. Say
Match-I A B C D
Match-II 2 1 4 3
Match-I Match-II
A. Voluntary Unemployment 1. When more workers are engaged in a work than
actually required to work.
B. Involuntary Unemployment 2. It is a temporary unemployment which exists during
the period of the transfer of labor from one
occupation to another.
C. Frictional Unemployment 3. A situation when the workers are willing to work
under any conditions and at any wage rate but they
fail to get employment.
D. Disguised Unemployment 4. When the economy offers employment
opportunities to the workers, but they themselves
are not willing to take up jobs.
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Match-I A B C D
Match-II 4 3 2 1
Match-I Match-II
A. When AD > AS 1. Decrease in employment and output
B. When AD < AS 2. Increase in employment and output
C. When AD = AS 3. Equilibrium level of income and employment
D. AS = 4. C + I + G + (X - M)
E. AD = 5. C + S
Match-I A B C D E
Match-II 2 1 3 5 4
Questions with Answers:
1. What is employment (?)توظيف
A situation when a person is able and willing to take up a job and gets employed is called
employment.
2. What is full employment (?)كامل التوظيف
A situation where all those workers who are able and willing to work get employment.
3. What is under employment (?)تحت التوظيف
A situation when people are engaged in jobs but they do not get these jobs according to
their capabilities, efficiency and qualifications.
4. What is unemployment (?)بطالة
A situation when a person is willing to work but does not get opportunity to work.
5. What do you mean by involuntary unemployment (?)البطالة القسرية
A situation when the workers are willing to work under any conditions and at any wage
rate but they fail to get employment.
6. What do you understand by the term voluntary unemployment (?)البطالة الطوعية
When the economy offers employment opportunities to the workers, but they themselves
are not willing to take up jobs because the employment conditions such as wage rate,
location, promotional avenues, physical environment, attitude of the employer, etc., do
not suit them.
46 | P a g e
7. What is cyclical unemployment (?)البطالة الدورية
It is caused by slackness in business conditions. During depression, investment activities
get discouraged. Contraction in business activities renders large numbers of workers
unemployed.
8. What is technological unemployment (?)البطالة التكنولوجية
It is generally found in the advanced countries. The main cause of this unemployment is
the introduction of the new technology.
9. What is frictional unemployment (?)البطالة االحتكاكية
It is a temporary unemployment which exists during the period of the transfer of labor
from one occupation to another.
10. What is structural unemployment (?)البطالة الهيكلية
It is the result of the backwardness and underdevelopment of an economy.
11. What do you mean by disguised unemployment (?)البطالة المقنعة
When more workers are engaged in a work than actually required to work, it is called
disguised unemployment.
12. Who are classical economists?
The old economists such as Adam Smith, J. B. Say, J. S. Mill, Ricardo, etc. who believe
in laissez faire policy (non- interference of government in any economic activities) are
called classical economists.
13. What is classical theory of income and employment?
The Classical theory of income and employment states that full employment is a normal
feature of a capitalist economy. The classical theory of employment rules out the
possibility of unemployment in a free market economy. The economy would always be in
a full employment equilibrium.
14. What are the assumptions on which the classical theory of income and employment
based?
The classical theory of employment is based on the following assumptions:
The Say’s law of market;
Flexibility ( )مرونةof the interest rates;
Flexibility of the wage rates.
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15. What is Say’s Law of Market?
According to Say’s Law of Market, “The supply creates its own demand”. It is an
automatic mechanism which establishes equilibrium between aggregate demand and
aggregate supply.
16. What is the main implication of classical theory of income and employment?
The implication of the classical system is that there will never be a possibility of over-
production or under- production in the economy. The economy would always be in a full
employment equilibrium.
17. Sketch the Classical theory of income and employment through diagram.
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19. What is modern theory of income and employment?
Or, What is Keynesian theory of income and employment?
Prof. J. M. Keynes developed a new theory of employment in his book “General Theory
of Employment, Interest and Money” published in 1936. His theory of employment is
based on the concept of effective demand. Keynes states that demand creates its own
supply. Effective demand means the level of income where aggregate demand and
aggregate supply are equal. Prof. J. M. Keynes used the approach of aggregate demand
and aggregate supply for the determination of full employment equilibrium.
20. What is aggregate demand?
The total demand for goods and services in an economy in a year’s time is called
aggregate demand. It is expressed in terms of total expenditure of the community.
AD = C + I
Y=C+I
Symbolically,
AD = C + I + G + (X-M)
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23. What is full employment level (?)مستوى التوظيف الكامل
The level of employment where all the available supply of labour is gainfully employed
is called full employment level.
24. What is excess demand (?)الطلب الزائد
When aggregate demand exceeds aggregate supply at full employment level, it is called
excess demand.
25. What is deficient demand (?)الطلب ناقص
When aggregate demand falls short of aggregate supply at full employment level, it is
called deficient demand.
26. What is inflationary gap (?)فجوة تضخمية
It occurs as an excess of anticipated expenditure over available output at full employment
level.
27. How you can show the inflationary gap diagrammatically?
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29. How you can show the deflationary gap diagrammatically?
Y=C+S
32. What are ex- ante saving and ex- post saving?
Ex- ante saving: Ex- ante saving is what the savers plan (or intend) to save at different
levels of income in an economy. It is also known as intended saving or planned saving.
Ex- post saving: It refers to actual or realized saving in an economy during a year.
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33. What are ex- ante investment and ex- post investment?
Ex- ante Investment: Ex- ante investment is what the investors plan (or intend) to invest
at different levels of income in an economy. It is also known as intended investment or
planned investment.
Ex- post investment: It refers to actual or realized investment in an economy during a
year.
34. How the Keynesian theory of income and employment is determined through
aggregate demand and aggregate supply? Explain it through diagram.
Equilibrium level of income is determined where aggregate demand curve cuts aggregate
supply. In other words, the level of income will be in equilibrium where aggregate
demand is equal to aggregate supply.
Example:
If AD > AS If AD < AS
↓ ↓
Increase in employment of factor services Decrease in employment of factor
services
↓ ↓
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Increase in the level of output of goods and Decrease in the level of output of goods and
services services
↓ ↓
Ultimately AD = AS Ultimately AD = AS
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Chapter- 4: Consumption & Saving ()إنقاذ و استهالك
The concept of consumption function plays an important role in Keynes’ theory of income and
employment. According to Keynes, of all the factors it is the current level of income that
determines the consumption of an individual and also of society.
Consumption Function ()استهالك وظيفة: the relationship between various level of disposable
income and consumption expenditure.
C = f(Yd) = a + bYd
Where, C = Consumption;
Yd = Level of Income;
a = Intercept or Autonomous consumption (does not dependent on income);
b = Slope of consumption curve (or, MPC or proportion of disposable income which is
consumed); and
f = function (that is, depends on)
Consumption Curve ()منحنى استهالك: the curve which shows the relationship between
consumption expenditure and income is called consumption curve.
Propensity to consume ()الميل لالستهالك: Ratio between consumption expenditure and aggregate
income.
Average propensity to consume (APC) ()متوسط الميل لالستهالك: Ratio between total consumption
expenditure and aggregate income (C/Y).
Example: Suppose the level of income of Saudi economy is SR 50,000 million and consumption
is SR 40,000 million. What is the average propensity to consume for the Saudi
𝐶
economy? (Hint: Average Propensity to Consume (APC) = )
𝑌
Marginal propensity to consume (MPC) ()الميل الحدي لالستهالك: Ratio between addition to total
consumption expenditure and addition to total income (∆C/∆Y). It varies between zero and one.
Example: Suppose the income increases from SR 50,000 million to SR 60,000 million and as a
result consumption increases from SR 40,000 to SR 47,000 million in Saudi economy.
What is the marginal propensity to consume for the Saudi economy?
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Where ∆C = SR 47,000 – SR 40,000 = SR 7000 million
Hence,
The marginal propensity to consume (MPC) for the Saudi economy = ∆C/∆Y = 7000/10000 =
0.7 = 70 %.
C = a + bY
Y is level of income.
Example: Suppose the value of autonomous consumption (a) is SR 40 million and marginal
propensity to consume (b) is 0.6, then how can you estimate consumption at different
levels of income (0, 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, and so on)?
If Y = 0, then C = a + bY
= 40 + 0.6× 0 = 0
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If Y = 100, then C = a + bY
= 40 + 0.6× 100
= 100
If Y = 200, then C = a + bY
= 40 + 0.6× 200
= 160
In the same way, we can calculate other values of consumption as shown in the following table:
Consumption Schedule (C = a +
bY; where a= 40; and b = 0.6) Consumption Function, C = a + bY
Where, C = Consumption Expenditure;
Income Consumption a = autonomous consumption;
(Y) (C = a + bY) b = MPC or slope of Consumption Curve
= ∆C/∆Y
400
0 40
100 100 300
The above table shows that aggregate consumption varies directly but not proportionately with
the level of income.
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ii. Life cycle theory of consumption (Ando A. Modigliani);
iii. Permanent income theory of consumption (Friedman)
Objective factors: changes in general price level, rate of interest, stock of wealth, fiscal policy,
credit conditions, income distribution, windfall gains and losses, change in expectations.
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Consumption Function Puzzle: Keynes’ Consumption Function and Kuznets
Findings:
Kuznets’ consumption function contradicts Keynes’ consumption function which is known as
consumption function puzzle.
C = a + bY
Where a is a positive intercept, known as autonomous consumption as it does not vary with
income and b is marginal propensity to consume (∆C/∆Y) which falls as income increases.
On the other hand, Kuznets found that consumption function is of the form:
C = bY
So, we can see that implication of Keynes’ consumption function (C = a + bY) and Kuznets’
consumption function (C = bY) are different. Whereas in Keynes’ consumption function APC
falls as income rises, in Kuznets’ consumption function it remains constant over a long period.
Further, the value of MPC which is less than one is much higher in Kuznets function as compare
to Keynes’ consumption function. Keynes’ consumption function is short- run consumption
function whereas Kuznets’ function is a long- run consumption function.
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Relative Income Theory of Consumption:
An American economist J. S. Duesenberry gave stress on relative income rather than absolute
income as a determinant of consumption. According to this theory, consumption of an individual
is not the function of his absolute income but of his relative position in the income distribution in
a society that is, his consumption depends on his income relative to the incomes of other
individuals in the society.
For example, if the incomes of all individuals in a society increase by the same percentage, then
his relative income would remain the same, though his absolute income would have increased.
According to Duesenberry, because his relative income has remained the same the individual
will spend the same proportion on consumption as he was doing before the absolute increase in
his income. That is, his average propensity to consume (APC) will remain the same despite the
increase in his absolute income.
Duesenberry’s relative income theory suggests that as income increases consumption function
curve shifts above so that average propensity to consume remains constant. This is due to
demonstration effect and ratchet effect.
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Permanent Income Theory of Consumption:
This theory has been given by Milton Friedman. According to this theory, consumption is
determined by long- term expected income rather than current level of income. It is this long-
term expected income which is called by Friedman as permanent income on the basis of which
people make their consumption plans.
Saving:
Saving is excess of income over consumption expenditure.
Symbolically,
S=Y–C
Where, S = Saving;
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Y = Income; and
C = Consumption expenditure.
Like consumption, saving is also a function of income. In other words, saving depends on money
income.
Saving Function: the relationship between income and saving is called saving function.
S = f(Y)
Saving function explains the relationship between national income and aggregate savings.
S = -a + (1-b)Y
Where, S = Saving;
-a = saving at zero level of income;
b = marginal propensity to save (mps); and
Y = Level of Income.
Example: suppose for the Saudi economy, the value of –a = 40, and b = 0.6. How can you
estimate saving at different levels of income?
= -40 + 0 = -40
= -40 + 0.4×100
= -40 + 40 = 0
In the same way, we can calculate other values of saving at different levels of income as
shown in the following table:
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Income Saving (S = -a
Saving (S = -a + (1-b)Y)
(Y) + (1-b)Y) Where, S = Saving;
-a = saving at zero level of income;
0 -40 b = mps or slope of saving function
200
100 0
150
200 40
100
300 80
50
400 120
0
500 160 0 100 200 300 400 500
-50
Average propensity to save (APS): Ratio between total saving and aggregate income (S/Y).
Example: If at a particular time the level of income in Saudi economy is SR 50,000 million and
the level of saving is SR 10,000 million (assuming consumption equal to SR 40,000 million at this
level of income). What is the average propensity to save for the Saudi economy?
𝑆𝑎𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 (𝑆)
Solution: Since, Average Propensity to Save (APS) = 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 (𝑌)
Hence,
𝑆𝑎𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 (𝑆) 10,000
Average Propensity to Save (APS) = 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 (𝑌) = 50,000 = 0.2 = 20 %
Marginal propensity to save (MPS): Ratio between addition to total saving and addition to total
income (∆S/∆Y).
Example: Suppose at the income level of SR 50,000 million, saving amounts to SR 11,000
million. An income at SR 60,000 million, saving increased to SR 14,000 million. What is the
marginal propensity to save for the Saudi economy?
𝐴𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑆𝑎𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 (∆𝑆)
Solution: Since, Marginal Propensity to Save (MPS) = 𝐴𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 (∆𝑌)
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Hence,
∆𝑆 3,000
Marginal Propensity to Save (MPS) = ∆𝑌 = 10,000 = 0.3 = 30 %
The sum of average propensity to consume (APC) and average propensity to save (APS) is
always equal to unity.
In other words, APC + APS = 1. (Y = C + S, Dividing both side by Y, we get, APC + APS = 1)
It is so because the money income can either be spent on consumption or it can be saved.
The sum of marginal propensity to consume (MPC) and marginal propensity to save (MPS) is
always equal to unity. In other words, MPC + MPS = 1.
1 = MPC + MPS
MPC + MPS = 1
Example: The relationship between propensity to consume and propensity to save is shown with
the help of following table:-
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Review Questions
I. Multiple Choice Questions with Answer:
1. The French economist Jean-Baptiste Say transformed the equality of total output and total
spending into a law that can be expressed as follows:
a. Unemployment is not possible in the short run.
b. Demand and supply are never equal.
c. Supply creates its own demand.
d. Demand creates its own supply.
2. The classical economists argued that the production of goods and services (supply) generates
an equal amount of total income and, in turn, total spending. This theory is called:
a. Keynes' General Theory.
b. Say's Law.
c. The "animal spirits" theory.
d. The law of autonomous consumption.
4. The school of thought that emphasizes the natural tendency for an economy to move toward
equilibrium full employment without inflation is known as the:
a. Keynesian school.
b. Supply- side school.
c. Non-interventionist school.
d. Rational expectations school.
e. Classical school.
6. The consumption function shows the relationship between consumer expenditures and:
a. The interest rate.
b. The tax rate.
c. Savings.
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d. Disposable income.
10. At the point where the disposable income line intersects the consumption function, saving:
a. equals consumption.
b. equals disposable income.
c. is less than zero.
d. is equal to zero.
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13. Given the consumption function C = $100 billion + 0.75 ($300 billion), autonomous
consumption is equal to:
a. $100 billion.
b. $225 billion.
c. $300 billion.
d. $325 billion.
e. $400 billion.
14. That part of disposal income not spent on consumption is defined as:
a. transitory disposable income.
b. permanent disposable income.
c. disposal income.
d. autonomous consumption.
e. saving.
15. If disposal income is $400 billion, autonomous consumption is $60 billion, and MPC is 0.8,
what is the level of saving?
a. $20 billion.
b. $210 billion.
c. $380 billion.
d. $590 billion.
e. $780 billion.
16. The marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is computed as the change in:
a. consumption divided by the change in savings.
b. consumption divided by the change in disposable personal income.
c. consumption divided by the change in GDP.
d. None of the above.
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19. The change in consumption divided by a change in disposable income is defined as:
a. the marginal propensity to consume.
b. autonomous consumption.
c. the consumption function.
d. Keynes' absolute disposable income hypothesis.
e. transitory consumption.
22. The marginal propensity to save (MPS) is computed as the change in:
a. savings divided by the change in saving.
b. savings divided by the change in disposable personal income.
c. saving divided by the change in GDP.
d. None of the above.
23. If your disposable personal income increases from $30,000 to $40,000 and your savings
increases from $2,000 to $4,000, your marginal propensity to save (MPS) is:
a. 0.2.
b. 0.4.
c. 0.5.
d. 0.8.
e. 1.0.
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b. the marginal propensity to save = 1.33.
c. the marginal propensity to save = 0.20.
d. the marginal propensity to save = 0.25.
e. since the marginal propensity to save and the marginal propensity to
consume are unrelated, we cannot determine the marginal propensity to save
from the information given.
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Diagram- 3 Consumption function
a. J. M. Keynes b. J. S. Duesenberry
c. Ando A. Modigliani d. Friedman
31. The absolute income theory of consumption has been given by-----
a. J. M. Keynes b. J. S. Duesenberry
c. Ando A. Modigliani d. Friedman
a. J. M. Keynes b. J. S. Duesenberry
c. Ando A. Modigliani d. Friedman
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Q. No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Ans. c b a e d d d e d D
Q. No. 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Ans. c c a e a b c d a d
Q. No. 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
Ans. e b a b d b c b b a a b
Write T for True and F for False against each of the following statements:
1. The concept of consumption function is given by Prof. J. M. Keynes.
2. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money was written by Prof. J. N.
Keynes in 1936.
3. Consumption function shows the relationship between consumption expenditure and
various level of disposable income.
4. Marginal propensity to consume varies between zero and infinity.
5. Average propensity to consume is the addition in consumption to the addition in
disposable income.
6. The sum of average propensity to consume and marginal propensity to consume is always
equal to one.
7. The sum of average propensity to consume and average propensity to save is always
equal to one.
8. Autonomous consumption depends on level of income.
9. Friedman has given the famous psychological law of consumption.
10. “a” is autonomous consumption and “b” is the marginal propensity to consume in the
consumption equation, C= a + bY.
11. Marginal propensity to consume is the slope of consumption curve.
12. When saving is equal to zero, consumption is equal to disposable income.
13. In the equation C = 500 + 0.80Y, marginal propensity to save is equal to 30 per cent.
14. In the equation C = 500 + 0.80Y, the marginal propensity to save is equal to 20 per cent.
15. In the equation C = 500 + 0.80Y, autonomous consumption is equal to 500.
Q 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
A T F T F F F T F F T T T F T T
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1. Matching Test:
Match- I Match- II
A. Average Propensity to Consume (APC) 𝛥𝐶
1.
𝛥𝑌
B. Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) 𝛥𝑆
2.
𝛥𝑌
C. Average Propensity to Save (APS) 𝐶
3.
𝑌
D. Marginal Propensity to Save (MPS) 𝑆
4.
𝑌
Match- I A B C D
Match- II 3 1 4 2
2. Matching Test:
Match- I Match- II
A. The absolute income theory of 1. Friedman
consumption
B. Relative income theory of consumption 2. J. S. Duesenberry
C. Life cycle theory of consumption 3. J. M. Keynes
D. Permanent income theory of 4. Ando and Modigliani
consumption
Match- I A B C D
Match- II 3 2 4 1
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Match- I Match- II
A. Autonomous Consumption 1. 100
B. MPC at income level 500 2. 0.25
C. APS at income level 600 3. 0.75
D. MPS at income level 200 4. 0.08
Match- I A B C D
Match- II 1 3 4 2
Where, C = Consumption;
Yd = Level of Income; and
f = function (that is, depends on)
Consumption function, C = a + bY
Where; C is consumption expenditure;
a is consumption (autonomous consumption) at zero level of income and it
remains constant;
b is marginal propensity to consume (∆C/∆Y) or slope of consumption function;
and
Y is level of income.
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4. What is absolute income theory of consumption?
Or, what is Psychological law of consumption?
Prof. Keynes laid stress on the absolute size of income as a determinant of consumption
and his theory is known as absolute income theory of consumption. He gave a
psychological law of consumption which state that as income increases consumption
increases but not by as much as the increase in income.
This theory has been given by Milton Friedman. According to this theory, consumption is
determined by long- term expected income rather than current level of income. It is this
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long- term expected income which is called by Friedman as permanent income on the
basis of which people make their consumption plans.
Where, S = Saving;
-a = saving at zero level of income;
b = marginal propensity to save (mps); and
Y = Level of Income.
Since, S = Y – C, and C = a + bY
S = Y – (a + bY)
S = Y – a – bY
S = - a + Y – bY
S = -a + Y(1-b)
S = -a + (1-b)Y
8. Define average propensity to save (APS) and marginal propensity to save (MPS).
Average propensity to save (APS): Ratio between total saving and aggregate income
(S/Y) is called average propensity to save.
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Marginal propensity to save (MPS): Ratio between addition to total saving and addition
to total income (∆S/∆Y) is called marginal propensity to save.
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Chapter- 5: The IS- LM Curve Model
Introduction:
According to Prof. J. M. Keynes, national income is determined at the level where
aggregate demand (i.e., aggregate expenditure) for consumption and investment goods (C
+ I) equals aggregate supply.
Keynes in his simple analysis of equilibrium in the goods market, he considers that
investment is determined by the rate of interest and marginal efficiency of capital and it is
independent of the level of national income.
According to Prof. Keynes, rate of interest is determined in the money market
equilibrium by the demand for money and the supply of money.
There is one flaw in this Keynesian model of money market equilibrium. In this model
whereas the changes in the rate of interest in the money market affect investment and
therefore the level of income and output in the goods market, there is seemingly no
inverse influence of changes in goods market (investment and income) on the money
market equilibrium.
Hicks, Hansen, Lerner and Johnson have put forward a complete and integrated model
based on the Keynesian framework where investment, national income, rate of interest,
demand for and supply of money are interrelated and mutually interdependent and can be
represented by the two curves called IS and LM curves.
The IS- LM model shows how the level of national income and rate of interest are jointly
determined by the simultaneous equilibrium in the two interdependent goods and money
markets.
By Goods Market, we mean all the buying and selling of goods and services.
By Money Market, we mean the interaction between demand for money and the supply
of money
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The IS curve seeks to find out the equilibrium level of national income as determined by
the equilibrium in goods market by a level of investment determined by a given rate of
interest.
The IS curve shows different equilibrium levels of national income with various rates of
interest.
The lower the rate of interest, higher will be the equilibrium level of income.
The IS curve is the locus of those combinations of rate of interest and the level of
national income at which goods market is in equilibrium.
Derivation of IS Curve:
The decrease in the rate of interest bring about to increase in the planned investment which
increases the aggregate demand (upward shift of aggregate demand) therefore leads to the
increase in the equilibrium level of national income. This makes the IS curve to slope downward.
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Shift in the IS Curve:
It is the autonomous expenditure which determines the position of the IS curve and
changes in the autonomous expenditure causes a shift in it.
By autonomous expenditure we mean the expenditure (investment expenditure,
government expenditure, consumption expenditure) which does not depend on the level
of income and the rate of interest.
Derivation of LM Curve:
We have derived the LM curve from a family of demand curves for money. As income
increases, money demand curve shifts outward and therefore the rate of interest which
equates supply of money with demand for money rises.
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LM curve slopes upward to the right. This is because with higher levels of income,
demand curve for money (Md) is higher and consequently the money market equilibrium
(that is, the equality of the given money supply with money demand curve occurs at a
higher rate of interest).
This means that rate of interest varies directly with income.
Factors that determine the position of LM curve: LM curve is drawn by keeping the stock
or money supply fixed. Therefore, when the money supply increases, given the money
demand function, it will lower the rate of interest at the given level of income. This is
because with income fixed, the rate of interest must fall so that demand for money for
speculative and transactions motive rises to become equal to the greater money supply.
This will cause the LM curve to shift outward to the right.
The other factor which causes a shift in the LM curve is the change in liquidity
preference for a given level of income.
If the liquidity preference function for a given level of income shifts upward, this, given
the stock of money, will lead to the rise in the rate of interest for a given level of income.
This will bring about a shift in the LM curve to the left.
If the money demand function (liquidity preference) for a given level of income declines,
it will lower the rate of interest for a given level of income and will therefore shift the
LM curve to the right.
The LM curve is a schedule that describes the combinations of rate of interest and level
of income at which money market is in equilibrium.
The LM curve slopes upward to the right.
The LM curve is flatter if the interest elasticity of demand for money is high. On the
contrary, the LM curve is steep if the interest elasticity demand for money is low.
79 | P a g e
The LM curve shifts to the right when the stock of money is increased and it shifts to the
left if the stock of money supply is reduced.
The LM curve shifts to the left if there is an increase in the money demand function
which raises the quantity of money demanded at the given interest rate and income level.
On the other hand, the LM curve shifts to the right if there is a decrease in the money
demand function which lowers the amount of money demanded at given levels of interest
rate and income.
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The Criticisms of the IS- LM Model:
1. It is based on the assumption that the rate of interest is quite flexible.
2. The model is based on the assumption that investment is interest- elastic that is,
investment varies with the rate of interest. If investment is interest – inelastic, then the IS-
LM model breaks down.
3. Don Patinkin and Milton Friedman have criticised by saying that the division of the
economy into two sectors- monetary and real is artificial and unrealistic. These sectors
are quite interwoven and act and react on each other.
4. Further, Patinkin has pointed out that the IS- LM model has ignored the possibility of
changes in the price level of commodities. According to him, the various economic
variables such as supply of money, propensity to consume or save, investment and the
demand for money not only influence the rate of interest and the level of national income
but also the prices of commodities and services.
C = a + bY (Consumption function)
I = Ia – dr (Investment function)
AD = C + I + G + NX
Where, AD = Aggregate demand,
C = Consumption expenditure,
A = Autonomous consumption,
B = Marginal propensity to consume (MPC),
Y = Income,
I = Investment expenditure,
Ia = Autonomous investment,
D = Sensitivity of investment to the change in rate of interest,
G = Government expenditure
NX = Net Exports
Y = AD = C(Y) + I(r) + G + NX
Or, Y = a + bY + Ia – dr + G + NX
Or, Y – bY = a + Ia – dr + G + NX
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Or, Y(1-b) = a + Ia – dr + G + NX
1 𝑑𝑟
Or, Y = (a + Ia + G + NX) -
1−𝑏 1−𝑏
The above equation describes IS curve. Terms in the brackets are all autonomous expenditure
and are independent of both income and rate of interest. If we denote all these autonomous
expenditures by Ā, then the above equation can be written as –
1 1
Y= (Ā) - . 𝑑𝑟
1−𝑏 1−𝑏
1
Or, Y = 1−𝑏 (Ā − 𝑑𝑟)
1
is the income multiplier and b is marginal propensity to consume. Given the value of
1−𝑏
autonomous expenditure, we can obtain value of Y at different rates of interest to draw an IS
curve. The value of autonomous expenditure (Ā) determines the intercept of the IS curve, d in the
term dr shows the sensitivity of investment to the changes in rate of interest and determines the
slope of IS curve. Since fall in investment rate increases investment spending, it will raise
aggregate demand and thus the equilibrium level of income. The slope of the IS curve depends
on the size of the income multiplier.
C = 10 + 0.5Y;
Solution: IS curve describes the equation for product market equilibrium at various
combinations of level of income and rate of interest.
Y = AD = C + I
½ Y = 200 – 20r
Y = 400 – 40r.
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Problem 2: The following equations describe an economy
C = 100 + 0.75Yd
I = 50 – 25r
T = G = 50
Solution: Y = C + I + G
I = 50 – 25r; G = T = 50
Hence, Y = C + I + G
Y = 650 – 100r
The derivation of Equation for LM Curve: LM curve is a curve that shows combinations of
interest rates and levels of income at which money market is in equilibrium. That means demand
for money is equal to supply of money. We explain the derivation of LM curve in two steps.
First, we show how money demand depends on interest rate and level of income. It is important
to note that in their demand for money people care more about the purchasing power of money,
that, people’s demand is for real money balances rather than nominal money balances. Real
money balances are given by M/P where M stands for nominal money demand and P for price
level.
The demand for real money balances depends on the level of real income and interest rate. Thus
Md = L(Y, r). Demand for real money balances increases with the rise in level of income and
decreases with rise in rate of interest. Let us assume that money demand function is linear. Then
83 | P a g e
Parameter k represents how much demand for real money balances increases when level of
income rises. Parameter h shows how much demand for real money balances decreases when
rate of interest rises. The equilibrium in the money market is established where demand for real
money balances equals supply of real money balances and is given by
𝑀
= kY – hr
𝑃
Money supply (M) is set by the central bank of a country and we assume it to remain constant for
a period. We also assume the price level (P) to remain constant.
The above equation describes the equation for LM curve. This equation gives us the equilibrium
rate of interest for any given value of level of income (Y) and real money balances. Thus LM
curve describes money market equilibrium for different values of income and rate of interest,
given a fixed value of real money balances (M/P), we obtain a rate of interest for different values
of income.
In the above equation for LM curve, the coefficient (k) of income (Y) is positive, LM curve will
slope upward. That is, higher income requires higher interest rate for money market to be in
equilibrium, given the supply of real money balances. Since the coefficient of real money
balances is negative, the expansion in real money balances will cause a shift in the LM curve to
be right, and decrease in the real money balances will shift LM curve to the left.
Form the coefficient of income k/h, we can know whether LM curve is steep or flat. If demand
for money is not much sensitive to level of income, then k will be small. Therefore, in case of
small k (that is, low sensitivity of interest with respect to change in income), small change in
interest rate is required to offset a small increase in money demand caused by a given increase in
income.
Problem 3: Given the following data about the monetary sector of the economy:
Md = 0.4Y – 80r
Ms = 1200 million
Where, Md is demand for money, Y is the level of income, r is the rate of interest and Ms
is the supply of money.
Derive the equation for LM curve and give the economic interpretation of this curve.
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Md = Ms
1
Thus we get the following LM curve: r = Y – 15
200
LM curve means what would be rate of interest when money market is in equilibrium,
given the level of income. Thus, if level of national income is SR 4000 million, then
using LM equation, we have:
1
r= × 4000 – 15
200
r = 20 – 15 = 5%
Thus, at income of SR 4000 million, rate of interest will be 5 per cent when money
market is in equilibrium.
Now, if level of income is SR 4400 million, equilibrium rate of interest will be:
1
r= Y - 15
200
1
r= × 4400 – 15
200
r = 22 – 15 = 7%
Thus, at income of SR 4400 million, rate of interest will be 7 per cent when money
market is in equilibrium.
Problem 4: The following data is given for the monetary sector of the economy:
Transaction demand for money, Mt = 0.5Y, Speculative demand for money, Msp = 105 – 1500r
and money supply Ms = 150. Derive LM equation from the data.
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IS- LM Model: Algebraic Analysis
(Joint Equilibrium of Income and Interest Rate)
The intersection of IS and LM curves determines joint equilibrium of income and interest rate.
We can obtain the equilibrium values by using the equations of IS and LM curves:
1
Equation for IS curve: Y = 1−𝑏 (Ā − 𝑑𝑟)
1 𝑀
Equation for LM curve: r = (kY – )
ℎ 𝑃
To find equilibrium values we substitute the interest rate from the LM equation into the IS
equation. By doing so, we have
1 1 𝑀
Y = 1−𝑏 [Ā − 𝑑( ℎ (𝑘𝑌 – 𝑃 )]
1 𝑑 𝑀
Y = 1−𝑏 [Ā − ℎ (𝑘𝑌 – 𝑃 )]
1 𝑑 𝑑 𝑀
Y = 1−𝑏 [Ā − ℎ (𝑘𝑌) + ℎ ( 𝑃 )]
The equation shows that the equilibrium level of income depends on exogenously given
autonomous variables (Ā) such as autonomous consumption, autonomous investment,
𝑀
government expenditure on goods and services, and the real money supply ( ) and further on
𝑃
1
the size of multiplier (1−𝑏). It is noticed that higher the autonomous expenditure, the higher the
level of equilibrium income and the greater the real money supply, the higher the level of
national income.
C = 100 + 0.8Y
S = -100 + 0.2Y
I = 120 – 5r
Ms = 120
Md = 0.2Y – 5r
Find out (1) IS equation, (2) LM equation, (3) equilibrium level of income and interest rate.
86 | P a g e
Solution:
1
(1) IS curve: Y = 1−𝑏 (Ā − 𝑑𝑟)
1
Y = 1−𝑏 [(𝑎 + 𝐼𝑎) − 𝑑𝑟)]
1
= 0.2 (220 − 5𝑟)
= 5(220 − 5𝑟)
(2) LM curve:
M d = Ms
0.2Y – 5r = 120
5r = 0.2Y – 120
0.2
r= Y – 24
5
𝟎.𝟐
Hence, LM equation: r = Y – 24
𝟓
Y = 1100 – 25r
0.2
Y = 1100 – 25( Y – 24)
5
Y = 1100 – Y + 600
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2Y = 1700
Y = 850
Thus the equilibrium level of income is 850. To obtain the equilibrium rate of interest we
substitute the value of Y in LM equation and we get
0.2
r= Y – 24
5
0.2
r= × 850 – 24
5
r = 34 – 24 = 10
C = 100 + 0.8Yd
I = 50 – 25r
G = T = 50
𝑀′
= 200
𝑃
Md = Y – 25r
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Review Questions
Multiple Choice Questions:
1. Who developed the concept of IS- LM model?
a. Hicks and Hansen
b. J. M. Keynes
c. Adam Smith
d. None of the above.
4. IS curve slopes—
a. upward
b. downward
c. horizontal
d. vertical
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d. both a & b
8. LM curve slopes—
a. downward to the right
b. upward to the right
c. vertical
d. horizontal.
10. The LM curve shifts to the right when the stock of money is-
a. decreased
b. increased
c. constant
d. none of the above.
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11. Which of the following is the correct definition of the IS curve?
a. The IS curve represents the single level of output where financial markets are in
equilibrium.
b. The IS curve represents the combinations of output and the interest rate where the money
market is in equilibrium.
c. The IS curve represents the single level of output where the goods market is in
equilibrium.
d. The IS curve represents the combinations of output and the interest rate where the goods
market is in equilibrium.
12. Suppose the economy is operating on the LM curve but not on the IS curve. Given this
information, we know that:
a. the money market and bond markets are in equilibrium and the goods market is not in
equilibrium.
b. the money, bond and goods markets are all in equilibrium.
c. neither the money, bond, nor goods markets are in equilibrium.
d. the goods market is in equilibrium and the money market is not in equilibrium.
13. Which of the following statements is consistent with a given (i.e., fixed) LM curve?
a. A reduction in the interest rate causes investment spending to increase.
b. A reduction in the interest rate causes money demand to decrease.
c. An increase in output causes an increase in demand for goods
d. An increase in output causes an increase in money demand.
14. A reduction in government spending will cause:
a. an upward shift in the LM curve.
b. a leftward shift in the IS curve.
c. a downward shift in the LM curve.
d. a rightward shift in the IS curve.
15. Suppose investment spending is NOT very sensitive to the interest rate. Given this
information, we know that:
a. the IS curve should be relatively steep.
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b. the IS curve should be relatively flat.
c. the LM curve should be relatively flat.
d. the LM curve should be relatively steep.
16. An increase in the aggregate price level, P, will most likely have which of the following
effects?
a. a rightward shift in the IS curve.
b. a leftward shift in the IS curve.
c. an upward shift in the LM curve.
d. a downward shift in the LM curve.
18. Suppose the current level of output and the interest rate are such that the economy is
operating on neither the IS nor LM curve. Which of the following is true for this
economy?
a. Production does not equal demand.
b. The quantity supplied of bonds does not equal the quantity demanded of bonds.
c. The money supply does not equal money demand.
d. Financial markets are not in equilibrium.
e. all of the above.
19. Suppose the economy is currently operating on both the LM curve and the IS curve.
Which of the following is true for this economy?
a. Financial markets are in equilibrium.
b. The quantity supplied of bonds equals the quantity demanded of bonds.
c. Production equals demand.
d. The money supply equals money demand.
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e. all of the above.
20. The IS curve will NOT shift when which of the following occurs?
a. a reduction in government spending.
b. a reduction in consumer confidence.
c. a reduction in the interest rate.
d. all of the above.
e. none of the above.
21. Based on our understanding of the IS-LM model that takes into account dynamics, we
know that a reduction in the money supply will cause:
a. a gradual increase in r and gradual reduction in Y.
b. an immediate increase in r and no initial change in Y.
c. an immediate drop in Y and immediate increase in r.
d. none of the above.
23. A reduction in consumer confidence will likely have which of the following effects?
a. a rightward shift in the IS curve.
b. a leftward shift in the IS curve.
c. an upward shift in the LM curve.
d. a downward shift in the LM curve.
24. For this question, assume that investment spending depends only on output and no
longer depends on the interest rate. Given this information, an increase in the money
supply:
a. will cause investment to increase.
b. will cause an increase in output and have no effect on the interest rate.
c. will cause a reduction in the interest rate.
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d. will cause investment to decrease.
e. will have no effect on output or the interest rate.
25. Which of the following statements is consistent with a given (i.e., fixed) IS curve?
a. An increase in government spending causes an increase in demand for goods.
b. A reduction in the interest rate causes investment spending to increase.
c. A reduction in the interest rate causes money demand to decrease.
d. A reduction in the interest rate causes an increase in the money supply.
e. An increase in taxes causes a reduction in demand for goods.
27. Which of the following is the definition for the real supply of money?
a. the stock of money measured in terms of goods, not dollars.
b. the stock of high powered money only.
c. the actual quantity of money, rather than the officially reported quantity.
d. the ratio of the real GDP to the nominal money supply.
e. the real value of currency in circulation only.
28. Which of the following is true for a given point on the LM curve?
a. The goods market is in equilibrium.
b. Production is equal to demand.
c. No inventory investment equals zero.
d. all of the above.
e. none of the above.
29. Based on our understanding of the IS-LM model that takes into account dynamics, we
know that a reduction in government spending will cause:
a. a gradual reduction in r and an immediate reduction in Y.
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b. an immediate reduction in r and no initial change in Y.
c. an immediate drop in Y and immediate increase in r.
d. a gradual reduction in r and gradual reduction in Y.
30. Assume that investment does NOT depend on the interest rate. A reduction in the
money supply will cause which of the following for this economy?
a. an increase in investment.
b. no change in the interest rate.
c. no change in output.
d. a reduction in investment.
Answer:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
a a b b d c b b a b
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
d a d b a c a e e c
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
b d b c b a a e d c
Write down T for true statement and F for false statement for the following
statements:-
1. Prof. J. M. Keynes developed the concept of IS- LM model in economics.
2. According to Prof. J. M. Keynes, national income is determined at the level where aggregate
demand equals aggregate supply.
3. According to Prof. Keynes, rate of interest is determined in the money market equilibrium by
the demand for money and the supply of money.
4. By goods market, we mean the interaction between demand for money and the supply of
money.
6. When the rate of interest falls the level of investment increases and vice versa.
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7. The increase in investment demand will bring about increase in aggregate demand which in
turn will raise the equilibrium level of income.
8. The LM curve seeks to find out the equilibrium level of national income as determined by the
equilibrium in goods market by a level of investment determined by a given rate of interest.
9. The IS curve shows different equilibrium levels of national income with various rates of
interest.
10. The lower the rate of interest, lower will be the equilibrium level of income.
11. The LM curve is the locus of those combinations of rate of interest and the level of national
income at which goods market is in equilibrium.
12. It is the autonomous expenditure which determines the position of the IS curve and changes
in the autonomous expenditure causes a shift in it.
13. The IS curve can be derived from the Keynesian theory from its analysis of money market
equilibrium.
14. According to Keynes, demand for money to hold depends on transactions motive and
speculative motive.
15. The LM curve relates the level of income with the rate of interest which is determined by
money- market equilibrium corresponding to different levels of demand for money.
16. The IS curve tells what the various rates of interest will be (given the quantity of money and
the family of demand curves for money) at different levels of income.
17. The LM curve slopes upward to the right.
18. The IS curve slopes upward to the right.
19. The LM curve is flatter if the interest elasticity of demand for money is high.
20. The LM curve is steep if the interest elasticity demand for money is low.
21. The LM curve shifts to the right when the stock of money is decreased.
22. The LM curve shifts to the right when the stock of money is increased.
23. The LM curve shifts to the right if there is a decrease in the money demand function.
24. The LM curve shifts to the left if there is an increase in the money demand function.
25. The IS- LM curves relate the two variables: income and the rate of interest.
Answer:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
F T T F F T T F T F
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11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
F T F T T F T F T T
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
F T T T T - - - - -
Match - I A B C D
Match - II 1 2 3 4
Match - I Match- II
A. IS curve shows 1. goods market equilibrium.
B. LM curve shows 2. money market equilibrium.
C. IS curve shifts to the right 3. when autonomous expenditure increases.
D. IS curve shifts to the left 4. when autonomous expenditure decreases.
Match - I A B C D
Match - II 1 2 3 4
By Money Market, we mean the interaction between demand for money and the supply of
money.
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4. What is IS (Investment- Saving) curve?
The IS curve shows different equilibrium levels of national income with various rates of interest.
It is the locus of those combinations of rate of interest and the level of national income at which
goods market is in equilibrium. IS curve always slopes downward to the right (negative slope).
7. What are the factors on which the steepness of the IS curve depends on?
There are two factors on which the steepness of the IS curve depends on:-
1. the elasticity of investment demand curve; and
2. the size of the multiplier.
8. What are the factors which determine the position/ shift in the IS curve?
It is the autonomous expenditure which determines the position of the IS curve and changes in
the autonomous expenditure causes a shift in it.
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9. What do you mean by autonomous expenditure?
By autonomous expenditure we mean the expenditure (investment expenditure, government
expenditure, consumption expenditure) which does not depend on the level of income and the
rate of interest.
We have derived the LM curve from a family of demand curves for money. As income increases,
money demand curve shifts outward and therefore the rate of interest which equates supply of
money with demand for money rises.
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15. Problem: The following equations describe an economy:
C = 10 + 0.5Y;
I = 190 – 20r. Derive the equation for IS curve.
Solution: IS curve describes the equation for product market equilibrium at various
combinations of level of income and rate of interest.
Y = AD = C + I
Y = 10 + 0.5Y + 190 – 20r
Y – 0.5Y = 200 – 20r
Y (1- 0.5) = 200 – 20r
½ Y = 200 – 20r
Y = 400 – 40r.
Thus IS curve is: Y = 400 – 40r.
16 Problem: The following equations describe an economy
C = 100 + 0.75Yd
I = 50 – 25r
T = G = 50
Where C is aggregate consumption, Yd is disposable income, I is aggregate investment. T is
taxes, G is government purchases and r is the rate of interest. Derive the IS curve for the
economy.
Solution: Y = C + I + G
Now, C = 100 + 0.75Yd = 100 + 0.75 (Y- T) = 100 + 0.75 (Y – 50)
I = 50 – 25r; G = T = 50
Hence, Y = C + I + G
Y = 100 + 0.75 (Y – 50) + 50 – 25r + 50
Y = 200 + 0.75Y – 37.5 – 25r
Y – 0.75Y = 162.5 – 25r
0.25Y = 162.5 – 25r
Y = 650 – 100r
Thus, IS equation will be: Y = 650 – 100r
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17. Problem: Given the following data about the monetary sector of the economy:
Md = 0.4Y – 80r
Ms = 1200 million
Where, Md is demand for money, Y is the level of income, r is the rate of interest and Ms
is the supply of money.
Derive the equation for LM curve and give the economic interpretation of this curve.
Solution: For money market to be in equilibrium,
Md = Ms
0.4Y – 80r = 1200
80r = 0.4Y – 1200
1
r = 200Y - 15
1
Thus we get the following LM curve: r = 200Y – 15
LM curve means what would be rate of interest when money market is in equilibrium,
given the level of income. Thus, if level of national income is SR 4000 million, then
using LM equation, we have:
1
r = 200× 4000 – 15
r = 20 – 15 = 5%
Thus, at income of SR 4000 million, rate of interest will be 5 per cent when money
market is in equilibrium.
Now, if level of income is SR 4400 million, equilibrium rate of interest will be:
1
r = 200Y - 15
1
r = 200× 4400 – 15
r = 22 – 15 = 7%
Thus, at income of SR 4400 million, rate of interest will be 7 per cent when money
market is in equilibrium.
18. Problem: The following data is given for the monetary sector of the economy:
Transaction demand for money, Mt = 0.5Y, Speculative demand for money, Msp = 105 – 1500r
and money supply Ms = 150. Derive LM equation from the data.
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19. Problem: For an economy the following functions have been given:
C = 100 + 0.8Y
S = -100 + 0.2Y
I = 120 – 5r
Ms = 120
Md = 0.2Y – 5r
Find out (1) IS equation, (2) LM equation, (3) equilibrium level of income and interest rate.
Solution:
1
(1) IS curve: Y = 1−𝑏 (Ā − 𝑑𝑟)
1
Y = 1−𝑏 [(𝑎 + 𝐼𝑎) − 𝑑𝑟)]
= 5(220 − 5𝑟)
𝟎.𝟐
Hence, LM equation: r = Y – 24
𝟓
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Y = 1100 – 25r
0.2
Y = 1100 – 25( 5 Y – 24)
0.2
r= × 850 – 24
5
r = 34 – 24 = 10
Thus equilibrium rate of interest is 10 per cent.
20. Problem: Consider the following economy:
C = 100 + 0.8Yd
I = 50 – 25r
G = T = 50
𝑀′
= 200
𝑃
Md = Y – 25r
1. Calculate the IS and LM curves.
2. Calculate the equilibrium levels of output (national income) and interest.
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Chapter- 6
Investment, Multiplier, Accelerator & Business Cycle
Investment: Investment means the purchase of new machines, new buildings and other capital
goods that add to the existing stocks of capital.
Gross Investment: The total purchase of new capital goods during a year is called gross
investment.
Net Investment: Gross investment less replacement or depreciation is called net investment.
Components of Investment:
Private investment: it refers to the expenditure incurred by the private entrepreneurs on the
purchase of capital goods like plant and machinery, or construction of houses, factories, offices,
shops, etc.
Motivations for investment: Expected profitability is the main motive for investment in private
sector of the economy. In public sector, these decisions are motivated by profitability in terms of
surplus of social benefits over social costs.
Induced investment: it takes place when the level of income and demand in the economy goes
up.
Autonomous investment: it is that kind of investment which is not affected by the changes in
income, rate of interest or rate of profit. This does not depend upon the growth of sales.
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Prospective Income: it is defined as expected revenues from the use of the capital asset minus
variable cost.
Supply Price: it refers to the cost of the asset. Suppose the machine costs SR 3000. This will be
known as the supply price of the asset. Supply price is the current cost of the asset.
Example: if you are given an option to accept SR 100 now or SR 100 five years hence, you will
definitely like to have SR 100 now rather than five years afterwards. If you are to be asked to
wait for five years, you will demand more than SR 100. Similarly, every person will evaluate SR
100 in present more than SR 100 in future. The present value of SR 100 in future will be less.
For t yearns, at a rate of interest of r per cent, the present value is calculated by this formula:
𝐴
P=
(1+𝑟)𝑡
Example: on the basis of the above formula, the present value of the expected returns of a
machine which costs SR 3,000 and which is expected to last for five years will be calculated as
follows:
𝐴 𝐴 𝐴 𝐴 𝐴
Present value of prospective yield = + + + +
(1+𝑟)𝑡 (1+𝑟)𝑡 (1+𝑟)𝑡 (1+𝑟)𝑡 (1+𝑟)𝑡
For calculation of Marginal Efficiency of Capital (MEC), the formula will be:
𝑅1 𝑅2 𝑅3 𝑅4 𝑅𝑡
Cr = 1
+ 2
+ 3
+ 4
…….+
(1+𝑟) (1+𝑟) (1+𝑟) (1+𝑟) (1+𝑟)𝑡
Where, Cr = replacement cost or supply price of an asset; R1, R2, R2,….Rt are the prospective
annual yields for the periods 1, 2, 3, ….t, respectively and r is the rate of discount.
Marginal Efficiency of Capital (MEC): The rate of discount (r) which equalizes the present
value of the prospective yield of an asset with its supply price is known as marginal efficiency of
capital (MEC).
With increase in investment, MEC falls. This is due to the following reasons:
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1. The marginal revenue productivity of capital falls as more and more capital is employed;
2. The supply price of capital assets increases when more of them are demanded.
3. The increased output of the goods being produced with the help of capital will tend to
drive down their prices.
Therefore, at higher rate of interest, less capital investment will take place. More private
investment will take place at a lower rate of interest.
Rate of Interest: It refers to the cost of funds required to finance the project.
Criteria for Investment: Investors take decision on comparing MEC to rate of interest:
1. If the MEC > the rate of interest, the investors will be inclined to carry out investment;
2. If the MEC < the rate of interest, the investors will not be inclined to carry out
investment; and
3. If the MEC = the rate of interest, the investors will be neutral to carry out investment;
Question: The supply price of a machine is SR 110 and its life is two years. In each year of its
life it yields SR 72. Calculate its marginal efficiency of capital (MEC).
Solution: the marginal efficiency of capital can be found by equating the supply price (SR 110)
and present value of expected yields (SR 72 in each year) with the help of this formula:
𝑅1 𝑅2
Cr =
(1+𝑟)1
+ (1+𝑟)2
72 72
110 =
(1+𝑟)1
+ (1+𝑟)2
110(1+r)2 = 72 + 72 + 72r
110r2 + 148r – 34 = 0
Which gives,
r = 0.2 = 20%
Given the value of r as 20%, we can calculate the prospective yield per annum as follow:
𝑅1 72 72
I year: SR
(1+𝑟)1
= (1+0.20)1 = = SR 60
1.20
𝑅2 72 72
II year: SR
(1+𝑟)𝑡
= (1+0.20)2
= (1.2)2 = SR 50
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The rate of discount is 20%. The sum of discounted value of prospective annual yield (SR 60 +
SR 50 = SR 110) equals the supply price of capital asset (SR 110). Investment in the asset is
profitable if the cost of borrowing is less than 20%. In other words, if the rate of discount (MEC)
exceeds the rate of interest (r), it will be desirable to invest.
Multiplier
Meaning: Multiplier shows the relationship between change in investment and the resulting
change in income.
An increase in investment in an economy leads to an increase in income which is more than the
proportionate increase in investment.
The multiplier coefficient (K) measures the change in income due to change in investment. In
∆𝑌 1 1
other words, K = = =
∆𝐼 1−𝑀𝑃𝐶 𝑀𝑃𝑆
Or, Y = C + S = C + I (because S= I)
So,
∆𝑌 = ∆𝐶 + ∆𝐼
∆𝐶 ∆𝐼
1= +
∆𝑌 ∆𝑌
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∆𝐶 ∆𝐼
1- =
∆𝑌 ∆𝑌
∆𝑌 1
= ∆𝐶
∆𝐼 1−
∆𝑌
1 1
K= =
1 −MPC MPS
Question: What will be the value of multiplier if the marginal propensity to save is 0.4?
1 1
Solution: Multiplier, K = = = 2.5
MPS 0.4
Question: Given MPC = 0.6, calculate the value of ∆𝑌, ∆𝐶 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ∆𝑆 when investment increases
by SR 2000 million.
Round ∆𝑰 ∆𝒀 ∆𝑪 ∆𝑺
1 2000 2000 1200 800
2 1200 720 480
3 720 432 288
4 432 259.2 172.8
Last ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓
Total 5000 3000 2000
∆𝐼 2000
∆𝑌 = 1 −MPC = = 5000
1−0.6
Question: An additional investment of SR 1000 million in the Saudi economy creates how much
additional income, if MPC = (i) 1, (ii) 0, (iii) 0.5?
Question: An additional investment of SR 20,000 million in the Saudi economy will create how
much additional income, if MPS = (i) 1, (ii) 2, (iii) 3?
Question: If the Saudi economy plans to generate SR 1000 million of additional income, how
much additional investment will be required if MPS = (i) 0.5, (ii) 0.4?
Question: If the Saudi economy plans to generate SR 200 million of additional income, how
much additional investment will be required if MPC = (i) 0.3, (ii) 0.4?
Question: Find the value of MPC and MPS if an additional investment of SR 100 million
generated an additional income of SR 500 million.
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Accelerator
The multiplier describes the relationship between investment and income, i.e., the effect of
investment on income.
The multiplier concept is concerned with original investment as a stimulus to consumption and
thereby to income and employment. But in this concept, we are not concerned about the effect
of income on investment. This effect is covered by the ‘accelerator’.
The term ‘accelerator’ is associated with the name of J.M. Clark in the year 1914. It has been
proved a powerful tool of economic analysis since then.
Keynes, astonishingly, has altogether ignored this concept. That is why, the concept of
accelerator is not considered the part of Keynesian theory.
According to the principle of accelerator, when income increases, people’s spending power
increases; their consumption increases and consequently the demand for consumer goods
increases. In order to meet this enhanced demand, investment must increase to raise the
productive capacity of the community. Initially, however, the increased demand will be met by
over-working the existing plants and machinery. All this leads to increase in profits which will
induce entrepreneurs to expand their plants by increasing their investments.
1. Under the principle of accelerator, it is assumed that there is no excess capacity existing
in the consumer goods industries. No machines are lying idle and shift working is not
possible.
2. In capital goods industries, it has been assumed that there is an existence of surplus
capacity. If there is no excess capacity in capital goods industries, increased demand for
machines could not lead to increase in the supply of machines.
3. Output is flexible. The machine-making industry or capital goods industry can increase
its output whenever desired.
4. The size of the accelerator does not remain constant over time. It value will be affected
by the businessmen’s calculations regarding the profitability of installing new plants to
make more machines on the basis of their probable working life.
5. The demand for machines will remain stable in the future, although the increase in
demand has suddenly cropped up.
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Trade / Business Cycle
Changes in aggregate demand bring about changes in the level of output, employment, income
and price. These changes are generally cyclical in nature and follow a cycle of four different
stages:
1. Prosperity or boom;
2. Recession;
3. Depression or slump; and
4. Recovery.
The cyclical nature of economic activity is known as a trade cycle or business cycle.
Recession: during the boom period, the economy may get over- heated and the monetary
authorities, the financial institutions and the business itself may begin to play cautious. There
may be cuts in investment, resulting in cuts in employment, fall in incomes, decline in
purchasing power and demand. Prices may begin to fall.
Depression or slump or trough: if the effective corrective measures cannot be undertaken, the
economy may find itself go into depression. It is a stage when the business confidence is at its
lowest. Investment, employment, output, income and prices touch the bottom.
Recovery or expansion: as the economy moves out of depression, it enters the phase of
recovery. Sustained recovery will find the level of investment, employment, output, income and
prices moving upwards. This may finally results in boom conditions in the economy.
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Review Questions
Multiple Choice Questions:
1. Investment means the purchase of-
A. Old machines, old buildings and other capital goods
B. New machines, new buildings and other capital goods that add to the existing
stocks of capital.
C. Both
D. None of the above.
2. Net investment is equal to-
A. Gross investment plus replacement or depreciation;
B. Gross investment less replacement or depreciation;
C. Gross investment multiply by replacement or depreciation;
D. None of the above.
3. Which is/are the determinant/s of private investment-
A. Prospective income from the capital asset;
B. Supply price of the capital asset;
C. The rate of interest;
D. All of the above.
4. Expected revenues from the use of the capital asset minus variable cost is called-
A. Prospective income
B. Supply price
C. Prospective yield
D. None of the above.
5. The future return on the asset is called-
A. Prospective income
B. Supply price
C. Prospective yield
D. None of the above.
6. After t years, at a rate of interest of r per cent, the present value will be-
𝑃
A. A =
(1+𝑟)𝑡
𝐴
B. P =
(1+𝑟)𝑡
𝐴
C. P =
(1−𝑟)𝑡
(1+𝑟)𝑡
D. P =
𝐴
7. What will be the future value of SR 100 at 5 % rate of interest after 2 years?
A. SR 110.00;
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B. SR 110.25;
C. SR 90.00;
D. None of the above.
8. What is the present value of SR 100 at 5 % rate of interest in two year?
A. SR 110.00;
B. SR 110.25;
C. SR 90.70;
D. SR 90.00.
9. The rate of discount (r) which equalizes the present value of the prospective yield of an
asset with its supply price is known as-
A. Prospective income
B. Supply price
C. Prospective yield
D. Marginal Efficiency of Capital (MEC).
10. With increase in investment, MEC-
A. Increases;
B. Decreases;
C. Constant;
D. All of the above
11. The change in income due to change in investment is known as-
A. Consumption;
B. Multiplier;
C. Accelerator;
D. IS curve
12. Higher the value of MPC,
A. Lower will be the value of multiplier;
B. Higher will be the value of multiplier;
C. No effect will be on multiplier;
D. All is possible.
13. Higher the value of MPS,
A. Lower will be the value of multiplier;
B. Higher will be the value of multiplier;
C. No effect will be on multiplier;
D. All is possible.
14. If the marginal propensity to consume is 0.8 (80 %) then the multiplier will be-
A. 2.5;
B. 5.0;
C. 0.2;
D. None of the above.
15. If the marginal propensity to save is 0.2 then the multiplier will be-
A. 2.5;
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B. 5.0;
C. 0.2;
D. None of the above.
16. If the Saudi economy plans to generate SR 100 billion of additional income, how much
additional investment will be required when marginal propensity to consume (mpc) is
equal to 80 per cent of disposable income?
A. SR 100 billion;
B. SR 50 billion;
C. SR 20 billion;
D. SR 40 billion.
17. An additional investment of SR 50 billion in the Saudi economy creates how much
additional income if the marginal propensity to consume (mpc) is equal to 0.5?
A. SR 25 billion;
B. SR 50 billion;
C. SR 100 billion;
D. SR 150 billion.
18. The change in investment due to change in income is known as-
A. Consumption;
B. Multiplier;
C. Accelerator;
D. IS curve
19. The concepts of investment multiplier and accelerator are given by-
A. Prof. J. M. Keynes and Prof. J. M. Clark respectively;
B. Prof. R. H. Kahn and Prof. J. M. Keynes respectively;
C. Prof. J. M. Keynes has given these two concepts;
D. None of the above.
20. In trade/ business cycle, the cycles follow these sequence-
A. Prosperity or boom → recession → depression or slump and then → Recovery;
B. Prosperity or boom → depression or slump → recession and then → Recovery.
C. Recession → depression or slump → Recovery and then → Prosperity or boom
D. Recovery → recession → depression or slump and then → Prosperity or boom.
Answer:
Ques. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Ans. B B D A C B B C D B
Ques. 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Ans. B B A B B C C C A A
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Write T for true and F for false statement given below:
1. Investment means the purchase of new machines, new buildings and other capital goods
that add to the existing stocks of capital.
2. Expected profitability is the main motive for investment in private sector of the economy.
3. In public sector, these decisions are motivated by profitability in terms of surplus of
social benefits over social costs.
4. If the MEC < the rate of interest, the investors will be inclined to carry out investment.
5. Accelerator shows the relationship between change in investment and the resulting
change in income.
6. Multiplier shows the relationship between change in investment and the resulting change
in income.
7. Accelerator shows the relationship between changes in investment due to change in
income.
8. The multiplier coefficient (K) measures the change in income due to change in
investment.
∆𝑌 1 1
9. K = = =
∆𝐼 1−𝑀𝑃𝐶 𝑀𝑃𝑆
10. Higher the value of MPC, lower will be the value of multiplier.
11. Higher the value of MPS, lower will be the value of multiplier.
12. Prof. R.H. Kahn has developed the concept of investment multiplier.
13. Prof. J.M. Keynes has developed the concept of accelerator.
14. The sequence of business or trade cycles are prosperity, recession, depression and then
recovery.
15. The sequence of business or trade cycles are recovery, depression, recession, and then
prosperity.
Answer:
Ques. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Ans. T T T F F T T T T F T F F T F
Matching Test:
Match- I Match- II
1. If the MEC > the rate of interest, A. Investment should be done.
2. If the MEC < the rate of interest, B. Investment should not be done.
3. If the MEC = the rate of interest, C. Investors will be neutral.
Match- I 1 2 3
Match- II A B C
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Questions:
1. Define- investment, gross investment and net investment, autonomous investment
and induced investment.
Investment: Investment means the purchase of new machines, new buildings and other
capital goods that add to the existing stocks of capital.
Gross Investment: The total purchase of new capital goods during a year is called gross
investment.
Induced investment: it takes place when the level of income and demand in the
economy goes up.
Marginal Efficiency of Capital (MEC): The rate of discount (r) which equalizes the
present value of the prospective yield of an asset with its supply price is known as
marginal efficiency of capital (MEC). With increase in investment, MEC falls.
5. What are the criteria on the basis of which investors take decision to invest?
Criteria for Investment: Investors take decision on comparing MEC to rate of interest:
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If the MEC > the rate of interest, the investors will be inclined to carry out
investment;
If the MEC < the rate of interest, the investors will not be inclined to carry out
investment; and
If the MEC = the rate of interest, the investors will be neutral to carry out
investment.
6. Problem: The supply price of a machine is SR 110 and its life is two years. In each
year of its life it yields SR 72. Calculate its marginal efficiency of capital (MEC).
Solution: the marginal efficiency of capital can be found by equating the supply price
(SR 110) and present value of expected yields (SR 72 in each year) with the help of this
formula:
𝑅1 𝑅2
Cr =
(1+𝑟)1
+ (1+𝑟)2
72 72
110 =
(1+𝑟)1
+ (1+𝑟)2
110(1+r)2 = 72 + 72 + 72r
110r2 + 148r – 34 = 0
Which gives,
r = 0.2 = 20%
Given the value of r as 20%, we can calculate the prospective yield per annum as follow:
𝑅1 72 72
I year: SR
(1+𝑟)1
= (1+0.20)1 = = SR 60
1.20
𝑅2 72 72
II year: SR
(1+𝑟)𝑡
= (1+0.20)2
= (1.2)2 = SR 50
The rate of discount is 20%. The sum of discounted value of prospective annual yield (SR
60 + SR 50 = SR 110) equals the supply price of capital asset (SR 110). Investment in the
asset is profitable if the cost of borrowing is less than 20%. In other words, if the rate of
discount (MEC) exceeds the rate of interest (r), it will be desirable to invest.
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7. What is multiplier?
Multiplier shows the relationship between change in investment and the resulting change
in income.
An increase in investment in an economy leads to an increase in income which is more
than the proportionate increase in investment.
The multiplier coefficient (K) measures the change in income due to change in
∆𝑌 1 1
investment. In other words, K = = =
∆𝐼 1−𝑀𝑃𝐶 𝑀𝑃𝑆
Higher the value of MPC, higher will be the value of multiplier.
Higher the value of MPS, lower will be the value of multiplier.
10. Problem: If the Saudi economy plans to generate SR 1000 million of additional income,
how much additional investment will be required if MPS = (i) 0.5, (ii) 0.4?
11. Problem: If the Saudi economy plans to generate SR 200 million of additional income,
how much additional investment will be required if MPC = (i) 0.3, (ii) 0.4?
12. Problem: Find the value of MPC and MPS if an additional investment of SR 100 million
generated an additional income of SR 500 million.
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15. What are the four cycles of business/ trade cycles?
I. Prosperity or boom or peak: it is a phase of economic activity characterized by
rising demand, rising prices, rising investment, rising employment, rising
incomes, rising purchasing power and hence rising demand and so on. The
investors, therefore, voluntarily undertake risks and go in for investment, this
further fuels boom conditions through the working of the multiplier effect.
II. Recession: during the boom period, the economy may get over- heated and the
monetary authorities, the financial institutions and the business itself may begin to
play cautious. There may be cuts in investment, resulting in cuts in employment,
fall in incomes, decline in purchasing power and demand. Prices may begin to
fall.
III. Depression or slump or trough: if the effective corrective measures cannot be
undertaken, the economy may find itself go into depression. It is a stage when the
business confidence is at its lowest. Investment, employment, output, income and
prices touch the bottom.
IV. Recovery or expansion: as the economy moves out of depression, it enters the
phase of recovery. Sustained recovery will find the level of investment,
employment, output, income and prices moving upwards. This may finally results
in boom conditions in the economy.
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7. Government Budget
Points to be remembered:
Budget: An annual statement of the revenue and expenditure by the government.
Revenue Receipts: Those inflows of money to the government account against which no
liability of repayment is created.
Capital Receipts: Those inflows of money to the government against which a liability of
repayment devolves upon the government.
Revenue Budget: A statement relating to the revenue expenditure and revenue receipts of
the government.
Capital Budget: A statement relating to the capital receipts and capital expenditure of the
government.
Surplus Budget: A budget in which the receipts of the government exceed its
expenditure.
Deficit Budget: A budget in which the receipts of the government fall short of its
expenditure.
Balanced Budget: A budget in which the receipts of the government are matched by its
expenditure.
Budget
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Revenue budget:
The revenue budget contains details relating to the current revenues and the current expenditure
of the government.
Revenue Receipts: It is government income through tax revenue (direct and indirect
taxes) and non- tax revenue (interest receipts, dividends and profits, external grants, etc).
Revenue receipts are also known as current revenues.
Revenue Expenditure: The government expenditure which meets the consumption
needs of the government is called revenue expenditure. The purpose of this expenditure is
not to build up any assets in the economy. This type of expenditure is necessary to keep
the government machinery running and to enable the government meet its liabilities. It is
also known as current expenditure of the government.
The overall expenditure of the government can also be classified in two groups:
Capital budget:
Capital budget contains details relating to the capital receipts and capital expenditure of the
government.
Capital Receipts: the government’s capital receipts refer to all those sources of inflows to the
government account which have any one of the following features:
Capital Expenditure: expenditure incurred by the government on such items as have a life of
more than one year is called capital expenditure. This type of expenditure adds to the capital
stock of the economy.
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The sum total of the revenue receipts and the capital receipts constitutes the total receipts of the
government.
The sum total of the revenue expenditure and capital expenditure constitutes the total
expenditure of the government.
Overall Budget:
The overall budget of the government comprises all the receipts and all the expenditure of the
government.
A. Revenue Receipts
A 1 Tax Revenue
a. Corporation tax
b. Income tax
c. Custom duty
d. Excise duty
a. Interest receipts
b. Dividend and profits
c. External grants
B. Capital Receipts
a. Recoveries of loans
b. Market borrowings and other loans
c. External assistance
d. Disinvestment of PSU equity
C. Overall Receipts (= A + B)
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b. Defence
c. Subsidies
d. Economic, social and other services
I B. Capital Expenditure
a. Defence capital
b. Non- plan capital outlay
c. Loans to:
i. Public enterprises,
ii. States, and
iii. Foreign Governments.
II A. Revenue Expenditure
a. Central plan
b. Central assistance to states
II B. Capital Expenditure
a. Central plan
b. Central assistance to states
Balanced budget: If the receipts of the government are equal to its expenditure, it is
called balanced budget. It will have a neutral effect on the level of economic activity. It
will neither have an expansionary effect nor contractionary effect on the economy.
Deficit budget: If the receipts of the government are less than its expenditure, then the
budget is called deficit budget. It implies that the government is pumping in more money
in the economy. It has an expansionary effect and the level of economic activities rise.
Government of developing countries always plan for a deficit budget.
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Different Measures of Deficits:
Revenue Deficit: When revenue expenditure of the government is greater than the
revenue receipts, it is called revenue deficit. It is financed by drawing upon the capital
budget.
Budgetary deficit: When overall expenditure of the government is greater than the
overall receipts, it is called budgetary deficit. It is financed by printing of new currency
notes by the government.
Fiscal deficit: It is the excess of overall expenditure over the sum of revenue receipts,
and recoveries of loans. It is financed by loans and borrowings and printing of new
currency notes.
Monetized deficit: That part of the fiscal deficit which is financed by printing of new
currency notes is called monetized deficit.
Primary deficit: When interest payment is deducted from fiscal deficit, it is called
primary deficit.
Objectives of budget:
To promote economic growth;
To promote balanced regional development;
To reduce inequalities in the distribution of income and wealth;
To promote saving and investment in the economy;
To promote full employment and price stability.
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Review Questions
Multiple Choice Questions:
1. An annual statement of the revenue and expenditure by the government is known as-
A. Revenue budget;
B. Budget;
C. Capital budget;
D. None of these.
2. Those inflows of money to the government account against which no liability of
repayment is created, is called-
A. Revenue receipts;
B. Capital receipts;
C. Revenue expenditure;
D. Capital expenditure.
3. Those inflows of money to the government against which a liability of repayment
devolves upon the government, is known as-
A. Revenue receipts;
B. Capital receipts;
C. Revenue expenditure;
D. Capital expenditure.
4. A statement relating to the revenue expenditure and revenue receipts of the government is
known as-
A. Revenue budget;
B. Budget;
C. Capital budget;
D. None of these.
5. A statement relating to the capital receipts and capital expenditure of the government is
known as-
A. Revenue budget;
B. Budget;
C. Capital budget;
D. None of these.
6. A budget in which the receipts of the government exceed its expenditure is called-
A. Surplus budget;
B. Deficit budget;
C. Balanced budget;
D. None of the above.
7. A budget in which the receipts of the government fall short of its expenditure is known
as-
A. Surplus budget;
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B. Deficit budget;
C. Balanced budget;
D. None of the above.
8. A budget in which the receipts of the government are matched by its expenditure is
known as-
A. Surplus budget;
B. Deficit budget;
C. Balanced budget;
D. None of the above.
9. When revenue expenditure of the government is greater than the revenue receipts, it is
called-
A. Budget deficit;
B. Revenue deficit;
C. Fiscal deficit;
D. Monetized deficit.
10. When overall expenditure of the government is greater than the overall receipts, it is
called-
A. Budget deficit;
B. Revenue deficit;
C. Fiscal deficit;
D. Monetized deficit.
11. The excess of overall expenditure over the sum of revenue receipts, and recoveries of
loans is called-
A. Budget deficit;
B. Revenue deficit;
C. Fiscal deficit;
D. Monetized deficit.
12. When interest payment is deducted from fiscal deficit, it is called-
A. Budget deficit;
B. Revenue deficit;
C. Fiscal deficit;
D. Primary deficit.
Ques. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Ans. B A B A C A B C B A B D
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Write T for true and F for false statement given below:
1. An annual statement of the revenue and expenditure by the government is called budget.
2. In surplus budget, the receipts of the government fall short of its expenditure.
3. Recoveries of loans, market borrowings and other loans, external assistance,
disinvestment of PSU equity are capital receipts of the government.
4. Interest receipts, dividend and profits, external grants are non- tax revenues of the
government.
5. Corporation tax, income tax, custom duty and excise duty are tax revenue of the
government.
6. Interest payments, defense, subsidies, economic, social and other services are example of
government’s revenue expenditure.
7. Loans to public enterprises, states, and foreign governments are examples of capital
expenditure of the government.
8. If the receipts of the government are more than its expenditure, it is called surplus budget.
9. If the receipts of the government are less than its expenditure, then the budget is called
deficit budget.
10. When revenue expenditure of the government is less than the revenue receipts, it is called
revenue deficit.
Matching Test:
Match- I Match- II
A. If the receipts of the government are 1. Balanced budget
more than its expenditure
B. If the receipts of the government are 2. Surplus budget
equal to its expenditure
C. If the receipts of the government are 3. Deficit budget
less than its expenditure
Match- I A B C
Match- II 2 1 3
Match- I Match- II
A. Revenue Deficit 1. When interest payment is deducted from fiscal deficit.
B. Fiscal deficit 2. The excess of overall expenditure over the sum of revenue
receipts, and recoveries of loans
C. Budgetary deficit 3. When overall expenditure of the government is greater than
the overall receipts.
D. Primary deficit 4. When revenue expenditure of the government is greater than
the revenue receipts.
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Match- I A B C D
Match- II 4 2 3 1
Questions with Answer:
1. What is budget?
An annual statement of the revenue and expenditure by the government is called budget.
Budget
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running and to enable the government meet its liabilities. It is also known as current
expenditure of the government.
10. Define: revenue deficit, budgetary deficit, fiscal deficit, monetized deficit and
primary deficit.
Revenue Deficit: When revenue expenditure of the government is greater than the
revenue receipts, it is called revenue deficit. It is financed by drawing upon the capital
budget.
Budgetary deficit: when overall expenditure of the government is greater than the
overall receipts, it is called budgetary deficit. It is financed by printing of new currency
notes by the government.
Fiscal deficit: it is the excess of overall expenditure over the sum of revenue receipts,
and recoveries of loans. It is financed by loans and borrowings and printing of new
currency notes.
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Monetized deficit: that part of the fiscal deficit which is financed by printing of new
currency notes is called monetized deficit.
Primary deficit: when interest payment is deducted from fiscal deficit, it is called
primary deficit.
*****
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Chapter- 8: Monetary System
There is no unanimity among economist over the definition of the money. Money has been
defined differently by different economists. Some important definitions of money are given as:
Among these three definitions of the money Crowther definition is treated as suitable of the
money. In simple words money is anything which performs four main functions (i) medium of
exchange (ii) measure of value (iii) standard of deferred payments (iv) store of value
Functions of Money
Functions of Money
Primary Secondary
Contingent
Functions Functions
Functions
Primary Functions
I. Medium of Exchange
II. Measure of Value
I Medium of Exchange
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It is very important function of money. Any commodity can purchase and sold through medium
of exchange.
II Measure of Value
Money serves as common measure of value or a standard of value. Value of all goods and
services expressed in terms of money. For example price of pen as 5 S.R., price of book is 20
S.R., price of sugar is 5S.R per kg, Daily wages 20 S.R per hour etc. Thus, when the value of all
commodities is expressed in terms of money, it becomes easier for anyone to compare the
relative values of two commodities.
COTINGENT FUNCTIONS
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I. Distribution of National Income
Money helps to distribute national income among various factors in the form of money
wages, interest, rents and profits.
V. Liquidity
Money is most liquid assets. Money can easily converted into any gold and assets such as
land, machinery and equipment, stocks and shares, wheat, rice, books etc. it is because of
the liquidity people desire to have a money.
CLASSIFICATION OF MONEY
Money assumed different forms during the course of evolution and even in modern times there
exists various forms of money. We can classify money into three broad categories:
CLASSIFICATION
OF
MONEY
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A.METALLIC MONEY
Money is made of some metal is called metallic money. Metals which were served as money
were gold, silver, copper etc.
Metallic money further classified inti two parts full-bodied coins and token money coins
I. Full-Bodied Coins
Full-bodied money (or standard money) is that money whose value as commodity is
equal to value as money. For example 1 SR coins has the one SR value of silver used in
this coin then it is full bodied money.
II. Token Coins
Token coin is one whose value as money (face value) is significantly is greater than the
market value of the commodity of which it is made (intrinsic value).
B. PAPER MONEY
Money made of the paper is known as paper money or currency notes. Paper money further
classified three categories:
Credit money refers to bank deposits by people with banks which they can withdraw at any
time they like or transfer it to someone through a cheque.
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Central Bank
In every country there is central bank. The central bank is the apex institution of the financial
or the monetary system. In Kingdom of the Saudi Arab the central Bank is Saudi Arabian
Monetary Agency (SAMA) is the central bank of the nation. It supervises, regulates and
controls the activities of commercial banks and other financial institutions. The economist
defines central bank in accordance with their function:
1. According to Hawtrey, “Lender of the last resort is the essential function of the central
bank.”
2. In the opinion of the Vera Smith, “The primary definition of the central banking is a
banking system in which a central bank has a either a complete or a residuary monopoly
in the note issue.”
From the above statement the central bank defined as it is an apex institution which operates
controls, directs and regulates the monetary and banking structure of a country.
There are many advantages of the note issue by central banks some important ones are as follow:
1. Central bank controls the credit creating power of commercial bank. By controlling the
amount of currency in circulation, the volume of credit can be controlled to quite a large extent.
2. People have more confidence in the currency issued by the control bank because it has the
protection and recognition of the government.
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3. In the event of monopoly of note issue of central bank, there will be uniformity in the
currency system in the country.
4. The currency of the country will be flexible if the central bank of the country has the
monopoly of note issue because central bank can bring about changes very early in the volume of
paper money according to the needs of business, industry and messes.
5. The system of note issue has some advantages. If the central bank of the country has the
monopoly of note issue, all such advantages will accrue to the government.
Central bank is the bank of banks. This signifies that it has the same relationship with the
commercial banks in the country that they gave with their customers. It provides security to their
cash reserves, give them loan at the time of need, gives them advice on financial and economic
matter and work as clearing house among various members bank.
Central bank works as lender of the last resort for commercial banks because in the time of need
it provides them financial assistance and accommodation. Whenever a commercial bank faces
financial crisis, central bank as lender of the last resort comes to its rescue by advancing loans
and the bank is saved from being failed.
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7. Credit Control
These days, the most important function of a central bank is to control the volume of credit for
bringing about stability in the general price level and accomplishing various other socio
economic objectives. The significance of this function has increased so much that for property
understanding it. The central bank has acquired the rights and powers of controlling the entire
banking.
A central bank can adopt various quantitative and qualitative methods for credit control such as
bank rate, open market operation, changes in reserve ratio selective controls, moral situation etc.
Besides the 7 functions explained above, central banks perform many other functions that are as
follows:
Other Functions
8. Collection of Data
Central banks in almost all the countries collects statistical data regularly relating to economic
aspects of money, credit, foreign exchange, banking etc. from time to time, committees and
commission are appointed for studying various aspects relating to the aforesaid problem.
9. Central Banking in Developing Countries
The basic problem of underdeveloped countries is the problem of lack of capital formation
whose main causes are lack of saving and investment. Therefore, central bank can play an
important role by promoting capital formation through mobilizing saving s and encouraging
investment.
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Commercial Bank
In general, bank refers to a financial institution where we deposit our savings, withdraw our
money in case of emergency and take loans.
The banker is under obligation to repay the money to the depositor as and when demanded by the
depositor. The depositor can withdraw his money through cheques, drafts etc.
Let us see some other definitions given by different experts-
According to Crowther,
“A bank collects money from those who have it to spare or who are saving it out of their
incomes, and it lends this money to those who require it”
According to John Paget, “Nobody can be a banker who does not (i) take deposit accounts, (ii)
take current accounts, (iii) issue and pay cheques, and (iv) collects cheques- crossed and
uncrossed- for its customers”
The main functions of commercial banks are accepting deposits from the public and advancing
them loans.
However, besides these functions there are many other functions which these banks perform. All
these functions can be divided under the following heads:
1. Accepting deposits
2. Giving loans
3. Overdraft
4. Discounting of Bills of Exchange
5. Investment of Funds
6. Agency Functions
7. Miscellaneous Functions
1. Accepting Deposits:
The most important function of commercial banks is to accept deposits from the public. Various
sections of society, according to their needs and economic condition, deposit their savings with
the banks.
For example, fixed and low income group people deposit their savings in small amounts from the
points of view of security, income and saving promotion. On the other hand, traders and
businessmen deposit their savings in the banks for the convenience of payment.
Therefore, keeping the needs and interests of various sections of society, banks formulate various
deposit schemes. Generally, there are three types of deposits which are as follows:
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(i) Current Deposits:
The depositors of such deposits can withdraw and deposit money whenever they desire. Since
banks have to keep the deposited amount of such accounts in cash always, they carry either no
interest or very low rate of interest. These deposits are called as Demand Deposits because these
can be demanded or withdrawn by the depositors at any time they want.
Such deposit accounts are highly useful for traders and big business firms because they have to
make payments and accept payments many times in a day.
These are the deposits which are deposited for a definite period of time. This period is generally
not less than one year and, therefore, these are called as long term deposits. These deposits
cannot be withdrawn before the expiry of the stipulated time and, therefore, these are also called
as time deposits.
These deposits generally carry a higher rate of interest because banks can use these deposits for a
definite time without having the fear of being withdrawn.
In such deposits, money up to a certain limit can be deposited and withdrawn once or twice in a
week. On such deposits, the rate of interest is very less. As is evident from the name of such
deposits their main objective is to mobilise small savings in the form of deposits. These deposits
are generally done by salaried people and the people who have fixed and less income.
2. Giving Loans:
The second important function of commercial banks is to advance loans to its customers. Banks
charge interest from the borrowers and this is the main source of their income.
Banks advance loans not only on the basis of the deposits of the public rather they also advance
loans on the basis of depositing the money in the accounts of borrowers. In other words, they
create loans out of deposits and deposits out of loans. This is called as credit creation by
commercial banks.
Modern banks give mostly secured loans for productive purposes. In other words, at the time of
advancing loans, they demand proper security or collateral. Generally, the value of security or
collateral is equal to the amount of loan. This is done mainly with a view to recover the loan
money by selling the security in the event of non-refund of the loan.
At limes, banks give loan on the basis of personal security also. Therefore, such loans are called
as unsecured loan. Banks generally give following types of loans and advances:
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(i) Cash Credit:
In this type of credit scheme, banks advance loans to its customers on the basis of bonds,
inventories and other approved securities. Under this scheme, banks enter into an agreement with
its customers to which money can be withdrawn many times during a year. Under this set up
banks open accounts of their customers and deposit the loan money. With this type of loan, credit
is created.
These are such loans that can be recalled on demand by the banks. The entire loan amount is paid
in lump sum by crediting it to the loan account of the borrower, and thus entire loan becomes
chargeable to interest with immediate effect.
These loans may be given as personal loans, loans to finance working capital or as priority sector
advances. These are made against some security and entire loan amount is transferred to the loan
account of the borrower.
3. Over-Draft:
Banks advance loans to its customer’s up to a certain amount through over-drafts, if there are no
deposits in the current account. For this banks demand a security from the customers and charge
very high rate of interest.
This is the most prevalent and important method of advancing loans to the traders for short-term
purposes. Under this system, banks advance loans to the traders and business firms by
discounting their bills. In this way, businessmen get loans on the basis of their bills of exchange
before the time of their maturity.
5. Investment of Funds:
The banks invest their surplus funds in three types of securities—Government securities, other
approved securities and other securities. Government securities include both, central and state
governments, such as treasury bills, national savings certificate etc.
Other securities include securities of state associated bodies like electricity boards, housing
boards, debentures of Land Development Banks units of UTI, shares of Regional Rural banks
etc.
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6. Agency Functions:
Banks function in the form of agents and representatives of their customers. Customers give their
consent for performing such functions. The important functions of these types are as follows:
(i) Banks collect cheques, drafts, bills of exchange and dividends of the shares for their custom-
ers.
(ii) Banks make payment for their clients and at times accept the bills of exchange: of their cus-
tomers for which payment is made at the fixed time.
(iii) Banks pay insurance premium of their customers. Besides this, they also deposit loan
installments, income-tax, interest etc. as per directions.
(iv) Banks purchase and sell securities, shares and debentures on behalf of their customers.
(v) Banks arrange to send money from one place to another for the convenience of their custom-
ers.
7. Miscellaneous Functions:
Besides the functions mentioned above, banks perform many other functions of general utility
which are as follows:
i. Banks make arrangement of lockers for the safe custody of valuable assets of their
customers such as gold, silver, legal documents etc.
ii. Banks give reference for their customers.
iii. Banks collect necessary and useful statistics relating to trade and industry.
iv. For facilitating foreign trade, banks undertake to sell and purchase foreign exchange.
v. Banks advise their clients relating to investment decisions as specialist
vi. Bank does the under-writing of shares and debentures also.
vii. Banks issue letters of credit.
viii. During natural calamities, banks are highly useful in mobilizing funds and donations.
ix. Banks provide loans for consumer durables like Car, Air-conditioner, and Fridge etc.
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9. International Economics
(Trade, Finance, Balance of Payment and Exchange Rate)
International Trade
International trade is the exchange of capital, goods, and services across international
borders or territories.
International trade is also a branch of economics, which, together with international finance,
forms the larger branch called international economics.
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countries capable of producing two commodities engage in the free market, then each country
will increase its overall consumption by exporting the good for which it has a comparative
advantage while importing the other good, provided that there exist differences in labor
productivity between both countries. Widely regarded as one of the most powerful yet counter-
intuitive insights in economics, Ricardo's theory implies that comparative advantage rather
than absolute advantage is responsible for much of international trade.
Ricardo's example
In a famous example, Ricardo considers a world economy consisting of two
countries, Portugal and England, which produce two goods of identical quality. In Portugal, the a
priori more efficient country, it is possible to produce wine and cloth with less labor than it
would take to produce the same quantities in England. However, the relative costs of producing
those two goods differ between the countries.
Hours of work necessary to produce one unit
Country Cloth Wine
England 100 120
Portugal 90 80
In this illustration, England could commit 100 hours of labor to produce one unit of cloth, or
produce units of wine. Meanwhile, in comparison, Portugal could commit 90 hours of labor to
produce one unit of cloth, or produce 9/8 units of wine. So, Portugal possesses an absolute
advantage in producing cloth due to fewer labor hours, and England has acomparative
advantage due to lower opportunity cost.
In the absence of trade, England requires 220 hours of work to both produce and consume one
unit each of cloth and wine while Portugal requires 170 hours of work to produce and consume
the same quantities. If each country specializes in the good for which it has a comparative
advantage, then the global production of both goods increases, for England can spend 220 labor
hours to produce 2.2 units of cloth while Portugal can spend 170 hours to produce 2.125 units of
wine. Moreover, if both countries specialize in the above manner and England trades a unit of its
cloth for 5/6 to 9/8 units of Portugal's wine, then both countries can consume at least a unit each
of cloth and wine, with 0 to 0.2 units of cloth and 0 to 0.125 units of wine remaining in each
respective country to be consumed or exported. Consequently, both England and Portugal can
consume more wine and cloth under free trade than in autarky.
Modern theories
Since 1817, economists have attempted to generalize the Ricardian model and derive the
principle of comparative advantage in broader settings, most notably in the neoclassical specific
factors Ricardo-Viner and factor proportions Heckscher–Ohlin models. Subsequent
developments in the new trade theory, motivated in part by the empirical shortcomings of the H–
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O model and its inability to explain intra-industry trade, have provided an explanation for aspects
of trade that are not accounted for by comparative advantage. Nonetheless, economists like Alan
Deardorff, Avinash Dixit, Gottfried Haberler, and Victor D. Norman have responded with
weaker generalizations of the principle of comparative advantage, in which countries will
only tend to export goods for which they have a comparative advantage.
In both Ricardian and H–O models, the comparative advantage concept is formulated for 2
country, 2 commodity case. It can easily be extended to the 2 country, many commodity case or
many country, 2 commodity case. But in the case with many countries (more than 3 countries)
and many commodities (more than 3 commodities), the notion of comparative advantage
requires a substantially more complex formulation.
Heckscher–Ohlin model:
The Heckscher–Ohlin model (H–O model) is a general equilibrium mathematical model
of international trade, developed by Eli Heckscher and Bertil Ohlin at the Stockholm School of
Economics. It builds on David Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage by predicting patterns
of commerce and production based on the factor endowments of a trading region. The model
essentially says that countries will export products that use their abundant and cheap factor(s) of
production and import products that use the countries' scarce factor(s).
Relative endowments of the factors of production (land, labor, and capital) determine a country's
comparative advantage. Countries have comparative advantages in those goods for which the
required factors of production are relatively abundant locally. This is because the profitability of
goods is determined by input costs. Goods that require inputs that are locally abundant will be
cheaper to produce than those goods that require inputs that are locally scarce.
For example, a country where capital and land are abundant but labor is scarce will have
comparative advantage in goods that require lots of capital and land, but little labor—grains. If
capital and land are abundant, their prices will be low. As they are the main factors used in the
production of grain, the price of grain will also be low—and thus attractive for both local
consumption and export. Labor-intensive goods on the other hand will be very expensive to
produce since labor is scarce and its price is high. Therefore, the country is better off importing
those goods.
The Ricardian model of comparative advantage has trade ultimately motivated by differences in
labour productivity using different "technologies". Heckscher and Ohlin did not require
production technology to vary between countries, so (in the interests of simplicity) the "H–O
model has identical production technology everywhere". Ricardo considered a single factor of
production (labour) and would not have been able to produce comparative advantage without
technological differences between countries (all nations would become autarkic at various stages
of growth, with no reason to trade with each other). The H–O model removed technology
variations but introduced variable capital endowments, recreating endogenously the inter-country
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variation of labour productivity that Ricardo had imposed exogenously. With international
variations in the capital endowment like infrastructure and goods requiring different factor
"proportions", Ricardo's comparative advantage emerges as a profit-maximizing solution of
capitalist's choices from within the model's equations. The decision that capital owners are faced
with is between investments in differing production technologies; the H–O model assumes
capital is privately held.
Assumptions: The original, 2×2×2 model was derived with restrictive assumptions:
Heckscher–Ohlin theorem:
The exports of a capital-abundant country will be from capital-intensive industries, and labour-
abundant countries will import such goods, exporting labour-intensive goods in return.
Competitive pressures within the H–O model produce this prediction fairly straightforwardly.
Conveniently, this is an easily testable hypothesis.
Rybczynski theorem:
When the amount of one factor of production increases, the production of the good which uses
that particular factor of production intensively increases relative to the increase in the factor of
production, as the H–O model assumes perfect competition where price is equal to the costs of
factors of production. This theorem is useful in explaining the effects of IMMIGRATION
emigration, and foreign capital investment. However, Rybczynski suggests that a fixed quantity
of the two factors of production are required. This could be expanded to consider factor
substitution, in which case the increase in production would be more than proportional.
Stolper–Samuelson theorem:
Relative changes in output goods prices will drive the relative prices of the factors used to
produce them. If the world price of capital-intensive goods increases, it will increase the
relative rental rate as well as decrease the relative wage rate (the return on capital as against the
return to labor). Also if the price of labor-intensive goods increases, it will increase the
relative wage rate as well as decrease the relative rental rate.
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which has found the least agreement with the economic evidence. Neither the rental return to
capital, nor the wage rates seem to consistently converge between trading partners at different
levels of development.
Leontief paradox:
In 1954 an econometric test by Wassily W. Leontief of the H–O model found that the United
States, despite having a relative abundance of capital, tended to export labor-intensive goods and
import capital-intensive goods. This problem became known as the Leontief paradox. Alternative
trade models and various explanations for the paradox have emerged as a result of the paradox.
One such trade model, the Linder hypothesis, suggests that goods are traded based on similar
demand rather than differences in supply side factors (i.e., H–O's factor endowments).
Where Fc is the net trade of factor service vector for country , Vc the factor endowment vector
for country , and the country 's share of the world consumption and V the world total
endowment vector of factors. For many countries and many factors, it is possible to estimate the
left hand sides and right hand sides independently. To put it another way, the left hand side tells
the direction of factor service trade. Thus it is possible to ask how this system of equations holds.
The results obtained by Bowen, Leamer and Sveiskaus (1987) was disastrous.[4] They examined
the cases of 12 factors and 27 countries for the year 1967. They found that the both sides of the
equations had the same sign only for 61% of 324 cases. For the year 1983, the result was more
disastrous. Both sides had the same sign only for 148 cases out of 297 cases (or the rate of
correct predictions was 49.8%). The results of Bowen, Leamer, and Sveiskaus (1987) mean that
the Hecksher–Ohlin–Vanek (HOV) theory has no predictive power concerning the direction of
trade.
Gravity model of trade:
The gravity model of international trade predicts bilateral trade flows based on the economic
sizes of two nations, and the distance between them.
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industry of a country, the Ricardo–Sraffa theory can give a theoretical bases for the New Trade
Theory.
International Finance
International finance (also referred to as international monetary economics or international
macroeconomics) is the branch of financial economics broadly concerned with
monetary and macroeconomic interrelations between two or more countries. International
finance examines the dynamics of the global financial system, international monetary
systems, balance of payments, exchange rates, foreign direct investment, and how these topics
relate to international trade. Sometimes referred to as multinational finance, international finance
is additionally concerned with matters of international financial management. Investors
and multinational corporations must assess and manage international risks.
International Institutions
International Finance Facility
Foreign Direct Investment
Aid
Tax measure
International Institutions:
IMF:
IMF IMF gets its funds from its 184 member states – called ‘quotas’ Current funds in excess of
$310 billion Quotas determined by the ECONOMIC size of the member state The Headquarters
of the IMF in Washington DC.
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The World Bank:
The World BANK An agency of the United Nations A group of five organisations which focus
on providing funds for projects aimed at alleviating poverty, inequality and promoting
development Currently has 184 members
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Aid:
Aid Bilateral – from one country to another Multilateral – aid distributed by an agency who co-
ordinate donations Aid can be useful for important infrastructure projects such as dams which
help to generate electricity as well as providing irrigation schemes.
Aid:
Aid Benefits: Help to kick-start economic development Used to help develop vital infrastructure
needed to encourage other investment Costs: Not always used for appropriate purposes Can be
linked to various ‘strings’ that may not be in the recipient countries’ interests Crowding out of
domestic investment Creates a dependency culture Distorts the WORKING of the market
Tax Measures:
Tax Measures Tobin Tax – a tax imposed on CURRENCY TRADING Aims to reduce short
term speculative trades and stabilise currency flows Funds raised used to finance development
projects Political will to implement such a tax?
Tax Measures:
Tax Measures International aid to help developing countries improve tax systems to generate tax
revenue more efficiently International taxes on pollution, air transport, arms, rent on deep sea
mineral extraction – funds raised used to help fund development Issues of how far such taxes
could raise sufficient funds and whether they would distort markets too much.
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Exchange Rate
Points to be remembered:
Foreign Exchange (FOREX): A currency unit of a country.
Rate of Exchange: The value of domestic currency in terms of a unit of foreign currency.
Devaluation: A fall in the external value of domestic currency under a fixed exchange rate
system.
Depreciation: A fall in the external value of domestic currency under flexible exchange rate
system.
Balance of Trade: An account of the value of visible exports and the value of visible imports by
a country during a year.
Balance of Payments: A monetary statement of the total receipts and total payments of foreign
exchange of a country during a year.
Introduction:
International trade is different from domestic trade because all the transactions in domestic trade
are settled by means of domestic currency. For example—you want to buy a car or you want to
consult a doctor. You make the payment in Saudi Riyal. But Saudi Riyal is legal tender money
only within the political boundaries of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Beyond these political
boundaries Saudi Riyal loses all value. It becomes simple piece of paper. It does not command
any purchasing power. Therefore, if you need to purchase a good or a service from anywhere in
the rest of the world, you need to have the currency of that country.
We need to have foreign exchange to settle our transactions with the rest- of- the world.
Some foreign currencies are treated as ‘soft’ currencies and some are treated as ‘hard’
currencies.
Hard currencies are those currencies which are accepted throughout the world, although they are
not legal tender.
Nobody will accept Indian rupee outside India as a means of International payment. But
American dollar, British pound-sterling, the Japanese yen, the French franc, and the Italian lira
are accepted throughout the world.
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Rate of Exchange:
Rate of exchange refers to the external value of a currency that is; it is the purchasing power of a
currency in terms of other currencies.
In other words, rate of exchange refers to the number of units of foreign currency that can be
exchanged against a unit of domestic currency.
Forward Rate: The rate at which a future contract for foreign currency is bought and sold is
called forward rate. It is quoted at a premium or discount over the spot rate.
Fixed Exchange Rate: It refers to the system under which the rate of exchange of a currency is
fixed in terms of gold or in terms of another currency.
Flexible Exchange Rate: It is the type of exchange rate system which involves keeping the
exchange rate fixed over short period and changing it from time to time according to need.
Floating Exchange Rate: When the currency unit of a country is free to fluctuate and find its
own level, according to conditions of demand and supply in the foreign exchange market.
Multiple Rates: If a country adopts more than one rate of exchange for its currency, it is said to
follow a system of multiple exchange rates.
Two Tier Exchange Rate System: It is a form of multiple exchange rate system under which
the government maintains two rates- a higher rate for commercial transactions and a lower rate
for capital transactions.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) was set up in 1945. The member countries of the IMF
agreed among themselves to set up a fixed exchange rate system. All the member countries were
asked to communicate the gold values of their respective currencies to the IMF. The IMF
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established the parity between the gold values of different currencies. These became the rates of
exchange of different currencies.
For Example:
Suppose the gold values of the three currencies, Saudi Riyal, American dollar, and British pound
were as follows:
SR 1 = 1 oz of gold
$ 1 = 2 oz of gold
£ 1 = 4 oz of gold
Then,
£ 1 = 2$ = SR 4
Or,
SR 1 = $0.5 = £0.25
This is how the rates of exchange of all other countries were determined.
The member countries were not allowed to change their rates of exchange without the prior
permission of the IMF.
Devaluation of currency means to bring down the external value of its currency. It encourages
exports and discourages imports.
Revaluation of currency means to raise the external value of its currency. It encourages imports
and discourages exports.
Since 1972:
The rate of exchange of a currency is determined by demand for and supply of foreign exchange
in its foreign exchange market. This is known as the market- determined rate of exchange.
Every country has foreign transactions in goods, services and capital which involve payments
and receipts of foreign exchange. Payments in foreign exchange results in demand for foreign
exchange and receipts in foreign exchange result in supply of foreign exchange. Demand and
supply of foreign exchange interact to determine the rate of exchange.
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Demand for foreign exchange:
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India’s foreign exchange market and Indian rupee will
tend to appreciate.
Balance of Payments
Meaning:
Monetary transactions between countries arise due to transactions in the flow of goods, services
and capital.
All the transactions, in goods, services and capital, are accounted for in foreign exchange.
When a country exports goods, services and capital, it receives payment in foreign exchange.
Similarly, when a country imports goods, services and capital, it makes payment in foreign
exchange to the other country. Balance of payments statement records all these transactions on
an annual basis.
Balance of payments has two sides: debit and credit. Payments are recorded on the debit side and
receipts on the credit side. Debit side are recorded with a minus (-) sign and credit items are
recorded with plus (+) sign.
The balance of payments accounts are prepared on the double- entry system of accounting.
Hence the sum of all debits should necessarily be equal to the sum of all credits. That is why it is
said that balance of payments is always balanced in accounting sense.
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Balance of Trade/ Visible: In balance of trade we include the value of exports and imports of all
visible goods (tangible goods only) during a year.
The difference between the value of exports and value of imports is called balance of trade. It
may be favorable (positive), unfavorable (negative) or balanced.
When the value of exports is greater than the value of imports during the year, it is called trade
surplus or favorable trade of positive balance of trade.
When the value of exports is less than the value of imports during the year, it is called trade
deficit or unfavorable trade of negative balance of trade.
When the value of exports is equal to the value of imports during the year, it is called balanced
trade.
Balance of Invisibles: We include the value of different types of services which are also known
as invisible items (intangibles), rendered to or received from rest of the world.
Types of Services:
The difference between the value of exports and value of imports of invisible goods or services is
called balance of invisibles. As balance of goods trade, it may also be favorable (positive),
unfavorable (negative) or balanced.
The sum total of the balance of trade (BoT) and balance of invisibles (BoI) gives us balance of
payment (BoP) on current account, i.e.,
BoP on current account may also be favorable, unfavorable or balanced during a year.
A favorable BoP on current account means that a country has earned more foreign exchange than
it has spent during the year. This situation is also known as BoP surplus or current account
surplus.
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An unfavorable BoP on current account means that a country has spent more foreign exchange
than it has earned during the year. This situation is known as BoP deficit or current account
deficit.
When a country’s total earnings is equal to its total expenditure of foreign exchange during a
year, it is called balanced BoP in current account.
Capital account statement records the flows of capital. Flows of capital may take any of the
following forms:
Capital flows are required to settle surplus or deficit in BoP on current account.
A country which has a current account surplus should be sending out its capital in different
forms. It ought to have a capital account deficit. This deficit will cancel the current account
surplus.
A country which has a current account deficit must arrange a net inflow of capital from abroad.
Capital account surplus is required to finance current account deficit.
Thus, a country which has a current account surplus will manage a capital account deficit and
vice versa.
Overall balance of payments is the sum total of BoP on current account and BoP on capital
account.
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Difference between Balance of Trade and Balance of Payments
There are following difference between balance of trade and balance of payments
1. Balance of payment accounts takes the stock of county’s foreign exchange receipts
and payments obligations with a view to correcting accounting aberrations.
2. It yields necessary information on the strength and weaknesses of the country
international economic transactions.
3. By analyzing the balance of payments accounts of the past years, we can find out
overall gains and losses from international economic transactions
4. Balance of payments accounts Caution us and provide enough signals for future
policy formulations.
5. With the help of balance of payments accounts, we are able to know the manner in
which national economy affects and is affected by transactions with the rest of the
world markets.
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Chapter- 10
Economic Growth & Development
Economic development is fundamentally about enhancing a nation’s factors of productive
capacity, i.e., land, labour, capital, and technology, etc. By using its resources and powers to
reduce the risks and costs, which could prohibit investment, the public sector often has been
responsible for setting the stage for employment-generating investment by the private sector. The
public sector generally seeks to increase incomes, the number of jobs, and the productivity of
resources in regions, states, countries, cities, towns, and neighbourhoods. Its tools and strategies
have often been effective in enhancing a community's:
labour force (workforce preparation, accessibility, cost)
infrastructure (accessibility, capacity, and service of basic utilities, as well as
transportation and telecommunications)
business and community facilities (access, capacity, and service to business incubators,
industrial/technology/science parks, schools/community colleges/universities,
sports/tourist facilities)
environment (physical, psychological, cultural, and entrepreneurial)
economic structure (composition)
Institutional capacity (leadership, knowledge, skills) to support economic development
and growth.
However, there can be trade-offs between economic development's goals of job creation and
wealth generation. Increasing productivity, for instance, may eliminate some types of jobs in the
short-run. Economic development encompasses a broad and expansive set of activities and tools
that assist communities in growth and prosperity. The best economic development practitioners
strive to bring quality jobs, new businesses and increased services (along with numerous other
benefits) to communities through innovative approaches and outcome driven strategies.
Technology development has added a new dimension to the role of economic development
professionals. The quest for increased technology can be confusing and challenging from many
perspectives. Communities must judge to what extent they should strive to recruit and support
the technology industry, how to determine the proper role of advanced technology on the
organization’s everyday activities and design ways to help local businesses tap into technology
opportunities. Many communities have been able to incorporate technology into both their
practices and programs while others have struggled to understand the capabilities of this
industry. As the information age and technology sector maintain steady growth, the need for
more advanced economic development activity is expanding as well. Technology development
encompasses increased infrastructure capabilities, advanced financing options, innovative
marketing processes and start-up business assistance.
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Economic Development vs. Economic Growth
Development is a qualitative change, which entails changes in the structure of the economy,
including innovations in institutions, behaviour, and technology.
Growth is a quantitative change in the scale of the economy - in terms of investment, output,
consumption, and income.
According to this view, economic development and economic growth are not necessarily the
same thing. First, development is both a prerequisite to and a result of growth. Development,
moreover, is prior to growth in the sense that growth cannot continue long without the sort of
innovations and structural changes noted above. But growth, in turn, will drive new changes in
the economy, causing new products and firms to be created as well as countless small
incremental innovations. Together, these advances allow an economy to increase its productivity,
thereby enabling the production of more outputs with fewer inputs over the long haul.
Environmental critics and sustainable development advocates, furthermore, often point out that
development does not have to imply some types of growth. An economy, for instance, can be
developing, but not growing by certain indicators. Indeed, the measure of productivity should not
be solely monetary; it should also address the issues like how effectively scarce natural resources
are being used? How well pollution is being reduced or prevented? Etc.
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4. The drive to maturity: It is the stage of increasing sophistication of the economy. Against
the background of steady growth, new industries are developed, there is less reliance on imports
and more exporting activity. The economy demonstrate its capacity to move beyond the original
industries which powered its takeoff, and to absorb and to apply efficiently the most advanced
fruits of modern technology.
5. The stage of mass production and mass consumption: The fourth stage ends in the
attainment of fifth stage, which is the period of mass production and consumption. The economy
is characterised by affluent population, availability of durable and sophisticated consumer goods,
hi-tech industries, and production of diversified goods and services. USA, UK, Canada, France,
Germany, Japan, Spain, Italy, etc are the examples.
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6. Inadequate infrastructure: like airports, rail roads, highways, overheads, bridges,
telecommunication facilities, sewerage and drainage, power generation, hospitals, etc.
7. Rapid population growth and disguised unemployment
8. Under-utilisation of natural resources
9. Poor consumption pattern: In less-developed countries, most of the people’s income is spent
on basic necessities of life. They are too poor to spend on other industrial goods and services.
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income is saved in UDCs. Much of the savings goes to housing and basic needs and, therefore, a
very small amount is left over for development.
Capital formation is the basic tool for economic development. It may take decades to invest in
building up a country’s infrastructure, information technologies, power-generating plants, and
other capital goods industries. Developing countries must have to build up their infrastructure,
or social overhead capital in order to set path for economic glory.
If there are so many obstacles in finding domestic savings for capital formation, then the country
depends on foreign sources of funds. Less-developed countries have to welcomed the flow of
foreign capital or foreign borrowings. As long as the exports of these countries grew at the same
rate as borrowings, it is a favourable condition. But several poor countries needed all their
earnings simply to pay interest on their foreign debts. This is an adverse situation. Such
countries need to boost up their production in order to cope with their current indebtedness.
3. Capital-output ratio: Apart from the ratio of capital formation to the aggregate national
income, the growth of output depends upon the capital-output ratio. The capital-output ratio may
be defined as the relationship of investment in a given economy or industry for a given time
period to the output of that economy or industry for a similar time period. The productivity of
capital depends on many factors such as the degree of technological development associated with
capital investment, the efficiency of handling new types of equipment, the quality of managerial
and organisation skill, the existence and the extent of the utilisation of economic overheads and
the pattern and rate of investment. For instance, the higher the proportion of investment devoted
to the production of direct commodities, the lower the capital-output ratio, and higher the
proportion of investment devoted to public utilities, i.e., economic and social overheads, the
higher shall be the capital-output ratio, and vice versa. Higher the investment devoted to heavy
industry, the higher will be the capital-output ratio, and vice versa. Higher the rate of investment
and greater the technological progress, the lower will be the capital-output ratio. The capital-
output ratio also varies with the prices of inputs.
4. Technological progress: The key to economic development for any country is the
technological progress. Greater the technological progress, the higher will be the economic
progress. The great importance of technological progress in the economic progress of Western
European countries was recognised by Karl Marx himself. The technological progress of a
country includes development in research and development, means of transportation,
telecommunication, energy-generation, oil and gas exploration, information technologies,
integrated circuits manufacturing, etc. Again, without capital formation, the technological
progress is impossible, because building huge hi-tech industries requires a huge investment and a
favourable economic condition.
5. Dynamic entrepreneurship: The modern economists recognise the dynamic role of
entrepreneurs in promoting the economic growth of the country. The efficient utilisation of
entrepreneurial skills can only be ensured when there is presence of considerable profit
motive. The entrepreneur maximises his profit by making innovations, i.e., by bringing out a
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new product, new technologies, new product lines, new market, new sources of raw materials
and by adopting an optimum combination of factors of production. Thus he is making the most
significant contribution in the national income and in the technological progress.
The private enterprises in UDCs like India and Pakistan, has not taken them any far on the road
of economic development. There is a lacking of entrepreneurial skills in under-developed
countries. There is a lack of innovation. Entrepreneurs are more attracted by commerce than by
industries. So it becomes the government’s duty to ensure the supply of required type of
entrepreneurship.
6. Human Resources: Besides efficient entrepreneurs, the economic development of a
country depends on the supply of skilled and semi-skilled labour, and requires government’s
greatest contribution to the development of human resources. The development of human
resources depends on the availability of hygienic food; quantity and quality of education centres
and health centres; clean water; means of transportation and communication; entertainment;
counselling services; loan facilities; scholarship; job security and old age benefits; etc.
In poor countries GDP rises but at the same time the population also grows. Several developing
countries are facing high birth rates with stagnant national income per head. It is hard for poor
countries to overcome poverty with birth rates so high. In under-developed countries, the
economic planners emphasise the following specific programmes:
(a) Control disease and improve health and nutrition,
(b) Improve education, reduce illiteracy and train workers, and
(c) Ensure that the labour force is well-equipped with necessary and competing
skills.
7. Rate of growth of population: The size and rate of population growth has an important
bearing on the economic development of a country. A rapidly growing population aggravates
the food problem, worsens the unemployment situation, adds to the number of unproductive
consumers, keeps down per capita income and labour efficiency, and militates against capital
formation. A rapid rate of population growth acts like a drag on economic development and
slows down the pace of economic growth.
8. Price Mechanism: In under-developed economies, a very little emphasis is placed on price
mechanism. The disequilibrium of prices has severe consequences on the efficiency of the
economy. The resource utilisation becomes lack of optimality. The productive machinery of the
community is hampered. There is no guarantee as regard to the quantity and quality of the
production.
In order to speed up the economic development, price mechanism must go or confined to
unimportant sectors of the economy like the purchase and sale of consumer goods.
9. Non-economic factors: Non-economic factors include social factors, demographical
factors, institutional factors and political factors. The economic development depends on the
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political sovereignty, the complexion and competence of government, quality of administration,
and political ideology of government.
Overcoming the barriers of poverty often requires a concentrated effort on many fronts and a
‘big-push’ is required to break the ‘vicious cycle’ into ‘virtuous circle’. If the country has
stepped to invest more, improve health and education, develop labour skills, and curb population
growth, she can break vicious cycle of poverty and stimulate a virtuous circle of rapid economic
growth.
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2. The Backwardness Hypothesis and Convergence: The second approach emphasises the
global context of economic development. Poor countries have important advantages that the
pioneers of industrialisation had not. Developing nations can draw upon the capital, skills and
technologies of advanced countries. Developing countries can buy modern textile machinery,
efficient pumps, miracle seeds, chemical fertilisers and medical supplies. Because they can lean
on the technologies of advanced countries. Today’s developing nations can grow more rapidly
than Great Britain, Western European Countries and United States in past. By drawing upon
more productive technologies of the leaders, the developing countries would expect to see
convergence towards the technological frontier.
3. Balanced Growth: Some writers suggest that growth is a balanced process with countries
progressing steadily ahead. In their view, economic development resembles the tortoise making
continual progress, rather than the hare, who runs in spurts and then rats when exhausted. Simon
Kuznets examined the history of thirteen advanced countries and conceived that the balanced
growth model is most consistent with the countries he studied. He noticed no significant rise or
fall in economic growth as development progressed.
Note one further important difference between these approaches. The ‘take-off’ theory suggests
that there will be increasing divergence among countries (some flying rapidly, while others are
unable to leave the ground). The ‘backward’ hypothesis suggests ‘convergence’, while the
‘balanced-growth’ model suggests roughly ‘constant’ differentials. In the following diagrams,
advanced countries are represented by curve A, middle income countries by curve B and low-
income countries by curve C. The curves show per capita income:
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Strategies of Economic Development
Following are the strategies commonly applied in economic planning:
1. Balanced vs. Unbalanced Growth: Currently there are two major schools of thoughts
regarding the process of growth, i.e., balanced growth strategy and unbalanced growth strategy:
(a) Balanced Growth Strategy: Economists like Ragnar Nurkse and Rosenstsein-Rodan
strongly advocate balanced growth strategy. According to them, the pattern of investment should
be so designed as to ensure a balanced development of the various sectors of the economy. They
advocate simultaneous investment in a number of industries so that there is a balanced growth of
different industries.
(b) Unbalanced Growth Strategy: Economists like H.W. Singer and A.O. Hirschman, on the
other side, believe that rapid economic growth follows ‘concentration’ of investment in certain
strategic industries rather than an even distribution of investment among the various
industries. In the view of these economists, unbalanced growth is more conducive in economic
development than a balanced one.
2. Big-Push Strategy: The big-push strategy is associated with the name of Rosenstein-Roden
and Harvey Leibenstein. It is contended that a big-push is needed to overcome the initial inertia
of a stranger economy. Rosenstein-Roden observes that there is a minimum level of resources
that must be devoted to a development programme if it is to have any chance of
success. Launching a country into self-sustaining growth is like getting an airplane off the
ground. There is critical ground speed which must be passed before the craft can become
airborne.
3. Balanced, Unbalanced and Big-Push (BUB) Strategy: The advocates of this strategy
suggest that no single strategy will take us to the goal of economic development. Not only has
the strategy to be changed from time to time as the situation may require, but it may be necessary
sometimes to strike a balance between the alternative strategies. In the initial stage, which is
characterised by unbalances, counter-unbalance strategy is to be adopted. But once an
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appropriate balance is attained by a fair dose of big-push, the strategy of balanced growth may be
applied to further planning.
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Classical Model of Economic Growth
Every nation strives after development. Economic progress is an essential component, but it is
not the only component. Economic development is not purely an economic phenomenon. In an
ultimate sense, it must encompass more than the material and financial side of people’s lives.
Economic development should therefore be perceived as a multidimensional process involving
the reorganization and reorientation of entire economic and social systems. In addition to
improvements in incomes and output, it typically involves radical changes in institutional, social,
and administrative structures. Finally, although development is usually defined in a national
context, its widespread realization may necessitate fundamental modification of the international
economic and social system as well.
The classical theories of economic development consist of following four schools of thought:
1. Linear-stages-of-growth model: Theorists of the 1950s and 1960s viewed the process of
development as a series of successive stages of economic growth through which all countries
must pass. It was primarily an economic theory of development in which the right quantity and
mixture of saving, investment, and foreign aid were all that was necessary to enable developing
nations to proceed along an economic growth path that historically had been followed by the
more developed countries. Development thus became synonymous with rapid, aggregate
economic growth.
This linear-stages approach was largely replaced in the 1970s by two competing economic
schools of thought – theories of structural changeand international-dependence theories.
2. Theories and patterns of structural change: Theories and patterns of structural change uses
modern economic theory and statistical analysis in an attempt to portray the internal process of
structural change that a “typical ”developing country must undergo if it is to succeed in
generating and sustaining a process of rapid economic growth.
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proliferation of dual economies and dual societies both within and among the nations of the
world. Dependence theories tended to emphasize external and internal institutional and political
constraints on economic development. Emphasis was placed on the need for major new policies
to eradicate poverty, to provide more diversified employment opportunities, and to reduce
income inequalities.
In the 1980s, the political ascendancy of conservative governments in the United States, Canada,
Britain, and West Germany brought aneoclassical counterrevolution in economic theory and
policy. In developed nations, this counterrevolution favoured supply-side macroeconomic
policies, rational expectations theories, and the privatisation of public corporations. In
developing countries it called for freer markets and the dismantling of public ownership, central
planning, and government regulation of economic activities. Neo-classicists obtained controlling
votes on the boards of the world’s two most powerful international financial agencies — the
World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. In conjunction and with the simultaneous
erosion of influence of organizations such as the International Labour Organization (ILO), the
United Nations Development Program (UNDP), and the United Nations Conference on Trade
and Development (UNCTAD), which more fully represent the views of LDC delegates.
Neo-classical or neo-liberal approach states that economic growth can be put to spur by:
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Eliminating the plethora of government regulations and price distortions in factor,
product and market.
1. Linear-stages-of-growth model:
Rostow also clarified that these stages are not merely a way of generalising certain
factual observations about the sequence of development of modern societies. He argued
that the advanced countries had all passed the stage of take-off into self-sustaining
growth and the under-developed countries that were still in either the traditional society
or the pre-conditions stage. One of the principal strategies of development necessary for
any take-off was the mobilisation of domestic and foreign saving in order to generate
sufficient investment to accelerate economic growth.
The model suggests that the economy's rate of growth depends on:
For example, if $10 worth of capital equipment produces each $1 of annual output, a
capital-output ratio of 10 to 1 exists. A 3 to 1 capital-output ratio indicates that only $3 of
capital is required to produce each $1 of output annually.
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The Harrod-Domar model was developed to help analyse the business cycle. However, it
was later adapted to 'explain' economic growth.
2. Structural-change theory:
(a) Lewis Theory of Development: It is one of the best-known early theoretical models
of economic development that focused on the structural transformation of a primarily
subsistence economy was that formulated by Noble-prize winner Sir W. Arthur Lewis in
the mid 1950s. His theory was later modified by his followers. The Lewis two-sector
economy model became the general theory of the development process in surplus-labour
Third-World nations during most of the 1960s and 1970s. In the Lewis model, the
underdeveloped economy consists of two sectors:
The primary focus of the model is on both the process of labour transfer and the growth
of output and employment in the modern sector. Both labour transfer and modern-sector
employment growth are brought about by output expansion in that sector.
In addition to the accumulation of capital both physical and human, a set of interrelated
changes in the economic structure of a country are required for the transition from a
traditional economic system to a modern one.
These structural changes involve virtually all economic functions, including the
transformation of production and changes in the composition of consumer demand,
international trade and resource use as well as changes in socio-economic factors such as
urbanisation, and the growth and distribution of a country’s population.
3. International-dependence revolution:
Within this general approach, there are three major streams of thought:
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(a) Neo-Colonial Dependence Model: It is an indirect outgrowth of Marxist thinking. It
refers to the existence and continuance of underdevelopment in a highly unequal
international capitalist system. The international system is dominated by unequal power
relationships between the centre (the developed nations) and the periphery (the less
developed countries). The poor nations attempt to become self-reliant and independent
but this system makes it difficult and sometimes even impossible.
According to this theory, certain groups in the developing countries (including landlords,
entrepreneurs, military rulers, merchants, salaried public officials, and trade union
leaders) who enjoy high incomes, social status, and political power constitute a small
elite ruling class whose principal interests are in perpetuation of the international
capitalist system of inequality. Directly and indirectly, they serve (are dominated by)and
are rewarded by (are dependent on) international special-interest power groups including
multinational corporations, national bilateral-aid agencies, and multilateral assistance
organizations like the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Therefore,
a major restructuring of the world capitalist system is required to free dependent
developing nations from the direct and indirect economic control of their developed-
world and domestic oppressors.
“One must denounce the existence of economic, financial, and social mechanisms which,
although they are manipulated by people, often function almost automatically, thus
accentuating the situation of wealth for some and poverty for the rest. These
mechanisms, which are manoeuvred directly or indirectly by the more developed
countries, by their very functioning, favour the interests of the people manipulating
them. But in the end they suffocate or condition the economies of the less developed
countries.”
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mainstream, Lewis-type surplus labour or Chenery-type structural-change models, in
many cases merely serve the vested interests of existing power groups, both domestic and
international.
This coexistence is chronic and not merely transitional. It is not due to a temporary
phenomenon, in which with the capacity of time, the discrepancy between superior and
inferior elements would be eliminated.
4. Neo-classical counterrevolution:
(a) Free-Market Analysis: Free-market analysis argues that markets alone are efficient
if:
Product markets provide the best signals for investments in new activities,
Labour markets respond to these new industries in appropriate ways,
Producers know best what to produce and how to produce it efficiently, and
Product and factor prices reflect accurate scarcity values of goods and
resources.
(b) Public-Choice Theory: Public-choice theory, also known as ‘new political economy
approach’, goes even further to argue that government can do nothing right. This is
because that politicians, bureaucrats, citizens and states act solely from a self-interested
perspective, using their powers and the authority of government for their own selfish
needs. Citizens use political influence to obtain special benefits (sometimes also referred
to as ‘rent’) from government policies, for example, import licenses, or rationed
forex. Politicians use government resources to consolidate and maintain positions of
power and authority. Bureaucrats use their positions to extract bribes from rent-seeking
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citizens and to operate protected business on the side. And finally state uses its power to
confiscate private property from individuals. The net result is not only a misallocation of
resources but also a general reduction in individual freedoms. The conclusion, therefore,
is that minimal government is the best government.
Czarist Russia grew rapidly from 1880 to 1914; it was considerably less developed than
industrialised countries like US and Great Britain. World War I brought great hardship to Russia
and allowed the communists to seize power. From 1917 to 1933, the Soviet Union experimented
with different socialist models before settling on central planning. Most economists believed
until recently that the Soviet Union grew rapidly from 1928 until the mid 1960s. After the mid
1960s, growth in Soviet Union stagnated and output actually began to decline. In the late 1980s
and early 1990s, open inflation erupted. Prices were well below market-clearing levels and acute
shortages arose in what is called ‘repressed inflation’. The repressive political system was
unacceptable to the people in Soviet Union and some countries in Eastern Europe and was
universally rejected in 1989.
The father of this repressive political system – Communism is Karl Marx (1818 – 1883). The
centrepiece of Marx’s work is an incisive analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of
capitalism. He argued that it is the only labour power that gives value to a commodity. By
imputing all the value of output to labour, Marx hoped to show that profits, which is the part of
output that is produced by workers but received by capitalists, amount to ‘unearned
income’. According to Marx, this unearned income is unjustly received by capitalists. This
injustice can be eliminated by transferring the ownership of factories and other means of
production from capitalists to workers.
Marx saw capitalism as inevitably leading to Socialism. In Marx’s world, technology enables
capitalists to replace workers with machinery as a means of earning greater profits. As a result
unemployment increases with the increased use of technological advances. This increasing
accumulation of capital will reduce the rate of profit and investment opportunities, and therefore,
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the ruling capitalists will become imperialists. Karl Marx believed that the capitalist system
could not continue this unbalanced growth. Marx predicted increasing inequality under
capitalism. Business cycles would become ever more violent as mass poverty resulted in macro-
economic under-consumption. Finally, a cataclysmic depression would sound the death knell of
capitalism. The economic interpretation of history is one of Marx’s lasting contributions to
Western thought. Marx argued that economic interests lie behind and determine our values. His
arguments against capitalism suggested communism would arise in the most highly developed
industrial countries. Instead, it was backward, feudal Russia that adopted the Marxist vision.
Marx propounded his theory of surplus value on the basis of his theory of value. He said that in
order to enable labour to carry on the work of production, he should have some instruments of
production and other facilities but he lacks these facilities. Hence, he has to sell his labour to the
capitalist. It is, however, not necessary for the capitalist to pay labour the full value of the
product produced by him. Here Karl Marx supported his theory on the basis of a classical
theory, viz., the subsistence theory of value, according to which the level of wages is determined
by the subsistence of the worker. The work of labour force is not merely to produce value equal
to its price but much more. This surplus value is the difference between the market value of the
commodity and the cost of the factors used in the production of commodity. Karl Marx says that
the manufacturer gets for his commodity more than what he has spent on labour and other
costs. The excess of market value over the costs is the surplus value. This surplus is created
because labour is paid much less than is due to it. He characterises the appropriation of the
surplus value by the capitalist as robbery and exploitation. The capitalist class goes on becoming
richer and richer through exploitation of the working class.
*****
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