Phast Risk

Tutorial Manual

DNV SOFTWARE
Palace House, 3 Cathedral Street, London SE19DE, UK
http://www.dnv.com/software

© Copyright Det Norske Veritas. All Rights Reserved.

No reproduction or broadcast of this material is permitted without the express written consent of DNV.
Contact [email protected] for more information.
 Contents

Chapter 1 An Introduction to Phast Risk 1

In the first chapter you open an example analysis provided with the program,
explore its main features, and run the calculations and view the results –
without having to enter or change any input data.

Chapter 2 Setting up your own Analysis 17

The second chapter guides you through the process of starting a new Study
Folder and setting up the background map and weather data for a risk
analysis.

Chapter 3 Performing the Consequence Analysis 24

In the third chapter you define a range of common types of hazardous event
and perform the consequence analysis to obtain the size of the effect zones.
The tutorial supplies all of the input values that you will need to complete the
analysis.

Chapter 4 Performing the Risk Calculations 43

In the final chapter you define population and ignition data and run the risk
calculations to obtain individual and societal risk results.
 Chapter 1: Introduction

Chapter 1
An Introduction to Phast Risk

What to Expect of this Tutorial

The aim of this tutorial is to make you familiar with the ideas and techniques involved
in performing a risk analysis with Phast Risk, and to give you practice in defining a
range of common types of hazardous events. By the time you have finished the tutorial
you should have a firm understanding of the issues involved, and be ready to start
work on a risk analysis of your own.
The tutorial is divided into four chapters. In this first chapter you will open an example
analysis provided with the program, explore its main features, run the calculations and
view the results – without having to enter or change any input data. In the second
chapter you will start a new analysis. First you will set up the background data, then in
the third chapter you will define a range of hazardous events and perform a
consequence analysis for them, and in the fourth chapter you will define population
data and complete the risk calculations.
The tutorial should take 2-3 hours to complete. You do not have to complete it in a
single sitting, and can take a break between chapters if you prefer.

Starting the Program Running

When you install the program, the installation process places a DNV Software folder
under Programs in your Start menu, and also adds a Phast Risk shortcut to your Desktop.
You can use either method to start the program running.

The Main Window

When you start the program running, the main window will open as shown.

The Main Window on Start-up

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 Chapter 1: Introduction

In the Message Log it should state that the “Licence is valid”. You must have a valid
license for Phast Risk set up on your computer in order to be able to enter data and run
the calculations. If the Message Log says that you do not have a valid license, you
should contact product support using the details given under Product Support in the Help
menu Full instructions for licensing of Phast can be found in the Phast installation
notes, available on the installation CD.
The window will normally open with no Study Folder loaded – where a “Study
Folder” is a file that contains the definition of a risk analysis – and you must open or
create a Study Folder file before you can perform any modelling work with the
program. If you wish, you can change the Installation Preferences under the Options
menu so that the program starts by automatically opening a Study Folder (e.g. the
Study Folder you worked on most recently).

Opening the Phast Risk Example Study Folder

The program is supplied with an example
Study Folder called “Tutorials”, which is
used in this chapter to give a quick
introduction to the terminology and
approach used in the program.
To open the Study Folder, choose Open
Example… from the File menu. A File Open
dialog displays the contents of the
Examples folder installed with the program files. Select the Tutorials folder to get to the
Phast Risk Example study. There are three file-formats available for Study Folder files
(.psu, .psc and .mdf), but the default format is the *.psu format, and the Phast Risk Example
Study file is in this format. Select the file, and click on Open. You will be prompted to
save the file with a new name and new location.
The appearance of the main window changes when a Study Folder is open: there are
many more toolbars, and there is a pane with seven tab sections at the left side of the
window, as shown. The pane is known as the “Study Tree” pane, and you work in its
various tab sections to set up the input data for the analysis.

The Main Window with a Study Folder Open

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 Chapter 1: Introduction

The Study Tree Pane

The Study Tree pane allows you to organise and edit the input data for your risk
analysis. The pane contains a number of tab sections, each of which covers a different
type of input data, and these tab sections are described below.
Run Rows Tab Section
The first tab section in the Study Tree pane is the Run Rows tab section. In Phast Risk, a
“Run Row” is a combination of input data from across the other tab sections, and you
can use different Run Rows to calculate the risk for alternative scenarios (e.g. for day
conditions and for night conditions), and then to combine or to compare the risks. The
Phast Risk Example Study Study Folder has two Run Rows defined: one calculating risk for
day conditions, and the other for calculating risk for night conditions.
The concept of a Run Row should become clearer after you have seen the setup of the
input data in the other tab sections, and when you see the method for defining a Run
Row, in the next section.
The Models Tab Section
The term “Model” is used in two different ways in Phast
Risk, though these different meanings are unlikely to
cause you confusion.
“Model”: a set of available calculations
The program has several different sets of calculations
available, and each of these sets is known as a separate
Model and has its own icon. For example, there is a
Model known as the “Vessel/Pipe Source Model” that
has a blue icon that represents a process vessel; this
Model considers the release of material from its storage
or process conditions in a vessel or pipe, through all the
stages in its dispersion to a harmless concentration, and
it also performs fire, explosion and toxic calculations to
obtain representative effect zones for the dispersing cloud. There is another Model
known as the “Fireball Model” that has a red and yellow icon that represents a fireball
flame; this Model considers only the radiation effect zones from a fireball, and does not
perform any of the release and dispersion modelling performed by the Vessel/Pipe
Source Model. There are thirteen different types of Consequence Model (Vessel/Pipe
Source*, User Defined Source*, Pool Fire Standalone, Fireball Standalone, Warehouse
Route, Effect, Jet fire Standalone, Pool Vaporization, Standalone TNT Explosion,
Standalone Multi-Energy, Explosion Standalone, Baker Strehlow Explosion Standalone,
BLEVE Blast Standalone) 7** of which can be used in the risk calculations (Vessel/Pipe
Source*, User Defined Source*, Pool Fire Standalone, Fireball Standalone, Warehouse
Route, Effect)

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 Chapter 1: Introduction

* Jet fire effect is included in the risk calculation if produced by a Vessel /Pipe model or User
Defined Source.
** Extended Explosion Modelling is a chargeable extension and not part of the standard Phast
Risk installation In this extension Multi Energy and Baker Strehlow Tang explosion models can
be used in the risk calculations.
You define a given hazardous event that you want to analyse by selecting the most
suitable Model from the list of the thirteen Models. When you select the Model from
the list, the program will insert an icon for that Model into the Models tab section. The
icon represents an “instance” of that Model and will have its own set of values for the
input data, and you can define any number of instances of a given Model in your
Study Folder, each with its own set of input data to represent a particular hazardous
event.
As shown in the illustration, the Phast Risk Example Study Study Folder contains eight
instances of one Model (the Vessel/Pipe Source Model), one instance of a second
Model (the Pool Fire Model), and one instance of a third Model (the Fireball Model).
“Model”: one instance of a particular type of calculation Model
In practice, people rarely use the term “instance” to refer to a given use of a particular
Model, and instead refer to the instance directly as a “Model”, so it would be more
typical to say that the Phast Risk Example Study Study Folder contains eight Vessel/Pipe
Source Models, one Pool Fire Model and one Fireball Model.
The Model icons are organised in a tree structure. The top level represents the entire
Study Folder, with the name Phast Risk Example Study, the next
level is the Study (named example), the third level contains
several Folders, and the fourth level contains the Models
themselves. You can create any number of Studies or Folders,
depending on how you want to organise your analysis.
Inserting a Model

You cannot place a Model icon under the Study Folder

itself, but only under a Study or Folder . To add a
Model at a particular point in the structure, select the Study or
Folder, and then select the appropriate Model from the Insert
menu as shown. You can also insert a Model by selecting the
Model from the Insert cascade at the top of the right-click
menu, or by selecting the icon for the Model from the toolbar.
The eight Models in the first section of the menu are those that can be used in the risk
calculations, and the six Models in the second section are those that can only be used
for consequence calculations.
The Weather Tab Section
The Weather tab section contains two folders: one
containing two Weathers that are representative of day
conditions, and one containing two Weathers that are
representative of night conditions. The name of each
weather gives the atmospheric stability category and the
wind speed that are set for it. It is recommended that

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 Chapter 1: Introduction

users give weathers and weather folders appropriate names as it helps when
combining the inputs later on.
In the illustration, the night weather folder appears with black text while the day weather
folder is greyed out – and this shows that the night weather folder and its two Weathers
are selected for the Night Run Row, which is the Row selected as the current Run Row.
When you perform the calculations for this Run Row, the program will run the
dispersion, effects and risk calculations twice for each Model, with a separate run and
set of results for each of the two weather conditions.
The concept of “the Current Run Row”
In Phast Risk, “the current Run Row” is the Run Row that is selected from the drop-
down list above the Study Tree pane.
In the illustration above, the Night Run Row is selected as the
current Run Row, and the night weather weather folder is shown with
black text. If you change the current Run Row to the Day Run Row,
you will see that the black text moves to the day weather folder.
The Parameters Tab Section
In Phast Risk, Parameters are background inputs
that are applied to all calculations and are not
specific to a particular Model.
Parameters are organised in Parameter Set folders.
Each Study Folder is created with a default Set, but
you can create additional Sets if you want to
process some Run Rows with different values for
the Parameters. In the Phast Risk Example Study Study
Folder, there is a single set called example
parameters, which is used by both Day and Night
Rows.

Green border to icon: shows use of default values

All of the icons in the example parameters Set have
green borders. The program uses this border to
show that all of the Parameters under that icon are
using the default values that are supplied with the program. If you change the value of
any of the Parameters then the green border around the icon will disappear. This
allows you to see at a glance which aspects of an analysis are using all-default values,
and which are using changed values.
The Materials Tab Section
The program is supplied with a set of System
Materials that contains full property data for more
than sixty materials. However, the Materials tab
section does not show icons for all of these materials,
but only for materials that have been selected in the
input data for the various Models in the Study
Folder, or for materials that you have added yourself
while working in the Material tab section.
There are three Materials icons in the Phast Risk Example Study Study Folder, all for
materials that are selected for Models in the analysis. Each icon has a green border,

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 Chapter 1: Introduction

which shows that all of the input fields for the material have the values set for that
material in the System Materials. You can change the values if you wish - e.g. to enter
different probit values for a toxic material – and if you make changes the green border
will disappear.
All of the icons in the Phast Risk Example Study Study Folder are for pure materials that
are supplied in the System Materials, but the program also allows you to add your own
materials and to define mixtures.

The Map Tab Section

The Map tab section allows you to set up map image and geographic data so that you
can view the regions and features affected by consequence results and risk results.
The map image is defined by the powerstation raster image, and you view the image by
selecting Map from the View menu. The Map Window will open in the area to the right
of the Study Tree pane, and you can use the options in the Map menu, the right-click
menu and the Map toolbar to zoom in and out, to move around in the Map Window,
and to control the display of the features of the window such as the scale bar and the
legend.

The Map tab section and the Map Window

You can close the Map Window by selecting Close All from the Window menu.

The Risk Tab Section

You use the Risk tab section to define populated
areas, sources of ignition, population categories, risk
ranking points, plant boundary and risk transect.
Population categories allow you to define different
colours and shadings for distinguishing between
populations on the Map (e.g. between residential,
commercial or industrial populations), and risk
ranking points are locations for which you want a
detailed report on the contribution of each
hazardous event to the risk at that location.
In the Phast Risk Example Study, there are separate sets
of population and ignition data for day and night.

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 Chapter 1: Introduction

The sets contain many of the same items, but the number of people in each population
is different for day and night, and the frequency of traffic on the road in also different.
There is a single set of risk ranking points. The program does not allow you to select
different sets for different Run Rows, and a given run of the risk calculations will
always use the same set of risk ranking points for all calculations. This treatment of
ranking points allows you to compare and combine risk-ranking results across
different Run Rows, and it is best to design a risk analysis to have a single set of points.

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 Chapter 1: Introduction

Viewing Input Data

The section above introduced the main types of input data and their organisation, and
this section describes how to work on the details of the input data.
Opening the Input Dialog for the Chlorine Rupture Model
Move to the Models tab section and double-click on the icon for the Model named
Chlorine Rupture. The Vessel/Pipe input dialog will open as shown below.
The dialog contains a large number of input fields organised over fifteen tab sections,
but many of these fields are relevant only to advanced modelling options (e.g. for a
sensitivity analysis), and you will typically only need to supply a small set of input
data when defining a Model for use in a risk analysis, as you will see in the next
chapter.

Input Dialog for the Chlorine Rupture Model

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 Chapter 1: Introduction

Getting Help on the Input Data

This tutorial does not attempt to describe every item on input data, but the program is
supplied with comprehensive online Help.
Every input dialog contains a Help button at the bottom right. When you click on this
button, the online Help will appear in a separate window, as shown.

The Help Window

The Help Window will be displaying a description of the current tab section, but you
can use the links inside the topic and the Contents, Index and Search tabs to reach any
topic in the Help system and gain a full understanding of the way that the input data
will be used in the calculations and the appropriate values that you should set for the
hazardous events that you want to model.
There are some tab sections that appear in the input dialog for more than one Model.
For example, the Material tab section is used for the Vessel/Pipe Source Model, the
User-Defined Source Model and the BLEVE Blast Model. The Help is written in order
to give full guidance for either Model, so there may be references in the Help to
features that are not currently relevant to you.
After you have finished exploring the input dialog, click on Cancel to close the input
dialog without saving any changes you might have made. If you wish, you can move
to the other tab sections and explore the input dialogs for other types of data.

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 Chapter 1: Introduction

The Consequence Calculations and Results

The program divides the calculations in two stages: consequence calculations, followed
by risk calculations. The consequence calculations determine the effect distances for the
various hazardous effects associated with the hazardous event and the risk calculations
determines the risk that these effects will have a fatal impact on people in the
surrounding area.
If you wish, you can run both calculations in a single operation, but this is not good
practice. Instead, you should first run the consequence calculations on their own, and
then look at the consequence results in detail and decide whether they are realistic or
whether you should adjust some of the input data to give a better representation of the
hazardous event (e.g. changing the bund data, or the release height or direction). This
assessment will require some experience, both of typical consequence results and of the
relevant input data in the program, but you will only gain this experience through
practice in reading the consequence results and in experimenting with input data (with
guidance from the online Help). If you do not have a thorough understanding of the
consequence results for your analysis, you will not be able to interpret the risk results
properly or make sound decisions on the basis of the results.
Running the Calculations
Move to the Run Row tab section, select Consequence only from the
Calculation Mode toolbar as shown, then select the Run Rows icon
and select Models from the Run menu.
The program will process the calculations for the ten Models and two Weathers that
are selected for the two Run Rows, showing the progress through the calculations.
The calculations will take several minutes to complete,
and when they are complete you will see that the names
of the Run Rows are shown in blue. This is the colour-
coding that the program uses to show that a Run Row or
Model has run successfully and has a complete set of
results.
You can also run the consequence calculations from the
Models tab section, and you should do this if you want
to run individual Models. When you perform the calculations in this way, the program
will use the set of Weathers and the set of Parameters that are selected for the current
Run Row
Viewing the Consequence Results
To view the consequence results, you must move to the
Models tab. Set the current Run Row to Night; the night
weather folder contains the Weather with the most stable
conditions (F 1.5 m/s), and this is likely to produce the
longest effect distances.
Viewing the Graphs for the Chlorine Rupture Model
Select the icon for the Model, and then select Graph from
the View menu or from the right-click menu or the
toolbars. A dialog will appear as shown; prompting you
to choose the weather conditions whose results you
want to view.

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 Chapter 1: Introduction

It can be useful to compare the results for several weathers, although there are some
features of the graphs that are only available if you are viewing the results for a single
weather. You can also compare results for different Models for a given Weather, either
by using the View Graph option on a Folder or a Study that contains the Models you
want to compare, or by moving to the Weather tab section in the Study Tree and using
the View Graph option on the Weather.
For this example, check the box by the night weather folder, which is the quickest way of
selecting both Weathers, and then click on OK. After a pause of a few seconds, the
Graph Window will open in the space to the right of the Study Tree pane.

The Graph Window

The Graph Window will usually contain many tab sections, each with a different type
of graph. The tab sections included for a particular Model will depend on the type of
Model (e.g. Vessel/Pipe Source Model or Fireball Model), on the type of material (toxic
or flammable), and on the details of the dispersion and effect behaviour (e.g. whether
or not liquid rainout occurs). The Chlorine Rupture Model has graphs for cloud
concentration and for toxic effects.
The first graph is of centreline concentration versus downwind distance. This will be
showing the results at the time at which the cloud footprint covers the greatest area,
which occurs at a different time for each weather.
The graph will initially appear to be showing that the concentration is zero, but this is
an effect of the scaling. You can change the
scaling by selecting Scale and Labels… from the
Graph menu or the right-click menu; a dialog
will appear, and if you turn off the automatic
scaling and change the maximum
concentration from the default value to, say,
1000 ppm you will get a better view of the
concentration results.
The first six tab sections all show the results in terms of concentration, but the Map and
Toxic tab sections allow you to view the results in terms of toxic effect.
When you first move to the Map tab section, the Map graph will be displaying
concentration results, but you can select Properties from the Graph menu or the right-click
menu to open the Graph Properties dialog and change the selection of the type of

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 Chapter 1: Introduction

results to display on the map; choose either the Outdoor Toxic Lethality or the Indoor Toxic
Lethality results to view the effect distances that will be modelled in the risk calculations.
The Map graph initially shows the effect zone with a northerly wind, but you can
choose Wind Direction from the Graph menu or the right-click menu to change the wind
direction.
In the Toxic tab section, the most informative graph is usually the Lethality graph as
shown, which shows the lethality level at the Height for calculation of effects (defined
in the Toxic Parameters) , plotted against downwind distance.

Toxic Lethality Results

For each Weather, the graph shows separate effects for a person outdoors and for a
person indoors. When calculating the effects indoors, the program models the build-up
of concentration inside the building, using representative ventilation data set in the
Toxic parameters tab section for the Model.
By default, the program will perform this separate toxic modelling for outdoor and
indoors effects, and will use these results in performing separate risk calculations for
people outdoors and people indoors. If you wish, you can perform the calculations for
outdoor effects only, and you do this by changing the setting for the Method for
handling Indoor/Outdoor risk in the General Risk Parameters.
Viewing the Reports for the Chlorine Rupture Model
Select the icon for the Model, and then select Report from the View menu or from the
right-click menu or the toolbars. After a pause of a few seconds, the Report Window
will open to the right of the Study Tree pane as shown. The Report Window will
probably hide the Graph Window, but you can use the options in the Window menu to
move between the windows.

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 Chapter 1: Introduction

The Report Window

As with the Graph Window, the Report Window will normally contain several types of
results, presented in different tab sections. A given tab section will present the results
for all of the weather conditions that have been processed for the Model and that are
selected for the current Run Row.
For the Chlorine Rupture Model, the first tab section is the Input tab section, which lists
the input data. The most important reports for understanding the behaviour of the
event are usually the Dispersion report and Commentary report. The Hazard Zones
report summarises the size of the various flammable effect zones, as they will be
modelled in the risk calculations, and the Outdoor Toxic and Indoor Toxic reports
summarise the toxic effect zones.
You can have any number of Graph Windows and Report Windows open at the same
time. After you have finished examining the results, you can use Close All from the
Window menu to close the windows.
Consequence Results for Flammable Models
If you view the results for one of the flammable releases (e.g. Butadiene Rupture), you will
not see separate results for outdoors and indoors. The modelling of indoor
concentration build-up is performed only for toxic effects, and the radiation
calculations do not take account of obstruction or shielding from buildings. When
modelling the risk produced by flammable releases, the program applies the same
effect-zones to people outdoors and to people indoors.

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 Chapter 1: Introduction

The Risk Calculations and Results

When you have finished examining the consequence results for the Models, you can
proceed to the risk calculations.
Running the Calculations
Move to the Run Row tab section and select either Risk only or Consequence and Risk from
the Calculation Mode toolbar. The names of the Run Rows will change from blue to
black, showing that the Run Rows do not have risk results. Select the Run Rows icon and
select Models from the Run menu or the toolbar. The risk calculations will run very
quickly, in a matter of seconds.
If you select Consequence and Risk as the Calculation Mode, the program will not repeat
the consequence calculations; it already has up-to-date results for all of the Models,
and will proceed immediately to the risk calculations. This time saving function which
does not repeat calculations with existing results is controlled by the menu item Run >
Smart Run, which is switched on by default.
You can only run risk calculations from the Run Row tab, not from the Models tab.
When you run risk calculations, you must process all of the Models that are selected for
the Run Row and cannot run the calculations for individual Models inside the
Selection.
The Results for Individual Risk
There are two forms of results that deal with the risk to an individual:
The Risk Contour Plot
Select the Run Rows icon, and then select Risk Contours from the View menu. When it first
opens, the risk contour plot will always be showing the risk to an individual outdoors,
as shown by the line Outdoor contours in the Legend for the plot.
To view the risk to an individual indoors, turn on
the Indoor option in the Risk cascade of the Map
menu or the right-click menu. For toxic releases,
this risk is calculated using the indoor effect
results, and since these have shorter effect
distances than for the outdoor effects the risk contours will move in slightly. For
flammable releases, the risk is calculated using the same effect results for indoor and
outdoor; if the contours were showing the results only for flammable releases, you
would see no difference between the two types of contour.
Indoor contours can be seen in the next page.
The level of risk to an individual indoors in the Sewage Works is shown as just below
10-5 per year, and the level of risk at the hospital is around 10-6 per year.

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 Chapter 1: Introduction

The Risk Contours

The Individual Risk Ranking Report

Select the Run Rows icon, and then select Individual Risk Ranking Report from the View menu.
A dialog will appear, prompting you to set the options for the report, and you should
click on OK to take the default settings. The Report Window will open, as shown in the
next illustration.

The Individual Risk Ranking Report

The Report shows the contribution that each Model makes to the risk at the Risk
Ranking Point – which is just outside the south-west corner of the main power station
building. The risk at this point comes mainly from the toxic releases, with some
contribution from the Pool Fire. All four toxic releases contribute to the risk, with the
greatest contribution from the liquid leak.

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 Chapter 1: Introduction

The Results for Societal Risk

The results for societal risk show the risk-distribution for the number of fatalities
caused by the hazardous events. They are presented in the form of a graph and of a
risk ranking report, as with the individual risk results.
The FN Curve
Select the Run Rows icon and then select FN Curves from the View menu. The results will
be displayed in a Graph Window, as shown.

The Combined FN Curve

The Graph Window contains two tab sections. The Combined FN Graph shows the
combined risk for all selected Run Rows, with factors applied to the risk that describe
the proportion of the year for which the conditions represented by the Run Row are
present. In the Phast Risk Example Study Study Folder, the factor for the Day Rows is set to
40%, and this has been used in calculating the frequencies for the Combined FN Graph.
The F-N Curve Graph, on the other hand, shows the full, un-factored results for each
selected Run Row.
The risk is very high, with some outcomes producing more than a thousand fatalities.
Most of these fatalities are experienced at the hospital, which has a day-time
population of over 3,000 and a night-time population of about 1,500, and which is well
within the effect zone of the chlorine releases of this example.
The factors are set in the Run Row dialog, which will be described in more detail in a
later chapter.
The Societal Risk Ranking Report
Select the Run Rows icon, and then select Societal Risk Ranking Report from the View menu. A
dialog will appear, prompting you to set the options for the report, and you should
click on OK to take the default settings.
The report shows the contribution that each Model makes to the societal risk. All of the
releases make some contribution to the risk, but the risk is dominated by the toxic
liquid leak and rupture.
You have now seen the main features of Phast Risk. When you are ready you should
proceed to Chapter 2, which takes you through the stages in setting up your own
analysis.

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 Chapter 2: Setting up your own Analysis

Chapter 2
Setting up your own Analysis

The Form of the Analysis

The next three chapters will guide you through the process of setting up a Study Folder
for performing risk calculations. The tutorial supplies all of the input values that you
will need to complete the analysis.
The Models Defined in the Analysis
The main aim of the analysis is to show you how you can define Models to represent
the most common types of hazardous event, and how to take into account the main
variables. The types of hazardous event that are considered in the analysis are as
follows:
• A rupture of a vessel containing a toxic material
• A pipework leak from the liquid side of a vessel containing a toxic material
• A pipework leak from the gas side of a vessel containing a toxic material
• The equivalent three releases for a vessel containing a flammable material
• The equivalent three releases from a tank-wagon containing a flammable
material, for a range of release-locations along the route of a railway track
inside the boundaries of the site.
• A fireball or BLEVE of a vessel as a result of fire impingement.
• A jet fire as a result of immediate ignition of a leak from a vessel.
If you wish, you can omit events, define different events, or change the input values in
order to define conditions that are more typical of your facility. However, if you do this
you will obtain results that are different from those that will be shown in this manual.
The Structure of the Analysis
The analysis is divided over three chapters. This chapter describes the process of
creating a new Study Folder and of setting up the Map data and the Weather data,
Chapter 3 describes the process of defining the Models and running the consequence
calculations, and Chapter 4 describes the process of defining population and ignition
data and running the risk calculations.

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 Chapter 2: Setting up your own Analysis

Creating a new Study Folder

To create a new Study Folder, select New from the File menu or the Toolbar. The
program will close the Phast Risk Example Study Study Folder and a new Study Folder will
begin to open before opening it will prompt you to save the study.
Saving the Study Folder
The File Save dialog will appear and you should locate the DNVUser folder (the default
location for saving Study Folder files), use the Create New Folder option to create a folder
with your name, and then save the new file to this folder with the name Tutorial and the
default file format *.psu.
Note: that using “Save As” in Phast Risk makes a backup of the study and does not
change the name of the current study open.
The Contents of a new Study Folder
New Study Folder files are not empty but will have some default data set up:
One Run Row
The default new Study Folder contains a Run Row with the name 1.
A Weather Folder containing three Weathers
The weathers are the same as those in the Phast Risk Example Study Study Folder,
combined in a single folder.
A Set of Default Parameters
As with the Phast Risk Example Study Study Folder, there is a set of parameters, all of
which are using the default values.
Auto Save
Phast and Phast Risk contain an auto save feature, which is switched off by default. It
is advisable to switch this utility on in order to recover work in the event of software or
operating system crashes.
With the Tutorial.psu study file open, from the menu choose Options > Preferences >
Installation and click to view the Autosave tab. Check the Autosave On box to activate the
auto save feature. Other options can be left default.

Setting up the Map Data

The tutorial uses a map of an area near two rivers, in a country which has a national
grid system. The image for this map is supplied with the program in the form of a *.tif
file. If you have an image file for the area around your facility, you might prefer to use
that instead.
Inserting the Raster Image
Image files that contain a description of each pixel in the image are known as raster
images, and most common image files are in this form, e.g. *.tif, *.bmp, *.gif files. The
program can also display map data taken from a GIS Database, where an image is
defined by describing the lines that form the image.
The process of inserting a raster image into a Study Folder is very different from the
process of inserting a connection to a GIS Database. This tutorial deals only with raster
images, and you should refer to the online Help for details of working with GIS
Databases.

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 Chapter 2: Setting up your own Analysis

The process of inserting the raster images involves several stages.

Ensure that there is a Raster Image set in the Map tab section
If the Map tab section does not already contain a Raster Image Set icon, select the Tutorial
icon at the top of the tab section, and use the Insert menu to insert a Set.
The Set is a folder for raster images, and you have to insert raster images inside such a
folder.
Insert a Raster Image inside the Set
Select the Set and then select Raster Image from the Insert menu. A dialog will appear,
and you must browse to locate the image file. The tutorial.tif file is located in the Examples
> Map folder for the installation of the program (which is typically under Program
Files\DNVS\PHAST_6_6_0_XXX). When you first browse to this folder you will not see any
files, since the list of File types is not set to *.tif by default.

Inserting a raster image

When you have selected a valid raster image file, the Placement Mode fields will
become enabled; these are options for specifying the map co-ordinates covered by the
image. Some files contain geo-reference data or header data that you can use to set the
co-ordinate data for the image, but the tutorial.tif file does not and the only option
available is the Interactive option, which is available for any raster image file.
Selecting a Co-ordinate System for the Map
When you click on OK in the Place dialog, a dialog called the “Co-ordinate system
wizard” will open; this is the first step in selecting a co-ordinate system for the
analysis. It is only essential to select a system if the Placement Mode is set to
Georeferenced or to By Header, or if you want to use a GIS database in the analysis.
When you are using the Interactive Placement Mode and will not be connecting to a
GIS database – which is the situation in this tutorial - you can click on Default in the
Wizard dialog and leave the co-ordinate system undefined.
The Wizard dialog contains a Help button, and this gives you a quick way of viewing an
overview of the user and definition of co-ordinate systems in Phast Risk.
Placing the Image in the Map Window
When you click on Cancel in the
Wizard dialog, there will be brief
pause and the Map Window will
then open to the right of the Study
Tree pane.
The cursor will be in the form of
crosshairs, and you must drag and
drop to place the image in the
window. This sets the initial values

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 Chapter 2: Setting up your own Analysis

for the map co-ordinates for the images, which you will set to the correct values in the
next step.
Setting the Co-ordinates and Size of the Image
Double-click on the tutorial icon to open the input dialog
for the image, move to the Geometry tab section, and set
the values shown. The origin for a map image is the top-
left corner (East (X) and North (Y) coordinates), and the
values are in the national co-ordinate system for the
country.

When you click on OK the image may disappear from the Map Window because it has
moved to a location beyond the scope of the window. Select Fit > All from the Map menu,
and the Map Window will change to display the area covered by the image; if the
menu bar does not include a Map option, click on the Map Window to make sure it is
selected, and the Map menu will appear in the menu bar.
Setting a Large Number of Significant Figures for Edit Dialogs
The co-ordinate values for the image are in the national co-ordinate system for the
country, and the values for the area covered by the map are six-digit numbers. By
default, input dialogs display only four significant figures of any number that you are
editing, and with this setting you will find it difficult to be sure that you have entered
the co-ordinates correctly.
To change the setting for the number of significant figures, select Preferences > General
from the Options menu and move to the Miscellaneous tab. The first field in the tab
section is the Number of significant figures for edit windows, and you should make
sure that this is set to six or more.
Click on OK to close the General Preferences dialog and return to the Map tab section.
Defining a Location Offset for the Facility
The program contains a feature called a Location Offset that allows you to define the
co-ordinates of a location on the plant or facility and then to place Models in relation to
this location, i.e. to work in a local or relative co-ordinate system. This makes the
location-data for Models easier to work with, since the co-ordinate values will be much
shorter than six digits.
For the tutorial, the
facility occupies the
long, narrow section of
land to the north and
west of The Village,
between the east bank of
the river and the road
that runs parallel to the
river, shown shaded
yellow in the illustration.
All locations within this
site are given relative to

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 Chapter 2: Setting up your own Analysis

the south-west corner of the facility, which is at 198938, 434101 in the national co-
ordinate system, using a local co-ordinate system that is rotated 50 degrees anti-
clockwise from north, as shown by the blue-shaded rectangle in the illustration.
To define this local co-ordinate system you use a Location Offset as follows:
Insert and Name the Location Offset
In the Map tab section, select the Tutorial icon at the top of the Study Tree, and then
select Location Offset from the Insert menu.
The icon initially has the name Location Offset. This is not very informative, so you
should select Rename from the right-click menu and change the name to Riverside.
Set the Co-ordinate Values for the Offset
Double-click on the icon and change the co-
ordinate values from the default values of zero
to those shown.
Selecting the Offset for the Run Row
In order to be able to use the local co-ordinate
system when giving the location of Models,
you must have that system selected for the
current Run Row when you are working on the
input data for the Model.
Move to the Run Row tab section and double-
click on the Run Rows icon to open the Run Rows dialog. This is the dialog that you use
to select the combination of data to use in the calculations for each Run Row.
To make the selection for the Offset, move to the Offset tab section inside the dialog,
and then change the selection of Location from None to Riverside, as shown below.

Selecting the Offset in the Run Row dialog

If you have more than one Offset defined in a Study Folder, you use this tab section to
choose between them for the various Run Rows. Having multiple Offsets can be useful
if you are assessing alternative locations for a new facility or equipment-item: define an
Offset for each location and then set up Run Rows with different Offsets selected, and
then you will be able to calculate and compare the risk for the alternative locations
without having to set up separate sets of Models with different locations.
Click on OK to close the Run Row dialog.

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 Chapter 2: Setting up your own Analysis

Setting up Weather Data for Day and Night

For this analysis, you will be performing separate calculations for day and night, as in
the Phast Risk Example Study Study Folder, and you will define and use separate Weather
folders for the two times of day.
Creating a Second Weather Folder
In the Weather tab section, select the Default Weathers folder, use the copy function, and
then select the Tutorial icon and use the paste function to create a copy of the folder.
The program will give the copy the name Default Weathers(1), and you should use the
Rename option in the right-click menu to change the name to Night, and then change the
name of the first folder to Day.
Defining Representative Daytime Weathers
All of the Weathers in the Night folder are suitable for night-time conditions so there are
no changes needed to that folder. However, for the Day Weathers you will replace the
highly-stable F 1.5m/s Weather with an unstable B 3 m/s Weather, since conditions are
less stable during the day than during the night.
Rename the F 1.5m/s Weather to B 3m/s, and then double-click on the icon to open the
input dialog and set the values shown in the Weather Data tab section. The other tab
sections take default values from the Parameters, and you can leave them with these
default values for this tutorial.

Replacing the highly-stable F 1.5m/s weather to B 3m/s

Click on OK to close the dialog.

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 Chapter 2: Setting up your own Analysis

Setting up Run Rows for Day and Night

To use the two sets of Weather data, you must
set up separate Run Rows for day and night.
Move to the Run Rows tab, and rename the
existing Run Row to Day. Then create a copy of
the Row, and name the copy Night.

Click on the Run Rows icon to open the Run Rows dialog,
then move to the Consequence tab section inside the
dialog and make the appropriate selection for Weathers
for each Row, as shown.
Next, click on the Night Run Row in the Name column.
This will make sure that the Row is selected, and that
the Weathers tab section of the Tree pane at the right of
the Run Row dialog is displaying the Night Weathers
folder, as shown.
Move to the Weathers tab section, where you should see
that the box beside each Weather is not checked,
meaning that none of the Weathers is currently selecting
for running. Check the box beside each Weather so that
they are all selected as shown in the illustration.

Saving the Settings You Have Made

Click on OK to close the Run Row dialog, and then choose Save from the File menu or
the toolbar to save your work on the Map data and the Run Row selections.
When you are ready you can proceed to the next chapter, which describes the process
of setting up the Models and performing the consequence analysis.

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 Chapter 3: Performing the Consequence Analysis

Chapter 3
Performing the Consequence Analysis

Defining the First Model: for a Toxic Rupture

In the Tutorial.psu Study Folder, move to the Models tab section. The first Model you will
define represents the rupture of a vessel containing a toxic material, which is one of
several Models dealing with a toxic material.
The vessel is a sphere with a radius of 3.37 m and volume of 120 m3 and a maximum
fill-level of 85%, containing chlorine at saturation conditions and ambient temperature.
The sphere is located near the centre of the site and is elevated 4 m above the ground.
There is no bund surrounding the sphere.
Insert a Folder to Group Toxic Releases
Select the Study icon and then select Folder from the Insert menu or the toolbar to insert a
folder. Use Rename from the Edit menu or the right-click menu (or press the F2 key), and
give the folder the name “Toxic”. You will place all of the Models that represent toxic
releases in this folder.
Turn on the Option to Insert Models on the Map
In the Options menu, select the option to Insert Models on Map. By default this option is
turned off, and when you insert a Model the icon will appear immediately in the Study
Tree. If you turn the option on, then the Model icon will not appear in the Study Tree
until you have clicked on the Map to set the location for the Model.
In this tutorial you will insert the Models on the Map in approximately the correct
location, and then correct the location as necessary in the input dialog.
Insert a Vessel/Pipe Source Model
Select the Toxic folder and then select Vessel or
Pipe Source from the Insert menu or the right-click
menu. The Map window will open if it is not
already open and the cursor will turn to
crosshairs, and you should click at a point near
the centre of the site as shown to place the
Model.
After you have clicked, an icon will be added to
the Study Tree, and a dot will appear on the
Map to show the location of the Model. Rename
the icon to Cl2 Rupture.
The icon will have a red border around it, showing that it does not have a full set of
input data. You will not be able to run the consequence calculations for the Model until
you have supplied values for all of the mandatory input fields, as will be described
below.
You use the Vessel/Pipe Source Model when you want to perform dispersion and
effects calculations for a release from containment and you want to use the program’s
in-built discharge calculations to determine the state of the material after expansion to
atmospheric pressure, which is the state required for the start of the dispersion
calculations.

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 Chapter 3: Performing the Consequence Analysis

The program contains a second Source Model which is called the “User Defined Source
Model”. This Model does not perform discharge calculations, but instead allows you to
specify directly the state of the material after expansion to atmospheric pressure. You
use it if you want greater control over the inputs to the dispersion and effect
calculations, as will be described later in this chapter.
Setting the Input Data
Double-click on the icon for the Model to open the input dialog.
All of the fields in the first tab section are blank, and those that are enabled have red
borders. A field with a red border is a mandatory field: you must supply a value for
such a field, and you will not be able to run the calculations for a Model that has any
mandatory fields unset.
This section describes each tab section in turn, including those that are not relevant to
this particular hazardous event. Click on the Help button to open the online Help if you
want further information at any point.
The Material Tab Section
To set the Discharge Material, click on the button with three dots to the right of the
Discharge Material field, and select CHLORINE from the list that appears. The list
contains all of the materials that are defined in the System Materials.
The vessel is a sphere with a volume of 120 m3. This Model will represent the vessel
with the maximum degree of filling, which is 85%. Select Volume as the method of
specifying the Inventory, and enter a value of 102 m3.
The chlorine is held under saturation conditions at atmospheric temperature. The
temperature will vary depending on the season and time of day, but for this Model a
value of 10oC will be used as representative. To set these Process Conditions, choose
Saturated Liquid from the first dropdown list and Temperature from the second dropdown
list, and set the Temperature to 10 degC, as
shown. When you move the cursor away
from the Temperature field the program
will calculate the saturation pressure for
this temperature and display it in the
Pressure field.
To define the process conditions for a material that is not held under saturation
conditions (e.g. a gas or a padded liquid), you must select both Temperature and Pressure
from the lists and give values for both.
The Risk Data Tab Section
This tab section contains data that are used in the risk calculations but not in the
consequence calculations. If the Calculation Mode is set to Consequence only this tab
section will not appear in the dialog, and you will be able to run the consequence
calculations even if these values are unset. However, it is more efficient to enter all of
the data for a Model in a single operation, rather than returning to supply the risk data
after you have run the consequence calculations.

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 Chapter 3: Performing the Consequence Analysis

Set the Event Frequency to 10-5 per year, as shown. You can use scientific notion when
entering values. The other fields in the tab section are all disabled for this Model
because they are not applicable to a material that has only toxic properties and no
flammable properties.

Inserting frequency data

The Scenario Tab Section

You use this tab section to specify
the type of hazardous event you
want to model. The range of types
available will depend on the
process conditions you have
specified.
There is only one Scenario Type
available for modelling the
rupture of a pressurised vessel;
this is Catastrophic Rupture,
which is selected by default. The other scenarios are either longer-duration releases, or
applicable only to insulated tanks.
The vessel is out of doors, so you can leave the Outdoor / In-Building fields with the
default selection of Outdoor. If you select In-Building Release, the program will
model the build-up of concentration inside the building and the dispersion calculations
will start with the state of the plume as it is released from the ventilation system.

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 Chapter 3: Performing the Consequence Analysis

The other fields in the tab section are not relevant to a rupture scenario. You can take
the default settings for all of the fields in this tab section.
The Pipe Tab Section
All of the fields in this tab section are disabled when the scenario is set to Rupture.
They are relevant only to the Line Rupture, Disc Rupture, Relief Valve and Long
Pipeline scenarios, as you will see later.
The Vessel Tab Section
All of the fields in this tab section are disabled when the scenario is set to Rupture. For
all of the other scenarios, some of the fields in the tab section will be enabled, with the
combination depending on the scenario as you will see later.
The Location Tab Section
There are no mandatory fields in this tab section. The Elevation has a default value of
1m, taken from the System Parameters, but you should set this to 7.37m, which is the
elevation of the centre of the sphere above the ground.
If there are particular locations that you are interested in, you can enter values for the
Distances; these results for these distances appear in the Summary Report. For this
tutorial, you only need to set the Elevation in this tab section.
The Geometry Tab Section
By default, the method of setting the Release Coordinates
will be set to Absolute (i.e. in the national system), and
the value will be 0, 0. To work in the local co-ordinate
system defined by the Riverside Offset, change the method
to Relative as shown in the illustration, and set the eastern
co-ordinate to 450 m, and the northern to 960 m.
The Bund Data Tab Section
If there is a bund around the vessel and you want to take this into account in the
modelling of pool-spreading and evaporation, you can check the Bund exists box and
enter a description of the bund. For this sphere there is no bund, so you can leave the
tab section with the default values.
The Indoor/Outdoor Tab Section
If all of the fields in this tab section are disabled then the scenario is a catastrophic
rupture outdoors. Some of the fields are enabled for the longer-duration scenarios as
you will see later, while others are enabled for in-building releases.
Flammable Tab Section
The fields in this tab section are disabled when the material is toxic only. For a
flammable release, they allow you to set variables for jet fire and explosion modelling.
The Toxic Parameters Tab Section
The fields in this tab section are used in modelling the build-up of toxic concentration
inside a building, and the exposure of a person inside the building. For this tutorial,
you can leave all of the fields with default values.
The TNT, Multi Energy and Baker Strehlow Tab Sections
The fields in these tab sections are disabled when the material is toxic only, and are not
used in the explosion modelling for a Source Model.

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The Discharge Parameters Tab Section

The fields in this tab section are always enabled, and take their default values from the
System Parameters. They are used in the discharge modelling for the Line Rupture,
Disc Rupture and Relief Valve scenarios, so are not relevant to this Model.
A Summary of the Input Data
The input process involves examining a large number of input fields, but the number
of values that you have to enter in order to complete the data for this Model is small, as
shown in the table below:
Tab Section Input Field Value
Material Discharge Material Chlorine
Inventory 102 m3
Process Conditions Saturated Liquid at 10oC.
Risk Data East Co-ordinate 450 m (relative)
North Co-ordinate 960 m (relative)
Event Frequency 10-5 per year
Location Elevation 7.37 m

The default scenario for a Vessel/Pipe Source Model is a catastrophic rupture out of
doors, so there is no need to change any settings in the Scenario tab section for this
particular Model.
If you have made all of these settings, the input data for the Model are now complete,
and you can click on OK to close the dialog. You should see that the icon no longer has
a red border, showing that it has a full set of input data.
After entering data it is advisable to click File>Save to write the data changes to disk.
Run the Calculations and View the Results
Set the current Run Row to the Night Run Row, since this has
the most stable weather conditions and will give the longest
dispersion distances. Then select the Model and select Run Model from either the Run
menu or the toolbar.
When the calculations are complete, view the graphs for all of the weathers.
You will see that there is no Pool Vaporisation tab in the Graph Window, which means
that the liquid in the release did not rain out; if you want more information about the
behaviour of the liquid droplets in the cloud, you should view either the Commentary
Report or the Dispersion Report.
To see the effect distances that will be used in the risk calculations, move to the Toxic
tab and then view the Lethality graph. The greatest effect distances are for the F 1.5
m/s weather, with a distance of about 2.5 km to an outdoor lethality level of 10%. The
shortest downwind effect distances are for D 5 m/s indoors, which reaches
approximately 60% of the distance of F 1.5 m/s for a lethality level of 10%.

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Defining the Second Release: Toxic Liquid from Pipework

The second release is from the same chlorine sphere, but the hazardous event is the
rupture of a one-inch liquid line attached to the bottom of the sphere, where the initial
liquid head will be 4.6 m. The line runs 4 m vertically downwards to 10 cm from the
ground, then 5 m horizontally to an isolation valve; the rupture is assumed to occur
just before the isolation valve.
Copy the First Model
Much of the input data for the vessel rupture is also applicable to the pipework failure,
so you can use copy and paste from the Edit menu or the right-click menu to create a
copy of the Rupture Model, also in the Toxic folder. Give the copy the name Cl2 Liquid
Pipework.
Setting the Input Data
Open the input dialog and set the input data as follows:
Material and Risk Data Tab Sections
Leave these tab sections with the same values as for the rupture.
The material and process conditions are the same as for the rupture, and for this
tutorial the location and event frequency will be taken as being the same. For pipework
failures, the frequency represents a specific length of pipework, e.g. the length between
the sphere and an isolation value.
Scenario Tab Section
Set the Scenario Type to Line Rupture, and leave the Phase to be Released with the
default value of Liquid.
The line rupture scenario models the full-bore rupture of pipework attached to a
vessel, and the discharge calculations take into account the effect of friction in the flow
from the vessel to the point of rupture. To model a release from the body of the vessel,
with no frictional losses in the discharge, you would choose the Leak scenario.
When the vessel contains saturated liquid, you will be offered a choice of release-phase
for the line rupture scenario: a vapour release from the top of the vessel, or a liquid
release from the bottom of the vessel. The list of phases includes “two-phase”, but this
is only enabled for the disc rupture and relief valve scenarios, for modelling over-
filling of the vessel.
Pipe Tab Section
The Pipe Length is the length
of pipework between the
vessel and the point of
rupture, and you should set it
to 9 m as shown.
To set the Internal Diameter to one inch, click on “mm”
to the right of the field, and then select “in” from the list
of units that appears as shown. You can then enter the
diameter directly in inches, rather than having to
perform the conversion yourself into the default unit of
mm.

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 Chapter 3: Performing the Consequence Analysis

Leave the pipe roughness with the default value taken from the System Parameters.
The number of valves is used in the modelling of frictional losses, and you can leave
them as zero.
The other fields in the tab section are relevant only to the long pipeline scenario, and
are all disabled for the line rupture scenario.
Vessel Tab Section
For the line rupture scenario and most
of the other scenarios that involve a
continuous release, the Time Varying
Release option will be enabled in the
Vessel tab section.
If you do not check this option, then the
release will be modelled with the initial
release rate, and the duration will be
the time required to drain the inventory
at this initial rate. This will normally
give conservative results in the
consequence and risk calculations.
If you select the time-varying option,
then you must supply information
about the dimensions of the vessel. The
discharge calculations will model the
effect of the release on conditions in the
vessel and the way that these
conditions and the release rate change
over time, and will represent these
time-varying results either with a single
rate (e.g. an average rate, or a rate at a
particular time) or with a series of rates,
depending on your selection for the Rates versus time.
For this release, you will perform an initial run of the discharge calculations with the
time-varying modelling selected, then examine the results and decide on the most
appropriate way to represent the behaviour for the purposes of the risk analysis.
Set the Liquid Head to 4.6 m, select the Time Varying Release option, set the Tank
Type to Spherical, the Height of Discharge to zero, and the Diameter to 6.74 m. Leave
the Rates versus time set to the default selection of Average rate with an averaging
time of 3600 s; you can return to make a final selection after you have viewed the
discharge results.
Location Tab Section
Set the Elevation to 0.1 m. With this setting, the liquid droplets will probably not
evaporate inside the cloud, and will probably rain out and form a vaporising pool.
Geometry Tab Section
In reality, the release-location would be offset by a few metres from the centre of the
sphere. However, this difference is insignificant compared with the effect distances for
chlorine and can be ignored. Leave this unchanged.

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Bund Data Tab Section

Leave this unchanged, with no bund specified.
Indoor/Outdoor Tab Section
For a continuous release scenario such as line rupture you must specify the Direction
of the release. Make sure that Horizontal is selected from the list, since this is the correct
setting for this type of unobstructed rupture of horizontal pipework.
The list of directions includes a second horizontal option: Horizontal Impingement. You
should select this option if the release is in a congested area and the release is likely to
impinge on a wall or other equipment; the program will reduce the momentum of the
release, which will reduce the amount of air mixed into the jet during the initial stages.
Discharge Parameters
There is one bend in the 9 m of pipework, so you can set the Frequency of Bends to
0.11 per m.
This completes the input data for this stage, and you can click on OK to close the input
dialog.
Running the Discharge Calculations
Select the Model and then select Run Discharge from the Run menu, the right-click menu
or the toolbar. This will run the discharge calculations alone, without performing the
dispersion and effects calculations.
The calculations may take several minutes, depending on the speed of your machine.
Time-varying discharge calculations can be quite time-consuming, and it is usually
best not to perform these calculations during the risk analysis itself, but to perform
initial calculations and then choose representative discharge results.
When the results are complete, view the reports and move to the TV Discharge Report.
The rate drops by less than 3% in two hours of release, so the time-varying behaviour
can be ignored for this release. There are two options for bypassing the time-varying
discharge modelling in this situation:
1: Use the Averaged Discharge Results to Create a User-Defined Source Model
When you performed the discharge calculations,
the program calculated the average rate over the
first 3600 s, and this is the representative rate
given in the Discharge Report. If you decide that
you want to use this average rate rather than the
initial rate, you should select the Model and
then select Create Source from the Edit menu or the
right-click menu.
The program will show a list of the weather
conditions for which you performed the
discharge calculations and for which it has results, and when you select one of these
weathers the program will create a User-Defined Source Model with the name
Calculated Discharge, as shown.
The User-Defined Source Model has many of the same tab sections as the Vessel/Pipe
Model, but instead of the Scenario and Vessel tab sections it has a Discharge tab section
in which you specify the discharge rate and conditions directly, since the User-Defined
Source Model does not perform any discharge modelling itself. The Calculated Discharge

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Model will be created with Discharge data taken from the averaged results from the
Liquid Pipework Model, but you can edit these values if you choose.
2: Edit the Model and Deselect Time-Varying Release
This is the simplest
method for bypassing
the time-varying
discharge modelling if
you decide that you
want to use the initial
rate to represent the entire release, and this is the method that will be used for this
tutorial. The discharge calculations for this Model will run much more quickly with the
time-varying option turned off.
After this adjustment, the final set of input data for this Model can be summarised as
follows, not including the values that are the same as those for the rupture model:
Tab Section Input Field Value
Scenario Scenario Type Line Rupture
Phase Released Liquid
Pipe Pipe Length 9m
Internal Diameter 1 inch
Vessel Time-Varying Release? Not selected
Tank Head 4.6 m
Location Elevation 0.1 m
Discharge Parameters Frequency of Bends 0.11 per m

The default direction for a line rupture scenario is Horizontal, so there is no need to
change any settings in the Indoor/Outdoor tab section for this particular Model.
Run the Consequence Calculations and View the Results
Set the current Run Row to the Night Run Row, since this has the most stable weather
conditions and will give the longest dispersion distances. Then select the Model and
select Run Model from either the Run menu or the toolbar.
When the calculations are complete, view the graphs for all of the weathers. You will
see that there is a Pool Vaporisation tab in the Graph Window, which means that the
liquid in the release did rain out. If you view the reports and look at the Commentary
Report for all weathers, you will see that rainout fraction is only about 1% to 2% , so
the formation and behaviour of the pool will have little effect on the dispersion or toxic
effects.
To see the effect distances that will be used in the risk calculations, move to the Toxic
tab and then view the Lethality graph. The greatest effect distances are for the F 1.5
m/s weather outdoors, with a distance of 900 m to a lethality level of 10%, which is
approximately a third of the distance reached by the catastrophic rupture. The least
stable night-time condition, D 5 m/s, reaches only 350 m for 10% lethality outdoors.

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Defining the Third Model: Toxic Vapour from Pipework

The vapour release is the rupture of a two-inch pipe attached to the top of the sphere.
The line runs 3.4 m horizontally, then vertically downwards, and the rupture is
assumed to occur 1 m from the ground.
Create the Model as a copy of the Liquid Pipework Model, rename the copy to Vapor
Pipework, and change the input data as follows:
Tab Section Input Field Value
Scenario Phase Released Vapour
Pipe Pipe Length 13 m
Internal Diameter 2 inch
Location Elevation 1m
Indoor/Outdoor Direction Down – Impinging on the Ground
Discharge Parameters Frequency of Bends 0.08 per m

When the phase is set to Vapour in the Scenario tab section, the Building Wake Effect
fields will become enabled. The sphere is in an open area so building-wake effects are
not relevant to this release, and you can leave these options unchecked.
The release rate from the two-inch vapour line is similar to that from the one-inch
liquid line, and the two pipework releases give very similar effect distances.

Defining Three Flammable Releases

There is a propane sphere at the far north of the site, at 175 m east and 2250 m north in
the co-ordinate system for the site. The propane sphere has the same dimensions as the
chlorine sphere and the same design of pipework, and is also operating under
saturation conditions at atmospheric temperature.
Setting the Input Data
You can define the rupture and the two pipework failures by copying the three toxic
Models and simply changing the selection of discharge material and the eastern co-
ordinates.
Copying the Models
Select the Toxic folder, copy and paste it, and name the copy Flammable. Change Cl2 in
the name of each Model to C3.
Changing the Material Selection
Open the input dialog, click on the button with three dots to the right of the Discharge
Material field, and change the selection from CHLORINE to PROPANE. The list of
materials is arranged alphabetically, and you can move quickly to PROPANE by clicking
in the list and then typing “P”, which will take you to the first material with this initial
letter.
When you return to the Materials tab section you will see that the program has
recalculated the saturation pressure at 10oC and also the mass for the inventory.
Risk Tab Section
You will see that some fields are enabled in the Risk Data tab section that were
disabled for the equivalent toxic Model, all dealing with the modelling of flammable
effects in the risk calculations.

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 Chapter 3: Performing the Consequence Analysis

One of the most important of these fields is the

Probability of immediate ignition. There are
several options available as shown for setting
the immediate ignition probability, including
the option to specify a value directly.
The program is supplied with three sets of probabilities from the Dutch Purple Book:
one set for stationary equipment such as the propane sphere, and separate sets for road
tankers and rail tank wagons. The default method is Stationary – use material reactivity, so
you do not need to make any changes to this setting for the three releases from the
propane sphere.
Changing the Location
In the Geometry tab section, change the co-ordinates to the values shown.

Geometry Tab Section

Running the Consequence Calculations and viewing the Results

You can run the consequence calculations for all
three flammable Models at once: set the Run
Row to Night, then select the Flammable folder and
use the Run Models option.
You can also view the results for all three Models
at once. Select the Flammable folder and then
select View Graphs. A Plot Setup dialog will
appear, prompting you for the Weather for
which you want to view results. When you are
viewing results for multiple Models you can only
choose a single Weather, so the Weathers have
radio buttons beside them, whereas they have
check boxes beside them when you are viewing
results for a single Model. Select the F 1.5 m/s
Weather, which should give the greatest effect
distances for dispersion.
The Graph Window contains tab sections for Concentration Graphs, as with the toxic
Models, but it contains Jet Fire, Fireball and Flash Fire tab sections instead of the Toxic
tab section. The propane releases do not produce any liquid rainout, so there are no
Pool Fire tab sections.
The main features of the graphs are described below.
Jet Fire Graphs
The Jet Fire tab section contains three graphs, which are presenting results for the two
pipework failures. First graph shows the radiation level at the height for calculation of

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effect (set in the flammable parameters), plotted against distance downwind. The
second graph shows the Intensity Radii to a radiation level set in the System
Parameters, and the other graph shows Lethality Radii to a lethality level of 1%. The
maximum downwind effect distance shown in these graphs is about 28 m, which is the
distance for 1% lethality for the liquid release.
Fireball Graphs
The Fireball tab section also contains three Graphs, which are presenting results only
for the rupture. The maximum downwind effect distance is 290 m, to a lethality level of
1%.
The Fireball Lethality Radii Graph shows the results for a range of lethality levels
between 100% and 1%, which is different from the Jet Fire Lethality Radii Graph which
showed results for a single lethality level for the two pipework releases. This difference
illustrates an important aspect of the way that graphs work in the program: if a given
graph is displaying results for more than one Weather or Model, then it will give
results for a single effect-level, whereas if the graph is displaying results for a single
Weather and Model, then it will be able to give results for more than one effect level (if
more than one level has been calculated). This means that if you want to view graphs
that show the full set of effect levels for a given Model, you must view the graphs for a
single Weather at a time.
Flash Fire Graph
The Flash Fire Graph shows the zone for the cloud at the time that it covers the
maximum area. For the rupture, this gives a maximum downwind effect distance of
about 350 m to 10,000 ppm, whereas for the two pipework releases this gives a distance
of 75 m to the same concentration. 10,000 ppm is 50% of the LFL, which is the fraction
set by default in the Flammable Parameters as the boundary of the flash fire effect
zone.

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Flammable Releases from a Rail Tank Wagon

The propane is delivered to the facility by tank wagon from a marshalling yard 10 km
to the south. The deliveries take place once a week, involving two tank wagons, and
are always during the day and never at night. The wagons are 10.6 m in length, 2.6 m
in diameter with a volume of 54 m3, are raised 0.5 m above the ground, and are
delivered with a fill-level of 80%. The propane is under the same conditions as in the
sphere: under saturation conditions at atmospheric temperature (taken as 10oC).
There are many hazardous events that could be modelled for the tank wagons,
including leaks during the unloading process. This tutorial will consider only releases
that occur while the tank wagons are in transit inside the site. The railway track inside
the site runs from the south-west corner along the west side of the site to the unloading
point 100 m south of the propane sphere. The releases that will be modelled are a
rupture, a one-inch leak from the liquid side of the tank wagon, and a one-inch leak
from the vapour side.
Inserting a Route Model
The hazardous events may occur at any point along this track, and the program
contains a special Model called the Route Model for performing risk calculations for
such events.
You will define the events for the tank wagon by copying and editing the Models for
the propane sphere, so start by creating a copy of the Flammable Folder and name the
copy Tank Wagon. The two one-inch leaks from the tank wagon are not from pipework
but from the body of the tank, so change “Pipework”
to “Leak” in both names.
Next, select the Study and then select Route from the
Insert menu to create the structure as shown. Each
Route Model is created with a Model Group folder
underneath it. You can insert Source Models, Fireball
Models and Pool Fire Models into this folder, as
appropriate to define the group of hazardous events
that you want to model throughout the transport route.
For this Route Model, you will be using the Models in
the Tank Wagon folder, and you can simply drag the Tank
Wagon folder onto the Model Group folder.
When you perform the drag operation, a red border will
appear around the Model Group icon showing that the
Models inside it have incomplete data. A Model inside a
Model Group folder requires an additional item of input data,
and this is not yet set for these Models.

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Completing the Input Data

As well as supplying the additional item of input data, you will need to make changes
for the differences in dimensions between the propane sphere and the tank wagon.
For the Rupture Model
Open the input dialog and set the data as follows:
Tab Section Input Field Value
Material Inventory 43.2 m3
Risk Data Event Probability 0.1
Probability of Transport – Tank Wagon
Immediate Ignition
Location Elevation 1.8 m

The Event Probability is the additional item of input data, replacing the Event
Frequency that is required when the Model is used outside a Route Model. The Event
Probability is the relative probability that a release from the tank wagon at a given
location on the route is a rupture rather than any other type of hazardous event. For
this tutorial it is assumed that 10% of events are ruptures.
A frequency for the hazardous event is still required for the risk modelling, but you
define this elsewhere in the Route Model, as you will see later.
You may also have noticed that the Release Co-ordinate fields greyed out in the
Geometry tab section. You define these by defining the rail route, as you will also see
later.
For the Liquid Leak Model
Open the input dialog and set the data as follows:
Tab Section Input Field Value
Material Inventory 43.2 m3
Risk Data Event Probability 0.6
Probability of Transport – Tank Wagon
Immediate Ignition
Scenario Scenario Type Leak
Hole Diameter 1 inch
Vessel Tank Head 1.95 m
Location Elevation 0.5 m
Indoor/Outdoor Direction Down – Impinging on the
Ground

For a release from the body of a vessel rather than from attached pipework, you should
set the Scenario Type to Leak. This will give a larger discharge rate since there are no
frictional losses during the flow to the leak-location. For the leak scenario, you specify
the leak-size in the Scenario tab section.
The leak is assumed to be at the bottom of the tank, which is the most conservative
assumption for the tank head and the duration.

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For the Vapour Leak Model

Open the input dialog and set the data as follows:
Tab Section Input Field Value
Material Inventory 43.2 m3
Risk Data Event Probability 0.3
Probability of Transport – Tank Wagon
Immediate Ignition
Scenario Scenario Type Leak
Hole Diameter 1 inch
Location Elevation 2.45 m
Indoor/Outdoor Direction Angled from Horizontal
Angle 30 degrees

The leak is assumed to be just above the liquid level.

Running the Calculations and Viewing the Results
Set the current Run Row to Day – since the transport takes place only during the
daytime – and run the calculations for all three Models. When the calculations are
complete, view the graphs for each Model in turn, selecting all of the Weathers that
have been processed for the Model, and then examine the fire results.
The rupture gives fireball effect distances of about 190 m for a lethality level of 1%, and
flash fire effect distances between about 230 m and 380 m to 50% of the LFL.
The liquid leak gives jet fire and late-pool fire effect distances of about 25 m and 70 m,
respectively, for a lethality level of 1%. Flash fire effect distances are up to about 137 m
to 50% of the LFL.
The vapour leak gives jet fire effect distances around 12 m, and flash fire effect
distances up to about 10.5 m to 50% of the LFL.
You should take these effect distances into account when defining the release co-
ordinates, which is described in the next stage.
Defining the Route Inside the Site
You define the rail route by drawing it on the map. Select Map from the View menu to
open the Map window if it is not already open, and use the Pan and Zoom options in the
Map menu or the toolbar until you can clearly see the area covered by the site. You will
see a dot representing the releases from the chlorine sphere near the centre of the site,
and a dot representing the releases from the propane sphere near the north of the site.
Drawing the first Route Segment as a Polyline
The first section of the route inside the site can be represented well using a polyline.
Select the Route Model , and then select Route Segment Polyline from the Insert menu.
The other types of route segment available are Route Segment Line and Route Segment Arc,
and you will use the former for the second part of the route, which is a straight line.
The cursor will turn to cross-hairs. You must click on the map at a point near the south-
west corner of the site to place the start of the route, then click again to place the next
point of the route, and then double click at a point about 600 m from the propane
sphere to place the end of this segment. A polyline can have as many points as
required to align the polyline to the intended route on the map. If a mistake is made,
delete the route segment entry in the study tree and insert a new route segment
polyline to start drawing it again.

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The illustration shows the appearance of

the map window just before the third
click to place the end of the segment..
The program will also insert an icon for
the segment under the Route Model, and
you should name this S1: polyline. The icon
will have a red border, showing that you
need to supply some input data for it, but
you will do this in the next stage, after
you have finished drawing the other
segment.
Drawing a Line Segment along the Canal
The next part of the route is straight, and
is best represented with a line segment.
Select the insert option for Route Segment Line, and then move the cursor to
near the end of the first segment. When you approach the end of the line, the
cursor will change to “snap to end” mode as shown, displaying an icon of a
diagonal line next to a small square. Click when the cursor is in this mode,
and the program will place the start of the second segment in the same location as the
end of the first segment, allowing you to make a continuous
line.
After you have placed the start of the line segment, move the
cursor to about 100 m south of the propane sphere, and then
click to place the end of the line segment. The program will
place an icon for the segment under the Route Model, and you
should name it S2: line.
Completing the Input Data for the Segments
Open the input dialog for S1: Polyline,
which will appear as shown.
Spacing of Events
The program will model the same set of
hazardous events at regular intervals
along the segment, where the interval is
set by the value for Spacing of events.
You should set the spacing to be less
than the minimum effect distance for
the group of hazardous events, since
this will ensure that the effect zones
from adjacent failure-locations overlap,
giving the smooth distribution of risk
along the route that would be observed
in reality.

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For the three Models in the Model Group folder, the minimum effect distance is around 12
m for the vapour jet fire. However, this is significantly shorter than the next-smallest
effect distance, which is 70 m for the liquid jet fire. Setting a spacing of less than 12 m
would mean that a large number of failure-locations would be modelled in the risk
calculations – more than necessary for the liquid and rupture Models – and it would
make the calculations relatively slow.
For a first run of the risk calculations it is acceptable to set a relatively large spacing in
order to decrease the run times, which will be 50 m for this tutorial. If the large spacing
is producing visible distortions in the risk contour results (i.e. “bumps” in the contours
every 50 m), then it may be necessary to reduce the spacing and rerun the calculations.
Failure Frequency
You can either specify the total failure frequency for the segment, or give the frequency
for a given length, e.g. per km. For this tutorial, set the Frequency to 10-5, select the Per
supplied length option, and set the Length to 1000 m.
Selection of Model Group
You can define any number of Model Groups under a given Route Model, and you
must use the dropdown list to select the Group that you want to model at each failure-
location for the current Segment.
There is only one Group for this Route Model, but you must still select it from the list
in order to complete the input data.
If you move to the Geometry tab, you will see the co-ordinates for the three points that
you placed when drawing the segment. You can use this to fine-tune the route after
placing the segment, but that is not necessary for this tutorial.
Click on OK to close the dialog, and then enter the same values for the other segment to
complete the input data for the Route Model.

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Defining Fire-Only Events

The program allows you to model a specific immediate-ignition effect on its own,
separated from any modelling of dispersion and delayed-ignition effects.
To model jet fire effects you must use either the Vessel/Pipe Source Model or the User-
Defined Source Model, define the appropriate continuous release scenario (e.g. a leak
scenario or a line rupture scenario), and set the probability of immediate ignition to
one in the Risk Data tab section.
To model fireball effects and pool fire effects you should use the Fireball Model and
Pool Fire Model rather than the Source Models, since the Fire Models contain features
that give you increased control over the modelling of the flame.
For this tutorial you will define a jet fire and a fireball. The jet fire is produced by the
line rupture of the two-inch vapour line from the top of the propane sphere, with a
failure location in the mid-point of the elevated horizontal section. The fireball is
produced by catastrophic rupture of the propane sphere under flame impingement.
Defining the Horizontal Jet Fire
Create a folder, name it Fires, and then copy and paste the Vapour Pipework Model from
the Flammable folder into the Fires folder and name the copy Jet Fire. Open the input
dialog and set the data as follows:
Tab Section Input Field Value
Risk Data Probability of Immediate Ignition Specify directly
Probability 1
Pipe Pipe Length 1.7 m
Location Elevation 10.8 m
Indoor/Outdoor Direction Horizontal
Discharge Parameters Frequency of Bends 0

Zero frequency of bends is the default value, and the quickest way of restoring a field
to the default value is to delete the previous value. The field will then display the
default value and will have a green border, allowing you to see at a glance that the
value is the default.
Defining the Fireball
Select the Fires folder, select the option to insert a Fireball Model, and click on the Map
on the dot at the north of the site that represents the propane sphere. Then open the
input dialog and set the data as follows:
Tab Section Input Field Value
Material Material PROPANE
Burst Pressure 8.57 barg
Risk Data Event Frequency 10-5 per year

Fireball Shape Released Mass 52.4e3 kg

Mass Vapour Fraction 0.25
Geometry East Location (relative) 175 m
North Location (relative) 2250 m

The Burst Pressure is 60% greater than the normal operating pressure and is used in
calculating the surface emissive power of the fireball.

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The Fireball Shape tab section gives you the choice between using a correlation to
obtain the radius, duration and emissive power, or entering your own values.
The dialog contains three other further tab sections: the Radiation Data, Contour Data
and Geometry tab sections. The effect distances calculated for different radiation
intensities and radiation lethality levels are used in the risk calculations. Furthermore,
if you want to obtain the radiation level at a particular point or along a particular line
or on a particular plane, you can define the point or line or plane in Radiation and
Contour Data tabs; the results will appear in the consequence results only, and will not
be used in the risk calculations.
Running the Calculations and Viewing the Results
Select the Fires folder and run the calculations, and then view the graphs, selecting the
D 5m/s weather.
The jet fire produces only a radiation level of 4 kW/m2 and any ellipses for lethality
levels of 1% or greater. By default, the effects are measured at ground level, and the jet
is nearly 10 m from the ground.
The fireball results give slightly larger effect distances than for the Rupture Model under
the Flammable folder, with a distance of 310 m for 1% lethality compared with 290 m.
This shows the effect of the higher vessel pressure used in the Fireball Model to model
failure under flame impingement, whereas the Rupture Model considered a rupture
under normal operating conditions which then had a probability of igniting
immediately and giving fireball effects.

Proceeding to the Risk Calculations

You have now completed your work in the Models tab section of the Study Tree, which
completes this chapter of the tutorial. You should save the Study Folder at this point,
and proceed to the next chapter whenever you are ready. In the next chapter you will
work in other tab sections to set up the input data for the individual risk calculations
and then run the calculations.

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 Chapter 4: Performing the -Risk Calculations

Chapter 4
Performing the Risk Calculations

Work Required on Several Types of Input Data

For the consequence analysis you were able to work entirely in the Models tab section,
but to perform the risk calculations you will need to work in several tab sections:
The Run Row tab section
The default new Study Folder is set up with most of the Run Row selections relevant to
this tutorial already defined. However, you will need to define different model
selections for day and night since the propane deliveries by tank wagon do not take
place at night.
You will work in the Run Row tab section when running the calculations and viewing
the results.
The Weather tab section
You work in the Weather tab section to define wind rose probability data for each set
of weather data. The default new Study Folder is supplied with some dummy wind
rose data which you will use for this tutorial, but you should always check the data
before starting the calculations.
The Parameters tab section
You will set up a separate set of Parameters for day and for night.
The Risk tab section
For this tutorial, you will set up some simple population data for day and night, define
an ignition source, and define some risk ranking points in order to obtain details of the
contributions to individual risk.
The sections below describe the work for each tab section in turn.

Defining Model Selections for Day and Night Run Rows

Each new Study Folder is created with a Model Selection called “Default” already
defined, and set as the selection for every Run Row. Whenever you add a Model to the
Study Folder, the Model is automatically added to the Default selection.
For this tutorial, you need to rename the Default selection to “Day”, for clarity, and
create a second selection called “Night” that will not include the Route Model.
Move to the Run Row tab section and double-click on the Run Rows icon to open the
Run Row dialog. The Models column in the list of Run Rows shows the setting for
Model Selection for each Run Row, and you can see that this is set to Default for both
Run Rows.

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The Run Rows dialog

Setting up the Names for the Selections

To rename the Default selection to Day and
create the Night selection, click on the Manage
Model Selections button below the tree pane at
the right of the dialog. A dialog will appear
as shown.
Make sure Default is selected in the list and
then click on Rename and enter “Day” in the
prompt dialog that appears. When you click
on OK to close the prompt dialog you will see
that the name has changed in the list.
To add the Night selection, click on Add, and
enter “Night” in the prompt dialog and the
name will be added to the list.
You have now finished your work on the list of names for the selections, and can click
on OK to return to the Run Row dialog. You will see that the name of the selection in
the Models column has changed to Day.
Selecting the Night Selection for the Night Run Rows
Set the width of the Name column so that you can see the full
name of each Run Row and distinguish the day Row from the
night Row. For the night Row, change the selection for Models from Day to Night, as
shown.
Defining the Selection of Models for Night
Place the cursor in the night Row, which will make the
tree pane display the current selection for Night, and
check the box by the Toxic, Flammable and Fires folders,
leaving the Route Model unselected.
This completes the work on the Model Selections, and
you can click on OK to close the Run Rows dialog.

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Viewing the Wind rose Data

Move to the Weather tab section, and double-click on the folder for the set of day
weathers. The Wind rose dialog will open as shown below.

The Wind rose Data for a Set of Weathers

The dialog gives a table of weathers and wind directions, with a probability for each
combination. You can scan the table to see the predominant weather condition and the
prevailing wind direction.
In the Example Study Folder, the wind rose data are dummy data, with the same
probability set for each weather. The B 3m/s weather has a full set of data because you
set it up by editing the existing F 1.5m/s weather; if you had inserted B 3m/s as a new,
blank weather, the probabilities would initially have been set to zero.
You do not need to make any changes for this tutorial so can click on Cancel to close the
dialog.

Setting up the Risk Parameter Data

The General Risk Parameters currently have default values for all fields (as shown by
the green box around the icon), and in this situation – for reasons that will be explained
shortly - it isn’t essential to set up separate parameter data for day and night.
For this tutorial you will make a change to a key parameter, and this change will make
it necessary to define a separate set of parameters for day and night.
Setting Values for Day
Move to the Parameters tab
section, rename the
Parameters Set to Day
Parameters, and open the input
dialog for the General Risk Parameters.
The key parameter to change is the Method for handling Indoor/Outdoor risk, which
is in the first tab section. By default this is set to Indoor and outdoor risk calculations, and in
this situation the fields for Fraction of Population Outdoors are disabled and the
program will take the outdoor-fraction from the input data for the individual
population shapes. The fraction will typically be different for day and night, and you
set different values for the day population shapes and for the night population shapes.

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 Chapter 4: Performing the -Risk Calculations

For this tutorial, you should change the Method to Outdoor risk calculations only, as shown
in the illustration above. With this setting, the program will still consider both indoor
and outdoor populations, but it will not perform indoor toxic consequence-modelling
and so uses the outdoor effect distances for both indoor and outdoor populations.
When you choose this method, the Outdoor risk fields will become enabled, and the
program will use the values set here for all population shapes, ignoring the values set
for the individual shapes; this means that you must set up separate parameter sets in
order to model the different fractions for day and night.
For these day parameters, set the fraction For Societal Risk to 0.2, as shown in the
illustration above, and leave the fraction For Individual Risk with the default value of
1.
These are the only changes you need to make, and you can click on OK to close the
dialog.
Setting Values for Night
Select the Tutorial icon at the top of the Study Tree and then select Parameter Set from the
Insert menu and name the new Set Night Parameters. The folder will contain a full set of
parameters, all of which will initially be set to default values – although you will only
see the green borders around the icons once you have selected the set for the Night Run
Row.
Edit the General Risk Parameters, set the Method to Outdoor risk calculations only, and set
the fraction For Societal Risk to 0.05. Leave the fraction For Individual Risk with the
default value of 1, and click on OK to close the dialog.
Selecting the Night Set for the Night Run Row
Move to the Run Rows tab, open the Run Row dialog, select Night Parameters in the
Parameters column for the Night Run Row, and then click on OK to close the dialog.
In this chapter of the tutorial, you return several times to the Run Row tab section and
the Run Rows dialog to make a selection after setting up the data in another tab
section. There are other ways of ordering the tasks, and you might prefer to first insert
and name all of the folders in the various tab sections (without making any changes to
the input data), then make the selections in a single operation in the Run Row dialog,
and then return to the other tab sections to work on the details of the input data. This
approach is probably more efficient, though it doesn’t allow you to concentrate on one
type of input data at a time, which is the advantage of the approach used in this
tutorial.

Setting up the Population Data

For this tutorial, the information for residential population is assumed to be taken from
census data, and the census-numbers are assumed to describe the situation at night-
time, when all of the people are at home. You will set up the night population first, as
the “base” population, and then later copy and modify it for day.
Note: you always give the co-ordinates for risk ranking point data in the national co-
ordinate system, not in the local co-ordinate system defined by the Location Offset. If
you wish, you can view the co-ordinates for one of these shapes in the local system, but
you cannot enter values in this system. The local co-ordinate system is used only for
defining the location for Models, population and ignition sources.

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Defining the Night Population Data

Move to the Risk tab section, and rename the Default Population Set to Night Population.
For this tutorial, you will only define population around The Village, to the east and
south of the site. You will define the population nearest to the facility in some detail,
identifying individual houses or groups of houses, but represent the main village,
further from the site, with a single shape.
Drawing the Shapes
Draw all of the shapes first, as shown in the table below. The exact location and shape
are not important for this tutorial.
Name Description Type of Shape
Four Nearest The group of four houses nearest to the site. Rectangle
West House The house immediately to the east of the four Point
houses.
East House The house further to the east of the four houses. Point
Short Street The street of about eight houses immediately to Rectangle
the south of West House and East House
Long Street The street of about 20 houses to the north-west of Rectangle
the main town
The Village The areas of the village that have a fairly uniform Polygon
density of buildings.

Right-click on the Night Population Set folder and insert the shape type of the
population or select the Night Population Set folder and insert the population from the
insert menu located in the toolbar.
• To insert a point shape, simply click once on the map.
• To insert a rotated rectangle, click once to place a corner, click again to set the
orientation, and click a third time to place the corner opposite the first.
• To insert a polygon, move around the shape in a consistent direction (i.e. either
clockwise or anticlockwise), clicking to insert each corner. Double-click when
you have completed the shape, to finish the drawing operation.

The Six Population Shapes on the Map

If you want the names of the shapes to be displayed on the Map as shown in the
illustration above, select the Population folder and then select Labels from the View
menu.

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When the icons for the shapes are added to the Study Tree, you will see that the icons
for the two point shapes have red borders, while the icons for the rectangle and
polygon shapes do not. The program has a default value for population density (set in
the Risk Preferences under the Options menu), and it uses this to calculate a default
population for shapes that have an area.
For point shapes, however, there is no default population, and the icons for these
shapes have a red border because they are created with the population value unset.
Setting the Population Values
If you wish, you can open the input dialog for each shape in turn, but it is easier to
open the dialog for the Population Set folder, since this allows you to work on all of the
shapes at the same time, as shown.

The Table of Population Data

When the dialog first opens, the rectangle and polygon shapes will have the default
values based on the area and default density, but the population for the point shapes
will be unset. Do not use the default values, and instead enter the values shown above.
The Category field allows you to choose a category for
each population out of a list, e.g. Residential, Industrial,
Commercial, Town. The category is not used in the
calculations, but does determine the colour and style used
to display the shape on the map, and you can define
categories and their styles yourself using the Population
Category Set folder in the Risk tab section. For this tutorial,
you can leave all of the populations with the default
category [None].
The Population Set dialog only shows the
population data for each shape, not the
geometry. If you want to set an exact location for
a shape, you must open the input dialog for the
shape itself, which contains a Geometry tab.
Click on OK to close the Population Set dialog.

Defining the Day Population Data

For the night population, it was assumed that everyone was at home. For the day
population, you will assume that half of the people are at home, that 40 are at the local
school, and that the remainder are at work outside the area.
Copy and Paste the Night Set
Copy and paste the Night Population folder, and name the copy Day Population.

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Select the Day Set for the Day Run Row

Before you can add the shape for the school, you must select the Day Population Set for
the Day Run Row. If a Set is not selected for a Run Row, the options to insert population
shapes are not be available for that Set.
Move to the Run Row tab section, open the Run Rows dialog, move to the Risk tab
section inside the dialog, and make the appropriate selection for the Day Row. After
you have closed the dialog, return to the Risk tab section.
Adding the Shape for the School
Make sure that the Day Run Row is selected as the current Run
Row, then select the Day Population folder and add a shape for the
school to the folder.
The school is a large building on the south-west outskirts of the
village, and you should draw it as a rotated rectangle as shown.
Setting the Population Values
Open the dialog for the Population Set, set
the population for the school to 40, and
halve the values for the residential shapes
as shown.
It is possible to copy and paste data
between the table in the dialog and a
spreadsheet, and you can use this for
applying night-to-day factors when you have a large number of population shapes
(e.g. from census data). In this situation you would copy the data from the night table
to a spreadsheet, calculate the factored values inside the spreadsheet, and then copy
the factored values to the day table.

Setting up the Ignition and Ranking Point Data

The new, blank Study Folder is created with a single set of ignition and risk ranking
point data, each called the “Default” set.
The pattern of ignition sources might be different for day and night, but for this
tutorial you will define a single set of ignition sources.
A given run of the risk calculations will always use the same set of risk ranking points
for all calculations, since this allows you to compare and combine risk-ranking results
across different run rows, and it is best to design a risk analysis to have a single set of
points.

Defining the Ignition Data

For this tutorial, you will define a single onsite ignition source: a
flare located just inside the north-west corner of the site and to the
north of the propane sphere, as shown.
Insert the flare as a Point Ignition Source, then open the input
dialog and set the ignition values as shown.

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Defining the Risk Ranking Points

For this tutorial you will define two risk ranking points, as
shown by the blue dots on the map in the illustration:
1. At the group of four houses nearest to the boundary
of the site.
The co-ordinates for this point are approximately
199150 m east, 434550 m north.
2. At the village school, which is in the large building
on the south-western outskirts of the village.
The co-ordinates for this point are approximately
199640 m east, 433690 m north.
Insert the two points and name them Four Nearest and School. Risk Ranking Points don’t
have any input data apart from the location.
If you find that the population shapes are preventing you from seeing the map image
properly when you are placing the risk ranking points, you can hide the population
shapes by right-clicking on the Population item in the Map Legend, and then selecting
Display Off from the right-click menu.
You have now completed the input data for the risk calculations. Save the Study Folder
before proceeding to the next stage.

The Risk Calculations and Results

Move to the Run Rows tab, select the Run Rows icon, and then select the Run Models
option. For each Run Row in turn, the program will run the consequence calculations
for any combinations of Models, Weathers and Parameters that have not yet been run,
and will then proceed to the risk calculations. The calculations will probably take 10-15
minutes, depending on the speed of your machine.

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Setting Combination Factors for the Run Rows

Before you view the risk results, there is a final setting that you must make in the Run
Rows dialog.
In the dialog, move to the Factors tab section. You use this tab section to set factors that
will be used when combining results for different Run Rows, where the combination
will typically be intended to represent the average risk over a given period (e.g. a year).
You can define up to ten combinations.
In the new, blank Study Folder there is a single Run Row, and this Run Row has the
factor set to 1 – i.e. the conditions represented by the Run Row are applicable to 100%
of the year. When you created the second run row as a copy of the first, this value was
also copied, and the default settings will appears as shown below.

The Default Settings for Combination Factors

If you view the results with these factors set, the risk levels will be too high, i.e.
approximately double the genuine average levels over a year.
Before viewing the results, you must set factors that describe the proportion of the year
for which day conditions apply, and the proportion for which night conditions apply.
For this tutorial you will set a factor of 0.4 for day and 0.6 for
night, as shown. The factor is larger for night to account for
weekends and holidays, when the population will be closer to the
night distribution than to the day population.
For this tutorial you will define only one combination of factors, for Column 1. The risk
contour plot always displays results using the factors set for Column 1, but if you
define factors for additional columns, then the results for each combination or column
will be shown as a separate line in the FN Curve.
You can change the settings for factors at any time, i.e. before or after performing the
risk calculations. They do not affect the calculations themselves, but only the method of
combining the results.
If you view the risk results with a single Run Row selected rather than the Run Rows
icon, the program will use a factor of 1 for that row. The factors are used only for
presenting the results for multiple rows.

Viewing the Risk Contour Plot

Select the Run Rows icon and then view the risk contour plot.

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The Risk Contour Plot

The risk over a year is dominated by the chlorine releases. You can see the contribution
made by the releases from the propane sphere, but there is no visible contribution from
the tank-wagons.
Viewing the Individual Risk Ranking Results
Select the Run Rows icon and then select Individual Risk Ranking Report from the View menu.
In the dialog which appears, select the option to Show model names using full path to
Study Folder, which will help you distinguish between the Models in the various
folders.
The report shows that the risk at the group of four houses is produced by the toxic
releases and by the tank wagon rupture from several locations along the route, and
that the risk at the school is produced only by the toxic releases. For both points, the
risk is dominated by the chlorine rupture.
Viewing the FN Curve
Select the Run Rows icon and
then view the FN Curve.
The risk is high, with some
outcomes causing up to 300
fatalities.
If you move to the F-N
Curve tab section, which
shows the contribution for
the two run rows separately,
you will see that the risk is
greater for night, and this is
due to the stable night-time
weather conditions and their
long dispersion distances.
Viewing the Societal Risk

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Ranking Results
Select the Run Rows icon and then select Societal Risk Ranking Report from the View menu,
select the option in the dialog to sort Models By average number of fatalities per
outcome, and to Show model names using full path to Study Folder. The report
confirms that the risk is dominated by the rupture of the chlorine sphere, with some
minor contribution from the toxic pipework failures and from tank wagon ruptures.
Saving the Study Folder with the Risk Results
You have now completed the parts of this tutorial that deal with the task involved in
performing the most common type of analysis: one for calculating the individual risk.
You should save the Study Folder in order to save the changes you have made.
By default, the program will only save the input data, which means that the next time
you open the Study Folder, you will have to rerun the calculations in order to view the
full results. However, if you select the Save As… option from the File menu, the Save As
dialog will contain an option to Save results as well as your input data. If you select
this option, the program will save the full set of consequence and risk results and you
will be able to view the results immediately the next time you open the Study Folder –
although you should be aware that the file may be large, e.g. 100 MB or more.
Getting Help on Results
This section aims to give the user directions on where to find information, description,
etc… of graphs and reports. As already mentioned in the “Getting Help on the input
data”, under the Help menu > Contents and Index a window will appear and you will be
able to see a list of topics under the Contents tab.

The Help Window – Contents tab

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Red boxes around the topics in the screenshot

to the left indicate items which are worth
reading. Explanation on how to work with
graphs and maps (e.g. changing scale and
graph properties, viewing dynamic plotting of
clouds), as well as a descriptions of the results
can be found here. The Help section also
describes ways to view the reports, how to
export them into other programs such as MS
Excel, Word etc. If you are interested to know
more about detailed contents of reports for
models, click on “Reports: for details of
results”. You will observe that help on results
for both consequence and risk analysis are
covered within the topics.
You may also want to use the two other search
tabs (Index and Search tab) to find a particular
information of interest.

What Next?
This tutorial has not covered every feature of the program, but you should now have
enough of an understanding of the approach and methods used in the program to be
able to explore the remaining features yourself, with the assistance of the online Help.
If you need further details on any aspect of the program, or if you need guidance on
how to model a particular situation for your facility, you should contact product
support using the details given under Product Support in the Help menu.

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