TRIGGERS MEDIA PUBLICATIONS INC .

SEPTEMBER /
OCTOBER 201 2
www.triggers.ca $19.95
Vol.II, Issue #9

D R I V E R $ : D a n g e r o u s D iv e r g e n c e s

Williams %R
Tr a d e r s R e s o u r c e s
T R I GGE R $ a t t h e M o v ie s

C on s u m er C on fi d en ce
H K P rofi t Warn i n g s & U S M arket Vol . S & P M o n t h l y ; G a n n An a l y s i s ;
I n fl ati on Ri s k B ou n d ary C on d i ti on s ;
VI X S &P D ai l y I n term ed i ate Vi ew;
F ractal U pd ate; Key D ates ;
C u rren t Locati on : I n fl ati on Ad j u s ted M arket D ri vers
P arti ci pati on I n d ex
S & P 5 0 0 P E Ra t i o C opper & S i l ver, G ol d
Q3 E P S G u i d a n c e C o m m o d i ty I n d e x
E con om i c Recovery Lead ers E U R/J P Y (Weekly, Daily)
$U SD
E U R/U S D
 SEPTEMBER / OCTOBER, 2012
1 1
Welcome Welcome
Economic & Technical Analysis for the Active Trader
www.triggers.ca

Welcome to TRIGGER$! September/October 201 2 VOL.II, I SSUE #9

Looks like it is going to be an interesting Fall! Gordon's Cover Story and
Drivers article this month look at the market indicators that are warning us
of a potential collapse ahead!
This months Mentor takes a look at the Williams %R and makes some
observations that may aid in your market assessment and trade timing.
Media Matrix takes a little R&R this month from anything "heavy" and offers up some selections
for movies about trading and the markets.
Our feature article, although concise, leaves you with lots to explore as we suggests some
traders to follow and sites to visit. Some traders resources for your consideration.
Our Need to Know TA this months shows how the current pattern has developed and gives
arguments for a pullback. The latest down from the markets may only be the start of a larger
correction! We explain however, why we still are looking for one more up! Intermediate and
Long-Term Targets are given.
The rest of our sections are here as usual for your due diligence. They give some food for
thought, as they are clearly painting a picture that cannot be ignored.
Thank-you for your interest!
Always glad to hear form our readers, so please don't be shy!
Good Trading
GoldenPhi

T R I G G E R $ M E D I A P U B L I C A TI O N S I n c .
F or al l i n q u i ri es , com m en ts an d con tact pl eas e feel free to em ai l u s at:
g o ld e n p h i@ t r ig g e r s .c a
M ai n con tri bu tor : G ord on T. Lon g M arket Res earch & An al yti cs
P u b l i s h e r & E d i to r : G o l d e n P h i
An al yti cal S u m m ari es : G ol d en P h i
 SEPTEMBER / OCTOBER, 2012
2 2
Contents Contents
Economic & Technical Analysis for the Active Trader
www.triggers.ca

4 122
On M arket & E con om i c I n d i cators
C u rren t Locati on : I n fl ati on Ad j u s ted
P arti ci pati on I n d ex
S & P 5 0 0 P E Ra t i o
C over S tory Q3 E P S G u i d a n c e
E con om i c Recovery Lead ers

166 23
Tech n i cal An al ys i s C u rren ci es & M etal s
S & P M o n t h l y ; G a n n An a l y s i s ; C opper & S i l ver, G ol d
B ou n d ary C on d i ti on s ; C o m m o d i ty I n d e x
S &P D ai l y I n term ed i ate Vi ew; E U R/J P Y (Weekl y, D ai l y)
F ractal U pd ate; Key D ates ; $ U S D , E U R/U S D

229
M arket D ri vers

333
As s e s s m e n t
Dangerous C onsumer C onfidence
D iv e r g e n c e s H K Profit Warnings & U S M arket Vol.
I nflation Risk
VI X

36 & G en eral Real i ty 399 Te c h n i c a l An a l ys i s &

Tra d i n g S tra te g y E d u c a ti o n
T R I GGE R $
a t t h e M o v ie s Williams %R

444 Letters to th e E d i tor

Read ers C om m en ts
D i s cu s s i o n s
Corresepondance,
A No t e t o S u b s c r ib e r s

21 TTrraaddeerrss RReessoouurrcceess
3 3
Techni - Techni -
Fundamentalism Fundamentalism
Economic & Technical Analysis for the Active Trader
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TRIGGER$ publications combine both Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis

together offering unique (and often correct) perspectives on the Global Markets. The
‘backbone’ of this research is done by “Gordon T. Long, Market Research & Analytics”
which is subscribed to by Professional Managers, Private Funds, Traders and Analysts
worldwide. Every month “Market Research & Analytics” publishes three reports totalling
more then 380 pages of detailed Technical Analysis and in depth Fundamentals. If you
don’t find our publication detailed enough, we recommend you consider theirs in addition
to this one.
For the rest of us, TRIGGER$ offers a ‘distilled’ version of the 380 pages in a readable
format for use in your daily due diligence. Read and understand what the professionals
are reading without having to be a Professional Analyst or Technician.
S u cces s fu l l y n avi g ati n g tod ays m arkets req u i res i n form ati on from a broad vari ety of
s ou rces . Tri g g ers exam i n es i t al l . F rom M acro G eo P ol i ti cal to d ai l y even ts ; yearl y cycl es
to break ou t poi n ts on a m i n u te ch art: we l ook at an d an al yze as m u ch of th e i n form ati on
as pos s i bl e, pu l l i n g ou t th e rel evan t an d g i vi n g you wh at you n eed to kn ow to m ake th e
ri g h t d eci s i on s on a d ai l y bas i s .
An i n i ti al or ‘ beg i n n i n g ’ pu bl i cati on occu rs every m on th , both i n a pri n tabl e pd f as wel l as
on l i n e. F rom th ere, th e on l i n e vers i on i s u pd ated d ai l y wi th cu rren t even ts , ch arts , n ews
an d an y rel evan t i n form ati on pertai n i n g to trad i n g . Th e com pl eted vers i on of th e
pu bl i cati on i s n ’ t actu al l y d on e u n ti l th e l as t d ay of u pd ates – wh i ch occu rs ri g h t u p u n ti l
t h e p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h e n e xt i s s u e .
As wel l as th e Trad i ti on al M eth od s com m on l y u s ed , “ M arket Res earch & An al yti cs ” h as
d evel oped “ propri etary an al yti cs ” for both Tech n i cal an d F u n d am en tal An al ys i s an d h as
d es i g n ed a m eth od ol og y to com bi n e th e two wh ereby th e s yn th es i s d el i vers a tru l y
u n i q u e an d forward th i n ki n g an al ys i s th at g i ves cu tti n g ed g e i n s i g h t.

“Techni-Fundamentalism”
 SEPTEMBER / OCTOBER, 2012
4 Cover 4
Story

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Go r d o n T L o n g

The expectations of 'UNLIMITED QE∞' and 'UNCAPPED OMT' monetary intervention, and the
associated liquidity injections being pumped into the veins of an artificially "alive" market
corpse, are keeping speculator hopes high.
Investors have left the market. Speculators and Gamblers however are now nervous about the
odds. That is because the high frequency traders, deep pools and algo programs are clearly in
charge.
As remaining market speculators and gamblers are acutely aware, those now in charge can
change their minds and positions in literally less than a millisecond. A flash crash of
unprecedented proportions is keeping those still in the markets up a night as they nervously
scalp the equity rally for a few more precious points.
The canaries in the coal mine have stopped singing
and it is time to quickly move to the exits while
there is still time. There is time, but it is becoming
ever more precious as the signs are now all around
us.
When the most reliable of all contrary indicators -
the Barron's front page - publishes such a strong
endorsement of the strength of the current Bull
Market (right), it may be time to step up the
scramble towards the exits.
Stall Speed
The markets are at stall speed. For those that
might have experienced that terrifying moment
when a plane stalls, they must be feeling a sense of déjà vu at this moment. They will recall
how everything gets eerily quiet as the plane levitates, like Willie Coyote going over a cliff, just
prior to the fall. Suddenly the plane's nose will drop between your legs and below your feet.
(cont pg.5)
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STALL SPEED (cont.)

Like an amusement park roller coaster,

you plummet as the riders scream.
Unfortunately, losing money is not
amusement.
This is what it looks like at that moment
just prior to the stall. The market shows
divergences everywhere.
Shown to the right is one such
divergence. Economic surprises are
presently mostly negative, but the
market still continues higher, on the
expectations of what the central
planners liquidity injections will mean.
Investors and money managers are all
well aware of the telltale divergences
and are positioning accordingly, as they
reduce equity positions.
Investors are steadily moving towards
the exits. So far there has been no
panic. Yet!
Ready to Roll?
Besides the false hope in central bank
liquidity injections boasting the
markets, is that earnings will still be
OK, and PEs will consequently expand
further.
The thinking on the street is that though
Q3 earnings will likely be minus 1 .9%,
and Q4 earnings is being brought down
from 1 5% to 1 0.2%, it still gives a 4.0%
growth for 201 2. That is higher than
real GDP growth and suggests to them,
PE's will expand, especially with the
201 3 forecast at 11 .8%. To them it is a
time to remain bullish.

(cont pg.6)
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STALL SPEED (cont.)

R EA D Y ? NOW ROLLING OVER!

(cont pg.7)
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STALL SPEED (cont.)

False Expectations & Delusion

Market drops are always preceded by broad based misperceptions and false expectations. In
this case, I would suggest we have moved to an even higher level, that could more
appropriately termed 'delusional'.
Here are the facts.
The global slowdown which is already impacting earnings is MUCH worse than is being
recognized. People who have their hands on the pulse of global economy can't be any more
clear on this.
FedEx, CHAIRMAN & CEO - Fredrick W. Smith
"I'm Amused Watching Observers Completely Underestimate what the
Export Slowdown is Doing to China"
“Fundamentally, what’s happening is that exports around the world have contracted and the
policy choices in Europe, the U.S. and China are having an effect on global trade. Over the last
few months, exports and trade have gone down at a faster rate than GDP has.”
San Francisco Chronicle

(cont pg.8)
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STALL SPEED (cont.)

FedEx earnings reliably precede delayed government GDP reports and

revisions. The drop below is similar to what we saw prior to the 2008 financial
crisis, which was preceded by a global shipping contraction.

EARNINGS ESTIMATES
Earnings Estimates are about to be taken
down at a much larger rate than most
expect.

(cont pg.9)
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STALL SPEED (cont.)

PRICE EARNINGS (PE) RATIOS

PE's rising further have a slim to low probability of occurring ...

(cont pg.10)
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STALL SPEED (cont.)

CONCLUSION
What is happening is clearly delusional.
It is historically not untypically to occur this time of year. October is a notorious time for market
adjustments (crashes?) for the reasons which are about to unfold. During the upcoming Q3
earnings conference calls in October, the realities of Q4's earnings 'hockey stick' will be rationalized
and 201 3 estimates revised accordingly. These types of adjustments are often a reality shock, that
shakes people out of their false delusions.

R E A L I T Y OF T HE R OL L OV E R C OM I NG I N OC T OB E R / NOV E M B E R

END Gordon T Long

 SEPTEMBER / OCTOBER, 2012
11 11
Methodology Methodology

Economic & Technical Analysis for the Active Trader

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TRIGGER$, in collaberation with "Gordon T. Long - Market Research & Analytics", have thier own
unique approach to Techni-Fundamental Analysis. The material found in TRIGGER$ are the
conclusions of a multi-perspective methodology boiled down to its final essence. This
methodology includes the following analytical approach:
Time Frame Duration Approach Key Tools
s h ort - term l e s s th a n 9 0 d a y s Tech n i cal An al ys i s E l l i ott Wave P ri n ci pal ,
WD G an n , J D H u rs t,
B rad l ey M od el , P ropri etary
M an d el brot F ractal G en .
i n term ed i ate 1 2 m o n th s Ri s k An a l y s i s G l obal -M acro An al ys i s
Ti p p i n g P o n t s - P i v o t s
l on g er term 1 8 m o n th s + F u n d am en tal An al ys i s F i n an ci al M etri cs
Th e G l obal -M acro An al ys i s wh i ch i s s o preval en t i n ou r arti cl es an d on ou r Ti ppi n g P oi n ts s i te,
pl ays th e cri ti cal rol e of bri d g i n g ou r h i g h l y an al yti c Tech n i cal An al ys i s wi th ou r d etai l ed
F u n d a m e n t a l An a l y s i s .
We h ave fou n d th at i n th e s h ort term th e m arkets are d ri ven by em oti on an d s en ti m en t. I n th e
l on g er term , th ey are d ri ven by fi n an ci al fu n d am en tal s . As Warren B u ffett i s often q u oted as s ayi n g :
“ I n th e s h ort term th e m arket i s a s l ot m ach i n e bu t i n th e l on g term i t i s a wei g h i n g m ach i n e. ” We
h ave fou n d th at th e tran s i ti on s h ows a l ag g i n g correl ati on between ch an g es i n th e G l obal M acro,
fol l owed by C orporate E arn i n g s , th en fol l owed by th e s el l s i d e an al ys t com m u n i ty es ti m ates .
I f you are l ooki n g for m ore d etai l th an i s provi d ed i n TRI G G E R$ , con s i d er l ooki n g at ou r pri m ary
i n s pi rati on : " G ord on T. Lon g Res earch & An al yti cs " . We d o ou r bes t to s u m m ari ze th i s i n form ati on
an d d el i ver i t i n an eas y to read form at. Th i s by i ts very n atu re d oes n ' t al l ow u s to i n cl u d e al l th e
very d etai l ed an al ys i s th at takes pl ace i n ord er to d el i ver u s i ts con cl u s i on s .
Al l i n form ati on an d con cl u s i on s d el i vered i n TRI G G E R$ arti cl es are a prod u ct of th e m eth od ol og y
o u tl i n e d a b o ve .
 SEPTEMBER / OCTOBER, 2012
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C u rren t Locati on : I n fl ati on Ad j u s ted

P arti ci pati on I n d ex
S & P 5 0 0 P E Ra t i o
O n M a rke t & E con om i c I n d i ca tors Q3 E P S G u i d a n c e
E con om i c Recovery Lead ers

Current Location: Inflation Adjusted

(click for source)

This shows us that the markets topped in 2000 and the current lift from 2009 is likely just about
over.
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Participation Index
Decision Point: Carl Swenlim
...and the Participation
Index-UP reached climactic
levels. The Participation
Index (PI) measures short-
term price trends and tracks
the percentage of stocks
pushing the upper or lower
edge of a short-term price
trend envelope. The PI has
no breadth or volume
component -- it is strictly
derived from price
movement. In this article we
will only be addressing
Participation-UP.
Climactic activity on the PI is
generally in the 60 to 80
range, and climaxes
generally signal that the
immediate advance is ending
and that there will be a
period of consolidation or
correction -- a pause to
refresh, so to speak.

S&P 500 P/E Ratio Zero Hedge

...the 3 month rise in the S&P's P/E ratio is its highest since the initial V-bottom recovery in 2009...
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Q3 EPS Guidance
FACTSET.com Q3 Guidance Report

Of the 101 companies that have issued EPS guidance for the third quarter, 80 have issued
projections below the mean EPS estimate and just 21 have issued projections above the mean
EPS estimate. The number of companies issuing negative guidance is well above the numbers in
recent quarters, while the number of companies issuing positive guidance is well below the
numbers in recent quarters.
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Economic Recovery Leaders

Lance Roberts, Street Talk Live
The chart below shows a clear trend change for the consumer as measured by Personal
Consumption Expenditures (PCE). When the recovery began in 2009 it was led primarily by
consumption and production (inventory restocking). Given that consumption is currently
making up more than 70% of GDP - understanding where consumption is occurring is relevant
to future direction of economic growth.

The decline in PCE, Goods and Durable Goods beginning in the third quarter of 2010 led to a
near ZERO growth rate of the economy in the 1st quarter of 2011. Fortunately, the economy
was saved from a recession with a manufacturing restart, and inventory restocking process,
post the Japanese tsunami/earthquake in March of 2011. That boost, combined with the
warmest winter in 65 years and sharply falling oil prices, lifted the economy into the 1st
quarter of 2012. Those tailwinds now appear to be fading.

With GDP currently at 1.7%, as of the latest estimate, the decline in overall PCE, Goods, and
Durable Goods, is very concerning about the next couple of quarters ahead. While the pick
up in services spending (haircuts, accounting, legal, etc.) is currently keeping the current
quarters GDP afloat - service related spending does not lead to substantially stronger
economic output in the future. The real economic drivers are the manufacturing of goods, and
unfortunately, that is where weakness is developing.
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S &P M on th l y; G an n An al ys i s - N ear Term ;

B ou n d ary C on d i ti on s ;
S &P D ai l y I n term ed i ate Vi ew;
Te ch n i ca l An a l ysi s F ractal U pd ate; Key D ates ; M arket d ri vers

Key points to watch on this chart:

1 . It must be pointed out that the chart above is a MONTHLY chart.
2. We should expect to touch the upper Bollinger on a 1 2 monthly moving average basis before
the INTERMEDIATE / LONG TERM top is in.
3. This approximates late fall/ early 201 3
4. This approximates 1 485 on the S&P 500
5. There is a possibility with a geo-political event and global central bank actions for a 'throw-over"
into the 1 530 range. We consider this a medium probability.
6. The RIGHT SHOULDER formation will be more about TIME than further price action.
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GANN Analysis
­ Near Term

We have been watching this analysis / perspective for a long while now. Although it has been following along
quite nicely, we will have to see what the effect of more QE's and the like have on the market as we get closer to
the top of the ellipse and channel.
The pull-back we have been getting in the last week may be the start of the C-D we have been waiting for.
Although the top projected at E is technically sound, "loose money" has a tendency to skew reality. The effects of
further actions have been less and less, and we can expect this to continue... even so, it is difficult to say how
much of a throw-over it may or may not cause. It's doubtful the impacts will be enough to start a new impulse up
to take the market in to new heights, but ultimately who knows? Watch your triggers and follow what the market
does.
IT IS TIME TO TAKE RISK-OFF > Net Neutral
(Further movement has too high a RISK to merit being LONG)
SHORT TERM - High is in INTERMEDAITE TERM - S&P 500 ~1 485
LONG TERM - S&P 500 ~ 1 485- 1 530 (if further Central Bank Liquidity Programs are enacted due to a Geo-
Political event or Monetary Crisis develops.)
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Boundary Conditions

The Boundary Analysis supports what we are seeing in our Gann Analysis.
Expect near term "backing and filling" as we face significant overhead resistance.
A topping process here will 'paint' a right shoulder over a period of time
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S&P ­ Intermediate Term View

Long-Terrm Channel

Daily
alt-target
ellipse edge

The Daily chart above is zoomed out a little to give some perspective on where we see some
significant support / resistances coming from.
You will note the High Probability Target (highlighted in green) sits where we have a convergence of
several significant support / resistance trend lines. The highlighted grey bar reflects a previous
market high, and we can several places where the market respected it as support or resistance
since. Two thick black tend lines also have prior significance.
In order to get to this target however, several channel and Fib supports need to be broken through.
The market currently sits at the first “test” of the current move down. We can see a little bit of
consolidation or pullback has occurred near the blue channel – this is to be expected – now we
need to see it break through these. Immediately below the blue channel we see a light blue s/r.
When these have been moved through, the probabilities of our HPTZ$ being reached increase
dramatically and we can see that there appears to be some open space before we get to the target
zone.
An alternate HPTZ$ can be seen should the market find support and bounce.
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Fractal Update
The chart above we have shown
previously. To the right you can see the
updated chart. At this point we are
expecting one more pullback and lift to
the top chanel.

Key Days To Watch

S e p t .3 0 t h F u ll M o o n
Oc t . 3 P h i M a t e T u r n D a t e ­ M a jo r
Oc t . 8 ­ 2 6 t h Q3 E a r n in g s S e a s o n
Oc t .2 5 t h P h i T u r n D a t e ­ M in o r

Market Drivers (Macro)

The current Market Drivers are show to the right.
They are shown in order of importance, top
down, and are what we believe to be currently
driving market movements.
Note that the SPX is the tail on the dog. As
shown on the graph, a move in the US$ will
currently cause an opposite reaction in the SPX.
Please note that these relationships are not 'tick
for tick' but show a general relationship between
markets.
 SEPTEMBER / OCTOBER, 2012
21 21
Feature Article Feature Article
Economic & Technical Analysis for the Active Trader
www.triggers.ca

If you have ever done an internet search for information pertaining to trading or investing, you will
quickly find that there is more information available than you could ever hope to read. As a
newcomer looking for information on getting started, or a veteran exploring for more trading
ideas, looking online can be frustrating.
With so many to choose from, and anyone with electricity being able to spout their opinion, who
do you listen to? What sites are worth your time to explore?
The following is by no means a complete list. They are some suggestions for you to consider,
see if they have anything to offer for you. They are included in the list because they have a fair
sized following and have been around for a little while.
Traders to Follow

Learning by example or through someone else’s experiences can be beneficial. The follow
people are known traders who are offering advice and services to grow from their experiences as
a trader.
Ashraf Laidi http://www.ashraflaidi.com/
Ashraf Laidi is Chief Global Strategist at City Index / FX Solutions, founder of Intermarket
Strategy Ltd. and author of "Currency Trading & Intermarket Analysis". At City Index / FX
Solutions, Ashraf focuses on foreign exchange and global macro developments pertaining to
central bank policies, sovereign debt and intermarket dynamics (commodities, equity indices &
global bond yields).
TraderMike / StocksToGo http://www.tradermike.net/ http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/
Since 2004 TraderMike.net has been the #1 spot for reading high quality, to the point daily
market recaps. The site has been visited by more than 1 .5 million visitors over its lifetime.
Coupled with TraderMike’s readership, StockTradingToGo today boasts over 1 5,000 RSS
Subscribers making it one of the most followed stock blogs on the web.
Brian Shannon: Alphatrends.net http://www.alphatrends.net/
Brian Shannon is a full time trader (with 20 years of experience), educator and author of the
highly regarded book Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes
Mike Jackson http://twitter.com/bondscoop
Bond trader for over a quarter century, now analyzing markets and the economy

(cont. pg.22)
 SEPTEMBER / OCTOBER, 2012
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Feature Article
Economic & Technical Analysis for the Active Trader
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Traders Resources (cont.)

Sites to Explore

These places usually have some good articles for your consideration. Market mechanics,
economics... a wide variety of information and commentary.
The Market Oracle http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/ John Rubino www.dollarcollapse.com
FOREXPROS http://www.forexpros.com/ SafeHaven http://www.safehaven.com/
GoldSeek http://commentary.goldseek.com/ 24h Gold http://www.24hgold.com
Charles Hugh Smith: Of Two Minds http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html
Gordon T Long Market Research www.gordontlong.com
You can find literally thousands of sites to explore for information. The few sites listed above
offer places to start.
END GoldenPhi

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Al l I n ter-I s s u e U pd ates an al ys i s i n cl u d e:
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current market driver market Technical Triggers: market Technical targets:
specific analytical tool and price level High Probability Target Zones

T UE S & T HUR S

90%
Plan 2 is included with a
subscription to our website. M OR NI NGS
Hig h P r o b a b ilit y T a r g e t Z o n e s
S&P 5 0 0
Plan 3 is an additional
service for those looking for WED & FRI
M OR NI NGS
Accuracy
C u r r e n c ie s & F OR E X
more TA on currencies and
FOREX related markets. As a m atter of record , ou r
p u b l i s h e d H P T Z $ h a ve o ve r a
T UE S & T HUR S
Plan 4 is an additional 9 0 % accu racy perform an ce.
service for those looking for M OR NI NGS TRIGGER$ Technical Method
Commodities + VIX more TA in the Commodities of identifying HPTZ$ is proven
market and VIX. daily in our updates.
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C opper & S i l ver, G ol d

C o m m o d i ty I n d e x
E U R/J P Y (Weekly, Daily)
Cu rre n ci e s & M e ta l s $U SD
E U R/U S D

COPPER & SILVER

1 . Dr Copper (in the middle chart) has been steadily weakening since last winter (2011 ). It signaled,
and is now being supported by PMI indicators, that global economies across the board are slowing
significantly. This month however it has begun to rise. We suspect this has more to do with inflation
pressures associated with central bank monetary policies (ECB=OMT, Fed=QE3, China etc)
2. The fact we had seen no industrial production turn-up in commodities, despite massive global
central bank liquidity injections, Zero Interest Rate (ZIRP) policies and fiscal stimulus we felt
previously should be seen as a major global economic concern. The central bankers must have
agreed and have brought massive monetary policy stimulus to bear.
3. Silver (top) as both a precious metal and industrial meal (electronics) along with Aluminum (bottom)
are additionally supporting the fact that global economies are slowing.
a. We appear to be have been testing a long term support trend line in both instances.
b. We have decisively broken out of a long term consolidation pattern (see Silver chart next page).
[We additionally inserted Gold this month to show its breakout and how inflationary monetary policy is
impacting commodity pricing]
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SILVER
DAILY

GOLD
WEEKLY

Our Weekly Updates show a more

detailed view of Gold. We follow
this on a Daily & Hourly bases,
updating 2x a week.
Since July we have made 26 High
Probability Target Zone forecasts
for Gold, and have missed on only
2. These forecasts are a matter of
published record for our
subscribers.
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COMMODITY INDEX

The overall Commodities complex appears to be putting in an "Expanded Flat" Correction / Consolidation
pattern.
What this chart shows us is:
• CHANNEL BREAK: We have broken to the downside a long term upward channel (an unsustainable RATE).
This suggests minimally and Intermediate term consolidation attempt.
• INFLATION EXPECTATIONS: The central Banks primary reason for temporarily holding further liquidity
injections was to get commodities down and to 'disarm' inflation expectations. It is only with contained
inflation expectations (as represented by commodities) that Central Bankers could be assured that further
liquidity boosts would not spook the bond market.
• Overall Global economic conditions were weakening at such a pace that central bankers this month could
no longer wait.
• Strength in commodities is no more about monetary inflation concerns than demand/supply.
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Economic & Technical Analysis for the Active Trader

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EUR:JPY
WEEKLY

We have been labeling a

"Double Bottom" for a number
of months now. It appears we
have been almost perfect in our
prediction.
We are expecting a Weakening
Yen more than any significant
strengthening in the Euro.

EUR:JPY
DAILY

The market has been lifting as expected.

The pullback to -4- is almost complete, with
a little more yet to go as of Fri afternoon,
Sept.28th.
More lift is expected, and as we note
above, is more do to with weakening Yen
than strength in the Euro.
This is one of the markets we follow in our
Weekly Updates. As of July, we have made
34 High Probability Target Zone calls (for
the EUR/JPY) and have only missed on 1 .
These forecasts are a matter of published
record for our subscribers.
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$USD
Our Weekly Updates show a more detailed view of
the $USD. We follow this on a Daily & Hourly bases,
updating 2x a week.
Since July we have made 33 High Probability Target
Zone forecasts, and have missed on only 4. These
forecasts are a matter of published record for our
subscribers.

Our Global Macro Tipping Points (GMTP) service has been indicating the following outlook:
• The events in Europe precipitated a temporary but Intermediate term flight to safety. The US Dollar
and US Treasuries have been the recipients of this flight to safety as the US financial markets were
seen to be a safe haven RELATIVE to other options. These Global Macro developments have
temporarily halted what was an ongoing, long term weakening in the US dollar.
• As we wrote as early as last November, any PERCEIVED SOULTIONS to the European Sovereign
Debt Crisis, even if they are of the 'kick the can down the road' variety policies, would result in the US
dollar weakening. A weakening dollar meant it took more US dollars to buy the same S&P basket of
stocks and hence stocks denominated in US dollars would rise. Conversely as the EU Summit
attempts were found to be wanting, the Euro continued to weaken, the dollar strengthened and US
equities normally fell.
• Though the European situation continues to worsen as Spain and Italian yields are well over
7% and Spreads against German Bunds are well north of 5%. Draghi's OMT or SMP 2 has been
countered by the Fed's QE∞ (QE to Infinity). The Markets can therefore be expected to now
resume pressures on the US$, especially in light of the looming unresolved "Fiscal Cliff".
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EUR:USD Another market followed in our updates.

30 HPTZ$ forecasted, 1 miss.
DAILY

EU-EURO SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS:

o The present strategy in the EU is a "Political Union" and to change the treaty accord to put EU "teeth" into
countries having to take stronger actions to bring their debt within EU targets. There is no solution given on how
the EU does this other than austerity, which almost assures economic weakness and possible collapse going
forward. Expect increasing broad based social unrest.
o The hidden and real reason for this is to change the mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB) to allow it to
become the "lender of last resort". This is an euphemism for 'allowed to print money'. The mandate of the ECB is
different than the US Federal Reserve and the hidden agenda is to change this.
o As we predicted in previous reports, and is now showing signs of coming to fruition, we expect Spain / Portugal
& Italy to soon launch the next and more serious round of the EU crisis. Keep your eye on France and other
peripheral nations such as Cyprus, the Netherlands. The fact Poland has deferred Eurozone entry is very telling.
o The only solution for the EU is the ECB monetizing money for funding bailouts. Draghi began this process this
month with OMT or SMT2 which is OPEN ended. Support in the German counts and by Merkel suggest the Euro
should strengthen somewhat in the near term.

The Euro -US Dollar Cross is confirming this with its recent breakthrough of the descending(red colored) channel
we have been in most of 201 2. (see breakout above)
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Economic & Technical Analysis for the Active Trader

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D a n g e r o u s D iv e r g e n c e s
M ATA / G M TP

D r iv e r $ :
D a n g e r o u s D iv e r g e n c e s

Ou r M acro An al yti c D ri ver$ are

s i g n al i n g D an g erou s D i verg en ces
an d m eri t carefu l atten ti on . We
h i g h l i g h t (i n red ) j u s t a few from
th i s m o n th ' s 3 3 p a g e o u tl i n e o f
th e s even key d ri ver$ s h own to
th e ri g h t.
T h e 3 3 p g . d o c u m e n t i s p o s te d to
th e D ri ver$ s ecti on of th e
s u bs cri bers web pag e.

(cont.pg.30)
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MACRO SURPRISE INDEX

It is extremely worrying when macro analytic divergences become excessive.
They tend to revert to their traditional relationships in a violent fashion.
Negative global macro news has clearly caught analysts by surprise. The
apparent US Recovery had fooled them into a false sense of confidence regarding
continued global expansion. This is now clearly the case of sell side analysts are
busy taking down 201 2 earnings estimates.
However, the expectations of monetary liquidity is creating a dangerous
divergence.

(cont.pg.31)
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GLOBAL PMI'S
Last quarter we identified the Global PMI Analytic Driver$ and how it confirmed
that the Global Economy was slowing. We showed how for the third year in a row,
we’ve had another Prague Spring, a metaphor for better springtime data melting
as summer begins. In this situation Central Banks have predictably reacted
previously with new rounds of monetary easing. This is exactly what has occurred
with US QEfinity and ECB's Uncapped OMT.
This quarter we highlight yet another Dangerous Divergence between Global PMI
and Global Equities

(cont.pg.32)
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EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND PEs

Another Dangerous Divergence is found between EPS estimates and the PE trend.
This is presently being explained as PE expansion, which has no basis in reality for
happening. There is a clear long term downward trend in forward PE's for the S&P 500.
In our estimation this mirrors the reality of slowing global growth if measured properly
and using a more credible deflator rate. Expect further and ongoing longer term PE
compression.
The thinking on the street is that though Q3 earnings will likely be minus 1 .9%, and Q4
earnings is being brought down from 1 5% to 1 0.2%, it still gives a 4.0% growth for
201 2. That is higher than real GDP growth and suggests to them, PE's will expand,
especially with the 201 3 forecast at 11 .8%. To them it is a time to remain bullish.

There are many technical divergences signalling an adjustment is ahead.

What is important is these divergences are now found in what we believe are key
controlling Macro Analytic Drivers that major fund managers are now watching.

END Gordon T Long

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C onsumer C onfidence
H K Profit Warnings & U S M arket Volume
I nflation Risk
Asse ssm e n t VI X

Consumer Confidence

HUGE MISS: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE PLUNGES TO 60.6 Business Insider

Consumer confidence missed big in August falling to 60.6.

The reading is the lowest since November 2011 . Meanwhile, July's reading was revised down to
65.4. "Consumers were more apprehensive about business and employment prospects, but more
optimistic about their financial prospects despite rising inflation expectations," according to Lynn
Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.
"Consumers' assessment of current conditions was virtually unchanged, suggesting no significant
pickup or deterioration in the pace of growth."
But the number is still above 60, showing the report wasn't a complete disaster. Here are some
highlights from the report:
-The percent saying business conditions are "good" climbed to 1 5.2 percent, from 1 3.7 percent.
-The percent saying business conditions are "bad" was unchanged at 34.4 percent.
-The percent saying jobs are "plentiful" fell to 7 percent, from 7.8 percent.
-The percent saying jobs are "hard to get" eased to 40.7 percent from 41 percent.
-The percent of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months fell to
1 6.5 percent, from 1 9 percent.
-The percent jobs to increase in the months ahead declined to 1 5.4 percent from 1 7.6 percent.
-The percent expecting fewer jobs climbed to 23.4 percent from 20.6 percent.
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Economic & Technical Analysis for the Active Trader

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Hong Kong Profit Warnings & US Market Volume Tell the Global Story

Inflation Risk
Money Supply Growth

Though the government no longer

releases the M3 money supply
statistics, they are put together by
such organizations as
ShadowStats.com.
The massive efforts by the US
Federal Reserve the overall money
supply as represented by this
broadest measure of US money and
credit appears to have finally begun
to work and has recently risen
above the zero line. It appears to be
continuing to rise.
What was worrying was that the rise
was based on programs such as
QEII, which have now ended!
Nevertheless M3 continued to rise
but has recently began to show
signs of rolling over.
The US Government no longer releases M3. Instead we
What will stop it from rolling over as must use M2 or the Adjusted Monetary Base
we are seeing in Housing and the
Economy overall?
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Economic & Technical Analysis for the Active Trader

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VIX WEEKLY
The market has been retesting lows. They appear to have held and we can
see the W%R is lifting, over the -80 level, and suggesting we will see an
increase, or rise in volatility in the near future.

The market has just bounced from

the red channel resistance and a
Fibonacci level. Has stopped at
VIX ­ DAILY
the1 3ma, which has shown support
in the past - need to see if will
again. The W%R is moving from
the upper extreme, but has
recently turned - it may move down
to retest the lows again. We are
expecting an increase in volatility
and any further decline should be
short lived.
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T R I GGE R $ a t t h e M o v ie s
& G e n e ra l Re a l i ty

T R I GGE R $ a t t h e M o v ie s
Do you like the markets and trading? Do you like movies? How about
movies about the markets and trading? The movie Wall Street may
come to mind, and here we offer up a few more for your
consideration. Enjoy!
(click on video images to go to the movie and watch online)

Rogue Trader
The true story of Nick Leeson, an
employee of Barings Bank who after a
successful spell working for the firm's
office in Indonesia is sent to Singapore
as General Manager of the Trading
Floor on the SIMEX exchange. The
movie follows Leeson's rise as he soon
becomes one of Barings' key traders.
However, everything isn't as it appears
— through the 88888 error account,
Nick is hiding huge losses as he
gambles away Baring's money with little
more than the bat of an eyelid from the
powers-that-be back in London.
Eventually the losses mount up to well
over £800 million.

Floored
A world that’s more riot than profession,
the trading floors of Chicago are a place
where gambling your family’s mortgage is
all in a day’s work. Now, when markets
are unhinged, FLOORED offers a unique
window to this lesser-known world of
finance. Traders may not have degrees,
but they’ve got guts, and penchant for
excess. But like many aspects of our
economy, technology is changing their
business, and these eccentric pit denizens
aren’t the type to take kindly to new tricks.
Computerized trading may take the
emotion out of the job, but it may also take
these old-timers out- they are dinosaurs in
a young man’s game.
At a time when millions have lost fortunes
in the fickle stock market and fear
abounds about the faltering financial
system, FLOORED is a gripping, honest
look behind the curtain of the trading floor
that few have ever seen.
(cont pg.37)
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The Midas Formula

The history behind perhaps the greatest
formula ever created in finance: the Black-
Scholes-Merton options pricing model.
Two of its creators were awarded the
Nobel Prize in Economics in 1 997. A year
later their hedge fund Long Term Capital
Management (LTCM) had collapsed with
staggering losses of $1 00 billion due to
significant leverage of the strategy.

The Last Days of

Lehman Brothers
The Last Days of Lehman Brothers is a
British television film. The drama was
inspired by the real events that occurred
over the weekend leading up to the
bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on 1 5
September 2008. Investment bank
Lehman Brothers is in trouble after a
turbulent six months and the leaders of
the three biggest investment banks on
Wall Street met at the Federal Reserve
Bank of New York. American Treasury
Secretary Hank Paulson declares that the
company is not too big to fail and that
there will be no bailout using public
money.

Inside Job
Charles Ferguson’s film – Inside
Job – won the Academy Award for
Best Documentary in 2011 .
It narrates the conflicts of interest
between the finance industry,
politicians, academics and
regulators, which eventually led to
the trillion-dollar collapse of 2008.
Narrated by Matt Damon.

END
 SEPTEMBER / OCTOBER, 2012
38 38
Disclaimer Disclaimer
Economic & Technical Analysis for the Active Trader
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TRIGGER$ publications are for Educational and Entertainment purposes only.

This is not an advisory or recommendation to trade, invest or otherwise participate in the
financial markets. The Editors, Main Contributors and Publishers of TRIGGER$ are not
registered advisors nor do they give investment advice. The comments and analysis
given are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner
whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity
or any other financial instrument at any time. While we believe our statements to be true,
they always depend on the reliability of credible sources. Of course, TRIGGER$
recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by
appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment
decisions, and barring that you are encouraged to confirm the facts on your own before
making important investment commitments.
OUR GOA L i s to be on e of m an y s ou rces of i n form ati on , part of you r d u e d i l i g en ce as
you n avi g ate th e worl d m arkets . We en d eavor to offer u n i q u e pers pecti ves an d i n s i g h ts to
be con s i d ered th at h opefu l l y expan d th e worl d arou n d you an d ad d val u e to you r
experi en ces . We bel i eve th at i n form ati on an d kn owl ed g e, com bi n ed wi th varyi n g
pers pecti ves , are th e m os t powerfu l tool s we can ever pos s es . TRI G G E R$ ai m s at
as s i s ti n g i n th e forg i n g of th es e tool s . Th e read er ackn owl ed g es th at an y u s e of th e tool s
obtai n ed from th i s pu bl i cati on are d on e s o of th ei r own vol i ti on an d ri s k.
© 2 0 1 2 T R I GGE R $ M e d ia P u b lic a t io n s . Th e i n form ati on h erei n was obtai n ed from
s ou rces wh i ch TRI G G E R$ bel i eve i s rel i abl e, bu t we d o n ot g u aran tee i ts accu racy. N on e
of th e i n form ati on , ad verti s em en ts , webs i te l i n ks , or an y opi n i on s expres s ed con s ti tu tes a
s ol i ci tati on of th e pu rch as e or s al e of an y s ecu ri ti es or com m od i ti es . P l eas e n ote th at
TRI G G E R$ con tri bu tors m ay al read y h ave i n ves ted or m ay from ti m e to ti m e i n ves t i n
s ecu ri ti es th at are recom m en d ed or oth erwi s e covered i n th i s pu bl i cati on . TRI G G E R$
d oes n ot i n ten d to d i s cl os e th e exten t of an y cu rren t h ol d i n g s or fu tu re tran s acti on s wi th
res pect to an y parti cu l ar s ecu ri ty an y of th e con tri bu tors m ay or m ay n ot be part of. You
s h ou l d con s i d er th i s pos s i bi l i ty before i n ves ti n g i n an y s ecu ri ty bas ed u pon s tatem en ts
an d i n form ati on con tai n ed i n an y report, pos t, com m en t or s u g g es ti on s you recei ve from
th i s or an y oth er i n form ati on s ou rce.
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Te ch n i ca l An a l ysi s & Williams %R

Tra d i n g S tra te g y E d u ca ti on

Williams %R

There are many different indicators you can choose from to Quoted from StockCharts.com -
aid in your assessment of the markets. The Williams %R is ChartSchool:
one that I have found to be successful and use as part of
the TRIGGER$ methodology. Developed by Larry Williams,
Williams %R is a momentum
While this discussion will be focused on the W%R, the indicator that is the inverse of the
general techniques and methods used can be applied Fast Stochastic Oscillator. Also
across them all. It’s no different than using standard referred to as %R, Williams %R
reflects the level of the close
technical analysis methods across various charts and relative to the highest high for the
instruments. The tools are applicable regardless of the look-back period. In contrast, the
market. Stochastic Oscillator reflects the
level of the close relative to the
The first two methods are common practice and you can lowest low. %R corrects for the
find an abundant of information online about them and their inversion
value by
by multiplying the raw
-100. As a result, the Fast
use. They are useful, and part of the methodology, so we Stochastic Oscillator and Williams
will briefly summarize the techniques. %R produce the exact same lines,
only the scaling is different.
The remaining methods come from untold hours of Williams %R oscillates from 0 to
observing and using the indicator. I’ll share some of my -100. Readings from 0 to -20 are
observations and you can look for them yourself the next considered overbought. Readings
time you are staring at your charts. from -80 to -100 are considered
oversold. Unsurprisingly, signals
D iv e r g e n c e
derived from the Stochastic
Oscillator are also applicable to
This occurs when the direction or slope of the indicator is Williams %R.
opposite to that of the price/time graph. Usually the p/t
graph will eventually follow the indicator. As we show in the Calculation
example chart on the next page, it can take some time to %R = (Highest High - Close) /
(Highest High - Lowest Low) * -100
develop, however the general pull on the market should
eventually be to follow the indicator.

(cont.pg.40)
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Williams %R (cont.)

Market Follows
Indicator

DIVERGENCE

FreeStockCharts.com

DIVERGENCE

Cycles / Indicator Extremes

When the indicator reaches a high or low extreme, it is then assumed that it will need to turn and
move to the opposite. This can give us a clue as to when the current impulse will end, or when
a corrective wave will start and stop.
Indicator Extremes 2
The indicator can be said to be at an extreme when it has lifted above the -20 level or fallen
below the -80 level. As mentioned above, when this occurs you can start to look for the indicator
(and market) to reverse and move to the opposite extreme. At times however, the indicator will
remain at an extreme for an extended period of time, bouncing around the extreme level with
the -20 and -80 acting as support and resistance. While the indicator remains at the extreme
level, it suggests a continuation of the current trend and can remain at this level for an extended
period of time. This can actually signal a very strong trend is under wayZ. as opposed to the
impulse ending and reversing.
Not until the indicator has broken back through the -20 and -80 levels should a reverse of the
trend at an extreme be considered.

(cont.pg.41)
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Williams %R (cont.)

Indicator Extremes 3
While the indicator moves up and down from one extreme to the next, how it behaves at these
levels can be a tell. In an up-trend watch for the extreme to bounce quickly at or just below the
-80 level. In a down-trend the same behaviour can be noticed at the -20 level. This can give you
a clue as to the direction of the larger trend and aid in your timing and understanding of where
you are in the current wave structure. When the indicator starts to break the extreme levels
significantly and spend a little more time at either end, then you are signalled that the larger
trend may be slowing.
You will find that the -20 and -80 levels will support the current trend direction, and give clues as
to when it is failing.
T r e n d s , C h a n n e ls & P a t t e r n s
In the same manner you are able to use trend lines, channels and patterns on the price-time
graph; you can also do so on the indicator. Although the indicator primarily oscillates up and
down, it will do so respecting support and resistance levels like the p/t does. Frequently an up
or down trend line or channel on the p/t will also have a corresponding support or resistance
trend line on the indicator. This can add confirmations for when the s/r eventually breaks.
S/ R Zo n e s
In an up or down trend, the supporting trend line on the indicator may be horizontal, not sloped
as the trend on the price-time graph will be. Rather than using the -20 or -80 levels, the
indicator may find support/resistance at another level that offers s/r for the trend on the graph.
When this occurs it can set up a zone for the trend, so even when the indicator bounces from
the extreme, as long as it remains in the current zone, the trend is still alive, and not necessarily
ending.
Indicator spikes down to -80,
continues positive trend

Indicator bouces from -20,

positive trend slowing

FreeStockCharts.com trend s/r

+ trend zone
trend s/r

(cont.pg.42)
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Economic & Technical Analysis for the Active Trader

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Williams %R (cont.)

Multi­Time Frame
Using your indicator with multiple time frames can aid in your timing. Looking at the higher time
frames can add perspective to the current frame you are viewing. Consider what the higher
frame is doing, where it is going, and then what the lower frames need to do to make this
happen. The lower frames have multiple “cycles” within one cycle of a higher time frame.
Seeing this can improve your timing by decreasing the pullbacks on your entries and maximizing
the trend before you exit.
I n d ic a t o r S e t t in g s
We recommend that you explore your settings and see what happens as you use different
intervals on all your indicators.
If you have read some of our other material, then you know we advocate the use of Fibonacci
theory. We also apply the same to our indicator settings and have found they work extremely
well. We recommend that you explore on your own with different settings, with different markets
and on different time scales. While we have found that a period setting of 1 3 with the Williams
%R works well, all markets have their uniqueness and should be investigated separately.
Wrap­Up
As we initially mentioned, the techniques and observations here have been done with the
Williams %R. Although various other indicators may appear to be vastly different than the W%R,
having multiple indicator lines for example, we suggest that the same observations can be made
with different indicators, having their own “take” on the perspective.
Using some sort of indicator is view technically as a positive thing. Be careful however not to get
overloaded with indicator envy and use more than can be understood. At some point, it becomes
distracting and information can seem to be contradictory from multiple indicators at once. This is
not helpful. Our methodology makes use of just one indicator, and has done so very
successfully.
GoldenPhi

END
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MAIN STREAM ALTERNATIVE MEDIA MARKET ANALYTICS &

MEDIA & SOURCES TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

G
GLLO
OBBA
ALL STTA ABBIIL
LIIT
TYY GLLO
OBBA
ALLCCRRO OSSSS­­MMAARRK
KEET
T MAACCRRO
OE ECCOONNOOM
MIIC
C
& R
& ISKI S K P
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DAY TRADING SWING TRADING TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EDUCATION FUTURES & COMMODITIES OPTIONS

CURRENCIES /FX STOCK TRADING STRATEGY GLOBAL MARKET ANALYSIS CURRENT & FUTURE ECONOMIC REALITY
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Economic & Technical Analysis for the Active Trader

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Le tte rs to th e E d i tor
Re a d e rs Com m e n ts
D i s cu s s i o n s

Andrew, Golden Phi,

I'm impressed with the Triggers publication and the regular updates, great service!
What would assist me is a weekly or daily chart (with triggers and HPTZ) of the GBP/USD, the former
world reserve currency, the currency of the Queen of England :-) Seriously though, the UK is the
home of the most leveraged banking system in the world (from my research). Many traders need to
hedge British Pound holdings and the crash in 2008 of the Pound is not often mentioned.
I'd also like to understand more about why/how you choose the Fib start/end points and time scales.
Sometimes they are difficult to see on the charts.
I may be asking too much but could we have a chart (with triggers and HPTZ) of silver? Even just a
weekly one due to the volatility in the daily/hourly one?
Keep up the great work.
Regards,
Mark

Mark.
Thank-you for the kind words!
I'm with you with respect to GBP/USD and silver. Look for them to be added to the Weekly TA in
the members section in the next few weeks as I go through and update them all.
There have been a couple of articles written lately with some thoughts on using Fibonacci
retracements and extensions. I'll give you a quick breeze through of my thinking but you may
want to look up the others as well.
In general, if we use Fib tools at all then we are saying that the market is in some manner
respecting these levels (retracements, extensions). For whatever reason, the market expands
and contracts with this relationship in mind. If this is the case, then any apparent wave on any
time scale should in some manner have a relationship (Fib) to all other waves. This could be
said to be another aspect of the Fractal nature of the markets.
In practice, I start with the highest time scale I can get, and mark the extreme high and low.
Marking the highs and lows of the most obvious waves, I work my way down the time scales. As
I get down to the smaller scales and closer to the current market location, I will also start to add
Fib extensions & retracements to more obvious sub-waves. The current wave will also have
Fibonacci extensions & retracements from all the apparent waves that have developed, looking
for the potential end of the wave. In that light, I wall also reverse-engineer the current waves
looking for potential likely outcomes of the larger whole.
The key to remember is the general theory of why you are doing this in the first place.

(cont.)
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Economic & Technical Analysis for the Active Trader

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If you understand the basic reason why, then you can shift your perspective to include all aspects of the
market, not just the Fibonacci tools themselves. I outlined the general procedure I use and it should give
you some guidance. However, when you understand what is happening and use that perspective, the
places where you want to mark as significant become more obvious.
When putting the tool in to practice, you can't go wrong if you capture all the major waves and significant
sub-waves. Hope this helps.
Thank-you for your note - Good Trading!

A N ote to S u bs cri bers :

A question came up recently asking about the naming and timing of the monthly issues (Thank-you
Linda!).
TRIGGER$ issues are a result of Gordons efforts and his monthly research. I try and summarize all the
important information I feel is most relevant for Investors/Traders and gear it towards anyone who is
active in the markets.
As this is the case, the body or backbone of the issue is done once Gordon releases his publications.
TRIGGER$ is usually out about 1 -1 /2 weeks after he releases his MATA document for the month. So by
the end of the month, TRIGGER$ is released, summarizing the work for that month.
Had I been thinking about marketing and not just the work itself when I released my 1 st issue, I should
have named it the next month's issue, as opposed to the current month (at months end). Then you
wouldn't be reading the August issue at the end of Sept, waiting for the Sept. issue. Even though the
information would be the same, you would be reading the Sept issue waiting for the Oct release.
I could name this current issue the October release, however it may call in to some questions about the
September issue... So for anyone who noticed, this is why the current issue is called
September/October. The next release will be the October/November issue... and so. (Don't worry,
despite the convention of the name, we are still putting out 1 2 issues a year)
Thank-you for the inquiry - Great Question! Gave me a chance to explain our process a little bit and
hopefully answer anyone else with similar thoughts.
Appreciate all comments, questions, praise and constructive criticism. Please keep them coming!
GoldenPhi

TRIGGERS MEDIA PUBLICATIONS INC .

Economic & Technical Analysis for the Active Trader

www.triggers.ca
GoldenPhi M arket i n teres t s tarted at an earl y ag e, an d I can recal l h avi n g P /E rati os
a.k.a expl ai n ed to m e at 1 4. I n teres t i n Tech n i cal An al ys i s s tarti n g taki n g s h ape i n
Andrew Joseph u n i vers i ty an d for th e pas t 1 5 years i t h as been m y pri m ary focu s . M y
experi en ces vary an d i n cl u d e worki n g for a pri vate fu n d res earch i n g an d
d evel opi n g propri etary tech n i cal an al ys i s m eth od s . Res earch i n g an d tryi n g
to u n d ers tan d th e m arkets h as been a l i fe-l on g pu rs u i t & j ou rn ey.
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Gordon T. Long has been publically offering his financial and economic writing since 201 0,
following a career internationally in technology, senior management & investment finance. He
brings a unique perspective to macroeconomic analysis because of his broad background, which
is not typically found or available to the public.
Mr. Long was a senior group executive with IBM and Motorola for over 20 years. Earlier in his
career he was involved in Sales, Marketing & Service of computing and network communications
solutions across an extensive array of industries. He subsequently held senior positions, which
included: VP & General Manager, Four Phase (Canada); Vice President Operations, Motorola
(MISL - Canada); Vice President Engineering & Officer, Motorola (Codex - USA).
After a career with Fortune 500 corporations, he became a senior officer of Cambex, a highly
successful high tech start-up and public company (Nasdaq: CBEX), where he spearheaded
global expansion as Executive VP & General Manager.
In 1 995, he founded the LCM Groupe in Paris, France to specialize in the rapidly emerging
Internet Venture Capital and Private Equity industry. A focus in the technology research field of
Chaos Theory and Mandelbrot Generators lead in the early 2000's to the development of
advanced Technical Analysis and Market Analytics platforms. The LCM Groupe is a recognized
source for the most advanced technical analysis techniques employed in market trading pattern
recognition.
Mr. Long presently resides in Boston, Massachusetts, continuing the expansion of the LCM
Groupe's International Private Equity opportunities in addition to their core financial market
trading platforms expertise. GordonTLong.com is a wholly owned operating unit of the LCM
Groupe.
Gordon T. Long is a graduate Engineer, University of
Waterloo (Canada) in Thermodynamics-Fluid
Mechanics (Aerodynamics). On graduation from an
intensive 5 year specialized Co-operative Engineering
program he pursued graduate business studies at the
prestigious Ivy Business School, University of Western
Ontario (Canada) on a Northern & Central Gas
Corporation Scholarship. He was subsequently
selected to attend advanced one year training with the
IBM Corporation in New York prior to starting his
career with IBM.