INVESTOR REPORT

JAN - APR 2018 IP-Participações

This document is published exclusively for the purpose of
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management carried out by IP Capital Partners, is not the
Offering Memorandums of the IP Fund SPC (“Fund”) and is
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Before subscribing for the Shares, each prospective investor
should (i) carefully read and retain the Offering Memorandums
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Shares; (ii) consult with his/her/its own counsel and advisors
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 INDEX

IP-Participações 04
Alphabet 05
AB Inbev 07

Miscellaneous 15

Performance 17
IP-Participações Class 18
IP-PARTICIPAÇÕES

As discussed in previous reports, Fed’s decision to understand the rationale of other market participants,
unwind its balance sheet and remove market liquidity but our primary concern is never to anticipate macro
would have ramifications on general asset prices. In trends or the shocks themselves. Our primary concern
recent months, these impacts have become more is to be prepared. We want to anticipate which
evident. The fear that followed the rise in the 10-year companies can create value on their own merits, with
Treasury rate troubled many markets. On our part, we consistency, and who can take advantage of future
only have reasons to celebrate. adverse scenarios.

These situations can be distressing for those who PORTFOLIO

invest attempting to foresee market movements. For
The recent shake-up in the American market was most
those investors, if opportunity costs (interest rates)
welcome. The drop in share prices, combined with the
rise, market prices must fall. Investors who believe
consistent growth of individual businesses created
this is the beginning of a longer cycle of increasing
excellent opportunities to use part of the cash we had
interest rates often attempt to anticipate market
been storing in previous quarters.
trends and sell assets before prices drop even further.

These investors will not only miss more attractive

We initiated two small investments: Facebook
asset prices but may also take permanent losses in
and Charter. These are businesses for which we’ve
untimely sales.
held particular admiration and which suffered

significant price declines for reasons we believe to be

On the other hand, investors focused on absolute long-
temporary. We’ll further comment on these cases in
term returns view any market shake-up as a blessing. If
future reports.
projected cash flows of invested companies, assuming

reasonably accurate estimates, already indicated We significantly reduced our investment in Amazon
attractive returns before the share price drop, after the more than 30% share price increase in
logically, future returns should increase as shares cost 2018. We choose to still participate in its impressive
substantially less. For exceptional companies, trading evolution, however, with a smaller position.
at decent prices, a 1% or 2% increase in interest rates –
In Brazil, our key investments — Itaú/Itaúsa, Energisa,
after a significant stock price decline– would not make
and B3 — were reduced after significant increases
additional purchases unattractive.
given the euphoric beginning of 2018. More recently,
As previously stated, markets are cyclical and following a period of greater complacency with the
subject to shocks every now and then. It is helpful to uncertainties in upcoming elections, risks have finally

Investor Report | Jan - Apr 2018

4
started to reflect on asset prices. While shares of In this report, we will comment on our investments in
state-owned, cyclical and lower-quality businesses Alphabet (Google) and Anheuser-Busch InBev.
soared following a decompression of the economy
ALPHABET
and the appreciation of certain commodities, some

companies within our universe have returned to more

In our 2Q17 report, we explained the rationale for
reasonable valuations.
our investment in Alphabet, the holding company

for Google. Since then, the company’s rhythm has

We metaphorically compare our funds to little bonsais.
remained strong. In the second half of 2017, growth
There are no shortcuts to good results: it takes careful
accelerated to 23% per year and has continued so
cultivation alongside much energy and dedication.
through the first quarter of 2018. Even the US search
The recent performance of our fund tells a somewhat business, its most mature, has sustained growth rates
limited story about our investments. The investment of around 20%. Such growth is boosted by YouTube,
optimizations, although conservative, are constant. which we estimate to be at 30% per year, and segments
This year, the dispersion in returns within our such as Google Play (apps), Hardware (Google Pixel
portfolio positions has been higher than average, smartphone) and Cloud, which together grow at 40%
which allowed us to make interesting adjustments. per year. A spectacular performance for a company
Increased volatility, coupled with the ability to with annual revenues of over US$100 billion.
quickly allocate capital in opportunities both in

Brazil and abroad, gives us the flexibility to increase In Search, by far its most significant segment, Google

has innovated to reduce friction and become more

potential returns. It is a privilege to be able to restrict
valuable and integrated for users and advertisers.
ourselves to truly outstanding companies. Over
An example is the recently announced Shopping
time, this improves the quality of the businesses in
Actions, an e-commerce solution that permits users
our portfolio and, consequently, safely increases our
to add products from different vendors to a single
funds’ performance.
shopping cart, directly from the search page. Only
We believe we are well positioned to face whatever a single payment is necessary and free delivery is
looming scenario. To successfully navigate market offered above a minimum purchase amount. The
turmoil, nothing beats a portfolio of strong, profitable advertisement fee is calculated as a percentage of
businesses that grow, generate cash, and trade at sales and not by clicks, allowing Google to capture
reasonable prices — in addition to a very comfortable more of the transaction value. Another example is
cash cushion. the evolution of Google Hotel Ads, a solution that

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IP-PARTICIPAÇÕES

compares hotel prices between various websites, allow us to increase our position at attractive prices.

including Expedia and Booking, and encourages We see no problem with investing heavily towards the

hotels to advertise directly on Google. The result has future. Quite the contrary — Alphabet is positioned to

been a gradual strengthening of hotels versus online lead and extract enormous value from AI technology,

travel agencies (OTAs), once again letting Google which is hardware intensive by nature.

capture more value.

For example, its self-driving car initiative Waymo

Margins, on the other hand, continue to compress. is no longer just theoretical. In Phoenix, Arizona,

The reason for this is that the currently fastest Waymo is piloting a 100% self-driven transportation

growing businesses (YouTube, Hardware, and Cloud) service.1 By the end of 2018, it will be available to the

have structurally lower margins when compared city’s residents. Waymo’s cars have amassed 9 million

to Search. The fact that search is increasingly used kilometers in test-drives and are at the forefront of

on mobile devices, in which the company must pay the technological race to become truly functional

manufacturers (such as Apple) to maintain Google and secure. The goal of the company is to have fully

as their standard search engine, does not help. automated vehicles, not just on well-signaled roads

Nevertheless, its annual recurring gross profit has and other more straightforward situations, as do

grown in the 17-20% range. The net income has been the Tesla cars today. The argument is that people

evolving at similar levels when deducting recurring do not know how to operate with partial autonomy

expenses in proportion to revenues. safely. Tests indicate that users quickly become too
reliant on the automated system and get distracted.
Sundar Pichai (CEO) and Ruth Porat (CFO) continually A system that works 95% of the time but can surprise
remind investors that Alphabet’s objective is the driver in critical situations can be more dangerous
not to expand margins but to increase profits in than no autonomy at all. In recent cases, such as the
absolute terms. Thus, investors should expect strong cyclist being run over by a self-driven Uber car, and
investments to enable future growth, through research the fatal accident of a Tesla client when crashing into
and development, marketing or investments in fixed a wall, the driver’s distraction was critical and seems
assets (CAPEX). In the first quarter of 2018, CAPEX to confirm that full autonomy is the correct path.
reached US$7.3 billion, half to expand offices and Waymo is one of Alphabet’s Other Bets, does not
facilities, and the other half to increase the company’s generate significant revenues, and is not considered
computational capacity to manage processing- in our valuation calculations. Its development gives us

intensive services, such as artificial intelligence (AI). hope that the Other Bets may not be a waste of capital

Sometimes, such numbers frighten the market and after all.

1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8R148hFxPw

Investor Report | Jan - Apr 2018

6
The greatest risk to our investment lies in potential imposition. Therefore, we think this scenario can

regulation, especially antitrust. Last year, the ultimately be managed by the company.

company received a €2.4 billion fine for its product

Alphabet trades, according to our estimates, at
price comparison solution in Europe. The decision
approximately 20x its 2018 recurring net income. We
is under appeal while the company complies with
remove net cash from the company’s market value
the demands from the European Commission. This
and capitalize (rather than expense) the Other Bets.
discussion may still not be over for Alphabet, as
The current price is quite attractive for a business with
well-organized lobbying groups are exerting public
such growth prospects, and thus we increased our
pressure for an even more favorable solution for them. position during the first months of the year.
They want Google to direct users to their websites,

free of charge, something difficult to defend legally. ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV (ABI)

The Android issue is more delicate. Alphabet is being ABI’s business model is attractive in numerous

investigated for non-competitive practices, such as ways. The beer business is reasonably predictable,

requiring from manufacturers the pre-installation of generates strong cash flows, has the potential for

the Google Play Store, Search, Maps, and YouTube organic growth and has a small risk of suffering

on all smartphones. The company has sought to from technology shocks (especially in developing

resolve the issue with the European Commission, countries). In addition, ABI has a massive market

but we would not be surprised if there were other dominance (generating around 30% of global beer

substantial fines along with specific conditions for volumes and almost 50% of the industry’s profits),

the commercialization of Android products. One and a talented, well-aligned management team with

possibility may be to prevent Google from enforcing an envious execution track record.

smartphone manufacturers to adopt all of their apps

In recent years, our investment in the company
at once, letting users choose each app individually.
ranged from a small to medium position. Recently,
Another possibility is the creation of a competing app
a combination of factors gave us an opportunity to
store. Either way, Alphabet would lose its bargaining
increase our stake.
power with manufacturers and could have higher

acquisition costs for Search traffic. Such scenarios Over the last five years, ABI’s share price appreciated
must be considered. However, we believe the services only 20%, while the S&P 500 climbed 84%2. The
offered by Search, Maps, YouTube and the Play Store main drag was the 9% drop in earnings per share
are leaders on their own merits and not by mere between 2012 and 2017, due to: (i) the lack of organic

2
Closing price on 04/30/2018 (adjusted by dividends).

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volume growth, primarily a result of the economic could cause significant operational deleverage and
recession in Brazil, (ii) the devaluation of emerging jeopardize the company’s ability to maintain its
market currencies, generating a negative cumulative dividends and/or manage its debt. The Budweiser
impact of approximately US$6.6 billion on EBITDA, and Bud Light brands, which account for roughly
(iii) the increase in debt from 1.9x net debt/EBITDA 60% of volumes, have been suffering from worsening
to 4.7x in the period due to the SAB Miller (SAB) competition. The volumes of these brands have
acquisition, and (iv) the shareholder dilution from this dropped 5.8% and 6.5%, respectively, during the first
same acquisition. four months of 2018 4. On the other hand, the Super
Premium category, which accounts for approximately
In 2018, ABI’s market capitalization fell by about 10%,
15% of volumes and has high margins (i.e., Michelob
from US$210 billion to US$189 billion3, following the
Ultra), grows at double-digit rates, helping to offset
increase in long-term Treasury yields, a general decline
the declines of the more popular brands. We believe
in the prices of global consumer goods companies,
that, over the next few years, the change in mix will
and a few company-specific concerns.
result in smaller reductions in revenues than expected.

In any case, the region has been losing its relevance

We believe some concerns may have been exaggerated
within the company over the years given its relative
and the company-specific risks are indeed
manageable. For example, recently, many investors performance and some strategic acquisitions. In 2012,

have questioned the ability of the culture employed the United States represented 38% of total EBITDA,

by 3G Capital’s partners to encourage innovation and while in 2017 this number fell to 26%.

create organic growth at both ABI and Kraft Heinz. We

Another issue is debt. From 2015 to 2016, after
see these situations distinctly: different businesses,
the completion of the SAB acquisition, net debt
in different regions, with different teams and thus
increased from US$42 billion to US$108 billion and
have different future perspectives. Although ABI
concluded 2017 at US$104 billion. There are three
has not grown organically in the last five years, the
critical risks regarding this increase in debt: (i) the risk
company is now better prepared to grow following
of a normalization (increase) of global interest rates,
the acquisition of SAB.
(ii) refinancing risk and (iii) the risk of a mismatch

The decline in US beer volumes, which peaked in 2008, between the cash flows denominated in multiple

also causes concern. Since this is the most profitable currencies and the mostly (90%) Euro and US dollar-

and cash-generating region for ABI, a rupture denominated debt. Albeit these risks, a few points are

3
Closing price on 04/30/2018.
4
Source: Nielsen. Data as of 04/21/2018.

Investor Report | Jan - Apr 2018

8
comforting: (i) 93% of debt is fixed with an average cost production to more premium brands to keep revenues
of 3.7% per year, (ii) over 60% of outstanding debt will stable. On the other hand, the beer market still grows
begin to be amortized only in 5 years, long enough in regions such as Colombia, Mexico, China and Africa
for the company to grow its business and improve its due to populational growth, increased disposable
net debt/EBITDA ratio, and (iii) the company’s cash income, increased beer consumption per capita
flow is higher than its net income due to its negative and market share gains from informal beverages.
working capital. The acquisition of SAB brought not only access to

growing markets but also access to regions with

Where will growth come from?
elevated market shares, thus facilitating operational
improvement and the expansion of its global
Despite the risks discussed above, ABI can deliver
brand portfolio.
sustainable growth in the upcoming years, for the

following reasons:
The chart below illustrates the evolution of beer

Firstly, ABI is currently more geographically diverse consumption per capita, by country, between 2004

and has greater exposure to growing economies. The and 2014 and ABI’s current approximate market share

beer market in mature regions, such as the United in each region. The combination of a growing market

States and Western Europe, is no longer growing. In with dominant market share is killer. In 2018, a little

these markets, beer has been losing market share to over 70% of ABI’s volume will come from nascent or

spirits and wine, and breweries have directed their developing markets.

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BEER CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (LITERS) AND MARKET SHARE BY COUNTRY

Nascent Markets Developing Markets Mature Markets

140 100%

90%
120

80%
Per capita consumption of beer (in litres)

100
70%

80
60%

Market share
60 50%

40%
40

30%

20
20%

0 10%
India

Ghana

Uganda

Zambia

Mozambique

Tanzania

China

Peru

Argentina
Ecuador

Chile

South Korea

Dominican Republic

Colombia

Brazil

Russia

Panama

Mexico

South Africa

Canada

Australia

United States

United kingdom

Germany
PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION IN 2004 PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION IN 2014 MARKET SHARE

Source: World Health Organization. Only the population above 15 years is considered. Data for South Korea, Peru, Tanzania, Mozambique, and Zambia are from 2013. Data for
Uganda and Ghana are from 2011. Market share data are Jefferies estimates for 2016.

Investor Report | Jan - Apr 2018

10
Secondly, management’s commitment to generate avoiding being behind the curve, as was the case with

organic growth is greater than in the past. By the craft beer phenomenon in the United States.

integrating SAB, ABI perfected its growth model by

ABI formally adopted the category expansion
combining the best management practices from both
framework in March 2017. Consequently, each regional
companies. All to align the company and generate
president developed a three-year growth plan for
growth according to each region’s particularities.
its brand portfolio, implemented in early 2018.

SAB was known as a “market maker” while ABI was a Conversations with former SAB employees indicated

“market taker.” Given the elevated market shares in its that ABI’s more risk-taking culture could accelerate the

central regions, (>90% in Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and brand portfolio strategy: “SAB was quite a risk-averse

South Africa), SAB developed a growth model known business, so there were many cases where we were too

as the category expansion framework. This framework afraid to trial things, whereas ABI is very open to trialing

organizes expansion strategies for a portfolio of things. From that perspective, I think that could be a nice

brands, considering the specific characteristics of change in culture that could actually drive growth.”

each region, such as the market’s maturity curve,

Additionally, in recent years, the company modified
the company’s level of dominance and the segments
its incentives to better align executives with the
with higher growth trends. ABI, in turn, organized
company’s organic growth. Historically, variable
its expansion strategies based on individual brands,
compensation was based on four metrics: EBITDA,
rather than regional portfolios, which generated some
cash flow, operating costs and market share. In 2014,
energy dissipation. The adoption of the framework
the operating costs metric was replaced by total
will allow ABI to compete in all major segments,
revenue growth and, in 2016, they were all replaced
anticipating changes in consumer behavior and
by a balance of revenue growth and cash generation.

EVOLUTION OF PERFORMANCE METRICS FOR EXECUTIVE VARIABLE COMPENSATION

2011- 2013 2014- 2015 2016- 2017

EBITDA EBITDA
Balance between:
Cash Flow Cash Flow
Revenue Growth
Operating Costs Total Revenue Growth
and Cash Generaton
Market Share Market Share

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IP-PARTICIPAÇÕES

ABI also created three stock option programs to boost penetration of premium brands in the portfolio over

organic growth5: time and, lastly, new acquisitions – albeit with much

smaller relevance than past acquisitions.

• 2020 Incentive Plan: Created in December 2015

for 65 executives. 4.7 million options with their ABI versus Ambev

value subject to a target net revenue until 20226.

A small part of our ABI investment is through a long
• Long-term Stock Options Plan: Created in position in ABI and a short position in Ambev. Over
December 2017 for 50 executives. 18 million the past year, Ambev had a significant price-to-
options with their value subject to an annual earnings (P/E) multiple expansion while ABI’s multiple
organic EBITDA growth rate target until 2024. compressed, differing from historical standards, as

illustrated in the chart below:

• Incentive Plan for “Disruptive Growth”: Created

in December 2015 for executives in the innovation

HISTORICAL P/E MULTIPLES (NEXT 12 MONTHS)
department. They receive stock units based on a
28
minimum return rate of their projects.
26

The last stock option plan granted for a specific 24

22
purpose was in 2008 and 2009 when approximately
20
100 ABI executives received 33 million options with
18
their value subject to the company’s ability to reduce
16
its debt levels to 2.5x net debt/EBITDA by the end of
14
2013. The company ended 2013 at 2.3x.
aug/14

aug/15

aug/16

aug/17
aug/13

may/14

may/15

may/16

may/17
may/13

feb/14

feb/15

feb/16

feb/17

feb/18
nov/13

nov/14

nov/15

nov/16

nov/17
Multiple other factors will further help sustain growth AMBEV ABI

in the medium-term, such as the remaining synergies Source: Bloomberg (Best PE Ratio – Blended 12m FY)

from the SAB integration (US$1 billion remaining), the

roll-out of ABI’s global brands (Budweiser, Stella Artois,

and Corona) to SAB legacy regions7, the increasing

5
In addition to these three plans, there is another a stock option plan granted for the integration with SAB.
6
Target revenue is US$100 billion and can be achieved through acquisitions.
7
In 2017, the global brands represented circa 17% of volumes and almost 20% of revenues. In 2017, their revenues grew 9.8% (vs 5% of the total portfolio). Over half
of volumes and revenues originate outside their native markets. In 2017, the global brands grew 16.8% outside of their native markets, accelerating from 2016. The
native markets for Budweiser, Stella Artois, and Corona are United States, Belgium, and Mexico, respectively.

Investor Report | Jan - Apr 2018

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Ambev’s shares currently price in high expectations more exciting valuation level, of about 17x P/E, while
for volume recovery and margin improvements. having similar EBITDA growth prospects.
Considering such recovery in 2018, Ambev still trades
at around 26x P/E, a significant premium not only to The difference in valuation between the two

ABI but to other global consumer goods companies. companies and their main geographical contributions
This implies that ABI, excluding Ambev, trades at a to EBITDA are illustrated below:

KEY CHARACTERISTICS FOR ABI, AMBEV, AND ABI (EXCLUDING AMBEV)

20188 (in U$ billions) ABI Ambev ABI (excluding Ambev)9

Revenue 58,0 14,9 43,1

EBITDA 23,8 6,8 17,0

Tax Rate 24% 20%

Consolidated Net Income 11,6 4,2 7,4

Minorities -1,9 -0,2 -0,2

Net Income 9,7 4,0 7,2

Market Capitalization 189 106 123

Net Debt 102 -3 105

Net Debt/ EBITDA 4,3x -0,4x 6,2x

Price/Earnings 19,5x 26,4x 17,1x

8
ABI holds 61.9% of Ambev’s capital. Market capitalizations as of 04/30/2018. Considers an average FX rate of R$3.45.
9
Values calculated as ABI minus 100% of Ambev. Market capitalization considers ABI minus 61.9% of Ambev.

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EBITDA 2018 - ABI EBITDA 2018 - AMBEV EBITDA 2018 - ABI (EX-AMBEV)

-1% -1%
12% 10% 17%
26% 22%
32%
15%

21%
6%
21%
19% 68% 29%

Exports Canada Exports

United States & Canada Brazil, Dominican Republic United States

& Panama
Mexico, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Mexico, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador,
Honduras & El Salvador Argentina, Bolivia, Chile & Paraguay Honduras & El Salvador

Brazil, Dominican Republic Europe, Middle East e Africa

& Panama
Asia Pacific
Argentina, Bolivia, Chile & Paraguay

Europe, Middle East e Africa

Asia Pacific

Source: ABI. Smaller countries may not have been specifically mentioned.

The excessive optimism on Ambev’s operations operational excellence and ongoing improvements),

creates an opportunity to invest in the rest of ABI’s and profits at 8% per year, given the debt deleverage.

businesses at more interesting prices. Furthermore, Along the way, we shall receive dividends of around

as the Brazilian beer market is already reasonably 4% of the company’s current market value. We

mature, it is difficult to foresee long-term volume may even see potential acquisitions fostered by

growth above other developing markets within the ‘dream big’ culture. Overall, this is a good value

ABI’s portfolio. creation equation in a low-risk business run by

competent people.
4 6 8 + 4 Equation

In a broader horizon, we believe ABI can grow revenues

at 4% per year, EBITDA at 6% per year (through

Investor Report | Jan - Apr 2018

14
MISCELLANEOUS

“Yes, excessive automation at Tesla was a mistake. To be precise, my

mistake. Humans are underrated.”
— Elon Musk

“Excuse me. Next. Boring, bonehead questions are not cool.”

— Elon Musk

“I haven’t the faintest idea how Elon Musk will turn out, but he has a
considerable chance of success and considerable chance of failure. He
seems to like it that way.”
— Charlie Munger

“At Waymo, we are not just building a better car, we are building a
better driver. And that driver can be used in all kinds of applications, like
ride hailing, logistics, personal cars and connecting people to public
transportation. We see our technology as an enabler for all of these
different industries. And we intend to partner with lots of different
companies to make this self-driving future a reality for everyone.”
— John Krafcik

“Building a culture of high standards is well worth the effort, and

there are many benefits. Naturally and most obviously, you’re going
to build better products and services for customers – this would be
reason enough! Perhaps a little less obvious: people are drawn to high
standards – they help with recruiting and retention. More subtle: a
culture of high standards is protective of all the “invisible” but crucial
work that goes on in every company. I’m talking about the work that no
one sees. The work that gets done when no one is watching. In a high
standards culture, doing that work well is its own reward – it’s part of
what it means to be a professional. And finally, high standards are fun!
Once you’ve tasted high standards, there’s no
going back.”
— Jeff Bezos

Miscellaneous

15
 “The second best business to invest in is the one that generates lots of
cash flow. The best is the one that has an exceptional ability to spend
that cash flow well.”
— VC Investor

“Yesterday’s successes often hinder progress. Successful people are the

most difficult people to change.”
— Jack Ma

“We’re in an unprecedented situation in history in the sense that

nobody knows what the basics about how the world will look like
in 20 or 30 years. Not just the basics of geopolitics but what the job
market would look like, what kind of skills people will need, what family
structures will look like, what gender relations will look like. This means
that for the first time in history we have no idea what
to teach in schools.”
— Yuval Noah Harari

“U.S. cigarette consumption has dropped 44% since 1981. Altria stock is
up 71,000% since 1981. Investing is hard.”
— Morgan Housel

Brian Chesky (CEO of Airbnb) to Jeff Bezos: “Jeff, what’s the best
advice Warren Buffett ever gave you?”
Bezos: “[I asked Warren,] your investment thesis is so simple… you’re
the second richest guy in the world, and it’s so simple. Why doesn’t
everyone just copy you?”
Buffett: “Because nobody wants to get rich slow.”

Investor Report | Jan - Apr 2018

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