Aswath Damodaran 113

ESTIMATING CASH FLOWS

Cash is king…
 Steps in Cash Flow Estimation
114

¨ Estimate the current earnings of the firm

¤ If looking at cash flows to equity, look at earnings after interest
expenses - i.e. net income
¤ If looking at cash flows to the firm, look at operating earnings after
taxes
¨ Consider how much the firm invested to create future growth
¤ If the investment is not expensed, it will be categorized as capital
expenditures. To the extent that depreciation provides a cash flow, it
will cover some of these expenditures.
¤ Increasing working capital needs are also investments for future
growth
¨ If looking at cash flows to equity, consider the cash flows from
net debt issues (debt issued - debt repaid)

Aswath Damodaran
114
 Measuring Cash Flows
115

Cash flows can be measured to

Just Equity Investors

All claimholders in the firm

EBIT (1- tax rate) Net Income Dividends

- ( Capital Expenditures - Depreciation) - (Capital Expenditures - Depreciation) + Stock Buybacks
- Change in non-cash working capital - Change in non-cash Working Capital
= Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) - (Principal Repaid - New Debt Issues)
- Preferred Dividend

Aswath Damodaran
115
 Measuring Cash Flow to the Firm: Three
pathways to the same end game
116

Where are the tax savings from interest expenses?

Aswath Damodaran
116
117 Cash Flows I
Accounting Earnings, Flawed but Important

Aswath Damodaran
 From Reported to Actual Earnings
118

Operating leases R&D Expenses

Firmʼs Comparable - Convert into debt - Convert into asset
history Firms - Adjust operating income - Adjust operating income

Normalize Cleanse operating items of

Earnings - Financial Expenses
- Capital Expenses
- Non-recurring expenses

Measuring Earnings

Update
- Trailing Earnings
- Unofficial numbers

Aswath Damodaran
118
 I. Update Earnings
119

¨ When valuing companies, we often depend upon financial

statements for inputs on earnings and assets. Annual reports are
often outdated and can be updated by using-
¤ Trailing 12-month data, constructed from quarterly earnings reports.
¤ Informal and unofficial news reports, if quarterly reports are unavailable.
¨ Updating makes the most difference for smaller and more volatile
firms, as well as for firms that have undergone significant
restructuring.
¨ Time saver: To get a trailing 12-month number, all you need is one
10K and one 10Q (example third quarter). Use the Year to date
numbers from the 10Q. For example, to get trailing revenues from
a third quarter 10Q:
¤ Trailing 12-month Revenue = Revenues (in last 10K) - Revenues from first 3
quarters of last year + Revenues from first 3 quarters of this year.

Aswath Damodaran
119
 II. Correcting Accounting Earnings
120

¨ Make sure that there are no financial expenses mixed in with

operating expenses
¤ Financial expense: Any commitment that is tax deductible that you have to
meet no matter what your operating results: Failure to meet it leads to
loss of control of the business.
¤ Example: Operating Leases: While accounting convention treats operating
leases as operating expenses, they are really financial expenses and need
to be reclassified as such. This has no effect on equity earnings but does
change the operating earnings
¨ Make sure that there are no capital expenses mixed in with the
operating expenses
¤ Capital expense: Any expense that is expected to generate benefits over
multiple periods.
¤ R & D Adjustment: Since R&D is a capital expenditure (rather than an
operating expense), the operating income has to be adjusted to reflect its
treatment.

Aswath Damodaran
120
 The Magnitude of Operating Leases
121

Operating Lease expenses as % of Operating Income

60.00%

50.00%

40.00%

30.00%

20.00%

10.00%

0.00%
Market Apparel Stores Furniture Stores Restaurants

Aswath Damodaran
121
 Dealing with Operating Lease Expenses
122

¨ Operating Lease Expenses are treated as operating expenses

in computing operating income. In reality, operating lease
expenses should be treated as financing expenses, with the
following adjustments to earnings and capital:
¨ Debt Value of Operating Leases = Present value of Operating
Lease Commitments at the pre-tax cost of debt
¨ When you convert operating leases into debt, you also create
an asset to counter it of exactly the same value.
¨ Adjusted Operating Earnings
¤ Adjusted Operating Earnings = Operating Earnings + Operating Lease
Expenses - Depreciation on Leased Asset
As an approximation, this works:
¤ Adjusted Operating Earnings = Operating Earnings + Pre-tax cost of
Debt * PV of Operating Leases.

Aswath Damodaran
122
 Operating Leases at The Gap in 2003
123

¨ The Gap has conventional debt of about $ 1.97 billion on its balance sheet and its
pre-tax cost of debt is about 6%. Its operating lease payments in the 2003 were
$978 million and its commitments for the future are below:
Year Commitment (millions) Present Value (at 6%)
1 $899.00 $848.11
2 $846.00 $752.94
3 $738.00 $619.64
4 $598.00 $473.67
5 $477.00 $356.44
6&7 $982.50 each year $1,346.04
¨ Debt Value of leases = $4,396.85 (Also value of leased asset)
¨ Debt outstanding at The Gap = $1,970 m + $4,397 m = $6,367 m

¨ Adjusted Operating Income = Stated OI + OL exp this year - Deprec’n

= $1,012 m + 978 m - 4397 m /7 = $1,362 million (7 year life for assets)
¨ Approximate OI = $1,012 m + $ 4397 m (.06) = $1,276 m

Aswath Damodaran
123
 The Collateral Effects of Treating Operating
Leases as Debt
124

! Conventional!Accounting! Operating!Leases!Treated!as!Debt!
Income!Statement! !Income!Statement!
EBIT&&Leases&=&1,990& EBIT&&Leases&=&1,990&
0&Op&Leases&&&&&&=&&&&978& 0&Deprecn:&OL=&&&&&&628&
EBIT&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&=&&1,012& EBIT&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&=&&1,362&
Interest&expense&will&rise&to&reflect&the&
conversion&of&operating&leases&as&debt.&Net&
income&should&not&change.&
Balance!Sheet! Balance!Sheet!
Off&balance&sheet&(Not&shown&as&debt&or&as&an& Asset&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&Liability&
asset).&Only&the&conventional&debt&of&$1,970& OL&Asset&&&&&&&4397&&&&&&&&&&&OL&Debt&&&&&4397&
million&shows&up&on&balance&sheet& Total&debt&=&4397&+&1970&=&$6,367&million&
&
Cost&of&capital&=&8.20%(7350/9320)&+&4%& Cost&of&capital&=&8.20%(7350/13717)&+&4%&
(1970/9320)&=&7.31%& (6367/13717)&=&6.25%&
Cost&of&equity&for&The&Gap&=&8.20%& &
After0tax&cost&of&debt&=&4%&
Market&value&of&equity&=&7350&
Return&on&capital&=&1012&(10.35)/(3130+1970)& Return&on&capital&=&1362&(10.35)/(3130+6367)&
&&&&&&&&&=&12.90%& &&&&&&&&&=&9.30%&
&

Aswath Damodaran
124
 The Magnitude of R&D Expenses
125

R&D as % of Operating Income

60.00%

50.00%

40.00%

30.00%

20.00%

10.00%

0.00%
Market Petroleum Computers

Aswath Damodaran
125
 R&D Expenses: Operating or Capital Expenses
126

¨ Accounting standards require us to consider R&D as an

operating expense even though it is designed to
generate future growth. It is more logical to treat it as
capital expenditures.
¨ To capitalize R&D,
¤ Specify an amortizable life for R&D (2 - 10 years)
¤ Collect past R&D expenses for as long as the amortizable life
¤ Sum up the unamortized R&D over the period. (Thus, if the
amortizable life is 5 years, the research asset can be obtained by
adding up 1/5th of the R&D expense from five years ago, 2/5th
of the R&D expense from four years ago...:

Aswath Damodaran
126
 Capitalizing R&D Expenses: SAP
127

¨ R & D was assumed to have a 5-year life.

Year R&D Expense Unamortized Amortization this year
Current 1020.02 1.00 1020.02
-1 993.99 0.80 795.19 € 198.80
-2 909.39 0.60 545.63 € 181.88
-3 898.25 0.40 359.30 € 179.65
-4 969.38 0.20 193.88 € 193.88
-5 744.67 0.00 0.00 € 148.93
Value of research asset = € 2,914 million
Amortization of research asset in 2004 = € 903 million
Increase in Operating Income = 1020 - 903 = € 117 million

Aswath Damodaran
127
 The Effect of Capitalizing R&D at SAP
128

! Conventional!Accounting! R&D!treated!as!capital!expenditure!
Income!Statement! !Income!Statement!
EBIT&&R&D&&&=&&3045& EBIT&&R&D&=&&&3045&
.&R&D&&&&&&&&&&&&&&=&&1020& .&Amort:&R&D&=&&&903&
EBIT&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&=&&2025& EBIT&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&=&2142&(Increase&of&117&m)&
EBIT&(1.t)&&&&&&&&=&&1285&m& EBIT&(1.t)&&&&&&&&=&1359&m&
Ignored&tax&benefit&=&(1020.903)(.3654)&=&43&
Adjusted&EBIT&(1.t)&=&1359+43&=&1402&m&
(Increase&of&117&million)&
Net&Income&will&also&increase&by&117&million&&
Balance!Sheet! Balance!Sheet!
Off&balance&sheet&asset.&Book&value&of&equity&at& Asset&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&Liability&
3,768&million&Euros&is&understated&because& R&D&Asset&&&&2914&&&&&Book&Equity&&&+2914&
biggest&asset&is&off&the&books.& Total&Book&Equity&=&3768+2914=&6782&mil&&
Capital!Expenditures! Capital!Expenditures!
Conventional&net&cap&ex&of&2&million& Net&Cap&ex&=&2+&1020&–&903&=&119&mil&
Euros&
Cash!Flows! Cash!Flows!
EBIT&(1.t)&&&&&&&&&&=&&1285&& EBIT&(1.t)&&&&&&&&&&=&&&&&1402&&&
.&Net&Cap&Ex&&&&&&=&&&&&&&&2& .&Net&Cap&Ex&&&&&&=&&&&&&&119&
FCFF&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&=&&1283&&&&&& FCFF&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&=&&&&&1283&m&
Return&on&capital&=&1285/(3768+530)& Return&on&capital&=&1402/(6782+530)&
Aswath Damodaran
128
 III. One-Time and Non-recurring Charges
129

¨ Assume that you are valuing a firm that is reporting a

loss of $ 500 million, due to a one-time charge of $ 1
billion. What is the earnings you would use in your
valuation?
a. A loss of $ 500 million
b. A profit of $ 500 million
¨ Would your answer be any different if the firm had
reported one-time losses like these once every five
years?
a. Yes
b. No

Aswath Damodaran
129
 IV. Accounting Malfeasance….
130

¨ Though all firms may be governed by the same accounting

standards, the fidelity that they show to these standards can vary.
More aggressive firms will show higher earnings than more
conservative firms.
¨ While you will not be able to catch outright fraud, you should look
for warning signals in financial statements and correct for them:
¤ Income from unspecified sources - holdings in other businesses that are
not revealed or from special purpose entities.
¤ Income from asset sales or financial transactions (for a non-financial firm)
¤ Sudden changes in standard expense items - a big drop in S,G &A or R&D
expenses as a percent of revenues, for instance.
¤ Frequent accounting restatements
¤ Accrual earnings that run ahead of cash earnings consistently
¤ Big differences between tax income and reported income

Aswath Damodaran
130
 V. Dealing with Negative or Abnormally Low
Earnings
131
A Framework for Analyzing Companies with Negative or Abnormally Low Earnings

Why are the earnings negative or abnormally low?

Temporary Cyclicality: Life Cycle related Leverage Long-term

Problems Eg. Auto firm reasons: Young Problems: Eg. Operating
in recession firms and firms with An otherwise Problems: Eg. A firm
infrastructure healthy firm with with significant
problems too much debt. production or cost
problems.

Normalize Earnings

If firmʼs size has not If firmʼs size has changed

changed significantly over time
Value the firm by doing detailed cash
over time
flow forecasts starting with revenues and
reduce or eliminate the problem over
time.:
(a) If problem is structural: Target for
Use firmʼs average ROE (if
Average Dollar operating margins of stable firms in the
valuing equity) or average
Earnings (Net Income sector.
ROC (if valuing firm) on current
if Equity and EBIT if (b) If problem is leverage: Target for a
BV of equity (if ROE) or current
Firm made by debt ratio that the firm will be comfortable
BV of capital (if ROC)
the firm over time with by end of period, which could be its
own optimal or the industry average.
(c) If problem is operating: Target for an
industry-average operating margin.

Aswath Damodaran
131
132 Cash Flows II
Taxes and Reinvestment

Aswath Damodaran
 What tax rate?
133

¨ The tax rate that you should use in computing the after-
tax operating income should be
a. The effective tax rate in the financial statements (taxes
paid/Taxable income)
b. The tax rate based upon taxes paid and EBIT (taxes paid/EBIT)
c. The marginal tax rate for the country in which the company
operates
d. The weighted average marginal tax rate across the countries in
which the company operates
e. None of the above
f. Any of the above, as long as you compute your after-tax cost of
debt using the same tax rate

Aswath Damodaran
133
 The Right Tax Rate to Use
134

¨ The choice really is between the effective and the marginal

tax rate. In doing projections, it is far safer to use the
marginal tax rate since the effective tax rate is really a
reflection of the difference between the accounting and the
tax books.
¨ By using the marginal tax rate, we tend to understate the
after-tax operating income in the earlier years, but the after-
tax tax operating income is more accurate in later years
¨ If you choose to use the effective tax rate, adjust the tax rate
towards the marginal tax rate over time.
¤ While an argument can be made for using a weighted average
marginal tax rate, it is safest to use the marginal tax rate of the country

Aswath Damodaran
134
 A Tax Rate for a Money Losing Firm
135

¨ Assume that you are trying to estimate the after-tax

operating income for a firm with $ 1 billion in net
operating losses carried forward. This firm is expected to
have operating income of $ 500 million each year for the
next 3 years, and the marginal tax rate on income for all
firms that make money is 40%. Estimate the after-tax
operating income each year for the next 3 years.
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
EBIT 500 500 500
Taxes
EBIT (1-t)
Tax rate
Aswath Damodaran
135
 Net Capital Expenditures
136

¨ Net capital expenditures represent the difference

between capital expenditures and depreciation.
Depreciation is a cash inflow that pays for some or a
lot (or sometimes all of) the capital expenditures.
¨ In general, the net capital expenditures will be a
function of how fast a firm is growing or expecting to
grow. High growth firms will have much higher net
capital expenditures than low growth firms.
¨ Assumptions about net capital expenditures can
therefore never be made independently of
assumptions about growth in the future.
Aswath Damodaran
136
 Capital expenditures should include
137

¨ Research and development expenses, once they have been

re-categorized as capital expenses. The adjusted net cap ex
will be
¤ Adjusted Net Capital Expenditures = Net Capital Expenditures +
Current year’s R&D expenses - Amortization of Research Asset
¨ Acquisitions of other firms, since these are like capital
expenditures. The adjusted net cap ex will be
¤ Adjusted Net Cap Ex = Net Capital Expenditures + Acquisitions of other
firms - Amortization of such acquisitions
¨ Two caveats:
1. Most firms do not do acquisitions every year. Hence, a normalized
measure of acquisitions (looking at an average over time) should be
used
2. The best place to find acquisitions is in the statement of cash flows,
usually categorized under other investment activities

Aswath Damodaran
137
 Cisco’s Acquisitions: 1999
138

Acquired Method of Acquisition Price Paid

GeoTel Pooling $1,344
Fibex Pooling $318
Sentient Pooling $103
American Internet Purchase $58
Summa Four Purchase $129
Clarity Wireless Purchase $153
Selsius Systems Purchase $134
PipeLinks Purchase $118
Amteva Tech Purchase $159
$2,516

Aswath Damodaran
138
 Cisco’s Net Capital Expenditures in 1999
139

Cap Expenditures (from statement of CF) = $ 584 mil

- Depreciation (from statement of CF) = $ 486 mil
Net Cap Ex (from statement of CF)= $ 98 mil
+ R & D expense = $ 1,594 mil
- Amortization of R&D = $ 485 mil
+ Acquisitions = $ 2,516 mil
Adjusted Net Capital Expenditures = $3,723 mil

¨ (Amortization was included in the depreciation number)

Aswath Damodaran
139
 Working Capital Investments
140

¨ In accounting terms, the working capital is the difference

between current assets (inventory, cash and accounts
receivable) and current liabilities (accounts payables,
short term debt and debt due within the next year)
¨ A cleaner definition of working capital from a cash flow
perspective is the difference between non-cash current
assets (inventory and accounts receivable) and non-debt
current liabilities (accounts payable)
¨ For firms in some sectors, it is the investment in working
capital that is the bigger part of reinvestment.

Aswath Damodaran
140
 Working Capital: General Propositions
141

1. Working Capital Detail: While some analysts break down

working capital into detail (inventory, deferred taxes,
payables etc.), it is a pointless exercise unless you feel that
you can bring some specific information that lets you
forecast the details.
2. Working Capital Volatility: Changes in non-cash working
capital from year to year tend to be volatile. So, building of
the change in the most recent year is dangerous. It is better
to either estimate the change based on working capital as a
percent of sales, while keeping an eye on industry averages.
3. Negative Working Capital: Some firms have negative non-
cash working capital. Assuming that this will continue into
the future will generate positive cash flows for the firm and
will get more positive as growth increases.

Aswath Damodaran
141
 Volatile Working Capital?
142

Amazon Cisco Motorola

Revenues $ 1,640 $12,154 $30,931
Non-cash WC -$419 -$404 $2547
% of Revenues -25.53% -3.32% 8.23%
Change from last year $ (309) ($700) ($829)
Average: last 3 years -15.16% -3.16% 8.91%
Average: industry 8.71% -2.71% 7.04%
My Prediction
WC as % of Revenue 3.00% 0.00% 8.23%

Aswath Damodaran
142
143 Cash Flows III
From the firm to equity

Aswath Damodaran
 Dividends and Cash Flows to Equity
144

¨ In the strictest sense, the only cash flow that an investor

will receive from an equity investment in a publicly
traded firm is the dividend that will be paid on the stock.
¨ Actual dividends, however, are set by the managers of
the firm and may be much lower than the potential
dividends (that could have been paid out)
¤ managers are conservative and try to smooth out dividends
¤ managers like to hold on to cash to meet unforeseen future
contingencies and investment opportunities
¨ When actual dividends are less than potential dividends,
using a model that focuses only on dividends will under
state the true value of the equity in a firm.

Aswath Damodaran
144
 Measuring Potential Dividends
145

¨ Some analysts assume that the earnings of a firm represent its

potential dividends. This cannot be true for several reasons:
¤ Earnings are not cash flows, since there are both non-cash revenues and
expenses in the earnings calculation
¤ Even if earnings were cash flows, a firm that paid its earnings out as
dividends would not be investing in new assets and thus could not grow
¤ Valuation models, where earnings are discounted back to the present, will
over estimate the value of the equity in the firm
¨ The potential dividends of a firm are the cash flows left over after
the firm has made any “investments” it needs to make to create
future growth and net debt repayments (debt repayments - new
debt issues)
¤ The common categorization of capital expenditures into discretionary and
non-discretionary loses its basis when there is future growth built into the
valuation.

Aswath Damodaran
145
 Estimating Cash Flows: FCFE
146

¨ Cash flows to Equity for a Levered Firm

Net Income
- (Capital Expenditures - Depreciation)
- Changes in non-cash Working Capital
- (Principal Repayments - New Debt Issues)
= Free Cash flow to Equity
¨ I have ignored preferred dividends. If preferred stock
exist, preferred dividends will also need to be netted
out

Aswath Damodaran
146
 Estimating FCFE when Leverage is Stable
147

Net Income
- (1- DR) (Capital Expenditures - Depreciation)
- (1- DR) Working Capital Needs
= Free Cash flow to Equity
DR = Debt/Capital Ratio
For this firm,
¤ Proceeds from new debt issues = Principal Repayments + d
(Capital Expenditures - Depreciation + Working Capital Needs)
¨ In computing FCFE, the book value debt to capital ratio
should be used when looking back in time but can be
replaced with the market value debt to capital ratio,
looking forward.
Aswath Damodaran
147
 Estimating FCFE: Disney
148

¨ Net Income=$ 1533 Million

¨ Capital spending = $ 1,746 Million
¨ Depreciation per Share = $ 1,134 Million
¨ Increase in non-cash working capital = $ 477 Million
¨ Debt to Capital Ratio (DR) = 23.83%
¨ Estimating FCFE (1997):
Net Income $1,533 Mil
- (Cap. Exp - Depr)*(1-DR) $465.90 [(1746-1134)(1-.2383)]
Chg. Working Capital*(1-DR) $363.33 [477(1-.2383)]
= Free CF to Equity $ 704 Million

Dividends Paid $ 345 Million

Aswath Damodaran
148
 FCFE and Leverage: Is this a free lunch?
149

Debt Ratio and FCFE: Disney

1600

1400

1200

1000
FCFE

800

600

400

200

0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Debt Ratio

Aswath Damodaran
149
 FCFE and Leverage: The Other Shoe Drops
150

Debt Ratio and Beta

8.00

7.00

6.00

5.00
Beta

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Debt Ratio

Aswath Damodaran
150
 Leverage, FCFE and Value
151

¨ In a discounted cash flow model, increasing the debt/equity

ratio will generally increase the expected free cash flows to
equity investors over future time periods and also the cost of
equity applied in discounting these cash flows. Which of the
following statements relating leverage to value would you
subscribe to?
a. Increasing leverage will increase value because the cash flow effects
will dominate the discount rate effects
b. Increasing leverage will decrease value because the risk effect will be
greater than the cash flow effects
c. Increasing leverage will not affect value because the risk effect will
exactly offset the cash flow effect
d. Any of the above, depending upon what company you are looking at
and where it is in terms of current leverage

Aswath Damodaran
151