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Bayes Theorem PDF

Bayes' Theorem describes how to calculate the conditional probability of an event B given that event A has occurred, using the probabilities of events A and B and the conditional probabilities of A given B and B given A. An example is provided to demonstrate calculating the probability that a randomly selected defective bolt came from the first manufacturing machine using the relevant probabilities from the problem statement. The document concludes with an exercise problem for the reader to practice applying Bayes' Theorem.

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AbhishekSingh
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186 views1 page

Bayes Theorem PDF

Bayes' Theorem describes how to calculate the conditional probability of an event B given that event A has occurred, using the probabilities of events A and B and the conditional probabilities of A given B and B given A. An example is provided to demonstrate calculating the probability that a randomly selected defective bolt came from the first manufacturing machine using the relevant probabilities from the problem statement. The document concludes with an exercise problem for the reader to practice applying Bayes' Theorem.

Uploaded by

AbhishekSingh
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Statistics:

Bayes’ Theorem
Bayes’ Theorem (or Bayes’ Rule) is a very famous theorem in statistics. It was originally stated by the
Reverend Thomas Bayes.

If we have two events A and B, and we are given the conditional probability of A given B, denoted
P(A|B), we can use Bayes’ Theorem to find P(B|A), the conditional probability of B given A.

P(A|B)P(B)
Bayes’ Theorem: P(B|A) =
P(A|B)P(B) + P(A|B0 )P(B0 )

where P(B0 ) is the probability of B not occurring.

Example:
Q: In a factory there are two machines manufacturing bolts. The first machine manufactures 75%
of the bolts and the second machine manufactures the remaining 25%. From the first machine 5%
of the bolts are defective and from the second machine 8% of the bolts are defective. A bolt is se-
lected at random, what is the probability the bolt came from the first machine, given that it is defective?

A:
Let A be the event that a bolt is defective and let B be the event that a bolt came from Machine 1.
Check that you can see where these probabilites come from!
P(B) = 0.75 P(B0 ) = 0.25 P(A|B) = 0.05 P(A|B0 ) = 0.08
Now, use Bayes’ Theorem to find the required probability:

P(A|B)P(B)
P(B|A) =
P(A|B)P(B) + P(A|B0 )P(B0 )

0.05 × 0.75
=
0.05 × 0.75 + 0.08 × 0.25

= 0.3846

Try this:
Exercise: Among a group of male pensioners, 10% are smokers and 90% are nonsmokers. The proba-
bility of a smoker dying in the next year is 0.05 while the probability for a nonsmoker is 0.005. Given
one of these pensioners dies in the next year, what is the probability that he is a smoker?

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