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1
Principles and Methodologies

for the Determination of Shelf–Life in Foods
Antonio Valero1, Elena Carrasco1,2 and Rosa Ma García-Gimeno1
1University of Cordoba
2Centro Tecnológico del Cárnico (TEICA)
Spain
1. Introduction
The establishment of validated methodologies for the determination of food shelf-life is
currently demanded by both food industries and Health Authorities at national and
international scale. It is well known that most foods are perishable, since they are subjected
to modifications in their structure, composition and properties during storage before
consumption. These changes are of physico-chemical origin attributed to food composition
together with the action of intrinsic and extrinsic environmental factors, and also
microbiological, where spoilage flora play an important role. These modifications are
“translated into“ sensorial deterioration at a specific time point. In this respect, food-borne
bacteria, despite representing a threat for consumers´ health, do not affect sensorial changes.
Product “shelf-life” is defined, according to the American Heritage Dictionary of the English
Language (Mifflin, 2006) as “the term or period during which a stored commodity remains
effective, useful, or suitable for consumption”. But, which is understood by “unsuitable”?
Mifflin (2006) defines “unsuitability” as “the quality of having the wrong properties for a
specific purpose”. To know which is wrong and which is fine is not a straightforward
question to answer, and often is subjected to individual perceptions. This issue is discussed
later. Anyway, whichever the method to detect the unsuitability of a food product, once it is
detected and established, its cause should be sought. Among the different elements which
constitute and characterize a food product, generally only one is the responsible for the
unsuitability of a product, namely, “the specific cause of unsuitability”. With this, going
back to the definition of shelf-life, we could redefine “product shelf-life” in the food field as
“the term or period a product may be stored before a specific element of the product makes
it unsuitable for use or consumption”. This element could be of biological or physico-
chemical nature.
In the last years, different procedures have been reported for the establishment of shelf-life,
mainly based on the detection of microbial alteration, as well as physico-chemical and
sensorial changes. The traditional approach consists of setting a cut-off point along the
storage period at the time when any of the measured attributes exceeds a pre-established
limit. Experimental work usually includes the storage of food product at different
temperatures, performance of microbial analysis and the assesssment of spoilage by
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4 Trends in Vital Food and Control Engineering
sensorial testing. In the case of foods whose shelf-lives might be conditioned by the presence
and proliferation of pathogenic microorganisms, experiments also involve challenge testing
with the target organism prior to storage. The cut-off point has been traditionally referred as
quality limit (if deterioration of food is known to be produced by physico-chemical
changes), or safety limit (if deteriorarion of food is due to the presence of nocive chemical
substances and/or pathogenic microorganisms, parasites or virus at levels of concern). This
method is usually labour-intensive and expensive.
Regarding microbiological proliferation of spoilage and/or pathogenic microorganisms,
predictive microbiology is recognized as a reliable tool for providing an estimation of the
course of the bacteria in the foods, and indirectly, provide an estimation of shelf-life of the
product in the cases when the cause of food spoilage or unacceptability is known to be
microbiological. Indeed, mathematical modelling is a science-based discipline which aims to
explain a reality with a few variables, and whose applications have been extended beyond
research as a real added-value industrial application (Brul et al., 2007; McMeekin et al., 2002;
Peleg, 2006; McMeekin, 2007).
The main concept behind the application of predictive microbiology for the determination of
shelf-life based on spoilage is the specific spoilage organisms (SSO), which are associated to
sensorial changes and spoilage. As such, the end of shelf-life can be defined as the time
needed for SSO to multiply from an initial contamination level to a spoilage level, or the
time invested by SSO to produce a certain metabolite causing sensorial rejection
(Koutsoumanis & Nychas, 2000). In the case of pathogens, challenge test protocols are
available for the determination of kinetic parameters (named maximum growth rate [µmax]
and lag time [lag]) of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat foods (SANCO, 2008). In
addition, European Regulation No. 2073/2005, recommends the performance of predictive
microbiology studies in order to investigate compliance with the criteria throughout the
shelf-life. In particular, this applies to ready-to-eat foods that are able to support the growth
of L. monocytogenes and that may pose a L. monocytogenes risk for public health. In general,
proliferation of pathogens for which absence is required although might be present in foods,
growth/no growth models are generally accepted as useful tools for the determination of
the probability of growth, whereas those pathogens for which hazardous levels (i.e. Bacillus
cereus) or toxin-producing organisms (i.e. Staphylococcus aureus) have been set, growth
kinetic models are more appropriate to estimate the time until reaching such levels.
Quality, in a very broad sense, means satisfaction of consumers´ expectations; in other words,
quality experience delivered by a food should match quality expectations of a consumer (van
Boekel, 2008). Quality aspects of foods, such as colour, nutrient content, chemical composition
etc., are governed by biochemical reactions (oxidation, Maillard reactions, enzyme activity)
together with physical changes (aggregation of proteins, coalescence, sedimentation etc.). As
for microbials, there are kinetic models for quality attributes. However, these models only
provide a representation of single biochemical reactions within a well-diluted ideal system;
thus, they are not easily extrapolated to other more complex matrices like foods.
Sensory testing is designed to validate the length of time that a product will remain with the
same “acceptable quality” level or presents “no changes in desired sensory characteristics”
over the entire life of a product (IFTS, 1993; Kilcast & Subramaniam, 2000). Some product
properties are difficult to measure objectively. Moreover, instrumental measurement alone
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Principles and Methodologies for the Determination of Shelf–Life in Foods 5
cannot indicate consumer acceptability or rejection. It is very important to ensure no

changes in sensory properties of foods during their shelf-lives, since consumers pay for a
unconsciously established set of desired sensory characteristics.
Fig. 1. Deterioration processes during food storage (adapted from Huis in`t Veld, 1996)
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A unifying description of the interaction between microflora behaviour and physico-

chemical changes undertaken in a food, represents a special challenge for food technologists.
Such an integrated understanding of the interactions occurring during food storage should
motivate the development of alternative preservation systems. A schematic representation
of these phenomena is presented in Figure 1.
Throughout this chapter, the principles and methodologies for the establishment of shelf-life
of foodstuffs are discussed. Also microbial, sensorial and physico-chemical parameters
influencing shelf-life are analyzed. Subsequently, foods testing for data generation as well as
procedures for assessment of shelf-life are reviewed. Finally, we will present some
comments on future prospects.
2. Environmental factors affecting microbial shelf-life

Food spoilage is greatly influenced by environmental conditions concerning the food matrix,
microbial characteristics, temperature, pH, water activity (aw), processing time, etc. The main
objective of studying the influence of environmental factors in food preservation is to inhibit
spoilage due to microbial survival and growth and/or occurrence of chemical reactions. For
this, a number of factors must be evaluated for different foods which could play an important
role in the Hazard Analysis and of Critical Control Points (HACCP) system.
Regarding microbial growth, environmental conditions can affect largely the microbial load
along the food chain. They can be classified as:
- Physical factors, such as temperature, food matrix.
- Chemical factors, such as pH, preservatives, etc.
- Biological factors, such as competitive flora, production of metabolites or inhibiting
compounds etc.
- Processing conditions affecting foods (slicing, mixing, removing, washing, shredding
etc.) as well as influencing transfer of microorganisms (cross-contamination events).
The application of one these factors alone can produce the desired effect on the food in
terms of quality and safety, but this is not usual, especially in processed, ready-to-eat or
perishable foods. Generally, the establishment of an adequate combination of more than one
factor at moderate levels can offer the same result, but an improvement of the sensorial
characteristics is achieved. This is the basic idea underlying the hurdle technology concept
stated by Leistner (1995). Increasing the severity of one factor alone could produce a
negative effect on food quality (e.g. chilling injury), while a moderate combination of several
factors can lead to a shelf-life increase maintaining the original sensorial properties. For
instance, in meat products, barriers such as the addition of salt, nitrite, modified atmosphere
packaging, etc., can reduce the survival of pathogens (if present) and the proliferation of
lactic acid bacteria during shelf-life.
2.1 Intrinsic factors

2.1.1 Microbiological quality of raw materials
Raw material entering the food industry represents a potential source of microbial
contamination. The potential growth of pathogens and spoilage flora will be affected by the
initial level of contamination and the efficacy of processing steps in eliminating bacteria in
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the food. Figure 2 represents the effect of various initial contamination levels on shelf-life of
foods. At high contamination levels, less time would be needed by SSOs to reach the
minimum spoilage level, thus, shelf-life would have to be reduced.
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
log cfu/g
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5 Shortening of shelf-life

2.0
1.5
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Time (d)
Fig. 2. Effect of the microbial initial contamination on shelf-life in a food.
A better raw material quality in terms of microbial contamination can be achieved by setting
out a more strict suppliers control at primary production level, and optimizing sampling
schemes. With an initial good quality of raw materials, processing operations, formulation
of foods and storage conditions, shelf-life of foods could be extended.
2.1.2 pH and acidity

A widely used preservation method consists of increasing the acidity of foods either
through fermentation processes or the addition of weak acids. The pH is a measure of the
product acidity and is a function of the hydrogen ion concentration in the food product. It is
well known that groups of microorganisms have pH optimum, minimum and maximum for
growth in foods. Bacteria normally grow faster between pH ranges of 6.0 - 8.0, yeasts
between 4.5 - 6.0 and moulds between 3.5 - 4.0.
An important characteristic of a food is its buffering capacity, i.e. its ability to resist changes
in pH. Foods with a low buffering capacity will change pH quickly in response to acidic or
alkaline compounds produced by microorganisms, whereas foods with high buffering
capacity are more resistant to such changes. In any case, if low pH is a factor included in the
preservation system of a food, control of pH and the application of a margin of safety are
required for these foods.
2.1.3 Water activity (aw)

The requirements for moisture by microorganisms are expressed in terms of water activity
(aw). The aw is therefore one of the most important properties of food governing microbial
growth and is defined as the free or available water in a food product (Fennema, 1996).
Thus, the aw of a food describes the fraction of water “not bounded” to the components of a
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food, i.e. the fraction of “available” water to participate in chemical/biochemical reactions

and promote microbial survival and growth.
As for pH, control of aw and the application of a margin of safety are required for these food
products whose preservation system includes low aw. Microorganisms respond differently
to aw depending on a number of factors. These factors can modify the minimum and
maximum aw values to grow. Generally, Gram (-) bacteria are more sensitive to changes in
aw than Gram (+) bacteria. The growth of most foodborne pathogens is inhibited at aw
values below 0.86.
2.1.4 Redox potential (Eh)

The oxidation-reduction potential (Eh) of a food is the ease by which it gains or loses
electrons (Jay, 1992). The Eh value at which microorganisms will grow determines whether
they require oxygen (i.e. aerobic/microaerophilic environment) for growth or not (i.e.
anaerobic environment). According to their Eh value, microorganisms can be classified into
the three following groups:
Aerobes +500 to +300 mV;
Anaerobes +100 to -250 mV; and
Facultative anaerobes +300 to -100 mV
Although Eh as inhibitory factor is especially important in meat products (Leistner, 2000),
product safety control should not solely focus on this factor since its measurement is
subjected to limitations. Indeed, the Eh values are highly variable depending on the pH of
the food, extent of microbial growth, packaging conditions, oxygen partial pressure in the
storage environment, and ingredients. Measurement requirements for Eh in foods are
reported by Morris (2000).
2.1.5 Biological structure

The natural surfaces of foods usually provide high protection against the entry and
subsequent damage by spoilage organisms. External layers of seeds, the outer covering of
fruits, and the eggshell are examples of biological protective structures. Several factors can
influence the penetration of organisms through these barriers: (i) the maturity of plant foods
enhances the effectiveness of the protective barriers; (ii) physical damage due to handling
during harvest, transport, or storage, as well as invasion of insects can allow the penetration
of microorganisms (Mossel et al., 1995); (iii) during the preparation of foods, processes such
as slicing, chopping, grinding, and shucking destroy the physical barriers, thus favouring
contamination inside the food.
Eggs can be seen as a good example of an effective biological structure that, when intact,
will prevent external microbial contamination of the perishable yolk. Contamination by
Salmonella, one of the most prevalent contaminant, is possible through transovarian infection
before this shell structure is established. Additional factor is the egg white and its
antimicrobial components. When there are cracks through the inner membrane of the egg,
microorganisms may further penetrate into the egg. Factors such as storage temperature,
relative humidity, age of eggs, and level of surface contamination will influence the
internalization of microorganisms.
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2.1.6 Antimicrobial constituents

Food products may contain substances (i.e. antimicrobial constituents) which have
antimicrobial properties against the growth of specific microorganisms. There is a wide
variety of substances with recognized antimicrobial activity in a wide variety of food
products. Other antimicrobial constituents in food products are added as preservatives.
Some forms of food processing will also result in the formation of antimicrobial substances
in food products including:
- Smoking, e.g. fish and meat products;
- Fermentation, e.g. meat and dairy products;
- Condensation reactions between sugars and amino acids (i.e. Maillard reaction) during
heating of certain foods.
2.1.7 Competitive flora (biopreservation)

Biopreservation techniques are the result of the development of a microorganism which
may have an antagonistic effect on the microbial activity of other undesired microorganisms
present in the food product (Mossel et al., 1995). There has been an increasing interest in
biopreservation treatments in minimally processed foods in order to guarantee food safety
whilst maintaining organoleptical properties.
Antagonistic processes include competition for essential nutrients, changes in pH value or
Eh or the formation of antimicrobial substances like bacteriocins, which may negatively
affect the survival or growth of other microorganisms (Huis in’t Veld et al., 1996).
Bacteriocins have been widely recognized as natural food biopreservatives, and latest
advances on bacteriocin research have opened new fields to explore their role (García et al.,
2010). The use of competitive microorganisms such as lactic acid bacteria against L.
monocytogenes has been proven as a useful preservation technique in several food products
(Brillet et al., 2005).
2.2 Extrinsic factors

2.2.1 Time/temperature conditions
All microorganisms have a defined temperature range within which they can grow. This
range is limited by a minimum temperature needed for growth and a maximum
temperature which does not support the growth. While the growth speed increases with
increasing temperature, it tends to decline rapidly after the optimum temperature has been
reached. An understanding of the interplay between time, temperature, and other intrinsic
and extrinsic factors is crucial to select appropriate storage conditions for a food product.
Temperature has a dramatic impact on the growth of microorganisms. Time plays an
important role as a factor facilitating (long time) or avoiding (short time) the growth of
microorganisms during food storage.
At low temperatures, two phenomena avoid microbial growth:
- Intracellular reactions, which become much slower; and
- Fluidity of the cytoplasmic membrane, interfering with transport mechanisms (Mossel
et al., 1995).
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At temperatures above the maximum temperature, structural cell components become

denatured and heat-sensitive enzymes are inactivated.
2.2.2 Gas composition

Many scientific studies have demonstrated the antimicrobial activity of gases at ambient and
sub-ambient pressures in foods (Loss & Hotchkiss, 2002). The oxygen availability is related
to the Eh and plays a role in product packaging, together with CO2 concentration. A variety
of common technologies are used to inhibit the growth of microorganisms, and a majority of
these methods have shown high inhibitory effect when applied with low temperatures.
Technologies include Modified Atmosphere Packaging (MAP), Controlled Atmosphere
Packaging (CAP), Controlled Atmosphere Storage (CAS) or Direct Addition of Carbon
Dioxide (DAC) (Loss & Hotchkiss, 2002).
An adequate packaging formulation in food products should extend shelf-life without
affecting their sensorial properties. In general, the inhibitory effect of CO2 increases at low
temperatures due to the fact that solubility of CO2 becomes higher (Jay, 2000). Also, a
synergistic effect has been observed when CO2 has been applied together with low pH. The
major concern when extending the shelf-life of a product by MAP is that the inhibition of
spoilage bacteria could allow the proliferation of foodborne pathogens as they do not
compete for nutrients or physical space anymore, and consequently foods, in spite of
presenting an acceptable sensorial quality, may be unsafe.
There are several additional intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting the efficacy of
antimicrobial atmospheres, such as product temperature, product-to-headspace gas volume
ratio, initial microbial load, package barrier properties, biochemical composition of the food,
etc. By combining antimicrobial atmospheres with other preservation techniques, further
enhancement of food quality and safety can be achieved (Leistner, 2000).
2.2.3 Relative humidity (RH)

Relative humidity (RH) is the quantity of moisture in the atmosphere surrounding a food
product whether packaged or not. It is calculated as a percentage of the humidity required
to completely saturate the atmosphere (i.e. saturation humidity). Typically, there will be an
exchange of moisture between a food product and the surrounding atmosphere which
continues until the food reaches equilibrium.
The RH is closely related with aw and may actually alter the aw of a food. It is important to
assure that the product is stored with an environment where the RH prevents aw changes.
For example, if the aw of a food is set at 0.60 to assure its stability, it is important that this aw
value remains during storage by establishing adequate RH conditions so that the food does
not pick up moisture from the ambient air. When foods with low RH values are placed in
environments of high RH, they pick up moisture until equilibrium is established. Likewise,
foods with high aw lose moisture when placed in an environment of low RH.
Determining the appropriate storage/packaging conditions for a food product is therefore
essential for food safety and quality assurance. It is important to note that RH is related to
temperature during storage (Esse & Humidipack, 2004).
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2.2.4 Consumer practices

Consumer practices during dispatch, storage and use of food products in the home are
obviously outside the control of food industries. However, food industries should take
account of poor consumer handling in the establishment of product shelf-life, at least, those
known to be popular. For example, many domestic refrigerators do not operate at
refrigeration temperatures between 0-5ºC, being above this range; this can greatly affect the
safety of food products and shorten their shelf-life (Carrasco et al., 2007). Food industries
should wisely establish food shelf-lives according to real temperature records of domestic
refrigerators, and not to theoretical refrigeration temperatures.
3. Role of spoilage microorganisms in foods

Foods are dynamic systems which experience changes in pH, atmosphere, nutrient
composition and microflora over time. Each food product has its own unique flora,
determined by the raw materials used, food processing parameters and subsequent storage
conditions. The growth of SSOs in perishable foods is largely affected by several
environmental factors already explained in the Section 2.
The main purpose of the application of one or a combination of intrinsic and extrinsic
factors on a food product is to destroy and/or inhibit SSOs and pathogenic
microorganisms, thus providing a more extended shelf-life, or to improve the sensorial
characteristics of the food.
The microorganisms dominating a product can be predicted by understanding how the
major preservation parameters affect microbial selection. The identification of SSOs are very
important for the calculation of the remaining shelf-life of a given food product (Gram et al.,
2002). Some examples are Lactobacillus sakei in cooked meat products (Devlieghere et al.,
2001), Photobacterium phosphoreum, Shewanella spp and Pseudomonas spp in fishery products
(Dalgaard et al., 1997; Gram and Dalgaard, 2002), Brochothrix thermosphacta in precooked
chicken (Patsias et al., 2006), or gram negative bacteria in fresh-cut (Rico et al., 2007).
It is crucial to introduce quantitative considerations (Gram, 1989) since the spoilage activity
of an organism is its quantitative ability to produce spoilage metabolites (Dalgaard, 1995;
Dalgaard et al., 1993). In other words, it is necessary to evaluate if the levels of a particular
organism reached in naturally spoiled foods are capable of producing the amount of
metabolites associated with spoilage. In general, it requires a careful combination of
microbiology, sensory analyses and chemistry to determine which microorganism(s) are the
SSOs of a particular food product.
It is generally known that almost all microbial groups include species that could cause
spoilage in a given food under specific conditions. Initially, different populations are
present in a contaminated food, and some groups become more predominant after a certain
storage period. This selection might depend on several physico-chemical factors (as
discussed previously) and processing and storage conditions. For instance, in meat products
stored at aerobic conditions, Pseudomonas spp. can produce metabolites and slime formation,
but in an anaerobic atmosphere, the predominant SSOs are shift to lactic-acid bacteria,
producing lactic acid and decreasing pH.
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Vegetables are a special case due to the nutrient composition. The high pH (usually close to
neutrality) will allow a range of Gram-negative bacteria to grow, but spoilage is specifically
caused by organisms capable of degrading the vegetable polymer, pectin (Liao et al., 1997).
These organisms, typically Erwinia spp. and Pseudomonas spp. are the SSO of several ready-
to-eat vegetable products (Lund, 1992); also pectin degrading fungi can play a role in
vegetable products (Pitt & Hocking, 1997). However, when decreasing pH due to the
addition of organic acids in minimally processed fruits and vegetables, growth of fungi,
yeasts and lactic-acid bacteria become the SSOs (Edwards et al., 1998).
After identification of the SSOs and the range of environmental conditions under which a
particular SSO is responsible for spoilage, the next step in microbial shelf-life establishment
is the decision about the microbial level of SSO above which spoilage occurs and shelf-life
ends (Dalgaard, 1995; Koutsoumanis & Nychas, 2000). This step often requires a good
understanding of the microbial evolution as a function of time. Initially, SSO is present in
low quantities and constitutes only a minor part of the natural microflora. During storage,
SSO generally produce the metabolites responsible for off-odours, off-flavours slime and
finally cause sensory rejection. The cell concentration of SSO at rejection may be called the
Minimal Spoilage Level (MSL) and the concentration of metabolites corresponding to
spoilage is named Chemical Spoilage Index (CSI) (Dalgaard, 1993).
An example of these concepts is presented in Figure 3. In this case, the evolution of SSO
together with histamine content occurs during storage of a seafood product. If MSL is set at
4 log cfu/g (if this limit is proven to cause food spoilage), the established shelf-life would be
4.2 days. However, this limit is largely different if the results are based on the histamine
content, because if CSI is set at 200 ppm, the shelf-life would be 8.8 days. Generally, shelf-
life may be determined based on the parameter that firstly produces alteration, in this
example, microbial growth.
6.5 300
6.0
250
Histamine concentration (ppm)
5.5
CSI
5.0 200
log cfu/g
4.5
MSL 150
4.0
3.5 100
3.0
50
2.5
2.0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Time (d)
Spoilage Specific Organisms (SSO) Microbial load Histamine concentration
Fig. 3. Theoretical growth of SSO together with evolution of histamine content in a seafood
product. MSL (Microbial Spoilage Level), CSI (Chemical Spoilage Index).
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The limit of microbial growth that determines shelf-life differs according to the food type
and storage conditions. SSO counts from 105 to 108 cfu/g are commonly considered as
convenient quality limits. For microorganisms which produce toxins, 105 cfu/g has been
established as a limit for risk management in processed foods (Rho & Schaffner, 2007). The
time to reach hazardous levels by pathogens should determine the shelf-life limit. In these
cases, shelf-life is greatly influenced by the initial contamination level. Thus, hygienic
control measures must be taken in order to prevent their presence in raw material and
processed food products.
Several studies relate limits for microbial groups defining the end of shelf-life with specific
food products. In this sense, 107 cfu/g has been chosen for aerobic bacteria in minced chicken
meat (Grandinson & Jennings, 1993), freshwater crayfish (Wang & Brown, 1983), or fresh-cut
lettuce (Koseki & Ito, 2002). For other microbial groups such as coliforms in cottage cheese,
yeasts in shredded chicory endive, or mesophilic bacteria in fresh-cut spinach, limit levels of
102, 105 or 108 cfu/g, respectively, have been proposed (Babic & Watada, 1996; Jacxsens et al.,
2001; Mannheim & Soffer, 1996). To set these limits, a thorough knowledge about the
particular microbial ecology and deterioration causes of foods during storage is required.
In relation with the microbiological limits previously mentioned, Regulation (EC) No.
2073/2005 regarding microbiological criteria in foodstuffs sets out two groups of criteria:
- Food safety criteria which define the acceptability of a product or a batch. They are
applicable to foodstuffs placed on the market and throughout the shelf-life of the food.
- Process hygiene criteria which define the acceptability of the process. These apply only
during the manufacturing process.
Other microbiological criteria for the end of shelf-life have been suggested by International
Guidelines in Ready-To-Eat (RTE) foods. Some guidance documents are mainly focused on
the study of growth of L. monocytogenes (SANCO, 2008) while other more general reports
assess the microbiological quality of RTE foods placed in the market (Health Protection
Agency, 2009; Refrigerated Food Association, 2009) or recommend specific principles to
food industries (Food Safety Authority of Ireland, 2005; New Zealand Food Safety
Authority, 2005). All of them establish microbiological criteria by specifying numerical
limits, or admissible log increases during shelf-life.
4. Mathematical modelling of bacterial growth

It is a goal of food microbiologists to know in advance the behavior of microorganisms in
foods under foreseeable conditions. If it was possible to predict the growth/survival/
inactivation of a microorganisms at given fixed conditions, it would be possible to
systematically establish a shelf-life based on bacterial behaviour. The development of
mathematical models describing the behavior of microorganisms under established
conditions satisfactorily fulfill the challenge proposed. Already in 1921, Bigelow (1921)
described the logarithm nature of thermal death, but it was not until the 1980s when
mathematical models for predicting bacterial behavior experienced a great development. A
new field emerged in the food microbiology area: “predictive microbiology”, or as redefined
recently, “modeling of microbial responses in foods”. McKellar & Lu (2004a) presented a
detailed review of predictive models published so far. Since primary to tertiary models,
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mathematical models have been extensively applied, in part due to the predictive friendly-
software developed, where most models are implemented.
The advent of computer technology and associated advances in computational power have
made possible to perform complex mathematical calculations that otherwise would be too
time-consuming for useful applications in predictive microbiology (Tamplin et al., 2004).
Computer software programs provide an interface between the underlying mathematics
and the user, allowing model inputs to be entered and estimates to be observed through
simplified graphical outputs. Behind predictive software programs are the raw data upon
which the models are built. Some of the most popular software are: GInaFiT (Geeraerd, et
al., 2005), where different inactivation models are available (http://cit.kuleuven.be/ biotec/
downloads.php); DMFit (Baranyi & Roberts, 1994), with implementation of a dynamic
growth primary model (http://www.combase.cc/index.php/en/downloads/category/11-
dmfit); Pathogen Modeling Program (Buchanan, 1993), which incorporates a variety of
models of different pathogens in broth culture and foods (http://pmp.arserrc.gov/
PMPOnline.aspx); Seafood Spoilage and Safety Predictor (SSSP) (Dalgaard et al., 2002),
offering models for specific spoilage microorganisms and also for L. monocytogenes in
seafood (http://sssp.dtuaqua.dk/); ComBase (Baranyi & Tamplin, 2004), a predictive tool
for important foodborne pathogenic and spoilage microorganisms (http://
www.combase.cc / index.php/en/predictive-models); Sym´Previus (Leporq et al., 2005), a
tool with a collection of models and data to be applied in the food industry context, e.g.
strengthening HACCP plans, developing new products, quantifying microbial behavior,
determining shelf-lives and improving safety (http://www.symprevius.net/); Microbial
Responses Viewer (Koseki, 2009), a new database consisting of microbial growth/no growth
data derived from ComBase, and also modelling of the specific growth rate of
microorganisms as a function of temperature, pH and aw (http:// mrv. nfri.
affrc.go.jp/Default.aspx#/About); Escherichia coli fermented meat model (Ross & Shadbolt,
2004), describing the rate of inactivation of Escherichia coli, due to low aw or pH or both, in
fermented meats (http://www.foodsafetycentre.com.au/fermenter.php).
In a further step, a number of software called expert systems have been developed to
provide more complex decision support based on a set of rules and algorithms for inference
based on the relationships underlying these rules. In these systems, the core knowledge is
stored as a series of IF-THEN rules that connect diverse evidence such as user input, data
from databases, and the formalized opinions of experts into a web of knowledge. There are
various examples of decision-support systems which encapsulate knowledge that is based in
predictive microbiology, such as those applied in predicting food safety and shelf-life
(Witjes et al., 1998; Zwietering et al., 1992); a step-wise system structured as a standard risk
assessment process to assist in decisions regarding microbiological food safety (van Gerwen
et al., 2000); or other systems for microbial processes described by Voyer & McKellar (1993)
and Schellekens et al. (1994).
Whiting & Buchanan (1994) called the above integrated software models-based “tertiary
models”. They defined tertiary-level models as personal computer software packages that
use the pertinent information from primary- and secondary-level models to generate desired
graphs, predictions and comparisons. “Primary-level models” describe the change in
microbial numbers over time, and “secondary-level models” indicate how the features of
primary models change with respect to one or more environmental factors, such as pH,
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temperature and aw. Below is a description of the most relevant primary and secondary
models, as well as their uses and scope.
4.1 Primary models

Primary models aim to describe the kinetics of the process (growth or survival or
inactivation) with as few parameters as possible, while still being able to accurately define
the distinct stages of the process.
In the context of foods shelf-life, the process observed depends on the group of
microorganisms studied (e.g. total aerobic flora, lactic acid bacteria, Enterobacteriaceae, etc.)
and the characteristics and storage conditions of foods (e.g. presence of antimicrobials like
nitrites, aw, pH, temperature of storage, atmosphere inside the food package, etc.). Often,
different groups of microorganisms behave differently in the same food product. For
example, in fermented meat products, it is usual to observe growth of lactic acid bacteria
against the survival or inactivation of other bacteria groups (González & Díez, 2002; Moretti
et al., 2004; Rubio et al., 2007).
The application of primary models to a set of microbiological data proceeds as follows. In a
first step, a mathematical model is assumed to explain the data, that is, how microbial
counts change over time. In a second step, such model is fitted to microbiological data by
means of regression (linear or non-linear). As a consequence of the fitting process, estimates
for a number of kinetics parameters embedded in the model is provided, for example, for
the rate of growth/inactivation or lag time (in growth processes) or “shoulder” (in
inactivation processes). The dataset used to fit the model is assumed to be obtained under
specific intrinsic and extrinsic factors. For this reason, the kinetic parameters provided after
fitting solely apply for the specific intrinsic and extrinsic factors characterizing the dataset.
Several primary models have been published. Below is described the most important
models used for growth and survival/inactivation.
4.1.1 Growth models

The first book devoted exclusively to the field of predictive microbiology (McMeekin et al.,
1993) provide an excellent review and discussion of the classical sigmoid growth functions,
especially the modified logistic and Gompertz equations. As they point out, these are
empirical applications of the original logistic and Gompertz functions. Over the last years, a
new generation of bacterial growth curve models have been developed that are purported to
have a mechanistic basis: for example, the Baranyi model (Baranyi et al., 1993; Baranyi et al.,
1994), the Hills model (Hills & Mackey, 1995; Hills & Wright, 1996), the Buchanan model
(Buchanan et al., 1997), and the heterogeneous population model (McKellar, 1997).
a. Sigmoidal functions such as the modified logistic (Equation 1) and the modified
Gompertz (Equation 2) introduced by Gibson et al. (1987), have been the most popular
ones used to fit microbial growth data since these functions consist of four phases,
 
similar to the microbial growth curve.
Logx  t   A  C / 1  e(  B(t  M )) 
 
(1)
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
Logx  t   A  Cexp exp B  t  M    (2)
where x(t) is the number of cells at time t, A is the lower asymptotic value as t decreases to
zero, C is the difference between the upper and lower asymptote, M is the time at which the
absolute growth rate is maximum, and B is the relative growth rate at M.
The parameters of the modified Gompertz equation (A, C, B and M) can be used to
characterize bacterial growth as follows:
lag  M – 1 / B   LogN  0   A  /  BC / e   (3)
specific growth rate  BC / e »BC / 2.18 (4)
In order to simplify the fitting process, reparameterized versions of the Gompertz equation
 
have been proposed (Zwietering et al., 1990; Willox et al., 1993):
  
Log 10 x  A  Cexp exp  2.71 Rg / C    t   1

(5)
where A = log10 x0 (log10 cfu x ml-1), x0 is the initial cell number, C the asymptotic increase in
population density (log10 cfu x ml-1), Rg the growth rate (log10 cfu h-1), and is the lag-phase
duration (h).
Although used extensively, some authors (Whiting & Cygnarowicz-Provost, 1992; Baranyi,
1992; Dalgaard et al., 1994; Membré et al., 1999) reported that the Gompertz equation
systematically overestimated growth rate compared with the usual definition of the
maximum growth rate. Note that there is also no correspondence between the lower
asymptote and the inoculum size x0. Baty et al. (2004), while comparing the ability of
different primary models to estimate lag time, found that the Gompertz model is perhaps
the least consistent. Nevertheless, this model is one of the most widely used to fit bacterial
curves, notably by the Pathogen Modeling Program (Buchanan, 1993).
b. Baranyi et al. (1993) and Baranyi & Roberts (1994, 1995) introduced a mechanistic model
for bacterial growth (Equation 6). In this model, it is assumed that during lag phase,
bacteria need to synthesize an unknown substrate q critical for growth. Once cells have
adjusted to the environment, they grow exponentially until limited by restrictions
dictated by the growth medium.
  x(t )  
  max   1     x(t )
m
dx q( t )
dt q(t )  1   xmax  
(6)

where x is the number of cells at time t, xmax the maximum cell density, and q(t) is the
concentration of limiting substrate, which changes with time (Equation 7). The parameter m
characterizes the curvature before the stationary phase. When m = 1 the function reduces to
a logistic curve, a simplification of the model that is often assumed.
 max  q(t )
dq
(7)
dt
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The initial value of q (q0) is a measure of the initial physiological state of the cells. A more
stable transformation of q0 may be defined as:
 1
h0  ln  1    max 
 0 
(8)
q
Thus, the final model has four parameters: x0, the initial cell number; h0; xmax; and µmax. The
parameter h0 describes an interpretation of the lag first formalized by Robinson et al. (1998).
Using the terminology of Robinson et al (1998), h0 may be regarded as the “work to be done”
by the bacterial cells to adapt to their new environment before commencing exponential
growth at the rate, max, characteristic of the organism and the environment. The duration of
the lag, however, also depends on the rate at which this work is done which is often
assumed to be max.
c. Hills & Mackey (1995) and Hills & Wright (1996) developed a theory of spatially
dependent bacterial growth in heterogeneous systems, in which the transport of
nutrients was described by the combination a structured-cell kinetic model with
reaction-diffusion equations. The total biomass in the culture M at a time t is dependent
on time and a rate constant A (Equation 9), while the total number of cells in the culture
N depends on time and the rate constants A and Kn (Equation 10).
M  t   M  0  exp  At  (9)
N  t   N  0  K nexp  At   Aexp  K nt   /  A  K n  (10)
The rate constants A and Kn depend on all the environment factors. The lag time and the
doubling time have the following relationships:
tLAG  A1  log 1   A / Kn  (11)
tLAG / tD   ln 2 1 log 1   A / Kn  (12)
This shows that if the rate constants A and Kn have similar activation energies, the ratio of
lag to doubling time (tD) should be nearly independent of temperature. This model takes no
account of possible lag behavior in the total biomass (M).
Hills model can also be generalized to spatially inhomogeneous systems such as food
surfaces (Hills & Wright, 1996). If more detailed kinetic information on cell composition is
available, more complex multicompartment kinetic schemes can be incorporated.
d. Buchanan et al. (1997) proposed a three-phase linear model. It can be described by three
phases: lag phase, exponential growth phase and stationary phase, described as follows:
Lag phase:
For t  tLAG , N t  N 0 (13)
Exponential growth phase:
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For tLAG  t  t MAX , N t  N 0  µ  t – tLAG  (14)
Stationary phase:
For t  t MAX , N t  N MAX (15)
where Nt is the log of the population density at time t (log cfu ml-1); N0 the log of the initial
population density (log cfu ml-1); NMAX the log of the maximum population density
supported by the environment (log cfu ml-1); t the elapsed time; tLAG the time when the lag
phase ends (h); and µ is the maximum growth rate (log cfu ml-1 h-1).
In this model, the growth rate was always at maximum between the end of the lag phase
and the start of the stationary phase. The µ was set to zero during both the lag and
stationary phases. The lag was divided into two periods: a period for adaptation to the new
environment (ta) and the time for generation of energy to produce biological components
needed for cell replication (tm).
e. McKellar model assumes that bacterial population exists in two “compartments” or
states: growing or nongrowing. All growth was assumed to originate from a small
fraction of the total population of cells that are present in the growing compartment at t
= 0. Subsequent growth is based on the following logistic equation:
 G 
 G   1  
dG
 MAX 
(16)
dt N
where G is the number of growing cells in the growing compartment. The majority of cells
were considered not to contribute to growth, and remained in the nongrowing
compartment, but were included in the total population. While this is an empirical model, it
does account for the observation that growth in liquid culture is dominated by the first cells
to begin growth, and that any cells that subsequently adapt to growth are of minimal
importance (McKellar, 1997). The model derives from the theory that microbial populations
are heterogeneous rather than homogeneous, existing two populations of cells that behave
differently; the sum of the two populations effectively describes the transition from lag to
exponential phase, and defines a new parameter G0, the initial population capable of
growing. Reparameterization of the model led to the finding that a relationship existed
between µmax and as described in Baranyi model. In fact, Baranyi & Pin (2001) stated that
the initial physiological state of the whole population could reside in a small subpopulation.
Thus, the McKellar model constitutes a simplified version of the Baranyi model, and has the
same parameters.
The concept of heterogeneity in cell populations was extended further to the development of
a combined discrete-continuous simulation model for microbial growth (McKellar & Knight,
2000). At the start of a growth simulation, all of the cells were assigned to the nongrowing
compartment. A distribution of individual cell lag times was used to generate a series of
discrete events in which each cell was transferred from nongrowing to the growing
compartment at a time corresponding to the lag time for that cell. Once in the growing
compartment, cells start growing immediately according to Equation 16. The combination of
the discrete step with the continuous growth function accurately described the transition
from lag to exponential phase.
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At the present time it is not possible to select one growth model as the most appropriate
representation of bacterial growth (McKellar & Lu, 2004b). If simple is better, then the three-
phase model is probably sufficient to represent fundamental growth parameters accurately
(Garthright, 1997). The development of more complex models (and subsequently more
mechanistic models) will depend on an improved understanding of cell behavior at the
physiological level.
4.1.2 Survival/inactivation models

Models to describe microbial death due to heating have been used since the 1920s, and
constitute one of the earliest forms of predictive microbiology. Much of the early work
centered on the need to achieve the destruction of Clostridium botulinum spores. This type of
models has undertaken great advances from the classical linear inactivation model to others
more sophisticated nonlinear models.
a. The classical linear model assumes that inactivation is explained by a simple first-order
reaction kinetics under isothermal conditions (Equation 17):
 K St
dSt
(17)
dt
where St is the survival ratio (Nt/N0) and k´ is the rate constant. Thus the number of
surviving cells decreases exponentially:
St  e k´t (18)
and when expressed as log10, gives:
logSt   kt (19)
where k = k´/ln 10. The well-known D-value (time required for a 1-log reduction) is thus
equal to 1/k, where k is the slope. The D-value can also be expressed as:
D  value 
t
log N 0  log N t
(20)
When log D-values are plotted against the corresponding temperatures, the reciprocal of the
slope is equal to the z-value, which is the increase in temperature required for a 1-log
decrease in D-value. The rate constant can also be related to the temperature by the
Arrhenius equation:
 Ea 
 
k  N 0 e RT 
(21)
where Ea is the activation energy, R the universal gas constant, and T is the temperature in
Kelvin degrees.
Extensive work has been performed to calculate D-values and the z-value for most pathogens
in broth culture and different food matrices (Mazzota, 2001; Murphy et al., 2002; van Asselt
& Zwietering, 2006).
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b. Although the concept of logarithmic death is still applied, nonlinear curves have been
reported for many years, i.e. curves exhibiting a “shoulder” region at the beginning of
the inactivation curve and/or a “tail” region at the end of the inactivation curve.
Stringer et al. (2000) summarized the possible explanations for this behavior. Some of
them are the variability in heating procedure, the use of mixed cultures, clumping,
protective effect of dead cells, multiple hit mechanisms, natural distribution of heat
sensitivity or heat adaptation.
We now know that cells do not exist simply as alive or dead, but may also experience
various degrees of injury or sublethal damage, which may give rise to apparent nonlinear
survival curves (Stringer et al., 2000). Survival modeling should also include a more
complete understanding of the molecular events underpinning microbial resistance to the
environment.
As heterogeneity is the most plausible reason for observing nonlinearity, the use of
distributions to account for this nonlinearity such as gamma (Takumi et al., 2006) or Weibull
(Coroller et al., 2006; van Boekel, 2002) have been suggested; from these, Weibull is the
favored approach at the moment.
Also, “mirror images” of the primary growth models described above have been used to
explain the inactivation process, such as the “mirror image” of the logistic function (Cole et al.,
1993; Pruitt et al., 1993; Whiting, 1993), the “mirror image” of the Gompertz function (Linton et
al., 1995) and the “mirror image” of the Baranyi model (Koutsoumanis et al., 1999).
4.2 Secondary models

These models predict the changes in the parameters of primary models such as bacterial
growth rate and lag time as a function of the intrinsic and extrinsic factors. A description of
the most popular secondary models is provided below. Two different approaches can be
distinguished: i) the effects of the environmental factors are described simultaneously
through a polynomial function; this type of model has probably been the most extensively
used within predictive microbiology; and ii) the environmental factors are individually
modeled, and a general model describes the combined effects of the factors; this approach is
notably applied in the development of the increasingly popular square root and cardinal
parameter-type models.
4.2.1 Polynomial models

Polynomial models describe the growth responses ( max, lag) or their transformations
(√( max), ln( max), …) through a polynomial function. An example of a polynomial model is
that proposed by McClure et al. (1993) for Brochothrix thermosphacta:
ln( max )  a0  a1T  a2 pH  a3 (%NaCl )  a4T  pH  a5T (%NaCl ) 

 a6 pH (%NaCl )  a7T 2  a7T 2  a8 pH 2  a9 (%NaCl )2
(22)
Polynomial models allow in almost every case the development of a model describing the
effect of any environmental factor including interactions between factors. Moreover, the fit
of polynomial models does not require the use of advanced techniques such as the non-
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linear regression. The disadvantages of polynomial models lie in the high number of
parameters and their lack of biological significance.
4.2.2 Square root-type

Temperature was the first environmental factor taken into account in square root-type
models. Based on the observation of a linear relationship between temperature and the
square root of the bacterial growth rate in the suboptimal temperature range, Ratkowsky et
al. (1982) proposed the following function:
max  b(T  Tmin ) (23)
where b is a constant, T is the temperature and Tmin the theoretical minimum temperature for
growth. This equation was extended to describe the effect of temperature in the entire
temperature range allowing bacterial growth, the so-called ‘biokinetic range’ (Ratkowsky et
al., 1983):
max  b(T  Tmin )  1  exp  c T  Tmax    (24)
where Tmax is the theoretical maximum temperature for growth and c a model parameter
without biological meaning. These models were extended to take into account other
environmental factors such as pH and water activity. McMeekin et al. (1987) proposed the
following equation to describe the combined effects of temperature (suboptimal range) and
water activity on the growth rate of Staphylococcus xylosus:
max  b(T  Tmin )  aw  aw min  (25)
where awmin is the theoretical minimum water activity for growth. More recently, square root
models have also been expanded to include, for example, the effects of CO2, (Devlieghere et
al., 1998) or pH and lactic acid concentration (Presser et al., 1997; Ross et al., 2003).
4.2.3 The gamma concept and the cardinal parameter model

Zwietering et al. (1992) proposed a model called “Gamma model”, describing the growth
rate relative to its maximum value at optimal conditions for growth:
max   opt  T    pH    aw  (26)
where µopt is the growth rate at optimum conditions, and γ(T), γ(pH), γ(aw) are the relative
effects of temperature, pH and aw, respectively. The concept underlying this model
(“Gamma concept”) is based on the following assumptions: i) the effect of any factor on
the growth rate can be described, as a fraction of opt, using a function (γ) normalized
between 0 (no growth) and 1 (optimum condition for growth); and ii) the environmental
factors act independently on the bacterial growth rate. Consequently, the combined effects
of the environmental factors can be obtained by multiplying the separate effects of each
factor (see Equation 26). Ross & Dalgaard (2004) considered that while this apparently
holds true for growth rate under conditions where growth is possible, environmental
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factors do interact synergistically to govern the biokinetic ranges for each environmental
factor.
At optimal conditions for growth, all γ terms are equal to 1 and therefore max is equal to opt.
The γ terms proposed by Zwietering et al. (1992) for the normalized effects of temperature,
pH and aw are given in Equations 16 to 18.
 T T 
 T    
2
 Topt  Tmin 
min
 
(27)
pH  pH min
  pH  
pH opt  pH min
(28)
aw  aw min
 ( aw) 
1  aw min
(29)
γ-type terms for pH and lactic acid effects on growth rate were also included in square root-
type models by Presser et al. (1997) and Ross et al. (2003).
Introduced by Rosso et al. (1993, 1995), the cardinal parameter models (CPMs) were also
developed according to the Gamma concept. The relative effects of temperature, pH and aw
on the bacterial growth rate are described by a general model called CPMn:

0 X  X min
  X  X max   X  X min 
,

CM n  X   
    X  X opt    X opt  X max    n  1  X opt  X min  nX 
, X min  X  X max
 X opt  X min
n1
 X opt  X min
(30)
 
 0 , X  X max
where X is temperature, pH or aw. Xmin and Xmax are respectively the values of X below and
above which no growth occur. Xopt is the value of X at which bacterial growth is optimum. n
is a shape parameter. As for the “Gamma model” of Zwietering et al. (1992), CMn(Xopt) is
equal to 1, CMn(Xmin) and CMn(Xmax) are equal to 0.
For the effects of temperature and pH, n is set to 2 and 1 respectively (Augustin et al., 2000a,
2000b; Le Marc et al., 2002; Pouillot et al., 2003 Rosso et al., 1993, 1995). For the effects of aw,
n is set to 2 (Augustin et al., 2000a, 2000b; Rosso & Robinson, 2001). The combined effects of
the environmental factors are also obtained by multiplying the relative effects of each factor.
Thus, the Cardinal Parameter Model for the effects of temperature, pH and aw on max can be
written as:
max  opt CM2 (T )CM1 ( pH ) CM 2 ( aw ) (31)
or alternatively:
max  opt CM2 (T )CM1 ( pH ) CM1 ( aw ) (32)
In many ways, CPMs resemble the square root model. Responses predicted by the two types
of models can be almost identical (Oscar, 2002; Ross & Dalgaard, 2004; Rosso et al., 1993,
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1995). The advantages of the CPMs lie in the lack of structural correlation between
parameters and the biological significance of all parameters (Rosso et al., 1995).
Several attempts have been made to include in CPMs the effects of organic acids (Augustin
et al., 2000a, 200b; Coroller et al., 2003; Le Marc et al., 2002) or other inhibitory substances
(Augustin et al., 2000a, 200b).
4.2.4 Artificial neural networks

“Black boxes” such as artificial neural networks are an alternative to the models above and
have been used to develop secondary growth (or lag time) models (Garcia-Gimeno et al,
2002, 2003, Geeraerd et al., 1998). For further details on the principles of this method in the
context of predictive microbiology, consult Hajmeer et al. (1997), Hajmeer & Basher (2002,
2003).
4.2.5 Probabilistic models

Probabilistic growth/no growth models can be seen as a logic continuation of the kinetic
growth models. If environmental conditions are getting more stressful, growth rate is
decreasing until zero and lag phase is increasing until eternity or at least longer than the
period of experimental data generation. At these conditions, the boundary between growth
and no growth has been reached and the modeling needs to shift from a kinetic model to a
probabilistic model. The output of a probabilistic model will be the chance that a certain
event will take place within a certain given time under conditions specified by the user. The
period of time is an important criterion, as evolving from ‘no growth’ to ‘growth’ is, in many
cases, possible as long as the period of analysis is sufficiently extended.
In the case of probabilistic models, responses will be coded as either 0 (response not
observed) or 1 (response observed), under a specific set of conditions. If replicate
observations are performed at a specific condition, a probability between 0 and 100% will be
obtained. To relate this probability to the predictor variables, logistic regression is used
(McMeekin et al., 2000; Ratkowsky & Ross, 1995). The logit function is defined as:
LogitP  log  P /  1 – P   (33)
where P is the probability of the outcome of interest.

Logit P is commonly described as some function Y of the explanatory variables, i.e.:
LogitP  Y (34)
 
Equation 34 can be rearranged to:
1 / 1  e Y P
 
or
eY / 1  eY P
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where Y is the function describing the effects of the independent variables.

Several works have reported the application of probability models to different pathogens
and spoilage microorganisms in foods (Lanciotti et al., 2001; Membré et al., 2001; Stewart et
al., 2001).
5. Chemical spoilage
Chemical spoilage is mainly characterized by flavour and colour changes due to oxidation,
irradiation, lipolysis (rancid) and heat. These changes may be induced by light, metal ions or
excessive heat during processing or storage. Chemical processes may also bring physical
changes such as increased viscosity, gelation, sedimentation or color change.
Biochemical reactions during food storage are relevant for the appearance of sensorial
defects. Some of them are summarized as follows (Van Boekel, 2008):
- Lipid oxidation can lead to a loss of essential fatty acids and presence of rancidity,
mainly due to the presence of free fatty acids. This phenomenon is associated to
enzymatic oxidation, lipolysis, and discoloration.
- Non enzymatic and enzymatic browning can affect color, taste and aroma, nutritive
value, and can contribute to the formation of toxicologically suspect compounds
(acrylamide).
- Hydrolysis, lipolysis and proteolysis can cause changes in flavor, texture, vitamin
content and formation of bitter taste.
- Separation and gelation are physical phenomena associated to sedimentation, creaming,
gel formation and texture changes.
The first two processes normally characterize the majority of chemical spoilage phenomena
in foods, and are explained below.
5.1 Lipid oxidation

Lipid oxidation is one of the most common causes of deterioration of food quality.
Unsaturated fats are oxidized by free radical autoxidation, a chain reaction process
catalyzed by the products of the reaction. The susceptibility and the rate of oxidation
increase as the number of double bonds in the fatty acid increases.
Foods containing fat, e.g. milk, can undergo a number of subtle chemical and physical
changes caused by lipolysis. Lipolysis can be defined as the enzymatic hydrolysis of fats by
lipases. The accumulation of the reaction products, especially free fatty acids is responsible
for the common off-flavour, frequently referred to as rancidity.
Fat stabilization is based on the use of physical methods (controlling temperature and light
conditions during storage) and addition of antioxidants. In this sense, many foods or food
ingredients contain components which with antioxidant properties (King et al., 1993).
Examples of well known natural antioxidants are ascorbic acid, vitamin E (tocopherols),
carotenoids and flavonoids. Antioxidants inhibit lipid oxidation by acting as hydrogen or
electron donors, and interfere with the radical chain reaction by forming non radical
compounds.
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5.2 Non enzymatic and enzymatic browning

Non enzymatic browning resides in various chemical reactions occurring during food
processing and storage. It is related to the formation of brown compounds and volatile
substances that influence the sensorial quality of foods. Non enzymatic browning is in part
associated to Maillard reactions. These include a number of complex reactions that are
influenced by a large variety of factors (substrates nature, time/temperature combinations,
pH, aw, or presence of inhibitor compounds). Control and prevention measures of non
enzymatic browning are based on the elimination of substrates, control of physico-chemical
factors (shortening time and temperature, lowering pH) or addition of inhibitors such as
sulfites, which delay the presence of pigments by means of fixing intermediate reaction
products. Likewise, sulfites act against enzymatic browning and growth of microorganisms.
Thus, they are used as preservatives in grape juices, wine, dehydrated fruits and
concentrated juices.
Non enzymatic browning is a quality parameter for many dehydrated foods. For other
products such as baked goods, coffee, molasses, and some breakfast foods, browning is
desirable. However, in other foods browning is undesirable, decreasing the value or quality
of the product. The browning include: decreased nutritional value from protein loss, off-
flavor development, undesirable color, decreased solubility, textural changes, destruction of
vitamins and increased acidity (Franzen et al., 1990). Other effects are destruction of
essential amino acids such as lysine, formation of mutagenic compounds and modifications
in the antioxidant capacity of foods.
Enzymatic browning is defined as the enzymatic transformation, in presence of oxygen at
first stage, from phenolic compounds to colored polymers. Dark pigments formed as result
of these reactions are known as melanines. Enzymatic browning is produced in fruits
vegetables, which are rich in phenolic compounds, normally after harvesting and during
processing conditions (washing, peeling, chopping, etc.). Polyphenoloxidases (PPO) and
peroxidases found in fruit tissues can catalyze the oxidation of certain endogenous phenolic
compounds to quinones that polymerize to form intense brown pigments (Lewis &
Shibamoto, 1986).
Since enzymatic browning can cause important losses in agriculture production, control and
prevention of the principal mechanisms of these reactions are crucial. These methods are
based on the activity against enzymes, substrates and/or product reactions. Their use might
depend on the specific food to be considered, as well as other nutritional, technical,
economical, sensorial or ethical considerations.
6. Sensorial evaluation for determining shelf-life

As stated previously, sensorial evaluation is an essential task for establishing shelf-life of
food products. Once a food product is designed (composition, packaging, foreseeable
conditions of storage and use, target population), next step consists of estimating the period
of time during which the food maintains its original sensorial properties. An immediate
question arises from the last assertion: “how could I assess that sensorial properties do not
change along time?” In other words, “how can these differences be detected?”. There are
different sensory tests to provide answer to this question; they are named sensory difference
tests. However, at the same time, another question may come up to our minds: “Who should
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detect these difference (in case they are detectable)?”. This is not a straightforward question
to answer, as it greatly depends on the food quality management of the company. One could
think that trained panellists are the most appropriate to detect possible differences in
sensorial characteristics of foods during storage. After all, they are “sensorial instruments”.
However, actually, they do not represent the target population, and probably, target
population in general would not detect differences in such a perfect manner as trained
panellists would do. So, it is very important to design an adequate test fitted to the needs,
potential and politics of the company.
A sensory difference test allows for the possible distinction between various foods. In the
case of the application of these tests to shelf-life estimation, a distinction should be made
between the food under storage (at the foreseeable conditions) and the food just produced.
The most common sensory difference tests are the paired-comparison test, the duo-trio test,
and the triangle test (O´Mahony, 1985).
The paired-comparison difference test presents two samples to a judge who has to
determine which one has more of a given attribute (sweeter, spicier, et.). Should he
consistently pick the right sample over replicate tests, it would indicate that he can
distinguish between the two. Should he pick the right sample more often than the wrong
one, a binomial test will determine the probability of picking the right sample this often by
chance, so as to be able to make a decision about whether the judge really would tell the
difference. The disadvantage of the paired-comparison test is that the experimenter has to
specify which attribute the judge has to look for, and it is not easy to explain, for example,
what is meant by “having more off-flavor”. The duo-trio test does not require the judge to
determine which of two samples has more of a given attribute; it is used to determine which
of two samples are the same as a standard sample presented before the test. This saves the
difficulty of having to describe the attribute under consideration. The test is analyzed
statistically in the same way as the paired-comparison test, to see whether a judge
demonstrated that he could distinguish the two samples, by consistently picking the sample
that matched the standard.
An alternative to the duo-trio test, that also avoids the difficulty of having to define the
attribute that is varying between the samples, is the triangle test. Rather than picking one of
a pair that is the same as a standard, the judge has to pick out the odd sample from a group
of three (two the same, one different). Again, a binomial test is the appropriate statistical
analysis.
A summary of the sensory difference tests is presented in Table 1. By setting an adequate
sensory analysis plan, it is possible to fix the day from which differences are detected at a
pre-established confidence level.
Carpenter et al. (2000) provided a case-study of the application of the sensory analysis in the
establishment of shelf-life of chocolate filled and covered tabs, where triangular test was
applied. In order to provide with control samples (samples just produced) to be able to
make comparisons at every analysis day, a number of samples just produced was freezed at
the beginning of the study, and at every analysis day, the necessary control samples were
left to defrost. Previously, it was demonstrated that freezing and defrosting of samples did
not influence the sensory characteristics of the product.
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Paired-comparison A vs B
Which is greater in a given One-tailed binomial test, p = q = 1/2 or
A or B?
attribute? two tails, p = q = 1/2.
Is there a difference Same of
Two-tailed binomial test, p = q = 1/2.
between the two? different?
Duo-trio A: A vs B
Which is the same as the
A or B? One-tailed binomial test, p = q = 1/2
standard?
A
Triangle
B B
Which is the odd sample? A or B? One-tailed binomial test, p = 1/3, q = 2/2
Table 1. Sensory difference tests and their analyses.
When sensory difference testing aims at detecting differences by consumers, the result of
these tests will tell us the day from which differences are detected; however, these tests do
not provide any information about the changes in sensorial attributes of a food. For a
through knowledge of the food product, it is necessary to carry out sensory studies able to
provide sensorial information about the food. These studies are called sensory descriptive
tests. Murray et al. (2001) reviewed the state-of-the-art of descriptive sensory analysis. One
of the most relevant descriptive tests is the Quantitative Descriptive Analysis (QDA). In the
QDA, colour, odour, flavour, texture and other attributes are, in a preliminary stage,
examined by an expert panel, which generates descriptive terms for the attributes. Then, the
leader of the sensory analysis gathers and organized the terms, and prepares a draft list
which is subsequently presented to the expert panel for discussion and fine-tuning. A
definition and a scale for each attribute are established. The aim of this preliminary stage is
to agree on a lot of standard attributes for a specific food, so that panellists can use it
systematically. A definitive questionnaire is made up and, in a second stage, different
sessions are organized according to the sensory analysis plan where every panellist fills in
the questionnaire individually. QDA data obtained from every session can be statistically
processed in different ways. The most common statistical tests are the t test (comparison
between two products A and B), and the ANOVA test (comparison between more than two
products), although other more sophisticated test designed to summarize a high number of
sensory data can also be applied such as principal components analysis, correspondence
analysis or discriminant analysis. Some guidelines like that published by Donelly &
Mitchell, (2009) propose a scale from 1 to 4 to different attributes (e.g. for odour, 1 “normal
odour; 2 = slight off-odour; 3 = moderate off-odour, and 4 = strong off odour), stating that a
mean of 2.5 or below indicates an acceptable product, and a mean score of 2.5 marks the end
of the product shelf-life.
In the case-study published by Carpenter et al. (2000), a QDA was performed in parallel to
the triangle test. In this way, it was possible to identify the nature and magnitude of the
changes in sensorial characteristics during storage. Apart from the statistical tests to analyze
and interpret QDA data, a graphical representation of scores of the different attributes along
time provides a “picture” of the evolution of attributes during storage.
Some authors have modelled the relationship between the time when defects appear or
when differences between control and studied samples are detected, and temperature of
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storage (Labuza & Fu, 1993; Mataragas et al., 2006; Valero et al., 2006), applying the
following model:
ts  t0 exp  bxT  (35)
where ts is the time (d) when defects appear at any temperature T within the examined
range; t0, the time (d) when defects appear at 0ºC; and b, the slope of the regression line of
plot ln ts = f(T). Labuza & Fu (1993) stated that when the temperature range of concern is
relatively narrow (0 to 12ºC) then the shelf-life of a product can be determined by using the
lot shelf-life model (Equation 35).
For sensory evaluation, it is very important to establish the objective of the study, and
depending on the company quality management, resources and duration of the study, an
analysis plan should be properly designed.
7. Food testing for determination of shelf-life

When designing a shelf-life study, several questions arise, such as proper food samples
storage, testing time, quantity of samples or tests which should be applied. The key steps for
designing a shelf-life study are focused on the duration time of the study, sampling
frequency and controls which will be carried out until the food presents a significant
spoilage. Usually, controls regarding microbiology, sensory and physico-chemical analysis
are established. To design a shelf-life study, factors such as temperature, relative humidity,
illumination conditions, etc., should be strictly controlled, preferably in a certified
laboratory. Additionally, the design must be simple, easy to follow and interpretable by
food operators.
Preliminary information is very useful for refining the experimental design. This
information can be obtained from multiple sources like historical data (i.e. processing and
storage conditions, formulation of the food, historical microbiological data, etc.), or
published studied performed in similar products.
Current International legislation does not provide the application of standard protocols
aiming at establishing the shelf-life of food products. However, various National and
International Guidelines for this purpose are published (Food Safety Authority of Ireland,
2005; Health Protection Agency, 2009; New Zealand Food Safety Authority, 2005;
Refrigerated Food Association, 2009). These Guidelines suggest different methods and
analyses protocols for shelf-life establishment, being mainly focused on RTE foods, as
mentioned in Section 3.
7.1 Steps to be followed for the design of a shelf-life study

There are common steps to follow when designing a shelf-life study. The study can differ
according to the previous knowledge one has with regards to the food product.
7.1.1 Identification of the main causes of food spoilage

Each food product includes a series of factors that limit its shelf-life. Some of them were
described in Sections 2 and 5 and they can affect food quality and safety during storage and
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distribution if they are not adequately controlled. Throughout this first step, identification of
all related factors that can potentially influence food shelf-life from production to
consumption is crucial. Consequently, the entire food chain must be examined.
7.1.2 Planning the shelf-life study

Once factors are identified, the shelf-life studies must be planned in order to give answer to
the following questions:
a. Which type of analyses must be carried out? A number suitable tests should be
performed during a predetermined storage period. These comprise sensorial,
microbiological and physico-chemical analyses. Regarding sensorial aspects, different
attributes have to be evaluated such as odour, appearance, flavour, texture, as well as
other organoleptical characteristics by a trained panel. In section 6, several sensory tests
are proposed. Microbial analyses must be performed along the storage time, aiming at
monitoring the changes in microbial concentration. The most common microbial groups
analyzed are aerobic mesophilic bacteria, coliforms, yeasts, lactic-acid bacteria, and
some indicators such as E. coli, Staphylococcus aureus or sporulated bacteria in thermal
treated foods (Bacillus spp., Clostridium spp.). Physical analyses include texture changes,
package type, appearance, etc., and they are usually considered as sensorial attributes.
Regarding chemical analyses, changes in concentration of metabolites or chemical
parameters (pH, nitrogen content, salt, organic acids, etc.) are monitored during the
storage period. These tests are recommended to be performed at three different storage
conditions as minimum: one established by the food operator (commercial conditions),
one intermediate condition and one abuse condition (in case of breaking of the cold
chain). For temperature control during storage, dataloggers should be used in
refrigeration cameras.
b. How many analyses must be carried out? This mainly depends on the pre-established
shelf-life or prior knowledge, food type and storage conditions. In principle, for those
foods with a long expected shelf-life (i.e. more than 3 months) analyses can be more
sporadic. On the contrary, perishable and RTE foods have shorter shelf-lives (between
one week and one month); in this case, microbial growth is normally the main reason of
food spoilage, so it is necessary to increase the frequency of analyses in order to provide
an accurate estimation of shelf-life. In general, for both long and short shelf-lives, it is
desirable to set around 7-10 analytical points regularly distributed, although this
number will change according to the specific case to study. Sampling points must be
separated between 15-20% of the total shelf-life period. Besides, one final point has to be
performed once shelf-life is expired (after 15-20% of the shelf-life time). In this way, the
total analytical period will comprise 115-120% of the shelf-life period. For instance, if
shelf-life is calculated in 30 days, analyses are recommended to be performed in days 0,
6, 12, 18, 24, 30 and 36. Obviously, frequency of analyses is influenced by the storage
temperature.
c. How many samples need to be withdrawn per analytical point? It is recommended to
analyze, at least, two samples at each analytical point and storage condition. For
instance, 7 analytical points x 2 temperature conditions x 2 samples = 28 samples.
Normally, the samples destined to microbial or physico-chemical analyses, if not
completely destructed, can be used for sensorial analyses.
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d. Which period is the most appropriate to perform the study? In any case, shelf-lives
studies have to be repeated to control the variability of foods, but the most suitable
period corresponds to summer months.
7.1.3 Shelf-life establishment

Shelf-life ends when the food loses its original quality and/or safety attributes. Based on the
information collected in previous steps, the maximum storage time of the food at given
conditions assuring the maintenance of appropriate characteristics, has to be decided.
Estimations will be different if decisions are based on microbial or sensorial or physico-
chemical changes. In any case, the most conservative approach should be chosen as the best
one, unless there are other factors needing to be considered.
7.1.4 Shelf-life monitoring

It is advisable to validate the established shelf-life of a food as well as to repeat the analyses
in several occasions to include shelf-life variability due to effects of different environmental
variables.
7.2 Shelf-life studies based on Listeria monocytogenes growth in RTE foods

L. monocytogenes is a pathogen which may cause disease in humans and it is typically
transmitted as a food-borne pathogen. L. monocytogenes is frequently present in the
environment, soil, vegetation and faeces of animals. The organism can be found in raw
foods such as fresh meat, raw milk and fish. The ubiquitous occurrence and the increased
ability to grow or survive in a chilled environment compared to other microorganisms,
makes L. monocytogenes a significant challenge in food production. This concern is of
particular relevance in Ready-To-Eat (RTE) foods, as they do not received further treatment
after production and their intrinsic characteristics support the growth of L. monocytogenes.
It is crucial that producers of RTE foods take actions to control the contamination by L.
monocytogenes as well as its growth throughout the shelf-life. Knowledge on the growth
potential of L. monocytogenes in RTE foods is needed, and this must be taken into account
when setting their shelf-lives.
A guidance document was launched by the European Commission in 2008 regarding shelf-
life studies for L. monocytogenes in RTE foods (SANCO, 2008). This document addressed the
question stated in Annex II of the Regulation (EC) No 2073/2005, where food operators
must demonstrate that L. monocytogenes cannot exceed 100 cfu/g throughout the shelf-life of
RTE foods able to support the growth of L. monocytogenes and that may pose a risk for public
health. In this document, microbiological procedures for determining the growth of L.
monocytogenes through challenge tests were described, as well as durability studies in the
frame of the application of the Regulation (EC) No. 2073/2005. The microbiological
procedures include:
a. Challenge tests
- assessing a growth potential (δ)
- assessing the maximum growth rate ( max)
b. Durability studies
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8. Assessment of shelf-life scientific-based

Food testing renders a data set of different nature (microbiological, physico-chemical,
sensorial) which should be wisely managed to produce an accurate estimation of shelf-life of
foods. It is a decision of the quality department of food companies to define the criteria
upon which product shelf-life should be established.
At the beginning of the chapter, “product shelf-life” was defined as “the term or period a
product may be stored before a specific element of the product makes it unsuitable for use
or consumption”. Unsuitability can be evaluated by sensory testing, while the cause for
unsuitability could be of biological or physico-chemical nature. Whichever characteristic is
analyzed (microbiological, physico-chemical or sensorial) when a batch of product is
analyzed at different time intervals during the period of storage, a “survival curve” can be
constructed (Figure 4). A “survival curve” is a representation of the percentage of suitable
food along time. In other words, a batch of product, even though belonging to the same lot,
fails as storage time increases.
1.2
1.0
Probability of survival
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
10 15 20 25 30 35
Shelf-Life (d)
Fig. 4. Survival curve for a Food product.
A number of probability distributions have been proposed to model failure time of a

product (Hough et al., 2003). Typically, such a distribution is defined by a small number of
parameters and a mathematical equation. Some commonly used statistical distributions are
the exponential, Weibull or log-normal distribution. The goodness of fit of these
distributions to data can be assessed through the Anderson-Darling statistics; the smaller
the value of this test statistics, the better the fit. In the shelf-life context, probability
distributions represent storage time vs probability. Figure 5 represents the Weibull
distribution fitted to a data set, where probability of rejection (1 – probability of survival) is
plotted against shelf-life. To use these curves to predict shelf-life, the experimenter needs to
define the largest acceptable proportion of defects that can be tolerated. A horizontal line
can then be drawn on the plot to determine the corresponding shelf-life. Mataragas et al.
(2007) used this approach to estimate the shelf-life of a sliced, cooked, cured meat product.
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1.2
1.0
Probability of rejection
0.8
Observed data
0.6
Weibull distribution
0.4
0.2
0.0
10 15 20 25 30 35
Shelf-Life (d)
Fig. 5. Weibull distribution to predict shelf-life of a food product.
Statistical tools are of great value for the food industry and to the satisfaction of the different
stakeholders, to demonstrate a science-based shelf-life, assuring the safety while
maintaining the original sensorial characteristics of the food.
9. Prospects
Shelf-life of foods are being reformulating based on scientific evidence to the satisfaction of
Health Authorities, import countries and different stakeholders. For this, a systematic
approach for establishing by-product category shelf-lives should be adopted. Research and
technological centres, Universities, food industries and sectorial associations should agree
on standardized protocols to face this challenge.
Food industries could incorporate informatic tools to systematically produce foods meeting
the quality level set up for them. The more homogeneous the food lots, the less deviations
from established shelf-lives. A number of possibilities exist for the development of decision-
support systems based on rule-based expert systems. Examples (Paoli, 2001, as cited in
Tamplin et al., 2004) include:
- Virtual inspection: Simulating interaction with an inspector to allow establishments to
self-assess their facility or a food processing operation. This may be of interest to large
companies and regulators who find their quality control or inspection resources
inadequate for the number of establishments and that they are required to assess.
- Process deviation assessment: Tools which incorporate expert knowledge regarding the
best actions to take in case of process deviations, in terms of assessing the seriousness of
the deviation and in recommending corrective actions for the implicated product
and/or process.
- In-line real-time expert systems: Examples exist (though not in predictive microbiology)
of expert systems that received real-time data and provide continuous assessments of
the status of systems, based on the combination of these data and embedded
knowledge-based rules that interpret the data for display to operators. This could be
applied to food production systems where a complex set of variables requires
monitoring combined with complex reasoning to assure safety and quality.
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10. Acknowledgments
CTS-3620 Project of Excellence from the Andalusia Government, AGL 2008-03298/ALI
project from the Spanish government, FP7-KBBE-2007-2A nº 222738 project from the VII
Framework Programme and European ERDF funding are greatly acknowledged for
providing material and specially human resources, making possible the continuation of Risk
Assessment and Management activities at national and European level by our research
group AGR170 “HIBRO”.
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Trends in Vital Food and Control Engineering
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ISBN 978-953-51-0449-0
Hard cover, 290 pages
Publisher InTech
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control systems and economics processing. All chapters have been written by renowned professionals working
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cannot indicate consumer acceptability or rejection. It is very important to ensure no

A unifying description of the interaction between microflora behaviour and physico-

2. Environmental factors affecting microbial shelf-life

2.1 Intrinsic factors

2.5 Shortening of shelf-life

Fig. 2. Effect of the microbial initial contamination on shelf-life in a food.

2.1.2 pH and acidity

2.1.3 Water activity (aw)

food, i.e. the fraction of “available” water to participate in chemical/biochemical reactions

2.1.4 Redox potential (Eh)

2.1.5 Biological structure

2.1.6 Antimicrobial constituents

2.1.7 Competitive flora (biopreservation)

2.2 Extrinsic factors

At temperatures above the maximum temperature, structural cell components become

2.2.2 Gas composition

2.2.3 Relative humidity (RH)

2.2.4 Consumer practices

3. Role of spoilage microorganisms in foods

4. Mathematical modelling of bacterial growth

4.1 Primary models

4.1.1 Growth models

lag  M – 1 / B   LogN  0   A  /  BC / e   (3)

specific growth rate  BC / e »BC / 2.18 (4)

N  t   N  0  K nexp  At   Aexp  K nt   /  A  K n  (10)

tLAG  A1  log 1   A / Kn  (11)

tLAG / tD   ln 2 1 log 1   A / Kn  (12)

For t  tLAG , N t  N 0 (13)

Exponential growth phase:

For tLAG  t  t MAX , N t  N 0  µ  t – tLAG  (14)

For t  t MAX , N t  N MAX (15)

4.1.2 Survival/inactivation models

and when expressed as log10, gives:

4.2 Secondary models

4.2.1 Polynomial models

ln( max )  a0  a1T  a2 pH  a3 (%NaCl )  a4T  pH  a5T (%NaCl ) 

4.2.2 Square root-type

max  b(T  Tmin ) (23)

max  b(T  Tmin )  1  exp  c T  Tmax    (24)

max  b(T  Tmin )  aw  aw min  (25)

4.2.3 The gamma concept and the cardinal parameter model

max   opt  T    pH    aw  (26)

max  opt CM2 (T )CM1 ( pH ) CM 2 ( aw ) (31)

max  opt CM2 (T )CM1 ( pH ) CM1 ( aw ) (32)

4.2.4 Artificial neural networks

4.2.5 Probabilistic models

LogitP  log  P /  1 – P   (33)

where P is the probability of the outcome of interest.

where Y is the function describing the effects of the independent variables.

5.1 Lipid oxidation

5.2 Non enzymatic and enzymatic browning

6. Sensorial evaluation for determining shelf-life

ts  t0 exp  bxT  (35)

7. Food testing for determination of shelf-life