Nova Scotia

Voter Intention Numbers

16th November 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results With 20 years of political experience in all
of a survey conducted between October three levels of government, President and CEO
30th to November 1st, 2018 among a sample Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
of 615 adults, 18 years of age or older, living international public affairs.
in Nova Scotia. The survey was conducted
using automated telephone interviews (Smart Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
landlines and cellular phones. snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
The sampling frame was derived from and was the only polling firm to correctly predict
random digit dialing. a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
Research and was not sponsored by a third elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
party. special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
a member of the World Association for Public
The margin of error for the first survey is +/- Opinion Research and meets international and
3.95% and is accurate 19 times out of 20. Canadian publication standards.

(full methodology appears at the end of this CONTACT INFORMATION

report) In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
[email protected]

In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
[email protected]

Find us online at:

www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
Our latest UltraPoll release turns its focus to Nova Scotia, where the opposition
Nova Scotia PCs are in a statistical tie with the governing Liberals, with both
parties slipping in the polls.

The poll surveyed 615 Nova Scotians between October 30th and November 1st
and has a margin of error of +/- 3.95% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Progressive Conservatives with new
leader Tim Houston have 33.2% support (-1.5% since August), while the governing
Liberals are at 32.7% (-7.5%). The NDP led by Gary Burrill are at 20.7% (+3.4%),
while the Greens under the helm of Thomas Trappenburg are at 8.9%. (+3.3%).

This is the first polling released since Houston has become leader of the Nova
Scotia PCs.

The PCs lead among men while the Liberals lead among women. The NDP now
lead among 18-34s, while the PCs lead among respondents aged between 35
to 49. The Liberals lead with voters older than 50.

When looking at geographic divisions, the Liberals lead in Halifax while the PCs
lead in Cape Breton and the rest of the province.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - [email protected]
 All Voters
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?

Undecided 21%
Liberals 26%
Another Party 3%

All Voters
Greens 7.9%

Decided and Leaning

NDP 15%

Progressive Conservatives 27.1%

Another Party 4.4%

Liberals Progressive Conservatives
Greens 8.9% NDP Greens

Another Party Undecided

Liberals 32.7%

NDP 20.7%
Decided and Leaning

Progressive Conservatives 33.2%

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
18- 35- 50- Cape Breton Halifax Rest of Nova
Total Male Female 65+
34 49 64 area area Scotia
Liberals led by Stephen McNeil 26% 28.6% 23.4% 20.7% 21.6% 29.1% 31.9% 24.2% 28% 24.4%
Progressive Conservatives led by Tim
27.1% 29.7% 24.7% 18% 31% 27.2% 33.1% 32.5% 22.7% 29.9%
Houston
NDP led by Gary Burrill 15% 13% 17% 23.2% 18.1% 10.3% 9.3% 13.7% 16.6% 13.9%
Greens led by Thomas Trappenberg 7.9% 6.8% 9% 9.8% 8.6% 6.4% 7.2% 5.6% 9.1% 7.5%
Another Party 3% 2.5% 3.4% 2.8% 4% 3.4% 1.4% - 3% 4%
Undecided 21% 19.4% 22.5% 25.4% 16.7% 23.6% 17% 24% 20.7% 20.3%
Unw eighted Frequency 615 313 302 144 139 177 155 69 313 233
Weighted Frequency 615 301 314 151 142 184 138 88 267 260

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

18- 35- 50- Cape Breton Halifax Rest of Nova
Total Male Female 65+
34 49 64 area area Scotia
Liberals led by Stephen McNeil 29.2% 30.9% 27.5% 23.4% 23.3% 32.9% 36.4% 25.9% 31.9% 27.5%
Progressive Conservatives led by Tim
29.6% 33.1% 26.3% 22.5% 32.6% 29.3% 34.6% 35.4% 26% 31.3%
Houston
NDP led by Gary Burrill 18.4% 15.6% 21% 26.6% 22.3% 13% 12.5% 13.7% 20.4% 17.9%
Greens led by Thomas Trappenberg 8% 6.8% 9% 9.9% 8.6% 6.4% 7.3% 5.6% 9.2% 7.5%
Another Party 3.9% 3.3% 4.4% 5.1% 4% 4% 2.3% 2.8% 3.7% 4.4%
Undecided 11% 10.2% 11.8% 12.4% 9.2% 14.4% 6.8% 16.6% 8.7% 11.5%
Unweighted Frequency 615 313 302 144 139 177 155 69 313 233
Weighted Frequency 615 301 314 151 142 184 138 88 267 260

(decided and leaning voters)

18- 35- 50- Cape Breton Halifax Rest of Nova
Total Male Female 65+
34 49 64 area area Scotia
Liberals led by Stephen McNeil 32.7% 34.4% 31.1% 26.7% 25.5% 38.3% 39.1% 31% 35% 30.9%
Progressive Conservatives led by Tim
33.2% 36.8% 29.8% 25.7% 36% 34.3% 37.2% 42.1% 28.3% 35.3%
Houston
NDP led by Gary Burrill 20.7% 17.4% 23.9% 30.5% 24.6% 15.3% 13.3% 16.9% 22.5% 20.2%
Greens led by Thomas Trappenberg 8.9% 7.6% 10.2% 11.3% 9.5% 7.5% 7.9% 6.6% 10.1% 8.5%
Another Party 4.4% 3.8% 5% 5.8% 4.4% 4.7% 2.5% 3.4% 4.1% 5.1%
Unweighted Frequency 546 279 267 124 126 153 143 58 282 206
Weighted Frequency 546 267 279 134 126 163 123 78 237 231
 QUESTIONNAIRE
If a provincial election were held What is your gender?
today, which party would you vote Male
for? Female
Nova Scotia Liberal Party led by
Stephen McNeil What is your age group?
Progressive Conservative Party of 18 to 34 years of age
Nova Scotia led by Tim Houston 35 to 49 years of age
Nova Scotia New Democratic Party 50 to 64 years of age
led by Gary Burrill 65 years of age or older
Green Party of Nova Scotia led by
Thomas Trappenberg
Another Party
Undecided

And which party are you leaning

towards? (only asked of respondents
who were undecided in previous
question)
Nova Scotia Liberal Party led by
Stephen McNeil
Progressive Conservative Party of
Nova Scotia led by Tim Houston
Nova Scotia New Democratic Party
led by Gary Burrill
Green Party of Nova Scotia led by
Thomas Trappenberg
Another Party
Undecided
 METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between April 16th 2018
and April 18th, 2018, among a sample of 680 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Nova
Scotia. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were
interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population of Nova Scotia.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed
from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of three regions in Nova Scotia: Halifax,
Cape Breton, and the rest of Nova Scotia. In the case of random digit dials, respondents
were asked the additional question of what region of the province they resided in. In both
cases, respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.85% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 5.47%, Females: +/- 5.41%,
18-34 age group: +/- 14.61%, 35-49 age group: +/- 10.11%, 50-64 age group: +/- 7.14%, 65+ age
group: +/- 5.46%, Halifax: +/- 6.05%, Cape Breton: +/- 7.38%, Rest of Nova Scotia: +/- 6.74%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.