CIBC - 9th Annual Easter Insitutional Investor Conference
CIBC - 9th Annual Easter Insitutional Investor Conference
CIBC - 9th Annual Easter Insitutional Investor Conference
Industry Update
CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
CIBC World Markets Inc. required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
1 (416) 594-7000 See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
end of this report, or at the end of each section hereof, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
9th Annual Eastern Institutional Investor Conference - September 17, 2010
2
9th Annual Eastern Institutional Investor Conference - September 17, 2010
Companies Presenting
Aerospace & Defense Diversified Financial
Bombardier, Inc. Home Capital Group Inc.
CAE, Inc. Power Financial Corporation
TMX Group, Inc.
Airlines Western Financial Group
Air Canada
Jazz Air Income Fund Enterprise Software
Transat A.T. Inc. Constellation Software Inc.
WestJet Airlines Ltd. Descartes Systems Group Inc.
3
9th Annual Eastern Institutional Investor Conference - September 17, 2010
4
9th Annual Eastern Institutional Investor Conference - September 17, 2010
Director’s Overview
As has been the case in most years, much has transpired in the marketplace
during the past 12 months since our last institutional conference held in
Montreal. From an investor perspective, the past year would appear to have
been a reasonable one on a point-to-point basis as the current TSX level of
12,173 is up about 9% from last year at this time. On a North American basis,
our market has outperformed and on a global basis only Mexico, Brazil and
Stockholm have had a better run during the past 365 days. Of course, point-to-
point references fail to highlight the trading opportunities that have existed as
the TSX has experienced four declining periods greater than 5% and four
upswings averaging 8.2%. This volatility, while still meaningful, has been a
break from some of the extreme experience we have faced in the past couple of
years. In fact, as a tidbit, the first Montreal Investor Conference commentary I
provided as the DOR was in 2006, and unfortunately from an index value
perspective, not much has changed – point to point.
While in past years there has been a real penchant for the resource-based
stocks driving the Canadian market, this year a more diversified group have
contributed to the market’s rise in the last 12 months. While the materials group
has delivered 21% appreciation, so have the telecoms, while consumer-focused
stocks are up 10%-15% as a group as have the industrials. It is just this
diversification that we seek out in putting together our agenda for the Montreal
conference. Executive management teams from a total of 54 companies
spanning a variety of sectors including Financial Services, Communications and
Media, Transportation, Technology, Consumer Products and Industrial
Manufacturing, are presenting at our conference.
This special report contains a one-page synopsis of each company that will be
presenting. We have provided a brief update and our current forecasts for each
company currently under research coverage. We have also provided a general
description and historical data for those companies not under coverage.
We hope this report provides additional insight and perspective into some of
North America’s most interesting and attractive industries as well as the
companies that compete in them. On behalf of all of us at CIBC Wholesale
Banking, we hope the forthcoming presentations at the Westin in Montreal prove
to be interesting, insightful and continue to be a valuable tool in your investment
decision-making processes.
Quentin Broad
Managing Director, Canadian Equity Research
5
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009 $128.2A
2010 $135.6E
2011 $199.5E
EV/EBITDA
2009 6.1x
2010 5.8x
2011 3.9x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Aecon Group Inc. is a leading Canadian construction
firm operating in the infrastructure, buildings and CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
industrial sectors, and also owns investments in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
infrastructure concessions. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.aecon.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Lechem Stephanie Price, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-6429 1 (416) 594-7047
[email protected] [email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010
1- 0 5
3- 06
1 - 06
3- 0 8
1 - 08
0
1- 04
3- 05
3- 07
1- 07
3 - 09
9
00
01
20
0
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
Interest (17.8) (33.8) (40.3)
F
1-
1-
Q
Q
EBT 70.1 73.0 113.6 Infrastructure Buildings Industrial
Tax Expense (Recovery) (22.3) (21.4) (36.3)
Adj. Net Income (Loss) 44.4 48.7 75.2
Adj. FD EPS $0.80 $0.76 $1.12
EBITDA Margin By Division
14%
Free Cash Flow F2009A F2010E F2011E 12%
Cash Flow From Operations (6.1) (0.0) 143.2 10%
8%
Capital Expenditures (30.1) (34.1) (40.0) 6%
Free Cash Flow (36.2) (34.2) 103.2 4%
2%
Free Cash Flow Per Share NA NA $1.44 0%
-2%
-4%
Balance Sheet F2009A F2010E F2011E -6%
Cash & ST Investments 340.9 191.1 245.4
E
01
02
03
04
05
07
08
09
06
10
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
7
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009 $219.5A
2010 $275.0E
2011 $305.4E
EV/EBITDA
2009 6.6x
2010 5.3x
2011 4.8x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
AGF Management Limited manages mutual funds in
Canada. It also operates a trust and international money CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
management subsidiary. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.agf.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Holden, CFA Kevin Cheng, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-8417 1 (416) 956-6676
[email protected] [email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Compelling Valuations; Need Fund Sales To Improve - September 17, 2010
AGF Management Ltd 15.9x 10.9x 9.2x AGF Management is the least expensive Canadian asset manager in our coverage
Canadian Asset Managers (ex AGF) 17.9x 16.1x 13.7x universe at 9.2x our 2011E EPS, versus an average of 13.7x for the sector and a
U.S. Asset Managers 20.2x 15.5x 12.9x historical average of 14.0x. AGF is also the asset manager that provides the highest
dividend yield at 6.7% and free cash flow yield of 12.8% .
Key Financial Metrics ($ mns) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Institutional AUM continues to perform well rising 35.1% Y/Y vs mutual fund growth of
2.1% Y/Y. Institutional AUM growth should continue with 3 new mandates to be
EBITDA 313.7 219.5 275.0 305.4 launched in 2010 and the addition of new offices in Boston and Hong Kong.
ROE 11.8% 7.9% 11.3% 12.9% We believe that AGF trust may not be fully valued by the market given: 1) its tier 1
Dividends per Share 0.95 1.00 1.03 1.09 capital ratio (14.4% ) remains robust, 2) loss ratios have stabilized and 3) mid-teen
Average Mutual Fund AUM 26,346 20,663 21,748 21,931 ROEs. Using a conservative valuation of 1.0x book value, AGF trust is worth
Total AUM 35,558 44,618 45,306 49,587 approximately $2.43/share.
Gross Sales 3,579 2,607 2,788 3,312
Gross Redemptions 5,159 3,380 4,117 3,760 Chart 1: EBITDA Composition ($ mns)
Net Sales (1,580) (774) (1,329) (448)
Loan loss provisions 30.4 37.6 15.8 13.0 400 $357
$314
Income Statement ($ mns)* 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 300 $275
$220
12 Av erage
CFO before changes in NWC 278.7 206.1 243.3 250.4
86.8 54.5 61.1 76.2 8 -1 std dev
Less: Commissions Paid
Free Cash Flow 191.9 151.6 182.2 174.2 4
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Free Cash Flow Per Share 2.10 1.69 2.01 1.93 * Fo rward fiscal year
*Nov Year end
9
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Air Canada
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer –
Speculative Leveraged To A Recovery
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $5.00
AC.B-TSX (9/13/10) $2.51 Air Canada is Canada's largest airline and the largest provider of scheduled
Key Indices: Toronto passenger services in the Canadian market, the trans-border market and
the international market to and from Canada. In 2009, Air Canada carried
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM ~31 million passengers, servicing ~167 destinations worldwide.
52-week Range $1.03-$2.67
Shares Outstanding 274.0M
Float 185.3M Shrs Air Canada remains focused on containing costs through its Cost
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 279,198 Transformation Program and is targeting savings of $300 million (up from
Market Capitalization $687.7M $270 million previously) in 2010, eventually reaching an annual run rate of
Dividend/Div Yield Nil / Nil $530 million by the end of 2011 (up from $500 million previously).
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $4.63 per Shr The growth opportunities for Air Canada stem from long-haul business as it
2010 ROE (E) NM looks to increase flights into Asia and leverage its status as the number one
LT Debt $3,972.0M
foreign carrier in the U.S., to drive throughput at its Toronto hub and to
Preferred Nil
attract more U.S. air passenger demand for international travel.
Common Equity $1,269.0M
Convertible Available No
Air Canada is a leveraged play to a recovery in the airline cycle but our SO-
EBITDA ($ mlns.) Current S rating reflects its higher debt levels, higher pension obligations and older
2009 $344.0A fleet. Air Canada's recent debt refinancing has provided additional flexibility
2010 $973.0E and will reduce cash flow obligations by $406 million from H2/10 to 2014.
2011 $1217.0E
EV/EBITDA
2009 9.6x
2010 3.4x Stock Price Performance
2011 2.7x
Nov-06
Feb-07
May-07
Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Key Multiples 2009 2010E 2011E
Air Canada P/E NM NM 3.4x
Peer P/E 46.2x 19.7x 9.5x
Air Canada EV/EBITDA 9.8x 3.5x 2.8x Company Description
Peer EV/EBITDA 10.4x 4.7x 3.9x Air Canada is Canada’s largest full-service airline and the largest provider of
Air Canada P/CF 6.0x 1.3x 1.1x scheduled passenger services in the Canadian market, the Canada-U.S.
Peer P/CF 21.4x 9.3x 7.1x transborder market and the international market to and from Canada.
Operating Ratios 2009 2010E 2011E
In 2009, Air Canada carried ~31 million passengers, providing passenger service to
Operating Margin -3.2% 2.6% 4.7%
~167 destinations worldwide. The carrier also generates revenue from cargo
Return On Equity -1.7% -9.3% 38.2%
services provided by Air Canada, and from tour operator services provided by Air
Current Ratio 0.88 0.84 0.84
Canada Vacations.
Quick Ratio 0.70 0.73 0.72
LT Debt To Total Capitalization 73.7% 89.2% 87.2%
Investment Thesis
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
1. Focus on reigning in costs - Cost Transformation Program (CTP) targeting
Income Statement 2009 2010E 2011E $530 million in annual savings by end of 2011.
Sales 9,739 10,621 11,259
EBITDA From Operations 344 973 1,217 2. Labour relations - all is clear for now - Air Canada and its labour unions
Earnings From Operations (24) (48) 206 agreed to a 21 month contract extension effective July 2009.
FD EPS From Operations (0.26) (0.18) 0.73
Cash Flow 2009 2010E 2011E 3. Pension reprieve - Canadian government adopted the Air Canada 2009
CFPS 0.42 1.92 2.32 Pension Regulation which fixed Air Canada's pension payments from 2010-2013.
FCFPS (1.31) 1.45 1.83
4. Focusing on higher yield customers by expanding premium services -
Balance Sheet Q2/10
Premium seats are ~6x more profitable than economy seats.
Cash + ST Investments 1,815
Current Assets 3,053
5. Overseas competition - Biggest challenge from Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airw
PP&E 6,054
Total Assets 10,440
6. Expanding international network / leveraging the Star Alliance
Current Liabilities 3,339
LT Debt 3,972
Management
Total Liabilities 8,994
Mr. Calin Rovinescu - President & CEO
Shareholders' Equity 1,446
Mr. Duncan Dee - EVP & COO
Operating Statistics Q2/10 Mr. Michael Rousseau - EVP & CFO
Fuel Price Per Litre (Cents) 71.1 Mr. Benjamin Smith - EVP & CCO
Fuel Consumption (Mln L) 924 Ms. Lise Fournel - SVP & CIO
Total Aircraft 328 Mr. Kevin C. Howlett - SVP Employee Relations
# Of Employees ('000) 23.1 Mr. David Legge - SVP Operations
Fleet Utilization (Hours/Day) 9.7 Ms. Susan Welscheid - SVP Customer Service
Fleet Length (Miles) 853
US Transborder 108
19% 2006 2007 2008 2009
6500
18
6000
16
5500
(mlns)
14
5000
12
4500
10
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3E Q1E Q3E 4000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
11
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Bank Of Montreal
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Improving Credit & Retail Banking Are Key Drivers
Sector Weighting:
In F2011
Overweight
12-18 mo. Price Target $66.00
BMO-TSX (9/13/10) $61.78 BMO is the fourth-largest Canadian bank by market cap, with assets of $402
Key Indices: TSXFinSv billion as at Q3/F10. In the L4Q, it derived 58% of core earnings from P&C
Banking, 28% from Capital Markets and 14% from Private Client. This
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 8.0% excludes Corporate, which reported a loss of $404 million over that time.
52-week Range $49.56-$65.71
Shares Outstanding 562.9M
Float 562.9M Shrs Although very weak trading revenue weighed on BMO's Q3/F10 results,
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 1,852,000 earnings have been showing solid momentum over the past several
Market Capitalization $34,773.4M quarters, aided by falling loan losses. Capital ratios have also improved with
Dividend/Div Yield $2.80 / 4.5% Tier 1 now at 13.5% and tangible common equity at 10.4%.
Fiscal Year Ends October
Book Value $33.13 per Shr Our view on this name has been that the combination of above-average
2010 ROE (E) 15.6% leverage to improving credit and strong performance in retail banking
LT Debt $3,747.0M
positions it well relative to its peers. Notwithstanding a disappointing FQ3,
Preferred $2,571.00M
we believe this thesis is intact.
Common Equity $18,646.0M
Convertible Available No
BMO valuation multiples have continued to steadily improve over the past
Earnings Per Share Current few months. The company's forward P/E multiple is slightly below its peer
2009 $4.20A group, and trading 3% pts. below its 10-year average premium of 4%. We
2010 $4.80E rate BMO Sector Outperformer.
2011 $5.42E
P/E
2009 14.7x
2010 12.9x Stock Price Performance
2011 11.4x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Bank of Montreal is one of Canada's leading financial
institutions. It competes in P&C Banking, Wealth CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
Management and Investment Banking, predominantly in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
Canada and the U.S. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.bmo.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
[email protected] [email protected]
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
[email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Improving Credit & Retail Banking Are Key Drivers In F2011 - September 17, 2010
BANK OF MONTREAL
All Figures in $ millions, except per share data (excl. one-time items)
KEY MULTI PLES F2009A F2010E F2011E OUR THESIS
P/E Multiple 14.7x 12.9x 11.4x We believe that BMO continues to have above-average exposure to falling loan loss provisions; a
Peer average 12.7x 11.5x powerful catalyst that will be an important growth driver through our forecast period. While trading
results in the most recent quarter were well below our forecast, we still expect this revenue line to settle
Q3-10
above pre credit crunch levels. We currently have a Sector Outperformer rating on the stock with a $67
P/BVPS 1.9x
price target.
Peer average 2.1x
OPERATING PERFORMANCE F2009A F2010E F2011E SEGMENTED EARNINGS CONTRIBUTION
Core cash EPS $4.20 $4.80 $5.42
150%
Annual EPS growth (9.7% ) 14.2% 12.9%
Core cash ROE 13.2% 14.8% 15.6% 2%
63%
Efficiency ratio 61.0% 60.6% 60.3% 100% 41% 19%
Operating leverage (YoY) (0.4% ) 1.3% 2.1% 35% 16%
15%
20%
CREDIT METRICS F2009A F2010E F2011E 18%
(1) 50%
Loan loss rate 0.86% 0.59% 0.41% 56%
65% 70%
45%
F2009A Q3-10
0%
Gross impaired loans 3,297 3,128 -17% -5%
-44%
Specific ACLs 596 577
Total ACLs 1,902 1,879 -50%
(2)
Classical Coverage ratio 58% 60% F2007A F2008A F2009A Q3-10
Specific ACLs to GILs 18% 18%
General ACLs as % of Gross Loans & BAs 0.77% 0.74% Personal & Commercial Banking Private Client Group BMO Capital Markets Corporate Support
KEY EARNI NGS DRIVERS F2009A F2010E F2011E FORWARD P/E MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP (based on consensus estimates)
Core net interest income 5,397 5,967 6,340
130%
% change 4.5% 10.6% 6.2% 10-y ear Av erage Relativ e Fwd P/E: 104% Current Relative Fw d P/E: 101%
(3) 120%
Total capital markets related revenue 2,863 2,468 2,471
% change 20.2% (13.8%) 0.1% 110%
Provision for credit losses 1,543 1,006 725
% change 44% (35%) (28%) 100%
Sep-03
Sep-05
Sep-00
Sep-02
Sep-04
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Tangible common equity to RWA 9.2% 10.5% 11.1%
Tangible common equity to tangible assets 4.0% 4.1% 4.3%
Current Relativ e P/E 6-month Moving Av erage
Risk Weighted Assets 167,201 157,753 162,539 Plus 1 Standard Deviation Minus 1 standard Dev iation
LOAN BOOK F2009A F2010E F2011E P/BVPS MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP
Residential mortgages 45,524 47,450 48,890 130%
Non-residential mortgages 6,727 7,843 8,081 10-y ear Av erage Relative P/B = 89% Current Relativ e P/B = 87%
120%
Consumer instalment & other personal 45,824 50,114 51,634
Credit cards 2,574 3,329 3,430 110%
70%
N otes : 60%
(1) PC Ls as a % of av erage net loans and acceptances (ex cl. repos ).
Sep-01
Sep-10
Sep-00
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
13
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
One of Canada's most international financial institutions,
Bank of Nova Scotia delivers retail and commercial CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
banking capabilities in approximately 50 countries. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.scotiabank.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
[email protected] [email protected]
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
[email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Solid Strategic Positioning Supports Premium Valuation - September 17, 2010
Scotiabank
All Figures in $ millions, except per share data (excl. one-time items)
KEY MULTI PLES F2009A F2010E F2011E OUR THESIS
P/E Multiple 14.7x 13.5x 12.4x We are comfortable with the premium at which the shares trade considering the bank's longer-term
Peer average 12.7x 11.5x strategic advantages, better organic growth rate, above-average ROE and more stable earnings.
However, expanding it from here will prove more challenging and so we maintain our Sector
Q3-10
Performer rating at this time.
P/BVPS 2.5x
Peer average 2.1x
OPERATING PERFORMANCE F2009A F2010E F2011E SEGMENTED EARNINGS CONTRIBUTION
Core cash EPS $3.65 $3.98 $4.31
Annual EPS growth (6.7% ) 9.0% 8.4% 125%
2%
Core cash ROE 18.9% 18.7% 18.5% 39% 28%
Efficiency ratio 52.6% 51.1% 51.1% 100%
28%
Operating leverage (YoY) 6.0% 0.8% 0.3% 29%
75% 30%
34%
CREDIT METRICS F2009A F2010E F2011E 33%
(1) 50% 29%
Loan loss rate 0.55% 0.47% 0.34%
57%
F2009A Q3-10 25% 37% 44% 49%
Gross impaired loans 3,939 5,398
Specific ACLs 1,376 2,800 0%
-4% -22% -16%
Total ACLs 2,875 4,259
(2) -25%
Classical Coverage ratio 73% 79%
F2007A F2008A F2009A Q3-10
Specific ACLs to GILs 35% 52%
General ACLs as % of Gross Loans & BAs 0.54% 0.50% Canadian Banking International Banking Scotia Capital Other
KEY EARNI NGS DRIVERS F2009A F2010E F2011E FORWARD P/E MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP (based on consensus estimates)
Core net interest income 8,193 8,459 9,003
130%
% change 5.9% 3.2% 6.4% 10-y ear Av e rage Relativ e Fw d P/ E: 104% Curren t Relativ e Fw d P/E: 11 0%
(3)
Total capital markets related revenue 2,607 2,493 2,284 120%
% change 44.8% (4.4%) (8.4%)
110%
Provision for credit losses 1,602 1,314 995
% change 154% (18%) (24%) 100%
Non-interest expenses 7,919 8,023 8,176
% change 8.5% 1.3% 1.9% 90%
Sep-02
Sep-04
Sep-06
Sep-08
Sep-10
Sep-01
Sep-03
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
Tangible common equity to RWA 7.9% 9.2% 9.9%
Tangible common equity to tangible assets 3.6% 3.8% 4.1% Curre nt Relativ e P/E 6-month Mov ing Av erage
Plus 1 Standard Dev iation Minus 1 standard De v iation
Risk Weighted Assets 221,640 215,090 223,823
LOAN BOOK F2009A F2010E F2011E P/BVPS MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP
Residential mortgages 101,604 119,200 124,040 140%
Personal and credit cards 61,048 62,082 64,602 10-year Average Relativ e P/B = 109% Current Relativ e P/B = 122%
Business and government 106,520 104,842 109,099 130%
90%
80%
N otes :
(1) PC Ls as a % of av erage net loans and acceptances (ex cl. repos ). 70%
Sep-00
Sep-07
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
15
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
BCE Inc.
Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Solid Defensive Play With Yield Support And LT
Sector Weighting:
Operational Gain Potential
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $33.00
BCE-TSX (9/13/10) $32.75 BCE is one of Canada's largest communications companies. It owns 100% of
Key Indices: Toronto, S&P/TSX 60 Bell Canada, Canada's largest telco, and 100% of Bell TV (formerly
ExpressVu), Canada's largest satellite TV operator. BCE also holds a 44%
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 8.2% stake in Bell Aliant, which has wireline operations in Atlantic Canada.
52-week Range $25.07-$33.75
Shares Outstanding 760.1M
Float 756.1M Shrs BCE recently announced it would acquire the remaining 85% interest in CTV
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 5,386,141 that it does not own. The company believes the deal was necessitated by
Market Capitalization $24,893.3M the growing importance of convergence. While the deal did not cost much,
Dividend/Div Yield $1.83 / 5.6% we believe it gives BCE a call option should content be required for wireless.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $18.98 per Shr Overall, BCE continues a series of solid quarters, focused on cost-cutting,
2010 ROE (E) 15.5% which continues to drive improving results. Wireless has also been seeing
LT Debt $13,893.0M
solid gains, with strong ARPU gains, improved data growth, and a trend
Preferred $2,770.00M
towards obtaining a fair share of net additions.
Common Equity $14,429.0M
Convertible Available No
With significant FCF generation, BCE is, in our view, a solid defensive play
Earnings Per Share Current with yield support and longer-term operational gain potential. That said, we
2009 $2.50A believe current valuations adequately reflect BCE's asset mix and its near-
2010 $2.81E term prospects from fundamentals. As such, we retain our SP rating.
2011 $2.85E
P/E
2009 13.1x
2010 11.7x Stock Price Performance
2011 11.5x
BCE Inc. (excl. Aliant) - 5.8x 5.6x 5.5x BCE is Canada's largest communications company, providing wireline and
TELUS Corp. - 6.0x 5.7x 5.5x wireless voice and data services, broadband internet, and video services to
North American ILECs - 5.5x 5.5x 5.5x residential, business, and wholesale customers. BCE also owns a 44.2% voting
interest in Bell Aliant, a regional incumbent carrier in Canada.
U.S. RLECs - 7.7x 6.4x 6.3x
BCE Inc. (excl. Aliant) - 13.1x 11.7x 11.5x Under the direction of George Cope, BCE has opportunities to steadily improve
TELUS Corp. - 13.7x 13.0x 12.4x operations and profitability, with focus returning to more aggressive wireless
North American ILECs - 13.5x 14.1x 14.3x intitiatives and cost cutting efforts. While material improvements in the business
U.S. RLECs - 13.3x 12.2x 12.3x will take time, near-term expectations are modest and achievable.
BCE is flush with cash, supporting an aggressive buyback, a sizable dividend, and
Key Financial Metrics F2008A F2009A F2010E F2011E prudent debt refinancing plans. As such, with significant free cash flow generation,
BCE is, in our view, a solid defensive play with strong yield support and potential
for longer-term operational gains.
Free Cash Flow Yield 6.9% 7.3% 8.9% 8.8%
Payout Ratio 64.1% 93.4% 83.7% 88.1% We believe current valuations adequately reflect BCE's asset mix, its near-term
Capital Intensity 16.9% 16.1% 15.9% 16.4% prospects from fundamentals, and its yield profile. While BCE's wireline segment
Net Debt / EBITDA 1.9x 2.0x 2.0x 1.9x remains under pressure, wireless opportunites are substantial, but material gains
may take many quarters and likely years to accomplish.
Effective Tax Rate 25.8% 15.0% 19.8% 25.0%
Income Statement F2008A F2009A F2010E F2011E Chart 1: Revenues & EBITDA By Segment (F2010E)
100%
Revenue 17,698.0 17,735.0 18,019.4 18,245.7
OpEx 10,444.0 10,291.0 10,597.7 10,632.3 31.2% 30.8%
75%
EBITDA 7,004.0 7,089.0 7,227.7 7,393.4
Depreciation & Amortization 3,269.0 3,371.0 3,298.0 3,338.0
50%
EBIT 2,864.0 3,191.0 3,862.7 3,955.4
68.8% 69.2%
Interest Expense 791.0 723.0 660.7 640.0
25%
EBT 1,820.0 2,450.0 3,342.0 3,315.4
Tax Expense (Recovery) 469.0 368.0 660.0 828.9 0%
Revenues EBITDA
Net Income 819.0 1,631.0 2,247.0 2,046.6
Wireline (includes Bell TV) Wireless
Adj. FD EPS 2.25 2.50 2.81 2.85
Free Cash Flow F2008A F2009A F2010E F2011E Key Operating Statistics (Last Reported Qtr.)
17
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009A $1,466.4
2010E $1,426.7
2011E $1,412.2
EV/EBITDA
2009A 5.9x
2010E 6.1x
2011E 6.1x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Bell Aliant is one of North America's largest regional
communication providers. Bell Aliant provides voice, CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
data, Internet, video, and business solutions to its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
customers in six Canadian provinces. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.bell.aliant.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Bek, CFA Michael Lee, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7454 1 (416) 594-7907 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
[email protected] [email protected]
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Tony Rizzi
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7299
[email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Solid Yield Story With Little Down-side Risk - September 17, 2010
Bell Aliant Income Fund - 5.9x 6.1x 6.1x Bell Aliant is one of North America's largest regional telecom carriers, providing
customers across the provinces of Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and Ontario with wireline
Cdn. ILECs - 5.5x 5.5x 5.5x
voice services, data and broadband internet, wireless, and video entertainment. Bell
U.S. ILECs - 5.5x 5.5x 5.5x Aliant also provides IT professional services and advanced technology solutions.
U.S. RLECs - 7.7x 6.4x 6.3x
Bell Aliant Income Fund - 15.8x 18.9x 20.0x As a wireline player, Bell Aliant's core business will remain under pressure from cable
Cdn. ILECs - 13.3x 14.4x 14.9x competition. However, Bell Aliant is a little better insulated than other telcos due to its
U.S. ILECs - 13.9x 13.8x 13.3x more "rural" geography, which should help mitigate ongoing operational pressures.
U.S. RLECs - 13.3x 12.2x 12.3x
Post conversion at the end of 2010, Bell Aliant has announced it will cut distributions to
Key Financial Metrics 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E more sustainable levels (from $2.90 to $1.90) in order to accelerate the deployment of
its FTTN/FTTH network in Atlantic Canada as well as pay down debt.
Distributable Cash Flow Yield 12.1% 13.0% 11.7% 11.1%
Payout Ratio 91.9% 85.4% 94.8% 66.2% Bell Aliant remains a strong income vehicle with little operational risks to distributions
Capital Intensity 16.1% 14.6% 16.5% 17.9% over the near-term. Additionally, we expect tight cost control to continue to lead to
Net Debt / EBITDA 1.9x 1.9x 1.9x 1.9x robust distributable cash flow generation.
Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Chart 1: Revenues By Segment (2010E)
Wireless
Information
3%
Revenue 3,282.0 3,174.2 3,056.7 3,017.5 Tech
OpEx 1,831.1 1,707.8 1,630.0 1,605.3 9%
EBITDA 1,450.9 1,466.4 1,426.7 1,412.2
Depreciation & Amortization 716.1 715.0 710.0 710.0 Local & Access
EBIT 595.8 621.6 591.6 592.2 45%
Internet & Data
Interest Expense 156.9 158.4 159.0 160.0
29%
EBT 441.2 451.8 430.7 430.3
Tax Expense (Recovery) (21.8) (56.1) (14.8) 0.0
Long Distance
Net Income 331.9 373.0 313.5 295.3 14%
Adj. FD EPU 1.46 1.63 1.37 1.29
Distributable Cash Flow 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Key Operating Statistics (Last Reported Qtr.)
Adj. EBITDA 1,386.7 1,399.1 1,358.1 1,348.1 Q2/09 Q2/10 y/y Growth
Less: Wireline ('000):
Capex 528.8 464.8 503.7 540.1 Residential Lines 1,993.0 1,867.0 -6.3%
Cash Taxes 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Business Lines 1,021 997 -2.3%
High-Speed Internet Subs 782.7 829.8 6.0%
Cash Interest 149.5 151.7 152.0 146.5
Other Income (7.2) 9.2 5.8 5.8
Wireless ('000):
Total Subs 116.9 125.6 7.4%
Distributable Cash 715.6 773.4 696.5 655.6
Total Net Adds 3.0 4.2 41.2%
Per Unit 3.14 3.39 3.05 2.87
Blended ARPU $60.09 $58.39 -2.8%
Distributions Paid 657.9 660.2 660.4 433.9
Per Unit 2.89 2.90 2.90 1.90
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
19
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Revenues ($mlns.)
Growth (y/y) -15.1% -8.4% 12.5% 300
EBITDA ($mlns.)
20
Operating Expenses 808.0 732.5 828.2 250
200 15
EBITDA 75.0 76.7 81.9
150 10
Amortization 3.4 2.8 3.8 100
EBT 71.6 73.8 78.1 5
50
Income Tax 14.7 14.7 23.4 0 0
Net Income (Loss) 56.9 59.1 54.7 Q F20 1
Q F20 1
Q F20 2
Q F20 3
Q F20 4
Q F20 4
Q F20 5
Q F20 6
Q F20 7
Q F20 7
Q F20 8
F2 9
0
4- 0
3- 0
2- 0
1- 0
4- 0
3- 0
2- 0
1- 0
4- 0
3- 0
2- 0
1- 0
01
Q F20
150 60%
100 40%
Balance Sheet F2009A F2010E F2011E 50 20%
Cash & ST Investments 203.8 199.5 239.8 0 0%
Goodwill & Intangibles 11.6 11.6 11.6
Q 006
Q 006
Q 007
Q 007
Q 008
Q 008
Q 009
Q 009
0
01
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
1-
3-
1-
3-
1-
3-
1-
3-
1-
21
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Bombardier Inc.
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target C$7.00
BBD.B-TSX (9/13/10) C$5.03 Bombardier designs, manufactures and services aerospace and rail
Key Indices: Toronto transportation markets to customers worldwide with a leading market share
in the majority of segments. The company's aerospace division produces
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 12.1% turboprop, business, commercial, specialty and regional jet aircrafts.
52-week Range C$4.16-C$6.24
Shares Outstanding 1,728.0M
Float 1,459.0M Shrs The long-term opportunities for Bombardier are too large to ignore: 1) the
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 5,393,866 bias for business jet demand should be positive over the next few years; 2)
Market Capitalization $8,455.1M trends in the transportation segment appear favourable; and 3) the CSeries
Dividend/Div Yield C$0.10 / 2.0% should provide Bombardier with significant upside after F2013.
Fiscal Year Ends January
Book Value $2.23 per Shr Bombardier Transportation (BT) manufactures and services a variety of
2010 ROE (E) 15.0% railway rolling stock, systems and signaling equipment. Our revenue
Net Debt $1,273.0M
forecast for BT is based on stable growth as the company converts a
Preferred $392.10M
significant backlog ($30.3 billion as of the end of Q2/F11) into revenue.
Common Equity $3,884.0M
Convertible Available No
We believe the major growth driver for regional jets beyond F2013 will be
Earnings Per Share Current reflected by demand from the CSeries. We expect business jet demand will
2010 $0.39A begin to recover in C2011, albeit at a moderate rate. Growth for business
2011 $0.34E jets beyond F2013 will likely benefit from the introduction of the Learjet 85.
2012 $0.41E
P/E
2010 12.5x
2011 14.4x Stock Price Performance
2012 11.9x
EV/EBITDA
F2010A 5.8x
F2011E 7.1x
F2012E 5.9x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in US dollars, unless otherwise stated.(C$1.028:US$1)
Bombardier Inc. is an internationally diversified
manufacturer supplying aerospace and rail CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
transportation equipment and services. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.bombardier.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Willemse, CFA David Galison
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7285 1 (416) 956-3548
[email protected] [email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010
F2006 A
F2007 A
F2008 A
F2009 A
F2010 A
F2011 E
F2012 E
F2013 E
1
Calculated as CFO divided by Net Income.
2
Calculated as CFO less Capex
Source: Bloomberg, Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc. EBITDA EBIT
*Bombardier Fiscal Years Ending January 31. Fiscal 2011 = Calendar 2010 for comparative purposes. EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin
23
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
P/CF
2009 11.3x
2010 11.7x
2011 11.2x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in US dollars, unless otherwise stated.
BAM is an international diversified property, power &
infrastructure, investment and asset management CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
company with controlling interests in a number of its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
publicly traded subsidiaries. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.brookfield.com/ Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Alex Avery, CFA Brad Sturges, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-8179 1 (416) 594-7399 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
[email protected] [email protected]
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Troy MacLean, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3643
[email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Exceptional Managers Of Long-life, Cash-flow-producing Assets - September 17, 2010
HISTORICAL PREMIUM/(DISCOUNT) TO ESTIMATED NAV BROOK FIELD'S INVESTED CAPITAL - $22 BILLION
40% Development
30% 9% Special Situations
20% 9%
10% Commercial
Properties Cash, Financial
0%
23% Assets, Other
(10%)
14%
(20%)
(30%) Infrastructure
Renewable Power
(40%) 9%
36%
Q3/99 Q1/01 Q3/02 Q1/04 Q4/05 Q2/07 Q4/08 Q2/10
Note: June 2010, Prior to corporate liabilities
Source: Company reports, Thomson One Reuters and CIBC World Markets Inc.
25
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
CAE Inc.
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $12.00
CAE-TSX (9/13/10) $10.44 CAE is a global leader in full flight simulators and flight training services.
Key Indices: DJ Ind, Toronto The company holds a dominant market share for civil aircraft simulators,
civil aviation training and continues to build its leading position in the
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 11.8% military market.
52-week Range $8.34-$10.62
Shares Outstanding 256.5M
Float 209.6M Shrs The main drivers for CAE going forward include an eventual rebound in the
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 515,127 civil simulator and training markets, continued growth at the military
Market Capitalization $2,677.9M operations and the successful penetration of the helicopter and healthcare
Dividend/Div Yield $0.16 / 1.5% markets. These growth drivers are somewhat offset by currency headwinds.
Fiscal Year Ends March
Book Value $4.64 per Shr Although the economic downturn in C2009 created some headwinds for CAE
2010 ROE (E) 13.4% over the past year, overall growth for the company has been impressive
Net Debt $296.7M
over the past few years. For the year ending F2010, the eight-year revenue
Preferred Nil
and EBITDA CAGR for CAE was 5.3% and 3.8%, respectively.
Common Equity $1,191.2M
Convertible Available No
CAE’s dominant market share, strong geographic coverage, and ability to
Operating Earnings Per Share Current easily adapt to regulations and customs in new countries have allowed the
2010 $0.65A company to penetrate new business opportunities in emerging markets
2011 $0.64E quickly and cost effectively.
2012 $0.71E
P/E
2010 16.1x
2011 16.3x Stock Price Performance
2012 14.7x
EV/EBITDA
F2010A 8.4x
F2011E 8.4x
F2012E 7.4x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
CAE Inc. provides modeling, simulation and training
products and services for commercial and government CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
customers worldwide. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.cae.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Willemse, CFA David Galison
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7285 1 (416) 956-3548
[email protected] [email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010
F2007
F2008
F2009
F2010
F2011
F2012
1
Calculated as CFO divided by Net Income.
E
2
Calculated as CFO less Capex
EBITDA EBIT
Source: Bloomberg, Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin
*CAE Fiscal Years Ending March 31. Fiscal 2011 = Calendar 2010 for comparative purposes.
27
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
CIBC is one of North America's leading financial
institutions with almost seven million personal banking CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
and business customers. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.cibc.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
[email protected] [email protected]
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
[email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Falling Loan Losses Should Support Earnings Growth In F2011 - September 17, 2010
CIBC
All Figures in $ millions, except per share data (excl. one-time items)
KEY MULTI PLES F2009A F2010E F2011E SEGMENTED EARNINGS CONTRIBUTION
P/E Multiple 12.8x 11.5x 10.6x
Peer average 12.7x 11.5x 125%
3% 2%
Q3-10 100% 18%
11% 26%
P/BVPS 2.4x 23%
Peer average 2.1x 75%
OPERATING PERFORMANCE F2009A F2010E F2011E 50% 87% 88%
Core cash EPS $5.88 $6.53 $7.08 73% 79%
Sep-03
Sep-07
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
% change 89% (14%) (19%)
C urrent R elativ e P/E 6-m onth M ov ing Av erage
Non-interest expenses 6,588 6,816 7,012 Plus 1 Standard Dev iation M inus 1 s tandard Dev iation
% change (2.3%) 3.5% 2.9%
CAPI TAL MEASURES F2009A F2010E F2011E P/BVPS MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP
Tier 1 capital ratio 12.1% 14.4% 15.2% 140%
Tangible common equity to RWA 7.2% 9.3% 10.3% 10-y ear Av erage Relativ e P/B = 108% Current R elativ e P/B = 117%
Tangible common equity to tangible assets 2.5% 2.9% 3.1% 130%
Risk Weighted Assets 117,300 108,004 111,281 120%
110%
LOAN BOOK F2009A F2010E F2011E
Residential Mortgages 86,152 96,769 99,705 100%
Personal and credit cards 45,677 45,943 47,337
90%
Business and government 37,343 38,286 39,448
Gross Loans 169,172 180,998 186,490 80%
Acceptances 8,397 7,382 7,682 70%
Total Gross Loans & Acceptances 177,569 188,380 194,172
Sep-00
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
N otes :
(1) PC Ls as a % of av erage net loans and acceptances (ex cl. repos ).
(2) Total ACLs as a % of GILs.
(3) Ex cludes gains /(losses ) on inv estm ent sec urities.
29
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Canada's largest, and one of six Class 1 North
American rails. CN's 19,200 miles of rail spans across CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
Canada and south through the U.S., connecting to all its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
three coasts. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.cn.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Jacob Bout, CFA Kevin Chiang
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-6766 1 (416) 594-7198
[email protected] [email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Class-leading Operating Efficiency - September 17, 2010
70% 12%
65%
8%
60%
55% 4%
2010E
2011E
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
31
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
CP is one of two Canadian Class 1 railways and has a
bulk freight orientation. It provides freight services CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
across Canada from Montreal to Vancouver and into key its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
centers in the US Midwest & Northeast. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.cpr.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Jacob Bout, CFA Kevin Chiang
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-6766 1 (416) 594-7198
[email protected] [email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Continued Focus On Operating Efficiency - September 17, 2010
Balance Sheet Q2/10 Deregulation Of Canadian Grain: Ability to increase “turn” – grain handlers on side.
Cash + ST Investments 374
Current Assets 1,151 Potash / Coal: Risk of Canpotex diversifying potash contract post-2012 (CP currently the
PP&E 12,045 exclusive shipper for Canpotex) and Teck moving more coal tonnage through other rail
Total Assets 13,739 carriers.
Current Liabilities 1,020
LT Debt 4,160 Pension: Pension expense will be headwind over the next 3-4 years.
Total Liabilities 8,857
Shareholders' Equity 4,882
84% 16%
82%
80% 12%
78%
76%
8%
74%
72%
70% 4%
2010E
2011E
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
33
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
CWB is focused on Western Canada. It specializes in
commercial loans, energy loans, construction and real CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
estate project financing, and industrial equipment its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
financing. It also offers retail banking. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.cwbankgroup.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
[email protected] [email protected]
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
[email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Strong Performance And Positive Outlook Support Premium Valuation - September 17, 2010
F2009A Q3-10
Gross impaired loans 137.9 150.0 25%
Specific ACLs 14.3 16.7
Total ACLs 75.5 75.7 0%
(2)
Classical Coverage ratio 55% 51% F2007A F2008A F2009A Q3-10
Specific ACLs to GILs 10% 11%
General ACLs as % of Gross Loans 0.66% 0.57% Banking & Trust Insurance
KEY EARNI NGS DRIVERS F2009A F2010E F2011E FORWARD P/E MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP (based on consensus estimates)
Core net interest income 236.4 325.7 355.7 180%
% change 3.4% 37.8% 9.2% 10-y r Av g Relativ e Fw d P/ E: 112% C urrent R elativ e F w d P/E: 114%
Provision for credit losses 13.5 20.9 23.2 160%
% change 13% 54% 11% 140%
Non-interest expenses 156.5 189.5 206.6 120%
% change 15.8% 21.1% 9.0%
100%
CAPI TAL MEASURES F2009A F2010E F2011E
80%
Tier 1 capital ratio 11.3% 11.6% 12.6%
Tangible common equity to RWA 8.1% 8.3% 9.0% 60%
Tangible common equity to tangible assets 6.5% 7.0% 7.6% Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10
Risk Weighted Assets 9,396 10,345 10,872 Current Relativ e Fw d P/E 10-y r Av g R elativ e
LOAN BOOK F2009A F2010E F2011E P/BVPS MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP
Residential mortgages 2,282 2,348 2,467 160%
Other 7,029 7,960 8,366 10-y r Av g Relativ e P/ B: 92% Current R elativ e P/B: 95%
Total Gross Loans 9,312 10,308 10,833 140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
N otes : Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10
(1) PC Ls as a % of av erage net loans (ex c l. repos).
C urrent Relativ e P/ B 10-y r Av g R elativ e
(2) Total ACLs as a % of GILs.
35
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
CGI Group Inc. is Canada's largest independent IT
service outsourcing and integration company. CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.cgi.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Lechem Stephanie Price, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-6429 1 (416) 594-7047
[email protected] [email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010
Orgainc Growth
Book to Bill
10% 1.50
Income Statement F2009A F2010E F2011E
5% 1.25
Sales 3825.2 3723.6 4562.5 0% 1.00
Growth (y/y) 3.2% -2.7% 22.5% -5% 0.75
Operating Expenses 3161.8 3045.4 3769.9 -10% 0.50
EBITDA 663.4 678.1 792.6
Q4-F2005
Q3-F2006
Q2-F2007
Q1-F2008
Q1-F2002
Q4-F2002
Q3-F2003
Q2-F2004
Q1-F2005
Q4-F2008
Q3-F2009
Q2-F2010
Amortization 204.4 187.3 222.0
EBIT 459.0 490.8 570.6
Constant Currency Revenue Growth Book-to-bill
Interest, FX & Other (17.9) (15.3) (30.4)
EBT 441.1 475.5 540.2
Tax Expense (Recovery) 125.2 116.7 172.9
Adj. Net Income (Loss) 316.5 328.1 367.4
Cash Flow
Adj. FD EPS $1.02 $1.12 $1.30 200
Cash Flow ($mlns.)
150
Free Cash Flow Performance F2009A F2010E F2011E 100
Cash Flow From Operations 630.2 585.0 557.5 50
Capital Expenditures (69.2) (41.4) (37.0) 0
Q3 0 02
Q2 0 03
Q1 04
Q4 0 05
Q3 0 05
Q2 0 06
Q1 0 07
Q4 0 08
Q3 0 08
Q2 0 09
20
20
2
-F
-F
-F
-F
-F
-F
-F
-F
-F
-F
-F
Q1
Goodwill and Intangible Assets 1674.8 2517.4 2517.4 Free Cash Flow
Total Assets 3899.9 4639.5 4921.1 4 per. Mov. Avg. (Free Cash Flow)
37
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
CI Financial Corp.
Stock Rating:
Sector Underperformer
Returning Lots Of Cash To Shareholders As Growth
Sector Weighting:
Slows
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $18.75
CIX-TSX (9/13/10) $20.34 CI is the third-largest mutual fund manager in Canada with $63.2 billion in
Key Indices: Toronto retail AUM. Due to its scale and a management team that is very focused on
the bottom line, the company is generating a pre-tax profit margin in
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM excess of 30% and annual free cash flow of more than $300MM.
52-week Range $17.69-$22.67
Shares Outstanding 288.1M
Float 185.6M Shrs Growth has become more challenging (AUM is up 0.6% YTD) and
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 310,000 management is aggressively returning cash to shareholders. The dividend
Market Capitalization $5,860.0M has been increased by 30% over the past year and roughly $100MM of
Dividend/Div Yield $0.78 / 3.8% stock has been repurchased. Further buybacks should be expected.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $5.51 per Shr It was recently announced that Stephen MacPhail will assume the CEO role
2011 ROE (E) 20.9% while Bill Holland will focus on strategic initiatives as Executive Chairman. Sun
LT Debt $667.7M
Life has been a very important partner for CI since 2002, but announced that
Preferred Nil
it is starting its own Canadian mutual fund company in 2010.
Common Equity $1,587.1M
Convertible Available No
CI trades at 16.7x forward 2011 earnings, a premium to other Canadian
Earnings Per Share Current asset managers at 12.1x and U.S. asset managers at 12.9x. We believe the
2009 $0.95A premium valuation that CI commands is too high given slowing growth. We
2010 $1.09E rate CI Sector Underperformer with an $18.75 price target.
2011 $1.22E
P/E
2009 21.4x
2010 18.7x Stock Price Performance
2011 16.7x
EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009 $576.1A
2010 $646.2E
2011 $694.3E
EV/EBITDA
2009 10.7x
2010 9.5x
2011 8.9x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
CI Financial Corp. is a diversified wealth management
firm and one of Canada’s largest independent CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
Canadian-owned investment fund companies. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.ci.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Holden, CFA Kevin Cheng, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-8417 1 (416) 956-6676
[email protected] [email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Returning Lots Of Cash To Shareholders As Growth Slows - September 17, 2010
CI Financial 21.4x 18.7x 16.7x CI Financial's premium valuation relative to its Canadian mutual fund peers should narrow as net
Canadian Asset Managers (ex-CI) 16.5x 14.6x 12.1x seg fund sales for the industry are expected to be less robust than in the previous three years. In
U.S. Asset Managers 20.2x 15.5x 12.9x addition, given the uncertainty surrounding CI's distribution agreement with Sun Life Financial,
CI's AUM growth outlook is less clear.
Key Financial Metrics ($ mns) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Management believes that the Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-SP) will remain a passive
shareholder in the near-term, which removes some upside potential. BNS owns 36% of CI and
1
EBITDA 656 576 646 694 is unlikely to complete the CI acquisition during our forecast period.
ROE 19.6% 17.3% 19.4% 20.9% However, we believe a multiple of 15.5x 2011E EPS is appropriate for CI in the absence of any
Dividends per Share 1.88 0.62 0.76 0.90 transaction with BNS. A premium versus the other Canadian fund managers is still justified
Average Retail AUM 60,218 55,389 62,838 66,735 based on CI's scale, profit margins, net sales and management's intention to return a high
Total Assets Under Administration 25,675 22,230 21,323 22,097 proportion of free cash flow to shareholders. Our valuation multiple equates to a price of
Gross Sales 11,604 8,575 10,165 11,358 approximately $18.75.
Gross Redemptions 9,851 7,124 8,569 9,541 Chart 1: CI Long term fund net sales ($ MM)
Net Sales 1,752 1,451 1,596 1,817
600,000
200,000
Revenue 1,512 1,218 1,345 1,430
Oper. Expenses 856 642 699 735 0
EBITDA 656 576 646 694
-200,000
Amortization of deferred sales commissions 147 164 173 178
Other amortization 14 7 8 7 -400,000
EBIT 495 405 465 509
-600,000
Interest Expense 42 24 16 19
EBT 402 308 408 440 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
Tax Expense (Recovery) (17) 41 121 124 CI Long Term Net Sales CI Long Term Net Sales (12-mth m.a.)
Free Cash Flow Per Share 1.33 1.35 1.07 1.14 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
39
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009A $159.9
2010E $172.1
2011E $187.5
EV/EBITDA
2009A 9.2x
2010E 8.5x
2011E 7.8x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Cineplex Entertainment LP is the leading exhibitor of
motion pictures in the Canadian entertainment industry. CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
It currently includes 129 theatres and 1,328 screens its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
across Canada. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.cineplexodeon.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Bek, CFA Tony Rizzi investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7454 1 (416) 594-7299 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
[email protected] [email protected]
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Lee, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7907
[email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Tough Box Office Comparables Ahead; Concessions And Media Continue to Grow - September 17, 2010
Cineplex Galaxy - 9.2x 8.5x 7.8x Cineplex is the largest exhbitor in Canada, with a commanding 67% share of national box
Regal Entertainment - 7.4x 7.0x 6.3x office revenues, and its size and scope consitutes a material barrier to entry, while
providing strategic importance with film distributors, concession suppliers, and advertisers.
Cinemark Holdings - 7.2x 7.2x 7.2x
Cineplex also operates a national in-theater advertising network with 94% market share.
Carmike Cinemas - 7.7x 6.0x 5.3x
Cineplex Galaxy - 22.3x 17.3x 17.3x We believe that CGX will gain stronger earnings potential as the premium for 3D becomes
Regal Entertainment - 19.8x 19.8x 19.8x more apparent over the next few years. CGX is targeting ~30% of its screens to be 3D
Cinemark Holdings - 18.4x 13.4x 12.1x equipped (currently at 17%), and will become a more visible contributor to top-line growth.
Carmike Cinemas - NM NM 11.0x CGX has announced plans for conversion to a corporation on January 1, 2011 maintaining
its $1.26 cash distribution and high-yield structure. CGX has a tax pool in excess of $600
Key Financial Metrics 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E million (and can be utilized at a rate of ~9.0% per year) which can be used to shelter its
earnings power by offsetting its cash tax liability in the coming years.
Distributable Cash Flow Yield 9.6% 11.1% 12.1% 12.2% We continue to recommend CGX to income-oriented investors, given its material tax pool
Payout Ratio 66.9% 58.8% 53.8% 53.2% and strong yield. 3D premiums should also be a catalyst for sustained earnings growth
Long-term Debt / EBITDA 2.3x 2.1x 1.9x 1.8x over the longer term.
Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Chart 1: Revenues & EBITDA By Segment (2010E)
100%
Revenue 849.7 964.3 1,045.6 1,119.4 10.3% 17.0%
OpEx 704.7 804.4 873.5 931.9 75% 29.4%
EBITDA 144.9 159.9 172.1 187.5 37.8%
Amortization 67.4 80.4 79.7 82.0 50%
EBIT 73.7 77.0 92.0 105.5
Net Interest Expense 25.4 23.0 22.7 22.6 60.3%
25% 45.2%
EBT 34.2 53.9 69.3 82.9
Tax Expense (Recovery) (0.3) 1.1 (0.4) 13.3 0%
Revenues EBITDA
Net Income 34.5 53.4 69.7 69.7 Box Office Concessions Media
Adj. FD EPU 0.60 0.95 1.22 1.22
Distributable Cash Flow 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Key Operating Statistics (Last Reported Qtr.)
41
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009 $88.1A
2010 $104.5E
2011 $115.6E
EV/EBITDA
2009 10.2x
2010 8.6x
2011 7.7x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in US dollars, unless otherwise stated.(C$1.027:US$1)
Constellation Software acquires, manages and builds
vertical market software businesses. CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.csisoftware.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Lechem Stephanie Price, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-6429 1 (416) 594-7047
[email protected] [email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010
Q3-F2005
Q1-F2006
Q3-F2006
Q1-F2007
Q3-F2007
Q1-F2008
Q3-F2008
Q1-F2009
Q3-F2009
Q1-F2010
EBIT 20.1 32.5 42.9
Interest, FX & Other (6.3) (3.3) (1.8)
EBT 17.5 29.9 41.1
Organic Growth Acquired Growth
Tax Expense (Recovery) 7.2 11.8 16.0
Net revenue growth
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) 62.4 78.4 87.8
Adj. FD EPS $2.95 $3.70 $4.14
Q3-F2005
Q1-F2006
Q3-F2006
Q1-F2007
Q3-F2007
Q1-F2008
Q3-F2008
Q1-F2009
Q3-F2009
Q1-F2010
43
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009A $251.2
2010E $266.8
2011E $287.9
EV/EBITDA
2009A 9.4x
2010E 8.9x
2011E 8.2x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Corus Entertainment Inc. is one of Canada's largest
radio broadcasters, and among the leaders in specialty CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
TV and children's programming. The Shaw family its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
controls Corus. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.corusent.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Bek, CFA Tony Rizzi investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7454 1 (416) 594-7299 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
[email protected] [email protected]
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Lee, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7907
[email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Return Of Ad Spend In Radio And TV Continue To Drive EBITDA Growth - September 17, 2010
Corus Entertainment - 9.4x 8.9x 8.2x Corus is a Canadian based media and entertainment company with interests in radio
Astral Media - 9.6x 9.0x 8.5x broadcasting, television broadcasting, and the production and distribution of children's
U.S. Specialty TV Peers - 13.9x 11.0x 9.7x media content. The principle assets include 50 radio stations; a variety of pay and specialty
TV networks; and Nelvana, an international kids content producer/distributor.
U.S. Media Conglomerate Peers - 8.9x 7.6x 7.0x
Corus Entertainment - 14.6x 13.7x 12.9x Corus offers investors a diversified revenue stream, generating a large portion of sales
Astral Media - 13.7x 13.1x 12.0x (~33%) from subscriber-related affiliate fees which are more stable than ad revenues,
U.S. Specialty TV Peers - 27.8x 21.5x 18.4x giving good downside protection.As Canada's 2nd largest radio operator, Corus' dominant
position helps reduce volatility associated with the cyclical nature of the business.
U.S. Media Conglomerate Peers - 20.5x 14.1x 12.3x
The Television segment continues to post solid gains, driven by strong conditions at Corus
Key Financial Metrics 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Kids, the development of new specialty channels, and increased penetration of digital
boxes. Radio is showing solid signs of recovering, and we expect the positive pace to
continue as ad markets improve.
Free Cash Flow Yield 8.0% 6.4% 2.6% 5.8%
Payout Ratio 38.0% 50.4% 135.1% 59.7% Overall, we continue to see many positives to the story for Corus in F2010. While ad
Net Debt / EBITDA 2.7x 2.6x 2.5x 1.9x visibility is a concern, consumer confidence has increased and ad tone has improved, and
Effective Tax Rate 20.9% 1288.3% 23.4% 32.0% the outlook for F2010 appears more optimistic.
Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Chart 1: Revenues & EBITDA By Segment (2010E)
100%
Revenue 787.2 788.7 839.2 891.0
31.2% 22.0%
OpEx 535.0 537.6 572.4 603.1 75%
EBITDA 252.1 251.2 266.8 287.9
Depreciation 22.1 20.7 23.6 28.0 50%
EBIT 230.1 230.5 243.2 259.9 78.0%
68.8%
Interest Expense 41.3 37.4 46.8 54.2 25%
EBT 170.0 4.4 185.3 205.7
Tax Expense 35.5 56.4 43.4 65.8 0%
Revenues EBITDA
Net Income 129.8 (56.6) 135.6 133.6 Television Radio
Adj. FD EPS 1.40 1.45 1.55 1.64
Free Cash Flow 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Key Operating Statistics (Last Reported Qtr.)
Q3/09 Q3/10 y/y Growth
EBITDA 252.1 251.2 266.8 287.9 Television Revenues
Plus: Program & Film Rights Amortization 174.1 185.1 195.3 175.0 Kids 50.3 57.4 14.1%
Less: Specialty and Pay 79.5 89.6 12.7%
Program & Film Rights Payment 198.2 232.5 225.8 215.0 Radio Revenues
Capex 17.6 22.5 87.9 30.0 West 25.1 25.1 0.3%
Cash Taxes 42.8 42.7 61.6 73.0 Ontario 20.5 24.5 19.1%
Cash Interest 41.3 37.4 46.8 54.2 Quebec and Other 19.9 21.8 9.6%
Movie Central ('000)
Subscribers 951.0 970.0 2.0%
Operating Free Cash Flow (FCF) 126.3 101.1 40.0 90.7
Net Additions 30.0 (3.0) NM
Operating FCF Per Share 1.50 1.27 0.49 1.11
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
45
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Revenues ($mlns.)
Net Margin 19.5% 4.7% 9.4%
Y/Y Growth (% )
25 60%
Cash Per Share $0.28 $0.20 $0.16 20 40%
Net Debt/EBITDA NA NA NA 15 20%
10 0%
5 -20%
Income Statement F2010A F2011E F2012E 0 -40%
Sales 73.8 97.5 119.0
1- 00
1- 0 1
F 4
F 5
F 7
F 8
1
1 - 02
1- 03
F 6
F 9
F2 0
Q 20 0
Q 2 00
01
Q 200
Q 2 00
Q 200
Q 200
Q 2 01
Growth (y/y) 11.7% 32.2% 22.0%
20
0
F2
F2
F2
F
F
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
Gross Profit 50.6 65.2 81.5
Q
Q
Operating Expenses 35.6 43.2 52.7 Total Revenues y/y growth
Adjusted EBITDA 20.3 25.1 31.7
Amortization (8.8) (13.5) (12.5)
Interest 0.3 0.2 0.2
EBT 6.7 8.0 18.5
Tax Expense (Recovery) (7.6) 3.4 7.2
Net Income (Loss) 14.4 4.6 11.2 Cash / Free Cash Flow
Adj. FD EPS $0.36 $0.40 $0.51
250 10
Q2-F2002
Q4-F2003
Q1-F2006
Q3-F2007
Q1-F2009
Q3-F2010
Q1-F2000
Q3-F2001
Q1-F2003
Q3-F2004
Q2-F2005
Q4-F2006
Q2-F2008
Q4-F2009
Q2-F2011
47
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Dorel Industries, Inc. is a vertically integrated consumer
products manufacturer focusing on three market CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
segments: juvenile products, recreational/leisure and its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
home furnishings. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.dorel.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
CIBC World Markets Inc. See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7000 end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile – September 17, 2010
49
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
FirstService Corporation
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target C$31.50
FSV-TSX (9/13/10) C$23.19 FirstService provides property-related services through three divisions:
Key Indices: NASDAQ, Toronto commercial real estate brokerage (Colliers), residential property
management, and property services, including franchise operations and
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 10.0% Field Asset Services (FAS), a manager of foreclosed properties.
52-week Range C$17.50-C$24.96
Shares Outstanding 29.9M
Float 23.0M Shrs Transaction volumes at Colliers fell during the credit crisis. FirstService
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. NM responded by cutting $52 million in costs in the division and reducing broker
Market Capitalization $675.2M commissions. Today, the division is seeing operating leverage as markets
Dividend/Div Yield Nil / Nil improve, with margins up +400 bps year over year in Q2.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $6.07 per Shr FAS saw strong growth during the U.S. housing downturn, growing from $8
2010 ROE (E) NM million LTM EBITDA on acquisition in October 2007 to ~$50 million.
Net Debt $236.0M
However, growth has slowed in the division (-2% year over year in Q2) as
Preferred $144.31M
government loan modification programs lengthen the foreclosure process.
Common Equity $181.5M
Convertible Available No
While short-term results could be lumpy (given U.S. economic uncertainty,
Earnings Per Share (FD) Current slower FAS growth), longer term, we expect FirstService to benefit from
2009 $1.42A recent cost cuts, plus the Colliers rebranding (and expanded product
2010 $1.79E offering). We rate FirstService Sector Outperformer with a C$31.50 PT.
2011 $2.18E
P/E (FD)
2009 15.9x
2010 12.6x Stock Price Performance
2011 10.4x
EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009 $133.1A
2010 $161.1E
2011 $184.8E
EV/EBITDA
2009 8.9x
2010 7.4x
2011 6.4x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in US dollars, unless otherwise stated.(C$1.027:US$1)
FirstService Corporation is a leading provider of
property, business and commercial real estate services CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
to consumers and corporations in North America. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.firstservice.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Stephanie Price, CFA Paul Lechem
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7047 1 (416) 956-6429
[email protected] [email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010
Key Multiples C2009A C2010E C2011E The company was impacted by the global slowdown in real estate, with the
impact seen mostly in its commercial real estate division. Its residential property
P/E 16.1x 12.8x 10.5x
management division has proven resilient, and a slowdown in franchise
EV/EBITDA 9.2x 7.6x 6.6x operations in its property services division was offset by superb results from its
Peers (Average) home foreclosure services business, Field Asset Services.
P/E 31.7x 26.2x 16.2x While commercial real estate markets are unlikely to recover materially until well
EV/EBITDA 11.7x 10.4x 8.6x into 2010, FirstService has now shifted focus from cost cutting and retrenchment
to a more growth-oriented stance.
Profitability C2009A C2010E C2011E
Gross Margin 37.6% 38.1% 39.3%
Adjusted EBITDA 7.8% 8.3% 9.0%
Adjusted Net Margin 2.5% 2.8% 3.2%
Cash Per Share $1.08 $0.87 $0.53 300 Quarterly Revenues by Division
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.60 1.26 0.64 250
200
$mlns.
Income Statement C2009A C2010E C2011E 150
Sales 1703.2 1935.8 2045.1 100
Growth (y/y) 0.1% 13.7% 5.6% 50
Gross Profit 640.8 737.8 803.0 0
Operating Expenses 526.7 579.8 621.1
Q 003
Q 003
Q 005
Q 006
Q 006
Q 007
Q 008
Q 009
9
Q 004
00
Adjusted EBITDA 133.1 161.1 184.8 F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
1-
4-
3-
2-
1-
4-
3-
2-
1-
4-
Amortization (76.4) (44.3) (50.8)
Q
Q 008
0
Q 005
Q 006
Q 007
Q 008
Q 009
9
01
Q 00
Q 00
Q 00
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
4-
2-
4-
2-
4-
2-
4-
2-
4-
2-
Q
51
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009 $78.6A
2010 $89.0E
2011 $100.9E
EV/EBITDA
2009 9.3x
2010 8.2x
2011 7.3x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
GENIVAR provides engineering, project management
and environmental consulting services to a variety of CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
end markets across Canada. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.genivar.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Lechem Stephanie Price, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-6429 1 (416) 594-7047
[email protected] [email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010
Q F2 0 7
Q -F2 07
Q -F2 07
Q -F2 0 8
Q F2 08
Q -F2 0 9
Q -F2 09
Q -F2 09
0
Q -F2 06
Q -F2 06
Q -F2 07
Q F2 8
Q -F2 08
Q -F2 09
F2 0
2- 00
2- 01
01
4 0
4- 0
1 0
4 0
1 0
2- 0
3 0
1 0
3 0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
Amortization (23.3) (26.2) (27.0)
Q -F2
3
Q
Months of Work
600 8
Payout Ratio 78.9% 64.1% 55.7%
($ mlns.)
500
400 6
300 4
Free Cash Flow F2009A F2010E F2011E 200
100 2
Cash Flow From Operations 52.6 70.2 69.2
0 0
Capital Expenditures (8.0) (6.3) (8.0)
Q -F2 06
Q F2 7
Q F2 7
Q -F2 08
Q -F2 08
Q -F2 09
Q F2 9
Q -F2 0 9
0
Q -F2 06
Q -F2 07
Q -F2 07
Q -F2 08
Q -F2 08
Q -F2 09
F2 0
4- 00
2 - 00
4 - 00
2- 01
01
3 0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
1 0
2 0
3 0
1 0
Q - F2
Backlog
Balance Sheet F2009A F2010E F2011E NTM gross revenues
Cash & ST Investments 51.9 3.6 0.0 Backlog vs. NTM months of work
Goodwill & Amortization 248.9 288.6 320.6
Total Assets 533.1 564.2 612.5
Debt 6.0 32.8 61.1
Total Liabilities 255.7 280.7 314.7
Shareholder's Equity 277.4 283.5 297.8
53
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
600
Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
400
Unemployment Rate
Net Income 335.5 378.7 328.6 330.7 8%
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
55
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
P/B
2007 4.4x
2008 3.5x
2009 2.6x Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Home Capital Group Inc. is a holding company which
operates through its main subsidiary, Home Trust CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
Company. Home Trust offers deposit services, its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
mortgage lending, and credit card issuing services. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.homecapital.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
CIBC World Markets Inc. See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7000 end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010
57
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009 $44.5A
2010 $43.5E
2011 $52.7E
EV/EBITDA
2009 6.8x
2010 7.0x
2011 5.8x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
IBI Income Fund is a design firm focused on urban
development, providing services in planning, design, CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
implementation, analysis and other services across its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
North America and internationally. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.ibigroup.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Lechem Stephanie Price, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-6429 1 (416) 594-7047
[email protected] [email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010
Revenue Growth
50%
Income Statement F2009A F2010E F2011E 40%
30%
Sales 273.7 290.9 325.0 20%
Growth (y/y) 15.1% 6.3% 11.7% 10%
0%
Operating Expenses 229.2 247.4 272.3 -10%
Amortization (12.7) (11.5) (12.5) -20%
EBITDA 44.5 43.5 52.7
F2 5
F2 9
0
5
F2 7
F2 8
9
Q 00
Q 00
Q 00
Q 00
Q 00
Q 200
Q 00
Q 20 0
Q 00
Q 00
01
Interest, FX & Other (11.9) (11.0) (12.4)
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F
3-
3-
3-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
3-
3-
Earnings Before Tax 19.9 21.0 27.8
Q
Provisions For Tax & Discontinued Ops 7.3 8.5 13.1 Organic growth Acquired growth
Net Income (Loss) 12.5 12.5 14.7
EPU $0.76 $0.98 $1.13
Distributable cash 30.3 31.5 30.3
DCPU $1.77 $1.76 $1.66
Cash distributions 27.6 28.6 20.4
Cash distributions per unit $1.61 $1.60 $1.12
Net Debt
Payout ratio 91.1% 90.8% 67.3% (90) 3.5
3.0
(70)
2.5
($mlns.)
Q F20 5
Q F20 6
8
8
9
F2 9
0
1- 0
1- 0
3- 0
1- 0
3- 0
1- 0
3- 0
1- 0
3- 0
3- 0
1- 0
01
Q F 20
Q F 20
Q F20
F
59
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
EV/EBITDA
Current
2009A 13.6x
2010E 9.6x
2011E 7.4x
Source: Reuters
All figures in US dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Company Description CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
IESI-BFC Ltd. is a full-service waste management its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
company providing non-hazardous solid waste have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
collection, transfer, recycling and landfill disposal Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
services in Canada and the U.S. investment decision.
www.bficanada.com/
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Willemse, CFA David Galison
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7285 1 (416) 956-3548
[email protected] [email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010
5%
Cash Flow 2009 A 2010 E 2011 E 2012 E
Operating cash flow (ex WC) $229.0 $306.0 $425.8 $435.4 0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Q1/10
Q2/10
Capex ($122.3) ($132.1) ($168.0) ($174.5) -5%
Working Capital Investments ($14.6) $4.7 $9.6 $13.1
-10%
Free Cash Flow2 $106.7 $173.9 $257.8 $260.9 BIN (CAD) BIN (USA
FCF per Share $1.25 $1.62 $2.12 $2.15
Balance Sheet 2009 A 2010 E 2011 E 2012 E Consolidated Chart
Cash And Equivalents $5.0 $38.9 $21.0 $31.0
$2.000 31.0%
$US Million
2009 A
2010 E
2011 E
2012 E
2013 E
1
Calculated as CFO divided by Net Income.
2
Calculated as CFO less Capex
Revenue adj EBITDA adj EBITDA Margin
Source: Bloomberg, Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
61
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Industrial Alliance
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Conservatism Pays Dividends
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $40.00
IAG-TSX (9/13/10) $32.64 IAG is the fourth-largest life insurance company in Canada by market
Key Indices: Toronto capitalization and asset size. The insurer is organized across four main
business lines: Individual Insurance, Individual Wealth Management, Group
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 9.0% Insurance and Group Pensions.
52-week Range $27.18-$37.40
Shares Outstanding 83.7M
Float 83.7M Shrs IAG's Q2/10 results were notionally in line with our expectations despite a
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 162,000 difficult market environment. The stock has outperformed its peers,
Market Capitalization $2,732.0M although that has not been driven by its own multiple expansion, but rather
Dividend/Div Yield $0.98 / 3.0% the poor performance of its larger rivals.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $24.20 per Shr IAG's pro forma MCCSR ratio sits at 215% at the end of Q2/10. Especially
2010 ROE (E) 12.4% when viewed in the context of a more conservative business mix, strong
LT Debt $525.9M
asset quality, below-average regulatory risk and a reasonable payout ratio,
Preferred $425.00M
the balance sheet is solid, which improves the risk-reward profile.
Common Equity $2,025.8M
Convertible Available No
IAG's investment portfolio is of high quality, which is a plus considering the
Earnings Per Share Current current volatile market environment. IAG trades at a 1.3x P/B, essentially
2009 $2.62A in-line with its peers, versus a nine-year average discount of 20%. We
2010 $2.89E currently rate IAG Sector Outperformer.
2011 $3.23E
P/E
2009 12.5x
2010 11.3x Stock Price Performance
2011 10.1x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Industrial Alliance is the fourth-largest Canadian life
insurance company and manufactures and distributes CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
life insurance and wealth management products its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
nationwide. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.inalco.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
[email protected] [email protected]
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
[email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Conservatism Pays Dividends - September 17, 2010
Source of Earnings Year Ending Forward P/E Multiple* Relative To The Peer Group
Q4-08 Q4-09 Q4-10E Q4-11E 120%
Expected Profit - In-Force Business 391.4 320.5 364.3 387.1 9-year Average Relativ e P/E = 92% Current Relativ e P/E = 56%
Impact of New Business (88.0) (95.6) (103.6) (101.2) 110%
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-06
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Assets Year Ending * Bas ed on c onsensus es timates
Q4-08 Q4-09 P/B Multiple Relative To The Peer Group
Bonds 7,942 9,410
120%
Mortgage Loans 3,508 3,405 9-y ear Av erage Relative P/B = 80% Current Relativ e P/B = 101%
Stocks 1,340 1,896 110%
Real Estate 630 649
Policy Loans 320 381 100%
Cash & Equivalents 258 382
Short-term Investments - - 90%
Other Invested Assets 397 367
Total Invested Assets 14,396 16,490 80%
Sep-05
Sep-10
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
63
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Net Operating Income 360.7 281.6 394.5 492.1 IFC P/BV Vs. US Personal Line Insurers
1.0
Operating EPS 2.96 2.35 3.41 4.30
Premiu
0.8
GAAP EPS 1.05 1.06 3.48 4.30 Av erage Plus One ST. Dev .
0.6
0.4
Investment Performance 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Av erage
Discount
0.2
Ending Assets 6,108.9 7,996.4 8,104.5 8,434.9
0.0
Dividend and Interest Income 328.8 292.7 301.2 335.2
-0.2 Av erage Less One ST. Dev .
Average Income Yield 4.9% 4.2% 3.8% 4.1%
-0.4
Capital Gains/(Losses) (288.0) (172.5) 38.6 0.0
-0.6
Average Investment Yield 0.7% 1.7% 4.2% 4.1%
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09
65
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Key Multiples 2009 2010E 2011E
Jazz P/E 5.8x 12.1x 10.6x
Jazz EV/EBITDA 3.5x 4.7x 4.2x Company Description
Jazz Air LP is indirectly wholly owned by the Jazz Air Income Fund, and has a
Jazz P/CF 3.6x 4.8x 4.6x
strong history in Canadian aviation with its roots going back to the 1930s. Jazz
Operating Ratios 2009 2010E 2011E became publicly traded in February 2006. Under a capacity purchase
Operating Margin 6.0% 3.9% 4.7% agreement with Air Canada, Jazz Air provides service to and from lower-density
Return On Equity 11.5% 5.6% 6.3% markets as well as higher-density markets at off-peak times throughout Canada
Current Ratio 1.13 1.04 1.14 and to and from certain destinations in the United States. Jazz Air currently
Quick Ratio 0.93 0.76 0.84 operates scheduled passenger service on behalf of Air Canada with
LT Debt To Total Capitalization 10.4% 10.5% 10.1% approximately 800 departures per weekday to over 80 destinations in Canada
Dividend Yield 19.9% 13.7% 13.7% and in the United States with a fleet of Canadian-made Bombardier aircraft.
Income Statement 2009 2010E 2011E
Sales 1,473,900 1,469,575 1,559,670 Investment Thesis
EBITDA From Operations 159,086 118,048 131,547 1. Air Canada CPA provides earnings stability but also limits upside potential
Earnings From Operations 92,638 44,339 50,509
FD EPS From Operations 0.75 0.36 0.41 2. Conversion to a corporation - Jazz anticipates conversion will occur after
Cash Flow 2009 2010E 2011E special shareholder meeting scheduled for Sept./10.
CFPS 1.20 0.92 0.96
FCFPS 1.09 0.76 0.86 3. Distribution cut? - May look to cut distribution to fund growth opportunity.
Balance Sheet Q2/F10
4. Diversifying away from Air Canada, focusing on 1) charter; 2) servicing tour
Cash + ST Investments 76,547
operator market; 3) equity investments.
Current Assets 195,139
PP&E 212,865
5. All is clear on labour front - Only outstanding labour contract is with the 33
Total Assets 1,134,272
crew schedulers.
Current Liabilities 185,660
LT Debt 92,606
Management
Total Liabilities 342,532
Mr. Joseph (Joe) D. Randell - President & CEO
Shareholders' Equity 791,740
Mr. Allan Rowe - CFO
Operating Metrics Q2/F10 Mr. Colin Copp - Chief Administrative Officer
Block Hours 93,585 Ms. Jolene Mahody - COO
Departures 69,249
ASM 1,345,703
Pass-throughs
40.9%
CPA
57.4% CPA
87.3%
67
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Laurentian Bank
Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Solid Results With Below-average Risk
Sector Weighting:
Overweight
12-18 mo. Price Target $50.00
LB-TSX (9/13/10) $46.80 LB is the eighth-largest Canadian bank by market capitalization with assets
Key Indices: None of $24 billion as at Q3/F10. Over the last 12 months, LB derived 32% of its
net income from Retail & SME, 33% from Real Estate & Commercial, 29%
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 5.0% from B2B Trust, and 6% from LB Securities.
52-week Range $37.03-$47.67
Shares Outstanding 23.9M
Float 23.9M Shrs LB posted impressive growth in net interest income in Q3/F10 driven by a
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. NM 12-basis-point improvement in the net interest margin. While management
Market Capitalization $1,119.5M cautioned that this increase may come under pressure in subsequent
Dividend/Div Yield $1.44 / 3.1% quarters, we assume some of the captured margin is sustainable.
Fiscal Year Ends October
Book Value $42.08 per Shr With a below-average risk profile and a payout ratio that is well below its
2010 ROE (E) 10.8% target range, we believe LB is well positioned to increase its dividend. We
LT Debt $150.0M
assume this increase will be announced coincident with Q1/F11 reporting,
Preferred $210.00M
but do not rule out a move in Q4/F10.
Common Equity $1,006.6M
Convertible Available No
LB's forward P/E multiple is at a 18% discount relative to peers compared to
Earnings Per Share Current its 10-year average discount of 7%. On a P/B basis, LB trades at a 46%
2009 $3.91A discount relative to peers compared to a 50% discount historically. We
2010 $4.64E believe the discount reflects the bank's group-low ROE.
2011 $4.90E
P/E
2009 12.0x
2010 10.1x Stock Price Performance
2011 9.6x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Laurentian Bank of Canada is a banking institution
operating across Canada and offering diversified CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
financial services to its clients. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.laurentianbank.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
[email protected] [email protected]
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
[email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Solid Results With Below-average Risk - September 17, 2010
Laurentian Bank
All Figures in $ millions, except per share data (excl. one-time items)
KEY MULTI PLES F2009A F2010E F2011E OUR THESIS
P/E Multiple 12.0x 10.1x 9.5x Laurentian continues to trade at a steep discount to its peers on both P/E and P/BVPS multiples. We
Peer average 12.4x 11.4x believe a discount is warranted given the company's relatively low ROE. Given LB's relatively high
fixed cost structure and smaller scale, we do not find the current valuation compelling enough to warrant
Q3-10
a buy recommendation. As such, we currently have a Sector Performer rating on the stock.
P/BVPS 1.1x
Peer average 2.0x
OPERATING PERFORMANCE F2009A F2010E F2011E SEGMENTED EARNINGS CONTRIBUTION
Core cash EPS $3.91 $4.64 $4.90
Annual EPS growth 8.3% 18.5% 5.7% 150%
7.0%
Core cash ROE 10.2% 11.1% 10.8% 125% 7. 9% 1. 7% 8.1%
Efficiency ratio 70.1% 67.9% 68.7% 100% 39.3%
33.8% 35.5% 30.4%
Operating leverage (YoY) 1.3% 8.4% (0.7% )
75% 34.7%
23.9% 29.1% 36.0%
CREDIT METRICS F2009A F2010E F2011E 50%
(1)
Loan loss rate 0.38% 0.40% 0.35% 25% 47.6% 41.8% 35.6%
37.5%
F2009A Q3-10 0% -13.2% -12.1%
-8.2% -32.9%
Gross impaired loans 137.5 182.5 -25%
Specific ACLs 41.3 56.7
Total ACLs 114.5 130.0 -50%
(2) F2007A F2008A F2009A Q3-10
Classical Coverage ratio 83% 71%
Retail & SME Quebec Real Estate & Commercial
Specific ACLs to GILs 30% 31%
B2B Trust Laurentian Bank Securities & Capital Markets
General ACLs as % of Gross Loans 0.46% 0.42% Other
KEY EARNI NGS DRIVERS F2009A F2010E F2011E FORWARD P/E MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP (based on consensus estimates)
Core net interest income 423.8 499.2 534.6
150%
% change 4.6% 17.8% 7.1% 10-y r Av g R elativ e F w d P/E: 93% Current R elativ e Fw d P/E: 82%
Total capital markets related revenue 62.3 65.9 60.0
125%
% change 14% 6% (9%)
Provision for credit losses 56.0 67.7 61.1
100%
% change 15% 21% (10%)
Non-interest expenses 467.0 499.2 523.6
75%
% change 4.7% 6.9% 4.9%
CAPI TAL MEASURES F2009A F2010E F2011E 50%
Tier 1 capital ratio 11.0% 10.9% 11.6% Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10
Tangible common equity to RWA 8.5% 8.5% 9.2%
Tangible common equity to tangible assets 3.7% 3.7% 3.9% Current Relativ e Fw d P/ E 10-y r Av g R elativ e
Risk Weighted Assets 9,481 10,321 10,634
LOAN BOOK F2009A F2010E F2011E P/BVPS MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP
Personal 5,655 5,702 5,875 80%
Residential mortgage 7,220 8,470 8,727 10-y r Av g R elativ e P/B: 50% Current R elativ e P/B: 54%
Commercial mortgage 1,285 1,524 1,570 70%
Commercial and other 1,556 1,727 1,779
Gross Loans 15,716 17,423 17,952 60%
Acceptances 217 191 202 50%
Total Gross Loans & Acceptances 15,933 17,614 18,155
40%
N otes : 30%
(1) PC Ls as a % of av erage net loans and acceptances (ex cl. repos ). Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10
(2) Total ACLs as a % of GILs. C urrent R elativ e P/B 10-y r Av g R elativ e
69
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Linamar Corporation
Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Company Profile
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $23.00
LNR-TSX (9/13/10) $19.31 Linamar designs and manufactures precision-machined components,
Key Indices: Toronto modules and assemblies for engine, transmission, braking and suspension
applications in light vehicle and heavy truck markets. The company has 37
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM manufacturing operations globally and over 11,100 employees.
52-week Range $12.00-$23.50
Shares Outstanding 64.7M
Float 45.6M Shrs Linamar is in the process of ramping up approximately $1.8 billion in launch
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 119,655 activity over the next few years. New program launches are expected to
Market Capitalization $1,249.4M contribute approximately $250 million-$450 million in additional revenue in
Dividend/Div Yield $0.24 / 1.2% both 2010 and 2011.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $12.15 per Shr Management anticipates the medium/heavy-duty and off-road truck
2010 ROE (E) 10.9% markets should improve significantly in 2011 versus 2010. Industry
Net Debt $339.7M
forecasts suggest growth of up to 40% year over year, above our prior
Preferred Nil
forecast of approximately 20% growth in 2011.
Common Equity $825.3M
Convertible Available No
Linamar's industrials segment remains challenging, although losses have
FD EPS Current declined over the past few quarters. Activity levels at Skyjack appear to
2009 $0.02A have started picking up (mildly). Overall we do not expect Linamar’s
2010 $1.44E Skyjack or agricultural operations to turn around significantly until 2012.
2011 $1.75E
P/E
2009 NM
2010 13.4x Stock Price Performance
2011 11.0x
EV/EBITDA
2009A 8.6x
2010E 5.4x
2011E 4.7x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Linamar Corporation designs and manufactures
precision-machined components and modules for CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
engine, transmission and chassis applications for sale to its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.linamar.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Willemse, CFA David Galison
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7285 1 (416) 956-3548
[email protected] [email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010
12- To 18-Month Price Target: $23 David Galison, MBA 416-956-3548 [email protected]
Linamar 13.4x 5.3x 10.5x 4.3x Linamar designs and manufactures precision-machined components, modules and
Canadian Peers 12.8x 5.3x 9.8x 4.4x assemblies for engine, transmission, braking and suspension applications in light vehicle
and heavy truck markets.
US Peers 13.2x 5.8x 9.8x 4.8x
NA Peers 13.4x 5.7x 9.9x 4.7x Linamar is ramping up several large transmission and engine platforms in 2010. Including
Historical Price To Forward Earnings 13.0x both new program launches and takeover business, Linamar is ramping up approximately
Historical EV/TTM EBITDA 5.0x $250-$450 million in new business. Approximately 50% of this business was launched in
Q1/10. We expect 40% will launch in Q2/10, with the remaining 10% over 2H/10. Peak
Operating Performance 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
annualized volumes revenue from these new programs should be as follows: i) $750
Return on Equity 8.1% -4.2% 11.2% 12.6% million in transmission programs (these programs will be at 70-80% of peak volumes in
Return on Capital Employed 6.3% -1.9% 8.6% 9.8% 2010); ii) $625 million in engine programs (programs will be at 40-50% of peak volumes in
2010); iii) $425 million in driveline programs (programs will be at 10-16% of peak volumes
EBITDA Margin 13.1% 11.3% 13.8% 13.5%
in 2010); and iv) $150 in energy/heavy industry programs (will be at 5-10% of peak
EBIT Margin 5.3% 0.6% 6.7% 7.0% volumes in 2010). Approximately $150-$200 million in programs will roll off in 2010.
EBT Margin 4.5% -3.9% 6.1% 6.4%
Net Margin 3.2% -2.8% 4.3% 4.6% Linamar successfully reduced the company's cost structure during the recent downturn
and should benefit from favorable operating leverage as volumes continue to ramp-up.
LNR NA Vehicle Prod 12.93 8.65 11.38 11.95
However, Linamar is somewhat at risk of a continued downturn in non-residential
NA Content Per Vehicle $101.28 $130.32 $140.62 $149.06 construction markets through the company’s Skyjack operations.
LNR European Vehicle Prod 21.29 17.19 18.41 18.96
European Content Per Vehicle $7.58 $6.81 $7.54 $7.91
Production in millions
Quality of Earnings 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Auto Industry Statistics Seq y/y
Cash Realization Ratio1 3.6x -6.4x 2.4x 2.3x US Ligth Vehicle Sales (SAAR): 11.44 August -1.2% -18.6%
P/FCF 16.8x 7.5x -64.5x 32.9x US Domestic Inventory (Days) 53 August 3.1% 76.7%
FCF Yield 6.0% 13.3% -1.5% 3.0% NA Production Schedule: 3.044 Q3/10E -1.3% 27.2%
Implied Tax Rate 27.8% 46.7% 29.0% 29.0% Big 3 NA Prod Schedule: 1.711 Q3/10E -3.3% 34.2%
Interest Coverage 159.8x 1870.7x 91.0x 74.7x Production and Sales in millions
Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Valuation & Outlook
Sales $2,257.0 $1,675.9 $2,177.8 $2,534.9 Current Price: $19.31 Rating: SP
Gross Profit $422.3 $284.2 $400.6 $453.0 Price Target: $23.00
EBITDA $296.3 $188.7 $300.0 $343.0 12-18 Mo Return: 19.1%
EBIT $119.4 $10.4 $144.9 $178.0 Price Target Represents: 2009A 2010E 2011E
EBT $102.1 ($64.8) $132.2 $162.8 P/E: nmf 16.0x 13.1x
Minority Interest ($1.8) ($0.7) ($0.5) $0.0 Enterprise Value: $1,735 $1,772 $1,771
Net Income $71.9 ($46.9) $93.5 $115.6 EV/EBITDA: 9.2x 5.9x 5.2x
FD EPS, (Ex. Unusuals) $1.05 $0.02 $1.44 $1.75 EV/Sales: 1.0x 0.8x 0.7x
FD S/O 66.8 65.0 65.0 66.0 P/BV: 1.9x 1.7x 1.6x
FCF Yield: 11.2% -1.3% 2.6%
Cash Flow 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Chart: Sales, EBITDA & EBITDA margin
Operating cash flow $258.8 $298.2 $222.1 $268.8 $2,
Capex ($181.8) ($130.7) ($241.6) ($230.0) $2,
750 16%
$2,
500
Changes in working capital ($9.5) $127.6 ($47.5) ($21.8) 15%
$2,
250
Free Cash Flow2 $77.0 $167.5 ($19.5) $38.8 $1,
000 14%
$1,
750 13%
FCF per Share $1.15 $2.57 ($0.30) $0.59 $1,
500
Balance Sheet 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E $1, 12%
250
000 11%
Cash $83.5 $98.0 $0.0 $0.0 $75
$50
0 10%
Total debt $473.5 $337.0 $275.5 $252.2 $25
0 9%
Equity $878.3 $807.6 $865.8 $965.9 0
$0 8%
Net debt (Cash) $390.0 $239.0 $275.5 $252.2
2004A
2005A
2006A
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010E
2011E
71
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in US dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Magna International Inc. is a leading global supplier of
interior, exterior, vehicle body, powertrain and fuel CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
systems. The company also performs vehicle its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
engineering, assembly and testing. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.magnaint.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Willemse, CFA David Galison
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7285 1 (416) 956-3548
[email protected] [email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010
Magna 10.3x 4.9x 9.5x 4.3x Magna designs, develops and manufactures automotive systems, modules and
components, and engineers and assembles complete vehicles. Magna
Canadian Auto Suppliers 13.0x 5.5x 10.0x 4.5x
operates 247 manufacturing operations and 86 product development,
U.S. Auto Suppliers 12.4x 5.9x 10.0x 4.8x engineering and sales centres in 25 countries. The significant decline in
Combined North American Peers 12.9x 5.8x 10.0x 4.8x production volumes in 2009 has resulted in Magna becoming a leaner
Magna operator, particularly through an increased focus on efficiencies. As a result,
Historical Price To Forward Earnings 11.2x Magna should benefit from significant operating leverage to the rebound in light
vehicle production in 2010.
Historical EV/TTM EBITDA 4.1x
Magna Guidance
Operating Performance 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E - 2010 sales are expected to be $22-$23 bln
Return on Equity 4.6% -5.0% 11.2% 12.5% - 2010 North American light vehicle production is expected to be 11.5 mln
- European light vehicle production guidance increased to 12.0 mln
Return on Capital Employed 3.8% -4.7% 11.9% 12.5%
- North American CPV of $955-$985
EBITDA Margin 5.9% 3.1% 8.3% 8.8% - EU CPV of $520-$545
Operating Margin 2.2% -1.1% 5.3% 5.9% - Complete vehicle sales of $1.8-2.1 bln
Pre-tax Margin 1.4% -2.2% 5.3% 6.1% - Capex at $750-$800 mln.
Net Margin 1.6% -2.2% 4.1% 4.5%
Cash Flow 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Chart: Sales, EBITDA & EBITDA margin
Operating cash flow $1,054.0 $527.0 $1,570.5 $1,661.7
Capex ($739.0) ($629.0) ($772.0) ($775.0) $30,000 12%
Changes in working capital ($265.0) ($94.0) ($114.4) ($151.5)
Free Cash Flow2 $315.0 ($102.0) $798.5 $886.7 $25,000 10%
1
Calculated as CFO divided by Net Income. Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin
2
Calculated as CFO less Capex
Source: WardsAuto, Bloomberg, Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
73
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
EBITDA ($ mlns.)
EBITDA
2009A $627.3
2010E $591.3
2011E $584.4
EV/EBITDA
2009A 4.4x
2010E 4.7x
2011E 4.7x Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
MTS Inc. is the incumbent telecommunications provider
in Manitoba and offers voice, data, video and wireless CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
services. MTS also owns MTS Allstream, Canada's its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
largest alternative telecom carrier. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.mtsallstream.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Bek, CFA Michael Lee, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7454 1 (416) 594-7907 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
[email protected] [email protected]
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Tony Rizzi
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7299
[email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
MTS Looks To Move Forward After Dividend Cut - September 17, 2010
Manitoba Telecom - 4.4x 4.7x 4.7x MTS is a leading national communications provider in Canada, offering wireline voice,
BCE Inc. (excl. Aliant) - 5.8x 5.6x 5.5x broadband internet and data, video, and wireless services to consumer markets. The
company also owns an Enterprise Solutions division, operating under the Allstream brand,
TELUS Corp. - 6.0x 5.7x 5.5x
targeting the national business and wholesale markets.
U.S. ILECs - 5.5x 5.5x 5.5x
Manitoba Telecom - 10.5x 14.1x 15.9x MTS is one of the best performing wireline players in North America. Its residential wireline
BCE Inc. (excl. Aliant) - 13.1x 11.7x 11.5x losses remain at a very reasonable ~5.0%-6.0% y/y, compared with Bell at ~7.0%-8.0% y/y
TELUS Corp. - 13.7x 13.0x 12.4x and its U.S. ILEC peers at ~11%-12% y/y.
U.S. ILEC Peers - 13.9x 13.8x 13.3x
Offsetting some of consumers' strength, however, is MTS' above average exposure to the
Key Financial Metrics 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Enterprise segment (Allstream) which is under pressure. Should economic conditions
worsen, Allstream may see further contraction going forward.
Free Cash Flow Yield - 16.9% 11.4% 12.2%
Payout Ratio - 61.7% 83.0% 64.1% MTS faces material LT secular challenges (ongoing cable competition and wireless
Capital Intensity - 16.1% 18.9% 16.2% substitution). The company has recently cut their dividend with funds to be used to
Net Debt / EBITDA - 1.5x 1.7x 1.6x accelerate fibre-to-the-home deployment in Manitoba (investing $125 million over the next 5
years).
Effective Tax Rate - 41.5% 33.1% 32.5%
Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Chart 1: Revenues By Segment (2010E)
Free Cash Flow 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Key Operating Statistics (Last Reported Qtr.)
Q2/09 Q2/10 y/y Growth
EBITDA - 627.3 591.3 584.4 Wireline ('000):
Less: Residential Lines 367.6 347.5 -5.5%
Capex - 295.2 335.0 285.0 Business Lines 234.5 229.3 -2.2%
Cash Interest - 59.5 71.2 72.5 Hish-Speed Internet Subs 179.0 184.5 3.1%
MTS TV Subs 83.7 89.5 7.0%
Wireless ('000):
Operating Free Cash Flow (FCF)1 - 272.6 183.7 197.0
Total Subs 446.3 469.7 5.3%
Operating FCF Per Share - 4.21 2.84 3.04
Total Net Adds 8.0 10.2 NM
Blended ARPU $55.61 $56.06 0.8%
Note:
1. Operating FCF = EBITDA – PPE – Interest.
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
75
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Manulife Financial Corporation is a leading Canadian-
based financial services group and one of the largest life CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
insurance companies in the world. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.manulife.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
[email protected] [email protected]
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
[email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Financial Markets Dominate Near-term Valuation Discussion - September 17, 2010
Operating Performance Years Ending Segmented Earnings (Before Preferred Dividends) - For Years Ending
Q4-08 Q4-09 Q4-10E Q4-11E 100%
Core EPS - Fully Diluted ($) 0.33 0.81 0.08 1.75
Annual EPS growth 143% (90%) nmf 80%
1,319
Core ROE 2.0% 5.0% 0.6% 11.0% 60%
Payout Ratio 300.6% 96.6% 618.5% 29.7% 178
1,738 686
40% 344
Book Value Per Share (BVPS) ($) 16.48 15.59 15.44 16.67 779
379
2,186 175
Embedded Value Per Share ($) 28.68 23.20 n/a n/a 20%
656 386 924
745
0%
Capital Years Ending Quarter Ending (388)
(1,441) (423)
Q4-08 Q4-09 Q2-10 -20% (922)
(2,087) (419)
Available Capital 19,437 26,784 $25,500 -40% (328)
Q4-08 Q4-09 Q4-10E Q4-11E
Required Capital 8,293 11,167 $11,526
C anada U .S. Insuranc e U. S. Wealth Asia & Japan Reinsuranc e Corporate
MCCSR Ratio 234% 240% 221%
Source of Earnings Years Ending Forward P/E Multiple* Relative To The Peer Group
Q4-08 Q4-09 Q4-10E Q4-11E 350%
Expected Profit - In-Force Business 3,220 3,731 3,286 3,494 9-y ear Av erage Relativ e P/E = 111% Current Relative P/E = 329%
Impact of New Business (326) (424) (562) (520) 300%
Experience Gains (Losses) (3,351) (1,977) (3,246) 775
250%
Changes in Assumptions 500 (1,593) 74 -
Earnings on Surplus 562 4 405 476 200%
Other (8) 89 1 -
150%
Income before Taxes 597 (170) (42) 4,225
Income Taxes (80) 1,572 274 (1,056) 100%
Net Income 517 1,402 232 3,169
50%
Less: Preferred Share Dividends (30) (64) (80) (80)
Sep-01
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-02
Sep-05
Sep-08
Net I ncome to Common Shareholders 487 1,338 152 3,089
Sep-03
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-08
Sep-10
Sep-02
Sep-04
Sep-07
Sep-09
77
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
National Bank of Canada provides comprehensive
financial services to its individual and corporate CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
customers. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.nbc.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
[email protected] [email protected]
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
[email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Below-average Risk Profile Confirmed Through The Downturn - September 17, 2010
National Bank
All Figures in $ millions, except per share data (excl. one-time items)
KEY MULTI PLES F2009A F2010E F2011E OUR THESIS
P/E Multiple 10.6x 11.0x 10.5x Falling PCL's will be a major driver of earnings recovery for the Canadian banks over the next couple
Peer average 12.7x 11.5x of years; a catalyst to which NA is proportionately less exposed. In addition, we believe the bank's
growth profile is more limited relative to some of its peers. The shares currently trade at a discount,
Q3-10
which we view as justified at this time. NA is rated Sector Performer.
P/BVPS 1.9x
Peer average 2.1x
OPERATING PERFORMANCE F2009A F2010E F2011E SEGMENTED EARNINGS CONTRIBUTION
Core cash EPS $6.32 $6.09 $6.38
125%
Annual EPS growth 15.6% (3.6%) 4.7%
Core cash ROE 20.1% 17.5% 16.5% 100%
Efficiency ratio 59.3% 60.7% 60.5% 39% 36% 36%
48%
Operating leverage (YoY) (1.4% ) (1.2%) 2.6% 75%
19% 10%
CREDIT METRICS F2009A F2010E F2011E 18%
11%
(1) 50%
Loan loss rate 0.31% 0.23% 0.18%
54% 59%
F2009A Q3-10 25% 51% 47%
Gross impaired loans 407 379
Specific ACLs 58 203 0% -9%
Total ACLs 514 655 -7% -6% -5%
(2) -25%
Classical Coverage ratio 126% 173%
Specific ACLs to GILs 14% 54% F2007A F2008A F2009A Q3-10
General ACLs as % of Gross Loans & BAs 0.78% 0.72% Personal & Commercial Banking Wealth Management Financial Markets Other
KEY EARNI NGS DRIVERS F2009A F2010E F2011E FORWARD P/E MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP (based on consensus estimates)
Core net interest income 1,410 1,511 1,583
% change (12.1%) 7.1% 4.8% 110%
(3) 10-y ear Av erage Relativ e F w d P/E: 8 8% Cu rrent Relati v e Fw d P/E : 87%
Total capital markets related revenue 1,259 1,064 1,091
100%
% change 31.3% (15.5%) 2.5%
Provision for credit losses 179 138 111 90%
% change 53% (23%) (20%)
Non-interest expenses 2,652 2,697 2,732 80%
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Tangible common equity to RWA 7.2% 9.2% 10.2%
Tangible common equity to tangible assets 3.2% 3.3% 3.5% Current Relativ e P/ E 6-month Mov ing Av erage
Plus 1 S tandard De v iation Minus 1 standard De v iation
Risk Weighted Assets 58,607 51,788 53,359
LOAN BOOK F2009A F2010E F2011E P/BVPS MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP
Residential mortgages 14,958 15,900 16,383
110%
Personal and credit cards 18,290 20,164 20,776 10-y ear Av erage R elativ e P/B = 82% C urrent R elativ e P/B = 86%
Business and government 19,389 20,649 20,653 100%
Net Loans 52,637 56,713 57,812 90%
Acceptances 5,733 6,044 6,289
Total Net Loans & Acceptances 58,370 62,757 64,101 80%
70%
60%
N otes :
50%
(1) PC Ls as a % of av erage net loans and acceptances (ex cl. repos ).
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-00
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-06
Sep-08
Sep-10
79
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
12- To 18-Month Price Target: $12.5 David Galison, MBA 416-956-3548 [email protected]
81
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
2009 $1.40
2010 $1.40
2011 $1.40
Payout Ratio
2009 68%
2010 62%
2011 53% Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Power Financial is a holding company with major
interests in Great-West Life, IGM Financial and Pargesa. CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
PWF is 66.3% owned by Power Corp. (POW). its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.powerfinancial.com/ Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Holden, CFA Kevin Cheng, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-8417 1 (416) 956-6676
[email protected] [email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Strong Franchises, But Limited Growth At Present - September 17, 2010
16 5%
+1 std.
14 0%
Av erage +1 std.
12 -5%
Av erage
10 -10%
6 -20%
4 -25%
Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
83
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Quebecor Inc.
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Launches Wireless For Next Leg Of Growth
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $41.00
QBR.B-TSX (9/13/10) $35.79 Quebecor is one of Canada's leading diversified media companies, with
Key Indices: Toronto interests in cable and telecommunication operations (Videotron), newspaper
publishing (Sun Media) and French-language private broadcasting (TVA).
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM
52-week Range $21.61-$37.90
Shares Outstanding 64.9M Quebecor continues to be driven by strength at Videotron, as net adds track
Float 46.7M Shrs solidly across the board (digital, Internet and telephony). Sun Media results
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 98,059 are starting to improve as a result of aggressive cost-cutting, which is
Market Capitalization $2,322.8M expected to continue. The big focus in the story remains Videotron.
Dividend/Div Yield $0.20 / 0.6%
Fiscal Year Ends December As growth in the core cable business starts to slow, Videotron will rely on its
Book Value $20.28 per Shr recently launched wireless service. We believe that wireless has a high
2010 ROE (E) 25.8% potential for success, due largely to aggressive plans, a powerful cable
Net Debt $3,940.4M
bundling platform and French content, offered exclusively to customers.
Preferred Nil
Common Equity $1,316.3M
Convertible Available No Quebecor continues to have reasonably solid results despite slowing growth
across the industry. From a growth perspective, Videotron remains among
Earnings Per Share Current the best-performing cable operators in North America. With that, coupled
2009 $3.68A with a strong wireless offering, we rate Quebecor SO.
2010 $3.70E
2011 $3.58E
P/E
2009 9.7x
2010 9.7x Stock Price Performance
2011 10.0x
EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009A $1,276.6
2010E $1,306.9
2011E $1,288.5
EV/EBITDA
2009A 5.9x
2010E 5.8x
2011E 5.9x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Quebecor Inc. is majority owner of Quebecor Media,
which operates cable TV (Videotron), newspaper CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
publishing (Sun Media), Internet (Netgraphe, nurun), its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
and broadcasting (TVA) operations in Canada. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.quebecor.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Bek, CFA Michael Lee, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7454 1 (416) 594-7907 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
[email protected] [email protected]
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Tony Rizzi
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7299
[email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Launches Wireless For Next Leg Of Growth - September 17, 2010
Quebecor Inc. - 5.9x 5.8x 5.9x Quebecor Inc. is a holding company with a 54.7% interest in Quebecor Media Inc., a
Cdn Cable Peers - 7.2x 6.6x 6.3x diverse media company which primary assets include Videotron (cable company),
U.S. Cable Peers - 6.6x 6.4x 6.1x Sun Media (newspaper publisher), and TVA Group (TV broadcaster).
Quebecor Inc. - 9.7x 9.7x 10.0x Since introducing cable telephony in 2005, Videotron has been among the top
Cdn Cable Peers - 16.8x 15.2x 13.7x performing cablecos in North America, exhibiting solid financial and operational
gains. Due to its strong bundling platform, we believe Videotron is poised for further
U.S. Cable Peers - 19.8x 17.7x 11.9x
growth.
Key Financial Metrics 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E We have a positive bias towards Quebecor's wireless recent wireless launch in
Q3/2010. The company offers both low end wireless and family share offerings, both
a natural extension to its highly sucessful bundling strategy.
Free Cash Flow Yield 12.6% 17.9% 8.9% 9.0%
Payout Ratio 16.9% 12.9% 25.9% 25.6% With Quebecor World out of the picture, we believe the strength of the remaining
Consolidated Capex Intensity 14.5% 16.0% 17.6% 16.0% assets should come to the forefront. Even after the recent recovery, valuation
Net Debt / EBITDA 3.8x 3.1x 3.0x 2.9x remains cheap and we are bullish on the LT prospects for Videotron, which is key to
the story.
Tax Rate NM 22.2% 27.1% 27.0%
Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Chart 1: Revenues & EBITDA By Segment (2010E)
100%
Revenue 3,730.1 3,781.0 4,001.4 4,247.0 9.7% 5.4%
10.8% 16.2% 2.4%
OpEx 2,609.1 2,504.4 2,694.5 2,958.5
75%
EBITDA 1,121.0 1,276.6 1,306.9 1,288.5 25.7%
Depreciation & Amortization 320.0 344.7 367.5 380.0 50%
EBIT 801.0 932.0 939.4 908.5 76.0%
Interest Expense 299.1 259.0 281.3 277.4 25% 53.8%
EBT (206.1) 689.5 633.1 631.2
Tax Expense (Recovery) 139.9 153.2 171.5 170.4 0%
Revenues EBITDA
Net Income 187.3 276.1 228.0 232.6 Cable Newspapers Broadcasting Other
Adj. FD EPS 3.18 3.68 3.70 3.58
Free Cash Flow 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Key Operating Statistics (Last Reported Qtr., in '000 )
85
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009A $4,415.0
2010E $4,707.0
2011E $4,988.6
EV/EBITDA
2009A 7.1x
2010E 6.6x
2011E 6.3x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Rogers Communications Inc. owns the largest wireless
operator and cable operator in Canada. The company CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
also has an extensive portfolio of media assets, and its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
owns the Toronto Blue Jays of MLB. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.rogers.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Bek, CFA Michael Lee, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7454 1 (416) 594-7907 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
[email protected] [email protected]
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Tony Rizzi
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7299
[email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Rogers Continues To Be Well Positioned With Strong Exposure To Wireless - September 17, 2010
Rogers Communications - 7.1x 6.6x 6.3x Rogers is a diversified Canadian communications company, engaged in wireless
Shaw Communications - 8.9x 7.8x 7.4x voice and data services, as well as a provider of cable television services, internet
Comcast - 5.8x 5.4x 5.3x broadband and telephony products. Rogers also has a broad portfolio of media
assets (radio, TV and publishing) and owns the Toronto Blue Jays MLB franchise.
Time Warner Cable - 6.3x 5.9x 5.7x
Rogers Communications - 15.1x 12.7x 11.8x While there remains concern over the effects of industry pricing pressure on wireless
Shaw Communications - 18.1x 17.6x 15.4x ARPU, we believe the prospects of attracting higher value subs will continue to drive
strong data adoption capable of moderating the effect of voice erosion, leading to
Comcast - 14.6x 14.7x 12.8x
improving ARPU trends in future quarters.
Time Warner Cable - 16.6x 16.3x 13.4x
Given the heightened focus on cost efficiencies and margin expansion, we expect
Key Financial Metrics 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E both free cash flow and dividends to grow at a healthy clip, and with the
implementation of a sizeable share buyback program, we believe Rogers will
continue to deliver strong value to its shareholders.
Free Cash Flow Yield 6.8% 8.5% 9.1% 10.5%
Payout Ratio 38.3% 38.9% 38.1% 35.6% With current concerns over competition and AWS entrant risks overblown, RCI
shares are trading at a material discount to our NAV, providing an attractive entry
Consolidated Capex Intensity 17.8% 15.8% 14.7% 13.8%
point for investors looking to benefit from RCI's strong growth potential for both
Net Debt / EBITDA 2.1x 2.1x 2.0x 1.7x
wireless and cable assets.
Tax Rate 29.7% 25.4% 28.2% 30.0%
Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Chart 1: Revenues & EBITDA By Segment (2010E)
100%
11.9% 3.8%
Revenue 11,335.0 11,731.0 12,325.7 12,874.0
OpEx 9,035.0 9,046.0 9,292.8 9,635.4 28.7%
75% 32.3%
EBITDA 4,060.0 4,415.0 4,707.0 4,988.6
Depreciation & Amortization 1,760.0 1,730.0 1,674.0 1,750.0 50%
EBIT 2,300.0 2,685.0 3,033.0 3,238.6
67.6%
Interest Expense 575.0 647.0 676.3 670.7 25% 55.8%
EBT 1,426.0 1,980.0 2,331.7 2,567.9
Tax Expense (Recovery) 424.0 502.0 656.7 770.4 0%
Revenues EBITDA
Net Income 1,002.0 1,478.0 1,674.9 1,797.5
Wireless Cable Media
Adj. FD EPS 1.98 2.48 2.95 3.19
Free Cash Flow 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Key Operating Statistics (Last Reported Qtr.)
Q2/09 Q2/10 y/y Growth
EBITDA 4,060.0 4,415.0 4,707.0 4,988.6 Wireless ('000):
Less: Total Subs 8,156.0 8,626.0 5.8%
Capex 2,021.0 1,855.0 1,807.0 1,775.6 Postpaid Net Adds 148.0 98.0 -33.8%
Postpaid ARPU $73.24 $73.54 0.4%
Cash Taxes 3.0 104.0 282.9 311.2
Postpaid Churn 1.00% 1.06%
Cash Interest 575.0 647.0 676.3 670.7 Data % of Network Revenues 20.5% 26.7%
Cable ('000):
Operating Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1,461.0 1,809.0 1,940.8 2,231.1 Basic Subs 2,292.0 2,296.0 0.2%
Operating FCF Per Share 2.29 2.91 3.36 3.86 Digital Subs 1,593.0 1,701.0 6.8%
Internet Subs 1,578.0 1,634.0 3.5%
Telephony Subs 878.0 975.0 11.0%
Total RGUs 6,506.0 6,703.0 3.0%
87
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
RONA Inc.
Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Soft Housing Market Limits Upside
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $15.00
RON-TSX (9/13/10) $12.78 RONA is Canada's largest home improvement warehouse, with a network of
Key Indices: S&P/TSX 60 almost 700 stores in a variety of formats, sizes and markets. It has
generated over $6.0 billion in retail sales over the last year, though
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM continues to be challenged by a cautious consumer and slow housing sector.
52-week Range $12.65-$17.73
Shares Outstanding 131.8M
Float 131.8M Shrs We remain cautious on the outlook for the home improvement sector, and
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 375,900 in turn, RONA. With construction activity slowing, housing prices showing
Market Capitalization $1,684.4M weakness, and consumer confidence declining, the trends for big-ticket
Dividend/Div Yield Nil / Nil spending are clearly negative for the near term.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $14.28 per Shr The HIW segment remains highly competitive despite the slowing housing
2010 ROE (E) 8.9% market. Lowe's plans to nearly double its store base this year, while Home
Net Debt $320.6M
Depot has become more promotional on big-ticket items. RONA is well
Preferred Nil
situated as the destination for independents looking for increased stability.
Common Equity $1,882.4M
Convertible Available No
Within the context of a weak macro environment, and in the midst of a
Earnings Per Share Current three-year run of challenged sales results, we believe that RONA needs to
2009 $1.18A deliver a period of steady and sustained SSS growth in order to improve its
2010 $1.27E multiple. Until that time, we believe upside in the valuation is limited.
2011 $1.39E
P/E
2009 10.8x
2010 10.1x Stock Price Performance
2011 9.2x
FD EPS excluding unusual items.
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
RONA Inc. is a leading retailer and distributor of home
improvement and gardening products in Canada, CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
generating more than $6 billion of retail sales over the its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
last 12 months. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.rona.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Mark Petrie, CFA Perry Caicco
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3278 1 (416) 594-7279
[email protected] [email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Soft Housing Market Limits Upside - September 17, 2010
Total Segment Sales 5,860.4 6,136.6 6,323.9 1,778.5 1,869.1 1,733.8 SSS Growth
15%
Corp & Fran Stores 3,540.2 3,704.7 3,821.7 1,067.6 1,113.7 1,040.1
10%
Distribution 1,139.1 1,183.4 1,218.2 330.6 365.2 329.8
Net Sales 4,679.3 4,888.1 5,039.9 1,398.2 1,478.9 1,369.9 5%
0%
Gross Profit 1,391.6 1,464.1 1,515.6 423.1 441.6 408.4 -5%
% of Sales 29.74% 29.95% 30.07% 30.26% 29.86% 29.81% -10%
SG&A 906.7 944.2 963.9 252.0 253.7 241.7
Q 07
Q 07
Q 07
Q 07
Q 08
Q 08
Q 08
Q 08
Q 09
Q 09
Q 09
Q 09
Q 10
10
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
% of Sales 19.38% 19.32% 19.12% 18.02% 17.15% 17.64%
1/
2/
3/
4/
1/
2/
3/
4/
1/
2/
3/
4/
1/
2/
Q
EBITDA 345.5 375.8 404.6 134.5 150.5 131.1 Change in EBITDA% (Y/Y)
% of Sales 7.38% 7.69% 8.03% 9.62% 10.18% 9.57%
1.50%
1.00%
D&A 103.2 107.9 110.9 29.2 26.7 26.6 0.50%
Interest Expense 23.5 22.4 23.3 5.4 5.8 5.7 0.00%
Tax Expense 66.6 72.9 81.1 29.3 35.4 30.0 -0.50%
-1.00%
Minority Interest 5.3 6.7 6.7 2.8 2.2 2.2
-1.50%
Net Earnings 146.9 165.9 182.5 67.8 80.4 66.5 -2.00%
Q 07
Q 07
Q 07
Q 07
Q 08
Q 08
Q 08
Q 08
Q 09
Q 09
Q 09
Q 09
Q 10
10
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
1/
2/
3/
4/
1/
2/
3/
4/
1/
2/
3/
4/
1/
2/
Q
89
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Royal Bank of Canada, Canada's largest financial
institution, provides diversified financial services in North CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
America. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.royalbank.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
[email protected] [email protected]
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
[email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Volatile Trading Revenue Has Been A Dominant Theme - September 17, 2010
Royal Bank
All Figures in $ millions, except per share data (excl. one-time items)
KEY MULTI PLES F2009A F2010E F2011E OUR THESIS
P/E Multiple 12.4x 14.3x 12.4x While RY is well positioned to benefit from a recovering environment that would generate falling loan
Peer average 12.7x 11.5x losses and better revenue growth, the uncertain outlook combined with very high volatility in the trading
line tempers our enthusiasm in the near term. We believe that a more positive investment stance
Q3-10
requires greater confidence in the bank's earnings potential than is possible in what remains an
P/BVPS 2.3x
unsettled capital markets environment. We rate RY as a Sector Performer at this time.
Peer average 2.1x
OPERATING PERFORMANCE F2009A F2010E F2011E SEGMENTED EARNINGS CONTRIBUTION
Core cash EPS $4.40 $3.81 $4.40
125%
Annual EPS growth 2.1% (13.3%) 15.3% 7% 4%
4% 3%
Core cash ROE 20.6% 16.5% 17.6% 100% 16%
Efficiency ratio 47.4% 48.6% 46.4% 27% 28% 38% 14%
Operating leverage (YoY) 7.1% (6.6%) 3.5% 75% 12%
14% 12%
5% 8% 1% 9%
CREDIT METRICS F2009A F2010E F2011E 50% 7% 8%
(1) 60%
Loan loss rate 0.95% 0.62% 0.46% 25% 43% 48% 42%
F2009A Q3-10
0%
Gross impaired loans 5,457 5,020 -5% -6%
Specific ACLs 1,279 1,194 -25%
Total ACLs 3,302 3,179 F2007A F2008A F2009A Q3-10
(2)
Classical Coverage ratio 61% 63%
Specific ACLs to GILs 23% 24% Canadian Banking Insurance International Banking
General ACLs as % of Gross Loans & BAs 0.69% 0.66% Wealth Management Capital Markets Corporate Support
KEY EARNI NGS DRIVERS F2009A F2010E F2011E FORWARD P/E MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP (based on consensus estimates)
Core net interest income 9,253 9,501 9,843
130%
% change 10.6% 2.7% 3.6% 10-y ear Av erage Relativ e Fw d P/E: 108% Current Relativ e Fw d P/E: 109%
(3)
Total capital markets related revenue 8,794 5,374 5,391 120%
% change 56.8% (38.9%) 0.3%
Provision for credit losses 2,785 1,827 1,405
110%
% change 92% (34%) (23%)
Non-interest expenses 14,906 13,983 14,060
100%
% change 11.0% (6.2%) 0.6%
CAPI TAL MEASURES F2009A F2010E F2011E 90%
Tier 1 capital ratio 13.0% 13.0% 13.4%
Sep-00
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-01
Sep-06
Tangible common equity to RWA 8.9% 9.2% 10.1%
Tangible common equity to tangible assets 3.4% 3.5% 3.8% Current Relativ e P/E 6-month Mov ing Av erage
Risk Weighted Assets 244,837 261,354 271,966 Plus 1 Standard Dev iation Minus 1 standard Dev iation
LOAN BOOK F2009A F2010E F2011E P/BVPS MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP
Residential mortgages 122,130 129,358 134,610 160%
Personal 74,393 81,985 85,314 1 0-y ear A v er age Rela tiv e P/B = 11 9% Cu rren t Rel ativ e P/B = 1 11%
150%
Credit cards 8,701 9,134 9,505
Wholesale 78,927 74,430 77,452 140%
100%
N otes :
90%
(1) PC Ls as a % of av erage net loans and acceptances (ex cl. repos ).
Sep-01
Sep-03
Sep-05
Sep-10
Sep-00
Sep-02
Sep-04
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
91
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
EV/EBITDA
2009A NMF
2010E 8.9x
2011E 8.0x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Russel Metals is one of the largest metals distribution
and processing companies in North America, conducting CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
business in three segments: service centers, energy its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
sector pipe and import/export. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.russelmetals.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Willemse, CFA David Galison
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7285 1 (416) 956-3548
[email protected] [email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010
12- To 18-Month Price Target: $18 David Galison, MBA 416-956-3548 [email protected]
Sales $3,366.2 $1,971.8 $2,045.4 $2,262.2 All figures are per short ton
Gross Profit $787.1 $322.9 $399.4 $441.6 Metals Service Centre Data August m/m y/y
EBITDA $383.3 ($69.4) $144.8 $161.3 *US Finished Steel Inventory 7.47 3.5% 30.5%
EBIT $359.9 ($95.1) $119.4 $135.1 Months' Shipments on hand 2.61x 16.2% 14.0%
EBT $344.9 ($150.4) $95.7 $111.8 **Avg Daily Shipment Rate 136.5 -6.7% 20.0%
Net Income $228.8 ($92.0) $67.3 $75.4 *U.S. Service Centre Shipments 2.87 -10.9% 14.5%
FD EPS, (Ex. Unusuals) $3.69 ($0.94) $1.10 $1.26 *Million Tons ** Tons
FD S/O 62.7 59.9 59.8 59.9 Valuation & Outlook
Cash Flow 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Current Price: $20.51 Rating: SU
Operating cash flow $56.1 $291.1 $53.1 $90.0 Price Target: $18.00 Dividend: $1.00
Capex ($22.1) ($20.9) ($10.7) ($20.0) 12-18 Mo Return: -12.2% Div Yield: 4.9%
Changes in working capital ($201.5) $335.5 ($43.8) ($11.7) Price Target Represents: 2009A 2010E 2011E
Free Cash Flow2 $34.0 $270.2 # $42.4 $70.0 P/E: nmf 16.3x 14.3x
FCF per Share $0.54 $4.51 $0.71 $1.17 Enterprise Value: $1,072 $1,124 $1,116
Balance Sheet 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E EV/EBITDA: nmf 7.8x 6.9x
Cash $44.9 $359.6 $301.3 $311.6 EV/Sales: 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x
Total debt $283.8 $353.7 $348.6 $348.6 P/BV: 1.4x 1.3x 1.3x
Equity $980.1 $793.2 $803.1 $818.8 FCF Yield: 25.1% 3.9% 6.5%
Net debt (Cash) $238.9 ($5.9) $47.3 $37.0 Chart: Sales, EBITDA & EBITDA margin
Net debt/TCE 19.6% -0.7% 5.6% 4.3%
20%
Net debt/EBITDA 0.6x 0.1x 0.3x 0.2x
$2,700 15%
EBITDA MGN %
Tubular 5%
$700
Products 0%
33%
Metals ($300) -5%
Steel
2003A
2004A
2005A
2006A
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010E
2011E
Service
Distributors
Centers
11%
Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin
Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, Steelbenchmarker, AMM, Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
93
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. is Canada's largest engineering
and construction services company, and invests actively CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
in infrastructure concessions. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.snc-lavalin.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Paul Lechem Stephanie Price, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-6429 1 (416) 594-7047
[email protected] [email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010
$blns
20%
4
10%
3 0%
Income Statement F2009A F2010E F2011E 2 -10%
Sales 6101.7 6247.2 7134.7 1 -20%
Growth (y/y) -14.1% 2.4% 14.2% 0 -30%
Gross Profit 1151.1 1239.2 1284.3
F1 98
F2 01
F2 02
F2 04
F2 05
F 2 08
9
F1 97
F2 9
F2 00
F2 3
F2 6
F2 07
00
99
00
00
9
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Operating Expenses 545.6 578.6 599.0
F1
06
09
10
08
08
09
0
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
F2
F2
F
3-
1-
3-
1-
3-
1-
3-
1-
Q
95
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Sun Life Financial Inc. is a major Canadian-based
financial services company that manufactures and CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
distributes insurance and wealth management products its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
in Canada, the U.S. and Asia. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.sunlife.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
[email protected] [email protected]
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
[email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Macroeconomic & Market Environment Remain Challenging - September 17, 2010
Source of Earnings Years Ending Forward P/E Multiple* Relative To The Peer Group
Q4-08 Q4-09 Q4-10E Q4-11E
130%
Expected Profit - In-Force Business 1,828 2,009 1,897 2,031
9-y ear Av erage Relativ e P/E = 95% Current Relativ e P/E = 53%
Impact of New Business (321) (380) (341) (339) 120%
Experience Gains (Losses) (2,271) (630) (278) 80 110%
Changes in Assumptions (288) (1,164) 77 70 100%
Earnings on Surplus 402 260 391 406
90%
Other - - - -
Income before Taxes (650) 95 1,746 2,249 80%
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Net I ncome to Common Shareholders 785 534 1,426 1,682
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-08
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-10
97
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
99
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Toronto-Dominion Bank
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Strong Retail Franchises Well Positioned For Slower
Sector Weighting:
Growing Environment
Overweight
12-18 mo. Price Target $81.00
TD-TSX (9/13/10) $75.95 TD is the second-largest Canadian bank by market cap. with assets of $603
Key Indices: TSXFinSv billion as at Q3/F10. Over the last 12 months, TD derived 52% of its adjusted
earnings from Canadian P&C, 11% from Wealth Mgmt., 17% from U.S. P&C,
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 10.0% and 20% from Wholesale (not including a $428 million loss from corporate).
52-week Range $61.17-$77.37
Shares Outstanding 874.1M
Float 874.1M Shrs Stronger credit quality was a noteworthy positive for TD in Q3/F10 as all
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 2,121,000 three segments saw improvements. We expect the pace of these
Market Capitalization $66,387.9M improvements to slow, but nevertheless anticipate that falling loan losses
Dividend/Div Yield $2.44 / 3.2% will be a positive in both Canada and the U.S. in F2011.
Fiscal Year Ends October
Book Value $43.41 per Shr With both Canadian and U.S. P&C banking posting double-digit q/q earnings
2010 ROE (E) 14.1% growth in Q3/F10, TD's retail franchise is performing well on both sides of
LT Debt $12,384.0M
the border, which positions it well relative to its peers in what is likely to
Preferred $3,395.00M
continue to be a slow growth environment.
Common Equity $37,941.0M
Convertible Available No
On a forward P/E basis, TD trades at a 3% premium relative to peers
Earnings Per Share Current compared with a 1% historical premium. On a P/B basis, TD currently
2009 $5.50A trades at a 20% discount to its peers, compared with its 10-year average
2010 $5.87E discount of only 4%. We rate TD Sector Outperformer.
2011 $6.41E
P/E
2009 13.8x
2010 12.9x Stock Price Performance
2011 11.8x
Cash EPS excluding one-time items.
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
TD Bank is one of Canada's leading financial institutions,
and offers a full array of financial products and services CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
to over 18 million customers worldwide. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.tdbank.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
[email protected] [email protected]
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Meny Grauman, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 956-3723
[email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Strong Retail Franchises Well Positioned For Slower Growing Environment - September 17, 2010
TD Bank
All Figures in $ millions, except per share data (excl. one-time items)
KEY MULTI PLES F2009A F2010E F2011E OUR THESIS
P/E Multiple 13.3x 12.9x 11.9x Our positive bias on this name has been based on our belief that the combination of its strong personal
Peer average 12.7x 11.5x and commercial banking businesses – on both sides of the border – should position it well relative to its
peers in a slower growing environment. Results in the most recent quarter supports our thesis with both
Q3-10
Canadian and U.S. P&C banking posting double-digit q/q earnings growth. We rate TD Bank Sector
P/BVPS 1.7x
Outperformer.
Peer average 2.1x
OPERATING PERFORMANCE F2009A F2010E F2011E SEGMENTED EARNINGS CONTRIBUTION
Core cash EPS $5.50 $5.87 $6.41
120%
Annual EPS growth 1.5% 6.6% 9.2%
Core cash ROE 13.7% 14.0% 14.1% 20%
100% 9% 19% 21%
Efficiency ratio 61.1% 59.8% 59.7% 14%
20% 11%
Operating leverage (YoY) 9.3% (0.6%) 0.6% 80% 23%
14%
18%
18%
CREDIT METRICS F2009A F2010E F2011E 60% 12%
(1)
Loan loss rate 0.83% 0.61% 0.44%
40%
64%
F2009A Q3-10 54% 57% 51%
20%
Gross impaired loans 2,311 3,337
Specific ACLs 558 624 0%
-1% -8% -14%
Total ACLs 2,639 2,579 -6%
Classical Coverage ratio
(2)
114% 77% -20%
Specific ACLs to GILs 24% 19% F2007A F2008A F2009A Q3-10
General ACLs as % of Gross Loans & BAs 0.78% 0.72% Canadian P&C Banking Wealth Management Wholesale Banking U.S. P&C Banking Corporate
KEY EARNI NGS DRIVERS F2009A F2010E F2011E FORWARD P/E MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP (based on consensus estimates)
Core net interest income 10,254 10,729 11,412 150%
% change 23.6% 4.6% 6.4% 10-y ear Av erage R elativ e F w d P/E: 101% Current Relati v e F w d P/E: 103%
(3)
Total capital markets related revenue 3,833 3,189 2,934 130%
% change 88.2% (16.8%) (8.0%)
Provision for credit losses 2,016 1,611 1,220 110%
% change 93% (20%) (24%)
Non-interest expenses 11,669 11,791 11,999
90%
% change 18.3% 1.0% 1.8%
CAPI TAL MEASURES F2009A F2010E F2011E 70%
Tier 1 capital ratio 11.3% 12.2% 13.4%
Sep-00
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Tangible common equity to RWA 9.4% 11.4% 12.4%
Tangible common equity to tangible assets 3.3% 3.7% 3.9% C urrent R elativ e P/E 6-month Mov ing Av erage
Plus 1 Standard Dev iation M inus 1 s tandard Dev iation
Risk Weighted Assets 189,585 191,082 198,841
LOAN BOOK F2009A F2010E F2011E P/BVPS MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP
Residential mortgages 65,665 68,276 71,048
160%
Personal and credit cards 102,509 108,837 113,256 10-y ear Av erage Relativ e P/B = 96% Current Relativ e P/B = 80%
Business and government 87,322 86,397 89,906 140%
Gross Loans 255,496 263,510 274,210
Acceptances 9,946 7,813 8,293 120%
Total Gross Loans & Acceptances 265,442 271,323 282,503
100%
80%
N otes :
(1) PC Ls as a % of av erage net loans and acceptances (ex cl. repos ). 60%
Sep-00
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-08
101
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Torstar Corporation
Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Outlook Mixed, But Cost-cutting Continues To Drive
Sector Weighting:
Profitability
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $14.00
TS.B-TSX (9/13/10) $12.61 Torstar is a Canadian-based media company that owns four daily and 100
Key Indices: Toronto community newspapers, is a leading global book publisher of the Harlequin
franchise and owns a diverse platform of digital properties. The company
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM recently divested its 20% interest in CTVglobemedia.
52-week Range $5.92-$12.77
Shares Outstanding 79.0M
Float 53.5M Shrs Given persistent cyclical and structural pressures for print newspapers, we
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. NM remain cautious on Torstar's publishing assets. While we have seen a
Market Capitalization $996.1M modest ad recovery in the recent quarter, forward tone remains cautiously
Dividend/Div Yield $0.37 / 2.9% optimistic, and cost efforts remain the primary driver of profitability.
Fiscal Year Ends December
Book Value $8.80 per Shr Harlequin continues to remain on strong footing, providing a solid source of
2010 ROE (E) 15.6% revenue to balance the print group's more cyclical reliance on advertising
Net Debt $480.1M
markets. Despite a possible negative impact from foreign exchange, the
Preferred Nil
outlook for Harlequin continues to look stable for H2/10.
Common Equity $694.9M
Convertible Available No
While we have likely seen the bottom in ad trends, the recovery is mixed
Earnings Per Share Current across the board. That said, management's focus on cost-cutting efforts
2009 $1.10A and a continued effort to reduce leverage should continue to show gains for
2010 $1.19E the second half of the year. We rate Torstar Sector Performer.
2011 $1.44E
P/E
2009 11.5x
2010 10.6x Stock Price Performance
2011 8.8x
EBITDA ($ mlns.)
Current
2009A $191.8
2010E $236.8
2011E $241.8
EV/EBITDA
2009A 7.7x
2010E 6.3x
2011E 6.1x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Torstar Corp. is a broadly based Canadian media
company that owns Canada's largest daily newspaper, CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
as well as other daily and community papers. It also its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
owns Harlequin Enterprises, a book publisher. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.torstar.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Bek, CFA Tony Rizzi investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7454 1 (416) 594-7299 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
[email protected] [email protected]
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Lee, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7907
[email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Outlook Mixed, But Cost-cutting Continues To Drive Profitability - September 17, 2010
Torstar Corp. - 7.7x 6.3x 6.1x Torstar is a broad based Media company primarily involved in publishing of daily and
Gannett Inc. - 5.3x 4.6x 4.6x community newspapers. Its assets include the Toronto Star (Canada's largest daily)
McClatchy Co. - 5.5x 5.2x 5.2x and over 100 community newspapers, recently divesting its stake in CTVglobemedia.
Torstar Corp. - 11.5x 10.6x 8.8x Torstar continues to face difficult revenue trends, despite the modest improvement in
Gannett Inc. - 7.3x 5.8x 5.8x the ad markets. Given persistent cyclical and structural pressures for print newspapers,
McClatchy Co. - 4.7x 5.8x 4.9x our outlook for Torstar's publishing assets remains somewhat cautious this year.
Key Financial Metrics 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E While Harlequin remains on solid footing, it will not be enough to offset continuing
pressures on newspaper revenues, even with aggressive cost savings.
Free Cash Flow Yield 17.0% 16.2% 17.3% 19.9%
Payout Ratio 42.8% 22.6% 21.0% 18.3% That said, we believe downside risks have eased as newspaper valuations have
Net Debt / EBITDA 3.0x 2.7x 1.8x 1.2x bounced off the bottom. While challenges still remain, cost savings and stronger ad
Tax Rate NM 33.6% 35.6% 35.0% fundamentals in 2010 offer potential for further upside, in our opinion.
Income Statement 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E Chart 1: Revenues & EBITDA By Segment (2010E)
100%
Revenue 1,536.0 1,451.3 1,460.8 1,484.5
OpEx 1,326.0 1,259.5 1,224.1 1,242.7 32.4% 35.2%
75%
EBITDA 210.1 191.8 236.8 241.8
Depreciation & Amortization 55.5 52.8 49.0 50.0 31.6% 24.8%
50%
EBIT 67.1 70.7 150.6 168.7
Interest Expense 28.2 21.0 24.0 23.1 25%
EBT (158.3) 53.6 147.7 176.2 36.0% 40.0%
Free Cash Flow 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E Key Segment Operating Results (Last Reported Qtr.)
103
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Investment Thesis
Key Multiples 2009 2010E 2011E
1. Excess capacity in Canadian market - Airline carriers expanding into
Transat P/E 14.4x 17.9x 10.4x
packaged tour market is resulting in excess capacity in the Canadian market and
Peer P/E 16.4x 15.8x 12.4x
adding negative pressure on pricing.
Transat EV/EBITDA 4.2x 3.9x 2.8x
2. Cost cutting strategy - Transat is reducing its cost structure through 1)
Peer EV/EBITDA 7.0x 5.2x 4.5x
migrating to a single model fleet; 2) new carrier agreement with CanJet will yield
~$30 million in saving; 3) lowering input costs by leveraging its scale.
Transat P/CF 4.2x 3.9x 2.8x
Peer P/CF 14.8x 7.4x 5.7x
3. Growing its network - Expansion opportunities in Mexico, Spain, Italy and
South America.
Operating Ratios 2009 2010E 2011E
Operating Margin 2.6% 2.9% 3.8%
4. Will US travel demand for sun destinations return to normalized
Return On Equity 9.2% 7.3% 10.7%
levels?
Current Ratio 1.06 1.05 1.15
Quick Ratio 1.04 1.03 1.13
5. Strengthing C$ - Positive for Canadian outbound travel.
LT Debt To Total Capitalization 22.6% 1.5% 1.3%
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Revenue Growth ($ Million)
$0
Cash Flow 2009 2010E 2011E
CFPS 3.23 2.38 3.60 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
FCFPS 2.19 1.62 2.03
Revenue Breakdown (F2009)
Balance Sheet Q3/F10
Cash + ST Investments 217,278 United Kingdom Other
Current Assets 797,717 6% 2%
PP&E 96,754
France
Total Assets 1,250,807
22%
Current Liabilities 792,483
LT Debt 6,899
Canada
Total Liabilities 866,906
70%
Shareholders' Equity 383,901
105
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Transcontinental Inc.
Stock Rating:
Sector Performer
Post-recession Cost Structure Bodes Well For
Sector Weighting:
Improving Tone
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $16.00
TCL.A-TSX (9/13/10) $13.75 Transcontinental is the largest printer in Canada and Mexico and the fourth-
Key Indices: Toronto largest in North America. The company is also a leading publisher of
consumer magazines, the largest publisher of community newspapers in
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM Quebec and operates a digital platform of more than 120 websites.
52-week Range $10.77-$15.25
Shares Outstanding 80.8M
Float 68.1M Shrs TCL has made significant rationalization efforts during the downturn, and
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. NM has continued to prune businesses that are not part of its core focus. As
Market Capitalization $1,111.0M such, positive top-line growth will flow through nicely to the all-important
Dividend/Div Yield $0.36 / 2.6% EBITDA line as TCL's leaner cost base will support a material boost.
Fiscal Year Ends October
Book Value $14.96 per Shr TCL's balance sheet continues to improve, with debt to EBITDA hovering at
2010 ROE (E) 12.9% 1.85x, below the company's 2.0x-2.5x target, allowing sufficient capacity to
LT Debt $478.5M
make acquisitions. We expect strategic investments in coming quarters in
Preferred Nil
digital businesses, which continue to offer longer-term growth opportunities.
Common Equity $1,209.0M
Convertible Available No
Transcontinental has shown solid performance in recent quarters. We
Earnings Per Share Current believe it will continue to benefit from new contracts, a lower cost base, and
2009 $1.61A improved operating leverage as core print revenues recover. As such, the
2010 $1.80E thesis remains a continued execution story. We rate TCL Sector Performer.
2011 $1.93E
P/E
2009 8.5x
2010 7.6x Stock Price Performance
2011 7.1x
EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009A $338.9
2010E $384.4
2011E $405.3
EV/EBITDA
2009A 5.4x
2010E 4.7x
2011E 4.5x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Transcontinental is Canada's leading printer of flyers,
direct marketing products, newspapers, books and CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
magazines. The company is also a leading publisher of its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
consumer magazines and weekly newspapers. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.transcontinental.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Bek, CFA Tony Rizzi investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7454 1 (416) 594-7299 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
[email protected] [email protected]
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Michael Lee, CFA
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7907
[email protected] end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Post-recession Cost Structure Bodes Well For Improving Tone - September 17, 2010
Transcontinental Inc. -- 5.4x 4.7x 4.5x Transcontinental (TCL) is a provider of printing, publishing, and marketing services. TCL is
R.R. Donnelley & Sons Co. -- 4.8x 5.0x 4.6x the largest printer in Canada and Mexico, and is the 4th largest in North America. It is also
NA Printer Peers -- 6.3x 5.2x 4.8x Canada's leadnig publisher of magazines, second-largest community newspaper
. .. . . publisher, and operates a digital platform with over 120 websites.
Transcontinental Inc. -- 8.5x 7.6x 7.1x We continue to expect stabilizing printing fundamentals and improving ad markets to lead
R.R. Donnelley & Sons Co. -- 10.5x 10.1x 8.9x to improvment in revenues. The segments most likely to benefit from the recovery are
Magazine Publishing and Commercial Printing.
NA Printer Peers -- 12.7x 10.8x 11.4x
. .. . .
The accelerated rationalization efforts and ramp-up of new contract contributions should
Key Financial Metrics 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E contribute significantly to improve profitability in the remainder of F2010 and into F2011.
Free Cash Flow Yield 1.7% 0.0% 15.6% 16.7% Given TCL's diversified revenue base, aggressive cost management capabilities, and
Payout Ratio 140.6% NM 17.2% 16.5% experienced management team, TCL is well positioned to benefit materially from a
sustainable turnaround in the economy.
Net Debt / EBITDA 2.0x 2.3x 1.7x 1.3x
Tax Rate 131.9% NM 23.7% 26.0%
Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Chart 1: Revenues & EBITDA By Segment (2010E)
EBITDA (w/ Corp. Exp.) 361.5 338.9 384.4 405.3 Outsourcing Contract
Less: - 15-yr contract with Hearst Corp. to print San Francisco Chronicle
Capex 273.1 241.9 135.5 145.0 - Deal is worth US$1 billion (excl. newsprint costs)
Cash Taxes 35.2 41.0 42.5 44.6 - Total investment of US$230MM, and is fully protected by Hearst Corp.
Cash Interest 35.2 41.0 40.8 38.3 - Capacity utilization is ~40% with the base contract alone
Globe & Mail Contract
Operating Free Cash Flow (FCF) 18.0 (0.4) 165.5 177.4 - 18-yr contract to print the Globe & Mail until 2028 in a deal worth ~$1.7 billion
Operating FCF Per Share 0.22 (0.00) 2.05 2.20 - Production will begin in 2010 with the results impacting 2011 revenue
- Expected to generate $95MM per year of which $25MM will be new revenue
- Investment of $175MM with synergies from combining retail and newspaper platfrom
Other Contracts
- Rogers 6-yr contract worth $210MM to print magazines starting in 2009
- Rogers 6-yr contract worth $150MM to print marketing products starting in 2009
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
107
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
P/BVPS
2007 0.8x
2008 0.6x
2009 0.5x Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Western Financial Group Inc. is the largest property &
casualty brokerage in Western Canada. The company CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
also provides banking, life insurance and travel services. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.westernfinancialgroup.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
CIBC World Markets Inc. See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7000 end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Company Profile - September 17, 2010
109
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Jun-00
Jan-03
Sep-05
Aug-06
Jun-07
Feb-10
Jul-99
Apr-01
Dec-03
Oct-04
Mar-02
Mar-09
May-08
Key Multiples 2009 2010E 2011E
WestJet P/E 16.8x 14.3x 10.7x
Peer P/E 24.1x 12.7x 9.6x Company Description
WestJet EV/EBITDA 4.5x 4.4x 3.7x WestJet, a discount carrier airline, was founded in 1996 and has grown from a
Peer EV/EBITDA 8.7x 7.6x 6.2x western Canadian regional carrier with three aircrafts flying to five cities to one of
Canada’s main low-fare airlines, offering scheduled service to 68 destinations in
WestJet P/CF 5.3x 6.3x 5.7x
Canada, the United States, Mexico and the Caribbean, with its fleet of 88 Boeing
Peer P/CF 7.7x 9.2x 7.8x
Next-Generation 737-series aircraft.
Operating Ratios 2009 2010E 2011E
Operating Margin 9.2% 8.7% 10.2% Investment Thesis
Return On Equity 7.1% 8.2% 10.6% 1. Expanding its network - WestJet is focused on expanding its network
Current Ratio 1.48 1.55 1.32 through code sharing and interline agreements.
Quick Ratio 1.37 1.45 1.21
LT Debt To Total Capitalization 43.1% 39.8% 36.3% 2. Cost containment - WestJet has a more favourable cost structure compared
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% to many legacy airlines (i.e. non-unionized work force, no large underfunded
Income Statement 2009 2010E 2011E pension, single model fleet). Key for WestJet is to continue to maintain its cost
Sales 2,281 2,575 2,831 advantage.
EBITDA From Operations 352 359 432
Earnings From Operations 98 118 162 3. Going after higher yielding customers - WestJet is focused on capturing
FD EPS From Operations 0.71 0.84 1.12 increase share of the business travel market having recently introduced its own
Cash Flow 2009 2010E 2011E loyalty program.
CFPS 2.26 1.91 2.09
FCFPS 1.15 1.33 0.47 4. Culture / profit sharing - Does "culture" work in a flat share price
environment?
Balance Sheet Q2/10
Cash + ST Investments 1,077
Management
Current Assets 1,162
Gregg Saretsky - President & CEO
PP&E 2,285
Vito Culmone - VP Finance & CFO
Total Assets 3,518
Bob Cummings - EVP, Marketing & Sales
Current Liabilities 796
Hugh Dunleavy - EVP Strategy
LT Debt 1,008
Ferio Pugliese - EVP People & Culture
Total Liabilities 2,109
Shareholders' Equity 1,409
5 0
Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
2005 2008 2011E
Operating Profit/ASM (cents) RASM (cents - LHS) Yield (LHS) ASM (RHS)
CASM (cents - LHS)
111
Institutional Equity Research
Company Update
Yellow Pages Income Fund - 6.1x 6.2x 6.1x Yellow Pages is the incumbent publisher of print (with over 340 books) and online
PagesJaunes - 8.6x 8.6x 8.4x phone directories in Canada, capturing more than 90% market share. Yellow Pages also
Other International Directory Peers - 6.4x 6.7x 7.0x operates 137 independent print directories in the United States.
Yellow Pages Income Fund - 13.3x 6.6x 7.3x Directories continue to post solid, yet modest growth, reflecting market dominance and
PagesJaunes - 8.7x 9.4x 9.1x online gains. While material NT pressures remain (given large urban market pressures),
modest growth should be sustainable in the longer term.
Other International Directory Peers - 2.3x 4.4x 4.5x
Traders has shown improvement, but continues to struggle. Given the segments
Key Financial Metrics 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E exposure to auto (~70%) and real estate (~17%), we expect the segment to slowly
rebound. Consolidated online revenues remains a key long-term component for YLO,
Distributable Cash Flow Yield 26.6% 25.3% 25.0% 22.1% and growth remains robust.
Payout Ratio 79.9% 66.1% 57.2% 52.5% While many global peers are facing pressures, our YPG thesis is intact, and we remain
Net Debt (w/ Prefs) / EBITDA 3.4x 3.1x 3.3x 3.0x confident in the future stability and modest growth of the franchise.
Income Statement 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E Chart 1: Revenues & EBITDA By Segment (2010E)
100%
Revenue 1,696.7 1,639.9 1,654.8 1,673.5 10.4%
18.9%
OpEx
75%
EBITDA 932.7 893.4 882.9 900.1
Depreciation & Amortization 186.1 142.4 205.0 210.0
50%
EBIT 746.6 751.0 677.9 690.1 89.6%
81.1%
Interest Expense 142.3 114.6 125.3 131.1 25%
EBT 563.4 281.1 524.8 559.0
Tax Expense (Recovery) 30.7 42.7 65.6 156.5 0%
Revenues EBITDA
Net Income 509.2 204.3 423.6 366.0 Directories Trader
Adj. FD EPU 0.97 0.40 0.81 0.73
Distributable Cash Flow 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E Key Operating Statistics
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
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Important Disclosure Footnotes for Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Covered
by CIBC World Markets Inc.:
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Important Disclosure Footnotes for Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Covered
by CIBC World Markets Inc.: (Continued)
Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Not Covered by CIBC World Markets Inc.:
Important disclosure footnotes that correspond to the footnotes in this table may be found in the "Key to
Important Disclosure Footnotes" section of this report.
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*Although the investment recommendations within the three-tiered, relative stock rating system utilized by CIBC World Markets Inc.
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