POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 14TH NOVEMBER 2018, 6 AM EST

Canada - National UltraPoll

14th November 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results With 20 years of political experience in all
of a survey conducted between October three levels of government, President and CEO
30th to November 7th, 2018 among a sample Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
of 7961 adults, 18 years of age or older, living international public affairs.
in Canada. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
landlines and cellular phones. The survey is snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
intended to represent the voting population a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
of Canada. was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a Liberal majority government in the 2015
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
Research and was not sponsored by a third predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
party. elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
The sampling frame was derived from both a member of the World Association for Public
a national telephone directory compiled Opinion Research and meets international and
by Mainstreet Research from various Canadian publication standards.
commerically available sources and random
digit dialing. The part of the survey that CONTACT INFORMATION
dialed from the directory was conducted as a In Ottawa:
stratified dial of the ten Canadian provinces. Quito Maggi, President
In the case of random digit dials, respondents [email protected]
were asked the additional question of what
region of the country they resided in. In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 1.09% [email protected]
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
Find us online at:
(full methodology appears at the end of this www.mainstreetresearch.ca
report) twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
TRUDEAU LIBERALS WOULD WIN BIG MAJORITY IF ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY

14 November 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – The governing Liberals are on track to win a substantially large
majority if an election were held today.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial
polls. The poll surveyed 7961 Canadians between October 30th and November 7th. The poll has a
margin of error of +/- 1.09% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“If things stay the way they are now, Justin Trudeau could secure a majority without winning a
seat west of Ontario”, said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “The Liberals
are narrowly ahead in British Columbia, but they are over 40% in Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic
provinces.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 39.3% support (-0.1%
since our last poll in July), while the Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer have 34.6% (-2.3%). The
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh have 10.8% support (-1%), while the Greens with Elizabeth May at the
helm have 6.8% (-0.2%). The Bloc Quebecois have 3.4% (+1%) overall, but have 14.4% in Quebec. The
People’s Party led by Maxime Bernier have 3.8%.

“The Conservative vote is inefficient so Scheer will end up piling big wins in Alberta, Saskatchewan,
and Manitoba”, continued Maggi. “Beyond this, the Liberals have over a twelve point among women
and voters under 35, as well as a six point lead among voters older than 65.”

“It will be tough for Andrew Scheer to win when Justin Trudeau has a big lead among the largest age
cohort, and the age bracket most likely to vote.”

The poll also asked whether Canadians were optimistic or pessimistic about their personal finances
and the Canadian economy in general. The survey found that 59% of respondents were optimistic
about the Canadian economy, with 20.3% being very optimistic.

There were similar findings regarding Canadians’ sentiment about personal finances. 62.6% were
optimistic about their personal finances for the rest of the year, with nearly 25% being very optimistic.

“These numbers point to why Trudeau is doing well,” concluded Maggi. “If Canadians generally feel
good about the economy and their personal finances, then they likely will not be willing to change
the government.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - [email protected]
 3.5%

If the federalAll
election
Voters were held today, which party
34.9%
would you
5.7%
vote for?
3%
11%
All Voters
1.2%
9.1% 3.5%

34.9%
5.7%

3%

All Voters
31.6%

9.1%

Liberals Conservatives New Democratic Party Bloc Quebecois

Greens People's Party Another Party Undecided

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
31.6%

11%
1.5%
3.8%
Liberals 1.2%Conservatives New Democratic Party Bloc Quebecois
6.8%
3.5%
Greens People's Party Another Party Undecided
3.4% 34.9%
5.7%
Decided and Leaning Voters
3% 39.3%
10.8%
All Voters
1.5%
3.8%
9.1% 6.8%Decided and Leaning Voters

3.4%

39.3%
10.8%

31.6%
Decided and Leaning Voters
34.6%

Liberals Conservatives New Democratic Party Bloc Quebecois

LiberalsGreensConservatives
People's PartyNew Democratic
Another Party
Party Undecided
Bloc Quebecois

Greens People's Party Another Party

If the federal election were held today, which party would
you vote for?
(regional breakouts)

39.3%
34.6%
10.8%
3.4%
All

6.8%
3.8%
1.5%

34.5%
33.1%
British Columbia

14.7%

12.5%
4.0%
1.3%

20.0%
61.9%
7.8%
Alberta

4.9%
4.3%
1.1%

29.4%
47.5%
12.5%
Prairies

5.9%
3.9%
0.8%

45.5%
34.8%
9.7%
Ontario

5.3%
3.3%
1.4%

41.4%
19.6%
12.1%
Quebec

14.4%
6.2%
4.1%
2.2%

47.9%
29.7%
Atlantic Canada

8.1%

9.4%
3.9%
1.1%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Liberals Conservatives NDP Bloc Quebecois Greens People's Party Another Party
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the economy for the
rest of the year?
breakout by party support and region

Total 20.3% 38.7% 22.7% 11.4%

BC 18.3% 37.7% 24.6% 12.6%

AB 17.3% 48.1% 15.0% 15.1%

Regions

Prairies 14.1% 32.0% 24.7% 20.6% 8.6%

ON 23.7% 35.4% 24.3% 9.6%

QC 19.0% 42.5% 22.9% 8.9%

Atlantic 20.1% 36.8% 20.9% 12.8% 9.4%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic

Total 20.3% Very Pessimistic

38.7% Not Sure
22.7% 11.4%

Liberals 37.3% 43.8% 10.9%

Conservatives 8.0% 36.6% 31.6% 18.7%

Party Support

Total 20.3% 38.7% 22.7% 11.4%

NDP 13.8% 41.6% 29.4%

Liberals 37.3% 43.8% 10.9%

11.2% 42.1%
BlocConservatives 8.0% 36.6% 31.6% 23.0% 18.7% 17.0%

NDP 13.8% 41.6% 29.4%

Green 12.7% 31.7% 30.8% 16.7% 8.1%
Bloc 11.2% 42.1% 23.0% 17.0%

People's Party 23.3%

Green 12.7% 31.7% 23.3% 30.8% 31.0% 16.7% 8.1% 15.7%

People's Party 23.3% 23.3% 31.0% 15.7%

Another Party 17.4% 28.6% 19.2% 17.5% 17.4%
Another Party 17.4% 28.6% 19.2% 17.5% 17.4%

Undecided 11.7% 27.1% 30.7% 8.2% 22.3%

Undecided 11.7% 27.1% 30.7% 8.2% 22.3%

0 10 0 20
10 2030 30 40
40 50 60
50 6070 70
80 90 80100 90 100
Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic
Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic
Very Pessimistic Not Sure
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about your personal finances
for the rest of the year?
breakout by party support and region

Total 24.6% 38.0% 19.8% 11.4%

BC 23.9% 41.1% 19.4% 10.1%

AB 20.3% 32.1% 24.0% 17.7%

Regions

Prairies 22.2% 34.4% 23.0% 13.6%

ON 27.7% 37.7% 17.4% 11.0%

QC 22.5% 40.9% 21.6% 9.1%

Atlantic 25.2% 37.3% 18.7% 11.2% 7.6%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic

Total 24.6% Very 38.0%

Pessimistic Not Sure
19.8% 11.4%

Liberals 34.8% 40.4% 14.0%

Conservatives 17.8% 36.0% 26.1% 14.4%

Party Support

Total 20.3% 38.7% 22.7% 11.4%

NDP 19.9% 41.0% 22.2% 12.3%

Liberals 37.3% 43.8% 10.9%

18.1%
BlocConservatives 43.1%
8.0% 36.6% 31.6% 22.5%
18.7% 14.4%

NDP 13.8% 41.6% 29.4%

Green 19.7% 36.7% 18.2% 20.0%
Bloc 11.2% 42.1% 23.0% 17.0%

People's Party 16.9%

Green 12.7%36.7%
31.7% 30.8% 19.2% 16.7% 22.8%
8.1%

People's Party 23.3% 23.3% 31.0% 15.7%

Another Party 22.7% 22.3% 19.2% 14.2% 21.5%
Another Party 17.4% 28.6% 19.2% 17.5% 17.4%

Undecided 18.5% 29.0% 17.7% 15.6% 19.2%

Undecided 11.7% 27.1% 30.7% 8.2% 22.3%

0 10 0 20
10 2030 30 40
40 50 60
50 6070 70
80 90 80100 90 100
Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic
Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic
Very Pessimistic Not Sure
Breakout Tables
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 34.9% 33.4% 36.4% 32% 32.6% 36.1% 40.1% 31.1% 18.5% 24.6% 40.9% 36.5% 40.6%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 31.6% 37% 26.2% 23.4% 32.6% 35.8% 35.9% 30% 57.7% 41.7% 32.4% 17.5% 25.5%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 9.1% 7.6% 10.6% 14.8% 9.3% 5.6% 5.8% 12.7% 7.1% 10% 7.9% 10.5% 6.7%
Bloc led by Mario Beaulieu 3% 3.2% 2.9% 3.9% 3% 2.8% 2.2% - - - - 13.1% -
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 5.7% 5.2% 6.2% 7.8% 5.6% 5% 4% 11.4% 3.2% 4.6% 4.8% 5.1% 7.3%
People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 3.5% 4.4% 2.5% 3.8% 5.1% 2.9% 1.7% 3.7% 4% 3.4% 3% 3.8% 3.3%
Another Party 1.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.8% 2.1% 1.3% 0.3% 1.1% 1% 0.7% 0.9% 1.9% 0.9%
Undecided 11% 7.6% 14.4% 13.6% 9.8% 10.4% 9.9% 10.1% 8.6% 15% 10.1% 11.7% 15.7%
Unweighted Frequency 7961 4398 3563 1389 1875 2408 2289 963 896 1514 1229 896 2463
Weighted Frequency 7961 3942 4019 2214 1994 2193 1561 1085 900 519 3052 1859 546

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 37.6% 35.2% 39.9% 36.6% 34.4% 37.8% 42.8% 33.2% 19.5% 27.5% 43.8% 39.6% 43.8%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 33.2% 38.3% 28.3% 25.2% 34.1% 38% 36.8% 31.9% 60.6% 44.7% 33.6% 18.8% 27.3%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 10.3% 8.5% 12.2% 16.6% 10.5% 6.8% 6.2% 14.1% 7.6% 11.7% 9.3% 11.6% 7.4%
Bloc led by Mario Beaulieu 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 4% 3.2% 3% 2.4% - - - - 13.8% -
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 6.5% 5.7% 7.3% 8.6% 6.4% 5.5% 5% 12% 4.8% 5.5% 5.1% 5.9% 8.6%
People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 3.6% 4.6% 2.6% 4.1% 5.1% 2.9% 2% 3.8% 4.2% 3.7% 3.2% 4% 3.6%
Another Party 1.4% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% 2.3% 1.5% 0.4% 1.2% 1.1% 0.8% 1.3% 2.1% 1%
Undecided 4.1% 2.9% 5.3% 3.7% 4% 4.4% 4.4% 3.8% 2.3% 6.1% 3.7% 4.2% 8.3%
Unweighted Frequency 7961 4398 3563 1389 1875 2408 2289 963 896 1514 1229 896 2463
Weighted Frequency 7961 3942 4019 2214 1994 2193 1561 1085 900 519 3052 1859 546

(decided and leaning voters)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 39.3% 36.3% 42.2% 38% 35.9% 39.7% 44.8% 34.5% 20% 29.4% 45.5% 41.4% 47.9%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 34.6% 39.3% 29.9% 26% 35.5% 39.6% 38.4% 33.1% 61.9% 47.5% 34.8% 19.6% 29.7%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 10.8% 8.7% 12.8% 17.3% 10.9% 7.2% 6.5% 14.7% 7.8% 12.5% 9.7% 12.1% 8.1%
Bloc led by Mario Beaulieu 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 4.2% 3.3% 3.2% 2.5% - - - - 14.4% -
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 6.8% 5.8% 7.7% 8.9% 6.7% 5.7% 5.3% 12.5% 4.9% 5.9% 5.3% 6.2% 9.4%
People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 3.8% 4.8% 2.7% 4.2% 5.3% 3% 2.1% 4% 4.3% 3.9% 3.3% 4.1% 3.9%
Another Party 1.5% 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 2.4% 1.5% 0.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 1.4% 2.2% 1.1%
Unweighted Frequency 7531 4215 3316 1322 1789 2270 2150 928 876 1424 1186 859 2258
Weighted Frequency 7531 3729 3802 2094 1886 2074 1447 1026 852 491 2887 1759 517
 Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the economy
for the rest of the year?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Very Optimistic 20.3% 20.6% 19.9% 20.1% 18.8% 21.4% 20.8% 18.3% 17.3% 14.1% 23.7% 19% 20.1%
Somewhat Optimistic 38.7% 38.7% 38.7% 35.4% 40% 38.2% 42.4% 37.7% 48.1% 32% 35.4% 42.5% 36.8%
Somewhat Pessimistic 22.7% 21.3% 24.2% 23% 22.6% 24% 20.9% 24.6% 15% 24.7% 24.3% 22.9% 20.9%
Very Pessimistic 11.4% 13.6% 9.3% 12.9% 12.4% 11.5% 8% 12.6% 15.1% 20.6% 9.6% 8.9% 12.8%
Not Sure 6.9% 5.8% 8% 8.8% 6.1% 4.9% 8% 6.7% 4.4% 8.6% 7% 6.7% 9.4%
Unweighted Frequency 7961 4398 3563 1389 1875 2408 2289 963 896 1514 1229 896 2463
Weighted Frequency 7961 3942 4019 2214 1994 2193 1561 1085 900 519 3052 1859 546

LPC, CPC, NDP, Bloc, Green, People's Party, Another

All Undecided
Trudeau Scheer Singh Beaulieu May Bernier Party
Very Optimistic 20.3% 37.3% 8% 13.8% 11.2% 12.7% 6.7% 17.4% 11.7%
Somewhat Optimistic 38.7% 43.8% 36.6% 41.6% 42.1% 31.7% 23.3% 28.6% 27.1%
Somewhat
22.7% 10.9% 31.6% 29.4% 23% 30.8% 23.3% 19.2% 30.7%
Pessimistic
Very Pessimistic 11.4% 2.9% 18.7% 7.6% 17% 16.7% 31% 17.5% 8.2%
Not Sure 6.9% 5.1% 5.1% 7.6% 6.8% 8.1% 15.7% 17.4% 22.3%
Unweighted
7961 2879 2937 684 119 536 282 94 430
Frequency
Weighted Frequency 7961 2992 2646 824 256 515 288 112 327

Are you optimistic or pessimistic about your personal finances

for the rest of the year?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Very Optimistic 24.6% 24.5% 24.7% 23.4% 24.2% 24.2% 27.4% 23.9% 20.3% 22.2% 27.7% 22.5% 25.2%
Somewhat Optimistic 38% 39% 37% 36.9% 37.6% 38.9% 38.8% 41.1% 32.1% 34.4% 37.7% 40.9% 37.3%
Somewhat Pessimistic 19.8% 20.5% 19.2% 20.2% 20.1% 20.1% 18.7% 19.4% 24% 23% 17.4% 21.6% 18.7%
Very Pessimistic 11.4% 10.6% 12.2% 12.9% 13.3% 11% 7.3% 10.1% 17.7% 13.6% 11% 9.1% 11.2%
Not Sure 6.2% 5.4% 6.9% 6.7% 4.8% 5.7% 7.7% 5.5% 5.9% 6.8% 6.3% 5.9% 7.6%
Unweighted Frequency 7961 4398 3563 1389 1875 2408 2289 963 896 1514 1229 896 2463
Weighted Frequency 7961 3942 4019 2214 1994 2193 1561 1085 900 519 3052 1859 546

LPC, CPC, NDP, Bloc, Green, People's Party, Another

All Undecided
Trudeau Scheer Singh Beaulieu May Bernier Party
Very Optimistic 24.6% 34.8% 17.8% 19.9% 18.1% 19.7% 16.9% 22.7% 18.5%
Somewhat Optimistic 38% 40.4% 36% 41% 43.1% 36.7% 36.7% 22.3% 29%
Somewhat
19.8% 14% 26.1% 22.2% 22.5% 18.2% 19.2% 19.2% 17.7%
Pessimistic
Very Pessimistic 11.4% 5.1% 14.4% 12.3% 14.4% 20% 22.8% 14.2% 15.6%
Not Sure 6.2% 5.6% 5.7% 4.7% 2% 5.4% 4.4% 21.5% 19.2%
Unweighted
7961 2879 2937 684 119 536 282 94 430
Frequency
Weighted Frequency 7961 2992 2646 824 256 515 288 112 327
Full Questionnaire
If the federal election were held today, about the economy in the coming
which party would you vote for? year?
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Very Optimistic
Trudeau Somewhat Optimistic
Conservative Party of Canada led by Somewhat Pessimistic
Andrew Scheer Very Pessimistic
New Democratic Party of Canada led Not Sure
by Jagmeet Singh
Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth Are you optimistic or pessimistic
May about your personal finances in the
People’s Party of Canada led by coming year?
Maxime Bernier Very Optimistic
Bloc Quebecois led by Mario Beaulieu Somewhat Optimistic
(only given as an option in Quebec) Somewhat Pessimistic
Another Party Very Pessimistic
Undecided Not Sure

And which party are you leaning What is your gender?

towards? (only asked of respondents Male
who were undecided in Q1) Female
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin
Trudeau What is your age group?
Conservative Party of Canada led by 18 to 34 years of age
Andrew Scheer 35 to 49 years of age
New Democratic Party of Canada led 50 to 64 years of age
by Jagmeet Singh 65 years of age or older
Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth
May
People’s Party of Canada led by
Maxime Bernier
Bloc Quebecois led by Mario Beaulieu
(only given as an option in Quebec)
Another Party
Undecided

[Provincial related questions were

asked here - refer to the individual
provincial reports for thsoe questions]

Are you optimistic or pessimistic

Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between October 30th,
2018 and November 7th 2018, among a sample of 7961 adults, 18 years of age or older, living
in Canada. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were
interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population of Canada.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.
The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten
Canadian provinces. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional
question of what region of the country they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 1.09% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 1.47%, Females: +/- 1.64%,
18-34 age group: +/- 2.63%, 35-49 age group: +/- 2.26%, 50-64 age group: +/- 1.99%, 65+
age group: +/- 2.04%, British Columbia: +/- 3.15%, Alberta: +/- 3.27%, Prairies: +/- 2.51%,
Ontario: +/- 2.79%, Quebec: +/- 3.27%, Atlantic Canada: +/- 1.97%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.