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Time Series With Minitab - I Smoothing

This document provides instructions for using Minitab to perform moving average and exponential smoothing time series analysis. It explains how to select the variable and parameters for the analysis, view forecasts for past data, and store the results including moving/smoothed averages and one-period ahead forecasts. The key steps are to select the appropriate analysis from the Time Series menu, choose the variable, number of periods/forecasts, and whether to store the outputs. The results report accuracy measures and forecasts for interpreting the fitted time series models.

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109 views1 page

Time Series With Minitab - I Smoothing

This document provides instructions for using Minitab to perform moving average and exponential smoothing time series analysis. It explains how to select the variable and parameters for the analysis, view forecasts for past data, and store the results including moving/smoothed averages and one-period ahead forecasts. The key steps are to select the appropriate analysis from the Time Series menu, choose the variable, number of periods/forecasts, and whether to store the outputs. The results report accuracy measures and forecasts for interpreting the fitted time series models.

Uploaded by

Anonymous xpxooi
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Time Series with Minitab – I

Smoothing

I. Moving average:
On menu:
Stat>Time Series>Moving Average

Variable – column holding the series


MA length – number of periods to be averaged

“Generate forecasts” - check this and enter


Number of forecasts – 1
Starting from origin – [fill in number of last observation – if you have 20 items, enter 20, if 15 data points, enter 15)

*To see the “forecasts” for the past data (Minitab will call these values “fits”)
Click “Storage”
Select “moving averages” and “Fits(one-period-ahead-forecasts)”

Result (in Session window) gives:


Moving average
Length [tells unumber of periods)
Accuracy measures – We are interested in MSD (text calls it MSE)
Forecast – period (should be next period after data) & forecast. [Don’t worry about upper & lower – that’s an interval
estimate we shall not discuss]

*If you chose to store Fits and Averages – these will appear in columns of the data window – averages in “AVER1” (beside
the last period included in the average) and prediction in “FITS1”. If you do several series calculations, you’ll get
“AVER2”FITS2” “AVER3”FITS3” etc.

*I cannot find a way to do weighted moving average calculations in minitab

II. Exponential Smoothing:


On menu
Stat>Time Series> Single Exp Smoothing

Variable – column holding the series


MA length – number of periods to be averaged

“Generate forecasts” - check this and enter


Number of forecasts – 1
Starting from origin – [fill in number of last observation – if you have 20 items, enter 20, if 15 data points, enter 15)

Click “Options”
“Use average of first K observations, K = “ enter 1
*To see the “forecasts” for the past data (Minitab will call these values “fits”)
Click “Storage”
Select “Smoothed Data” “Fits(one-period-ahead-forecasts)” and

Result (in Session window) gives:


Data – column name
Length – (number of data points)
Smoothing Constant Alpha

Accuracy measures – We are interested in MSD (text calls it MSE)


Forecast – period (should be next period after data) & forecast. [Don’t worry about upper & lower – that’s an interval
estimate we shall not discuss]

*If you chose to store Smoothed data and Fits – these will appear in columns of the data window – averages in “SMOO1”
(beside the period used to calculate) and prediction in “FITS1”. If you do several series calculations, you’ll get
“SMOO2”FITS2” “SMOO”FITS3” etc.

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