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Normal Approximation To The Binomial

The normal approximation to the binomial distribution uses the normal distribution to approximate the binomial distribution when the sample size is large. According to the central limit theorem, the sampling distribution of sample means approximates a normal distribution for large sample sizes. The normal approximation can be used when n*p and n*q are both greater than 5, where n is the sample size, p is the probability of success, and q is 1 - p. Examples are provided to demonstrate how to calculate probabilities using the normal approximation through finding the z-score and looking up the corresponding area in the z-table.

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213 views3 pages

Normal Approximation To The Binomial

The normal approximation to the binomial distribution uses the normal distribution to approximate the binomial distribution when the sample size is large. According to the central limit theorem, the sampling distribution of sample means approximates a normal distribution for large sample sizes. The normal approximation can be used when n*p and n*q are both greater than 5, where n is the sample size, p is the probability of success, and q is 1 - p. Examples are provided to demonstrate how to calculate probabilities using the normal approximation through finding the z-score and looking up the corresponding area in the z-table.

Uploaded by

Gwen Bess N. Cacanindin
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Normal Approximation to the Binomial

The normal approximation to the binomial is when you use a continuous


distribution (the normal distribution) to approximate a discrete distribution (the binomial
distribution). According to the Central Limit Theorem, the the sampling distribution of the
sample means becomes approximately normal if the sample size is large enough.

Normal Approximation to the Binomial: n * p and n * q Explained


The first step into using the normal approximation to the binomial is making sure you have a
“large enough sample”. How large is “large enough”? You figure this out with two calculations:
n * p and n * q

● n is your sample size,


● p is your given probability.
● q is just 1 – p. For example, let’s say your probability p is .6. You would find q by
subtracting this probability from 1: q = 1 – .6 = .4
Percentages (instead of decimals) can make this a little more understandable; if you have a
60% chance of it raining (p) then there’s a 40% probability it won’t rain (q).
When n * p and n * q are greater than 5, you can use the normal approximation to the binomial
to solve a problem.

List of continuity correction factors.

Normal Approximation: Example #1


Continuity Correction Factor Example

If n=20 and p=.25, what is the probability that X ≥8

Normal Approximation: Example#2

Sixty-two percent of 12th graders attend school in a particular urban school district. If a sample
of 500 12th grade children are selected, find the probability that at least 290 are actually
enrolled in school.

Normal Approximation: Example#3

What is the approximate probability of correctly guessing at least 20 questions out of 50, on a
true/false exam?
Normal Approximation: Example#4

Karen is playing a game of chance with a probability of success of 33%. If she plays the game 43
times, what is the probability that she will win more than 19 times?

Example #2 Solution
Part 1: Making the Calculations

Step 1: Find p,q, and n:


● The probability p is given in the question as 62%, or 0.62
● To find q, subtract p from 1: 1 – 0.62 = 0.38
● The sample size n is given in the question as 500

Step 2: Figure out if you can use the normal approximation to the binomial. If n * p and n * q
are greater than 5, then you can use the approximation:
n * p = 310 and n * q = 190.
These are both larger than 5, so you can use the normal approximation to the binomial for this
question.

Step 3: Find the mean, μ by multiplying n and p:


n * p = 310
(You actually figured that out in Step 2!).

Step 4: Multiply step 3 by q :


310 * 0.38 = 117.8.

Step 5: Take the square root of step 4 to get the standard deviation, σ:
√(117.8)=10.85
Note: The formula for the standard deviation for a binomial is √(n*p*q).
Part 2: Using the Continuity Correction Factor

Step 6: Write the problem using correct notation. The question stated that we need to “find the
probability that at least 290 are actually enrolled in school”. So:
P(X ≥ 290)

List of continuity correction factors

Step 7: Rewrite the problem using the continuity correction factor:


P (X ≥ 290-0.5) = P (X ≥ 289.5)
Step 8: Draw a diagram with the mean in the center. Shade the area that corresponds to the
probability you are looking for. We’re looking for X ≥ 289.5, so:

Step 9: Find the z-score.


You can find this by subtracting the mean (μ) from the probability you found in step 7, then
dividing by the standard deviation (σ):
(289.5 – 310) / 10.85 = -1.89
Step 10: Look up the z-value in the z-table:
The area for -1.89 is 0.4706.
Step 11: Add .5 to your answer in step 10 to find the total area pictured:
0.4706 + 0.5 = 0.9706.
That’s it! The probability is .9706, or 97.06%.

Reference:
https://www.statisticshowto.datasciencecentral.com/probability-and-statistics/binomial-
theorem/normal-approximation-to-the-binomial/

https://www.ck12.org/c/probability/normal-approximation-of-the-binomial-
distribution/lesson/Approximating-the-Binomial-Distribution-PST/

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