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Climate Is Here

The document discusses the risks that climate change poses to rice production in the Philippines. Using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's method, the study analyzed precipitation data in the top ten rice producing provinces. The results showed increasing precipitation trends in some provinces that could lead to rice shortages. Climate change is reducing crop yields and making successful harvests more difficult. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are threatening food security in the Philippines by affecting crop farming.

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Charmie Lagdamen
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63 views2 pages

Climate Is Here

The document discusses the risks that climate change poses to rice production in the Philippines. Using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's method, the study analyzed precipitation data in the top ten rice producing provinces. The results showed increasing precipitation trends in some provinces that could lead to rice shortages. Climate change is reducing crop yields and making successful harvests more difficult. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are threatening food security in the Philippines by affecting crop farming.

Uploaded by

Charmie Lagdamen
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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1. Discuss the risk climate change pose for the rice sector.

The table 1 on the results and discussions using Mann-Kendall test for

precipitation data for the top rice provinces shows a continued precipitation or lack

of it has an immediate and long term risk to the rice sector on the ability to grow

rice in the Philippines. This shows that there is an immense impact on the food

security agenda of the Philippines. The Mann Kendall Test further demonstrate

that significant increasing trend was noticeable in the four province of Cagayan,

Nueva Ecija, Camarines Sur, Negros Occidental and North Cotabato. It is

important to note that these trend can cause a rice shortage in the Philippines and

in relation to this there is an inflation on the price of rice that could really affect the

consumers most specially to the households below standard of living.

2. Relate the present rice shortages and the effect of climate change in the Philippines.

Due to Climate change, crop yields are expected to decline by 25% in the

Philippines (Fernandez, 2017). According to Ludovico Gagante, a farmer from the

island province of Guimaras in central Philippines, used to harvest crops three to

four times in a year. The harvest from their one-hectare land is usually more than

enough for his family’s consumption. However, with climate change, one

successful cropping season is even hard to achieve. In other words, climate

change in the Philippines is one of the major cause of rice shortage. To much heat

may result to the proliferation of pests and destroy the crops. If not heat will occur,

there’s also too much rain drowning.


In addition, there is a threat on food security causes by climate change in

the Philippines. Government should ensure availability, stability, accessibility and

affordability of safe and healthy food. Rainfall levels and stability and extreme

temperatures affect crop farming.

3. Discuss the method used in the study.

The study uses performs two methods, the non-parametric Mann Kendall Test that

used to determine the presence of a monotonic increasing or decreasing trend and the

non-parametric Sen’s Method to estimate the slope of a linear trend. The study used

these methods in its basic form. They offer many advantages that were useful in the

analysis of atmospheric data. Missing values in the study are allowed, the data need not

adapt to a normal distribution. In addition, Sen’s method is not significantly affected by a

single data errors or outliers.

In the Mann Kendall Test results shows the precipitation trend on the top 10 rice

producing provinces in the Philippines. This method is fitted to the study because it

evaluates the precipitation trend for the ten (10) provinces that produces rice. MK test

revealed that there is an increasing significant precipitation trend among the provinces of

Cagayan, Camarines Sur, Negros Occidental and North Cotabo that indicates a future

risk to the stated for provinces of rice shortage.

Further, Sen’s Method estimate for the true slope of the linear trend. It shows which

provinces has the significant upward and downward trend as presented on the Figure 1

in the results and discussions of the study.

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