Research
Research
DOI 10.1007/s40622-014-0050-4
RESEARCH PAPER
Abstract Indian stock market was functioning with both return and volatility of Indian stock market.
Accounting Period settlement cycle till December 31, Empirical result reveals that before introduction of
2001. But as per the recommendation of G-30 which T?2 settlement, returns of Monday and Thursday
was a group to determine the best international were negative, while after the introduction of T?2
practices for securities clearing and settlements, settlement, returns of all days are positive. By
Indian stock market has adopted T?2 rolling settle- applying GARCH model, this study concludes that
ment cycle on April 1, 2003. Difference of settlement after the introduction of T?2 settlement, day of the
and clearing cycles of different stock exchanges might week effect exists only in return of Indian stock
lead to the day of the week anomaly. Day anomaly in market, but it does not exist in volatility of Indian
return and volatility of stock market was found to be stock market.
affected by settlement cycle, and it changes over the
period of time. Therefore, present study tries to Keywords Day of the week effect Settlement
investigate the effect of introduction of T?2 settle- cycle GARCH model
ment cycle on day of the week anomaly in return and
volatility of Indian stock market. Study analyzes daily
closing price data of Sensex and Nifty over the period
January 2, 1991 to January 31, 2013 covering 5,763 Introduction
samples. Study computes descriptive statistics of each
week days for both subperiods as well as for complete Indian stock market was functioning with Accounting
sample period. It also applies GARCH (1, 1) model for Period settlement cycle till December 31, 2001. In
investigating the presence of day of the week effect in accounting period settlement method, trades of whole
week were cumulated and settled on one particular day
of next week. However, rolling settlement was
S. A. Patel (&) recommended by G-30 which was a group to deter-
Goa Institute of Management, Sanquelim Campus, mine the best international practices for securities
Poriem, Sattari 403505, Goa, India
e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] clearing and settlements. A majority of developed
world stock markets are operating on rolling settle-
M. Mallikarjun ment basis. In rolling settlement, trades of a particular
Institute of Management, Nirma University, Sarkhej- day are settled independently from the trades of any
Gandhinagar Highway, Ahmedabad 382481, Gujarat,
India other day of week. Furthermore, in case of rolling
e-mail: [email protected] settlement, buyer and seller get their security and
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328 Decision (September 2014) 41(3):327–337
money earlier than accounting period settlement. 2004; Holden et al. 2005). Similarly, change in
Hence, settlement risk is considerably reduced in security settlement cycle from accounting period to
rolling settlement. Initially, Indian stock market has rolling period settlement also affects the day of the
adopted T?5 days rolling settlement cycle. This was week anomaly pattern of stock market (Keef and
further reduced to T?3 and T?2 on April 1, 2002 and McGuinness 2001 for New Zealand; Draper and
April 1, 2003, respectively. Difference of settlement Paudyal 2002 for UK; Chander et al. 2008 for India).
and clearing cycles of different stock exchanges might Hence, the main objective of present study is to
lead to the day of the week anomaly. investigate the effect of introduction of T?2 settle-
Day of the week anomaly means regular pattern in ment cycle on day of the week anomaly in return and
stock market return across all week days (Islam and volatility of Indian stock market. With this back-
Watanapalachaikul 2005). Day of the week anomaly ground, remainder of the paper is organized in the
indicates that average returns and volatility of all days following sections. Second section provides Review
are different from each other. The presence of day of of the Literature. Third section discusses Data and
the week anomaly provides abnormal return on a Methodology. Empirical Analysis is presented in
particular day of the week. The term ‘‘day of the week fourth section. Findings and conclusion of the study
effect’’ in stock market was documented in early are pinpointed in fifth section.
nineties (Fields 1931; Kelly 1930). Testing stock
market seasonality had received considerable atten-
tion in post nineties (French 1980; Gibbons and Hess Review of literature
1981; Lakonishok and Levi 1982; Roll 1983; Lako-
nishok and Smidt 1990; Peiro 1994; Goswami and Previous studies related to day of the week anomaly
Angshuman 2000). Studies which had supported day are classified into two broad categories. First part
of the week effect had provided two contradicting majorly focuses on day of the week effect in return of
views. First, average return of Monday was higher stock market. While second more specifically spot-
than all other week days returns (French 1980). lighting on day of the week effect in both return and
Second, average return of Friday was higher than volatility stock market.
Monday return (Keim and Stambaugh 1984; Agrawal
and Tandon 1994; Mills and Coutts 1995). Further- Day of the week effect in return of stock markets
more, Monday effect was significant only in the last
two weeks of a month (Wang et al. 1997). Even returns US stock market had provided significant negative
on preholidays were significantly higher than week - return on Monday (Mehdian and Perry 2001; Gao and
days return (Arumugam 1998; Chong et al. 2005; Kling 2005; Chiaku 2006), while it had offered higher
McGuinness 2005). return on Friday (Cho et al. 2007). Similarly, Madure-
Later studies have included volatility of stock ira and Leal (2001) found negative Monday return in
market return to the day of the week anomaly. Higher Brazil stock market. Continuation of day of the week
return of a particular day might be a result of higher effect in recent times for US market was opposed by
variance on that particular day. Therefore, day of week Prokop (2010).
effect should be tested for both return and volatility of Day of the week effect was existed in European
the stock market (Ho and Cheung 1994; Choudhry stock markets (Apolinario et al. 2006); Swedish stock
2000). market (Thomas 2002); Istanbul stock exchange
Day of the week effect is a global phenomenon, and (Dicle and Hassan 2007). Weekend effect was existed
this might be the result of spillover effect of developed in UK stock market at the time of bad news, but at the
stock markets (Jaffe and Westerfield 1985; Wong et al. time of good news that effect was vanished (Steeley
1992; Agrawal and Tandon 1994). Seasonality of 2001). Ajayi et al. (2004) found mix evidence for
return and volatility of stock market were found to be Monday effect in European stock markets. Contradict-
change over the period of time (Bhattacharya et al. ing to this, day of the week effect was disappeared
2003; Doyle and Chen 2007). Stock market season- after 1990s from UK stock market (Steeley 2001);
ality was also affected by change in macroeconomic stock market of Germany (Alt et al. 2002; Prokop
variable like GDP and financial crisis (Rosenberg 2010); Turkish stock market (Demirer and Karan
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Decision (September 2014) 41(3):327–337 329
(2002); and Spanish stock market (Gardeazabal and Tan and Wong (1998), Poshakwale and Murinde
Regulez 2004). A majority of European and Asian (2011), Fountas and Segredakis (2002), Alejandro
markets had demonstrated significant negative Mon- (2006), Wickremasinghe (2007), and Tsangarakis
day effect (Tong 2000). The argument that speculators (2007).
close their position on Friday and reopen it on Monday Day of week effect was existed in return of Indian
was denied in the study of Istanbul stock exchange stock market (Kaur 2004; Sarma 2004; Chia and Liew
(Aksoy and Dastan 2011). 2010), while it was rejected by Nageswari et al. (2011).
Day of the week effect was found in South Ascan Before the introduction of rolling settlement, Friday
(Alagidede 2008) and West African stock markets return was lowest, and Monday return was highest
(Tachiwou 2010). Ghana stock market has provided (Kumari and Mahendra 2006), while after introduction
negative return on Monday (Paul and Theodore 2006). of rolling settlement, Friday return was highest, and
Australian companies had provided significant Monday return of Indian stock market was lowest
positive return on Monday (Liu and Li 2010). Day of (Nath and Dalvi 2004; Gupta 2006; Chander et al.
the week effect was found in Australian stock market, 2008; Singhal and Bahure 2009). Similarly, Karmakar
but this effect was becoming insignificant in recent and Chakraborty (2000) found significant positive
years (Worthington 2010). Opposite to this, Marrett return on Friday. On the other hand, Amanulla and
and Worthington (2008) did not find day of the week Thiripalraju (2001) reported that Wednesday return
effect in Australian stock market. was significant. Within Indian stock market indices,
Day of the week anomaly was identified for Asian day of the week effect was found in Sensex and Nifty
stock markets (Foo and Kok 2000; Hui 2005; Islam only, while this effect was not detected in BSE 100,
and Watanapalachaikul 2005; Basher and Sadorsky BSE 500, and S&P CNX 500 (Padhi 2010). Day of the
2006; Lean et al. 2007; Anwar and Mulyadi 2009); week effect was also reported for IT companies of
Japanese stock market (Dhaoui et al. 2011); Malaysian Indian stock market (Debasish 2012).
stock market (Kok and Wong 2004; Lim and Dollery
2010; Muhammad and Rahman 2010); Taiwan stock
market (Huang and Liao 2010); Chinese stock market Day of week effect in both return and volatility
(Gao and Kling 2005; Cai et al. (2006); Pakistani stock of stock market
market (Zafar et al. 2010); Nepalese stock market
(Bahadur and Joshi 2005); and Dhaka Stock Exchange According to Capital Asset Pricing Model, risk and
(Chowdhury and Sharmin 2010) return are positively related with each other, and
Opposite to this, day of the week effect in five therefore for a particular day on which volatility is
ASEAN equity markets like Malaysia, Singapore, higher than other day volatility, return of that day
Thailand, Indonesia, and Philippines after Asian should also be higher than return of other week days
financial crisis was opposed by Chen and Liang (Mookerjee and Yu 1999). This risk and return
(2004); for Korea (Kamath and Chusanachoti 2002) relationship in stock market seasonality was chal-
and for Pakistan (Hussain 2000; Ullah and Usman lenged by Clare et al. (1998), Beller and Nofsinger
2010). (1998), and Lucey (2000).
Yakob et al. (2005) investigated stock market Day of the week effect in return and volatility was
seasonality in ten Asian countries and found that day recognized for US stock market (Berument and Dogan
of the week effect was existed in only five countries 2012); European stock markets (Högholm and Knif
including India, while month of the year effect was 2009; Savva et al. 2006); French stock market
found for eight countries. Similarly, Hui (2005) (Dimitrios and Katerina 2003); Hungarian and Polish
investigated day of the week effect in Singapore, stock markets (Poshakwale and Murinde 2011);
Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. He found this effect Chilean stock market (Kamath and Liu 2011); Saudi
only in Singapore stock market. stock exchange (Ulussever et al. 2011); and Karachi
The presence of day of the week effect was also stock Exchange (Shaheen 2006). However, day of the
supported by Tong (2000) and Lim and Dollery week effect in volatility was refused for European
(2010). On the other hand, the presence of day of the stock markets (Apolinario et al. 2006) and Italian
week hypothesis was rejected by some studies such as stock market (Guidi 2010).
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330 Decision (September 2014) 41(3):327–337
Day of the week effect in Turkey market was by 100, Rt = ln (Pt/Pt - 1) 9 100, where Pt and
present during 2003–2005, but that effect was disap- Pt - 1 are daily closing value of stock market indices
peared during 2005–2007 (Kamath and Liu 2011). at day t and t - 1, respectively.
Similarly, significant negative return on Monday was The presence of day of the week effect depends on
found for small and mid cap companies of New data period and methodology used for the study (Chen
Zealand, but Monday effect was absent in large cap et al. 2001). For the first approach, this study that
companies (Bin and Benjamin 2011). exercises to detect day of the week effect is to compute
Day of week effect was existed in both return and descriptive statistics of all individual weekdays for
volatility of stock market (Aggarwal and Rivoli 1989; both subperiods as well as for complete period. These
Yadav and Pope 1992; Hakan and Halil 2001; descriptive statistics help in comparing mean return of
Bhattacharya et al. 2003). But this effect was not all week days. If mean return varies across all days, it
contributing toward improvement in volatility fore- indicates that day of the week effect may exist.
casting (Charles 2010). Contradicting to this, some For the second approach, this study has three
studies had opposed day of the week effect in return available alternatives. As a first option, some studies
and volatility of stock markets (Balaban et al. 2001; had used nonparametric Kruskal–Wallis test for inves-
Kiymaz and Berument 2003). tigating day of the week anomaly (Hui 2005; Chander
Monday had a significant negative effect on stock et al. 2008; Lim et al. 2010). They argued that the error
market return of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, term resulting from application of OLS method might
but Monday effect was absent in both return and not be stationary because of heteroscedasticity problem.
volatility of Indian stock market (Choudhry 2000). Second, some studies had applied parametric test like t
Application of GARCH model to Indian stock market test and regression analysis (Agrawal and Tandon 1994;
revealed that Thursday and Friday were providing Choudhry 2000; Coutts et al. 2000; Al-Loughani and
significantly positive return, while OLS method found Chappel 2001). They had utilized only dummy vari-
that Monday was providing significantly higher return ables for week days as independent variables in
than all other week days (Bhattacharya et al. 2003). regression analysis. However, results of these studies
were challenged by Bhattacharya et al. (2003); Muham-
mad and Rahman (2010) and Guidi (2010). They have
Data and methodology added lagged values of stock return to mean equation of
stock return as shown in Eq. 1.
The aim of present study is to investigate the effect of
introduction of T?2 settlement cycle on day of the Rt ¼ a1 þ a2 D2t þ a3 D3t þ a4 D4t þ a5 D5t
week anomaly in return and volatility of Indian stock Xm
market. This study analyzes daily closing price data of þ ai Rti þ lt ; ð1Þ
i¼1
two leading Indian stock market indices namely
Sensex and Nifty over the period January 2, 1991 to where Rt is return of stock index, and D2t, D3t, D4t, and D5t
January 31, 2013 covering 5763 samples. Five obser- are dummy variables for Tuesday, Wednesday, Thurs-
vations per week are considered. Wherever, data day, and Friday, respectively. Here, D2t = 1, if t is
points that are missing are calculated by using linear Tuesday and 0 otherwise, similarly, D3t = 1, if t is
interpolation method in EViews. Rolling settlement of Wednesday and 0 otherwise, and so on. Dummy variable
T?2 types was introduced on April 1, 2003. There- for Monday is not included to avoid dummy variable trap.
fore, this study divides total sample period in two Constant a1 represents average Monday return.
subperiods. First, Period before the introduction of Furthermore, Stock market return has time varying
T?2 settlements is from January 2, 1991 to March 31, volatility, and therefore, application of normal OLS
2003. And second, Period after the introduction of method to stock return might provide misleading
T?2 settlements is from April 1, 2003 to January 31, information for day of week effect (Connolly 1989).
2013. Time series data for Sensex and Nifty are And therefore, third option is to apply Generalized
collected from the websites of BSE and NSE, respec- Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity
tively. Daily return is calculated by taking natural (GARCH) model (Bollerslev 1986) for accessing the
logarithmic first difference of the series and multiply it day of the week effect in both return and volatility of
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Decision (September 2014) 41(3):327–337 331
stock market. The GARCH (p,q) model is shown in subperiods viz first before the introduction of T?2
Eq. 2. settlement and second after the introduction of T?2
settlement. Further, descriptive statistics for each
Yt ¼ a þ b0 Xt þ lt
individual week days are also calculated. Results of
lt j Xt iid N ð0; ht Þ these descriptive statistics for Sensex and Nifty are
X p X
q ð2Þ
presented in Tables 1 and 2, respectively. Descriptive
h2t ¼ c0 þ di h2ti þ cj l2tj statistics reveals that mean return for both Sensex and
i¼1 j¼1
Nifty has been increased, while standard deviation has
To investigate the presence of day of the week been decreased after the introduction of T?2 settle-
effect in Indian stock market, the present study applies ment. Moreover, both Monday and Thursday have
GARCH (1,1) model and is demonstrated in Eq. 3. provided negative return before the introduction of
Most of the recent studies have used this methodology T?2 settlements, while returns of all week days are
(Choudhry 2000; Balaban et al. 2001; Yakob et al. positive after the introduction of T?2 settlement.
2005; Kamath and Liu 2011; Ulussever and Kar 2011; Tuesday and Thursday returns of both Sensex and
and Berument and Dogan 2012). Nifty are negatively skewed before the introduction of
T?2, while after introduction of T?2, Wednesday,
Rt ¼ a1 þ a2 D2t þ a3 D3t þ a4 D4t þ a5 D5t
Thursday, and Friday returns of both Sensex and Nifty
Xm
þ ai Rti þ lt are negatively skewed. Consequently, return of all
i¼1 weekdays after the introduction of T?2 becomes
lt j Xt iid N ð0; ht Þ negatively skewed. Kurtosis values of both stock
market indices for both the time periods disclose that
h2t ¼ c0 þ d1 h2t1 þ c1 l2t1 ð3Þ
stock market return of whole week and return of each
Before applying GARCH model to stock market individual week days follow Leptokurtic distribution.
indices, it is essential to test stationary of these stock Similarly, Jarque–Bera statistics concludes that all
market indices. For the same, Augmented Dickey– week days returns of Sensex and Nifty for both the
Fuller (ADF) (Dickey and Fuller 1979, 1981) test has time period do not follow normal distribution.
been applied. It is based on simple logic that stationary Result of ADF unit root test is reported in
process possesses mean reversion characteristic, and Table 3. Here, ADF test statistic values are lower
variance of such series remains constant. This test is than the 1 % critical values of both Constant and
conducted by adding the lagged value of dependent Trend models. Hence, The null Hypotheses of
variable. Therefore, it behaves like AR (1) process Sensex and Nifty have unit root, can be rejected at
with q = 1. Dickey Fuller test is designed to examine level for both subperiods and for whole sample
if q = 1. The complete model with deterministic period. Thus, returns of both stock market indices
terms such as intercepts and trends is shown in Eq. (4). are stationary series, and they can safely be used for
X
m econometric modeling.
DRt ¼ a þ p þ dRt1 þ bi DRt1 þ et : ð4Þ For investigating day of the week anomaly, this
i¼1 study has applied GARCH (1, 1) model. Result of
The null hypothesis of series has a unit root is tested GARCH (1, 1) model for Sensex is presented in
for ADF unit root test against alternative hypothesis of Table 4. It indicates that for the whole sample period
no unit root. If ADF calculated value is smaller than and for the period of before the introduction of T?2
the test critical value, then null hypothesis of unit root settlement, Tuesday return is significantly different
that exists will be rejected. from all other days. While after the introduction of
T?2 settlement, Monday return is significantly dif-
ferent from all other days. Additionally, volatilities of
Empirical analysis Monday and Thursday are significantly different from
all other days’ volatility. However, before the intro-
First, this study presents descriptive statistics like duction of T?2 settlement, Thursday volatility is
Mean, Standard Deviation, Skewness, Kurtosis, Jar- significant, but after the introduction of T?2 settle-
que–Bera Statistic, and Probability Value for both ment, volatilities of all days are insignificant.
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Decision (September 2014) 41(3):327–337 333
Similarly, result of GARCH (1, 1) model for return is significantly different from all other days.
Nifty is presented in Table 5. It indicates that for the Additionally, volatility of Thursday is significantly
whole sample period, Tuesday and Friday returns different from all other days’ volatility for whole
are significantly different from all other days, and sample period and for the period of before the
for the period of before the introduction of T?2 introduction of T?2 settlement. Although after the
settlement, Monday return is also significant. While introduction of T?2 settlement, volatilities of all
after the introduction of T?2 settlement, Monday days are insignificant.
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Decision (September 2014) 41(3):327–337 335
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