ENSO: Recent Evolution,

Current Status and Predictions

Update prepared by:

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
17 September 2018
Outline
Summary
Recent Evolution and Current Conditions
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
Pacific SST Outlook
U.S. Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks
Summary
 Summary
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
ENSO-neutral conditions are present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above average across
most of the Pacific Ocean.
There is a 50-55% chance of El Niño onset during the Northern Hemisphere fall
2018 (September-November), increasing to 65-70% during winter 2018-19.*

* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association
with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.
Recent Evolution of
Equatorial Pacific SST
Departures (oC)

From September 2017 to late March

2018, below-average SSTs persisted
across the central and eastern Pacific
Ocean.
Since early June, near-to-above
average SSTs have been present across
most of the Pacific Ocean.
Niño Region SST
Departures (oC) Recent
Evolution

The latest weekly SST

departures are:
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.2ºC
SST Departures (oC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last
Four Weeks
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average in parts of the
central and western Pacific. Above-average SSTs were generally observed north of
the equator, while below-average SSTs were present south of the equator.

30
26
Global SST Departures (oC) During the Last Four Weeks

During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average in parts of the central
and western Pacific Ocean. SSTs were below average near Indonesia.

30
26
Weekly SST Departures
during the Last Four
Weeks

During the last four weeks, above-average

SSTs were present near the Date Line.
Recently, above-average SSTs have re-
emerged in the eastern Pacific.
Change in Weekly SST Departures over the Last Four
Weeks
During the last four weeks, small regions of positive and negative changes were
observed in the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific, while negative changes
were apparent near the Date Line.
Upper-Ocean Conditions in
the Equatorial Pacific

The basin-wide equatorial upper ocean (0-300 m)

heat content is greatest prior to and during the
early stages of a Pacific warm (El Niño) episode
(compare top 2 panels), and least prior to and
during the early stages of a cold (La Niña)
episode.

The slope of the oceanic thermocline is least

(greatest) during warm (cold) episodes.

Recent values of the upper-ocean heat

anomalies (above average) and thermocline
slope index (near average) reflect ENSO-neutral
conditions.

The monthly thermocline slope index represents the

difference in anomalous depth of the 20ºC isotherm
between the western Pacific (160ºE-150ºW) and the
eastern Pacific (90º-140ºW).
 Central and Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m)
Weekly Average Temperature Anomalies

Negative subsurface temperature anomalies lasted from August 2017 to February 2018.
Since the end of February, temperature anomalies have increased and remained positive.
 Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial
Pacific
In the last two months, positive subsurface
temperature anomalies have expanded in the central
and east-central Pacific.

Most recent pentad analysis

A small area of negative temperature anomalies

persists in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
 Tropical OLR and Wind
Anomalies During the Last
30 Days
Negative OLR anomalies (increased convection
and precipitation) were evident over Papua New
Guinea and positive OLR anomalies (reduced
convection and precipitation) were observed over
western Indonesia and Malaysia.

Anomalous low-level (850-hPa) cross-equatorial

winds were evident over the eastern Pacific
Ocean.

Anomalous upper-level (200-hPa) westerly

winds were evident over the eastern Pacific.
Intraseasonal Variability

Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related
to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface
conditions across the Pacific Ocean.

Related to this activity:

Significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-
propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
 Weekly Heat Content
Evolution in the Equatorial
Pacific
From December 2017- May 2018, successive
Kelvin waves contributed to the eastward shift of
positive and negative subsurface temperature
anomalies.
From early April 2018 to early July, positive
subsurface temperature anomalies persisted
across most of the equatorial Pacific, with the
largest anomalies from mid-May to mid-July 2018
occurring between ~150º-110ºW.
During July-August 2018, positive subsurface
temperature anomalies weakened in the eastern
Pacific.
Since early August 2018, positive subsurface
anomalies have increased, especially in the
central Pacific.
Equatorial oceanic Kelvin waves have
alternating warm and cold phases. The warm
phase is indicated by dashed lines. Down-
welling and warming occur in the leading
portion of a Kelvin wave, and up-welling and
cooling occur in the trailing portion.
 Low-level (850-hPa)
Zonal (east-west) Wind
Anomalies (m s-1)
At times, the Madden Julian Oscillation
(MJO) contributed to the eastward
propagation of low-level wind anomalies.
Since mid-July, westerly wind anomalies
have become more prevalent over the
equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Westerly Wind Anomalies (orange/red shading)

Easterly Wind Anomalies (blue shading)
 Upper-level (200-hPa)
Velocity Potential
Anomalies
From mid February through June 2018,
anomalous upper-level convergence
(brown shading) persisted over the
central Pacific.

Eastward propagation of regions of

upper-level divergence (green shading)
and convergence (brown shading) has
been evident.

Since early July 2018, anomalous upper-

level convergence has persisted over the
Indian Ocean, while anomalous upper-
level divergence has mostly persisted
over the central and east-central Pacific.

Unfavorable for precipitation (brown shading)

Favorable for precipitation (green shading)

Note: Eastward propagation is not necessarily indicative of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
 Outgoing Longwave
Radiation (OLR) Anomalies

Through June 2018 and from mid-July to

mid-August, positive OLR anomalies
persisted over the central Pacific Ocean.
Recently, negative OLR anomalies have
emerged near Indonesia (~120ºE).

Drier-than-average Conditions (orange/red shading)

Wetter-than-average Conditions (blue shading)
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a
principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.

Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region.
Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses
(Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v5). The SST reconstruction methodology is
described in Huang et al., 2017, J. Climate, vol. 30, 8179-8205.)

It is one index that helps to place current events into a historical perspective
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña

El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.

La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode,

these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping
3-month seasons.

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST
departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These
anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.
 ONI (ºC): Evolution
since 1950

The most recent ONI value

(June – August 2018) is +0.1ºC.

El Niño
Neutral
La Niña
Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the
ONI computed using ERSST.v5
Recent Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 ºC for the Oceanic
Nino Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W)].
For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the
threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.
The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether
features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods. The complete
table going back to DJF 1950 can be found here.

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9

2007 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6

2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7

2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6

2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6

2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0

2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2

2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3

2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7

2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6

2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6

2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0

2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1

CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook
Updated: 13 September 2018

ENSO-neutral is favored through August-October 2018, with El Niño favored

thereafter. Chances for El Niño are 65-70% during Northern Hemisphere winter
2018-19.
IRI/CPC Pacific Niño
3.4 SST Model Outlook

The majority of models predict

El Niño to develop during
September-November 2018.

Figure provided by the International Research

Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society
(updated 20 August 2018).
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast (PDF corrected)
Issued: 16 September 2018

The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) favors El Niño forming in the next
month and continuing through winter 2018-19.
Atmospheric anomalies over
the North Pacific and North
America During the Last 60
Days
From mid-July to mid-August 2018, anomalous
ridging (and above-average temperatures)
occurred over the western U.S, while anomalous
troughing (and below-average temperatures)
were evident over the central or eastern U.S.

Since late August 2018, anomalous ridging (and

above-average temperatures) were evident over
the eastern U.S.

1 of 3
Atmospheric anomalies over
the North Pacific and North
America During the Last 60
Days
From mid-July to mid-August 2018, anomalous
ridging (and above-average temperatures)
occurred over the western U.S, while anomalous
troughing (and below-average temperatures)
were evident over the central or eastern U.S.

Since late August 2018, anomalous ridging (and

above-average temperatures) were evident over
the eastern U.S.

2 of 3
Atmospheric anomalies over
the North Pacific and North
America During the Last 60
Days
From mid-July to mid-August 2018, anomalous
ridging (and above-average temperatures)
occurred over the western U.S, while anomalous
troughing (and below-average temperatures)
were evident over the central or eastern U.S.

Since late August 2018, anomalous ridging (and

above-average temperatures) were evident over
the eastern U.S.

3 of 3
U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Departures During
the Last 30 Days

End Date: 15 September 2018

Percent of Average Precipitation Temperature Departures (degree C)

1 of 2
U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Departures During
the Last 90 Days

End Date: 15 September 2018

Percent of Average Precipitation Temperature Departures (degree C)

2 of 2
U. S. Seasonal Outlooks
September – November 2018

The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture,
and, when appropriate, ENSO.

Precipitation Temperature
 Summary
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
ENSO-neutral conditions are present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above average across
most of the Pacific Ocean.
There is a 50-55% chance of El Niño onset during the Northern Hemisphere fall
2018 (September-November), increasing to 65-70% during winter 2018-19.*

* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association
with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.