Richard J Smith - Key Concepts of Fate and Prediction in The Yijing 20110625

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 67

Selected Articles

.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

RU VR 2QH RI WKHVH LV PRVW FHUWDLQO\ ಯIDWHರ RU ಯGHVWLQ\ರ %XW


DV WKH /XSNH YROXPH DOVR LQGLFDWHV WKHUH KDYH DOVR EHHQ
D JUHDW PDQ\ GLIIHUHQW FRQVWUXFWLRQV DQG XQGHUVWDQGLQJV RI
WKLV SDUWLFXODU QRWLRQ 7KLV SDSHU H[SORUHV VRPH RI WKH ZD\V
WKDW WKH <LMLQJ &ODVVLF RI &KDQJHV 㢢倢 DGGUHVVHV LVVXHV
RI ಯGHVWLQ\ರ JLYLQJ SDUWLFXODU DWWHQWLRQ WR WKH VSHFLDOL]HG
WHUPV LQ WKH &KDQJHV WKDW GHDO ZLWK WKH UHODWHG SUREOHPV RI
ಯNQRZLQJ IDWHರ ]KLPLQJ 䩴✌ DQG ಯHVWDEOLVKLQJ IDWH OLPLQJ
䵚✌  ,W ZLOO DOVR JLYH DWWHQWLRQ WR WKH KLJKO\ UHILQHG YRFDE
XODU\ HPSOR\HG E\ WKH <LMLQJ DQG UHODWHG ZRUNV WR HYDOXDWH
FRVPLFDOO\ RUGDLQHG VLWXDWLRQV DQG HVSHFLDOO\ WKH ZD\ WKDW
XQGHUVWDQGLQJV RI WKLV VSHFLDOL]HG YRFDEXODU\ KDYH HYROYHG
RYHU WLPH DQG KDYH EHHQ H[SUHVVHG LQ YDULRXV FRPPHQWDULHV
IURP VRSKLVWLFDWHG H[HJHWLFDO VWXGLHV WR UHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH
SULPHUV VXFK DV WKH ODWH 0LQJ ZRUN E\ +XDQJ <XQ 煒墙
NQRZQ DV 8QGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH <LMLQJ DW D *ODQFH <LMLQJ \LMLDQ
QHQJMLH 㢢倢₏尚厌屲  6RPH RI WKH HYDOXDWLYH WHUPV WR EH
GLVFXVVHG OLVWHG DOSKDEHWLFDOO\ LQ 3LQ\LQ WUDQVOLWHUDWLRQ DUH
OL Ⓒ OL ♁ OLQ ⚬ KXL ㌣ MLX ✝ DQG ZXMLX 㡰✝ ML ⚘ ZDQJ
ℰ [LDQJ ℺ KHQJ ℷ  [LRQJ ⒅ \RQJ 䞷 \XDQ ⏒ DQG ]KHQ
弭 $Q\ VWXG\ RI VSHFLDOL]HG WHUPLQRORJ\ಧHVSHFLDOO\ ZKHQ LW
DSSHDUV LQ WKH HDUOLHVW VWUDWD RI DQ DQFLHQW &KLQHVH WH[W OLNH
WKH &KDQJHVಧHQFRXQWHUV WKH YH[LQJ SKLORORJLFDO SUREOHPV
RI PXOWLSOH ORDQ ZRUGV REVFXUH PHDQLQJV DQG RI FRXUVH
GLIIHUHQW XQGHUVWDQGLQJV RI WHUPV RYHU WLPH


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

AMi`Q/m+iBQM
)URP WKH +DQ G\QDVW\  %&( &( WKURXJK WKH 4LQJ
 WKH <LMLQJ UHPDLQHG D ZRUN RI HQRUPRXV DQG
XQFKDOOHQJHG VFULSWXUDO DXWKRULW\ HYHU\RQH LQ &KLQHVH
VRFLHW\ HVWHHPHG LW DQG HPSOR\HG LW LQ VRPH ZD\ IURP
HPSHURUV DQG RIILFLDOV WR DUWLVDQV DQG SHDVDQWV &RPPRQHUV
XVHG SDJHV IURP WKH ERRN DV D FKDUP WR ZDUG RII HYLO DQG
VFKRODUV JDYH LW SULGH RI SODFH DV ಯILUVW DPRQJ WKH >&RQIX
FLDQ@ FODVVLFVರ $OWKRXJK WKH GRFXPHQW FRQWDLQV IHZ H[SOLFLW
UHIHUHQFHV WR VXSHUQDWXUDO EHLQJV RU VXSHUQDWXUDO IRUFHV LW
KDV DOZD\V KDG D SURIRXQGO\ VSLULWXDO GLPHQVLRQ ,QGHHG
WKH &KDQJHV GHVFULEHV LWVHOI DV ಯWKH PRVW VSLULWXDO WKLQJ LQ
WKH ZRUOGರ %\ YLUWXH RI LWV VSLULWXDO SRZHU ZH DUH WROG WKH
<LMLQJ ಯOHWV RQH NQRZ ZKDW LV JRLQJ WR FRPH DQG E\ YLUWXH RI
LWV ZLVGRP LW EHFRPHV D UHSRVLWRU\ RI ZKDW KDV KDSSHQHGರ
%XW ZKHUHDV PRVW UHOLJLRXV WUDGLWLRQV ERWK (DVW DQG :HVW
KDYH HPSKDVL]HG WKH DFWLYLWLHV RI D JRG RU JRGV DV DQ
H[SODQDWLRQ IRU FRVPLF SURFHVVHV GHYRWHHV RI WKH &KDQJHV
KDYH ORQJ KHOG WKH YLHZ WKDW VXFK H[SODQDWLRQV UHVLGH LQ WKH
FRVPLF SRZHUV HPERGLHG LQ LWV OLQHV WULJUDPV DQG KH[DJUDPV

q?i Bb i?2 uBDBM; M/ q?i .Q2b Bi .Q, 


"`B27 Pp2`pB2r\
7KH &KDQJHV ILUVW WRRN VKDSH DERXW WKUHH WKRXVDQG \HDUV
DJR DV D GLYLQDWLRQ PDQXDO FRPSULVHG RI VL[W\IRXU VL[OLQH
V\PEROV NQRZQ DV KH[DJUDPV JXD ◵  (DFK KH[DJUDP
ZDV XQLTXHO\ FRQVWUXFWHG GLVWLQJXLVKHG IURP DOO WKH RWKHUV


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

E\ LWV FRPELQDWLRQ RI VROLG DQGRU ಯEURNHQರ


OLQHV 7KH ILUVW WZR KH[DJUDPV LQ WKH FRQ
YHQWLRQDO RUGHU DUH 4LDQ DQG .XQ WKH UHPDLQLQJ VL[W\WZR
KH[DJUDPV UHSUHVHQW SHUPXWDWLRQV RI WKHVH WZR SDUDGLJPDWLF
V\PEROV

)LJXUH   4LDQ )LJXUH   .XQ

$W VRPH SRLQW LQ WKH =KRX G\QDVW\ F  %&( 


QR ODWHU WKDQ WKH QLQWK RU HLJKWK FHQWXU\ HDFK KH[DJUDP
DFTXLUHG D ಯKH[DJUDP QDPHರ JXDPLQJ ◵⚜ D EULHI GHVFULS
WLRQ NQRZQ DV D ಯMXGJPHQWರ WXDQ ㇥ DND ಯWDJರ DQG D
VKRUW H[SODQDWRU\ WH[W IRU HDFK RI LWV VL[ OLQHV FDOOHG D ಯOLQH
VWDWHPHQWರ \DRFL 䓊戼  7KLV KLJKO\ FRPSDFW GRFXPHQW OHVV
WKDQ  FKDUDFWHUV LQ OHQJWK DQG SUREDEO\ ILUVW LQVFULEHG
RQ VWULSV RI EDPERR EHFDPH NQRZQ DV WKH ಯEDVLF WH[Wರ
EHQZHQ 㦻㠖 RI WKH &KDQJHV 7KH RSHUDWLQJ DVVXPSWLRQ
RI WKH <LMLQJ DV LW GHYHORSHG RYHU WLPH ZDV WKDW WKHVH
KH[DJUDPV UHSUHVHQWHG WKH EDVLF FLUFXPVWDQFHV RI FKDQJH
LQ WKH XQLYHUVH DQG WKDW E\ VHOHFWLQJ D SDUWLFXODU KH[DJUDP
RU KH[DJUDPV DQG FRUUHFWO\ LQWHUSUHWLQJ WKH YDULRXV V\PEROLF
HOHPHQWV RI HDFK D SHUVRQ FRXOG JDLQ LQVLJKW LQWR WKH
SDWWHUQV RI FRVPLF FKDQJH DQG GHYLVH D VWUDWHJ\ IRU GHDOLQJ
ZLWK SUREOHPV RU XQFHUWDLQWLHV FRQFHUQLQJ WKH SUHVHQW DQG
WKH IXWXUH


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

'XULQJ WKH WKLUG FHQWXU\ %&( D VHW RI GLYHUVH DQG SRHWLF


FRPPHQWDULHV NQRZQ DV WKH ಯ7HQ :LQJVರ EHFDPH DWWDFKHG
WR WKH &KDQJHV DQG WKH ZRUN UHFHLYHG LPSHULDO VDQFWLRQ
LQ  %&( DV RQH RI WKH ILYH PDMRU ಯ&RQIXFLDQರ FODVVLFV
7KHVH 7HQ :LQJVಧSDUWLFXODUO\ WKH VRFDOOHG ಯ*UHDW &RP
PHQWDU\ರಧDUWLFXODWHG WKH <LMLQJ¶V LPSOLFLW FRVPRORJ\ DQG
LQYHVWHG WKH FODVVLF ZLWK DQ DOOXULQJ SKLORVRSKLFDO IODYRU DQG
DQ DWWUDFWLYH OLWHUDU\ VW\OH 7KH ZRUOGYLHZ RI WKLV DPSOLILHG
YHUVLRQ RI WKH &KDQJHV HPSKDVL]HG FRUUHODWLYH WKLQNLQJ
D KXPDQH FRVPRORJLFDO RXWORRN DQG D IXQGDPHQWDO XQLW\
EHWZHHQ +HDYHQ (DUWK DQG 0DQ )RU WKH QH[W WZR WKRXVDQG
\HDUV RU VR WKH <LMLQJ KHOG SULGH RI SODFH LQ &KLQD DV WKH ಯILUVW
RI WKH >&RQIXFLDQ@ FODVVLFVರ

+RZ GRHV WKH GRFXPHQW ZRUN" 7KH ILUVW SRLQW WR EH PDGH


LV WKDW &KDQJHV DOORZV DQG HYHQ HQFRXUDJHV DQ HQRU
PRXV DPRXQW RI LQWHUSUHWLYH IOH[LELOLW\ E\ QDWXUH LW LV DQ
H[WUDRUGLQDULO\ RSHQHQGHG YHUVDWLOH DQG YLUWXDOO\ LQH[
KDXVWLEOH LQWHOOHFWXDO UHVRXUFH ,W UHIOHFWV ZKDW .HDWV RQFH
UHIHUUHG WR DV ಯQHJDWLYH FDSDELOLW\ರ WKH FDSDFLW\ WR HQFRXQWHU
XQFHUWDLQWLHV P\VWHULHV DQG GRXEWV ಯZLWKRXW DQ LUULWDEOH
UHDFKLQJ DIWHU IDFW UHDVRQರ DQG LW UHOLHV RQ PDQ\ GLIIHUHQW
ZD\V RI NQRZLQJ 7KXV WKHUH DUH DQ\ QXPEHU RI ZD\V WR
DSSURDFK WKH FODVVLF ZKHWKHU DV D ERRN RI GLYLQDWLRQ RU DV D
VRXUFH RI SKLORVRSKLFDO VSLULWXDO RU SV\FKRORJLFDO LQVSLUDWLRQ
7KH HGLWRUV RI &KLQDಬV PRVW LPSRUWDQW SUHPRGHUQ OLWHUDU\
FRPSLODWLRQ WKH &RPSOHWH &ROOHFWLRQ RI WKH )RXU 7UHDVXULHV
6LNX TXDQVKX ⥪ㄺ⏷㦇  UHPDUNHG LQ WKH HLJKWHHQWK FHQWXU\
WKDW LQWHUSUHWLQJ WKH &KDQJHV ZDV OLNH SOD\LQJ FKHVV 1R WZR


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

JDPHV DUH DOLNH DQG WKHUH DUH LQILQLWH SRVVLELOLWLHV &KLQHVH


VFKRODUV KDYH LGHQWLILHG OLWHUDOO\ KXQGUHGV RI LQWHUSUHWLYH
WUDGLWLRQV IRFXVHG RQ WKH <LMLQJ LQ LPSHULDO WLPHV DORQH $W WKH
VDPH WLPH KRZHYHU RIILFLDOO\ HQGRUVHG FRPPHQWDULHV RQ
WKH &KDQJHV JXLGHG UHDGHUV HVSHFLDOO\ WKRVH ZKR KRSHG WR
SDVV WKH VWDWH H[DPLQDWLRQV IURP WKH HDUO\ IRXUWHHQWK FHQWXU\
WR 

$V LQGLFDWHG DERYH WKH MXGJPHQW RI D KH[DJUDP VRPHWLPHV


GHVFULEHG DV D ಯKH[DJUDP VWDWHPHQWರ D ಯGHFLVLRQರ RU ಯWDJರ
VXJJHVWV WKH RYHUDOO PHDQLQJ RI WKH KH[DJUDPಧLQ SDUWLFXODU
LWV SRZHUV DQG SRVVLELOLWLHV 7KH VL[ OLQHV RI HDFK KH[DJUDP
UHSUHVHQW D VLWXDWLRQ LQ WLPH DQG VSDFH D ಯILHOG RI DFWLRQ
ZLWK PXOWLSOH DFWRUV RU IDFWRUVರ DOO RI ZKLFK DUH LQ FRQVWDQW
G\QDPLF SOD\ 7KH OLQHV UHDGLQJ IURP WKH ERWWRP WR WKH WRS
UHSUHVHQW WKH HYROXWLRQ RI WKLV VLWXDWLRQ DQGRU WKH PDMRU
SOD\HUV LQYROYHG 7KH ILUVW VHFRQG DQG WKLUG OLQHV FRQVWLWXWH
D ಯORZHUರ WULJUDP DQG WKH IRXUWK ILIWK DQG VL[WK OLQHV FRPSULVH
DQ ಯXSSHUರ WULJUDP HDFK KDYLQJ LWV RZQ VHW RI SULPDU\ DQG
VHFRQGDU\ V\PEROLF DWWULEXWHV ,QWHUSUHWDWLRQ LQYROYHV DQ
XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH OLQHV OLQH
VWDWHPHQWV DQG WULJUDPV RI WKH FKRVHQ KH[DJUDP DQG RIWHQ
DQ DSSUHFLDWLRQ RI WKH ZD\ WKDW WKH VHOHFWHG KH[DJUDP LV
UHODWHG WR RWKHU KH[DJUDPV &RPPHQWDULHV RI HYHU\ FRQFHLY
DEOH VRUW KDYH KLVWRULFDOO\ SURYLGHG JXLGDQFH LQ QHJRWLDWLQJ D
SDWK WR XQGHUVWDQGLQJ LQFOXGLQJ VKDUHG XQGHUVWDQGLQJ

0RVW KH[DJUDP QDPHV LQ WKH &KDQJHV >VHH KDQGRXW@ VHHP


WR KDYH EHHQ GHULYHG IURP D WHUP RU FRQFHSW WKDW DSSHDUV LQ
WKHLU UHVSHFWLYH MXGJPHQWV DQGRU LQGLYLGXDO OLQH VWDWHPHQWV


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

/HW XV WDNH WKH *HQ 哽 KH[DJUDP ಧ QXPEHU  LQ WKH


UHFHLYHG YHUVLRQ DQG YDULRXVO\ WUDQVODWHG DV 0RXQWDLQ
5HVWUDLQW .HHSLQJ 6WLOO %RXQG 6WDELOL]LQJ /LPLWHG ,PPR
ELOH 6WHDGLQHVV HWF ಧ DV DQ H[DPSOH , KDYH FKRVHQ WR
HPSKDVL]H WKLV KH[DJUDP QRW RQO\ EHFDXVH D QXPEHU RI
&KLQHVH VFKRODUV ERWK SDVW DQG SUHVHQW KDYH VHHQ LW DV
FDSWXULQJ WKH ಯHVVHQFHರ RI WKH <LMLQJ EXW DOVR EHFDXVH LW KDV
ORQJ KDG ZLGH DSSHDO LQ &KLQD DQG HOVHZKHUH LQ (DVW $VLD
DV DQ REMHFW RI FRQWHPSODWLRQ IRU &RQIXFLDQV %XGGKLVWV DQG
'DRLVWV DOLNH

,Q WKLV KH[DJUDP WKH FKDUDFWHU JHQ 哽 DSSHDUV QRW RQO\ LQ


WKH MXGJPHQW EXW DOVR LQ DOO VL[ RI WKH OLQH VWDWHPHQWV +HUH LV
ZKDW RQH HDUO\ =KRX G\QDVW\ F  %&( XQGHUVWDQG
LQJ RI WKH MXGJPHQW DQG WKH LQGLYLGXDO OLQH VWDWHPHQWV RI WKH
*HQ KH[DJUDP PLJKW KDYH EHHQ

)LJXUH  *HQ

-XGJPHQW ,I RQH FOHDYHV WKH EDFN KH ZLOO QRW JHW KROG


RI WKH ERG\ LI RQH JRHV LQWR WKH FRXUW\DUG KH ZLOO QRW
VHH WKH SHUVRQ 7KHUH ZLOO EH QR PLVIRUWXQH ZXMLX 
哽␅卛ₜ䘁␅愺嫛␅ㄼₜ尚ⅉ㡰✝

)LUVW ERWWRP OLQH &OHDYH WKH IHHW 7KHUH ZLOO EH QR PLVIRU


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

WXQH ZXMLX  )DYRUDEOH LQ D ORQJUDQJH GHWHUPLQDWLRQ OL \RQJ


]KHQ  哽␅恍㡰✝Ⓒ㻇弭

6HFRQG OLQH &OHDYH WKH ORZHU OHJV EXW GRQಬW UHPRYH WKH ERQH
PDUURZ +LV KHDUW LV QRW SOHDVHG 哽␅叢ₜ㕾␅椷␅㉒ₜ㉺

7KLUG OLQH &OHDYH WKH ZDLVW UHQG WKH VSLQDO PHDW ,W LV


WKUHDWHQLQJ OL  6PRNH WKH KHDUW 哽␅棟⒦␅⮳♁堿㉒

)RXUWK OLQH &OHDYH WKH WRUVR >OLW ERG\@ 7KHUH ZLOO EH QR


PLVIRUWXQH ZXMLX  哽␅愺㡰✝

)LIWK OLQH &OHDYH WKH MDZ 7DON ZLOO EH RUGHUO\ 7URXEOHV KXL
ZLOO JR DZD\ 哽␅憣岏㦘ㄞ㌣ℰ

6L[WK OLQH &OHDYH WKLFNO\ $XVSLFLRXV ML  㟵哽⚘

$QRWKHU HQWLUHO\ SRVVLEOH YHUEDO PHDQLQJ RI JHQ LQ WKLV


SDUWLFXODU KH[DJUDP LV ಯWR JODUH DWರ ZKLFK ZRXOG RI FRXUVH
IXQGDPHQWDOO\ FKDQJH WKH PHDQLQJ RI HDFK OLQH

$V LV DSSDUHQW IURP WKH DERYH H[DPSOH PDQ\ KH[DJUDP


MXGJPHQWV DUH H[WUHPHO\ FU\SWLF DQG VXEMHFW WR DQ\ QXPEHU
RI LQWHUSUHWDWLRQV $ ODUJH QXPEHU RI MXGJPHQWV SUREDEO\
VHYHQW\ SHUFHQW UHIHU WR DQFLHQW DQG QRZ REVFXUH GLYLQDWRU\
IRUPXODV LQYROYLQJ VDFULILFHV DQGRU RIIHULQJV WR VSLULWV +HUH
DUH D IHZ H[DPSOHV RI VXFK IRUPXODV 4LDQ QXPEHU  LQ
WKH UHFHLYHG RUGHU  ಯ3ULPDU\ UHFHLSW >RU D JUDQG RIIHULQJ RU
SHUKDSV JUHDW HQMR\PHQW@ IDYRUDEOH IRU D >GLYLQDWRU\@ GH


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

WHUPLQDWLRQ \XDQKHQJ OL]KHQ ⏒ℷⒸ弭 ರ 6KL QXPEHU  


ಯ7KH GHWHUPLQDWLRQ LV IDYRUDEOH OL]KHQ Ⓒ弭 IRU D JUHDW PDQ
QR PLVIRUWXQH ZXMLX 㡰✝ ರ /¾ QXPEHU  ಯ6WHS RQ WKH
WLJHUಬV WDLO LW ZRQಬW ELWH WKH SHUVRQ D VDFULILFLDO RIIHULQJ KHQJ
ℷ ರ 7RQJUHQ QXPEHU   ಯ*DWKHU WKH SHRSOH LQ WKH RSHQ
FRXQWU\ D VDFULILFLDO RIIHULQJ KHQJ ℷ  IDYRUDEOH OL Ⓒ IRU
FURVVLQJ D ELJ ULYHU D IDYRUDEOH GHWHUPLQDWLRQ IRU D QREOH
SHUVRQ OL MXQ]L ]KHQ Ⓒ⚪⷟弭 ರ 'D\RX QXPEHU   ಯ$
JUHDW KDUYHVW SULPDU\ UHFHLSW >RU D JUDQG RIIHULQJ@ \XDQKHQJ
⏒ℷ ರ 4LDQ QXPEHU   ಯ5HFHLSW RI DQ RIIHULQJ KHQJ ℷ 
IRU DQ H[HPSODU\ SHUVRQ WKHUH ZLOO EH D FRQFOXVLRQರ 6KLNH
QXPEHU   ಯ5HFHLSW RI DQ RIIHULQJ KHQJ ℷ  IDYRUDEOH
OL Ⓒ IRU UHVROYLQJ D OHJDO GLVSXWHರ %R QXPEHU   ಯ1RW
IDYRUDEOH EXOL ₜⒸ ZKHQ WKHUH LV VRPHZKHUH WR JRರ

/RQJHU MXGJPHQWV JHQHUDOO\ SURYLGH YDULDWLRQV RQ WKH VDPH RU


VLPLODU WKHPHV )RU LQVWDQFH .XQ QXPEHU  LQ WKH UHFHLYHG
RUGHU  UHDGV ಯ3ULPDU\ UHFHLSW $ GHWHUPLQDWLRQ IDYRUDEOH IRU
D PDUH $ QREOH SHUVRQ MXQ]L ⚪⷟ ZKR LV JRLQJ VRPHZKHUH
ZLOO ILUVW ORVH KLV ZD\ DQG ODWHU ILQG D KRVW )DYRUDEOH WR WKH
ZHVW DQG VRXWK RQH ZLOO ILQG D IULHQG WR WKH HDVW DQG QRUWK
RQH ZLOO ORVH D IULHQG $XVSLFLRXV LQ D GHWHUPLQDWLRQ DERXW
VHFXULW\ DQ ]KHQ ML ⸘弭⚘ ರ )X QXPEHU  UHDGV ಯ$Q
RIIHULQJ LQ JRLQJ RXW DQG FRPLQJ LQ WKHUH ZLOO EH QR LOOQHVV $
IULHQG ZLOO DUULYH ZLWKRXW PLVIRUWXQH ZXMLX 㡰✝  KH ZLOO WXUQ
DURXQG DQG KHDG EDFN RQ KLV ZD\ DQG UHWXUQ LQ VHYHQ GD\V
)DYRUDEOH IRU KDYLQJ VRPHZKHUH WR JRರ 2QH FDQ HDVLO\ VHH
KRZ VXFK VWDWHPHQWV PLJKW OHQG WKHPVHOYHV WR D YDULHW\ RI
LQWHUSUHWDWLRQV HYHQ LI RULJLQDOO\ WKH\ UHIHUUHG WR YHU\ VSHFLILF
FLUFXPVWDQFHV


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

/LNH MXGJPHQWV WKH LQGLYLGXDO OLQH VWDWHPHQWV RI WKH KH[D


JUDPVಧZKLFK YDU\ LQ OHQJWK IURP DV IHZ DV WZR FKDUDFWHUV
WR DV PDQ\ DV WKLUW\ಧRIWHQ LQFOXGH UHFRUGV IURP SUHYLRXV
GLYLQDWLRQV WKDW ZHUH HLWKHU WUDQVPLWWHG RUDOO\ RU UHFRUGHG
LQ HDUO\ GLYLQDWLRQ PDQXDOV RI RQH NLQG RU DQRWKHU 0DQ\ RI
WKHVH VWDWHPHQWV VHHP WR EH EDVHG GLUHFWO\ RU LQGLUHFWO\ RQ
ಯRPHQ YHUVHVರ RI WKH VRUW WKDW FDQ DOVR EH IRXQG RQ 6KDQJ
G\QDVW\ RUDFOH ERQHV +HUH DUH D IHZ H[DPSOHV RI OLQH
VWDWHPHQWV WKDW KDSSHQ WR GHDO H[SOLFLWO\ ZLWK WKH WKHPH RI
PLOLWDU\ DIIDLUV /LQH ILYH RI 6KL QXPEHU  LQ WKH UHFHLYHG
RUGHU  ಯ,Q WKH KXQW WKHUH LV D FDWFK DGYDQWDJHRXV OL Ⓒ
WR VKDFNOH FDSWLYHV QR PLVIRUWXQH ZXMLX 㡰✝  7KH HOGHU
VRQ OHDGV WKH WURRSV WKH \RXQJHU VRQ FDUWV WKH FRUSVHV
WKH GHWHUPLQDWLRQ LV RPLQRXV [LRQJ ⒅ ರ /LQH WKUHH RI /¾
QXPEHU   ಯ7KH IHHEOHVLJKWHG ZLOO EH DEOH WR VHH WKH
ODPH ZLOO EH DEOH WR ZDON 6WHS RQ D WLJHUಬV WDLO LW ZLOO ELWH WKH
SHUVRQ 2PLQRXV [LRQJ ⒅  $ ZDUULRU SHUIRUPV IRU WKH JUHDW
UXOHUರ /LQH VL[ RI )X QXPEHU   ಯ/RVW UHWXUQ RPLQRXV
WKHUH ZLOO EH D FDODPLW\ ]DL 䌌  ,I WURRSV DUH VHW LQ PRWLRQ
WKHUH ZLOO EH D JUHDW GHIHDW )RU WKH UXOHU RI WKH VWDWH LW ZLOO EH
RPLQRXV IRU XS WR WHQ \HDUV LW ZLOO QRW EH SRVVLEOH WR ODXQFK D
PLOLWDU\ FDPSDLJQರ

$V ZLWK WKH MXGJPHQWV PRVW OLQH VWDWHPHQWV WKDW FRQWDLQ


H[SOLFLWO\ GLYLQDWRU\ PDWHULDO LQGLFDWH SRVLWLYH SURJQRVWLFDWLRQV
RU WKH QRQMXGJPHQWDO H[SUHVVLRQ ಯQR KDUPPLVIRUWXQHರ
2YHUDOO LQ WKH EDVLF WH[W RI WKH &KDQJHV LH ERWK WKH
MXGJPHQWV DQG OLQH VWDWHPHQWV  WKH PRVW FRPPRQ QHJDWLYH
WHUPVಧIRU ಯWURXEOHರ RU ಯUHJUHWರಯUHPRUVH ರ ಯGLVWUHVVರ ಯWKUHDW


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

HQLQJರ DQG ಯRPLQRXVರಧDSSHDU D WRWDO RI RQO\ DERXW 


WLPHV DV FRPSDUHG WR DERXW  LQVWDQFHV RI ಯDXVSLFLRXVರ
ಯIDYRUDEOHರ ಯDGYDQWDJHRXVರ RU ಯVXFFHVVIXOರ 2WKHU IDLUO\
IUHTXHQW GLYLQDWRU\ WHUPV VXFK DV ಯWR SXW VRPHWKLQJ WR XVHರ
 RFFXUUHQFHV DOVR KDYH SRVLWLYH FRQQRWDWLRQV

$V VKRXOG DOUHDG\ EH DSSDUHQW FRPPHQWDULHV KDYH ORQJ


EHHQ QHFHVVDU\ WR PDNH VHQVH RI WKH FU\SWLF XWWHUDQFHV UH
IOHFWHG LQ VR PDQ\ KH[DJUDP MXGJPHQWV DQG OLQH VWDWHPHQWV
,QGHHG RYHU WKH ODVW WZR PLOOHQQLD RU VR YLUWXDOO\ HYHU\ RQH
RI WKH IRXU WKRXVDQG RU VR ZRUGV LQ WKH EDVLF WH[W KDV EHHQ
VXEMHFWHG WR LQWHQVH DQG UHOHQWOHVV VFUXWLQ\ 0RUHRYHU PDQ\
SDVVDJHV IURP WKH &KDQJHV KDYH EHHQ LQWHUSUHWHG LQ ZLGHO\
GLVSDUDWH ZD\V 7KH UHDVRQV IRU WKLV GLYHUVLW\ RI RSLQLRQ
DUH QRW GLIILFXOW WR ILQG ,Q WKH ILUVW SODFH WKH GLYLQDWLRQV
UHFRUGHG LQ WKH &KDQJHV XVXDOO\ ODFN VXIILFLHQW FRQWH[W
LQYLWLQJ VRPHWLPHV ZLOG VSHFXODWLRQV $QFLHQW WHUPV DQG
DOOXVLRQV DUH RIWHQ XQFOHDU ORDQ ZRUGV ORFDO YDULDQWV DQG
VFULEDO HUURUV DERXQG

$UFKDHRORJLFDO H[FDYDWLRQV DW VHYHUDO &KLQHVH VLWHV RYHU


WKH SDVW  \HDUV RU VRಧQRWDEO\ 0DZDQJGXL 氻䘚⪕  
)X\DQJ 梫椌 DND 6KXDQJJXGXL 楨♳⪕   7LDQ[
LQJJXDQ ⮸㢮屏   %DRVKDQ ▔⼀   :DQJMLDWDL
䘚⹅♿  *XRGLDQ 捼ㄦ  DQG -LಬQDQ FKHQJ
䉮◦⩝  ಧKDYH UHYHDOHG VHYHUDO GLIIHUHQW YHUVLRQV
RI WKH &KDQJHV VRPH RI ZKLFK VKRZ DIILQLWLHV ZLWK HDUOLHU
GHVFULSWLRQV RI WKH KH[DJUDPEDVHG ZRUNV NQRZQ DV WKH
/LDQVKDQ 抲⼀ ಯ/LQNHG 0RXQWDLQVರ DQG WKH *XLFDQJ 㸇塞
ಯ5HWXUQ WR WKH +LGGHQರ DQGRU ZLWK WH[WXDO IUDJPHQWV


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

DWWULEXWHG WR WKHVH ZRUNV 7KH VRFDOOHG 6KDQJKDL 0XVHXP


YHUVLRQ RI WKH &KDQJHV GDWLQJ IURP FD  %&( LV WKH
HDUOLHVW H[WDQW FRS\ RI WKH FODVVLF ,OOHJDOO\ H[FDYDWHG E\
WRPE UREEHUV LQ WKH HDUO\ V IURP D VLWH LQ -LQJPHQ
嗙栏 +XEHL SURYLQFH WKLV ZRUN FRQVLVWV RI QHDUO\ ILIW\HLJKW
EDPERR VWULSV RU IUDJPHQWV UHYHDOLQJ D WRWDO RI WKLUW\ IRXU
KH[DJUDPV DQG  FKDUDFWHUV D OLWWOH RYHU RQHWKLUG RI
WKH UHFHLYHG WH[W VDQV FRPPHQWDULHV  2QH RI WKH VHYHUDO
IHDWXUHV XQLTXH WR WKLV YHUVLRQ LV WKDW WKH KH[DJUDP SLFWXUHV
DSSHDU WR EH FRPSULVHG RI WULJUDPV WKDW DUH VRPHZKDW
VHSDUDWHG IURP RQH DQRWKHU $QRWKHU XQLTXH IHDWXUH LV WKH
VL[ GLIIHUHQW NLQGV RI VTXDUHVKDSHG EODFN RU UHG V\PEROV
WKDW DSSHDU LPPHGLDWHO\ DIWHU WKH KH[DJUDP QDPHV )LQDOO\
WKHUH DUH D JUHDW PDQ\ YDULDQW FKDUDFWHUV RI WKH VRUW RIWHQ
IRXQG LQ &KLQHVH PDQXVFULSWV IURP WKH VWDWH RI &KX WKDW ZHUH
ZULWWHQ DERXW WKH WLPH RI WKH 6KDQJKDL 0XVHXP YHUVLRQ RI
WKH &KDQJHV

7R WDNH RQH EULHI H[DPSOH WKH 6KDQJKDL 0XVHXP YDULDQW


IRU WKH QDPH RI WKH KH[DJUDP 0HQJ QXPEHU  LQ WKH
UHFHLYHG YHUVLRQ ZKLFK LV JHQHUDOO\ XQGHUVWRRG DV ಯMXYHQLOH
LJQRUDQFHರ RU ಯ\RXWKIXO IROO\ರ  LV 0DQJ ⺷ /RQJKDLUHG GRJ 
3HUKDSV 0DQJ LV VLPSO\ D ORDQ ZRUG IRU 0HQJ KHUH EXW LW
PD\ EH WKH RWKHU ZD\ DURXQG $IWHU DOO VHYHUDO YHUEV LQ WKH
OLQH VWDWHPHQWV RI WKH 0HQJ KH[DJUDP ILW ಯD ORQJKDLUHG GRJರ
DV ZHOO RU EHWWHU WKDQ WKH\ GR DQ LJQRUDQW \RXQJVWHUಧIRU
H[DPSOH ಯELQG >NXQ ⥿@ WKH KDLU\ GRJರ DQG ಯKLW >ML 㝙@ WKH KDLU\
GRJರ

$IWHU WKH ULVH RI &RQIXFLDQLVP DQG RWKHU PRUDOLVWLF SKLORVR


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

SKLHV IURP DERXW WKH VL[WK FHQWXU\ %&( RQZDUG VLPSOH


YDOXHQHXWUDO GHVFULSWLRQV RI HYHQWV WKDW DSSHDUHG LQ WKH
MXGJPHQWV DQG OLQH VWDWHPHQWV RI WKH ಯRULJLQDOರ &KDQJHV
LQFUHDVLQJO\ EHFDPH SUHVFULSWLRQV IRU SURSHU EHKDYLRU ಯGLGVರ
EHFDPH ಯVKRXOGVರ VR WR VSHDN $V SDUW RI WKLV SURFHVV D
QXPEHU RI REVFXUH RU XQVHWWOLQJ WHUPV DQG SKUDVHV FDPH WR
EH XQGHUVWRRG LQ QHZ ZD\V 7KXV D WHUP OLNH IX ⷩ  ZKLFK
RULJLQDOO\ VHHPV WR KDYH GHQRWHG D ಯFDSWXUHರ RU D ಯFDSWLYHರ
FI ≧ LQ ZDU FDPH LQFUHDVLQJO\ WR EH XQGHUVWRRG DV D
PRUDO TXDOLW\ ಯVLQFHULW\ರ RU ಯWUXVWZRUWKLQHVVರ 6LPLODUO\ WKH
WHUP KHQJ ℷ  ZKLFK RULJLQDOO\ KDG WR GR ZLWK WKH VSHFLILF
ULWXDO VDFULILFHV DQG SUD\HUV VXUURXQGLQJ D GLYLQDWLRQ FDPH
WR EH JORVVHG DV ಯSUHYDOHQFHರ ಯVXFFHVVರ RU ಯSHQHWUDWLQJರ
=KHQ 弭  RULJLQDOO\ GHQRWLQJ D GLYLQDWRU\ ಯGHWHUPLQDWLRQರ
LH WKH DQQRXQFHPHQW RI WKH ಯFKDUJHರ WR WKH WXUWOH RU PLOIRLO 
FDPH WR EH LQWHUSUHWHG DV ಯFRQVWDQF\ರ ಯSHUVHYHUDQFHರ
RU ಯFRUUHFWQHVV DQG ILUPQHVVರ DQG D ZRUG WKDW SUHYLRXVO\
GHQRWHG ಯWKLFNQHVVರ KRX ☩ FDPH WR EH PRUH JHQHUDOO\
XQGHUVWRRG DV ಯVLPSOH KRQHVW\ರ %\ WKH VDPH WRNHQ D QREOH
SHUVRQ MXQ]L ⚪⷟ EHFDPH DQ ಯH[HPSODU\ SHUVRQರ DOVR
WUDQVODWHG DV ಯVXSHULRU PDQರ ಯJHQWOHPDQರ HWF  DQG ZRUGV
WKDW SUHYLRXVO\ GHQRWHG ಯWURXEOHರ OLNH KXL ㌣ DQG OLQ ⚬
LQFUHDVLQJO\ FDUULHG PRUDO FRQQRWDWLRQV RI ಯEODPHರ ಯUHPRUVHರ
DQG ಯUHJUHWರ DQG HYHQ ಯKXPLOLDWLRQರ


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

h?2 _Bb2 M/ .2p2HQTK2Mi Q7 avbi2KiB+


*Q``2HiBp2 *QbKQHQ;v
0HDQZKLOH GXULQJ WKH SHULRG IURP DERXW WKH IRXUWK WR WKH
VHFRQG FHQWXULHV %&( &KLQHVH SKLORVRSKHUV GHYHORSHG D
KLJKO\ VRSKLVWLFDWHG FRVPRORJ\ EDVHG RQ ZKDW KDV EHHQ
FDOOHG FRUUHODWLYH WKLQNLQJ ,Q FRQWUDVW WR :HVWHUQVW\OH ಯVXE
RUGLQDWLYH WKLQNLQJರ ZKLFK UHODWHV FODVVHV RI WKLQJV WKURXJK
VXEVWDQFH DQG HPSKDVL]HV WKH LGHD RI H[WHUQDO FDXVDWLRQ LQ
&KLQHVHVW\OH FRUUHODWLYH WKLQNLQJ FRQFHSWV DUH QRW VXEVXPHG
XQGHU RQH DQRWKHU EXW SODFHG VLGH E\ VLGH LQ D SDWWHUQ WKLQJV
EHKDYH LQ FHUWDLQ ZD\V QRW QHFHVVDULO\ EHFDXVH RI SULRU
DFWLRQV RU WKH LPSXOVLRQV RI RWKHU WKLQJV EXW UDWKHU EHFDXVH
WKH\ UHVRQDWH ZLWK RWKHU HQWLWLHV DQG IRUFHV LQ D FRPSOH[
QHWZRUN RI DVVRFLDWLRQV DQG FRUUHVSRQGHQFHV $SSOLHG WR
FRVPRORJ\ WKLV VRUW RI FRUUHODWLYH WKLQNLQJ HQFRXUDJHG WKH
LGHD RI PXWXDOO\ LPSOLFDWHG ಯIRUFH ILHOGVರ LGHQWLILHG E\ KLJKO\
VSHFLDOL]HG WHUPV DQG OLQNHG ZLWK VSHFLILF QXPHULFDO YDOXHV

&HQWUDO WR WKLV DSSURDFK ZDV WKH LGHD RI TL 㺲  OLWHUDOO\


ಯEUHDWKರ RU ಯDLUರ 4L LV RIWHQ WUDQVODWHG DV OLIH EUHDWK HQHUJ\
SQHXPD YLWDO HVVHQFH PDWHULDO IRUFH SULPRUGLDO VXEVWDQFH
SV\FKRSK\VLFDO VWXII DQG VR IRUWK 8QIRUWXQDWHO\ QR VLQJOH
UHQGHULQJ VHUYHV DOO SKLORVRSKLFDO DQG SUDFWLFDO SXUSRVHV
)RU QRZ VXIILFH LW WR VD\ WKDW LQ YDULRXV VWDWHV RI FRDUVHQHVV
RU UHILQHPHQW LW FRPSRVHG DOO REMHFWV LQ WKH ZRUOG DQG
ILOOHG DOO WKH VSDFHV EHWZHHQ WKHP )URP ODWH =KRX WLPHV
RQZDUG HYHU\WKLQJ ZDV DVVXPHG WR EH TL LQ VRPH IRUP IURP
HPLQHQWO\ WDQJLEOH REMHFWV OLNH URFNV DQG ORJV WR PRUH UDUHILHG
SKHQRPHQD OLNH OLJKW DQG KHDW 4L ZDV WKHQ ಯVLPXOWDQHRXVO\


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

ಫZKDW PDNHV WKLQJV KDSSHQ LQ VWXIIಬ DQG GHSHQGLQJ RQ


FRQWH[W ಫVWXII WKDW PDNHV WKLQJV KDSSHQಬ RU ಫVWXII LQ ZKLFK
WKLQJV KDSSHQಬರ

:LWK UHVSHFW WR KXPDQ EHLQJV TL LQ LWV FRDUVHU DVSHFWV


EHFRPHV IOHVK EORRG DQG ERQHV EXW LQ LWV PRVW KLJKO\
UHILQHG PDQLIHVWDWLRQ NQRZQ DV ಯYLWDO HVVHQFHರ LW QRW RQO\
VXIIXVHV DQG DQLPDWHV RXU ERGLHV EXW LW DOVR EHFRPHV RXU
ಯVSLULWರ VKHQ 䯭  ಯ6SLULWರ LQ ODWH =KRX DQG HDUO\ +DQ XVDJH
KDG D ZLGH UDQJH RI PHDQLQJV DV LW GRHV LQ FRQWHPSRUDU\
(QJOLVK %XW ZKHUHDV LQ (QJOLVK WKH WHUP DOPRVW LQYDULDEO\
LPSOLHV D VKDUS FRQWUDVW ZLWK WKH PDWHULDO ERG\ LQ FODVVLFDO
&KLQHVH GLVFRXUVH WKH GLVWLQFWLRQ ZDV QHYHU VR FOHDU 6SLULW
ZDV YLHZHG DV DQ HQWLW\ ZLWKLQ WKH ERG\ WKDW ZDV UHVSRQVLEOH
IRU FRQVFLRXVQHVV FRPELQLQJ ZKDW :HVWHUQHUV ZRXOG
JHQHUDOO\ GLVWLQJXLVK DV ಯKHDUWರ DQG ಯPLQGರ ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV
ಯ7KH QXPLQRXV HVVHQFH >RI KXPDQ EHLQJV@ PLJKW EH WKRXJKW
RI DV WKH LQWHUIDFH EHWZHHQ WKH VHQWLHQW DQG LQVHQWLHQW RU WKH
SV\FKRORJLFDO DQG SK\VLFDO ,W LV D EOHQG RI ERWK DVSHFWV DQG
WKXV DSSURSULDWH IRU D ZRUOG YLHZ WKDW GLG QRW VWURQJO\ YDOXH
VXFK ERXQGDULHV

7KH LPSRUWDQW SRLQW IRU RXU SXUSRVHV LV WKDW IRU ZHOO RYHU WZR
WKRXVDQG \HDUV &KLQHVH RI YDULRXV SKLORVRSKLFDO SHUVXD
VLRQV EHOLHYHG WKDW E\ FXOWLYDWLQJ WKHLU TL WR WKH IXOOHVW H[WHQW
DQG WKXV KDUQHVVLQJ WKH KLJKO\ UHILQHG VSLULWXDO FDSDELOLWLHV

 7KH TXRWDWLRQ LV IURP 1DWKDQ 6LYLQ DV FLWHG RQ SDJH  RI &KULVWRSKHU


&XOOHQ
V DUWLFOH ಯ7KH 6FLHQFH7HFKQRORJ\ ,QWHUIDFH LQ 6HYHQWHHQWK&HQWXU\
&KLQD 6RQJ <LQJ[LQJ RQ
TL
DQG WKH
ZX[LQJ
ರ LQ WKH %XOOHWLQ RI WKH 6FKRRO
RI 2ULHQWDO DQG $IULFDQ 6WXGLHV    


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

RI WKHLU KHDUWV DQG PLQGV WKH\ FRXOG DFKLHYH H[WUDRUGLQDU\


WKLQJV 'DRLVWRULHQWHG LQGLYLGXDOV IRU LQVWDQFH FRXOG DWWDLQ
LPPRUWDOLW\ &RQIXFLDQV IRU WKHLU SDUW FRXOG OLWHUDOO\ ಯWUDQV
IRUP SHRSOHರ DQG XOWLPDWHO\ FKDQJH WKH ZRUOG E\ PHDQV RI
ULWXDO UHFWLWXGH DQG PRUDO IRUFH $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH =KRQJ\RQJ
₼ㅇ FRQYHQWLRQDOO\ WUDQVODWHG DV WKH 'RFWULQH RI WKH 0HDQ 
DQ H[WUHPHO\ LQIOXHQWLDO ZRUN LQLWLDOO\ FRPSRVHG LQ WKH ODWH
:DUULQJ 6WDWHV SHULRG WKH NH\ WR &RQIXFLDQ VHOIFXOWLYDWLRQ
ZDV VLQFHULW\ಧWKH PRUDO LQWHJULW\ WKDW HQDEOHV D SHUVRQ WR
EHFRPH IXOO\ GHYHORSHG DV DQ DJHQW RI WKH FRVPRV ಯ6LQFHULW\
LV +HDYHQಬV :D\ DFKLHYLQJ VLQFHULW\ LV WKH :D\ RI KXPDQ
EHLQJV 2QH ZKR LV VLQFHUH DWWDLQV FHQWUDOLW\ ZLWKRXW VWULYLQJ
DSSUHKHQGV ZLWKRXW WKLQNLQJರ 7KH ZRUN JRHV RQ WR DVVHUW
WKDW WKH SHUVRQ ZKR SRVVHVVHV WKH PRVW FRPSOHWH VLQFHULW\
ಯLV DEOH WR JLYH IXOO GHYHORSPHQW WR KLV QDWXUH    DQG WR
WKH QDWXUHV RI RWKHU OLYLQJ WKLQJV %HLQJ DEOH WR JLYH IXOO
GHYHORSPHQW WR WKH QDWXUHV RI RWKHU OLYLQJ WKLQJV KH FDQ
DVVLVW LQ WKH WUDQVIRUPLQJ DQG QRXULVKLQJ SRZHUV RI +HDYHQ
DQG (DUWK    >DQG WKXV@ IRUP D WULDG ZLWK WKHPರ ,Q WKLV YLHZ
D SHUVRQ ZLWK IXOO\ GHYHORSHG VLQFHULW\ FDQ OLWHUDOO\ NQRZ WKH
IXWXUH DQG EH ಯOLNH D VSLULWರ

:KDW WKHQ VKRXOG VXFK D FXOWLYDWHG LQGLYLGXDO GR" 7KH


&RQIXFLDQ DQVZHU ZDV WR GLUHFW RQHಬV VSLULW WRZDUG DFKLHYLQJ
FRVPLF UHVRQDQFHಧWKDW LV D V\PSDWKHWLF YLEUDWLRQ RI TL
DFURVV VSDFH 7KLV FRXOG RI FRXUVH RFFXU EHWZHHQ REMHFWV
WKH ZD\ D SOXFNHG QRWH RQ RQH LQVWUXPHQW UHVRQDWHV ZLWK WKH
VDPH QRWH RQ DQRWKHU LQVWUXPHQW EXW LW FRXOG DOVR RFFXU LQ
WKH PLQGV RI KXPDQ EHLQJV ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV UHVRQDQFH DV D
WKHRU\ RI ಯVLPXOWDQHRXV QRQತOLQHDU FDXVDOLW\ರ ZDV SUHGLFDWHG


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

RQ WKH LGHD WKDW OLNHWKLQJV FRXOG LQIOXHQFH OLNHWKLQJV RQ


D FRVPLF DV ZHOO DV D PLFURFRVPLF VFDOH +XPDQ FRQ
VFLRXVQHVV ZDV WKXV ಯLPSOLFLW LQ DQG VXVFHSWLEOH WR WKH VDPH
SURFHVVHV RI FRVPLF UHVRQDQFH WKDW >PLJKW@ DIIHFW WUHHV LURQ
PDJQHWV DQG OXWH VWULQJVರ ,Q VKRUW KDUPRQ\ SUHYDLOHG ZKHQ
OLNHWKLQJV UHVRQDWHG DQG XQOLNHWKLQJV ZHUH LQ EDODQFH

7KH FRQFHSWV RI \LQ 棿 DQG \DQJ 椌 ZHUH FHQWUDO WR ODWH


=KRX DQG HDUO\ +DQ V\VWHPV RI FRUUHODWLYH WKLQNLQJ 7KH\
ZHUH FRQFHLYHG LQ WKUHH GLIIHUHQW EXW UHODWHG ZD\V )LUVW WKH\
ZHUH YLHZHG DV PRGHV RI FRVPLF FUHDWLYLW\ IHPDOH DQG PDOH
UHVSHFWLYHO\  ZKLFK QRW RQO\ SURGXFHG EXW DOVR DQLPDWHG
DOO QDWXUDO SKHQRPHQD 6HFRQG WKH\ ZHUH XVHG WR LGHQWLI\
UHFXUUHQW F\FOLFDO SDWWHUQV RI ULVH \DQJ DQG GHFOLQH \LQ 
ZD[LQJ \DQJ DQG ZDQLQJ \LQ  7KLUG WKH\ ZHUH HPSOR\HG
DV FRPSDUDWLYH FDWHJRULHV GHVFULELQJ GXDOLVWLF UHODWLRQVKLSV
WKDW ZHUH YLHZHG DV LQKHUHQWO\ XQHTXDO EXW DOPRVW LQYDULDEO\
FRPSOHPHQWDU\ <DQJ IRU H[DPSOH FDPH WR EH DVVRFLDWHG
ZLWK OLJKW DFWLYLW\ +HDYHQ WKH VXQ ILUH KHDW WKH FRORU UHG
DQG URXQGQHVV ZKLOH \LQ ZDV FRUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH (DUWK WKH
PRRQ ZDWHU FROGQHVV WKH FRORU EODFN DQG VTXDUHQHVV DV
ZHOO DV GDUNQHVV DQG SDVVLYLW\

$QRWKHU LPSRUWDQW IHDWXUH RI +DQVW\OH FRUUHODWLYH WKLQNLQJ


WKRXJK VRPHZKDW PRUH SUREOHPDWLFDO LQ WKH PLQGV RI FHUWDLQ
VFKRODUV ZDV DQ HPSKDVLV RQ WKH VRFDOOHG ಯILYH DJHQWVರ
ZX[LQJ ℣嫛 DOVR WUDQVODWHG HOHPHQWV SKDVHV DFWLYLWLHV
HWF  LGHQWLILHG ZLWK WKH EDVLF TXDOLWLHV RU WHQGHQFLHV RI HDUWK
VWDELOLW\  PHWDO VKDUSQHVV  ILUH KHDW  ZDWHU FRROQHVV 
DQG ZRRG JURZWK  /LNH \LQ DQG \DQJ HDFK RI WKH ILYH


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

DJHQWV LQ YDULRXV FRPELQDWLRQV DQG RSHUDWLQJ XQGHU GLIIHUHQW


WHPSRUDO DQG VSDWLDO FLUFXPVWDQFHV KDG WDQJLEOH FRVPLF
SRZHU HPERGLHG LQ RU H[HUWLQJ LQIOXHQFH RQ REMHFWV RI DOO
VRUWV E\ YLUWXH RI WKH V\PSDWKHWLF YLEUDWLRQ RI TL :KHWKHU
FRQVLGHUHG DV H[WHUQDO IRUFHV RU LQWULQVLF TXDOLWLHV \LQ DQG
\DQJ DQG WKH ILYH DJHQWV FRQVWDQWO\ IOXFWXDWHG DQG LQWHUDFWHG
DV SDUW RI WKH HWHUQDO F\FOLFDO UK\WKPV RI QDWXUH (YHU\WKLQJ
GHSHQGHG RQ WLPLQJ DQG WKH UHODWLYH VWUHQJWK RI WKH YDULDEOHV
LQYROYHG %\ WDNLQJ LQWR DFFRXQW WKHVH YDULDEOHV RQH
FRXOG SUHGLFW ZKHWKHU PRYHPHQW ZRXOG EH SURJUHVVLYH RU
UHWURJUHVVLYH IDVW RU VORZ DXVSLFLRXV RU LQDXVSLFLRXV

%\ WKH HDUO\ +DQ SHULRG WKH ILYHDJHQWV KDG FRPH WR EH


FRUUHODWHG ZLWK YDULRXV VHDVRQV GLUHFWLRQV SODQHWV FRORUV
IODYRUV PXVLFDO QRWHV VHQVHV HPRWLRQV RUJDQV JUDLQV
VDFULILFHV SXQLVKPHQWV DQG VR IRUWK 7KH\ ZHUH DOVR
FRUUHODWHG ZLWK GLIIHUHQW VWDWHV RU SKDVHV RI \LQ DQG \DQJ $V
RQH FRQFUHWH EXW UHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH LOOXVWUDWLRQ ZH PD\ ORRN
DW RQH FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI FDOHQGULFDO WLPH ,Q WHUPV RI \LQ DQG
\DQJ WKH \HDU LV GLYLGHG LQWR IRXU SDUWV WZR VROVWLFHV DQG
WZR HTXLQR[HV 7KH ZLQWHU VROVWLFH PDUNV WKH SRLQW RI IXOOHVW
\LQ ZKHQ \DQJ EHJLQV WR HPHUJH RXW RI WKH FROG )URP WKLV
SRLQW RQZDUG \LQ VWDUWV WR GHFOLQH DQG \DQJ LQFUHDVHV $W
WKH VSULQJ HTXLQR[ \LQ DQG \DQJ DUH LQ SHUIHFW EDODQFH 7KH
SURFHVV FRQWLQXHV XQWLO WKH VXPPHU VROVWLFH ZKHQ \DQJ LV DW
LWV DSH[ DQG \LQ LV DW LWV QDGLU 7KHUHDIWHU \DQJ GHFOLQHV DQG
\LQ LQFUHDVHV XQWLO WKH ZLQWHU VROVWLFH ZKHQ WKH F\FOH EHJLQV
DJDLQ

)URP WKH VWDQGSRLQW RI ILYHDJHQWV FRUUHODWLRQV GXULQJ WKH


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

ILUVW PRQWK RI WKH OXQDU FDOHQGDU WKH SRZHU RI ZRRG SUHYDLOV


7KLV FRQWLQXHV XQWLO WKH IRXUWK PRQWK ZKHQ ILUH GRPLQDWHV
7KH VL[WK PRQWK LV UXOHG E\ HDUWK 7KH VHYHQWK HLJKWK DQG
QLQWK PRQWKV DUH FRQWUROOHG E\ PHWDO DQG WKH WHQWK HOHYHQWK
DQG WZHOIWK PRQWKV IDOO XQGHU WKH SUHGRPLQDQW LQIOXHQFH RI
ZDWHU $UPHG ZLWK WKLV VRUW RI FRUUHODWLYH NQRZOHGJH RQH
FRXOG GHWHUPLQH DW DQ\ JLYHQ WLPH RI \HDU ZKLFK GLUHFWLRQV
ZHUH PRVW DXVSLFLRXV ZKLFK SODQHWDU\ FRQILJXUDWLRQV ZHUH
PRVW IDYRUDEOH ZKLFK ULWXDOV VKRXOG EH SHUIRUPHG ZKLFK
IRRGV RIIHULQJV DQG PHGLFLQHV ZHUH PRVW DSSURSULDWH DQG
VR RQ

/LNH \LQ DQG \DQJ WKH ILYHDJHQWV ZRUNHG LQ VHTXHQFHV


EXW WKH RUGHU RI GLVSODFHPHQW LQGLFDWHG DERYH LV VRPHZKDW
XQXVXDO IRU LQ WKH VWDQGDUG ಯPXWXDO FRQTXHVWರ VHTXHQFH RI
WKH ILYH DJHQWV ZDWHU FRQTXHUHG ILUH ILUH FRQTXHUHG PHWDO
PHWDO FRQTXHUHG ZRRG ZRRG FRQTXHUHG HDUWK DQG HDUWK
FRQTXHUHG ZDWHU %\ FRQWUDVW LQ WKH ಯPXWXDO SURGXFWLRQರ
VHTXHQFH ZRRG SURGXFHG ILUH ILUH SURGXFHG HDUWK HDUWK
SURGXFHG PHWDO PHWDO SURGXFHG ZDWHU DQG ZDWHU SURGXFHG
ZRRG 7KHUH KDYH EHHQ PDQ\ H[SODQDWLRQV RI KRZ WKHVH
WZR UHODWHG SURFHVVHV RFFXU LQ QDWXUH VRPH RI ZKLFK DUH
IDLUO\ FRPPRQVHQVLFDO DQG RWKHUV RI ZKLFK LQYROYH D VWUHWFK
RI WKH LPDJLQDWLRQಧIRU LQVWDQFH ZRRG LV VRPHWLPHV VDLG WR
RYHUFRPH HDUWK E\ ಯGLJJLQJ LWರ DV ZLWK D ZRRGHQ VKRYHO 

7KH HLJKW WULJUDPV EDJXD ⏺◵ KDG VLPLODU TXDOLWLHV DQG


FDSDFLWLHV 7KXV IRU LQVWDQFH WKH =KHQ 7KXQGHU WULJUDP
FDXVHG WKLQJV WR PRYH 6XQ :LQG GLVSHUVHG WKLQJV .DQ
:DWHU PRLVWHQHG WKLQJV /L )LUH GULHG WKLQJV *HQ 0RXQ


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

WDLQ FDXVHG WKLQJV WR VWRS 'XL /DNH SOHDVHG WKLQJV 4LDQ


+HDYHQ SURYLGHG JRYHUQDQFH DQG .XQ (DUWK VKHOWHUHG
WKLQJV

h?2 >2`K2M2miB+H _QH2 Q7 i?2 dzh2M qBM;bǴ


7KH PRVW LPSRUWDQW GHYHORSPHQW LQ WKH KLVWRU\ RI WKH
&KDQJHV ZDV WKH DGGLWLRQ RI D VHW RI SRHWLF FRPPHQWDULHV
NQRZQ FROOHFWLYHO\ DV WKH 7HQ :LQJV $V LQGLFDWHG EULHIO\
DERYH WKHVH FRPPHQWDULHV DUH TXLWH KHWHURJHQHRXV LQ
FRQWHQW 7KH ILUVW DQG VHFRQG ZLQJV WRJHWKHU NQRZQ DV WKH
ಯ&RPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH -XGJPHQWVರ 7XDQ]KXDQ ㇥⍂ DQG WKH
WKLUG DQG IRXUWK FROOHFWLYHO\ WLWOHG WKH ಯ&RPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH
,PDJHVರ ;LDQJ]KXDQ 廰⍂ SUREDEO\ GDWH IURP WKH VL[WK
RU ILIWK FHQWXU\ %&( 7KH\ DUH DOPRVW FHUWDLQO\ WKH ROGHVW
V\VWHPDWLF WUHDWLVHV RQ WKH EDVLF WH[W RI WKH &KDQJHV 7KH
&RPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH -XGJPHQWV H[SODLQV HDFK MXGJPHQW
E\ UHIHUULQJ WR LWV SKUDVHV LWV KH[DJUDP V\PEROLVP DQGRU
WKH ORFDWLRQ RI LWV \LQ DQG \DQJ OLQHV 7KH &RPPHQWDU\
RQ WKH ,PDJHV FRQVLVWV RI WZR VXEVHFWLRQV D ಯ%LJ ,PDJH
&RPPHQWDU\ರ ZKLFK GLVFXVVHV WKH LPDJHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK
WKH WZR SULPDU\ WULJUDPV RI HDFK KH[DJUDP OLQHV  DQG
OLQHV  UHVSHFWLYHO\  DQG D ಯ6PDOO ,PDJH &RPPHQWDU\ರ
ZKLFK UHIHUV WR WKH V\PEROLVP RI WKH LQGLYLGXDO OLQHV 7KH WZR
SDUWV RI WKH ಯ*UHDW &RPPHQWDU\ರ 'D]KXDQ ⮶⍂ DOVR NQRZQ
DV WKH ಯ&RPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH $SSHQGHG 6WDWHPHQWVರ ;LFL
]KXDQ 僺戼⍂ DUH JHQHUDOO\ GHVFULEHG DV WKH ILIWK DQG VL[WK
ZLQJV 8VLQJ VRPHZKDW GLIIHUHQW UKHWRULFDO GHYLFHV LQ HDFK
RI LWV WZR VHFWLRQV WKLV FRPPHQWDU\ RIIHUV D VRSKLVWLFDWHG


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

DOWKRXJK VRPHWLPHV UDWKHU GLVMRLQWHG GLVFXVVLRQ RI ERWK WKH


PHWDSK\VLFV DQG WKH PRUDOLW\ RI WKH &KDQJHV RIWHQ FLWLQJ
&RQIXFLXV IRU DXWKRULW\

7KH UHVW RI WKH 7HQ :LQJV ODFN WKH GLYLGHG VWUXFWXUH RI WKH ILUVW
VL[ 7KH ಯ&RPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH :RUGV RI WKH 7H[Wರ :HQ\DQ
]KXDQ 㠖岏⍂ DGGUHVVHV RQO\ WKH ILUVW WZR KH[DJUDPV RI
WKH EDVLF WH[W DQG VRPH VFKRODUV EHOLHYH WKDW LW UHSUHVHQWV
IUDJPHQWV RI D PXFK ORQJHU EXW QR ORQJHU H[WDQW ZRUN 7KH
ಯ([SODLQLQJ WKH 7ULJUDPVರ 6KXRJXD ]KXDQ 崻◵⍂ FRPPHQ
WDU\ DWWDFKHV PHDQLQJV WR HDFK RI WKH HLJKW WULJUDPV WKDW JR
ZHOO EH\RQG WKH EDVLF VLJQLILFDWLRQV WKDW WKH\ SRVVHVVHG LQ
WKH HDUO\ DQG PLGGOH =KRX SHULRG 7KH ZLQJ WLWOHG ಯ3URYLGLQJ
WKH 6HTXHQFH RI WKH +H[DJUDPVರ ;XJXD ]KXDQ ㄞ◵⍂
DLPV DW MXVWLI\LQJ WKH UHFHLYHG RUGHU RI WKH KH[DJUDPV DQG
WKH ODVW WKH ಯ+H[DJUDPV LQ ,UUHJXODU 2UGHUರ =DJXD ]KXDQ
楫◵⍂ RIIHUV GHILQLWLRQV RI KH[DJUDPV WKDW LW RIWHQ FDVWV LQ
WHUPV RI FRQWUDVWLQJ SDLUV 'LIIHUHQW HGLWLRQV RI WKH &KDQJHV
RUJDQL]H WKLV PDWHULDO LQ GLIIHUHQW ZD\V $QG VRPH VFKRODUV
LJQRUHG VRPH ZLQJV FRPSOHWHO\ :DQJ )X]KL  
IRU H[DPSOH UHIXVHG WR DFFHSW WKH OHJLWLPDF\ RI WKH ಯ3URYLGLQJ
WKH 6HTXHQFH RI WKH +H[DJUDPVರ ZLQJ

7KH *UHDW &RPPHQWDU\ LV WKH PRVW SKLORVRSKLFDOO\ LQWHUHVWLQJ


RI WKH 7HQ :LQJV ,W SUREDEO\ DVVXPHG VRPHWKLQJ FORVH WR LWV
ILQDO IRUP DURXQG  %&( DQG IURP WKH +DQ SHULRG WR WKH
SUHVHQW WKLV GRFXPHQW KDV UHFHLYHG IDU PRUH VFKRODUO\ DWWHQ
WLRQ WKDQ DQ\ RWKHU VLQJOH ZLQJ 7KH SULPDU\ JRDO RI WKH *UHDW
&RPPHQWDU\ ZDV WR H[SODLQ KRZ WKH KH[DJUDPV WULJUDPV DQG
OLQHV RI WKH GRFXPHQW GXSOLFDWHG WKH IXQGDPHQWDO SURFHVVHV


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

DQG UHODWLRQVKLSV RFFXUULQJ LQ QDWXUH HQDEOLQJ WKRVH ZKR


FRQVXOW WKH <LMLQJ ZLWK VLQFHULW\ DQG UHYHUHQFH WR SDUWDNH RI D
SRWHQW LOOXPLQDWLQJ DFWLYDWLQJ DQG WUDQVIRUPLQJ VSLULWXDOLW\
%\ SDUWLFLSDWLQJ IXOO\ LQ WKLV VSLULWXDO H[SHULHQFH WKH UHDGHU
FRXOG GLVFHUQ WKH SDWWHUQV RI FKDQJH LQ WKH XQLYHUVH DQG DFW
DSSURSULDWHO\ $V WKH *UHDW &RPPHQWDU\ VWDWHV ಯ/RRNLQJ
XS ZH XVH LW >WKH &KDQJHV@ WR REVHUYH WKH FRQILJXUDWLRQV RI
+HDYHQ DQG ORRNLQJ GRZQ ZH XVH LW WR H[DPLQH WKH SDWWHUQV
RI (DUWK 7KXV ZH XQGHUVWDQG WKH UHDVRQV XQGHUO\LQJ ZKDW LV
KLGGHQ DQG ZKDW LV FOHDU :H WUDFH WKLQJV EDFN WR WKHLU RULJLQV
WKHQ WXUQ EDFN WR WKHLU HQGV 7KXV ZH XQGHUVWDQG WKH D[LRP
RI OLIH DQG GHDWK 7KH &KDQJHV LV ZLWKRXW FRQVFLRXVQHVV
DQG LV ZLWKRXW GHOLEHUDWH DFWLRQ %HLQJ XWWHUO\ VWLOO LW GRHV QRW
LQLWLDWH EXW ZKHQ VWLPXODWHG LW LV FRPPHQVXUDWH ZLWK DOO WKH
FDXVHV IRU HYHU\WKLQJ WKDW KDSSHQV LQ WKH ZRUOG $V VXFK LW
KDV WR EH WKH PRVW VSLULWXDO WKLQJ LQ WKH ZRUOG IRU ZKDW HOVH
FRXOG SRVVLEO\ EH XS WR WKLV"ರ

,Q RWKHU ZRUGV WKH <LMLQJ VKRZHG KRZ KXPDQ EHLQJV FRXOG


ಯILOO LQ DQG SXOO WRJHWKHU WKH 'DR RI +HDYHQ DQG (DUWKರ WKXV
KHOSLQJ WR FUHDWH DQG PDLQWDLQ FRVPLF KDUPRQ\ WKURXJK WKHLU
VSLULWXDO DWWXQHPHQW WR WKH SDWWHUQV DQG SURFHVVHV RI QDWXUH
%\ XVLQJ WKH &KDQJHV UHVSRQVLEO\ KXPDQV FRXOG QRW RQO\
ಯNQRZ IDWHರ ]KLPLQJ 䩴✌ EXW DOVR GR VRPHWKLQJ DERXW LW LH
HVWDEOLVK IDWH OLPLQJ 䵚✌ 

7KH SURFHVV RI FRQVXOWLQJ WKH <LMLQJ LQYROYHG FDUHIXO FRQ


WHPSODWLRQ RI WKH ಯLPDJHVರ [LDQJ 廰 DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DQG
UHIOHFWHG LQ WKH OLQHV WULJUDPV DQG KH[DJUDPV RI WKH EDVLF
WH[W $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH *UHDW &RPPHQWDU\ VDJHV OLNH )X[L


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

↞䔶  ಯKDG WKH PHDQV WR SHUFHLYH WKH P\VWHULHV RI WKH ZRUOG


DQG GUDZLQJ FRPSDULVRQV WR WKHP ZLWK DQDORJRXV WKLQJV
PDGH LPDJHV RXW RI WKRVH WKLQJV WKDW VHHPHG DSSURSULDWHರ
7KXV ZH DUH WROG WKDW ಯWKH &KDQJHV LV >QRWKLQJ EXW@ LPDJHVರ
㢢劔廰⃮ DQG WKDW WKH WHUP ಯLPDJH PHDQV WKH PDNLQJ RI
VHPEODQFHV >RU UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV@ರ 廰⃮劔⍞⃮  6RPHZKDW
LURQLFDOO\ WKH ZRUG ಯLPDJHರ DSSHDUV QRZKHUH LQ WKH EDVLF WH[W
RI WKH <LMLQJ DQG RQO\ WKUHH WLPHV LQ WKH &RPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH
-XGJPHQWV KH[DJUDPV   DQG  

,QLWLDOO\ WKHUH ZHUH RQO\ ಯKH[DJUDP LPDJHVರ JXD[LDQJ ◵廰


ಯWULJUDP LPDJHVರ JXD[LDQJ ◵廰 DQG ಯOLQH LPDJHVರ \DR[LDQJ
䓊廰 ಧSXUH VLJQV XQPHGLDWHG E\ ODQJXDJH %XW ODWHU RQ
KH[DJUDP QDPHV MXGJPHQWV DQG OLQH VWDWHPHQWV DSSHDUHG
LQ ZULWWHQ IRUP WR KHOS H[SODLQ WKHVH DEVWUDFW VLJQLILFDWLRQV
7KXV ZRUGV FDPH WR EH XVHG E\ VXEVHTXHQW ಯVDJHVರ WR
LGHQWLI\ ಯLPDJHV RI WKLQJVರ QDWXUDO SKHQRPHQD VXFK DV
+HDYHQ DQG (DUWK PRXQWDLQV ULYHUV WKXQGHU ZLQG ILUH
HWF  ಯLPDJHV RI DIIDLUVರ VRFLDO DQG SROLWLFDO SKHQRPHQD
LQFOXGLQJ LQVWLWXWLRQV ZDU IDPLQH PDUULDJH GLYRUFH HWF 
DQG ಯLPDJHV RI LGHDVರ WKRXJKWV PHQWDO SLFWXUHV VWDWHV RI
PLQG HPRWLRQV DQG DQ\ RWKHU VHQVRU\ RU H[WUDVHQVRU\
H[SHULHQFHV  6RPH FRPPHQWDWRUV OLNHQHG LPDJHV WR
ಯIORZHUV LQ WKH PLUURUರ RU ಯWKH PRRQ LQ WKH ZDWHUರಧWKDW LV
UHIOHFWLRQV RI WKLQJV WKDW ಯFDQQRW EH GHVFULEHG DV HLWKHU IXOO\
SUHVHQW RU IXOO\ DEVHQWರ

,PDJHV ZHUH DOVR FORVHO\ FRQQHFWHG ZLWK QXPEHUV VKX


㠇 DV D PHDQV E\ ZKLFK WR XQGHUVWDQG SDWWHUQV RI FRVPLF
FKDQJH ,QGHHG WKH *UHDW &RPPHQWDU\ WHOOV XV WKDW LQ


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

FRQMXQFWLRQ ZLWK KH[DJUDPV QXPEHUV ಯLQGLFDWH KRZ FKDQJH


DQG WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ DUH EURXJKW DERXW DQG KRZ JRGV DQG
VSLULWV DUH DFWLYDWHGರ 9DJXH EXW SURYRFDWLYH SDVVDJHV
VXFK DV WKHVH ZRXOG ODWHU LQVSLUH DQ HQRUPRXV DPRXQW RI
VFKRODUVKLS GHVLJQHG WR LGHQWLI\ DQG H[SODLQ WKH FRPSOH[
UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ ಯQXPEHUV DQG LPDJHVರ [LDQJVKX 廰㠇
EXW WKH SULPDU\ IRFXV RI WKH 7HQ :LQJV LV RQ LPDJHV ,Q
IDFW DW FHUWDLQ SRLQWV LQ WKH WH[W WKLV HPSKDVLV VHHPV WR
GLPLQLVK WKH YDOXH RI WKH ZULWWHQ ZRUG LWVHOI )RU H[DPSOH
WKH *UHDW &RPPHQWDU\ DYHUV WKDW ಯ:ULWLQJ GRHV QRW H[KDXVW
ZRUGV DQG ZRUGV GR QRW H[KDXVW LGHDV 7KH VDJHV
>WKHUHIRUH@ HVWDEOLVKHG LPDJHV LQ RUGHU WR H[SUHVV WKHLU LGHDV
H[KDXVWLYHO\ >DQG WKH\@ HVWDEOLVKHG WKH KH[DJUDPV LQ RUGHU
WR WUHDW H[KDXVWLYHO\ WKH WUXH LQQDWH WHQGHQFLHV RI WKLQJVರ

,GHDOO\ WKHQ LI RQH LV DEOH WR JUDVS WKH PHDQLQJ RI WKH LPDJH


ZRUGV EHFRPH XQQHFHVVDU\ ,Q IDFW KRZHYHU WKH DQFLHQW
VDJHV GLG WKHLU IDLU VKDUH RI H[SRVLWLQJ )RU LQVWDQFH WKH
*UHDW &RPPHQWDU\ VWDWHV WKDW ಯ7KH\ >WKH VDJHV@ DSSHQGHG
SKUDVHV WR WKH OLQHV >RI WKH KH[DJUDPV@ LQ RUGHU WR FODULI\
ZKHWKHU WKH\ VLJQLILHG JRRG IRUWXQH RU PLVIRUWXQH DQG
>WKH\@ OHW WKH KDUG >\DQJ@ DQG WKH VRIW >\LQ@ OLQHV GLVSODFH HDFK
RWKHU VR WKDW FKDQJH DQG WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ FRXOG DSSHDUರ

$FFRUGLQJ WR WKLV WH[W JRRG IRUWXQH DQG PLVIRUWXQH LQYROYH


LPDJHV RI IDLOXUH RU VXFFHVV UHVSHFWLYHO\ 5HJUHW DQG
UHPRUVH LQYROYH LPDJHV RI VRUURZ DQG ZRUU\ &KDQJH DQG
WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ LQYROYH LPDJHV RI DGYDQFH DQG ZLWKGUDZDO
,W JRHV RQ WR VD\ ಯ7KH MXGJPHQWV DGGUHVV WKH LPDJHV
>LH WKH FRQFHSW RI WKH HQWLUH KH[DJUDP@ DQG WKH OLQH WH[WV


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

DGGUHVV WKH VWDWHV RI FKDQJH 7KH WHUPV ಫDXVSLFLRXVಬ >ML


⚘@ DQG ಫLQDXVSLFLRXVಬ >[LRQJ ⒅@ DGGUHVV WKH IDLOXUH >VKL ⯀@ RU
VXFFHVV >GH ㈦@ LQYROYHG 7KH WHUPV ಫUHJUHWಬ >KXL ㌣@ DQG
ಫUHPRUVHಬ >OLQ ⚬@ DGGUHVV WKH VPDOO IDXOWV LQYROYHG 7KH
H[SUHVVLRQ ಫWKHUH LV QR EODPHಬ >ZXMLX 䎰✝@ LQGLFDWHV VXFFHVV
DW UHSDLULQJ WUDQVJUHVVLRQV 7KH GLVWLQFWLRQ EHWZHHQ D WHQ
GHQF\ HLWKHU WR WKH SHWW\ RU WR WKH JUHDW LV DQ LQKHUHQW IHDWXUH
RI WKH KH[DJUDPV 7KH GLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ RI JRRG IRUWXQH DQG
PLVIRUWXQH GHSHQGV RQ WKH SKUDVHV >LH WKH OLQH VWDWHPHQWV@ರ

7KH *UHDW &RPPHQWDU\ DOVR WHOOV XV WKDW WKH KH[DJUDPV


ಯUHSURGXFH HYHU\ DFWLRQ WKDW RFFXUV LQ WKH ZRUOGರ DQG DV D
UHVXOW ಯRQFH DQ H[HPSODU\ SHUVRQ ILQGV KLPVHOI LQ D VLWXDWLRQ
KH REVHUYHV LWV LPDJH DQG SRQGHUV WKH SKUDVHV LQYROYHG
DQG RQFH KH WDNHV DFWLRQ KH REVHUYHV WKH FKDQJH >RI WKH
OLQHV@ DQG SRQGHUV WKH SURJQRVWLFDWLRQV LQYROYHG 7KH JRDO RI
WKH H[HPSODU\ SHUVRQ DV :DQJ )X]KL RQFH REVHUYHG ZDV
QRW WR GHWHUPLQH JRRG IRUWXQH DQG PLVIRUWXQH SHU VH EXW
UDWKHU WR NQRZ ಯZKDW WR EH FRQFHUQHG DERXW ZKDW WR KROG LQ
DZH DQG ZKDW FRXUVH RI DFWLRQ WR FKRRVHರ

+RZ GRHV WKH H[HPSODU\ SHUVRQ JR DERXW PDNLQJ VXFK


FKRLFHV" 7KH *UHDW &RPPHQWDU\ SURYLGHV D QXPEHU RI
JXLGHOLQHV ,W LQGLFDWHV IRU H[DPSOH WKDW ಯ7KH ILUVW OLQHV
>RI D KH[DJUDP@ DUH GLIILFXOW WR XQGHUVWDQG EXW WKH WRS
OLQHV DUH HDV\ EHFDXVH WKH\ DUH WKH URRWV DQG EUDQFKHV
UHVSHFWLYHO\ >LH WKH RULJLQV DQG HQGLQJV@ 7KH VHFRQG
OLQHV >RI D KH[DJUDP@ XVXDOO\ FRQFHUQ KRQRU ZKLOH WKH
IRXUWK OLQHV XVXDOO\ FRQFHUQ IHDU 7KH WKLUG OLQHV XVXDOO\
FRQFHUQ PLVIRUWXQH ZKLOH WKH ILIWK OLQHV XVXDOO\ FRQFHUQ


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

DFKLHYHPHQWರ ,W DOVR LQGLFDWHV WKDW WKH WKUHH RGGQXPEHUHG


\DQJ WULJUDPVಧ=KHQ .DQ DQG *HQಧHDFK RI ZKLFK KDV
RQH ಯVRYHUHLJQರ DQG WZR ಯVXEMHFWVರ LH RQH VROLG OLQH DQG
WZR XQEURNHQ OLQHV  VKRZ WKH ZD\ RI WKH H[HPSODU\ SHUVRQ
ZKLOH WKH WKUHH HYHQQXPEHUHG \LQ WULJUDPVಧ6XQ /L DQG
'XLಧHDFK RI ZKLFK KDV WZR ಯVRYHUHLJQVರ DQG RQH ಯVXEMHFWರ
LH WZR VROLG OLQHV DQG RQH XQEURNHQ OLQH  LOOXVWUDWH WKH ZD\
RI WKH LQIHULRU SHUVRQ

)XUWKHUPRUH WKH *UHDW &RPPHQWDU\ VXJJHVWV ZD\V WR


LQWHUSUHW KH[DJUDPV WKDW DUH QRW QHFHVVDULO\ HYLGHQW LQ WKHLU
MXGJPHQWV OLQHV RU WULJUDP UHODWLRQVKLSV 7KXV IRU H[DPSOH
ZH UHDG WKDW

6XQ >ಯ&RPSOLDQFHರ QXPEHU @ GHPRQVWUDWHV


KRZ RQH FDQ ZHLJK WKLQJV ZKLOH \HW UHPDLQLQJ LQ
REVFXULW\ /¾ >ಯ7UHDGLQJರ QXPEHU @ SURYLGHV
WKH PHDQV WR PDNH RQHಬV DFWLRQV KDUPRQLRXV
4LDQ >ಯ0RGHVW\ರ QXPEHU @ SURYLGHV WKH PHDQV
E\ ZKLFK GHFRUXP H[HUFLVHV LWV FRQWURO )X
>ಯ5HWXUQರ QXPEHU @ SURYLGHV WKH PHDQV WR
NQRZ RQHVHOI +HQJ >ಯ3HUVHYHUDQFHರ QXPEHU
@ SURYLGHV WKH PHDQV WR NHHS RQHಬV YLUWXH ZKROH
DQG LQWDFW 6XQ >ಯ'LPLQXWLRQ QXPEHU @ SURYLGHV
WKH PHDQV WR NHHS KDUP DW D GLVWDQFH <L
>ಯ,QFUHDVHರ QXPEHU @ SURYLGHV WKH PHDQV
WR SURPRWH EHQHILWV .XQ >ಯ,PSDVVHರ QXPEHU
@ SURYLGHV WKH PHDQV WR NHHS UHVHQWPHQWV IHZ
-LQJ >ಯ7KH :HOOರ QXPEHU @ SURYLGHV WKH PHDQV
WR GLVWLQJXLVK ZKDW ULJKWHRXVQHVV UHDOO\ LV 6XQ
>ಯ&RPSOLDQFHರ QXPEHU @ SURYLGHV WKH PHDQV WR


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

SUDFWLFH LPSURYLVDWLRQV

6RPHWLPHV WKH *UHDW &RPPHQWDU\ RUJDQL]HV KH[DJUDPV DF


FRUGLQJ WR WKHPHV VXFK DV WKH IROORZLQJ FOXVWHU SHUWDLQLQJ WR
YLUWXH GH ㉆  /¾z ಯ7UHDGLQJರ QXPEHU  ಯLV WKH IRXQGDWLRQ
RI YLUWXHರ 4LDQ ಯ0RGHVW\ರ QXPEHU  ಯLV KRZ YLUWXH SUR
YLGHV D KDQGOH RQ WKLQJVರ )X ಯ5HWXUQರ QXPEHU  ಯLV WKH
URRW RI YLUWXHರ +HQJ ಯ3HUVHYHUDQFHರ QXPEHU  ಯSURYLGHV
YLUWXH ZLWK VWHDGIDVWQHVVರ 6XQ ಯ'LPLQXWLRQ QXPEHU  ಯLV
KRZ YLUWXH LV FXOWLYDWHGರ <L ಯ,QFUHDVHರ QXPEHU  ಯLV KRZ
YLUWXH SUROLIHUDWHVರ .XQ ಯ,PSDVVHರ QXPEHU  ಯLV WKH FUL
WHULRQ IRU GLVWLQJXLVKLQJ YLUWXHರ -LQJ ಯ7KH :HOOರ QXPEHU 
ಯLV WKH JURXQG IURP ZKLFK YLUWXH VSULQJVರ 6XQ ಯ&RPSOLDQFHರ
QXPEHU  LV WKH FRQWUROOHU RI YLUWXH

(VVHQWLDO WR WKH SURFHVV RI FRQVXOWLQJ WKH <LMLQJ ZDV DQ DFXWH


DWWXQHPHQW WR WKH VHPLQDO ILUVW VWLUULQJV RI FKDQJH ZKLFK DI
IRUG WKH RSSRUWXQLW\ IRU DFWLQJ DSSURSULDWHO\ DW WKH PRVW SURSL
WLRXV DQG HIILFDFLRXV WLPH 7KH WHFKQLFDO WHUP LQ WKH <LMLQJ IRU
WKLV PRPHQW LV ಯLQFLSLHQFHರ ML 㳮 RIWHQ GHVFULEHG PHWDSKRU
LFDOO\ DV D GRRU KLQJH WULJJHU RU SLYRW ಧWKDW ಯLQILQLWHVLPDOO\
VPDOO EHJLQQLQJ RI DFWLRQ WKH SRLQW DW ZKLFK WKH SUHFRJQLWLRQ
RI JRRG IRUWXQH FDQ RFFXUರ 2QFH DJDLQ LQ WKH ZRUGV RI WKH
*UHDW &RPPHQWDU\ ಯ,W LV E\ PHDQV RI WKH &KDQJHV WKDW WKH
VDJHV SOXPE WKH XWPRVW SURIXQGLW\ DQG GLJ LQWR WKH YHU\ LQFLS
LHQFH RI WKLQJV ,W LV SURIXQGLW\ DORQH WKDW WKXV DOORZV RQH WR
SHQHWUDWH WKH DVSLUDWLRQV RI DOO WKH SHRSOH LQ WKH ZRUOG LW LV D
JUDVS RI LQFLSLHQFH DORQH WKDW WKXV DOORZV RQH WR DFFRPSOLVK
WKH JUHDW DIIDLUV RI WKH ZRUOGರ


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

,Q VKRUW E\ YLUWXH RI WKHLU VSLULWXDO FDSDELOLWLHV DQG FRPSUH


KHQVLYH V\PEROLVP WKH VL[W\IRXU KH[DJUDPV RI WKH <LMLQJ
SURYLGHG WKH PHDQV E\ ZKLFK WR XQGHUVWDQG DOO SKHQRPHQD
LQFOXGLQJ WKH IRUFHV RI QDWXUH WKH LQWHUDFWLRQ RI WKLQJV DQG
WKH FLUFXPVWDQFHV RI FKDQJH /LNH \LQ DQG \DQJ WKH ILYH
DJHQWV WKH HLJKW WULJUDPV DQG RWKHU FRVPLF YDULDEOHV WKH\
ZHUH DOZD\V LQ WKH SURFHVV RI WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ EXW DW DQ\
JLYHQ WLPH WKH\ DOVR UHYHDOHG TXDOLWLHV DQG FDSDFLWLHV

/HW XV QRZ ORRN DJDLQ DW WKH *HQ KH[DJUDP WR VHH DQ


H[DPSOH RI RQH ZD\ LQ ZKLFK WKH 7HQ :LQJV LQIOXHQFHG
&KDQJHV H[HJHVLV DQG GLYLQDWLRQ %\ WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI WKH
+DQ G\QDVW\ LI QRW ZHOO EHIRUH WKH HDUO\ =KRX G\QDVW\ LGHD
WKDW *HQ PLJKW PHDQ ಯWR FOHDYHರ RU ಯWR JODUH DWರ KDG JLYHQ ZD\
WR D YHU\ GLIIHUHQW FRQFHSWLRQ 1RZ WKH GRPLQDQW PHDQLQJV
DWWDFKHG WR WKH *HQ KH[DJUDP KDG WR GR ZLWK ಯVWLOOQHVVರ
ಯUHVWUDLQWರ DQG ಯVWDELOLW\ರ %HORZ LV D UHQGHULQJ RI WKH EDVLF
WH[W EDVHG RQ D +DQ G\QDVW\ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WRJHWKHU ZLWK
YDULRXV FRPPHQWDULHV GUDZQ IURP WKH 7HQ :LQJV

)LJXUH  *HQ

-XGJPHQW 5HVWUDLQW >RU 6WLOOLQJ@ WDNHV SODFH ZLWK WKH EDFN


VR WKH SHUVRQ LQ TXHVWLRQ GRHV QRW REWDLQ WKH RWKHU SHUVRQ
+H JRHV LQWR WKDW RQHಬV FRXUW\DUG EXW GRHV QRW VHH KLP WKHUH


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

7KHUH LV QR EODPH

&RPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH -XGJPHQW *HQ PHDQV


ಯVWRSರ :KHQ LW LV WLPH WR VWRS RQH VKRXOG VWRS
ZKHQ LW LV WLPH WR DFW RQH VKRXOG DFW ,I LQ RQHಬV
DFWLYLW\ DQG UHSRVH KH LV QRW RXW RI VWHS ZLWK WKH
WLPHV KLV 'DR VKRXOG EH EULJKW DQG JORULRXV /HW
5HVWUDLQW RSHUDWH ZKHUH UHVWUDLQW VKRXOG WDNH
SODFH WKDW LV OHW WKH UHVWUDLQLQJ EH GRQH LQ LWV
SURSHU SODFH 7KRVH DERYH DQG WKRVH EHORZ
VWDQG LQ UHFLSURFDO RSSRVLWLRQ WR HDFK RWKHU DQG
VR GR QRW JHW DORQJ 7KLV LV WKH UHDVRQ ZK\
DOWKRXJK ಯRQH GRHV QRW REWDLQ WKH RWKHU SHUVRQರ
DQG ಯRQH JRHV LQWR RQHಬV FRXUW\DUG EXW GRHV QRW
VHH KLP WKHUH \HW ಯWKHUH LV QR EODPHರ
&RPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH ,PDJHV 8QLWHG PRXQWDLQV
>LH GRXEOHG *HQ WULJUDPV@ WKLV FRQVWLWXWHV
WKH LPDJH RI 5HVWUDLQW ,Q WKH VDPH ZD\ WKH
H[HPSODU\ SHUVRQ LV PLQGIXO RI KRZ KH VKRXOG QRW
JR RXW RI KLV SRVLWLRQ
/LQH  5HVWUDLQW WDNHV SODFH ZLWK WKH WRHV VR WKHUH LV QR
EODPH DQG LW LV ILWWLQJ WKDW WKH SHUVRQ LQ TXHVWLRQ SUDFWLFHV
SHUSHWXDO SHUVHYHUDQFH
&RPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH ,PDJHV ,I ಯ5HVWUDLQW WDNHV
SODFH ZLWK WKH WRHVರ RQH VKDOO QHYHU YLRODWH WKH
ERXQGV RI UHFWLWXGH >RU ಯVWUD\ RII WKH FRUUHFW SDWKರ@
/LQH  5HVWUDLQW WDNHV SODFH ZLWK WKH FDOYHV ZKLFK PHDQV
WKDW WKH SHUVRQ LQ TXHVWLRQ GRHV QRW UDLVH XS >LH UHVFXH@ KLV
IROORZHUV +LV KHDUW IHHOV GLVFRQWHQW


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

&RPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH ,PDJHV ಯ7KH SHUVRQ LQ TXHV


WLRQ GRHV QRW UDLVH XS KLV IROORZHUV QRU GRHV KH
ZLWKGUDZ DQG REH\ WKH FDOOರ
/LQH  5HVWUDLQW WDNHV SODFH ZLWK WKH PLGVHFWLRQ ZKLFK PD\
VSOLW WKH IOHVK DW WKH EDFNERQH  D GDQJHU HQRXJK WR VPRNH
DQG VXIIRFDWH WKH KHDUW
&RPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH ,PDJHV ,I ಯ5HVWUDLQW WDNHV
SODFH ZLWK WKH PLGVHFWLRQರ WKH GDQJHU ZRXOG
ಯVPRNH DQG VXIIRFDWH WKH KHDUWರ
/LQH  5HVWUDLQW WDNHV SODFH ZLWK WKH WRUVR 7KHUH LV QR
EODPH
&RPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH ,PDJHV ಯ5HVWUDLQW WDNHV
SODFH ZLWK WKH WRUVRರ ZKLFK PHDQV WKDW WKH SHUVRQ
LQ TXHVWLRQ DSSOLHV UHVWUDLQW WR KLV RZQ ERG\
/LQH  5HVWUDLQW WDNHV SODFH ZLWK WKH MRZOV VR WKH ZRUGV RI
WKH SHUVRQ LQ TXHVWLRQ DUH RUGHUHG DQG UHJUHW YDQLVKHV
&RPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH ,PDJHV ಯ5HVWUDLQW WDNHV
SODFH ZLWK WKH MRZOVರ VR WKH SHUVRQ LQ TXHVWLRQ LV
FHQWUDO DQG FRUUHFW
/LQH  7KH SHUVRQ LQ TXHVWLRQ H[HUFLVHV 5HVWUDLQW ZLWK VLPSOH
KRQHVW\ ZKLFK UHVXOWV LQ JRRG IRUWXQH
&RPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH ,PDJHV 7KH JRRG IRUWXQH
WKDW VSULQJV IURP ಯH[HUFLVLQJ 5HVWUDLQW ZLWK VLPSOH
KRQHVW\ರ PHDQV WKDW RQH ZLOO UHDFK KLV SURSHU
HQG EHFDXVH RI WKDW VLPSO\ KRQHVW\
 9DULDQW FKDUDFWHUV LQ WKH 0DZDQJGXL YHUVLRQ RI WKLV OLQH VXJJHVW WKH
LGHD RI ಯVFUDWFKLQJ WKH VSLQHರ UDWKHU WKDQ ಯVSOLWWLQJ WKH EDFN IOHVKರ


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

$OWKRXJK WKHVH JORVVHV IURP WKH 7HQ :LQJV FHUWDLQO\ GLG QRW
UHVROYH DOO DPELJXLWLHV RU HOLPLQDWH DOO IXWXUH FRQWURYHUVLHV
UHJDUGLQJ WKH SRVVLEOH PHDQLQJV RI *HQಬV MXGJPHQW DQG
OLQH VWDWHPHQWV WKH\ GLG XQGHUVFRUH D UDGLFDO LQWHUSUHWLYH
VKLIW WKDW WUDQVIRUPHG WKH *HQ KH[DJUDP IURP DQ DSSDUHQW
GHVFULSWLRQ RI D ULWXDOL]HG VDFULILFH WR D VHW RI SUHVFULSWLRQV IRU
VHOI FRQWURO DQG HWKLFDO EHKDYLRU

,Q VKRUW WKH 7HQ :LQJV RI WKH <LMLQJ HYHQ ZLWKRXW WKH


DOWHUQDWLYH UHDGLQJV SURYLGHG E\ WKH 0DZDQJGXL PDQXVFULSW
DQG RWKHU YHUVLRQV RI WKH &KDQJHV YDVWO\ HQKDQFHG LWV
V\PEROLF UHSHUWRLUH $OWKRXJK WKH FRQWHQW RI WKH FODVVLF
EHFDPH ಯIL[HGರ LQ  %&( IRU WKH QH[W WZR WKRXVDQG
\HDUV VFKRODUV DQG GLYLQHUV HQMR\HG DQ HQRUPRXV DPRXQW
RI ODWLWXGH LQ LQWHUSUHWLQJ WKH ZRUN ,Q WKH PHDQWLPH WKH
*UHDW &RPPHQWDU\ EHFDPH WKH ORFXV FODVVLFXV IRU YLUWXDOO\
DOO &KLQHVH GLVFXVVLRQV RI WLPH VSDFH DQG PHWDSK\VLFV
LQYHVWLQJ WKH <LMLQJ ZLWK H[WUDRUGLQDU\ SKLORVRSKLFDO DXWKRULW\
,Q DGGLWLRQ WKLV DPSOLILHG DQG VWDWHVDQFWLRQHG YHUVLRQ RI
WKH &KDQJHV EHFDPH D UHSRVLWRU\ RI FRQFUHWH V\PEROV DQG
JHQHUDO H[SODQDWLRQV WKDW SURYHG VHUYLFHDEOH LQ VXFK GLYHUVH
UHDOPV RI NQRZOHGJH DV DUW OLWHUDWXUH PXVLF PDWKHPDWLFV
VFLHQFH DQG PHGLFLQH

Pi?2` >M@"b2/ >2`K2M2miB+b


$SSURDFKHV WR WKH <LMLQJಧZKHWKHU VFKRODUO\ RU GLYLQD
WRU\ಧKDYH QDWXUDOO\ KLQJHG RQ IDFWRUV VXFK DV SKLORVRSKLFDO
RU UHOLJLRXV DIILOLDWLRQV LQWHOOHFWXDO IDVKLRQV SROLWLFV VRFLDO


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

VWDWXV JHQGHU SHUVRQDO WDVWH IDPLO\ WLHV DQG RWKHU YDULDEOHV


RI WLPH SODFH DQG FLUFXPVWDQFH $V &KLQHVH VRFLHW\ HYROYHG
QHZ ZD\V RI WKLQNLQJ DERXW WKH FODVVLF DURVH LQH[RUDEO\
H[SDQGLQJ WKH VFRSH RI LQWHUSUHWLYH SRVVLELOLWLHV WR LQFOXGH
YLUWXDOO\ HYHU\ HPHUJLQJ UHDOP RI NQRZOHGJH 7KXV RYHU
WKH FRXUVH RI PRUH WKDQ WZR PLOOHQQLD WKRXVDQGV RI FRP
PHQWDULHV ZHUH ZULWWHQ RQ WKH &KDQJHV HDFK DPSOLI\LQJ WKH
WH[W DQG HDFK UHIOHFWLQJ D GLVWLQFWLYH WHFKQLFDO SKLORORJLFDO
UHOLJLRXV SKLORVRSKLFDO OLWHUDU\ VRFLDO RU SROLWLFDO SRLQW RI
YLHZ 1RW VXUSULVLQJO\ WKHQ WKH GRFXPHQW FDPH WR EH
LGHQWLILHG E\ D QXPEHU RI &KLQHVH VFKRODUV DV D ಯPLUURU RI
KLVWRU\ರ DV ZHOO DV WKH ಯPLUURU RI PHQಬV PLQGVರ

7KH VRFDOOHG 1HZ 7H[W MLQZHQ ⅙㠖 VFKRODUV RI WKH HDUO\


+DQ SHULRG VRXJKW LQ SDUWLFXODU WR LGHQWLI\ FRUUHVSRQGHQFHV
EHWZHHQ WKH YDULRXV IHDWXUHV RI WKH QDWXUDO ZRUOG ERWK
SK\VLFDO DQG PHWDSK\VLFDO DQG WKH KH[DJUDPV WULJUDPV DQG
LQGLYLGXDO OLQHV RI WKH &KDQJHV 7KHVH FRUUHVSRQGHQFHV
RIWHQ LQYROYHG QXPHULFDO FRUUHODWLRQV VLQFHಧDV ZLWK WKH
3\WKDJRUHDQV LQ DQFLHQW *UHHFHಧQXPEHUV SURYLGHG FRVPR
ORJLFDOO\ LQFOLQHG LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWK D V\VWHPDWLF H[SODQDWLRQ
RI WKH XQLYHUVH DQG LWV PRYHPHQWV 7KH\ SURYLGHG D ZD\
RI ಯGRPHVWLFDWLQJರ QDWXUH RI VXEPLWWLQJ LW WR WKH SUHPRGHUQ
HTXLYDOHQW RI HTXDWLRQV )URP D SUDFWLFDO VWDQGSRLQW DQ XQ
GHUVWDQGLQJ RI QXPEHUV HQDEOHG KXPDQ EHLQJV WR GHWHUPLQH
KRZ EHVW WR VLWXDWH WKHPVHOYHV LQ D KDUPRQLRXV UHODWLRQVKLS
ZLWK WKHLU HQYLURQPHQW


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

$FFRUGLQJ WR WKH *UHDW &RPPHQWDU\ ZKHQ QXPEHUV DUH


FRPELQHG LQ YDULRXV ZD\V WKH\ ಯH[KDXVW DOO DVSHFWV RI
FKDQJHರ WKXV D PDVWHU\ RI QXPEHUV HQDEOHV RQH ಯWR NQRZ
WKH IXWXUHರ )RU WKLV UHDVRQ D VLJQLILFDQW DPRXQW RI WKLV
FRPPHQWDU\ LV GHYRWHG WR YDULRXV QXPHURORJLFDO GLVFXVVLRQV
)RU LQVWDQFH ZH DUH WROG WKDW WKH QXPEHUV RI +HDYHQ DUH
RQH WKUHH ILYH VHYHQ DQG QLQH DOO \DQJ QXPEHUV DQG
WKH QXPEHUV RI (DUWK DUH WZR IRXU VL[ HLJKW DQG WHQ DOO
\LQ QXPEHUV  7KH VXP RI WKH ILYH +HDYHQO\ QXPEHUV LV
WZHQW\ILYH DQG WKH VXP RI WKH ILYH (DUWKO\ QXPEHUV LV WKLUW\
WRJHWKHU WKH\ FRPH WR ILIW\ILYH 7KH *UHDW &RPPHQWDU\
DOVR GHVFULEHV LQ GHWDLO D PHWKRG IRU GLYLQLQJ ZLWK ILIW\ PLOIRLO
VWDONV WKDW LQYROYHV GLYLGLQJ WKH VWDONV LQWR QXPHULFDO JURXSV
WKDW V\PEROL]H \LQ DQG \DQJ WZR  +HDYHQ (DUWK DQG 0DQ
WKUHH DQG WKH VHDVRQV IRXU  ,W LV HDV\ HQRXJK WR LPDJLQH
KRZ WKHVH QXPEHUV ERWK DORQH DQG LQ FRPELQDWLRQ FDPH
WR EH FRUUHODWHG ZLWK DOO NLQGV RI SKHQRPHQD IURP PXVLFDO
QRWHV DQG KHDYHQO\ ERGLHV WR GLYLVLRQV RI WLPH DQG VSDFH
6XFK FRUUHODWLRQV UHYHDOHG FRVPLF FRQQHFWLRQVಧVSLULWXDO
UHVRQDQFHV WKDW H[LVWHG EHWZHHQ OLNH WKLQJV $V VXFK WKH\
H[SODLQHG KRZ WKH XQLYHUVH RSHUDWHG DQG PRUH LPSRUWDQWO\
KRZ LW FRXOG EH PDQLSXODWHG

1HZ 7H[W VFKRODUVKLS PDUNHG WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI ZKDW ZRXOG


EHFRPH NQRZQ DV WKH 6FKRRO RI ,PDJHV DQG 1XPEHUV
[LDQJVKX 廰㠇  LQ FRQWUDVW WR ZKDW EHFDPH NQRZQ DV WKH
6FKRRO RI 0HDQLQJV DQG 3ULQFLSOHV \LOL 券䚕  7KH IRUPHU
VFKRRO HPSKDVL]HG PDWKHPDWLFDO FDOFXODWLRQV DQG FRUUHOD
WLRQV RI WKH VRUW GHVFULEHG DERYH WKH ODWWHU ZDV PRUH FORVHO\
DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK VRFDOOHG 2OG 7H[W JXZHQ ♳㠖 VRXUFHV


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

DQG LWV H[SRQHQWV SDLG SULPDU\ DWWHQWLRQ WR ZKDW WKH\ VDZ


DV WKH ಯPRUDOರ FRQWHQW RI WKH MXGJPHQWV OLQH VWDWHPHQWV DQG
FRPPHQWDULHV WR WKH &KDQJHV

2QH RI WKH PRVW LQIOXHQWLDO HDUO\ LQWHUSUHWHUV RI WKH <LMLQJ


ZDV -LQJ )DQJ ℻㓎  %&(  .QRZQ SULPDULO\ DV D
GLYLQDWLRQ VSHFLDOLVW EXW DOVR LGHQWLILHG DV DQ H[SRQHQW RI
1HZ 7H[W VFKRODUVKLS DQG DQ DGYRFDWH RI WKH ,PDJHV DQG
1XPEHUV DSSURDFK WR WKH &KDQJHV KH KDV EHHQ FUHGLWHG
ZLWK LQYHQWLQJ DQGRU SRSXODUL]LQJ VHYHUDO FDOHQGULFDOO\
EDVHG VFKHPHV IRU OLQNLQJ SKDVHV RI FKDQJH ZLWK PDUNHUV RI
WLPH 7KHVH V\VWHPV LQYROYHG FRUUHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ \LQ DQG
\DQJ WKH ILYH DJHQWV WKH HLJKW WULJUDPV DQG WKH VL[W\IRXU
KH[DJUDPV RQ WKH RQH KDQG DQG XQLWV RI VSDFH DQGRU WLPH
DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH WHQ KHDYHQO\ VWHPV DQG WZHOYH HDUWKO\
EUDQFKHV RSHUDWLQJ HLWKHU LQGLYLGXDOO\ RU LQ FRPELQDWLRQ  WKH
WZHQW\IRXU VHJPHQWV RI WKH VRODU \HDU DQG WKH WZHQW\HLJKW
OXQDU ORGJHV RQ WKH RWKHU

-LQJ )DQJ LV DOVR IDPRXV IRU GHYHORSLQJ VHYHUDO LQWHUSUHWLYH


GHYLFHV WKDW KDYH UHPDLQHG LQIOXHQWLDO LQ WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH
<LMLQJ XS WR WKH SUHVHQW GD\ 2QH RI WKHVH LV WKH LGHD RI
ಯPDWFKLQJ SRVLWLRQVರ GDQJZHL 䠅⇜  DQRWKHU LV WKH QRWLRQ RI
ಯQXFOHDU WULJUDPVರ KXJXD ℡◵ DOVR NQRZQ DV ಯLQWHUORFNLQJರ
RU ಯRYHUODSSLQJರ WULJUDPVರ  0DWFKLQJ SRVLWLRQV UHIHUV WR
\DQJ VROLG RGGQXPEHUHG OLQHV WKDW RFFXS\ RGGQXPEHUHG
SODFHV LQ D KH[DJUDP DQG \LQ EURNHQ HYHQQXPEHUHG OLQHV
WKDW UHVW LQ HYHQQXPEHUHG SODFHV 2QO\ RQH KH[DJUDP -LLML
ಯ)HUU\LQJ &RPSOHWHರ QXPEHU   KDV ಯPDWFKLQJರ OLQHV LQ
DOO VL[ SRVLWLRQV DQG RQO\ RQH :HLML ಯ)HUU\LQJ ,QFRPSOHWHರ


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

QXPEHU   KDV QR PDWFKLQJ OLQHV DW DOO VHH EHORZ 


%HFDXVH DOO RI LWV OLQHV DUH LQ WKHLU ಯFRUUHFWರ SRVLWLRQV WKH -LML
KH[DJUDP LV JHQHUDOO\ YLHZHG DV KLJKO\ IDYRUDEOH LQGLFDWLYH
RI VWDELOLW\ FXOWXUDO GHYHORSPHQW DQG SHUVRQDO UHILQHPHQW
1RQHWKHOHVV WKH &RPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH -XGJPHQW ZDUQV WKDW
DOWKRXJK WKH \DQJ DQG \LQ OLQHV RI WKH KH[DJUDP ಯEHKDYH
FRUUHFWO\ರ LI RQH FHDVHV WR SUDFWLFH FRQVWDQF\ DQG QR ORQJHU
IROORZV D ಯPLGGOH SDWKರ FKDRV ZLOO HQVXH

)LJXUH  -LML )LJXUH  :HLML

*HQHUDOO\ VSHDNLQJ KH[DJUDPV ZLWK OLQHV LQ ಯFRUUHFWರ


SRVLWLRQV DUH FRQVLGHUHG DXVSLFLRXV DOWKRXJK QRW LQYDULDEO\
2SSRVLWH OLQHV WKDW RFFXS\ DQDORJRXV \LQ\DQJ SRVLWLRQV LQ
WKH ORZHU RU ಯLQQHUರ DQG XSSHU RU ಯRXWHUರ SULPDU\ WULJUDPV
OLQHV   DQG  DQG OLQHV   DQG  UHVSHFWLYHO\ DUH
JHQHUDOO\ YLHZHG DV KDYLQJ D SDUWLFXODUO\ FORVH DQG IDYRUDEOH
UHODWLRQVKLS RU ಯFRUUHVSRQGHQFHರಧHVS WKH OLQHV LQ WKH
VHFRQG DQG ILIWK SODFH ZKLFK IURP WKH VWDQGSRLQW RI SRVLWLRQ


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

UHSUHVHQW UHVSHFWLYHO\ WKH ಯFRUUHFWರ UHODWLRQVKLS RI RIILFLDO WR


UXOHU VRQ WR IDWKHU DQG ZLIH WR KXVEDQG

7KH QXFOHDU WULJUDP DSSURDFK WR WKH &KDQJHV SURYHG WR


EH DQ HVSHFLDOO\ XVHIXO GHYLFH IRU RSHQLQJ XS LQWHUSUHWLYH
SRVVLELOLWLHV ,W ZDV EDVHG RQ WKH LGHD WKDW HYHU\ KH[DJUDP
KDV LQ DGGLWLRQ WR LWV WZR SULPDU\ WULJUDPV OLQHV   DQG
 DQG OLQHV   DQG  UHVSHFWLYHO\  WZR RYHUODSSLQJ
WULJUDPV FRPSULVHG RI OLQHV   DQG  DQG OLQHV   DQG 
UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KHVH QXFOHDU WULJUDPV LQ FRPELQDWLRQ \LHOG
DQRWKHU UHODWHG KH[DJUDP ,Q )LJXUH  DERYH IRU H[DPSOH
WKH SULPDU\ WULJUDPV RI -LML DUH /L ಯ)LUHರ EHORZ DQG .DQ
ಯ:DWHUರ DERYH 7KLV WULJUDP V\PEROLVP LQGLFDWHV DW WKH
PRVW UXGLPHQWDU\ OHYHO WKH LGHD RI D FRQJHQLDO EDODQFH RI
HOHPHQWV IRU LQVWDQFH ZDWHU LQ D NHWWOH EHLQJ KHDWHG E\ D
IODPH ಧZKLFK LV DOVR WKH JHQHUDOO\ SRVLWLYH FRQQRWDWLRQ RI WKH
-LML KH[DJUDP DV D ZKROH %\ FRQWUDVW DOWKRXJK WKH QXFOHDU
WULJUDPV RI -LML DUH WKH VDPH DV WKH SULPDU\ WULJUDPV /L DQG
.DQ  WKHLU SRVLWLRQV DUH UHYHUVHG ZLWK .DQ DW WKH ERWWRP
DQG /L RQ WRS  VXJJHVWLQJ WKH QRWLRQ RI LPEDODQFH DV IRU
H[DPSOH ZKHQ ZDWHU LQ D NHWWOH ERLOV RYHU DQG H[WLQJXLVKHV
WKH IODPH  7KH KH[DJUDP SURGXFHG E\ WKHVH WZR QXFOHDU
WULJUDPV LV ಯ)HUU\LQJ ,QFRPSOHWHರ QXPEHU   IRU ZKLFK WKH
&RPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH ,PDJHV H[SOLFLWO\ FRXQVHOV WKH QHHG IRU
WKH H[HPSODU\ SHUVRQ WR SXW WKLQJV LQ SURSHU RUGHU

/DWHU +DQ VFKRODUV VXFK DV =KHQJ ;XDQ 掼䘓  &( 


;XQ 6KXDQJ 嗏䓌  &( DQG <X )DQ 壭劊 
&( HPEUDFHG PRVW RI WKH 1HZ 7H[W LGHDV GLVFXVVHG DERYH
%XW WKH\ DOVR PDGH WKHLU RZQ GLVWLQFWLYH FRQWULEXWLRQV WR WKH


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

DOUHDG\ VXEVWDQWLDO LQWHUSUHWLYH UHSHUWRLUH RI WKH &KDQJHV


=KHQJ IRU H[DPSOH GHYHORSHG D ZD\ RI DQDO\]LQJ WKH
LQGLYLGXDO OLQHV RI D KH[DJUDP LQ VXFK D IDVKLRQ WKDW WKH\
FRXOG UHIHU WR WULJUDPV WKDW ZHUH QRW DFWXDOO\ SUHVHQW LQ WKH
KH[DJUDP V XQGHU FRQVLGHUDWLRQ =KHQJಬV QDPH KDV DOVR
EHHQ FORVHO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK D QXPEHU RI <LMLQJUHODWHG
ಯDSRFU\SKDOರ WH[WV WKDW HPSOR\ FDOHQGULFDO DQG QXPHURORJLFDO
PHWKRGV IRU SUHGLFWLYH SXUSRVHV 2QH RI WKHVH 2SHQLQJ 8S
WKH 5HJXODULWLHV RI 4LDQ 4LDQ ]DR GX ℍ朎ㄵ DND 4LDQ ]XR
GX UHDGV OLNH D VRSKLVWLFDWHG WUDFW RQ WKH *UHDW &RPPHQWDU\
LWVHOI

;XQ 6KXDQJ LV EHVW NQRZQ IRU KLV WKHRU\ RI DVFHQGLQJ DQG


GHVFHQGLQJ OLQHV DQG WULJUDPV ZKLFK FDPH WR EH FORVHO\
OLQNHG WR WKH LGHD WKDW WKH VL[ OLQHV RI D KH[DJUDP FDQ
UHSUHVHQW GLIIHUHQW OHYHOV RI VRFLDO RU EXUHDXFUDWLF VWDWXV DV
ZHOO DV WKH GHYHORSPHQWDO VWDJHV RI D VLWXDWLRQ >6HH )LJXUH
@ 9LHZHG KLHUDUFKLFDOO\ UDWKHU WKDQ GHYHORSPHQWDOO\
DQG E\ IDPLO\ DQDORJ\ DV GLVFXVVHG EULHIO\ DERYH  OLQH 
PLJKW UHSUHVHQW WKH KXVEDQG DQG OLQH  WKH ZLIH 7KH OLQH
VWDWHPHQWV ZRXOG WKHQ SHUWDLQ WR WKHVH UHODWLRQVKLSV DQG
RQFH DJDLQ WKH LQWHUSUHWLYH SRVVLELOLWLHV ZHUH YLUWXDOO\ HQGOHVV


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

/LQH  7KH 6DJH >DND ಯ7KH $QFHVWUDO 7HPSOHರ@


/LQH  7KH 5XOHU >DND ಯ7KH *UHDW 6RYHUHLJQರ@
/LQH  7KH 0LQLVWHU >DND ಯ$OO 7KH 0DUTXLVHVರ@
/LQH  0LGGOH5DQNLQJ 2IILFLDO >DND ಯ7KH 7KUHH
'XNHVರ@
/LQH  /RZHU 2IILFLDO >DND ಯ7KH *UHDW 2IILFHUರ@
/LQH  &RPPRQHU >DND ಯ7KH 3ULPDU\ 6FKRODUರ@

)LJXUH  +H[DJUDP /LQHV DQG 6WDWXV 3RVLWLRQV

<X )DQಬV LQWHUSUHWLYH FODLP WR IDPH ZDV KLV HPSKDVLV RQ ಯORVW


LPDJHVರ \L[LDQJ 拇廰 ಯODWHUDOO\ OLQNHG KH[DJUDPVರ SDQJWRQJ
JXD 㡐抩◵ DQG ಯFKDQJLQJ SRVLWLRQVರ \LZHL 㢢⇜  /RVW
LPDJHV UHIHUV WR ಯWULJUDP TXDOLWLHVರ ◵㉆ WKDW JR ZHOO EH\RQG
WKH DOUHDG\ DPSOH V\PEROLVP SURYLGHG E\ WKH ([SODLQLQJ
WKH 7ULJUDPV ZLQJ 2YHU WLPH WKHVH ಯORVW LPDJHVರ FDPH
WR QXPEHU LQ WKH KXQGUHGV )RU LQVWDQFH D OLVW DSSHQGHG
WR D QLQHWHHQWK FHQWXU\ ERRN E\ &DR :HLOLQ 㦈䍉榥 WLWOHG
+LVWRULFDO 0LUURU RI &KDQJHV 6WXGLHV 㢢⸇⚁晰 LGHQWLILHV
VL[W\VL[ GLIIHUHQW TXDOLWLHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH 4LDQ WULJUDP
DORQHಧLQFOXGLQJ W\SHV RI SHRSOH WKH NLQJ WKH VDJH WKH
H[HPSODU\ SHUVRQ WKH PLOLWDU\ PDQ WKH WUDYHOHU HWF  YDOXHV
UHYHUHQFH IDLWKIXOQHVV NQRZOHGJH YLUWXH ORYH HWF DQG
JHQHUDO DWWULEXWHV RU DFWLYLWLHV JRRGQHVV JUHDWQHVV EOHVV
LQJV DEXQGDQFH EHQHILWV SXULW\ RUGHU KHLJKW PDWXULW\
DZHVRPHQHVV VHYHULW\ DQJHU EHJLQQLQJ HWF 

7KH QRWLRQ RI ODWHUDOO\ OLQNHG KH[DJUDPV KDV WR GR ZLWK WKH


ZD\ D QHZ KH[DJUDP FDQ EH SURGXFHG IURP DQ RULJLQDO RQH


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

E\ FKDQJLQJ HDFK OLQH RI WKH ILUVW IURP \LQ WR \DQJ RU \DQJ WR


\LQ &KDQJLQJ SRVLWLRQV UHIHUV WR D VLPLODU SUDFWLFH EXW RQH
LQ ZKLFK QRW DOO WKH OLQHV RI D KH[DJUDP DUH WUDQVIRUPHG LQWR
WKHLU RSSRVLWHV $ ZHOO NQRZQ PRGHUQ FRPPHQWDWRU RQ WKH
<LMLQJ :HL 'D 橚拣  PDLQWDLQV WKDW ಯ,Q QLQH FDVHV RXW RI
WHQ WKH PHDQLQJ RI RQH OLQH LV FRQILUPHG DQG HOXFLGDWHG E\
WKH VLJQLILFDQFH RI LWV WUDQVIRUPDWLRQರ

7DNHQ WRJHWKHU WKLV YDVW DUVHQDO RI LQWHUSUHWLYH WHFKQLTXHV


PDGH LW SRVVLEOH IRU +DQ DQG ODWHU VFKRODUV WR LQYHVW D JLYHQ
KH[DJUDP RU FRPELQDWLRQ RI KH[DJUDPV ZLWK YLUWXDOO\ DQ\
PHDQLQJ /HW XV WDNH DV DQ DGPLWWHGO\ H[WUHPH H[DPSOH <X
)DQಬV JORVV RQ WKH WRS OLQH VWDWHPHQW RI /¾ ಯ7KH :DQGHUHUರ
QXPEHU   ZKLFK UHDGV LQ WKH UHFHLYHG WH[W ಯ7KLV ELUG JHWV
LWV QHVW EXUQW 7KH :DQGHUHU ILUVW ODXJKV DQG ODWHU KRZOV
DQG ZDLOV +H ORVHV KLV R[ LQ D WLPH RI HDVH ZKLFK PHDQV
PLVIRUWXQHರ 7KLV LV KRZ <X H[SODLQV WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ
WKLV OLQH VWDWHPHQW WKH VWUXFWXUH RI WKH KH[DJUDP DQG WKH
OLQH VWDWHPHQW RI D GHULYDWLYH KH[DJUDP

7KH WULJUDP /L LV D ELUG DQG LV ILUH WKH WULJUDP


6XQ LV ZRRG DQG LV KLJK 7KH IRXUWK OLQH ORVHV LWV
SRVLWLRQ FKDQJLQJ LQWR WKH WULJUDP =KHQ ZKLFK LV
D EDVNHW WKH LPDJH RI D QHVW 1RZ WKH LPDJH RI
D QHVW LV QRW DSSDUHQW WKHUHIRUH WKH ELUG EXUQV LWV
QHVW 7KH WULJUDP =KHQ UHIHUV WR ODXJKLQJ DQG 
  >LW DOVR VLJQLILHV WKH LGHD RI@ D EHJLQQLQJ DQG
WKXV ZH KDYH ODXJKLQJ DW WKH RXWVHW 7KH UHVSRQVH
LV LQ WKH WULJUDP 6XQ 6XQ VLJQLILHV KRZOLQJ DQG
ZDLOLQJ DQG WKH LPDJH RI 6XQ >VLJQLILHV WKH LGHD
RI@ DIWHUZDUG WKXV KRZOLQJ DQG ZDLOLQJ WDNH SODFH


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

ODWHU :KHQ WKH WKLUG OLQH PRYHV >FKDQJHV WR D \LQ


OLQH@ WKH WULJUDP .XQ LV DQ R[ DQG ZKHQ WKH ILIWK
OLQH PRYHV >FKDQJHV WR D \DQJ OLQH@ LW IRUPV WKH
WULJUDP 4LDQ DQG 4LDQ LV HDVH 7KH WRS OLQH ORVHV
WKH WKLUG OLQH 7KH ILIWK OLQH PRYHV LQ UHVSRQVH WR
WKH VHFRQG OLQH WKXV WKH R[ LV ORVW LQ WLPH RI HDVH
/RVLQJ LWV SRVLWLRQ DQG EHLQJ ZLWKRXW D UHVSRQVH LW
LV WKHUHIRUH LQDXVSLFLRXV ,I WKH ILIWK OLQH FKDQJHV
LW IRUPV WKH KH[DJUDP 'XQ :LWKGUDZDO QXPEHU
  WKH VHFRQG OLQH >RI ZKLFK UHIHUV WR WKH LGHD
RI@ ಯKROGLQJ ZLWK \HOORZ R[ KLGHರಧWKH ORVW R[ RI WKH
WUDYHOHUಬV IDPLO\

$OWKRXJK WKLV FRPSOH[ WULJUDP V\PEROLVP FDQ EH WUDFHG WR


YDULRXV SUHYLRXV FRPPHQWDULHV WKH SUHFLVH UHDVRQV WKDW
WKH OLQHV FKDQJH DQG ಯORVH WKHLU SRVLWLRQರ LQ WKLV SDUWLFXODU
LQVWDQFH DUH QHYHU PDGH FOHDU 6PDOO ZRQGHU WKHQ WKDW D
JUHDW PDQ\ &KLQHVH VFKRODUV ERWK SDVW DQG SUHVHQW KDYH
FULWLFL]HG WKH ಯH[FHVVHVರ RI WKLV UDGLFDOO\ FRPSOH[ DSSURDFK
WR ,PDJHV DQG 1XPEHUV LQ WKH &KDQJHV

2QH RI WKH PRVW YRFLIHURXV HDUO\ FULWLFV RI ,PDJHV DQG


1XPEHUV VFKRODUVKLS ZDV :DQJ %L 䘚㇋   WKH
SURJHQLWRU RI ZKDW EHFDPH NQRZQ DV $EVWUXVH /HDUQLQJ
;XDQ[XH 䘓⸇  D FUHDWLYH DPDOJDPDWLRQ RI ERWK &RQIXFLDQ
DQG 'DRLVW WKRXJKW :DQJ UHMHFWHG WKH H[HJHVLV RI +DQ
WKLQNHUV OLNH =KHQJ ;XDQ ;XQ 6KXDQJ DQG <X )DQ DOPRVW
HQWLUHO\ LQ IDYRU RI D 0HDQLQJV DQG 3ULQFLSOHV DSSURDFK WR WKH
<LMLQJ WKDW VWULSSHG DZD\ YLUWXDOO\ DOO RI WKH FRPSOH[ DQG RIWHQ
FRQIXVLQJ QXPHULFDO DVWURORJLFDO DQG FDOHQGULFDO FDOFXODWLRQV
WKDW KDG EHHQ DWWDFKHG WR WKH ZRUN E\ -LQJ )DQJ DQG KLV


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

VXFFHVVRUV

7KH WHUP ಯLPDJHರ PHDQW VRPHWKLQJ YHU\ GLIIHUHQW WR :DQJ %L


WKDQ LW GLG WR KLV ODWH +DQ SUHGHFHVVRUV 5DWKHU WKDQ YLHZLQJ
D KH[DJUDP WULJUDP RU OLQH LPDJH DV VRPHWKLQJ WKDW FRXOG
EH TXDQWLILHG RU FDOLEUDWHG ZLWK VHHPLQJO\ LQILQLWH VSHFLILFLW\
DQG FRPSOH[LW\ :DQJ FRQVLGHUHG KH[DJUDPV DQG WULJUDPV
WR EH D PRUH JHQHUDO PHDQV RI XQGHUVWDQGLQJ SURFHVVHV RI
FKDQJH :KHUHDV /DWHU +DQ FRPPHQWDWRUV OLNH =KHQJ ;XQ
DQG <X PHDVXUHG WKH PHDQLQJ DQG YDOXH RI D KH[DJUDP
LQ WHUPV RI LWV UHODWLRQVKLS WR RWKHU KH[DJUDPV DOO RI ZKLFK
ZHUH HQPHVKHG LQ DQ HODERUDWH ZHE RI QXPHURORJLFDO DQG
RWKHU V\PEROLF FRUUHVSRQGHQFHV :DQJ %L IRFXVHG RQ
LQGLYLGXDO KH[DJUDPV DQG WKH ZD\ WKH\ LOOXPLQDWHG FKDQJLQJ
VLWXDWLRQV $V :DQJ SXW WKH PDWWHU LQ KLV IDPRXV HVVD\
ಯ*HQHUDO 5HPDUNV RQ WKH =KRX &KDQJHVರ =KRX\L OXHOL
⛷㢢䟴√  ಯ:KHQ ZH FLWH WKH QDPH RI D KH[DJUDP LQ LWV
PHDQLQJ ZH ILQG WKH FRQWUROOLQJ SULQFLSOH DQG ZKHQ ZH UHDG
WKH ZRUGV RI WKH MXGJPHQW WKHQ ZH KDYH JRW PRUH WKDQ KDOI
WKH LGHDV LQYROYHG    7KH KH[DJUDPV GHDO ZLWK PRPHQWV
RI WLPH DQG WKH OLQHV DUH FRQFHUQHG ZLWK WKH VWDWHV RI FKDQJH
WKDW DUH DSSURSULDWH WR WKRVH WLPHVರ

7KXV LQ YLUWXDOO\ DOO RI KLV FRPPHQWDULHV RQ LQGLYLGXDO


KH[DJUDPV :DQJ WDNHV SDLQV WR VSHOO RXW WKH QDWXUH RI HYHU\
OLQH DQG LWV UHODWLRQVKLS ZLWK RWKHU OLQHV DQGRU WULJUDPV )RU
KLP HDFK KH[DJUDP ZKHWKHU DXVSLFLRXV RU LQDXVSLFLRXV
VLPSOH RU FRPSOLFDWHG V\PEROL]HV WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI FKDQJH
ಯ)LUVW D KH[DJUDP GHQRWHV D VSHFLILF VLWXDWLRQ RU WLPH VKL
㣑  VXFK DV ZDU SHDFH KDUPRQ\ GLVFRUG FRQIOLFW DQG


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

UHFRQFLOLDWLRQ 6HFRQG WKH VL[ OLQHV RI D KH[DJUDP UHSUHVHQW


WKH URRP WR PDQHXYHU DSSOLFDWLRQ RU \RQJ 䞷 ZLWKLQ WKDW
SDUWLFXODU VLWXDWLRQ VKRZLQJ ERWK WKH KLGGHQ GDQJHUV DQG
WKH DYDLODEOH RSWLRQVರ $W WKLV SUHFLVH MXQFWXUH EHWZHHQ ZKDW
LV ಯIDWHGರ DQG ZKDW FDQ EH GRQH :DQJ %L HPSKDVL]HV ಯWKH
IOXLGLW\ RI KXPDQ DIIDLUV DQG WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI PDNLQJ WKH
ULJKW GHFLVLRQರ

7KH RQO\ PDMRU LQWHUSUHWLYH SULQFLSOHV WKDW :DQJ VKDUHG


ZLWK FRPPHQWDWRUV IURP WKH /DWH +DQ SHULRG ZHUH $ WKH
YLHZ WKDW FHUWDLQ KH[DJUDP OLQHV FDQ UHVRQDWH SURGXFWLYHO\
ZLWK RQH DQRWKHU DQG % WKH QRWLRQ WKDW WKH OLQHV FDQ
UHSUHVHQWಧHLWKHU GLUHFWO\ RU E\ DQDORJ\ಧGLIIHUHQW NLQGV RI
SHRSOH LQ GLIIHUHQW SRVLWLRQV DQG VRFLDO VLWXDWLRQV 8QGHU
PRVW FLUFXPVWDQFHV KRZHYHU :DQJ FKRVH WR HPSKDVL]H
WKH WHPSRUDO DQG GHYHORSPHQWDO VLJQLILFDQFH RI WKH LQGLYLGXDO
OLQHV ZLWKLQ WKH IUDPHZRUN RI D VLQJOH KH[DJUDP ,Q KLV ZRUGV
ಯ0RPHQWV RI WLPH HQWDLO HLWKHU REVWUXFWLRQ RU IDFLOLW\ WKXV WKH
DSSOLFDWLRQ >RI D JLYHQ KH[DJUDP@ LV HLWKHU D PDWWHU RI DFWLRQ
RU RI ZLWKGUDZDOರ 2QFH WKH FULWLFDO ಯLQFLSLHQWರ PRPHQW RI
WLPH KDV EHHQ GHWHUPLQHG ಯRQH VKRXOG HLWKHU DFW RU UHPDLQ
SDVVLYH UHVSRQGLQJ WR WKH W\SH RI DSSOLFDWLRQ LQYROYHGರ 2QH
FRQWHPSODWHV WKH QDPH RI WKH KH[DJUDP LQ RUGHU WR VHH
ZKHWKHU WKH JHQHUDO VLWXDWLRQ SRUWHQGV JRRG IRUWXQH RU EDG
DQG RQH FLWHV ZKDW LV VDLG DERXW WKH LQFLSLHQW PRPHQW LQ
RUGHU WR VHH ZKHWKHU RQH VKRXOG DFW RU UHPDLQ SDVVLYH )URP
WKHVH WKLQJV ಯLW LV DSSDUHQW KRZ FKDQJH RSHUDWHV ZLWKLQ WKH
ERG\ RI RQH KH[DJUDPರ 6R IRU LQVWDQFH LQ JORVVLQJ WKH *HQ
KH[DJUDP ಯ5HVWUDLQWರ QXPEHU  EHORZ :DQJ SRLQWV RXW
WKDW WKH WKLUG \DQJ OLQH SRUWHQGV GDQJHU LQGLFDWLQJ WKH QHHG


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

IRU JUHDW FDXWLRQ DQG FDUH EHFDXVH RI LWV SRVLWLRQ DW WKH


ಯEDFNERQHರ RI WKH KH[DJUDP LH LWV ORFDWLRQ EHWZHHQ D SDLU
RI \LQ OLQHV RQ HLWKHU VLGH 

)LJXUH  *HQ

%\ WKH HQG RI WKH 6L[ '\QDVWLHV SHULRG  &(  :DQJ


%LಬV FRPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH &KDQJHV DPSOLILHG E\ WKH UHPDUNV RI
+DQ .DQJER 橢ㅆ↾ F "  KDG JDLQHG DVFHQGDQF\
DPRQJ VFKRODUV RI WKH <LMLQJ 7KLV DVFHQGDQF\ FRQWLQXHG LQWR
WKH 6XL  DQG 7DQJ  G\QDVWLHV HVSHFLDOO\
DIWHU :DQJಬV HGLWLRQ RI WKH WH[W EHFDPH WKH FHQWHUSLHFH RI
.RQJ <LQJGDಬV ⷣ䳝拣  &RUUHFW 0HDQLQJ RI WKH
=KRX &KDQJHV =KRX\L ]KHQJ\L ⛷㢢㷲券  ZKLFK UHPDLQHG
WKH RIILFLDO YHUVLRQ RI WKH <LMLQJ WKURXJKRXW WKH 7DQJ DQG LQWR
WKH 6RQJ  DQG <XDQ  G\QDVWLHV

+DQVW\OH 1HZ 7H[W VFKRODUVKLS DQG ,PDJHV DQG 1XPEHUV


LQWHUSUHWDWLRQV GLG QRW GLVDSSHDU HQWLUHO\ KRZHYHU ,Q IDFW LQ
VRPH FLUFOHV WKHUH ZDV D UHVXUJHQFH RI +DQVW\OH FRUUHODWLYH
WKLQNLQJ 'XULQJ WKH 7DQJ SHULRG IRU H[DPSOH WKH ILYH DJHQWV
ZHUH ILUVW PDWFKHG V\VWHPDWLFDOO\ ZLWK WKH HLJKW WULJUDPV ,Q
WKH PRVW FRPPRQ FRQILJXUDWLRQ WKH 4LDQ DQG 'XL WULJUDPV


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

VKDUHG WKH DJHQW PHWDO 6XQ DQG =KHQ VKDUHG ZRRG DQG
*HQ DQG .XQ VKDUHG HDUWK .DQ ZDV OLQNHG VROHO\ ZLWK
ZDWHU DQG /L ZDV DVVRFLDWHG RQO\ ZLWK ILUH ,Q DQRWKHU OHVV
FRPPRQ PRGHO 4LDQ DQG .XQ VKDUHG ERWK ZRRG DQG ZDWHU
*HQ DQG 'XL VKDUHG ILUH .DQ DQG /L VKDUHG HDUWK DQG =KHQ
DQG 6XQ VKDUHG PHWDO ,Q HLWKHU FDVH WKH EDVLF JRDO ZDV WR
DVVXUH WKDW LQ DQ\ JLYHQ VLWXDWLRQ WKH FRQMXQFWLRQ RI V\PEROLF
HOHPHQWVಧZKHWKHU WULJUDPV DJHQWV RU QXPEHUVಧZRXOG
EH KDUPRQLRXV DQG WKHUHIRUH DXVSLFLRXV %XW WR FULWLFV RI
WKLV VRUW RI FRVPRORJLFDO WKLQNLQJ OLNH WKH 7DQJ VFKRODU
/¾ &DL  DQG KLV VXFFHVVRUV HIIRUWV WR FRUUHODWH
LQFRPPHQVXUDWH QXPEHUV UHSUHVHQWHG QRWKLQJ PRUH WKDQ D
ಯIRUFHG ILWರ TLDQJSHL ㇆揜 

,W ZDV GXULQJ WKH 7DQJ G\QDVW\ WKDW %XGGKLVW DQG 'DRLVW


LGHDV ZKLFK KDG DOUHDG\ EHJXQ WR LQIOXHQFH <LMLQJ VFKRODU
VKLS LQ WKH 6L[ '\QDVWLHV SHULRG JDLQHG HYHU JUHDWHU YLVLELOLW\
3URSRQHQWV RI 'DRLVW ಯDOFKHP\ರ IRU LQVWDQFH LQ WKHLU TXHVW
IRU ORQJHYLW\ DQG HYHQWXDO LPPRUWDOLW\ LQFUHDVLQJO\ VDZ
WKH &KDQJHV DV D FRQYHQLHQW GHYLFH E\ ZKLFK WR DOLJQ WKH
ERG\ DQG PLQG ZLWK WKH FRVPRV /LNHZLVH 7DQJ %XGGKLVWV
EXLOGLQJ RQ 6L[ '\QDVW\ SUHFHGHQWV HQJDJHG WKH <LMLQJ WR
DQ XQSUHFHGHQWHG H[WHQW 7KLV ZDV SDUWLFXODUO\ WUXH IRU WKH
YDULHW\ RI %XGGKLVP NQRZQ DV )ORZHU\ 6SOHQGRU +XD\DQ
噾⥃  )URP WKLV SRLQW RQZDUG DV ZH VKDOO VHH %XGGKLVW
WHUPLQRORJ\ LPDJHU\ DQG V\PEROLVP LQFUHDVLQJO\ IRXQG LWV
ZD\ LQWR &KDQJHV H[HJHVLV

$ %ULHI $FFRXQW RI ,QWHUSUHWDWLRQV RI WKH &KDQJHV LQ


/DWH ,PSHULDO DQG 3RVW,PSHULDO 7LPHV  &(3UHVHQW


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

7KH LQWHOOHFWXDO DQG LQVWLWXWLRQDO FKDOOHQJH SRVHG E\


%XGGKLVP LQ WKH 7DQJ G\QDVW\ UHVXOWHG LQ WKH ULVH RI ಯ1HR
&RQIXFLDQLVPರ GXULQJ WKH 6RQJ G\QDVW\ 7KLV QHZ EUDQG RI
PHWDSK\VLFDOO\ RULHQWHG &RQIXFLDQLVP GUHZ KHDYLO\ RQ WKH
<LMLQJ DV D GRPHVWLF VRXUFH RI LQVSLUDWLRQ D FRXQWHUZHLJKW WR
WKH ಯDOLHQರ LGHDV RI %XGGKLVP 1HR&RQIXFLDQLVP WRRN WZR
PDMRU IRUPV LQ WKH 6RQJ SHULRG DQG WKHUHDIWHU 2QH ZDV WKH
VRFDOOHG 6FKRRO RI 3ULQFLSOH ZKLFK IRFXVHG RQ WKH LGHD WKDW
LQ RUGHU WR FXOWLYDWH WKH ಯSULQFLSOHರ RI RQHಬV LQQDWH JRRGQHVV LW
ZDV QHFHVVDU\ WR VWXG\ WKH &RQIXFLDQ &ODVVLFV DVVLGXRXVO\
WKXV UHILQLQJ RQHಬV TL IURP ZLWKRXW VR WR VSHDN 7KH RWKHU
ZDV WKH VRFDOOHG 6FKRRO RI WKH 0LQG ZKLFK HPSKDVL]HG WKH
YDOXH RI VHHNLQJ WKH SULQFLSOH RI WKH LQQDWHO\ JRRG VHOI ZLWKLQ
SULPDULO\ WKURXJK PHGLWDWLRQ %RWK VFKRROV SODFHG D KHDY\
HPSKDVLV RQ WKH SRZHU RI WKH PLQG KRZHYHU 7KXV IRU DOO
KLV LQVLVWHQFH RQ WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI ERRNOHDUQLQJ RQH RI WKH
OHDGLQJ H[SRQHQWV RI WKH 6FKRRO RI 3ULQFLSOH &KHQJ <L 䲚檳
  FRXOG ZULWH WKDW ಯ:LWK WKH PRVW KLJKO\ GHYHORSHG
VLQFHULW\ >WKH PLQG@ FDQ SHQHWUDWH PHWDO DQG VWRQH DQG
RYHUFRPH ZDWHU DQG ILUH VR ZKDW GDQJHUV DQG GLIILFXOWLHV FDQ
SRVVLEO\ NHHS LW IURP SUHYDLOLQJ"ರ

2QH RI WKH PDQ\ QRWHZRUWK\ IHDWXUHV RI HDUO\ 6RQJ VFKRO


DUVKLS RQ WKH <LMLQJ LV WKH SURIXVLRQ RI FKDUWV DQG GLDJUDPV
WKDW VXGGHQO\ DSSHDUHG DW WKDW WLPH PDQ\ RI ZKLFK FDPH WR
EH DWWULEXWHG WR D 'DRLVW PDVWHU QDPHG &KHQ 7XDQ 椂㜅
  7KHVH LOOXVWUDWLRQV DOWKRXJK XVXDOO\ DVVRFLDWHG
ZLWK WKH 6FKRRO RI ,PDJHV DQG 1XPEHUV FDPH WR EH DWWDFKHG
WR WKH ZULWLQJV RI PDQ\ 6RQJ DQG ODWHU VFKRODUV LGHQWLILHG


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

VROLGO\ ZLWK WKH 6FKRRO RI 0HDQLQJV DQG 3ULQFLSOHಧRQH


RI PDQ\ LQGLFDWLRQV RI WKH OLPLWV RI WKHVH DQG RWKHU VXFK
HYDOXDWLYH FDWHJRULHV LQ WKH KLVWRU\ RI &KDQJHV VFKRODUVKLS

7KH PRVW LQIOXHQWLDO RI WKHVH HDUO\ GLDJUDPV ZHUH  7KH


ಯ<HOORZ 5LYHU &KDUWರ +HWX 㽂⦥   7KH ಯ/XR 5LYHU :ULWLQJರ
/XRVKX 㾪㦇   WKH ಯ)RUPHU +HDYHQ &KDUWರ [LDQWLDQ WX
⏗⮸⦥ DQG  WKH ಯ/DWHU +HDYHQ &KDUWರ +RXWLDQ WX ㈛⮸⦥ 
$OO IRXU FDPH WR EH VHHQ DV ಯPDSVರ RI WKH FRVPRV V\PEROLF
JXLGHV WR LWV LQQHU ZRUNLQJV DQG RXWZDUG PDQLIHVWDWLRQV
7KH <HOORZ 5LYHU &KDUW DUUDQJHV WKH QXPEHUV IURP RQH WR
WHQ LQ VXFK D ZD\ DV WR SDLU RGG \DQJ QXPEHUV ZLWK HYHQ
\LQ RQHV 7KHVH QXPEHUV DUH WKHQ FRUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH ILYH
GLUHFWLRQV DQG KHQFH WKH ILYH DJHQWV  WZR DQG VHYHQ WR WKH
VRXWK ILUH  RQH DQG VL[ WR WKH QRUWK ZDWHU  WKUHH DQG HLJKW
WR WKH HDVW ZRRG  IRXU DQG QLQH LQ WKH ZHVW PHWDO  DQG ILYH
DQG WHQ DW WKH FHQWHU HDUWK  ,Q WKH ಯPXWXDO SURGXFWLRQರ VH
TXHQFH RI WKH ILYH DJHQWV ZRRG SURGXFHV ILUH ILUH SURGXFHV
HDUWK HDUWK SURGXFHV PHWDO PHWDO SURGXFHV ZDWHU DQG
ZDWHU SURGXFHV ZRRG ,Q WKH ಯPXWXDO FRQTXHVWರ VHTXHQFH
ZDWHU FRQTXHUV ILUH ILUH FRQTXHUV PHWDO PHWDO FRQTXHUV
ZRRG ZRRG FRQTXHUV HDUWK DQG HDUWK FRQTXHUV ZDWHU ,Q
WKH <HOORZ 5LYHU &KDUW ZKLFK UHIOHFWV WKH PXWXDO SURGXFWLRQ
VHTXHQFH RI WKH ILYH DJHQWV DOO RI WKH RGG QXPEHUV DGG XS WR
 DQG DOO RI WKH HYHQ QXPEHUV DGG XS WR 

,Q WKH /XR 5LYHU :ULWLQJ ZH ILQG D ಯPDJLF VTXDUHರ LQ ZKLFK


DOO WKH QXPEHUV LQ DQ\ URZ RI WKUHH ZKHWKHU SHUSHQGLFXODU
KRUL]RQWDO RU GLDJRQDO DGG XS WR ILIWHHQ (YHQ \LQ QXPEHUV
RFFXS\ DOO IRXU FRUQHUV DQG WKH ILYHDJHQWV VHTXHQFH LV RQH


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

RI PXWXDO FRQTXHVW 7KXV IRU H[DPSOH ZRRG WKUHH DQG


HLJKW RYHUFRPHV HDUWK ILYH DQG WHQ  HDUWK RYHUFRPHV ZDWHU
RQH DQG VL[  ZDWHU RYHUFRPHV ILUH WZR DQG VHYHQ  ILUH
RYHUFRPHV PHWDO IRXU DQG QLQH DQG PHWDO RYHUFRPHV ZRRG

7KH )RUPHU +HDYHQ &KDUW DWWULEXWHG WR )X[L GLVSOD\V WKH


HLJKW WULJUDPV LQ IRXU VHWV HDFK FRUUHVSRQGLQJ WR RQH RI
WKH IRXU VHDVRQV XVXDOO\ GHSLFWHG LQ FORFNZLVH RUGHU ZLWK
VXPPHU ORFDWHG LQ WKH VRXWK DW WKH WRS RI WKH GLDJUDP  7KH
MX[WDSRVLWLRQV LQ WKLV FRQILJXUDWLRQ DUH 4LDQ 6RXWK DQG .XQ
1RUWK  6XQ 6RXWKZHVW DQG =KHQ 1RUWKHDVW  .DQ :HVW
DQG /L (DVW  DQG *HQ 1RUWKZHVW DQG 'XL 6RXWKHDVW 
$FFRUGLQJ WR WKH ([SODLQLQJ WKH 7ULJUDPV FRPPHQWDU\ WKH
FORFNZLVH PRYHPHQW RI WKH WULJUDPV IURP =KHQ WKURXJK /L
DQG 'XL WR 4LDQ WDNHV LQWR DFFRXQW ZKDW LV DOUHDG\ H[LVWLQJ
ZKLOH WKH FRXQWHUFORFNZLVH PRYHPHQW RI WKH WULJUDPV IURP
6XQ WKURXJK .DQ DQG *HQ WR .XQ WDNHV LQWR DFFRXQW
ZKDW KDV QRW \HW FRPH LQWR H[LVWHQFH ,Q WHUPV RI WKHLU
GLUHFW ಯHIIHFWV LQ QDWXUHರ DV GLVFXVVHG EULHIO\ DERYH =KHQ
7KXQGHU FDXVHV WKLQJV WR PRYH 6XQ :LQG GLVSHUVHV
WKLQJV .DQ :DWHU PRLVWHQV WKLQJV /L )LUH GULHV WKLQJV
*HQ 0RXQWDLQ FDXVHV WKLQJV WR VWRS 'XL /DNH SOHDVHV
WKLQJV 4LDQ +HDYHQ SURYLGHV JRYHUQDQFH DQG .XQ (DUWK
VKHOWHUV WKLQJV

7KH /DWHU +HDYHQ &KDUW DWWULEXWHG WR .LQJ :HQ SUHVHQWV


WKH WULJUDPV LQ D VSDWLDO RUGHU WKDW GHSLFWV \HW DQRWKHU NLQG
RI GHYHORSPHQWDO FKDQJH ,Q WKH PRVW FRPPRQ YHUVLRQ RI
WKLV VFKHPH =KHQ (DVW PDUNV WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI WKH /DWHU
+HDYHQ F\FOH IROORZHG E\ 6XQ 6RXWKHDVW  /L 6RXWK  .XQ


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

6RXWKZHVW  'XL :HVW  4LDQ 1RUWKZHVW  .DQ 1RUWK 


DQG *HQ 1RUWKHDVW  ,Q WKLV VHTXHQFH DOO WKLQJV FRPH
IRUWK LQ =KHQ 7KXQGHU  WKH\ DUH VHW LQ RUGHU LQ 6XQ ZLQG 
WKH\ DUH PDGH YLVLEOH WR RQH DQRWKHU LQ /L )LUH  WKH\ DUH
QRXULVKHG E\ .XQ (DUWK  WKH\ DUH SOHDVHG E\ 'XL /DNH 
WKH\ FRQWHQG LQ 4LDQ +HDYHQ  WKH\ WRLO LQ .DQ :DWHU  DQG
WKH\ UHDFK PDWXULW\ LQ *HQ 0RXQWDLQ  1RW VXUSULVLQJO\
WKH IRXU LOOXVWUDWLRQV GLVFXVVHG DERYH EHFDPH PXWXDOO\
LPSOLFDWHG 7KXV IRU LQVWDQFH WKH /XR 5LYHU :ULWLQJ FDPH
WR EH SDLUHG ZLWK WKH )RUPHU +HDYHQ &KDUW DQG WKH <HOORZ
5LYHU &KDUW FDPH WR EH SDLUHG ZLWK WKH /DWHU +HDYHQ &KDUW

2YHU WLPH WKH LQWHUUHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ WKHVH FKDUWV


EHFDPH HYHU PRUH FRPSOH[ ,Q HDFK FDVH WKH SXUSRVH ZDV
WR FUHDWH D FRPSUHKHQVLYH YLVLRQ RI UHDOLW\ RQH LQ ZKLFK
QXPEHU DQG LPDJH DV ZHOO DV SDVW SUHVHQW DQG IXWXUH
ZHUH VHDPOHVVO\ LQWHJUDWHG 1DWXUDOO\ WKH ZLGH YDULHW\ RI
IRUPXODWLRQV LQYLWHG D JUHDW GHDO RI FULWLFLVP IURP GLIIHUHQW
DQJOHV EXW WKH HIIRUW WR EXLOG FRPSUHKHQVLYH PRGHOV RI UHDOLW\
FRQWLQXHG XQFHDVLQJO\

2QH RI WKH JUHDW ,PDJHV DQG 1XPEHUV V\VWHPV EXLOGHUV RI WKH


6RQJ SHULRG ZDV 6KDR <RQJ 捄楜   ZKRVH ERRN
6XSUHPH 3ULQFLSOHV WKDW 5XOH WKH :RUOG +XDQJML MLQJVKL VKX
䤖㰄倢₥㦇 UHFHLYHG SUDLVH IRU LWV FRPSUHKHQVLYHQHVV DV
ZHOO DV FULWLFLVP IRU LWV HIIRUW WR ಯIRUFHರ VRPH RI LWV FRUUHODWLRQV
DQG IRU WDNLQJ OLEHUWLHV ZLWK WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO V\PEROLVP RI WKH
&KDQJHV :H VKDOO KHDU PRUH RI KLP LQ VXEVHTXHQW FKDSWHUV
$FFRUGLQJ WR 6KDR HYHU\WKLQJ EHJDQ ZLWK WKH ಯ6XSUHPH
8OWLPDWHರ D FRQFHSW GUDZQ IURP WKH *UHDW &RPPHQWDU\


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

ZKLFK FDPH WR EH LGHQWLILHG DV WKH JHQHUDWLYH IRUFH WKDW


SURGXFHG DOO WKLQJV HTXLYDOHQW WR ERWK +HDYHQ DQG WKH 'DR
,Q 6KDRಬV YLHZ WKH 6XSUHPH 8OWLPDWH SURGXFHG QXPEHUV
QXPEHUV \LHOGHG LPDJHV DQG LPDJHV EHFDPH FRQFUHWH
REMHFWV DOO FRPSULVHG RI TL

6KDR EHOLHYHG WKDW WKH HLJKW WULJUDPV ZHUH WKH EDVLF ಯHO
HPHQWVರ RI ZKLFK DOO WKLQJV ZHUH XOWLPDWHO\ FRQVWLWXWHG
7KH\ ZHUH HQJHQGHUHG E\ WKH LQWHUDFWLRQ RI \LQ DQG \DQJ
ZKLFK SURGXFHG IRXU WZROLQH LPDJHV VRPHWLPHV NQRZQ
DV GLJUDPV  UHSUHVHQWLQJ  JUHDWHU \LQ WZR EURNHQ OLQHV
FRUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH 'XL WULJUDP   OHVVHU \LQ D EURNHQ
OLQH UHVWLQJ DERYH D VROLG OLQH FRUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH =KHQ
WULJUDP   JUHDWHU \DQJ WZR VROLG OLQHV FRUUHODWHG ZLWK
WKH 4LDQ WULJUDP DQG  OHVVHU \DQJ D VROLG OLQH UHVWLQJ
DERYH D EURNHQ OLQH FRUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH /L WULJUDP  7KHVH
IRXU LPDJHV LQ WXUQ ZHUH UHODWHG WR IRXU LPDJHV GHVLJ
QDWHG ಯJUHDWHU ZHDNQHVVರ FRUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH .XQ WULJUDP 
ಯOHVVHU ZHDNQHVVರ FRUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH .DQ WULJUDP  ಯJUHDWHU
VWUHQJWKರ FRUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH *HQ WULJUDP DQG ಯOHVVHU
VWUHQJWKರ FRUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH 6XQ WULJUDP 

)URP WKHVH WZR VHWV RI LPDJHV RWKHUV IROORZHG IRXU FHOHVWLDO


LPDJHV WKH VXQ PRRQ VWDUV DQG ]RGLDFDO VSDFH  IRXU
WHUUHVWULDO LPDJHV ZDWHU ILUH VRLO DQG VWRQH  DQG D KRVW RI
RWKHU ಯQDWXUDOರ JURXSLQJV RI IRXUಧLQFOXGLQJ VHDVRQV GLUHF
WLRQV OLPEV YLUWXHV VWDJHV RI OLIH VHQVH RUJDQV HWF 6RPH
RI WKHVH JURXSLQJV PD\ QRW VHHP VR QDWXUDO )RU H[DPSOH
WKH *HQ WULJUDP UHSUHVHQWLQJ ಯJUHDWHU VWUHQJWKರ FDPH WR EH
FRUUHODWHG ZLWK D IRXUSDUW FDWHJRU\ FRQVLVWLQJ RI  RGRUV


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

DQG ILUH  GD\WLPH DQG ZLQG  WKH &ODVVLF RI 3RHWU\ DQG


IO\LQJ WKLQJV DQG  WKH VWRPDFK DQG ERQH PDUURZ 6KDR
DOVR GHYHORSHG D YDVW V\VWHP RI QXPHULFDO FRUUHVSRQGHQFHV
EDVHG LQ SDUW RQ WKH QXPEHUV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK <HOORZ 5LYHU
&KDUW WR ಯPRUH SUHFLVHO\ GHILQH WKH UHODWLRQVKLS RI WKLQJV
SUHGLFW WKH IXWXUH DQG FRPSUHKHQG YDVW TXDQWLWLHV RI VSDFH
DQG WLPHರ ,Q 6KDRಬV FRPSOH[ V\VWHP RI UHFNRQLQJ QXPEHUV
LQ RQH VHTXHQFH GHVFULEHG DVSHFWV RI WKH SUHVHQW RU WKH
SDVW DQG LQ D GLIIHUHQW VHTXHQFH WKH\ UHYHDOHG WKH IXWXUH

6FKRODUV RI WKH 6FKRRO RI 3ULQFLSOH VXFK DV &KHQJ <L UHVLVWHG


WKLV VRUW RI QXPHURORJLFDO V\VWHP EXLOGLQJ )RU WKHP WKH
<LMLQJ ZDV DERYH DOO D PRUDO GRFXPHQW WR EH XVHG VROHO\
IRU FXOWLYDWLQJ VDJHOLQHVV ZLWKLQ DQG WKHQ PDQLIHVWLQJ LW LQ
VHUYLFH WR VRFLHW\ ,Q KLV KLJKO\ LQIOXHQWLDO FRPPHQWDULHV
&KHQJ VWHDGIDVWO\ UHIXVHG WR VHH WKH &KDQJHV DV DQ\WKLQJ
PRUH WKDQ D WH[W HQFRXUDJLQJ ULJKW EHKDYLRU DOWKRXJK LQ KLV
SULYDWH FRQYHUVDWLRQV KH ZDV VRPHZKDW DPELYDOHQW DERXW
WKH QXPHURORJ\ RI VFKRODUV VXFK DV 6KDR <RQJ

=KX ;L 㧀䑈   D WRZHULQJ ILJXUH LQ WUDGLWLRQDO


&KLQHVH WKRXJKW WULHG WR QHJRWLDWH D SDWK WR XQGHUVWDQGLQJ
WKH <LMLQJ WKDW ZRXOG DYRLG WKH PRUDOLVWLF H[WUHPHV RI &KHQJ
<L DV ZHOO DV WKH QXPHURORJLFDO H[FHVVHV RI 6KDR <RQJ
IHHOLQJ WKDW ಯ&RQIXFLDQV ZKR WDON DERXW LPDJHV DQG QXPEHUV
JLYH VWUDLQHG LQWHUSUHWDWLRQV DQG GUDZ IDUIHWFKHG DQDORJLHV
ZKLOH WKRVH ZKR SUHDFK >RQO\@ PHDQLQJV DQG SULQFLSOHV VWUD\
IDU IURP WKH VXEMHFWರ )XQGDPHQWDOO\ =KX FRQVLGHUHG WKH
&KDQJHV WR EH D ERRN RI GLYLQDWLRQ ಯZKDW LV GHVFULEHG LQ
LWರ KH ZURWH ಯLV VLPSO\ LPDJHV DQG QXPEHUV E\ ZKLFK WR


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

IRUHWHOO RQHಬV JRRG RU HYLO IRUWXQHರ %XW KH DOVR EHOLHYHG


WKDW WKH XOWLPDWH SXUSRVH RI WKH <LMLQJ ZDV VHOIFXOWLYDWLRQ
DQG WKDW ZLWKRXW VLQFHULW\ DQG WKH UHFWLILFDWLRQ RI FKDUDFWHU
WKH ZRUN ZRXOG EH RI QR XVH DV D GLYLQDWRU\ GHYLFH =KXಬV
XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH FODVVLF ZDV WKXV IXQGDPHQWDOO\ ZLWKLQ
WKH IUDPHZRUN RI WKH 6FKRRO RI 3ULQFLSOH ,QGHHG WKLV EUDQFK
RI OHDUQLQJ ZRXOG ODWHU EH LGHQWLILHG DV WKH &KHQJ ><L@=KX
>;L@ 6FKRRO 䲚㧀⸇㿍 

%HFDXVH RI KLV LQWHUHVW LQ GLYLQDWLRQ =KX ;L ZDV PRUH


RSHQ WKDQ VRPH RI KLV FROOHDJXHV WR FHUWDLQ LGHDV RI +DQ
WKLQNHUV VXFK DV -LQJ )DQJ DQG <X )DQ )RU H[DPSOH KH
XVHG -LQJಬV VRFDOOHG (LJKW 3DODFHV EDJRQJ ⏺⸽ V\VWHP
WR H[SODLQ KRZ WKH HLJKW WULJUDPV FKDQJHG V\VWHPDWLFDOO\
LQWR WKH VL[W\IRXU KH[DJUDPV $QG LQ DQ HYHQ PRUH UDGLFDO
PRYH =KX LQFRUSRUDWHG WKH <HOORZ 5LYHU &KDUW DQG /XR
5LYHU :ULWLQJ LQWR ERWK KLV ,QWURGXFWLRQ WR &KDQJHV 6WXGLHV
<L[XH TLPHQJ 㢢⸇⟢在 DQG KLV )XQGDPHQWDO 0HDQLQJ RI
WKH =KRX &KDQJHV =KRX\L EHQ\L ⛷㢢㦻券 DUJXLQJ WKDW WKH
FXOWXUH KHUR )X[L KDG GUDZQ XSRQ WKH QXPHURORJ\ RI WKHVH
WZR GLDJUDPV LQ OD\LQJ WKH IRXQGDWLRQV RI WKH <LMLQJ


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

=KX ;LಬV LQVWUXFWLRQV IRU H[DPLQLQJ WKH UHVXOW RI D GLYLQDWLRQ


OLNH WKH ULWXDOV KH GHYLVHG IRU WKH SURFHVV SURYHG WR EH
H[WUHPHO\ LQIOXHQWLDO RYHU WLPH $FFRUGLQJ WR =KX ಯ$Q\
KH[DJUDP PD\ KDYH DOO XQFKDQJLQJ OLQHV ,Q WKDW FDVH
ZH SURJQRVWLFDWH RQ WKH EDVLV RI WKH RULJLQDO KH[DJUDPಬV
MXGJPHQW WDNLQJ WKH LQQHU WULJUDP DV WKH TXHVWLRQ RU SUHVHQW
VLWXDWLRQ DQG WKH RXWHU WULJUDP DV WKH SURJQRVWLFDWLRQರ :KHQ
RQO\ RQH OLQH FKDQJHV ಯZH WDNH WKH VWDWHPHQW RI WKH RULJLQDO
KH[DJUDPಬV FKDQJLQJ OLQH DV WKH SURJQRVWLFDWLRQರ :KHQ WZR
OLQHV FKDQJH ಯZH WDNH WKH VWDWHPHQWV RI WKH WZR FKDQJLQJ
OLQHV RI WKH RULJLQDO KH[DJUDP DV WKH SURJQRVWLFDWLRQ EXW ZH
WDNH WKH XSSHUPRVW OLQH DV UXOHUರ :KHQ WKUHH OLQHV FKDQJH
ಯWKH SURJQRVWLFDWLRQ LQYROYHV WKH MXGJPHQW RI WKH RULJLQDO
KH[DJUDP DQG WKDW RI WKH UHVXOWLQJ KH[DJUDP XVLQJ WKH
RULJLQDO KH[DJUDP DV WKH TXHVWLRQ RU JHQHUDO VLWXDWLRQ DQG WKH
UHVXOWLQJ KH[DJUDP DV WKH SURJQRVWLFDWLRQರ :KHQ IRXU OLQHV
FKDQJH ಯZH XVH WKH WZR XQFKDQJLQJ OLQHV LQ WKH UHVXOWLQJ
KH[DJUDP DV WKH SURJQRVWLFDWLRQ EXW ZH WDNH WKH ORZHU OLQH
DV WKH UXOHUರ :KHQ ILYH OLQHV FKDQJH ಯZH XVH WKH XQFKDQJLQJ
OLQH RI WKH UHVXOWLQJ KH[DJUDP DV WKH SURJQRVWLFDWLRQರ :KHQ
DOO VL[ OLQHV FKDQJH LI WKH KH[DJUDPV DUH 4LDQ QXPEHU 
DQG .XQ QXPEHU   WKH SURJQRVWLFDWLRQV RI ERWK DUH XVHG
)RU RWKHU KH[DJUDPV ಯWKH SURJQRVWLFDWLRQ LV WKH MXGJPHQW RI
WKH UHVXOWLQJ KH[DJUDPರ

'HVSLWH =KX ;LಬV H[WUDRUGLQDU\ LQIOXHQFH LQ VR PDQ\ UHDOPV RI


&KLQHVH WKRXJKW DQG EHKDYLRU LW LV FOHDU WKDW WKHUH ZDV QHYHU
QRU FRXOG WKHUH HYHU EH DQ\ JHQHUDO DJUHHPHQW RQ KRZ WR
LQWHUSUHW WKH UHVXOWV RI DQ <LMLQJ GLYLQDWLRQ )RU LQVWDQFH D
QXPEHU RI FRPPHQWDWRUV PDLQWDLQ WKDW LI D KH[DJUDP KDV QR


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

FKDQJLQJ OLQHV WKH GLYLQHU QHHG WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW QRW RQO\ WKH
MXGJPHQW EXW DOVR WKH &RPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH -XGJPHQW DQG WKH
RYHUDOO &RPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH ,PDJHV ,I DQ\ OLQHV DUH FKDQJLQJ
VSHFLDO DWWHQWLRQ VKRXOG EH JLYHQ WR WKH OLQH VWDWHPHQWV DQG
WKH &RPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH ,PDJHV SHUWDLQLQJ WR WKRVH OLQHV DV
ZHOO DV WR WKH MXGJPHQW WKH &RPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH -XGJPHQW
DQG WKH RYHUDOO &RPPHQWDU\ RQ WKH ,PDJHV RI WKH GHULYDWLYH
KH[DJUDP 6RPH <LMLQJ VSHFLDOLVWV DUJXH WKDW UHJDUGOHVV RI
KRZ PDQ\ OLQHV RI D KH[DJUDP KDYH FKDQJHG WKH GHULYDWLYH
KH[DJUDP VKRXOG EH WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW EXW RWKHUV PDLQWDLQ
WKDW D KH[DJUDP FDQQRW EH FRQVLGHUHG ಯWUDQVIRUPHGರ XQOHVV
WKUHH RU PRUH RI LWV OLQHV DUH HLWKHU ಯROG \DQJರ QLQH RU ಯROG
\LQರ VL[ 

)XUWKHUPRUH ZH NQRZ WKDW VRPH GLYLQHUV HPSKDVL]HG MXGJ


PHQWV H[FOXVLYHO\ ZKLOH RWKHUV SODFHG SULPDU\ HPSKDVLV RQ
WULJUDPV DQG WULJUDP UHODWLRQVKLSV LQFOXGLQJ QXFOHDU WULJUDPV
6WLOO RWKHUV IRFXVHG SULPDULO\ RQ OLQHV DQG OLQH VWDWHPHQWV
VRPHWLPHV LQ KLJKO\ LGLRV\QFUDWLF ZD\V IRU H[DPSOH WKH
ODWH 4LQJ GLYLQHU &KHQ 0DRKRX 椂㑚∾ DOZD\V HPSKDVL]HG
WKH ILIWK OLQH LQ DQ\ JLYHQ KH[DJUDP  $ QXPEHU RI GLYLQHUV
SDLG VSHFLDO DWWHQWLRQ WR ODWHUDOO\ OLQNHG OLQHV LQ ERWK WULJUDPV
DQG KH[DJUDPV DQG VRPH QDWXUDOO\ XVHG D FRPELQDWLRQ RI
WHFKQLTXHV

=KX ;LಬV XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH &KDQJHV EHFDPH VWDWH


RUWKRGR[\ IRU PXFK RI WKH <XDQ G\QDVW\  DQG IRU
YLUWXDOO\ DOO RI WKH 0LQJ  DQG 4LQJ 
G\QDVWLHV WKXV KLV RSLQLRQV RQ WKH FODVVLF ZHUH SRZHUIXOO\
UHLQIRUFHG E\ WKH FLYLO VHUYLFH H[DPLQDWLRQ V\VWHP 1RQHWKH


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

OHVV DV KDG EHHQ WKH FDVH ZLWK WKH VWDWHಬV VSRQVRUVKLS RI


:DQJ %LಬV LQWHUSUHWDWLRQV GXULQJ WKH 7DQJ DQG 6RQJ SHULRGV
=KXಬV YLHZV GLG QRW JR XQFKDOOHQJHG $OWKRXJK PDQ\
VFKRODUV QDWXUDOO\ IROORZHG WKH 6FKRRO RI 3ULQFLSOH VRPH GLG
QRW 2QFH VXFK LQGLYLGXDO <DQJ -LDQ 㯙亰   ZKR
DSSURDFKHG WKH &KDQJHV IURP WKH VWDQGSRLQW RI WKH 6FKRRO
RI WKH 0LQG ZDV VR KRVWLOH WR WKH LGHDV RI &KHQJ <L DQG =KX
;L WKDW KH UHSRUWHGO\ DYRLGHG HQWLUHO\ WKH WHUP ಯSULQFLSOHರ LQ
KLV ZULWLQJV

$QRWKHU <XDQ G\QDVW\ VFKRODU ;X +HQJ 峀嫰 ದ 


ZDV RQH RI WKH PRVW IDPRXV &KLQHVH VXSSRUWHUV RI WKH
0RQJROV DQG D SDUWLFXODUO\ SURPLQHQW DGYRFDWH RI =KX
;LಬV WKRXJKW +LV 'X <L VL\DQ 帏㢢䱐岏 3ULYDWH :RUGV RQ
5HDGLQJ WKH &KDQJHV LV QRW KRZHYHU DQ RYHUWO\ SROLWLFDO
WUDFW 5DWKHU LW IRFXVHV QDUURZO\ RQ WKH LQWHUSUHWLYH TXDOLWLHV
RU FDSDFLWLHV GH ㉆ RI WKH VL[ KH[DJUDP OLQHV ,Q JHQHUDO
;XಬV DSSURDFK LV WR HODERUDWH RQ FHUWDLQ LGHDV VXJJHVWHG E\
WKH ಯ*UHDW &RPPHQWDU\ರ VXFK DV WKH ZD\ OLQHV WKDW RFFXS\
GLIIHUHQW SRVLWLRQV FDQ KDYH D VLPLODU IXQFWLRQ WRQJJRQJ \LZHL
⚛┮䟿⇜ DQG WKH FRQGLWLRQV XQGHU ZKLFK \LQ OLQHV ZLOO IDLO
DQG \DQJ OLQHV ZLOO VXFFHHG URXZHL JDQJVKHQJ 㩣☀⓪╬ 
;X H[DPLQHV LQ SDUWLFXODU DOO RI WKH OLQHV RFFXS\LQJ WKH VL[WK
SRVLWLRQ RI HDFK KH[DJUDP FDWHJRUL]LQJ WKHP LQ WHUPV RI
TXDOLWLHV VXFK DV KHDOWK MLDQ ⋴  FRPSOLDQFH VKXQ 檕 
PRYHPHQW GRQJ ╤  VWRSSLQJ ]KL 㷱  HQWHULQJ UX ⏴ 
VSHDNLQJ VKXR 崹  SLWIDOOV [LDQ 椆  DQG EHDXW\ OL 焦  +H
DOVR VKRZV WKURXJK DQ DQDO\VLV RI WKH MXGJPHQWV WKH ಯ%LJ
,PDJH &RPPHQWDU\ರ DQG WKH ಯ6PDOO ,PDJH &RPPHQWDU\ರ
KRZ YDULDEOHV VXFK DV IRUWXQH DQG PLVIRUWXQH ML[LRQJ ⚘⒅


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

DQG UHPRUVH DQG UHJUHW KXLOLQ ㌣⚬ GHSHQG RQ WKH WLPLQJ


VKL 㣑 RI D VLWXDWLRQ DV GHVFULEHG E\ WKH OLQHV

2YHUDOO DV , KDYH WULHG WR DUJXH LQ )DWKRPLQJ WKH &RVPRV DQG


2UGHULQJ WKH :RUOG   GHVSLWH DYRZHG DOOHJLDQFHV WR
RQH RU DQRWKHU SKLORVRSKLFDO VFKRRO RU OR\DOW\ WR D SDUWLFXODU
WHDFKHU RU ODWHU DWWULEXWLRQV PRVW &KLQHVH VFKRODUV RI WKH
&KDQJHV WHQGHG WR EH HFOHFWLF HVSHFLDOO\ LQ ODWH LPSHULDO
WLPHV 7KXV WKH ERXQGDULHV EHWZHHQ WKH 6FKRRO RI 3ULQFLSOH
DQG WKH 6FKRRO RI WKH 0LQG OLNH WKRVH EHWZHHQ WKH 6FKRRO
RI 0HDQLQJV DQG 3ULQFLSOHV DQG WKH 6FKRRO RI ,PDJHV DQG
1XPEHUV SURYHG WR EH TXLWH SHUPHDEOH LQ SUDFWLFH :HL
/LDRZHQJ 淞ℕ剐 ದ  IRU H[DPSOH DGRSWHG WKH
VWUDWHJ\ RI ಯXVLQJ LPDJHV DQG QXPEHUV WR VHHN PHDQLQJV
DQG SULQFLSOHVರ \L [LDQJVKX TLX \LOL ⅴ廰㠇㻑券䚕  ;LDQJ
$QVKL 檔⸘₥ G  WULHG WR VXSSOHPHQW &KHQJ <LಬV
VLQJOHPLQGHG HPSKDVLV RQ PHDQLQJV DQG SULQFLSOHV ZLWK DQ
DQDO\VLV RI LPDJHV DQG QXPEHUV SODFLQJ VSHFLDO HPSKDVLV RQ
WKH LPDJHV RI DGYDQFH DQG UHWUHDW MLQWXL 拁抏  /L ;LQFKXDQ
㧝㉒⍂ ದ  IROORZLQJ LQ WKH IRRWVWHSV RI KLV IDWKHU
DWWHPSWLQJ D SDUWLFXODUO\ EURDG V\QWKHVLV RI WKH ZRUN RI :DQJ
%L =KDQJ =DL &KHQJ <L *XR <RQJ 捼楜 ದ  DQG
=KX ;L /RQJ 5HQIX 爜⅐⮺ IO FD   IRU KLV SDUW EDVHG
KLV =KRX\L ML]KXDQ &ROOHFWHG &RPPHQWDULHV RQ WKH =KRX
&KDQJHV ⛷㢢楕⍂ SULPDULO\ RQ WKH RSLQLRQV RI &KHQJ <L DQG
=KX ;L EXW KH EURNH QHZ JURXQG E\ JLYLQJ UDGLFDOO\ GLIIHUHQW
PHDQLQJV WR FHUWDLQ KH[DJUDPVಧUHGXFLQJ WKH FRPSOH[
V\PEROLVP RI .XQ KH[DJUDP  WR ಯVHWWOHGರ RU ಯDW SHDFHರ
DQ ⸘  RI =KXQ   WR ಯVROLGರ JX ⦉  RI %L   WR ಯMRLQ LQರ RU
ಯHQWHUರ UX ⏴  DQG RI =KHQ   WR ಯNLOOರ VKD 㹉 ಧPHDQLQJV


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

WKDW DOO GLIIHU VLJQLILFDQWO\ IURP WKH RQHV QRUPDOO\ DWWDFKHG WR


WKHVH KH[DJUDPV E\ YLUWXH RI WKHLU QDPHV DQG MXGJPHQWV

*UHDW <LMLQJ V\VWHPV EXLOGHUV QRWDEO\ /DL =KLGH ∕䩴㉆


  GUHZ IURP PDQ\ GLIIHUHQW VRXUFHV RI LQWHOOHFWXDO
LQVSLUDWLRQ LQFOXGLQJ QRW RQO\ -LQJ )DQJ LQ WKH +DQ DQG 6KDR
<RQJ DQG =KX ;L LQ WKH 6RQJ EXW DOVR FHUWDLQ %XGGKLVW
WKLQNHUV 6FKRODUV VXFK DV /LQ =KDR
HQ 㨦⏕㋸ 
DQG -LDR +RQJ 䎵䵠 F  GLVSOD\HG D VLPLODU
HFOHFWLFLVP 6FLHQWLILFDOO\PLQGHG LQGLYLGXDOV VXFK DV )DQJ
<L]KL 㡈ⅴ㤉  DQG -LDQJ <RQJ 㻮㻇 
  IRU WKHLU SDUW LQFRUSRUDWHG :HVWHUQ PDWKHPDWLFDO DQG
DVWURQRPLFDO LGHDV DV ZHOO DV D SURIRXQG XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI
WKH &KDQJHV LQWR WKHLU FUHDWLYH DQG PXOWLIDFHWHG VFKRODUVKLS

(YHQ GHYRXWO\ %XGGKLVW VFKRODUV OLNH 2X\L =KL[X 塤䥙㤉㡼


 GUHZ IUHHO\ IURP &RQIXFLDQ DQG RWKHU ZULWLQJV WR
PDNH WKHLU FDVH 7KH SUHIDFH WR =KL[XಬV $ &KDQ >=HQ@ ,QWHU
SUHWDWLRQ RI WKH =KRX &KDQJHV =KRX\L FKDQ]KHQ ⛷㢢桰䦮
LQGLFDWHV WKDW KLV SXUSRVH LQ H[SOLFDWLQJ WKH <LMLQJ LV ಯWR
LQWURGXFH &KDQ %XGGKLVP LQWR &RQIXFLDQLVP LQ RUGHU WR
HQWLFH &RQIXFLDQV WR NQRZ &KDQರ 1RW VXUSULVLQJO\ KLV ZRUN
FRQWDLQHG D JRRG GHDO RI SDUDGR[ WKXV KH GHVFULEHG LW DV
EHLQJ DERXW FKDQJH \L 㢢  QRQFKDQJH IHL\L 槭㢢  DQG
QHLWKHU FKDQJH QRU QRQFKDQJH OLW ಯQRW QRQFKDQJHರ IHLIHL
\L 槭槭㢢  7KH 'DRLVW FOHULF /LX <LPLQJ ┘₏㢝 
IRU KLV SDUW VRXJKW WR UHFRQFLOH &RQIXFLDQLVP DQG 'DRLVP E\
DUJXLQJ WKDW 'DRLVW LGHDV RI PHQWDO DQG DOFKHPLFDO UHILQHPHQW
ZHUH SHUIHFWO\ FRPSDWLEOH ZLWK &RQIXFLDQ QRWLRQV RI PRUDO
VHOIFXOWLYDWLRQ ,QGHHG DFFRUGLQJ WR /LXಬV ERRN (OXFLGDWLQJ


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

WKH 7UXWK RI WKH =KRX &KDQJHV =KRX\L FKDQ]KHQ ⛷㢢桰䦮 


WKH :D\ RI WKH &RQIXFLDQ VDJHV ZDV WKH VDPH DV WKH :D\ RI
WKH 'DRLVW LPPRUWDOV

7KH 4LQJ G\QDVW\  ZLWQHVVHG WKH ULVH WR SURPL


QHQFH RI D QHZ NLQG RI VFKRODUVKLS NQRZQ DV (YLGHQWLDO
6WXGLHV NDR]KHQJ [XH 劒巘⸇  ZKLFK VRXJKW WR ULG WKH &RQ
IXFLDQ FODVVLFV LQFOXGLQJ WKH <LMLQJ RI FRXUVH RI %XGGKLVW
DQG 'DRLVW DFFUHWLRQV ZKLFK VFKRODUV RI WKLV LQWHOOHFWXDO
SHUVXDVLRQ EODPHG RQ WKH ULVH RI 6RQJ 1HR&RQIXFLDQLVP
8VLQJ VRSKLVWLFDWHG SKLORORJLFDO WHFKQLTXHV WR H[SRVH
LQWHUSRODWLRQV DQG RWKHU GLVWRUWLRQV LQ ERWK ಯRULJLQDOರ WH[WV
DQG ODWHU FRPPHQWDULHV SLRQHHUV LQ (YLGHQWLDO 6WXGLHV VXFK
DV *X <DQZX 櫶䌝㷵   +XDQJ =RQJ[L 煒⸦剁
 DQG :DQJ )X]KL 䘚⮺⃚   DV ZHOO
DV ODWHU H[SRQHQWV RI WKHVH LQWHUSUHWLYH WHFKQLTXHV LQFOXGLQJ
0DR 4LOLQJ 㹪⯖燰   +X :HL 印䂼 
DQG +XL 'RQJ ㍯㭮   JHQHUDOO\ ORRNHG WR +DQ
G\QDVW\ PDWHULDOV IRU LQVSLUDWLRQ UDWKHU WKDQ WR 6RQJ G\QDVW\
VRXUFHV RQ WKH JURXQGV WKDW WKH\ ZHUH FORVHU WR WKH WLPH
RI &RQIXFLXV DQG HVVHQWLDOO\ IUHH IURP FRUURVLYH %XGGKLVW
DQG 5HOLJLRXV 'DRLVW LQIOXHQFHV 3UHGLFWDEO\ PRVW RI WKHVH
VFKRODUV FDVWLJDWHG =KX ;L IRU DWWDFKLQJ WKH <HOORZ 5LYHU
&KDUW DQG WKH /XR 5LYHU :ULWLQJ WR KLV ಯRUWKRGR[ರ ZULWLQJV RQ
WKH &KDQJHV WKXV OHJLWLPDWLQJ KLJKO\ GXELRXV GRFXPHQWV

+XDQJ =RQJ[L IRU H[DPSOH ILHUFHO\ DVVDLOHG 6KDR <RQJಬV


6XSUHPH 3ULQFLSOHV WKDW 5XOH WKH :RUOG DQG PRVW RWKHU
ZRUNV E\ LQGLYLGXDOV LGHQWLILHG DV H[SRQHQWV RI ಯLPDJHV DQG
QXPEHUVರ LQFOXGLQJ -LQJ )DQJ -LDR <DQVKRX DQG &KHQ


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

7XDQ ,Q KLV KLJKO\ LQIOXHQWLDO ERRN <L[XH [LDQJVKX OXQ


㢢⸇廰㠇嵥 'LVFXVVLRQ RI ,PDJHV DQG 1XPEHUV LQ &KDQJHV
6FKRODUVKLS +XDQJ GLVSDUDJHV WKH UHFHLYHG YHUVLRQV RI WKH
<HOORZ 5LYHU &KDUW DQG WKH /XR 5LYHU :ULWLQJ ZKLFK KH
FODLPV ODFN ಯKLVWRULFDO DXWKHQWLFLW\ರ DQG LV DW SDUWLFXODU SDLQV
WR GLVWLQJXLVK EHWZHHQ ಯFRUUHFWರ DQG ಯLQFRUUHFWರ LPDJHV ,Q
+XDQJಬV YLHZ WKH RQO\ DXWKHQWLF LPDJHV ZHUH  WKRVH
RI WKH HLJKW WULJUDPV ⏺◵⃚廰  WKRVH RI WKH VL[ OLQHV
⏼䓊⃚廰  WKRVH UHVHPEOLQJ WKLQJV 廰ㇱ⃚廰   WKRVH
VKRZLQJ WKH SRVLWLRQV RI WKH OLQHV 䓊⇜⃚廰   WKRVH LQGL
FDWLQJ KH[DJUDP RSSRVLWLRQ ♜⺜⃚廰   WKRVH LQGLFDWLQJ
GLUHFWLRQV 㡈⇜⃚廰  DQG  WKRVH LQGLFDWLQJ RYHUODSSLQJ
WULJUDPV ℡浣⃚廰  7KHVH VHYHQ ಯH[KDXVW DOO RI WKH LPDJHVರ
KH PDLQWDLQHG /DWHU VFKRODUV KRZHYHU FUHDWHG ZKDW +XDQJ
FDOOHG IDOVH LPDJHV LQFOXGLQJ WKRVH FRQQHFWHG ZLWK WKH QDMLD
侜䟁 V\VWHP ಯPRYLQJ OLQHVರ GRQJ\DR ╤䓊  ಯKH[DJUDP
FKDQJHVರ JXDELDQ ◵帙  DQG WKH VRFDOOHG )RUPHU +HDYHQ
FRQILJXUDWLRQV [LDQWLDQ ⏗⮸  7KHVH IRXU KH FODLPHG
ಯREVFXUHG WKH RULJLQDO VHYHQರ

/HW XV QRZ ORRN DW DQ H[DPSOH RI KRZ D (YLGHQWLDO 6WXGLHV


RULHQWHG 4LQJ VFKRODU PLJKW JORVV D SDVVDJH UHODWHG WR DQ
HDUO\ &KDQJHV GLYLQDWLRQ FRQVLGHU 0DR 4LOLQJಬV LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ
RI DQ DQHFGRWH IURP WKH =XR &RPPHQWDU\ಧ'XNH 0X RI 4LQಬV
SXQLWLYH H[SHGLWLRQ DJDLQVW 'XNH +XL RI -LQ LQ  %&( +HUH
LV WKH RULJLQDO VWRU\

%HIRUH WKH DWWDFN 'XNH 0X DVNHG KLV GLYLQHU 7XIX WR


FRQVXOW WKH &KDQJHV UHJDUGLQJ WKH RXWFRPH 7XIX VHOHFWHG
WKH KH[DJUDP *X QXPEHU  LQ WKH UHFHLYHG RUGHU VHH


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

LOOXVWUDWLRQ EHORZ  7KH MXGJPHQW RI WKLV KH[DJUDP UHDGV LQ


SDUW ಯ)DYRUDEOH IRU FURVVLQJ D ELJ ULYHUರ 7KH GLYLQHU WKXV
SUHGLFWHG YLFWRU\ LQ DSSDUHQWO\ H[WHPSRUDQHRXV UK\PHG
YHUVH  UHPDUNLQJ WKHUHDIWHU WKDW 'XNH 0XಬV WURRSV ZRXOG
FURVV WKH <HOORZ 5LYHU VHSDUDWLQJ 4LQ IURP -LQ GHIHDW WKH
IRUFHV RI 'XNH +XL DQG DUUHVW WKH GXNH +H H[SODLQHG WKDW
VLQFH WKH LQQHU ORZHU WULJUDP RI *X ZDV 6XQ :LQG  DQG
WKH RXWHU XSSHU RQH ZDV *HQ 0RXQWDLQ  WKH ZLQGV RI 4LQ
ZRXOG EORZ GRZQ WKH ಯIUXLWVರ RI -LQ RQ WKH PRXQWDLQ DQG WKHLU
DVVHWV ZRXOG EH VHL]HG 7KDW LV 4LQ ZRXOG SUHYDLO LQ WKH
VWUXJJOH

,I ZH WXUQ WR 0DR 4LOLQJಬV DQDO\VLV KRZHYHU ZKLFK UHIOHFWV


WKH REYLRXV OHJDF\ RI +DQVW\OH H[HJHVLV ZH VHH DQ DFFRXQW
WKDW GLIIHUV VXEVWDQWLDOO\ IURP WKH RULJLQDO H[SODQDWLRQ RIIHUHG
E\ 'XNH 0XಬV GLYLQHU 0DR EHJLQV E\ QRWLQJ WKDW WKH LGHD
RI ಯFURVVLQJ D ELJ ULYHUರ LQ WKH MXGJPHQW LV GHULYHG IURP WKH
ORZHU IRXU OLQHV RI *X ZKLFK UHVHPEOH WKH .DQ WULJUDP WKH
V\PERO RI ZDWHU LQDVPXFK DV WKH\ FRQVLVW RI D SDLU RI \DQJ
OLQHV FRQWDLQHG EHWZHHQ WZR \LQ OLQHV ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV 0DR
LQWHUSUHWV WKH IRXU ORZHVW OLQHV YLVXDOO\ DV LI WKH\ ZHUH WKUHH
6HFRQGO\ KH SRLQWV RXW WKDW WKH XSSHU QXFOHDU WULJUDP RI
*XಧWKDW LV OLQHV   DQG ಧLV =KHQ ZKLFK LV QRW RQO\
WKH V\PERO RI D IHXGDO ORUG EXW DOVR WKDW RI DQ XSWXUQHG
ERZO ZKLFK UHVHPEOHV WKH ERG\ RI D FKDULRW 6LQFH WKH
XSSHU SULPDU\ WULJUDP *HQ LV =KHQ WXUQHG XSVLGH GRZQ
WKLV LQGLFDWHV WKH RYHUWKURZ RI 'XNH +XL $QG EHFDXVH
*HQ V\PEROL]HV ERWK WKH KDQGV DQG WKH LGHD RI VWRSSDJH
DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH ([SODLQLQJ WKH 7ULJUDPV FRPPHQWDU\  WKH
PHDQLQJ FRQYH\HG LV WKH DUUHVW RI 'XNH +XL 7KLV QRWLRQ LV


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

UHLQIRUFHG E\ FRQVLGHUDWLRQ RI WKH KH[DJUDP 6XL QXPEHU  


WKH RSSRVLWH RI *X LQ ZKLFK WKH OLQH UHDGLQJV UHIHU UHSHDWHGO\
WR W\LQJ VRPHRQH XS SUHVXPDEO\ 'XNH +XL

)LJXUH  *X )LJXUH  6XL

:H FDQ QRZ IDVWIRUZDUG WR  ,Q WKDW \HDU DV SDUW RI


D UHIRUP PRYHPHQW GHVLJQHG WR ಯPRGHUQL]Hರ &KLQD LQ WKH
DIWHUPDWK RI WKH GLVDVWURXV 6LQR-DSDQHVH :DU RI 
WKH 4LQJ JRYHUQPHQW DEROLVKHG WKH FLYLO VHUYLFH H[DPLQDWLRQ
V\VWHP ZKLFK KDG UHLQIRUFHG &KHQJ=KX RUWKRGR[\ DQG
WKH DXWKRULW\ RI WKH <LMLQJ DQG RWKHU &RQIXFLDQ FODVVLFV IRU
QHDUO\ VHYHQ KXQGUHG \HDUV /HVV WKDQ D GHFDGH ODWHU WKH
4LQJ G\QDVW\ LWVHOI IHOO WR UHSXEOLFDQ UHYROXWLRQ HQGLQJ DQ\
VHPEODQFH RI RIILFLDO SDWURQDJH RI FODVVLFDO VFKRODUVKLS

,Q WKLV QHZ SRVWLPSHULDO HQYLURQPHQW DV LQ HDUOLHU SHULRGV


VWXGLHV RI WKH &KDQJHV IROORZHG WKH JHQHUDO FRQWRXUV RI
&KLQHVH SROLWLFDO VRFLDO DQG LQWHOOHFWXDO OLIH )RU DZKLOH
VRPH FODVVLFDOO\ WUDLQHG &KLQHVH VFKRODUV FRQWLQXHG WR XVH
H[HJHVLV RI WKH <LMLQJ WR GLVSOD\ WKHLU HUXGLWLRQ DQG D IHZ
ಯWUDGLWLRQPLQGHGರ LQGLYLGXDOV VWLOO YLHZHG WKH GRFXPHQW DV
D VDFUHG VFULSWXUH $W OHDVW RQH VFKRODU :DQJ ;LDQJ[XDQ
䘚⚠䘓 IO   HYHQ ZURWH D V\QFUHWLF ERRN LQ &KLQHVH
WLWOHG 8QLW\ RI WKH &KDQJHV <LWRQJ 㢢倀  LQ ZKLFK KH


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

DWWHPSWHG WR UHFRQFLOH &RQIXFLDQLVP 'DRLVP %XGGKLVP


,VODP -XGDLVP DQG &KULVWLDQLW\ %XW LQFUHDVLQJO\ &KLQHVH
LQWHOOHFWXDOV FDPH WR YLHZ WKH <LMLQJ DV VLPSO\ DQ KLVWRULFDO
DUWLIDFWಧRQH WKDW KDG QR SUDFWLFDO RU VSLULWXDO YDOXH IRU
FRQWHPSRUDU\ &KLQHVH VRFLHW\ &RQWULEXWLQJ PLJKWLO\ WR WKLV
VHOIFRQVFLRXVO\ ಯVHFXODUರ DSSURDFK WR WKH &KDQJHV ZDV D
EXUVW RI &KLQHVH VFKRODUVKLS EDVHG RQ QHZ DUFKDHRORJLFDO
GLVFRYHULHV DQG D QHZIRXQG IDVFLQDWLRQ ZLWK WKH ಯVFLHQWLILF
PHWKRGರ

*XR 0RUXRಬV 捼㼺啴  VWXGLHV RI WKH <LMLQJ


EHJLQQLQJ ZLWK KLV FHOHEUDWHG  DUWLFOH ಯ/LIH DQG 6RFLHW\
LQ WKH (UD RI WKH =KRX &KDQJHVರ PDUNHG WKH EHJLQQLQJ
RI D ORQJ SHULRG LQ &KLQD GXULQJ ZKLFK 0DU[LVW FDWHJRULHV
DQG FRQFHUQV SOD\HG D PDMRU UROH LQ WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH
<LMLQJ 6RRQ WKHUHDIWHU KXPDQLVWLF RSSRQHQWV RI 0DU[LVW
PDWHULDOLVP LQFOXGLQJ ;LRQJ 6KLOL 䐙◐┪  DQG
)DQJ 'RQJPHL 㡈㨀初   EHJDQ WR FKDPSLRQ
WKH &KDQJHV DV D PHDQV RI UHYLWDOL]LQJ WUDGLWLRQDO &KLQHVH
WKRXJKW &RQIXFLDQLVP LQ SDUWLFXODU

)ROORZLQJ WKH HVWDEOLVKPHQW RI WKH 3HRSOHಬV 5HSXEOLF RI &KLQD


LQ  DQG XQWLO  WKLV LQWHOOHFWXDO VWUXJJOH SHUVLVWHG
DV SDUW RI WKH ODUJHU SROLWLFDO ULYDOU\ EHWZHHQ WKH &KLQHVH
0DLQODQG DQG 7DLZDQ %XW LQWHOOHFWXDO OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ LQ WKH
35& DIWHU  YDVWO\ H[SDQGHG WKH LQWHUSUHWLYH SDUDPHWHUV
RI <LMLQJ VFKRODUVKLS DV ZHOO DV WKH VFRSH RI PRUH SRSXODU
ZULWLQJ &RQIXFLDQLVP DQG WR D OHVVHU GHJUHH %XGGKLVP DQG
'DRLVP ZDV QR ORQJHU D GLUW\ ZRUG RQ WKH 0DLQODQG DQG
WKH SDVW LQFUHDVLQJO\ VHHPHG DW OHDVW SRVVLEO\ UHOHYDQW WR WKH


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

&KLQHVH SUHVHQW DQG IXWXUH $V D UHVXOW IURP WKH V WR


WRGD\ WKHUH KDV EHHQ D VXUJH RI LQWHUHVW LQ WKH &KDQJHV RQ
ERWK VLGHV RI WKH 7DLZDQ 6WUDLW XQSUHFHGHQWHG VLQFH WKH 4LQJ
G\QDVW\

2QH RI WKH PRVW LQWHUHVWLQJ IHDWXUHV RI FRQWHPSRUDU\ ZULWLQJ


RQ WKH <LMLQJಧLQ DGGLWLRQ WR D KXJH RXWSRXULQJ RI WUDGLWLRQDO
VW\OH H[HJHWLFDO ZRUNಧKDV EHHQ DQ HIIRUW E\ D QXPEHU
RI &KLQHVH VFKRODUV DQG D IHZ :HVWHUQ RQHV WR H[SORUH
SRVVLEOH FRQQHFWLRQV EHWZHHQ WKH &KDQJHV DQG PRGHUQ
VFLHQWLILF LGHDV IURP OLQHDU DOJHEUD DQG TXDQWXP PHFKDQLFV
WR WKH ILHOGV RI PROHFXODU ELRORJ\ DQG FRPSXWHU FRGLQJ 7KXV
ZH KDYH LQGLYLGXDOV VXFK DV <DQJ /L 㯙┪ DUJXLQJ LQ WKH
VDPH EDVLF YHLQ DV )DQJ <L]KL DQG -LDQJ <RQJ LQ WKH 4LQJ
SHULRG WKDW WKH QXPEHUV RI WKH <HOORZ 5LYHU &KDUW DQG WKH
/XR 5LYHU :ULWLQJ DUH ಯWKH GHULYLQJ FRHIILFLHQWರ RI HYHU\WKLQJ
LQ WKH FRVPRV 6LPLODUO\ )HQJ <RXODQ 氽♚墼 FRQWHQGV
WKDW WKH <LMLQJ FRQWDLQV DQ LQFLSLHQW ಯDOJHEUD RI WKH XQLYHUVHರ
;LH 4LXFKHQJ 嶬㻑㒟 PDLQWDLQV WKDW WKH KH[DJUDPV RI WKH
FODVVLF ZHUH RULJLQDOO\ GHVLJQHG DV D KLJK HIILFLHQF\ LQIRUPD
WLRQ WUDQVIHU V\VWHP DQDORJRXV WR FRQWHPSRUDU\ FRPSXWHU
FRGLQJ EDVHG RQ RSWLPDO XQLWV RI WZR WKH QXPEHU RI EDVLF
WULJUDPV LQ HDFK KH[DJUDP DQG WKUHH WKH QXPEHU RI OLQHV
LQ HDFK WULJUDP  DQG 7DQJ 0LQJEDQJ ➟㢝挵  GUDZLQJ RQ
WKH ZULWLQJV RI ;LH DQG RWKHU FRQWHPSRUDU\ &KLQHVH VFKRODUV
DVVHUWV WKDW WKH IRUPV RI DWRPLF VWUXFWXUH LQ QXFOHDU SK\VLFV
DV ZHOO DV WKH JHQHWLF FRGH LQ PROHFXODU ELRORJ\ DQG WKH
HLJKWWLHU PDWUL[ LQ OLQHDU DOJHEUD DOO VHHP WR EH UHODWHG WR WKH
ORJLF RI WKH &KDQJHV $OWKRXJK WKLV VRUW RI WKLQNLQJ UHPDLQV
HVVHQWLDOO\ FRUUHODWLYH LW KDV EHHQ QRQHWKHOHVV VDWLVI\LQJ IRU


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

&KLQHVH VFKRODUV ZKR KDYH ORQJ EHHQ DFFXVWRPHG WR WKH


YLHZ WKDW ಯPRGHUQರ VFLHQFH KDG VRPHKRZ SDVVHG &KLQD E\

*QM+Hm/BM; _2K`Fb
$V , KDYH WULHG WR VKRZ WKH <LMLQJ KHUPHQHXWLFDO DQG
GLYLQDWRU\ WUDGLWLRQ DOORZHG DQG HYHQ HQFRXUDJHG DQ H[
WUDRUGLQDULO\ ZLGH DOPRVW XQLPDJLQDEOH UDQJH RI LQWHUSUHWLYH
WHFKQLTXHV DQG WKH H[SUHVVLRQ RI D JUHDW PDQ\ GLIIHUHQW SKLOR
VRSKLFDO YLHZSRLQWV $W WKH VDPH WLPH KRZHYHU WKURXJKRXW
WKH LPSHULDO HUD FRPPHQWDULHV VKDSHG WKH FRQWRXUV RI
LQWHUSUHWDWLRQVಧHVSHFLDOO\ LI WKH\ ZHUH HQGRUVHG E\ WKH
&KLQHVH VWDWH $V ZH KDYH VHHQ :DQJ %LಬV LQWHUSUHWDWLRQV
ZHUH FRQVLGHUHG ಯRUWKRGR[ರ IRU PXFK RI WKH 7DQJ DQG 6RQJ
G\QDVWLHV DQG WKH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQV RI &KHQJ <L DQG =KX ;L
EHFDPH RIILFLDO RUWKRGR[\ GXULQJ PXFK RI WKH <XDQ 0LQJ
DQG 4LQJ SHULRGV 7KXV DOWKRXJK D ZRUN OLNH /L *XDQJGLಬV
㧝⏘⦿  LPSHULDOO\ VSRQVRUHG %DODQFHG &RP
SHQGLXP RQ WKH =KRX &KDQJHV =KRX\L ]KH]KRQJ ⛷㢢㔧₼
 LQFOXGHG D EURDG UDQJH RI VFKRODUO\ FRPPHQWDULHV RQ
WKH <LMLQJಧHLJKWHHQ IURP WKH +DQ G\QDVW\ ILYH IURP WKH 6L[
'\QDVWLHV SHULRG RQH IURP WKH 6XL HOHYHQ IURP WKH 7DQJ
QLQHW\HLJKW IURP WKH 6RQJ WZR IURP WKH -LQ WZHQW\WZR IURP
WKH <XDQ DQG VL[W\RQH IURP WKH 0LQJಧLW VWLOO HPSKDVL]HG
WKH VWDWHಬV &KHQJ=KX RUWKRGR[\

$QRWKHU GHYLFH IRU HQFRXUDJLQJ D FHUWDLQ GHJUHH RI LQWHUSUH


WLYH XQLIRUPLW\ LQ &KDQJHV VWXGLHV ZDV WKH ಯSULPHUರಧWKDW LV D
ZRUN GHVLJQHG H[SOLFLWO\ IRU ಯEHJLQQLQJರ VWXGHQWV ,W LV GLIILFXOW


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

WR NQRZ KRZ SUHYDOHQW VXFK ZRUNV ZHUH LQ ODWH LPSHULDO


&KLQD *HQHUDOO\ VSHDNLQJ WKH\ GR QRW DSSHDU LQ PRVW
OLEUDU\ DQG DUFKLYDO FROOHFWLRQV RI <LMLQJ PDWHULDOV ZKLFK WHQG
WR HPSKDVL]H ZRUNV WKDW IRFXV RQ VRSKLVWLFDWHG VFKRODUO\
GHEDWHV DQG ILQHWXQHG KLVWRULFDO DQG SKLORORJLFDO DQDO\VHV
6RPH ZRUNV RQ WKH &KDQJHV GR KDYH D [X]KL 檗䩴 ಯPXVW
NQRZರ VHFWLRQ RQ YDULRXV WHUPV FRQFHSWV DQG LOOXVWUDWLRQV
EXW UHODWLYHO\ IHZ KDYH DQ H[SUHVVO\ GLGDFWLF WRQH

7KH PRVW LQWHUHVWLQJ ಯSULPHUVರ IURP WKH LPSHULDO HUD WKDW


, KDYH H[DPLQHG LQ WKH FRXUVH RI P\ UHVHDUFK RQ WKH
&KDQJHV DUH ORFDWHG LQ WKH &KLQHVH &ROOHFWLRQ RI WKH 9DWLFDQ
$UFKLYHV VRPH RI ZKLFK KDYH H[WHQVLYH DQQRWDWLRQV LQ
)UHQFK DQGRU /DWLQ $ SDUWLFXODUO\ IDVFLQDWLQJ H[DPSOH RI
RQH RI WKHVH ಯSULPHUVರ LV DQ XQGDWHG VL[ MXDQ ZRUN E\ WKH
IDPRXV ODWH0LQJ OR\DOLVW +XDQJ &KXQ\DR 煒䂂劏 ದ
  DND +XDQJ <XQVKHQJ 煒墙䞮 7KH WLWOH RI WKH ERRN
LV <LMLQJ \LMLDQ QHQJMLH 㢢倢₏尚厌屲  RU 8QGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH
<LMLQJ DW D *ODQFHಧKHUHDIWHU 8QGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH &KDQJHV 
2YHU WLPH WKLV KLJKO\ LQIOXHQWLDO ZRUN ZDV SXEOLVKHG LQ
D YDULHW\ RI HGLWLRQV ERDVWLQJ PDQ\ GLIIHUHQW WLWOHV LQ
FOXGLQJ ⬭孫㢢倢嶪 ㎞₏尚厌屲 䪂䂯栳㠿暺⛷㢢ㄋ⸇厌屲
㠿晇⬭孫⛷㢢⌨㡷₏尚厌屲 ⛷㢢⌨㡷厌屶 㢢倢⌨㡷厌屲
⛷㢢⌨㡷₏尚厌屲 㢢倢孫㽷⨎劒⌨㡷 㢢倢⌨㡷 HWF

)RU WKH PRVW SDUW 8QGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH &KDQJHV HVFKHZV


VFKRODUO\ GHEDWHV DQG WKH ILQH SRLQWV RI SKLORORJ\ LQ IDYRU
RI VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG PRUDO DQG SUDFWLFDO DGYLFH EDVHG VROLGO\
RQ &KHQJ=KX QHR&RQIXFLDQLVP +XDQJ VHHPV SDUWLFXODUO\
WDNHQ E\ &KHQJ <LಬV HPSKDVLV RQ VHOIFXOWLYDWLRQ  7KH


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

ERRN EHJLQV ZLWK D SUHOLPLQDU\ GLVFXVVLRQ RI ZK\ WKH EDVLF


WH[W LV GLYLGHG LQWR WZR XQHTXDO SDUWV 7KHUH DUH VHYHUDO
H[SODQDWLRQV EXW +XDQJಬV ERRN RIIHUV RQO\ RQH EDVHG RQ
WKH PHWDSK\VLFDO DQG V\PEROLF OLQNV EHWZHHQ WKH KH[DJUDPV
UHSUHVHQWLQJ +HDYHQ DQG (DUWK ℍ⧳  \LQ DQG \DQJ ⧝楱 
KXVEDQGV DQG ZLYHV ❇㋕  DQG FRPSOHWLRQ 㡱䉮 DQG
LQFRPSOHWLRQ 㦹䉮 

+XDQJ JRHV RQ WR SURYLGH V\VWHPDWLF H[SRVLWLRQV RQ \LQ\DQJ


FRVPRORJ\ YDULRXV FKDUWV DQG RWKHU H[SODQDWRU\ GHYLFHV
WKH +HWX /XRVKX 7DLML WX GHSLFWLRQV RI WULJUDP VHTXHQFHV
HWF DV ZHOO DV LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH ULWXDOV RI PLOIRLO GLYLQDWLRQ
DQG UXOHV IRU LQWHUSUHWLQJ WKH UHVXOW =KX ;LಬV LQ ERWK FDVHV 
7KH UHVW RI WKH ERRN LV GHYRWHG WR DQ DQDO\VLV RI WKH VL[W\IRXU
KH[DJUDPV DQG WKH 7HQ :LQJV 3HULRGLFDOO\ LQ DGGLWLRQ WR
FRQYHQWLRQDO FRPPHQWDULHV WKH DXWKRU SURYLGHV VSHFLDOO\
PDUNHG LQVHUWV WLWOHG ಯPHDQLQJVರ ]KL 㡷 DQG ಯH[SODQDWLRQVರ
MLDQJ 嶪  GHVLJQHG WR RIIHU IXUWKHU JXLGDQFH LQ LQWHUSUHWLQJ
WKH YDULRXV FRPSRQHQWV RI HDFK KH[DJUDP 2IWHQ WKH DGYLFH
LV H[WUDRUGLQDULO\ VLPSOH DQG VWUDLJKWIRUZDUGಧZKLFK PXVW
KDYH EHHQ D JUHDW UHOLHI WR WKH -HVXLWV

)RU H[DPSOH 8QGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH &KDQJHV H[SODLQV WKH ILUVW


KH[DJUDP 4LDQ LQ WKH IROORZLQJ ZD\

4LDQ LV WKH QDPH RI +HDYHQ ℍ劔⮸⃚⚜


>$V WR WKH IRXU FKDUDFWHUV RI WKH MXGJPHQW@
<XDQ PHDQV JUHDW ⮶  +HQJ PHDQV SHQHWUDWLQJ
抩  /L PHDQV DSSURSULDWHILWWLQJ ⸫  =KHQ PHDQV
FRUUHFW DQG VROLGILUP 㷲力⦉⃮


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

6LPLODUO\ WKH JORVV IRU WKH ILUVW IRXU FKDUDFWHUV RI WKH &RP
PHQWDU\ RQ WKH >%LJ@ ,PDJH IRU KH[DJUDP QXPEHU  'D\RX
ZKLFK VWDWH WKDW ಯ)LUH RQ WKH WRS RI +HDYHQ FRQVWLWXWHV WKH
LPDJH RI 'D\RXರ UHDGV
ಯ)LUHರ UHIHUV WR WKH VXQ ⮹椌 
ಯ2Q WKH WRS RI +HDYHQರ PHDQV WKDW ಯWKHUH LV QR
WKLQJ WKDW LV QRW LOOXPLQDWHGರ 㡯䓸ₜ䏶 
7KXV WKH LPDJH RI 'D\RX 㟔䍉⮶㦘⃚廰
,Q WKH FDVH RI WKH MXGJPHQW IRU WKH 4LDQ KH[DJUDP QXPEHU
  +XDQJ H[SODLQV WKDW WKH FRPPRQ WHUP MXQ]L ⚪⷟ VLPSO\
PHDQV ಯD SHUVRQ RI YLUWXHರ 㦘㉆䤓ⅉ 

2I SDUWLFXODU YDOXH WR QRYLFHV ZHUH WKH H[SODQDWLRQV RI


WHFKQLFDO WHUPV RI WKH VRUW , KDYH ORRNHG DW EULHIO\ LQ WKH
SUHYLRXV VHFWLRQV RI WKLV SDSHU )RU LQVWDQFH LQ WKH MXGJPHQW
RI WKH )X KH[DJUDP QXPEHU   WKH H[SUHVVLRQ ZXMLX 㡰✝ 
XVXDOO\ XQGHUVWRRG DV ಯQR EODPHರ RU ಯQR UHJUHWರ LV JORVVHG ಯQR
LQMXU\ರ 㡰㸒⹂⃮  EXW LQ )XಬV WKLUG OLQH VWDWHPHQW WKH VDPH
WHUP ZXMLX LV H[SODLQHG DV D SKUDVH RI ಯHQFRXUDJHPHQWರ
▇⃚⃚戼  :KHQ ZH HQFRXQWHU ZXMLX LQ WKH OLQH VWDWHPHQWV
RI RWKHU KH[DJUDPV 8QGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH &KDQJHV RIIHUV XV
DGGLWLRQDO LQWHUSUHWDWLYH JXLGHOLQHV )RU H[DPSOH LQ WKH ILUVW
OLQH VWDWHPHQW RI WKH *HQ KH[DJUDP QXPEHU   ZKLFK
EHJLQV ಯ5HVWUDLQW WDNHV SODFH ZLWK WKH WRHV QR EODPHUHJUHW
哽␅恍㡰✝  WKH JORVV IRU ZXMLX UHDGV ಯWKLV >FRXQVHOV
DJDLQVW WKH EODPHUHJUHW WKDW FRPHV IURP@ UHFNOHVV DFWLRQರ
㡰╤  DQG LQ WKH IRXUWK OLQH VWDWHPHQW ZKLFK UHDGV ಯ5HVWUDLQW
WDNHV SODFH ZLWK WKH WRUVR QR EODPHUHJUHW 哽␅愺㡰✝  WKH
JORVV WHOOV XV WKDW ಯ7KLV >FRXQVHOV DJDLQVW WKH EODPHUHJUHW
WKDW FRPHV IURP EHLQJ@ ERXQG E\ PDWHULDO WKLQJVರ 䓸侾 


.H\ &RQFHSWV RI )DWH DQG 3UHGLFWLRQ LQ WKH <LMLQJ

1DWXUDOO\ WKH 7HQ :LQJV FRPH LQ IRU HVSHFLDOO\ FORVH VFUXWLQ\


LQ 8QGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH &KDQJHVಧWKH *UHDW &RPPHQWDU\ LQ
SDUWLFXODU (YHU\ IHZ ZRUGV HOLFLW DQ H[SODQDWLRQ %XW WKH
H[SODQDWLRQV DUH RQ WKH ZKROH YHU\ VLPSOH )RU LQVWDQFH
ZKHQ ZH ILUVW HQFRXQWHU D GLVFXVVLRQ RI LPDJHV [LDQJ 廰 
ZH DUH WROG RQO\ WKDW ಯWKH ZRUG ಫLPDJHಬ UHIHUV WR WKH VL[W\IRXU
KH[DJUDPV HVWDEOLVKHG E\ )X[Lರ $QG ZKHQ WKH WH[W GLVFXVVHV
ಯVSLULWರ VKHQ 䯭  ZH OHDUQ WKDW WKLV UHIHUV VLPSO\ WR ಯWKH ZD\
4LDQ DQG .XQ EULQJ WKLQJV WR FRPSOHWLRQ ZLWKRXW LQWHQWLRQ
ZX[LQ 㡯㉒ ರ $QG VR RQ

,Q VKRUW 8QGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH &KDQJHV SUHVHQWV WKH UHDGHU


ZLWK D FRPSUHKHQVLYH FRPIRUWLQJ DQG FRPSOHWHO\ RUWKRGR[
DSSUHFLDWLRQ RI WKH <LMLQJಧD VROLG IRXQGDWLRQ IRU IXWXUH VWXG\
/LWWOH GLG WKH QHRSK\WH UHDGHU NQRZ ZKDW ZDV LQ VWRUH IRU KLP
RU KHU GRZQ WKH URDG



You might also like